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Now that the top 30 is done, lets talk about some other guys in the system. We will start with the players who dropped off the 2023 list.

Gabriel Martinez had a great season in 2022 playing well in Dunedin and then hitting .324 in 28 games in Vancouver. That caught the attention of prospects watchers and he made several top 30 lists. He returned to Vancouver for 2023 and it didn't go as well. He hit just .242. He had an extremely average season. He has some power, 12 home runs, 28 extra base hits. He walks a bit, strikes out a little but not excessively. He turned 21 during the season. He is still young but needs a big return to form in 2024. I assume he should be back in Vancouver until he proves he can handle that level.

His teammate Rainer Nunez also had a big 2022 and he too returned to vancouver for 2023. Unlike Martinez, Nunez hit well in 2023. In 37 games, he hit over .300 and earned a promtion to New Hampshire. There he seemed to hit a wall. He hit just .224 in 78 games, around ahalf season. He did hit 20 home runs. One positive is that he played in AA at 22 years old. But he is a first baseman and it is tough for a first baseman to make it to the majors versus other hitters who slide down the defensive spectrum. Nunez should be back in NH for 2024.

Otto Lopez is now 25 years old and it seems as though if he has a major league career it will be as a utility player. Lopez missed almost half the 2023 season with an oblique strain. When healthy he hit .258.

Tanner Morris is a good AAA or quad A player. he hits reasonably well for average, has an excellent eye at the plate but doesn't have much power or speed. He did have a 105 wRC+ in AAA but he is at best an average defender at second or third. He is 26 now so his chance could be gone.

Adrian Hernandez looked to have a chance at a major league career thanks to his above average change-up/screwball. His issue was a well below average fastball. He was sent down to New Hampshire to start 2023 to find more fastball velocity and he wasn't good, ERA of 9 in April and over 6 in May. But he finished the season with ERA of 2 in August and September. Despite the excellent change up, his chance looks to have passed him by.

Jimmy Robbins had an excellent 2022 despite fringy stuff. 2023 was not as good although generally not terrible. He finished with a 4.67 ERA in NH but in a brief cameo in Buffalo he was hit all over the park. He is 26 now and again, time is passing him by.

Irv Carter had a tough 2022 with a few flashes of good starts. 2023 was a mess, a 8.60 ERA in 37 innings. It seems like he just can't sort out his delivery.

Zach Britton has trouble staying healthy. He had jus 55 at-bats in 2023 and hit .218. He had around 250 at-bats in 2021 and 2022 and only hits a little. He is 25 now.

Hayden Juenger was a sixth round pick in the 2021 draft and he has been fast tracked, ending 2022 in Buffalo and returning there for 2023. His ERA last year was 6.33. He is prone to giving up the long ball, 18 home runs allowed in 75 innings. His batting average against went from .195 in AAA in 2022 to .285 in 2023. Thats around three per nine innings. Juenger is still just 23 years old, youngish for AAA so he has time to figure something out.

Estiven Machado hit .187 in 68 games in Vancouver. Nuff said.

And now some players who just missed the list.

Cam Eden made it to "The Show" last year. He did because he is an excellent outfielder with plus speed. As a hitter he hit .257 with an 81 wRC+ in Buffalo.

Fernando Perez was signed by the Jays in 2022, played in the DSL that year and was in the FCL for 2023. In eleven games there he posted a 2.72 ERA with a 29% K rate. He has a tall pitchers body, sits 91-94 with the fastball and has a good curveball and change-up. Reportedly he was up to 96 mph at the end of the season. He is young, just 19, but should be in Dunedin to start 2024.

Devereaux Harrison was a ninth round pick in 2022 and pitched in relief in that year and until the end of May 2023. At that time Vancouver needed an extra starter and Harrison got the job. At that time he had a 3.38 ERA as a reliever so expectations were not high. In that first start he went five innings and just allowed one hit. He followed that up with four June starts and a 0.78 ERA in the month. From there his ERA bumped up to 3.92 in July and 4.38 in August. His strikeout numbers were average, 8.4%. His walk rate was 3.6%. Harrison's ERA was better than his underlying numbers but he took a big jump forward in 2023. He was 22 years old then and should be in New Hampshire as a 23 year old in 2024. He will look to take another jump forward there.

Sam Shaw was drafted in the ninth round of the 2023 draft out of a Victoria BC high school. He just played in nine games but scouts have been talking him up. He played second base and centre field in the FCL.

