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FLASH! BULLETIN! URGENT NEWS!

The Blue Jays have optioned RHP Sam Dyson to New Hampshire and will recall C-INF Yan Gomes from Las Vegas (as reported by Barry Davis and others on The Twitter.)

That was yesterday. Today they sent seven bodies to Houston (including the much beloved Francisco Cordero and Ben Francisco) in exchange for pitchers J.A. Happ, David Carpenter, and (the Prodigal Returns) Brandon Lyon.



Also going to Houston (evidently) will be four prospects currently in A ball - pitchers Asher Wojciechowski, Joe Musgrove, and David Rollins and catcher Carlos Perez.

J.A. Happ is a 29 year-old LH starter - this year, he's gone 7-9, 4.83 in 18 starts - his best season was as a rookie in 2009 when he went 12-4, 2.93 for the Phillies, who traded him to Houston (along with Anthony Gose) a year later in the Roy Oswalt trade.

David Carpenter is a RH reliever who turned 27 this week. He pitched quite well last season (1-3, 2.93) after being called up in June to make his ML debut. He's struggled this season (0-2, 6.07). His K/BB figures haven't changed, it's entirely a matter of the balls in play going for hits.

Brandon Lyon is 32 years old now - he made his debut with the Jays back in August 2001. I was in the house, and he looked like a young Greg Maddux that day.  He went 5-4, 4.21 over the last six weeks of 2001 and opened the next year in the rotation. He got off to a poor start, was farmed out, lost to Boston on waivers - and hasn't started a major league game since. He's had an extremely erratic career coming out of various bullpens since then: Boston, Arizona, Detroit, Houston) and his career arc has generally resembled the Flight of the Yo-Yo.

And in other news, two struggling pitchers that had been mentioned as people the Jays might, in their Hour of Desperation, take a flyer on - have been traded for each other. Coloroado sends Jeremy Guthrie to Kansas City for Jonathan Sanchez, which I think could be a Big Win for the Royals. Or not.


Roster Moves! (Updated) | 145 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
James W - Thursday, July 19 2012 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#260685) #
I had this big urge to sarcastically ask how the team will survive with ONLY seven pitchers in the bullpen. So I'll just note it, without actually asking. Thanks!
Mike Green - Thursday, July 19 2012 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#260687) #
What is the over/under in days on Gomes' length of stay in TO? 

One of the disadvantages with having the triple A club in Las Vegas is that if you have a player who goes up and down several times, it can be expected to adversely affect performance somewhat.  With a player like McCoy, it is one thing.  Gomes is another story, as it is certainly possible that he emerges as a valuable player.

John Northey - Thursday, July 19 2012 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#260688) #
Thank goodness - the less often we see Ozzie at third (or any position other than 'bench') the better.

In the last 9 days (B-R lists last 8, add in yesterdays game) although really it is since the break thus 6 games...
Frasor: 3 games, 62 pitches
Loup: 3 games, 40 pitches (all 3 over 4 days)
Oliver: 2 games, 37 pitches
Janssen: 2 games, 31 pitches
Cordero: 2 games, 14 pitches thrown
Beck: 2 games, 9 pitches (was to come in after Romero but never threw a pitch still credited though, other was July 16th)
Carpenter: 1 game, 25 pitches (July 14th)
Dyson: 1 game, 15 pitches (July 17th)

So, a total of 16 appearances over the post-all star break period or an average of 2 1/2 relievers per game.  Carpenter & Dyson were fighting for the 7th/8th slots it seems with Beck right there too.  Loup seems popular with the management.

Between Beck/Carpenter/Dyson there was a marginal use for 2, but clearly all 3 were not needed.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, July 19 2012 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#260691) #
Anyone asks for Gomes in trade had better give up their Ace and their firstborn to acquire him.   He's just too .... useful.
uglyone - Thursday, July 19 2012 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#260692) #
we could probably make an easy argument that Gomes is at least as deserving of the starting C job as arencibia, to be honest.
Super Bluto - Thursday, July 19 2012 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#260709) #
just tuned into the 51s game. After hitting a homer, Snider lifted for a pinch hitter (in the same, six run inning).
Super Bluto - Thursday, July 19 2012 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#260711) #
51s broadcast is reporting that because of Snider's home run (and another by Perales), fans holding a ticket stub get a free breakfast at the golden gate casino. Not sure how to interpret this.


JB21 - Thursday, July 19 2012 @ 11:44 PM EDT (#260712) #
Twitter isn't telling me much, except what was just said. Somebody tweeted that they saw the training staff looking at him, did anybody see that?

I certainly hope not, but it seems strange that he would be called up after 1 AB tonight. WIth an off day it would've been nice to have Travis in Boston today and ready for tomorrow nights game.
smcs - Thursday, July 19 2012 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#260713) #
just tuned into the 51s game. After hitting a homer, Snider lifted for a pinch hitter (in the same, six run inning).

51s broadcast is reporting that because of Snider's home run (and another by Perales), fans holding a ticket stub get a free breakfast at the golden gate casino. Not sure how to interpret this.


Snider heard about free food and wanted to be first in line.
Super Bluto - Thursday, July 19 2012 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#260714) #
okay, okay, but in the two innings I've been listening, there's been nothing about Snider. What does that tell you?
JB21 - Thursday, July 19 2012 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#260715) #
He has tickets to the Dark Knight midnight show? I guess the time zone thing would get rid of that theory.
Super Bluto - Thursday, July 19 2012 @ 11:55 PM EDT (#260716) #
Snider "for reasons unexplained was pulled from the game". This from Russ Langer. Tough to tell if he's hiding anything, but I wouldn't bet against it.


hypobole - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 12:03 AM EDT (#260718) #
Could someone check if Anthopoulos voted "Yes" or "No" in the poll?
Super Bluto - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 12:26 AM EDT (#260720) #
okay, in all seriousness... Langer hasn't said anything in 3 innings. I'm sure its possible he doesn't actually know anything but why not speculate for a few innings rather than give me a list of  MLB birthdays? Would he be muzzled?


Oceanbound - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 01:02 AM EDT (#260722) #
Davidi says Snider is heading to Boston to join the team, but unclear whether he will actually be called up.
hypobole - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 01:02 AM EDT (#260723) #
Snider on his way to Boston

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/2012/07/20/snider_vegas_/
Super Bluto - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 01:31 AM EDT (#260724) #
Russ Langer is reporting in his post game summary that Snider's locker is empty. Now, why wouldn't the Jays tell him what was happening?
Richard S.S. - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 04:41 AM EDT (#260727) #
The Ninja has struck again with a Trade.   This is the only reason for so much secrecy.
Richard S.S. - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 05:05 AM EDT (#260730) #

1) Brett Lawrie goes on the DL.   Gomes plays third and Snider joins Gose, Rasmus, Davis and Francisco as the 5th outfielder?

2) Anthony Gose or Colby Rasmus are Traded.   Snider, the untraded one, Davis and Francisco are our outfield?

3) What else?   Snider is being Traded?

Sano - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 08:26 AM EDT (#260732) #
I'm equally puzzled. Gomes is up as the replacement for Lawrie (if he goes down). Why call Snider up as well?
greenfrog - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 08:33 AM EDT (#260733) #
Some L-R balance, maybe? Francisco and Davis are decent against LHP, but quite bad against RHP. Snider is more or less the reverse.
Dave Till - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#260735) #
Here's what I think is happening:

- Gose is up to platoon with Francisco to cover RF while Bautista is out. This also might serve to show Gose what work he still needs to do to become a major league regular.

- Snider is coming up to replace Davis, who is batting .152 in July. (I suppose that they could platoon there as well.)

