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The road trip continues, as the Jays meet Cleveland for the first time this season.


As the trading deadline loomed, the Guardians found themselves just half a game out of first place in the AL Central. They were actually tied with the Twins in the loss column. So what did they do? They traded their best pitcher for a minor league first baseman. It's not like Aaron Civale was going to be a free agent in two months; he's arbitration eligible, but under club control for two more seasons after this one. And that wasn't all the Clevelands did at the deadline. They also sent Amed Rosario, their starting shortstop most of this season, to the Dodgers for the ghost of Noah Syndergaard. They traded DH Josh Bell to the Marlins for infielder Jean Segura - who was instantly given his release - and former first round pick Khalil Watson, a 20 year old who may or may not amount to something some day, albeit not any day soon.

The message GM Mike Chernoff was sending his ball club seems pretty clear, and it's hard to see his players being all that inspired by it.

Nevertheless, despite trading away Civale, despite Triston McKenzie (11-11, 2.96 in 2022) spending almost the entire season on the IL, where he's lately been joined by Shane Bieber (13-8, 2.88 last year), despite the struggles of Cal Quantrill (15-5, 3.38 a year ago), despite closer Emmanuel Clase merely being good rather than utterly unhittable - run prevention has not been Cleveland's problem. Only three teams in the league (Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Toronto) allow fewer opposition runs.

A lot of this could be a park effect, of course. The opposition has hit just .231/.302/.364 at Progressive Field, as opposed to .254/.322/.419 elsewhere, which is why the Cleveland staff has a 3.48 ERA at home and 4.24 on the road. But historically, Progressive Field has been a fairly neutral park, with a rather slight edge to run prevention. And Cleveland's hitters have actually performed a little better at home (.253/.319/.390) than they have on the road (.249/.310/.375). But the Guardians have just two good hitters, one of whom (first baeman Josh Naylor) is on the IL and the other (third baseman Jose Ramirez) faces an imminent suspension for his one punch knockdown of Tim Anderson.

The Guardians had their way with the Blue Jays a year ago. They took three of four games in Cleveland last May, and two of three in Toronto in August. Of course, none of the men who started those games for the Guardians will appear in this series: Bieber, Quantrill, and McKenzie are on the IL while Civale and Pilkington are no longer with the team.

Matchups

Mon 7 Aug - Ryu (0-1, 7.20) vs Williams (1-3, 3.38)
Tue 8 Aug - Kikuchi (9-3, 3.67) vs Bibee (7-2, 3.14)
Wed 9 Aug - Gausman (8-6, 3.20) vs Allen (5-4, 3.65)
Thu 10 Aug - Manoah (3-8, 5.72) vs Syndergaard (1-5, 6.75)

Toronto at Cleveland, August 7-10 | 207 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
John Northey - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#433786) #
Before the game begins I figured I'd post these numbers...
.692 .733 1.154
Any of those 3 would be a fine OPS for a rookie after his first weekend in the bigs, heck for his first season. But that is Schneiders Avg-OBP-Slg resulting in an insane OPS of 1.887 - not even video games will give you that, heck, adult softball rarely does. That is what happens with a 778 BABIP and 462 ISO. wRC+ of 420. Figure we rarely see those numbers so might as well put them down for fun.

ZIPS gives him a 'rest of season' at 234/315/413 728 OPS which is far more realistic imo, even if his OPS would be lower than his current OBP. ZIPs sees him as a 2.1 to 2.4 WAR player going forward - solid but nothing wow. Dang would it be nice if he could become the best late pick since Orlando Hudson (43rd round) 21.1 fWAR, or even just Kevin Pillar (11.1 fWAR 32nd round). Dream is to be in the Jeff Kent area (56.0 fWAR 20th round) who also reached at age 24 and was a big help during the regular season for the first Jays WS winner (first as a player then as a trade chip to get David Cone).
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#433787) #
" Tim Anderson suspended 6 games for fight, Jose Ramirez out 3. "
mathesond - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#433788) #
As expected, both players are appealing, and so the suspensions are on hold.
John Northey - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#433789) #
Weird lineup - Davis Schneider is leading off in LF, Biggio at 2B, Jansen is catching, Varsho in CF, rest the usual. No Merrifield. Guess he needs a day off now and then.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#433790) #
Davis Schneider and José Ramírez are both listed 5' 9" - 190 lbs.
GabrielSyme - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#433791) #
If we are throwing developmental/drafting comps out for Schneder, let's not forget Danny Jansen - another unheralded late-round right-handed high school hitter from outside the hotbeds of baseball talent with decent plate discipline and average power potential. Both had breakout seasons after a couple years of treading water that took them from high-A to AAA.
hypobole - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#433792) #
Clase also suspended 1 game and will serve it today.
greenfrog - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#433793) #
Fangraphs chat today:

2:21
Appa Yip Yip: Over/Under on number of mustaches grown by Blue Jays position players by this time next week at 1.5

2:21
Ben Clemens: Smash the over on this one
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#433794) #
Happy Simcoe Day, folks.
hypobole - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#433795) #
TINSTAAPP  Yankee edition Deivi Garcia
Pre-2021 50 FV #2 Yankee prospect
Pre-2022 45 FV #11 Yankee prospect
Pre-2023 35+ FV #32 Yankee prospect
today - DFA'd
Mike Green - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#433796) #
That was some really lazy fielding by DeJong and VGJ.  Fortunate to have the call overturned.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#433797) #
Pete Alonso strokes a 380 ft. 3-run homer and the Mets take the lead over the Cubs!
John Northey - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#433798) #
SO how have the Jays #2 prospects done seeing how fast Deivi Garcia flopped?

1983-now via BA...
  • TBD: Jordan Groshans (ML likely flop), Austin Martin (tbd, looking floppish), Nate Pearson (ML tbd), Yosver Zulueta (just on this years)
  • Total Flop: Santiago Garcia (flop - 74 games in AAA his peak)
  • ML flop: Matt Williams (barely ML 10 G), Alex Sanchez (ML flop), Eddie Zosky (ML flop), Marty Janzen (ML flop), Deck McGuire (ML flop), Conner Greene (ML flop), Anthony Alford (ML flop)
  • ML decent: John Cerutti (ML), Todd Stottlemyre (ML), Junior Felix (ML), Derek Bell (ML), Alex Gonzalez three times (ML), Gabe Gross (ML), Billy Koch (ML), Dustin McGowan (ML), Travis Snider (ML), JP Arencibia twice (ML), Anthony Gose (ML now reliever)
  • ML AS: Carlos Delgado (ML near HOF), Chris Carpenter (ML AS Cy), Vernon Wells (ML AS), Felipe Lopez twice (ML AS), Jayson Werth (ML AS), Aaron Hill (ML AS), Ricky Romero (ML AS), Brett Cecil (ML AS), Marcus Stroman (ML AS), Aaron Sanchez (ML AS), Roberto Osuna (ML AS scumbag), Bo Bichette twice (ML AS)
  • HOF: Fred McGriff (HOF)
So TBD: 4; Complete flop: 1; Reached but Flop: 7; ML OK career: 11; ML All Star: 12; HOF: 1 so far (Delgado might make it someday). Out of 36 players. Austin Martin and Yosver Zulueta might join Santiago Garcia as the total 100% flops. One could shift Gose to flop, but I'm impressed he made it first as a CF then as a LHP - that just is too rare to not call him a success.
Mike Green - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#433799) #
DeJong jogging out of the box on a ball that could easily have gotten by Calhoun.  Not a fan of his play. 
Nigel - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#433800) #
I’m with you Mike, I’d have given Clement some run first.
hypobole - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#433801) #
Yeah, Mike. Answering the question as to why it only took Svanson to get him.

And this Guardians kid pitching is impressive. What a contrast to the last series.
Nigel - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#433802) #
The offense doesn’t look as good against a major league pitcher:)
greenfrog - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#433803) #
Right knee contusion for Ryu.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#433804) #
Last time I saw a performance that dominant was Roy Halladay. The only thing missing was the complete game.
92-93 - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#433805) #
Cavan! Huge.
Nigel - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#433806) #
Huge hit. Pretty ridiculous how infrequently the manager will use him.
Petey Baseball - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#433807) #
The Jays have a chance to go on quite a run here if they can continue to hit the ball in the seats like they have started doing a lot more of lately.
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#433808) #
So glad about the Ryu news. While watching I was worried he might have blown out a knee. A bruise is way better
Petey Baseball - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#433809) #
I say that because the pitching has been absolutely spectacular, especially since the All Star break.

