Hell bent or heaven sent, listen to the propaganda, listen to the latest slander.
I was perusing http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/04/jays-already-considering-reyes-replacements.html looking at possible SS targets A.A. might go after, depending on who's available. I just don't know enough about what A.A. is looking for in an acqusition. I just hope that person is also an effective 2B. All these have issues, but might be available: Mike Aviles (CLE); Yuniesky Betancourt (MIL); Jonathan Herrera (COL); Ramiro Pena (ATL); and maybe, Dee Gordon (LAD). What could A.A. trade?
Relievers: Edgar Gonzales pitched well enough in his brief appearance (2G, 3.1 IP) to warrant a recall if there's an opening. Brett Cecil, Aaron Loup, Steve Delabar, Sergio Santos and Casey Janssen would be in more or less high demand. Esmil Rogers and Darren Oliver - not so much.
Outfielders: Rajai Davis, Casper Wells, Anthony Gose, Moises Sierra may or may not be in demand.
Prospects: I can't imagine who A.A. would trade this early in the season.
Ideally a SS acquistion would be for a Starting SS who could, when Reyes returns, be our Starting 2B (being an upgrade at the position).
Lawrie is playing 2B today in his rehab game. Hmmm.
Dee Gordon would have to be your foremost target of those, wouldn't he? Young with upside, good defensively, could play 2B if needed.
Not sure what you'd have to give up to get him, though. Probably too much.
Not sure what you'd have to give up to get him, though. Probably too much.
So today's lineup has Bautista at 3B again, Bonifacio at CF (while Rasmus rests a day), Izturis at 2B and Kawasaki at SS. And, as noted, Lawrie is playing 2B for Dunedin.
One possible conclusion: that whole experimental "Bonifacio in the infield" thing might finally be over. Personally I like Bonifacio as a DH and back-up OF. He's someone else who might be more valuable than Lind at the DH spot.
One possible conclusion: that whole experimental "Bonifacio in the infield" thing might finally be over. Personally I like Bonifacio as a DH and back-up OF. He's someone else who might be more valuable than Lind at the DH spot.
I'm not sure what I prefer - that Gibbons sat Rasmus because he's 0/11 vs. Santana, or because he's sore from slamming into the wall. Both suck.
Dee Gordon would have to be your foremost target of those, wouldn't he?
Young with upside, good defensively, could play 2B if needed.
He's actually terrible defensively.
He's actually terrible defensively.
Lawrie is playing 2B today in his rehab game. Hmmm.
Hmmm indeed. The only people who get injured more regularly than second baseman are catchers and pitchers. Just the place for Brett Lawrie. I want to avert my eyes.
Hmmm indeed. The only people who get injured more regularly than second baseman are catchers and pitchers. Just the place for Brett Lawrie. I want to avert my eyes.
So the intrigue continues: now Anthopoulos has confirmed that there is a "scenario" in which Lawrie could play 2B, with Bautista at 3B and Kawasaki or Izturis at SS. This is because the Jays have greater depth at OF than the IF, he said. Hmmmm.
Meanwhile, why is Bonifacio at CF with Cabrera at LF? I thought we were told that Cabrera was the better CF on days when Rasmus was not there.
Meanwhile, why is Bonifacio at CF with Cabrera at LF? I thought we were told that Cabrera was the better CF on days when Rasmus was not there.
The only people who get injured more regularly than second baseman are catchers and pitchers.
I was thinking the same thing. You've got somebody who seems hellbent on injuring himself from the moment he gets out of bed in the morning and you want move him to second base? Aye yi yi.
He's a good defensive third baseman and that's a particularly weak position in the majors right now. Leave him be. Why mess with something that works?
I was thinking the same thing. You've got somebody who seems hellbent on injuring himself from the moment he gets out of bed in the morning and you want move him to second base? Aye yi yi.
He's a good defensive third baseman and that's a particularly weak position in the majors right now. Leave him be. Why mess with something that works?
Weird, I had the exact opposite impression, but I'm going to assume yours is backed up by numbers and therefore is correct. :)
And already has two chances at 2B, turned a DP (5-4-3) and gloved a liner of the middle.
He's a good defensive third baseman and that's a particularly weak
position in the majors right now. Leave him be. Why mess with something
that works?
Fewer fixed obstructions to plow into?
Fewer fixed obstructions to plow into?
Brett is 2 for 2, with the only 2 hits for the D-Jays.
Yeah, the stats are definitely not pretty. Here's a quote from a Dodger blog: If he had continued playing defense as poorly as he did in 2013 [sic], for
the entire season, he would have cost the Dodgers nearly 10 more runs
(-26) than the worst qualified player in the game (Curtis Granderson
-17.6). If you are hoping he will be the Dodgers’ shortstop one day,
knock it off. It’s depressing, and you deserve to dream better dreams
than that.
I'm sure there are more moving parts than we know here...
1) Lawrie might have asked if he could be moved to 2B - his defensive stats at third were crazy and he effectively played 2B often with the crazy shifts last year
2) Bautista might actually like playing third base
3) Izturis and Bonifacio are both nightmares at 2B - stats don't back it up, but maybe that is what it seems to be. Izturis lifetime 8.0 UZR/150, Bonifacio -9.5 (OK, he is a mess at 2B)
4) Gose might be ready based on reports from AAA - he is hitting well.
I suspect the Jays don't feel comfortable playing Izturis everyday at 2B, see no realistic options in house with Bonifacio's defense being poor, thus Lawrie can be moved. A similar move happened years ago with Jeff Kent - came up at 2B, moved to 3B for the Jays, then moved back to 2B for everyone else and now might be going to the HOF.
So, the new 'ideal' could be Lawrie at 2B, Bautista at 3B (defense poor but offense woohoo), Gose in RF or CF with Rasmus in CF or RF with Bonifacio the #1 backup outfielder making Davis and Wells very much on the bubble. Lind also might be getting close to the point where the Jays write off his salary with his 120/207/200 line.
So high on the 'cut' list now would be Davis and Lind. Kawasaki showed a lot yesterday and might take over the 2nd backup infield role with Izturis being the #1backup. Bonifacio takes over as the #1 outfield backup and has bonus value being able to cover the infield in emergencies. Wells could be the 5th outfielder while Davis, nice guy or not, gets cut or traded away once Gose comes up to play (maybe held off a month so Bonifacio can show if he can play everyday with Davis & Wells mixed in). If Lind is dumped then Bonifacio can rotate around the field and DH while whoever he covers goes into the DH role that day. DeRosa has the 25th slot on the roster as he quietly has played fairly well. Kawasaki goes back to AAA once Reyes returns.
Lots of moving parts, with the potential of a fantastic defensive outfield and fantastic offensive infield. 2013 has been interesting even if the team is 1 game under 500.