I'd be surprised if there has been a trade, but with AA you never know.

John Northey - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#260736) #
Odd that they haven't said who is going down if Snider is up.  Lawrie to the DL is possible, but his tweets suggest otherwise.  Vizquel could be released but I doubt it.  The pen is already down to 7 so I doubt they'll go down to 6.  Francisco or Davis could be released.

Francisco: 54 PA this year, 240/296/380 for an 80 OPS+, just 9 PA in July so far.
Davis: 219 PA this year, 245/298/380 for an 80 OPS+, 51 PA in July (152/216/239)

Davis is seriously slumping, but overall has hit as 'well' as Francisco (80 OPS is not what I'd call 'well' for an outfielder).  Davis you can put in CF and run with so he has some value even when not hitting but Francisco?  Still not sure why AA traded for him - Yan Gomes is just 10 PA short of Francisco and give it a few weeks and Gose could be ahead of him too.  On a short bench situation having someone the manager clearly does not want to use is a mistake.  I'd let Francisco go, put Snider in LF or RF with Gose on the other corner and have Davis spot one or the other against lefties.
hypobole - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#260737) #
"Francisco or Davis could be released."

Zero chance. They have value.
JB21 - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#260739) #
I believe they both have options remaining.
Ryan Day - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#260741) #
Now that's a roster move:
To Houston, Ben Francisco, Francisco Cordero, and prospects Asher Wojciechowski, Joe Musgrove, David Rollins and Carlos Perez.
Jays get JA Happ, Brandon Lyon and David Carpenter.
PeteMoss - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#260742) #
Don't really get what the Jays are getting out of the deal besides bodies (which I suppose they need) but at the cost of some reasonable prospects.

Snider also called up.
smcs - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#260744) #
The Jays didn't just shuffle the deck chairs with this move, they ordered whole new ones. Happ is 29 and under team control thru 2015. Lyon is in the last year of a stupidly large contract. Carpenter could be the 2nd best Carpenter on the Jays roster.

But, no more Francisco Cordero, so that's good. And Travis Snider is back. Sad to see Wojciechowski go, but TINSTAAPP.

Thomas - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#260745) #
I've had about two minutes to think about it, but I don't get it at all.
Thomas - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#260746) #
Well, I mean, I guess I do in that the Jays are going for it this year, albeit going for it in a way that isn't going to cost them any of the team's top prospects. They upgraded the bullpen swapping Lyon for Cordero and Happ will slot himself into the rotation in place of Cecil or Laffey. The team doesn't lose anything of importance from the major league roster, but I don't think I'd have traded Asher, Musgrove and Perez to make that upgrade.
JB21 - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#260747) #

I don't think there's much to get (right or wrong). Francisco and Cordero are gone. Snider's up. We have another Major League Starter, and a little more bullpen help, which cost us a couple of prospects that AA must've thought were expendable. With our Minor League depth (Lansing kids, D'Arnaud, etc.), I can't necessarily argue with AA there.

Excited to see Travis back on the big league club.

PeteMoss - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#260748) #
I suspect a lot of it is being more excited than needed about Jays prospects. But I'd rather have a few lottery tickets and a bunch of blah. JA Happ is basically a 5th starter... Lyon might help the pen this year but whatever, Carpenter is an arm who might become a decent reliever.

Cordero and Francisco have no value at all, but I don't know why you have to give up four prospects to complete that deal... even if they aren't top guys.
TamRa - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#260749) #
"The Ninja has struck again with a Trade. This is the only reason for so much secrecy."

That was my thought as i was going to sleep last night as well. I had a very strong feeling I'd wake up to hear about a trade and figured it would be one of Davis or Francisco for a reliever...I didn't see anything this big coming.

Lyon is a guy I was coveting for a month or so now, Happ...is quite inconsistent. I'm not sure we can count on him for more than what Laffey, Cecil and/or Vllianueva have done so far.
Carpenter was pretty good last year but has been a lot more hittable in a similar amount of innings so far this year.

Going the other way - It's good to get Coco and Francisco out of the way, that's a notable upgrade. Rollins is just a guy, Musgrove was a good prospect but deep in the depth chart. Perez was always a guy that was probably traceable given the relative value of catchers and the depth in the org.
Wojo was also a guy that I saw as potentially a chip. It's just too bad Jenkins hadn't done better or that one might have been him instead.

It seems like a lot in number of bodies, but I don't think it's a price that hurts us.

Parker - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#260750) #
Terrible, terrible trade. There's no upside here for the Jays. Just awful. I don't understand it at all.
Paul D - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#260751) #
I don't think it's fair to say that Happ has no upside.
Thomas - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#260753) #
I must say, I think the last trade AA pulled that I didn't get to this degree was the Napoli-Francisco swap.

At the end of this year, the Jays will have Happ and maybe Carpenter and the Astros will have Wojciechowski, Perez, Musgrove and Rollins. I don't think the Jays increase their odds of making the playoffs enough at all (especially as Happ isn't anything of note, as has been pointed out) to justify that group of prospects, even if the odds are not good that any of them become significant contributors. It's a strange move.
Maldoff - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#260754) #
To me, this seems like acquiring a fourth starter and an upgrade in relief (Lyon over Cordero) for a spare outfielder, a possible reliever down the road (Asher Woj), a catcher prospect and a decent, if not far off, prospect (Musgrove). Not a terrible trade, but not one to move the needle.
SJE - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#260755) #
Seems like the Jays traded some interesting prospect for 3 yawners. The rest of the day will be spent convincing ourselves that these are actually more than fillers. Maybe addition by subtraction. Marc Hullet Is astounded.
Wildrose - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#260756) #
Funny deal, one that you usually don't see from AA.

Basically he's trying to keep the meager wild card chances afloat this year without blowing up the farm system. Their not really going for it, nor are they really throwing in the towel. A real status quo type move.

The reliever Carpenter does have a live arm.

Happ 2 more years  of arbitration.

Lyon a free agent after the season.

Carpenter essentially a rookie.

Nigel - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#260758) #

The trade is completely understandable if you forget about the Jays making a good baseball trade and think about a trade that might keep ratings up.  There was a serious chance of this team (with all of the current injuries) going on a 10 or 12 game losing streak - this trade lessened that risk somewhat and gives the appearance to the casual fan of doing something.

As others have said, as a baseball trade, this makes zero sense.  I think people need to understand that the main driver of the owners is ratings generation and that does not always align with what makes good baseball sense.

Gwyn - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#260759) #
Terrible, terrible trade

Why? The Jays gave up a couple of pretty fungible prospects to improve the bullpen, something which has been needed for some time, and ,arguably, the rotation.

Noah - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#260760) #
FWIW Ken Rosenthal tweeted that he thinks that David Carpenter may be the key to the deal:

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal
Carpenter may be key to 10-player deal for #BlueJays. Late-inning potential, 5 more yrs. of control. Lyon potential FA. Happ 2 more yrs arb.
Magpie - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#260761) #
I don't understand it at all.

You haven't seen Coco pitch this season?

Seriously, they didn't give up anything I care about, even a little, and they got a couple of warm bodies. Not sure what Snider's doing in Boston yet - Happ and Lyon replace Cordero and Francisco on the active roster. Unless lawrie's going to the DL.
Anders - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#260762) #
Yeah I don't get this much, Happ is basically just a guy, although I guess they get to keep him beyond this year. For this the Jays basically traded three prospects, maybe .5 of one will be a decent major leaguer. But the Jays aren't going to make the playoffs this year, and this maybe increases their odds from 4% to 5%, or 10% to 12%, or whatever, and if the team is good enough in the future then Happ isn't on it, so I don't see how this trade "moves the needle" at all so to speak.
Thomas - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#260763) #
The Jays are the team including the PTBNL apparently, if you were wondering who the 10th player was. Hopefully no one of note.

