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The World Series is done and we are officially in hot stove league time. Free agents are filing, trades and signings are starting, so let the speculation begin.

Latest News: The Jays have announced they will be picking up Edwin Encarnacion's 2012 option and have declined the 2012 option on Jon Rauch's contract.

What is coming up?

From November 14 through November 22 the award winners for the 2011 season will be announced.

On November 14 and 15 the General managers will be meeting in Milwaukee. This meeting will set the groundwork for trades at the winter meetings.

By November 23rd teams have to offer arbitration to their free agents. If arbitration is not offered it will make those free agents more attractive to signing teams. The player has until December 7th to accept the arbitration offer.

Rosters for the rule 5 draft have to be set by December 5th.

From December 5th to the 8th the winter meetings take place in Dallas. The rule 5 draft is on the last day.

Sometime in the middle of all this the Union and MLB should announce a new labour agreement. There may be changes to the wild card system, divisional alignment and the draft.


What will the Jays be doing?


The Jays have just completed organizational meetings to set their off-season agenda. Gregor Chisholm has the scoop. Both the headline and the first paragraph of the story say the Jays will be aggressive in improving the roster. That improvement has to come in several areas of the roster, AA believes the Jays are more than one player away.

I don't believe that we're one player away, that's probably the best way to put it, Anthopoulos said at his year-end news conference. But I still think there is value out there and maybe things change if there are trades that develop.


The story identifies second base, a front-line starting pitcher and a closer as off-season priorities. But AA's position on free-agents is ambivalent, at best.


A lot of times when you're looking at contracts, you're debating, Anthopoulos said. If it's a five-year contract or a three-year contract, you feel like you're going to get value for all five years? Four years? Two years?

Most times in free agency you're probably going to find that you're not going to see a lot of value in it. There is the odd time that you will, but you're going to have to feel that it's there, especially for the prime, premium guys.


The money quote to me is "most times... you are not going to see a lot of value in it". Don't expect the Jays to sign free-agents who are looking for long term deals. If the Jays pattern of recent seasons continues they will sign free agents to one year deals. If the deal works, great, if not the Jays can try to flip the player at the deadline.

AA has repeatedly said he will look to trade his way to success.

Free agency will be an option for the Blue Jays to explore, but Anthopoulos prefers making his major moves through trades. The third-year GM has added the likes of Yunel Escobar, Colby Rasmus and Brett Lawrie that way while limiting the amount of multiyear contracts handed out via free agency.

It's a way for the Blue Jays to control costs and maintain flexibility with their payroll as they look to move from a rebuilding phase into a hopeful contender for the postseason.


Who do the Jays have to trade?

Remember that it is players in AA or AAA who have the most value, single A players are usually thrown into a deal, not the cornerstone. The Jays do have surplus pitching in the upper minors. At AA and higher the Jays have Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, Cecil, Litsch, Drabek, McGowan, McGuire, Jenkins, Molina and Hutchison. So why do the Jays need a starting pitcher? They want a better starting pitcher who can start now in the AL East. Cecil, Litsch and some of the minor league guys don't appear to be ideally suited for the AL East.

The most likely trade is a 2 for 1 deal, for example the Jays could acquire a #2 starting pitcher in exchange for Brett Cecil, Kyle Drabek and Nestor Molina. With the Jays having so many possible starters the trade will be a mix and match effort. This type of trade is similar to this years trade between the Jays and St. Louis in that the players traded are short term for the long term, quality for quantity. The Jays will look to acquire a win now pitcher in exchange for more players who are still developing. In addition the Jays could take on a larger salary while trading low cost players back.

Among position players who could be available we have the Travis Snider, Eric Thames log-jam. Also available could be Adam Lind and Anthony Gose. While Gose could be a big talent he is blocked by Rasmus.

The three major targets for the Jays are second base, closer and starter. A closer can be found in free agency. Kelly Johnson is a type A free agent and given his track record that might make it difficult for another team to commit a draft pick to a player whose performance is as variable as Johnson's is. Toronto would be the favourite to sign Johnson.

If the Jays are to improve by trade their number one trading priority would be a starting pitcher.

I mentioned above the Jays organizational meetings held recently. One of the biggest objectives of those meetings is to prioritize players in the Jays system. Who would we rather trade, Drew Hutchison or Nestor Molina?, Eric Thames or Travis Snider? What value do we put on each of our players? The scouting staff and the major league coaching staff will each have their opinions on these issues and AA has to distill it down to a value.

The other major part of the recent meetings has been to identify trade targets. It takes two to tango so identifying players who are likely to be available is an important part of the process. Does a team have too much payroll? Is a player about to get too expensive for a team? Is a team about to start rebuilding? Is there a hot shot rookie ready to take a veterans place? Is a player heading to free agency and the team needs to get value for them today? All of these questions help the Jays to develop their target list.


Now the Jays could be bluffing and they could go after a free agent pitcher, The Jays were rumoured to have seen a lot of CJ Wilson's starts this season. However there is nothing in AA's history or statements that suggest this is likely.

So which starting pitchers, other than the always mentioned Felix Hernandez, could be available? who would you have the Jays trade away? How different will the roster be in 2012? It should be an interesting winter.

In other Blue Jay news the Elias rankings are out according to MLB Trade Rumors. Kelly Johnson is a type A. Frank Francisco, Shawn Camp, Jose Molina and Jon Rauch are type B's.

Hot Stove Time | 193 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Paul D - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#246189) #

This is fun.

In terms of arb, I think Johnson, Molina and Francisco are locks to be offered arb.   I think Camp probably won't get offered anything.  Rauch is the only one I'm unsure about.
(And Frasor's a lock in Chicago)

Mike Green - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#246190) #
The money quote from the Chisholm article was, to my mind:

The Blue Jays have possessed a payroll of at least $70 million since 2006, but president Paul Beeston said it's possible the club could spend close to $140-150 million in the future. That's not expected to happen this season and it's likely the Blue Jays will need to see a jump in attendance before making that type of financial commitment

Possible?  Close to?  Making a gazillion off TV/cable/internet isn't enough?  Weasels.

It may be that the Red Sox will be cutting payroll this off-season, and that this club could compete with a payroll of $110 million or something.  Until then, I wish that the powers that be would stop the whispering about what they can and cannot afford.  Greed can be hidden from view, but the smell is pretty overpowering. 

TamRa - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#246191) #
fits better here:


MLBTR has the official elias ratings:

item - Kelly Johnson is a Type A - in other words, don't expect him back.

item - Dotel is a Type A, if he leaves as a free agent then that ups the Card's value in the trade, but Dotel has expressed a desire to return and odds are he'd accept any arbitration offer. if it's not offered, then that decreases their net value in the deal.

item - Francisco, Raush, Molina, and Camp are Type B (so is Frasor by the way) so assuming none of those accept arbitration, that's a significant haul even if it's a weak class.

With the Beede pick, that would give the Jays a potential for 8 picks in the first 50-60.


The question was asked in the other thread why I think being Type A means Johnson is gone - I think this because Johnson, while the best FA option, is not worth passing up TWO high draft picks to Alex.
TamRa - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#246192) #
Ypon review, I'd like to revise and amend - i see only three teams that might be a match to sign him who would be eligible to lose the first round pick:

1. Dodgers - very much a Coletti style signing
2. Tigers - if they let Guillen leave and prefer to not "go young"
3. Cardinals - Schumaker is hardly a fixture.

those are not slim chances but one has to admit you might lose him to a team who can't lose the first pick.

There's an argument he'd accept arbitration and try to build value - that would be out of our hands, but you'd simply be trading 2012 picks for 2013 picks in order to stopgap for a year and that's not a bad deal.
Gerry - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#246193) #

Tamra, it depends on your options at 2B.  If not Johnson then who?   The free agent pool at 2B is very thin.  Assuming you have to trade something to get a player of Johnson's value then the question can be re-framed as follows:

Which has the greater value, the players I have to trade to get a 2B vs the value of the draft picks, with one side of the ledger adjusted by the difference in value between Johnson and the new 2B?

To keep it simple lets say I can get a 2B, who I think will have the same value as Kelly Johnson, for Eric Thames.  Is Eric Thames more valuable than 2 draft picks?

That is the type of analysis that the front office has to perform.

uglyone - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#246194) #
Either way, Johnson being Type A and Hill type B makes this trade a win for the Jays.

But I still maintain that in AA's view, he was looking at the trade as a way to avoid giving up his first rounder to sign Johnson in the offseason, and so he'll look at Johnson as a free Type A acquisition now.

Basically, the trade lets him sign the best FA 2B, without sacrificing the pick that he'd otherwise be forced to cough up.
Gwyn - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#246196) #
Until then, I wish that the powers that be would stop the whispering about what they can and cannot afford. Greed can be hidden from view, but the smell is pretty overpowering.
Well said Mike, all this innuendo and obsfucation is becoming increasingly annoying from Beeston - I'm sure he's just doing what Rogers are telling him, but that doesn't make it any more palatable.

A couple of players I think could be interesting to consider for the Jays next year are Mark Buehrle (type B, rated #13 FA by fangraphs) and David DeJesus (type B, #23). I'm also going to be very interested to see what market develops for Erik Bedard and Joe Nathan and whether the Jays make a serious play for either of them.

85bluejay - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#246198) #

Regarding Johnson - I think his type A ranking makes him less attractive to teams & more likely to return to the Jays - maybe  teams may be willing to give up a 2nd  rd. pick to sign him

I would like the Jays to take a shot at Luis Valbuena of the Indians whom I think is out of options .

Gerry - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#246199) #
I would agree with Gwyn that Buehrle would be good to have in Toronto and assuming it's on a one year deal it would give time for the AA pitchers to develop.
Flex - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#246200) #
Basically, the trade lets him sign the best FA 2B, without sacrificing the pick that he'd otherwise be forced to cough up.

I think this is exactly right. And it makes me think the Jays F.O. was able to do analysis that foretold Johnson would be a Type A. And it may have involved a wand and a ball made of crystal.
85bluejay - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#246201) #

Gwyn,

I'm with you on both Buehrle and DeJesus.

Here's my Halloween prediction of the Jays 2012 opening day lineup:

 

Y.Escobar

D.DeJesus - 1 yr contract allowing him to rebuild his value while letting Snider start the year on the farm - I know this will be wildly unpopular but I like it

J.Bautista

L. Morrison

B. Lawrie

C. Rasmus

E.E

C. Synder - 1 yr deal similar to John Buck - Jays having lost Arencibia to a trade

L. Valbuena

 

Rotation:

R. Romero

T. Cahill

B. Morrow

M. Buehrle - 2 yr deal - if he gets a 3 yr deal from a team, then Bedard on a 1 yr deal

Open competition for 5th spot - McGowan-Drabek-Alvarez

Closer - J. Braxton - 1 yr deal his agent says he's looking for to rebuild his value.

 

 

 

 

Mike Green - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#246202) #
I imagine that Buehrle would want, and would get, more than a one-year deal.  He is worth considering anyways.

You might think that DeJesus would be low down on the list because he is a lett-handed hitting outfielder and the club already has Thames, Snider and Rasmus, in addition to Bautista and Davis.  However, if the club decided to move Bautista to first base, DeJesus probably plays well enough defensively to be a significant upgrade on Lind.  Interesting thought, Gwyn.
 

Forkball - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#246203) #
The question was asked in the other thread why I think being Type A means Johnson is gone - I think this because Johnson, while the best FA option, is not worth passing up TWO high draft picks to Alex.

