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The Toronto Blue Jays pay their first visit to Fenway Park in 2014. They'll be joined by lefthander Rob Rasmussen, who has been called up from Buffalo.

Rob Rasmussen posted a 2.65 earned run average and struck out 19 batters in 17 innings with Buffalo this season. According to BlueJays.com, he will wear #59, joining the immortal Carlos Diaz, Mark Dalesandro, Adam Peterson, Curtis Thigpen, Jesse Carlson, Randy Wells and "Strasburg Canada" himself, Brad Mills to wear those digits.



The Blue Jays carry a 23-22 record into this series while the Red Sox are three game below .500 at 20-23. The two clubs faced each other back in April at the Dome where Boston took two of out three. The Sox handled Mark Buehrle his lone loss of the 2014 season in the opener and drew eight walks off Brandon Morrow in the middle game to hold off the Jays 7-6. R.A. Dickey prevented the series sweep by winning on his bobblehead day, lasting 6.1 innings in a 7-1 victory.

Series Schedule & Probable Starters...

Tonight, 7:10 pm ET - LHP J.A. Happ (2-1, 3.74) vs. LHP Felix Doubront (2-3, 4.54).
Wednesday, 7:10 pm ET - RHP Drew Hutchison (2-3, 3.64) vs RHP Clay Buchholz (2-3, 6.17).
Thursday, 4:05 pm ET - LHP Mark Buehrle (7-1, 2.11) vs. LHP Jon Lester (4-5, 2.67).


Tonight's lineup - Reyes SS, Cabrera LF, Bautista RF, Encarnacion 1B, Lawrie 3B, Navarro DH, Tolleson 2B, Kratz C, Pillar CF.

Jays @ Boston - May 20 - 22 | 203 comments | Create New Account
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92-93 - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#286541) #
I just looked at the recent bullpen usage, and I'm dumbfounded by the need for an 8th reliever tonight. I wish the team would use opportunities like tonight to employ an extra position player - if the bullpen took a beating tonight, the Jays AAA team is a phone call away. I understand that Gibbons probably wants the extra lefty available to him in Fenway, and I don't agree with the decision with Loup & Cecil on board.

If the Jays go 3-3 @BOS and home to OAK and take an above .500 record into next Monday, I will consider that a strong week.
Cracka - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#286542) #
It's an 8-man bullpen, but with only 4 starters, there's still a 4 man bench: Lind, Francisco, Thole, and Gose tonight. I'm not convinced that we need an 8-man pen either, but given the choice between an extra lefty reliever or a 5th bench player, I don't have a problem with it. The Jays have averaged a 25-man roster move every ~2 days so far, so it's likely very temporary.
China fan - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#286543) #
"....I just looked at the recent bullpen usage, and I'm dumbfounded by the need for an 8th reliever tonight..."

But the recent workload of the existing bullpen is not the only factor in the equation when you're assessing the value of an 8th reliever.  Gibbons likes to play the match-ups in his bullpen usage, and I think we all agree that he's generally done a pretty reasonable job of choosing the correct reliever at the correct time.  Adding an 8th reliever, especially a lefty, gives him an additional weapon for improved match-ups. Cecil and Loup have been somewhat inconsistent this year, so I don't see anything wrong with adding Rasmussen for a series against Boston.  Another factor is that Redmond won't be available for the entire series because they'll need to save him for a possible Saturday start -- or an extended game in relief if Hendriks fares poorly.  And while Hutchison and Buehrle have pitched well this season, Happ is probably only good for 5 or 6 innings.  Pitching, rather than the offense, is still the Jays weakness this year, so I don't see anything wrong with bolstering the bullpen rather than the bench.  Of course it's an eternal debate and anyone can have a legitimate opinion on either side of the debate, but I don't see anything inherently wrong with a decision that bolsters the pitching rather than the bench.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#286544) #
with two lefties on the hill for the Sox this series, not to mention a 3-lefty bullpen, might have been a good time to give a lefty-masher like Goedert a look.
scottt - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#286545) #
With Rasmus on the DL, there isn't a single lefty bat in today's lineup and you got Lind and Francisco on the bench plus Gose to pinch run if needed.

That looks fine to me.

John Northey - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#286546) #
B-R Preview shows us...
1 day rest: Cecil, Redmond
2 days: Delabar, Janssen, Loup
5 days: Rogers

They don't include...
McGowan: 1 day rest (3 pitches)
Rasmussen: 1 day rest (15 pitches), 5 days before that so is OK.

So everyone is available, with Cecil being the most 'tired' due to 21 pitches on Sunday (ie: he is available but 1 inning max I'd think).  If the pen is worn down today expect Rasmussen to be back to AAA and someone else getting the call.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#286547) #
yeah, I guess I'd just like to see what Goedert can do, especially if he can field 2B instead of Tolleson.

MiLB vs. LHP since 2011:

C Kratz 170pa, .301/.341/.622/.963 (MLB: 114pa, .175/.254/.398/.652)
OF Pillar 433pa, .361/.398/.527/.925 (MLB: 42pa, .256/.310/.410/.720)
UT Goedert 465pa, .290/.381/.538/.919 (MLB: ---)
UT Tolleson 402pa, .271/.364/.394/.758 (MLB: 77pa, .225/.276/.423/.698)

Though to be fair, Goedert has played the majority of his milb career at 3B (586gms) with only 74gms at 2B, so maybe the point is moot.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#286548) #
Happ strikes out 6 of first 9 batters. Really using the Sox patience against them and painting fastball after fastball on the black.

Not used to seeing this aggressive approach from happ. I like it.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#286549) #
EE crushes one over the monster....over the monster seats...over the parking lot....across lansdowne st.....off the top of the billboard.....

....that was pretty ridiculous.

greenfrog - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#286550) #
This game has been brought to you by Ontario Power Generation.
jerjapan - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#286551) #
I just looked at the recent bullpen usage, and I'm dumbfounded by the need for an 8th reliever tonight.

Is it really necessary to have this conversation daily?  The Jays brass - who are employed to run a MLB team -  feel it makes sense.  The fans on the Box don't.  Can't we leave it at that?

As a ball fan, I'm more interested in the top 24 players on the roster than the last man. 

And wasn't the move to Buffalo lauded around here for precisely this reason? 
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#286552) #
Wow - Happ catches a break. Walks are the worst. It's weird how he can go from brilliant to terrible so quickly in the course of a game.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#286553) #
Just as Happ starts to look like Happ again, Lawrie saves him with a ridiculous one handed stab to start a 3B-HP DP.

That's an easy uncontested hit with Francisco at 3B.
Chuck - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#286554) #
NBA update: Despite just a 1.7% chance, the Cavaliers will be selecting first in the upcoming draft.

We now return to your regularly scheduled programming.

electric carrot - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#286555) #
That's an easy uncontested hit with Francisco at 3B.

I have no idea how Brett Lawrie got to that ball.  That is seriously one of the most ridiculous plays I've seen this year.  If you watch it in slow motion, the world slows down but Lawrie is actually moving in real time. Incroyable!

uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#286556) #
With the SP on 87 pitches thru 5ip and a 6-2 lead I'd normally say keep him in....but after that inning full of hard hit balls, and the lefty mashers Napoli and Gomes coming up next inning, I'd be just fine with Gibber putting the bullpen to work.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#286557) #
"I have no idea how Brett Lawrie got to that ball. That is seriously one of the most ridiculous plays I've seen this year. If you watch it in slow motion, the world slows down but Lawrie is actually moving in real time. Incroyable! "

it's like his arm grew just long enough to reach it.
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#286558) #
Melky Cabrera looks like he get used to hitting in Fenway.  As a LHH, there's really no place to pitch him. 

And there's another ball that Reyes ought to have got to.  Sigh.  Aging is no fun at all.

uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#286559) #
damn, shoulda pulled Happ. the lefty mashers mash him. 3 run game.
92-93 - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#286560) #
If you have 8 relievers you might as well use them, but I had no problem with trying to squeeze the 6th out of Happ there; they are going to need him to pitch into the 6th and 7th innings as the 4th starter. I'm really confused as to how you can think he should've been pulled though, uglyone; it seems to be the direct opposite of what you've been saying every other game.

I really, really hope we don't see them blow this one.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#286561) #
I acknowledged it's the opposite of what I've said every other game, but Happ was getting crushed the inning before, the two lefty mashers were coming up next, and he's our 5th starter and these are the red sox.

uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#286562) #
ach. 2 outs, 2 on, 3 run game....and that rat Pedroia up.