I'd have understood trading, say, Asher and Rollins for Lyon (if Houston would have accepted that) and cutting Cordero. But the inclusion of three prospects of some note in order to get JA Happ, as well, so you can run him out there a bunch of times against the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays does not fill me with any more confidence than having Cecil face those teams would. I'd have figured Bautista's injury would have ended any pretence the Jays had of making moves to "go for it" this year. And while they're hedging their bets in doing so, this is a move that benefits the present at the expense of the future.

I'm still puzzled.
hypobole - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#260764) #
Doubt Lyon will be a Jay beyond July 31 if he has any success.
TamRa - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#260765) #
now that I look, Happ is basically Cecil's projection. Slightly better hit rate, somewhat better K rate.

I wonder who gets bumped out of the rotation?

Another thought - it's not impossible that Happ will be flipped (or Cecil?) as part of another deal.

Thomas - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#260766) #
You haven't seen Coco pitch this season?

I advocated releasing Cordero several weeks ago. I'm sure that's not what you're actually implying, but there's no need to pay another team a prospect to take him on (unless there are serious budgetary constraints).

The trade is completely understandable if you forget about the Jays making a good baseball trade and think about a trade that might keep ratings up. There was a serious chance of this team (with all of the current injuries) going on a 10 or 12 game losing streak - this trade lessened that risk somewhat and gives the appearance to the casual fan of doing something

I don't agree that this trade keeps ratings up in any meaningful way. I don't think any casual fan is more likely to sit down to watch a game because JA Happ is starting instead of Cecil or Laffey or because there's a chance Brandon Lyon may pitch the 8th instead of Frasor. It may keep fans watching because Cordero will no longer blow games in the 7th and 8th innings, but I don't think there's any real ratings/interest benefit to acquiring no-names like Happ and Lyon, that casual fans would perhaps at best remember from the original Halladay talks and his career as a Blue Jay, respectively.

It should be noted that a side benefit of acquiring Happ may be to push one of those two into the bullpen.

I will grant that there may be a benefit to the clubhouse morale and/or the attitudes and expectations of the players on the team to making even a small "go for it" trade that we can't account for. Maybe AA felt that such a lift would be an additional benefit of the deal. The players may feel satisfied that the front office is trying to do something, even if it's not a huge splash, rather than simply fading out of contention in August.

smcs - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#260767) #
I'm still puzzled.

I get it. To some degree, we've killed AA for going into spring training with his head buried in the sand with respect to the starting rotation. It was based on everyone being healthy (McGowan, Litsch and Morrow), and no one taking a step back (Romero, Alvarez and Drabek). Beyond that, there was just no depth -- Hutchison, Cecil, Carreno, Laffey, Chavez. Happ, at the very least, is under team control for a while, and is probably a respectable 4th starter. He's got a 2.5 month audition to be penciled into a starting role in March.
Magpie - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#260768) #
I would point out that there was a pressing need for warm, breathing bodies. The series of calamities that have decimated the MLB staff have a ripple effect through the entire organization. There are moments when fringe major leaguers (and I think Carpenter has a chance to become - oh, maybe another Jason Frasor) are useful.
Wildrose - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#260769) #
Carpenter has has a strange career path.

He was both a catcher/ pitcher in the minor leagues.

He did not take up pitching full time until 2009.

Fangraphs has him throwing 94.5 MPH ( he does not appear to have much of an off-speed pitch throwing a change-up only 1.6% of the time).

TamRa - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#260770) #
Okay, taking Rosenthal's remark into consideration, let's break it down into segments:

Wojo and Perez for Lyon - fine with.
Musgrove and PTBNL for Happ - no problem
Rollins for Carpenter - why not?

Cordero and Francisco had no practical value to anyone, IMO, and it clears the way for Snider which has value on it's own.

So, looked at like that, it's fine with me - just not shiny.

Gwyn - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#260771) #
AA will be on the fan with the Garfoose and co between midday and one.
Nigel - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#260772) #
I agree that no casual fan will sit and watch a game because Happ is pitching versus Cecil but (to Magpie's point) I think this team was/is on the tipping point of falling into an abyss this season with the injuries etc.  A fan is not likely to tune in to watch game 10 of a 10 game losing streak.  Home attendance and ratings are up this season, there is a lot to lose from ownership's perspective if this season ends on a disasterous note.  I'm not even blaming them for this, I think it makes perfect sense on a number of levels, but I don't think you can analyze this as a trade to see who ended up with the best collection of assets at the end of the day.
Ryan Day - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#260773) #
I'm... mostly indifferent to this. Happ isn't great, but still an improvement on the likes of Laffey; Lyon is a big improvement on Cordero, and most of the rest of the pen. Carpenter appears to have good stuff, even if he doesn't know what to do with it.

And the Jays didn't give up that much - I still like Perez quite a bit, but Woj is looking like an eventual reliever (if that), and Musgrove is 19 an in short season ball, so who the heck knows if he'll ever amount to anything.

I wouldn't call this much of a move toward contention, but it could cut down on some of the ugly stuff dragging the team away from contending.
Parker - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#260774) #
They could've just released Cordero if they wanted rid of him that badly.

I'll give you Happ; he's only one year removed from a pretty good two-year run and he's still young enough to bounce back. Carpenter, sure. He could be decent. I just don't see how Lyon, Happ, and Carpenter are going to get the Jays into the playoffs, and that's the only way this trade makes sense from a baseball perspective. As mentioned, it DOES make sense from a short-term TV ratings and attendance perspective, if the team is more concerned with not losing than they are with winning.
Parker - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#260775) #
Cordero and Francisco had no practical value to anyone, IMO, and it clears the way for Snider which has value on it's own.

Do you really think the only thing holding back Snider's promotion was Ben Francisco's presence at the end of the Blue Jays bench?

Cal Jays - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#260776) #
Happ is posting his best K rate, K:BB rate and GB% of his professional career. His velocity according to fangraphs is the best its ever been. Under control for his 29-31 year old years and not a lot of mileage on his arm at all for his age. really good prospect coming into his own despite the ERA and WHIP. A solid LH starter as the number 3/4 guy going forward and an extension candidate for sure. I like it a lot.
jgadfly - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#260777) #
Huhmm ?!? ... prefer Happ to the other Tier 2 guys available ... Carpenter and Lyon  upgrade pen ... also Cordero gone ... Francisco departure allows Snider to play ...Woj, Rollins, & Musgrove possible threes/good pen arms at the very best  ... Peres possibly solid backup catcher/ utility guy with questionable power ... clears MiL roster space for higher rated/younger HS & IFA guys ... PTBNL ?
Oceanbound - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#260778) #
I'm guessing they must see something in Happ, that's the only explanation I can think of. I think Happ is just bad, so yeah... I don't get it.

Getting Snider into the lineup has nothing to do with this trade. If they wanted to do that they could have just optioned Francisco instead of trading guys away.
greenfrog - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#260779) #
"Perez was always a guy that was probably traceable given the relative value of catchers and the depth in the org"

Agreed, but catching prospects are a scarce resource in baseball. Dealing from a strength within your organization shouldn't mean selling low on resources that are scarce everywhere else.

However, I think it's a reasonable trade for both sides (if underwhelming for the Jays). My impression is that AA made the best deal he could without trading any top-tier talent. No top-15 prospects in the deal (based on my own rankings, which put a premium on upside). While I'm not happy about losing Wojo, Musgrove and Perez, I would slot them in around #15-25 in the Jays organization.