He's barely cracked a .300 OBP 2 of the past 3 years and is 30 next year.  What teams are lining up for a player like Johnson?  I would think a really good team won't think he's good enough to play for them, and a developing team isn't going to give up a pick for him.  If it's still 2002 maybe this happens, but teams seem to hold onto picks for all but the obvious premium players.

Frankly, I can't imagine the Jays paying him $6 million or so next year (by way of an arbitration acceptance) but that seems to be the assumption by everyone.
Forkball - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#246204) #
Rosters for the rule 5 draft have to be set by December 5th.

Maybe it's a separate topic for a different day, but are the Jays facing any tough decisions?
Ron - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#246205) #
There goes my Gose+??? for Minor+Lowe trade. There aren't too many pitchers out there that you can pencil in for at least 185 innings a season. Despite his age, he's still an extreme GB pitcher. I would have liked to see him in a Jays uni on a 1 year contract for 5 million dollars.
Mylegacy - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#246206) #
Let Kelly go. Two picks thank you. IF - (unlikely - but IF) Johnson accepts arbitration then no problem we get him for one year and then in 2013 Hech forces Escobar to 2nd and we get our pick(s) with Johnson in 2013 instead of 2012.

However, I'm sure Kelly won't accept arbitration - SO - In 2012 - second base will (unless AA makes moves) be manned by McCoy and or Johnny Mac. UNTIL - Hech forces Escobar to 2nd - I'd say by the All-Star break. I'd much rather have Escobar than Johnson as out 2nd baseman going forward.

Any other problems - just ask...

raptorsaddict - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#246207) #
This article is like the opening of Spring Training for me, only way, way better. The Alex Anthopolous season has begun! Hurray - what a "treat"!
uglyone - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#246208) #
EE's option has been picked up, Rauch's option has been declined.
TamRa - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#246210) #
My guess, thoughts, whatever regarding free agency:

Need - Reserve catcher:
Kelly Shoppach, Ramon Castro, Chris Snyder, Jason Varitek, Ryan Doumit....some of these likely too expensive for the role but I'd be ok with any of them.

Need - 2B:
Assuming for the sake of this post that Johnson isn't back (and I acknowledge the logic of the counterargument by uglyone)
Assuming also that we are discussing a stopgap solution in anticipation of Hech eventually solving it long term..
Carlos Guillen (probably won't like the D) is an option; Jerry Hairston Jr has been a league average hitter assuming he can field it; Jamey Carroll is at a similar level and did play 2B this year; and even Hill if he doesn't work it out with the D'Backs

Need - Closer:

My first choice here, far and away, is Joe Nathan. Anyone else will be somewhat of a disappointment to me.

Need - Front-line starter:

Only four names interest me:

Darvish, for reasons often discussed

Oswalt, I think I've elaborated on this too

Bedard, I've always lukewarm on the idea of adding Bedard, but in this particular situation, I think he's a very nice fit. He can, assuming health, step in as the #2 and do very good work and if his fragile health becomes an issue, we are fortunate to have plenty of depth to step into the void.

Harden, similar explanation to Bedard - but recognizing that the buzz is he and the A's are in love with each other and he's not going anywhere else if he can help it.

No other FA starting pitcher interests me in the least. I'd rather watch the in-house guys develop.


As for trades, I'd be interested in taking a flyer on Gordon Beckham if the ChiSox are tired of him, there are a lot of SP which would be great to have but i must assume are not available so i'll let him surprise me if that happens.

Otherwise, I don't see a lot of objects of lust floating around that I think is realistic for me to get obsessed with.
TamRa - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#246211) #
Addindum - David Ardsma is apparently free too and that might not be a bad Plan B on the closer thing. You might get a nice favorable deal on a recovery year.
Thomas - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#246212) #
Buehrle has repeatedly expressed a desire to remain in the Midwest and has said St. Louis is one of the few destinations he'd consider leaving Chicago for. I don't know if the Cards really need a starter with Wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia, Lohse and Westbrook, but they could get creative if Pujols leaves (or even if he doesn't). Buehrle strikes me as the sort of guy you could take at his word, so I'd be surprised if he ended up in Toronto, although Toronto is more Midwest than New York, for example.
Gerry - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#246213) #
The Diamondbacks have declined Aaron Hill's option.
JB21 - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#246214) #
And CC just re-signed with the Yankees.
Glevin - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#246215) #
"I imagine that Buehrle would want, and would get, more than a one-year deal. He is worth considering anyways."

I think he'd be a disaster in the AL East. He just doesn't have very good stuff and relies on keeping teams off balance. It works when you face aggressive teams and weak lineups in general. His career ERAs against Boston and New York are 4.49 and 6.38. I also don't really get the point of a guy like that. If the Jays want to contend, they need to go get a #1 or #2 starter. If the Jays want to build for down the road, they have a number of pitchers they can try to develop.

electric carrot - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#246216) #
I agree with Glevin about Buehrle. I think it's a perfect time to go out and get Darvish.  Both the Yanks and Red Sox are gun shy.  Let's roll the dice and grab this guy. I think in a city like Toronto the guy brings new people to the ballpark.
The_Game - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#246217) #
The Jays had been trying to acquire Kelly Johnson for years for a reason. Now that they finally have, I doubt they'll let him get away (and his Type A status makes it less likely for another team to give him a good FA offer).

I fully expect KJ to be the starting 2B next season for them, one way or another.
TamRa - Monday, October 31 2011 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#246218) #
Fangraphs has a Top 50 FA list.

Sabathia was #3 and he's off the market so bump everyone else up one from what I'm about to say:

Johnson is #20, the highest ranked 2B. Hill is 35, Santiago 42, and Ellis is 46

Francisco at #48 is the only other Blue Jay


TamRa - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 02:45 AM EDT (#246219) #
MLBTR's top 50, with predictions:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/10/2012-top-50-free-agents-1.html

 - Jays relevant content quoted

1.  Albert Pujols - Cardinals.  The Cubs, Blue Jays, Orioles, Mariners, Rangers, Marlins, Nationals, and Dodgers are other potential suitors, but a significant premium would be required to lure away the longtime Cardinal.

2.  Prince Fielder - Mariners.  Fielder has the same potential suitors as Pujols

4.  C.J. Wilson - Nationals.  Front-of-the-rotation starting pitching is a big need for many teams including the Nationals, Marlins, Royals, Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs.

5.  Yu Darvish - Blue Jays.  Darvish is not technically a free agent, and in fact he hasn't even decided about being posted at this point.  If he does come over from Japan, a $100MM commitment will likely be required.  The Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Nationals, Mariners, and Royals could put in bids, and it wouldn't be surprising to see a few "mystery teams" enter the fray.

13.  David Ortiz - Blue Jays.  Ortiz backed off from his comments about Red Sox drama, andthere's a limited market for an expensive player with no ability to play defense.  Still, he'd give Toronto's offense a nice boost without requiring more than a two-year deal.  That might leave Edwin Encarnacion having to play a significant amount of first base, however.

23.  Kelly Johnson - Dodgers.  Johnson could provide the Dodgers some offense from second base, though the Blue Jays and Tigers could also be in the mix.

28.  Erik Bedard - Blue Jays.  If the Blue Jays hit on a wild card like Bedard and also land Darvish, they'd have a fearsome rotation.  Bedard is a healthy free agent for the first time, and perhaps he'll lean toward his native Canada.

-----------
I'm still not sold that Ortiz is coming at the price he'll want, and while i like both Darvish and Bedard, I'd be pretty shocked if we added both unless Morrow was involved in a trade somehow.

Johnson to the Dodgers matches my own hunch.

TamRa - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 03:29 AM EDT (#246220) #
Maybe it's a separate topic for a different day, but are the Jays facing any tough decisions?

per the roster here:

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=tor

there are 37 spots filled, plus two on the 60 day DL minus five free agents makes a total of 34 and 6 open spots.

Molina, d'Arnaud, and McDade are locks to be added.

guys on the bubble include Mastroianni, Chavez, McCoy, and Farina (recovering from TJS) - Teahen maybe but not til spring

So with three spots open, the competitors are:

Pitchers: Randy Boone, Bobby Ray, Reider Gonzalez, Evan Crawford, Andrew Liebel, Matt Wright, Frank Gailey, Scott Gracey, Matt Daley, Sean Soffitt, John Anderson, Marcus Walden


Of that crowd only Crawford and Wright seem intriguing and burning spots on minor league relievers only goes so far.

Hitters: Scott Campbell, Jon Diaz, John Tolisano, Mark Sobolewski, Kevin Ahrens, Justin Jackson, Brad McElroy, Brad Van Kirk, Chris Hopkins, Jon Talley, Brian Kervin, Balbino Fuenmayor

Frankly, I can't imagine any of those guys being a priority.

So, in summation - no, there are not tough choices, IMO.
Forkball - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#246221) #
Thanks for the summary.

Looks like there's room for a flier or two on a reliever in the Rule 5 draft, but then again the Jays aren't lacking in quantity for the bullpen, it's a quality issue.

John Northey - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#246223) #
If Ortiz isn't offered arbitration then he has a shot at coming here, but I cannot imagine AA giving up a first round, or even 2nd round pick for an old DH.
Gerry - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#246224) #

The 40 man roster needs to leave room for signing a 2B, a catcher, and at least 2 relievers.  It needs to be at 35 or 36 to leave room for the incoming.

If AA was to do a 3 for 1 trade it would free up 40 man roster room.

jerjapan - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#246225) #
If Ortiz isn't offered arbitration then he has a shot at coming here, but I cannot imagine AA giving up a first round, or even 2nd round pick for an old DH.   True enough.  The only way this would make sense is if AA signed multiple free agents, meaning we give up increasingly lower draft picks, but based on everything he's been saying in the press, I can't see this happening.  
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#246226) #
Free agent signings typically occur after the Rule 5 draft, so there is unlikely to be a roster problem for that purpose anyway. 

It should be noted that the key move for the Cardinals'  season was probably the signing of Lance Berkman. He was a 35 year old coming off two decline years, with 2010 more severe than 2009, and he had been a first baseman for many years.  The Cardinals, I guess, recognized that he was actually still a workable outfielder after all these years (he had actually been a centerfielder for one year when he was 26), and he gave them a year which would fit in with the prime of his great career.

Shane - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#246229) #

"There goes my Gose+??? for Minor+Lowe trade."

You'd trade Gose, plus for Derek Lowe, plus? Yikes. Not me. The Braves had been trying to give him away for two years apparently. And never for Gose. Sure, maybe if you can package him with others for a James Shields type.

sam - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#246230) #
I have an odd feeling about this offseason. I get that fans might be disappointed if there aren't any big moves, but at the same time this expectation creates a sort of lose-lose situation. I mean, if we don't make any significant moves, we lose. But if we do, we're likely to give up some pretty good players for someone who'll likely come with question marks as well. I think then the margin of success versus failure or dissatisfaction is quite small. I mean I would be more than excited if the Jays traded for Felix Hernandez, but it gets me nervous just thinking about what we would have to give up. Do any other Jays fans feel the same?

I've created a list of players on the 40-man that I just can't see being moved. Does anyone else think any other players might be on this list?

Ricky Romero
Jose Bautista
Brett Lawrie

Tidbit of ridiculous information. I have a friend who ran into a Blue Jays baseball official at an airport. I guess they've exchanged emails and messages and whatnot since then. At one point, the Tyler Beede non-signing was questioned and the Blue Jays executive said there was a plan or long-term reason behind it. I guess what he likely meant was the Jays have a bonus structure that they'd like to keep intact, or as I've convinced myself to believe, The Jays set their price knowing that they'd get the pick the following year and have a safety net of sorts if they decide to pursue a Type-A free agent. That Type-A free agent is likely Prince Fielder and they intend to sign him.

