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Minor League Update Baseball America's Top 30 Jays Prospects For 2013
My copy of the bible arrived in the mailbox — the Baseball America 2013 Prospect Handbook! Texas prospect Jurickson Profar is on the cover.

2012 first round pick D.J. Davis is the highest rated position player in the Jays farm system according to Baseball America.


Baseball America gives each prospect a numerical grade based on the traditional 20-80 scouting scale:
  • 75-80 Franchise players/number one starters.
  • 65-70 Perennial All-Stars/number two starters.
  • 55-60 First division regular/number three starters/closers.
  • 45-50 Second division regulars/number four starters/eighth inning relievers.
  • 35-40 Number five starters/utility players/backup catchers/relievers.
BA also rates prospects from a risk factor standpoint:
  • Safe - player is ready to contribute in the bigs and has shown a realistic ceiling.
  • Low - player is likely to reach his ceiling and become a big leaguer.
  • Medium - player still has some tools to sharpen.
  • High - player is a first year draft pick.
  • Extreme - teenager in rookie ball or a player with significant history of injuries.

No.# Player Position Grade     Risk 2012 Rank
1
 Travis d'Arnaud*
 C
 60
 Medium
 1
2
 Noah Syndergaard*
 RHP
 60
 High
 7
3
 Aaron Sanchez
 RHP
 60
 High
 6
4
 Roberto Osuna
 RHP
 55
 High
 30
5
 Marcus Stroman
 RHP
 55
 High
 NR
6
 D.J. Davis
 OF
 60
 Extreme
 NR
7
 John Stilson
 RHP
 50
 Medium
 26
8
 Daniel Norris
 LHP
 60
 Extreme
 4
9
 Matt Smoral
 LHP
 60
 Extreme
 NR
10
 Anthony Alford
 OF
 60
 Extreme
 NR
11
 A.J. Jimenez
 C
 50
 High
 12
12
 Tyler Gonzales
 RHP
 50
 High
 NR
13
 Franklin Barreto
 SS/OF
 55
 Extreme
 NR
14
 Santiago Nessy
 C
 50
 High
 NR
15
 Alberto Tirado
 RHP
 50
 High
 NR
16
 Dwight Smith Jr.
 OF
 50
 High
 16
17
 Matt Dean
 3B
 50
 High
 11
18
 Chad Jenkins
 RHP
 45
 Medium
 28
19
 Sean Nolin
 LHP
 45
 Medium
 NR
20
 Deck McGuire
 RHP
 45
 Medium
 8
21
 Kevin Pillar
 OF
 45
 Medium
 NR
22
 Chase DeJong
 RHP
 50
 High
 NR
23
 Christian Lopes
 2B/SS
 50
 High
 29
24
 Mitch Nay
 3B
 50
 High
 NR
25
 Wuilmer Becerra*
 OF
 50
 Extreme
 NR
26
 Dawel Lugo
 SS
 50
 Extreme
 6
27
 Dickie Joe Thon
 SS
 50
 Extreme
 27
28
 Jairo Labourt
 LHP
 50
 Extreme
 6
29
 Yeyfrey Del Rosario
 RHP
 45
 High
 NR
30
 Chris Hawkins
 OF
 45
 High
 25

* - No longer with organization. Traded to New York Mets for RHP R.A. Dickey.

The 31st rated prospect for the Jays is lefty Tyler Ybarra, who is also being picked as the team's sleeper prospect for 2013 by BA's Nathan Rode. Outfielder Dwight Smith Jr. is Rode's pick to have a breakout season while since departed catcher Travis d'Arnaud is being tabbed as the team's Rookie of the Year. In the team rankings, Baseball America rates the Blue Jays 12th out of 30 teams — a drop of seven spots from 2012.



Dwight Smith Jr. maintained his number 16 ranking in the Jays system and is being pegged by Baseball America to have a breakout season in 2013.

In their respective Top 50 prospects lists, Jim Callis has d'Arnaud sixth and righties Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Sanchez 48th and 49th. J.J. Cooper listed d'Arnaud as his 22nd best prospect while Will Lingo and John Manuel had d'Arnaud rated at 29 and 24 respectively.