It gives the Jays a bit of a buffer going into the last 2.5 months of the season. If nothing else, it will protect the pitching staff and give them a couple of depth options for next year (Happ and Carpenter). It's a very nice deal for Houston, giving them a few good-but-not-great prospects to help move the rebuilding process along.

Still, how much more would it have taken to land someone really good and controllable like Latos or Gonzalez in the off-season?

One question: could it be that a deal like this is made partly because AA is accumulating too much prospect depth? In other words, were the Jays approaching the point of being unable to protect all of the prospects they liked?
PeteMoss - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#260780) #
Looker deeper into Happ's number... his groundball rate has jumped like crazy this year (46.9% this year vs 33% last year). His FIP and xFIP are way below his ERA. The Jays are a strong defensive team.. particularly with Snider/Gose replacing Bautista/Francisco.

I suspect they think he'll do much better in Toronto with a better defense.

This is an interesting article on Happ:
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/j-a-happ-looks-good-going-forward/
jjdynomite - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#260781) #
David Carpenter had an ERA under 3 last season and just turned 27 last week; yes, he's struggled this year but it's not like he's been pitching since age 19 -- and he's controllable for a while. I like his upside (unlike WYSIWYG Happ and Lyon) and he's MLB-ready as opposed to Woj et al. Hopefully he won't tear anything now that he's on the Jays' roster.
Magpie - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#260782) #
There's still one more roster move to come if Snider's being activated, and while it could be Lawrie to the DL, I suspect it will involve a pitcher. I don't think Lawrie needs fifteen days. More likely just two or three. Happ will replace either Laffey or Cecil in the rotation. I would hope it's Cecil, who could then go to the pen and become the LOOGY I have long said he should be (and A. Carpenter could be sent out.) Or maybe they just send Cecil back to the minors.
hypobole - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#260783) #
"One question: could it be that a deal like this is made partly because AA is accumulating too much prospect depth? In other words, were the Jays approaching the point of being unable to protect all of the prospects they liked?"

Thinking along the same lines. With all the talent accumulated over the past few years, there will eventually be a 40 man roster crunch. I expect a few more prospect trades in the next year or 2.
TamRa - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#260784) #
"Do you really think the only thing holding back Snider's promotion was Ben Francisco's presence at the end of the Blue Jays bench?"

ONLY thing? No.

But it's not in AA's genes to just drop a guy if he can avoid it. He wasn't going to just kick BF to the curb.

Magpie - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#260785) #
We'll have to wait a day to find out. Happ and Lyon will be activated tomorrow and Anthopoulos says they're both going to the bullpen. Snider is active tonight, in place of Francisco. Cordero is gone, so it's a 24 man roster tonight, and Brett Lawrie is one of the 24.
greenfrog - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#260786) #
Interesting note on Happ. His FB velocity has gradually increased every year since his debut in the majors, from 87.7 MPH in 2007 to 90.3 MPH this year.
Lylemcr - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#260787) #

I am not sure I understand the trade.  What it tells me is that they have soured a bit on Asher and Musgrove, and moved them (or they have too many good players in front of them).  I thought the prospects were a bit too much for what they are getting, but in the same breath, I don't see any of those players on the MLB roster 5 years from now. 

The other part of it, it tells you the premium you have to pay for pitching right now.  There is such a shortage.  Imagine what they would have to give up to get a Garza? 

I don't think the Jays are going for it, but they want to be respectable.  The pitching staff(and hitting) is decimated and they don't want to demoralize the team.   They have a young staff and they want to stay competitive.  The Jays are 27th in ERA.  I think AA is just trying to fill a hole so his team is not laughed off the field.

Thomas - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#260788) #
Agreed, but catching prospects are a scarce resource in baseball. Dealing from a strength within your organization shouldn't mean selling low on resources that are scarce everywhere else.

That's a fair point, but the attrition rate of catching prospects is also relatively high. There are a lot of points in Perez's favour, but he's still a long way from the majors.

In his interview with Wilner and Hayhurst, AA mentioned they didn't see Musgrove and Wojciechowski as front or mid-rotation talent. He also noted that Woj's stuff wasn't what it was in college over the last couple of years in Dunedin.

Lylemcr - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#260789) #
I also wonder if it changes some roster moves in the minors.  Maybe Asher was blocking players.  I am suspecting some shuffling in the  minors too.
greenfrog - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#260790) #
"That's a fair point, but the attrition rate of catching prospects is also relatively high"

Which could be viewed as a reason why (other things being equal) you need to maintain your hard-won catching depth. You can look at it from two perspectives. I'm not opposed to this trade in particular, just making a general point about valuation of prospects.
Thomas - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#260791) #
I agree that no casual fan will sit and watch a game because Happ is pitching versus Cecil but (to Magpie's point) I think this team was/is on the tipping point of falling into an abyss this season with the injuries etc. A fan is not likely to tune in to watch game 10 of a 10 game losing streak.

Nigel, that's true and I neglected to consider that angle in talking about ratings. However, I'm not really sure that the presence of Happ and Lyon in the bullpen is going to change the likelihood of a 10-game losing streak in any substantial way. Lyon will presumably bump/come in alongside Frasor in the pecking order for pitching the 7th and 8th inning of close games, but Frasor's a long way down the list of this team's weaknesses.

Paul D - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#260792) #
I think Happ's going to start. AA had to say he's going to the bullpen, because he's going to replace tonight's starter, and you don't want to tell Laffey that no matter what happens tongiht, he's going to the bullpen.

Alternatively, if Laffey's great tonight, you could keep in the rotation until he falters, then throw Happ in.
whiterasta80 - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#260793) #

Unconventional for sure, but I'm happy with the deal. It solves several problems at once, doesn't sacrifice any prospects I consider future stars, and gives us team control on a few guys with value. It also leaves the prospect chest full if we want to make another deal (in season or after the season). In short, typical of what I'd expect from AA.  And I disagree completely with the assertion that the fan base won't be energized by this deal.  I think will absolutely assuage those who have been crying for a deal.  That's not to say that we shouldn't make another deal, but this is a signal that we have started to address glaring on-field issues.

Happ is definitely a #3-5 guy next season with some upside (I love his K/9 but he's still ideally a 5).  He could also be a guy we send the other way in a subsequent trade for an elite pitcher (as he was for Oswalt last season).  Teams trading a star pitcher often want to replace the innings and until Happ arrived we didn't really have an option to offer there. Still, I think its more likely that Happ sticks with us and is in the rotation next year. Regardless Happ is a valuable commodity and someone who I would have moved Wojo (the only "prospect" I see in this deal) for straight up.

Carpenter is a live arm, has late inning potential and is worth a flyer as a thrown in.

Lyon, I don't think hits August 1st with us, but if he does then he can give us some valuable innings and stop Farrell from overworking 3 guys we will need to rely on heavily next season.

Sano - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#260794) #
I'm fine with this trade. Like others have said, it shows just how much our perspective on prospects is not accurate. Happ can be that innings-eater that we've all been yearning for and Lyon (and hopefully Carpenter) could be solid bullpen guys.

The other thing is that this allows Snider to come up. AA just said on the FAN that Snider/Gose will be in the corners with Davis back to the 4th OF spot.
bpoz - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#260796) #
I like this trade.

Are Lyon & Fraser comparable? We will find out. Lyon pitched well enough in the minors to get a call up as a 19 yr old. He is still kicking around.

Happ was considered/coveted? in the Halladay trade.

Carpenter can join the LV-Toronto shuttle.

More trades can still happen and now we have some extra bodies to fill non crucial roles.