1) Lawrie might have asked if he could be moved to 2B - his defensive stats at third were crazy and he effectively played 2B often with the crazy shifts last year
2) Bautista might actually like playing third base
3) Izturis and Bonifacio are both nightmares at 2B - stats don't back it up, but maybe that is what it seems to be. Izturis lifetime 8.0 UZR/150, Bonifacio -9.5 (OK, he is a mess at 2B)
4) Gose might be ready based on reports from AAA - he is hitting well.
I suspect the Jays don't feel comfortable playing Izturis everyday at 2B, see no realistic options in house with Bonifacio's defense being poor, thus Lawrie can be moved. A similar move happened years ago with Jeff Kent - came up at 2B, moved to 3B for the Jays, then moved back to 2B for everyone else and now might be going to the HOF.
So, the new 'ideal' could be Lawrie at 2B, Bautista at 3B (defense poor but offense woohoo), Gose in RF or CF with Rasmus in CF or RF with Bonifacio the #1 backup outfielder making Davis and Wells very much on the bubble. Lind also might be getting close to the point where the Jays write off his salary with his 120/207/200 line.
So high on the 'cut' list now would be Davis and Lind. Kawasaki showed a lot yesterday and might take over the 2nd backup infield role with Izturis being the #1backup. Bonifacio takes over as the #1 outfield backup and has bonus value being able to cover the infield in emergencies. Wells could be the 5th outfielder while Davis, nice guy or not, gets cut or traded away once Gose comes up to play (maybe held off a month so Bonifacio can show if he can play everyday with Davis & Wells mixed in). If Lind is dumped then Bonifacio can rotate around the field and DH while whoever he covers goes into the DH role that day. DeRosa has the 25th slot on the roster as he quietly has played fairly well. Kawasaki goes back to AAA once Reyes returns.
Lots of moving parts, with the potential of a fantastic defensive outfield and fantastic offensive infield. 2013 has been interesting even if the team is 1 game under 500.
With runners on 2nd and 3rd and only 1 out, getting only one run is diappointing - still, they're leading.
I think it's more the fact that they don't think Bonifacio can play in the IF and they don't want Izturis and Kawasaki both in the lineup. Izturis may play SS the majority of the games until Reyes gets back and then when Reyes does get back Lawrie goes back to 3B, Jose goes back to RF, Izturis back to 2B, and Reyes obviously back to SS. If Gose does come up and is successful then Jose, Edwin, Gose, Colby, and Melky would play everyday but each would take turns DHing.
Is Gameday having problems or is it possble Morrow's hurt? With that sucky 88-89 fastball, he's not going to beat many bats.
I know Rasmus hasn't had much success against Santana (0-11, one walk), but watching Davis hit against RHP can be painful. In his first PA, he chased a breaking pitch way outside the strike zone (low and away) for strike three.
AA said today that a Gose recall is not part of the plan for now. He said they hadn't talked about bringing Gose up and that he will stay in Buffalo for at least a month or two.
With a bunt single, a walk and a stolen base today, not to mention an RBI yesterday, Kawasaki looks like becoming a fan favorite. Here's some background about him:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/with-reyes-out-up-to-three-months-jays-recall-kawasaki/article11183745/
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/with-reyes-out-up-to-three-months-jays-recall-kawasaki/article11183745/
The KC announcers have described Kawasaki in glowing terms.
Lawrie at 2B? No thanks. It's been tried and it didn't work. And yes, the injury risk is much higher.
Lawrie at 2B? No thanks. It's been tried and it didn't work. And yes, the injury risk is much higher.
Kawasaki has been a fun player. Good choice to have around as a backup since he only has one ML season he would be here for 5-6 years before free agency would hit (dont think he was down long enough to have the 6th year added). Would be another John McDonald but cheaper and younger.
since he only has one ML season he would be here for 5-6 years before free agency would hit
You're bound and determined to finish off Dewey with an ulcer, aren't you? You're describing a 32-year old washout from the Japanese league in his second (and very possibly last) major league season.
Bautista at 3rd and Lawrie at 2nd with Encarnacion at 1st and Lind DHing would be a terrible adaptation to the current situation. My question of earlier today- "does the club have the chutzpah to eat Lind's contract?" would be answered clearly in the negative. Futzing around with the defence in order to keep Lind in the lineup is the kind of move that drives me nuts.
Bonifacio's noodle arm in RF is another reason to keep Buatista there. I think if Bautista was in RF he'd have cut Getz down at the plate, or at least had a real shot at it.
I think the turning point in today's game was Cain's two-strike, two-out single off Morrow in the bottom of the 6th. EE had just homered to give the Jays a 2-1 lead. Morrow was pitching well, but just couldn't finish off the hitter to give the Jays a shut-down inning.
Agree with 92-93. Bonifacio has now been tried at a number of defensive positions. Speed is electric, but his bat hasn't been so hot. My mind could change, but at this point, I don't even see him as a substitute for Lind, and the damage he's done in the field far outweighs any positives. Right now, he's the guy that has me wondering if he has a place on this team.
To review: RF has been shaky. 2B has been very shaky, and that's normal (vid. UZR). Wouldn't even think about SS. CF is super small sample size, but can't be an improvement on Rasmus. Remains to be seen if it's an improvement on Davis. If I have to rest Cabrera in LF, I'm definitely playing Davis, not Bonifacio. And now Casper Wells enters the mix. With Gose showing potential in AAA.
I just don't see the fit. No point citing infield versatility if you're afraid to play him in the infield, and too many players ahead of him in the outfield. Can't afford a bench spot for a pinch runner.
And is it my imagination, or is Davis getting better defensively? He seems to be, while offering at least equal speed. Bonifacio not shining with the bat, but to be fair, I'd be interested in some longer-term comparisons before judging.
Right now, though, my conclusion is that Bonifacio is the guy playing himself off of this team. Lind is wobbly, but still behind Bonifacio.
To review: RF has been shaky. 2B has been very shaky, and that's normal (vid. UZR). Wouldn't even think about SS. CF is super small sample size, but can't be an improvement on Rasmus. Remains to be seen if it's an improvement on Davis. If I have to rest Cabrera in LF, I'm definitely playing Davis, not Bonifacio. And now Casper Wells enters the mix. With Gose showing potential in AAA.
I just don't see the fit. No point citing infield versatility if you're afraid to play him in the infield, and too many players ahead of him in the outfield. Can't afford a bench spot for a pinch runner.
And is it my imagination, or is Davis getting better defensively? He seems to be, while offering at least equal speed. Bonifacio not shining with the bat, but to be fair, I'd be interested in some longer-term comparisons before judging.
Right now, though, my conclusion is that Bonifacio is the guy playing himself off of this team. Lind is wobbly, but still behind Bonifacio.
I don't know. Bonifacio seemed to me to be all right out there in RF. Rajai Davis' arm makes Bonifacio's look like Jesse Barfield's.
