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Two extra-inning setbacks were among three one-run losses on a winless Wednesday on the farm.

Syracuse 6 Buffalo 4

The Bisons tied the game twice after the Mets went ahead but had no answer for a two-run seventh. Richard Ureña had the big swing for the Herd by hitting a three-run home run and had the other extra-base with a double. Forrest Wall had two hits, a walk and three stolen bases. Kevin Smith singled, walked and swiped a base and Logan Warmoth picked up two free passes. Breyvic Valera made a nice diving catch and started a 7-4 inning ending double play in the fifth. He was hit by a pitch in the bottom half of the inning and was replaced by Cullen Large.

Anthony Kay struck out six over 3-1/3 innings but four runs on four hits and three walks on his ledger won't return him to the big club anytime soon. Casey Lawrence stranded a runner and pitched 1-2/3 shutout frames. Dany Jiménez gave up a two-run dinger over 1-2/3 innings for the loss. Kirby Snead struck out all four men he faced and Hobie Harris struck out two more in a one-hit ninth.

Binghamton 8 New Hampshire 7 (10 Innings)

There is still nobody on the Fisher Cats pitching staff with a save in 2021. Curtis Taylor was an out away from getting one as New Hampshire held a 6-4 lead against the Mets affiliates. Instead, Taylor gave a two-run double that was booted by Reggie Pruitt in right field and that allowed the tying run to score from first. Taylor struck out four in his two innings of work. Mike Ellenbest coughed up two runs in the 10th and was tagged with the loss. Maximo Castillo surrendered four runs (two earned) over five innings on four hits and a walk to go along with four punch outs. Andrew McInvale turned in the best line of the night with two shutout frames, issuing just one walk and ringing up three batters.

Samad Taylor and Reggie Pruitt both homered for New Hampshire. Pruitt brought in another run with a groundout and Taylor stole a base. Otto Lopez had an RBI double among his three hits and Gabriel Moreno drove in a pair and had two hits on the night. L.J. Talley had a pinch-hit RBI single in the 10th. Austin Martin walked three times and Kevin Vicuña had a base hit and a walk. Nick Podkul singled and stole a base.

Eugene 6 Vancouver 5 (10 Innings)

Doubts about Philip Clarke staying in the squat will not be silenced after his fifth passed ball of the year in the 10th produced the winning run for the Giants affiliate. Parker Caracci didn't help his own cause either by walking four batters—one intentionally—over two innings to take the loss. C.J. Van Eyk gave up two runs in the first and one in the fifth over his 79-pitch outing, 49 for strikes. He allowed five hits and three walks while striking out three and getting six groundouts. All three walks came in the first. Justin Maese gave up two runs in three innings but struck out five.

Tanner Morris sent the game into overtime with a run-scoring single in 5h3 ninth. He reached base in all five plate appearances, finishing a homer short of the cycle while drawing a pair of walks. Tanner Kirwer doubled, singled and stole two bases. Ryan Gold was 2-for-5 with a run batted in. Spencer Horwitz drove in two by going 1-for-4 with a sacrifice fly.

Bradenton 1 Dunedin 0

Each team had just two hits apiece but a home run in the fourth by the Pirates affiliate off Jol Concepion was the difference. Concepion pitched the last six innings, allowing two hits and walking three but striking out six and racking up five outs on the grass. 2020 third-round pick Trent Palmer made his professional debut with three shutout innings, getting around two walks and a hit by pitch and striking out two. Palmer erased that plunk by starting a 1-6-3 double play to end the second.

Nine of the 10 Dunedin hitters struck out at least once with Addison Barger and Ryan Sloniger donning golden sombreros to contribute to Dunedin's 17 whiffs. Only Miguel Hiraldo avoided strike three. MacKenzie Mueller walked twice, getting a free pass in the third after a Harrison Ray double and a leadoff ball four in the fifth. P.K.Morris and Ray both walked to begin the seventh but that led nowhere. Orelvis Martinez started the fourth with a base hit and Morris reached on an error but they were left on the corners.

*** 3 Stars!!! ***

3. Jol Concepion, Dunedin

2. Richard Ureña, Buffalo

1. Tanner Morris, Vancouver

Extra innings

  • C's Plus Baseball has a chat with pitcher Paxton Schultz
  • C's play-by-play man Tyler Zickel has a conversation with C's skipper Donnie Murphy.
Swing and a Miss | 17 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
92-93 - Thursday, June 03 2021 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#399236) #
Kirby Snead has thrown 11.2 IP with an 18:4 K:BB, and it was mentioned here that he was on the taxi squad earlier this season. Next man up?
bpoz - Thursday, June 03 2021 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#399241) #
In the 1st 5 games of the season our Dunedin Jays lost all but scored 7,9,6,10,11 runs. Tampa's low score was 10 and high 25. Comparing that to last nights 1-0 loss is mind boggling. Robo umps.

