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It will be Marco Estrada facing off against Kevin Gausman today. And on Wednesday, JA Happ goes against Dylan Bundy.

The lineups are very similar to last season. The Jays have Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce, the Orioles have Seth Smith.

Go Jays!

Lets Play Ball, or, Lets Win Two in Baltimore | 157 comments | Create New Account
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SK in NJ - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#340140) #
Liking the lineup today. Gibbons has to mix and match Zeke and Smoak based on the match-ups, so I'm fine with his logic for starting Zeke today.
Mike Green - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#340141) #
Extremely minor quibble about the lineup.  Martin hits 6th and Pearce hits 7th.  Those two ought to be reversed in the order.  Gibbons, however, can do that as many times as he pleases if he goes with Carrera in left and Pearce at first, as far as I am concerned. 

Baseball's back. 
uglyone - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#340143) #
Pearce could arguably hit 4th, but I don't mind him earning his way up.
Petey Baseball - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#340145) #
What was Pillar thinking there? That's the center fielders ball all the way.
China fan - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#340146) #
The broadcasters are suggesting that Pillar and Carrera both "lost it in the clouds" or something like that. But surely there should have been more communication between them.  Luckily it didn't hurt the team.
Petey Baseball - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#340147) #
That's two balls Pillar should catch. Very rarely he gets beat deep like that.
Mike Green - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#340148) #
He has however brought his patient spring training approach at the plate to Opening Day (at least).  Good thing.
China fan - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#340149) #
Kevin Pillar turning into a good-hit, bad-glove CF.
Petey Baseball - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#340150) #
Already muttering to myself here after that inning. Baseball's back.
China fan - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#340151) #
All hail the "internal analytics" on Carrera.
scottt - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#340152) #
There's like some sort of gloomy feeling of not having a real 4th outfielder in the air.
Petey Baseball - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#340153) #
It's been hard not to pull for Zeke Carrera. He's has so many big two out hits for this team in his Blue Jays tenure.
China fan - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#340154) #
".....There's like some sort of gloomy feeling of not having a real 4th outfielder in the air..."

Is there some reason for us to think that Pearce can't do the job?  If Carrera is injured, Pearce goes to LF and Smoak goes to 1B.  That should be fine, unless Pearce's defence is really bad.  It looked okay in the spring, but perhaps his arm is still less than 100 per cent.

Of course, in a real emergency, Goins can play LF....
Dave Till - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#340155) #
Three random notes from the later innings:

- Does Pat Tabler really say "acrost" instead of "across"? I think I heard this twice.

- Steve Pearce seems to be wearing pants that are too large for him.

- Kevin Pillar has taken classes from the Encarnacion School of Bat Launching - two in a row into the third-base stands. Fortunately, nobody was hurt. (Some Orioles fans started booing him - did they think he was deliberately aiming bats at the fans?)

And I like seeing Buck Showalter annoyed. Baseball's back. Hurray.
James W - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#340156) #
Some Orioles fans started booing him - did they think he was deliberately aiming bats at the fans?

They booed Estrada when he wasn't immediately ready to go after taking a comebacker in the leg.
dan gordon - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#340158) #
Yes, Tabler says acrost instead of across. His grammar is terrible. Of course, you also get the typical misuse of adverbs ("he runs quick", instead "he runs quickly", etc.) and stuff like "they were beat", instead of "they were beaten", things that are ubiquitous in our society these days. English usage has really changed in the last few decades. You used to at least be able to hear good grammar in the media for the most part, but not any more.
Dave Till - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#340159) #
I like what I've seen of Joe Smith. It's been ages since the Jays had a sidearming righthander - has there been anybody since Eichhorn? Having Smith does mean that the Jays will need two lefties in the bullpen or will have to bring Smith in before their lefty, as you can't let him pitch to somebody like Chris Davis.

Not sure yet about Howell. Perhaps it's all these years watching Cecil and Loup, but I'm not sure I want to see any more lefties with those big sweeping horizontal curve balls that start at a left-handed hitter's belt buckle and winds up two feet outside. Can't we just have some old-school strikes that stay near the plate?

And you've got to hand it to Jason Grilli. He's 40 years old, and he can still throw the fastball by a good hitter.
eudaimon - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#340160) #
Well at least we made them work for it. Tired out their bullpen a bit.
China fan - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#340161) #
Jays should have won that one.  They left 26 men on base!!   And the two-run Baltimore inning would have been only one run, at most, if Pillar had caught the double over his head.  It was very catchable, by his standards.  I believe he even took a step in, before realizing that he had misjudged it.
China fan - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#340162) #
As for Steve Pearce:  stay healthy, stay healthy!   He looks like a great acquisition.
#2JBrumfield - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#340163) #
Had Gausman on the ropes in the fifth but Bats and Tulo couldn't come through. Meet the new offence, same as the old offence.
China fan - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#340164) #
Regarding the LOB numbers:  I guess you can't just add up the numbers for every player, since some of the same runners were stranded by multiple hitters.  So the overall number of Jays runners stranded was 12, if my information is correct.  Still an awful lot.  They had enough hits to win the game, but didn't space them properly.
uglyone - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#340165) #
Pearce > morales
Mike Green - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#340166) #
Of course- a one run loss to the O's in April is a typical way to begin the season.

Gibbons and Showalter both managed well- it was all about which deep fly ball left the yard.
BlueJayWay - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#340167) #
Positives

-good start
-bullpen good
-got a lot of baserunners, keep doing that and they'll score a bunch
-one run loss means Blue Jays baseball has arrived

Looking forward to the summer...

SK in NJ - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#340168) #
That game resembled September 2016 baseball. Scoring a run felt like a miracle. Only one game, but frustrating to watch. Once it was a game of pens, you got the feeling the O's would win it (though the Jays pen did a solid job overall).

Split the series on Wednesday.
China fan - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#340170) #
If I had one quibble about managerial decisions:  why allow Darwin Barney to hit against Britton in the 9th inning?  Why not use Smoak, since the Jays were ready to send Pearce to LF later in the game anyway?

After typing the above, I checked their splits.  Shockingly enough, Barney does hit better against LHP than Smoak does.  So Gibbons does understand splits.  I'm still not sure that this data would convince me, however.  If Smoak cannot even be used as a pinch-hitter against LHP, his value diminishes even further.  Perhaps the blame lies in the Front Office, since someone like Upton would have been a better choice against Britton than either Barney or Smoak (or, of course, Goins),

scottt - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#340171) #
I don't get the talk about Goins be able to play left field or first base.
Why can't Pearce play 2B if someone gets hurt? Still feels like a 4th outfielder--a guy who can pinch run--would be more useful.

eudaimon - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#340172) #
Britton is one of the best in the game, I doubt Smoak would have done any better than Barney. I had a quibble with the move in that I thought Carrera should have been left in. He had hit well that game, isn't bad against LHP and could always have laid down a bunt. Plus he's fast, so if he got on base he'd have been more likely to score. I thought Gibbons overmanaged that one.

Anyways, today felt eerily similar to the September Blue Jay offense. But we were facing some pretty good pitchers, some of which we did good to even get baserunners on in the first place. And I think a couple of the guys were perhaps a little amped up today. Donny for one got out on a 3-0 pitch, and Bautista also expanded his zone in a hitters count.

China fan - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#340173) #
I assumed Carrera wasn't hitting in the 9th inning because his ankle had flared up after that earlier base-running incident where he seemed to have rolled over his ankle while trying to stop suddenly. 

But I didn't see any post-game commentary on that, so perhaps it really was just a pinch-hitting decision.

