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The Blue Jays return home for a three-game pit stop against Ryan Goins and the Royals...maybe! Update - Monday's game is postponed.


Series Schedule - Revised

Tuesday at 3:07 pm ET (DH) - Eric Skoglund (0-1, 9.64) vs.Jaime Garcia (1-0, 3.18) / Danny Duffy (0-2, 5.40) vs. J.A. Happ (2-1, 3.94)
Wednesday at 4:07 pm ET - Ian Kennedy (1-1, 1.00) vs. Aaron Sanchez (1-1, 3.66)

The Royals have lost five in a row to conclude a 1-6 homestand. Seattle took two of three before the Los Angeles Angels took three in a row before being rained out Sunday. Kansas City is last in the AL Central with a 3-10 record, five games back of Minnesota.

The Blue Jays are coming off a one-game sweep of Cleveland in Ohio to complete a 5-2 road trip. Toronto trails Boston by three games in the AL East with a 9-5 mark.

On Deck - A visit to the Bronx Zoo for a four-game series beginning Thursday.

Blue Jays vs. Royals - April 16-18 | 212 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Richard S.S. - Monday, April 16 2018 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#356311) #
The repairs needed arenít that complex, just expensive. Getting the right people in to do the job, is the job. The rest is just money.
Mike Green - Monday, April 16 2018 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#356312) #
Tonight's game is postponed. DH tomorrow.
scottt - Monday, April 16 2018 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#356313) #
I guess we'll have to drop the 8th reliever for a 6th starter.
BlueJayWay - Monday, April 16 2018 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#356314) #
The Jays have only had to play one game since they put Donaldson on the DL.
dan gordon - Monday, April 16 2018 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#356315) #
Biagini is scheduled to pitch on Wednesday, so would be unavailable for the Saturday start. They could skip him, but then he wouldn't have pitched for 12 days, as has last appearance was the 9th. Maybe give him a couple of innings on Wednesday as a tune up.
StephenT - Monday, April 16 2018 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#356317) #
I was remembering just yesterday that it was the Royals here in April 2001 when the first game was postponed from a SkyDome roof panel collision: http://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/skydome-roof-shreds-1.277009
Richard S.S. - Monday, April 16 2018 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#356318) #
The Jays could use Biagini on Wednesday or call someone up for game two tomorrow. The other option is to call up someone for Thursdayís Game, but by Friday they must find a Starter.
scottt - Monday, April 16 2018 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#356320) #
They can use 2 regulars tomorrow,  Biagini on Wednesday, then one of the regular would pitch on regular rest on Sunday and the other one gets more extra rest. 
Richard S.S. - Monday, April 16 2018 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#356322) #
I think itís more likely the Regular Starters pitch first. The Jays would need to find someone to pitch on Saturday, but that should be easy.
92-93 - Monday, April 16 2018 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#356323) #
Biagini gets a start tomorrow. This way he can make 2 starts in Buffalo afterwards and return to the Jays 16 days later for the double-header in Cleveland.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#356325) #
I had forgotten about the rule allowing teams to carry a 26th man for doubleheaders.  It's definitely a logical time for your 6th starter to come up. 
bpoz - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#356326) #
Thanks MG. We will see who comes up. Biagini and Borucki are already on the 40 man. There are some good AA SPs but they are not on the 40 man roster.

Of course an extra arm for the pen is also a 26th man possibility.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#356327) #
The announcement has been made- Biagini gets the start in Game 2 (as 92-93 said). 
uglyone - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#356328) #
yeah if we're going to keep biagini in AAA as a 6th starter we better use him to start at every opportunity.
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#356329) #
Agree. I still thought that Biagini was better off up here relieving. But this is exactly the situation where keeping him in AAA makes sense.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#356330) #
No change in lineup from what was planned yesterday:
Pearce 0, Hernandez 7, Smoak 3, Solarte 5, Martin 2, Pillar 8, Diaz 6, Grichuk 9, Travis 4.

Not playing the speed game...
dan gordon - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#356331) #
So, we'll see which of the 2 alternatives I mentioned upthread they go with. Skip Biagini's turn tomorrow, leaving him with no appearances for 12 days prior to the DH start, or give him a couple of innings in tomorrow's Bison's game to keep him sharp. He's still the scheduled starter tomorrow on the Bison's website.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#356332) #
Dan, Biagini is starting the 2nd game in Toronto today.   He can then go on more or less regular rotation in Buffalo for 2 starts and then be back to start one of the games in Cleveland on May 3.  It works out well.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#356333) #
...presuming the Buffalo plays again this season.  Today's game and tomorrow's doubleheader have both been cancelled by the Bisons due to weather conditions.  The Bisons are playing less than 1/2 of their scheduled games so far this season. 
bpoz - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#356334) #
I hope M Green is correct about Biagini pitching against KC and Cleveland. I prefer him to not pitch against the NYY until he has been in some ML games.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#356335) #
Double-headers have always been where the Manager really makes his money. Thatís no different for John Gibbons today as neither Starter should be expected to go more than 5.0 IP. First Relievers to go in each game should expect to pitch two innings. If neccesary, the second one should as well.
hypobole - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#356336) #
Not sure why neither starter should be expected to go more than 5 innings vs a team that's scoring all of 3 runs per game.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#356337) #
Duh, expecting more from the fifth and sixth Starters is poor planning. Be prepared for less and things will function better. If they give more, smile, and make adjustments. Extra innings are always an issue, but really bad news today.
bpoz - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#356338) #
I expect us to win the series against KC. A sweep would be frosting on the icing.
ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#356339) #
I expect us to win the series against KC. A sweep would be frosting on the icing.

I expect us to play the games. Chickens are best counted once hatched.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#356340) #
I expect us to play the games

Maybe...
ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#356342) #
Maybe...

True that. There are no sure things anymore. Not since the Cubs won the WS in 2016 and some people thought it might actually be a good thing.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#356343) #
I said 5.0 IP per Start today didnít I? The reason isnít effectiveness of the Starters, itís pitch count. Fifth Starters give up runs and donít pitch deep into games, usually because of pitch counts, especially within innings.
dan gordon - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#356344) #
Thanks for the clarification, Mike. Was thinking Biagini would pitch Saturday, but this makes more sense - he doesn't have to sit around so long.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#356345) #
I like our team, barry.
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#356346) #
Ok, 5-3 lead.

Now don't give the two big lefty Royal bats anything to hit..
hypobole - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#356347) #
Nice of the Royals' pitchers to remove that monkey off Grichuk's back.
scottt - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#356348) #
Finally, Grichuk comes alive.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#356349) #
Take your time coming back, Kendrys.
hypobole - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#356350) #
Kendrys should stay on the DL until he 110% healthy.
bpoz - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#356351) #
If Gibby is comfortable with the lead, he may consider pitching Mayza.
GabrielSyme - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#356352) #
We've got Tepera, Barnes, Clippard, Mayza and Osuna available for game 2. Loup and Oh both threw fewer than 20 pitches, so they should be available for tomorrow.
bpoz - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#356353) #
The pen should be ok. Mayza needs some work. He has not done anything for Toronto or Buffalo. Not his fault of course.
scottt - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#356354) #
Loup faced 5 hitters and Axford 6.

It makes more sense to use Mayza when the starter is right handed.
It's not really a team that makes you worry about match up.
They got Duda for cheap because there is no market for 1B/DH type.
Moustakas came back because nobody think he's going to age well.
And of course, they have a lot of money tied to Alex Gordon who has been terrible, even when healthy.