Sorry, it's been a while since the Jays have played. One needs to dream.
Shaker - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#246231) #

I don't think either Y Escobar or H Alvarez get moved this off-season.

I also don't think signing Prince is the best use of our cash.  Thome, Papi, Hafner, Dunn, Morales, LoMo, etc etc all offer enough with the bat at a far, FAR smaller financial commitment.  Put the cash to work on starting pitching.

Speaking of pitching and Alvarez...I think he profiles as a very nice Closer for us in 2012.  He's a 2-pitch pitcher who doesn't walk anyone.  He's ultra low cost, hitters haven't had much exposure to him and I'm (hoping and) suggesting he's fearless. 

I understand 180+ IP from a starter is more valuable then 60 high leverage IP, but I think Mo, Paps, Feliz have all contributed tons to their team's success and I think Alvarez could fit the bill for us, too.


John Northey - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#246232) #
Actually, I suspect the Jays front office decided Hill would not be offered arbitration, thus if he left they got nada. But they also knew they'd offer Johnson arbitration so if he left they'd get 1 or 2 picks depending (2 picks is what it ended up as).

So they can either sign Johnson, sign Hill and let Johnson go, or ignore both and look for a 3rd option while gaining 2 picks. Much better than what it would've been - sign Johnson and potentially lose a pick and/or lose Hill and get nada.
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#246233) #
Sam, if the amount of a bonus for Beede has any significance in the decision whether to sign a free-agent with the likely price tag of a Prince Fielder, someone at head office has a problem with scale.  Like I said earlier, the whisper campaign coming from Rogers and their minions about money is irritating. Just get on with it. 
Jonny German - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#246234) #
But if we do [make some significant moves], we're likely to give up some pretty good players for someone who'll likely come with question marks as well.

Sure. It's clearly already happened, with the Marcum for Lawrie trade last year. It's a question of accepting that no deal is without risk, and of trusting AA to make good assessments. His trading record thus far is awfully good, with only the Napoli-Francisco move as one that was clearly a bad idea from when it was made (and I do mean from when it was made. It turned out even worse than expected, but it was entirely reasonable to expect it to turn out badly).
Magpie - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#246235) #
You'd trade Gose, plus for Derek Lowe, plus? Yikes.

I'd love to pile on - Derek Lowe?! - but I once suggested that acquiring Carlos Silva would be a fine idea. My penance is not yet complete.
Shaker - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#246236) #

Huh?  I don't get the hate for M Buerhle...

His OPS+ the last 5 years (starting with 2011): 117, 100, 122, 121, 130 in (long ago) 2007.  His worst season he was league average.  By definition - with 5 starting pitchers on a staff - he was a #3 in his worst season.

His ERA vs BOS and NYY doesn't look good, but BOS scored 5.4 runs per game this year, so his ERA is basically 1 run lower than average against them.

I have no idea whether he wants to come here, but if we lose out on Darvish, I don't know why we wouldn't want him.

John Northey - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#246237) #
The 'you need a truck of amazing' to get players...
Romero, Bautista, Lawrie are the easy ones.

Others unlikely to be traded and why...
Alvarez due to age
Escobar due to contract ($5 mil a year with 2 team option years? Wow)
Drabek, Morrow & McGowan due to potential vs what they have shown (no way you get proper value)
Gose, the AA pitchers, other top prospects unless some crack BA's top 10 due to difficulty in getting full value for a prospect - it is rare another team sees them as more valuable than you see them.

That is why trades are so hard to make work. You need something that another team sees as more valuable than you see it as being, or you need to have a surplus where another team has a shortage and vice-versa. I suspect one of Snider or Thames will be traded this winter, as will some prospects who AA and team just don't see as having the potential of the others. Look to guys who got a cup of coffee as high probably trade bait (Mastroianni, Loewen, Cooper, Farquhar, Carreno, Mills). I'd toss in Perez there too but he was over 60 IP. These guys might be toss ins to finish a deal that is stuck, or done as 'our small guy for your small guy' type things. Carreno & Perez will be more expensive than the others, but they are all good finishing touches to a trade.
Jonny German - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#246238) #
Bold prediction: Given 300+ PA each, Eric Thames will out-hit Edwin Encarnacion in 2012. I hope, contrary to the viewpoints of some here, that AA does not see EE as an important piece and that he is not inclined to trade Thames for a bag of beans.
92-93 - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#246239) #
It's taken 2+ years, but I see people are starting to realize the shenanigans Beeston is up to. The man has been selling lies since the day he took the job.
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#246240) #
Bolder prediction: both Thames and EE would outhit Lind if all were given 300+ PAs.  Personally, I would imagine that EE's role ought to be as a platoon DH/corner IF back-up, and that he could easily get 300 PAs in that role (most of it against LHP).  If I have the role right, I don't see EE competing much with Thames for playing time.
92-93 - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#246241) #
"with only the Napoli-Francisco move as one that was clearly a bad idea from when it was made"

Except it wasn't.
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#246242) #
We've had this one out before.  Most of us had the same view as Jonny of the Napoli-Francisco trade at the time.  There are some people who see a possibly good closer as having very significant value.  Let's just agree to disagree about that.
Paul D - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#246243) #
You'd trade Gose, plus for Derek Lowe, plus? Yikes.

This isn't fair.  The trade suggestion had Mike Minor coming back to Toronto.
Ron - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#246244) #
You'd trade Gose, plus for Derek Lowe, plus?

I'm not sure what you mean by that.

My original post was "There goes my Gose+??? for Minor+Lowe trade". Basically what I said was Gose plus other players/prospects for Mike Minor and Derek Lowe. It's a trade that would have worked for both teams. The Braves have the most quality starting pitching depth and they could use a highly regarded CF/OF in their system. Even with Lowe shipped to the Indians, I could still picture a Gose for Minor trade.
92-93 - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#246245) #
There's a big difference between agreeing to disagree and saying that your opinion is "clearly" the right one.

And if you want to argue about the value of relievers, here's my side. Brandon League brought the Jays Brandon Morrow, and Dotel/Frasor/Rzepczynski + a prospect many think is headed to the bullpen landed a previously thought to be untouchable CF talent. Looks to me like you don't even need to be a good closer to have significant value.
Jonny German - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#246246) #
92-93 can count the Vernon Wells trade as AA's only real trading misstep, the rest of us can count Napoli-Francisco.
John Northey - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#246247) #
The one thing we can all agree on is that none of us will predict accurately what AA's next big trade will be. No one saw the Escobar, Rasmus, or Lawrie (although some dreamed of Lawrie) deals coming afaik, nor the Morrow one.

If I'm going to guess, I'd guess he is hunting for an undervalued/blocked/attitude issue 25 or younger middle infielder to play 2B, same for LF and 1B (probably guys currently in CF and 3B respectively as he seems to like shifting guys leftward on the defensive spectrum, ie: from SS to 2B to CF to 3B to RF to LF to 1B). He'll hunt for a strong starting pitcher but that is a lot harder to find unless they win the Darvish lottery.
Paul D - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#246248) #

I thinkit's unlikely, but I read on primer yesterday that Cleveland might want to shift Cabrera to 2b, and would therefore be willing to move Chisenhall.

John Northey - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#246249) #
An interesting note: the gold gloves seem to have changed this year. It will be televised and they are listing the 3 nominees for each position in each league at http://www.espnmediazone3.com/us/2011/10/31/espn2-to-televise-first-ever-rawlings-gold-glove-awards-show/

No Jays on the list, which isn't a shock. Given no Jeter one wonders if the coaches/managers are no longer voting for it.
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#246250) #
The AL right-fielder nominees are pretty poor.  DeJesus was probably the best of the lot (and didn't get nominated), but all three of the centerfielder nominees (Austin Jackson, Ellsbury, Bourjos) and at least two of the left-field nominees (Gardner and Fuld) were miles better than any of the right-field nominees.  A few years ago they did not divide the outfield and the Gardner, Bourjos, Ellsbury team would have been very worthy choices.
92-93 - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#246251) #
"92-93 can count the Vernon Wells trade as AA's only real trading misstep, the rest of us can count Napoli-Francisco."

If the rest of you want to live in the same delusional world as Jonny where he apparently thinks I considered the Wells deal a misstep, that's fine by me.

I'll be over here living in reality where the Jays saved 1.8m by trading a player who was superfluous to their roster to the point of hindrance to acquire one of the league's best relievers, an area of weakness, and one from which the Jays eventually dealt assets to acquire Colby Rasmus.
markham_jay - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#246252) #
I didn't think the Napoli-Francisco trade was that bad either when I first heard it.  I would have liked to have seen Napoli in the lineup but we already had Lind, Molina, and JP all sharing duties at his positions (not to mention EE at 1B and DH as the season wore on although I can't remember if he ever figured into those plans last winter).  I thought one of the rationales behind the trade, besides getting another closer, was to open up innings for JP so that the Jays could see what kind of player they had in him.  I can accept the thinking that drove the trade even if the results weren't all there.
Thomas - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#246253) #
It's disingenuous to pretend that Francisco's presence influenced Toronto's decision to make the Rasmus deal. That trade would have been made every day of the week, regardless of whether the team had Francisco at the back or whether Janssen became the closer and Beck or Farquhar was promoted and spent the last two months of the season of the year in the bullpen (or whether the team simply chose to keep Miller or Walters as the seventh reliever if they really felt those two players weren't ready).

Rzepczynski and Dotel didn't gain value in the eyes of the Cardinals because of Francisco and a team middling at .500 wouldn't have let one less late inning reliever stop them from getting Rasmus.
greenfrog - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#246254) #
LaCava turned down the O's GM job and will remain as Toronto's assistant GM! Hurrah! (I'm sure he'll land a GM job eventually, but for now this is good news.)

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Tony-LaCava-Baltimore-Orioles-GM-search-Toronto-Blue-Jays-110111
Craig B - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#246255) #
Great news on LaCava.

What reason is there to think Yu Darvish might end up in Toronto? I am seeing this suggested a lot and it puzzles me. Is there any indication that Rogers have made any changes to the budget or to budget policy? He's not affordable in the current picture...
Gerry - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#246256) #
Add me to the throng who are delighted Tony LaCava is staying. I have talked with LaCava many times over the last few years and he is invariably polite and anxious to help me out.
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#246259) #
He's not affordable in the current picture

I haven't seen any credible account from Rogers about what they are in fact prepared to spend annually.  I do know that the club is reluctant to hand out substantial long-term contracts to pitchers (with Romero's contract not qualifying as substantial).  I must admit that I find the idea somewhat inconsistent with the idea that not enough money was thrown at Chapman. There must be a description for this kind of player in poker...I won't sign Halladay for 7 years at 20 million (say), but I will throw a $35 million bonus at Chapman (what do you call it when someone sells short on pocket rockets?)
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, November 01 2011 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#246263) #
The Napoli / Francisco's deal facilitated the acquisition of Colby Rasmus, by letting A.A. deal from a position of strength - his Bullpen.   Francisco, Rauch, Dotel, Frasor, Janssen, Litsch, Rzepczynski represented to other dependable arms.   It let A.A. do his magic.  The deal let us find out about Henderson Alvarez, Dustin McGowan, Joel Carreno, Chad Beck amongst others.   All is related, nothing stands alone - grassy knoll theory.
Mick Doherty - Wednesday, November 02 2011 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#246269) #

I didn't think the Napoli-Francisco trade was that bad either

Oh, *I* did -- I remember clearly thinking "what the hell are the Rangers doing?"  (Clearly I was wrong about that, and happy to have been so, but at the time ...)

