Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Fresh Thread for Texas Series

No news? I guess that's good news.

For those who missed last night's game, the Jays predictably beat up Brad Bergesen and Mark Hendrickson for an 8-5 win. Eric Thames and Edwin Encarnacion homered, Yunel Escobar and J.P. Arencibia added a couple of hits each, and Carlos Villanueva survived five shaky innings to earn a negative-WPA Pitcher Win. On the flipside, Jose Bautista looked a bit out of whack for the second straight night, and Colby Rasmus took a nice 0-5 in his debut. J.J. Hardy hit his third and fourth homers of the series - I've been mocking Baltimore for signing him to a 3-year extension, but maybe they do have something there. In St. Louis, Marc Rzepczynski pitched two shutout, one-hit innings with four strikeouts and no walks for the Cardinals.

Stat of the day:

Infield Fly Percentage by season:

Yunel Escobar '07-'11 3.2, 3.6, 3.6, 10.6, 1.2
Colby Rasmus '09-'11 5.2, 5.2, 13.3

I wonder if whipping boys tend to swing more in what Joe Maddon calls 'maybe' mode, hmm? Maybe this is a pattern for players who got run out of town in this manner. Maybe it's just a coincidence. Escobar improved a bit when he came to Toronto - his Jays tenure began with a 10-game hit streak - but he didn't start really hitting like himself again until this year. I figure Rasmus will be similarly competent this August but won't set the world on fire. I am, however, very optimistic he'll regain his form by next year. If it happens sooner, great.

That's it. I got nothing else. Here are questions:

How do you feel about the prospect of Villanueva as a starter for the 2012 Jays?

What about Encarnacion as a DH, if some of the current outfielders get traded for pitching and/or a second baseman?

Thames has a .375 BABIP and I think he's been one of the unluckiest hitters on the team. Am I crazy? Last night, he had one strikeout and absolutely tattooed three balls. No 'maybe' mode here.

This winter, if you were Prince Fielder and the Orioles offered you an 8-year deal worth $20 million more than any other team's offer, would you sign with them, knowing that barring a trade you would likely never play in another playoff game until at least 2020?

Saturday, Brad Mills returns to the bigs and faces hard-throwing Derek Holland. Sunday, it's Brandon Morrow and C.J. Wilson. And tonight, Brett Cecil and Alexi Ogando meet up in a rematch from Sunday. Round 1 was a flawless victory for Cecil. Round 2 - fight!

Posted by Alex Obal on Friday, July 29 2011 @ 06:30 PM EDT.

Fresh Thread for Texas Series | 63 comments | Create New Account

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Alex Obal - Friday, July 29 2011 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#239753) #

Rasmus bats second again tonight:

2B Kinsler, SS Andrus, CF Hamilton, 3B Young, RF Cruz, C Napoli, 1B Moreland, DH Torrealba, LF Murphy
SS Escobar, CF Rasmus, 3B Bautista, 1B Lind, DH Encarnacion, RF Thames, 2B Hill, LF Snider, C Arencibia

Sano - Friday, July 29 2011 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#239754) #

If I'm Fielder there's no way I sign for the O's. As much as it seems like they are pulling out of their two decades of suckage, there's not enough proof yet that this isn't a false dawn.

Re: Villaneuva- I think that he gets punted back to the long relief role in the bullpen as soon as 1) Drabek is recalled or 2) Litsch has a few nice outings in a row.

TamRa - Friday, July 29 2011 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#239755) #

I keep seeing trade rumors re Koji Uehara - I wanted him for the closer role last winter and I still do. how could he not be the ideal acquisition for that job?

TamRa - Friday, July 29 2011 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#239756) #

We have too many good young options to have CV in the rotation except as a fall-back plan....although I'm VERY pleased to have him there as a fall-back.

EE being retained i could tolerate. Not necessarily LIKE but live with.
As long as he doesn't get in the way of any kids who are hitting.

Mick Doherty - Friday, July 29 2011 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#239759) #

If the Rangers lose the AL West by one game, the Angels should buy Brett Cecil and JP Arencibia cars with a card signed "Thanks for that week in July."

greenfrog - Friday, July 29 2011 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#239760) #

Well, the Angels still have to play the Jays a half-dozen times, so it might be a bit premature for Mike Scioscia to start penning love letters to Cecil, Arencibia or any other Jays, for that matter...