I'm guessing this is the key at bat of the game.
92-93 - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#286563) #
Bunting with first and second, no outs, down 3 runs at Fenway Park is exactly why I'm happy John Farrell is no longer managing this club.
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#286564) #
Pedroia bites the dust, not the Dustin. It might have been otherwise.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#286565) #
electric carrot - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#286566) #
Bunting with first and second, no outs, down 3 runs at Fenway Park is exactly why I'm happy John Farrell is no longer managing this club.

agreed. although my biggest gripe with Gibbons is that he's got no touch when it comes to the hit and run.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#286567) #
"Bunting with first and second, no outs, down 3 runs at Fenway Park is exactly why I'm happy John Farrell is no longer managing this club."

heh. exactly.

well, one of many reasons, but that's a big one.
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#286568) #
The Jays need this win. Enough of this .500 crap.
92-93 - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#286569) #
This is a spot where you'd like to see McGowan be able to handle the 7th, at least to start it off with Cecil & Delabar ready behind him. Not sure Gibby wants to press him into multi-inning action just yet though, if ever.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#286570) #
Mike Wilner @Wilnerness590
Rob Rasmussen is up in #Bluejays bullpen, getting ready to make his #MLB debut by facing David Ortiz in a save situation. #Jays


er.....questionable strategy, gibber.
92-93 - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#286571) #
Well, this is what the 8 man bullpen is for. If you can't use him in the 7th vs. a lefty with the bases empty and a 3 run lead, he shouldn't be here.
Paul D - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#286572) #
I guess that's why you have 8 guys in the bullpen.  Good for Rasmussen. 
uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#286574) #
nice job, kid.

now please make it easy on us, Delabar/Cecil/Janssen.



Decided to check Rasmussen's numbers for the first time ever just now. This is his first year in relief and his K/9 has spiked up over 10 as a result. He's also had BBitis though with over 5 per 9. even his numbers as an SP have been mostly good...before last year's AAA debut.

Only 25yrs old. Maybe he's not just fodder. never know with lefties.
Cracka - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#286575) #
The Brad Lincoln trade for Rasmussen & Kratz looks pretty good tonight.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#286576) #
so much for making it easy on us.

thanks, delabar.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#286577) #
another free out, courtesy of Farell.

I'll take it.
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#286578) #
Another run or two would be nice. Don't let up.
Chuck - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#286579) #
Rob Rasmussen is up in #Bluejays bullpen, getting ready to make his #MLB debut by facing David Ortiz in a save situation. #Jays

Technically accurate, but save situation is not terribly meaningful. Rasmussen was going to face exactly one batter, with the bases empty, in the 7th inning. Nothing he was being asked to do had anything to do with a save.

uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#286580) #
ach. ump gives Tazawa a huge gift strike 3 call to avoid a bases loaded no out situation. that's annoying.

come on Casey, bring us home.
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#286581) #
Brett Lawrie did everything right there, and what did he have to show for it?  Bupkes.  Takes the first pitch in and lines it sharply just foul down the left field line.  Whacks the second pitch on the outside corner on a line right at the first baseman for an easy double play.  If he keeps doing that, he's going to be hitting .290 when the season ends.
Chuck - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#286582) #
A younger Reyes gets that. This Reyes, not so much.
uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#286583) #
Lawrie might do better at SS than Reyes.
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#286584) #
The Jays might want to consider using a late-inning defensive sub at SS. This was one of the reasons I wanted the Jays to add someone like Brendan Ryan last off-season. Those are key outs to be giving away.
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#286585) #
W...as in, whew
uglyone - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#286586) #
whoa.

Ortiz makes me soil myself, then Casey gets the K and the DP.

Casey is ice.

great win with our #5/6 SP on the mound.

Yanks lose, too, so we catch them for 2nd....though the Orioles stay a half game ahead in first.
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#286587) #
Thought the same thing, but didn't want to pile on.  It was also surprising that Reyes didn't beat the return throw on the DP. 
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#286588) #
Going into tonight's game, Lawrie was hitting 333/388/511 in May. That'll play. It would be great if he would walk a bit more, but he's playing well overall.

I would prefer to see the Jays give Reyes the occasional day off and the occasional day at DH, and use a defensive sub in games like the one tonight. Nothing radical, just some modified usage. Reyes would likely be healthier, hit better, run better, and field better as a result. And the team would probably win more games.
92-93 - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#286589) #
There's just no way you can remove Reyes from SS at this point in his career, especially not as a defensive replacement. You'd have to be bringing in an elite SS and selling him on a move to 2B or 3B, but Brendan Ryan? Come on. Reyes' defense is a sacrifice you make to have his offense. Hopefully his bat remains worth it.

I wonder if Gibby was trying to stay away from Cecil tonight, and if that weighed heavily in Rasmussen's call-up.
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 20 2014 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#286590) #
When the Jays are up 7-4 in the bottom of the ninth in Fenway, they no longer need Reyes's offense. They need as much defense as they can cram on the field, whether it's Ryan or Diaz or whoever. I realize that it's not a "realistic" move, though, as a manager has to keep his star veterans happy. On the other hand, I'm pretty sure that a elite defensive sub would get used at an identical point in a critical game in the playoffs.
Hodgie - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 12:06 AM EDT (#286591) #
I think one of my favourite things about Jays/Red Sox games is the amusement I garner from the post game review of the Son's of Sam Horn game threads. Let me just say that Mr. Farrell is not exactly beloved in Beantown.
TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#286592) #
Here are some highlights from Sons of Sam Horn following the bottom of the 8th. It's a good reminder of how frustrating Farrell could be:

Good. After the bunt, we did not deserve to score runs that inning.

I seriously don't get how Farrell, a seemingly smart enough guy who works for a very stats-oriented team, makes SO MANY STUPID DECISIONS. I don't get it. It's like we're being punked.

They've given away two outs tonight. Why not just spot them a whole inning tomorrow?

Again, Farrell makes me wonder if he just got incredibly lucky last year.

"So by bunting he was trying to end the game sooner and make a late dinner reservation?"

Well that's as good an explanation as any. Obviously its very dumb, and Farrell has lost his mind. I am just tempering my own anger by telling myself that wasn't going to be much of an inning anyway.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 08:02 AM EDT (#286593) #
By contrast, Anthony Gose's drag bunt was a thing of beauty- it was his 2nd nicely executed bunt in less than a week.  I'd like to see Gibbons try the run and hit with Gose/Reyes.  Reyes seems uncertain at the plate with Gose on first, perhaps not knowing whether he should take a pitch so Gose can attempt to steal second.  For what it's worth, fangraphs has Gose at 0.9 WAR in 24 PAs this year.  That is very hard to do, but  when you reach base in 1/2 of your PAs, run like the wind and catch everything in CF, you can get there. He's obviously not going to keep this up, but even putting in an OBP of .310, he's pretty much a league average player.  Maybe he can snake it up to .330 this year and be better than that. 

Cabrera needs a day off, but I'd wait until the club leaves Boston.  He looks like a terror at the plate and he played the wall as if he had spent his career in Boston.

Chuck - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#286594) #
but even putting in an OBP of .310, he's pretty much a league average player.

Conversely, even though it's only been 14 AB and thus too early for a fair evaluation, Pillar looks to have about the same strike zone judgement skills as Sierra, maybe even worse. Thus far, he has looked entirely overmatched at the plate.

uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#286595) #
(Since 2011)

MiLB v. LHP:

Pillar: 433pa, .925ops (vRHP: 1072pa, .790)
Gose: 419pa, .617ops (vRHP: 1213pa, .771)

MLB v. LHP

Pillar: 44pa, .686ops (vRHP: 80pa, .485)
Gose: 83pa, .589ops (vRHP: 283pa, .694)
TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#286596) #
In 41 PAs with the White Sox, Sierra's hitting 297/341/405. For the season, this puts him at just 183/224/239. Talking about strike zone judgement, though, he looks worlds beyond Pillar. Sierra has swung at 34% of pitches outside the zone, Pillar 53%. (Average is 29%.) Sierra has a 5.3% walk rate; Pillar was at 6.0% in Buffalo and is walkless in Toronto. As you say, Chuck, it's still early. As I mentioned a few days ago, though, it's hard to be optimistic given a walk rate in AAA that would be considered "poor" (going by FanGraphs' description) were he to have done it in the majors. If he's going to swing at most pitches outside the strike zone, he's not giving pitchers any reason to throw him strikes.
TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#286597) #
fangraphs has Gose at 0.9 WAR in 24 PAs this year

Yeah, that's really remarkable. Before yesterday's game, he was actually tied with Melky Cabrera (in about 180 fewer PAs), though Cabrera's now jumped ahead a bit. Here are the Blue Jays WAR leaders so far on the year:

Bautista, 206 PA, 2.3 WAR
Hutchison, 54.1 IP, 1.5 WAR
Buehrle, 59.2 IP, 1.4 WAR
Encarnacion, 199 PA, 1.3 WAR
Francisco, 102 PA, 1.1 WAR
Cabrera, 205 PA, 1.1 WAR
Gose, 24 PA, 0.9 WAR
Dickey, 60 IP, 0.8 WAR
Cecil, 19.1 IP, 0.5 WAR
Lind, 79 PA, 0.5 WAR
Lawrie, 161 PA, 0.5 WAR
Chuck - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#286598) #
Kevin Pillar may well prove useful. I'm not saying that I know he won't. I am pessimistic, to be sure, but certainly in no position to make any categorical assertions about what he will and won't do in the majors.

