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Sigh. Old thread becomes unmanageable so time to start a new one. Come one, come all. Rule 5, 40 man roster, free agents, HOF voting begins, potential lock out, etc. Also Jerry Howarth is doing well.

Rule 5 is on December 8th and the Jays have one open slot. Angel Perdomo is viewed as likely to be taken but was in A ball (not A+ where a few Jays have jumped to the majors from, just A) with nearly 4 BB/9 last year. Steamer views him as likely to have an ERA over 5 if in the majors next year. Tyler Heineman is a catcher who is interesting. Good defense, switch hitter, good OBP, meh power and average. We'll see I guess.

HOF: 34 names on the list, including Tim Raines final shot (69.8% last year, so he has a good shot); Bagwell also in striking distance (71.6% last year); Trevor Hoffman is close too at 67.3%. Sammy Sosa could fall off the ballot (7% last year barely kept him on). New guys are Ivan Rodriguez (Canseco says he injected him), Manny Ramirez (caught multiple times), Vladimir Guerrero (one of the last Expos who will get serious consideration) and others (Jorge Posada, Tim Wakefield, Matt Stairs, Jason Varitek among others). Of course we still have Canadian Larry Walker on the ballot, and ex-Jays Jeff Kent, Fred McGriff. The PED crew in Clemens, Bonds, Sheffield, Manny, Sosa, and whoever the writers decide looked too buff this year. The closers in Hoffman, Lee Smith, Billy Wagner (all over 400). It'll be interesting as the ballots start flying in late December to see who has a good shot and who doesn't. I'm hoping Raines & Bagwell get in while Vlad does well. I've accepted the writers won't put Bonds & Clemens in.

Hopefully the players and owners aren't insane enough to have a lockout happen. They should continue with the old rules but minor modifications - an increase to when the payroll tax hits, 26th man on roster, no more compensation for free agents (or at least no more loss of a first round pick), international draft.

Via Howard Berger's Twitter feed: Great news! Jerry Howarth is home after prostate cancer surgery. Doctors say it was a "grand slam". Went "super well." Cancer localized.

So whats new and interesting out there today?
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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
whiterasta80 - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 07:04 AM EST (#335801) #
My Ballot:

Bagwell, rained, Hoffman, IRod, vladdy, walker, mcgriff, kent.

My hall is cheater free but I don't believe in convicting on circumstantial evidence.

whiterasta80 - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 07:05 AM EST (#335802) #
Rains. Autocorrect will get you every time.
mathesond - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 07:07 AM EST (#335803) #
Say, how about that Jean Segura for Taijuan Walker trade? Seattle's got some offence in their infield.
Jonny German - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 08:08 AM EST (#335804) #
It's a strange trade from the Diamondbacks perspective. They now have 7 or 8 starting pitchers and 0 middle infielders.
mathesond - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 08:47 AM EST (#335805) #
Well then, surely we can offer them Ryan Goins for something :)
uglyone - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 09:11 AM EST (#335806) #
seems like similar value in the trade but the dbacks get younger with perhaps more upside.

really comes down to what you think of segura - breakthrough performer or classic sell-high career year?
85bluejay - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 09:18 AM EST (#335807) #
Nice challenge trade between Arizona & Seattle - selling high on Segura - I like it a bit better for Arizona because I've always liked Walker (disappointed when the Jays took the safe Wojciechowski in 2010) but Haniger is an interesting gamble for Seattle.
Chuck - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 09:31 AM EST (#335808) #
Sigh. Old thread becomes unmanageable so time to start a new one.

It's not so bad if you choose the sort order "Newest First". Then the new stuff is all at the top and you don't need to scroll down down down.

Chuck - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 09:33 AM EST (#335809) #
Nice challenge trade between Arizona & Seattle

Not to be pedantic, but isn't a challenge trade one in which the players play the same position?

bpoz - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 10:46 AM EST (#335810) #
I will stay with the # 15 ranking of A Perdemo on our top 30 prospect list, just in case he becomes a Rule 5 pick that is later returned.
Hopefully he will not be picked at all. Our FO is willing to gamble, which I understand to some degree. The Phillies protected 11 players from the Rule 5 draft. Unless those players are quite good, their ML roster construction is going to be weak.

With only 1 space available on the 40 man roster our FO will have to get creative. Non Roster Invitees like G Floyd. Possibly the FO will part with 4th OF, Utility Infielder type players. Anyone not offered Arb will automatically be deleted from the 40 man roster.

I anticipate needing 4 roster spots for additions, like FAs and trades where we acquire a ML player for a low minors player.
Mike Green - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 10:49 AM EST (#335811) #

Rains. Autocorrect will get you every time.

It sure does.  You should get the new Tim Raines Hall of Fame app.  It auto-corrects the right way- it Raines hardest on the weekend, a hard Raines is gonna fall.

The Arizona/Seattle deal also has Marte and Haniger trading places.  It is certainly possible that one of them might end up being the key to the deal.  Here is Dave Cameron's take.  I'll add that I didn't like the look of Marte at the plate, but it's easy to be fooled watching a player just a few times.  He's definitely hit decently in the high minors at a young age.  I'd characterize the deal as present for future, and a reasonable one on both ends. 
Chuck - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 11:28 AM EST (#335812) #
After walking an impressive 24 times in 247 PA in 2015 (at age 21), Marte walked just 18 times in 466 PA in 2016. Pitchers figured something out. Can he make counter-adjustments in 2017?
Mike Green - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 12:06 PM EST (#335813) #
It seems to be mostly related to Marte swinging at more pitches out of the zone, and it seems to be fastballs. Perhaps it's about laying off the ball just out of the zone up.  It seems from the heat maps that up and away is his kryptonite. 
Mike Green - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 12:07 PM EST (#335814) #
He's also had a lot of difficulty with change-ups. 

These aren't the worst problems to have for a young hitter. 

Gerry - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 01:11 PM EST (#335815) #
Sean Rodriguez to sign with the Braves. Some had suggested Toronto would be interested in him.
uglyone - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 01:28 PM EST (#335816) #
~2x$6m. wouldn't have minded that.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 01:36 PM EST (#335817) #
Ross Atkins did remark earlier in the Season (GM Meetings) that Outfielder Trade prices were expensive. If asked for Sanchez or Stroman or Osuna, immediately name two top players/pitchers and ask that they be thrown into the Trade. Maybe something more reasonable ensues.

Right Field is the most important acquisition Ross Atkins can make, and if it must be part of a Blockbuster deal, then so be it.

Will it happen? I don't know.
SK in NJ - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 01:47 PM EST (#335818) #
I preferred Pearce to Rodriguez anyway, so still hoping the Jays and Pearce can work out a deal. Seems like a perfect fit for what the Jays need.
uglyone - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 01:51 PM EST (#335819) #
I don't see Pearce and Rodriguez in the same category though.

Pearce is much, much better.
85bluejay - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 02:14 PM EST (#335820) #
I am skeptical of Rodriguez offensive breakout in 2016 along with poor BB:K rate and am not enamoured by his defence - so I'm ok with the Jays not signing him.
SK in NJ - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 02:20 PM EST (#335821) #
If the Jays were interested in both of them, and it wasn't just a suggestion from Davidi, then it was probably for a similar role with the club (play everyday against LHP, platoon with someone/Smoak, cover multiple positions, etc). Pearce is unquestionably the better player so he's a far better target for what might end up being similar cost.

Maybe Rodriguez made some type of adjustment that is partially sustainable for his offense, but a 30% K% and a BABIP of near .350 doesn't make me very optimistic about how he'll perform next season and beyond, especially given his track record prior to 2016. Pearce is a much better target, and Barney can be the super utility player anyway since it appears he can cover LF just fine in addition to all the infield spots and (historically) can hit LHP just as well as Rodriguez (obviously not the case in 2016 as Rodriguez mashed them).

I wanted the Jays to get Pearce at the deadline as well. He fits this team like a glove as far as their needs, and it probably wouldn't take long for him to snatch the 1B job from Smoak if that's what their plan is at the moment. Just a matter of if he can stay healthy.
uglyone - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 02:36 PM EST (#335822) #
For me Rodriguez was simply a versatile platoon bat. Nothing more. Even in his bad overall years he still hit lefties. I wouldn't have counted on him continuing his breakout vRHP either. For me he'd have been a similar signing as Chris Young for the Sox last year, but more versatile defensively.

Pearce on the other hand is not only an every day guy but a good everyday guy, with the only question with him being health.
Mike Green - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 02:59 PM EST (#335824) #
I was curious about comparables for Pearce.  I ran a Play Index for hitters who had between 1000-1300 PAs and an OPS+ between 120 and 135 during the age 30-33 span (Pearce's numbers were 1148 PAs and 127 OPS+ during that time).  I got 13 players other than Pearce- Russell Branyan, Walker Cooper, Davey Johnson, Wally Post, Jim Gentile, Jerry Lynch, John Wockenfuss, Justin Turner, Aaron Robinson, Lee Lacy, Chick Hafey and Casey Stengel.  Several of the comps weren't good because they already were done by age 33 or missed their age 33 season entirely (Hafey, Gentile, Stengel, Johnson, Post).  Lee Lacy was a completely different type of player than Pearce.  Justin Turner is, of course, a full-time player now and we don't know how he will do after 33, so he doesn't really help.  Branyan had one decent year left.  Lynch had one and a half.  Wockenfuss had 2.  Cooper carried on very well for another 4 years. 

If Pearce is healthy, I can easily see him getting significantly more than Sean Rodriguez.

whiterasta80 - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 04:20 PM EST (#335825) #
Lol at MG extending my autocorrect/typo misery.

I don't trust Segura's breakout so I like Arizona's side of this trade better personally.
bpoz - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 05:52 PM EST (#335826) #
Gerry, how is the prospect list progressing? I know that it is a lot of work. I appreciate the effort.
bpoz - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 06:04 PM EST (#335827) #
Miguel Castro arrived in the big leagues with Osuna.