JB21 - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#340174) #
Edwin with a big game tying bomb #fun
uglyone - Monday, April 03 2017 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#340177) #
yeah smoak is bad enough against rhp....but should never, ever bat vs lhp.

barney can actually hit lhp.
85bluejay - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 06:02 AM EDT (#340179) #
At the start of the off season, Ross Atkins said the Jays wanted to get younger,more athletic, more speed and more left-handed - none of these were accomplished.

The Jays may be contenders but looking at bits and pieces of games on the opening days, what struck me was how old and unathletic the jays are.

Now in his 5th season in his second stint as manager, John Gibbons teams have never had a winning April(in this tenure)- Gibbons has been criticised for running a loose and undisciplined spring camp that's unprepared for the start of the season. Gibbons teams have also under performed their Pythagorean.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 06:55 AM EDT (#340180) #
i've pointed it out before, but shapiro/atkins have added almost exclusively old players in their time here.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 07:32 AM EDT (#340181) #
Biagini, Sparkman, McGuire, Ramirez, Gurriel...the front office has added several young players. I think the FO sees itself as being in a transitional period, shoring up the major-league roster with cheap or readily available veterans while avoiding trading away prospects. But they're no doubt looking for opportunities to add young talent as well. It's just that, apart from the draft, the team's position on the win curve isn't that conducive to adding a lot of young talent. In any event, the Red Sox under Dombrowski have traded far more good young talent than the Jays have under Shapiro, with (so far) less postseason success to show for it.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 07:59 AM EDT (#340182) #
The Jays are definitely old and unathletic as a whole, but in order to continue to remain competitive, what other alternative was there? There wasn't a prospect ready to take over a big league spot, and mid-tier free agency is usually going to involve signing players in their 30's. The only other option was trades, but the Jays did not have the prospect capital to beat offers for players like Sale or Eaton. Edwin, Fowler, Cutch, etc, who were all available in free agency or trade, are also in their 30's.

The way to get younger and more athletic without losing assets in the process is by developing your own talent. The Jays in 2017, and possibly 2018, are going to be walking a fine line between trying to remain competitive and building up the farm system at the same time without having to take a step back. Whether it works or not remains to be seen.

If the team is sub-.500 at the deadline, they might shift gears. It's likely a fluid situation, much like last season to some extent. If they are still in it mid-season, then we will probably see another Liriano/Benoit/Upton type of trade deadline where the team gets older. That's just where they are now.

Overall though, I agree. The team needs some youth/athleticism added. Would have been nice if Pompey won the LF job. At least there would have been some upside there.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 07:59 AM EDT (#340183) #
At the start of the off season, Ross Atkins said the Jays wanted to get younger,more athletic, more speed and more left-handed - none of these were accomplished.

I always took that to mean going forward for the next few years the team would gradually be transformed into that. Not that it would happen in one off season. Particularly with this group. This past offseason they were keeping the core together to try to contend again, and adding supplemental free agents to it. You don't get younger in MLB free agency.


Mike Green - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#340184) #
Pompey and Tellez are the two players who could add youth and left-handedness to the club's lineup.  Pearce was a good addition despite being older and right-handed; Reddick and Fowler were the two players who were available in the free agent market and might have leveled out the lineup a bit.  I have no idea whether either was interested in playing here.
China fan - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#340186) #
But if we're discussing yesterday's game, the main defensive mistakes were made by Kevin Pillar, one of the most athletic (and young) players on the team. I don't expect him to make many of those kinds of mistakes in the future. Mistakes occasionally happen, but there is definitely youth and athleticism in CF, and lots of athleticism at other key positions like 2B and SS and catcher. (Tulo and Martin are not young, but they are still incredibly athletic and they are great defenders.)

As for the hitting: the Jays left a lot of runners on base yesterday, but again the culprits were top hitters like Bautista and Morales, and I don't think there are a lot of "younger and more athletic" hitters that I'd prefer to see in those RBI situations. They are good hitters, they just didn't get the job done yesterday.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#340187) #
The handedness issue plays a role, particularly in the late innings.  It is hard for the club to string together hits against a RH reliever like Givens or Brach (or O'Day).  With the day off today, the O's weren't worried about Gausman running up his pitch count and turning the ball over to the bullpen early.  The way he was pitching though (trying to get the hitters to chase a lot and falling behind), the Jays could easily have blown the game open.  The circumstances of the game and the O's approach to it were inclined to a Blue Jay blowout win or an Oriole close win.  Which does fit a pattern...
uglyone - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#340188) #
"I think the FO sees itself as being in a transitional period"

they do, obviously.

which is weird, given the team has gone to back to back ALCS.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#340189) #
It is strange.  Yes, the club is somewhat on the old side, but the older players generally were great before and can be expected to be decent or better than that now.

It wouldn't shock me at all if Tellez comes on, and by June, we are thinking about an offence with Donaldson, Travis, and Tellez at  its core.  Youneverknow.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#340190) #
The older players the Jays added are good (Pearce/Morales) so that certainly helps short-term. That was the objective. They did not have a prospect to take over so they went with a good vet. What will help the Jays tremendously is if one or two prospects can make an impact mid-season (Tellez, Pompey, Guirrel, etc).

Left field/first base (whichever Pearce is not playing) is such an easy hole to fill in that sense that it would be hard not to upgrade from Zeke/Smoak. Having someone like Tellez come up and make any sort of contribution would be great.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#340191) #
It's not that the older players aren't good, it's that their risk of injury increases from year to year, making those players less reliable producers as time goes on. We're likely to see some of that attrition in 2017 and 2018.
Parker - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#340192) #
"I think the FO sees itself as being in a transitional period"

"they do, obviously.

which is weird, given the team has gone to back to back ALCS."


Which would you prefer? An aging roster of guys who were traded for young talent who go back-to-back ALCS?

Young pickups?

Both, maybe? Are we just talking about video game baseball at this point? Normally, anyone hired to manage $500M worth of a baseball franchise doesn't actually trade young team-controlled superstars. They trade declining veterans on giant contracts when they want to rebuild.

"i've pointed it out before, but shapiro/atkins have added almost exclusively old players in their time here."

Yes, you've said that. And you've said that the Jays should stay competitive by bringing in solid players with established value. Why don't you provide some examples of established young players that any organization would be willing to trade to the Blue Jays?

It sounds like you're saying the Jays should acquire young players while maintaining their existing level of talent. Maybe they should just trade for Kershaw and Trout and call it a day?
bpoz - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#340193) #
Salty and Morales are switch hitters, so that addresses the left handedness somewhat. I don't know how you can use them as pinch hitters though.
To get younger and faster we probably have to do a rebuild. Maybe just a small one. Bautista is likely gone next year. So what he provides in offense this year is lost. If healthy he will get his share of HRs, BB and RBIs.
We may as well be optimistic about individual performances. Bautista's last minute addition was huge. It looked like pride or being stubborn was going to prevent him playing for the Jays. I thought so anyway. With him we have a better chance at the post season IMO. Of course I don't know who his replacement would have been and how much offense he would provide.

uglyone - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#340194) #
"Which would you prefer?"


Why don't you tell me what you wanted/want the Jays to do?
Parker - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#340196) #
I guess what I'm asking, uglyone, is what you would do differently. You're already on record about the awful mistake the Jays made by not signing David Price to a $210M contract that already looks bad after one year.

The Jays are a defending ALCS champion, so they should keep it going, right? Should they have offered more money than Cleveland to retain Encarnacion?

Oh wait, THEY DID.

I'm just curious about the upgrades you would have made if someone gave you the GM job of the Blue Jays organization.