In recent memory it's hard to highlight Jaysteams that have pitched this well top to bottom. Certainly the '16 team was so consistent...maybe the '07-08 staff with Burnett and Marcum being strong behind 'Doc. It's going to be something when Green and Romano are added in the coming weeks.
Four Seamer - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#433810) #
Chad Green for Yimi Garcia is going to be one hell of an upgrade.
greenfrog - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#433811) #
Whoa Biggio great play!
Nigel - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#433812) #
Wow. Great play Cavan.
Eephus - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#433813) #
What a smart, smart play by Biggio. Great stuff!
Mike Green - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#433814) #
Baseball IQ on display from Biggio.
greenfrog - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#433815) #
And a terrible strike one called on Vladdy. Is it just me, or has there been an inordinate number of horrid ball/strike calls this year?
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#433816) #
Hits with RISP! Add on runs!!
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#433817) #
Greenfrog, I agree this ump has been bad. He hasn’t given anyone the bottom couple inches above the knees, but he’s giving 3 inches on the sides???
greenfrog - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#433818) #
That play by Biggio would have been brilliant anytime, but in a 2-1 game in the eighth with one out and runners on the corners? Incredible.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#433819) #
Pete Alonso goes deep again with a 423 ft. home run.
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#433820) #
Hicks is making this…….interesting
James W - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#433821) #
Thank goodness he didn't miss a call that should've ended the game. Oh wait.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, August 07 2023 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#433822) #
on pace for 91 wins.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#433823) #
Well, a winning night it seems, Jays win, TB wins, Baltimore wins, Houston wins, Texas wins, Seattle wins, Boston wins. Yankees lose again (yay!), Angels losing in the 9th (were winning at the start of the 9th but now losing). Wild race eh?
Waveburner - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 02:03 AM EDT (#433824) #
Well Boston and Texas did indeed win. But Tampa, Baltimore, Houston and Seattle didn't play today.

The Cleveland starter Gavin Williams was super impressive. An arm like his matched with the Guardians pitching development machine is a scary prospect. I could definitely see him competing for the Cy Young in the near future.

I wish Shapiro and Atkins could have brought that pitcher development ability with them to Toronto, but so far not even remotely close.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 02:30 AM EDT (#433825) #
Doh! Price of looking at winning streak instead of the scoreboard. Poor Ohtani and Angel fans - he got 2 more hits but they blew it in the 9th up 3-2 to lose 8-3. Can't imagine how frustrated he must be. His last 15 games he has hit 353/492/706 while the team went 6-9 with 7 straight losses now. Shows how 1 player cannot change fate.
scottt - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 06:27 AM EDT (#433826) #
I was surprised how Hicks was throwing breaking balls instead of the fastball.
The fastball was mostly spiked into the ground near the hitter's feet.
I was waiting for him to elevate one.
Ah, well. It's a win.

Williams was impressive. 97/98 with command. Good breaking balls.
Especially tough on right handed bats. His change up isn't very good.

Ryu is supposed to pitch once more before the next day off.
Today felt like a bullpen day. It's great the pen was rested in Boston.

Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 07:45 AM EDT (#433827) #
Hicks almost seemed too strong.
bpoz - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 08:01 AM EDT (#433828) #
In the Boston thread the topic of extending Atkins was raised. I can't answer because too many of us don't know what his job is.

Nice writeup on the underwhelming Cleveland trade deadline by Magpie. Cincinnati also had an underwhelming trade deadline. The Reds are competing but is Cleveland?
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 08:22 AM EDT (#433829) #
The G.M. has made some great deals, but hiring field-managers is a question mark.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 08:33 AM EDT (#433830) #
The offense doesn’t look as good against a major league pitcher:)

We did face Paxton Friday. Paxton didn't have it Friday, thank goodness. Even really good pitchers sometimes don't. Williams had it last night. He didn't at all look like a guy coming into the season with a 40 command grade or someone walking 4 batters per nine, which he did both in AAA before his promotion and in the majors since. Our saving grace may have been he hasn't been allowed to go beyond 94 pitches/7 innings.
bpoz - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#433831) #
Williams was drafted #23 in 2021. We chose Hoglund #19. Both college pitchers.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#433832) #
The G.M. has made some great deals, but hiring field-managers is a question mark.

Nothing wrong with the Montoyo hire. The 2019 team was awful for the most part. Teams usually hire teachers when there is no expectation of winning and players with little experience. That what Montoyo was. And Atkins gave him some real garbage to work with. Almost surprising they didn't lose 100. The next year they were in the fake playoffs and the year after won 91 games. Now maybe Atkins should have replaced him earlier when the team became good as most other teams have done in similar situations, but that's a different argument altogether.
bpoz - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#433833) #
The 2020, 21 & 22 trade deadline was used to get mainly a lot of immediate pitching help. Only Berrios was a long term acquisition. I cannot blame Montoyo or Schneider for that. 2022 Ryu injured and Berrios/Kikuchi under performing. 2023 Manoah.

The AL East is also a tough division. 2024 could be tougher.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#433834) #
I am not really itching for a discussion of Atkins' merits and demerits. However, I would say that the lackluster performance of young talent (from drafting to talent development) is a bigger issue than manager hires. The farm system has supplied relatively little (until maybe Davis Schneider) either directly or by way of trade value over the last few years.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#433835) #
The ump scorecard - if the ump was a roboump then Ryu wouldn't have been hit as the batter would've been out on a K.
Ducey - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#433836) #
Mike,

Cant agree. We have short memories but the prospects brought in Matt Chapman (Hoglund, Snead, Smith, Logue), Berrios (Martin, Simeon Woods Richardson), Varsho (Lourdes, Moreno),
Richards and Francis (for Tellez), Bass and Pop (Groshans), Merrifield (Taylor, Castillo), Stripling (Noda, Kendall Williams).

I am sure I forgot some. But those are core players - all obtained with prospects.
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#433837) #
Thanks for that score card, Northey. Now check this out:

https://twitter.com/UmpScorecards/status/1688921716695961600

66%!!! It makes Boone’s outburst very understandable.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#433838) #
" I was surprised how Hicks was throwing breaking balls instead of the fastball."

So was I. His fastball was 100 to 102 MPH last night so just throw it in the strike zone or a little higher and make them try to hit it. It worked for Williams for 7 innings and he was throwing 97-98 MPH. Also a shoutout to Danny Jansen for his heroic effort in blocking those pitches by Hicks that were spiked into the ground.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#433840) #
Still agree with Mike in some aspects. Some orgs are known for player development. Dodgers teaching hitters to pull the ball in the air, as well as pitcher development. Yankees adding velocity to college draftees. Cleveland as well. I'm sure there are others I'm missing.  Toronto PD has been known for not being able to teach a breaking ball going back to the AA days. I'm not sure what they are good at, because I've never heard anything in that regard, beyond a comment years ago from Winkowski. Maybe contact hitting, as they seem to have made strides there with some hitters.

If an org is good at something, drafting is easier, because the scouting director can target certain types of players. We've had 3 scouting directors under Atkins and they've all had a few hits, but seemingly  a lot of misses. Not enough attention to EV's with the Warmoth and Groshans picks.  Also been unlucky with Martin, both in that it was a poor year for a high pick and we took a kid who seems to have peaked at age 21 in college..
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#433841) #
I know about the various acquisitions. I'd still describe it as a lacklustre record overall, particularly given the high standards in the AL East.

To be fair, the trading record, given the mediocre talent available, has been pretty good. But they haven't produced and kept significant homegrown talent aside from Bichette and Manoah. It's not bad overall but not very good either.

