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Well, some players are signing but not many. Yamamoto is officially on the market now which should help push things a bit.

The last big free agent is now officially available. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, he of the lifetime 1.72 ERA in Japan is now able to be signed as he enters into his age 25 season. Yikes. If a 10 year deal for a pitcher ever makes sense, this is the guy - 3 straight years of 170+ IP, ERA's those 3 years of 1.39-1.68-1.16. That is scary good. Bids start at 9 years/$200 mil.

Signed is Nola for 7/$172 mil (Phillies resign), and also Reynaldo Lopez (Atlanta for 3/$30 mil), Lance Lynn to St Louis $10 mil 2024, $1 mil buyout for 2025 option ($11 mil). Lots of minor trades too. Sadly nothing involving the Jays yet. But regardless, we need a new thread as the old one is over 200 comments and getting to be a bit much.

Key dates of Jays transactions in the past...
  • 2022/23 offseason: Bassitt & Keirmaier signed in mid December, Teoscar traded Nov 16th, traded for Varsho Dec 23rd, Belt signed Jan 10th, Green Jan 30th.
  • 2021/22 offseason: Gausman & Garcia December 1st, Kikuchi March 14th (lockout screwed the time table up that winter), traded for Chapman March 16th,
  • 2020/21 offseason: resigned Ray Nov 7th, Jan 23rd signed Springer, Jan 30th Semien, Feb 23rd Stripling traded for.
  • 2019/20 offseason: Signed Ryu Dec 27th
  • 2014/15 offseason: traded for Donaldson Nov 28th
  • 2012/13 offseason: the Miami trade Nov 19th (got Reyes, Buehrle, Johnson, etc.) and signed Melky Cabrera the same day, traded for Dickey Dec 17th
  • 2009/10 offseason: traded Halladay away Dec 16th
  • 1996/97 offseason: signed Roger Clemens Dec 13th
  • 1992/93 offseason: signed Joe Carter & Paul Molitor Dec 7 (critical day for that WS), Dec 8th signed Dave Stewart,
  • 1991/92 offseason: signed Jack Morris Dec 18th, signed Dave Winfield Dec 19th
  • 1990/91 offseason: traded for Devon White Dec 2nd, Dec 5th 'the trade' (Fernandez/McGriff for Alomar/Carter)
Obviously many more signings/trades I could've included but that gives an idea of when to expect big moves. Many mid-December so a few weeks left until the big wave hits. But some do come in November and some in January, after January few big names are on the table.

Of note: Donaldson is trying to convince the Jays to sign him. I don't see it happening, even as a plan Z.
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John Northey - Monday, November 20 2023 @ 03:57 PM EST (#439891) #
FYI: this could impact Manoah's situation - Spencer Turnbull awarded full year of service for 2023. Basically he was hurt but sent down anyways in August (sounds familiar). He is a free agent as Detroit didn't offer him a contract but this means he has 5 full years of service time thus cannot ever be sent down again without his permission, plus will be a free agent again next winter if he is up in the majors for the full season. Big deals for a player. Manoah's situation is more expensive as he now has just 63 days over 2 years instead of 130 which means he isn't into arbitration yet when he could've been this winter, plus if he goes down again in 2024 for just over 2 months (April/May and into June) he loses a year of free agency. Very big deals if he recovers to even just a league average inning eater, let alone the Cy contender he was before.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, November 20 2023 @ 03:57 PM EST (#439892) #
A total of 63 players were non-tendered on Friday.
greenfrog - Monday, November 20 2023 @ 04:19 PM EST (#439893) #
RHP CJ Van Eyk is listed by BA as one of the 10 most intriguing Rule 5 possibilities:

Van Eyk had an excellent college career at Florida State, but a rough stretch of health as a professional. He underwent Tommy John surgery following the 2021 season and missed all of 2022. Van Eyk returned in May and made three appearances for Low-A Dunedin, but was taken out of play for roughly six ensuing weeks. He returned fully in late July and made nine appearances across three levels, finishing with four truncated starts with Double-A New Hampshire, then made five appearances in the Arizona Fall League. Throughout it all, Van Eyk’s hallmark 12-6 power curveball has remained a weapon and may allow him to get out in a big league bullpen right now. He mixes the 81-83 mph power curve with a cut-slider at 84-86 mph and a 92-93 mph four-seam fastball. Van Eyk’s heater has dead zone shape, but he could mitigate that if he finds added power in a relief role.
John Northey - Monday, November 20 2023 @ 04:36 PM EST (#439894) #
Yeah, I'd be surprised if no one takes a flier on Van Eyk. If you are a team that is going to lose 100+ like Oakland why not give him a shot? If he sucks, then let the Jays take him back mid-season. If not, nice guy to get for $100k.
soupman - Monday, November 20 2023 @ 05:09 PM EST (#439895) #
Donaldson makes sense depending on the price. Problem is his legs are the last in a long line of 3b that have come to Toronto to die on the turf.
Ducey - Monday, November 20 2023 @ 05:21 PM EST (#439896) #
Van Eyk is going to have an uphill climb to go from 3 IP x 4 games in AA to surviving in a MLB bull pen.