I take it that adjustments have been made by the hitters and pitchers. I have no idea what those adjustments are.
hypobole - Thursday, June 03 2021 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#399242) #
So who is and isn't swinging and missing in the minors?
FG lists 874 qualified.
The Good only for this post.

Top 5% (up to 7% SwStr%) - 2 old guys in AAA Colon (6th best of 874 at 4.8%) and Valera. The only "kid" is High A Spencer Horwitz at 6.4%.

Top 10% (up to 8.2% SwStr%) - High A Tanner Morris 7.1 %. Both he and Horwitz will turn 24 this year. High A Tanner Kirwir even older at 25. The only real kid is A ball Leo Jimenez 7.8% who just turned 20 a couple of weeks back. He's at 88 wRC+ all due to a .368 OBP. He's batting .168, slugging .203. Kid really, really needs to put on some muscle.

Top 20% (up to 9.7% SwStr%) - Austin Martin 8.4%, Gabriel Moreno 9.0%, High A Cameron Eden 9.4%
Nigel - Thursday, June 03 2021 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#399244) #
Interestingly, Otto Lopez, who has traditionally had above average strike zone control, has had that deteriorate this year. All while having an excellent start to the year. It will be interesting to see if this is temporary or reflects a change in either approach or ability to control the strike zone.
hypobole - Thursday, June 03 2021 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#399246) #
Now The Bad
Worst 5% (over 20.5% SwStr%) No real prospects, only AA Demi 22.7%.

Worst 10% (18.4%) A ball Jhon Solarte 19.1%, Miguel Hiraldo 19% both 20 yrs old.

Worst 20% (16.4%) NAP Warmoth 17.6%, Low A Barger 21 yrs 17.5%,

Other notables, Orelvis 19 yrs 16.3%, Samad 22 yrs 14.1%, Riley Adams 25 yrs 14.0%, Kevin Smith 24 yrs 12.6%, Low A Zach Britton 22 yrs 10.9%, Otto Lopez 22 yrs, 10.0%

21 yr old Jordan Groshans not qualified with only 67 PA's, but belongs in the good. Tied with Austin Martin at 8.4%
bpoz - Thursday, June 03 2021 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#399253) #
Urena is an interesting youngish player. He has a lot of AAA experience. He should get 300 ABs in AAA this year. He could get to the ML this year. It is not his fault that as an Int'l player he got rushed to the ML (age 21).
hypobole - Thursday, June 03 2021 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#399269) #
Prospect Live Daily Notes:

Samad Taylor:
"I love Samad! He’s honestly one of my favorite players I’ve watched this season. He’s got a ton of bat speed and despite a smaller build looks to do damage. His bat’s not punchless either."

Otto Lopez:
"There’s not much over the fence power but Lopez can just hit. It’s a profile you have to hope finds some pop long term but it’s fairly unlikely he ever gets to double-digit homers without a swing change."
hypobole - Thursday, June 03 2021 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#399270) #
Eric at FG on the pitcher who had 10 of the 17 Dunedin K's last night. Found the general concepts very interesting, I love having things pointed out that I've never thought about before.

"We’re starting to enter an uncharted evaluation context for young pitchers. Big league fastball usage has been trending down over the last several years but breaker-heavy approaches to pitching haven’t been as pervasive in the minors during prospect development. Especially for pitchers like Florez, who are at best on the starter/reliever line, teams generally make an effort to try to develop fastball command that will give the prospect a chance to start. Per Savant, Florez got 20 swings and misses last night, most of them on his curveball, which he threw a ton. Of his 84 pitches, only 27 were fastballs. He threw about a dozen changeups, while the rest (nearly half his total pitches) were curveballs. I have conflicting thoughts around increased breaking ball usage — how much of the improved results generated by more breakers is coming from what is essentially per-pitch stuff quality, how much is from increased unpredictability as we exit the era of “establishing the fastball,” and is there a point where so many breaking balls are being thrown that the unpredictability piece regresses? — but seeing it on a Low-A arm forces me to view his performance in an unfamiliar context as the Pirates have a 21-year-old lean into what he’s already good at rather than try to improve what he’s not. Now, for Florez specifically, taking this approach at this point in his developmental track makes sense because even though he’s only 21, he’s Rule 5 eligible this offseason and a year from now all he and the Pirates may care about is how he gets outs coming out of a big league bullpen, which will feature him throwing a ton of his breaking ball."

