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I know, it's four weeks away.

But why not? Like there's anything else to look forward to with this bunch? Besides Cavan Biggio inserting himself into the Rookie-of-the-Year discussion? Not the young Jays infielder we were expecting it from, but there ya go.

There are chips the team could conceivably cash in for something else, something that might - might - be useful down the road. Some of those chips might actually be worth holding onto, but most should, and probably will, be cashed in.

Justin Smoak - You take whatever you can get. He's a free agent when the season's done. Also, clearing Smoak off the roster would give Tellez a chance to be a full time first baseman and see if he's up to the task. It also gives Teoscar Hernandez a chance to be a full time DH. Teoscar's best chance of becoming a useful major leaguer is turning into Edwin Encarnacion-lite, and Edwin didn't become Edwin until they stopped asking him to do stuff on the field that he wasn't capable of doing. Like wear a glove, and field a position. Which is where Hernandez is at right now.

Freddy Galvis - I think you have to take what you can get. The team has an option on Galvis for next year, and Bo Bichette may not be ready for Prime Time four weeks from now. But Galvis will be 30 in November and he's unlikely to be a part of the next good Toronto team.

Eric Sogard - I think you have to take what you can get. Which won't be much. But he looks to me like a 33 year old having a good and flukey season. He definitely won't be part of the next good Toronto team.

Aaron Sanchez - You take whatever you can get - a ride to the airport, a sack of batting practice baseballs. I actually think Sanchez might be fixable, but I don't think the Blue Jays have anyone around who can fix him. Which makes him pretty useless here.

Ken Giles - You take what you can get. Useful relief pitchers grow on trees, although the Blue Jays seem to have a knack for finding ones that have grown up all wrong. Seriously, Derek Law?

Daniel Hudson - You take whatever you can get. Useful relief pitchers grow on trees, I tell you.

Joe Biagini - See Daniel Hudson.

Sam Gaviglio - See Joe Biagini.

David Phelps - See Sam Gaviglio.

Marcus Stroman - This is the tough one - not only is he pretty good, the team controls him for another year and he's expressed willingness to sign an extension. I'd like to know what he had in mind. He's not an ace, and if he's looking to get paid like one, I'd have to stop and think. In Stroman's case - and his alone - it depends on what's being offered.
Trade Deadline Frenzy! | 85 comments | Create New Account
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Mike Green - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#376549) #
Completely disagree about Giles. In the playoffs, he's one of the 5 or 6 pitchers you can lean on.  And he's under control for another year. If you don't get a good offer, keep him.
Dr B - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#376551) #
I just shook the tree outside and a handful fell of useful relievers fell out. No elite relievers though. I have no objection to trading Giles, but not for the sake of trading.

And you have to at least try Sanchez in the bullpen to see if he can recover some of that ole magic.
Glevin - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#376552) #
Giles is not a take what you can get type of pitcher. He might have as much value as Stroman to a playoff team. I'd be shocked if someone doesn't offer something good for him.
Nigel - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#376554) #
I'm in favour of moving Giles but for a different reason. The team desperately needs a CF and there isn't one in the organization (Stevenson might be the best bet currently). The only assets on this list that could possibly garner a CF would be Stroman or Giles. Stroman is far more valuable to this team than Giles. While Giles might be valuable in high leverage roles in a future playoff scenario, that is so far down the road I think you deal with that scenario when it happens. So, I would be in favour of moving Giles as an asset reallocation trade rather than just as a deadline dump. I agree that there is no reason to deal him just for the sake of dealing him.

I would be in favour of moving one of Sogard and Galvis but not both. I would favour moving Galvis because of Sogard's positional flexibility and I'm just not sure that moving Sogard would get you anything in return. Galvis is probably about as valuable as Pearce was last year.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#376555) #
[Giles] might have as much value as Stroman to a playoff team

Which makes him the most likely to bring back something useful. I like him too, and he's under control for another year, but is this team going to need someone like him next year? That seems a little unlikely. In which case, I think the question is whether you're thinking of buying out some of his free agent years or not.
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#376556) #
Try to extend Sanchez(buy low)- all the others on the trade market

Atlanta will probably balk at giving up Christian Pache but how about Drew Waters?
SK in NJ - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#376557) #
I think Giles will have more value than Stroman with way bullpens are managed in the playoffs.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#376561) #
SK, you might be correct if they were both rentals, but with another year of control for each, Stroman should provide more overall value.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#376564) #
Flukey year or not, I'd be in favor of keeping Sogard rather than give him away for a minimal return. He can fill in at different positions and is a good influence on and off the field which is something you need with a team full of rookies.
PeterG - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#376565) #
I see Giles as having more value. He is an elite closer at the present time. Stroman is a very good starter but not elite. I don't think the period of control will make any difference.