While Osuna has been fantastic, Castro has had difficulties. I believe he has burned 2 options 2015 and 2016.

He will be 22 on Dec 24th. He has a great arm, but it is no guarantee of success.
scottt - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 07:20 PM EST (#335828) #
Say, how about that Jean Segura for Taijuan Walker trade? Seattle's got some offence in their infield.

Well, Seattle project for no better than 3rd in their division, no matter what they do.
They had 6 starters including Hernandez, Iwakuma, Paxton, Karns and Miranda  and decided their young player wasn't ready at shortstop so they traded one of their starters.
Reminds me a bit of how AA acquired Brett Lawrie. It probably makes them a better team in 2017.

Just last year, the snakes traded a so-so starter along with a low prospect and Aaron Hill to get Segura who gave them a nice 5.7 ERA, so they trade him back for another starter and a younger shortstop who has struggled.
Arizona only won 69 games and seems to be loading up on young players.
Gerry - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 08:01 PM EST (#335829) #
We are hoping for next week. The elves are busy collating and writing.
Craig B - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 09:11 PM EST (#335830) #
Miss you guys, and I hope everything is well with all the Bauxites.
scottt - Thursday, November 24 2016 @ 11:18 PM EST (#335831) #
Pitching in Colorado is not easy. Castro will eventually get a chance somewhere else.
Mike Green - Friday, November 25 2016 @ 09:00 AM EST (#335832) #
Walking to the office today, a van passed by with "T&A Cleaning" written on it in big black letters.  It made me feel very old, so I checked Urban Dictionary.  The phrase might still be in use- the entry was from 2003- "let's go to Tae Bo and get some t and a".  Anyways, the heady combination of cleaning and lust leads to the song of the day.

Steve Pearce's injury is a flexor mass strain.  It apparently can be a precursor to ligament injury and TJ surgery.  TJ outcomes may not be as good in these cases.  He was placed on the 60 day DL in mid-September by the Os, so they obviously knew then that his season was done. 
Mike Green - Friday, November 25 2016 @ 10:19 AM EST (#335833) #
My quote of the day is courtesy of Tallulah Bankhead (no relation to Scott):

"There have been only two geniuses in the world, Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare. But, darling, I think you'd better put Shakespeare first"
mathesond - Friday, November 25 2016 @ 12:09 PM EST (#335834) #
Tallulah Bankhead, eh? Now I want to watch Lifeboat again.
ComebyDeanChance - Friday, November 25 2016 @ 06:51 PM EST (#335835) #
Glevin - Sunday, November 27 2016 @ 07:43 AM EST (#335836) #
Great articles by Bill James and Joe Posnanski about the Verlander/Porcello Cy Young conversation

I think there is now a similar problem in some areas of advanced statistics as there used to be in basic ones. People look at WAR as a simple measurement of value but it is A) Not how teams look at value at all which in itself is an issue (especially since now pretty much every team is run by smart, advanced thinkers) B) The stat especially in defence and pitching can be problematic.

scottt - Sunday, November 27 2016 @ 03:15 PM EST (#335837) #
Cool articles there.

To me, it's not what set of stats are better, but what's the reality behind the stats.

I hadn't looked at the details, but Happ finished 6th with a 7% share of the vote while Sanchez landed 7th, tied with Tanaka, with 3%.

That also reminds me that Tanaka makes 22M but can opt out after next year. Will he? That's more that what Porcello makes. On the other hand Max Scherzer will be making more than 42M a year when he's 34, 35 and 36.

Francona is the AL manager of the year. Bannister finished 2nd. Showalter is 3rd. Farrell is 4th. Girardi is 5th.
I had a double take there because I thought Ricky Gervais was 6th.

All the other teams that made the playoffs had great managers and all the division rivals except Tampa Bay of course.

John Northey - Sunday, November 27 2016 @ 09:13 PM EST (#335838) #
I think there is a rule that no Jays manager will ever get respect in voting.

Cito Gaston's best was taking a team from 12-24 to the division title and he came in 2nd. Two other times he came in 3rd (1991 and 1993).

Gibbons got a 4th last year, taking a team to the playoffs for the first time in over 2 decades. The 3 guys who got more votes won at least 5 fewer games. This year the team that beat the Jays got more votes and the guys who managed the 2 who were behind the Jays got votes but nada for Gibbons.

In 1998 Tim Johnson got a vote or two and came in 6th. 2003 Carlos Tosca got a few votes and came in 7th. 1985 saw Bobby Cox win it when the Jays won 99 games. 1983 Cox also got votes (the first time the Jays were decent) coming in 3rd. 1984 the same thing, a few votes and 4th place.

Wonder what Gibbons did to piss off writers so much? He had to deal with Bautista missing a chunk of the season and not hitting like himself, Travis missing a third of the season, Smoak being on the roster all year, a constantly changing bullpen that somehow became good.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 27 2016 @ 09:22 PM EST (#335839) #
The people who choose the winners never want to alienate the PA so occasionally Blue Jay players will win awards. With 29 US teams contending for the non-player Awards, the sole CDN team will never get a sniff. If there were more CDN teams, that might be different.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 27 2016 @ 11:52 PM EST (#335841) #
. ..
lexomatic - Monday, November 28 2016 @ 07:27 AM EST (#335842) #
2 posts now where nothing shows up. This time I had to copy and paste because internet was screwy. Does that mess things up? I swear it never used to.
I had stats about jays expectations anyway to sum. Not a huge surprise Gibbons didn't get votes - he barely met expectations

cybercavalier - Monday, November 28 2016 @ 10:28 AM EST (#335843) #
2 posts now where nothing shows up.

After you hit the preview button, it is possible your post appears in preview but NOT in the comment box when internet is having its way. So before you hit the Submit Comment button, ensure your whole comment is in the comment box.
cybercavalier - Monday, November 28 2016 @ 10:40 AM EST (#335845) #
Now the blank comment box thingy happens to me.

MLBTR recently hosts this article that shows 5 ways the Dodgers shall stay competitive in 2017. For the Jays, AA's FO held up apparently in

1. Backloaded contracts for beyond 2018
Jpey Bats and EE (2016). Russell Martin.
2. Replace Jansen and/or Turner internally, or with cheaper external options.
Kevin Pillar, Marcus Stroman
J. A. Happ, Colabello (2016), Travis, Ezequiel Carrera, Saunders(2016)
3. Trade prospects for stars on inexpensive contracts.
Lawrie and prospects for Donaldson
4. Swap one big contract for another that is a better fit.
Jose Reyes for Tulo

The current FO, in addition to the above for, also do
5. Keep doing what they’re doing ?
PeterG - Monday, November 28 2016 @ 12:07 PM EST (#335846) #
Jarrett Grube, rhp, is latest Bluejay signing (minor league deal)
Parker - Monday, November 28 2016 @ 02:20 PM EST (#335847) #
Minor league deal for C Mike Ohlman, too.

BP likes him as a 40 across-the-board guy. He held his own in the PCL at age-25 this year. Good makeup, apparently. Not considered a great defender. Some scouts don't think he has a future at C, and he doesn't hit well enough for 3B or 1B.

Hopefully the Jays know something to prove those scouts wrong. He's not awful. We'll see how he does in Spring Training, I guess.
jerjapan - Monday, November 28 2016 @ 05:43 PM EST (#335848) #
Wow, Grube is a true minor league warrior - 35 years old, with one big league appearance.  Must be gunning for a coaching job?  Good on him, regardless, he might end up a mentor for some of the other players on the cusp of the bigs.

The article CBDC links to is interesting.  Steve Sanders sounds great, but I do worry about 'if it ain't broke ...'.  Parker et al had a strong run, and Sanders is unproven.  The comments about moving the draft in a more conservative direction have me somewhat worried. 

Shi Davidi says the Jays would give up a comp pic for Fowler.  I remain in favour of that move, and a supplemental move - like for Ian Desmond.  A second round comp pick vs. a first tips the needle for me in terms of a 'risky' signing.

The Baseball America preview of the rule v draft has a few intriguing bullpen arms, and lefties in particular.  With our wide-open pen, I do hope the FO picks someone.

Bobby Meacham - last year's AA manager - is replacing Gary Allenson as the leader of the Bisons.  I literally have no opinion on this - do you guys?

BlueJayWay - Monday, November 28 2016 @ 07:52 PM EST (#335849) #
I would like Fowler as well but I'm skeptical it'll happen. The Jays would have to offer the most $$$ for him to pick Toronto, and it might be a prohibitive amount.

Here's a question: what's the last significant American-born FA the Jays have signed, who wasn't previously a Jay at some point?

jerjapan - Monday, November 28 2016 @ 08:32 PM EST (#335850) #
Oh man.  I guessed BJ and AJ before looking it up ... no spoilers. 

But this is a different era IMO.  Toronto is hot again - back to back playoff appearances, tons of swagger, 'we the north' and a growing, multicultural fanbase. 

I imagine the era of 'FAs won't come to TO without a premium' is ending. 

but just how significant is Dexter Fowler, anyway?

SK in NJ - Monday, November 28 2016 @ 08:36 PM EST (#335851) #
The majority of free agents sign with the team that is willing to overpay the most (in years, dollars, or both), so it's a safe bet that a potential Fowler contract with the Jays would probably be a bad one from a team perspective. I just don't see this front office doing something like that for someone in his 30's with Fowler's skill set. I like Fowler, but giving him 4-5 years, which is what it would probably take, is a very risky investment, even though it would certainly be a short-term improvement.
jerjapan - Monday, November 28 2016 @ 08:51 PM EST (#335852) #
The win curve is a thing, though, and we are on it.

some FA  contracts - expensive though they seem at the time - pay off.  Justin Verlander was written off here two years back, and nearly won the Cy Young this year. 

SK, I see Fowler in the same realm as Morales.  Fowler will cost lots more, but we aren't even talking a top FA here - just a mid-tier guy, who fits what we need.  Who cares if we overpay a bit?  And, a separate question, who would you sign?  Surely, trades, undervalued FAs and internal development can't be the only means of improving?