From last year's Top 30 with rankings in parentheses — Anthony Gose (2), Drew Hutchison (9), Adeiny Hechavarria (13), Moises Sierra (15) and David Cooper (22) all saw time with the big league club. Jake Marisnick (3), Justin Nicolino (5), Asher Wojociechowski (10), Hechavarria, Carlos Perez (14), Kevin Comer (17) and Joe Musgrove (20) — along with d'Arnaud, Syndergaard and Wuilmer Becerra — are no longer with the organization. Adonys Cardona (18), Kellen Sweeney (19), Jacob Anderson (21), Michael Crouse (23) and Marcus Knecht (24) all dropped out of this year's Top 30 list.

The winds of change certainly swept through the farm system as the big league club goes for it in 2013. It'll be interesting to see how quickly the club replenishes its depth moving forward.
Posted by #2JBrumfield on Saturday, February 09 2013 @ 01:12 AM EST.
Baseball America's Top 30 Jays Prospects For 2013 | 31 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
92-93 - Saturday, February 09 2013 @ 01:43 AM EST (#268636) #
Pretty surprised Cardona isn't in the Top 30.
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Thomas - Saturday, February 09 2013 @ 08:38 AM EST (#268637) #
Thanks, Niall.

I have a couple of follow-up questions. Can you tell us where the prospects traded for Reyes, Johnson and company rank in the Marlins system? I assume they start at number 3, behind Fernandez and Yelich? Also, do the Jays have more "high" and "extreme" risk prospects than most team near the top of their list? It seems to me that you have to go down the list quite a ways until you find "medium" risk prospects like Jenkins and Nolin.
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hypobole - Saturday, February 09 2013 @ 10:30 AM EST (#268638) #
To continue with the Sanchez discussion from the KLaw list thread, I wonder how BA came up with a 60 grade (#3 starter ceiling) for him? No denying he's High risk, but that ceiling seems counter to other info. Yesterday in a Fangraphs chat, Mike Newman stated:

" Every scout I've ever spoken to about Sanchez raved about him. I'm not sure there are 5 pitching prospects in baseball with a higher ceiling."
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Mike Green - Saturday, February 09 2013 @ 11:15 AM EST (#268639) #
I guess BA imports some kind of realism into their ceilings now.  Sanchez has a decent chance to be Juan Guzman or A.J. Burnett, and has the remote possibility of being Sam McDowell.  Syndergaard has a decent chance of being a very good durable starter, with better control and less electric stuff than a Guzman or Burnett. 
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greenfrog - Saturday, February 09 2013 @ 12:07 PM EST (#268641) #
Aaron Sanchez reminds me of a young Aaron Sanchez.
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TamRa - Sunday, February 10 2013 @ 06:22 AM EST (#268643) #
I just hope he doesn't follow the footsteps of Alex Sanchez
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Named For Hank - Sunday, February 10 2013 @ 09:40 AM EST (#268644) #
Which Sanchez fed the CIA agent to the shark and got involved in televangelism? I hope he doesn't turn out like that Sanchez.
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bpoz - Sunday, February 10 2013 @ 01:12 PM EST (#268647) #
I am not sure I understand this ranking/evaluation process. Since we are dealing in unknowns, ie prospects, there is a lot of guesswork & projection.

Prior to this off season AA traded for high end talent. Morrow, Y Escobar, Lawrie, Rasmus. They were made available because their teams considered them problem people or had decided that their expectations had diminished. I suppose that they would get about a 65 number, maybe better in some cases. So these are potential All Stars, I guess.

Even 1 franchise player is good to have. IMO we developed Bautista & traded for J Reyes. Those 2 players may be franchise players.
In 2009 Hill & Lind had career years. That year their performances were worthy of All Stardom IMO. I never expected Hill to hit 35 HR but I thought Lind could do it.
In 2013 35 HR from any of Rasmus, JPA, Lawrie & Lind would not shock me as I see them having that potential. I saw that potential in EE as well and he came through in 2012.

IMO Janssen has had 2 really good years, but as a reliever. Often relievers are not given their due IMO. In 2011 Romero was the only good starter we had & in 2012 Morrow gets a "maybe" because his injuries prevented him from having a full year.

If the RPs like Rogers & Loup as well as all those prospects can produce 4 Janssen RPs then I think I will be happy. That is not right, it would make the system a failure, we need some decent SPs. I mean MacGowan, Marcum, Litsch, Janssen, Zep, Cecil and then Alvarez, Drabek, Z Stewart, Hutch, Purcey, Mills & L Perez are a lot of names. We are still weighing what we have. I liked them all, but I gave up on Z Stewart quite fast.
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greenfrog - Sunday, February 10 2013 @ 01:56 PM EST (#268648) #
Which Sanchez fed the CIA agent to the shark and got involved in televangelism?

