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Brett Lawrie kept on rolling with two more hits, both extra base hits, along with three runs driven in. The club also got great pitching performances from Asher Wojciechowski and Zach Stewart.


Tacoma 10 Las Vegas 6

Scott Richmond had what was probably his best start of the year with 11 Ks in 5.0 innings. He did, though, give up two runs on four walks and six hits. Josh Roenicke lost the game with a horrible outing that saw him give up six runs (just one earned) on five hits. Wil Ledezma gave up two runs (none earned) in 1.1 innings. Clint Everts and Danny Farquhar kept the Mariners' minor leaguers off the board. Chris Woodward had a tough day and the plate and in the field. He went 0-for-3 and made three errors. Brett Lawrie went 2-for-4 with a triple, homer and three RBI. David Cooper and Adam Loewen each had two hits. Interestingly, Loewen played first base while Cooper DH-ed. Danny Perales was 1-for-3 with a double.

New Hampshire 2 New Britain 1

In this pitchers' duel, Zach Stewart threw eight shutout innings and gave up just three hits and a walk. He struck out six batters and recorded 10 ground-ball outs. Unfortunately, Bobby Korecky allowed a run in the ninth and blew the save but he recorded the win after the Cats came back to score a run in the bottom of the ninth. Anthony Gose went 1-for-3 with a walk, K and stolen base. Moises Sierra was 2-for-4 with a double, run scored and K. Michael McDade went hitless in four at-bats (a rarity). Darin Mastroianni went 1-for-2 with two walks, a stolen base and a run scored. Travis d'Arnaud was 0-for-4 with 2 Ks.

Dunedin 12 St. Lucie 1

The Baby Jays saw their bats come alive on Sunday. Brad Glenn was 3-for-5 and he slammed three doubles. He drove in four runs and scored twice. Brian Van Kirk, Justin Jackson, and Ryan Goins each had two hits. Jackson stole a base and scored three runs. Van Kirk drove in three runs. Sean Ochinko was 1-for-3 with a double, RBI and a run scored. Joe Bowen went 1-for-3 with two RBI and a walk, while Luis Hurtado pinch hit for him late in the game and had a single. Jon Talley went 1-for-3 and took two walks. On the mound, Asher Wojciechowski rebounded from his worst outing of the year to pitch seven shutout innings. He gave up just two hits and one walk while striking out seven. Chris Malone pitched a scoreless inning but Matt Wright was touched up for a run on three hits in the ninth inning.

Bowling Green 8 Lansing 4

Sean Nolin had his first poor start of the year by allowing six runs in 3.1 innings on seven hits and a walk. He struck out just one batter. Scott Strickland provided 3.1 innings of scoreless relief but Alex Pepe was roughed up in 1.1 innings and allowed two runs. He struggled with his control and walked three batters. The hitters struggled and allowed one run in eight innings. They stormed back in the ninth and scored three runs but were too deep in the hole. After a brief hot-ish streak, Markus Brisker returned to his whiffing ways and K'd three times in as many at-bats. Michael Crouse went 0-for-4 with two Ks. Bryson Namba went 2-for-4 with two doubles and two RBI. Balbino Fuenmayor went 1-for-1 as a pinch hitter and drove in a run with a double. K.C. Hobson went 1-for-3 and Kevin Nolan was 1-for-4 with his first low-A home run of the year.

DSL Blue Jays (Off-day)

The Dominican Summer League team had an off-day despite playing just one game so far this year (nice scheduling) and milb.com is still waiting for the Jays organization to submit the official team roster for 2011.