Ron - Friday, July 29 2011 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#239761) #

The Jays have been outstanding the past 17 games going 12-5. Do you want to know how much ground they have made on the divison leading Red Sox during this stretch? The answer is 0 games. Welcome to the AL East!

Ryan Day - Friday, July 29 2011 @ 11:59 PM EDT (#239762) #

Sometimes he looks lousy, but when JP Arencibia is good, he is really, really good. (He reminds me a lot of Vernon Wells in that way, though obviously with a pretty different skillset)

gabrielthursday - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 03:11 AM EDT (#239763) #

I find it difficult to see Villanueva as a likely starter for the Jays next season. Drabek will again be given the opportunity to make the club out of Spring Training (if he doesn't make it back this season), we have the potential of a McGowan renaissance, and we will almost certainly still have Romero, Morrow, Cecil and Jesse Litsch. Those six will be given opportunities ahead of del los V, and so two would have to fail or be injured in order to put Villanueva back in the rotation. He will be, as he was this season, insurance residing in the bullpen.

As for trading outfielders, I don't think it will happen, as AA is building around Bautista and Rasmus, while Snider still has a tonne of potential which AA will not trade low on. That leaves Thames, who could potentially be traded - it depends whether AA thinks Thames has more value to develop, or if he can sell high this off-season. Presuming no trades, that leaves EE probably as the right side of a DH platoon with Thames, the backup 3B/1B, and a late-inning pinch-hitter (although we might as for who? perhaps our 2B next year?). Frankly, I think that's a very valuable kind of player to have on the roster, if we can't get a good return for EE on the trade market.

dawgatc - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#239765) #

kenen bailli - hitting machine from Cuba - should we be excited?????

lexomatic - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#239766) #

I agree with Gabriel

I am quite happy with the scenario proposed for EE & Thames. I also can live with Villanueva as a fallback for the rotation but want him in the pen, and think that's where he'll end up.

Dave Rutt - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#239767) #

Thames has a .375 BABIP and I think he's been one of the unluckiest hitters on the team. Am I crazy?

He does have a line drive percentage of 27.4, which would rank .2% behind Joey Votto for the major league lead if he qualified. On the other hand, this thing thinks his BABIP should only be .323. Though I'm skeptical of the xBABIP calculator - it told me Arencibia's should be over .300 despite a LD% of 12.5.

Anyway, if Thames can keep hitting line drives at an MLB-leading rate, that's a great sign, though that isn't the most likely scenario.

bpoz - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#239770) #

I don't know what kind of a development year 2012 will be, but the rest of this year is a good trial run for 2012.

I heard AA say at the start of 2011 that we could win 80-91 games because the team has a lot of high draft picks and players making BIG $. He said obviously someone thought they were good. IMO AA & most people knew there were holes like unproven catcher & 1B and other holes.

I like our lineup now, and only see a definite change at 2B. A decent experienced utility player for 2B minimum is OK with me to start 2012. Then work at getting something better.
If Thames is the odd man out I like him rotating at DH & OF to get a lot of ML ABS, so he is ready when someone gets injured.
The 2012 bench of 2nd catcher, Thames, Teahen +1 could be OK because there will be some close prospects ready as 2012 progresses.

Winning was not a priority in 2011, yet we are only 3.5 games behind LAA for the 2nd WC if there was one in 2011. We have talent & youth but lack experience, but that should get better & better as the playing time progresses.
Some ODD pitching decisions were made this year,IMO because winning was not a priority. I hope the priority changes. If the pitching for 2012 gets better because we get lucky or smart then MAYBE.

Spookie Wookie - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#239771) #

I might be fine with Villanueva starting next year, depending on how other holes in the roster are filled.

I think as things stand he has a decent shot:
- Romero, Morrow, and Cecil seems to be locks, but one or more of them could certainly be injured at some point next season
- beyond that, I don't see a whole lot of depth. Litsch, Drabek, Carreno, McGowan, and Mills would seem to be the obvious candidates besides Villanueva.

Litsch has a history of injury problems. With Drabek, it's not something I really want to think about, but there's certainly some chance his pitching career's already gone the way of Ankiel or Willis. McGowan, who knows. Carreno might not be ready.

Unless I'm missing someone or the Jays pick up a starter, or there is tremendously good luck with respect to injuries and performance, I have trouble seeing him not picking up starts.