I guess he could get "injured" but other than this it would seem he would be a guy who get returned.

Donaldson looks done. OPS + of 132 (28 games), 127, 93, 79 over the last 4 years. He will be 38 in a month. He has injuries to same place, repeatedly.

And he doesn't seem like the kind of guy who would be happy filling a bench role.

Already watched Tulo fade away with a repetitive injury. Dont need to see it again.
dalimon5 - Monday, November 20 2023 @ 06:31 PM EST (#439897) #
"Donaldson makes sense depending on the price. Problem is his legs are the last in a long line of 3b that have come to Toronto to die on the turf. "

Scott Rolen didn't seem to have any issues. The turf in the dome is now not nearly as bad as it was in the past. They replaced and upgraded the infield to pure dirt and sand when Donaldson was here so he spent very little time on artificial turf anyways.
Ducey - Monday, November 20 2023 @ 06:40 PM EST (#439898) #
Donaldson played on grass in Yankee Stadium and still broke. Its those calf muscles.

I saw this from last season when he got hurt for the Yankees near the end of his time there:

"His offensive output has been suppressed by a .076 batting average on balls in play that registers as the lowest in modern history for someone with at least 100 trips to the plate. (Donaldson has made 120 plate appearances.)"

So I guess there is some upside there if you believe he will go back towards the mean. (Or he may just be done)
Marlow - Monday, November 20 2023 @ 08:44 PM EST (#439899) #
I would stay away from Donaldson. The mental damage he done to young players like Dalton Pompey at the time was flat out wrong. The guy is not a good mentor and not a good teammate.
greenfrog - Monday, November 20 2023 @ 10:08 PM EST (#439900) #
Assuming the Jays won’t land Yamamoto, I wouldn’t mind if they acquired Gray or Imanaga. I like the idea of having five good SPs (I’m not counting on Manoah to be one of those five). Someone in the projected rotation is usually having an injury or performance issue of some kind.

I would support signing Lee to play outfield in some capacity.

John Northey - Tuesday, November 21 2023 @ 12:15 AM EST (#439901) #
Marlow - geez, didn't know about the bullying. Found an article on it with details. Given that there is no way Donaldson should be a plan Z even. Toxic guys like that you don't need. Similar with Sonny Gray and his racist tweets. The Jays are known for wanting a solid atmosphere and those two players are clearly not what they want.

Imanaga is interesting - very solid starter in Japan, 3 straight years of sub 3 ERA's with 149-159 IP each year. Entering his age 30 season he would be a LOT cheaper than Yamamoto but not as good. Still would work well as the #5 guy in the rotation who could be a decent #3.

Lee is a guy I'm hoping the Jays get but now the Yankees and Giants are both chasing him according to Jon Morosi which ups the cost significantly most likely. Still, a very tempting player to chase.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, November 21 2023 @ 08:02 AM EST (#439902) #
Liam Hendricks also made reference to Donaldson's unsavoury character.

Not eager to know the greasy details, but it's curious when such particulars never come out publicly.  Usually TMZ (or the like) will expose everything.
bpoz - Tuesday, November 21 2023 @ 09:34 AM EST (#439903) #
If position prospects earn promotions in 2024 we don't want Donaldson messing with them.

I analyzed the Verlander competitive offer by the Jays. Houston won that contest. Verlander missed 2020 & 21 and signed a 2 year deal with an opt out (I think) because he elected to be a 2023 FA. The Jays IMO were taking advantage of a possible cheap deal. Very smart. So Verlander was signed before 2022 which was the same time Gausman signed. Would the Jays have signed both? I don't know.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, November 21 2023 @ 10:12 AM EST (#439904) #
It's no secret Donaldson is kind of a dick, but I'm skeptical of stories that are written out like gossip columns. What does "bullied" mean in this context? There's an unsourced reference by Brunt, and a vague quote from Pillar that could be interpreted to reference Donaldson and/or other team members. If Donaldson's behaviour really goes beyond "unpleasant" into "toxic/dangerous", maybe someone should actually come out and say it?

It's pretty much a moot point - he'll be 38 this year, and hasn't been good for years. Maybe he'll get a spring training invitation for someone, but I don't see him being any better than the Jays current options.
Marlow - Tuesday, November 21 2023 @ 11:21 AM EST (#439905) #
My last workplace was an incredibly negative place. The owners would roll back salary temporarily, people have their territories and slow down workflows on a whim. The people in general would put down each other behind each others back. My cubicle coworker, every other word he said was negative. No one said anything at the workplace. They would just grin and nod, and they just sucked it up, because it was a job. I was lucky to escape that place. If people ask me about my old workplace, I would just recommend them to try somewhere else.