It'll be better for Bautista's long-term health to move him to first base, with Encarnacion taking over the DH role. The sooner this happens, the better. If it means that Gose has to come up with Rasmus moving to right-field, that works for me. In the interval, I think that a Bonifacio/Wells platoon would work out just fine.
It'll be better for Bautista's long-term health to move him to first base, with Encarnacion taking over the DH role. The sooner this happens, the better. If it means that Gose has to come up with Rasmus moving to right-field, that works for me. In the interval, I think that a Bonifacio/Wells platoon would work out just fine.
Not sure why we would want to move a number of players to their second best position. Kawasaki is a two time gold glover in Japan and hasn't made an error in the MLB (granted limited playing time). Lawrie is a potential gold glover at third. Bautista is better in RF than third and his arm has value. Izturis has been an ok second baseman and can hold the fort...if they stop dicking around with him. Still need a leadoff hitter. No problem. DFA Lind since he's done SFA, and DH Bonifacio. Suspect Boni hits and runs a lot better when he is not worrying about playing a new position everyday (each one of which he is below average in). That's a pretty solid defensive line up.
Before Bautista and the pitchers went down last year, the Jays had a top 3 offence and were within pecking distance of the AL East lead. How would today's team with the above lineup compare? Clearly the pitching should be better than last year. The defense should be on par (little stronger in the outfield, a little weaker in the infield). And the offence? In terms of newbies this year, Cabrera is a big step up, Boni is equal to or better than Lind and probably better than any of last year's leadoff hitters, Izturis is likely a wash with the Johnson of last year, and Kawasaki is a downgrade. Sounds like a wash.
Bottom line, the offence and defence should be equal to last year's and the pitching should be much better. Painful as Reyes injury is (especially for him!), this team is good enough to at least stay close. But this player shuffling has got to stop. And the slow starters need to respond.
Before Bautista and the pitchers went down last year, the Jays had a top 3 offence and were within pecking distance of the AL East lead. How would today's team with the above lineup compare? Clearly the pitching should be better than last year. The defense should be on par (little stronger in the outfield, a little weaker in the infield). And the offence? In terms of newbies this year, Cabrera is a big step up, Boni is equal to or better than Lind and probably better than any of last year's leadoff hitters, Izturis is likely a wash with the Johnson of last year, and Kawasaki is a downgrade. Sounds like a wash.
Bottom line, the offence and defence should be equal to last year's and the pitching should be much better. Painful as Reyes injury is (especially for him!), this team is good enough to at least stay close. But this player shuffling has got to stop. And the slow starters need to respond.
Well, a second week is in, 3-3 to follow a worrying 2-4.
It looks like Dickey has righted the ship and is doing his job. Morrow has finally pitched better but is showing a problem - 88-89 fastball. Will it get better? Problems if Morrow's facing a loss in velocity. Buehrle has pitched fairly well. Relief 's ARA (allowed runs) is very high, and defense is not quite as good as it should be. Happ is a # 5 Starter, and Start #2 will occur much more often than Start #1. I don't know enough about Johnson other than to say - ouch.
Is Oliver done, or is this a blip, or is he now in between? Relievers have made 42 appearances for this Team in just 12 Games. I think the Relief is getting overworked, but until the offense figures it out it won't get much better.
and DH Bonifacio
I have no particular love for Lind but choosing to instead DH a guy with a career OPS+ of 81 leaves me cold.
They need a leadoff hitter with speed. He has a career .326 OBP which isn't great, but the base stealing potential is huge and much more disruptive than an occassional Lind double.
In my opinion the problem with a Bonifacio/Wells platoon is that Bonifacio is better from the right side as well. He has a career .658 OPS as a lefthanded batter vs RHP. In fact, Wells even has a .675 OPS vs righties. That's not much of a platoon as they're both better suited facing LHP. A Gose/Bonifacio, Gose/Wells or Gose/Davis platoon makes a lot more sense in my opinion. Davis, Wells, Bonifacio and Sierra all hit lefties much better than righties, but Gose is the opposite.
Put me in the category of people who doesn't want the "la grande dérangement" in the infield. Haven't we learned this lesson already? (Not talking about the Acadians now but that lesson should also be obvious.) I certainly attribute much of Lind's failure (and back injury) to the move to first base. Wasn't Encarnacion a tonne better once he was put in his proper defensive position at first? Wasn't Lawrie able to excel at third (a position he is most suited for) once he got to play there every day? Here's my take: leave Izturius and Boni in a platoon at 2nd with Boni being super sub everywhere else. Let them get into a rhythm. Leave Lawrie the best defensive 3rd baseman in the league at third (duh.) And leave friggen Bautista in the outfield with his gun arm and adequate fielding. Kawasaki or whoever else we trade for can play short till the all star break. This team is going to go into a deep hitting slump if everyone's focused on changing positions. This, to me, seems to be the kind of mistake a young GM makes and Alex, pls don't act your age here.
Great discussion here of who might be sent out when Lawrie returns (though it's a bit disconcerting how many plausible candidates there are).
fyi: I heard Shulman say tonight that Vernon Wells has started taking ground balls at 3B.
fyi: I heard Shulman say tonight that Vernon Wells has started taking ground balls at 3B.
It is interesting to debate who stays and who goes. If you assume a 7 man pen (not going down to 6 or up to 8) then when Lawrie comes back...
1) Kawasaki - just came up, poor bat, great defense - I think he is safe for now.
2) DeRosa - fewest PA going into today outside of Kawasaki and Blanco - hitting well (211/320/474) and useful backup so I don't see him going
3) Wells - just acquired, has a 109 lifetime OPS+ in 3 seasons, hit well in AA/AAA (908/838 OPS respectively). His defense at all 3 positions looks good via UZR as he is 10+ UZR/150 at all 3
4) Davis - like Wells a RH outfielder but poor defensively (negative UZR in LF/CF does well in RF) but has blazing speed. 86 lifetime OPS+
5) Bonifacio - hitting poorly (66 OPS+), fielding very poorly, has yet to steal a base (his big claim to fame)
6) Lind - OPS+ of 12 coming into today. Need more be said?
I think the Jays still want to hold onto Lind (for whatever reason), and Bonifacio is a favorite. Kawasaki and DeRosa are solid backups so I think they are safe, especially with Kawasaki being the only guy who I feel safe with at short defensively. So the question becomes which right handed hitting outfielder to keep - Davis or Wells. Davis is 32 and speed is his game. Wells is 28 and power/defense is his game. Right now I'd lean towards Wells as defense is important and we have speed up the wazoo off the bench in Bonifacio as is. Bonny has taken Davis' slot as speed with poor defense and an 80's OPS+ (81 for Bonifacio, 86 for Davis but Bonifacio is 28 vs 32 for Davis and when speed is your game age is a very, very big factor).
So my bet is on Davis, with a shot at the Jays trying to get Wells to AAA (does he have options?).
