No Panonne, but Y Diaz makes it. However there are probably 10 more that can be exchanged with the last 5 players listed. A Perdomo for instance.

The 50 grade on Alford is relatively surprising. I would have thought he would have been more of a 55/60

Interesting for me, BA has Gurriel as a future starter but not Hernandez or Pompey.

I see how the Jays leapt 12 spots up.

13 NR players are on the list.

I suppose we can fall 6-10 spots next year. Vlad, Bo and Pearson should keep us top heavy, with Pearson moving up the BA 100 list.
Oliveras and Greene have been traded.

Alford, Jansen, Urena and Borucki should play enough in the ML to be ineligible. All in the top 10. 1 spot will be "given" to our top draft pick.
About 10 spots should be available on the 30 list. Tellez, C & H Ramirez added to the 4 top 10 and 2 traded that I eliminated. The missing #10 J Romano is my surprise performer in the ML pen.

If healthy 2 of Zeuch, Maese, P Murphy and DJ Neal may move up strongly. Neal seems to have excellent tools. He hit V well but in the GCL. He needs to earn his way to Lansing fast.

Alford looks like a typo (60?). I can understand having Pearson as higher ceiling then him, but I can't see a logical argument for Gurriel other than "his brother is good".

I like the way they do the list because it's not a pure ranking so you see that someone like Urena has a higher likelihood of making the majors but probably as a utility sort of player is ranked ahead of someone like Noda who has better potential outcomes but also more risk. The only thing I don't like is the projected future lineup. Just seems very silly. A couple of thoughts:

Alford is too low. I think he's pretty clearly a 55. Gourriel is too high. He profiles as utility guy generally I think.

I know I'm the high guy in Maese but leaving him off a top 30 is all sorts of wrong, imo.

And imo they're lowballing zeuch as well.

but gurriel? eh....I sure hope he shows something - anything - this year.

Vlad Guerrero Jr's risk is high and Ryan Borucki's is medium?  Why would anyone think that?  Maybe they mean that the risk is high that Guerrero Jr. won't be a franchise player rather than merely an All-Star. 

I get that BA focuses on tools and draft order/signing bonuses etc, but sometimes I think that they just fall head over heels in love with particular players.

it's tough.

vladdy and bo would be high risk simply because they haven't reached AA yet. which makes some sense.

But a case like alford gets really tough. I could see a case for him being a High Risk 60 (because of his 5 tool upside that hasn't quite shown yet) or a Medium Risk 50 (because his speed and performance so far give him a solid floor at least).

Last year in spring training, I mentioned that I didn't expect much from Gurriel in 2017 and was going to give him a mulligan because of his lengthy layoff from competitive baseball and that 2018 was going to be the show me year - I was encouraged by his solid AFL stint and have heard very positive comments about his bat his spring - I think he's going to have a breakout year and be with the team sometime in 2018.

OK, uglyone.  If your risk assessment is by mechanical application of rules- passed through double A equals medium- then you can have Borucki and Alford as lower risk prospects than Vladdy.  What good is it though? Surely if you are doing a serious risk assessment, you want to take into account age, injury history etc.

Alford is a 55 grade. That was a typo. Noted and corrected.

Great to see. I'm putting together a compilation of all of these lists to be public once the last of the ones I'm waiting for comes out - John Sickles list.

He has a preliminary breakdown up now.
A: Vlad & Bo
A-: none
B+: none (he has 4 B's he is debating putting here)
B: 5 guys, B-: 7 (1 or 2 could be B's), C+: 24, C: the rest.

Last year he had no A's for the Jays, Vlad & Reid-Foley & Urena B+'s; B's for Gurriel, Alford, Tellez, Jon Harris (B-/B); B-: T.J. Zeuch; B-/C+: Conner Greene, Justin Maese, Bo Bichette, Angel Perdomo; C+: J.B. Woodman, Max Pentecost, Joshua Palacios, Reese McGuire, Harold Ramirez; C/C+: Ryan Borucki, Francisco Rios, Zach Jackson, Dwight Smith; C's: Angel Alicea, RHP; Danny Barnes, RHP; Travis Bergen, LHP; Cavan Biggio, 2B Will Browning, RHP; D.J. Davis, OF; Jonathan Davis, OF; Matt Dermody, LHP; Yennsy Diaz, RHP; Jose Espada, RHP; Roemon Fields, OF; Chad Girodo, LHP; Emilio Guerrero, 3B; Dusty Isaacs, RHP; Danny Jansen, C; Bradley Jones, 1B-3B; Juan Kelly, 1B-3B; Jason Leblebijian, INF; Tim Mayza, LHP; Ryan McBroom, 1B-OF; Patrick Murphy, RHP; Reggie Pruitt, OF; Jordan Romano, RHP; Glenn Sparkman, RHP