I like Perez, he had 196ABs in the DSL in 2008. I am guessing that he would have to be added to the 40 man after the 2013 season. He may have got to NH by then.
Woj to 40 man after 2013 along with McGuire.
Musgrove I like, but cracking Lansing next year may be hard as a 3IP tandem. It would then get harder as the innings increased IMO. The survivors will have to be good in results & potential. Maybe he would have been one of these survivors.
John Northey - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#260797) #
Well, from a silly topic to 'wha'? 

JA Happ...
  • In Philly: 4 years 136 ERA+ 3.5 BB/9, 6.6 SO/9, 1.1 HR/9
  • In Houston: 3 years 81 ERA+ 4.2 BB/9, 7.9 SO/9, 1.2 HR/9
  • xFIP: best 3.94 worst 4.63.  Worst was in Philly (6.08) pre-trade, then 4.33 in Houston.
  • Wow - now that is a spread.  From a great team where he was looking great but was actually mediocre based on xFIP, to a bad team where he looked horrible but was actually the same pitcher or better (!)  This might be a classic AA move - get a guy who is undervalued due to environment more than due to actual skill level

Brandon Lyon...

  • First came up in Toronto back when Buck Martinez was manager and Gord Ash was GM
  • K/9 this year at 8.8, a career high by a good measure (over 1 K higher than ever before)
  • 2.8 BB/9 solid, career mark is 2.9
  • 0.8 HR/9 vs career 0.9
  • 0 saves, but that is due to Brett Myers being their closer and Houston stinking it up
David Carpenter...
  • Just 57 IP so far in his ML career, 1.1 HR/9 4.2 BB/9 8.8 K/9 87 ERA+
  • 184 2/3 IP in minors, all in relief, 0.5 HR/9 3.5 BB/9 9.6 K/9 2.97 ERA
  • Very poor hitting catcher (552 OPS) before converting to reliever.  

An interesting group. 


ayjackson - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#260798) #

Wojo and Perez for Lyon - fine with.

*vomits*

Why do the Jays need to give two B prospects for a rental middle reliever?

greenfrog - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#260799) #
Anyone who claims the trade was pure happenstance is lyon. The deal was in the works for a while.

Some people think AA is something of a ninja, but to me he's more of a carpenter ant.
stevieboy22 - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#260800) #
The only way this trade makes any sense to me, is that the Jays totally soured on Woj and Musgrove...
I trust AA...

So this a case where there must be some key information we dont know...

Mike Green - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#260801) #
I get the trade.  The pitching staff needs immediate help, not only to improve the chances of winning in 2012 but also to preserve the arms that are here.  This trade accomplishes this goal without giving up too much in the way of prospects. 

Napoli-Francisco was (to me) an obvious loss from the outset.  This one may or may not turn out well, but I understand and appreciate the deal. 

John Northey - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#260802) #
Looking at Happ he is the same pitcher who was coveted back in Philly, just poor results due to whatever (Houston isn't exactly a pitchers paradise anymore, nor is the team good in any respect which had to hurt) while Carpenter is an interesting one for the pen long term.

Perez is the one guy traded that I fear could come back to haunt the Jays - pitching prospects are just too variable unless they are dominate and Woj (23 repeating A+) & Musgrove (just 8 IP this year, total of 7.4 K/9 over 32 2/3 IP career) are not (ie: well over a K per inning).

TamRa - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#260804) #
Andrew Carpenter to Vegas? Has it been said? Or Loup going back down?

Magpie - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#260805) #
Andrew Carpenter to Vegas? Has it been said? Or Loup going back down?

Wait until tomorrow when Happ and Lyon actually join the team. Nothing happens until then. For now, add Snider, subtract Francisco and Cordero and go with 24 guys tonight.
85bluejay - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#260806) #
I agree that this may be the most boring 10 player trade in history - This trade is confluence of a number of factors - the injuries tothe staff of course, the failure of the FO to acquire Quality BP arms from the scrap heap (eg. Boston has acquired Miller/Acevedo/Morales/Padilla/Cook for not much) and the Failure of Jenkins & McGiure to step up - all have led to the Jays having to give up Farm depth - The disappointment is that these are the type of prospects that could be used as add ons to clinch a quality player.   
PeteMoss - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#260807) #
Happ and Lyon will join the team tomorrow... roster move to open a spot for Snider will made after the game.
sam - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#260808) #
Anyone else want to acknowledge the potential irony here. Twelve years to the day in which we gave up a so-so (hardly can't miss) 22 year old High A middle infield prospect for a mid-backend rotation arm? This trade is playing with fate way too much for my liking.
sam - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#260809) #
Sorry, Young was in AA at the time at 23 hitting .275/.340/.426
sam - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#260810) #
And irony is perhaps not the best word. Déjà vu.
greenfrog - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#260811) #
I totally get the trade from Houston's POV. If only one of the Jays prospects becomes a solid-average player, it will have been worth it. With the scarcity of pitching and catching in the game, the prospects don't have to have superstar potential. For example, if Perez turns out to be an average-fielding catcher with decent hitting ability (wRC+ this year of 125) and six years of control, he'll have significant value for the Astros.
John Northey - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#260812) #
For the Jays it becomes good if Happ can get the results he saw in Philly.  His xFIP suggests he is the same guy or even better, but his ERA says otherwise.  Lots of variables, odds are this is a trade that could look one way at the end of 2012 and completely different in 2016.
TamRa - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#260813) #
Davidi tweeted that Andrew Carpenter would head out after tonight's game
Magpie - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#260814) #
Davidi tweeted that Andrew Carpenter would head out after tonight's game

I don't think so. His text reads "Happ and Lyon to be activated tomorrow, Carpenter to LV. Jays will make a move post-game tonight." From the context (the fate of the new guys), seems pretty clear that it's the new Carpenter heading to Vegas. Where he could soon be joined by the other Carpenter, but wait and see.
Mike Green - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#260815) #
The Carpenters...We've only just begun.
greenfrog - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#260816) #
The Astros were hapless before the trade. Now they're the Happless Astros.
katman - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#260818) #
Sorry, greenfrog. Mike Green wins that pun contest, hands down.
Magpie - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#260819) #
Adam Lind is hitting cleanup tonight. (Gose 9, Rasnus 8, Encarnacion 3, Lind 0, Arencibia 2, Johnson 4, Escobar 6, Snider 7, Gomes 5, Laffey 1)

Gentlemen, start your engines.
sam - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#260820) #
And Arencibia is hitting fifth. The batting order is excitement...look away...SNIDER!!!
Kelekin - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#260821) #
I love how many people are trying to justify this trade, but maybe we should acknowledge for once that AA did not come out 'winning' any portion of a deal.  Most of the players in this trade don't matter - the only players that matter are Wojo/Musgrove/Perez and J.A. Happ.  As far as I'm concerned, Wojo wasn't going to become much of anything other than a bullpen arm.  However, Happ has had one good year.  You don't need advanced metrics to see that his lowest WHIP in the past three years is 1.38.  Trading for Happ is the terrible move.  I would not be surprised long-term if David Carpenter is the only useful member we got.

The only part of the trade I really hate is having given up Musgrove who was starting to get noticed by the prospect rankers. 

Alex Obal - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#260822) #
The batting order is excitement...

The batting order may make a bit more sense if you imagine Johnson is the leadoff hitter, I guess. Not sure why Encarnacion would ever hit seventh, though.
Ryan Day - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#260823) #
... maybe we should acknowledge for once that AA did not come out 'winning' any portion of a deal

Has anyone said he won the deal? Even the people who are in favour of it (such as myself) hardly seem to see it as a steal.

He acquired some useful pieces. He gave up some players who may, eventually, turn into useful or better pieces.