Just because people do not say things publicly for the record, does not mean it is not true. People will know, as I am sure the Jays' front office know about Donaldson's character.
Glevin - Tuesday, November 21 2023 @ 11:33 AM EST (#439907) #
If Donaldson were the player he was a few years ago, I'd say being a dick wouldn't matter as much but he's 38 with WRC+ of 126, 98, and 78 last 3 years. Yes, he was extremely unlucky with BABIP but he was also extremely lucky with power. I think he's probably an injury-prone 1 WAR player if tings go well. Doesn't seem to be any point except scratching a sentimental itch.
Glevin - Tuesday, November 21 2023 @ 11:45 AM EST (#439908) #
"Yeah, I'd be surprised if no one takes a flier on Van Eyk. If you are a team that is going to lose 100+ like Oakland why not give him a shot? If he sucks, then let the Jays take him back mid-season. If not, nice guy to get for $100k."

Two reasons. He doesn't throw very hard and projects as a back of the rotation guy with proper development but if he's in the majors, you aren't developing him properly. Second, because he pitched 13 innings in AA last year and has thrown 33 innings total since 2021. What's a realistic inning total for him this year? 50? I mean, if you can DL him for most of the year sure, but the upside for carrying him on the roster doesn't seem to be there. I mean, someone might take him but I wouldn't bet on it.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, November 21 2023 @ 11:54 AM EST (#439909) #
Do we really need to debate if something is true because it is said by someone else or not? Imagine if our justice system worked like that. Here are some random J.D thoughts from me:

He is a dick who would show up to spring training in his Porsche 911 with "Rain" as a license plate. He was also the best player in the league at that time who was severely underpaid at the time. He also ushered in new approaches to swing planes as a player when everyone was striking out.

He outworked most on his team and called out his peers publicly and privately.

It's irresponsible to say he was a bully without any evidence or's just speculation otherwise. Yes people have come out and said they don't like him but the only reference to bullying which is a whole other thing is a vague reference in the gossip article aforementioned.

Look at his treatment of Tim Anderson...that's J.D. in a nutshell. Did he bully Tim Anderson or did he just take off his kids gloves and confront the guy by chirping him? It's a fine line and I'm not ready to subscribe to a sporting culture where you are not allowed to taunt or chirp the opposing teams or where any comment you make that may possibly have two or more meanings automatically gets associated to having been meant in the worst possible, preferably degrading manner possible. Our cancel culture is an alarming problem. I don't think anybody subscribes or endorses bullying and it's very easy to fall into the camp of cancel culture when labeling someone based on a few quotes or a gossip column.

Alek he a clubhouse "cancer" because he is a "bully" because players around the league have gone on record to say they don't like him because he chirps players and pitches inside to some of the best players in the game? Is Stroman a bully who FOs should avoid at all costs to sign? It just seems silly to me to write someone off based on player quotes or something else that is not on record...besides, as pointed out...there are many other reasons to pass on J.D.
Gerry - Tuesday, November 21 2023 @ 02:17 PM EST (#439910) #
Dan Szymborski's next ZIPS projection will be for your Toronto Blue Jays.
uglyone - Tuesday, November 21 2023 @ 02:45 PM EST (#439911) #
Nigel - Tuesday, November 21 2023 @ 02:59 PM EST (#439912) #
I might have marginal quibbles with some of that (a bit optimistic at 2B and pessimistic at LF) but that seems fair to me on the whole.
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 21 2023 @ 04:06 PM EST (#439913) #
I don't know how Dan does zWAR, in relation to bWAR and fWAR.  There are some large differences between the two systems, particularly for pitchers and skilled defensive players (there is a connection there).  For instance, Blue Jays starters 2023 bWAR figures with fWAR in brackets: Gausman 3.4 (5.3), Bassitt 2.5 (2.6), Berrios 2.3 (3.0), Kikuchi 1.8 (2.6) and Manoah -1.1 (-0.4).  I find the ERA and IP projections much more interesting for pitchers because they relate more clearly to how much pitcher can be expected to pitch on average and the overall runs allowed. 

If the overall runs allowed is projected to be down, I will have questions.  They have the same pitchers and they've lost Kiermaier and Chapman. 
Nigel - Tuesday, November 21 2023 @ 05:20 PM EST (#439914) #
Agreed Mike - and then add in an inordinately healthy season from most of the top P's and a RA regression is likely next year.
greenfrog - Tuesday, November 21 2023 @ 10:28 PM EST (#439915) #
The Blue Jays need to find a five-win player somewhere.
John Northey - Tuesday, November 21 2023 @ 10:55 PM EST (#439916) #
So with 3 methods of projections what do we see? WAR from ZIPs-Steamer-Depth Charts
  • Rotation: Gausman (4.1-4.4-4.4), Bassitt (3.4-2.4-2.5), Berrios (2.5-2.3-2.3), Kikuchi (1.8-2.2-2.2), Manoah (1.4-0.9-0.9)
  • Pen: 4.1-4.2-3.6)
  • IF: Vlad (2.8-4.1-4.2), Schneider (2.5-1.8-1.9), Bo (3.8-4.2-4.0), Biggio/etc at 3B (1.3-2.0-2.2)
  • OF: Springer (2.7-3.0-2.8), Varsho (2.2-3.0-3.1), Lukes (1.6-0.5-0.7)
  • C: Kirk/Jansen (4.1-3.0/2.1-3.1/2.1) listed as Kirk/Jansen although ZIPS is a merged
Realistically DH/LF/3B won't be the mess of guys listed here but instead be someone signed for each position. The significant spreads (1 WAR or more or darn close) are for Bassitt (up to a full WAR), Vlad (1.4), Varsho (0.9), Biggio (0.9 maybe), LF mess (vs Lukes alone is a 1.1 WAR spread, but I suspect if we broke it down it'd be a lot less), and Kirk/Jansen (1.1 WAR spread). I suspect most are easy to explain as if nothing happens all winter odds are Kirk/Jansen will both get a lot of DH time, Biggio under this setup would get lots of LF time, I didn't factor in Espinal at all (split 3B/2B).