Hard to see Alford not moving up to a B+ based on this past season's success. It's a little sad to see how far Urena and Reid-Foley have slipped, on the other hand.

Sickels' breakdown suggests what we generally thought about the Jays system - two great prospects, not great depth (only 14 above C+ is below-average).

is that actually below average?

sickels has the braves with 17 guys clearly above C+ and an 18th marked B-/C+.

padres with 15 clearly above, and 4 more marked C+/B-.

yankees with 12 clearly above C+, and 4 more marked B-/C+.

phillies with 11 clearly above C+, and 8 more marked B-/C+.

white sox with 10 clearly above C+, and 1 more marked C+/B-.


and those are generally considered teh top-5 systems in baseball.

Yeah, I actually think the Jays do have pretty good depth prospect-wise, and stoked to see another top ten ranking.  Worth remembering that Sickels has a pretty strict ranking system and the grades often seem low at first glance.  I'm as surprised as anyone that Guriel is ranked 5th but his career path does make him hard to read, as 85 noted above.  BA are pretty tools-focused, so I'm encouraged to see them ranking him 5th - hopefully they see something that doesn't show up in the stats we have available.  Agreed that Zeuch is too low, and that Maese should be on the list - he's top 20 to me.  Ramirez still being ranked is the head-scratcher to me - his ceiling is Dwight Smith Jr. in my books, whose ceiling is Ezekiel Carerra.

Noda is interesting - I wasn't prepared to call him a top 30 prospect till he repeated, even given his monster year, but I recently read that he'd been considered a 3rd round talent who slipped for reasons I can't recall.  Seeing him ranked top 20 here and on MLB pipeline has changed my position on him a fair bit. 

Awesome game for us prospect-watchers today - Bo, Vlad and AA had 12 ABs, with 9 hits. - 2 doubles and a triple for AA.  and personal fave non-prospect J-Leb continues to show power and versatility - I still see him as a legit MLB backup IF. 

Who the heck is Alejandro Melean? 

Alejandro Melean:
http://m.mlb.com/player/678287/alejandro-melean

Melean was an international signing last summer for $775,000. Was ranked #32 overall. He's from Venezuela, a right hander with 92 mph sinking fastball and a very good curve.

Thanks guys, it's fun having names crop on these lists that I don't recognize - it's been a while.

Sickels list is up and it's another interesting one - Borucki 4th and Pearson 5th, Riley Adams 9th, Samad 12th - props to you guys, most people talked Samad up round here and the industry concurs. 

He also has Bichette as top five in the game. 

Money quote:  I am too traumatized by the ghost of Jose Pett and his hype back in the 90s to rank Pardinho higher in such a deep system.

Another exciting review of our minor leagues. 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/3/8/17097712/toronto-blue-jays-top-20-prospects-for-2018

I stand corrected on the amount of depth implied by Sickels' depth chart - we are well above the median of the other organizations.

Sickels' list is notable for many of the reasons mentioned by Jer above, but I would note his continuing optimism on SRF - giving him a straight B even though he acknowledges both his poor results last year and a drop in velocity, ranking him seventh.

One other interesting choice - Carlos Ramirez is 13th at a B-/C+ but Tim Mayza is out in the wilderness as a C - I prefer Mayza.

breaking out of lurker mode just to say -
A. I'm stunned that Maese and Pannone aren't on the BA list
B. I'm even more stunned that Harold Ramirez is
C. I'm told the depth chart portion has Biggio ahead of Samed Taylor which...everyone else seems pretty high on Taylor so that just seems really weird
D. Hiraldo and Jiminez in the top 15 is very interesting. Getting 3 top 15 guys in one international class would be remarkable

They're still highly draft order focused. I don't think anyone would rank Warmoth so high based on tools alone.