Not every trade has a winner and a loser, particularly right after it was made.
chocolatethunder - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#260825) #
Great drama last night with Snider being pulled( found out here)...to the roster numbers not equalling out to the announcement of the trade....and despite some reviews gotta like the trade...IMO we didn't give up much....biggest plus no more Cordero talk on Jays talk
greenfrog - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#260826) #
So, the Jays' bullpen now comprises:

Janssen
Oliver
Frasor
Lyon
Happ
Loup
Beck
Carpenter, A. (for now)

With a rotation of:

Romero
Alvarez
Villanueva
Cecil
Laffey

Is this correct?
whiterasta80 - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#260827) #

While I don't think the Jays robbed Houston blind or anything, I think this trade is perfectly justifiable.  As someone who has seen such can't miss prospects as Eddie Zosky, Steve Karsay, Francisco Rosario, Jose Silva, Kevin Witt, Josh Phelps, Felipe Lopez, Jason Arnold, Guilerimo Querioz, and Brett Wallace (and countless others) fail to pan out I am 100% confident that this board overvalues their prospects on a level not seen outside of the Bronx. 

I think we've gained alot here and haven't given up that much.  Houston is a team that should be looking for lottery tickets.  We've already hit ours with Bautista, EE, Rasmus and Lawrie.  Now is time to build around those guys and this is a trade that does that both this year and into the future. 

Also, while I acknowledge that Happ is never going to be a top of the rotation type I will say that leading the astros in strikeouts (over Bud Norris and Wandy Rodriguez) is somewhat impressive. Also, regardless of how he got there a 7-9 record on this absolutely ABYSMAL Astros team is a herculean performance akin to Pedro's 2000 season.

TamRa - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#260828) #
"I love how many people are trying to justify this trade, but maybe we should acknowledge for once that AA did not come out 'winning' any portion of a deal. "

I don't think there are any winners or losers here but...

Keith Law: "For Toronto, this move adds pitching depth at a cost of fringe prospects were one bad half-season away from losing any trade value they had."

BP: "What the Astros received was minor-league depth and just a bit of upside. "

Read more here:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17727

So the view from outside does not seem to be that we lost potentially very valuable guys. Two likely middle relievers, a catcher who might be kind of okay in 2016 and after, and a starter with some potential to be a 3-5 type 5 or 6 years from now.

Whatever we got, there's a decent probability we never once look back and say "I wish we'd kept..." about any of them.
sweat - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#260829) #
If Happ's regular numbers (ERA) improve to match some of the more advanced metrics, isn't he worth a couple of guys like Perez and Musgrove on his own?
He fills in until our starting staff is healthy, and then get's moved for 1 or 2 similar types of prospect.  Also, with the high number of good Jays prospects, there isn't going to be room on the 40 man for every one of them.

Kelekin - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#260830) #
None of this counter-argues what I said.  We did not win this deal.  I didn't say we lost badly, though.  But if you had to rate deals AA has made, where would this one go?  The only trade I would put lower than this was the value we received in the Halladay trade.

If you're rating on return value, we did not receive much of a return.  The flipside is we did not give up that much to get the low return.

TamRa - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#260831) #
Adam Lind is hitting cleanup tonight. (Gose 9, Rasnus 8, Encarnacion 3, Lind 0, Arencibia 2, Johnson 4, Escobar 6, Snider 7, Gomes 5, Laffey 1)

Gentlemen, start your engines.
-----------------------------

Lind has hit well enough since returning I have no beef with that. Who among the options is better suited?

JPA hitting fifth, however? THAT troubles me. But it's either that or back-to-back lefties...
Ryan Day - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#260832) #
The Jays certainly got the worst of the Hill-Johnson swap. And Nestor Molina may not be a star, but all AA got in return was 5 innings and a bunch of doctor bills.
uglyone - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#260833) #
Looks to me like an overpay, but that doesn't mean we paid much. All 3 of Woj, Perez, and Musgrove have MLB potential...but Woj and Perez had stagnated by this point, not overly impressive this year despite repeating a level (and a level not advanced for their age even last year, let alone this year). Musgrove still has his prospect shine going, but still has limited upside. The chances that any of these guys becomes better than what the likes of Lyon or Happ are now aren't huge. I don't think any of them would have cracked our top-15 at the moment, and they'd all be borderline to even crack the top-20.

That being said, aside from a nice message to the team that he's not giving up on the season, the guys we got back aren't very impressive. Lyon should be a solid reliever, but Happ I'm not sure will give us anything different than laffey or cecil as an SP....that being said, having one of the three lefties as a reliever should be an upgrade to the 'pen at least. Not holding my breath on Carpenter...probably just another Roenicke.

The prospects we gave up weren't great prospects....but they were legit prospects, and 3 of them is a fairly hefty price to give up for a short-term 'pen upgrade, IMO.

TamRa - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#260834) #
"None of this counter-argues what I said. We did not win this deal. I didn't say we lost badly, though. But if you had to rate deals AA has made, where would this one go? The only trade I would put lower than this was the value we received in the Halladay trade."

If you don't like the return of the Doc deal then we might not have a common frame of reference but, IMO, the worst return given what we gave up - judged only in hindsight, was the Napoli deal.

The Hill swap is looking bad now, though it's debateable whether Hill would have ever done that well here.

Certainly in both cases - in hindsight - the return was less satisfactory than whet the traded guy did after the deal.

Chuck - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#260835) #

the worst return given what we gave up - judged only in hindsight, was the Napoli deal.

No, foresight as well.

Magpie - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#260836) #
We did not win this deal. I didn't say we lost badly, though.

I think that anybody who says "win" or "lost" today, or tomorrow, or the next day at any point over the next few years is actively looking for a shark to jump over. Nobody knows anything. Not yet, and not for a good while to come. Let's see what happens.

And just in case people have forgotten, there were regrets expressed in this very corner of the Internets over the team losing noted catching prospect Robinson Diaz for fringey major leaguer Jose Bautista. Youneverknow. Never never never never never, as old King Lear put it, under sadder circumstances.
Alex Obal - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#260837) #
Captain Obvious knows everyone here knows this, but wants to rehearse this line for future use:

The "value" going back and forth in a trade is never equal. Each team always thinks it came out ahead because its perception of the "value" changing hands is colored by intertemporal, positional, and chemistry considerations. Point #1: To say that the Astros made themselves better off is trivial. I should hope they did. Point #2: To say the Astros "won" the trade according to the players' apparent value on July 20, 2012 does not imply that Toronto shouldn't have made the deal. That Houston probably comes out ahead on "value" may reflect poorly on certain things Toronto did this past winter. But not necessarily on this trade, unless you want to say AA could've found comparable pitchers cheaper, or that the price of above-replacement-level pitching is so exorbitant that he should've just sat tight, taken his lumps, and run Cecil, Laffey and Romero into the ground. I don't buy either of those notions; I could be convinced. One nice thing about coming out ahead on "value" in everything you do is that it lets you afford trades like this where you might come out behind.

Of course, sometimes the GM is also concerned with non-baseball factors, like his own job security (a bad thing) or orders to slash payroll (bad though not the GM's fault) or fan morale (arguably bad though you'd have to convince me; I wonder if it's part of the rationale for calling up Snider). Or the GM can be an incompetent talent evaluator, I guess. When those factors play a role, a team can make itself worse off. Is that really what's going on here - AA makes a deal he otherwise wouldn't have because the fans will be galvanized by gaining an extra win in September and losing persona non grata Cordero? I don't buy that.

Last point: What Happ did in 2009 in Philly's bandbox was remarkable, and there are worse ways to use a rotation slot the rest of the year than letting him try to find his touch again. I don't consider him an innings eater just yet, even if one reason he's here is to eat innings.
Alex Obal - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#260838) #
The Astros were hapless before the trade. Now they're the Happless Astros.