Big thing to me is how ZIPS loves Bassitt vs the other systems and how ZIPS doesn't like Vlad much, but at 2.8 he'd be a big improvement over last year anyways.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 07:58 AM EST (#439917) #
"The Blue Jays need to find a five-win player somewhere." 100%
John Northey - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 09:16 AM EST (#439918) #
So you're saying they need to sign Ohtani or trade for Soto. That's it for guys you can realistically hope for 5 wins from.
greenfrog - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 09:27 AM EST (#439919) #
Darvish was a five-win player when he arrived in the majors. Yamamoto might be one, too.

Atlanta found 10+ WAR when they traded for Murphy and Olson. Finding high-value players can be done. The Jays reportedly might have been able to acquire one in Jose Ramirez had they been willing to include Manoah in their trade proposals (oops).
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 09:52 AM EST (#439920) #
Morosi says the Cubs have talked to the Jays about Bichette and would like him to play 3B.

I don't see how the Jays would entertain that unless Bichette has indicated an unwillingness to remain in Toronto long term.

Also not sure you can trade Bichette and have gaping holes at both 3B and SS...
greenfrog - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 10:15 AM EST (#439921) #
Maybe Bichette is unhappy in Toronto.
ayjackson - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 10:21 AM EST (#439922) #
What could the Cubs offer?
bpoz - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 10:25 AM EST (#439923) #
Morosi may be trying to drum up interest by making stuff up.
John Northey - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 11:06 AM EST (#439924) #
Checking the Cubs on trade values I see Bo for Justin Steele (RHP, free agent post 2027 3.8 bWAR last year) comes up as fair value, or Bo for Nico Hoerner (2B signed through 2026 97 OPS+ in 23 and career) & Christopher Morel (116 OPS+ in 23, 110 lifetime, played 2B/CF/LF/RF/3B/SS last year).

Realistically there really isn't a solid match though. Steele is interesting but the Jays need big impact now, not 4 years of solid. If the Jays fail to sign anyone this winter and can't make a trade to improve the team, then I could see doing a full rebuild - Cubs then could send top prospects Cade Horton (RHP 1st round 2022, 2.65 ERA over 3 levels ending in AA last year), Kevin Alcantara (CF 20, barely reached AA last year [5 games] 810 OPS in 2023 overall, 811 lifetime), Matt Shaw (SS - 1.018 OPS over 3 levels ending in AA last year over just 38 games, 1st round pick last year) for Bo as it comes up as a fair trade. I think the Cubs would be taking a MASSIVE risk of being blown out long term with that deal if Bo doesn't sign long term there. If the Jays decide to rebuild though boy could that be a sweet deal. Not going to happen though as the Jays need to contend in 2024 with the rebuilt park or Atkins is fired.

I'd rather the Jays used the free agent market to improve myself. Spend more on undrafted free agents (aka players from outside the US/Canada) via better and deeper scouting (like what found Kirk & Moreno) to build for the future.
scottt - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 11:16 AM EST (#439925) #
They signed Bichette for  3 years and he's possibly making less than if he'd just gone through arbitration.
Players are only happy when they are playing well and overpaid.

The position player side of the market is very weak.
They Jays are already looking for 2 or  3 power bats and guys who can play LF and 3B.

When the Jays sign someone for more than 1 year at 3B and Barger or Martinez come knocking is when other teams should call.

Maybe Ian Happ is asking for a trade?
I don't think Bichette has the arm for 3B and I'm pretty sure he's not looking to move from shortstop.

dalimon5 - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 11:33 AM EST (#439926) #
Bo out of TOR is juicy material for the press here...
Glevin - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 11:59 AM EST (#439927) #
Jays need to kick tires on everyone but Bo makes less sense than anyone else to trade. They don't have another SS and he's their best hitter in a lineup that needs offense. Cubs make less sense than most teams as they have a SS and they don't have good players to give back (a lot of OK players).
greenfrog - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 12:08 PM EST (#439928) #
Maybe Bo wants to win a WS and he doesn’t think Montoyo, Schneider and Atkins are the kind of managers likely to make this happen.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 12:15 PM EST (#439929) #
Is Brandon Belt still an option for DH? Meantime, any interest in Joey Votto?
dalimon5 - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 12:35 PM EST (#439930) #
If anything Bo would be upset with the plethora of teammates who left him stranded on the bases. To have as many hits as he did with his low run totals speaks volumes.
Ducey - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 12:43 PM EST (#439931) #
We know that the Jays are always exploring anyone and anything. I would expect the Cubs called them. It doesn't make any sense for the Jays.