I am not advocating here just pointing out the importance of these aspects of the GM's job.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#433842) #
I think the drafting and development has been mediocre at best. There have been better and worse stretches on that front in the Atkins years. I think the past 3 years has been particularly lean on the IFA and draft front (that doesn't take into account this year's draft). Those trades are double edged swords - full credit to the front office for moving prospects for major league talent but then take a look at those prospects and ask whether they reflect well on the drafting process itself?
metafour - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#433843) #
I don't quite understand the over-exaggeration on the drafting/development topic. There are more players showing positive development than people seemingly notice. Has anyone caught on that Cade Doughty and Josh Kasevich are rocking ~1.000 and ~.900 OPS since July in Vancouver? Michael Turconi, who was found in the 15th round of the same draft is hitting even better than both of them.

Some of the criticism (eg: "apart from Schneider, they haven't brought up any prospects") don't seem to make much logical sense. The team is competing and their roster-supporting acquisitions have largely panned out (eg: Merrifield, Belt) so why would they be calling up prospects? Where are they going to play? AAA Buffalo has quite a few players who are "ready" for callups, most notably Horwitz who is tearing the cover off the ball, but there isn't really any hole for them to fill.

Even small emergences like Jay Jackson has slowed the path of someone like Bowden Francis who has actually looked pretty good in his appearances so far.

The team has also traded a lot of prospects, and is no longer drafting high. They are also losing more draft picks than they are gaining. Despite that, they still found Tiedemann in the 3rd round (elite talent) and even Nick Frasso (4th round).

A lot of this seems like an exercise wherein if you ignore the positives and focus on the inevitable disappointments which are bound to happen, the picture looks "bad". It's also incredibly easy to romanticize other teams which I find to be very very common. The Yankees literally just DFA'd Deivi Garcia who was a Top 100 prospect just two seasons ago (I think he was their #2 prospect). Am I also supposed to be impressed by their "development" of Jasson Dominguez?

Don't get me wrong, the Jays need to iron some stuff out, but I just don't see the actual empirical evidence to suggest that this is a problem at all. Someone above said that the Jays don't know how to teach a breaking ball - I'm pretty sure that Connor Cooke (who is up to AAA already) leads (or led for most of the season) the entire MiLB in K%. Actually, several of their later-round reliever picks are sporting very high K-rates.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#433844) #
It would be much easier to understand the criticisms if they were done in real time rather than hindsight and if they were fair comparisons. Can any FO always to better? Absolutely. Are there a few front offices in baseball that are over the top unreal in player development or drafting, sure.

I wouldn't call anything relating to player development or drafting as "mediocre." Drafting someone in the top 10 spots of a draft with huge hype and then trading him and getting back a core player then turning around to say "mediocre" development or drafting (3 years or more after the fact) is a bit egregious to me. I'm referring to Berrios and Austin Martin in my example above.

If someone has the time I would be interested to see how this FO has done with player development and drafting compared to other teams using like for like comparisons...Compare like for like picks so a top 5 pick with top 5 pick. If there are not comparable top 5 picks then don't compare. Who cares if Houston or Baltimore drafted better unless you ask yourself what the Blue Jays would have drafted with the same top picks? What's the point of pointing out that the drafting or development has been "mediocre" if the team was competitive during 5 of the last 7 years (as a random example) if you're comparing them to a team that was losing for 5 of those same 7 seasons? I'm interested in the other teams that have been similarly competitive to this FO and with similar draft slots and similar budget... have those teams drafted or developed better than this FO?
dalimon5 - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#433845) #
To add to my post...if the answer is "no" then you can't say this team has been mediocre.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#433846) #
In fairness, I had Hoglund ranked as the seventh best talent available in the 2021 draft and other publications had him in the 14-22 range.

But I also had Gavin Williams ranked 14th while other publications were 19-31. His stuff jumped after the draft but he had a nice delivery, good body and projectable stuff. It was a very, very weak college pitcher class and overall pandemic impacted.

Job for Jays not much easier tonight with Bibee on the mound - similar stuff but with a better changeup - about 15 mph slower than his heater
hypobole - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#433847) #
The breaking ball comment was from Longo and is a few years old. But what does Connor Cooke have to do with it.? Did the Jays teach him a breaking ball? He was drafted  in the 10th round. His FB was 89-91, but he had a terrific curveball.  Jays did not teach him the curve.

Actually the Jays have done maybe better than any team in developing catchers.  They have had a couple of big busts in the IFA market that show not every kid can be developed. But other teams draft prototypes that don't develop either.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#433848) #
I do want to point out that drafting is only one part of the equation. The club's drafting during the Ash/Wilken years was great, but Gord did a poor job of converting that talent into winning ball clubs. Even an average job would likely have given the club some very good years.
Hodgie - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#433849) #
Being competitive as an organization and struggling to draft and develop are not mutually exclusive concepts. This is a good club but it is not heresy to question their player development acumen. The Jays have become competitive largely through free agency and some astute trades where the front office hasn't been nearly as dogmatic with failed prospects as in other areas (cough, cough, Mitch White). Many of those acquisitions were necessitated by a lack of internal options. The homegrown talent with the club that can be attributed to this front office after 8 years is this:
  • Bichette
  • Kirk
  • Manoah
  • Biggio
Babe Schneider's first weekend notwithstanding, that is the extent of the positive contribution from those 8 years of prospects. Hopefully, Martinez and Tiedemann (among others) can start to contribute soon (mid-2024).

As I noted above, the front office should be commended for the trades they have made, but what happens when you run out of highly-rated prospects to trade? I am not sure how sustainable out-trading and out-spending drafting and IFA mistakes are for the organization.

metafour - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#433850) #
The breaking ball comment was from Longo and is a few years old. But what does Connor Cooke have to do with it.? Did the Jays teach him a breaking ball? He was drafted in the 10th round. His FB was 89-91, but he had a terrific curveball. Jays did not teach him the curve.

So every player in the system who has a good/great breaking ball already had it beforehand? My point is that it's such a random "critique" that I'm not even sure how you can quantify/measure it and compare it league-wide. Did Ricky Tiedemann have an elite breaking ball when he was drafted? His Fangraphs draft writeup stated the following: "A 6-foot-4 lefty with decent command of three average or better offerings". Now he apparently has a "mind bending slider".

There are several pitchers currently in the system who are striking out a lot of batters, some of whom are posting better K-rates than they ever did in college. That would seem unlikely to me if there was an organizational problem with breaking ball development. Connor Cooke was a 10.2 K/9 pitcher in his last season of college, and he has a 17.2 K/9 this season to date. I could also point out that Keith Law's writeup on Adam Kloffenstein at the trade deadline noted that he had a below average slider last year, but it was his best pitch this season - so clearly some development occurred.

How about Hagen Danner? He has a 12.9 K/9 this season, and this was a kid who didn't even pitch for several seasons. What, he remembered his elite breaking ball from his HS pitching days? No coaching needed?

Again, it's very easy to be hyper-critical of your own team and romanticize others. Just like whoever it was above who said that the Yankees were "known" for their development of college pitchers. Really? Why does their pitching staff suck then lol (they are currently 24th in pitcher fWAR)? If they're so good at developing pitchers, how did they manage to completely break Deivi Garcia in a mind-blowing 2 seasons?
bpoz - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#433851) #
Good point about our prospects with "good" breaking balls.

Fluharty & TJ Brock have what regarding breaking balls as relievers. How about SPs C Dallas, M Dominguez (HS pick) and D Harrison? Anyone with a good memory would know if they read C'sPlus Baseball interviews. I can't remember much. This could be a strategy.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#433852) #
For development the #1 goal is to get star quality players ala Bo & Vlad. #2 is to get everyday quality guys ala Kirk, Jansen, Biggio (arguable - but 2 years of 2+ WAR out of 5 is something, part time the other 3). Romano, Mayza, Francis all developed in house too along with Manoah.