It's all a matter of perspective, and hometown bias rules in that regard/

dan gordon - Wednesday, November 02 2011 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#246272) #
Sabathia has signed a contract extension with the Yankees.  CJ Wilson says he probably will stay with Texas.  Derek Lowe has been traded to Cleveland for a single A prospect. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 02 2011 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#246273) #
Anybody else have low-level interest in Andrew Brackman?  His recovery from TJ has been very uneven, but I see enough there that I wouldn't be shocked if he emerged as a relief ace in a year or two. 
Shane - Wednesday, November 02 2011 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#246274) #

"I must admit that I find the idea somewhat inconsistent with the idea that not enough money was thrown at Chapman."

Well. AA did say he wished that he'd had more information on Chapman at the time, because he would have been more confident, and would have offered more and acquired Chapman.

---------------------

"You'd trade Gose, plus for Derek Lowe, plus?"

I'm not sure what you mean by that.

My original post was "There goes my Gose+??? for Minor+Lowe trade". Basically what I said was Gose plus other players/prospects for Mike Minor and Derek Lowe."

Sorry bud, missed the original which meant you meant Mike Minor, thought you meant just a minor leaguer. My bad.

bpoz - Wednesday, November 02 2011 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#246276) #
I admit I liked the Napoli for FF trade. When we got Napoli I should have checked his carreer numbers, because I under valued him. I just thought that both teams were giving up expensive under achievers.

LAA preferred Mathis to Napoli, so he would not get the opportunity. With the Texas environment favoring hitters, that helped Napoli and he took advantage. Being out of Texas should have favored FF as a pitcher but he was unable to take full advantage of that.
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 02 2011 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#246282) #
Hechavarria hasn't played in the AFL since Thursday, and he's not in the lineup today. 
Flex - Wednesday, November 02 2011 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#246285) #
Something I haven't seen discussed much, if at all, is the changes brought by Bruce Walton last year to the program for Blue Jays pitchers, and what affect that might have had on the staff.

As I recall, he wanted to reduce the amount of off-day throwing, and I think (don't recall exactly) that he reduced the amount of throwing in the off-season. I know he was on record as wanting to minimize the strain on arms, in the hopes that would lead to fewer injuries.

What I wonder is whether that made any contribution to the slow starts for Francisco and Cecil, and maybe even Morrow. Has anyone heard whether things are going to be different going into this off-season?
mathesond - Wednesday, November 02 2011 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#246286) #
And in other Hot Stove news...

"Industry insiders say that Wells could have gotten a five- or six-month contract if he had opted out, and he even would have received an invitation to spring training, where people like you and me have to pay our own way. Instead, hes going to stay with the Angels for the next three years, leaving all sorts of money on the table."
bpoz - Wednesday, November 02 2011 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#246287) #
I don't understand this Wells article. IMO he had a bad year. By that I mean that every 3rd year I expect him to hit 30 Hr & about 100Rbi.

So I don't think he is worth $63mil over 3 years. So I conclude it was a joke.
Mick Doherty - Wednesday, November 02 2011 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#246288) #

"Industry insiders say that Wells could have gotten a five- or six-month contract if he had opted out, and he even would have received an invitation to spring training ..."

Yeah, this is CLEARLY irony. Poorly done and barely recognizeable. Guy has no chance of being called up by The Onion.

The_Game - Wednesday, November 02 2011 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#246289) #
I'll be over here living in reality where the Jays saved 1.8m by trading a player who was superfluous to their roster to the point of hindrance
Napoli wasn't a hindrance, he had the 2nd best career OPS+ on the team for the four days he was in the organization. He likely would have broken out offensively in much the same way in Toronto, allowing the Jays to trade him for significantly more than they did or to simply keep him (as it's not like they have a better 1B or DH option right now, or even a good option at those positions).
Gerry - Wednesday, November 02 2011 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#246290) #
According to a tweet from Jerry Crasnick, John McDonald has signed a two year deal to return to the

the

the

Diamondbacks.

John left Toronto to get a chance to play in the playoffs and he may feel the D'Backs give him a better chance to repeat that.

The Jays have Johnny Mc Jr. in the body of Mike McCoy.
Chuck - Wednesday, November 02 2011 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#246291) #
I thought it a little over the top that McDonald's last contract was for two years (no offense to the man, but you know). And now yet another 2-year contract? Wow.

Being a good guy will have earned the man 9.8MM from ages 33 to 38. His career could have easily ended at age 32.
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 02 2011 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#246293) #
Amazingly, all the defensive metrics agree that McDonald had another very good year with the glove in 2011.  All told, he has been a little over replacement on average over the last 5-6 years and has been paid somewhat generously for that.  The good guy bonus, I guess.  Enos Cabell could have made a lot of money if he was born 20 years later...
Shane - Wednesday, November 02 2011 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#246294) #

"Napoli wasn't a hindrance, he had the 2nd best career OPS+ on the team for the four days he was in the organization."

That Wells was even traded, and without having to absorb almost any money, blew me away (as it did for everybody in North America), but that Napoli was coming back as the return - Amazing. I just figured, it's Napoli and all his goodies, it seemed totally obvious that, yes, Anthopoulos has been targeting this guy to build around and he got 'em (just like he later successfully did w/ Lawrie & Rasmus) , 'this line-up is going to be awesome'. Who knows how he'll fit him, but AA's got a plan. (Plus I have always had little excitement for Lind, so maybe time split at 1B and some C) And then a couple days later, gone. And what was coming back wasn't a building block piece at all. It felt like AA didn't value Napoli all that much. AA is excellent, but that was disapointing.

Nick Holmes - Wednesday, November 02 2011 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#246295) #
Good for Johnny Mc! And good for the Jays, who did need to move on...
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, November 02 2011 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#246297) #

...And what was coming back wasn't a building block piece...but that was disapointing.

No trade ever appears fair when one player(s) has a career year and the other(s) doesn't/don't.   How much of the season did this team go with a short Bench (3-man) and an 8-man Bullpen?   Backup outfielder (Patterson), Infield (McDonald), Catcher (Molina) were the main choice.  Where would a 29-year old, good bat, poor defense at best position, play with Lind, Arencibia and Encarnacion slated for major playing time?  With Frasor, Rauch and Dotel being our closing committee, Frank Francisco looked like a big upgrade.   If A.A. can, Francisco is back., which I don't mind.

Shane - Wednesday, November 02 2011 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#246299) #

No trade ever appears fair when one player(s) has a career year and the other(s) doesn't/don't.  

Nah. Like I was saying in the paragraph, I liked Napoli just the way he was before an April regular season game was even played.

Shane - Wednesday, November 02 2011 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#246300) #

...And

Where would a 29-year old, good bat, poor defense at best position, play with Lind, Arencibia and Encarnacion slated for major playing time? 

Where? Easy. He could have split time anywhere between C & 1B & DH. Anthopoulos apparenty acquired Napoli to be an a asset or commodity he could flip for something else he wanted. If AA had valued Napoli more it appears, he could have done anything with Encarnacion's AB's slot and given em to Napoli, or kept Encarnacion and flipped Lind maybe. Again, i'm not bitching here, before anyone reads half of this and races to write that that's what i'm saying. I just said, that I and how it likely felt to many: That when AA acquired Napoli, i'd assumed he'd coveted him, and already had a plan(s) of how he was going to further construct his line-up with Napoli in it. But, that's not what the good man had in mind.

sweat - Wednesday, November 02 2011 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#246301) #
Congratulations, baseball hipster.
Napoli was going to take playing time away from Lind, JPA and Encarnacian.  AA was right to move him, perhaps it should have been for a little more.  Nobody thought the guy was going to turn into Barry Bonds for the year.

BlueJayWay - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 12:48 AM EDT (#246302) #
Napoli was worth more than a reliever even before he went and had a career year (which, by the way, shouldn't have come as that much of a surprise, since he was getting out of Anaheim and going to the Texas bandbox).
Shane - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 01:40 AM EDT (#246303) #

"Congratulations, baseball hipster."

Easy. Don't be a dick. Encarnacian? (To which you spelled wrong) You that big a fan of Encarnacion? Nobody else was GM wise. He had just been signed to a 1 yr deal. If the Wells deal had come about beforehand Edwin Encarnacion wouldn't have even been bothered with likely. And Lind vs. lefties? There couldn't have been AB's there for a righty slugger? You ever hear of rotating? Napoli was already a very good bat before this year. Check out some stats smart mouth. And like I said, when he was acquired, I assumed it was to stay, and that AA had a plan to mix everyone in, or other moves were to come. Try reading.  

Magpie - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 02:06 AM EDT (#246305) #
The Jays have Johnny Mc Jr. in the body of Mike McCoy.

Except McCoy can't really play shortstop (the fact that they put him there from time to time notwithstanding). And he gives you even less with the bat.
bball12 - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 06:24 AM EDT (#246306) #
The Jays have Johnny Mac Jr. in Mike McCoy.

Is that something to be happy about?

AA has alot of moves up his sleeve - lets hope we start seeing some of them in the next 2 months.



greenfrog - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 08:48 AM EDT (#246307) #
I wonder if the D-Backs (like the Jays) envisioned keeping McDonald as sort of a player/coach, transitioning into a full-time coach over the next few years. It's too bad the Jays couldn't keep him in the organization, but the 37-year-old didn't really fit all that well on the 2012 roster, in my view.
The_Game - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#246308) #
McCoy's fine as a utility guy and likely to be a better player going forward than McDonald anyway. They don't need to waste money upgrading there.
Thomas - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#246309) #
I wouldn't have minded seeing McDonald back, but I wouldn't have wanted to see two years and I think he made the right choice in taking that offer from Arizona.

McCoy shouldn't be our backup infielder. He's a serviceable 27th man and Triple-A veteran, but not the ideal primary bench player (at least in terms of his offensive and defensive skill, his versatility is clearly a big attribute).
Mike Green - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#246310) #
Agreed.  With Rasmus and Davis on the big-league club, and Gose available later in the season if both should be injured at the same time, the ability to play centerfield (and not particularly well) is not the key point for the bench player in the McDonald role.  You need to have at least two players (and ideally one emergency) who can play shortstop.  McCoy would qualify as the emergency and really does not have an immediate role given the personnel currently on the club and close by.  I suppose that may change by March. 
The_Game - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#246311) #
So we're going to go out and pay a fringe SS to give us slightly better backup production than McCoy? Seems like a waste, McCoy is decent enough with the glove that this isn't a need.
Mike Green - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#246312) #
AA ought to.  Hechavarria does not seem to be anywhere near ready after a rough time in Arizona. You need to have a better answer than "Mike McCoy" if Escobar is hurt, or needs a day off.  It is worth spending $1 million to $1.5 million to get that answer, particularly when the club is not backed up at second base either. 

This is the kind of thing that the club must do if it actually intends to compete in 2012. 

bpoz - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#246313) #
Thanks Mick D. So that was CLEARLY irony. OK and sorry to go so deeply into it. So he actually meant months not years ie not an error, YES because he then included the ST invitation.

Well he is either a genius or a work in progress, he sure got me curious.

Other comments are causing me to be confused due to my unfamiliarity with the meaning of the words.
I was not sure if "hipster" was a compliment or insult. Any was I agreed with Shane, so I could also be a hipster or one in progress. Stat Nerd is an insult, I believe, I would love to have those abilities, and I do appreciate those who do.