On the plus side, this would be an effective way to make batters think twice before charging the mound.
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sam - Sunday, February 10 2013 @ 04:31 PM EST (#268650) #
The vast majority of these guys are a long ways off from being considered anything close to major league ready. Another way of looking at this off season, the trades the Jays made likely bought a lot of guys another year or two of development. The urgency that creeps in when a big league club is doing poorly or simply lacking of ML average players to promote guys--who perhaps would benefit more from a full season at one level--tends to percolate. Considering a lot of these guys are big time boom/bust type prospects, patience and slow development at the lower levels is really a requisite for long-term success.

For example, whereas someone like Aaron Sanchez might fare well at High-A this year, if the team was struggling with a devoid of pitching in Toronto there might be calls to "free" Sanchez. Sanchez is still two-three years away and should pitch the full season at High-A, the following at AA, and then the following at AAA with a cup of coffee in September.

Similarly, guys like Marcus Stroman who could probably stand to face more professional hitters and shows potential to an above average ML starter will likely get a full season at AA, instead of jumping pitching sparingly in an ML bullpen.
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jerjapan - Sunday, February 10 2013 @ 05:30 PM EST (#268653) #
Well said Sam, and I sincerely hope the slow build approach is the way the team takes with these long-range boom or bust type prospects.  That said, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Stroman in the big league pen late in the season if the team needs an arm.  Possibly not the best thing for his development, but certainly a quick and simple fix for the team if he's progressing well. 
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John Northey - Sunday, February 10 2013 @ 09:21 PM EST (#268654) #
While many think the slow and steady approach is best, with pitchers the rules are a bit different.  You build them up as best you can but once they can pitch in the majors you get them up here ASAP and it can happen all of the sudden.  Lets check the last few AL Cy Young winners...

David Price: 27 games in minors, 98 ERA+ his first full season in majors, 130 ERA+ since.
Justin Verlander: 20 games in minors, 125 ERA+ his first full season in majors, lifetime 128 with just one year sub 124.
Felix Hernandez: 58 games in minors (ages 17-19), 98 ERA+ his first full season in majors, 127 overall (that 98 was his only year sub 100)
Zack Greinke: 35 games in minors (ages 18-20) 120 ERA+ his first full season, sent to AA his 3rd ML season after a poor 2nd year (76 ERA+), hasn't been below 100 since 114 ERA+ overall
Cliff Lee: 72 games in minors before sticking for awhile then 10 more at age 28 (!) before becoming an ace.  Says a lot (negative) about Cleveland at that time and how they managed pitchers. 
CC Sabathia: 48 games in minors (age 17-19) - never below 100 for ERA+, but just a 107 his first 5 years before breaking out at 25, 139 since.

What does this tell us?  Real aces spend, maybe, 3 years in the minors even if signed as teenagers with the odd exception.  If the Expos hadn't collapsed (ie: had MLB take them over) Lee might have developed a lot earlier, or he could just be a slow learner. 

The NL obviously has Dickey who bounced around a lot - the big time exception, however the other recent ones were Kershaw (48 games), Halladay (87 before first call up, a 125 ERA+ season then disaster and 31 more games then super-ace 143 ERA+ since), Lincecum had just 13 games in the minors (razzen frazzen JP screwing up the killer trade via making it public), then Cy Young his first year.  Then comes Peavy (79 games ages 18-21) who had 2 mediocre to poor years to start (83-96) then a 171. 

Heck, even Ricky Romero who seemed a bust at one time had just 78 minor league games before making it (3 in 2009 were rehab games).

Seems clear to me that true talent, the top of the top or even close to the top, doesn't need 100+ games in the minors (or 4 years of 25 starts if you prefer) with rare exceptions (like Dickey).  Aaron is up to 49 games in the minors and should get 20-30 more games in this year.  If he really is a #1 talent then that could be enough for him to reach the majors even starting out as a 17 year old.  Control is his big issue - if he figures that out then he is ready and odds are if that is the case he'll be in the thick of things next spring with Hutchison, Drabek, McGuire, Stilson, Nolin, and whoever else emerges in 2013. 
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hypobole - Monday, February 11 2013 @ 12:31 AM EST (#268655) #
John, one thing you seem to be missing is the slow development path the Jays are taking with their teenager starters. 3 inning tandem starts were not used for any of these past aces.