The record is now 10-5.
bpoz - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#356355) #
Thanks scottt. I hope Mayza can be helpful. We need the pitching to get through this short stretch. Buffalo pitching is probably very rusty.
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#356356) #
Mayza may be in this game sooner, rather than later..
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#356357) #
Justin Smoak is really pressing. Mid-twenties pitch count, bases loaded on a walk, double, strikeout and a walk; followed by ball in the dirt. How can anyone not take the next pitch?
StephenT - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#356359) #
fyi: Shulman's doing the play-by-play on the radio right now (5th inning).  (Wagner was doing the 3rd and 4th.  I missed before that.)
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#356360) #
That was an excellent job by Biagini, got his 5.0 IP in and kept the bleeding to a minimum. This game is now on the Offense. To not be up to beating this Team is ridiculous, they played game one too.
bpoz - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#356361) #
Yes. We need offense.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#356362) #
Tepera's tendency to give up the long ball makes him a risky high leverage reliever. Slider is too flat. I've always liked Biagini as a high leverage reliever (especially with the lead) because of his low home run total. He went most of '16 without giving up one as a reliever. The Jays should put him back there, IMO.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#356363) #
Biagini gave up just three homers in 69 innings pitched in '16. There's no question the Jays are better with him pitching the 8th inning. I hope by August/September (at least) he's back down there.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#356364) #
If they go very long into extra innings, a Starter will have to be used. So either score in the ninth or give it up in before it goes too long.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#356366) #
I'd still rather have Goins than Ngoepe as the 25th player on the roster. It appears either the Jays or Goins (or both) believed it was time to move on. I don't think it was best for either side.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#356368) #
Finally gibby pinch hits grandy for hernandez and not pearce. Good. Pearce is not a platoon hitter. He shouldn't be treated like one.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#356369) #
Serious question: Is Steve Pearce the Jays MVP so far this season?
uglyone - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#356371) #
Man is it nice to have corner OF that can field.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#356372) #
Oh good, Grichuk's up.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#356373) #
The Maileman Delivers1
bpoz - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#356374) #
We won!!! So a good game.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#356375) #
Maile is really putting his stamp on this ballclub.
cybercavalier - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#356376) #
is it about time to send Ngoepe to Buffalo?

Instead of recalling Espinosa, how Leblebijian?
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#356377) #
Another off-season move (or lack thereof) paying off early.

Maile's highest OPS in the minors was in 2012 at .753 (95 games) in high A ball.

Martin is pretty much guaranteed a D.L. stint at some point, so it's comforting to see Maile not being a black hole. We'll be seeing Danny Jansen before long, I'm sure.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#356378) #
This Jays team is fun to watch. I thought the rotation would be good but the offense has surprised me so far, especially with Donaldson out.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#356379) #
Morales coming back will be a buzzkill. Pearce getting more playing time, especially at DH, is going to help this team, and Teoscar is likely a better player than Kendrys now as well. It will be interesting to see how they end up juggling the roster when Morales and Donaldson get back. Surely they will have to demote Hernandez again, as him and Mayza are the ones with options (and they won't get rid of Gift until Tulo gets back, if/when that happens).
rpriske - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#356380) #
"Serious question: Is Steve Pearce the Jays MVP so far this season?"

Serious answer: No. Yangervis Solarte is.
GabrielSyme - Tuesday, April 17 2018 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#356381) #
Ngoepe looks utterly useless, now close to a 60% strikeout rate. Pitchers throw him strikes and he can't hit them. Espinosa is an option who at least should provide professional at-bats; Gurriel is another option.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 12:23 AM EDT (#356382) #
Gift is one of the worst hitters I have seen, without hyperbole. Swing is awful, pitch recognition is awful, minor league track record is awful, etc. Iím sure heís a nice guy and all, but heís not a big leaguer, even as an injury fill in. I canít imagine a scenario where Espinosa would be worse.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 02:49 AM EDT (#356383) #
The Jays win a game they tried very hard to lose. Winning both ends of a double-header is hard to do. So it depends on who doing the job Wednesday. Gift Ngoepe defends his position very well. Alternatives are much less talented. He hasnít cost the Jays a game yet. To get an offensive upgrade, Iím not willing to accept substandard defense. Until the Jays make their decision stop complaining, the altenative might be worse.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 05:22 AM EDT (#356384) #
Does good fielding trump poor hitting ? All I know is that I'm glad the Jays have Solarte and Diaz, and not running out Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney at short and third.
scottt - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 07:02 AM EDT (#356385) #
Gift is the guy on the bench that gets used the least. He's not the replacement for Goins, Diaz is.
Last year, in that role we had Chris Coghlan.

It's best not to worry about him too much when the team is 11-5.

grjas - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 08:03 AM EDT (#356386) #
I thought the rotation would be good but the offense has surprised me so far, especially with Donaldson out.

Bodes well for next year as well, especially if Guerrero is ready which looks likely.
85bluejay - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 08:30 AM EDT (#356387) #
If Luke Maile can become a productive hitter & given his defensive acumen & years of control, that's a big win for the FO - not only allowing the jays to give Martin adequate rest but if Martin hits the DL, it wouldn't hurt that much - also it makes the transition away from Martin easier and gives the jays the option of maybe moving one of their catching prospects for help in other areas.
bpoz - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#356388) #
Hopefully with Martin, Maile, Jansen and McGuire the catching is taken care of for the next few years.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#356390) #
yeah the huge advantage of having gift instead of goins is that gibby doesn't feel the need to play him.

and with the way diaz is playing on both sides of the ball, i'm not so sure that gift isn't the guy they send down next, with solarte getting the rare SS appearances that gift is getting (remember - gift has been getting 2B appearances).
uglyone - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#356391) #
yeah just doublechecking....Ngoepe has 3 starts at 2B and 2 starts at SS.

and iirc one of those starts at SS was in the opening series when gibby was just getting everyone into the lineup (i.e. not out of a need for rest), and when Diaz was coming off a poor spring and didn't look like a go-to starting option.

So gift has 2 starts at SS and Solarte has 1.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#356392) #
Some thoughts after a very satisfying doubleheader:

1.   Gibbons has managed very well since Morales went on the DL, mixing and matching pretty much to perfection.  He's used the DH slot to give players rest, and found a very nice balance between giving young and sometimes struggling young players a chance and giving veterans sufficient work.  Pearce DHing in the first game and playing first base in the second (he's a perfectly competent first baseman) would be a nice example of the use of the DH slot.  Letting Maile hit late in the game while pinch-hitting Granderson for Hernandez against Herrera would be an example of the balance. 
2.   Diaz looked fluid in the field for the first time (to my eyes) yesterday.   He's not Ozzie Smith or Cal Ripken or Troy Tulowitzki out there, but quite a bit better than I feared.
3.   Luke Maile's z-contact (contact rate on pitches in the zone) so far this season is 100%.  His at-bat early against a very tough Danny Duffy where he walked after 10 pitches turned out to be very important.  Duffy was gone after 6 innings and 100 pitches, and the Royals couldn't bridge to Herrera.  Maile has had several of these at-bats already this year. 
4.   John Axford looked much, much better than previously.  Walker and Gibbons wisely stretched him out to 2 innings, and I think that might end up as his role- medium to high leverage 6th and 7th inning work. 
5.   Moose are able to run at top speeds of 35 mph.  Moustakas can definitely hit, but on the bases and the field, he's a lot more like a turtle than a moose.  The Jays took advantage a couple of times.
6.   As a cautionary note,  much of the club's success so far this season is built on completely different offensive performance with runners on (.314/.398/.543) than with nobody on (.185/.262/.334).  The pitching record is the opposite, if not quite as extreme (.262/..344/.490 with nobody on and ..245/.316/.357 with runners on). That kind of team clutchiness is not sustainable.  Their BaseRuns record is 8-8, perhaps nudging towards 9-7.  Still, if they play .530 ball the rest of the season, they end up with 88 wins. 

hypobole - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#356394) #
Ranking teams by fWAR

Team, W-L, (B+P WAR)/GP

Boston, 14-2, .469
New York, 8-8, .375
Los Angeles, 13-4, .347
Oakland, 8-10, .278
Minnesota, 7-5, .275
Houston, 11-7, .261
Cleveland, 9-6, .247
Chicago, 4-10, .171
Toronto 11-5, .156
Seattle, 9-6, .133
Detroit, 5-9, .114
Texas, 7-12, .074
Tampa Bay, 4-13, .071
Baltimore, 5-12, .065
Kansas City, 3-12, .047

Relative to record, WAR loves the A's, Yankees and White Sox, hates the Jays and Mariners.

uglyone - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#356395) #
Agreed on the clutchiness, Mike.