Also, I'm thinking there are young FAs in the States - young, wealthy guys, with a variety of friends/teammates of different racialized or otherwise marginalized backgrounds - who might see Toronto as genuinely appealing.  And we are a cool city recently as well - a factor that young people consider sometimes.  I know I used to think about things like that!  

uglyone - Monday, November 28 2016 @ 09:53 PM EST (#335853) #
there are worse things than having some overpaid players.

SK in NJ - Monday, November 28 2016 @ 10:38 PM EST (#335854) #
Draft picks come with a $ value too, which has to be factored in when signing a qualified FA. Regardless, as good as Fowler has been the past two seasons, the Jays (or whichever team signs him) will be paying him for ages 31 to 34 or 35 depending on the length of the deal, and he's currently at a projected WAR of a little over 2.0 for 2017. He might be able to beat that projection, but the question is will his skill set age well enough to be worth the investment + the pick? That's what they have to consider. It wouldn't be an awful move, just not one that has a ton of upside. The likelyhood of him being as good as he was in 2016 again is not very high. Morales is signed for three years at an AAV around what he's probably worth, give or take. With Fowler, it's going to be a much bigger and longer investment.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 01:14 AM EST (#335855) #
Signature Moves:
Signing Aroldis Chapman is a real signature move.
Acquiring Chris Sale and Adam Eaton in trade is a signature move.
Acquiring Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera in trade is a Signature Move.
Signing Dexter Fowler is not. It's filling a need.
Glevin - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 04:41 AM EST (#335856) #
Fowler is a good player. Yes, he's likely to decline but his skill set will likely age well and it's mostly getting on base and he does that well every year. (Career .366 OBP). His WRC+ has been over 100 pretty much every season in his career and I think he'd likely be a good defensive corner OFer as well. He is very likely to be valuable to some degree for a while plus he's only 30 which is young for a FA. I'd probably take him over Encarnacion over the next four years.

Nothing wrong with overpaying a player or two but the Jays are already on the hook for the next few years for Tulo and Martin for $40M a year on negative WAR offensive players (and declining). It definitely reduces payroll flexibility significantly.
scottt - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 06:02 AM EST (#335857) #
The most pressing needs seem to be a lead off hitter who gets on base and Fowler can do that while plugging a whole in right field. He's probably expensive enough to block Encarnation, but it's a decent tradeoff.

Jon Jay is also an option, but I don't like where his OBP has been trending. I supposed, if you can get him for 2 years you limit the risk and then if you can get another big bat at first that might even things out.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 06:43 AM EST (#335858) #
Fowler is definitely a good player and would help the team in 2017 (he's also a great fit from a need standpoint), but the question is would he be worth signing to the type of deal that it would likely take to sign him plus lose a draft pick? Adding him in general is fine, it's the cost (and term) associated that is the issue.

As far as how he will age, he's probably not going to be a 129 wRC+ player that often over the next 4-5 years, so his base running and defense will go a long way in determining his value. He does walk a lot, so that's definitely a plus for his offense. With Tulo and Martin already signed over the next 3-4 years to big money in their 30's, adding more talent in that age group and in that AAV range just does not seem like a good idea, especially if extending Donaldson is a priority.

From a win curve standpoint, it made more sense to sign him last season. Ironically, no team wanted to lose a pick for him a year ago except the O's who were apparently going to get him on a reasonable 3 year deal. That won't be the case this season. If you can get him for three years, then that changes my perspective.
Glevin - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 09:31 AM EST (#335859) #
Chris Carter was designated for assignment. Could be an affordable one-year stop-gap. His career WRC+ is 112 and I don't think he'd be pricey at all. Definitely would be an upgrade on Smoak.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 10:16 AM EST (#335861) #
Our old friend Eric Thames has signed a three year deal with the Brewers.
mathesond - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 11:09 AM EST (#335862) #
$16M for Thames? Guess moving to Korea paid off.
AWeb - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 11:29 AM EST (#335864) #
Thames will be a good test of the Korea - MLB conversion rate for stats. Bonds-ian numbers two years ago, still great last year (OPS over 1.100), best or top-3 hitter in the league. No idea what to make of it, although Minnesota has PArk who was somewhat similar in Korea and barely passable in MLB. The power travelled pretty well though, so there's that...

Possible he figured something out and can be a solid hitter - importantly they're not planning to play him in the OF. I'm very confused by his 40 SB in 2015...did Korea experiment with not having catchers or fielders to cover bases? Maybe it's a faulty memory, but wasn't Thames remarkably slow for a young non-catcher?
uglyone - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 11:42 AM EST (#335869) #
Thames was a better hitter in mlb than, say, Smoak. And Thames was only 25 when he left.
Vulg - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 12:33 PM EST (#335870) #
Hyun Soo Kim provided some insight into Korea-to-MLB conversion numbers last year, slashing 302/382/420 (+113 OPS) in over 300 ABs. His defensive WAR wiped out his offensive WAR, but at least it looked like he could hang.

I don't see the Jays landing Fowler. Payroll would have to increase substantially to fit in a top-tier FA, which is how he'll be paid. People were bemoaning the $$ for bullpen arms last year when the initial wave of players were landing 3 year deals for $6M per season and early indication is that this has only crept up again this offseason (i.e. Cecil deal).

Even if payroll goes up from the ~$160M they ended at last season, it could still go down relative to other teams (as happened from 2014 > 2015), which is all that really matters when you're competing for the same talent pool.
Parker - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 12:33 PM EST (#335871) #
Yeah, Thames was never a bad hitter, he was just an awful outfielder. Since the Jays already had fellow awful outfielder Adam Lind manning first, and Encarnacion at DH, there just wasn't anywhere for Thames to play. If he was a righty he probably could've platooned with Lind, at least.

Anyway, good for Thames with that contract. He always seemed likeable.
Parker - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 12:35 PM EST (#335872) #
I like Fowler a lot, but the draft pick cost and the money cost just makes it seem like it's not worth it.

I'm not counting on it, but I don't think it's impossible that Pompey out-WAR's Fowler over the course of the next four years.
85bluejay - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 01:05 PM EST (#335874) #
I'm skeptical that the Jays will pay Josh Donaldson the money required to keep him after 2018 & if QO is eliminated, the team doesn't even get a pick - I wonder if the FO have considered taking a step back in 2017 - with the dearth & cost of quality FA and not many teams in a selling mood, I think the likes of Donaldson/Pillar/Osuna could fetch a healthy haul of young or near ready ML talent and in July, players such as Estrada & Liriano could be auctioned off to contenders - Jays could be ready to compete in 2018.
Glevin - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 01:15 PM EST (#335875) #
The QO will not be eliminated. The team losing a player will likely get a sandwich pick. The change is that the team signing won't forfeit a pick.
85bluejay - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 02:22 PM EST (#335876) #
Mets Re-sign Cespedes - wonder if that means Jay Bruce to the Jays.
Parker - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 02:28 PM EST (#335877) #
It might mean J.D. Martinez to the Jays...
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 02:40 PM EST (#335878) #
I'm not counting on it, but I don't think it's impossible that Pompey out-WAR's Fowler over the course of the next four years.

At this point, the club has Pompey, Carrera and Upton as corner outfielders.  They could go with just those three, but "room for improvement" is an understatement.  Neither Carrera nor Upton can hit RHP acceptably well. 
Vulg - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 02:48 PM EST (#335880) #
I'm skeptical that the Jays will pay Josh Donaldson the money required to keep him after 2018 & if QO is eliminated

I don't think ownership risks the ramifications of not retaining Donaldson. Assuming he doesn't fall off a cliff, that's a dangerous message to send both to the players market as well as the fan base.

It's not completely analogous to Robbie Alomar's history because Josh was a bit older when the Jays acquired him, but there are strong parallels, especially because the club own his arbitration years. He just concluded his second full season as a Jay after spending 2.5 in Oakland. By the time his contract is up, he'll have spent 4 seasons with the team and will likely still be recognized as the heart of the Jays and probably still garnering MVP votes. He may even be on a HoF trajectory, though time is against him. At the very least, he'll be an all-time Blue Jay.

There is immense pressure for teams like the Reds to hang onto Votto, the Mariners to hang onto King Felix etc. I can't imagine the Jays let him walk even if they're not a top 10 payroll team.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 02:52 PM EST (#335881) #
Edwin Encarnacion just became the #1 Free Agent available.
PeterG - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 02:57 PM EST (#335882) #
Josh Donaldson will not be allowed to walk for a compensation pick. I think that the possibility of him being traded sometime in the next 14 months is a very real one and is under active consideration by the FO.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 03:34 PM EST (#335884) #
The Mets will need to move an OF. They now have (off the top of my head) Cespedes, Bruce, Conforto, Granderson, and Lagares.

If the Jays do get Bruce, I hope there is some way of sending Smoak the other way. It would make the deal a lot more palatable.
Parker - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 04:11 PM EST (#335886) #
I hope the Jays don't trade Donaldson. I'm all for maximizing assets, but this is the guy you build a franchise around.

This is the kind of talent you throw away money on, if that's what it takes.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 05:22 PM EST (#335890) #
I'm not a fan of signing players long-term in their 30's, as you can tell by my posts, but I'd be fine with a Donaldson extension. With certain players you can live with the decline at the end, and he's one of them.

He doesn't strike me as a player who will pass up on testing free agency, though.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 07:45 PM EST (#335895) #
There is this:

Offer Donaldson 4 years, $120.0 Million and discuss up to 3 Option Years (same $30.0 Million value).
Offer Donaldson 5 Years, $137.5 Million and discuss up to 2 Option Years (same $27.5 Million value).
Offer Donaldson 6 Years, $150.0 Million and discuss one Option Year (same $25.0 Million value).
Offer Donaldson 7 years, $157.5 Million.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 08:32 PM EST (#335896) #
According to Heyman, the Jays are "showing strong interest" in Fowler. The Cespedes deal pretty much guarantees that no current FA is getting more than a four year deal in this market (unless a team gets really desperate/stupid). Fowler for four years and a pick would be a steep price (depending on the AAV). Really depends on whether the team is willing to lose a pick, and whether adding another long-term contract is going to hinder what they can do going forward (namely with Donaldson if that is being considered).