Nolan Perry was drafted in the 12th round of the 2022 draft out of a high school in New Mexico. He didn't pitch in 2022 but threw 38 inning in the FCL in 2023. His ERA was a lofty 7.28 so why talk about him? well his xFIP was 3.85, much better. He struck out 51 in 38 innings. Perry got some attention at the end of the season when he faced a loaded Yankee lineup. He threw five shutout innings with seven K's. He has the ability, he needs consistency.

The Blue Jays acquired Edward Duran in 2022 in the Anthony Bass/Jordan Groshans trade. He is a catcher who also played some first base. Duran hit .340 in 50 at-bats in the FCL. That earned him a promotion to Dunedin where he hit .299 in 77 at-bats. Duran controls the zone well, walking more than he strikes out. He is 19 years old and one to watch in 2024.

David Guzman and Aneudi Escanio are two hitters from the DSL that should be in the FCL in 2024. Guzman is a right fielder who hit .292 with a .793 OPS in 2023. He walked more than he struck out at age 17. He is listed at just 5'7" so he will need to keep proving himself. Escanio is older, aged 18 in season, but he was noted when he ran his average up to .365 in late July. He fell off in August, hitting in just one of his last nine games. We don't know what that was due to but he will get a chance to repeat that in 2024. Escanio played all over the field for the DSL Jays, with 3B being his most played position.

Trenton Wallace is a left handed pitcher who was an 11th round pick in 2021. He had an excellent 2022 moving from Dunedin to Vancouver. He was back in Vancouver to start 2023. In eight starts he had a 1.79 ERA, a WHIP of 0.82 and 47 K's in 40 innings. That earned him a promotion to New Hampshire before going on the IL in June and that was basically it for the season. He should be back in NH for 2024.

Mason Fluharty is left handed reliever. Fluharty was also a reliever in college and continued in the bullpen after he was drafted. He was a 5th round selection in 2022 which is a relatively high draft position for a pure reliever. After he was drafted Fluharty was sent straight to Vancouver where struck out 12.3 per nine in 15 innings.

He returned to Vancouver to start 2023. He spent six weeks there, appearing in twelve games, where he replicated his 2022 stats by striking out 21 in 15.1 innings. He only allowed seven hits in those innings and had a .059 ERA. That was enough to see him promoted to New Hampshire. In NH he appeared in 48 games with 54 strikeouts in 42 innings. He was hit a bit, 49 hits in those 42 innings with 18 walks. But remember that this was Fluharty's first full season and he is still just 22 years old. He pitched most of the season at age 21.

Fluharty is not a hard thrower. He has a low 90's fastball but relies more on a cutter that comes in around 90 mph. He also throws a sweeper. Fluharty sets up on the extreme first base side of the rubber and throws at an angle to left handed hitters. That makes him tough on lefties but the ball is coming in to righties making it easier for them to see him. In the "old days", before the three batter minimum limit, Fluharty would be a great LOOGY candidate. With the new rules Fluharty will have to work on getting right handed hitters out. But time is on his side. The Jays are working with him to try and get another tick or two on the fastball.

Fluharty will likely return to New Hampshire to start 2024 as there appears to be a logjam of relievers in Buffalo. He should aim to get to Buffalo by mid season.

It seems as though Manuel Beltre has been around for a long time but he is still just nineteen. He played all of 2023 in Dunedin. He hit .231 in 98 games. He does have a bit of power, 22 doubles and six home runs in the FSL which is often tough on power hitters. Beltre is average in a lot of things he does, K rate around 20%, walk rate 11%. Fangraphs noted that Beltre doesn't have a stand out tool. He is still young.

That's it for minor league week here on Da Box. we will be back with the minor league updates in April.

Blue Jays 2023 Top Prospects - The Others | 59 comments | Create New Account
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Mike Green - Friday, January 12 2024 @ 09:08 AM EST (#441567) #
There are some players here, who I think have a reasonable chance of being major leaguers and making a noticeable contribution.  Cam Eden, as a 4th/5th outfielder and pinch-runner, fits very nicely on a bench and might graduate to a platoon player.  Mason Fluharty is, I think, good enough to make it for a noticeable bullpen role for a few years- perhaps of the Tim Mayza type.  His line in New Hampshire was the result of some awful BABIP luck.  Trenton Wallace is a lefty with potential.  Manuel Beltre has been about a league average hitter at age 18-19 in Dunedin (.239/.337/.352 with a 49/86 W/K).  And he's a shortstop.  He has a noticeably better record than Tucker Toman, say, plays shortstop better and is younger.  