92-93 - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#239772) #

I'm not sure how I feel about the prospects of Villanueva being in the rotation in August, let alone 2012. It's a smoke and mirrors act that can't hold up longterm in an AL East rotation. He pitched very poorly Thursday night, results notwithstanding, and you can be sure AA is working the phones seeing if he can cash in on the first half of this season. Great arm to pickup on the cheap, but for a contending team Villanueva is a nice bullpen piece, not a #4 starter.

A positive sign on Rasmus : even with the 0 for 8 he's seen 43 pitches in 9 plate appearances. The little things.

I wish Mills the best today, and if you're going to face Texas it might as well be sans Hamilton & Cruz to give yourself a chance. I caution the excitement over his PCL dominance though - we all remember Dana Eveland 2010, and the dude is using the same junk to carve up the PCL this year.

China fan - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#239773) #

It's fun to make predictions, but the reality is that nobody has a clue. We assumed last year that Drabek would be a regular in the rotation by now. Instead he is struggling at AAA (with another bad start last night) and nobody knows whether he'll be a regular in 2012 or not. We assumed that Villanueva was a fringe reliever who would be -- at best -- a middle-innings reliever this year. Instead he's produced a slew of quality starts in the rotation. Conceivably he could continue to improve and win a rotation slot in 2012. It's equally possible that Anthopoulos could package a bunch of prospects and surplus players to obtain a top-flight starter in a trade deal this week or in the off-season, relegating Villanueva to the bullpen next season.

More imponderables: we've been assuming that Snider will be a regular in the outfield in 2012, with Thames relegated to a platoon DH role. But on the basis of the past couple of weeks -- or even on the basis of the 2011 season as a whole -- it could be argued that Thames deserves to rank ahead of Snider for the 2012 outfield. It's interesting that Snider is on the bench for today's game, while Thames is batting 6th. How much has changed for Snider in the past 12 months? Has he improved, or is he still the inconsistent guy that we've seen for the past three years? Are his problems always the fault of the managers (Gaston last year, Farrell this year) or is it possible that the managers are trying to help him? Is it AA's fault for failing to give him a full season of 600 plate appearances? Or is it maybe that Snider isn't quite as good as we assumed? Who knows, but I don't think there are easy answers here -- or easy predictions.

Magpie - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#239775) #

for a contending team Villanueva is a nice bullpen piece, not a #4 starter.

Not necessarily. In fact, this would be a good time for everyone to look at the Boston rotation. Which currently features John Lackey and Tim Wakefield. Villanueva as the number 4 starter would be an upgrade for the first-place team.

That noted, I also hope Villanueva goes back to the bullpen, but I hope it happens because someone steps and takes the job.

D. King - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#239776) #

I like our lineup now, and only see a definite change at 2B.

I was talking to a friend about this while watching Thursday's game. I assume there is a near zero chance that Aaron's options are picked up, but what then? The first thing to consider is that the free agent class doesn't really have any obvious candidates:

Clint Barmes HOU
Willie Bloomquist ARI *
Orlando Cabrera CLE
Robinson Cano NYY *
Jamey Carroll LAD
Luis Castillo NYM
Alex Cora WAS
Craig Counsell MIL
Mark Ellis OAK
Jerry Hairston Jr. WAS
Aaron Hill TOR *
Omar Infante FLA
Joe Inglett HOU
Kelly Johnson ARI
Adam Kennedy SEA
Felipe Lopez TB
Jose Lopez FLA
Aaron Miles LAD
Brandon Phillips CIN *
(* denotes 2012 option)

So outside of another trade that catches us unawares, we are not going to be featuring a top or even middle of the order second baseman next year. But who on that list would you rather have than Aaron Hill? Lets assume that his 2010-2011 numbers are what we can expect from him for the next two years, and that he continues to provide solid if unremarkable defence - are you convinced that anyone else who is going to be available is likely to provide better? Jose Lopez?

Not only is it hard to find a player that seems a good bet to outperform Hill, but there are also these factors in his favour: he and Escobar are familiar with each other, he is an excellent baserunner, and he seems to be well liked by his team mates.

In no way am I advocating that we should overpay for Hill's service - he is now a marginal starter according to one and a half years performance. I am saying that of all the obvious options, I would still target him. And paying him something along the lines of $5M for two years would seem reasonable.