Subjectively -- yes, one of the worst ways to assess a player -- he brings me back to Eric Crozier. Remember this guy? He got his taste of the big leagues in late 2004 (aside: I am rattled not just a little about what I thought was a few years ago really being a full decade ago).

Crozier's minor league record suggested he might be useful, despite being an old rookie at 25. But he looked just brutal in the majors. His K rate (19 in 33 AB) was objective evidence to defend the subjective evaluation.

While Pillar hasn't looked anywhere near Crozier terrible, I am filled with the same concern that this is someone who doesn't have the fundamental tools to hit in the majors. Again, it's just 14 AB thus far this season, much much too early to draw any meaningful conclusions. And I am not doing that, just expressing concern.

Lylemcr - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#286599) #

I am so happy the jays managed to get the win for Happ.   The Jays always panic with the Bosox.  IF they can have a strong series against them, maybe it could be a good shot in the arm.  I like their chances with Beuhrle and Hutchinson. 

I think we are overblowing the size of the pen vs the bench.  I would be a lot happier to see our regulars than anybody off that bench and Gibbons can use the pen for matchups at will.  Keep the 8 man pen.

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#286600) #
I don't quite agree with that assessment.  Pillar looks awfully jumpy at the plate.   Leo Durocher would probably be suggesting that he have a drink at lunch time to relax...maybe a mojito, seeing as it is getting warmer.  Pillar is making contact on pitches in the zone, and his ability to sort out strikes from balls in the minor leagues has not been a major issue.  I think that he'll be all right as a platoon player/4th OF.  Regression is likely to apply to both he and Gose.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#286601) #
If Crozier was a center fielder, he probably would have had himself a nice career with that bat.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#286602) #
Let's take a wee look at Pillar and Sierra.
Pillar: MLB: 43 G, 116 AB; MiLB: 345 G, 1381 AB.
Sierra: MLB: 112 G, 355 AB; MiLB: 716 G, 2892 AB.
That's like comparing apples and oranges as being the same, because they are fruit. That's not fairly done. I expect better from this site.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#286603) #
Unfortunately pillar made a bad first impression this year when he was forced into the lineup against two nasty RHP in masterson and kluber, and they did make the kid look silly no doubt.

In his two starts since, both against LHP, he's gone 2/6 with a double (.333/.333/.500/.833).
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#286605) #
I actually like him, but Sierra is more of a DH then an OF.

Pillar is a CF.

And Pillar (.686) has been better in mlb vs. LHP than Sierra (.674) anyways.

Not to mention the minor league numbers:

Sierra: .782ops AAA, .782ops AA, .737ops milb
Pillar: .822ops AAA, .802ops AA, .829ops milb

Hodgie - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#286606) #
Does anyone have any idea how often Gose has utilized the bunt in the minors, if at all? I ask because this version of Gose looks much different than previous versions, small sample size caveats acknowledged. In previous stints the man struggled to even get a bunt down. If these last two bunts are any indication of his true bunting ability, a .330+ OBP isn't out of question given his penchant for an above average walk rate.

With his centerfield defense, a .330+ OBP version of Gose is a 5 WAR player.

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#286608) #
Minor league central indicates that about 2% of Gose's balls in play in the minors from 2011-13 have been bunts.  He has bunted 16 times.  Not very often, in other words.  He bunted once in 124 PAs in Buffalo in 2014. 

So far this year in the majors, he's had 70% of his balls in play on the ground.  If you've got the third baseman playing in and the first baseman playing in and you've got Gose's speed and his ability to hit the ball hard often enough, that looks to me to be a very good plan.  I wonder if Seitzer has been involved.

TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#286609) #
...his ability to sort out strikes from balls in the minor leagues has not been a major issue.

Well, he's had a good K% in the minor leagues, if that's what you mean. He doesn't strike out. But I don't know if that's the same thing as sorting out strikes from balls, since he probably still swings at too many balls, judging by his minor league walk rate. I mean, 6% -- that's like 36 walks in 600 PAs. At AAA. In any case, we'll see. I agree he's a better option than Sierra and the best guy to have in the big leagues right now as a RH platoon/4th OF/pinch-runner.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#286611) #
You can't look at minor league walk rate to determine ability to sort out balls from strikes.  Take Tony Gwynn.  In Triple A, he was walking about 5% of the time, striking out about the same amount and hitting for a little pop.   Obviously, Pillar does not have the contact ability that Gwynn had, but for the times, his minor league K rate is very, very good.  You don't end up with a K rate like that, swinging wildly as he has been in the majors.

Eric Crozier's history isn't really comparable to Pillar's.  Pillar has hit .300+ at every level since he was drafted, with relatively few walks and relatively few strikeouts and just a little pop.  Crozier hit .245/.345/.455 at double A at age 24, and then put up a similar line but with a batting average 35 points higher in triple A at age 25.  He then got his only 39 PAs in the majors, hit 2 homers, walked 6 times and struck out 19 times, and that was it.  Crozier didn't really have a role on a club if he didn't hit very well and so 39PAs was all the opportunity he got.  Moises Sierra is a different case too- his career minor league line is .267/.327/.411.  Even if he hits that in the majors, he doesn't really have a role in this time of 8 man pens.

Chuck - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#286612) #
The Eric Crozier "comp" was purely visceral, nothing more than that. The way my brain asks the question "what the hell is he doing?" when I watch Pillar bat is reminiscent of my reaction to Crozier's time with the team.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#286614) #
I am pretty sure it is nerves; it's like watching an internalized version of Brett Lawrie.  If pre-game mojitos are out of the question, then maybe yoga instead. 
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#286615) #
No doubt he has swung at some 2-strike pitches that weren't just balls, but barely caught the outside edge of the opposite batter's box.

Those swings were so ridiculous that for now like mike i have to chalk them up to nerves. Given his milb numbers and strikeout rate, his zone judgement just can't be THAT off.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#286616) #
Jays' pen was 5-9 with 5 blown saves (13/18) in 38gms with Casey out.

Jays' pen is 1-0 with 0 blown saves (4/4) in 8gms with Casey back.
Magpie - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#286620) #
Jays' pen is 1-0 with 0 blown saves (4/4) in 8 gms with Casey back.

There was one Blown Save in there (Loup in relief of Buehrle last Saturday) in a game than Janssen eventually saved for Delabar.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#286621) #
MLB has stupid regs. You can blow 4 saves in one game and still have the 5th pitcher score a save. Not all blown saves are equal. They are only significant if they cost a game.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#286622) #
Or if you prefer, Casey Janssen is an impressive 0.36 WPA whereas Santos was a not-so-impressive -1.39 WPA. 

You can be a slave to the save, or a slave to love, but wins are where it's at, baby!
92-93 - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#286623) #
I think we can all agree that we don't even need stats to recognize the difference a healthy Casey Janssen makes to the bullpen. The game feels that much different when Gibbons really only needs to manage the bullpen in the 6th through 8th inning. I don't think Delabar has looked nearly as sharp as he did last year, but it's a good enough bullpen when Janssen is at the top, even without an effective Sergio Santos, who could really lengthen the group.
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#286624) #
When was the last time Janssen was actually healthy? It seems to me he's been gutting out his relief appearances for over a year -- maybe a lot longer than that. Fortunately, he's talented enough to perform at an elite level despite being less than 100%.
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#286625) #
Looks like EE is about due for a promotion. He clearly has nothing left to learn at this level. Hey, wait a minute...
scottt - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#286626) #
3 weeks. Just needs Encarnation to stay hot three weeks. Maybe hypnosis could do it...
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#286627) #
Hutch looked sloppy in the first. Couldn't locate and threw a couple meatballs. But he really has it going now. Nothing but corners, and the slider looks unhittable. Well, except that rat pedroia somehow managed to dive out and flick one in front of gose.

Hope the hitters don't relax too much.....this should be much more than a four run lead.....and this lead ain't safe on fenway.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#286628) #
Drew Hutchison struggles when he gets in long pitch counts to individual batters, and 30+ pitch innings.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#286629) #
And right when i post that hutch stops hitting corners. Argh.