If the #11-#30 in this system is noticeably weaker than the typical, the #31-#35 is, if anything, a little stronger, in my view.  I don't put much stock in the Fangraphs overly negative scouting comments. 
bpoz - Friday, January 12 2024 @ 09:32 AM EST (#441570) #
Thanks for the hard work in constructing these lists. The "others & 21-30" will provide movement next year. I have a few favorites in the DSL & FCL that still missed the list.

Daniel Guerra in the FCL gave up 15 of his 20 ERs in his 1st 3 games. In his other 6 games the 19 year old 6'6" 230lb righty SP was dominating.

In the DSL I liked Brazilian righty SP Sann Omosako and 3B Aldo Gaxiala from Mexico. Both are 2023 signings and have size.
Glevin - Friday, January 12 2024 @ 11:00 AM EST (#441576) #
Shaw and Duran look most like prospects to me mostly because they have a lot of room to grow. Duran would probably be more like top-25 prospect for me already. Eden would have been interesting in the 80's maybe but modern game doesn't really have pinch runners. Benches are too small to carry someone who can't hit at all. I had a quick but not the most thorough look and couldn't find a single player with anything resembling Eden's skill-set in the majors
Ducey - Friday, January 12 2024 @ 12:32 PM EST (#441584) #
I may have missed him but how about Steward Berroa?

24 yr old OF who hit 272/380/414 in AA then got a taste of AAA. He is 5'7" but hit 7 HR and stole 47 bases last year. He played most of his games in CF

Could be a 4th OF in MLB before long.
Mike Green - Friday, January 12 2024 @ 12:41 PM EST (#441585) #
We'll see, Glevin.  The new rules did change the dynamics of basestealing.  Basestealing attempts were up 25% with no signficant loss of effectiveness (75% overall).  If someone like Eden can attempt to steal against almost any battery with an 80-85% chance of success, that changes things.  It's early days yet, and you wouldn't expect teams to change roster planning in the first year of a new system. 
Marc Hulet - Friday, January 12 2024 @ 12:44 PM EST (#441586) #
I would add that Rafael Lantigua, Andres Sosa, and Victor Arias would be in the 27-35 range for me. Sosa has a little pop, will take a walk and does a nice job with the pitchers. Arias has some pop, will take a walk, and is a good base runner. Lantigua has versatility and despite his size hit 40 doubles (with 12 homers) and decent exit velos. He also walked 98 times in AAA and his holding his own in three Dominican winter league against more experienced pitchers. He has more BBs than Ks.

Kendrys Rojas is my sleeper pick for 2024. If he stays healthy, he has a really good shot to be a Top 10 prospect in the system and the upside is No. 2 pitching prospect in the system.
Mike Green - Friday, January 12 2024 @ 01:39 PM EST (#441593) #
Sure, Marc. Ernie Clement also doesn't earn a mention but he's a decent player right now and maybe can hold it for a few years, and again in the same vicinity as Lantigua.  Clement's 80th percentile ZiPS projection has him hitting .302/.338/.437 as a decent defensive shortstop.  That's a fine player.  The projection isn't far-fetched.  His K rate was a microscopic 5% in Triple A last year and a very low 8% in MLB, while hitting 29% line drives in triple A and 23% in MLB.  And there is signfiicant evidence of medium range pop. 

I wondered if there was a player like Clement, a rookie shortstop at age 28 who went on to have a good career.  There was one- Solly Hemus.  He came up in 1951 and produced 17 bWAR in 1951-3, which is more than any shortstop in MLB from 2021-3.  Youneverknow.  Of course he was a Cardinal. 
Glevin - Friday, January 12 2024 @ 02:11 PM EST (#441599) #
'We'll see, Glevin. The new rules did change the dynamics of basestealing. Basestealing attempts were up 25% with no signficant loss of effectiveness (75% overall). If someone like Eden can attempt to steal against almost any battery with an 80-85% chance of success, that changes things. It's early days yet, and you wouldn't expect teams to change roster planning in the first year of a new system."

I very highly doubt it because the only thing that would change this is benches getting longer. If you have a 6 man bench, you can have a pinch runner. If you have a 3 man bench, you don't have room for someone so situational.
Nigel - Friday, January 12 2024 @ 02:28 PM EST (#441601) #
If the last 50 years of baseball watching have taught be anything its that the majors seem to be littered with C's who develop into regular or part time C's without any prospect pedigree of note. The Jays have many examples of such - Gomes, Kratz, Adams, etc. Sosa would be my bet from the current Jays system to potentially follow that path. I'm not saying it would happen, but he does offer a bit of everything (a bit of pop, decent defence, the appearance (from the outside) of leadership).
Nigel - Friday, January 12 2024 @ 02:29 PM EST (#441602) #
Coke to Marc on that.
Cracka - Friday, January 12 2024 @ 02:49 PM EST (#441605) #
I wondered if there was a player like Clement, a rookie shortstop at age 28 who went on to have a good career.