  • In 2016 the Jays had the 21st pick. The next 10 picks have 0 with 5+ WAR, best is Dane Dunning at 4.3. Can't complain. First round post pick 21 saw only 1 solid guy - Will Smith (#32) with 14.1. Jays wasted pick on TJ Zeuch, negative WAR, sold to the Cardinals for cash, in AAA now.
  • 2017 Jays took Logan Warmoth with pick #22 who never reached. 2 picks later was Tanner Houck (5.2 WAR so far). With pick #28 they took Nate Pearson - the only guy after him in round 1 who did much was Drew Rasmussen (5.8 WAR) but he didn't sign - instead went in the 6th round the next year.
  • 2018: Jordan Groshans pick #12 - the next guy was Connor Scott (never reached) then Logan Gilbert (5.6 WAR), then down to pick #18 for Brady Singer 6.4, and pick #24 for Nico Hoerner (9.8) to get guys who were good.
  • 2019: Alek Manoah #11, now tied for most WAR of round 1 with Adley Rutschman (1st overall) and ahead of #16 Corbin Carroll (5.4). Hard to complain there.
  • 2020: Austin Martin looked like a massive win at the time, sold high to get Berrios - his AAA line right now is an ugly 232/347/329 over 99 PA at 2B/LF/CF and is the same age as Davis Schneider. Too soon to know who was a 'win' and a 'loss' for that draft, but Martin looks like a loss if the Jays hadn't traded him.
  • 2021: Gunnar Hoglund #19 - 3 picks later was Colson Montgomery (top 40 prospect who has been hurt this year but has a 1.066 OPS in 33 games at SS) - could be a yikes as Hoglund is in A ball still with a 7.15 ERA and I suspect will be a flop in the end.
  • 2022: Brandon Barriera #23 overall, shows hope (11.1 K/9 vs 4.0 BB/9 in 20 1/3 IP). #25 was Spencer Jones (a top 100 guy), but obviously far too soon to know one way or the other.
  • 2023: Arjun Nimmala #20 overall - WAAAAAY too soon
So imo they didn't do badly vs what was available around their picks outside of 2021's Hoglund vs Montgomery. Martin was so highly liked at the time that he was critical to getting Berrios. That is something I like - a GM willing to trade his prospects before they die on the vine. If I was a GM I'd probably have trouble with that.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#433853) #
Like I said, the breaking ball comment was a few years old. If Longo saw that, obviously the org did as well, and if they have improved in that regard as you pointed out, it bodes well for the future.

Here is the Yankees quote from FG:

The Yankees continue to be great at developing pitching. Every year, a couple of college pitchers they’ve taken on Day Two or Three of a recent draft take a gargantuan leap forward. There are often arm strength upticks, but more and more frequently now you see fresh sweeper sliders akin to the one the Dodgers taught Blake Treinen and Evan Phillips. Will Warren was the big riser of this variety from 2022. This core competency almost ensures that New York will always have in-house depth to deal with bouts of pitcher injuries at the big league level.
Ducey - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#433854) #
I agree that the Jays should have a better minor league system, but also agree that it has to be a fair comparison.

There are a lot of inequalities built into the system. Teams that are revenue sharing recipients get more international signing room, get competitive balance picks, and get better comp for QO's.

In the 2023 draft the Rays drafted 19 and 31 before the Mets even got to draft.

The extra picks/ compensation allow teams like the O's to have enough money to take runs on players later in the draft that teams like the Jays cant fit under their cap.

So yeah, drool over the O's prospect pool but remember it comes with lots of advantages and a decade of some of the worst teams in history.

At the beginning of the year MLB (Mayo, Callis) had the Jays the 20th best system. The revenue sharing teams ahead of them were Baltimore, Arizona, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Pittsburg, Colorado, Milwaukee, Miami, Minnesota (I think its hard to find this info). Thats 10 teams that have an advantage.

The Dodgers (2), Texas (7), St Louis (9), Washington (10), Mets (11), Cubs(12), Yanks (13), Red Sox (16), SFran (17) were ahead of them. Some were because they drafted high (the Mets picked at 11 and 14 in 2022). Some are probably assisted because players want to be Yankees or Dodgers.

Anyway there are 9 teams that arguably the Jays should beat. But again some have not been trading prospects regularly.

BTW, worst farm system: The Braves.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#433855) #
Hodgie - a bit mean there imo - the 4 listed are 3 all-stars and a guy who had 5 WAR his first 2 years in the bigs (including 2020's weird year which he was on pace for 6 WAR). Romano had 4 years in the system under Atkins before reaching, Mayza 3 years in the minors before sticking. Jansen nearly a full 3 years (maxed at A ball pre-Atkins), Vlad was signed by AA but his entire pro-career was under Atkins. Clearly something was done right. Most drafted/IFA's are still working through the system at this stage. How many make it is hard to say, how good they are vs other options is also tough to say. When I'm bored sometime I'll have to sit down and do a pick by pick for the first 3 rounds for the Jays - who they took vs possible other choices - as a way to see how they did. But IMO you have to factor in things like trades too - did he trade quickly enough to get value from flops ala Austin Martin (676 OPS in AAA at 2B/LF/CF)/SWR (5.62 ERA in AAA with just 7.6 K/9 vs 5.3 BB/9) for Berrios?

Realistically you need 10+ years to fully judge a draft. Teams get 4-5 years before needing to put guys on the 40 man, then 6 years before they are free agents (unless optioned down). So teams have full control for 10+ years thus hard to say for sure who did best before that. I'd say after 5-7 years you get a good idea - so 2016/17 are reasonable to judge (2016 has 10 guys up worth 23.4 WAR vs the Rays 10 worth 16.4 for example).
hypobole - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#433856) #
As Ducey pointed out, gotta compare apples to apples. Jays have gotten 18 players in the top 2 rounds in the 8 years under Atkins. The Rays have had 27 in that same time frame. The Orioles 24, including 2 #1 overalls, a #2 and a #5.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#433857) #
KK on the IL (lacerated elbow). Lukes up.

Shane McLanahan unlikely to pitch again this season per Cash.
scottt - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#433858) #
Bibee was sitting 88-92 mph but showed pitchability.
He got passed over in the short 2020 draft and Cleveland got him in the 5th round in 2021.
After that, the velo jumped magically to an easy 95mph and he cruised through their farm system.

Cleveland "gave up" at the deadline because they have 3 injured starters, but their call ups have more than filled the blanks. In actuality, they were more interested in getting some return on Civale than on trading prospects to improve their lineup. That's part of their sustainability model.

Hodgie - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#433859) #
I am not sure how I was mean John, perhaps glass half-empty? I already gave the FO credit for Manoah and Kirk, although referring to them as all-stars, while technically correct, is charitable given their recent performance. Kirk hasn't played like an all-star in over a year and the less said about Manoah's performance this season the better. Jansen has actually been much better than Kirk in fewer games in the last calendar year, it is a shame that he cannot stay healthy. As for Romano, this FO loved his development so much that they made him available in the Rule 5 draft and were fortunate that he was returned after being selected - nothing wrong with being lucky though.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#433860) #
Yeah, I'm assuming we're talking minor league player development. It was Pete Walker who changed Romano after he was returned.  His arm angle I believe.

Mentioned this before, but Tampa seems to have a Faustian pitcher development, granting pitchers success not for their souls, just their elbows.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#433861) #
Brutal bad luck for the Rays - Springs, Rasmussen and now this news. That's probably their top three starters (although you could make a case its 3 of their top 4).
Paul D - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#433862) #
Point of clarification on Baltimore - they famously faced Toronto in the 2016 playoffs. While they were bad for a while, it wasn't a decade
85bluejay - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#433863) #
Is it brutal bad luck for the Rays or a consequence of their pitching philosophy? The Rays seem to have little regard for the longterm career of their pitchers - use & abuse them, discard them and then next man up - I'm surprised the union hasn't voiced concern.
scottt - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#433864) #
I read that Baltimore suspended their TV play by play guy because he mentioned that the O's have not won a series in Tampa since 2017. 
SK in NJ - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#433865) #
The test for the current FO's drafting/international scouting is going to be in the next few years. The Bo/Vlad window is closer to the end than the beginning, so how they incorporate young players to extend that window beyond 2025 will depend on how the young players currently in the system start developing. You can start to see a glimmer of hope in AAA right now with Schneider already up, and Horowitz, Martinez, and Barger looking like legitimate 2024 options. As far as how they have done in general, the team has called up a highly rated (within the system) prospect every year since 2018 (Jansen/Gurriel in 2018, Vlad/Bichette/Biggio in 2019, Kirk/Pearson in 2020, Manoah in 2021, and Moreno in 2022). Tiedemann almost certainly would have been a 2023 callup if he stayed healthy. I don't know how that compares to other teams, but on the surface it doesn't seem all that bad. Again, let's see what happens in 2024-25. The next wave of prospects should start to filter up soon.