I'd still be surprised if the FO signed a qualified FA for big money in a weak FA market, but who knows. When the alternative is Jay Bruce (who Heyman also mentions the Jays having interest in), you can tell there's not much out there.
85bluejay - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 09:33 PM EST (#335898) #
While I'm a big fan of building through the draft - one can become too protective of a draft choice - after all, what are we giving up? The chance to draft the next Kevin Ahrens,David Cooper, Chad Jenkins or Deck McGuire - besides, we will have 2 picks for EE & Jose - Sometimes, for the right player you have to be willing to give up the pick.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 10:02 PM EST (#335899) #
"Sometimes, for the right player you have to be willing to give up the pick."

Agreed. I had no issues losing a pick for Martin (seemed like a good bet to reach the value of the deal at the time, plus had framing value that was not included in WAR), and I'd probably get over losing one for Fowler. I'm just a bit skeptical of what he's going to be long-term, even though he fits the Jays current needs like a glove short-term.

There is a $ value to draft picks though, especially with the way the draft is set up. That has to factor in to free agent decisions. If they feel Fowler is worth that loss, then it is what it is. Like I said, I like him as a player, so he'll improve the team.
scottt - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 10:46 PM EST (#335900) #
I'd still be surprised if the FO signed a qualified FA for big money in a weak FA market, but who knows. When the alternative is Jay Bruce (who Heyman also mentions the Jays having interest in), you can tell there's not much out there.

The FA market isn't that much better next year. Not for position players. Besides, a strong FA market pretty much guarantees silly contracts like 7+ years.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, November 29 2016 @ 11:28 PM EST (#335901) #
Well, if the Jays are going to sign a qualified FA, then this is the year to do it as they'll get two picks for Edwin and Jose, so the loss of a pick won't be as bad as it would have been if they lost the ability to pick in the first round entirely.

Hell, you guys have sold me. Sign Fowler, hope he has a couple of 3+ WAR seasons left in him, and take the two picks from Edwin/Jose. I'm on board. As long as the term/AAV is reasonable.
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, November 30 2016 @ 12:21 AM EST (#335902) #
I too, could live with Fowler at four years. He also provides insurance in center when Pillar needs a day off.

Which is my next question. Could the Jays be looking at reducing Pillar's playing time to ward off nagging injuries, and perhaps hiding his bat?

Jonny German - Wednesday, November 30 2016 @ 05:16 AM EST (#335903) #
Here's a question: what's the last significant American-born FA the Jays have signed, who wasn't previously a Jay at some point?

I think the answer is Frank Thomas. 2 years, $18M in November of 2006. No one else even over $5M since then.
Jonny German - Wednesday, November 30 2016 @ 05:27 AM EST (#335904) #
If the Jays do get Bruce, I hope there is some way of sending Smoak the other way. It would make the deal a lot more palatable.

This is a good point. Tho I think I would be even happier if they didn't get Bruce and simply released Smoak.
scottt - Wednesday, November 30 2016 @ 06:40 AM EST (#335905) #
Maybe it's more a question of putting him on the DL  when he's hurt if someone can play the position well enough.
He sure likes to play iron-man.

scottt - Wednesday, November 30 2016 @ 06:55 AM EST (#335906) #
Bruce is still in the picture, but maybe as a platoon partner for Upton in left? Sounds expensive but Upton, Liriano and Estrada are free agents next year, so the team retains the flexibility to reduce payroll fast enough if revenues are short.
scottt - Wednesday, November 30 2016 @ 06:57 AM EST (#335907) #
The Cubs have apparently signed Jon Jay for 1 year 8M. That's one less suitor for Fowler.
scottt - Wednesday, November 30 2016 @ 07:06 AM EST (#335908) #
On the Donaldson front, I pretty sure he'll want to go through free agency, because of his age and will not accept an extension even to another team if the Jays were to try to trade him. That would limit the return on a trade. On the other hand, Shapiro has been able to acquire many top prospects in trade before, so that wouldn't be surprising.

As things stand, I think Donaldson is more likely to start 2018 as a Blue Jays, but this is like calling the US election.

Mike Green - Wednesday, November 30 2016 @ 09:47 AM EST (#335913) #
The 2017 ZiPS projections are out.  They are interesting.  None of the projections make me (stupidly) smirk at the screen- OK there is one, Michael Saunders defence +1 better than Dalton Pompey defence -1.  There are pleasant positive projections for Gurriel, Jimenez and Danny Barnes.  The projections do correctly identify the simple way to improving the club- acquiring league average or slightly better players for the corner outfield and first base. 

I love the Yuber Rodriguez comp for D.J. Davis...
uglyone - Wednesday, November 30 2016 @ 11:29 AM EST (#335917) #
thanks for the zips, mike.

To put them into a rate format:

1. 2B Travis 471pa, 113ops+, 2.9war, 4.0war/650
2. 3B Donaldson 657pa, 141ops+, 7.0war, 6.9war/650
3. 1B
4. DH Morales 557pa, 115ops+, 2.0war, 2.3war/650
5. SS Tulowitzki 481pa, 106ops+, 3.3war, 4.5war/650
6. C Martin 462pa, 102ops+, 3.1war, 4.4war/650
7. CF Pillar 609pa, 92ops+, 3.2war, 3.4war/650
8. RF Pompey 497pa, 76ops+, 0.8war, 1.1war/650
9. LF Carrera 381pa, 81ops+, 0.6war, 1.0war/650

B. UT Smoak 387pa, 97ops+, 0.4war, 0.7war/650
B. OF Upton 433pa, 77ops+, 0.4war, 0.6war/650
B. IF Goins 425pa, 61ops+, 0.0war, 0.0war/650
B. C Jimenez 240pa, 74ops+, 0.9war, 2.4war/650

B. UT Tellez 514pa, 102ops+, 0.7war, 0.9war/650
B. IF Gurriel 567pa, 102ops+, 1.7war, 2.0war/650

X Encarnacion 576pa, 137ops+, 3.6war, 4.1war/650
X Bautista 510pa, 134ops+, 3.1war, 4.0war/650
X Saunders 427pa, 112ops+, 1.7war, 2.6war/650

SP Sanchez 31gs, 78era-, 86fip-, 4.6war, 4.8war/32gs
SP Estrada 29gs, 89era-, 102fip-, 3.1war, 3.4war/32gs
SP Stroman 23gs, 92era-, 85fip-, 2.2war, 3.1war/32gs
SP Happ 27gs, 92era-, 93fip-, 2.5war, 3.0war/32gs
SP Liriano 28gs, 98era-, 102fip-, 2.0war, 2.3war/32gs
SP Bolsinger 20gs, 107era-, 101fip-, 0.9war, 1.4war/32gs
SP Reid-Foley 24gs, 121era-, 117fip-, 0.0war, 0.0war/32gs

RP Osuna 71.2ip, 64era-, 71fip-, 1.4war, 1.3war/65ip
RP Barnes 66.1ip, 82era-, 78fip-, 0.7war, 0.7war/65ip
RP Biagini 66.2ip, 88era-, 90fip-, 0.5war, 0.5war/65ip
RP Grilli 41.1ip, 86era-, 88fip-, 0.3war, 0.5war/65ip
RP Tepera 61.0ip, 93era-, 96fip-, 0.3war, 0.3war/65ip
RP Loup 48.0ip, 92era-, 95fip-, 0.2war, 0.3war/65ip
RP Campos 58.1ip, 93era-, 90fip-, 0.2war, 0.2war/65ip
RP Leone 62.0ip, 105era-, 97fip-, -0.1war, -0.1war/65ip
RP Girodo 56.1ip, 112era-, 111fip-, -0.3war, -0.4war/65ip

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, November 30 2016 @ 05:36 PM EST (#335924) #
It's becoming apparent that this Offseason is all about Edwin. If he returns, Jays will sign Fowler or acquire someone other than Bruce, then sign a Backup Catcher. Carrera and Upton will share LF duties. If he doesn't, Jays will sign Fowler, acquire Bruce, sign Pearce and have Jiminez as Backup Catcher. The names might vary slightly if they can do better.
bpoz - Wednesday, November 30 2016 @ 06:09 PM EST (#335928) #
IMO the FO will sign a backup Jimmenez.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, November 30 2016 @ 09:13 PM EST (#335933) #
New CBA is finalized, or very close to it, according to Twitter. Short summary based on a lot of info coming out:

- No international draft.

- Luxury tax threshold to rise per year (Rosenthal mentions something like: $195M, $197M, $206M, $209M, $210M over the five years of the CBA).

- Rosters will remain at 25 (so no 26-man roster).

- Teams will no longer lose 1st round picks when signing free agents.

More notes will probably come out over the next little while, but that's what's out there at the moment.
Vulg - Wednesday, November 30 2016 @ 10:18 PM EST (#335934) #
Some additional details per Stark:

The luxury-tax threshold will jump from $189 million to $195 million initially, then gradually increase to $210 million in the final year of the agreement.

Teams that exceed the threshold will pay similar tax rates to the current deal unless they go way over the threshold, in which case their tax rate could jump to as high as 90 percent.

Teams signing a premium free agent will still be subject to draft-pick compensation. Teams over the luxury tax threshold lose a 2nd- & 5th-round pick. Teams under the threshold lose a 3rd-round pick.

Instead of an international draft, each team will have a hard cap on total bonuses it can give to foreign-born players.

Rosters will remain at 25 players before Sept. 1 and remain at 40 after Sept. 1.

The labor agreement is a five-year deal, covering the 2017-2021 seasons.
Glevin - Thursday, December 01 2016 @ 02:58 AM EST (#335935) #
Most important thing is they got a deal done. I would love to have seen the end of September 40 man roster which is idiotic but like a lot of people, had mixed feelings about a 26-man roster during the year. I think if baseball sorts out the length of the games a bit, there'd be less concern but every team having an extra reliever to play matchups with would lengthen games even further. I like the new QO system better. Teams don't care nearly as much about a third round pick and it certainly wouldn't stop a team from signing anyone.
scottt - Thursday, December 01 2016 @ 07:45 AM EST (#335937) #
I like the new QO system better.