You keep advocating for Pompey as a starting ML left-fielder when he's never been able to hit in the Majors and has small-sample defensive issues to boot. Also, looks like he can't stay healthy.

Oh wait, though, now you like replacement-level Carerra in LF.

I guess when you have time to make forty posts a day, you've earned the ability to change your opinion as often as you want to?

How would the uglyone Blue Jays be managed differently?
uglyone - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#340197) #
Eh, not gonna start this up again day two of the season.

I think it's clear to everyone, even you, that management has been treating this team as if (and i quote) it's in a "transition period", rather than trying to add/keep impact pieces.

Maybe you think that's a good strategy, or maybe you think they had no choice, and that's fine.

For me, after decades of struggles interspersed with a couple brilliant teams, I think this team was a rarer opportunity that deserved a more full out effort.

That being said, if this team can keep it together and win a championship without management having to make any more significant sacrifices - far from impossible - then everyone comes out smelling roserific.

Parker - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#340198) #
"Why don't you tell me what you wanted/want the Jays to do?"

I don't run a Major-League baseball team, and I don't think I'm actually qualified to do so.

But since you asked, I'd spent a lot of money on drafting and development. Great free agents don't want to sign in Toronto, so the organization should work on developing their own internal talent.

They should ACTUALLY do what Anthopoulos said they were going to do. Build a system. Trade surplus assets when you need missing parts. DO NOT SELL THE FARM WHEN YOU'RE AN 85-WIN TEAM. DO NOT TRADE FOR OTHER TEAMS' FREE-AGENT CONTRACTS.

You whine so much about the team getting older, and you whine even more about the team not doing what it takes to compete. It's almost as if you don't understand anything about baseball economics. At all.
John Northey - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#340199) #
For the Jays there is young talent it just is in the minors right now. From Vlad at 3B to Tellez at 1B. From Anthony Alford in the OF to Lourdes Guerriel Jr pretty much everywhere. While Richard Urena and Bo Bichette try to get to the point that they can push Travis off the team.

In the majors the only sub 30 guys (all over 25) on offense are Travis, Goins, and Pillar. For pitching it is Biagini, Loup, Stroman, Tepera. Sanchez and Osuna aret tne sub 25 guys with Leone at 25.

40 man roster sub 25 are Urena, Alford, Ramirez, Gourriel, Borucki, and Pompey. Sparkman is 25. I expect before the year is out we'll see Alford and Gourriel and Pompey get some playing time in the OF auditioning for LF and RF.

The team will be getting younger in 2018 and beyond. 2017 was just too soon after two ALCS appearances.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#340200) #
"They should ACTUALLY do what Anthopoulos said they were going to do. Build a system. Trade surplus assets when you need missing parts. DO NOT SELL THE FARM WHEN YOU'RE AN 85-WIN TEAM. DO NOT TRADE FOR OTHER TEAMS' FREE-AGENT CONTRACTS.

You whine so much about the team getting older, and you whine even more about the team not doing what it takes to compete. It's almost as if you don't understand anything about baseball economics. At all."


That's fine.

I just don't understand why you're not criticial of management for not taking the opportunity to get young assets for our aging stars while we can.
Parker - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#340201) #
I think it's clear to everyone, even you, that management has been treating this team as if (and i quote) it's in a "transition period"

Citation needed.

Maybe you think that's a good strategy, or maybe you think they had no choice, and that's fine.

For me, after decades of struggles interspersed with a couple brilliant teams, I think this team was a rarer opportunity that deserved a more full out effort.


Fans of 25 other MLB teams say the same thing! Are you really that narrow-minded?

That being said, if this team can keep it together and win a championship without management having to make any more significant sacrifices

The team only got to this point by making significant sacrifices! There are no more significant sacrifices left to make! Should they trade Rowdy Tellez for Matt Holliday?

Everything you're complaining about is because there's nothing left in the minors for two more years, because the Anthopoulos failed mandate fell short. I get that you hate the new front office, but part of their job is to NOT gut the upper minors. All they're doing is bringing in older players? Wow. How are you going to do anything BUT bring in older players when the previous regime traded away the upper half of the minor-league system in order to fail to win the World Series?
uglyone - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#340202) #
"Fans of 25 other MLB teams say the same thing! Are you really that narrow-minded?"

are there 25 other teams that have just gone to back to back LCS?
Parker - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#340203) #
I just don't understand why you're not criticial of management for not taking the opportunity to get young assets for our aging stars while we can.

Jesus, I'm almost banging my head against the monitor at this point. You don't actually get young stars by picking up other teams' gigantic contracts! Do you have some kind of developmental disability that prevents you from learning basic facts about baseball management?

Parker - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#340204) #
are there 25 other teams that have just gone to back to back LCS?

None that actually won.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#340205) #
My favorite thing about you, Parker, is that you condescend even while unable to grasp basic logic.

Why can't you answer simple questions? Why are you always avoiding them?
uglyone - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#340206) #
"You don't actually get young stars by picking up other teams' gigantic contracts!"

I mean this statement doesn't have anything to do with anything I've said.

And yet you think you're the one banging your head in frustration.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#340207) #
Is it just a reading thing? dyslexia maybe?

Did you think I said "young stars" when I said "get young assets for our aging stars while we can"?
China fan - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#340208) #
"....DO NOT TRADE FOR OTHER TEAMS' FREE-AGENT CONTRACTS....."

I'm not sure why you'd want to impose this rule.  Veterans with strong leadership skills, like Tulowitzki and Martin, were the heart of the most successful Jays team of the past two decades -- and the most successful team in the league over the past two seasons, if we judge by which team managed to reach the finals for each of the past two years.  Obviously other players were crucial too, but I really don't know if the Jays would have done so well without Tulo and Martin in particular.  Martin handling the pitchers, Tulo providing crucial defence, and both providing crucial leadership.  And yes, their salaries are a burden on the payroll, but they might have been the final piece that pushed the Jays over the hump into the playoffs.  So do you refuse to trade for them (Tulo) or sign them (Martin) because of their salaries?  I don't think we should be so dogmatic about it.  Even if you write it in ALL-CAPS.
pubster - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#340209) #
I think Jays management is doing a good job.

Who's side am I on? Parker's or UO's?
China fan - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#340210) #
"....nothing left in the minors for two more years.... gut the upper minors....  traded away the upper half of the minor system...."

Wild exaggeration doesn't win arguments.

"...the Anthopoulos failed mandate fell short...."


Failed?  You sound like someone who will never be happy unless your team is winning the World Series every season.


bpoz - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#340211) #
I think I wrote this before. " A GM (Shapiro) keeps his job if he pleases the owners". IMO this means win enough at an affordable cost ... Budget limitations. Ownership will set the budget and also the acceptable level of winning.

I expect our window of contention to end when our good hitters/players leave for more money or some other reason. Other good hitters/players like Martin and Tulo will eventually get old. I cannot see resigning them to more than 1 or 2 year deals when their contracts end in 3-4 years.

Our window consists of first getting into the post season by winning our division or one of the two WC spots available. I don't fear Boston because they are up and down. In 2013 and 2016 they won 90+ games. In 2014 and 2015 they won under 80 games. The NYY are not a beast as well.

Both those teams are our direct competition. For many years they both made the post season. Being rich was a major factor. I am sure ownership understood that they would outspend us. With the luxury tax, being rich is a smaller factor than it used to be.

NYY dealt with being old. A Rod And M Teixeira. A youth movement through internal development and trades.






CeeBee - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#340212) #
"Who's side am I on? Parker's or UO's?"

