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The 2004 amateur draft did not go as planned for the Toronto Blue Jays. Under the watchful eye of then general manager J.P. Ricciardi, the club followed a college-player-heavy approach (47 of the 52 picks came from a four-year or community college). The club had two first round picks that season, as well as an extra third-round selection. With its first two choices, the organization nabbed two college left-handed starting pitchers: David Purcey out of the University of Oklahoma and Zach Jackson out of Texas A&M University. Purcey was traded today to the Oakland Athletics for former Jays prospect and triple-A reliever Danny Farquhar.


Although similar on the surface, they were very different pitchers. Purcey was a junior in college who had failed to sign with the Yankees the year before after being selected in the 17th round as a draft-eligible sophomore. He was known as a one-pitch pitcher - a plus velocity fastball - with below-average command. Jackson was a junior in college with an average-at-best fastball but a better overall repertoire and potentially-plus control. If you were to dream on Purcey, his future was that of a No. 2 starter or closer, while Jackson was more of a No. 3 starter in a perfect world. Both were expected to move fairly quickly.

David Purcey

Purcey began the 2005 season in high-A after being given an aggressive assignment to begin his first full season in the Majors. He pitched OK and received a late-season promotion despite showing a lack of control (5.3 BB/9). The lefty then split the '06 season between double-A and triple-A while, again, showing poor control and, at times, becoming a one-pitch pitcher and failing to really develop his secondary pitches. He went backwards in '07 and battled injuries while making just 11 starts in double-A.

After showing the best control numbers of his career at triple-A in '08, Purcey received his first taste of the Majors but the results were mixed. He then bounced between triple-A and the Majors until 2011 - and also moved to the bullpen - when his options ran out.  Toronto's patience also ran out in '11 and he was recently designated for assignment and was just traded for a relief prospect - Danny Farquhar - who could easily eventually surpass Purcey's value.. Over the span of his MLB career with Toronto, Purcey accumulated a WAR rating of just 1.3 (WAR = Wins Above Replacement level value player).

Zach Jackson

Jackson, like Purcey, began the '05 season in high-A Dunedin but he reached triple-A by the end of the season. Unfortunately, he's spent the past five seasons playing the majority of his ball in triple-A and has yet to secure a full-time gig in the Majors. The lefty was used in a trade with Milwaukee in 2005 to acquire Lyle Overbay and Ty Taubenheim. Jackson never did pitch in the Majors for Toronto but he's brought in a total of 0.6 WAR for two MLB teams (Milwaukee and Cleveland) over the span of three partial seasons. He's currently pitching for Texas' triple-A squad.

Considering both Purcey and Jackson, Toronto received just 1.3 WAR of value for the two first round picks from 2004.

Taking a quick peek at the rest of the '04 draft, the Jays swung and missed on the second round selection (Curtis Thigpen out of the University of Texas), as well. Taking before the likes of Jason Jaramillo (Philadelphia) and Kurt Suzuki (Oakland), both of whom were ranked ahead of the Toronto draft pick prior to the draft by Baseball America, Thigpen is already out of baseball. Suzuki is the starting catcher in Oakland, while Jaramillo has ridden the triple-A/MLB shuttle throughout his career. In total, the Jays received a -0.3 WAR value from the second round selection during his two-year MLB career. Prior to '11, Jaramillo had provided 0.3 WAR over his career, while Suzuki came in at 8.3 WAR.

Adam Lind and Casey Janssen

The club's two best selections of '04 came with the third and fourth rounds when the team nabbed first baseman Adam Lind out of the University of South Alabama, and pitcher Casey Janssen out of UCLA. Lind reached the Majors in 2006, just two seasons after being drafted. Despite his recent struggles, he's accumulated a WAR value of 4.0 in parts of six seasons. Considered the sixth best prospect in Alabama at the time of his selection, Baseball America said his about him:

"He's put together a consistent career for South Alabama, posting nearly identical seasons and showing a fluid stroke with good bat speed and raw power potential... Lind isn't a great athlete, making him a fringy defender in left field and better suited for first base."

For the record, Lind has developed into the best player from that Alabama draft class, surpassing left-hander and first round selection Taylor Tankersley, who was drafted (and flamed out) by the Florida Marlins. Lind has also developed better than roughly 22-24 of the players drafted in the first round of '04.

Janssen was a two-way player in college and did not focus on pitching until his senior year in college. Prior to the draft, he was considered to be the 22nd best prospect in southern California, by Baseball America. According to the publication in '04:

"He gave up hitting this season, and the lesser workload paid immediate dividends as went 9-4, 3.40 after entering the season with a 5.28 career ERA. He has slightly better stuff... a harder fastball that at times touches 92 mph. His slider and changeup improved, and he commanded all his pitches well. He walked just 29 in 109 innings, while striking out 96."