Atkins definitely deserves a lot of credit for his trades and FA signings. If you told me before the season that Vlad and Manoah would collectively be below replacement level, and the team would still be 14 games over .500, I would have been shocked. A big part of that success is that he's been very good at trading and signings.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#433866) #
In fairness to the Rays... Rasmussen was a first round talent in both college and high school but fell due to repeated arm issues and TJ surgery. McClanahan was a fairly babied pitcher in their system but came through the college route, which has little regard for pitchers' long term health (That to me is what needs to change). Springs spent most of his career in another org... But he also had a massive IP jump between 2021 and 2022
Nigel - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#433867) #
This is a serious question: is there an industry belief that the Rays abuse their pitchers? The smattering of commentary that I have picked up from time to time on Fangraphs suggests that group is of the belief that, if anything, they tend to baby their pitchers (which may then lead to the innings jump that Marc referred to).
John Northey - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#433868) #
With the Rays I think the unions #1 concern is how they penny pinch more than Scrooge McDuck. Their opening day payroll for the 25/26 men has never reached even $90 mil. For Luxury Tax purposes last year and this are both over $100 mil ($125 actually) but that is more due to accounting shifts and mandatory league spending (for the under 3 year players, etc.). Oops, they also cracked $100 mil barely for the LT in 2017. The Jays for comparison, from 2012 on (all that Cot's has) has been over $100 mil every year peaking at $250 this year. Basically the Rays are very cheap and not hiding it.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#433869) #
I realize that the lineup is thinner tonight with Chapman sitting but I still don't understand moving Varsho back up again.
92-93 - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#433870) #
I know which lefty I would have rather had up with the bases loaded.

Amazingly clutch start from Kikuchi that helps reset the bullpen with no break till Monday.
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#433871) #
Embarrassing performance by the offence.
What a tough loss for Kikuchi. 7 IP, 3H, 1 run. L.
92-93 - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#433872) #
It sucks that the Jays lost because of a guy they could’ve had for slightly more than nothing.
electric carrot - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#433873) #
The consolation is that we have probably the best bunting cleanup hitter in the league.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#433874) #
Some variant of that game has been played frequently from May 1 on. Just no ability to manufacture a sequence offence.

Kikutchi was fantastic.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#433875) #
I don’t know what was expected when they had all of Espinal, DeJong, and Biggio in the lineup, along with Varsho batting way too high. The Jays seem to prefer having replacement level bench players and prospects getting everyday AB’s in the minors but I wish they took a page out of the Orioles playbook and just called up their best guys and adjusted playing time accordingly. If they are at a point where giving Chapman a breather for one game is going to cause that big of a dent to the lineup then they need to improve the bench. Horowitz and Barger off the bench instead of the “5th OF of the week” and one of Espinal/DeJong would be a good start. Just cycle the playing time around giving players breathers every week. Easier said than done obviously but it’s not the offense is firing on all cylinders as is.
92-93 - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#433876) #
Seeing a lot of the above on Twitter, but there was absolutely nothing wrong with giving Chapman a rest in the middle of a 17 game stretch without an off day against a team they aren't competing with for a playoff spot.
scottt - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#433877) #
The problem is that they wait for the extra base hit that seldom happens.
Kinda needed Merrifield to steal or run when Belt had a full count.
Not sure why that didn't happen.

In the 9th, do you dare pinch hit Kirk for Jansen to move the runner up?

Gerry - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#433878) #
Chad Green was scheduled to pitch two innings tonight. Unfortunately, in his first inning, he was hit in the head by a ball thrown by the catcher on a steal attempt. He left the game after that.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#433879) #
The staff ace for game 1 of the playoffs.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#433880) #
It must be hard for Clement to watch De Jong “hit”.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#433881) #
The flaw was Springer and Varsho back-to-back in the heart of the lineup but with so many weak bats in the lineup I guess there's only so much you can do.
John Northey - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#433882) #
So DeJong 0-3, Espinal 0-2 HBP, Biggio 0-4 and Jansen 0-4 when that is the bottom 4 it is hard to win (0-13 with a HBP).

However... luck was against the Jays again - Vlad hits one down the line and somehow Ramirez gets to it and keeps it from going into the corner - it gets by him and 1 or 2 runs score and it is a whole different ballgame - story of Vlad's season.
The_Game - Tuesday, August 08 2023 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#433883) #
The problem would be benching your hottest hitter at the same time as Chapman 4 games into his MLB career for reasons that are unclear to anyone.

When you put out an unserious lineup, these are the results this team deserves.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 12:06 AM EDT (#433884) #
FYI: ESPN posted that Chapman is the #2 free agent this winter (behind Ohtani of course) and expects him to sign for $80-$150 million. Cody Bellinger is the only other position player in the top 10 - it looks like a bleak winter for teams not looking for pitching.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 12:11 AM EDT (#433885) #
I don't get letting Espinal anywhere near the lineup when there isn't an injury or two. Hopefully they put a more competitive lineup out there tomorrow.
Michael - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 02:00 AM EDT (#433886) #
On the developing of drafted players it doesn't really matter if you draft a player and develop them yourselves, or draft a player and trade them for a prospect someone else drafted and develop the prospect, or draft a player and trade them for major league talent (especially underpaid major league talent either because they are still controllable or because they are on an underpaid contract). The point is you want to turn draft picks into major league talent, especially surplus major league talent above what you are paying for it, and it doesn't matter how you go about that alchemy.

So yeah it would be great to be the top team in baseball in developing young players (position and pitching), but trading for value, especially when you "sell high" is a very viable strategy. It can be risky for the GM since people don't tend to remember the dozens of players you traded away that never amounted to much, but the one or two that became better than expected after you traded them will always be brought up. You can also get false narratives (like AA "selling the farm") when people don't properly evaluate the prospects (both kept and traded), especially because there is often an endowment effect even for the fans where our mediocre prospects are super valuable and anyone else's are barely worth a bucket of balls.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 02:15 AM EDT (#433887) #
Northey, Ramírez got to it because it only came off the bat at 76mph. Vlad didn’t exactly sting it
Jonny German - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 05:10 AM EDT (#433888) #
It must be hard for Clement to watch De Jong “hit”.

The guy with the career OPS+ of 55?

scottt - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 06:30 AM EDT (#433889) #
The problem with AA is that he traded all the high level pitching prospects for a rental.
It's almost impossible for a team to go far if they don't have pitching in the minors they can call up.
The closest Atkins did is trade Kloff and Robberse but these guys are still a year away at best and the Jays have other options; 6 starters currently plus Francis and still 5 starters ready for next year with Tiedemann hopefully getting closer.
Atkins usually trades from the lower minors and gets guys with years of control.

The real false narrative is the extension talks on guys who are 2 months away from free agency.

Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#433898) #
L-C thinks Ross Atkins deserves a new contract, especially if the club is able to win 90+ games 3 years in a row.
85bluejay - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#433899) #
The Jays inability to "manufacture" runs is concerning as you generally face superior pitching in the playoffs and need to be able to "manufacture" runs.
krose - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#433906) #
Fun to think about roster construction for the end of this season and next. There are a couple of things that stand out in my mind. The first is the value Merrifield has contributed. His flexible positional ability (can’t believe I said that), hitting contribution, and maturity in the dugout are worth a lot. Perhaps more than Chapman and his great defense and occasional pop. Chapman would likely be harder to replace.

The second roster idea that has rolled around in my head for a while is what to do about Vladdy. Is it possible that he is blocking Horowitz and Horowitz could be providing more value. Perhaps Vladdy’s greatest contribution would be in an off season trade??
92-93 - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#433908) #
Springer, Belt, and Biggio had better games than Schneider on Monday so they were hotter. Playing Merrifield worked out pretty well last night.