Why do you have to pick a side?
Parker - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#340213) #
"....DO NOT TRADE FOR OTHER TEAMS' FREE-AGENT CONTRACTS....."

"...and Martin, were the heart of the most successful Jays team of the past two decades..."


Could we just stick to the facts?

The Jays didn't trade for Martin.
Parker - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#340214) #
Signing a free agent is one thing.

Trading assets for the ugly half of another team's free agents is somehow the same thing?

What am I, crazy?
Parker - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#340215) #
I mean, a team either does the Oakland thing and never signs big-ticket free-agents. Or a team signs everyone's free agents like the Dodgers or the Yankees.

Or a team develops players and trades for controlled talent like the Red Sox or the Injuns or the Cubs. If you're not the Dodgers or the Yankees, you have to figure out a way to not win the World Series without throwing away the top half of your farm system.
bpoz - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#340216) #
This is a passionate discussion. I don't think uglyone or Parker have to win anything.

Saying the goal is to win the WS is not totally true. The best team most often does not win the WS. Sometimes the WC winner wins the WS. Anything can happen in the post season.Last year Cleveland and Baltimore lost in extra innings.

So just get there and hope that Stroman and Osuna can win us the WS by beating the other teams which IMO are better. ie Jays in with 88 wins. Win the AL against someone with 98 wins and then the WS against someone with 100+ wins.
China fan - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#340217) #
"....The Jays didn't trade for Martin....."

As I clearly pointed out in my post. 

But by your logic, you wouldn't have traded for him with his existing contract if he had become available.  Your bias is against any high-priced veteran, when obviously a team can benefit from high-priced veterans if they are part of the right mix of players.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#340218) #
May I suggest, gentlemen, that a lighter touch is in order here?  Nuance is good.  Humour (especially of the self-deprecating kind) would be welcome.  But carping at each other...well, it gets old quickly. If a lighter touch is impossible, maybe it's time to take a little break. 
China fan - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#340219) #
".....Or a team develops players and trades for controlled talent like the Red Sox or the Injuns...."

First, can we avoid the racist terms, please?

Second: are you really touting the Red Sox as the great "role model" for the Jays?  They have a far higher payroll, as you know, and the Jays will never be lucky enough to have such a payroll.  Second, the Jays have done much better than the Red Sox in the playoffs over the past two years, which shows that you can succeed with a good acquisition strategy -- even if you don't have the big bucks that the Red Sox enjoy.
85bluejay - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#340220) #
Will be surprised and disappointed if the jays don't take advantage of roster space to take a chance on some interesting players/prospects made available - I like Castro & Goeddel but there are several interesting names - so far, Schultz & Sparkman remain on the 10 day DL.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#340221) #
"I mean, a team either does the Oakland thing and never signs big-ticket free-agents. Or a team signs everyone's free agents like the Dodgers or the Yankees.

Or a team develops players and trades for controlled talent like the Red Sox or the Injuns or the Cubs. If you're not the Dodgers or the Yankees, you have to figure out a way to not win the World Series without throwing away the top half of your farm system."


How is it that a back to back ALCS team, with controllable players at the top of all of the rotation, bullpen, and lineup, and a projected playoff team this year again, isn't filed under one of your "successful team building strategies"?

And if it's a failure as you say, again, why aren't you clamoring to trade our stars for what young assets we can get?
Gerry - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#340222) #

maybe it's time to take a little break.

A longer break can be organized too.

uglyone - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#340223) #
Shout out to Joey Bats aka Joey Guns for 2 outfield assists last night. He had 5 all year last year.

Even better that they both came on legit good fielding plays instead of just surprising some kid trying to take advantage of the old man in RF.
krose - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#340224) #
Yes! Because it's always ugly to see some young gun trying to take advantage of an old man out in right field. Go Bats!
bpoz - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#340225) #
Back to back ALCS appearances is great. It definitely increased fan interest. But we had to go through a lot of bad moves and bad luck to get there IMO.

The Marlin trade was bad IMO because more was expected from the players acquired. Dickey was ok, not bad. Thor turned out much better than anyone expected. Mets and Jays. But the good part was that payroll got increased from about $80-90 mil to about $130 mil. We needed a bigger payroll.

The bad luck was the 2015 ST injury to Stroman. It brought us a closer, Osuna. I believe that was going to be the job of Sanchez.

Then all kinds of other stuff happened. Trades, bat flips and HRs.
dan gordon - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#340226) #
"A longer break can be organized too"

Yes, please.
Dave Till - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#340227) #
The trouble with analyzing farm systems and their production is that I have begun to think that it's all just luck. Mike Trout, the best baseball player on the planet, was drafted 25th in his year. And, while some scouting directors and GMs are smarter than others, I don't think that the Angels were smarter than 22 other teams. (It's 22, not 24, because two teams had two picks before #25.) This is especially true given that the Angels' farm system has become awful in recent years.

Having said that: it's undeniably true that the Jays' system has been very bad at generating hitting talent recently. The only farm system product in the starting lineup is Kevin Pillar. And it's not as if they traded hitting prospects - they just traded pitchers. Thor is a Mighty Norse God of strikeouts, but he's not a hitter.

Was this due to a focus on drafting bulk pitching, after seeing a bunch of their best starting pitching prospects all get hurt? I dunno. But at least the tank is starting to fill again: Tellez, Vlad Jr., Gurriel, and probably Alford and Bichette are legitimate hitting prospects. If these guys can move up quickly, the Jays might not have to endure a Phillies-type period of badness before returning to contention.

But who knows? Like I said, I think a lot of it is luck.
dan gordon - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#340228) #
Rotoworld has their mlb Power Rankings out. It's a ranking of how good each mlb team is. They have Toronto 9th. The rest of the AL East - Boston 3rd, Baltimore 13th, NYY 16th, Tampa Bay 18th.
Parker - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#340229) #
...you wouldn't have traded for him (Martin) with his existing contract if he had become available.

No, I would not have. To sign a free agent, you generally spend more money than any other team is willing to, and you acquire that free agent at the beginning of his FA contract. What you do NOT do is trade away assets in order to pick up the back end of that player's FA contract.

are you really touting the Red Sox as the great "role model" for the Jays? They have a far higher payroll, as you know, and the Jays will never be lucky enough to have such a payroll. Second, the Jays have done much better than the Red Sox in the playoffs over the past two years, which shows that you can succeed with a good acquisition strategy -- even if you don't have the big bucks that the Red Sox enjoy.

Boston WON a World Series in 2013. Five years later, Boston has one of the strongest farm systems in all of baseball, even in spite of some ugly trades in the last few years. The Blue Jays got kinda close twice, after they traded away their top four prospects, and DIDN'T win ... and they now have what could be charitably described as a farm system ranked in the middle of the pack. When the Blue Jays have a ridiculous amount of young controlled talent and three or four of the top prospects in baseball a couple years from now, I'll happily concede your point.

It's NOT a payroll thing... or mostly not a payroll thing. It's the ability for some teams that don't ever draft very high to still figure out a way to consistently come up with consensus top prospects in their systems and figure out the best way to get the maximum value out of them. Using them to acquire bloated contracts signed by other teams is perhaps surprisingly not always the best way to maximize the value of those assets.

How is it that a back to back ALCS team, with controllable players at the top of all of the rotation, bullpen, and lineup, and a projected playoff team this year again, isn't filed under one of your "successful team building strategies"?

I know you regularly say some really foolish and shortsighted things, but... wow. Just wow. That's some dumbass homerism even by your standards. I'll just let you run the numbers on what you said. Seems like you have enough free time.