The odds of them trading Bo this offseason are about the same as them signing Ohtani.

Generally their trades come out of nowhere, so the fact that there were "discussions" actually likely means nothing is happening.

As for Votto or Belt?

Votto is 40 and would just be replacement value (OPS+ 99). He doesn't have a platoon advantage vs RHP, he only hit .196/292/411 vs them last year. So he doesn't fit the Jays well. Doesn't seem any better than Horwitz would be.

I would not mind Belt on a one year, but he is looking for multi year deal, I expect. He is too fragile for that.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 01:30 PM EST (#439932) #
Belt has gone on record to say he is not even sure if he will play another year...I highly doubt he's looking for a multi year deal that would hamper a team.

In 2023 after returning from torn biceps and rotator cuff surgery, in only 208 AB, Joey Votto had 14 HR and 38 RBI. His OPS was .747.

This is likely the floor for this first ballot Hall of Famer and I would be all about signing him to a 2 year deal and batting him 2nd.

Guerrero Jr

John Northey - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 02:01 PM EST (#439933) #
The only way I'd touch Votto is if I was 100% certain he was healthy and likely to play a LOT better than he did last year. Otherwise there is no point with a contending team to sign a guy limited to DH/1B. Belt would be nice but it depends on how much he wants to play. I'm hoping that Ohtani signs soon so we can get him out of our minds as an option (or by some miracle he signs here then we can go crazy on 'how does this affect everything' and 'can he play LF in '24?').

As to free agency - Shota Imanaga is supposed to be posted between now and Monday, thus giving him up to a week after Yamamoto has been signed. Jung Hoo Lee hasn't officially been posted it seems but would be nice for LF (strong defense, not exactly what the Jays are after as he is more a high average, high contact hitter (46 K/600 PA) with 'meh' power and speed who bats left - potentially a nice #2 hitter in the old traditional way but nowadays more likely a #6/7 hitter. The more I look at free agents the more I like the idea of resigning Chapman - thus explaining why the Jays appear to be putting a big push on to do that. Signing a top pitcher though might be the best route of setting up 2024-25. Yamamoto is a long term guy (entering age 25 season), Imanaga more short term (thus might be better for the way the Jays are planning), Snell might be ideal in the end (injury/consistency issues could keep his years down), Montgomery also could be a nice fit (can eat innings, solid 110+ ERA+ the past 3 seasons in a row with 150+ IP each time). Bellinger's rumors have been oddly quiet given he is seen as the top non-Ohtani hitter out there but given the Jays couldn't get him on the dotted line last year suggests he won't be an easy signing (if not impossible). Wonder if Stroman might make sense for a reunion?

Grr... I keep meaning to stop speculating on free agents but dang, with so little to talk about right now it is hard to resist.
Ex Jay reunion? Gurriel for LF, Teoscar for DH, Stroman for rotation, hold onto Chapman
Super expensive dream: Ohtani DH, Bellinger LF, hold onto Chapman, Yamamoto for rotation
Realistic maybe?: Rhys Hoskins DH, Jorge Soler LF, Jeimer Candelario 3B, Lucas Giolito rotation (all in the 11-19 range at FanGraphs)

The realistic would be depressing as I'd rather see kids in some of those slots. Odds are trades will be happening involving guys like Espinal, Manoah, maybe Jansen, maybe Biggio. All depends on what other teams want and what they offer in return. I'd hate to lose Jansen but it isn't hard to imagine a team wanting him as their #1 making the Jays a solid offer to fill a different hole. Then the Jays could sign a standard backup catcher to help Kirk if they feel Kirk can handle 120+ games behind the plate.
Gerry - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 02:45 PM EST (#439934) #
Eugenio Suarez has been traded to the Diamondbacks so he won't replace Chapman.
Gerry - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 02:53 PM EST (#439935) #
Fangraphs has published the Zips projections for the Jays. Dan notes that Vladdy is one of the hardest players to forecast with a wide variance in possible outcomes. I think we all know that.

He thinks Davis Schneider will be fine, 2.9 WAR.

His sleeper is Connor Cooke, a hard throwing reliever who reached AAA this season.
scottt - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 03:24 PM EST (#439936) #
Votto will be 40.
Since reaching 37, he's been solidly replacement value. (-0.4 bWAR) over 2 years.

Maybe a  1 day contract to retire a Blue Jays.
I wouldn't even bother with a spring training invite.