1) Kawasaki - just came up, poor bat, great defense - I think he is safe for now.
2) DeRosa - fewest PA going into today outside of Kawasaki and Blanco - hitting well (211/320/474) and useful backup so I don't see him going
3) Wells - just acquired, has a 109 lifetime OPS+ in 3 seasons, hit well in AA/AAA (908/838 OPS respectively). His defense at all 3 positions looks good via UZR as he is 10+ UZR/150 at all 3
4) Davis - like Wells a RH outfielder but poor defensively (negative UZR in LF/CF does well in RF) but has blazing speed. 86 lifetime OPS+
5) Bonifacio - hitting poorly (66 OPS+), fielding very poorly, has yet to steal a base (his big claim to fame)
6) Lind - OPS+ of 12 coming into today. Need more be said?
I think the Jays still want to hold onto Lind (for whatever reason), and Bonifacio is a favorite. Kawasaki and DeRosa are solid backups so I think they are safe, especially with Kawasaki being the only guy who I feel safe with at short defensively. So the question becomes which right handed hitting outfielder to keep - Davis or Wells. Davis is 32 and speed is his game. Wells is 28 and power/defense is his game. Right now I'd lean towards Wells as defense is important and we have speed up the wazoo off the bench in Bonifacio as is. Bonny has taken Davis' slot as speed with poor defense and an 80's OPS+ (81 for Bonifacio, 86 for Davis but Bonifacio is 28 vs 32 for Davis and when speed is your game age is a very, very big factor).
So my bet is on Davis, with a shot at the Jays trying to get Wells to AAA (does he have options?).
Casper Wells was http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/04/blue-jays-claim-casper-wells.html a waiver claim. He seems to be an adequate 4th outfielder, without Davis' speed. A.A. must make a decision on Rajai Davis this year as he's a free agent at season's end. Kawasaki is an effective SS, which is a suprise. Due to the type of contract he's signed to, he might have option(s). Bonifacio's track record says he's better than he's showing. In as much as A.A. specifically wanted him in the Miami trade, he's going nowhere. DeRosa's got more pop than expected, range is reduced, and he's an A.A. favorite. As for Adam Lind - no trade value. After checking this out: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/toronto-blue-jays/ I don't think A.A. can explain throwing away $7.5 MM (pro-rated portion).
In the 'Pen, Aaron Loup has options so a six-man 'Pen is possible. Esmil Rogers and Darren Oliver seem to have issues. Whether they continue could have bearing on A.A.'s decisions. When Lawrie returns, a decision must be made (#1). When A.A. acquires his SS piece, another decision must be made (#2). And when Reyes returns, another decision must be made (#3). Since it will be around early- to mid-July, additional decisions will come A.A's way (#4+).
I can't imagine who goes down, only A.A. has any idea.
Delabar had 2 days of rest after throwing 38 and 16 pitches back to back when he came in to today's game. He got 4 outs on 21 pitches. Would it have been too much to bring him back out into a 3rd inning of work? I hope so, otherwise I would've liked to see Gibby do what he did with Loup and ride the effective hand.
I like what we've seen from Kawasaki thus far - at the very least he's much more entertaining to watch than Vanilla McCoy. I particularly love how he crouches down into a catcher's position when he takes the sign from the 3B coach. He did miss a fairly routine GB today but he's taken some very good ABs and that bunt single was technically beautiful. Maybe he could teach Bonifacio & Izturis how to lay em down.
I like what we've seen from Kawasaki thus far - at the very least he's much more entertaining to watch than Vanilla McCoy. I particularly love how he crouches down into a catcher's position when he takes the sign from the 3B coach. He did miss a fairly routine GB today but he's taken some very good ABs and that bunt single was technically beautiful. Maybe he could teach Bonifacio & Izturis how to lay em down.
Weird, I had the exact opposite impression
I don't exactly know how you'd crunch the numbers, but it's not just guys like Joe Morgan and Rod Carew. The history of second basemen, like that of pitchers, is littered with all these careers that never really happened because they got hurt.
The obvious reason second basemen get hurt is because it's one of two positions on the diamond where other players are at liberty to run into you = where they're actually expected to make contact if they can. And the second basemen a) often can't see it coming, and b) is off balance in mid-pivot when it happens. I think a secondary reason is because second basemen are made, not born. (Except Mazeroski, of course.) Great prospects are seldom second basemen. Second basemen are usually players who were moved to second base from some other position at some point in their minor league days - it turned out that their arm (Robbie Alomar!) or their range (Aaron Hill!) wasn't good enough for shortstop or their bat wasn't good enough for third base (Orlando Hudson!) It's a difficult and dangerous position that's usually being played by someone who has spent much of their baseball life playing somewhere else.
Kawasaki - just came up, poor bat
He didn't hit a lick last year, but I think Kawasaki ought to hit a little bit - better than John MacDonald, anyway. His career numbers in the Japanese Pacific League are .296/.347/.381 and I think most Japanese hitters in the majors can come within striking distance of their Japanese BAVG and OBP numbers. It's their power that drops most drastically. Kawasaski, of course, has no power anyway. That could be a problem if opposing outfielders positioned themselves 90 feet behind the infielders, but I doubt even Maddon would do that... And if Kawasaki can provide quality defense at short and hit ...oh, .265/.310/.320 - and I don't know why he couldn't - I'd take it.
I don't exactly know how you'd crunch the numbers, but it's not just guys like Joe Morgan and Rod Carew. The history of second basemen, like that of pitchers, is littered with all these careers that never really happened because they got hurt.
The obvious reason second basemen get hurt is because it's one of two positions on the diamond where other players are at liberty to run into you = where they're actually expected to make contact if they can. And the second basemen a) often can't see it coming, and b) is off balance in mid-pivot when it happens. I think a secondary reason is because second basemen are made, not born. (Except Mazeroski, of course.) Great prospects are seldom second basemen. Second basemen are usually players who were moved to second base from some other position at some point in their minor league days - it turned out that their arm (Robbie Alomar!) or their range (Aaron Hill!) wasn't good enough for shortstop or their bat wasn't good enough for third base (Orlando Hudson!) It's a difficult and dangerous position that's usually being played by someone who has spent much of their baseball life playing somewhere else.
Kawasaki - just came up, poor bat
He didn't hit a lick last year, but I think Kawasaki ought to hit a little bit - better than John MacDonald, anyway. His career numbers in the Japanese Pacific League are .296/.347/.381 and I think most Japanese hitters in the majors can come within striking distance of their Japanese BAVG and OBP numbers. It's their power that drops most drastically. Kawasaski, of course, has no power anyway. That could be a problem if opposing outfielders positioned themselves 90 feet behind the infielders, but I doubt even Maddon would do that... And if Kawasaki can provide quality defense at short and hit ...oh, .265/.310/.320 - and I don't know why he couldn't - I'd take it.