Edit: gets out of it.

Hopefully that refocuses the team a bit. This game is not over yet.
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#286630) #
Great job by Navarro to extend the inning, collect an RBI for an add-on run, and knock Buchholz out of the game after 4.2 IP.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#286631) #
Buchholz is SO their version of Morrow.
scottt - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#286633) #
Navarro keeps getting the clutch hits.
scottt - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#286634) #
Well, he seems to have stopped throwing spitballs.
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#286635) #
Hutch is a competitor, is confident, has decent stuff, has good control and command, and has a good feel for pitching. It's a nice package.
scottt - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#286636) #
I'm still amazed that Ortiz doesn't either slow down or test positive for something. Now 38.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#286637) #
Drew needs a quick inning or he's done.

Ortiz has spent 90% or more of his career as DH, less wear and tear on the body. And yes, he's tested reasonably often.
rfan8 - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#286638) #
A small strike zone is hurting both team's pitchers tonight
scottt - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#286639) #
He did slow down in 2008, 2009, which seems normal at the time but then he went right back up.
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#286640) #
Another confidence-building game for Gose. Good for him.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#286641) #
Gose makes them pay for pitching around Navarro.  He looks very focused.
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#286642) #
So, when Lance Barksdale is the crew chief, do the umps get called the Barksdale crew? That could get confusing in Baltimore.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#286643) #
There was another Gose play on Gomes.  It didn't look spectacular, but he covered a tremendous amount of ground. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#286644) #
Prop Joe Maddon has a bit of a ring to it. 
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#286645) #
Gose is a joy to watch in the OF. He's about as good as i've seen out there.

Nice to see him rip that rbi single off a pretty good lefty, too.
scottt - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#286646) #
Is that a restaurant?
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#286647) #
Gibby must have been bored - brings rogers in just to make things interesting.

Gah.
scottt - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#286648) #
Rogers hadn't pitched in a week. Gibby has to manufacture innings for him.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#286649) #
I have no idea why or how rogers is still on this team.

He is unplayable.
scottt - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#286650) #
He really should be starting at AAA somewhere. Probably not Buffalo.
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#286651) #
Not a fan of letting Rogers create a mess that the rest of the 'pen has to try to clean up. Not a great idea in Fenway.
Oceanbound - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#286652) #
Not Gibbons' fault. If you're on a major league roster and can't even be trusted to pitch in a 6-1 game in the 8th inning, you shouldn't be on the roster at all.
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#286653) #
Things would be a lot less complicated if the Jays had shown a bit more patience with Jesse Chavez in 2012.
scottt - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#286654) #
It was against the bottom of the order too, although, that's kinda of misleading on that lineup.
scottt - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#286655) #
I was really happy with Gibby's use of the bench.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#286656) #
Rogers gets used in only the most extreme low leverage situations, and still has a 6.97era and 5.36fip. And we have unbelievably still given him over twenty innings, a month and a half into the season.

With the team usually carrying an 8man pen, he remains the permanent 8man, as every random callup is instantly used in higher leverage situations than him.

He has no business being here. It's embarassing.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#286657) #
Thankfully cerberus (cecil/delabar and especially janssen) are vicious, and save the day again.

Orioles have 3 more outs left to come back against the pirates...i can taste first place.
scottt - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#286658) #
That's a huge win.
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#286659) #
Janssen and his 87 MPH fastballs are money. Chance to make it 5-1 on the road trip tomorrow.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#286660) #
Orioles lose.

First place, baby.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#286661) #
Tied First Place, and in sole possession of 2nd Wild Card berth, life is good.

Who closes tomorrow if Bullpen doesn't hold big lead for Buehrle?
PeteMoss - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#286662) #
Chavez just found the right park for him to pitch in. He gave up home runs at a rate at an absurd level in Toronto. He always had decent k/bb rates.
PeteMoss - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#286663) #
The fear the Jays have of losing some of these relievers on waivers is ridiculous. Is there a chance that Rogers could figure it out and become a reasonable set-up man somewhere? Yes. But the odds are he's just going to keep being what he's been for every year except that one year in Cleveland - a borderline bullpen guy.
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 21 2014 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#286664) #
Actually, that's incorrect. Both last year and this year, Chavez has been better on the road than in Oakland (he was significantly better on the road in 2013). For whatever reason, he's one of those late-blooming SPs, having got untracked in his age-29 and age-30 seasons.

In 2012, he struggled over 21.2 IP and the Jays let him go. It happens. Now the A's are soaring, thanks in no small part to Chavez and Kazmir (whom the Jays could have signed last off-season).
Magpie - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 12:32 AM EDT (#286665) #
Chavez and Kazmir. The lesson, as always: nobody knows anything.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 07:03 AM EDT (#286666) #
It's interesting that Chavez and Kazmir are almost exactly the same age. It could be that the A's are looking for late-blooming (age 29/30), undervalued SPs. Guys who still have potential/stuff and have gained valuable experience, but who have something of a checkered history.

Either that, or the A's are homing in on pitchers with five-letter, one-syllable first names and six-letter, two-syllable last names with an "a" and a "z" in them.
Jonny German - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 07:28 AM EDT (#286667) #
It could be that the A's are looking for late-blooming (age 29/30), undervalued SPs.

I'm struggling to see how a guy who had 47 major league wins through age 24 could be described as "late-blooming".
greenfrog - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 07:51 AM EDT (#286668) #
Sorry to hear about your struggles.

Re-blooming after a couple of years in the tank?
Thomas - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 07:57 AM EDT (#286669) #
I don't think the nobody knows anything comment is particularly true for Kazmir. Sure, nobody knew he was capable of a resurgence with Cleveland last year, but he was a perfectly fine player to give a low-risk tryout to from the Indians point of view. The Jays have done similar things before and while I don't fault them for not getting Kazmir specifically and while nobody knew Kazmir would make this strong a comeback, Cleveland made a reasonable move with limited risk and was rewarded.

As for Kazmir 2014, there were several people on this site and across the internet suggesting the Jays (and other teams) should have been in on Kazmir at and around the price he signed for (admittedly the budgetary constraints were/are less clear, but assuming the Jays had the cash...).
Mike Green - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 08:22 AM EDT (#286670) #
Chavez' major league xFIP 2008-2014: 4.20, 4.42, 4.72, 4.04, 3.97, 3.83, 3.11.  For his major league career, he has an xFIP of 4.06 and an ERA of 4.91.  You put a guy like that in front of a good defence and with a lot of room in foul territory, he's a good bet to thrive.  His opposition BABIP this year is .258 (career .296). 
Mike Green - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#286671) #
So, who's available in the pen this afternoon?  I imagine that you'd give Janssen and Loup the day off.   Delabar threw 7 pitches on Tuesday and 1 pitch last night.  I guess he's available for a few batters.  Same with Cecil.  Rasmussen is available.  McGowan could probably go an inning.  If the club has settled on Hendriks, then I guess Redmond is your long guy today. 
AWeb - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#286672) #
Arencibia has cleared waivers and sent to AAA (.133/.182/.233 this year in 66 PA). I think we all knew he stunk, but also all feared a random good year in a hitters park would make the Jays look bad for getting rid of him. Not so much I guess. since he was removed from the 40 man roster, I would be surprised if he made it back to the majors this year (Sept callup aside), or possibly ever.  
Chuck - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#286676) #
Arencibia has cleared waivers and sent to AAA

He is now no better than 4th on the team's depth chart, behind the injured Soto and scrubs Chirinos and Gimenez. And he's likely even behind AAA catcher Nicholas at this point as well.

Someone somewhere may give him another shot, looking to tap the power potential. But absent the defensive rep, he's likely not looking at a Barajas-like prolonged career as a backup. He may be done by the time he's 30.

Ryan Day - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#286677) #
JPA will be back. The offensive bar for catchers is pretty low, his power potential will be tempting, and his next contract will likely be close to the MLB minimum. He may have to settle for a minor league contract, but he'll pound a few homers in AAA and earn a callup.
whiterasta80 - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#286678) #
I'm starting to believe that Esmil is only on this team because of his last name. Is that a thing?
Chuck - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#286681) #
Maybe Esmil is a sort of subliminal sacrifical lamb. All hostilities held be the populace towards Rogers the corporation can instead be misdirected towards Rogers the pitcher. Maybe the illuminati's grand plan is for Rogers to continue to pitch poorly, to continue attracting everyone's scorn.
Jonny German - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#286686) #
I think it's worth remembering that Arencibia was a first round pick, and that he won a AAA MVP. He's not without talent.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#286687) #
It wouldn't shock me if he improves one part of his game at some point and has another part to his career.  I do think that many teams will be turned off the package that he brings as a catcher, and that he's more likely to morph into a first baseman/DH type.  He'll have to improve his plate control, but perhaps if he sheds the tools of ignorance he can do so.
uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#286688) #
He also had a .700+opa his first two years, and rates well on most defensive metrics.
PeterG - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#286690) #
Don't know if it is appropriate to mention here but am coming to TO from Ottawa tomorrow and by a quirk of fate have ended up with 2 sets of tickets for each game of Oakland series. If anyone wants 500 level seats( 3 available) behind home plate at a discount, pls get in touch.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#286692) #
He also had a .700+opa his first two years, and rates well on most defensive metrics.