85bluejay - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 03:34 PM EST (#439937) #
Nice trade by Arizona - Suarez on a reasonable contract and only 1 GTD. year, also his power should pick up in Arizona.
scottt - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 04:17 PM EST (#439938) #
Also, now the Mariners need a new thirdbaseman.
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 04:24 PM EST (#439939) #
To flesh out the ZiPS projection for Davis Schneider.  He is projected for 2.9 WAR in 502 PAs, with a 111 OPS+, +6 on defence and even splits.  ZiPS does not claim to know much about playing time..  You would think that a player of that quality and age would play every day, but given what happened last year, that cannot be assumed.  Anyways, over a 650 PA season, that's a 3.8 WAR player behind only Bichette on this club.   Schneider's projected slash line of .230/.333/.430 isn't too far from Isaac Paredes' career line of .229/.326/.438.  Schneider's #1 comp is Denis Menke who was good; his #2 comp is Harlond Clift who was the best third baseman of his time.  For what it's worth ZiPS is a little more optimistic than I am about Schneider- I think the offensive projection is bang on, but that breaking even on defence is likely to be closer.  Spencer Horwitz' projection is pretty good; he's a perfectly fine platoon first baseman.  Good defence and .264/.353/.401 against RHP.  If they find a platoon partner for him, they could make Guerrero Jr. a full-time DH. 

As for the pitchers, it's interesting that the fourth and fifth best projected ERAs belong to Ricky Tiedemann and Bowden Francis, with Kikuchi and Manoah following. Gausman, Bassitt, Berrios and Kikuchi are all projected to have noticeably higher ERAs than last year.  Which makes sense given the loss of key defensive support. 
SK in NJ - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 07:36 PM EST (#439940) #
If the source for the Bichette/Cubs rumor is Morosi, then I'd file it under "clickbait for engagement" and move on. I wouldn't be against trading Bichette depending on the return, but I'd be shocked if he was moved this winter.
bpoz - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 08:51 PM EST (#439941) #
Many small moves happening. Only Nola was the big move that I can remember. Bad memory BTW.

The B Little move was a small move as was the M White move. A small OF move seems likely IMO.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, November 22 2023 @ 09:09 PM EST (#439942) #
The New York Mets hire John Gibbons as bench coach.
John Northey - Thursday, November 23 2023 @ 12:24 AM EST (#439943) #
Looking at the ZIPS data in depth I thought I'd look at the spread in 20-80th percentile potential for WAR for them. Basically, what is the range of likely performance for everyone.
  • 2+ WAR Pitchers spread: Kevin Gausman (2.3-4.6); José Berríos (1.2-3.3); Yusei Kikuchi (0.4-2.4)
  • 2.5+ WAR Hitters spread: Bo Bichette (5.8-2.3); Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4.7-1.3); George Springer (3.6-1.0); Daulton Varsho (3.4-0.7); Orelvis Martinez (2.1 to -0.7)
Clearly hitters have a bigger window than pitchers in this method which seems odd as normally I'd expect pitchers to be more variable. But hard to argue with Vlad, Springer, and Varsho. Any kid will have a wild spread too. Bo's is bigger than any other Jay which seems odd as his last 3 years (his only full time years given his short intro in 2019 and the short 2020 season) have been 5.1-4.5-3.8 fWAR seasons, sadly declining each year but still damn solid. Vlad those same 3 was 6.3-2.8-1.0, also a decline but a heck of a lot bigger decline. Logically given their ages both should rebound a bit this year rather than continue to decline. I really hope so at least.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, November 23 2023 @ 08:20 AM EST (#439944) #
As Leaside mentioned, John Gibbons is back in baseball. I would like to see how the Jays would have fared in the last two playoffs with him as skipper instead of Schneider. Of course, the front office wouldn't have wanted someone who followed his own instincts by watching how a pitcher is performing, but rather a puppet who follows a pregame prepared script.
dalimon5 - Thursday, November 23 2023 @ 08:40 AM EST (#439945) #
If he were here in 22 then the Jays likely would have gone to the next round and lost to the Houston Astros. I think they were a better team than SEA and would have kept the lead in game 2 and taken game 3.

For this year I think they still get eliminated by the Twins except in 3 games rather than 2. If by some chance they beat the Twins then they again will have been eliminated by the Astros in the next round.
Gerry - Thursday, November 23 2023 @ 10:08 AM EST (#439946) #
Morosi may have floated the Bichette to the Cubs rumour. However, today I listened to Scott Mitchell and Gregor Chisholm on Scott's podcast. They both believe that Bo will not re-sign with the Jays and will head to free agency. As a result they both believe that Bo will be traded before he runs out his contract. That could be this off-season, next off-season or in mid 2025.

Its just something to keep an eye on.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, November 23 2023 @ 10:32 AM EST (#439947) #
Yeah, I would tend to agree with you, dalimon5. The thing is, baseball is weird and sometimes when teams get momentum they just keep going. The Jays need to win a game in the playoffs first.
bpoz - Thursday, November 23 2023 @ 11:46 AM EST (#439948) #
I think Cincinnati will be good in 2024. Elly De La Cruz.
Dr B - Thursday, November 23 2023 @ 12:35 PM EST (#439949) #
the front office wouldn't have wanted someone who followed his own instincts by watching how a pitcher is performing, but rather a puppet who follows a pregame prepared script.