They've dropped Alford from 60 to 55.
Tellez from 55 yo 40.
Urena, Pentecost, Borucki from 55 to 45.
SRF, Zeuch from 55 to 50.
Harris, Maese, Harold Rarmirez, Perdomo, Murphy, Zackson  from 50 to 40.
F Rios, Palacios from 45 to 40.

Guerrero has risen from 65 to 75.
Bichette from 55 (extreme) to 65.
Jansen from 45 to 50.

Mostly a reflection that most prospects don't make it and the average value has dropped because many prospects have moved out of the low minors. You will not get a 60+ rating playing at AAA unless you're hitting .400 or have an ERA below 2.0. There a lots of guys who put decent numbers at AAA but can't produce in the big leagues.

Harold Ramirez with a 40 rating is no more than a 4th outfielder. He's still high in the order because someone figures he's a medium risk even though he's been on a free fall for a long time and needs to re-invent himself just to reach the majors.

According to  Baseball reference, Carrera is a 0.3 WAR career player.
Smith 's ceiling is more like 2 WAR per season.
Who could have figured what Pillar's ceiling is?

of course, it makes no sense that alford or borucki's ratings would go down in any way after the years they had.

Final Sickels list is up.
https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/3/8/17097712/toronto-blue-jays-top-20-prospects-for-2018

A: Vlad & Bo (shocking I know)
B+: Alford
B/B+: Borucki, Pearson
B: Jansen, Reid-Foley, Warmoth, Adams, Zeuch
B-: Reese McGuire, Samad Taylor
B-/C+: Carlos Ramirez, Richard Urena, Thomas Pannone
C+: Tellez, Pentecost, Joshua Palacios, Eric Pardinho, Ryan Noda, Cavan Biggio, 2B; Maximo Castillo, RHP; Mc Gregory Contreras, OF; Hagen Danner, C; Roemon Fields, OF; Ryan Gold, C; Taylor Guerrieri, RHP; Lourdes Gurriel, 2B; Jon Harris, RHP; Zach Jackson, RHP; Tim Lopes, 2B; Justin Maese, RHP; Deck McGuire, RHP; Connor Panas, OF; Orlando Pascual, RHP; Angel Perdomo, LHP; Yorman “Not the Reds Guy” Rodriguez, C; Jordan Romano, RHP; Dwight Smith Jr, OF; Kevin Smith, SS; Kevin Vicuna, SS; Chavez Young, OF

Phew, lots of C+ which lands under the 'building depth' area.

He also lists...

OTHER INTERNATIONAL SIGNEES OF NOTE: Miguel Hiraldo, 3b; Leonardo Jimenez, 3B

OTHERS OF NOTE: Maverik Buffo, RHP; Andrew Case, RHP; Kacy Clemens, 1B; D.J. Davis, OF; Jonathan Davis, OF; Yennsy Diaz, RHP; Jose Espada, RHP; Jose Fernandez, LHP; Yeltsin Gudino, SS; Emerson Jimenez, RHP; Bradley Jones, 3B; Juan Kelly, DH; Zach Logue, LHP; Tim Mayza, LHP; Patrick Murphy, RHP; Eduard Pinto, OF; Reggie Pruitt, OF; Harold Ramirez, OF; Francisco Rios, RHP; Chris Rowley, RHP; Justin Shafer, RHP

Also "I think the two guys at the top are pretty good, don’t you? I feel sorry for Dwight Smith and Cavan Biggio, two bloodline players who could be pretty useful for someone but are buried behind all this talent."

Also "I think the two guys at the top are pretty good, don’t you? I feel sorry for Dwight Smith and Cavan Biggio, two bloodline players who could be pretty useful for someone but are buried behind all this talent."

Does he mean it sorta feels as if being a bloodline player is supposed to count for something? Aren't Guerrero and Bichette ALSO bloodline players?

(not sure what happened with that last comment)

I'm not sure that our system is so deep that we would ignore Biggio and Smith just because they aren't as good as Guerrero and Bichette.

I think we are ignoring them because they aren't very good (at least right now).

bloodlines aren't that big of a deal, but they aren't nothing either - growing up around the game, with someone close to you who can provide high level coaching from the first time you step on a diamond, has to be significant - although if anyone has any actual studies or data on this, I'd love to see a link.  Pardon my reference to another sport, but just look at Steph Curry.