One or the other could have more or less value to whichever teams may be interested so there is no way of telling which one may bring the best return as it may depend on the other teams involved and the eventual trade partner.
Gerry - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#376566) #
If a team needs a closer, Giles would be one of the best available. If a team needs a setup man for the closer, someone to pitch the eighth, then is Giles the guy? I mean mentally, how will he pitch as the non-closer?

I don't know but its something I would check on if I was looking to acquire him.
bpoz - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#376567) #
I just compared D Price and Stroman for this year and 2017 and 2018. Stroman's 2018 looks terrible because of injury. His strong personality caused him to come back too soon from the ST shoulder injury then he did it again with the blister issue. He definitely was not going to pitch 200 innings in 2018 but could have better quality and quantity than the 102 innings of 2018 IMO.

Price is having a good and long career but currently does not look better than Stroman. In the 2018 playoff Price out pitched Verlander which resulted in the WS championship. For playoff purposes all 4 of Verlander, Sale, Price and Stroman are capable of going deep into games which is a necessity for winning the championship.

If Stroman gets into the playoff this year with his new team then we will see. Right now his playoff performance is ok but SSS.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#376569) #
"Useful relief pitchers grow on trees"

Giles isn't useful, he's been elite. 222 relievers have 20 IP this season. Giles is 1st in FIP, 7th ERA, 4th K/9, 2nd K-BB%.
jerjapan - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#376572) #
Stro is the more valuable asset, no question, but the price for relievers is highest right now, so their value is closer than it would be otherwise. 

I have no idea how a Sanchez extension could be worked to make sense - too much risk for both sides, although I suppose something creative could work.  I'd rather try him in the pen, but then who starts? 

I continue to disagree that we have no CF depth.  What we have is volatile, agreed, but either of Alford or Pompey could handle the position if healthy.  I understand writing Tulo off due to injuries, but these guys seem too young to toss aside.  That said, Alford is injured again and Pompey is only now getting into games.   Jonathan Davis could surprise.  A position player could be moved to CF.  Stevenson continues to surprise.  I'm hoping we make best player available moves with our big trade chips, not trades for need.
Sogard was worth 1.1 fWAR in 2017, and is at 2 and counting this year.  Trouble is that -0.8 he put up last year.  He does strike me as a late bloomer, so I agree that a Steve Pearce type return is reasonable.
And I'm for keeping Galvis as a defensive sub for Bichette next year.  Bichette can move to 2nd, Biggio to 3rd and Vlad to 1b.  Except that Vlad has only ever played third in the minors ...
scottt - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#376574) #
It's early to panic over the outfield.
Grichuk provides a solid baseline in right. Gurriel looks amazing in left.
Eventually you need someone in center but you got a least a year's worth of ABs to give to guys who cost the minimum to try to find something.

Spifficus - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#376583) #
Stroman would pitch twice in a 7 game series for anyone but a healthy Cleveland or the Dodgers. He's a #2 quality starter, and that has a lot of value.

Of course Giles has been a downright filthy closer this year. He gets some dings for his more pedestrian performance last year (though it came around as he got his slider back) and some of the issues he had in the 2017 playoffs (which could be looked at as the same issue). He'll carry a lot of value, but probably not as much as Stroman.

Of course, following a bit on what you said, 85BlueJay, I'd love to see if the Braves might do both for Pache and some of their pitching prospects.
dan gordon - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#376585) #
I'd certainly want to sign Giles to an extension if the price was reasonable, unless they can get a great return for him. He's been one of the best closers in baseball since 2014, and he's only 28 years old. If you can't get much for Sogard, might as well keep him, too. Given how well he hit in 2017, maybe this year isn't a TOTAL fluke. I would think they should be able to get something decent for Galvis, given the option year, and Bichette will make Galvis surplus next year. Put Sanchez in the bullpen and see if he can turn things around one inning at a time. Please do something with Drury - trade, release, demote, I don't care which.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 03 2019 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#376592) #
Do we really need to argue about who is more useful between Stroman and Giles? I think it only matters to the acquiring team to decide who is more useful.