The defensive metrics for catchers are fairly primitive.  He is a -4 DRS for his career.  The publicly available framing metrics are a bit unsatisfactory, and Arencibia would be a classic example.  Subjectively, he is a poor framer and yet some years he scored well.  I don't think that many teams will be fooled. His pitch-calling is notoriously bad; you can see the difference in Buehrle between the start of last year and the start of this year.  Arencibia does have a very good arm, but his pitch-handling is poor enough that his CS rates for his career are actually a bit below average.

And quoting ops for a player like Arencibia?  ZIPS has him projected for the rest of 2014 at .218/.262/.410.  That's an OPS of .672 which would normally be perfectly acceptable for a starting catcher, but with that OBP/SLUG split is not.  It amounts to a 77 wRC+ which is fine for a backup catcher with defensive skills.
John Northey - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#286693) #
FYI: with the Jays in first on May 21st (counting record at end of day) that is the latest since 2009 they have been in first (May 23rd then).  In 2000 they lead on July 14th (34-37 after that) so that will be the next target should they hold this 1st place standing for a couple more days.

Kind of depressing....only once in the 2000's have the Jays been in first after the month of May. Lets hope this year is the 2nd time.

uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#286694) #
Buehrle was great last year after his awful start.

First 2gs: 4.8ip/gs, 10.24era
Last 31gs: 6.3ip/gs, 3.85era

First 7gs: 5.9ip/gs, 7.02era
Last 26gs: 6.3ip/gs, 3.43era

and yeah it was slg heavy but a .720ops for a sophomore cather is more than good, and showed real potential to be a solid .750+ops catcher in time.

Yeah, he fell apart last year and may never get it back but the guy got off to a pretty promising start to his career, ans it wouldn't shock me to see him adjust and come back.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#286698) #
Pillar DHs today while Gose is in CF facing Lester.  Interesting.  I don't know why you wouldn't put Pillar in RF and let Bautista DH for a day.
Chuck - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#286699) #
I am guessing that Gibbons wants the option to switch Pillar out for Lind at the first sign of a RH reliever.
John Northey - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#286700) #
I'd figure it is Bautista wanting to be in the field. Odds are the Jays let Bautista decide these things, at least as long as he keeps hitting for a 150+ OPS+.

Current Jays with 150+ OPS+ (star level): Francisco, Bautista, Lind, Gose (just 28 PA). 
120+ OPS+ (ie: good enough to be a regular anywhere): Encarnacion, Cabrera, Thole, Tollenson
90-110 range (decent but nothing to write home about): Rasmus, Reyes, Kratz
70-80 range (uh oh): Navarro, Lawrie
Below 0: Pillar (-3) who has 2 hits, which ties him with what Sierra did in under 1/2 the PA.

Drew Hutchison has the best OPS+ at 270 by going 2 for 3 when he got a chance (2 singles plus a K).
Jonny German - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#286701) #
The benefit I can think of with Pillar DHing is that you have the ability to pinch hit for him. If he was in the field you couldn't, unless you were willing to lose the DH spot by sending Bautista out in the field, or seriously weaken the defence with a Tolleson - Lawrie - Francisco shuffle.

Not sure if it's a big enough benefit to outweigh some rest for Bautista (and better RF defence?), but it is something.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#286703) #
Thanks, gentlemen.  That does make sense.
uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#286704) #
Not easy to describe just how good it feels to homer the sox to death in fenway.
uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#286705) #
4 runs on 4 outs against one of the best pitchers in mlb so far this year.

Impressive.
uglyone - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#286706) #
So yeah, singling them to death feels almost as good, too.
Chuck - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#286707) #
Interesting. I don't know why you wouldn't put Pillar in RF and let Bautista DH for a day.

Tabler said this same thing during the broadcast and Gibbons told him that he wanted to be able to pinch-hit for Pillar.

Total team effort in the 2nd inning. Bautista and Encarnacion each singled to right. Lawrie's hustle on a potential, but not quite, DP ball accounted for a run. Cabrera walked on a pitch that was a ball but one he'd more typically swing at. Pillar's single was a chopper off the plate that bounced a mile high (if he can do this every time, I'll lay off him).

Chuck - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#286708) #
Two innings down and Lester's pitch count is only 6 higher than Buehrle's.
sam - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#286710) #
Look at Eddie run there! Boy, that was nice to see.
Chuck - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#286711) #
It's a good thing for Boegarts that he's hitting (284/380/419). On defense, he's got his head up is ass.
whiterasta80 - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#286712) #
There were a few people who were bullish on Buerhle this off-season but I don't recall anyone saying that he might earn his full salary.

Now he might do it in half a season.
grjas - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#286713) #
Yeah but he's weak against the ALE teams...(?)
grjas - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#286714) #
What I love about Beuhrle is his demeanour. Never gets rattled. Never gets too high or low, or criticizes teammates or umpires. Great role model for the young pitchers.
Gerry - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#286715) #
I have to say Buehrle has really grown on me. He came here under bad circumstances, he thought he had signed up for four years in Miami, and then he gets traded. He has to live apart from his family because of the pitbull issue. He has never complained, never made a big issue of it.

In addition he never watches video, he doesn't care about the hitters, he doesn't shake off the catcher. He never throws between starts, if the Jays don't take batting practice he doesn't leave the clubhouse. He just shows up every five days, works for 2-3 hours and then sits back until he has to do it again. He is one of a kind.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#286717) #
works for 2-3 hours

It would be under 2 hours if opposition batters weren't constantly calling time. Buehrle has been great.

John Lott confirms that Hendriks gets the start tomorrow night against Kazmir.  Apparently they are trying to split up Buehrle and Dickey on the theory that Dickey might go 7 good innings sometime soon.  In this case, it's much more likely to happen if the club gives him 4 or 5 runs of support.  He's throwing a lot of 3-1 knuckleballs because he's afraid of giving up the long ball in a close game and this is leading to more walks. 
scottt - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#286719) #
He's on a pace for 27 wins. That would be something.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, May 22 2014 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#286720) #
Blue Jays make their 21st Roster Move, bringing up Liam Hendricks. The corresponding is...?

Almost every team in Baseball is having issues. This is a good time to take advantage of the "walking wounded".
Dave Till - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 07:29 AM EDT (#286730) #
Fun facts:
  • The last time the Blue Jays were four games over .500 was June 6, 2012, when they were 30-26. (Brandon Morrow had just thrown a 2-hit shutout at the White Sox. Wistful sigh.) In 2013, the best they managed was 2 games over.
  • The last time the Blue Jays were in sole possession of first place in the AL East (unless you count opening day 2012) was April 15, 2010. The last time the Jays were in first place in a month other than April was May 23, 2009. That was a whole other decade. We have suffered greatly in these parts.
Of course, the old adage holds true: a team is never as good as it looks when it is on a winning streak, or as bad as it looks when it is struggling. (Three weeks ago, the Jays were 13-17 and being beaten up by the Pittsburgh Pirates.) But I suppose, hesitantly, that there are grounds for optimism, especially given that the AL East is struggling mightily - the Jays are the only club in the division that has scored more runs than it has allowed (even though they have the worst pitching in the division). New York has a case of the olds, Tampa Bay has a case of the ouchies, Boston has a terminal case of the Farrells, and Baltimore is, well, Baltimore.

This is unfashionable to say, but: I think that John Gibbons has done a superlative job managing this roster. It started last year, when he was the first manager to actually follow the recommendations of 318 sabermetricians and start platooning Adam Lind, already. He seems to have solved the second base problem by implementing a complex platoon of Tolleson and Francisco: Lawrie plays second against righties to get Francisco in the lineup, and moves to third against lefties or in the late innings of close games. Gibbons is also managing the bullpen well: nobody has gotten hurt, and pitchers seem to be in good matchups for them a lot of the time. All of this despite losing Janssen, Reyes, Lind, Rasmus, Lawrie, Morrow, and Izturis for varying periods of time. The difference between him and Farrell is clearly noticeable, at least to me.