I'd add though that the 4.7 baseruns per game for the offense is imo sustainable (though the current actual 5.5 runs per game isn't) - i.e. a solidly above average offense.

While I think (hope?) that the 4.66 baseruns against per game for the pitching is an underachivement, and that they can improve on that significantly.

So far our starting pitching has actually been low-key awful, with Stroman the only one with a fip under 4.5. (And iirc fip is pretty much the same inputs they use for baseruns.)
cybercavalier - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#356396) #
GabrielSyme, SK in NJ,

On the OPS so far into this season, Espinosa is not hitting well either but coaching can look at him differently and bring him up.

Regarding Morales,
Could we trade him to the Rays for IF/OF Brad Miller. Both players are on the DL but once they come off the DL. Morales gives the Rays a slugger with C.J. Cron and the Jays an IF/OF until Tulo is back. By then Ngoepe can just simply go to Dunedin at which level he hit .800 OPS in the past.
Chuck - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#356397) #
Could we trade him to the Rays

TB is all about cutting salary, not adding to it. They could just as easily sign and pay Adam Lind $500K rather than pay Morales $11M.

92-93 - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#356398) #
Some great points there Mike. It was great to be at the Dome for a double-header, who knows if that will ever happen again. A few responses:

1. The 2nd game did not start well with Pearce fumbling a chopper, but Biagini did great to limit the bases loaded and no outs damage to one run after plunking the #4 hitter to bring in a run. I didn't notice till just now that they called that first play of the game a hit, and I have no idea how that's possible. It looked to me like the kind of play you could have given Pearce both a fielding and throwing error on had the runner advanced to 2nd.

2. The defense was pretty sharp in both games. There was a ball Pillar pulled up on that I thought he could've had and Biagini missed a chance to turn two to get himself out of that first inning jam, but otherwise everybody looked pretty solid out there. Granderson made a ranging catch down the left field line that I wonder if Pearce gets to. There was an inning late in the second game that the Royals defensive positioning may have taken away 3 hits on balls hit up the middle. Pillar in particular scorched one that a few years ago was an easy base hit, but Goinsy was standing right there and made a routine play. Travis made them pay for the shift later, though, doing his thing and poking a ball through the gaping hole on the right side.

3. Great to see Maile win the game for the team. There was no chance in a doubleheader that Gibby would PH for him in that spot, but later in the year if something similar comes up Martin might stay on the bench now where previously he may have been subbed in. It's incredible that Maile has already equaled last year's RBI total with 7.

4. Axford being able to absord two innings in a blowout using 25 pitches is a nice and necessary development.

Some additional thoughts:

5. I liked the first-to-third aggressiveness the team had in both games yesterday. Smoak got called out trying it, but up 5-3 with one out was the right time to go for it, and from my seats he looked safe. If the initial call on the field had been safe it would likely have stood. In the second game Travis' aggressiveness in the 9th almost won the Jays the game, but alas Granderson couldn't cash him in.

6. I wonder if Gibby's decision to PH for Teoscar in the 9th was more about getting Yost to burn Herrera than it was making the switch at the plate. Even had the Royals taken a lead they wouldn't have had their closer to secure the win.

7. It's pretty funny that Tim Mayza can't even get work in a double-header against a team with left-handed 3-4 hitters, one of them being a blowout. In both games the Royals had spots in their lineup where 3 of 4 hitters were lefties. Let's see what he can do today.
CeeBee - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#356399) #
Since today's game is on facebook only I won't be watching unless I can find some other way. Social media ain't my thang.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#356400) #
Concur on all counts, 92-93.  I don't think that Pearce would have got to the ball Granderson caught, or at best it would have been a 50-50 dive play. 

Devon Travis looked quite a bit better.  You know he's on the beam when he is driving the ball to both power alleys in addition to hitting it down the lines.  He hasn't quite got there yet.  I guess it's not surprising given his return from injury, and hopefully we'll see the return of that part of his game soon. 

bpoz - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#356401) #
When ever Mayza pitches, I will allow him the excuse of rust if he performs badly. And sending him to Buffalo would not get him any work. Due to weather.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#356402) #
I did find it amusing that Tabby kept going on and on about how being in the minors made this start TOUGHER for Biagini, not EASIER.
Chuck - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#356403) #
Devon Travis looked quite a bit better.

How much was he salivating when he saw the shift being used against him? Don't teams do scouting reports any more? Hell, with Travis you might want to swing the shortstop over to the right side as well.

This current Royals team just screams out crappiness from top to bottom. Honestly, what is there to be excited about if you're a Royals fan? Their continued insistence on a shift that wasn't working was just the cherry on top.

A comment on Biagini that perhaps has been made already, maybe even in spring training. His body shape seems very different. He seems to have worked hard to shed some lbs. Hopefully that helps with his endurance (though plenty a fatty has successfully logged many innings at the major league level). Biagini is an easy guy to root for. All the more given how hard he seems to be working.

Gerry - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#356404) #
Joey Bats has signed with Atlanta (Alex A) to be a third baseman. He is headed for extended spring training.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#356405) #
The Blue Jays are 5-2 in the ďApril weatherĒ which included a very cold Texas. The Jays are 6-3 at home so they are productive anywhere. This is a much better start than I expected for them. With 12 games left to play, a .500 record gives them 17 wins this month. With the way they are winning, it will be more, but can they win 20?

Jose Bautista sign a minor league deal with the Braves to play 3B. Good on A.A.

BlueMonday - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#356406) #
Tyler O'Niell from Maple Ridge BC called up by St. Louis.
John Northey - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#356407) #
After yesterdays double header win the Jays are 3 back of the Red Sox, 3 ahead of the Yankees and 1 ahead of Houston for the top Wild card slot.  Nice start vs last years disaster.  4-12 at this point last year, 7 1/2 out of first, 5 1/2 out of the wild card race.  So a net shift of 4 1/2 games towards first place, 8 1/2 in the wild card race (from 5 behind to 3 ahead).   Last year at this time the Jays were 2 games worse than any other AL team.  Ick.  The Jays were 72-74 after game 16.  If they do that again it'd be a disappointment but would put them at 83-79.  A 500 record here on out would finish at 84-78 and probably 6 games out of the playoffs so they do need to be good still.  To get to 90 wins on the season (normally enough to make the playoffs) they need to go 79-67 or an 88 win pace which doesn't seem unreasonable but is still pretty strong. 
Chuck - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#356408) #
Joey Bats has signed with Atlanta (Alex A) to be a third baseman.