Packaging them both to a team would be ideal.
Glevin - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 02:28 AM EDT (#376598) #
"The team desperately needs a CF and there isn't one in the organization (Stevenson might be the best bet currently)"

I don't think you worry too much about filling specific positions until you are close to contending. If there's an offer coming back with someone who happens to fill a hole, great, but if you're chasing a CFer in a trade, you are going to get a worse return.
scottt - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 05:54 AM EDT (#376600) #
Whoever gets Stroman would have him for 2 playoffs, a QO and would potentially be able to extend him.
AA gave up Thor and 2 other guys for Dickie. The main difference there was that Dickie was old and willing to sign a team friendly extension.

Still, Stroman tops all the lists I've seen and everybody needs starting pitching except the Dodgers.
No need to package all our trade chips together to get some return.

Shoeless Joe - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 06:51 AM EDT (#376601) #
I think in the draft you always go BPA, but in trades I don't see any reason why we shouldn't target a new CF.

I have Brennan Davis from the Cubs high on my list and I think we will be close to a top 100 prospect by the end of the year, he would look great in a package with some of the Cubs pitchers.
scottt - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 07:09 AM EDT (#376602) #
All of the playoffs teams in the AL have elite starting pitching.
The Angels have Mike Trout in center field and they never make the playoffs.

Pitchers always get injured. You can't have too many.

They should go best pitcher available.

Just read a Royal blog that suggest they should trade for Ellsbury and a bunch of Yankees A ball pitchers. Yikes! Steinbrenner doesn't even care about the luxury tax.

Meanwhile all the Yankees blogs talk about trading Frazier and whoever will need to be protected next year. Like Mike Ford and McBroom. Sheesh!

Glevin - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 07:57 AM EDT (#376604) #
"I think in the draft you always go BPA, but in trades I don't see any reason why we shouldn't target a new CF. "

Because when you have the asset that people want, you have negotiating power. When you chase specific types of assets, you give that power to other teams. How many teams would be players for Stroman? Let's say 10 for arguments sake. How many of those have legitimate interesting CF prospects? 2 or 3? You've just shrunk your market and therefor your bargaining power. Maybe the Cubs are offering Brennan Davis but the Phillies are offering Alec Bohm and the Braves are offering 2 of their top pitching prospects. You're going to get a lesser return because you're worried about fitting positions in a couple of years before hoping to compete? Sure, if offers are even, you would prefer a certain position, and you almost certainly aren't going after catching prospects, but limiting yourself to a specific position is going to lesson your return.
85bluejay - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 07:58 AM EDT (#376605) #
Have to agree with Glevin - the rebuilding Jays should take the best package offered regardless of position - maybe when they are contending, the team can look to plug a specific position - and please, no obsession with near ready prospects.
Jonny German - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 08:13 AM EDT (#376606) #
If they trade Stroman I'll be the guy saying "Bad trade! Who'd we get?". It will take incredible luck to get back a starting pitcher who will perform as well as Stroman in 2021-2023. So I think the front office should be trying to extend him. They need pitching pitching pitching, both right now and in the next 3 years. There may not be an obvious 'centre fielder of the future' in the system right now, but there is a very long list of guys that might fill the position nicely.
scottt - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 08:46 AM EDT (#376608) #
Pitching isn't really a position though. That's more like 5 positions if you're thinking starter and 12 if you're thinking pen as well.
Spifficus - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#376609) #
Yeah, this is more of a weighting or tiebreaking discussion as opposed to a driving motivation. You won't take a weak CF prospect for Stroman vs a strong SS, but if you have two trades that are in the same ballpark in terms of value and one addresses your organizational needs better than another, you'll probably lean towards the former.
hypobole - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 09:16 AM EDT (#376610) #
"It will take incredible luck to get back a starting pitcher who will perform as well as Stroman in 2021-2023."

Except no one knows how well Stroman will perform in in 2021-2023.
AWeb - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 09:16 AM EDT (#376611) #
I don't think it should be overlooked how little money the Jays have committed to the roster in the next few years when looking at extending Stroman. If you gave him 3 years, 90 million (big overpay, to ensure he signs), that barely dents the overall payroll. Grichuk at 11 milion/year, Gurriel at $3-6 million for 4 more years, Galvis has an option for $5.5 next year, and I think literally everyone else is either on a rookie-scale deal, or going to arbitration? Jansen, Guerrero, Tellez, and Biggio are almost free for another year, relatively speaking. All of the starters and relievers seem to be in the same boat. Look at this: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/toronto-blue-jays-salaries-and-contracts.shtml. 40% of the payroll this year is for guys not on the team, and it's still a low payroll.