Gerry, if all your dates are correct, there is little time between Dec 5-8 regarding the Rule 5 draft. I suppose if someone is at 40 by the 5th and they sign a FA before the 8th then they have to remove someone off the 40 man. He would have to clear waivers/be picked up by someone. There may be complications and creation of opportunities.
John Northey - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#246314) #
Well, utility infielder I'd rank a bit behind finding a full-time 2B, improving in LF, 1B, DH, and starting pitching. Once those are taken care of then finding someone better than Mike McCoy as a backup becomes a top concern.

John McDonald has been good, but his last 2 year deal seemed to be too long and too much for what he brings to the table. What is funny is FanGraphs lists McDonald as being worth $5.2 million over his last 2 years (vs salary of about $3 mil iirc) after being -$3.2 the previous 2 years.

I figure there has to be a few defense only SS's out there if the Jays really, really want one.
rpriske - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#246315) #
BlueJays Blue Jays-Official .@BlueJays announce that OF ADAM LOEWEN and LHP JESSE CARLSON have been outrighted off the 40-man roster.
Beyonder - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#246316) #

Hechavarria does not seem to be anywhere near ready after a rough time in Arizona.

Hech may not be ready, but I wouldn't put too much stock in the 54 ABs he's had in Arizona.  I don't even know whether I would characterize his .241 average in the AFL as "rough".  I agree with you that he's not close to major-league ready though.

If we are, however, worried about Hech, we should be (at least) equally concerned about Gose's performance in Arizona.  After a hot start, he's now batting only .250 (despite getting trotted out there everyday), which is consistent with pretty much every batting line he has ever posted.  While it's always possible that something clicks for AG and he learns to hit or otherwise get on base, after three full years in the minors, the smart money says we've got a pretty accurate assessment of what he's capable of offensively.   Apart from the stolen base numbers, it's pretty underwhelming stuff.   

SK in NJ - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#246317) #

Darvish should be the top target. He will be very expensive (posting free + contract), but he will likely bring some incremental revenue back via Japan if Ichiro, Dice-K, etc, are any indication and that might make it easier to convince Rogers to dust off their wallets and spend something. Plus, he won't cost the team a pick, he could potentially become an impact player right away, and not many teams will be after him due to the price. This is an ideal situation for both the team and the cheapos at Rogers.

Gerry - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#246318) #

Its not a surprise that Loewen passed through waivers.  I do think he has a chance to make it but he needs another year in AAA to tighten his swing.

I assume Loewen could have elected free agency when he passed through waivers, or maybe he still can.

Mike Green - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#246319) #
Gose is a different case from Hechavarria.  He seems to walk enough and hit for enough power that if worse came to worse, and he was called up in May due to a rash of injuries, he would hit at least as well as Gary Pettis and make a decent contribution.  Hechavarria hasn't yet displayed any of the secondary offensive skills.  A depth chart of Rasmus/Davis/Gose is way, way more confidence-producing than Escobar/McCoy/Hechavarria.  If Rasmus is hurt early and out for the season, you might very well call up Gose and platoon them.  If Escobar is hurt early and out for the season, you might as well give it up as things currently stand. 

I agree though that is best for both Hechavarria and Gose to spend a considerable amount of time in the minors.

greenfrog - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#246320) #
Assuming Darvish gets posted, there will be plenty of competition for his services - everybody wants good starting pitching. My guess is the winning bid will come from a team used to burning some cash - probably one of the big-spending teams like the Yankees and Red Sox (I could see the nouveau riche Rangers getting involved).

Both Hechavarria and Gose seem pretty raw (A-Hech especially). I think both should spend all of 2012 (at least) in the minors. The last thing we need is another very young player doing the prospect yo-yo between the minors and majors.

Here's a hypothetical scenario: AA offers Johnson arbitration. KJ declines and signs with another team. Should AA offer Hill a contract to play 2B, say, for $8-10M over two years?
rpriske - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#246321) #
I think Loewen will get Rule Fived. Maybe Carlson as well...
greenfrog - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#246322) #
Gose and Wes Etheridge are on the preliminary roster for the Nov 5 AFL Rising Stars Game. Hechavarria was not selected. Per Baseball America:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/winter-baseball/arizona-fall-league/2011/2612561.html
Ron - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#246323) #
If the Jays can't sign Darvishsefad, I wonder if they have any interest in Hisashi Iwakuma. He's going to be a free agent so no posting fee is required. You might be able to sign him for around 3yrs/15-18 million.
Beyonder - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#246324) #

I don't disagree that Gose could be called up and be not awful in a part-time role.  I expect though, that the same could be said of Hech.  If our baseline is John MacDonald, I expect Hech could perform a pretty reasonable imitation both at the plate and with the glove. 

The more interesting question for both of them offensively (and I realise this was not the one originally being discussed), is not whether they would be capable fill-ins, but whether they will ever become above average contributors as regulars at the major league level.  For Hech, the early results are not promising.  For Gose, after three years it would be nice to be able to point to even a slight upward trend in his ability to hit for average.  We can't (although the power bump was nice to see). 

I'm not giving up on either.  I just think we need to assess what our fall backs are if either do not pan out.  Right now at least at centre field we have a (pretty fantastic) back up plan in Marisnick.  At SS/2b the cupboards are bare.  If AA cannot acquire a long-term solution this off season in a trade, I would be happy to see him convert some of our pitching assets into a blue chip prospect(s) at short or 2b

The_Game - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#246325) #
You need to have a better answer than "Mike McCoy" if Escobar is hurt, or needs a day off.

Why? We just spent a half decade with a near-replacement level infielder who can't hit at all as a backup. What's the difference between that and Mike McCoy? A few runs over a full season, maybe, but even that could be pushing it.
Original Ryan - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#246326) #
I think Loewen will get Rule Fived. Maybe Carlson as well...

I doubt it. If a team wanted one of those guys, they could have claimed him off waivers. No team bothered to do so.

92-93 - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#246327) #
"If AA had valued Napoli more it appears, he could have done anything with Encarnacion's AB's slot and given em to Napoli"

Except that he had just signed EE as a FA and promised him everyday ABs. If people are worried about AA's trade reputation then you have to be concerned with his relationship with agents. Keeping Napoli would have meant an eventual bench of McDonald, Molina, Rivera, and Napoli, which isn't feasible. Otherwise Napoli's presence would have been keeping Lawrie in the minors, which was not a problem AA wanted to run into.

You can recognize that the Jays would've been better off keeping Napoli without saying the trade was a clear cut loss when it was consummated.
92-93 - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#246328) #
Alex Gonzalez would be a much better fit on the bench than Mike McCoy.
Mike Green - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#246329) #
If you believe that Mike McCoy can play shortstop effectively on a full-time basis without costing the team 15-25 runs per season with the glove, then there is no problem.  If you believe that his defence at short is unacceptable on anything but an emergency basis, there is a problem.  The numbers are for a very small sample but do not suggest that there is a problem of this magnitude.  However, some of us have formed the opinion from watching that there is.

I am also of the belief that trotting out a very poor defensive shortstop does not help the confidence of young pitchers. 



greenfrog - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#246330) #
I'm with Mike Green on this one. I'm a big believer in strong up-the-middle defence. I do not think McCoy should be playing SS on anything more than an emergency basis.
Lylemcr - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#246332) #

I don't understand the Napoli-Franscisco debate.

1. We had a catcher already and we needed to see what he could do this year.  We also had a first baseman(lind) and DH(EE).  Where does he fit in the plans?

2. Offense was not the issue this year.  Pitching was.  AA needed to address this need.

3. If Napoli was in Toronto, who would say that he would have the same year.  He and Dwayne Murphy might have not meshed.  If he hit what he hit in 2010, his numbers would have looked just like JPA.  Meh....

Yes, it was not a great trade, but based on needs, it made sense.  I would do the trade again based on the same knowledge as I had last year. 

I also think that Napoli is going to get a big contract now and based on his career numbers, I am not sure he is going to be worth it.  He is not a great defensive catcher.  I would rather take my chances on JPA and wait for D'Anard.  We need to spend the money on the bullpen, a 2 bagger and one starter. 

greenfrog - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#246333) #
Latin American signing announcement (per BA):

"The Blue Jays have signed Jesus Tinoco, a 16-year-old righthander from Venezuela.

"Tinoco, who is from Maturin, is 6-foot-3, 198 pounds with a loose arm, good delivery and a heavy fastball that touches 91 mph. Some scouts project him as a potential power pitcher and he already has advanced feel for his mid-to-high 70s curveball. Tinoco trained with Ciro Barrios, who also represented 2011 Blue Jays signings Wuilmer Becerra and Jesus Gonzalez, both outfielders."

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2011/11/blue-jays-reds-sign-venezuelan-pitchers/
Mike Green - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#246334) #
The problem is that Napoli was (prior to this year) a considerably better hitter than Lind, EE or JPA.  There was plenty of room for him to get 500 PAs without interfering with development. 
The_Game - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#246335) #
Well if they can convince Alex Gonzalez to be a backup while getting paid the same rate as John McDonald, that would be great. Don't see it happening.
92-93 - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#246336) #
No, there wasn't. Lind hit well enough vs. LHP in 2009 that it made sense to see how he could handle them going forward, and we had already gone through August/September watching Arencibia's progress blocked by John Buck. Unless your plan was to have a bench without a backup CF, the team couldn't break camp with McDonald, Molina, Rivera, and Napoli. Trading Napoli for Francisco was a better option than paying Rivera 5.25m to play for someone else, and it allowed the Jays to turn Jose Molina into a Type B free agent.
greenfrog - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#246337) #
I wasn't crazy about the Napoli-Francisco trade, but look at it this way: the Jays will likely come out of it with an extra supplemental-round pick in the 2012 draft. The dividends from these extra draft picks could be huge down the road.

As others have noted, AA's managing to unload Wells was by far the most significant aspect of the Angels-Jays-Rangers transaction for the Jays, giving AA much more financial flexibility going forward.

Finally, the Rasmus and Francisco trades demonstrated that AA is willing to give up valuable pieces in trades (his trading partners ended up in the World Series, in no small part thanks to those trades). It probably doesn't make sense for AA to be fleecing other GMs in every last deal he makes.
Mike Green - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#246338) #
Whether Juan Rivera was paid $5.25 million or $5.25 thousand had nothing to do with it.  He had no value to the 2011 Blue Jays, and that much was clear from the moment he was acquired.  His contract was just the very small price that had to be paid for unloading the Wells' contract.  Napoli's was the contract that had value.  Getting rid of Napoli so that one could attempt to get value from Rivera is like...well, the "sunk cost" concept has never been better illustrated. 
rpriske - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#246339) #
Apparently the earlier report was incorrect. Loewen hasn't been outrighted. He has been released. He was told to go and try to get a ML job but if he can't find one the Jays will sign him at AAA.
92-93 - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#246340) #
It's amazing to me that Napoli was traded for Vernon Wells and then Frank Francisco and people are trying to claim he had value - what do you guys know that Tony Reagins and Alex Anthopolous didn't? Getting rid of Napoli got them Type B compensation for Molina and saved them 1.8m, which is the equivalent of 2 or 3 well over slot players in the draft. Also, saying Rivera had no value to the Jays is weird, considering he was every bit the hitter Encarnacion and Lind had been.
TamRa - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#246341) #
"Also, saying Rivera had no value to the Jays is weird, considering he was every bit the hitter Encarnacion and Lind had been."



Huh?

Rivera's last game for the Jays was July 3, and he had a .666 OPS at that point.