The front office did make an offer to Kermit but that fell through. Yoda or Jabba the Hutt perhaps? Yoda would be good for the batters.
Glevin - Thursday, November 23 2023 @ 01:05 PM EST (#439950) #
"Morosi may have floated the Bichette to the Cubs rumour. However, today I listened to Scott Mitchell and Gregor Chisholm on Scott's podcast. They both believe that Bo will not re-sign with the Jays and will head to free agency. As a result they both believe that Bo will be traded before he runs out his contract. That could be this off-season, next off-season or in mid 2025."

Completely fine trading him but fit needs to be right which means team needs to get SS somewhere and also offense. What about Bo and Vlad to San Diego for Soto and Kim (with some prospect balancing)? Would be a massive shift for the team which might be a good thing and 2 for 2 star San Diego trades have a history.

Vlad's Zips comps have gone from Pujols and Eddie Murray last year to Mike Sweeney and Billy Butler this year. That's quite a comparison change.
soupman - Thursday, November 23 2023 @ 01:23 PM EST (#439951) #
i have to assume the Padres would love to shed Tatis (PED and decline plus they owe him 1/3 of a billion USD). Went from a first-ballot HoF trajectory to a solid player with gold glove defence in the OF but dropped 200pts in OPS. I don't follow the friars, so idk if there's an explanation that is more elegant or compelling that PEDS, contrary to the claims of the mike wilners of the world, actually do Enhance Performance.
Glevin - Thursday, November 23 2023 @ 02:31 PM EST (#439952) #
Tatis still was worth 4.4 WAR mostly because of insane D in RF. I expect a bounce back offensively too this year. If the Padres are open to trading him, I'd be very happy to take him. He was extremely unlucky on OBP last year and unlike Vlad, he is very fast so his OBP has no real reason to be suppressed. I expect 4-7 WAR seasons for a number of years. End of contract might be ugly but I think you get way more up front to make it worth it.
Ducey - Thursday, November 23 2023 @ 02:34 PM EST (#439953) #
Seems a bit early to be worrying about Bo's free agency.

Given they have Orelvis, Barger, Jimenez, Kasevich, Toman, Doughty, Beltre, and Nimmala as SS propects, it would make more sense to see if any of them can develop before trading Bo and creating a hole.
bpoz - Thursday, November 23 2023 @ 02:50 PM EST (#439954) #
Great point Ducey. Kacevich probably hits for Avg and has great D. He was not promoted from Vancouver but IMO should have been. Jimenez also has great D but too many injuries so far. Orelvis and Barger should get to show their stuff in the ML after 200ABs more in Buffalo.
Ryan Day - Thursday, November 23 2023 @ 02:53 PM EST (#439955) #
If the Padres are willing to move a young, great player like Tatis, I wonder what it says about their opinion of him - like they don't trust him to stay away from motorcycles, PEDs, or other career-endangering activities.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, November 23 2023 @ 04:01 PM EST (#439956) #
Also, now the Mariners need a new third-baseman.

Ken Rosenthal reports that Seattle plans to give the 3B job to Luis Urías, who the Mariners acquired from Boston last week.

John Northey - Thursday, November 23 2023 @ 04:23 PM EST (#439957) #
From what I'm reading Tatis trade rumors are more due to the team having major cash issues and trying to find creative ways to deal with that as they'd rather keep Soto. One thing they want to do now is clear out Xander Bogaerts due to his 10 years remaining after signing that deal last winter.

So for a 'holy cow' trade - Bogaerts & Tatis for Bo & Manoah is listed as a 'fair trade' at Baseball Trade Values. Now that would shake up a LOT. Bogaerts is projected for a 4.0-4.1 WAR next year (FGDC & Steamer resp), Tatis 5.5-5.6. Meanwhile Bo is 4.0-4.2 and Manoah just shy of 1. SD hasn't had their ZIPs projection done yet. The price is Bogaerts is signed for age 31-40 at $25.45 mil a year, Tatis 25-35 $324.9 mil ($29.5 mil a year) and Tatis missed 2022 due to PED's and injuries, then had a 113 OPS+ last year vs his career 160 before that. Yikes. Basically if the Jays did that trade they'd be locked into those 2 for a LONG time which can be a good or bad thing depending on how they are seen going forward. If Tatis doesn't get that bat going again it would be bad. Wonder if he'd be open to playing 3B (used to be a SS, now is a RF)? I'd role the dice if the team scouts feel Tatis is likely to get back close to the 150 OPS+ he was showing earlier. But boy would it be a BIG risk for everyone.
scottt - Thursday, November 23 2023 @ 09:34 PM EST (#439958) #
Yeah, but Urias hit .194 in Boston which is not exactly a pitcher's paradise.