The young hitters are going to make this team too competent to be in the running for the top few picks, so I can't see any reason not to go ahead and pay Stroman. And don't trade literally every reliever, if for no other reason than to keep the Montoyo sane. Managers have to figure out (performance and personality) how to leverage reliever roles, so keep a few guys even if they are just mid-bullpen types. And a bit of player continuity on the pitching staff wouldn't hurt things from a fans perspective either.
bpoz - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#376615) #
I am almost sure that the FO has had talks with Stroman about an extension. IMO it would be negligent to not have that discussion unless both parties have agreed to have the discussion in the off season.

If the FO knows the probable numbers expected then that info can be told to any trading partner. LAA definitely have to do everything to succeed while M Trout is there. Stroman would be a big help to them. Especially if extended.
jerjapan - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#376619) #
Stroman has said publicly that he hasn't been approached about a discussion.  I agee bpoz that it would be negligent not to have had that discussion.  Atkins has stated that the FO has discussed an extension, but the situation remains odd to me.
bpoz - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#376620) #
I cannot remember the details of the Halladay trade regarding how/why he extended with the Phillies.

There are probably guidelines.

Madbum is doing a very strange thing by providing a list of teams for something. I suppose it is for some personal gain.
dalimon5 - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#376621) #
"Still, Stroman tops all the lists I've seen and everybody needs starting pitching except the Dodgers.
No need to package all our trade chips together to get some return."

Let's just hope reports of Syndergaard and potentially Strasburg being available are wrong.


dalimon5 - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#376622) #
I'll make a prediction...fresh off my Tulowitzki 2.5 + WAR in 2019 prediction...


Astros and Padres battle it out for Stroman...then the Padres make a stunning move for someone better like Synderggard while the Astros cheap out for Boyd from Detroit so they can keep Tucker and Whitley.

I predict the Athletics then step up big time and trade Luzardo or more likely AJ Puk to the Blue Jays for Stroman or potentially Giles and Stroman.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#376623) #
I imagine teams will want to see a few more healthy outings from Giles and Stroman before making a substantial offer for either player.
christaylor - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#376626) #
Trade Eric Sogaard for a pitching coach who can fix Sanchez and/or convince him to try the pen?
PeterG - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#376627) #
I think Giles may have satisfied that concern already. Certainly another successful outing on the weekend will remove any doubt. Teams not needing a closer but desiring a reliever will call on Hudson. Stroman will need a couple of good starts to relieve any health concerns.
SK in NJ - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#376628) #
I'm also on the "take the best offer available" boat. It would be nice if a capable CF option was included in any deal, but the Jays are not a CF away from competing, so they have to just figure out how to add the best talent they can. Plus it is now or never in terms of finding out if Alford and Pompey are actual assets, of course Pompey has to go a week without a IL trip first.

I think Giles will be the first domino. He's (presumably) healthy now, and absolutely dominating. Stroman's injury sets his trade value back a bit, but hopefully it is not serious and he will get a start or two to show he is fine. If he has to miss a start and/or the All Star Game, then so be it.

As mentioned, Hudson has probably turned himself into a trade asset. Not a big one, but could fetch another Waguespack type of prospect. Not sure who else could be moved from the pitching side. Sanchez has been awful and no one else in the pen is really standing out. I think Phelps will end up being the closer after Giles is moved, and then his option will be picked up for 2020. He looks like more of a 2020 trade chip.
PeterG - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#376629) #
I agree that Phelps will be retained but I see him more as a setup type than a closer. I think Romano will get a real shot at the closing role.

I agree that there is no rush to find a CF and that as stated, all homegrown possibilities have yet to be exhausted.
Jevant - Thursday, July 04 2019 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#376633) #
If Cristian Pache is available in any capacity for Stroman or Giles, that is a no-brainer slam dunk have to take it trade for the Jays. I highly doubt we'd get something that good, as awesome as that would be.
99BlueJaysWay - Friday, July 05 2019 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#376682) #
This seems like a good place to share this tool:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
dalimon5 - Friday, July 05 2019 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#376687) #
At mlb trade rumors they are reporting about the crazy high price the Tigers are asking for Matthew Boyd, then they go into detail to show that while his home runs allowed have spiked he's still:

- in elite company trailing only Max Schezer, Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale for strikeouts (he's K'ing 32% of batters he faces

- has 3 years of control left

- has a miniscule 2+ million dollar salary


Just strikes me as odd that everybody wants a guy who has elite numbers, lots of control and is cheap but they expect the price to be not exorbitant. Wake up GMs...
dan gordon - Friday, July 05 2019 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#376692) #
Boyd was terrible in 2015, and not very good in 2016, 2017 or 2018. He had a great 2 month start to the 2019 season, but since the start of June, 6 starts, he has an ERA over 6.00, and has given up 12 HR's in 34 innings. There is rightfully a lot skepticism about that 2 month performance to start this season. It looks like it might be an outlier, although he is continuing to register a lot of K's in this most recent rough patch.
scottt - Friday, July 05 2019 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#376693) #
It's an auction.