On the same day Lind was sitting on a .914 OPS
Paul D - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#246342) #

I hope the Jays do something major soon so we can stop arguing about Napoli.  (That said, it was a bad deal, and it was a bad deal at the time.  You have a hitter like Napoli and weaknesses like the Jays, you make it work).

Shane - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#246343) #

"Finally, the Rasmus and Francisco trades demonstrated that AA is willing to give up valuable pieces in trades (his trading partners ended up in the World Series, in no small part thanks to those trades). It probably doesn't make sense for AA to be fleecing other GMs in every last deal he makes."

Yip. AA has said this a few times in the press. It's good if everyone benefits.

"Trading Napoli for Francisco was a better option than paying Rivera 5.25m to play for someone else, and it allowed the Jays to turn Jose Molina into a Type B free agent."

Well, better option for '11 perhaps and beyond depending on what the comp pick (Francisco) brings down the road. But if a GM (Anthopoulos or Daniels) valued and kept Napoli, considering the season he had, he'd have had great value for AA in '11 & '12, right. If was me - and again I liked Napoli before '11 season - so much money was saved getting rid of Wells contract, I could easily, gleefully punt Riveria's contract, and keep Napoli, and have the four outfielders. AA in a Jays front office has eaten sunk cost before (Ryan) and have even sent cash to acquire good talent before (Halladay deal) so there's precedent there. Anyways, matters not. AA had a obviously well thought out approach and made a calculated trade that had good present + future benifit. Wells & Rios gone has saved a crippling amount of money. Kenny Williams & Reagins should be in the Jays Level of Excellence.

"Except that he had just signed EE as a FA and promised him everyday ABs."

Ya, i'm aware of this, and like you, can tell (and admire AA for this) Anthopoulos values his word and reputation a lot. So ya, jettisoning EE would have not looked good, so that's why then/now he had no such constraints with releasing Rivera. Same thing was/is happening with Teahen.

Jonny German - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#246344) #
There seems to be some widespread over-estimating of EE going on. Are we all clear on the fact that he has never hit more than just adequately for a 1B / DH? And going in to his age-29 season it's not logical to expect him to get substantially better. He's worth the $3.5M he'll make in 2012 and is a handy guy to have around, but he's no key player on a playoff club.
TamRa - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#246345) #
Random thoughts...

Put me down in the "surely we can do better than McCoy" camp. You won't have to spend significant money to hire a better player than him - you might well find one in the Rule 5 and you almost surely can pluck one on minor league free agency.

spending 1 more million is irrelevant anyway.

Heck, if nothing else, assuming you are writing off offense, go with Jon Diaz, at least he brings a glove compared to Johnny Mac's.

-------------

I'm surprised to see Lowen go before Mastro and am forced to conclude this is a curtesy thing.

Carlson was obvious once I realized his surgery was shoulder and not elbow. I'd been confused on that point. I still think Farina will be outrighted for the same reason (albeit his is TJ)

-------------

"Hechavarria does not seem to be anywhere near ready after a rough time in Arizona."

Someone else may have caught this, but He's turned it around nicely actually. His OPS is up to .738 after starting out in a 1/21 slump. over his last 8 games his OPS is well over .900, although that too is skewed by that one monster game.

--------------------------

the comment about Mapoli being a better hitter than Lind/EE begs the question - were we going to get a potentially excellent closer for either of those? whatever we think about the value of a solid closer, AA clearly thinks very highly of the need for one.

-------------------------

"There seems to be some widespread over-estimating of EE going on."

I, for one, and I'm assuming others, are trusting AA's valuation of him. He's made no bones about what HE thinks the guy's upside is, he should know much better than you or I.


Mike Green - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#246346) #
I see that the Dodgers have just signed Rivera to a one-year $4.5 million contract.  I guess that means they expect him to be an everyday outfielder in 2012, or else it means that they've got that kind of money to throw around for the right-handed side of a platoon. 
scottt - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#246347) #
I read somewhere that EE will be playing left field in winter ball and that the Jays will give him some AB there next year.

Do we see Snider back?
92-93 - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#246349) #

TamRa, I was referring to prior to 2011. EE/Rivera/Lind were 3 virtually identical hitters. If I re-arrange the order, try guessing who is who.

.258 .336 .453
.271 .322 .473
.280 .328 .461

"But if a GM (Anthopoulos or Daniels) valued and kept Napoli, considering the season he had, he'd have had great value for AA in '11 & '12, right."

Clearly. But that's using results to justify. The fact that Napoli was traded in a salary dump deal shows what his market value at the time was.

I could easily, gleefully punt Riveria's contract

There's certainly merit to saying this should've been done, and the Jays should have committed to keeping Napoli as a bench bat but only as a 3rd C. However, keeping Napoli while releasing Rivera would have cost the Jays 2m more than the decision they ultimately made, and would've guaranteed the Jays got nothing of value for Rivera. Instead AA chose to turn Napoli into a solid reliever on the cusp of compensation and to take the chance that maybe Rivera would be worth more than 200k in salary relief (which didn't materialize but wasn't an outlandish thought considering the FA deal the Dodgers just gave him).

TamRa - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#246350) #
going by Alex's remarks here:

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111103&content_id=25882772&vkey=news_tor&c_id=tor

the Loewen move was very much a move to be classy with the guy. Which as much as I liked the story of him succeeding in Toronto, I very much approve of.

I have to wonder if the mariners won't be interested given how little offense they got last year the depth chart can't be that deep.
Gerry - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#246351) #
Maybe we should try this.....

When the Jays make a major move we could set up two threads. The first is for general discussion of the trade as we do today. The second thread would just be to record your reaction to the trade in a single word or sentence. Then when people say they hated a trade or loved it we would have a record.

Most people's memories of what they felt a year ago are fuzzy at best. It's like finding out that there were over 200,000 fans at game 6 of the 1993 series.
Shane - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#246352) #

"Clearly. But that's using results to justify. The fact that Napoli was traded in a salary dump deal shows what his market value at the time was."

Some may see if that way, sure. Again, to me, I already liked Napoli's bat prior to '11 season, so... We know that Reagins/Scioscia didn't value him too high. Supposedly Boston had interest in him for a few seasons prior to his trade to TO/TEX.

I would have gotten Napoli AB's anyway I could have. Again, i've never been excited by Lind as a main thumper, i'd shuffle EE if it was possible in season to free up even more AB's. Again, I always valued Napoli a lot, right or wrongly. I see/know what you're saying in regards to Rivera, dollars, etc. But AA is trying to acquire the highest quality of talent he can to rival NY/BOS, so i'd take talent over savings. Again, considering all the money saved from Wells exit for the next 4 years, eating Rivera wouldn't have mattered to me. I'd have rather had the talent of Napoli. Before last friday nights Game 7, Mike Wilner had AA on his radio show, and AA again, retold his thinking at the time of why he made the Napoli flip (link below) to which i'm completly coolio with.

http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2011/10/29/cardinals/  Audio link at bottom of page. Napoli content near end of interview.

Shane - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#246353) #
Haha, interesting Gerry. Sorta a BB 10 character Twitter reaction log for future "I told ya so's" without Justin Bieber hashtags and Keith Law cooking recipes. Hand that assignment out.
BlueJayWay - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#246354) #
When the Jays make a major move we could set up two threads. The first is for general discussion of the trade as we do today. The second thread would just be to record your reaction to the trade in a single word or sentence. Then when people say they hated a trade or loved it we would have a record.

This would be a pretty good idea, if only BB didn't crash whenever a major move happens.
92-93 - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#246355) #
Sometimes I wish search wasn't disabled.
Shane - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#246356) #
  Sometimes I wish search wasn't disabled.

Can Google lend a hand?

Chuck - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#246357) #
Ned Colletti is a bloody embarassment. He should have long ago suffered the same fate as the equally inept Tony Reagins.
rtcaino - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#246358) #
Congratulations, baseball hipster.

I liked Roy Hallday... before he became popular.

I've been following this new prospect... you probably haven't heard of him.
bpoz - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#246359) #
2 threads is a great idea Gerry.

People can pat themselves on the back or say they were mistaken.
TamRa - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#246360) #
TARGET ALERT - ALL HANDS TO STATIONS

http://markbowman.mlblogs.com/2011/11/03/braves-willing-to-trade-jurrjens-and-prado/

Quote:
The Braves gained some financial flexibility by trading Derek Lowe to the Indians earlier this week. They are now exploring the possibility of gaining more flexibility while talking to clubs interested in trading for Jair Jurrjens and/or Martin Prado.

A Major League source said the Braves have informed some teams they might be willing to trade Jurrjens and Prado. Both players could see their respective salaries rise from the $3 million range to the $5 million range through arbitration this offseason.

~unquote

THIS my friends is now the best option for 2B for your 2012 Toronto Blue Jays.



Shane - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#246361) #

Congratulations, baseball hipster.

I liked Roy Hallday... before he became popular.

I've been following this new prospect... you probably haven't heard of him.

Trolling? Didn't think that was your style here.

Mike Green - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#246362) #
One blog suggests that the Dodgers offer up Colletti to the Orioles and demand that they take Rivera as part of the "compensation".

 I wonder if there will be a baseball TARP program in this coming American election year.  I can see the slogan: "if it feels like it is always raining in your ballpark, we have the TARP for you". 
Gerry - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#246363) #

To add to TamRa's link above Shi Davidi has the goods on Loewen:

Reason #1:

Had the Blue Jays waited beyond Wednesday to outright Loewen from the 40-man, they would have been precluded from signing him to a big-league deal until May 15, 2012. Additionally, the longer they waited to make the call on him, the fewer opportunities elsewhere the product of Surrey, B.C., would have had, since other teams would be well on their way toward filling out their off-season shopping lists.

Reason #2:

"Right now we project to have Rajai Davis as the fourth outfielder, and the other component is we had a very deep outfield in New Hampshire last year and we expect a lot of those players to move to Las Vegas, so we could absolutely have a logjam both in Las Vegas and at the major-league level" general manager Alex Anthopoulos said during a conference call.

Full link.

Thomas - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#246365) #
I don't understand Reason #1, from Toronto's point of view, in light of Reason #2. If the Jays have their four outfield spots filled at the major league level (in addition to a possible logjam at Las Vegas) and Loewen doesn't have a path to the major leagues with the club, barring injury or trade, why does it matter if they released him next week and been prevented from signing him to a major league contract until May? Couldn't they have signed him to a minor league deal during that time? While some other club may offer him a major league contract in the meantime, it doesn't sound as if the club would stand in the way of that right now anyway. Am I missing something?

I understand Reason #1 from the point of view of treating Loewen well, but it seems to have been framed also as something that materially benefits the club (aside from gaining goodwill) and I'm not sure I understand why.
Nick Holmes - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#246366) #
92-93
Just type:
"Expos" site:battersbox.ca
into google & Bob's your uncle.
Replace "Expos" with whatever you're looking for...
Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#246367) #

Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow will be in the Rotation next season.   Any acquisition can be: 1 - an Ace, better than Romero; 1A - an Ace, as good as Romero; 2 - almost an Ace as good as Romero, much better than Morrow; 2A - a true # 2, much better than Morrow; or a 3 - maybe a # 2, better than/equal to Morrow; but not a 3A - a true # 3, not being better than in-house; anyone at that caliber is better served by in-house pitchers.   Get the kids the experience.  We will eventually produce 2-4 Pitchers as good as or better than Romero (because we draft better).

Who, of that caliber, will be available?   Do we trade Hech, Gose and Alvarez for one?

