It's another first place team. Of course it is.
The Rangers' dramatic improvement this season is one of the year's least surprising developments. You could see it coming a mile away. After all, I saw it coming a mile away, as far back as last October, and it can't be much more obvious than that:
Texas went 15-35 in the one-run games, which is almost impossible to do. Bruce Bochy is going to look like a genius when they finish second next year.
This, of course, was karmic payback for the Rangers' equally inexplicable record in the one-run games (36-11) back in 2016. Their good luck that year lifted what was probably little better than a .500 team into the post-season. This past year's equally bizarre set of outcomes dropped what might have been a slightly below .500 team into 94 loss territory.
It was certainly reasonable to expect the inevitable disappearance of their random evil luck, but the Rangers thought other improvements were required. This was wise. They did go 68-94. Improvements were required, and improvements were made. The most celebrated of those improvements involved signing a celebrated but notoriously injury-prone starting pitcher. But the addition of Jacob deGrom has proved pretty insignificant. He's already lost for the rest of the season and much of the next one after making 6 starts and working 30.1 innings. Nevertheless, Texas has gone from being eleventh in the league in preventing runs from being scored to fourth. Obviously, deGrom hasn't had much to do with it. It's the other four starters they've added through free agency - Jon Gray a year ago, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and their own Martin Perez this past winter - who have done most of the heavy lifting. Dane Dunning, bumped from the rotation with all the free agent additions, has returned to the rotation to take over deGrom's spot. He was very effective out of the pen, and his first two starts were quite good as well - his last two not so much.
But none of the money the Rangers have thrown at starting pitchers can explain why they're scoring 6.19 runs per game, far more than any other team in the majors. It certainly helps that Marcus Semien is having a much, much better season than his first year in Texas, and while Nathaniel Lowe hasn't been as nearly as good as he was last year, he's been more than adequate. Robbie Grossman has been getting most of the playing time in left field - Grossman hasn't really been very good at all, but seeing as how last season's left fielders were absolutely awful it's still been an improvement. Josh Jung has settled in at third base, and he's been a large upgrade on Ezequiel Durán and the other jokers who were manning the hot corner last season. (And Duran has been terrific off the bench in 2023.) It's mostly been Jung and two holdovers - shortstop Corey Seager and centre fielder Leody Tavares - that have been the keys to the offensive improvement. Jung is hitting .283/.337/.500 - Texas third basemen hit .222/.277/.333 last season. And Tavares has taken a big step forward. After hitting .226/.280/.344 in his 181 games in the majors, he's batting a sweet .305/.364/.481 this season and one thinks Bruce Bochy may soon be thinking about getting him out of the bottom of the batting order.
Matchups
Fri 16 June - Gausman (5-3, 3.12) vs Perez (6-2, 4.67)
Sat 17 June - Richards (0-0, 3.30) vs Dunning (5-1, 2.76)
Sun 18 June - Bassitt (7-5, 4.02) vs Gray (6-2, 2.32)
The Rangers' dramatic improvement this season is one of the year's least surprising developments. You could see it coming a mile away. After all, I saw it coming a mile away, as far back as last October, and it can't be much more obvious than that:
Texas went 15-35 in the one-run games, which is almost impossible to do. Bruce Bochy is going to look like a genius when they finish second next year.
This, of course, was karmic payback for the Rangers' equally inexplicable record in the one-run games (36-11) back in 2016. Their good luck that year lifted what was probably little better than a .500 team into the post-season. This past year's equally bizarre set of outcomes dropped what might have been a slightly below .500 team into 94 loss territory.
It was certainly reasonable to expect the inevitable disappearance of their random evil luck, but the Rangers thought other improvements were required. This was wise. They did go 68-94. Improvements were required, and improvements were made. The most celebrated of those improvements involved signing a celebrated but notoriously injury-prone starting pitcher. But the addition of Jacob deGrom has proved pretty insignificant. He's already lost for the rest of the season and much of the next one after making 6 starts and working 30.1 innings. Nevertheless, Texas has gone from being eleventh in the league in preventing runs from being scored to fourth. Obviously, deGrom hasn't had much to do with it. It's the other four starters they've added through free agency - Jon Gray a year ago, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and their own Martin Perez this past winter - who have done most of the heavy lifting. Dane Dunning, bumped from the rotation with all the free agent additions, has returned to the rotation to take over deGrom's spot. He was very effective out of the pen, and his first two starts were quite good as well - his last two not so much.
But none of the money the Rangers have thrown at starting pitchers can explain why they're scoring 6.19 runs per game, far more than any other team in the majors. It certainly helps that Marcus Semien is having a much, much better season than his first year in Texas, and while Nathaniel Lowe hasn't been as nearly as good as he was last year, he's been more than adequate. Robbie Grossman has been getting most of the playing time in left field - Grossman hasn't really been very good at all, but seeing as how last season's left fielders were absolutely awful it's still been an improvement. Josh Jung has settled in at third base, and he's been a large upgrade on Ezequiel Durán and the other jokers who were manning the hot corner last season. (And Duran has been terrific off the bench in 2023.) It's mostly been Jung and two holdovers - shortstop Corey Seager and centre fielder Leody Tavares - that have been the keys to the offensive improvement. Jung is hitting .283/.337/.500 - Texas third basemen hit .222/.277/.333 last season. And Tavares has taken a big step forward. After hitting .226/.280/.344 in his 181 games in the majors, he's batting a sweet .305/.364/.481 this season and one thinks Bruce Bochy may soon be thinking about getting him out of the bottom of the batting order.
But mostly - Corey Seager. It's not like he was bad in 2022, his first year in the AL after seven years with the Dodgers. It was certainly a sub-par season by his own standards, but even so - shortstops who hit 33 HRs don't grow on trees. I do think that they might be more common than guys who raise their BAVG, their OBPct, and their Slugging - each of them - by at least 100 points. Which is what he's done this season, going from .245/.317/.455 to .357/.417/.643. And you'll certainly take that from your shortstop. He's put himself in the MVP (non Shohei division) conversation.
The Jays took 4 of 6 from the Rangers last year, talking two of three at home to open the season, and again taking two of three deep in the heart of Texas last September. It was a different time, and a different Texas team.
Matchups
Fri 16 June - Gausman (5-3, 3.12) vs Perez (6-2, 4.67)
Sat 17 June - Richards (0-0, 3.30) vs Dunning (5-1, 2.76)
Sun 18 June - Bassitt (7-5, 4.02) vs Gray (6-2, 2.32)