As we know, Janssen has found success at the MLB level as a reliever. Despite battling serious injuries in 2008-09, the right-hander has accumulated 3.0 WAR value to this point in his career. The only other fourth rounder to have a significant MLB impact at this point is Colorado catcher Chris Iannetta (7.5 WAR), who was nabbed out of the University of North Carolina.

Revisiting David Purcey and the 2004 Draft | 17 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Monday, April 18 2011 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#232944) #
Jesse Litsch was drafted in the 17th round of the 2004 draft.  My take-away from the draft is that we still don't know yet whether it was a good draft or not. 

The players who the Jays (and everyone but the Red Sox and A's) missed on that year in the early rounds were Dustin Pedroia and Kurt Suzuki, college players at premium positions with "Moneyball" skills.  They were both perceived to be "low-upside" players.


Kelekin - Monday, April 18 2011 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#232954) #
The player I am most disappointed with not panning out from the 2004 draft would be Chip Cannon.  He had a fantastic name for a 1st baseman (and/or porn star). I will always remember him tearing through Lansing and Dunedin (1.295 OPS in Dunedin with 14 HR in only 29 games).

As far as the Purcey trade goes, I am happy to have Farquhar back and I am sure he will fill a role for us in the bullpen in 2012.
Matthew E - Monday, April 18 2011 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#232957) #
Chip Cannon.  He had a fantastic name for a 1st baseman

To me it sounds like something vendors use from down on the field between the third and fourth innings.
Gerry - Monday, April 18 2011 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#232958) #
Mike MacDonald was the 15th round pick in that draft.  MacDonald is back in the organization and is pitching for Las Vegas.
bpoz - Monday, April 18 2011 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#232966) #
Janssen, Lind & Litsch. I think Purcey will make a decent reliever.
So is that a decent draft?
Mike Green - Monday, April 18 2011 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#232968) #
It depends on Lind and Litsch.  If Litsch ends up giving you 200 innings of league-average pitching for a couple of more years, and Lind is an above-average first baseman for a couple more years, that will have been a good draft, bearing in mind that the club did not have a top 10 pick.  In addition to Suzuki and Pedroia, the other player chosen in the top 2 rounds after Purcey who has made it significantly is Gallardo. 
hypobole - Monday, April 18 2011 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#232974) #
By WAR, Hunter Pence beats both Suzuki and Gallardo, with Huston Street between them. And a late bloomer is Gio Gonzalez taken between the 1st and 2nd rounds.
bpoz - Monday, April 18 2011 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#232976) #
I think I get what you are saying MG. That any draft year is deemed successful if even only 1 player is really good.
Like Halladay or Carpenter made their draft year a success even if that year produced nothing else.
85bluejay - Monday, April 18 2011 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#232978) #
Who needs those High risk & take too long to develop prep arms like Gallardo/Gonzalez/Hughes & besides the Jays would now be stuck with having to pay them millions of $$ 
Magpie - Monday, April 18 2011 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#232979) #
They were both perceived to be "low-upside" players.

College players...low upside... I wonder if anyone said that about Lou Gehrig? Or Eddie Collins? Or Jackie Robinson? Or Mike Schmidt? Or Reggie Jackson? Or Barry Bonds....
92-93 - Monday, April 18 2011 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#232982) #
Their perceived upside had more to do with their bodies than their level of education.
Magpie - Monday, April 18 2011 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#232992) #
I'm sure you're right, but there have been so many outstanding players with 'bad bodies', from Yogi to Kirby, that you might think that might be reconsidered as well...
cybercavalier - Monday, April 18 2011 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#232997) #
As far as the Purcey trade goes, I am happy to have Farquhar back and I am sure he will fill a role for us in the bullpen in 2012.

That exactly the Jays did. Toronto traded LHP Purcey to Athletics and Sacramento traded Farquhar to 51s.
VBF - Monday, April 18 2011 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#232999) #
It's easy and ignorant to blame the failure of young players exclusively on the scouting staff (people, philosophy) and to point out their two most distinguishable traits as clear reasons why (school, build) they failed. The player development staff may be just as responsible. Not referring to Purcey specifically, but in general.
 
 
TamRa - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 04:06 AM EDT (#233004) #
as a general rule of thumb, two valuable players in any draft is a good year, 3 is a very good year and more than that is excellence.

robertdudek - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 06:11 AM EDT (#233007) #
I'd say the average return for one team in one draft class is:

1 guy with a good career (10+seasons, at least average performance)
1 guy with an okay career (several decent years but a short career)
3-4 guys with very marginal careers

This one will end up being about average, but it does depend almost entirely on Lind.

bpoz - Tuesday, April 19 2011 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#233019) #
Robertdudek, Thanks for being so precise with quantity & quality of success. I don't know how many people agree with your categories, but it is an excellent level to start draft evaluations/opinions.

Adding & subtracting to your 3 categories will help me judge our drafts year by year. Also a bonanza year will offset a non bonanza year.
Revisiting David Purcey and the 2004 Draft | 17 comments | Create New Account
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