Dave Till - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 07:31 AM EDT (#286731) #
Small correction to my previous post: somebody in the bullpen has gotten hurt, as Santos was out. I didn't think of this, because (a) Santos always gets hurt, and (b) I'm not sure that his being out actually hurts the team.
Mike Green - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 08:42 AM EDT (#286733) #
The Blue Jays are in first place because all of the other teams in the division have sucked.  I had them at 84 wins before the season, and that's still what they look like to me.  What frustrated me about management's lack of action was not that the team was hopeless and needed help, but that they were a team in a division where 90 wins could very well be enough and they were reasonably close.  I was too harsh on Anthopoulos though.  The low-level acquisitions of Francisco and Hendriks were good, and he may have been completely hamstrung (unexpectedly) by ownership. 

It wouldn't surprise me if Goins was back fairly soon.  He's hitting much better in Buffalo, particularly against RHP, and a simple platoon with Tolleson here would have a lot of advantages.  A middle infield set-up of Reyes, Goins, Tolleson is good.  A corner IF/DH set up of Lawrie, Encarnacion, Lind, Francisco is good.  You've got good position coverage throughout the infield with two players on the bench.  I know that Francisco has been better that Goins so far in a more demanding role, but in the long run, this is not likely to work out. 

China fan - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#286734) #
".... I had them at 84 wins before the season, and that's still what they look like to me..."

But the 84-win projection is probably outdated because the Jays have been so strong in May.  Basically they had a slow April and a rapid acceleration in May.  On average that might be 84 wins, but don't you have to give additional weight to the most recent performances, rather than weighing April as equal to May?  To get back to your 84-win projection, you have to assume that May is a fluke and the team will revert to something worse soon.  That might be true -- anything could be true -- but I personally think the recent performances have to count for something a bit more than the slow start.  To me, it's more logical to suggest that the Jays performance of the past 3 weeks is a little closer to their natural level than their bullpen collapses of April -- especially now that the bullpen has been strengthened so much with Janssen and McGowan back.


Mike Green - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#286735) #
The big thing is that Bautista has played every game so far, and at the performance level of 2010-2011.  The Jays have had injuries but they have not been ones that really take a bite out of a club's season (unlike in the last few years).  Maybe this is the Jays' year to get lucky.

David Laurilia has an excellent interview on fangraphs with Pedro Martinez on the art and science of pitching.

uglyone - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#286737) #
For the record, the jays are playing at an 88 win pace, and that is perfectly supported by an 88 win pythagorean projected.

And that's with them wasting one helluva lot of at bats and innings on the likes of goins/diaz and rogers/jeffress.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#286738) #
"The Jays have had injuries but they have not been ones that really take a bite out of a club's season"

Thing is, DLing your starting SS, CF, DH, 2B, #3SP, CLoser, and backup closer in the first quarter of the season probably SHOULD take a bite out of your season.

The fact that it hasn't is probably a testament to the quality of the team.
Ryan Day - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#286739) #
The crazy thing about Buehrle is that he's not giving up any home runs - yesterday was just his second of the season, good for 0.3/9. That's far better than his previous career high of 0.7, and his career rate of 1.0. It's good for 2nd in the AL, ahead of guys like Verlander, Hernandez, and Darvish.

It's amazing that a guy who barely tops 85mph can do that. I know it's still early, and he's probably due for a few rough starts, but it's impressive.
Chuck - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#286740) #
And that's with them wasting one helluva lot of at bats and innings on the likes of goins/diaz and rogers/jeffress.

If you're going to cite the bad (wasted AB and IP), which is fair, you're going to have to also cite the good, which figures to show an inevitable regression. Buehrle has never pitched this well in his life. Francisco and Lind have OPSs well over .900. Bautista (as Mike pointed out) has both played every day and is hitting like his peak self. Cabrera is hitting closer to his SF self than the KC version we all would have been happy with. Yes, Lawrie and Reyes have underperformed, but this is partly mitigated by Thole, Tolleson and Gose overperforming.

China fan - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#286741) #
As I argued in the other thread, the regression might happen, but it might not be a very substantial regression, because almost all of the top performers are within the range of some of their previous performances.  In other words, they've had good seasons like this before.  Sure, most of them didn't perform this well in 2013, but they've had previous seasons that were just as good as what they're doing now.  (Buehrle might be the only exception, but he's had lots of good seasons before, even if not quite as good as this one.)  So I don't see it as necessarily inevitable that they'll all decline.   And if Francisco or Bautista does decline, it could be offset by an improvement from Lawrie or Reyes.

Speaking more generally: the Jays are due for a season where several of their players return to their historical peaks.  It happens to other teams, why not the Jays?

Mike Green - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#286742) #
I agree that overall this club has not been performing much ahead of reasonable expectations- it's a matter of about 4 wins per season well within the variance that happens season to season. 

Here's a tale of two relief pitchers on the same club-
A- 9.15 K/9, 3.05 W/9, 2.18 HR/9, 17.2% HR/FB, .371 BABIP, 15.1% LD rate
B- 8.24 K/9, 4.24 W/9, 0.92 HR/9, 10.0% HR/FB, 220 BABIP, 22% LD rate

Who is pitching better?  Who is likely to be better for the remainder of the season?  Who are they?

Chuck - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#286743) #
the Jays are due for a season where several of their players return to their historical peaks. It happens to other teams, why not the Jays?

I had not factored cosmic justice into my assessment. That would change the calculus.

Richard S.S. - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#286744) #
Does anyone remember Baltimore's most recent fairy tale season? Just proves the most unlikely things happen. It just might even happen to Toronto.
Dave Till - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#286745) #

What frustrated me about management's lack of action was not that the team was hopeless and needed help, but that they were a team in a division where 90 wins could very well be enough and they were reasonably close. I was too harsh on Anthopoulos though. The low-level acquisitions of Francisco and Hendriks were good, and he may have been completely hamstrung (unexpectedly) by ownership.

I also wonder whether the Jays just have difficulty attracting top-tier free agents because of (a) the artificial turf, (b) Canada being a foreign country and all, and (c) the AL East being a historically tough division (before this year). I seem to recall Paul Beeston saying once that free agents just don't want to go here. As I understand it, Erwin Santana was about to sign here, but fled to the more pitcher-friendly environment of Atlanta when given the opportunity.

When I thought about it, the free agent signings throughout the Jays' history can be divided into the following groups:

  • 1992-1993 bandwagon jumpers: Players who wanted a ring, and thought (correctly) that they could get one in Toronto. This group includes Jack Morris, Paul Molitor, and Dave Stewart.
  • Players signing here because they weren't in demand elsewhere. This group includes Winfield (who arrived cheap because he was 41), what was left of Frank Thomas, Melky Cabrera, and a bunch of others who left little mark (Lance Parrish, Dave Parker, Vlad as a minor leaguer, etc.).
  • Overpaid relief pitchers: Randy Myers, B. J. Ryan. (And Bill Caudill, though he was a trade acquisition before being signed.)
  • Players who received out clauses: Roger Clemens, A. J. Burnett.
  • Wishful thinking from the Gord Ash era: Otis Nixon, Erik Hanson.

I've probably missed a free agent or two, but that's most of the big names I can think of. Who did I miss?

Also: for the Jays to be more active signing big contracts, they (and we) will have to accept more spoilage. At present, the Jays aren't paying huge sums of money to players who are not playing for them. (The Angels are still paying for Vernon Wells this year.) If ownership wants flags to fly in Toronto, they might have to accept more losses. It's not my money, so I can't make that choice for them; as a fan, I would be happy if they spent more money, obviously.

Dave Till - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#286746) #
In my list of free agents, I forgot one: Jose Canseco. He deserves to be in a class of his own, for many reasons.
Mike Green - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#286747) #
The Blue Jays acquired Navarro and Kratz for not very much to upgrade from replacement level catching to average catching.  It didn't cost a huge amount.  I was hoping that they would do the same at the either (or both) of the second base/middle or back-end starting pitching slots.  At this level of talent, the Blue Jays and all other clubs in the majors are much less limited by player preferences than at the top level.  It may be that spending another $5-$10 million per year was out of the question and that was the problem.


hypobole - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#286748) #
Dave, you hinted at one of the Jays biggest problems in landing FA's but did not list it and that is the Rogers Centre. Other than Coors Field, is there a worse destination for a pitcher, when all the other points you did mention are factored in?

Oceanbound - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#286749) #
The rope ran out for Rogers, he's been D'd FA.
Dave Till - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#286750) #

The Blue Jays acquired Navarro and Kratz for not very much to upgrade from replacement level catching to average catching. It didn't cost a huge amount. I was hoping that they would do the same at the either (or both) of the second base/middle or back-end starting pitching slots.