Because of the way free agency goes--at a snail's pace--it's great to know it will all be over in a few weeks.

There's a few teams who needs starting pitching and can't afford to stand pat: Houston, NYY, Milwaukee, Philadelphia...

There's a few that really need relief pitching: Dodgers, Cubs, Braves...

Of course, there are other teams selling as well.

scottt - Friday, July 05 2019 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#376694) #
It's because he wasn't any good before that he's cheap. You can't really have both.


dalimon5 - Friday, July 05 2019 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#376697) #
You guys can't pretend that Sogard and Galvis are valuable in the trade market or to resign after half a season and proclaim that Gurriel Jr is awesome if you're not going to extend that same praise to Matthew Boyd.

The guy is not as good as the aces but when you factor in the contract and salary he's probably looking at a floor value of Marcus Stroman.


You can't have it both ways indeed.
dan gordon - Friday, July 05 2019 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#376699) #
Sogard hit well in 2017 and then was hurt last year. Galvis has been a pretty good hitter and a great fielder prior to this year. The thing with Boyd is that the first 2 months of this year were completely out of line with his previous performance for 4 years, and he now seems to be reverting to his previous performance level.
Glevin - Saturday, July 06 2019 @ 05:14 AM EDT (#376709) #
"Sogard hit well in 2017 and then was hurt last year. Galvis has been a pretty good hitter and a great fielder prior to this year. The thing with Boyd is that the first 2 months of this year were completely out of line with his previous performance for 4 years, and he now seems to be reverting to his previous performance level."

Which is still a 2 WAR pitcher under contract for 3.5 more years. Boyd will cost a lot if a team wants him.
cascando - Saturday, July 06 2019 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#376727) #
I might be the only on that thinks this, but I like Justin Smoak and if he has no real value on the trade market, I think the Jays should just keep him. He probably wouldn't cost much to extend for a couple of years and it's not like the organization is bursting with above average bats. I suppose it partly depends on what you think of Tellez--I'm not a believer.

As a guy that hits enough to DH and plays a decent 1B, I see there being room for Smoak for the next couple of years. They're different players, but Smoak is still a year younger than Edwin was in his last year as a Jay. If all they can get for Smoak is another of these 40FV "prospects", what do you really lose by keeping him?
dan gordon - Saturday, July 06 2019 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#376733) #
"Which is still a 2 WAR pitcher under contract for 3.5 more years. Boyd will cost a lot if a team wants him"

Boyd's total WAR from 2015 - 2018 was 3.2, which averages out to 0.8 WAR per year. If you throw out the 2015 season, 2016 - 2018 averages out to 1.4 WAR per year. His ERA/FIP by year, starting in 2015 - 7.53/6.59, 4.53/4.75, 5.27/4.51, 4.39/4.45. I sure wouldn't be trading away major assets for a guy with that track record. If he had continued to pitch like he did in the first 2 months of this year, OK, but he's been pretty bad the last 6 starts.
Glevin - Sunday, July 07 2019 @ 12:21 AM EDT (#376736) #
Fangraphs has Boyd at 2.1 WAR, 2.2 WAR, and 2.8 WAR the last 2.5 seasons. He's been a top-30 starting pitcher in that period and there are some real gains this year. Nobody is saying you should treat him like an ace, but if he's even a 2.5 WAR starter with a great contract, that's extremely valuable. He will definitely get more than Stroman on the market because of the extra 2 years of control which is huge.
krose - Sunday, July 07 2019 @ 01:36 AM EDT (#376737) #
If Iím a GM responsible for finding a starting pitcher for a pennant drive and for the playoffs, I want someone who can pitch consistently well against stacked lineup. That means a short term, front of the rotation starter would have more value than a controllable fourth or fifth starter. Stroman likely has more value than Boyd to this years contenders.
Glevin - Sunday, July 07 2019 @ 02:31 AM EDT (#376741) #
Except Boyd has been a lot better than Stroman this year as well and Boyd is striking out 12 batters per 9 innings while Stroman is at 7. Yes, playoff teams want that ace to carry them, but that's not Stroman either. He's a consistently very good pitcher that would slot into the same slot as Boyd in most playoff rotations.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 07 2019 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#376745) #
Totally agree with Glevin. There's no question Boyd will fetch more. Obviously these are our opinions and the final trades will tell us where the values end up being, but if it's true that playoff teams wants Stroman more than Boyd then you should automatically move Bumgarner to the top of the list. Or are you guys gonna say that he hasn't been pitching well lately too?