Lots of interesting choices coming up for AA that is for sure. I think Kawasaki is up until Reyes is back, then Izturis becomes the backup SS for day-to-day stuff. The outfield though is very overcrowded. We have Cabrera/Rasmus and Davis/Wells/Bonifacio not to mention Bautista. If I was Davis I'd be worried as Wells and Bonifacio both cross over his skill set - be it RH outfieder or speed. Boni has the advantage of being a switch hitter who can sorta play the infield too. I'd be surprised if Davis lasts the year, and at this point I think he is the most likely to be let go even though it means eating the most cash. If a trade can be made (even for a D prospect) then AA will do it I suspect.
Btw, Halladay is now a 200 game winner after a solid 8 inning 1 run game. Lets hope he is back - he is fun to cheer on even if he isn't a Jay anymore.
Lets hope he is back
His next start will be a fairer test. The lineup fielded by the Marlins might have a difficult time competing in AAA.
His next start will be a fairer test. The lineup fielded by the Marlins might have a difficult time competing in AAA.
That is a good point Chuck. Marlins are now 2-10, tied with the Padres for worst in MLB. They are scoring 1.67 runs per game. Yes, that is right, the Marlins currently are making all of MLB pitch better than the best pitchers in history - the lowest lifetime ERA ever is 1.82 by Ed Walsh, or 0.15 more runs per game than the Marlins are scoring. 78 times a pitcher has had a lower ERA than what the Marlins are scoring but only 6 times since integration occurred - Maddux twice, Gooden '85, Gibson '68,Tiant '68, Dean Chance '64. That's it.
Count me in as another who isn't very thrilled to have Lawrie be the pivot man on double plays. Seems like an injury waiting to happen. Bautista has already been on record as saying he prefers RF or 3B, hopefully that doesn't affect his hitting also.
Buehrle faces the White Sox for the first time in his career today. Surprisingly only one current Sock has ever faced him - Alex Rios, with a .130/.167/.261 line in 23 at bats.
Toronto's inability to develop Justin Jackson or Kevin Ahrens from the 2007 draft is really hurting this team with this injury to Reyes. It would have been nice to have Justin Jackson play SS with average or better defense while maintaining a 250 average with an OPS of .700. I think the majority of us would take that.
Now Toronto must exhaust all trade avenues to make up for the loss.
Not looking forward to trading more of our farm system for 2-3 months rental of a replacement player who will probably only grade out to .5-1 win improvement over Izturis/Kawazaki.
I think the fascinating question will come later this summer. Does AA truly go "all in," trading the likes of Sanchez and Osuna for some final pieces for 2013-15 (i.e., upgrades at DH/1B, 2B, outfield, maybe another quality starting pitcher)? As much as I like those prospects, I think AA almost has to go big at this point. In for a dime, in for a dollar.
Please please not this. The team has already gone old enough and given enough to get what they have. If they go all in and fail, what are they going to have next year for all the prospects they gave? Dickey, Reyes and a whole bunch of nothing. (well they will have some contract obligations for sure) I know flags fly forever and all, but gambling everything on getting to a single postseason to try and win it is a pretty stupid plan and I hope AA doesn't fall for that.
I think it all depends on the development of the other pitchers. If Stroman and Smoral pitch really well, one of Osuna or Sanchez will be moved. I hope not, but that's the feeling I get. And it would be for a young, controlable bat; sort of like the trade of Marcum for Lawrie.
Sure if there is a prospect to be had that is almost major league ready (like Will Myers this offseason) or a first or second year major league player I am fine for that. But I don't think that is what green was suggesting.
Strohman I'm pretty sure is going to be a reliever long term not a starter.
Strohman I'm pretty sure is going to be a reliever long term not a starter.
I'm thinking maybe someone like Chase Headley or a power package of Josh Willingham (perhaps with Morneau thrown in for good measure). That is, someone who can help the team contend for at least 2013 and 2014. Probably the Jays would want someone cheaper and controllable for more years, though.
The Jays will likely also need another strong starting pitcher for 2014 and beyond.
The Jays will likely also need another strong starting pitcher for 2014 and beyond.
If the Phillies fall out of contention, I wouldn't mind seeing the Jays set their sights on Chase Utley, if he's healthy and can be had for a couple of lesser prospects. He would be a great player to have on the roster for a 2013 playoff run.
noooooooo.... no more trading prospect talk....I keep seeing Jeff Kent and Michael Young..... and then Aaron Hill..... why am I having this nightmare.... most prospects fail, don't they and what the hay.... Hill was not even much of a player it seems when he was traded.... freakin bad dream.
I'm fine with what we've done so far, despite the early poor results. I think Dickey will be an above average pitcher (number 2 lets say) for his contract here and I think Reyes will give us a couple 3.5+ win seasons. But the thing about the team we have is we're set in a lot of positions with still a good deal of minor league depth, even if we gave away plenty of star prospects. So as the older players we have wane, we can slowly promote up through the minors. Drabek, Hutchison and Gose within the next year should be ready again, and a year after that Sanchez, Nolin and others. But if we thin out our prospect depth too much we're going to suddenly become a very old team without any guys on the way to improve the team. We're not going to have Yankees money to spend so I'd prefer for us to not take that approach.
The Casper Wells era is over.....DFA.
The Ramon Ortiz era begins. We don't know why yet.
And Jose Bautista is not in today's starting lineup.
I think that's the ideal scenario, and it could work out that way. But if the Jays end up needing a couple of upgrades to go the distance, what then? The window is now (the next 1-3 years, most likely). There could well be a rebuild of sorts happening in 2015 or 2016.
No doubt AA would prefer to keep his best prospects and make only those deals that are necessary - maybe going for a battered-but-still-useful Morneau or Berkman type instead of paying a premium for someone like Headley. But Anthopoulos will have to be honest with himself about how much talent he needs to put the team over the top.
No doubt AA would prefer to keep his best prospects and make only those deals that are necessary - maybe going for a battered-but-still-useful Morneau or Berkman type instead of paying a premium for someone like Headley. But Anthopoulos will have to be honest with himself about how much talent he needs to put the team over the top.
Bautista's back flared up on him.
Jose Reyes got some good news today...he should be back in 8 weeks rather than 12.
The Reyes news is GREAT news.
I don't see the Jays trading any more of their top prospects. Some salary should come off the books next year with the likely departures of Lind, Johnson, Oliver and Davis and possibly a Rasmus trade to make room for Gose. I'd like to see them go after a lefty bat, perhaps Morales, in free agency. They should have SP depth with Romero, Hutchison, Drabek, Stroman and Nolin presumably options for the 4th or 5th starter roles in 2014.
I don't see the Jays trading any more of their top prospects. Some salary should come off the books next year with the likely departures of Lind, Johnson, Oliver and Davis and possibly a Rasmus trade to make room for Gose. I'd like to see them go after a lefty bat, perhaps Morales, in free agency. They should have SP depth with Romero, Hutchison, Drabek, Stroman and Nolin presumably options for the 4th or 5th starter roles in 2014.