But agreed, Smith Jr. and Biggio look like marginal prospects to me. 

Tim Mayza actually pitched 17 innings with the big club last year. You would think he would merit a C+ for potential, or at least be grouped with those from the low minors who have a long way to go yet.

Anyone who doesn't consider Danny Jansen's vision problems (astigmatism) being corrected by Glasses last Offseason as significant is either lazy, distracted or not very good. All his Offense prior to last year comes from his vision issues. Last year's results came from using proper eyewear. Which is a fairer measure of his talent?

If Guerrero and Bichette are as good as they appear to be, it will be interesting to see whether the Jays can keep them beyond the team's six years of control (which would likely extend to the players' age-26 or 27 seasons). At what point should the team make a serious pitch to keep the players long term? It's not hard to imagine both players being excellent into at least their early 30s.

At a minimum the Jays should probably be thinking about negotiating a Longoria-type contract (six years plus team options for the subsequent three years) -- for a lot more money, obviously. Longoria signed that contract right at the outset of his MLB career. If the team waits too long, they may find themselves in a Harper-type situation. Of course, they might find themselves in that situation no matter what, if Guerrero has Harper-scale financial ambitions or a desire to play in a different city.

It takes two to tango with contracts, so if the players are not up for it then there's not much you can do, but the first real test for the Shapiro regime will definitely be with Vlad/Bo and potential long-term extensions. I'd have no issues signing them very early (in their first year) if they look like the types of impact talent that they are projected to be. Both players look like they can be up to the majors in their very early 20's, so the Jays can go 8-10 years and pretty much cover all of Vlad/Bo's prime years. Might be hard for 20 year old's to turn that down. The Jays went seven years with Gurriel, who is not the type of talent that Vlad and Bo are, so I could see them going beyond 7 years, especially if the extensions start at age 21-22. There's always risk, but if I'm getting a player's age 22-30 seasons, it's a lot better than waiting until they are 26-27 and then signing them to free agent money.

Again, a lot will depend on the players. Hopefully, Scott Boras is no where around either one.

A year ago I thought it was necessary to wait and see the play in the list to get a better idea, and I think that's been the case. At this point, I'm not so concerned with where people are ranked vis a vis each other, or what number BA (or MLB Pipeline, or Sickels for that matter) attach to a player or the farm system, as I am with the look of the list as a whole.

When Atkins spoke to STH's at the Winterfest event, he mentioned the different level of interest that other teams have for Toronto's minor league system. Two years ago, there were a small number of players on the 'interesting' list, which the team couldn't move due to the sparcity of minor league talent. This past offseason, he observed that there was a whole different level of trade interest in Toronto's minor league system. Ross noted (perhaps indiscreetly but I can't blame him n the tenor of the meeting) that Woodman wasn't internally viewed in the top 30 but they were able to attain value in a trade for him.

My own view of the list at this point is there is a handful of players where they would have to be blown away to trade the player. I'd list Vlad, Bo, Anthony, Nate, and Lourdes in that group (the latter I think because they'll want to see how he performs this year when he's not coming off a long layoff and switching countries).

Then there is a healthy list of guys who could be solid major league producers - Jansen, Zeuch, Borucki, Pannone and Maese (I agree wth Tammy on these two) but who could be moved In the right deal or retained.

Then there is a good 'let's have a nice long look' list of youngsters who they likely won't trade without a good chance to see what they've got - Warmoth, Adams, Pardinho, Hiralda, Jiminez, Smith and Danner.

And finally, there's org depth guys - Pentecost, SRF (who could move up if he can bounce back), Tellez, McGuire, Noda - who may provide some trade value as well.

What I think this means overall is two things. First, we're moving in a good direction. I can't remember when Toronto last had the catching and mid-infield organizational depth it now has. And second, it's going to be even more interesting to see how the list looks next year after drafting in the 12-spot, a better place than they've had since 2014. I would have been stunned if they had undermined that draft spot with a QO free agent signing and am glad they didn't. So I'm really looking forward to seeing how next year's list looks with a year more of play and with the 2018 draft complete. Stay the course, guys. You're doing a good job.

"Mariano never made that much."

Actually, he did. The real (inflation-adjusted) value of the $15m salary Rivera earned in each of 2008 and 2009 is greater than the $17.4m QO for 2018.