Stroman dominating the AL East and playoffs was a yunger and stronger pitcher. That 95-96 MPH is gone and so is the slider which was one of the best in the league. He's not a big strikeout pitcher and I bet teams are salivating at the chance to "tweak" Matt Boyd whether that's pitching to contact or better game calling or what...he has the goods.


Stroman is as good or better than Boyd...i'm not arguing that...i'm arguing that because of the contract and control Boyd becomes more attractive.
Spifficus - Sunday, July 07 2019 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#376746) #
Actually, K and BB rates are the only thing that Boyd outperforms Stroman in (which makes him a FIP darling, of course). Stroman has half the homer rate, which is why the spread isn't larger.

Looking at baseball savant, however, paints it more as a case of taking two different roads and ending up at the same spot - Boyd has an xWOBA of .288 and Stroman has an xWOBA of .290.

All this, however, ignores one other potential factor - quality of the opposing offense. While Boyd is in the same division as the Twins (admittedly good), White Sox, Indians and Royals, Stroman gets the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and, well, the Orioles. Looking at the splits, though, it seems that it hasn't made as much of a difference as I would have guessed initially (Stroman's pitched fewer times against the Yankees and fewer times against the Marlins, for example).

In short: 2019 Stroman vs Boyd - It's closer than you'd think (whichever way you were thinking).
uglyone - Sunday, July 07 2019 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#376760) #
I'd be surprised if Boyd fetched more, based on two great hot months. He's a soft tossing lefty in weak division, after all. And he's already falling back to earth:

APR/MAY: 12gs, 6.0ip/gs, 62era-, 61fip-
JUN/JUL: 6gs, 5.7ip/gs, 131era-, 109fip-

So even if you're going with recent hotness, Boyd still isn't your man.

I have little doubt that most every GM would prefer to have stroman starting for them down the stretch, most by a good margin.

Spifficus - Sunday, July 07 2019 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#376762) #
Dalimon5 and Glevin are probably right that Boyd will fetch more, but I think that'll manifest itself in terms of breadth, not depth (ie more prospects of note, not the better prospect). A certain amount of that is going to come from what the extra years of control allow - if Detroit doesn't get an offer they're happy with, they can pull him off the market and hope that he bounces back and still have 6 more opportunities to trade him before free agency. Toronto only has 2 more. But yes, Stroman should be the one that sees a more prominent postseason role, and that's a significant counterbalance.
uglyone - Sunday, July 07 2019 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#376763) #
Career

Stroman: 126gs, 3.76era (89era-), 3.65fip (85fip-), 3.58xfip (84xfip-)
Boyd: 106gs, 4.88era (113era-), 4.57fip (105fip-), 4.57xfip (106xfip-)

Last 3yrs

Stroman: 70gs, 3.73era (85era-), 3.88fip (88fip-), 3.80xfip (86xfip-)
Boyd: 74gs, 4.53era (103era-), 4.23fip (96fip-), 4.46xfip (102xfip-)

This Year

Stroman: 18gs, 3.18era (70era-), 3.82fip (83fip-), 4.16xfip (91xfip-)
Boyd: 18gs, 3.87era (84era-), 3.56fip (77fip-), 3.34xfip (73xfip-)

Last 10

Stroman: 10gs, 3.36era (74era-), 4.33fip (94fip-), 4.22xfip
Boyd: 10gs, 4.76era (104era-), 4.62fip (99fip-), 3.12xfip



Seems like such a clear choice that I almost feel that some have an ulterior motive when it comes to praising Boyd.
krose - Sunday, July 07 2019 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#376766) #
Agree UO!
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 07 2019 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#376767) #
"Seems like such a clear choice that I almost feel that some have an ulterior motive when it comes to praising Boyd."

What kind of ulterior motive do you think some posters may have when it comes to praising a DET SP?
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 07 2019 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#376770) #
Futures Game aka "taking stock of current and potential future jays"
scottt - Sunday, July 07 2019 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#376773) #
So, who's in it?
Spifficus - Sunday, July 07 2019 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#376774) #
Oooooh, Sixto and Nate in a fastball-off. Both in triple digits, but Pearson's still got a couple MPHs on him (so far - Sanchez is still pitching).
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 07 2019 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#376776) #
Wow this game has been amazing. Here are some of my observations:

- Nate Pearson a beast...looks ready right now with a nasty nasty nasty fastball and slider/curve. They must have him developing a 3rd pitch because right now he looks like a RHP version of Aroldis Chapman. Silly nastiness.