You might be a little too excited about 3 games from an unheralded prospect if you think he was "benched" after playing 4 straight.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#433912) #
I think the biggest problem with the line-up last night is that you're replacing a .321 hitter in Bichette batting second with a ninth place hitter, DeJong, who has provided nothing offensively since coming here.
85bluejay - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#433914) #
I wanted the Jays to listen on Vladdy after his 2nd place MVP showing - I wouldn't sell now as his value is low - maybe if he has a big 2024, else ride him out to FA.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#433915) #
New Mariners closer Andres Munoz looked incredible closing out the win against the Padres last night. He gave up a leadoff blooper to Kim after getting ahead 0-2, and then dispatched Tatis Jr., Soto, and Machado pretty easily.

Seattle only has one more loss than the Jays, and has a significant advantage in the tiebreaker (division record).
85bluejay - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#433916) #
Seattle also has the edge in remaining strength of schedule and I think have an excellent shot at a WC spot - The Jays are in tough - The 6 games remaining against the Rays may decide which team makes the playoffs.
Joe - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#433919) #
you generally face superior pitching in the playoffs and need to be able to "manufacture" runs
You need to be able to score in the playoffs, of course, but I understand the phrase "manufacturing runs" as playing small ball, and it's been shown that home runs are the key to winning in the playoffs.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#433921) #
What would be nice is getting an early lead. Traditionally, the 1st inning is usually the highest scoring inning. Jays are dreadful scoring in the 1st. Atlanta is best at 1.0 per game in the 1st. We're tied with the Pirates, Tigers and White Sox at 0.42. Only Miami and the Mets have scored fewer.
The_Game - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#433929) #
Schneider had a 1.265 OPS in July in AAA and was 9 for his first 17 in his major league career (and nobody on the team could touch Williams in game 1).

Yes, he was their hottest hitter going into last night's game. And no, benching him for one of Espinal/Biggio when you are also giving Chapman a day off (and Bichette is also hurt) makes no real sense at all.
electric carrot - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#433930) #
The chance that the Blue Jays trade Vladdy before next year is pretty darn close to 0. I bet anyone a million cuttle fish that Vladdy is on the team next year.
Nigel - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#433931) #
Joe - I agree with the notion that HRs are better at any time, not just the playoffs. But the Jays intentionally made moves in the off season to improve the team's defence and run prevention. The cost was primarily in HRs and, if there was to be any positive offset offensively, it was to be in line up balance and base running with some potential for added long sequence offence. If this line-up can't more consistently manufacture runs then the offence is in trouble because its short a bopper (or two).
92-93 - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#433932) #
Varsho back to #9 after batting 5th yesterday. Makes a lot of sense.
Chuck - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#433933) #
He typically bats 9th against LHP.
Gerry - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#433934) #
Chad Green has entered MLB's concussion protocol. That means he cannot pitch for at least seven days. He was hit in the head by a throw from the catcher yesterday.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#433943) #
Nigel, I don’t think they thought they were getting this much of a drop off though. That’s the issue. They definitely wanted better run prevention, but I think entering the season we all would have expected Varsho to hit more homers than Gurriel had provided in ‘22, and the feeling was also that Springer would have a healthier season (and therefore be more productive) if he was moved to a corner.

Springer, Varsho, and Guerrero especially have hit way fewer home runs than could have been reasonably expected. I see the fault in the performance of the players, not in roster construction
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#433944) #
Vladdy had a poor AB in the first inning after Springer’s great AB and home run. Allen had thrown a lot of pitches and Vladdy (and Chapman) let him off the hook by aggressively hacking at balls and borderline pitches. VGJ has not looked good at the plate lately.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#433945) #
Ump has a low strike zone.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#433946) #
"Springer, Belt and Biggio"

I of course read this as Stringer Bell and Biggio. Careful who you run with, Cavan.

Speaking of getting old, Robbie Robertson's death reminds those of us d'un certain age of his music and people we have lost who we shared it with. Turn it up, Robbie.
Chuck - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#433947) #
And the Sugar Man died today. Interesting story for those unaware.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#433948) #
Gorgeous throw by Kirk. A CS to help protect a 1-0 lead has significant value, especially with the offense relatively cold and Bichette and Kiermaier unavailable.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#433949) #
The Jays have four players in the AL top ten for GIDP:

Springer
Kirk
VGJ
Bichette

VGJ added another to his total tonight (with a RISP, naturally).
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#433950) #
Kevin Gausman, Bellissimo.
Eephus - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#433951) #
Man. I wish Varsho’s bat had anything resembling life because he is truly some kind of defender out there in the outfield.
Chuck - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#433952) #
Oscar Gonzalez, stupidissimo.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#433953) #
Robbie Robertson appears in " Carny " (1980) starring Gary Busey and Jodie Foster.  (A disturbing movie.)
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#433954) #
Nice opportunity for Davis here.
Eephus - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#433955) #
This teams allergy to success with runners in scoring position might indeed be contagious. Great play by the Guardians shortstop regardless.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#433956) #
Varsho is pressing. Swining at pitches out of the zone is not his game. He's a better hitter than he has shown this season.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#433957) #
Kikuchi successfully overhauled his game last off-season. Maybe Varsho can do the same this off-season, perhaps with a different hitting coach.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#433958) #
No offence to pigs or Varsho was intended. *swinging
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#433959) #
Well, he has been in a trough for much of this season.
Eephus - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#433960) #
I likewise agree this version of Varsho is a charade you are of his true talent (somebody please get my joke).
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#433961) #
Chad Green, poor fellow.

Matinée tomorrow.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#433962) #
Jays 4 back of the Rays. The Jays could well catch them.
Chuck - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#433963) #
this version of Varsho is a charade you are

Eephus, you're nearly a laugh but you're really a cry.

greenfrog - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#433964) #
The run prevention was excellent tonight (clearly). Two great catches by Merrifield. Solid D by Varsho. Great charging play by Chapman on a slow grounder. The game-calling and caught stealing by Kirk. And of course the pitching by Gausman, Mayza and Hicks.
mathesond - Wednesday, August 09 2023 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#433965) #
Animals, the lot of you.
Michael - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 04:13 AM EDT (#433974) #
Guerrero crushed the ball a couple of times tonight and while he isn't hitting as well as we liked, he's still #3 among qualified Jays hitters in OPS this year (behind only Bichette and Chapman).

And while he's 60 points below his career ops, really in his 5 years (counting this one) in 4 of them he's been between 772 and 818, and 3 of them he's been between 772 and 791, so his current 786 isn't that far out of the realm of his reasonable baseline. It is really just the one season with the 1.002 OPS that doesn't match the rest so far by a lot (technically the 818 last year is slightly further from the other 3 780ish years because league wide offense was also down around 25 points of OPS that year so it is sort of 50 points better than current level when compared to league wide - 25 raw points and 25 league level lower).

But Vlad is still just 24. Barry Bonds career numbers in OPS was a little below Vlad's at this age before going crazy (and some of that going crazy is before the generally assumed steroid point). Bautista had 75 games across two seasons with a 502 OPS in 64 games and then a 404 OPS in 11 games through his age 24 season. Vlad senior was better than Junior at this point (although for only 3 good seasons instead of 5), but his true peak was 25-28, although he was close on both sides. Similarly Trout was better than Vlad through this point, but at his best were ages 25-29. So even if Vlad's true talent through 24 is closer to an OPS of 800 than the 848 career number he has right now, you'd still expect him to be ~100 or so higher than current in the expected peak 25-29 years if he follows an aging curve similar to his father or Trout, 200+ better if he follows Bonds's aging step up. Bonds kept that 200+ better for many years with a further additional extra 200+ step up over that crazy baseline after the likely start of steroids for the every so common 36-39 year old peak stats with 4 consecutive years where the *worst* year had an OPS+ of 231 and OPS of 1.278 - I.e., basically better than what Davis Schneider has done for 5 games Bonds did for more than 4 years: 1.368 OPS across the 4 years combined compared to "only" 1.354 for Davis Schnider right now. Imagining anyone can become like Bonds is very unlikely, but even a normalish aging curve would likely have Vlad be in the 900-950 OPS for many of the next 4 years even with the 786 current OPS, so I wouldn't be so quick to try to cast that aside.
bpoz - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 07:27 AM EDT (#433975) #
Over a 3-5 year or less period players have different quality seasons. The "career" or bad year throws off the players avg. This is what I believe. If I am right then inconsistency is quite normal. I looked at Teo, Gurriel, Stripling and S Manaea as hopefully fair examples. I did not mean to cherry pick.