They made the move because they want less strike outs, more balls in play.

He looks more like plan B or even plan C to me.

scottt - Thursday, November 23 2023 @ 09:47 PM EST (#439959) #
Bichette is like everybody else on the team.
Who is willing to sign a team friendly extension?

Bichette is a Floridian. I don't see him taking a discount to play somewhere in particular.
He's just  going to take the best deal available once he hits the market.
If the Jays want to keep him, they'll have to pay him what he wants.
Which is not necessary the best move.
He's such an unusual player. Hard to imagine him signing a  10 year deal like Vladdy could if he gets back on track.
Also, his defense is always going to be a concern.

The same scenario played out with Chapman and Hernandez.
They kept Chapman and traded Teoscar, but that's because Springer needed to move to RF.
I don't think they are overlay concerned about Bichette walking away and them only getting a compensation pick for him. Teams paying the luxury tax don't usually care about that.

scottt - Thursday, November 23 2023 @ 10:06 PM EST (#439960) #
Gibby wasn't exactly a wizard in the playoffs himself.
I'm still more annoyed at Dickie being pulled for Price than the Berrios/Kikuchi swap.

The KC team that defeated the Jays in 2015 had great defense and a strong bullpen but they were also keen on the fundamentals of baserunning. That's one thing the Jays need to work on.

John Northey - Thursday, November 23 2023 @ 10:06 PM EST (#439961) #
I agree scottt - the only way I really see a Bo trade happening is if the Jays strik5e out in their efforts to get a star from free agency, and then have trouble matching up in trades. SD seems the best match as they are clearing out salary and have a SS they want to dump even though he pretty much did as well as expected in 2023. Very weird, but does create opportunity. Just did a totally nuts deal there - Soto, Tatis, Kim, and Machado for Bo. Covers LF/3B/SS/RF (shift Springer to DH mostly and 4th OF) but boy would it jump payroll - $68.8 mil in 2024 ($95.1 for payroll tax purposes) then $40-65 mil a year going forward for just Tatis & Machado (Kim into arbitration/free agency, Soto free agency after 2024). But it would solve all problem areas immediately, skyrocket defense at SS/RF and keep it strong at 3B. Lots of money risk but damn would that make for a nice lineup. Can't see Rogers approving that much extra payroll without getting Ohtani though.

Ah the silly time of year when all things are possible.
soupman - Friday, November 24 2023 @ 08:12 AM EST (#439963) #
I had drafted basically this and then didn’t post. Tatis makes 11m next year before his salary jumps up (and then is 36m for the last 8 years). Personally I think a 200 pt drop in OPS following a PED suspension says more about the fact that steroids work than anything.
bpoz - Friday, November 24 2023 @ 09:33 AM EST (#439964) #
I am with LC. In 6 weeks most of the moves will be done. But we can speculate in the mean time.

I am shocked that D Schneider is considered 2.9 WAR. It would help if he is that good. He has worked hard and had a fantastic 2023. I hope his D is decent at 2B/LF and he hits well.

My conservative hope is for a good DH costing $10mil to help the O. I expect a cheap defensive OF to be added soon to back up Varsho. Someone like Jonathan Davis who can sit on the bench. We still need another OF that can play regularly. I can't figure out who. This allows 2-3 months time for prospects to develop. The power of Orelvis, Barger and Palmegiani will be fun to watch in Buffalo and at some point in Toronto.
Michael - Friday, November 24 2023 @ 11:05 PM EST (#439984) #
I don't like the holy cow trade. It is trading low on Vlad and Manoah and being locked in to big money for a long time. It might work out, but it has a much bigger chance of being bad, possibly cripplingly bad.
John Northey - Sunday, November 26 2023 @ 12:16 AM EST (#439994) #
I won't argue that Michael. More having fun dreaming of what insane trades could happen but likely wouldn't. Heck, years ago I felt a Reyes for Tulo deal could happen but no chance (you could find it with enough hunting I'm sure) when I was trying to figure out how the Jays could improve on their team in 2014/2015 with the limited players who were better than what they had at each position. Loved that I got that one right somehow.

But now the team is far more careful about money and the only way I see them going nuts is an extension for Vlad or Bo, or signing some big guy thanks to bonus cash/pressure from Rogers.

FYI: Vlad still is a 'wow' when it comes to potential. The favorite toy has him at 16% shot at 3000 hits, 4% at 3500. 27% at 500 HR, 11% at 600 HR. Few players ever reach 10%+ for odds of either. Beltre who is likely voted into the HOF this year had just 99 HR at the same age as Vlad, and 749 hits in about 300 more PA (reached majors at 19 and didn't have to deal with a pandemic in his age 21 season). At 25 Beltre had his first great year (and probably his best) with 48 HR and a 163 OPS+, lets hope Vlad duplicates that (at 24 he had just a 88 OPS+ and probably could've been had for a song, then went to Seattle for 5 meh years 101 OPS+ before a great year in Boston, then taking off in Texas for the rest of his career).
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