Good for him. I wasn't sure if his pride would preclude him taking such an offer. Per his 2016 preseason position, he was slated to now be in year 2 of a 5/150 contract. This is a whole lot of humble pie to eat (which doesn't make him worthy of scorn or mockery).

bpoz - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#356409) #
T O'Niell was traded from Seattle to St Louis for Marco Gonzales in July 2017. Gonzales was a 1st round draft pick #19 overall in 2013. St Louis has a FO that has been there for a while, so I guess they not afraid to swap their surplus for something.

A Diaz, R Grichuk and S Piscotty are examples of their ML surplus that they swapped. I would like us to do something like that. I am sure I would complain, since I over value our prospects.


PeterG - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#356411) #
Gibbons says that Morales will be activated on Friday. Donaldson will require more time and will have at least one more DL stint.

Magpie - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#356412) #
Joey Bats has signed with Atlanta (Alex A) to be a third baseman.

The Braves come to Toronto June 19-20. Atlanta's been playing Ryan Flaherty at third base. He's hitting .354 but that's entirely because of a .447 mark on his balls in play. He's a career .220 hitter with below average power power. So you could say there's an opportunity there.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#356413) #
Ngoepe gets another start at second base today.  I hope Travis' hand is OK after the HBP yesterday.
Chuck - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#356414) #
Atlanta's been playing Ryan Flaherty at third base

Ryan Flaherty must ooze character from every pore since there is no other explanation for the length of his career. Seriously, he must be a clubhouse favourite.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#356415) #
Devon will pinch hit if necessary should he be okay-ish. If not, I might be concerned but not too much. Is Ian Kennedy a 5th Starter on the Jays or is he better? I like the Jays chances to win this game.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#356416) #
Devon Travis went 3-5 (1-3 with run; 2-2 with RBI) yesterday scoring and driving in a run. Has his timing arrived? Only the opponents should worry.

Randal Grichuk had a great game one (2-4, 2B, HR, 2 runs, 3 RBI), but was 0-3 with a walk and a run scored in game two. Has his timing arrived? That is the biggest concern.
hypobole - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#356417) #
Want to watch today's game on Sportsnet? Too bad. It was sold to facebook.
hypobole - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#356418) #
Just noticed CeeBee mentioned this a number of posts back. And I'm with him - don't have facebook, will never have facebook.
Cracka - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#356419) #
For those without Facebook, you've missed broadcaster Cliff Floyd introduce the defensive alignment and lineups (separately) while purposely avoiding all the hard names: "Teoscar", "Yangervis", "Aledmys", and "Ngoepe". He actually skipped introducing Gift Ngoepe altogether...
uglyone - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#356420) #
I wonder how many people circa ~1900 said they'd "never had a phone, would never have a phone"?
CeeBee - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#356421) #
Guess you'll need to run a poll.
mathesond - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#356422) #
Well, 'Get a horse!' was a popular refrain, heard often by those who were foolish enough to drive automobiles.
hypobole - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#356423) #
Cars and phones are very useful to pretty well everyone. Facebook is useful for certain types of people, albeit, the most common types.
mathesond - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#356424) #
Hmm. I have a Facebook acoount, but neither a car nor smartphone. Trying to figure out if that makes me a common type of person.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#356425) #
I don't know why Blue Jay pitchers have been nibbling with Merrifield.  Go after him.  Moustakas is more dangerous, by far against RHP and noticeably against LHP.
jester00 - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#356426) #
We should send this Hernandez guy back down. He's awful
uglyone - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#356427) #
No commercial breaks on facebook.

Sharp graphics.

This is great.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#356428) #
We should send this Hernandez guy back down. He's awful

Are we really sure that Morales doesn't need a rehab assignment to get back in the groove?
jester00 - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#356429) #
I believe that would be in his best interest.
King Ryan - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#356430) #
It would be pretty easy to set up a blank Facebook account that does nothing but allows you to watch the game, but I guess making some sort of obscure sanctimonious point is more important.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#356431) #
"Get a horse!"

Still giggling.
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#356432) #
Yeah, Facebook isn't as bad as I feared. Maybe that's because I usually watch Pat & Buck.. It's usually when I'm doing something else (working, exercising, etc), so I don't have to listen to every word. Plus, already knowing 83.9% of what they're going to say helps with my slightly-aging ears :-) Commentators aren't the best, but are ok. Overall, video stream is ok. Quiet mode + fullscreen turns off most of the annoying stuff. Wish I could turn off the occasional pop-in viewer comment, though. Having the commentators actually respond to (filtered) fan input isn't all bad. And I agree - getting to watch the field or similar during most of the intermission is pretty good compared to regular mlb.tv. And yeah, I noticed that Cliff Floyd totally skipped Ngoepe :-)

While I don't like FB (especially being a computer guy and hating their privacy, etc), overall, it's a "meh" for me. I'm sure mlb.tv tries to track me just as much, and I installed the "facebook container" add-on for firefox.  I saw the Jays have ANOTHER FB game later against LAA.

Great games by the Jays yesterday. Hopefully Grichuk gets going. Otherwise, I wouldn't be opposed to an outfield of Hernandez, Pillar, Granderson playing the majority of the games.

I agree, not seeing Goins/Barney out there most days is good. But seeing Ngoepe's futility at the plate.. (OPS .180, OPS+ -48) makes me wonder if we're giving back half of that. I mean, if we could put Barney out there instead, it WOULD be an improvement.

As for moving on from Goins - I think it was the fact that we would have had to offer him arbitration, AFAIK, and he would have gotten a raise to the ~$1.5M range.

Jose Bautista - I wish him well, and a great year when not playing the Jays. I think there are quite a few aging stars who need to move elsewhere in order to have a chance at a part-time end to their career. I can't imagine the year with Bautista playing a pinch-hitter/back-up 3B role here (even, say, next year if JD moves on) - too many fans would be calling for him to be a full-time player, etc.. Hard to age gracefully in sports.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#356433) #
Good answer, Mr. Merrifield.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#356434) #
So, maybe no more commentary on the Royals hittersí relative merits for the time being.
92-93 - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#356435) #
Excellent managing there getting Ngoepe out of the game with two men on in the 5th. Martin to 2B?
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#356436) #
I think itís safe to say that ďNow pinch-hitting for Gift Ngoepe...Luke MaileĒ is not something any of us anticipated hearing this season.
Magpie - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#356437) #
I've got this graphic box on my screen that tells me I'm watching a live video. Which I knew. There's an X in the upper right corner of the box. Which I figure you should be able to click on to make the box go away. And yet it lingers.

Otherwise, it's working pretty good.
Magpie - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#356438) #
I think itís safe to say that ďNow pinch-hitting for Gift Ngoepe...Luke MaileĒ is not something any of us anticipated hearing this season.

Not in the American League, anyway.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#356439) #
Its pretty clear that Teoscar is a better fit on this roster than Morales, and we shouldn't have a true designated hitter clogging up the roster anymore.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#356440) #
Not sure how it looks on a pc but the mobile experience for this broadcast is topnotch.
scottt - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#356441) #
Early adopters of phone and cars needed deep pockets.
A user of Facebook just need to be comfortable with sharing private and personal information with the whole world.

So, no, I don't get to see the games that are offered by Cambridge Analytica.
scottt - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#356442) #
Ranking teams by fWAR

FIP is highly  questionable as a measure of past pitching performance.
It's even more true if you're looking at the data for entire teams.