I wonder if Bautista back spasm is related to his playing 3rd?
I wouldn't be surprised if Bautista's back spasm ends his temporary duty at 3B.
I don't really understand the Ramon Ortiz for Caspar Wells move. I suppose he and Davis were viewed as too similar, but both Rasmus and Lind could sit against lefties to get their bats into the lineup.
I don't really understand the Ramon Ortiz for Caspar Wells move. I
suppose he and Davis were viewed as too similar, but both Rasmus and
Lind could sit against lefties to get their bats into the lineup.
What in the name of Branch Rickey are they thinking of? And with Bautista out and Lawrie not ready yet, the timing is bizarre. It's not a big move, but the continued reliance on the long pen and the short bench is causing my interest level in the club to drop. Most fans are interested in other things, but for me, there is something aesthetically pleasing about a well-managed and well-coached club.
What in the name of Branch Rickey are they thinking of? And with Bautista out and Lawrie not ready yet, the timing is bizarre. It's not a big move, but the continued reliance on the long pen and the short bench is causing my interest level in the club to drop. Most fans are interested in other things, but for me, there is something aesthetically pleasing about a well-managed and well-coached club.
The Casper Wells era is over... The Ramon Ortiz era begins. We don't know why yet.
Because the sun rose again and AA doesn't have any other hobbies?
I have no doubt Jose's back issues are due to playing 3B. His body simply was not ready for all the bending.
Aside from that, I am not a fan of this idea to move Jose to 3B and Lawrie to 2B. I think you are significantly weakening 3B and slightly weakening RF defensively. Leave those two at their best positions and work on strengthening either 2B or SS in other ways.
There are two problems I have with the front office’s approach to the bullpen. One is that, as I’ve asserted earlier, there is no evidence that suggests Esmil Rogers couldn’t pitch three innings if you need him to and right now he’s one of the lowest, if not the lowest, reliever in the pecking order. If the Jays needed someone to do the 5th-7th innings in a blowout, I have no doubt he could handle it. (So can Aaron Loup, for that matter, although that’s not his ideal deployment.) This may not address the issue of a true blowout where the starter is forced out in the first or second inning, but as unappealing aesthetically as it might be, that’s when you call on Henry Blanco to pitch the 8th and 9th if Rogers has mopped up a few and a couple of other relievers have done their inning.
Secondly, this suggests a lack of foresight by the management to me. Given the amount of capital the Jays spent pursuing bullpen upgrades, they should have focused their attention on a true multi-inning longman if the alternative was an insistence on carrying 8 relievers for most of the season. The fact that some of these relievers were coming off offseason surgery was not a surprise, nor is it a surprise that some of them are limited (effectively or by age) to going an inning. If it would have got the bullpen down to 7 men, I think it’d have been much better use of resources to go after a true multi-inning man in the mould of Craig Stammen rather than trading for Rogers.
Right now AA is reminding me of the typical Fantasy Football/Baseball owner who is always scouring the waiver wire, looking for that perfect pickup who might get hot. But at least in the fantasy cases they tend to give the new guy a week or so to actually find out who is good.
The only thing productive I see coming out of all this hoopla with claims and DFAs is maybe we're sneaking an extra guy or two into Buffalo while no one is looking.
The only thing productive I see coming out of all this hoopla with claims and DFAs is maybe we're sneaking an extra guy or two into Buffalo while no one is looking.
"....the continued reliance on the long pen and the short bench is causing my interest level in the club to drop...."
Amazing. One of the most productive off-seasons in Jays history, and one of the most intriguing teams in Jays history, with a lineup and rotation absolutely filled with stars, superstars, and eccentric characters, and yet some fans are still dissatisfied because the 25th man is not quite to their liking.
Amazing. One of the most productive off-seasons in Jays history, and one of the most intriguing teams in Jays history, with a lineup and rotation absolutely filled with stars, superstars, and eccentric characters, and yet some fans are still dissatisfied because the 25th man is not quite to their liking.
"....an insistence on carrying 8 relievers for most of the season...."
Most of the season? If your crystal ball is working, could you also please tell us whether the Jays make the playoffs or not?
Seriously, I'm surprised at the outrage over the loss of a 5th outfielder who wasn't useful enough to warrant a single at-bat in an entire series. If we scan Batter's Box for the past four days, was there anyone here who had publicly complained that Casper Wells should have been inserted into the game? Because I don't recall anyone saying that Gibbons screwed up by leaving Wells on the bench.
Most of the season? If your crystal ball is working, could you also please tell us whether the Jays make the playoffs or not?
Seriously, I'm surprised at the outrage over the loss of a 5th outfielder who wasn't useful enough to warrant a single at-bat in an entire series. If we scan Batter's Box for the past four days, was there anyone here who had publicly complained that Casper Wells should have been inserted into the game? Because I don't recall anyone saying that Gibbons screwed up by leaving Wells on the bench.
Wells would have been an upgrade on Rajai Davis. It was pretty clear that was my opinion before this latest move. The Jays didn't face a left-handed starter in the short time he was here, and so there wasn't really much of an occasion to complain about his non-use.
Like I said, most fans prefer to watch superstars, home run hitters...I like the flash as much as the next fan, but I also like watching a team in which diverse talents are put together well into a cohesive whole. Management seems to be at sea, right now, and the intricate weaving of talent isn't happening at all.
Like I said, most fans prefer to watch superstars, home run hitters...I like the flash as much as the next fan, but I also like watching a team in which diverse talents are put together well into a cohesive whole. Management seems to be at sea, right now, and the intricate weaving of talent isn't happening at all.
I think the problem as a fan though, is the notion that you have all the available information before you. Having been involved with actual teams behind the scenes, I can tell you the average fan knows truly , only about 15 - 25 % of the actual information that can drive a particular situation.
For me it's much better to judge actions rather than words. The Blue Jays by their roster management would seem to have some health concerns about their hurlers which we are not privy to. I found it quite interesting watching Delabar for instance last game, throw only one split finger pitch. Is his restructured elbow barking? We just don't really know the entire story.
For me it's much better to judge actions rather than words. The Blue Jays by their roster management would seem to have some health concerns about their hurlers which we are not privy to. I found it quite interesting watching Delabar for instance last game, throw only one split finger pitch. Is his restructured elbow barking? We just don't really know the entire story.
"...the intricate weaving of talent isn't happening at all...."
Compared to a year ago, 80 per cent of the rotation is new, as is half of the bullpen and a third of the lineup. To expect a perfectly seamless weaving of all this new talent is unrealistic. To criticize the 25th man for not being woven perfectly into this intricate new garment is nitpicking.