The Three Stars:
3. Asher Wojociechowski for seven shutout innings
2. Zach Stewart for eight shutout innings
1. Brad Glenn for three doubles and 4 RBI



The Brett Lawrie Show... Again | 46 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
John I - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 01:13 AM EDT (#235734) #
Thanks for the post, Marc.  I always enjoy your work over at Fangraphs.
TamRa - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 03:33 AM EDT (#235736) #
chasing the same rabbit i referred to in the other thread, here are the MLEs for several hot Jays minor leaguers:

Lawrie: .281/.320/.517/.837
Thames: .272/.328/.468/.796
Cooper: .308/.354/.457/.811
Loewen: .243/.299/.433/.732 < that will go up if he stays so hot

d'Arnaud: .269/.330/.428/.758
McDade: .286/.321/.433/.754
Gose: .228/.298/.302/.600
Sierra: .263/.298/.390/.688

(AA to AAA)
d'Arnaud: .340/.414/.557/.971
McDade: .357/.399/.553/.952
Gose: .289/.375/.393/.768
Sierra: .327/.370/.502/.872

(A to AA)
Glenn: .265/.299/.531/.830
Jimenez: .321/.356/.458/.814
Jackson: .286/.382/.423/.805


Kelekin - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 04:25 AM EDT (#235738) #
Thanks as usual Marc.

I'd just like to point out that MLE's are a neat idea but they are a poor man's statistic.  You can't ever statistically take into account how a player will adjust to the majors. 



Kelekin - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 04:38 AM EDT (#235739) #
^ Which isn't meant to sound rude, just that I hope no one actually relies on them.  They can be a neat little guessing tool.
Mike Green - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 08:11 AM EDT (#235742) #
The MLEs, particularly over 2 months, come with a huge error bar. The AAA figures are particularly sensitive to strength of opposition and widely divergent ballpark environments in a small sample.
Forkball - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#235746) #
Wojciechowski's splits are interesting:  19Ks, 16BBs against lefties;  23Ks, 2BBs against righties. 
Spifficus - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#235747) #
My first thought to those splits is the changeup's still a work in progress.

Of course, these things take time so, as long as the scouts see improvement as the year goes along, it's all good.
ayjackson - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#235749) #

MLE's forecast regression because, on aggregate, that's what prospects do as they advance (regression probably not the best word).  It's a reminder that prospects usually fail eventually. 

However, the "true prospects" actually maintain their stats or improve them as they develop and advance through the levels, into the majors, and into their prime.  MLE's give us no indication as to who the "true prospects" are - all you can do is wait and see.

So other than a reminder that prospects fail, I don't see MLE's having any use at all.

Chuck - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#235750) #
I thought MLE's were intended to simply translate minor league numbers to major league numbers, not serve as any kind of forecasting tool. If a player's numbers are X (in this league, in this park, against these opponents) then his numbers would be Y were he in the majors instead.
85bluejay - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#235751) #

Last year Jenkins struggled while developing his changeup, this year he is thriving - so that could be the path of Woj.

 

I wonder with all the chattering amongst media & fans regarding the super 2 and prospect callups if some GMs' may delay calling up a prospect another couple of weeks because they don't want any correlation to seem obvious. 

Mike Green - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#235758) #
Yep, Chuck.  There are significant problems though.  The PCL MLE figures do not, I believe, take into account the severely unbalanced schedule between the former PCL and the former AA and the very differing park environments in these erstwhile leagues.  To take an example, Brett Cecil was battered about in Colorado Springs in his first start, and his ERA has not recovered since then.  The Sky Sox play in some kind of humidor-free hitter's paradise, with their hitters batting .317/.382/.512 and with their pitchers posting a team ERA of 6.61. 

The team ERAs in the former AA parks are 4.18, 4.24, 4.43, 4.56, 4.64, 4.78 and 6.81 (Iowa).  The team ERAs in the former PCL parks are 3.91, 4.75 (Las Vegas) 4.99, 5.31, 5.36, 5.36, 5.51, 5.60 and 6.61. 

These significant problems are accentuated when one tries to create an equivalency from two months of performance (see Cooper, David).

Chuck - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#235760) #

These significant problems are accentuated when one tries to create an equivalency from two months of performance

I totally agree. I was just trying to clarify that MLEs are simple translations of X to Y, not any kind of forecasting.