I'm not sure I agree. No compensation if  the player signs for less than 50M, that means a player can easily sign for 2 years and more money by year than the QO. That would possibly mean no picks for Bautista if this was in effect this year rather than next year.

Also, the draft compensation will be in function of the market size of the team losing the player. What does it means for the Blue Jays? Would player like Encarnation only give them a 3rd or 4th round pick?

This might make it harder to resign Estrada if he's putting another good year.
scottt - Thursday, December 01 2016 @ 07:51 AM EST (#335938) #
This also changes the picture on Donaldson. Instead of a pick after the first round, the Blue Jays would be getting a later pick. The odds of trading Donaldson at the end of next year seemingly goes up and the return on that trade likely goes down as the other team would receive less when he declines which he will likely do since his value on the market has just gone up.
BlueJayWay - Thursday, December 01 2016 @ 08:05 AM EST (#335939) #
Really wary about tying draft pick compensation to contract amount and "market size".
scottt - Thursday, December 01 2016 @ 08:48 AM EST (#335942) #
A player can now receive a QO only once in his career. That would mean Estrada is now exempt.

Also the International market becomes a hard cap.

uglyone - Thursday, December 01 2016 @ 11:45 AM EST (#335952) #
Thought experiment of the day:

If Tulo and Martin were free agents right now, what kind of deal would they land?
Richard S.S. - Thursday, December 01 2016 @ 12:31 PM EST (#335954) #
D.L. reduced to 10 games from 15.
ayjackson - Thursday, December 01 2016 @ 02:25 PM EST (#335965) #
I'm not sure I agree. No compensation if the player signs for less than 50M, that means a player can easily sign for 2 years and more money by year than the QO. That would possibly mean no picks for Bautista if this was in effect this year rather than next year.

What's the motivation to do that? Just to shaft your previous team? The signing team's lost picks are not impacted by size of contract. It's only the losing team that is affected in its compensation.
92-93 - Thursday, December 01 2016 @ 02:42 PM EST (#335966) #
I'd say something right around their current commitments; maybe Martin 3/54, Tulo 4/76. Martin would be signing for ages 34-36, Tulowitzki 32-35.
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, December 01 2016 @ 05:01 PM EST (#335972) #
Thoughts on the new collective agreement. They largely mirror Jeff Passan's tweet:

"Effects of the new CBA....the Yankees and the Red Sox are back in business.."

First, the players association obviously surprised me with the tenacity with which they opposed the international draft.

Second, and more importantly, I don't think it's a particularly good collective agreement for the Blue Jays. In fact, in about every possible direction it's a bad one.

The MLBPA for years was driven by a theory that what's good for the Yankees and Red Sox is good for them. The Blue Jays on the other hand, are one of the teams that depend on competitive balance.

The MLBPA fought revenue sharing and they fought a luxury tax. They always fought to remove the salary drag that free agent compensation provides.

This collective agreement seems like a triple for the MLBPA. I'm sure that baseball figures the most important short term goal is to avoid any interruption to play in a successful revenue period, but I think this may be short-sighted.

The collective agreement seems to push competitive balance backwards. This seems to be done through a number of ways - raising the luxury tax to new levels, diminishing revenue sharing, and diminishing the compensation received when free agents sign with the big market teams, as they are now more likely to do. Equal access to international free agents has been avoided and while the mega deals to guys like Moncada appear to be now off, there is no draft.

As a Blue Jay fan I'm disappointed in this. It'll be great for the Yankees and the Red Sox to not have to share revenue or pay luxury tax or lose high draft picks for free agents. For teams that don't play in a division with two juggernauts it won't be that bad. But for the Blue Jays, this seems like a pretty bad deal. At least they'll be testing now for HGH more effectively.
scottt - Thursday, December 01 2016 @ 06:12 PM EST (#335976) #
At least there's still a luxury tax and the Red Sox and Yankees will quickly be limited by it.
Toronto does not seem to be competing for any free agents with Boston and New York this year.

Also, the current FO seems to be trying to build with prospects which is not affected by this. The Jays can certainly do as well as any other with a 5 or 6M international cap. Thankfully there are no changes to the draft rules that affect signability, but getting extra picks keeps getting harder.

The new QO rules will make it easier for average free agents to sign elsewhere.
Let say Liriano has a good year, he can be offered a QO if the FO wants him to play the one extra year at that salary, but just offering one will not return any pick if he signs a 2 year deal for 44M with a club option for an extra year.

What's next? Non tender deadline, Rule V draft, Winter meetings...

scottt - Thursday, December 01 2016 @ 06:24 PM EST (#335979) #
Hopefully, the 10 day DL means more Day to Day players are put there rather than slotted at DH.

bpoz - Thursday, December 01 2016 @ 06:57 PM EST (#335980) #
I am thinking along the similar lines as scottt.

What is next?

However I think the 40 man roster is a major factor in competitiveness. IMO every team has to protect their best prospects. So a spot is used on Alford for example and he could be a bust. So that becomes a wasted spot, Unfortunately.

I think we have the correct number of utility IFs. Goins, Burns and Barney if the is signed by us.

You cannot use too many spots on relief pitchers like, Girado, Tepera, Barnes, Campos, Dermody, Leone, Shultz and Smith. Loup as well may go up and down. But he could be expensive to stash in Buffalo.

I am ok with using as much as 2 spots for Ml ready backup catchers, option 3 and 4. A team needs insurance.

But then how many 4th OFs do we need. Dwight Smith Jr and Harold Ramirez are 2 OFs with a bit of offensive ability. Roeman Fields gives you the defense. Pompey gives you both, but unproven potential. Carrera and Cecilliani count as 4th OF types. M Upton is established, so he is not a 4th OF type.

scottt - Thursday, December 01 2016 @ 08:16 PM EST (#335985) #
 All the unsigned free agents will be added to rosters and other players will be designated or outrighted.
That's the way it is. You don't want to keep A prospects on the 40 rosters because you will need those spots when regulars go on the DL.

Glevin - Friday, December 02 2016 @ 05:53 AM EST (#335991) #
What someone would get as a free agent is a terrible way of tell what their value is. Instead, you are saying what the maximum any one team will pay for them. If you have a company and want to hire a secretary, you don't go and look at how much a secretary could possibly make at a maximum. A much better indication is trade value. If you didn't eat any salary, what would you get for Martin or Tulo. The answer. Basically nothing and for most teams you'd have to eat salary. What would you get for Donaldson or Sanchez or Osuna a lot because their salaries are low compared to their value.

When the Jays traded for Tulo it was to hope he regained his offence and returned to, if not near elite levelthan to close to that, not for a guy hasn't been a top 10 offensive ss in two years. (Actually not even top 10 in WAR). He has gone from absolutely elite to the same level as a lot of different guys. in 3-4 years, you will almost certainly will be paying $20m a year for a replaceable player.. Defence at ss does not age well. Martin's contract is much better because the Jays got a ton of value out of the front loaded part of it already and it's a year shorter. Will he be worth $60m over the next 3 years though? I would bet a ton of money against it. He's. 34 yo catcher with two years of decline and wasn't worth his contract this year.. If you go by the conservative -0.5 a year WAR for aging you have


And Tulo

If you say you are paying roughly 8.5 per WAR a year (although I don't really like this method as teams don't really pay for WAR) Martin would bring back about $23m total for $60m spent and Tulo would be worth around $53m when you'd be paying him $78m. Any way you look at it, these two will have a very difficult time earning what the Jays will pay them.
uglyone - Friday, December 02 2016 @ 08:55 AM EST (#335993) #
So you're agreeing that their contracts are similar to their current free agent value?
uglyone - Friday, December 02 2016 @ 10:25 AM EST (#335996) #
Atkins usual gobbledygook comments make it pretty clear that EE is out of the picture.

he of course implies that the money will be spent elsewhere. I hope he's not lying.
92-93 - Friday, December 02 2016 @ 10:38 AM EST (#335997) #
I don't quite understand the point you're trying to make, Glevin. Any FA who has just signed should be completely valueless on the trade market, but that doesn't mean there isn't value to the team. I don't believe the Jays would be able to lure either of those players to Toronto on those contracts if they were FAs. If one believes Martin would get close to what he's currently owed on the FA market that makes his FA signing a massive win.

It can be argued the Jays were more trying to get rid of a problem child in Jose Reyes who was going to cost more per year than Tulowitzki through 2018. Sure, there was hope that Tulo could return to his elite form, but the expectation was probably closer to what we've seen from him, and that's been an important improvement all-around over what the team was getting from Reyes.
uglyone - Friday, December 02 2016 @ 10:46 AM EST (#335998) #
For the record, both Steamer and Zips see Tulo and Martin as ~3win players next year, including games missed to injury. So ~$25m ish in FA dollars.
bpoz - Friday, December 02 2016 @ 11:02 AM EST (#335999) #
Regarding WAR which I don't really understand.

Lets say in the AL M Trout had the highest WAR. Also that EE and JD had high WAR. Trout's team did not make the post season.

They probably all made about $10 mil last year. If WAR is more about performance on the field and has nothing to do with earnings then if a team's WAR can be calculated then how close to the post season did the 5 highest WAR teams get.

I assume 2 or 3 with the highest team WAR got in.
Mike Green - Friday, December 02 2016 @ 11:25 AM EST (#336000) #
You can read this for a description of what WAR seeks to do and how Fangraphs calculates its' version of WAR.  Team WAR totals are highly correlated with team wins (last year's leaders were the Cubs, Nationals, Dodgers, Indians and Red Sox), There are some teams which significantly overperform or underperform their team WAR totals because of run efficiency or lack thereof or win efficiency or lack thereof (e.g. clutch hitting/pitching, one-run game success...). 