Let's compare Sanchez to Matt Moore, another live young HS arm with command/control issues. They are almost exactly 3 years apart in age, and 3 years ago Moore was coming off a higher K/equally high BB season in Low A, but still similar to Sanchez. However, by this time in his 3 years as a pro, Moore had already pitched 197.2 innings including 123 IP that season. Sanchez in the same timeframe has pitched 169.2 innings, with only 90.1 IP this past year.

And even with the extra innings under Moore's belt he spent another 2 years and 300 IP in the minors before getting a September callup the second year. I think this will be much closer to Sanchez future than any aces from past years.
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John Northey - Monday, February 11 2013 @ 06:30 AM EST (#268656) #
Interesting point hypobole.  The Jays (and Rays) are going very slow with their prospects compared to the recent past.  Will it make a difference?  Hard to say at this stage.  From what I've read and seen in the numbers it seems the key factor is repeatability not innings to keeping a kid healthy.  IE: keeping their arm slot steady and pulling them as soon as it slips is more likely to keep them in one piece than keeping their innings down.  There is a relationship between them, but if you are just watching innings/number of pitches then you are looking at a side issue not the core issue.  With tools like pitch f/x there is no reason for this now - teams (at least in their home parks) can tell if a kid has slipped slightly and on exactly which pitch.  Using that you should be able to jump their endurance via simply watching and learning.  Also you should be able to speed development by watching their arm slot and seeing which slot is most effective for which pitch at which speed over time. 

Now, the Jays and Rays are both known for being forward thinkers right now, so one would hope both are looking into or using this.  Perhaps most kids really do need all that time and the rare ones who can avoid it are just the elite and you cannot always tell who will be. Plus taking more time in the minors might help avoid the early career struggles even Cy Young winners get (see Halladay's 2nd season).  Moore had just a 100 ERA+ his first season - great for a rookie, but if he is another ace then better should've been possible. 

Given these paces then Sanchez is probably a 120 inning guy this year, 150 next and ML the year after.  Hopefully the Jays watch close and see if that can be sped up slightly.

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Mike Green - Monday, February 11 2013 @ 09:01 AM EST (#268657) #
Yeah, except Nicolino threw 124 regular season innings plus a playoff start while Sanchez threw 90.  Even for a tandem starter, Sanchez didn't throw many innings.  As he put it, he is still growing into his man-strength...

I personally see his planned date of arrival as 2016 (with a cup of coffee in 2015), unless he is moved to the ace reliever role in which case it may be a year earlier.  All plans are, of course, tentative.

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John Northey - Monday, February 11 2013 @ 10:49 AM EST (#268658) #
Pitchers are a major crap shoot.  What works, what doesn't is very hard to say.  At one time it was push until they broke, others it has been baby them with pitch counts, now it is low pitch counts and inning limits per season. Yet we still get kids coming up - Felix Hernandez at 19 getting a dozen ML starts then at 20 throwing 191 innings being a good recent example - and not falling apart right away (7 straight years of 30+ starts).  For teams those first 6-7 years are what matter as after that you can lose them to free agency and if you are lucky you get a draft pick.
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Gerry - Monday, February 11 2013 @ 12:16 PM EST (#268659) #

I talked with some contacts in the Blue Jay organization last week as they got ready for spring training.

As I noted before the most important factor in the team assignments for 2013 is the players performance in 2012.  However for bubble players their spring training performance will matter.  I asked about several bubble type players.  With the signing date for drafted players in July last year, most first year players have a lot more experience than in previous years.  That could allow the Jays to push players a little bit faster than they did last year.  Front office comments are always vague at this time of the year, they don't want players to think they have a spot locked up and they don't want them to find out through the media, but here are my thoughts based on those conversations:

DJ Davis has a very good chance to break camp with Lansing.  He got some playing time at three levels last season and Vancouver is close to Lansing in standard of play.

John Stilson will likely pitch as a reliever.  I was told it will be AA's decision to make but Stilson did pitch in relief at the end of last season.

Anthony Alford will not be in camp.  The Jays expect to have him for as much time this year as they had him last year, namely from mid May to early July, about 6-7 weeks.

Daniel Norris will likely break camp on the Lansing squad.  The Jays have said that he pitched better than his numbers showed last season.  Unless he shows poor fastball command in camp, he will head north.