Ben Zobrist? 145 games through Age 27 season (Clement has 138) and then became a regular and all-star at 28. Not a SS, but Whit Merrifield only had 81 MLB games through age 27, and also became regular at 28.
Mike Green - Friday, January 12 2024 @ 04:02 PM EST (#441606) #
Three-man benches are now against the rules, Glevin.  Of the 26 man roster, no more than 13 can be pitchers.

Glevin - Friday, January 12 2024 @ 04:36 PM EST (#441608) #
Three-man benches are now against the rules, Glevin. Of the 26 man roster, no more than 13 can be pitchers.

Well, backup catcher is pretty set and inflexible so not counting that on the bench. You have 13 pitchers, 9 regular hitters, backup catcher and 3 bench spots. Look at the Jays for example. You have Espinal and Biggio as backup infielders and let's say Joc Pederson/Soler as DH/LF. Where is Cam Eden going to fit in? Even with another bench spot and only 12 pitchers, I'd much rather carry someone who can be used in multiple scenarios. Being able to run is an asset but you need to be able to do other things as well.
Mike Green - Friday, January 12 2024 @ 05:19 PM EST (#441609) #
Well, backup catcher might be inflexible but Jansen and Kirk actually provide more value than your typical starting catcher and backup catcher arrangement.  They are both good hitters and, particularly against a LH starter, it is desirable to have both bats in the lineup in some formation. 
Mike Green - Friday, January 12 2024 @ 05:31 PM EST (#441610) #
Joc Pederson bats left, and doesn't make a great pairing with Varsho and Kiermaier.  Soler is a poor defensive left-fielder and is DH only.  He actually doesn't add much value at all over Horwitz at first base and VGJ at DH.  But let's say they found a right-handed hitting corner outfielder who hit well enough that he could DH also sometimes.  In that case, I can see why you wouldn't want Eden.  But, without such a player, I can see it.  With Kirk on base late in a tie game or down a run, a good pinch-runner makes a lot of sense, and if they happen to bring on a lefty to face Varsho or Kiermaier and Jansen is on the bench, you can pinch-hit Jansen and you've got your new outfielder and catcher in the game. 

Isn't it best to wait to see what players they have when spring training arrives?
John Northey - Friday, January 12 2024 @ 07:13 PM EST (#441612) #
The sub 30s are always interesting to look at - often hidden gems but most often guys who might get a cup of coffee or be career backups. Still, fun to look at and dream.
scottt - Saturday, January 13 2024 @ 09:49 AM EST (#441624) #
Hayden Juenger was a sixth round pick in the 2021 draft and he has been fast tracked, ending 2022 in Buffalo and returning there for 2023. His ERA last year was 6.33. He is prone to giving up the long ball, 18 home runs allowed in 75 innings. His batting average against went from .195 in AAA in 2022 to .285 in 2023. Thats around three per nine innings. Juenger is still just 23 years old, youngish for AAA so he has time to figure something out.

18 HR/75 inning is 2.1 per 9 innings or are you talking about something else in a line that was dropped, because  3 per 9 innings can't be related to batting average.
greenfrog - Saturday, January 13 2024 @ 05:25 PM EST (#441635) #
Does anyone know why Kennew Blanco (who was reportedly going to sign with Toronto) is not included in this year's list of projected international prospect signings?
mendocino - Saturday, January 13 2024 @ 07:03 PM EST (#441639) #
I have seen a bunch people asking but no answer.

Scott Mitchell@ScottyMitchTSN
·Jan 12
Blanco isn’t signing this year. Had to pull him off my top 50. Reasons unknown.

Junior Arias and Juarlin Soto were names mentioned to sign last year but signing this year. Could be a bonus thing, birthday not till June maybe he signs then or next year.
John Northey - Saturday, January 13 2024 @ 08:17 PM EST (#441640) #
I've read the Jays have 4 or 5 of the top 100 ready to sign, so maybe they set it up for him to sign next year so they'd have more bonus room. Or they are working on trading for more.
Marc Hulet - Sunday, January 14 2024 @ 12:06 PM EST (#441651) #
Ben Badler wrote something about how it's not overly uncommon for some players to fail the initial MLB screening and require more time.... which can be age or ID discrepancy. That's what happened with Arias last year. Kennew is also one of the youngest players in the class, and the Jays could see value in keeping him in less competitve settings at their DSL complex while skill building and working out.
mendocino - Sunday, January 14 2024 @ 11:40 PM EST (#441659) #
down the IFA rabbit hole ...