The blurb had a link showing the downward trend of the fastball in the majors. It's dramatic, especially from 2015-2020:,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=
hypobole - Thursday, June 03 2021 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#399271) #
Austin Martin with his 1st career Home Run.
scottt - Thursday, June 03 2021 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#399272) #
That kinda reminds me of Anthony Castro.
Pipeline gave him a 60 fastball and a 55 slider, but fangraphs said that his slider was lacking depth and if the Tigers couldn't fix it was probably a lost cause.
Detroit tried to outright him after he gave a walk and a home run in his only inning,  which let the Jays pick him up.
Now, the Jays encourage him to throw his slider which doesn't look like a  bad pitch.
Opponents are hitting .189 against him.

Really, if Florez is going to be a curveball heavy reliever, his value is pretty limited. That's like a realized 45, no?
What's conflicting about it?

Nigel - Thursday, June 03 2021 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#399273) #
Re: the Daily Prospect notes - as I said the other day, Lopez has an offensive profile that's out of vogue right now. He's going to have to hit his way out of every level.

I was similarly wowed by Taylor when I saw him in Vancouver - plus, he's a throwback, Shannon Stewart -The Early Years, base stealing threat. But the k% issues are real - and until he shows either some improvement in that respect or a bump in power, he isn't a prospect.
hypobole - Thursday, June 03 2021 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#399274) #
That's not at all what he meant about "conflicting".
Nigel - Thursday, June 03 2021 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#399275) #
hypobole, I agree, that is an interesting thought on non FB centric prospects. It touches on something I’ve wondered about recently - with the hyper emphasis on velocity (particularly for high leverage relievers), might the current market inefficiency be in Doug Jones type relievers (ie. relievers with an elite non FB pitch). Tim Collins might be a recentish Jays example.
scottt - Thursday, June 03 2021 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#399276) #
 I have conflicting thoughts around increased breaking ball usage — how much of the improved results generated by more breakers is coming from what is essentially per-pitch stuff quality, how much is from increased unpredictability as we exit the era of “establishing the fastball,” and is there a point where so many breaking balls are being thrown that the unpredictability piece regresses?

He doesn't know how to evaluate a breaking ball being thrown frequently from a breaking ball being thrown only with 2 strikes and he wonders if after seeing so many breaking balls, the hitters might start hitting them even if they are good.

I'm saying it doesn't really matter if the guy throwing those breaking balls profiles as a middle reliever.

Kinda like the starter in the second game in Cleveland with the "best change up in the system" who didn't have a good fastball. Once you get used to the novelty of the super slow change, it's not hard to hit.
greenfrog - Thursday, June 03 2021 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#399278) #
Martin is now hitting .278/.402/.405 after 22 games in AA. Pretty decent. His offensive numbers have been trending up of late. Hopefully the trend will continue (and the K's will come down a bit as well). I can see him having a very strong season from here on out.
hypobole - Thursday, June 03 2021 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#399279) #
Miami's Pablo Lopez is the guy you're thinking of. And yeah, his change is becoming less and less effective as batters expect it. But he's doing well (sub-3 ERA) because as batters sit on the change, he blowing his 93 MPH FB's by them. So his CH is becoming less effective year-over-year, but his FB more effective despite no real increase in velocity.

Anyway this my interpretation of what was said.

First, How much of the effectiveness of breaking balls is because of the quality of the pitches themselves. How much because they're now more and more thrown at any count and pitchers not "establishing the FB". And like you said with the change, will the effectiveness regress when unpredictability wanes as hitters start expecting them more and more.
scottt - Friday, June 04 2021 @ 07:01 AM EDT (#399281) #
Me? No. I was talking about Eli Morgan who made a spot start for Cleveland, although it was last Friday.
He gave up 6 runs in 3 innings. He was throwing lots of super slow changeups. Buck said he had the best change in Cleveland's org. I take his word for that.

Lopez has a 2-seamer type of changeup that he mostly throw outside the strikezone but he also has a fastball with velo and command and 2 other pitches. His only issue is depending on hitters swinging at balls, so it doesn't look like he can ever last 7 innings.

Still, if you know a guy figures to be a middle reliever, I don't think it matters much how you rank his stuff.
That's a pretty low ceiling. It's probably high risk too. What else do you need to know?

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