Compared to a year ago, 80 per cent of the rotation is new, as is half of the bullpen and a third of the lineup. To expect a perfectly seamless weaving of all this new talent is unrealistic. To criticize the 25th man for not being woven perfectly into this intricate new garment is nitpicking.
"Most of the season? If your crystal ball is working, could you also please tell us whether the Jays make the playoffs or not?
Seriously, I'm surprised at the outrage over the loss of a 5th outfielder who wasn't useful enough to warrant a single at-bat in an entire series."
Fair point regarding my comment about most of the season. However, while Caspar Wells didn't bat against a team that used almost exclusively righties against the Jays, but if he was still on the roster I'd have expected him to start on Wednesday and Thursday. I'd find your comment contributed more to the discussion if you addressed the substantive portion of our criticism of AA's recent bullpen acquisitions and his management of the 25th spot on the roster rather than comment on whether the criticism of the move is important.
Okay. On the substantive part about the 25th man, I didn't want to be repetitive since we've discussed this before, but here it is: I think Anthopoulos and Gibbons are prioritizing the health of their pitchers -- and with good reason, since they suffered so many injuries to their starters and relievers last season. (We've actually had debates on the Box about whether the Jays are doing enough to protect the health of their pitchers.) As fans, we know only a small fraction of the full information about the health of the pitchers, but I suspect there are anxieties about the potential workload-related health risks to relievers such as Janssen, Santos and Oliver, and starters such as Johnson and Morrow. We've noticed already that only a single starter (Happ) has been allowed to stay in a game for more than 100 pitches, which clearly indicates that the Jays are being cautious with their pitchers. And the Jays were very reluctant to allow Janssen to pitch on back-to-back games at the start of the season, although they have done it once. Over the course of the first 10 games, the 8th reliever (mostly Bush and Gonzalez) actually threw more innings than any other reliever, which indicates that the 8th reliever has an important mop-up role to ease the pressure on the rest of the bullpen. It seems clear to me that the Jays feel that an 8th reliever is sometimes valuable as a way of protecting the health of the pitching staff. And that, in turn, is more valuable than a 5th outfielder.
FWIW, Wells was far from the 25th man on the roster in my view. Any resemblance between him and Mike McCoy is coincidental. He's a platoon corner OF who hits well enough against LHP and plays good defence. He is a better player than Davis, Lind and several of the pitchers.
It's now evident that the injury to Santos (and the promotion of Lawrie) is a reasonable explanation for the decision to promote Ortiz and DFA Casper Wells. The Jays knew that Santos was ailing. They needed someone to replace him in a hurry, so Ortiz was the choice. And they knew Lawrie was ready to return to the lineup. To make room for Ortiz and Lawrie, they had to cut someone, and Wells was the logical choice. (The Jays clearly disagree with the suggestion that Wells is superior to Davis or Lind, but reasonable Bauxites can debate the issue.)
Some people are questioning AA's prolific use of the waiver wire and the 8th spot in the bullpen. I don't have a problem with it. One reason is the Jays desire to protect the health of the pitchers, as I mentioned above, but another factor is simply that the Jays having a good position in the waiver priority list. Because of their poor record in 2012, the Jays have an earlier crack at the waiver claims. They can choose a player who would be unavailable to those with better 2012 records. So AA is like a kid in a candy shop: he has more choices available to him than he ever had before.... And I don't see anything particularly wrong with this. If Mike Green is correct -- that Casper Wells was superior to Lind or Davis -- then it's possible for AA to acquire some decent players on the waiver wire.
At the end of spring training, a lot of us thought that Anthopoulos could acquire a decent player from the spring-ending roster cuts. That's still what he is trying to do today, and he's using the 25th-man spot on the roster as part of the strategy. Worth a try, in my view.
Some people are questioning AA's prolific use of the waiver wire and the 8th spot in the bullpen. I don't have a problem with it. One reason is the Jays desire to protect the health of the pitchers, as I mentioned above, but another factor is simply that the Jays having a good position in the waiver priority list. Because of their poor record in 2012, the Jays have an earlier crack at the waiver claims. They can choose a player who would be unavailable to those with better 2012 records. So AA is like a kid in a candy shop: he has more choices available to him than he ever had before.... And I don't see anything particularly wrong with this. If Mike Green is correct -- that Casper Wells was superior to Lind or Davis -- then it's possible for AA to acquire some decent players on the waiver wire.
At the end of spring training, a lot of us thought that Anthopoulos could acquire a decent player from the spring-ending roster cuts. That's still what he is trying to do today, and he's using the 25th-man spot on the roster as part of the strategy. Worth a try, in my view.
Good point Cf about us possibly getting some "not bad" talent due to our high ranking on the waiver wire.
For example: Brad Lincoln may be a "not bad" pitcher. He is depth right now. Bush & Ortiz have been called up before him.
Someone may come off the 60 day DL, hopefully McGowan. Sean Nolin may pitch well enough to be considered for a promotion if we need a 6th starter some day. That would take up 2 40 man roster spots.
Looking ahead Hutch will have to come off the 60 day DL by December. So if Lincoln looks like he may not be worthy of a 40 man roster spot then package him in July, Aug or Sept.
I believe Lincoln will burn his 2nd option in about 10 days & Sierra will burn his 3rd & last option by then.
Other teams may face similar situations for their "not bad" players.
For example: Brad Lincoln may be a "not bad" pitcher. He is depth right now. Bush & Ortiz have been called up before him.
Someone may come off the 60 day DL, hopefully McGowan. Sean Nolin may pitch well enough to be considered for a promotion if we need a 6th starter some day. That would take up 2 40 man roster spots.
Looking ahead Hutch will have to come off the 60 day DL by December. So if Lincoln looks like he may not be worthy of a 40 man roster spot then package him in July, Aug or Sept.
I believe Lincoln will burn his 2nd option in about 10 days & Sierra will burn his 3rd & last option by then.
Other teams may face similar situations for their "not bad" players.
China Fan, I don't think anyone here objects to AA's prolific use of the waiver wire. I think it's a great way to add talent and organizational depth around the edges (taking as a given that the miniscule amounts of cash on such claims aren't going to prevent any future talent acquisition). The problem that Mike and I and others who object to carrying 8 relievers have, which becomes particularly more pronounced when carrying the 8th reliever may cost the team a useful player like Wells, is the suboptimal deployment of talent. If the Jays lost Wells for an even more useful player, I'd have no objection.
The objection I have is losing him for Ramon Ortiz on a day with Mark Buehrle starting and four relievers in the pen who hadn't pitched the previous day (and a fifth who had pitched on Sunday, but not Saturday). The necessity of having an eighth reliever in that situation escapes me. Now, you can reduce the number of available relievers by one if you assume the team knew Santos was unavailable and may have to go on the DL, but that still doesn't convice me Ortiz was necessary. I guess you can argue the team figured Ortiz would effectively replace Santos when he was placed on the DL and they'd still lose Wells for Lawrie, but I'd rather the team wait to see what occurred in the meantime.