Mitch Nay should be ready for camp.  I was told he played in the last ten days of instructional league last October and hit a couple of home runs.

Same with Matt Smoral.  Smoral pitched three times in instructs.  He was sitting low 90's with the FB which impressed the FO as he had barely pitched in 2012 before those starts.

The Jays have not formalised a role for Griffin Murphy yet.  He will likely start the season in Lansing.  He could be a tandem starter if the Jays have an uneven number of young starters, if not he will be a long reliever, pitching 2-3 innings at a time out of the bullpen.

AJ Jimenez is ready to go.  Reportedly he is already in Dunedin catching the major league guys who are there already.

Jacob Anderson's short-term future is uncertain.  The Jays would like him to make the Lansing team as he already lived through extended spring last year.  But they don't want him to be in A ball and fail.  They will see if they think he can handle Lansing and if he can he could make the team.

Alberto Tirado is another pitcher whose fate is unknown.  He pitched well when he was promoted last season and continued to pitch well in instructs.  If he shows some improvement since last year he could also be in Lansing.

Justin Jackson is an unknown quantity as a pitcher.  Like most converted position players he will begin as a reliever and in extended spring training.

 

That's all I have for now.....it is an uncertain time of year for minor league players.  Coaches may know who ten to fifteen players on their team will be, but those last few jobs are up for grabs.

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Ryan Day - Monday, February 11 2013 @ 12:36 PM EST (#268660) #
I think you've got to drop Alford off any top prospect lists until he shows some commitment to baseball. Regardless of his raw talent, he's not going anywhere only playing baseball for 2 months a year.
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Ryan Day - Monday, February 11 2013 @ 01:59 PM EST (#268661) #
Interesting story in the Sun about Brett Cecil doing the training program Steve Delabar used to rehab and improve his velocity.

We've been through a few seasons of "will Cecil's velocity come back?", so I'll believe it when I see it. Still, Delabar's enough of a miraculous comeback story to give me some optimism.
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whiterasta80 - Monday, February 11 2013 @ 03:05 PM EST (#268662) #
If Cecil's velocity comes back it will be interesting to see how things play out. The loss of his velocity has certainly taught him to be more of a pitcher than a thrower so if he gained some velocity back with control we might have something.

Of course if Josh Phelps learned to make contact we might have been dealing with the second coming of Lou Gehrig...
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MatO - Monday, February 11 2013 @ 03:34 PM EST (#268663) #

Cecil should get an uptick on velocity just by pitching out of the bullpen.  I would expect an uptick on the uptick or is this just a "spring training story" before Spring Training even starts?

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John Northey - Monday, February 11 2013 @ 04:16 PM EST (#268664) #
Interesting note: the Rays have been hit for signing international free agents beyond the level you are supposed to - $3.7 mil spent vs cap of $2.9, means they get a 100% tax on the overage ($800k) and cannot sign any international free agents to a deal worth more than $250k this year. 

The penalty doesn't seem too harsh, basically takes them out of it for any big guys this year but that extra $800k last year could've added a top player for them.  Would that be a good strategy given this precedent...go overboard one year then take a year off, then overboard, then year off, etc.  What if you pushed it further and signed them up to $5 or $10 million?  You'd probably grab every high end talent in the IFA market for a year which could be equal to a few top 15 draft picks.  You'd pay $3-7 mil in penalties and sit out the next year's big guns but properly done you might get more bang for your buck.  Top quality scouting of IFA would help determine which years to go for it as well - don't bother in a weak year but in a strong one go nuts. Who knows? Maybe you'd get a George Bell and Tony Fernandez level talent in one year.  Plus mix in where the team is in the success cycle and this might be a good year to blow the wad on IFA who won't be here for 5 years - just in time for the next cycle to begin.