Mike Green - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#235761) #
Incidentally, I took a closer look at Cecil. He's made 4 starts at home, 4-0 with an ERA of 4.67 (5 homers, 7 walks and 19 strikeouts in 27 innings). He has made 3 starts on the road, in Colorado Springs (team ERA 6.61), in Iowa (team ERA of 6.81) and in Tacoma (team ERA of 5.60).  He is 2-1 on the road with an ERA of 7.79 thanks to the rough-housing in Colorado Springs.  Just to put it in a little more perspective, Brad Mills has had two bad starts this year, one in Colorado Springs and one in Iowa.  He's got an ERA of an even 9 in those 2 parks (10 ER in 10 innings), and has allowed 10 ER in 56.2 innings everywhere else.

A pitcher who plays for a team in the former AA and who has not yet pitched in Iowa or Colorado Springs, probably has an advantage of a run or more simply due to opposition and environment.  MLEs are going to be necessarily imprecise.

Gerry - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#235763) #

I just came across this report of a recent inning pitched by Dustin McGowan.  Here is the key excerpt:

Tuesday, McGowan threw 15 pitches, of which nine were strikes. All three young Pirates hitters struck out, including a called third strike. It was a 95 mph, two-seam fastball that froze the right-handed hitter and left the few spectators in attendance in awe.

Assuming the 95 is true then McGowan might indeed make it back to Toronto.

92-93 - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#235764) #
It's hard not to get excited when you see McGowan is throwing 95. When extended spring training ends, does McGowan have to be assigned to a minor league affiliate, or can he remain on the 60-day DL until the Jays are ready to start his 30-day rehab? The former would mean that McGowan is back in the majors before the All-Star Game or the Jays have to expose him to waivers.
Matthew E - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#235765) #
The real question is, if the Jays bring McGowan up, do they go to a nine-man bullpen?
Gerry - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#235766) #

Extended spring does not count as an official rehab assignment.  That is why McGowan is pitching there.  But extended ends on June 8th.

Once McGowan is assigned to a regular minor league team he can only stay down in the minors for 30 days before being recalled to Toronto.  If he needs to be sent down again, then he will need to clear waivers.

TamRa - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#235768) #
Darn thing still won't let me paste quotes - again I ask: is anyone else having this problem!?

Anyway @Kelekin - I actually do agree. They are, to e, very much a "quick and dirty" look at best. the also do not account for age or experience.

for instance, if Brett Lawrie is tearing up AAA and so is Dewayne Wise - should we assume Wise would be just as good in the majors? of course not.

It's pretty much just for fun - albeit i was pretty impressed with how well they have nailed Arnecibia so far.

TamRa - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#235769) #
Warning: pure irrational emotionalism to follow-

I think it would be a wonderful think if McGowan ended up seizing the closer job by the end of the season.

Matthew E - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#235770) #
Darn thing still won't let me paste quotes - again I ask: is anyone else having this problem!?

I have had problems with it in the past. Try a different browser.
Ryan Day - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#235771) #
I think it would be wonderful if McGowan throws a pitch in the major leagues this season, and doesn't end up on the DL again a week later.

He can become a dominant closer next year.


sweat - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#235772) #
I'm sure they would consider it (for maybe a nano-second), because the Jays bullpen has five guys who could potentially end up as type A free agents.
Shaun Camp, Jason Frasor, Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, and Octavio Dotel.  This is according to MLB Trade Rumors.  I would definitely get rid of Dotel first, but I would guess it depends on what it looks like his value will be.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/05/elias-rankings-update.html

TamRa - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#235773) #
BTW, re McGowan, for Gerry -

If extended ends June 8, and the ASB starts July 11 - is there any way the can massage the activation dates which starts the 30 day clock so that he doesn't have to join the team before the break? or is that even an actual baseball concern?


85bluejay - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#235774) #

Gerry,

         Do the Jays have to assign him immediately or can he stay in Florida on rehab on the 60 day DL and don't get assigned until say August which would mean the team doesn't have to made a roster decision until Sept.?

uglyone - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#235775) #
I think it's absolutely insane that he's already hitting 95 in his first couple of outings out, after all his arm has been through.

What a golden arm this guy must have had.
TamRa - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#235776) #
Molina rating a B fascinates me - on the one hand I say "It can't last" and on the other hand I say "who right below him is any better?"