And if it's a failure as you say, again, why aren't you clamoring to trade our stars for what young assets we can get?

Um... wow, holy crap, maybe because nobody else wants to give up actual assets in order to pick up hundreds of millions of dollars worth of contract weight?

Over the last couple years there have some really head-shaking "contributions" from certain posters here that I really just can't ignore, as much as I want to, and I apologize to everyone else for my antagonistic responses.

I guess I'll just stick to FanGraphs in future.

Salut, and best wishes.
lexomatic - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#340230) #
There are times where it is reasonable to trade for the free agent contract another team has signed.

I'm not sure you can discount payroll from your Boston example, without going through all the transactions and how it lead to draft picks. I'm not asking you to do that, but we all know the old compensation system was a joke.

I'll go into more detail later but I'm onmy phone and won't have access for a few hours.I just can't get as worked up as your writing suggests relating to these issues.

uglyone - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#340231) #
"I know you regularly say some really foolish and shortsighted things, but... wow. Just wow. That's some dumbass homerism even by your standards. I'll just let you run the numbers on what you said. Seems like you have enough free time."


So you are honestly arguing that a back to back ALCS team, projected to make the playoffs for the 3rd year in a row, with controllable players atop the rotation, bullpen, and lineup is NOT a succesful team building strategy? (while at the same time praising teams with less success and a lesser current roster?)

huh.


"Um... wow, holy crap, maybe because nobody else wants to give up actual assets in order to pick up hundreds of millions of dollars worth of contract weight?"

and you are also arguing that none of the veteran blue jays have any trade value? not even Donaldson? not even your boy Happ? Did you see what the Yankees did with their (older and lesser) vets?

One day you'll look back and realize that you actually convinced yourself that it was silly to think that a back to back ALCS team was a good team, and that its core players had any trade value. And ran screaming around the internet trying to insult anyone who disagreed. And you'll shake your head.

jerjapan - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#340232) #
Was this due to a focus on drafting bulk pitching, after seeing a bunch of their best starting pitching prospects all get hurt?

Dave Till, I do believe AA's FO was explicitly focused on pitching in their drafts.  I can't explain their exact rationale, but I've never been worried about our (in)ability to develop position players.  I'm worried about our ability to develop players, period, which we've done in spades.  My assumption is that they always felt (rightly or not) that pitching was harder to come by, and that they could trade for the position players they needed.  I've crunched the draft numbers before and AA's tenure was dramatically tilted towards pitching. 

AA said upon being hired that he wanted 'waves and waves' of prospects emerging as valuable assets - whether that be for the Jays or as trade currency.  He succeeded in that goal.  It's his trade legacy that is more problematic, but he has several huge wins on his ledger - Donaldson and Wells the obvious ones.   I actually seem him as an above-average trader but one who might have benefited from being more conservative with young talent - I still hate that we just punted Sam Dyson for no reason.  But who do we really miss from the Marlins deal?  Anthony Desclafini?

I think the main issue with people's impression of the former FO is the Dickey deal.  It stings to lose a generational talent like Thor, particularly when Dickey underwhelmed - but it was a reasonable roll of the dice.  Would we be where we are right now if AA didn't go all-in on improving the big league team? 

None of these deals happen in a vacuum.  If AA isn't aggressive, we don't lose Thor, or gain JD.  Trade prospects or not, sign big ticket FA's or not - ultimately, I'm skeptical of any dogmatic approach.  The most 'wrong' moves can also be the new market inefficiencies. 
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#340234) #
Having said that: it's undeniably true that the Jays' system has been very bad at generating hitting talent recently. The only farm system product in the starting lineup is Kevin Pillar. And it's not as if they traded hitting prospects - they just traded pitchers. Thor is a Mighty Norse God of strikeouts, but he's not a hitter.

This has been an issue for a while. Who is the last position player that the Jays drafted and developed (or signed as an amateur free agent and developed) who was actually pretty decent? Aaron Hill? Adam Lind? Pretty thin gruel.

It's hard to contend when you're not coming up with anything on the position player side of the diamond. It forces you into overpaying for free agents or trading your existing players or pitching prospects to get hitters.
China fan - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#340235) #
When we go to Batters Box, do we really have to read a guy using insults like "dumbass" and "foolish" to attack another guy?  It really demeans the entire experience of Batters Box, which tries to be an intelligent site with high standards.  It drives people away.  How can we even engage in debate when one specific guy routinely pulls out his bazooka to attack anyone who disagrees with him?
jerjapan - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#340236) #
Agreed China, but apparently that specific guy is bowing out from the site.  Perhaps best for all parties.

BlueJayWay, I'd love to hear your comments on my last post - I see no issue whatsoever with our failure to develop hitting talent as long as we are developing tons of pitching talent. ( And Kevin Pillar is clearly a counter example to your argument.)

Why does there have to be an even distribution in terms of prospect development?  If the FO felt their advantage was with pitching - and managed to develop / draft and trade a ton of quality pitchers - why does it matter if we lag behind in position players?  Best talent available is still the best drafting philosophy IMO.  

And I'd still put us in the top five / ten teams in terms of the talent we have developed during the 2010s. 



China fan - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#340237) #
"....How is it that a back to back ALCS team, with controllable players at the top of all of the rotation, bullpen, and lineup, and a projected playoff team this year again, isn't filed under one of your 'successful team building strategies'?...."

For the record, I agree with uglyone's points there. 

And I tend to disagree with the frequent argument that it is always wrong to trade away prospects in exchange for high-priced veterans.  It occasionally leads to the loss of a good prospect, but even from a long-term perspective it can often be justified or mitigated.  Nobody likes the loss of Syndergaard, but that was an exceptional case and we often forget that Dickey helped the Jays to reach the playoffs twice.  He wasn't the best pitcher on the team, but he ate innings and he played a role.  After more than 20 years in the wilderness, I think a lot of fans were willing to see Anthopoulos do whatever was necessary to get the team into the playoffs.  It's not an easy thing, and he did it.

But most cases aren't like Syndergaard.  A more typical case is the Tulowitzki trade.  Two years later, what did it cost the Jays?  The only real loss was Hoffman -- who didn't even make the Colorado rotation this season.  Hoffman might become a good major-leaguer, or he might not.  Not every prospect becomes a major-league regular, and we don't know for certain about Hoffman, despite his pedigree and his flashes of success last year.  In any event, even if Hoffman becomes a good major-league pitcher, I would accept his loss in exchange for a cornerstone player who played a crucial role in getting the Jays into the playoffs.  (By the way, in that same trade, the Jays also got a reliever who helped them in 2015, and they were able to dump Reyes and save his salary to offset some of the Tulo salary.)   I think those kinds of trades are very defensible.  Beyond the wild generalizations about "gutting the system" and "trading the farm," if you look a little closer, there are really only two or three prospects who were a substantial loss to the Jays in all of those trades.  And you have to give up something to get something.
jerjapan - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#340238) #
there are really only two or three prospects who were a substantial loss to the Jays in all of those trades.

I'm thinking one giant example, but wondering who you have in mind for the others?
PeterG - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#340239) #
If I am not mistaken, the highest priority of the present FO is to greatly improve the developmental system. If successful, and they seem off to a good start, we should see more players coming up through the organization.
bpoz - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#340240) #
jerjapan, I think along the same lines as you, some what. Lets be open minded in our analysis of farm system evaluation.

Every team has duds. But the duds had potential like Deck McGuire. When you add up all the potential you could get a high ranking by the people ranking farm systems.
Eventually reality decides that D McGuire has clearly under performed his evaluation and someone else has over performed his evaluation like K. Pillar.