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hypobole - Monday, February 18 2013 @ 06:09 PM EST (#268805) #
FG just did a prospect showdown between Sanchez and Syndergaard. Some interesting analysis on why Sanchez has the command/control issues.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/sanchez-versus-syndergaard-prospect-showdown/

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John Northey - Tuesday, February 19 2013 @ 02:56 PM EST (#268812) #
The Top 100 from Baseball America is out...
Jays:
65. Aaron Sanchez, rhp, TOR
98. Marcus Stroman, rhp, TOR

Ex-Jays:
23. Travis d'Arnaud, c, NYM
54. Noah Syndergaard, rhp, NYM
64. Jake Marisnick, of, MIA
86. Justin Nicolino, lhp, MIA
87. James Paxton, lhp, SEA (OK, not an ex-Jay technically)

So down to 2 top 100's from 6 before the trading began.
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sam - Tuesday, February 19 2013 @ 03:29 PM EST (#268815) #
Do not discount Paul Quantrill's recent hiring as a consultant to his son being a potential top-5 round draft pick this upcoming June.  Cal Quantrill is a nice looking pitching prospect with a Stanford scholarship.  He does not have flashy stuff, but much like Ryan Kellogg is a solid looking pitching prospect that all organizations like to have.  He will not come cheap and is not the type of prospect that a top 3 round pick should be used on.  Hence my cynicism as to his father's hiring--to not take too much away from the elder Quantrill as an evaluator and instructor.

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TamRa - Wednesday, February 20 2013 @ 04:37 AM EST (#268821) #
I'm mildly disappointed Osuna didn't make the BA list.
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hypobole - Wednesday, February 27 2013 @ 01:18 AM EST (#268924) #
Baseball Prospectus released their Top 101 and 2 Jays made the list - Aaron Sanchez at #32 and Sean Nolin at #97.

Amazing the BP guys think Nolin is a Top 100 prospect, yet BA has 16 Jays prospects ahead of him AFTER all the trades.

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bpoz - Wednesday, February 27 2013 @ 04:04 PM EST (#268946) #
These prospect lists are fun & interesting. I think if I made a list I would put the superstar prospects like Bryce Harper & M Trout at the top and say what everyone else is saying about them.
The lower ones like #40 & #85 for example I would try for some safer picks, especially the very low numbers. That is just in case someone remembered and pointed out to me that my list of 3 years ago was quite bad and it would have been worse without some of the successes in the lower numbers.

For example when 2010 ended, a lot of experts would consider K Drabek & J Hellickson for their lists. At what number I cannot say but we now know that Hellickson makes the list look better than Drabek. If Drabek was completely off the list, it really would not matter.
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John Northey - Wednesday, February 27 2013 @ 04:17 PM EST (#268948) #
In truth there should be two lists - one for 'top potential' and one for 'most likely to be 1/2 decent'.  Some guys have a great shot at being decent ML players but might flop, others have a reasonable shot at being a superstar but also a big shot at being a flop.

Right now I think Sanchez is one of those 'star or flop' while someone like McGuire (when drafted) was a 'decent shot at being decent'.  But no guarantees in baseball and JPR learned that the 'safe bets' aren't always that.  AA seems more on the risk side, going for higher potential and hoping to have enough of them that you get enough stars to compensate for a higher flop factor.

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hypobole - Wednesday, February 27 2013 @ 06:48 PM EST (#268954) #
And as we're seeing, you don't even have to wait for them to make it in the majors or flop. Prospects can be used as trade market currency.
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John Northey - Wednesday, February 27 2013 @ 07:12 PM EST (#268956) #
They are nice trade currency...as long as you do it pre-flop :)

For example, from 2001 to 2010 here are the #1 BA Blue Jays prospects...
Vernon Wells, Josh Phelps, Dustin McGowan, Alex Rios, Brandon League, Dustin McGowan (again), Adam Lind, Travis Snider (twice), Zach Stewart.

Of those 10 which would you want to have had for the first 6 full ML seasons?  Wells first 6 were worth bWAR 19.9 - very good.  Phelps was 2.5 lifetime.  McGowan 0.8.  Rios 18.2 (very good).  League 2.6 lifetime (1 year as a full-time closer).  Lind, Snider & Stewart I don't think we need to dwell on as I'd say one good year total between the 3 of them.

So 8 players, two were the Jays #1 prospect twice.  Just 2 were worth more than 3 WAR in their careers, let alone in the critical first 6 seasons.  What could the Jays have gotten for the 6 who could've easily been replaced by many low end free agents?  Probably some really talented established ML players given this past winter.  Snider was hyped by everyone futher than d'Arnaud was.  McGowan, League, Stewart all looked like future top of the rotation starters.  Phelps was the Baseball Prospectus cover boy.  Yet the two who had real value (Rios & Wells) we were thankful to see gone without the Jays being stuck with their contracts.

Just something to keep in mind when going through prospect lists.  Often for top prospects the value pre-reaching will be higher than the post-reality value.

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