FIP will tell you that he Yankees who have allowed 87 runs in 16 games have amazing pitching.
FIP will tell you that the Blue Jays who have allowed 60 runs in 16 games have average pitching.

With regards to position player WAR, the Jays have done really well.
The pitching has been decent too, overall.

Magpie - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#356443) #
How hot is Luke Maile? Geez, this is a guy who's never been hot.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#356444) #
Luke Maille, was one of the worst players in the majors last season, this is a crazy town start for him.
scottt - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#356445) #
It should be safe to say that I love Royal relief pitching.

The competition for top draft pick is ridiculous this year.
Goins must feel right at home on a  2-12 team in April.

raptorsaddict - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#356446) #
Before today's game, BBRef had Maile at 0.5 WAR over 319 career plate appearances.

0.4 of that total has come in this year's 22 trips to the plate.
scottt - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#356447) #
Surprised that Loup got pulled after 11 pitches. Maybe Gibby does not want to warm up Osuna .

 Still no Mayza. That's kinda of amazing.
Chuck - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#356448) #
Still no Mayza. That's kinda of amazing.

This is Gibbons' way of telling the bosses that when Morales comes back, Mayza can be sent down, not Hernandez.

Magpie - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#356449) #
OK, now people are pitching around Maile?
hypobole - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#356450) #
I would guess Gibbons would just tell the bosses verbally. I would also guess Gibbons was the one who requested Mayza in the first place.
Chuck - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#356451) #
Grimm is an appropriate name for a Kansas City Royal. I wonder if he has a brother?
scottt - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#356452) #
They're sorta pitching around everybody except Grichuk.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#356453) #
I like our team, barry.
scottt - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#356454) #
They Blue Jays as a team probably pick up at least 1 WAR today.
hypobole - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#356455) #
7 Jays are now slugging over.500. None of Donaldson, Smoak or Martin are among those 7.
bpoz - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#356456) #
Happy to see Mayza get into a game.

Looks like we have a few pieces for rebuild part 1. Part 2 will be the addition of Vlad and Bo.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#356457) #
Iím really curious what they do when Morales gets back. Hernandez is making hard contact and his pitch recognition (SSS) looks a lot better than it did last September. Canít imagine Gibby wanting to bench him or send him down. Maybe Morales will play over Grichuk (with Teoscar in RF). Iím sure there is a way to get everybody ABís, but wow does Morales look horrible now. The team as is looks better, more athletic, and more flexible without a strict DH. Kendrys will destroy that.

Iím not expecting the FO to cut bait on him in April but it would be beneficial if they did.

Also, I think Martin at third with Maile behind the dish should be used when Travis has to sit. Not to sound like a broken record, but Gift is not a big leaguer in any way.
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#356459) #
Gift is not a big leaguer in any way.

You have to think that with Gibbons pinch-hitting Maile for Ngoepe and moving Martin to 3B today, that he's come to this conclusion as well. I expect Espinosa will be called up soon, possibly Gurriel.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#356460) #
Not sure they need to call up any infielders.
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#356461) #
As long as Travis and Donaldson are out, and Travis needs days off, I think we need another infielder. Martin is fine as an emergency backup, but (a) he needs days off as well; (b) I don't expect he'll be more than adequate defensively; and (c) he's more valuable as a catcher.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#356462) #
If the front office insists on keeping Morales, he ought to be a pinch-hitter/occasional DH.  You could do that with a 7 man pen until Donaldson comes back. 
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#356463) #
Todayís game actually had better atenndance today (28,803), enough to make a difference in fans attending (247,410) and fans not attending (233,740). All those would-be fans are missing a lot of interesting and exciting games.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#356464) #
Fifteen runs scored on fifteen hits, nine walks and a hit batter for the Jaysí first of many sweeps this Season. They have scored 38 more runs than they have given up, yet have hit only 25 HRs. This is encouraging heading into New York tomorrow.
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#356465) #
Hernandez is here to stay. It was clear to me after watching Grichuk for the first few games that this would happen sooner rather than later, and I'm glad it didn't take long.

Yes, Teoscar has had a tendency to chase pitches in the past, but he has a almost Bautista/Encarnacion level of hitting mistakes from the pitcher. As long as he continues to not miss the balls that should be smoked, we'll be talking about him on here for a long time.

I will repeat my prediction that by June, the outfield is Hernandez, Pillar, and Alford.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#356466) #
Morales as a pinch hitter and platoon DH (only facing LHP) would limit his playing time and put him in the best position to be productive in the time he does play, so that might be the way to go. I don't expect them to do that right away, though. Eventually something will have to give because right now it's Hernandez's playing time that might be compromised, but when Donaldson gets back, it will be Solarte's as well, so Morales is going to cause issues either way.
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#356467) #
According to statcast, Grichuk has a xwoba of .352 and is 15th in the majors in average exit velocity. He has been very unlucky on balls in play.

I'm not saying he's been great, or will be great, but there hasn't been nearly enough for me to take Grichuk out. Hernandez deserves to stay up, but I'd rather give Grichuk more time to let the results come, and give Hernandez occasional starts at all three outfield positions.
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#356469) #

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#356470) #
I agree, SK.  It's a shame because the current roles work so well.  Solarte at 3B/2B and DH, Pearce at DH and first base, Granderson at DH and in left, Smoak getting occasional DH time.  They're all better hitters than Morales, and Granderson, Solarte and even Pearce are quite a bit better on the basepaths. 
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#356471) #
The Jays will make a decision when a Middle Infielder merits being called up. At that time a decision will be finalized on Gift Ngoepe. Any options the Jays have in AAA arenít being considered until they have enough ABs to matter - try late April. Bringing someone up from AA might start there clock too soon. Ignoring defense to acquire offense will be a mistake.
christaylor - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#356472) #
Facebook did a decent job, I think. Played nice with my Chromecast as well as mlb.tv and between inning entertainment was better than the blank spaces in the mlb.tv feed.
Chuck - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#356473) #
so Morales is going to cause issues either way

I'm definitely in agreement that Morales poses a problem on the current roster (just what do you tell Hernandez when you send him down?), let alone the roster that will eventually include Donaldson. I think they'll fart around and squeeze Morales onto the roster somehow for now (maybe sending Ngoepe down, making Martin a part-time 3B), but something will just have to give once Donaldson is back.

scottt - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#356474) #
You can't pinch hit for Ngoepe if he's not in the lineup.
Martin isn't hitting much and needs his rest when the games aren't rained out.

It's all about pitching anyway. :)

Mike Green - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#356475) #
just what do you tell Hernandez when you send him down?

75-100 years ago, the Manager would say that he was no good "in the clinches". Now, we have data and the Manager would look ridiculous.  Hernandez has even looked pretty good in the field. 

Maybe, just maybe, the FO might not be so defensive about the Morales acquisition in light of what appears to have been a very successful trade deadline and offseason in 2017-18.  Hernandez is their guy too, as are Solarte and Granderson.  Ever the optimist, I am hoping. 
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#356476) #
Teoscar Hernandez has two options left, Randal Grichuk has none or the cost would have been higher. Grichuk will be given every chance and more to turn his Season around. He still does enough to keep him in the game.

Kendrys Morales will return sooner than Josh Donaldson, but probably not before the next Homestand. Going to a 7-Man Bullpen will occur before any other move is made and it might not be Tim Mayza leaving.
scottt - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#356477) #
Morales can be activated Friday. Sabathia, whom Morales hits well against, is scheduled to pitch tomorrow.

It's going to be an interesting series.

Cracka - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#356478) #
You have to think that with Gibbons pinch-hitting Maile for Ngoepe and moving Martin to 3B today, that he's come to this conclusion as well.