I believe in being patient. In a few years the players contributing to the high and low ranking will reveal the accuracy. Many will disappear and the survivors will provide a true evaluation.
Our 2010-2013 system has finally produces values. Now we can compare opinion VS reality.
pubster - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#340241) #
Apparantly Kershaw will make more this season than the entire 25 man roster of the Padres (who he pitched against in the opener).

bpoz - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#340243) #
That is insane pubster. Cheers !!!
uglyone - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#340244) #
you know who didn't trade away good prospects?

JP and Ash.

You know who did?

AA and Gillick.
bpoz - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#340245) #
Uglyone, I love your posts. You are so optimistic. M Young. Cheers !!!

Richardi, maybe did not.
PeterG - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#340246) #
Didn't Ash trade Michael Young for Esteban Loaiza?
Gerry - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#340247) #
I did communicate through email with Parker a month or so ago and specifically asked him to avoid getting into arguments with uglyone. I asked uglyone to do the same. Parker promised to try but obviously he could not control himself. Uglyone is not blameless here either.

It is always difficult for me to draw a line between spirited discussion and discussions that go too far over the line. I try and stay out of it as much as I can as my rope is shorter than most others. It helps me if other posters call out people who cross the line, that tells me I should get involved and issue a warning.

Parker has not been banned, in case he is reading this, but I would say he is on his last chance. I am reminded of the cartoon that many of you have probably seen where a husband says to his wife "I can't come to bed, someone is wrong on the internet".
China fan - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#340248) #
"....I'm thinking one giant example, but wondering who you have in mind for the others?...."

Well, if we are going back to 2013, then Syndergaard of course, and probably Norris.  Of all the others, I'm not sure which ones will be a substantial loss to the Jays.  Probably Barreto, but the Jays got an MVP for him.  Probably DeSclafini.   Maybe Boyd and Hoffman. Who am I missing?  D'Arnaud seems to be fading for the Mets.  For all the talk of "gutting the system", the Jays only lost one elite player and a couple of other pitchers who might not have even cracked the current Jays rotation.  And that's over a three-year period, and the trades led directly to two playoff appearances.
pubster - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#340251) #
"It helps me if other posters call out people who cross the line"

Gerry, I'll volunteer to call people out who cross the line.

=)
scottt - Tuesday, April 04 2017 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#340252) #
Nobody likes the loss of Syndergaard, but that was an exceptional case and we often forget that Dickey helped the Jays to reach the playoffs twice.

The problem with that argument is that Syndergaard was better than Dickey in both of those years.
Syndergaard was traded so that the Jays could have Dickey in 13 and 14 and not wait until 2015.
That backfired spectacularly.
And the Jays also gave away D'arnaud and Becerra in that trade. It was hardly  a one for one and getting Thole and Nickeas does not count for anything.
jerjapan - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 12:10 AM EDT (#340254) #
Scottt, would you not agree that you can't discuss trades in isolation?

I other words, don't we have to view AA and his team based on net returns over the course of his tenure, not their worst transaction? 

Dr B - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 02:27 AM EDT (#340255) #
my rope is shorter than most others.

Gerry, you have the patience of a saint, and the tact of a diplomat.

eudaimon - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#340262) #
The Dickey and Marlins trades were easily AA's worst. Still not disastrous (and most of us were very excited at the time), but clearly the team wasn't ready to contend after the trades and that seemed like the main point of the deals. I guess there was some bad luck too (Josh Johnson turning into a total pumpkin upon his arrival for one) but that isn't what made us miss the playoffs.

I'm an AA fan and prefer to chalk those trades up to the growing pains of one of the younger GMs in the league. I think his body of work otherwise is pretty impressive (including the drafts) and I expect he'll make a great GM eventually (I'm hoping in Montreal).
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#340263) #
Anthopoulos as the General Manager of the Expos would make for a great story.  Blue Jays vs. Expos in the World Series in 2030?  One can only dream. 
eudaimon - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#340264) #
Yup, that would be fun. My conspiracy theory is that Anthopolous is turning down interviews because he knows he eventually wants the Montreal job. He is from here, after all.
China fan - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#340267) #
"....Syndergaard was traded so that the Jays could have Dickey in 13 and 14 and not wait until 2015...."

Let's be honest and admit that nobody knew that Syndergaard would be so good by 2015.  Lots of people were high on his chances, but lots of people were high on the chances of a lot of prospects who never pan out, or who turn into middle-of-the-pack regulars.  Lots of people thought that Nicolino or d'Arnaud could turn into stars too. 

"....
The problem with that argument is that Syndergaard was better than Dickey in both of those years...."

The Jays acquired Dickey because they knew they would have him under control for 4 years, and they wanted to make a playoff run in all of those years.  They made the playoffs in two of the four years in which they had Dickey.  That's pretty good, in my view.  He wasn't the biggest contributor to their playoff drive, but he was a contributor.

It's true that AA basically adopted an "all-in" strategy in 2013 and began pushing hard for the playoffs.  Four years later, it's clear that the strategy worked: the Jays reached the playoffs in two of those four years, the attendance and viewership has soared, the team's revenue has soared, its payroll has increased, it is able to invest more money in all areas of operations, and the team is on an entirely different trajectory from what it was in 2013.

And in exchange for that success, yes, the Jays lost Syndergaard and Norris and a couple of middle-of-the-pack pitchers.  But the team didn't sell the farm. It didn't sell its youth.   The organization still has a lot of excellent young players:  Sanchez, Stroman, Osuna, Biagini, Travis, Guerrero, Pompey, Tellez, Alford, Urena, Reid-Foley and many others. 

I don't have a problem with AA's "all-in" strategy.  When you make a bunch of trades, it's inevitable that you're going to lose some good players who might ultimately do better than the players you acquire.  In this case, it was Syndergaard and probably Norris and maybe a couple of others.  That's not a bad price to pay for transforming the team into a very successful franchise on the field and financially.

pubster - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#340268) #
I personally thought Syndergaard was going to be a monster (I'm guilty of thinking most Jays top prospects are going to be great).

I also thought d'Arnaud was going to be a perennial all star.

And Dickey was an old guy who threw 88.

It is the only AA trade I didn't like.
China fan - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#340269) #
I remember at the time that a lot of people here were very enthusiastic about Syndergaard, and a lot of people expressed a lot of pain at seeing him depart.  The enthusiasts about Syndergaard were right.  But a lot of great-looking prospects never pan out.  If you acquire a large number of players by trade (Donaldson, Tulowitzki, Price, Dickey, Buehrle, Reyes, Estrada, Happ, Travis, Lowe, Hawkins, etc, etc), you will inevitably lose a player or three who become very good.  That was equally true in the 1990s, by the way.
pubster - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#340270) #
I have no problem trading prospects.

My biggest problem in the trade was getting back an old guy who only throws 88.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#340272) #
I loved selling high on TDA, and hated giving up Noah (though I'm just as guilty as having wanted it to be Sanchez in that trade instead).

But what killed that trade for us is that Dickey just wasn't very good. If he had been a legit #1SP for us (not even cy calibre), it wouldn't have stung quite as much. But he was just a good innings eating mid rotation guy.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#340273) #
anyone hear if Bolsinger cleared?
jerjapan - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#340274) #
I didn't mind that Dickey was an old guy without much velocity - knuckleballers are a breed unto themselves, and it actually seemed like a move that might end up being buy-low.  Even the extension Dickey signed was cheap given that nobody really knew if he could keep up his Cy Young success.  But given that the Mets were actively shopping him, and that the market for him seemed cautious, I thought that both of D'Arnaud and Thor was too high a price to pay.  I would have been fine with him even if he'd been a number 3 calibre starter, but he was always too erratic in TO to be more than a reliable innings-sponge.