Do others agree? Do you think that the short market for second basemen and his past glory will net him a bigger contract?

uglyone - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#239778) #

Career:

K.Johnson (29): .345obp, .790ops, .108ops+, .346woba

D. King - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#239779) #

Also - nice start by Cecil last night obviously, however I noticed that the fastball speed had dropped again. According to PitchFX he averaged 90.59mph on his fastball on the 24th, but only 88.39 last night. Furthermore, the average velocities on his sinker and slider were also down about 2mph last night. Would the additional velocity in Texas have come from a looser arm due to the heat?

D. King - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#239781) #

K.Johnson (29): .345obp, .790ops, .108ops+, .346woba

Yeah, I guess there's that. Are you concerned about his obp this year though? (.298) It seems as if he's striking out more than earlier in his career. (27%) And its not completely anomalous - in 2009 he hit .224 with a .303 obp. (granted, he still maintained a higher wOBA than Hill has produced in the past two years).

I mean, he's obviously a very talented ball player, but there are a few red flags and I imagine that he'll get a fairly large contract. Hypothetically are you more confident in Johnson for 3-4 years at $8-10M per or Hill for 2 at $2.5? The Hill contract would of couse allow you the flexibility to move him to the bench, etc. if he doesn't perform and you are able to find a better option on the trade market. If Johnson didn't work out, not so much.

dan gordon - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#239782) #

Zaun really had some negative things to say about Arencibia's defense on The Fan 590 yesterday. He said that J.P. had regressed this season, that he didn't receive the ball well, he didn't set a target for his pitcher, he didn't block balls well, he didn't throw well. Basically saying he was a hit-only player and he was very disappointed with his defense. He said he wasn't hitting enough to make up for the poor defense. I was surprised to hear all of that - I was under the impression J.P.'s defense was regarded as being sort of OK.

Good opportunity for Mills today - the Rangers have 5 lefties in the lineup.

Spifficus - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#239783) #

A positive sign on Rasmus : even with the 0 for 8 he's seen 43 pitches in 9 plate appearances. The little things.

Yeah, I'm definitely loving his at bats. He tracks the ball well, and aside from some over-anxiousness on the breaking ball is swinging at decent pitches. I can't wait until he gets his timing down and starts squaring up those pop-ups.

DaveB - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#239785) #

How do you feel about the prospect of Villanueva as a starter for the 2012 Jays?

The back end of the rotation for next year is up in the air but Villanueva has a better chance to be there than McGowan, Litsch, Mills or anyone now in Double A. McGowan has been gone too long and had too many setbacks to make a comeback probable. If Farrell thought highly of Mills he would have been up long ago, and Litsch is now in the bullpen behind Mills with his own history of injuries.

Villanueva meanwhile is doing a pretty fair impersonation of Livan Hernandez . He doesn't get as many GBs and maybe that's what will kill him as a starter, but that kind of rubber-armed, innings-eating bamboozler can be a good No. 5 even in the AL East.

Zaun really had some negative things to say about Arencibia's defense on The Fan 590 yesterday. He said that J.P. had regressed this season, that he didn't receive the ball well, he didn't set a target for his pitcher, he didn't block balls well, he didn't throw well. Basically saying he was a hit-only player and he was very disappointed with his defense. He said he wasn't hitting enough to make up for the poor defense.

Bauxite Sam was taken to task long ago for many of the same observations. I totally agree with Zaun.

johnny was - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#239786) #

Assuming the Dodgers don't exercise their option, Rafael Furcal might be an interesting FA option at second next year provided he was willing to change positions and come North.

Kelekin - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#239788) #

The question becomes whether or not Arencibia's offense is enough to offset his defense. I imagine most Bauxites believe D'Arnaud is the long-term solution if he can succeed as a major leaguer, since his game is more well-rounded. But it's tough to know - we've had tons of great catcher performances at the AA level before. Heck, Wieters still has a career .718 OPS after a 1.014 minor league OPS.

TamRa - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#239791) #

Kelly Johnson's age 29 season looks a whole lot like Aaron Hill's age 28 season on the surface.

I'm not sure why someone who's worried (rightly) about Hill's recent work would be too exuberant about bringing in Johnson (at potentially twice the price or more in 2012).