That was my immediate reaction as well -- I can never, ever recall someone striking out five times in a row on called strikes, as Gift just did during the KC series. That's embarrassing... completely lack of pitch recognition and 2-strike approach. I think Martin is our backup IF and may see more time in the field with Maile swinging a hot bat. Either Ngoepe or Mayza goes down Friday for Morales; the other for Donaldson when he returns. Diaz is the everyday SS and as long as it stays that way, and we don't need a true SS backup on the team (Solarte is fine for an occasional start)
scottt - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#356479) #
The Yankees have resigned Lind on a minor leagues deal after figuring out that Neal Walker at first base was a dumb idea. Thankfully, he's going to extended spring training first. I always liked LInd, just never figured out why they couldn't just platooned him.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#356480) #
"FIP is highly questionable as a measure of past pitching performance.
It's even more true if you're looking at the data for entire teams."

Do we really have to have this argument every single time somebody uses a very useful, legitimate, and widespread stat like fip?
uglyone - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#356482) #
Optimal healthy roster imo

LF Granderson
3B Donaldson
1B Smoak
DH Pearce
RF Hernandez
2B Travis
SS Tulowitzki
C Martin
CF Pillar

UT Solarte
OF Grichuk
IF Diaz
C Maile

If we really need to keep morales on the roster for some reason, then the only thing that makes sense to me is to take advantage of solarte's versatility (and Diaz' great play) and NOT carry a defensive IF like ngoepe or espinosa.

Hilariously, the need to keep Morales may be the reason we stop with the 8 man bullpen.
John Northey - Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#356484) #
I'd love to see the Jays admit their mistake and just eat Morales' contract at this point.  I felt that way all winter too, but could see why they'd bring him to spring and see if he could recover and get going but at this point he has to be viewed as a write off.  Granderson, Pearce & Hernandez both are outhitting anything we'd reasonably expect from Morales at this point and Grichuk is going to be given more time to get going in RF.  With the roster crunch I see more value in Gift and an 8th reliever than I see in Morales who can only DH or play 1B and cannot run.  Yeah, it will hurt the Jays to suck it back on $23 million and maybe they can find a taker who has a bad contract (a pitcher ideally) to get rid of who needs someone at 1B though I have no idea who that might be.  KC sucks at DH but their only really bad contract is Alex Gordon and that is not a fit and he makes double what Morales makes. 
pubster - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 12:19 AM EDT (#356488) #
FIP only takes into account Walks, Strikeouts, Home Runs, and HBP.

It doesn't take into account how hard balls are hit.

And it definitely doesn't take into account how clutch a pitcher is ;)
dalimon5 - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 12:39 AM EDT (#356490) #
Morales can be your elite lefty masher off the bench. Can't get rid of the guy when he's posting elite numbers vs LHP the past 2 years. Keep him as an all star pinch hitter. Better than getting nothing for him. As a starter for big money he's terrible. Viewed as depth he's tolerable and even good. Just because you paid more than market value for something doesn't mean it has no value. Teoscar, Solarte, Smoak etc can all face injuries and slumps. Good to have some more depth.
Petey Baseball - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 01:17 AM EDT (#356491) #
It's interesting that perhaps the two most scrutinized/criticized (for good reason, especially the Morales) transactions of the Shapkins regime so far were moves that were perhaps forced (or partially forced) by external pressure. There was speculation that the Morales signing was part of the Guerriel deal, and the Bautista signing (as some have speculated) was forced or at least influenced by ownership.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 02:38 AM EDT (#356493) #
Try to explain to Rogers how you are paying Kendrys Morales $21.0 Million to play for someone else. First the Budget goes down significantly (possibly by that much) and does not go back up until years later. Next Shapiro and possibly Atkins are gone including possibly others. Enjoy Kendrys Morales the next six months and all of next year, heís going nowhere.
85bluejay - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 06:16 AM EDT (#356494) #
The Red Sox are crushing everybody - the next 7 games will be a good test for the jays especially with Donaldson perhaps missing all those games - the expected strength of this team, the starting rotation has been disappointing in the early going.
uglyone - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 08:13 AM EDT (#356495) #
"Try to explain to Rogers how you are paying Kendrys Morales $21.0 Million to play for someone else. "


Hey Rogers - you see this team i built you that's winning all these games right now? Let's make sure we don't make them worse. P.s. you'll be paying the same amount either way.
scottt - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#356496) #
It's not really an argument. I'm just putting the asterix where it's needed.
xFIP exists because the home runs component has such a huge impact  on FIP that even an entire year is a small sample. So, FIP over 3 starts...

There's a genuine question about the Jays pitching regarding the sustainability of getting out of jams.
The Jays have 3 ground ball pitchers and an extreme pop up pitcher. So, maybe, but FIP will never like it.
uglyone - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#356497) #
There is just as much of an asterisk needed when using ERA, in many cases more needed.

You really don't need to keep pointing out that a very useful and prevalent stat isn't perfect.
scottt - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 08:28 AM EDT (#356498) #
I wouldn't use "crushing everybody" to describe the Red Sox. They scored 5 runs more than the Jays.
It's the pitching that's been good. Only 48 runs allowed. April numbers for sure.
scottt - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#356499) #
I'm not saying it's not perfect. I'm saying it's not describing results. It's describing something that only fairly correlates to result. It's like this cancer drug that is prevalent but only works 60% of the time. You have to recognize when it doesn't work and move on.
Mike Green - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#356500) #
For his major league career (227 PAs), Teoscar Hernandez is batting .261/.317/.536 for a wRC+ of 124.  Half of that was achieved in 2016 when he pretty clearly did not have the power that he does today.  From 2014-18, Morales has hit .259/.322/.442.  He turns 35 in June.  There is no reason to believe that Morales will be as good a hitter as Hernandez over the remainder of the season, and there is every reason to believe that Hernandez will be much, much more valuable than Morales. 

This business of a "roster crunch" upon Morales' return leading to Hernandez being sent back to the minors is tiresome.  The "roster crunch" description (without statement of the basic facts) appears in not only the Sportsnet pages on the internet, but also in the Globe and Mail. 

PeterG - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#356502) #
The Morales outcome will in no way affect the employment of anyone in the FO. That suggestion is simply ridiculous. I have finally come round to believing that waiving him is the best decision. I was ok with him last season as there were limited alternatives but now there seem to be many and it appears as if he is simply in the way. Mayza will likely go down tomorrow but there will be a time, perhaps soon, when an 8th reliever will be needed. At times, when there will be a 3 man bench, more versatily is required.
uglyone - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#356503) #
I guess we do have to have this argument every time.

1.ERA also doesn't describe "results" in the way you mean. It describes only earned runs. Not runs. It admits it isn't describing real actual results right in its name.
2.Both stats describe results - one describes the amount of runs scored, the other describes the amount of walks strikeouts hits and homeruns accumulated. The argument is only about which "result" more accurately describes the performance of the pitcher alone, both in what he did and what he can be expected to do.
3.describing fip as "60% accurate" doesn't even make sense, and reveals a misunderstanding of what the stat is.
4.to cop a phrase, it is "settled science" that fip does a better job describing the pitcher's actual performance than a stat like era in many, though not all, contexts.
5.looking at fip instead of era this early in the year is the smart thing to do.
hypobole - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#356505) #
"Well, 'Get a horse!' was a popular refrain,"

One last comment on yesterday's broadcast.

If you can lead a horse to water, can you lead a horseless carriage to an illegal stream?
pubster - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#356506) #
FIP and ERA are both imperfect stats.