I really liked the Miami deal though, and while Johnson's collapse certainly tarnished our side of that deal, I don't see it as a huge loss given that the talent given up hasn't accomplished that much. 

AA in Montreal would be awesome. 

uglyone - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#340276) #
Gavin Floyd has been released. Guess he's toast for real this time.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#340287) #
Parker is right when he says there is a difference between signing Martin for five years and trading for him at the tail end of his contract. It's entirely different in terms of cost in dollars/assets lost, plus expected return in terms of performance.

AA structured the Martin deal so that the first two years were pretty safe bets to be surplus value, and the tail end of it would be the most expensive + the least productive for the player. The totality of the deal will look better when all is said and done because of the value generated in years 1 and 2 of that deal. If the Jays were to hypothetically trade assets to acquire Martin in a trade where another team got those first two years and the Jays were stuck with 2017-19 for $60M, then yes, it would be a massive difference.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#340288) #
and yet, Yadier Molina was just handed $20m per year until age 37.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#340291) #
FWIW, I liked the Martin signing at the time. I thought with pitch framing value tacked on that he was a reasonable bet to exceed the value of his deal.

Regardless, signing an older free agent and trading actual assets for an older player on a free agent contract are two entirely different things. You can like signing Martin while also thinking that trading for Tulo (for example) was a mistake. There's nothing conflicting about that viewpoint.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#340292) #
Molina is kind of a perfect comp actually. A guy with a decent bat, but regarded most highly for his Pitcher Whispering. Just like Martin. Both are 34 years old this year.

Last Year

Martin: 535pa, 99wrc+, 1.9fwar, 1.7bwar
Molina: 581pa, 113wrc+, 2.4fwar, 3.0bwar

Last 2yrs

Martin: 1042pa, 106wrc+, 5.3fwar, 5.0bwar
Molina: 1111pa, 97wrc+, 3.8fwar, 4.4bwar

Career

Martin: 5682pa, 106wrc+, 34.7fwar, 35.0bwar
Molina: 6157pa, 100wrc+, 33.3fwar, 33.3bwar



Martin makes $20.0m for the next 3yrs until age 36....in what are supposed to be the "bad" years of his contract.

Molina makes $14.0m this year, then $20.0m for each of the next 3yrs after that from age 35-37 - so they're paying him for one more year of age related decline, and without the benefit of the first 2 "good" years of the contract to make the bad years worth it.

And this is the Cards were talking about - they know a bit about how to run a baseball team.


pubster - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#340294) #
The Cards signed Molina to a 3 year deal.

The Jays signed Martin to a 5 year deal.

The longer the deal the more risk for the team.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#340295) #
5yr deal starting at age 32.

3yr deal starting at age 35.
Four Seamer - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#340296) #

so they're paying him for one more year of age related decline, and without the benefit of the first 2 "good" years of the contract to make the bad years worth it.

Leaving aside the fact that the Cards will have reaped the benefit of 14 good years from Molina before the 3 year extension kicks in, I'm not sure I entirely follow.  Even accounting for the two good years of Martin's contract, the Jays are only paying $6 million less over the 5 year term than the Cardinals over the two years preceding the extension and the extended three years.  The AAV of Molina's 5 year deal is only $1.2 million more, which considering salary inflation is hardly significant, and is less than 1% of the Jays' annual payroll.  Martin's deal strikes me as fair value, but I don't see it as any kind of bargain compared to the Molina deal.        

Four Seamer - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#340297) #

5 yr deal starting at age 32.

3 yr deal starting at age 35.

I think pubster's point is obvious, but surely to take an extreme example you wouldn't argue that a 20 year deal signed at age 20 has similar risk features to a 1 year deal signed at age 39.

92-93 - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#340298) #
Earlier in the offseason I believe it was you, uglyone, who asked what Tulo & Martin would get as FAs, and I answered something very close to what was left on their current contracts. Molina's extension seems to suggest that to be accurate with respect to Martin. While it may have looked like the Jays slightly overpaid to bring Martin north, it was a glaring organizational hole and the deal is working out quite well for the team, even with the back-loaded terms.

Speaking of Martin, was anybody else surprised Gibby didn't PR for him in either of the opportunities he had late in Monday's game? I thought with Salty around that Gibby would be less reluctant to remove Martin from games.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#340299) #
Well I was seeing the basic idea that the remaining 3yrs of Martin's contract, from ages 34-36 at $20m were tantamount to dead money - an overpayment with negative value, whose only justification were the first 2yrs of positive value to balance it out.

And yet here we see Molina, by all measures a very similar player, getting the exact same 3yr/$20m deal that remains from Martin's negative value years of his deal, except at a year older.

uglyone - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#340300) #
Sight for sore eyes:

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#340301) #
I suspect that Gibbons is leery (for good reason) of throwing Saltalamacchia into tight games late.  In the spring, opponents were running wild on him.
China fan - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#340302) #
"....Speaking of Martin, was anybody else surprised Gibby didn't PR for him in either of the opportunities he had late in Monday's game?...."

Martin seems perfectly healthy and in great shape this year, which is good.  And yet -- small sample size -- he still doesn't seem to be hitting well this spring.  I admit that I'm judging that from his pre-season games and the first Baltimore game, which may be a very irrational thing to do.  It's way to early to fret, and yet I find myself a little worried about him.  However, judging by recent years, he can be streaky.  Maybe he'll go on a tear soon.

As for his back-up catcher:  I'm worried about teams running wild against Salty.  It will be interesting to monitor.  If it costs the Jays one or two bases (by opposition runners) on average per game, Salty's hitting should more than compensate for that. But it's a concern. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#340303) #
Pearce in left-field and Smoak at first base tonight.  Too bad- Carrera's hot!
China fan - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#340304) #
The lineups for the first two games suggest that Pearce will be a full-time player (health permitting) while Carrera and Smoak will both be part-time players.  That could work.  But if either Smoak or Carrera is consistently good (or if the other is consistently bad), they could force the issue and turn it into a full-time job.  Let's just hope that both of them aren't consistently bad.
pubster - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#340305) #
You got my point four seamer!
SK in NJ - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#340307) #
Martin in 2017-19 won't be "dead money" (unless he falls off a cliff), but likely won't be what he was in 2015. That's how aging curves usually work for players his age. The price in free agency is typically to add years in order to get the free agent to sign with the expectation of the back-end being less valuable.

Molina getting a "thank you" contract in his late-30's doesn't mean he is exempt from decline either.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#340308) #
Are the Cards usually in the business of handing out sentimental contracts?
SK in NJ - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#340309) #
Pearce playing everyday while Gibbons mixes and matches with Smoak and Zeke is the only way this configuration can work. Neither Smoak or Zeke are everyday players so Gibby will have to work around it.

As long as Pearce plays everyday, I'm happy.
China fan - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#340310) #
I'm a little surprised that the Front Office hasn't acquired anyone from waivers or released players or minor trades in the past couple of days, especially with at least three spots available on the 40-man roster.  They released Upton and DFA'd Bolsinger, and they can place Schultz and Sparkman on the 60-day DL any time they want, and they've only had to add Saltalamacchia to the 40-man in recent days.  So by my count, that's three available spots.  There should be lots of available players floating around.  They did add Coghlan on a minor-league deal, which was a smart move, but I would have thought there would be more moves by now, especially considering the general lack of pitching depth in the top levels of the system. 

jerjapan - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#340313) #
Agreed China, some of the players available right now are better than people on the 40 man.  another Coghlan or two would be pretty valuable - any names you'd like added or dropped?
China fan - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#340314) #
The Jays are said to be the frontrunners to sign a 15-year-old Brazilian phenom who already boasts a 95 mph fastball.  Last October he became the youngest player ever in a WBC game.  Is he the next Guerrero in the system?  More about him here:

https://clutchlings.blogspot.co.za/2017/04/blue-jays-said-to-be-front-runners-to.html

scottt - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#340315) #
Scottt, would you not agree that you can't discuss trades in isolation?