(both normalized to 150 games)
Hill '10
574/117, 24-0-28, 74 RBI, 45 BB, 92K, .205/.271/.394/.665
Johnson '11
569/123, 30-6-27, 72 RBI, 61 BB, 173 K, .217/.298/.431/.729

11 more XBH, 16 more walks, 81 more K

If I was worried about Hill last fall, I'd HAVE to be worried about Johnson this fall.

whiterasta80 - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#239792) #

I don't know how anyone who has followed the jays for long could be that upset with JPA. Just look at the catchers we have trotted out in our history, its not exactly Brian McCann and Vmart. He is a rookie who will improve. While his D isn't exactly Stellar, I dispute that it has regressed and his game management has very clearly improved.

TamRa - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#239793) #

I am saying that of all the obvious options, I would still target him. And paying him something along the lines of $5M for two years would seem reasonable.

Do others agree?

I do.

My thinking is, if you have a line-up who's only weak spot is 2B, you can carry that guy. Tell him to relax and catch the ball and not sweat the offense and see if the lack of pressure helps clear his mind.

I'd target Beckham if he became available, and keep my eye out for a chance to grab a real prospect...but I'd prefer the devil i know to the devil i don't know as far as the free agents go.

China fan - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#239794) #

There's a lot of speculation that Litsch and Mills are basically competing for the 5th spot in the rotation. If that's the case, Mills has won the first battle. He'll get another start, while Litsch will have to keep trying to impress from the bullpen.

uglyone - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#239795) #

I'm not sure why someone who's worried (rightly) about Hill's recent work would be too exuberant about bringing in Johnson (at potentially twice the price or more in 2012).

Did you really just post a comparison of Kelly Johnson posting an ops near 100 points higher this half-season than Hill did all of last year (and then for some reason ignore that Hill is even worse this year) and then "wonder" why anyone would prefer Johnson?

Johnson had a horrible first month (APR .575ops) and since then he's been back to his usual .800ish ops self. Kelly Johnson has a .324 wOBA this year, which is better than Hill's career AVERAGE of .322.

Career wOBA:

E.Thames (24): .365

J.Bautista (30): .362

K.Johnson (29): .346

A.Lind (27): .343

Y.Escobar (28): .343

E.Encarnacion (28): .343

C.Rasmus (24): .335

M.Teahen (29): .323

T.Snider (23): .322

A.Hill (29): .322

R.Davis (30): .319

J.Arencibia (25): .312

J.Molina (36): .280

J.McDonald (36): .266

92-93 - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#239797) #

There's no question Villanueva's results thus far in the rotation have been impressive, and more than good enough for any team. I was doubting whether that success can be sustained.

Kelly Johnson is a Type A, so no thanks. Not even close to worth it.

Ron - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#239799) #

I think it�s safe to say the Phillies are a drafting and player development machine. In the past 2 years they have traded away 13 prospects (Carrasco, Knapp, Marson, Donald, D�Arnaud, Taylor, Drabek, Happ, Gose, Villar, Cosart, Singleton, Zeid) to get Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, and Pence. The Phillies haven�t had a Top 5 pick in a long time and they don�t go overslot to the same degree as the Pirates and Royals.

How many other teams can trade away 13 prospects in 2 years and still have plenty of prospects in the system to use for future trades (May, Colvin, Biddle, Valle, Greene, etc..)?

Kasi - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#239800) #

Kelly Johnson plays in the biggest band box in the league. His road numbers are significantly worse than his home numbers. I'd not be terribly excited about bringing him in because of that. What I'd like is if we could find Marco Scutaro part 2, someone some teams have passed over but has some decent skills and we could get underbudget. Johnson is not that.

TamRa - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#239801) #

Did you really just post a comparison of Kelly Johnson posting an ops near 100 points higher this half-season than Hill did all of last year (and then for some reason ignore that Hill is even worse this year) and then "wonder" why anyone would prefer Johnson?

No i didn't. In fact, I didn't mention Hill's 2011 AT ALL because i was not discussing whether or not one ought prefer Johnson to Hill

What I did was compare what will be Johnson's most recent work to what we knew if Hill during the last off-season.

if the question is "all other things being equal, would you rahter have Johnson or Hill?" then your reply is appropriate.

but that was NOT the question on the table - and all other things are not equal. If Johnson is indeed a Type A then that's a deal breaker right there, full stop.

As for your claim about "being back to his old self" - his OPS since June 1 is .737

Is he a better hitter than hill right now? sure.