As for the relievers - My guess is that if no one would sign Francisco or Frasor at the cost of an A, they SURE won't do it for Dotel.

you are in a position of hoping your guy pitches worse, or being stuck in a situation that does you no good on draft day at all.

I, for one, am counting the days until Dotel is traded. if those "A" rankings hold, I'd keep a real open mind about dealing Rauch and Camp too (assuming they are not critical to surprising contention).

On the other hand - that list has a ton of A's and not one B - something seems wrong about that.

Further reading...yeah, from ALRP an on to the right, there are no Type B's, that's got to be a screw up.


TamRa - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#235777) #
@85Bluejays-

the professional media has been reporting they HAVE to assign him to a team when extended ends (assuming no new injury). No idea how reliable that is.

Gerry - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#235778) #

McGowan can stay in Florida and the Jays could try that.  But that creates two potential problems.  First, McGowan would get no game experience, he could only pitch in bullpen sessions.  Is that fair to someone who feels he is ready for game action?  That leads to point number 2, if he is ready for game action and the Jays don't assign him to a team, his agent or the union could grieve the issue.  If he is ready for game action then let him at it.

The next question is where to assign McGowan.  If he is assigned to the Dunedin Jays or NH or LV that could happen anytime.  If they want to send him to a short season team that would likely start when their season starts, which is from June 17th through 22nd.  Count 30 days from when he first pitches (which I assume would be the day he is added to the roster) and that is the last date to end his rehab assigment.

Jdog - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#235779) #
if Brett Lawrie is tearing up AAA and so is Dewayne Wise - should we assume Wise would be just as good in the majors? of course not.


I don't see how you get your conclusion here. Why would you expect the propect to outperform the Veteran in the MLB's if they are performing the same at the AAA level? If they indeed are performing the same and you would need to look at the peripheral stats, I can't see how you would expect the prospect to outperform the veteran. Over the long run yes, but for the rest of the season? If the stats are the same at AAA why wouldn't they be the same in MLB?
TamRa - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#235780) #
so it wouldn't be THAT crazy to hold him for what is just over a week and explain it as a decision to send him to the GCL Jays to start?

That's one way to do it.

My ideal, as much as i'd like to see him back, would be to get as close to the July 31 deadline as possible (for the end of the re-hab) in order to increase the likeliood a spot is opened via trade. I seriously don't like the idea of sending Janssen down if I can help it.



TamRa - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#235781) #
I'm not smart enough to know why - but it happens. See for reference Randy Ruiz, or Chad Mottola, or probably scores of others.


uglyone - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#235782) #
for the record, Wise (132pa) has just over half the plate appearances as Lawrie (242pa), has an OPS 111 points lower than lawrie (.972 to 1.083), with a babip over 20 points higher than lawrie's (.400 to .379)...and Wise's numbers have been falling steadily as his sample size grows (just like Woodward's hot start faded after a great 100pa or so).

There's really not much reason to compare the two.
smcs - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#235783) #
My rudimentary counting skills lead me to believe that Casey Janssen is about the cut-off from A to B status on the AL relievers scale. This means Dotel, Rauch, Francisco, Camp and Frasor are all still A's. Hopefully Dotel slips down to a B (given his performance, might not be a shocker). There are some problems, as Alexi Ogandi is still considered a reliever (only name that jumped out in a quick scan).
Mike Green - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#235784) #
The Fisher Cats rallied for 5 runs in the bottom of the ninth for another win today.  Anthony Gose hit his 4th homer of the year earlier.
subculture - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#235785) #

I haven't seen a post about the Bautista-Danks verbal exchange here, but have an observation that I believe the commentators and bloggers on other sites have so far missed (as far as I can tell). 

In that at-bat, after missing badly with several off-speed pitches, Danks shook off his catcher with an unusually dismissive (almost rude) head-shake and smirk.  He then threw the fastball that JB popped up.  I think JB took that to mean that Danks was saying 'forget strategy, I'm going to challenge him with a fastball' which would explain the emphatic reaction by JB (shouting and spiking the bat).  In reality Danks was probably thinking 'I can't locate my offspeed stuff, and this game is already a write-off, and you STILL keep calling for offspeed pitches!'.