I'm totally unrestricted when it comes to discussing trades.

"The Jays acquired Dickey because they knew they would have him under control for 4 years, and they wanted to make a playoff run in all of those years.  They made the playoffs in two of the four years in which they had Dickey.  That's pretty good, in my view.  He wasn't the biggest contributor to their playoff drive, but he was a contributor."

The 4 years is very misleading here. Dickey had only 1 year remaining under his contract and was willing to sign a 2-year extension with a team option because he was coming off a career year and the Mets were not interested in extending him.

This looks a lot more like the Pomeranz trade than the Sale trade to me, except for what the Jays gave in return.
China fan - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#340316) #
"....he was coming off a career year and the Mets were not interested in extending him...."

When someone wins a Cy Young, it is by definition a "career year."

It's misleading to imply that the Mets were trying to dump him because of expected poor performance.  Dickey posted a cumulative 6.4 WAR over his four years with the Jays.
Spifficus - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#340317) #
Ok, it needs to be said - Bundy's command is pretty impressive so far.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#340319) #
more hits and walks in both games but nothing where it counts.

need some big flies.
eudaimon - Wednesday, April 05 2017 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#340320) #
Smoak looked good tonight. He might have actually recognized a curveball, and got a double against one of the better relievers in the game. I'd love if he made me eat crow after all the crap I've said about him over the last year or so.
scottt - Thursday, April 06 2017 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#340321) #
The Mets were trying to cash in, in the same way the White Sox have been trying to cash in this winter.
Nobody expected Dickey to duplicate his Cy Young success. That's why he could be extended for reasonable money.
Dickey's last year was for 5M, that's pocket change and AA was on that because of Rogers'payroll parameters.

For fun I checked the December 2012 mlbtraderumours posts.

It says the Rangers were offering Mike Olt and Cody Buckel. 
The Orioles and the Angels were also in the picture.
Oh, how I'd like to see what they were offering.

The Orioles reminded me of the Erik Bedard trade that sent Chris Tillman and Adam Jones to Baltimore.
It looks terrible now and it's really not hard to find DMs willing to overpay when they think they are on the verge of contention.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 06 2017 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#340322) #
If you didn't see Kevin Pillar's catch last night, I would suggest you watch it.  My take:  Pillar was playing very deep for Machado, got a poor read on the ball and took a couple of steps to his right on the ball over his head and recovered to make a fine catch (sacrificing his body in the process).  I suspect that if you look at  Pillar's starting position and velocity/exit angle of the ball off the bat, it's a 40-50% play. 
Gerry - Thursday, April 06 2017 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#340336) #
Reports suggest the Jays are about to acquire Luke Maile who has DFA'd by Tampa at the weekend. There has been a lot of suggestions that the Jays are looking for alternatives to Salty due to his throwing problems.

No word yet on the return to Tampa.
Gerry - Thursday, April 06 2017 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#340337) #
The Jays already have three catchers in Buffalo, Ohlman, Graterol and Monsalve. If Maile is going there then another catcher has to go.
uglyone - Thursday, April 06 2017 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#340339) #
sounds like he's a waiver claim, not a trade.

and I'm not sure they think Ohlman is actually a C.

Good news that I was a bit iffy on - Bolsinger cleared and will report to Buffalo.

Leaves us with a solid staff in Buffalo I think - Bolsinger, Latos, Lawrence, Harrell, Oberholtzer (House).
China fan - Thursday, April 06 2017 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#340340) #
Luke Maile is reported to be an above-average defender, with at least an average arm.  He helps to provide an alternative for the Jays if they decide that Saltalamacchia is allowing too many stolen bases.

I wonder if Ohlman will get a lot of time at 1B and DH at Buffalo, to allow room for Maile.  Or they could just demote one of the other two.  But I think they want Ohlman to stay in Buffalo -- they like his bat.
PeterG - Thursday, April 06 2017 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#340341) #
AS you will know, from my posts during the off season, I have never been a fan of Salty. I would prefer that he is replaced.
Thomas - Thursday, April 06 2017 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#340342) #
I heard Harrell was heading to the DL, so I think Bolsinger will probably just take his spot in the rotation.
PeterG - Thursday, April 06 2017 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#340343) #
I think Ohlman will basically be a DH who does a little catching and plays occasionally at 1b.

With 3 catchers already in Buffalo, something has to give. If Meile goes there, maybe Monsalve is dismissed. That is a good possibility but I wonder if Meile might come straight to TO with Salty on the way out. It will be an interesting situation to resolve.
Mike Green - Thursday, April 06 2017 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#340344) #
Interesting lineup tonight against the lefty.  Pearce leads off, followed by Donaldson, Bautista, Morales, Tulo, Martin, Smoak, Pillar and Barney.  Gibbons certainly isn't stuck on conventional lineup roles.  Good for him.
uglyone - Thursday, April 06 2017 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#340346) #
please be a precautionary/planned/geteverybodyin1stseries day off for Travis.
jerjapan - Thursday, April 06 2017 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#340347) #
Maile likely needs to show some success with the bat in AAA before he's considered an option - he's had impressive results with the bat in AA and below, but has struggled in AAA and the bigs.

Sounds like he's a solid defender though.

We've got a few catchers now with MLB experience / upside in the system. Ohlman is indeed more of a bat, but Graterol and Raffy Lopez in AA have had big league cups of coffee. With McGuire figuring to get the bulk of playing time in AA, perhaps Monsalve is on the way out.
Mike Green - Thursday, April 06 2017 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#340348) #
please be a precautionary/planned/geteverybodyin1stseries day off for Travis

Barney has pretty significant platoon splits while Travis so far has reverse splits.  If you are going to give Travis a day off, choosing to do that against a LH starter makes a lot of sense.
dan gordon - Thursday, April 06 2017 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#340349) #
Maile looks like a nice pickup for a waiver claim. He only just turned 26 in February. He was promoted fairly aggressively in the minors, skipping rookie ball and advanced A completely. He is still developing as a hitter, so there is some upside there. His 2016 numbers are noticeably better than in 2015, and it will be interesting to see if he can make further strides this year. Maile used to draw walks at a much better rate in the lower minors up to AA, and that may be an area he can work on.

Add Jarrett Grube to the above list of Buffalo's starters, so with Bolsinger they now have 6 healthy candidates, with Harrell being #7 when he's back. With that many options, maybe somebody comes up with a really good season and eases some of the worries about an injury to the Jays' rotation.
PeterG - Thursday, April 06 2017 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#340350) #
Could the Maile claim have been influenced by Martin being hit in the finger last night. Perhaps too it is simply an opportunistic move as Maile does appear to have some upside.
85bluejay - Thursday, April 06 2017 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#340351) #
Looks like Brett Cecil has taken his April act to St. Louis.

Also, Jays draft pick Chase De Jong got a rude ML debut awakening from George Springer last night - at least he's in the show.
scottt - Friday, April 07 2017 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#340386) #
The ball that sticks to the catcher is a brand new act.
Kinda glad we didn't see that in Toronto.

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