Is he worth giving up a first round pic for? paying twice or more what Hill will cost? is he the solution to the problem?

No. No. No.

What I "wondered" was why anyone who was greatly concerned about Hill last winter - rightly so - would be excited about Johnson this winter.

I move the previous question.

TamRa - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#239802) #

Oh, and you keep posting this:

Career wOBA:

E.Thames (24): .365

J.Bautista (30): .362

K.Johnson (29): .346

A.Lind (27): .343

Y.Escobar (28): .343

E.Encarnacion (28): .343

C.Rasmus (24): .335

As if it means something.

does anyone here, including you, think that Johnson is a better hitter than Lind, Excobar, or even Rasmus?

I doubt it very very seriously. recent work (of significant sample size) > career stats - ALWAYS. Because no hitter is the same quality of hitter thrughout his career.

BlueJayWay - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#239803) #

Jays hitters in night games: 271/337/438, 5.11 runs/game
Jays hitters in day games : 234/295/389, 4.10 runs/game

That doesn't include today's 4 hit shut out.

D. King - Saturday, July 30 2011 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#239807) #

I agree with TamRa- the question is not so much "is Kelly Johnson a better hitter than Aaron Hill," its whether or not it is prudent to sign KJ to the sort of contract that he will demand.

If it were a player who I felt was a slam dunk impact player, then sure, I would gladly spend as much of Rogers money as possible. I don't think that this is the case with KJ, and I think that this is exactly the sort of free agent deal to avoid. The problem isn't that it costs too much money, it is that it clogs your team with a player who could likely be middle of the pack. Why not keep the flexibility to pounce at a better option when/if it becomes available?

For me, the value of flexibility outweighs what I see in the projected performance spread between KJ and AH.

As a side note I am about to enjoy a recreation of the Last Waltz in the park in Simcoe, On. Norfolk county is a great part of the country and I encourage Bauxites to come visit! Happy Governor Simcoe Day to you all, wherever tou may be!

uglyone - Sunday, July 31 2011 @ 05:14 AM EDT (#239810) #

Why are people now pretending that Kelly is on the decline, and that his career numbers are misleading? He had the best year of his career last year at age 28. Having a bad april this year doesn't mean he's on the decline.

And yes, clearly Kelly Johnson has been a better offensive player than Lind, Escobar, and Rasmus over his career. Absolutely. That is exactly how good he has been, as the numbers clearly show.

And for those worried about his homepark inflation, he has a .338 career road wOBA, still as good or better than most any of our current hitters' overall career numbers. And of course, Rogers Centre is a very friendly hitters' park in its own right, anyways.

uglyone - Sunday, July 31 2011 @ 05:20 AM EDT (#239811) #

does anyone here, including you, think that Johnson is a better hitter than Lind, Excobar, or even Rasmus? I doubt it very very seriously. recent work (of significant sample size) > career stats - ALWAYS. Because no hitter is the same quality of hitter thrughout his career.

what's a significant sample size to you? just this year, I'm guessing? how about last 2 years? is that fair?

Johnson: .357

Rasmus: .349

Escobar: .329

Lind: .325

uglyone - Sunday, July 31 2011 @ 05:20 AM EDT (#239812) #

Johnson: .357

Rasmus: .349

Escobar: .329

Lind: .325

Spookie Wookie - Sunday, July 31 2011 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#239826) #

Regarding Kelly Johnson, I would think there's a decent chance he won't be offered arbitration, or will accept it if offered. As a Type A with a batting average this season of .217, and a current salary of 5.85M, if the DBacks offer arbitration he's got to be thinking he can't do better than what's offered if a team has to give up 2 picks. Conversely, the Dbacks might not think he's worth the money in arbitration.

It seems highly unlikely to me that he hits the market as a Type A.

greenfrog - Sunday, July 31 2011 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#239827) #

Spookie, your point is well taken, but wouldn't the current shortage of second basemen create a strong market for Johnson's services? Let's say he could expect to receive $7M in arbitration. Wouldn't some team likely offer him two years @ $12-14M, or three years at $16-20M? After all, Marco Scutaro (another Type A) received a 2-year, $12.5M contract from the Red Sox following his age-33 season. It's all about supply and demand.

greenfrog - Sunday, July 31 2011 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#239831) #

Andy Van Slyke rips Rasmus:

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/07/31/former-redbirds-andy-van-slyke-rips-colby-rasmus/

Spookie Wookie - Sunday, July 31 2011 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#239833) #

Greenfrog, good point about Scutaro. But he was coming off a career year; his OBP was over .400 in 2009 and the Red Sox only gave up the 80th pick for him due to other signings. Kelly Johnson is having an off year. I would tend to think that he would believe he's better off accepting arbitration, hoping for a career year, and trying again the next offseason.