When J.A. turns into a perennial all-star, they'll look back on this trade as a mishap

uglyone - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#260841) #
just want to point out to everyone that Napoli has a .743ops this year, and rates as a horrific defensive catcher by most every metric.

not to mention that for all the hate, FrankyFrank did manage to post a 3.55era witha 9.4k/9 for us last year.
Anders - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#260842) #
Keith Law on TSN 1050:

None of the prospects Jays sent away are likely to be significant players, with all three pitchers likely bullpen arms, with Perez's ceiling being backup catcher.

JA Happ isn't a difference maker, but he is a body. Deck McGuire and Chad Jenkins haven't developed, which partially necessitated this trade.

On Snider: Snider needs to play every day, needs to get the reps, and the Jays can't bench him if he has a couple of 0-fers. The team has to make a decision on him this year, and his trade value is down.

The long term outlook for the Jays is pretty bright, and in a year Toronto will probably be more of a position to make splashy big moves. He doesn't think there's any issue with players wanting to come to Toronto, but there are tax differences between here and say, Florida or Texas, and Toronto may have to pay 10% more.

There was a lengthy discussion about the movie Brave.

Chuck - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#260843) #

Napoli 2011 > Francisco 2011.
Napoli 2012 > Francisco 2012.

Citing Francisco 2011 > Napoli 2012 is cherry picking.

Spookie Wookie - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#260844) #
Also got Smoral with the F Francisco compensation pick.
85bluejay - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#260845) #
I wonder whom the PTBNL is? Joe Musgrove is the guy I lament losing the most - he's young enough with enough upside to still dream about - Kinda glad Asher Wojciechowski got moved because everytime I read his name, I remember that the next 3 players drafted after him were Drew Vettleson,Taijuan Walker and Nick Castellanos and wonder if the new scouting director was hesitant to draft 3 HS on that first day of the 1st draft of the new regime and went a little conservative  with a 2nd college player - it may seem odd, but that's how I rationalise.
Gerry - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#260846) #
I don't have anything to add except this AA quote from the Fan590 today which might explain the Jays perspective on Happ:

We thing there is more upside there... he is getting better later in his career.
China fan - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#260847) #
The factor that everyone is forgetting is how desperate the Jays are for a 5th starter. The injuries have decimated their rotation -- and the bullpen and the AAA depth too. There's nobody available at the AA level (McGuire, Jenkins and Stilson are not close to being ready), and there is nobody remaining in the bullpen who can be converted to the rotation. And virtually all of the current rotation is shaky. Cecil and Alvarez could implode at any point. Villanueva and Laffey seem fine now, but both may be playing above their heads. Romero is having a bad year. If any of those five go down, who do the Jays have left? Chavez or Richmond? Indy-league Shawn Hill? Please.

The Jays are playing with fire, because they have zero depth remaining in the rotation and most of their starters are unreliable. They are down to the 9th and 10th pitchers in their pre-season depth chart. They had to make a trade. They were lucky that they managed to acquire an experienced major-league starter (with some upside) without losing any of their top-15 prospects and none of their significant major-league players. They converted their depth (minor-league prospects) into a desperately needed starter, along with a couple other pitchers too. In the long run, depending on Musgrove and Wojo, the Jays might lose the trade -- but that really doesn't matter now.
grjas - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#260852) #
I think we are viewing this trade thru the wrong lens. This is not about contending it is about surviving. The jays need at least two more proven pitchers to contend this year - given injuries and a slow off season- and in a buyers market, this won't happen.

The challenge now is protecting the future. Ten days ago, this team had about 5 or 6 major league starters/relievers and a bunch of minor leaguers. In this scenario, the risk of blowing out another arm of a janssen, a villanueva, or an oliver is huge. This helps protect the future and to me makes a lot of sense.

Now AA, go find us some real talent so we don't have this scenario again in a year.
Craig B - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#260854) #
Wojicechowski and Perez aren't "B prospects". They are C+ guys at most, more properly C guys. They're just guys. There are 15 pitchers and 15 hitters basically like them in the farm system.

The likelihood is that none of the minor leaguers will turn out to be as good a player as Happ.
Craig B - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#260855) #
Regarding winning or losing the trade. The Jays are a better team now than yesterday, and their farm system is just as good as it was. That's not necessarily a win (they actually took on about $1 million of salary... I am really surprised they're not reported as getting cash) but I can't be fussed about it.
Richard S.S. - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#260857) #
Hitters come here, get better, either stay or leave.
Pitchers come here, at any age, get better and stay or don't and leave.
It's just that simple.


Lyon is playing for another contract. He might get it here (with our pitching support staff), if he's effective. Happ may just learn here, how to be better, when the Staff looks at his stuff. Carpenter could still develop into a good pitcher. I just think the Staff will make them better, if they can.

What did we get? MLB - Capable Depth. What did we lose? Replaceable MLB players and minor league (2nd tier) prospects, unlikely to be in Toronto prior to late 2014. Acquiring Pitching always costs more than you expect.
JB21 - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#260858) #
The Jays DFA's Andrew Carpenter, but do they not have to send one more player down? I count 26 players if we add all 3 pitchers that we acquired. Is David Carpenter reporting to Vegas? Or do I have an error below?

C JP Arencibia
1B Edwin Encarnacion
2B Kelly Johnson
3B Brett Lawrie
SS Yunel Escobar
LF Travis Snider
CF Colby Rasmus
RF Anthony Gose
DH Adam Lind
BC Jeff Mathis
B Yan Gomes
B Rajai Davis
B Omar Vizquel

SP Ricky Romero
SP Hendeson Alvarez
SP Carlos Villanueva
SP Aaron Laffey
SP Brett Cecil
RP Casey Janssen
RP Darren Oliver
RP Jason Frasor
RP Aaron Loup
RP Chad Beck
RP Brandon Lyon
RP JA Happ
RP David Carpenter
China fan - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#260859) #
David Carpenter is starting off in Las Vegas.
JB21 - Friday, July 20 2012 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#260861) #
Thanks!
Oceanbound - Saturday, July 21 2012 @ 12:30 AM EDT (#260863) #
Wojicechowski and Perez aren't "B prospects". They are C+ guys at most, more properly C guys. They're just guys. There are 15 pitchers and 15 hitters basically like them in the farm system.

Maybe in the Jays system. Not in the Astros system. Sickels graded Woj and Musgrove as B-, and Perez as C+ heading into the season, maybe you should take it up with him.
TamRa - Saturday, July 21 2012 @ 02:59 AM EDT (#260868) #
Well...looking at the rotation going forward...

Romero locked in for years
Marrow locked in for years
Alvarez years from free agency
Happ here until 2015
Hutchison years from free agency
McGowan has a couple more years if he's ever healthy
Stroman might follow the Sale route and be a starter here by 2013
Drabek ready for majors again by next September
Sanchez/Syndergaard/Nicolino start filtering in by 2015
Stilson might be ready a year from now if he doesn't regress
McGuire and Jenkins definitely on fringes but one good year might put them on the map for 2014


The guy I didn't mention? Brett Cecil.

it seems to me that the blindingly obvious thing to do here, as long as laffey (inexplicably) and Villianueva keep pitching well, is to send Cecil to the 'pen and tell him to do nothing else but learn everything he can from Darren Oliver.


In theory, you could have these guys as bullpen options next year:

Santos
Janssen
Oliver
Cecil

and some combination of:

Carpenter
Beck
Stilson
Dyson
Loup
Crawford
Carreno

And Perez around mid-season

And he will probably sign/re-sign a couple of more veteran guys (you could do a lot worse than bringing Villianueva back)

Seems to me the best way to prepare for the future and meet today's needs is to simply admit that Cecil's future lies in the Downs/Oliver role. If he's going to be a Blue Jay at all.