By the way, Mike Trout's contract last year was for $16 million.  He was signed while early in his career to a contract favourable to the club. 
uglyone - Friday, December 02 2016 @ 11:39 AM EST (#336001) #
Top fwar teams:

1.CHC 59.1
2.BOS 52.6
3.LAD 47.8
4.WSH 46.6
5.CLE 46.2
6.NYM 45.2
7.SFG 44.9
8.TOR 42.6
9.HOU 39.9
10.STL 39.2

the only one there that didn't make the playoffs was Houston. which is directly related to the fact that the Rangers made the playoffs despite having one of the bottom 10 team wars in basebal (28.6). This is literally entirely due to the fact that the Rangers somehow went 15-4 against the Astros head to head during the season.
BlueJayWay - Friday, December 02 2016 @ 11:45 AM EST (#336002) #
Well, that and the fact the Rangers had a ridiculous record in one run games. Their team WAR totals were bad and they managed to win many more games than they "should have", which kept the Astros out of the playoffs.
uglyone - Friday, December 02 2016 @ 12:00 PM EST (#336003) #
yep....including an astounding 8-1 record in one run games against Houston alone.
uglyone - Friday, December 02 2016 @ 01:42 PM EST (#336006) #
Average of Zips and Steamer Jays Projections

Note: projections will probably change by the start of the season.

1.2B D.Travis (26): 496pa, 105wrc+, 2.4war, 3.1war/650
2.3B J.Donaldson (31): 659pa, 139wrc+, 6.6war, 6.5war/650
3.DH K.Morales (34): 573pa, 114wrc+, 1.5war, 1.7war/650
4.SS T.Tulowitzki (32): 519pa, 106wrc+, 3.2war, 4.0war/650
5.C R.Martin (34): 500pa, 100wrc+, 3.0war, 3.8war/650
6.1B J.Smoak (30): 464pa, 95wrc+, 0.3war, 0.4war/650
7.CF K.Pillar (28): 577pa, 91wrc+, 2.9war, 3.2war/650
8.LF D.Pompey (24): 485pa, 84wrc+, 1.0war, 1.3war/650
9.RF M.Upton (32): 387pa, 79wrc+, 0.3war, 0.5war/650

B.UT L.Gurriel (23): 567pa, 102wrc+, 1.7war, 2.0war/650 (ZIPS only)
B.OF E.Carrera (30): 467pa, 81wrc+, 0.3war, 0.4war/650
B.IF R.Goins (29): 271pa, 64wrc+, 0.0war, 0.0war/650
B.C A.Jimenez (27): 182pa, 69wrc+, 0.5war, 1.8war/650

B.UT R.Tellez (22): 258pa, 99wrc+, 0.4war, 0.9war/650
B.OF H.Ramirez (22): 221pa, 80wrc+, 0.0war, 0.0war/650
B.IF R.Urena (21): 295pa, 75wrc+, 0.3war, 0.6war/650
B.C R.McGuire (22): 204pa, 64wrc+, 0.2war, 0.6war/650

SP1 A.Sanchez (24): 32gs, 3.72era, 3.9war, 3.9war/32gs
SP2 M.Stroman (26): 26gs, 3.83era, 2.7war, 3.4war/32gs
SP3 J.Happ (34): 29gs, 4.05era, 2.5war, 2.9war/32gs
SP4 M.Estrada (33): 29gs, 4.26era, 2.3war, 2.6war/32gs
SP5 F.Liriano (33): 26gs, 4.07era, 2.1war, 2.5war/32gs
SP6 M.Bolsinger (29): 14gs, 4.47era, 0.8war, 1.7war/32gs
SP7 S.Reid-Foley (21): 12gs, 5.23era, 0.0war, 0.1war/32gs

RP1 R.Osuna (22): 73.0ip, 3.19era, 1.2war, 1.0war/65ip
RP2 D.Barnes (27): 60.2ip, 3.59era, 0.7war, 0.7war/65ip
RP3 J.Biagini (27): 70.1ip, 3.94era, 0.5war, 0.5war/65ip
RP4 J.Grilli (40): 53.1ip, 3.76era, 0.4war, 0.5war/65ip
RP5 R.Tepera (29): 53.0ip, 3.95era, 0.3war, 0.4war/65ip
RP6 A.Loup (29): 44.0ip, 3.74era, 0.3war, 0.4war/65ip
RP7 L.Campos (29): 44.1ip, 4.00era, 0.2war, 0.3war/65ip
RP8 D.Leone (25): 48.2ip, 4.35era, 0.0war, 0.0war/65ip
RP9 C.Girodo (26): 38.1ip, 4.58era, -0.1war, -0.1war/65ip
SK in NJ - Friday, December 02 2016 @ 02:44 PM EST (#336008) #
The expectation is that Ben Revere will be non-tendered by Washington, per a Tweet from Heyman. He had an awful 2016, likely due to a combination of injury and a BABIP of .234 (career .316). If the Jays feel he's still the ~2 WAR player he was prior to 2016, then he's a possible buy low candidate for cheap.
dan gordon - Friday, December 02 2016 @ 07:48 PM EST (#336017) #
Revere was indeed non-tendered, as was catcher Wellington Castillo in a surprise move by Arizona. Also, relievers Seth Maness by the Cardinals, Jeff Manship by the Indians, Vance Worley by the Orioles, and catcher Bryan Holaday by the Red Sox. The Jays may have interest in these guys for a bullpen spot or 2nd catcher, although Castillo would seem to have a shot at a #1 role somewhere.
PeterG - Friday, December 02 2016 @ 08:15 PM EST (#336018) #
Jays tender arb to Stroman, Loup, Barney and Carrera. Burns and Colabello passed through waivers and assigned to Buffalo.
dan gordon - Friday, December 02 2016 @ 10:38 PM EST (#336020) #
Add Chris Withrow to the list of decent relievers non-tendered, and Hector Sanchez to the catcher list. Three open spots on the 40-man roster. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Jays add one of the non-tendered RP.

Rumour of the day is EE has agreed to a 5-year $115 million deal with Houston.
vw_fan17 - Saturday, December 03 2016 @ 01:06 AM EST (#336021) #
Rumour of the day is EE has agreed to a 5-year $115 million deal with Houston.

That seems right on the borders of "ok contract" - $23M/season. Or, 4/25 + a cheaper 5th season, or something.

On the other hand, that's probably equivalent to 5/130 or 5/140 if signed by the Jays: no state income taxes in Texas..
Chuck - Saturday, December 03 2016 @ 05:28 AM EST (#336022) #
Another rumour has Rzepczynski about to sign a 2/11 contract. Mind-numbing to think that someone would see fit to pay him 5.5M a year. I guess we'll see if this actually happens.
uglyone - Saturday, December 03 2016 @ 09:58 AM EST (#336023) #
that EE rumour is a few days old now.
Cracka - Saturday, December 03 2016 @ 10:31 AM EST (#336024) #
The day after the non-tender deadline day reminds me a lot of a community-wide yard sale -- a bunch of interesting odds & ends are suddenly available with highly negotiable prices... buyers dreaming new uses for old items, rekindling memories of the past (Do you remember when Ben Revere led the NL in hits?!?!?!). But in the end, it's all mostly unwanted junk that will be thrown the curb again by next Fall...
uglyone - Saturday, December 03 2016 @ 02:05 PM EST (#336025) #
beltran to astros.

can't be good for their chances of signing EE.
HitmenOF - Saturday, December 03 2016 @ 03:58 PM EST (#336026) #
The Jays are at about $134 million committed if you factor in arbitration projections and pre-arb amounts. From all reports, the payroll is expected to be around $160 million. How do they fill all the holes they need to with just $26 million to spend?

They need 2 outfielders, a first baseman (Smoak should be cut ASAP), at least 2 relievers, preferably including a lefty, and a backup catcher.

Seems like a tall order given the available budget and the current market for even half decent players.
John Northey - Saturday, December 03 2016 @ 04:28 PM EST (#336027) #
The best news is that MLB and the players have agreed to a 5 year deal. A few days old, but more details. $100k for a rule 5 pick, first increase in decades (iirc it was $50k in the 80's when the Jays took Manny Lee and Lou Thorton for their big 1985 season). The international free agents will be far tighter for rules now so the Jays did a good thing signing that Cuban when they did. The rules for free agents are going to be a lot more complicated as the rules are different for teams over the luxury tax and for teams getting revenue sharing money. I'm sure after a winter or two we'll get used to it.
greenfrog - Saturday, December 03 2016 @ 04:38 PM EST (#336028) #
Pearce would seem to be a good fit (assuming he's healthy), given his ability to play multiple positions. Last year he played every position except shortstop and center field.

I could see Granderson or Bruce as an acceptable short-term solution in right field, depending on what the Mets are asking for in return.

It does seem as if the front office is prioritizing building from within, while shoring up the major-league roster with players with short-term contractual commitments (1-3 years). This may be a bit of a sideways year, in that the organization is unlikely to make a big splash in free agency or to trade away its more valuable prospects.
greenfrog - Saturday, December 03 2016 @ 04:39 PM EST (#336029) #
"Last year he played every position except shortstop and center field"*

* and catcher.
uglyone - Saturday, December 03 2016 @ 05:04 PM EST (#336030) #
i don't see how prioritizing building from within has anything to do with free agent spending.

in fact, confidence in your ability to build from within should encourage you to spend more on expensive top end free agents, not less.
PeterG - Saturday, December 03 2016 @ 05:20 PM EST (#336031) #
Yes, you can spend $$$ on FA's but not give term except in one case possibly. I don't see the team signing any impact relievers or 1b. There are many catchers who will be available on minor league deals. I am expecting an impact OF signing and the remaining $$ to be spread around on useful though less expensive extra parts like Revere or Manship for example though not necessarily them.

I too like Pearce as a player but fear that his health may be a negative factor.
scottt - Saturday, December 03 2016 @ 05:38 PM EST (#336032) #
Prioritizing building from within means not signing free agents who cost a draft pick.

greenfrog - Saturday, December 03 2016 @ 06:26 PM EST (#336033) #
I don't see why it is logical to assume that prioritizing building from within has nothing to do with free agent spending.