(Also I said in my previous post that a team gives up 2 picks for a Type A; of course that was a mistake by me, it's only 1 pick given up by the signing team).

PeteMoss - Sunday, July 31 2011 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#239834) #

Unconcerned. Van Slyke sounds like he's just appeasing the local organization.

Flex - Sunday, July 31 2011 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#239835) #

"He uses his emotional mind" says Van Slyke of Rasmus. What does that mean?

"This ball makes me angry; I will hit it"

"This ball leaves me feeling sanguine, I shall let it pass."

This, presumably, is the opposite of Yunel Escobar, who is performing so well these days, according to Blair's article in the Globe, because of "happiness."

TamRa - Sunday, July 31 2011 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#239840) #

what's a significant sample size to you? just this year, I'm guessing? how about last 2 years? is that fair?

Not just this year, no. the generally accepted set is the last 3 years.

In any case, any sample you select that calls him a better hitter than Lind, at a minimum, simply makes me suspect the validity of the stat.

Kelly Johnson is not a better hitter than Adam Lind. full stop.

Oh, and I see you repeated the "bad April" bit again.

Yes, his OPS was .575 in April. But it was also .653 in June. He has had two good months and two awful months this year, alternating - not a slow start followed by cheesy goodness ever since.

TamRa - Sunday, July 31 2011 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#239843) #

Rasmus got it going today which was good to see - get the monkey off his back.

Noticed something about Frank Francisco today - Since May 30 he's given up 7 runs in 18 IP for an ERA of 3.50 (with 19k and 6 BB)

But 5 of those seven runs came in only two appearances in which he recorded only one out. Take out those two and his ERA over the last two months is 1.02

uglyone - Sunday, July 31 2011 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#239844) #

In any case, any sample you select that calls him a better hitter than Lind, at a minimum, simply makes me suspect the validity of the stat.

Career

Johnson (29): .790ops, .346woba

Lind (27): .799ops, .343woba

Escobar (28): .772ops, .343woba

3-Year

Johnson (29): .784ops, .345woba

Lind (27): .823ops, .352woba

Escobar (28): .759ops, .339woba

2-Year

Johnson (29): .813ops, .357oba

Lind (27): .750ops, .324woba

Escobar (28): .728ops, .328woba

2011

Johnson (29): .728ops, .324woba

Lind (27): .817ops, .350woba

Escobar (28): .823ops, .363woba

Is there any particular reason why you think the stats are more questionable than your own personal unsupported opinion?

TamRa - Sunday, July 31 2011 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#239846) #

other stats - admittedly more "primitive" ones don't agree.

And yeah, my own personal opinion. I'm willing to concede my personal opinion regarding Escobar might not apply - they are close enough that could be subject to all the fine tuning that plays into wOBA

But I simply don't buy it concerning Lind. Maybe that's because some of the sabar stuff is beyond my easy comprehension. I respect wOBA to the extent that people smarter than me take it seriously.

But any stat that I can't understand is never going to trump the ones I do. If that makes me an ill-informed bimbo then so be it. I'm still not going to be convinced Johnson is a better hitter than Lind. not by that stat anyway.

Mike Green - Sunday, July 31 2011 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#239853) #

Tomorrow is August 1. The Jays have the day off and begin a road series in Tampa Bay on Tuesday facing Price. Lawrie time?

Matthew E - Sunday, July 31 2011 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#239854) #

A lot of people, including Mike Wilner, think that we could see Lawrie on Tuesday, but Anthopoulos has said that we won't. (He may of course have changed his mind since then.)