JB felt disrespected by the unusual shakeoff, and let Danks know with the spike.  Danks was plain frustrated, and then he felt disrespected in turn.

 

Mike Green - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#235786) #
Last word from me on the MLEs.  Travis Snider had 175 PAs in Las Vegas at age 21 and went .337/.431/.663.  Lawrie has a few more PAs at the same age and has gone .352/.409/.675.  I guess that for consistency's sake, I should argue that, as with Snider in 2009, the time has come for Lawrie's promotion. 
TamRa - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#235787) #
"There's really not much reason to compare the two"

it was a random veteran, not based on his numbers. you could go back in time and compare Ruiz and Arencibia (consecutive league MVP's IIRC) but i didn't expect the point to be that deeply examined. I just pick an "old guy" at random.






greenfrog - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#235788) #
Nice game for Hechavarria too, 4/5 with a double and a run scored. BA now up to .246. His OPS is also up nicely in May.

Gose is playing fantastic ball this month. Great to see.
bpoz - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#235789) #
Gerry, I think you have covered the McGowan possibilities well. AA is smart, patient and will not take any risks.

McGowan will need more than his 95mph FB. Seems that he is working on increasing his in game pitch count. 15 in game + extra at 3/4 & long toss. I read earlier from Farrell that he was only pitching every 3-4 days.
If he can handle 25 pitches then he can go 1 inning whenever he is called up.
Kelekin - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#235790) #
We'll have to see when that table gets fixed, but my count had Camp as the last Type A reliever, with Frasor and Francisco near the top of the Type B, and Rauch/Dotel also qualifying (same with Janssen.

If McGowan is ready to go in a month, I'd love to see us send Dotel away, or Camp (who could net us more).

TamRa - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#235791) #
Adeiny is hitting over .400 with an OPS over 1.000 in the last seven games.

Hot streaked or corner turned? time will tell.



ayjackson - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#235793) #

Perhaps we could get a new draft thread up?  Sickels and Law came out with new mocks today, and Baseball America put their v2.0 out on Friday.  That would make a good starting point for further discussion.

Law has us taking Georgia Tech lefty, Jed Bradley (who Sickels has going #5 to the Royals).  Sickels has us taking JuCo speedster Cory Spangenburg (who Law has going #10 to the Padres as a signability pick).

Alex Obal - Monday, May 30 2011 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#235794) #
Lawrie hasn't struck out in the last five games. He has two walks over that span.
bpoz - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#235804) #
Andrew Tinnish was on during the 5th & 6th inning of last nights game on the radio. He is playing a key role in next weeks draft. Roberto Alomar was on as well.

I was only able to draw one conclusion (maybe wrong) out of the whole conversation between Tinnish, Jerry & Alan. Tinnish said that they will always pick the best player available when their turn came up...BUT...every player is ranked by talent, potential, etc... and $ Asked by player & $ willing to spend by the Jays. Now this is my theory...the $ equation is the deciding factor.

For example assuming unsigned 2010 8th round pick Logan Ehlers & 18th round pick Kris Bryant are good players that fell because of signing issues, the jays obviously gambled.
IMO losing the 8th round pick upset the Jays because by gambling they lost a player (#246 overall) and have nothing for that choice, when they could have picked and signed a good player but not considered as good as L Ehlers.
K Bryant on the other hand was possibly a signing long shot that only cost them their 18th round pick.

I think that is how they are approaching the draft.
Kelekin - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#235836) #
Ehlers was an 8th round talent who had a good summer after being drafted and decided last minute to decline the offer that was already put in place.
Gerry - Tuesday, May 31 2011 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#235840) #
I heard some of Tinnish on the radio last night and I did hear him say that Dickie Thon Jr could be cleared for baseball activities soon.  Maybe he was being optimistic, Tinnish did draft him, but hopefully he will be right.
The Brett Lawrie Show... Again | 46 comments | Create New Account
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