I'm pretty sure that if the front office wanted to start signing prospects like Moncada ($30m+), Strasburg ($15m+) or Chapman ($16m+) to promote its project of building from within, that spending would ultimately impact the size of the team's major-league payroll. Costs are costs, whether they're incurred by spending on prospects or spending on major-league players.
John Northey - Saturday, December 03 2016 @ 09:14 PM EST (#336034) #
The signing of Lourdes Gurriel Jr was a good move imo. Especially given the international free agent rules have changed, thus limiting what he could've gotten now, thus making it a 'who do you want to play for' rather than who pays the most. The front office needs to bone up on the new rules and find the loopholes like AA did with the old system (bought a draft pick once by buying a pending free agent from another team for $500k iirc, offering arbitration, then saying 'bye bye' as fast as possible).
bpoz - Saturday, December 03 2016 @ 09:15 PM EST (#336035) #
I am going with HitmenOF's budget of $160 mil as our budget. The amount of deep thought I put into this is zero. This amount seems likely.

I am expecting a few additions. Catchers that are interesting. We need someone beside AJ Jimenez to backup Martin.

The OF is the other area that looks bare at the moment. Pillar in CF is good enough, (bats down in the lineup) and cheap. Upton has a lot of ML experience so he is playing in our OF next year. Carrera was offered Arb and had some productive stretches.
It looks to me like there is an opening for OF playing time which I would give to a defensively reliable OF. Cola got ABs in the OF because of his offensive value. But at the moment the 2017 team is different from the 2015 team. The 2017 team was thought of as having a strong enough offense to almost always be still in the game.
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, December 03 2016 @ 10:11 PM EST (#336036) #
I don't think anybody has brought this up yet, but Micheal Conforto is the guy I would go after. We've got some young CF depth at the pro level that the Mets would want in return .
cybercavalier - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 12:05 AM EST (#336037) #
Revere might be a good pickup if he comes cheap. His decline last year seems to have been due to a big drop in his line drive percentage, which might be fixable. He doesn't strike out much (under 10% last year), steals some bases, and plays decent D (good in the corners, below average in center). He doesn't have much of a platoon split, but you could probably use him against righties and Upton against lefties. Because of his speed he'd also be a good option as a pinch runner. He'd certainly give the team a different "look" - left handed, no strikeouts, fast, can bunt, unlikely to GIDP etc..

Bringing this relevant topic to this thread.

Darrell Ceciliani
seems not to be mentioned much recently. Has he already fallen out of the picture? He hit about .750 OPS in Triple-A thus he seems to need one more season of shuttle before settling down.
Glevin - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 07:00 AM EST (#336038) #
"I don't think anybody has brought this up yet, but Micheal Conforto is the guy I would go after. We've got some young CF depth at the pro level that the Mets would want in return."

Conforto would cost a lot more than the other guys and is more of a long-term get. You're probably looking at trading someone like Stroman or a top-5 prospect to get him. Not sure if that makes the Jays better. Personally, I'd love to get Granderson. One year reasonable deal, lots of power, walks a lot, can hit anywhere in the lineup, and is apparently a great guy (certainly easy to root for). He's also just better than Bruce. Not sure what it would take but I don't think he'd be that expensive.
jerjapan - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 11:40 AM EST (#336039) #
Agreed with Greenfrog that 'costs are costs'.  It's pretty easy for statisticians to roughly calculate the value of many different assets these days - long term contracts may be backloaded and offer negative value down the road, but they offer surplus value in the short term (hopefully).  1st round picks are worth roughly 10 million per Fangraphs right now.   You just need to spend your assets wisely.  Blanket rules about no long-term contracts or FAs with a QO attached just seem limiting to me.

Not that I want the FO to shower the Sox with prospects for Chris Sale or throw money at EE / Jose is the final terms are too high.  But I happily give up a pick for Fowler - the cost of which, of course, is also partly born by the player.

Look at how the Yankees rebuilt on the fly as a contender -the big ticket relievers in Miller and Chapman turned them into a top farm system immediately, but lesser deals like McCaan to Houston, or Beltran and Nova at the trade deadline also had value.  Expensive veteran players are not guaranteed to decline in value, and you can afford to take a loss to move them if you gained enough surplus value at the start of their contracts. 

bpoz - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 11:49 AM EST (#336040) #
I also agree with not going after C Sale.

G Ash got soaked for M Sirotka and AA for S Santos.
Mike Green - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 11:55 AM EST (#336041) #
Luis Valbuena is a nice complementary player, who would be an improvement on Justin Smoak.  I wonder how much he will get. 
Richard S.S. - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 12:01 PM EST (#336042) #
If Russell Martin suffers a long term/season-ending injury is the Season over, or are the Backups good enough? Getting the right Backup Catcher is very important, but that means paying very well. Estimate $6.0 - $12.0 Million will acquire a borderline Starting Catcher to an actual number one Starting Catcher. Anything less just might not be good enough.

If Roberto Osuna suffers a long term/season-ending injury is the Season over? Either way, I don't think it matters. Until Joe Biagini is back in the Bullpen, they still need another quality arm. If he's not, they need two. Estimate for a Spot-Starter (Biagini in 'Pen) and a quality Reliever $10.0 - $12.5 Million. Estimate for two quality Relievers (Biagini not in 'Pen) $12.0 - $15.0 Million. Consistency is not cheap.

The Jays' Big Splash will be in RF. A long-term solution is needed here. Estimate $16.0 - 18.5 Million and possibly more for a Free Agent, or Stroman plus others going out in trade. Either way, it will be expensive.

Going with Ezequiel Carrera and Melvin Upton JR in Left Field is weak and should be better. Estimate $11.0 - $14.0 Million for a good Left Field option. Of course that means you don't need Carrera, but who backs up Center, RF?

At First Base, Kendry Morales and Justin Smoak do not inspire confidence. Josh Donaldson has no one to back him up. Finding someone who could do both is very important. Estimate $5.0 - $12.5 Million could be needed.

The Bench will have Catcher, Smoak/1B,3B guy and Upton JR. To carry both Barney and Goins means a 6-man 'Pen, and that not going to happen.

Tentative Offseason costs: $48.0 - $70.0 Million indicate estimates of payroll might be a little light. What they need for the All-Star/Trade Deadline might govern what they can spend. Trading for (the right) pieces from someone else's surplus might be the answer.
greenfrog - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 12:21 PM EST (#336043) #
Do we even know whether Martin will be at full strength by spring training? It sounds as if his knee injury last year was quite severe. It wouldn't surprise me if his health issues started to mount in the next season or two.
SK in NJ - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 12:40 PM EST (#336044) #
I don't think the Mets are going to move Conforto. Looking at their outfield glut at the moment, both Bruce and Granderson have one year remaining on their deals. Those two are far more likely to get moved before someone as young and controllable as Conforto. It would likely take a lot to get him in a trade anyway, and with the Jays likely to hold on to their prospects, it's not a match. As mentioned, Granderson would be a good target. He has 1/15 left on his deal, can hit RHP, and grades out positively defensively in RF. Of course, between him and Bruce, I think Bruce is far more likely to get dealt since Granderson can cover CF, but if the Jays are targeting an OF from the Mets (realistically), then Granderson is the far more appealing option.

There is talk that Fowler is looking for $18M per year. On a four year deal, that would make it 4/72 plus the $ amount associated with a lost draft pick ($8-10M depending on how you want to look at it). That would basically match the 4/80 offer that they apparently had for Edwin. That's a pretty steep price, but if I had to bet on one of those two over a four year period, it would probably be Fowler due to age, skill set, and defensive value.

It really depends a lot on how the front office looks at the team's win curve. With the new CBA, winning while Donaldson is still here became a lot more important as there won't be a 1st round comp pick available if they lose him. That doesn't mean the FO will throw caution to the wind, but it might mean they'd be willing to lose a pick for Fowler (knowing they'll get two more anyway) while still holding on the prospect base that they'll want to start incorporating at the big league level within the next few years.
bpoz - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 12:56 PM EST (#336045) #
A season ending injury to Martin would be a huge loss to the defense and also to the pitching. I think that the offense can/will have to cover for his offensive loss.

If Osuna is lost our pen becomes too weak. Without Osuna in 2015 and 16 the pen would have been very weak. Probably too weak to compete.

I am confident that this FO values backup insurance.

If either or both of those injuries happen the timing is important. Where are we in the standings? Were we in contention at the time?

I see only 1 strong team in the AL next year as things currently stand. Cleveland is that team.

You have to be quite bad to not be in contention for the 2nd WC at the July 31 trade deadline. In 2016 we were in a good position regarding that 2nd WC spot.

In 2015 we were not in as good a position IMO.

In both years our luck held and we had very good seasons.

bpoz - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 01:04 PM EST (#336046) #
So this off season is the last off season for losing the 1st round pick.
Next Off season the pick is a lower round.

Sorry for having to rely on other Bauxites to explain these things.

Thank you for all your help, analysis and understanding.
China fan - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 01:09 PM EST (#336047) #
Here's a rather obscure technical question, but I'll ask it anyway: why were Burns and Colabello removed from the 40-man roster just a few days ago, instead of earlier when the Jays were finalizing their roster for the Rule 5 Draft? If I'm understanding this correctly, the Jays went with a 39-man roster at the Rule 5 deadline, which left Francisco Rios and Angel Perdomo (and others) exposed to the draft. It also left only one hole on the roster if they wanted to choose a Rule 5 prospect, limiting the number of players they can choose. But now they're down to 37 players on the 40-man roster because they have dumped Burns and Colabello. Why didn't they outright Burns and Colabello in advance of the Rule 5 deadline so that they could protect more prospects and have more flexibility?
bpoz - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 01:19 PM EST (#336048) #
That is a very good question CF.
I do not have an answer but now Burns can stay down without burning an option.
The other factor is that MAYBE they cannot be lost in the Rule 5 draft. But I am probably wrong about that.
uglyone - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 01:43 PM EST (#336049) #
"I am going with HitmenOF's budget of $160 mil as our budget. The amount of deep thought I put into this is zero. This amount seems likely."

reasonable, but again we ended up this season with a $160m payroll.

after the fan response, i'd be dissappointed if that wasn't increased for next year.
uglyone - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 01:45 PM EST (#336050) #
I also don't put much truck in trying to plan around "season ending" injuries.