They say speed & D don't take a vacation. Varsho & KK are doing that. Springer had his best days in Houston but we needed his potential greatness. His age will diminish his performance and health.

I liked that he Jays lineup had strong O 1-9 in the past. Teo & Gurriel helped with that. So now you can wear down the pitcher because they are all tough ABs. Our lineup has changed this year.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 07:37 AM EDT (#433976) #
Michael,

Why are you using Barry Bonds, Jose Bautista and Mike Trout as comparable for Guerrero Jr? You could easily choose three other comparable players at this point in their career who are nowhere near as good as those three were and became.

This is my beef with the Vladdy Saga. Too many times he is looked at as an elite player with hall of fame upside. I've resigned myself to looking at him more like a Justin Upton and then I find myself being happy with his production.
mathesond - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#433978) #
"I've resigned myself to looking at him more like a Justin Upton and then I find myself being happy with his production."

Sounds like the soft bigotry of low expectations, as Dubya might have put it.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#433979) #
W. quit drinking in 1986 and serves as a role model for L-C.
hypobole - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#433982) #
Thank you George Springer for reading my post yesterday and hitting that 1st inning HR. In appreciation, I will inform Da Box that you are now better than league average both by wRC+ and OPS+. Onward and upward, George! Sorry for the lack of stickers on this post.

Bold prediction - the Jays will score more runs today than they scored the last 2 games combined.

Wondering if anyone will get my stickers reference.


greenfrog - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#433983) #
I’m hoping that in a couple of weeks the Jays will have Bichette, Kiermaier, Romano, Richards, Ryu, and Green back in the fold. That will be a significant influx of talent (talent reflux?) for the team.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#433984) #
I must admit I’m getting really worried about Seattle. Everything is coming together for them. Big series on the weekend vs. Baltimore for them
greenfrog - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#433986) #
If the Jays can pass Tampa, they won’t have to worry about Seattle.
92-93 - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#433987) #
We aint front office sheep in here, even if the room is filled with riff raff.

Lukes is in CF today, marking the first time both Varsho and Kiermaier are out of action.
vw_fan17 - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#433990) #
Using guys like Bautista or Bonds just screams of cherry-picking a few guys who really took off late and became (even more) elite. Barry Bonds? The guy who had 500+ SB including a 50+ SB season, when Vladdy's best is 8?

Maybe start with someone from his "Most similar hitters through age 23" list? I mean, Jose Canseco (#2) is no slouch. Same for Eddie Murray, Freddie Freeman, Juan Gonzalez, Justin Upton, Cody Bellinger, Giancarlo Stanton, Boog Powell, Ruben Sierra. I don't know the story behind #1 - Tony Conigliaro (a few years before my time), he seems to have suffered a major injury and never been the same?

However, IMHO, the other problem is the elephant in the room. IMHO, we need to look at guys like Cecil/Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard. Somewhat larger sluggers. Arguably, they were all done (having really good seasons) by age 31. Miguel Cabrera is listed at 6'4" 267. That's probably comparable to Vladdy's 6'2" 245. He hung on until about 35 with "good" seasons - but he was also significantly ahead of Vlad at this age IMHO, just looking at the stats.

I'm not trying to shame Vladdy for his weight (I also need to lose some lbs) - but as an athlete, your body is part of your package. Guys like Stanton or Judge would kill to have bodies slightly more resistant to injury. I don't see why Jose Bautista is brought up as a comparable - his diet and workout regimen were constantly talked about. And even he was essentially done at 36 (OPS+ of 79), although he rebounded for an OPS+ of 102 at age 37. All I'm saying is - unless he has a DRASTIC change of lifestyle, ain't no way Vladdy is breaking batting records at age 36-40. And I can't see signing him to a 10-year deal once he's a free agent.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#433991) #
I was reading that Don Mattingly called for the pickoff at second of Oscar Gonzales last night. Pete Walker visited the mound and told Gausman they were trying it and the rest is history.
hypobole - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#433993) #
For anyone who likes humour, this was the sticker reference. Dee is going to run on the field and kiss one of the Phillies, but who?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6cEOk7x4HA
Ducey - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#433994) #
I dont think Vlad's issue is his weight. Its his discipline and pitch selection. He is very athletic, won the HR derby (which requires a lot of exertion), runs well and does the splits. I have concerns of what he might be like when he is 31, but that is a ways away.

They need to bring in a new hitting coach for next season. Most of the team swings at pitches they shouldn't. Bo gets away with it because he is a freak and can hit anything, but most of the rest are all having disappointing seasons:

OPS+ 2023/ 2022
Kirk 97, 127
Vlad 117, 133
Whit 113, 119
Varsho 77, 109
George 101, 132
Danny 103, 142
Espinal 69, 99
Biggio 86, 93

That is a damning report card for the hitting coach.

*Chapman is 123, 116 but coming back to last years levels
KK and BB are up but were busted last year so there is not much of a baseline to measure from.

electric carrot - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#433995) #
Re: Vlad:
"I've resigned myself to looking at him more like a Justin Upton and then I find myself being happy with his production."

My recommendation is to keep your expectations high -- but expand your timeline a little.
Magpie - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#433997) #
Tony Conigliaro (a few years before my time), he seems to have suffered a major injury and never been the same?

This was a famous story, to an older generation!

Conigliaro led the AL in homers in 1965, when he was 20 years old. Two years later, in August 1967, he was hit in the face by a Jack Hamilton fastball. There was concern that he would lose the vision in his left eye entirely and he missed the entire 1968 season. He made it back in 1969, but his vision had been permanently damaged and was continuing to deteriorate.
hypobole - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#433998) #
One more, we'll be the 2nd team to 100.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#433999) #
Can anyone explain to me how Ramírez has not yet had a hearing to sort out his suspension from 3 days ago?

He played the entire Jays series when he should have missed 3 of the games. Now instead, he’ll miss time against Tampa?

It makes no sense, and younger me would have screamed “conspiracy against the Jays”!
92-93 - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#434000) #
It's ridiculous that in the Zoom era it takes this long to hold a hearing for such a minor suspension.
ae_scott - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#434001) #
Manoah still doesn't look right to me.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#434002) #
Umpires conspire against Toronto.
92-93 - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#434003) #
He belongs in the minors if Ryu is healthy, especially with the next Monday-Thursday-Monday as days off. Bring up a reliever.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#434004) #
I don’t know about that. The stuff looks good, he just wasn’t locating well early
92-93 - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#434005) #
It was more of a comment about the roster construction. With 3 off days in 8 days a 6-man rotation is silly.

But Manoah has not looked good against a bad Indians lineup.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#434006) #
It seems the Jays are having to “give credit” to the opposing starting pitcher on a daily basis. No matter how high his ERA is entering the game, the pitcher in question seems to be remarkably effective against the Jays.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#434007) #
He’s given up three hits, and two other hard hit balls that went right at Schneider.

To me it’s all about the offence’s ineptitude today. Getting rolled by a pitcher who walked into the game with 6.91 era coming into the game (7.16 over his last 15) is pathetic. This should have been a very easy win
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#434008) #
The bats go silenzio.
christaylor - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#434010) #
This season is up there with 2013 or 2004 in how frustrating it is to watch.

The FA bats other than the obvious one don't inspire confidence or would be status quo. It'd be nice to see a straight up baseball challenge trade in the off-season.
92-93 - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#434011) #
Biggio should be hitting here. Do a job Lukes.
92-93 - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#434012) #
Ugh. How do you let your 26th man hit with the bases loaded down 4-1?
greenfrog - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#434013) #
Would have liked to see hot-hitting Horwitz pinch-hitting in that situation instead of Lukes.
Four Seamer - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#434014) #
Someone should wake up (John) Schneider up from his pre-game nap.
92-93 - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#434015) #
Wait, Kirk was coming into the game anyway for Jansen? That's a horrendous decision letting Lukes hit there.
James W - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#434017) #
I know I intended to spend my time today watching awful umpires blow the game, rather than watching the players decide things.