The_Game - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#246368) #
HIS my friends is now the best option for 2B for your 2012 Toronto Blue Jays.
Except Kelly Johnson is a better player than Martin Prado and you don't have to trade anything for him.
TamRa - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#246369) #
Except Kelly Johnson is a better player than Martin Prado and you don't have to trade anything for him.

Oh?


Over the last 4 seasons (as long as Prado has been a full time player) he has 10.5 WAR(f) and Johnson has 11.6

I don't think ONE win over four seasons is a significant margin. Of course, you do have to value the player you trade for him less than the draft picks you get for Johnson, admittedly, but that goes without saying.

Prado has been more consistant, Johnson has higher peaks (and lower troughs) - to me they are a wash. Unless there's some deeper divide I've not seen.

Also, I'm not sure enough to say this with confidence, but is it possible his being in left this year depressed his WAR, realtive to the same production at 2B?
92-93 - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#246370) #
Thanks, Nick!
rtcaino - Thursday, November 03 2011 @ 11:57 PM EDT (#246371) #
Trolling? Didn't think that was your style here.


Lol, nope. No troll. Just recycling some hipster jokes with a baseball theme.
Ron - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 12:59 AM EDT (#246375) #
Breaking News: Hazel Mae has returned to Sportsnet. She's going to anchor the weeknight edition of Sportsnet Connected on Sportsnet East, Ontario, and West.
Shane - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 02:01 AM EDT (#246376) #

"Lol, nope. No troll. Just recycling some hipster jokes with a baseball theme".

Hmm, don't know any "hipster jokes" from @BB or @Primer. Must be washed up and passed by at 36 years old. #toughracket #insidejokeslostonme

85bluejay - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 06:45 AM EDT (#246377) #
I suspect that Atlanta, which usually plays it's card close to the vest is trying to follow the Rays playbook from last year, when the Rays "leaked" that they were listening to offers on Matt Garza to start a bidding war & ended up with the Cubs  paying a BIG price - So,while I like both players and prefer Prado's consistency to Kelly Johnson  - I hope the Jays don't get involved in a bidding war 
Richard S.S. - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 08:10 AM EDT (#246378) #

Let's talk about who can we trade.   We should really have a good player at the Show, with good backup, also at the Show and two good pieces at AA or AAA, to be able to trade from that position.

   At 1B: We have Adam Lind, Backups: Encarnacion and Teahen, David Cooper (AAA/MLB), Michael McDade at New Hampshire (AA) and that's it.   Not much trade value here.

   At 2B: We have no one, let alone any one of value to trade.

   At SS: We have Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria at Las Vegas (AAA), and Shane Opitz at Lansing (A) as the closest.   Top trade value here, just no close depth after a trade.

   At 3B: We have Brett Lawrie, Backups: Bautista, Encarnacion and Teahen, and Kellen Sweeney in Bluefield (RK+).   Top trade value, no depth at all here.

   At  C.: We have JP Arencibia, Brian Jeroloman (AAA/MLB), Travis d'Arnaud at New Hampshire (AA) and Yan Gomes (AA/AAA).   Top trade value here, with depth.

   At OF: We have Jose Bautista, Brett Lawrie, Rajai Davis, Eric Thames, Travis Snider, Anthony Gose at New Hampshire (AA) and Moises Sierra at New Hampshire (AA).  Top Trade value here, with depth.

   At SP: We have Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Henderson Alvarez, Brett Cecil and Dustin McGowan at MLB level, Kyle Drabek and Brad Mills at AAA.   At AA we have Drew Hutchison, Nestor Molina, Deck McGuire and Chad Jenkins.   Much top trade value here, with much depth.

We need the best 2B that A.A. can get, as well as a MLB quality backup for the Bench (Mike McCoy is not good enough as primary backup).  

We need a Starter, who can pitch 7-ish (-ish means 6.2-7.1) innings, who can make 30 + starts, who can give us 210 + IP and win 13 + games with, at least, decent stats.  

We need a bona fide Closer and a much upgraded Bullpen.

We can't trade as top value, any 1B (not enough value); any 2B (oops, we have no one), any SS (not enough depth) or any 3B (not enough depth).   We can trade as top value, an Anthony Gose and one of: Travis Snider, Eric Thames, Moises Sierra.   We can trade as top value, 2 AA staters as well as one of Brett Cecil or Henderson Alvarez.   I just don't think we can afford to trade a catcher this year, nor any relievers.

 

 

rtcaino - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#246379) #

Hmm, don't know any "hipster jokes" from @BB or @Primer.

I could have been more clear: They were just generic hipster jokes, which I then applied to baseball.

Here is an example of hipster Ariel, from The Little Mermaid:

http://knowyourmeme.com/photos/98650

The formula can be applied to just about anything.

Beyonder - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#246383) #

Why should we not trade a catcher?  With D'arnaud, Perez, and Gomes, it seems like we would be dealing from an obvious position of strength, so long as AA can find a suitable replacement for Molina.  While you might think that trading D'Arnaud is a bit rich as a price for Prado, his value is unlikley to get much higher than it is currently, and on the current state of the system, catching is as fungible a commodity as we've got.

 

Shane - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#246384) #

"Why should we not trade a catcher?"

Keith Law said during the season Arencibia will be traded once D'Arnaud is ready for MLB promotion - in a round about fashion I assume. (Not that we don't have brains for ourselves) And that to me seems exactly like an AA thing to do considering his skill set/upside and that of JPA's. Some teams will love his homer totals and that should make for good return in tradesies. He's basically always profiled as a John Buck Deux correct?, which is likely gonna suck because he seems to have some nice team & clubhouse intangibles: outspoken, fun, hip, etc ala T-Snide/Lunchbox.

greenfrog - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#246386) #
Let's see what Arencibia can do over the next year or two. I think he might have an extra gear in him (to borrow a phrase from AA, referring to EE).

Speaking of which, here are two ideas for a future Bauxite thread (apologies if this has already been done, which I suspect it might have):

- Who would be on the all-time greatest double-initials roster (Mickey Mantle, Dizzy Dean, Bert Blyleven, Ricky Romero, etc)?

- Which team has had the most double-initials players (and/or staff)? The 2011 Jays have to be up there, with EE, Ricky Romero, Mike McCoy - plus of course Alex Anthopoulos and Brian Butterfield. If nothing else, this makes for convenient shorthand like, "AA wants EE and MM to work with BB on their infield defence to help out RR and other pitchers"
Beyonder - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#246387) #

Ok, but quite apart from disagreeing about JPA's upside and whether he's our catcher of the future, we have an enormous stockpile of talent below at catcher.  If you don't want to trade D'Arnaud fine, but then we've got Perez, Jimenez, and Gomes.  It strikes me that if there is any position that we can afford to trade away a couple of prospects, it's at catcher. 

Maybe I'm fooling myself but I'd like to think JPA's ceiling is higher than John Buck Deux.  I understand that counting stats are sometimes overemphasized, but 23 homers is a pretty impressive tally for a rookie catcher (and one that John Buck has never reached).  Add to that the fact that he's clearly already one of the leaders on the team, and that his pitch calling apparently got much stronger as the season went on, and I think we have good reason to be pretty pleased with JPA's rookie season. 

Mike Green - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#246388) #
Some GMs might think that JPA is a young catcher who might very well hit .280 with 40 homers and is a very valuable property.  Other GMs might think that his on-base percentage is unlikely to exceed .275 and that his defence is poor and is unlikely to improve, and so that he isn't worth much.  If you get a reasonable offer from a GM in the first group, you'd have to consider it carefully, because the organization is deep in talent at catcher and d'Arnaud is arguably ready. 
bpoz - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#246390) #
That is Good TJC. Thanks.

There is a lot for everyone on the net. My old age can can be a blast rather than boring.


Shane - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#246391) #
@ Beyonder. For sure dude. JPA is an talent for sure and his personality counts for a lot. Funny that Phelps & Quiroz didn't pan out, JPA does (Yay!) but there's at least one more talented offensive catcher coming right up the rear. Seemingly D'Arnaud is going to be bring a lot more offensive tools than JPA, so I imagine he wins out in time. Even with improvement, JPA is not projected to gain all that much AVG and he's wayyy low there already, and his walking ability is pretty pretty not good. You're right though, Jays org has a lot of catcher trade chips if they were so inclined.
Beyonder - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#246392) #

Some GMs might think that JPA is a young catcher who might very well hit .280 with 40 homers and is a very valuable property.

If we think there is even a 20%- 25% chance that JPA turns into this type of player, he should be given every opportunity to realise that potential.  That's certainly more than John Buck Deux.  I would trade D'Arnaud long before I gave up on a catcher with that type of promise.  While D'Arnaud looks great, for a variety of reasons he's only put it all together offensively for one season.  Next season he'll be in Vegas where the median batting average is close to .290., so i don't think we'll learn very much more than we already know  about D'Arnaud by this time next year.

If you get a reasonable offer from a GM in the first group, you'd have to consider it carefully, because the organization is deep in talent at catcher and d'Arnaud is arguably ready. 

I agree.  By extension we should also be willing to trade away any of our catching prospects.

 

Mick Doherty - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#246393) #

Did someone wonder about double initials?

  • "AA" Through "CC"
  • "DD" Through "FF"
  • "GG" Through "JJ"
  • "KK" Through "MM"
  • The "SS" All-Stars
  • "PP"-"RR"-"TT"-"WW"
  • "NN"-"OO"-"UU"-"VV"-"YY"-"ZZ"

    These date back to mid-2006 so may be a bit outdated ,...

  • Mick Doherty - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#246394) #
    Romero, incidentally -- he probably makes the RR team, but is no better than the fifth starter in place of Ruthven. He may pass Rhoden soon enough, but he ain't there yet, from a career perspective.
    Mike Green - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#246398) #
    I agree.  By extension we should also be willing to trade away any of our catching prospects.

    d'Arnaud was at one time part of a trade for Roy Halladay, and he has taken a big step forward since then, but if any team has a lot of interest in him and recognizes his value, you would be wise to consider that too.  No one would likely give you anything of significant value for Jimenez or Perez because they are both so far from the majors.
    bpoz - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#246399) #
    Richard SS, I like your categories, they are well defined.

    I am trying to see how the Jays can build a 2010/11 Phillies team and how would the Phillies do in the AL East.

    For SP only: I like your category 1,1A & 2.
    IMO King Felix is a 1. His history shows it.
    1A RR has history too.
    2: Marcum & Garza have history, so would they qualify. If not who would and where would Marcum & Garza slot in?

    I would trade for King Felix if available and if ALL 3/4 players given up, every one of them turns out better than King Felix, I am OK with that, but only if Felix performs like his history suggests. I got what I wanted in Felix.

    So far nobody else on the Jays qualifies for the 1,1A &2 category as far as history shows. But if J Lester & C Lee can both develop and did into that category then so could a few of our candidates ie Lester & Lee started a bit slow in their careers as has Morrow so far.

    I need 4 more SPs to become similar to the Phillies.

    For 2012 I will take my chances with Morrow, Cecil, McGowan, Alvarez and the NH SP staff if ready. I feel that I have no real choice but to be patient.
    But how do I choose long term. How much time do I give Morrow, Cecil & McGowan, because by mid 2012 someone could be knocking hard on the door out of the farm.
    Sure some injuries will provide an opportunity and Jenkins,McGuire & Molina but not Hutchison could start off in the pen.

    About 5 years ago I thought Felix & E Jackson were about equal as minor league players. But Felix became a 1 & Jackson 2/3?