- Matt Manning from DET did not impress. Good location but everything straight

- SD pitching prospect and rumoured target for Stroman pitched well...looks like a good LHP prospect

- Mackenzie Gore underwhelmed...just looks like Kershaw...not that impressive but he's supposed to be the best pitcher (not stuff)

- Mississauga native Jordan Balazanovic looked like the other best "pitcher" out of the pitchers with some good mixes...he's rumoured as "not for sale/trade" by the Twins

- Ian Anderson looks MLB ready now, another Atlanta Braves SP prospect looks ready right now with good command and stuff

- Houston's SP Bukauskas didn't pitch and he's the rumoured return for a rental

- Dodger's SP May was nasty as well...97 MPH with location and sink

- May, Anderson and Balazanovic were most impressive to me other than Nate Pearson who stole the show. Wow.

Let the kids play indeed...
scottt - Monday, July 08 2019 @ 05:34 AM EDT (#376781) #
I don't think the Padres are in on Stroman. They're not making the playoffs.
cascando - Monday, July 08 2019 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#376783) #
He's a soft tossing lefty in weak division, after all

Boyd has an average fastball velocity of 92.3. I'm not sure that qualifies as a soft-tossing lefty. There were reports in the spring that his fastball had ticked up and it has carried over into the season.

Boyd also has a great slider. He has come a long way. I see him as the type of lefty starter that gets better with age. I don't know who would bring back more at the deadline, but for me Boyd has more value, particularly with the extra years of control.

The more pressing issue, IMO, is that we shouldn't be trading Stroman.

DH - Tuesday, July 09 2019 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#376864) #
The Braves line up nicely as a trade partner. They could use a high-end starter and we could high-end pitching prospects. Anderson is very impressive. So is Kyle Wright. And Kolby Allard. And Kyle Muller...
dalimon5 - Thursday, July 11 2019 @ 12:12 AM EDT (#376900) #
Here's a link to a well researched article on potential Stroman landing spots with realistic trade proposals. I like a lot of the names coming back.
dalimon5 - Thursday, July 11 2019 @ 08:42 AM EDT (#376905) #
https://bluejaysnation.com/2019/07/10/finding-a-realistic-marcus-stroman-trade/
scottt - Thursday, July 11 2019 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#376949) #

Seems like teams want not just front line pitchers, but cheap controllable, front line pitchers.
As if.

Part of the discussion is should the Blue Jays get a pitcher or the best available players.
It's getting late for the latter. What they need is pitching.
It's not easy to flip prospects for pitchers later when you need them.
Case in point, Drury is still here. He was the "best available player" last year.

I don't like the Yankees as a trade partner.
They mostly want to unload Frazier, a bad defender with an attitude problem.
You can sign guys like that for cheap as free agents.
Their top prospect, Florial, can't hit. Fangraphs gave him a 30 hit tool back in April.
Still might work in the Bronx because he's a lefty, so should hit 20 in their ballpark.
Loaisiga is a short pitcher who gets hurt a lot but has upside.
Garcia is an even shorter pitcher who dominate with a fastball that might or might not play at the MLB level.

The Padres have a lot of interesting pitchers but they probably want more than an extra year since they're not really in it.

The Braves have 4 55 prospects at the top, including 2 pitchers, but I don't think AA is going to deal with Toronto.

The Twins have one lone interesting pitching prospect currently in AA.
I'd be surprised if they part way.





scottt - Friday, July 12 2019 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#376969) #
Zack Wheeler shows up a lot as a competitor for Stroman in a trade.
4.69  ERA in the NL.  I guess people like his FIP.

The Mets traded 3 players and 2 prospects for Cano who has 4 HR and a .646 OPS and Diaz who has a 5.5 ERA.
I guess part of that was making room for Alonso.

The players still want to get payed when they reach free agency, but the performance sure take a dive.

bpoz - Friday, July 12 2019 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#376976) #
Atkins still has to make the big trade acquisition. He has not tried yet.

His acquisitions are depth, they are cheap and they may work out.

Osuna was tainted when that trade was made. It seems a fine trade.