Richard S.S. - Saturday, July 21 2012 @ 03:17 AM EDT (#260869) #
Houston needed to restock a depleted farm system and did. Both Francisco Cordero and Ben Francisco were more suited to the NL than the AL East. So for what Houston needed, they won this trade.

Toronto had no depth in their pitching staff anywhere. David Carpenter doesn't have much mileage on his arm as a former catcher. He's not eligible for 1st Arby until 2015, or later. An A.A. project, he could learn to be very effective. J.A. Happ has the potential to be a #3 starter at best or a #5 starter at worst. It all depends if this Staff can teach him anything. A.A. must think so. Brandon Lyon is an effective reliever who can pitch late in games. He should be an upgrade on F.C. Toronto was after effective pitching depth and they got it. So Toronto won too.
92-93 - Saturday, July 21 2012 @ 04:28 AM EDT (#260870) #

The Jays are a better team now than yesterday, and their farm system is just as good as it was.

Denigrate the prospect package they parted with all you want, but saying their farm system is as strong as it was before the trade is just silly. They gave up value to make this trade.

greenfrog - Saturday, July 21 2012 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#260872) #
We thing there is more upside there... he is getting better later in his career.

Gerry: having had success with late-20s surges by Bautista and EE, perhaps AA is looking for other late bloomers as a potentially untapped source of value. I like the fact that Happ's velocity has been steadily improving over the years, and that his components stats this year are good.
jennandchad - Saturday, July 21 2012 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#260873) #
Why does someone have to "win" or "lose" this trade? It was a good move for both teams. While I am sure AA would have wanted to hang on to one of the prospects - this deal needed to be done. We had two wasted roster spots with Cordero/Franciso plus I think Happ is going to be part our rotation for the next couple of years (back half obviously) and we may have found a legitimate reliever in Carpenter as well. I like the deal and I am sure most Houston fans like the deal too. AA knows what he's doing and I like the strategy - but there is clearly some risk here. For everyone that thinks a big "one" is coming, I just don't see it happening. Assuming Romero can bounce back at some point and Morrow will be back healthy, I think we are fine. Clearly we could easily be 10 games over .500 if we had Morrow/Santos all year and a slightly effective Cordero. I know these are all what ifs, but lets not make it seem like this season is wasted and we are headed in the wrong direction.
China fan - Saturday, July 21 2012 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#260875) #
On a perhaps more trivial note: I wonder which Jay will emerge as the new hate figure for angry fans who want scapegoats for Jay losses? All of the loudest fan-base crusades have been appeased or neutralized. The biggest hate-figures (Cordero and Thames) have been traded or demoted. Davis and Francisco, both accused of blocking the fan-favorite Snider, have been benched or traded. Snider is now on the major-league team, presumably for the rest of the season, so that whole controversy has been defused. Rasmus was briefly a hate-figure in the off-season and in April, but now he's emerged as a fan favorite. Adam Lind was widely reviled, but his penance in Vegas and his recent revival have muted the jeers, at least for now. (His OPS is .995 since his return.)

So who's left to hate? JPA's season numbers are pretty bad, and his defense is perceived as questionable, but he's been doing better lately (OPS of .959 this month), and his personal charm will disarm the boo-birds. Escobar's numbers are even worse, but at least his defense is good, and fans remember his good hitting of last year.

I predict that two Jays will become the new objects of derision: Kelly Johnson, who seems to lack the charisma that fans prefer, and Brett Cecil, who lacks the velocity that wows the fans. Of course a legitimate statistical case can be mounted that they are under-performing, so the criticism is not entirely unwarranted, but the attacks will be partly based on stereotypes and caricatures, as is always the case with fan perceptions.

If Cecil is replaced by Happ in the rotation, I will feel sorry for KJ, who might become the biggest scapegoat by default. If he's lucky, Adam Lind will fall into a slump again.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 21 2012 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#260876) #
and Brett Cecil, who lacks the velocity that wows the fans

It might have more to do with his 6.34 ERA (68 ERA+) and iffy performances generally. I suspect fans would love him if he got the job done.

it seems to me that the blindingly obvious thing to do here...is to send Cecil to the 'pen and tell him to do nothing else but learn everything he can from Darren Oliver

I'm sure Cecil could learn a thing or two from Oliver, but they are actually quite dissimilar pitchers (perhaps that's the problem). Oliver typically throws two pitches: FB (at least 65% of the time - this year about 75%) and slider (most of the rest of the time). He very occasionally throws a change.

In contrast, Cecil's repertoire breaks down as follows in 2012: FB (40%), slider (15.4%), curve (27.1%), change (17.5%). Despite almost identical FB velocity, Cecil is currently much more of a junkballer who relies on a diverse range of pitches and often pitches backwards. He's also giving up significantly more walks (3.31/9 IP versus Oliver's 2.27/9 IP). It looks to me as though Cecil is experimenting in order to find an approach that allows his stuff to play, but he has yet to find one that consistently works.
92-93 - Saturday, July 21 2012 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#260877) #
You can't compare the repertoire of a starter and a reliever; their usage patterns are always going to be much different. Cecil was drafted as a college closer who was said to have an MLB-ready slider. The curveball was just another weapon he needed as a starter and the changeup was something he developed when he cut his finger making chicken salad and couldn't grip the curveball the rest of spring training. In fact if you look at Oliver's repertoire as a starter you'll see that it's not all that different from Cecil's. Brett might ultimately make a very nice LOOGY out of the bullpen where he can focus on perfecting one off speed pitch and can throw fastballs at max effort to provide some extra juice.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 21 2012 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#260879) #
I'm sure that's true in many cases. But take a look at Wade Davis, who is having a good year after being switched to the bullpen. He has kept pretty much the same repertoire:

Career: FB (69.9%), SL (10%), CB (15.9%), CH (4.2%)
2012: FB (67.7%), SL (7.4%), CB (21%), CH (3.9%)

At least in some cases, the comparison is pretty much apples to apples.
PeteMoss - Saturday, July 21 2012 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#260881) #
Davis is a different case though as he's likely to go back to being a starter when either Tampa has a spot open or they trade him.

Cecil's looking like a washout as a starter at this point. He'd have no need to keep his weakest pitches.
CeeBee - Saturday, July 21 2012 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#260882) #
Jason Frasor says hello to the DL.... any bets on who's next?
Original Ryan - Saturday, July 21 2012 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#260884) #
Jason Frasor says hello to the DL.... any bets on who's next?

If I had been running the team through all this, I probably would've put a few water coolers on the DL by now.

Richard S.S. - Sunday, July 22 2012 @ 03:29 AM EDT (#260889) #
When you consider where Asher Wojciechowski, Joe Musgrove, Dave Rollins sat in our organization, you can be assured they are top prospects now, as is Carlos Perez. Generally a PTBNL is not of the same caliber of the initial trade, probably one of a list that's being scouted now.

My only concern is who A.A. Is after now. The bullpen has Chad Beck, Aaron Loup and Andrew Carpenter as major Bullpen pieces. That isn't inspiring confidence in their abilities. Henderson Alvarez is struggling, without his normal consistancy. Brett Cecil is lucky, he's just not that good. As for Carlos and Aaron, how long can they keep it going?

I can see A.A. acquiring a controllable frontline Starter for a package including a couple of Top Prospects if he also gets a Reliever.
scottt - Sunday, July 22 2012 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#260902) #
If Houston is gunning for the #1 pick in the 2013 draft, they could have done a lot worse than Cordero.
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