    John Northey - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#246400) #
    There is lots of depth at catcher but I don't think the Jays will trade any yet due to there being just the right number with no overcrowding at this point in time. Next winter will be a different story though and by waiting a year all of them should be more valuable should they stay healthy (always a big if with catchers).

    IMO pitching is what will be sent away in any trade. If Darvish is won then things get very, very interesting because then the Jays would have a massive backlog at starting pitcher but with just 1 proven ace (Romero) and 1 likely ace (Darvish) with 2 potential aces (Morrow, Alvarez) and a ton of guys likely to be #3/4's (Cecil - who was once viewed as a potential ace, Litsch, McGowan - who also was once viewed as a potential ace) and a few more with experience who are unlikely to be much more than trade filler (Mills, Villanueva, Perez, Carreno). Mix in kids who should be up at some point in 2012 (Drabek, Molina, McGuire, Hutchison, Jenkins) and you have a ton of depth at a spot teams are always desperate for.

    I'm sure the Jays are chasing the best young middle infielder they can find as well as hunting for a power bat to play at one of 1B/DH/LF, where they'd trade away whoever is excess to make it happen (IE: if 1B/DH then Lind or EE, if LF then Thames or Snider would be part of the deal). If nothing is done to upgrade LF/1B/DH I wonder if there is anyway to get a kid platoon in place with Snider/Moises Sierra in LF and EE/Thames at DH - should anyone do really well then the RH part could platoon with Lind at 1B if needed. Sadly, in these days of 12/13 man pitching staffs I can't see more than one platoon occurring, probably DH with EE mixed Snider/Thames/Lind depending on who is hitting well and who is not. Sierra should be ready though as any injury/ineffectiveness could vault him to the majors if he hits well. I suspect Gose will be left in AAA (or AA) all season due to his age, but Sierra is at the end of his minor league time with this being his 6th year in the North American minors plus 1 year in the Dominican one.
    92-93 - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#246401) #
    Last year people scoffed at things like Drabek/Snider for JUpton or Greinke.

    If the right player is available in trade, you shouldn't hesitate to move a Travis D'Arnaud or Anthony Gose to get him.
    Gerry - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#246402) #

    OK traders, here is your chance to get a starting pitcher with upside.....

    From MLB Trade Rumors...

    Though Oakland GM Billy Beane isnt shopping his players, hell listen to proposals for Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, Kurt Suzuki and others. The As have more starting pitching than most teams and they may leverage their depth in trade talks.

    Gerry - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#246403) #

    And welcome back Trystan Magnuson.  The Jays picked him up for cash today.   Last season the Jays traded Magnuson and Danny Farquhar for Rajai Davis.  Now all three are Jays.

    China fan - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#246404) #

    The Jays have hired ex-Rays GM Chuck LaMar as a special assistant on amateur scouting.  That sounds like a smart move.  They've also reacquired Trystan Magnuson for cash.  That one is a neutral move -- can't hurt, even if unlikely to produce much.

    China fan - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#246405) #
    And from Baseball America:  "The Blue Jays have signed Jesus Tinoco, a 16-year-old righthander from Venezuela.  Tinoco, who is from Maturin, is 6-foot-3, 198 pounds with a loose arm, good delivery and a heavy fastball that touches 91 mph. Some scouts project him as a potential power pitcher and he already has advanced feel for his mid-to-high 70s curveball."
    Ron - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#246406) #
    According to Rosenthal, the A's are open to trade offers for anybody on their roster not named Weeks. Gonzalez, Cahill, and Anderson (recovering from surgery) would all be upgrades to the Jays rotation.

    I would like to see the Jays sell high on Gose this off-season. With Bautista, Rasmus, Thames, and Snider all under long term deals/under club control, the Jays don't have room for him unless there's going to be a trade. A top of the rotation with Romero/Darvishsefad/Cahill looks pretty good on paper.

    I've noticed all Jays fans have pencilled in Morrow in the rotation while Litsch has been the forgotten man. I know baseball fans are seduced by K's but I'm not even sure if Morrow is a better starting pitcher than Litsch. Morrow is a below average starter and shouldn't just be given a spot in the rotation. AA said there's no chance of him returing to the bullpen.

    Mike Green - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#246407) #
    I wouldn't say anything positive or negative about Chuck LaMar.  His tenure as GM in Tampa was not a success, but apparently he played some role in the success of the team afterwards. 
    Mike Green - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#246408) #
    Admins, the hot stove might be a little too full.  You wouldn't want a messy cuttlefish pie explosion, so perhaps a new thread is in order.
    China fan - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#246410) #

    .....I wouldn't say anything positive or negative about Chuck LaMar.....

    Wow, we have a tough crowd on this site!  You don't trust AA to hire a good scout if he sees one?  LaMar doesn't seem to be replacing anyone else, so he's a net addition to the staff, an additional voice who might be able to contribute something.  Gregor Chisholm points out that LaMar has drafted the likes of Josh Hamilton, B. J. Upton, Carl Crawford, James Shields, Jeff Niemann and Andy Sonnanstine. Nothing positive, really?

    John Northey - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#246411) #
    LaMar was a 'Peter Principle' example. Someone who was very good at one thing (scouting) who got promoted too high (GM).

    Checking his Wikipedia page - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck_LaMar - you can see he was in Pittsburgh for 89/90 when they put the finishing touches on their last good team (playoffs in 90-92). In 91 he moved to Atlanta and we all know how well they did. He then took over the D-Rays and, well, it didn't work too well at the ML level but they did build up a lot of minor league talent by the time he left in late 2005. He spent a bit of time in Washington before going to the Phillies in 2007 who have done very well. He resigned from Philly in September of this year.

    From what I can see teams he has been at have done well either while he was there (Atlanta/Philly) or right after he left (Pittsburgh/Tampa) which suggests strength in seeing talent but not always able to put it together in the right order. Ideal as another piece of the puzzle here for AA.
    Gerry - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#246412) #

    LaMar may not have been a great GM but his scouting and player evaluation abilities are reportedly top notch.

    Most recently LaMar was assistant GM for the Phillies until he resigned in late summer.  As the time the reports were that he told the Phillies that their system was weak and that evaluation led to his firing.

    John Manuel from BA wonders if LaMar was hired to replace Tony LaCava and that his job had to be reworked when LaCava came back.

    TamRa - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#246414) #
    "I've noticed all Jays fans have pencilled in Morrow in the rotation while Litsch has been the forgotten man. I know baseball fans are seduced by K's but I'm not even sure if Morrow is a better starting pitcher than Litsch."



    Alex is, adamantly so. He has basically said baring an urgent need that they like Litsch better in the pen given the competition, and it's well known what he thinks of Morrow.

    I think he's right.



    (OT: I'm frustrated that the tool-bar at the top of the text window doesn't appear in chrome, I can't highlight quoted text or anything - is there a fix for this? without typing in the HTML code manually?)
    Mike Green - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#246415) #
    The best thing you can say is that he has been hired numerous times by highly respected GMs (the drafting record of the Rays pre-Friedman was OK but nothing special in light of their consistently high draft position).  I am not sure how it will work out with both he and LaCava here.  You may very well end up with a "too many cooks" problem. 
    Original Ryan - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#246417) #
    The Blue Jays now have at least three former GMs in the organisation. Ed Lynch and Jim Beattie are both major league scouts.
    92-93 - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#246418) #
    "Assistant GM for player development Chuck LaMar, who had served in that post since 2008, resigned in early September. He left amid rumors of personality conflicts, despite the admirable job he performed at developing blue-chip prospects." - BA
    John Northey - Friday, November 04 2011 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#246420) #
    IMO the more I hear of LaMar having issues due to being too honest the happier I am that he is here. AA might need a guy who will poke needles into his balloon every so often to keep him sharp.
    Richard S.S. - Saturday, November 05 2011 @ 06:12 AM EDT (#246427) #

    Beyonder, I'm bolding best trade value.

    JP Arencibia at MLB; Brian Jeroloman at AAA/MLB (Is he/can he be ready for MLB in 2012?); Yan Gomes at AA/AAA (Is he/can he be ready for MLB in 2012?); Travis d'Arnaud at AA (not ready for MLB in 2012.); AJ Jimenez at A+; Carlos Perez at A, to name a few.

    You must assume A.A. will get a quality backup Catcher this offseason.   Why I'm leery of trading a Catcher this offseason is this: trade d'Arnaud and have Arencibia go down with a season/career ending injury.

    rtcaino - Saturday, November 05 2011 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#246429) #
    I think that trading a catcher is much more likely during the upcoming season than during the present off-season.

    It would give JPA more time at the majors to solidify value. And if AJJ can maintain his performance at AA, he becomes more attractive to other teams. (Of course, neither item is guaranteed.)

    Most likely scenario for me is JPA being traded at the deadline in a package deal. (Something like: JPA, bullpen arm, pitching prospect > for a potential core piece).
    TamRa - Saturday, November 05 2011 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#246433) #
    I take an even more long term view. I can in fact see JP being dealt at mid-season - in 2013.

    I DON'T think the Jays will deal him off with d'Arnaud untested in the majors unless they get blown away with an offer. I think they will spend at least half a season on the roster together, if not more.

    greenfrog - Saturday, November 05 2011 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#246434) #
    Agreed - AA (sensibly) seems to like having multiple layers of talent at as many positions as possible from the majors on down. No sense in trading Arencibia prematurely. He will likely have more value in a year or two; this will also give the Jays a better sense of what their catching prospects are made of.
    92-93 - Saturday, November 05 2011 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#246436) #
    Even if D'Arnaud is eventually good enough to unseat Arencibia I'm not sure a trade is in order. There's big time thump in that bat and if y'all wanted the Jays to keep Napoli this year one can see JPA having a similar role in the future : 40-50 games behind the plate and lots of 1B/DH ABs vs. LHP. Not having the responsibilities that an everyday catcher has could potentially make Arencibia a much more lethal hitter.
    TamRa - Saturday, November 05 2011 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#246441) #
    I'm not sure that applies unless he garners an unshakable reputation as an unacceptable defender.

    The moment you move a catcher (or SS or CF) off their position, you automatically surrender value. He'd give the team more via trade than in the role you describe most likely

    (although speaking from the heart only, I always - with rare exceptions - want to see the homegrown guy produce at home when possible)

    Mike Green - Sunday, November 06 2011 @ 10:06 AM EST (#246449) #
    I am a big fan of the play The Importance of Reaching Base by Lettumbe Wilde.  This has nothing to do with Anthopoulos' catching dilemma. 
    Shane - Sunday, November 06 2011 @ 03:09 PM EST (#246453) #

    "No sense in trading Arencibia prematurely. He will likely have more value in a year or two; this will also give the Jays a better sense of what their catching prospects are made of. "

    Agree for certain.

    "I DON'T think the Jays will deal him off with d'Arnaud untested in the majors unless they get blown away with an offer."

    Agree completely.

    "Not having the responsibilities that an everyday catcher has could potentially make Arencibia a much more lethal hitter."

    Who knows? healthier fingers/hands during the 162 might lead to better consistent bat. And if his bat never gets to be DH calibre worthy, he should still be a great tradable commodity as a full-time catcher for someone(s), and a strong card for AA to hold. This of course, if D'Arnaud proves to be the better bat/option.

    Gerry - Sunday, November 06 2011 @ 04:49 PM EST (#246454) #

    If anyone wants to know what the mood was in the Rangers clubhouse before game 7 you can listen to the link below. Warning, there is repeated use of swear words, this is definitely not safe for work or for rooms where kids are present.

    Link.

    They did appear to be loose before the game.

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