Cool article: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/players-view-the-best-stat-to-evaluate-pitchers/
pubster - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#356507) #
If Joe Biagini was to be the 5th starter for the Jays this season, what stat would you want him achieving?

3.50 era? 3.50 fip? 230 innings pitched?

I think I'd take the innings pitched.
hypobole - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#356508) #
To phrase your scenario differently.

Would you want 5th starter Biagini to do what 54 starting pitchers managed to accomplish last year, or what 36 starting pitchers managed to accomplish last year, or what 0 starting pitchers managed to accomplish last year.

Really tough choice, but I'll have to agree with you on the IP.
uglyone - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#356509) #
For me, IP/gs is a crucial stat that everybody hugely underrates (both in its own value and how it impacts the pitcher's other stats), and it's ignored by both old skool and new skool types.
vw_fan17 - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#356511) #
uglyone - but isn't IP/gs HUGELY dependent on, say, ERA or FIP (actual performance)? I.e. if the pitcher's ERA and FIP are both north of 6, he's not going to be left in to pitch any complete games. Or even 7 innings. Someone like Dickey, for example, could probably get 7-8 IP/gs over a season. Doesn't mean he would be effective in all those innings.



uglyone - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#356512) #
sure, but I think that's the point - the pitcher isn't going to stay in if he's stinking it up all the time.

for me, the more interesting question is how much impact the extra 1,2,3,5,6, outs the top pitchers can get per game effects the rest of their numbers. Those last few outs, when the pitchers are at their tiredest, the hitters have all seen them 3-4 times already, and the leverage is likely the highest, I would guess would have an outsized impact on the rest of that pitcher's stats - and that a pitcher who throws 7ip per game could/would have MUCH sexier era/fip/whatever if the manager pulled him after 6ip every game.
uglyone - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#356513) #
Time to poke the bear....


Last Calendar year, Jays Hitters vs Red Sox Hitters

LF Grandy: 527pa, 14.0b%/23.1k%, .244bip/.226avg, .255iso, 118wrc+, 3.3war650
2B Nunez: 500pa, 4.0b%/11.6k%, .327bip/.307avg, .164iso, 115wrc+, 3.0war650

3B Josh: 515pa, 15.1b%/21.9k%, .279bip/.264avg, .282iso, 145wrc+, 6.3war650
DH Martinez: 559pa, 10.2b%/26.7k%, .336bip/.304avg, .371iso, 164wrc+, 4.9war650

1B Smoak: 683pa, 12.3b%/20.5k%, .290bip/.270avg, .253iso, 137wrc+, 3.6war650
RF Betts: 739pa, 11.1b%/11.5k%, .273bip/.272avg, .218iso, 119wrc+, 5.8war650

DH Pearce: 355pa, 7.9b%/17.7k%, .288bip/.270avg, .219bip, 118wrc+, 1.5war650
3B Devers: 314pa, 8.0b%/23.6k%, .337bip/.281avg, .205iso, 113wrc+, 2.6war650

C Martin: 373pa, 13.1b%/22.5k%, .255bip/.222avg, .178iso, 103wrc+, 3.1war650
SS Bogaerts: 637pa, 8.8b%/18.5k%, .328bip/.276avg, .150iso, 102wrc+, 3.8war650

SS Solarte: 520pa, 8.8b%/12.3k%, .264bip/.261avg, .176iso, 104wrc+, 1.9war650
1B Moreland: 556pa, 9.9b%/19.8k%, .269bip/.244avg, .193iso, 98wrc+, 0.9war650

2B Travis: 204pa, 2.9b%/21.1k%, .313bip/.263avg, .179iso, 95wrc+, 2.2war650
LF Beni: 667pa, 11.5b%/17.1k%, .294bip/.263avg, .156iso, 102wrc+, 2.1war650

CF Pillar: 652pa, 5.4b%/15.6k%, .291bip/.262avg, .153iso, 91wrc+, 2.3war650
CF Bradley: 588pa, 8.7b%/21.8k%, .287bip/.242avg, .154iso, 89wrc+, 2.3war650

RF Grichuk: 454pa, 6.4b%/30.0k%, .270bip/.222avg, .232iso, 88wrc+, 1.4war650
C Vazquez: 381pa, 5.0b%/18.4k%, .325bip/.272avg, .095iso, 79wrc+, 1.7war650


UT Kendrys: 583pa, 6.9b%/22.5k%, .281bip/.250avg, .194iso, 96wrc+, -0.8war650
UT Hanley: 578pa, 8.7b%/21.5k%, .278bip/.248avg, .200iso, 99wrc+, 0.2war650

OF Teoscar: 115pa, 6.1b%/35.7k%, .379bip/.290avg, .355iso, 153wrc+, 5.7war650
IF Lin: 85pa, 14.1b%/25.9k%, .420bip/.292avg, .083iso, 112wrc+, 5.4war650

IF Diaz: 302pa, 5.0b%/14.9k%, .284bip/.261avg, .141iso, 84wrc+, 0.9war650
IF Holt: 183pa, 10.9b%/18.0k%, .254bip/.209avg, .063iso, 59wrc+, -3.2war650

C Maile: 161pa, 4.3b%/24.8k%, .245bip/.192avg, .099iso, 37wrc+, -0.4war650
C Leon: 290pa, 8.6b%/25.5k%, .268bip/.212avg, .115iso, 58wrc+, 0.0war650

Injured Longterm

SS Tulo: 213pa, 7.0b%/16.0k%, .274bip/.249avg, .122iso, 80wrc+, 0.3war650
2B Pedroia: 406pa, 10.8b%/10.1k%, .316bip/.296avg, .110iso, 108wrc+, 3.2war650


Come at me, Parkie.
hypobole - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#356514) #
Oddly enough, the only pitcher tp throw 230 innings the past 2 years ranked 40th among QS in ERA and 17th in FIP.

Pitching so many innings has implications beyond individual stats as well.

Fewer innings for middle relievers - bridging the gap to the high leverage guys.

More starts for a workhorse means fewer starts for the guys in AAA who are rarely as good and often cannon fodder.

grjas - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#356515) #
Itís interesting to note how good the Jays record is despite the fact the starters have been mediocre, and they have 3 of the worst performing offensive players in the league right now in Gift, Grichuk and Travis. To date, they are clearly finding a way to win.

I would expect Travis and Stroman to turn it around, and if Grichuk doesnít Hernandez will take over. Gift I suspect is not long for this land. Plus JD will be back at some point.

So an optimist would say we could get even stronger. A pessimist might say weíve been lucky to date and unless we fix our holes we could fall to earth.

I choose to be an optimist. Itís spring (sort of) after all.
uglyone - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#356516) #
Hypobole - yep, reliever usage is a huge thing that gets missed when we ignore the ip/gs number.

And it's more than just the rest the bullpen can get to be more useful in future games....it's maybe more important that even in that pitcher's starts, a guy who goes 7ip per start completely gets rid of the need to use the fungible middle relievers that ever staff has in close games....if the game is close that 7ip per start pitcher can hand the ball directly to his 1 or 2 high leverage relievers, who are usually far better than the middle relief guys.
Chuck - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#356517) #
but isn't IP/gs HUGELY dependent on, say, ERA or FIP (actual performance)

There are clearly cultural determinants as well, and not just in the NL where a SP can be removed for a pinch-hitter. Porcello and Sale in Boston both sport sub-2 ERAs and have averaged 6.25 and 5.5 innings. Could just be early season caution, but Sale has not yet had a 100-pitch start.