Maile and Gurriel were quite good moves.
scottt - Sunday, July 14 2019 @ 03:35 AM EDT (#377050) #
First move made.
Boston acquired Cashner.
Not much of a return for Baltimore. Two DSL players, none of them with notable signing bonus. Meh.
That doesn't exactly raise the stakes, except that there's one less starter to go and one less team to buy.

bpoz - Sunday, July 14 2019 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#377062) #
Great move for Boston. Cashner has an up and down career. This year is a good one so far. He is an AL East SP.
dan gordon - Sunday, July 14 2019 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#377079) #
Cashner is at $9.5 million with an option at $10 million for next year. The option becomes guaranteed if Cashner pitches another 90 2/3 innings this year, which is possible, but a bit of a stretch. Baltimore gets a CF with an OPS of .818 and 9 SB's plus a SS with an OPS of .700. Both are 17.
hypobole - Sunday, July 14 2019 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#377093) #
Gonna answer this here. Jays don't have to move Stroman and/or Giles at this trade deadline. Thing is, if they are healthy and pitching well, the return will probably never be higher, because the acquiring club will have them for 2 years of playoffs, plus a full season next year.

FO had Stro on the block this past offseason, offers weren't good enough, they held on to him. No 50 cents on the dollar. He looked good today and is worth a premium package. Of 78 qualified starters, he ranks 12th best in HR/9, 10th lowest hard contact, 5th highest soft contact. A contender with a good infield defence should be all over him.

If Giles isn't healthy, it sucks, but there's always the offseason. Probably won't get as much as a healthy Giles this deadline, but more than 50 cents, assuming he does come back to pitch well at some point after the deadline.

hypobole - Sunday, July 14 2019 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#377096) #
As for Stro's value, here's one take from a FG chat a couple of days ago.

Craig Edwards: As for Stromanís trade value generally, heís the best, most realistic option out there for every team. He isnít Syndergaard, but heís really good and arb eligible next season at a low rate which opens the number of suitors. He will need to make a few more starts because he hasnít started this month. I would imagine it would take one top-50ish prospect plus somebody else near the back of the top-100 to get a deal done assuming Stroman shows heís healthy.
scottt - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 07:01 AM EDT (#377113) #
The Twins are interested in a Stroman-Giles package.
They have marked Graterol as untouchable. (top 50 prospect)
A package of prospect would probably center around Balazovic who is in A+ ball and who is in the 95-100 range.

That's probably better than anything the Yankees would offer and I'm including guys like Loaisiga who can't stay healthy and Deivi Garcia who is a small guy with a fastball/curve combo that would work better as a closer.
scottt - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 08:35 AM EDT (#377116) #
OPS in the DSL does not mean much.
Those guys were not even in Boston's top 30 prospects.

scottt - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 08:48 AM EDT (#377117) #
Homer Bailey for a 45 middle infielder. Lots of speed, 90 run but weak arm, no power and no other tool.
Was ranked 17 in Oakland's system, mostly because he was a supplemental round 1 draft.
OBP of .292 at AA does not inspire.

bpoz - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#377119) #
FAs like B Harper and M Machado got expensive contracts. Trout got extended.

Maybe 2017 is a long time ago and times have changed, so a Verlander trade would not happen because you have to pay him a lot and also give up top prospects. With G Cole you did not have to pays as big a prospect package. In both cases you can make the case that the goal was winning the WS. If you failed to win the WS then you lost.

Only 1 was winner each year so if 3 mega expensive trades then still only 1 WS winner. The WS winner can be a non mega trade maker.
scottt - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#377121) #
Harper turned down a 300M extension with the Nationals.
He was on a quest to set a new record.
Trout is much more valuable than Harper so the Angels had no trouble with a record extension.

Baltimore was not in a position to offer Machado that type of money, especially to play shortstop.
Machado's lack of hustle probably cost him.
The Padres' window is just opening.
They would be best served by just waiting on their pitching prospects to mature.

scottt - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#377124) #
One of the focus for this month is to get something back for Sogard/Galvis/Smoak.
So we see the first two at the top of the lineup.
Sogard went 4 for 12 with 1 homerun against the Yanks.
Galvis only went 2 for 11.
Smoak went 0 for 7 and the Tellez demotion should give him more regular AB with the hope of getting hot.

hypobole - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#377127) #
OPS in the DSL does not mean much.
Those guys were not even in Boston's top 30 prospects.

Top 30 prospects don't mean much, rarely mean anything, when talking about DSL kids. Not saying they're good prospects. If they were, the Red Sox wouldn't have traded them for Cashner, just that Top 30 lists are really bad at ranking kids that young.
bpoz - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#377136) #
Tellez can go down until after the trade deadline without burning an option.

Sogard, Smoak and Galvis can get as many ABs as they can handle for any trade partner to see if they need to see. Biggio can also get full time ABs to build up his ML adjustment.
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