Actually, they upgraded from J.P. Arencibia to average catching - sadly, JPA was below replacement level. Some of the Jays' 2014 improvement, both offensive and defensive, is from replacing him with other catchers.

I agree with you that AA could have done a better job of finding a replacement second baseman - but perhaps he was still hoping that Maicer Izturis would step up. I'm not sure that back end starters are easy to find without shelling out big cash, though. AA's approach seems to be to grab as many D-level starters as he can and hope to upgrade one of them to 4th or 5th starter level - Hendriks is the latest one.

Hodgie - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#286751) #
For what it is worth, Fangraphs currently has the Jays as the projected favourites to win the division when taking into account both their cummulative and most recent performance.

Mike Green - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#286752) #
The rope ran out for Rogers, he's been D'd FA.

So, player A above was Esmil Rogers.  Player B was Steve Delabar.  And yes, I think that Delabar will be better the rest of the year, but not by much (if someone gives Rogers a chance).  I am not saying that it was the wrong thing to DFA Rogers- it's a numbers game and I will be happy if we don't see an 8 man pen again.
electric carrot - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#286753) #
I, for one, hope Rogers is back.  I think he's had a lot of bad luck.  I don't expect he will be back though. This team needs lots of guys who can sub into the starter role when needed.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#286754) #
"If you're going to cite the bad (wasted AB and IP), which is fair, you're going to have to also cite the good"

I listed those names in parti ular because i view those as "unforced errors".

I have no problem with including the poor performances of getz, sierra, kawasaki, wagner, stroman....because thise guys all earned their shots as legit organizational depth players.

The four i mentioned - goins, diaz, rogers, jeffress - did nothing to earn a spot on this team. They did nothing to deserve even being one of the primary injury replacements.

These guys ate up a lot of playing time for reasons other than performance. These were unforced errors by management.

To be fair, they weren't overly stubborn with three of them at keast, and now that rogers is finally gone i think we can look forward the rest of the year of having only players who have earned a shot getting playing time. And even if some suck going forward that will be a legit part of team performance, imo, unlike the undeserved opportunities these four got.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#286755) #
"Bautista (as Mike pointed out) has both played every day and is hitting like his peak self. "

I know we've been battered by injuries the last decade but no matter what, i will never view a player without any chronic injury being able to just stay healthy as some sort of lucky positive development.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#286756) #
"I, for one, hope Rogers is back. I think he's had a lot of bad luck. "

When that bad luck has lasted his entire career, and he's now 28....it's probably not luck.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#286757) #
"So, player A above was Esmil Rogers. Player B was Steve Delabar."

Thing is, we have bigger samples...their total careers as RP:

Delabar (30): 151.1ip, 3.45era, 3.62fip, 3.40xfip
Rogers (28): 175.1ip, 5.60era, 4.03fip, 3.92xfip

Blue Jay career as RP:

Delabar (30): 107.2ip, 3.26era, 3.03fip, 3.39xfip
Rogers (28): 51.2ip, 5.40era, 5.09fip, 4.64xfip
TangledUpInBlue - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#286758) #
When that bad luck has lasted his entire career, and he's now 28....it's probably not luck.

I was going to disagree with you here, a little, by saying that it's not really fair to include his Coors Field years (if, by "bad luck," what we're all really talking about is the discrepancy between ERA and xFIP). But then I looked at his years with the Rockies and even there, on the road, his ERA was higher than his xFIP. Same, of course, with the Blue Jays. In Cleveland, on the other hand, during his one good year as a reliever, his ERA and xFIP were about the same. So on the whole, you might be right, Uglyone, but I'd still say he's probably been unlucky and probably has a better chance to succeed than a lot of people think. But it's possible I'm sticking too stubbornly to xFIP as a predictor.
electric carrot - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#286759) #
But it's possible I'm sticking too stubbornly to xFIP as a predictor.

xFIP is part of it. The other part that makes me think Rogers is better than career stats show is that he has streaks where he really seems to put it together and then alternate times when he's really rotten. Furthermore, he's been back and forth a some in terms of his role on the team and I think consistency can help your career numbers.  A period of adjustment is normal when you transition.  I think he's one of those pitchers who will eventually put it all together.
Richard S.S. - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#286761) #
When A.A. signed Navarro he said, "He's making what J.P. would have made in Arbitration this year." Little did I know it signalled crushing Budget constraints.

Acquiring Erik Kratz and Rob Rasmussen for out-of-options Brad Lincoln was a housekeeping move at the time it happened. Considering Brad didn't have a spot on this team, I thought it was a nice pickup (not a steal).
Mike Green - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#286762) #
One good thing about the decision to DFA Rogers.  It suggests that Anthopoulos is not trying to cover his behind for the Gomes trade by letting a more useful player go to keep giving Rogers chances.  The trade was a mistake, but it's done now. 
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#286763) #
To get a better idea what jays are over or under achieving, let's compare them with the preseason ZIPS projections. I'll list the zips first and the actual performance second. I'll just use OPS and ERA for a quick comp:



Bautista: .906 --- .988 (+.082)
En'cion: .883 ---- .891 (+.008)
Lind: .778 ------- .937 (+.159)
Rasmus: .777 ----- .755 (-.022)
Reyes: .769 ------ .712 (-.057)
Lawrie: .762 ----- .674 (-.088)
Cabrera: .761 ---- .883 (+.122)
Francisco: .759 -- .987 (+.228)
Navarro: .745 ---- .636 (-.109)

Sierra: .692 ----- .145 (-.547)
Pillar: .660 ----- .611 (-.049)
Gose: .659 ------- .919 (+.260)

Izturis: .658 ---- .639 (-.019)
Tolleson: .641 --- .828 (+.187)
Goins: .618 ------ .420 (-.198)
Getz: .613 ------- .422 (-.191)
Diaz: .571 ------- .440 (-.131)

Kratz: .717 ------ .730 (+.013)
Thole: .682 ------ .827 (+.145)


So the offense is beating expectations, but not by a huge amount. Really, overall, the overachievment comes down to one Juan Francisco, as the over and under achievements pretty much balance out otherwise.



Morrow: 3.87 ---- 5.93 (-2.06)
Dickey: 4.00 ---- 4.20 (-0.20)
Buehrle: 4.32 --- 2.16 (+2.16)
Hutch: 4.55 ----- 3.45 (+1.10)
Happ: 4.68 ------ 4.37 (+0.31)
McG*: 4.29 ------ 4.60 (-0.31)

* - wasn't actually projected to make any starts

The Morrow implosion surprisingly balances Buehrle's hot streak out for the most part.

But still the starting rotation has overachieved, sorta kinda. That Hutch preseason projection always did look wacky to me. I don't see so much him overachieving as him being underrated.



Janssen: 3.04 ----- 0.00 (+3.04)
Cecil: 3.27 ------- 4.12 (-0.85)
Santos: 3.38 ------ 9.00 (-5.62)
Loup: 3.71 -------- 3.43 (+0.28)
Delabar: 3.90 ----- 3.20 (+0.70)
Wagner: 4.12 ------ 8.10 (-3.98)
Stroman*: 4.41 ---- 12.79 (-8.38)
Jeffress: 4.44 ---- 10.80 (-6.36)
Rogers: 4.82 ------ 6.97 (-2.15)
Redmond*: 5.49 ---- 3.38 (+2.11)
Jenkins*: 6.00 ---- 9.00 (-3.00)
Rasmussen*: 6.46 -- 0.00 (+6.47)

the bullpen has underachieved, but not really due to the regulars. Even though santos blew up the bugges issue here is that near every one of the depth guys has been awful too.



Looking up and down the lineup, there's actually a pretty good balance of over and under achievers amongst the guys we expected to be on the roster.

What pushes the roster over the edge into overachievement, imo, are two guys who most people didn't consider in their preseason projections - Drew Hutchison and Juan Francisco.

Those two have kind of changed the equation this year all by themselves.

Of course, i don't really think Juan can keep it up....but i'm very bullish on Hutch.

* - projected mostly as an SP
John Northey - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#286764) #
Agreed Mike - good to see AA go with 'sunk costs' rather than trying to justify a poor decision from the past.

Rogers right now is no better than probably a half dozen options the Jays have.  Right now for the pen we have...
Active Roster: Janssen, Cecil, Delabar, Loup, McGowan, Rasmussen, Redmond
40 Man: Wagner plus starters Drabek, McGuire, Nolin, Stroman
DL: Morrow, Santos
In AAA: Korecky (0.31 ERA in 28 2/3 IP 2.2 BB/9 9.4 K/9 0.3 HR/9), Jenkins (3.47 ERA, 2 starts 9 relief, 1.5 BB/9 6.9 K/9 0.8 HR/9), and others.