The team played a game last night with 24 players. That's unacceptable when your AAA squad is 2 hours away.
"...I guess you can argue the team figured Ortiz would effectively replace Santos when he was placed on the DL and they'd still lose Wells for Lawrie, but I'd rather the team wait to see what occurred in the meantime..."
But the "meantime" was only 24 hours, if I'm not mistaken. The Jays, clearly, had already decided to cut Wells when Lawrie was ready to return -- and Lawrie was ready today. So they cut Wells a day earlier than necessary, in order to have Ortiz on the roster yesterday, knowing that Santos was ailing. And Ortiz was useful because of the risk that Buerhle might only last 4 innings, as he did in his last start. If Buerhle was knocked out early again, and if the Jays had only 4 available relievers, they would have been stretched quite thin.
But the "meantime" was only 24 hours, if I'm not mistaken. The Jays, clearly, had already decided to cut Wells when Lawrie was ready to return -- and Lawrie was ready today. So they cut Wells a day earlier than necessary, in order to have Ortiz on the roster yesterday, knowing that Santos was ailing. And Ortiz was useful because of the risk that Buerhle might only last 4 innings, as he did in his last start. If Buerhle was knocked out early again, and if the Jays had only 4 available relievers, they would have been stretched quite thin.
92-93, could you elaborate on your last post? Do you mean Ortiz did not arrive in Toronto in time for yesterday's game, or do you mean that the Jays did not move fast enough to put Santos on the DL and get Lawrie up from Dunedin? Gameday says that Ortiz was available for the game last night, and Lawrie's unavailability was because Dunedin is not as close as Buffalo. If you mean that Santos should have been placed on the DL a day earlier -- how do you know that his physical ailment was clear to everyone a day earlier? The Jays were probably assessing his health up until the last minute, not wanting to DL him until they were certain that he wouldn't recover in a day or two.
The problem, when you're promoting players from Buffalo or elsewhere, is not the geographical distance between Toronto and the minor-league team. The problem is the complexities of roster management: juggling the 40-man roster spots without burning options needlessly, and without exposing players to waivers when they get sent back down.
The Jays have already done a lot of juggling with the 25th man on their roster, involving players like Jeffress, Bush, Gonzalez and Wells. In each case, they had to be exposed to the rest of the league when they weren't needed on the 25-man roster any more. It's a tricky thing to do -- you want good players on the team, but you also don't want to lose players so quickly, especially when you've promised Buffalo a good team.
The problem, when you're promoting players from Buffalo or elsewhere, is not the geographical distance between Toronto and the minor-league team. The problem is the complexities of roster management: juggling the 40-man roster spots without burning options needlessly, and without exposing players to waivers when they get sent back down.
The Jays have already done a lot of juggling with the 25th man on their roster, involving players like Jeffress, Bush, Gonzalez and Wells. In each case, they had to be exposed to the rest of the league when they weren't needed on the 25-man roster any more. It's a tricky thing to do -- you want good players on the team, but you also don't want to lose players so quickly, especially when you've promised Buffalo a good team.
You're not mistaken that it was only 24 hours. However, given Buehrle's history of durability and the availability of every pitcher except for Oliver and Cecil (and it's not clear that they couldn't have pitched in an emergency but I'm assuming they were unavailable on the basis that those two pitched in both weekend games), I think there should have been every expectation that the Jays could survive the off-chance that Buehrle had a disasterous start.
Don't forget the downside to making the move a day early was that, given Bautista's unavailability, the Jays played Monday's game with a two-man bench, one of whom was Henry Blanco. I think the loss in ability to make offensive and defensive tactical adjustments is particularly noticeable with a two-man bench and, at least in this case, outweighs the necessity of having Ramon Ortiz around as Buehrle's disaster safety net. I think playing with a two-man bench is more or less inexcusable except in the rarest of situations, which this wasn't. You may feel otherwise.
(This discussion is still bracketing the separate issue of whether Wells was the right position player to send down.)
"The Jays were probably assessing his health up until the last minute, not wanting to DL him until they were certain that he wouldn't recover in a day or two."
And they used a game in which he didn't warm up in to arrive at this conclusion? Why didn't they make the decision 5 minutes before the game (with a AAA player on standby just in case) instead of 5 minutes after?
And they used a game in which he didn't warm up in to arrive at this conclusion? Why didn't they make the decision 5 minutes before the game (with a AAA player on standby just in case) instead of 5 minutes after?
Because, as I outlined above, AAA players are not "on standby" for the majors. There are issues of options, 40-man roster spots, etc. They're not just an extended bench.
Both Wells & Ortiz were with the team. You need to explain why Wells was DFAd before the game for Ortiz if Santos was going to be DLd right after.
No, I think you need to explain why the Jays should have known about Santos's health several hours earlier than they did. How do you know the Jays trainers and medical staff weren't assessing his health up to the moment when they DL'ed him? Health issues don't precisely occur at the moment of greatest convenience for game schedules.
I do know that the Jays would have been reluctant to put Santos on the DL, losing him for 15 days, if he may have been ready to play within a day or two. That's why most teams routinely delay those DL decisions until the absolute last minute. And that's why teams often play short-handed. Why lose Santos or Bautista for 15 full days if they could be ready by Wednesday or Thursday? You play short-handed for one or two games, so that you don't lose your best players for 15 games.
I do know that the Jays would have been reluctant to put Santos on the DL, losing him for 15 days, if he may have been ready to play within a day or two. That's why most teams routinely delay those DL decisions until the absolute last minute. And that's why teams often play short-handed. Why lose Santos or Bautista for 15 full days if they could be ready by Wednesday or Thursday? You play short-handed for one or two games, so that you don't lose your best players for 15 games.
"why the Jays should have known about Santos's health several hours earlier than they did. How do you know the Jays trainers and medical staff weren't assessing his health up to the moment when they DL'ed him?"
Because sitting in the bullpen for 2.5 hours shouldn't have provided them with any information they couldn't have obtained before the game. I understand the sensitive need for information before ultimately placing him on the DL; I don't understand what the staff learned during the course of the game that they couldn't have figured out earlier so that the team wouldn't be forced to play a game with a 2 man bench.
Because sitting in the bullpen for 2.5 hours shouldn't have provided them with any information they couldn't have obtained before the game. I understand the sensitive need for information before ultimately placing him on the DL; I don't understand what the staff learned during the course of the game that they couldn't have figured out earlier so that the team wouldn't be forced to play a game with a 2 man bench.
Just because we don't understand why something happened in the sequence that it happened doesn't mean that the automatic answer is: "The Jays are too stupid to realize that a 2-man bench is less than ideal."
On the flip side, just because every decision a team makes can be justified and properly hedged does not mean that MLB front offices never make mistakes and do silly things.
This principle seems to guide most of the discussions we have.
This principle seems to guide most of the discussions we have.