Bring on the robot overlords.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#434018) #
Decisive moment in the game here with Kirk up.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#434019) #
Back to back games where they loaded the bases and scored zero runs. The median outcome in that situation is two runs.
Magpie - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#434020) #
Kirk was coming into the game anyway for Jansen? That's a horrendous decision letting Lukes hit there.

Nah, Kirk was already in the game. He replaced Jansen in the field to start the bottom of the sixth.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#434021) #
My God, this team is frustrating.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#434022) #
Magpie, Jansen stayed on to run after being hit. 92-93 is saying they should have done a double switch in that situation so that Kirk could have hit for Lukes. His point was that if you’re going to bring him into the game anyway, you should try to use your best pinch hitter in that crucial situation
greenfrog - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#434023) #
In Springer’s defense, the pitch that was called strike three looked low. And the umpiring this series (and this year) has been maddening.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#434024) #
It was too close to take. He swung at an inside pitch that was on the chalk, so that take from strike 3 was weird IMV.
According the GameDay view in the MLB app, the pitch caught the bottom of the zone
greenfrog - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#434025) #
Too close to take, yes. But that doesn’t mean it was a strike. If in fact it caught the zone, it was by millimetres.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#434026) #
The Jays are now tied with Seattle in the loss column
greenfrog - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#434027) #
Failure to execute with RISP is obviously a key part of the narrative of the Jays 2023 season. Abysmal performance in those situations.
Magpie - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#434028) #
92-93 is saying they should have done a double switch in that situation so that Kirk could have hit for Lukes. His point was that if you’re going to bring him into the game anyway, you should try to use your best pinch hitter in that crucial situation

So what - Varsho runs for Jansen so Kirk can hit for Lukes? Or make the double switch in the bottom of the inning, whatever.

I dunno. Hard to see what difference it would make. Three innings left to play, both guys were certainly going to bat, and as it happened it was Kirk who got to hit in the truly crucial situation.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#434029) #
Today, it wasn't exactly RISP that was the inefficiency issue. The club went 5-13 in those situations. With 10 hits including 3 doubled, 3 walks and an HBP, they ought to have scored more than 3 runs. What did it today was an untimely double play, in the middle of some hits, a couple of infield hits with a runner on second and the inability to score a runner from 3rd with less than two outs.

If you aren't going to hit home runs, it really helps if you take care of the little things.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#434030) #
The lack of power is a huge problem. You’re absolutely right.

Even George’s homer yesterday was pretty lucky - only 96 mph EV.
Waveburner - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#434031) #
The offense sputters again even against the terrible Syndergaard. Only 1.5 games up on red hot Seattle for the final wild card spot.

Manoah surrenders 4 runs and 3 walks in 4 innings. Is a 6 man rotation actually a benefit? How many more starts does Manoah deserve?
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#434032) #
So what - Varsho runs for Jansen so Kirk can hit for Lukes? Or make the double switch in the bottom of the inning, whatever. I dunno. Hard to see what difference it would make. Three innings left to play, both guys were certainly going to bat, and as it happened it was Kirk who got to hit in the truly crucial situation. I’m confused by this response, and feel that maybe we’re talking about different things? In the bottom of the 6th the bases were loaded for Lukes after the Schneider walk. Subbing Kirk would have made a massive difference, since he’s a substantially better hitter than Lukes. 92-93 was upset because they blew an opportunity to upgrade from the 26th man to one of their better contact hitters. The fact that Kirk later came up in a crucial situation isn’t relevant to the assessment of the previous decision. There was no way to know that Kirk would get a bases loaded situation at the time the previous decision was made. It was fortunate, but not an example of well executed strategy.
Magpie - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#434033) #
I’m confused by this response, and feel that maybe we’re talking about different things?

Nah, that was me. I'd forgotten about the first time the spot came up.
John Northey - Thursday, August 10 2023 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#434035) #
This team has to be one of the most frustrating good teams in Jays history, well, outside of the final week of '87 of course.

Look at hard hit rates, look at DP's hit into, look at pretty much anything and these Jays should be leading easily right now rather than struggling to hold the last wild card slot. Solution? Often in the past you'd fire the manager but that really isn't the trick imo and rarely works (well unless you bring in Cito). The biggest thing this team needs is a bit of luck. Having some pop ups fall in, hard line drives miss some gloves, getting hits when needed instead of with 2 out and no one on. There is no magic formula, no 'just do this and it'll work'. Springer has an 889 OPS in the playoffs so we know he can play under pressure but dang if it doesn't look horrid lately. Lifetime 828 OPS RISP, this year 556. Just to bring up one player who is driving us nuts - can't blame the hitting coach, Springer by now knows all there is to know on that front.
greenfrog - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 08:11 AM EDT (#434036) #
I’m not sure yesterday’s 5/13 is much of an endorsement of the team’s performance with RISP. Those five hits included an infield single, and the Jays were hitless in the most important RISP situations (with the bases loaded) — Lukes groundout, Kirk popout, Schneider strikeout. The Kirk PA with one out was probably the most important one of the game.
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#434038) #
The 2023 club compares with the later J.P. Ricciardi-era, as a team in its competitive window and under-achieving to some degree. (And just 1 wildcard back then.)
hypobole - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#434039) #
There have been studies that show "clutch" is pretty random. Players don't consistently become better in clutch situations. But "unclutch" studies I've never seen. And I think that's a real thing. That's why some pitchers are good, but getting the final few outs in a game they seem to fall apart. And intuitively that makes sense. If you have a certain talent level, it's far easier to do worse than better. Overthinking, nerves, negative thoughts, whatever. That's basic human psychology. And maybe beyond randomness, in a lot of situations, players that seem clutch are really those that are maintaining their talent level better than their opponent.
jz6pwc - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#434041) #
Perfectly stated @hypobole.
99BlueJaysWay - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#434043) #
I’m not sure about clutch or unclutch. To me, it looks like the league has identified some weaknesses in a few guys and no one on the team has been able to adjust. Springer with sliders low and away, Vladdy with fastballs, Varsho with high fastballs. Etc
hypobole - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#434044) #
They're not mutually exclusive. Pitchers are trying to get our batters out no matter the situation.
hypobole - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#434045) #
BA League average/Jays

Bases empty .241/.245
Men on .257/.235
Scoring position .255/.225
scottt - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#434048) #
Pitchers are not necessary the same with runners on base and pitching from the stretch.
Also, having runners on base alters the defense.
Holding the runner opens a gap in right but sets up the double play.
Against some hitters, you can induce a fly ball, but maybe not against power hitters.
Playing to pull is counter productive if the pitcher isn't throwing inside.
Some defenders have a pitchcom receiver because of that, among other things.
The Jays hitters are clearly not trying to cash the runners on bases.
It would seem that the philosophy they have chosen does not work with the hitters they have.

The Jays have gone 6-4 in the last 10. The failure to score runs in Cleveland  hurts, but it's not crippling.
Of the teams chasing the Blue Jays, only Seattle has done better with a 9-1 record.
The Mariners will play Baltimore/KC/Houston next, which might cool them off.

Tampa has gone 6-4. Houston 7-3.

Leaside Cowboy - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#434053) #
If the Phillies can win the pennant, Toronto can make a deep playoff run. Fans of other teams fear the Blue Jays.
christaylor - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#434059) #
Your comment reminded me of an old (2009) study from The Book that found evidence for both clutch and un-clutch players, but the effect was small.

An old blog post about the chapter in The Book is here:

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/clutch_skill_does_exist/

We're all likely biased, but it is striking the number of times we've seen pitchers exploit the weaknesses in certain Jays hitters in high-leverage situations.
greenfrog - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#434061) #
How many times have we seen Varsho strike out on a high FB? The high FB up and away seems to be a particular good pitch to use against him. Also tailing pitches (such as a changeup) low and away.
92-93 - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#434065) #
The radio broadcast was convinced that the Indians found the hole in Schneider's swing = also fastballs up.
John Northey - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#434066) #
Manoah back to AAA Hagen Danner up. Sigh. Poor Manoah, from ace to the minors twice.
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