There really is no shortage of guys who can fill the role Rogers had here.  To keep a roster slot for a guy who just couldn't keep the ball in the park this year was not the best of ideas.  Rogers also wasn't even slightly trusted by Gibbons as he has one appearance with a leverage over 0.6 (1 IP 2 H 0 R 1 BB, 3 run lead...he made it scary).  He had 2 around the 0.50 mark and both times he allowed 3 runs.  He never came into a game where the Jays were within 1 run either way, never trusted with a lead of less than 3 runs (just once by 3, rest were 4+).  Clearly he was the 8th guy in an 8 man pen and not likely to change anytime soon.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#286765) #
"I was going to disagree with you here, a little, by saying that it's not really fair to include his Coors Field years (if, by "bad luck," what we're all really talking about is the discrepancy between ERA and xFIP). But then I looked at his years with the Rockies and even there, on the road, his ERA was higher than his xFIP. Same, of course, with the Blue Jays. In Cleveland, on the other hand, during his one good year as a reliever, his ERA and xFIP were about the same. So on the whole, you might be right, Uglyone, but I'd still say he's probably been unlucky and probably has a better chance to succeed than a lot of people think. But it's possible I'm sticking too stubbornly to xFIP as a predictor."



I saw a nifty chart a couple years back which plotted the predictive values of era, fip, and xfip against each other as IP accumulated.

Unsurprisingly at the start, with small sample IP, the fippy numbers were far more predictive than ERA. But as the IP increased, the lines on the chart converged until after a certain number IP, ERA actually took over as the better predictor. And it wasn't a massive amount of IP needed, either.

Some pitchers do have a true talent that over or under achieves their fippy numbers - i.e, they consistently give up wither weaker or stronger than normal contsct quality - its just relatively rare and impossible to see in small samples.

But when it happens year after year after year you realize that Buehrles and Dickeys should be expected to outperform their fippy numbers, while the morrows and rogers should be expected to underperform theirs.

Morrow's a great example of how fippy numbers overrate a pretty terrible pitcher. And the best part of his example is that when he had that breakout half season a couple of years back, we all said "finally, his era is getting in line with his great peripherals", but when you look back on that season now you can see that that was actually the fluke season based on an unsustainably low ~.250ish babip. That one season where it seemed his bad luck had finally ended was actually just some flukish good luck.

Most pitchers' eras lineup with their fips over the longrun, but when pitchers sustsin a discrepancy between them for long enough, that's probably indicating a true talent issue.
hypobole - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#286766) #
It was obvious Rogers had to go, but I wouldn't write him off either. Somewhere there is a pitching coach that thinks he can fix him. It's not rare that previously unsuccessful live arms are turned into useful major league pitchers.
China fan - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#286768) #
"....The four i mentioned - goins, diaz, rogers, jeffress - did nothing to earn a spot on this team.... These guys ate up a lot of playing time for reasons other than performance. These were unforced errors by management."

Mostly they ate up playing time in a mop-up role, as the 8th man in the bullpen, in low-leverage situations, or as bench players (except Goins) or injury replacements (Diaz).  They did not cost the Jays a single loss.  They allowed the regulars to take some downtime, in meaningless situations.  As the 8th man in the bullpen, Rogers and Jeffress did not appear in a single save situation.  The 24 innings that they pitched would have otherwise had to be pitched by another pitcher, thereby preventing those other pitchers from being available in higher-leverage situations.

Goins is the exception to this, since he was a starting player, rather than an 8th reliever or bench guy.  But at the same time, you can't say that he got playing time for reasons other than performance.  The Jays thought that his hitting would be adequate and his defence would be stellar.  They were half-right.  But he didn't stay on the time because of a lack of options -- he was on the team because the Jays (mistakenly) thought he would be adequate.
Mike Green - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#286769) #
Two more lefties scheduled to face the Jays this weekend.  The Jays do hit somewhat better against RHP, but it's a better defensive lineup against LHP.  I am glad that Lawrie will be back at third base tonight with Hendriks on the mound.
Mike Green - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#286770) #
Friday afternoon game.  What will the attendance be tonight?  Two weeks ago, they played the Angels on Friday night and drew 21K.  My guess: 28K. 
TangledUpInBlue - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#286771) #
Morrow's a great example of how fippy numbers overrate a pretty terrible pitcher. And the best part of his example is that when he had that breakout half season a couple of years back…

Right, he over-performed his FIP/xFIP that year (2012), but the result of that is his career ERA, FIP, and xFIP aren't that out of whack. Over 730 IP, he has a 4.28 ERA, 3.94 FIP, and a 4.13 xFIP. Take any of those numbers and you can't say he's terrible. He'd be good enough for anyone's rotation with those numbers (never mind his potential for so much more) if he could just stay healthy.
92-93 - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#286772) #
For a team obsessed with keeping any semblance of value around, I'm confused by DFAing Esmil Rogers so Rob Rasmussen can stay on the roster. This move is an unnecessary mistake.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#286774) #
Heh @92-93. They finally ditch the cause of the 8 man pen and you still don't like it!

Tangled, i'm talking of Morrow as an SP: 5.7ip/gs, 4.40era. Just not good, despite his 3.89fip and 3.90xfip.
Mike Green - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#286775) #
Presumably the club decided that it would be better off with a LOOGY in the pen rather than a second long man.  At this point, they've got Redmond, McGowan, Delabar and Janssen from the right, and Rasmussen, Loup and Cecil from the left.  Rasmussen was pretty deadly against LHP in a relief role in Buffalo this year.
92-93 - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#286777) #
I don't see the contradiction in the viewpoints. I'm happy the team isn't sticking with an 8 man bullpen now that Hendriks was added to the 25-man roster, but I don't see the purpose of losing Rogers just so you can keep Rasmussen around.
Ryan Day - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#286778) #
What are the odds of Rasmussen sticking on the roster for more than a few days? I'd expect Jenkins or Wagner to take his place soon; I think they can bring Jenkins back up this weekend, which may be necessary with Hendriks and Happ starting.

Gibbons didn't trust Rogers in anything resembling a close game, and even then he wasn't very useful. In the short term, a LOOGY you might use is more useful than a long reliever you're afraid of.
scottt - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#286779) #
Is another team going to pick up Rogers? He makes 1.8 M that's a tad expensive for a AAA team.

Normally, I'd expect Rogers to refuse to go to Buffalo and declare free agency, but he'd be losing money.
92-93 - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#286780) #
I agree that the move makes sense in the short term, I just question whether there's enough value there to mitigate long term concerns. I like Rogers' arm.
Lylemcr - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#286783) #
Let me ask everyone.  Who would you rather have Yan Gomes or Navarro?
christaylor - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#286786) #
I don't see the point of this question -- did AA make a mistake on Gomes. Yes. Do all GMs make mistakes? Yes. Moving on...
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#286788) #
"but I don't see the purpose of losing Rogers just so you can keep Rasmussen around."

the purpose would be to give a valuable roster spot to someone who has actually earned that spot, instead of giving it to someone just because of contract technicalities.
uglyone - Friday, May 23 2014 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#286789) #
And Rasmussen has piqued my interest anyways.

Before this year he put up sometimes very good numbers as a midget SP in the minors, then he moved to the 'pen this year for the first time and his K-rate skyrocketed up into double digits. He throws hard at 93-94 and has some offspeed stuff too....and he's only 25.

Not so sure this guy is just bullpen fodder. He might be around for a while.

and we still have Santos and Wagner as hard throwing righties to go to instead of rogers, while young Stilson has also turned things around and has been very good the last while.

Speaking of Stilson....

APR: 7.2ip, 4.7k/9, 8.2bb/9, 3.00whip, 9.39era
MAY: 11.2ip, 10.0k/9, 3.1bb/9, 0.94whip, 0.00era
bpoz - Saturday, May 24 2014 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#286805) #
Cleveland probably got lucky. Gomes only got 293ABs last year for them. This year he is getting more ABs. I have always felt that AL teams should use their DH in the minors to get extra ABs. Playing catcher has the wear and tear, so you can develop the hitting with ABs at the DH spot.
We were very rich in catchers a while ago, JPA, d'Arnaud, Jimminez & C Perez. Gomes was in this group, but as the #2 catcher. He has always hit for Avg, OBP & decent power in the minors.

D Chung & M Reeves are the Dunedin catchers. Chung is doing well & M Reeves was promoted from Vancouver, which is a big promotion. J Saez & S Nessy in Lansing. Both doing well and getting ABs as DH, which I like. Who knows how well they will turn out?
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