I'm starting to come around to the belief that if we see Lawrie at all this year, it'll be in September. They may have just decided, you know what, let's give him all of '11 in triple-A, and see where we are next spring.

smcs - Monday, August 01 2011 @ 01:43 AM EDT (#239855) #

As it stands, Lawrie would be taking away at bats from Encarnacion, Thames and Snider. I think getting Rasmus and Teahen (and getting rid of Patterson and demoting McCoy) delayed Lawrie's arrival until Encarnacion gets traded. From here on in, Lind, Hill, Escobar, Rasmus and Bautista can more or less be placed in ink in the starting line-ups. Arencibia and Molina cover the catcher spot and the odd DH day. So covering the unfilled positions (LF, DH & RF/3B), would be Snider, Encarnacion, Thames and, if he gets called up, Lawrie. I would assume Lawrie would not be called up to sit on the bench, so you can essentially place him in the line-up at 3B, leaving 3 players for 2 spots, all with good cases to receive regular playing time. Only way this changes is if one of 3 gets traded (Encarnacion being the obvious candidate) or an injury. I wouldn't be shocked if Lawrie doesn't play in Toronto this season and spends time in the AFL.

dalimon5 - Monday, August 01 2011 @ 04:19 AM EDT (#239857) #

Encarnacion is still in the line up because he's good friends with Jose and the Jays brass have allowed Jose to help Edwin turn it around, much like Yunel. I likewise don't see Lawrie up unless Snider is demoted once again or until September comes around. I wish, they would call him up because a player that young, already 'robbed' of a promotion - well there will be a time when that player gets a sour taste in his mouth if not promoted or if he enters a long long dry spell without ever tasting the majors. Think Thames and how motivated he was to work harder after his brief stint in the majors the first time around. In fact, bringing Lawrie up for a taste and then sending him down is a good idea. I hate seeing uber talented guys like Stanton and Heyward struggling to reach their potential because they were promoted to the majors sooner than they had to be.

I'm really excited about Henderson Alvarez.

Flex - Monday, August 01 2011 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#239859) #

there will be a time when that player gets a sour taste in his mouth if not promoted

I should hope that wouldn't be any time soon for Brett Lawrie. He's 21 in AAA for heaven's sake.

92-93 - Monday, August 01 2011 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#239870) #

Encarnacion is still in the lineup because he's hitting .299/.358/.549 since May 29th, has an affordable contract for next year, and is borderline Type B status.

Landomar - Monday, August 01 2011 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#239880) #

Yeah, I think at this point, Lawrie will stay down in AAA until September. The extra minor league time shouldn't hurt him, and Snider, Thames, and Enarnacion are all worth giving regular at bats to right now. If Lawrie comes up earlier, though, I wouldn't complain.

Once Lawrie comes up, I imagine that he would be at 3B, Bautista would go to RF, and Snider/Thames/Encarnacion would share LF and DH, while also providing nice depth for giving guys off days or even just a DH day from time to time(Lind, Bautista, or Lawrie mainly). That could be a good setup for September, and also for next season if we end up sticking with our current players for DH, 1B, 3B, LF, and RF.

hypobole - Monday, August 01 2011 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#239882) #

The day off replacement would be Rajai - no? I would think one of Snider or probably Thames returns to Vegas. EE looks pretty well locked in as our DH.

bpoz - Wednesday, August 03 2011 @ 07:43 AM EDT (#239995) #

Thames has 165 ABs for the year of which 101 ABs occured in July.
With 2 months to go I would like to see young players whom we believe will contribute in 2012 getting 150+ABs over the rest of the year. Thames would then end up with 300+ ABS this year.

TamRa - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 02:24 AM EDT (#240084) #

interestingly, Thames and Snider over the last couple of weeks are hitting (or failing to hit) to almost exactly the same degree - and their results since July 4 (Snider's first game back) are also very much the same. Neither is taking advantage of the other.

92-93 - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 02:43 AM EDT (#240088) #

Since Snider's callup, around 95 PA for each, before tonight's 0-fers :

Snider .286/.287/.462 31:1 K:BB 2 HR 10 2B
Thames .247/.289/.416 18:5 K:BB 2 HR 7 2B 1 3B

They have Rajai as a 4th OF anyway so optioning down Thames until September when you want to call up Lawrie is probably the way to go.

TamRa - Thursday, August 04 2011 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#240114) #

I was mulling that last night and i tend to agree. One of two options seems possible:

1. DFA Teahan after talking it over with him and pointing out that after the 10 day waiver period he will only be down there two weeks - this would be the ideal solution, and some sucker like the Astros might actually claim him.

2. Demote Thames until the end of the month - he certainly seems to have the proper attitude to be philosophical about it.

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