If our top guys get severely injured, we likely don't win no matter how ingenius our depth moves are.
greenfrog - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 01:47 PM EST (#336051) #
Also, Shapiro said before the 2016 season that if the team had a successful season (which it clearly did), there would be ample resources available to add players for 2017 and beyond.

My guess is that the relatively weak Canadian dollar is having a dampening effect on payroll for next year.
uglyone - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 01:51 PM EST (#336052) #
new rumors have us targetting Mitch Moreland.

Moreland is another $10m maybe 1war guy, which unfortunately seems to fit this FO's MO.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 02:01 PM EST (#336053) #
Shi Davidi was on the Baseball Prospectus Toronto podcast a few days ago, and he said the payroll this year ended up about $152. He said he expects it to go up to around $160.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 02:01 PM EST (#336054) #
When signing Free Agents and making Trades, it's a much easier task when there's an open roster (25-man/40-man)space for the acquisition.

When deciding who should be protected in a Rule 5 situation, if they are more than a slightly possible two years away they won't be protected. Player advances/changes at the Minor League level and even the Major League level can happen fast.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 03:20 PM EST (#336055) #
Pre-2015 prospect Ratings:

Micheal Conforto #80
Dalton Pompey #30

At one point in time these guys were similar talents and both of them had rough years. Between Cespedes, Bruce, Grandson, Duda the corner spots are filled up for the mets and trading either of those guys won't get them a player capable of playing CF for them.

Id rather our front office go for true long term pieces than singing more more 1 war guys.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 04:00 PM EST (#336056) #
Micheal Conforto #80 Dalton Pompey #30

That's great! We can just play Pompey then. He's older than Conforto and has far more minor league reps. I suspect the Mets care approximately as much about a pre-2015 prospect rating as do all those who don't see Pompey as a major league option and want to see realistic outfield improvements.
bpoz - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 05:28 PM EST (#336057) #
Currently there are 8 outfielders on our 40 man roster.

I am only comfortable with Pillar. Everyone else has a question mark beside them.

Alford, Gurriel and Ramirez have no ML or AAA experience.

Cecialini and Pompey both have over 500 ABs in AAA. Pompey 600+. Neither was a failure. So both should be considered ML ready..... meaning more AAA time will not improve development much.

So IMO Upton and Carrera have locks on the 3rd and 4th OF spots.Upton is signed and Carrera was offered Arb.

So if we add a 9th OF (40 man) he has to be better than everyone but Pillar.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 06:47 PM EST (#336058) #
Conforto had a .725 OPS and a 0.4 war last year not a silver slugger.....Im just saying these are two former top prospects who haven't nailed down a regular spot in the majors so far and positionally it works better for both teams.
dan gordon - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 06:49 PM EST (#336059) #
Signing Moreland doesn't make much sense to me. His career OPS vs lefties isn't much better than Smoak's, so they'd be left with a hole at 1B or DH vs lefties - you play Morales, of course, but then you have to play one of the other two guys who are both pretty helpless against them. They need to get either a regular every day player, or, failing that, at least a guy to platoon with Smoak against lefties.
uglyone - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 06:49 PM EST (#336060) #
Mark Berman @MarkBermanFox26
#Astros owner Jim Crane:"We're going to the meetings still looking 4some pitching.I don't think we're done yet but we've made our big moves"
PeterG - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 06:52 PM EST (#336061) #
I think that the Jays interest in Moreland is more as an OF than 1b. He has played in the OF previously and could be platooned with Upton. 1B is just a place holding position for 2017.
Chuck - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 07:00 PM EST (#336062) #
Moreland as an OF sounds even worse than Moreland as a 1B. We're just getting over the trauma of seeing Colabello out there.
PeterG - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 07:14 PM EST (#336063) #
No comparison. Moreland, while no gold glover, has exhibited some ability to play the OF while Cola was just trying to learn and not doing it very well. I imagine this is not Plan A but a fallback position along with other such possibilities.
uglyone - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 07:14 PM EST (#336064) #
Holliday signs with Yanks.

@joelsherman1: Holliday will DH offer some 1b insurance for Burd. Means #Yankees are out on Encarnacion.
SK in NJ - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 07:35 PM EST (#336065) #
Holliday is a very good signing by the Yankees. I was hoping the Jays would be in on him, but wasn't expecting it after they signed Morales. Another Edwin suitor gone. The Jays gave him a very generous offer (4/80), he sought something better, and the Jays moved on. That should be the end of it unless he comes back at a discounted rate (specifically in years). Allocating so much money to DH/1B between Edwin and Morales would be foolish.

At this rate, as many of us predicted before the season ended, it might be Bautista as the one who is the better value signing as his market dries up.
cybercavalier - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 08:39 PM EST (#336066) #
Cecialini and Pompey both have over 500 ABs in AAA. Pompey 600+. Neither was a failure. So both should be considered ML ready..... meaning more AAA time will not improve development much. So IMO Upton and Carrera have locks on the 3rd and 4th OF spots.Upton is signed and Carrera was offered Arb. So if we add a 9th OF (40 man) he has to be better than everyone but Pillar.

These meanings tell us that the Jays have 5 outfielders: why should the Jays seek for a starting RF? For the lineup, Carrera can leadoff, Pillar batting last and Upton 7th behind catcher Martin while Upton cut down his strikeouts.
greenfrog - Sunday, December 04 2016 @ 08:46 PM EST (#336067) #
Shapiro is probably thinking, I could really use a Holliday right about now.
dan gordon - Monday, December 05 2016 @ 12:28 AM EST (#336068) #
Holliday has been a fairly steady decliner since he peaked at a WAR of 6.0 and a Colorado-aided OPS of 1.012 in 2007. Down to 0.8 and .804 in 2015 and 0.3 and .782 last year. A reasonable expectation might be for an OPS around .740-.750 on the road, with Yankee Stadium giving him a boost at home. He's had a tough time with injuries the last two seasons as well, playing only 183 games combined.
John Northey - Monday, December 05 2016 @ 01:24 AM EST (#336069) #
FYI: in case anyone was wondering if the HOF really has the ability to honor instead of insult it put Bud Selig in with 15 out of 16 votes. Ugh. Guess losing a playoff and being key in making drugs a big issue in baseball wasn't enough to keep more than 1 person from voting for this lousy commish. However, after Kuhn got in I guess it is just automatic that if you are commish for 10+ years you get in.

John Schuerholz got 16 of 16 votes. He ran the Royals when they were great in the 1981 to 1985 stretch plus was key for them for 1975 to 1981. Then ran Atlanta during they insanely good stretch from 1990 to 2005. He was a good choice and obvious one.

Final results...
John Schuerholz (16 votes, 100%); Bud Selig (15 votes, 93.8%); Lou Piniella (7 votes, 43.8%); Harold Baines, Albert Belle, Will Clark, Orel Hershiser, Davey Johnson, Mark McGwire and George Steinbrenner each received fewer than five votes.
Glevin - Monday, December 05 2016 @ 03:17 AM EST (#336070) #
The market for Encarnacion and Bautista is down to almost nothing. Encarnacion I can see in Texas or Toronto and Baitista could get a short term deal from a few teams but Houston, NYY, and Boston seemed like the most likely destinations and they all seem out of the running. Add to that that there are still guys like Trumbo, Napoli and Chris Carter out there for teas to choose from.
scottt - Monday, December 05 2016 @ 06:31 AM EST (#336071) #
Bautista's value is 1B/DH but he might not have accepted that.

Certainly,  with the new CBA, he might be better off playing on a 1 year deal and try again with not pick attached.

All the big spenders seems to have passed on EE. He might be a default solution if they can't get Fowler. In a way, inking EE would cost a pick as well. The 4 year deal has withdrawn. EE on 3 years is less risky.

Everybody seems to want starting pitching but there isn't much of that on the free agent market. GMs might be forced to trade for expensive players.

ComebyDeanChance - Monday, December 05 2016 @ 09:20 AM EST (#336072) #
The market for Encarnacion and Bautista is down to almost nothing. Encarnacion I can see in Texas or Toronto and Baitista could get a short term deal from a few teams but Houston, NYY, and Boston seemed like the most likely destinations and they all seem out of the running. Add to that that there are still guys like Trumbo, Napoli and Chris Carter out there for teas to choose from.

I'm concerned that Bautista might not even bring back a draft pick. he might sign a QO-level one year deal somewhere after opening day. He sure left himself a long way to fall with that press conference in February.
China fan - Monday, December 05 2016 @ 09:43 AM EST (#336073) #
The Jays have reportedly signed Steve Pearce to a two-year $12.5-million deal.

Good acquisition, and the Jays should still have a fair amount of money for further acquisitions.
ayjackson - Monday, December 05 2016 @ 09:45 AM EST (#336074) #
Can somebody refresh me on compensation - do bad teams (how bad?) lose their first or second pick if they sign a QO'd FA?
SK in NJ - Monday, December 05 2016 @ 09:45 AM EST (#336075) #
Big fan of Pearce. Good signing and fair price.

Now just have to hope he's healthy.
Gerry - Monday, December 05 2016 @ 09:46 AM EST (#336076) #
Winter meeting thread has been started.
85bluejay - Monday, December 05 2016 @ 09:48 AM EST (#336077) #
Jays are said to be ramping up talks with Steve Pearce - I guess they want to completely close the door on EE's possible return before it takes on a life of its own.
Richard S.S. - Monday, December 05 2016 @ 10:09 AM EST (#336085) #
Pearce 2 years 12.5 Million
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