I think that yesterday's 230 innings is today's 200, and yesterday's 200 is today's 180. This reduction may equally motivated by health concerns as well as by the metrics typically indicating a decline in performance the 3rd and 4th time through a lineup, especially when 8 guys are in the bullpen all ready to throw 95 MPH.

pubster - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#356518) #
Ha! I didn't realize nobody throws 230 innings anymore.
hypobole - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#356519) #
Maybe you can help me find a good used horse dealership.
uglyone - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#356520) #
"There are clearly cultural determinants as well,"

and this is a big reason why the analytics guys have ignored the ip/gs starts - so much of their early push with pitching metrics was making the argument that traditional managing was ruining pitchers through arm-shredding overuse - and that smart use of relievers and quicker hooks with SP based on leverage and times through the order could make for huge improvements in performance.

so built-in to the new wave of analytics is the idea that historically, higher IP/GS has just been the result of poor management, and not pitcher skill - and to their credit, this is absolutely true much of the time.

thing is, though, i think the baseball world has generally all adapted to this new reality now - managers just don't shred arms anymore, and the 100-pitch limit is pretty much a rule of thumb now.

10yrs ago we had large discrepancies in SP usage based on things other than talent and performance, now we don't really.

So now, with managing quirks regarding SP usage largely a thing of the past, and with everyone now using their relievers in largely the same way, I think at this point IP/start is probably a very good indicator of a certain type of actual skill - or, at the very least, should be factored into any analysis of their ERA/FIP/any other rate metrics.
pubster - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#356521) #
So did the Cubs break Kerry Wood and Mark Prior?
bpoz - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#356522) #
Very interesting and relevant discussion about pitcher usage. S Matz was unhappy to be pulled in the 4th inning last night for a pinch hitter.
Others don't want to be pulled due to competitive fires. Nolan Ryan.
bpoz - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#356523) #
Biagini pitched 5 innings on April 9 and then threw 106 pitches on April 7th. 8 day layoff.
85bluejay - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#356524) #
I wonder if a rebuilding team will develop a system where you have 3 pitchers try to get through 3 innings each (40-50 pitches) - 3 man rotation - 2 days rest between starts - that's 9 pitchers and 3 guys used as traditional BP guys - baseball should just stop assigning wins & saves to pitchers.
Chuck - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#356525) #
3 pitchers try to get through 3 innings each

I think models like this are problematic because they ignore the possibility of ineffectiveness. If a pitcher has a hard time getting through 1 inning on a given day, asking him to go 3 does nobody any good.

bpoz - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#356526) #
Very good point Chuck.

I lean towards the Cubs breaking Wood and Prior. Billy Martin broke the Oakland rotation IMO. McCatty, Norris and 2 others.

It is hard to build a rotation. Our 2010 rotation did not last long. But that was not over use IMO.
pubster - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#356529) #
Predetermining innings has the problem of being very inflexible.

What happens if a pitcher is pitching great. 9 up 9 down, 27 pitches thrown.
Mike Green - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#356530) #
I think models like this are problematic because they ignore the possibility of ineffectiveness. If a pitcher has a hard time getting through 1 inning on a given day, asking him to go 3 does nobody any good.

If you are going to run a 3X3 "rotation", you've got to have one guy in the pen ready to go a couple of innings if one of your three doesn't have it that day.  I think that it is doable, and that it would take a forward-thinking organization to implement. 
pubster - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#356531) #
I don't think it's lack of forward thinking thats preventing this from being implemented.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#356532) #
At the time of Wood and Prior, the Cubs were desparate to be relavent. No Word Series appearances since forever and not having pitchers this good, coincided with a poor coaching staff. They were expected to go nine and make 35-36 starts and the kids really tried. But every Team tries this to a lesser extent.

If the Starting Pitcher consistently has trouble going twice through the opposing lineups, an upgraded must be acquired. Getting through means adding a different pitch to the pitch mix, like using a Slider or a Curve for the first time in the game. It can make all the difference.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#356533) #
Any new ideas on how players may be used/handled/dealt with/etc must be cleared by the MLBPA. Most ideas, like on this site, would never fly.
Mike Green - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#356534) #
Incidentally if you're doing a 3 X 3 "rotation", you don't literally have to do 3 innings.  You could do 40 (or 50) pitches, or 12 batters.  The key point, I suppose, is that in the ordinary course, you know when you will be bringing on the next pitcher.  It would normally be a good idea to go R-L or L-R with the first two. 
Mike Green - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#356535) #
The MLBPA has no say in how managers use pitchers.
mathesond - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#356537) #
Who can forget Tony LaRussa doing just this with the '93 Athletics?
Richard S.S. - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#356538) #
Oh, really - the MLBPA have a lot of say in adding or losing jobs, or until a Pitcher complains. Then it changes.
Mike Green - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#356540) #
The lineup vs. Sabathia tonight:
Pearce 0 Hernandez 7 Smoak 3 Solarte 5 Pillar 8 Diaz 6 Grichuk 9 Maile 0 Travis 4

The Saturday game is a day game after a night game, so Maile will likely get at least two games against the Yankees.
Gerry - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#356541) #
Ben Nicholson Smith just tweeted this and it surprised me:

Per @statcast's sprint speed metric, these are #BlueJays' fastest runners:

Aledmys Diaz 28.6 ft/sec
Teoscar Hernandez 28.2 ft/sec
Kevin Pillar 28.2 ft/sec
Randal Grichuk 27.9 ft/sec

I didn't see Diaz as our fastest runner.
pubster - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#356542) #
"Any new ideas on how players may be used/handled/dealt with/etc must be cleared by the MLBPA"

If one team wanted to use a 3x3 approach to pitching they wouldn't need approval from MLBPA.

Maybe this would be an issue at the next round of bargaining, but I doubt it.
Mike Green - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#356543) #
Courtesy of Ben Nicholson-Smith on twitter and Statcast, the Blue Jays top sprint speeds belong to:
Aledmys Diaz 28.6 ft/sec  Teoscar Hernandez 28.2 ft/sec  Kevin Pillar 28.2 ft/sec  Randal Grichuk 27.9 ft/sec

I would not have guessed that Diaz would top the list.  He's among the faster shortstops in the game.  Travis and Granderson are both a little below average (although both are excellent baserunners).  Maile has pretty good speed for a catcher, and Martin is a little above average for a catcher even at his age. Donaldson has been the slowest third baseman in the game (with injury undoubtedly playing a role). 

Chuck - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#356544) #
Who can forget Tony LaRussa doing just this with the '93 Athletics?

Evidently, I am an example of someone who could forget. It rings a bill now that I read this, but I can't recall how long it lasted.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#356545) #
I didn't refresh before posting, so didn't see that Gerry had said the same thing.  How many Cokes do I owe now?
mathesond - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#356547) #
Not too long - as I recall, the A's staff wasn't so hot too begin with, which is why they tried it in the first place.
92-93 - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#356548) #
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2018&position=&team=TOR&min=10

Interesting that Donaldson's speed is down that much. Sample size issue? Lingering calf problems, and not just the shoulder? Hmmm.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#356551) #
Cal Ripken relied on positioning to make him on of the best in the Baseball. It canít be a shock when Diaz does the same. To do what heís doing means heís comfortable as a Toronto Blue Jay.
Chuck - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#356553) #
Has Luke traded in his bat for a light saber?
Magpie - Thursday, April 19 2018 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#356555) #
It rings a bill now that I read this, but I can't recall how long it lasted.

About a week. One of those goofy things you try after the All-Star Break when you're 39-50.
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