Jays Prospectus@JaysProspectus
In the wake of this news, Blanco May end up as the top IFA signing in the 2025 class with SS Christopher Polanco also already commanding a 7 figure bonus.
As for 2024, the Jays will spread their money around in a deeper but less top-heavy class than expected.

Kennew Blanco

Cristopher Polanco

metZZ 1986🛜@bkfan09 ·Jan 7
Jays just had a workout with two catchers 2027 and 2028 class .. I’ll just say the Jays are praying there is No IFA Draft for the 2028 Class
mendocino - Monday, January 15 2024 @ 10:01 AM EST (#441662) #

Toronto Blue Jays ($5,152,200)
Franklin Rojas, C, Venezuela
Junior Arias, OF, Dominican Republic
Pascual Archila, OF, Venezuela
Angel Guzman, SS, Dominican Republic
Juarlin Soto, SS, Dominican Republic
Esmeiquel Arreche, C, Venezuela
Javado Bain, SS, Bahamas
Endry Reyes, SS, Dominican Republic
Yohandi Medina, RHP, Venezuela
bpoz - Monday, January 15 2024 @ 11:04 AM EST (#441664) #
Thanks mendocino.
Glevin - Monday, January 15 2024 @ 12:04 PM EST (#441666) #

A nice rundown on the prospects.
bpoz - Monday, January 15 2024 @ 12:49 PM EST (#441667) #
I enjoyed the Int't prospects article. Thanks Glevin.

Regarding Int'l players. If I remember correctly Kirk lasted 2 ABs in 2017 before injury. In 2018 the C got injured so Kirk was given the job as C. He did well catching. Good D I presume. 2019 in the minors as well and always a high Avg & good bb/k. Jumped to the Majors in 2020 and did well .375 Avg. Continued to do well in the majors. So I like his chances of a bounce back in 2024. I hope the pictures of him and Vlad are accurate and that their physiques have improved.
John Northey - Monday, January 15 2024 @ 12:57 PM EST (#441668) #
Thanks mendocino for the info and the link - BA has profiles for 4 of the guys the Jays signed, but no more than 3 for any other team. A good sign imo. However, there are 14 'potential breakout prospects' and none signed with the Jays, but the O's, Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees all signed one. In the end it is very hard to assess as many of these kids are 16/17 years old vs the draft (which is damn hard too) where they are 18+ for the most part. 4 SS, 2 C, 2 OF, 1 RHP - not a bad mix. Lord knows where they'll end up as they grow up but hopefully we have a Kirk or Moreno mixed in there (both are listed as combining for a bonus under $50k total). 2016 was a good year for UFA (4 reached the majors so far with Rafael Lantigua on the cusp and Steward Berroa still has a shot). 2017 was a bust (blew a lot on Eric Pardinho who has yet to get past A+) but has Leo Jimenez on the 40 man so might not be a total loss. 2018 was Orelvis Martinez with Michael Arias on the Cubs 40 man now, 2019 saw Yosver Zulueta & Sem Robberse (both on 40 man rosters) signed but no one has made it yet. 2020 was a 'blah' - none made it, just 8 signed. 2021 has Andres Sosa up to AA, $2.6 mil spent on Manuel Beltre, and a mil on Martin Gimenez.

Basically, the IFA crew is a LOOOONG time to see rewards from. Vlad was super fast, signed in 2015 and majors by 2019 (could've been up in 2018) and is a rare case. A few of these guys will probably be on the top 30 in 2 years once they have shown something in the DSL and come over to rookie ball.
Glevin - Monday, January 15 2024 @ 01:38 PM EST (#441669) #
It's hard to get excited about most international prospects because they take so long to develop but Jays need to start doing better. The recent classes have been weak which I think more than the amateur draft, is what has hurt the system. Meza, Beltre, De Castro etc...have been busts. Looking at Fangraphs top Jays prospects, only Rojas, Santos, Escanio, and F. Perez were signed in the 2019-2022 windows which is extremely light.
bpoz - Monday, January 15 2024 @ 01:40 PM EST (#441670) #
As 2024 progresses we will know how 2B & 3B are going judging by the performances of Schneider, Clement, Espinal, Biggio and IKF. Not including Schneider we are looking at Hr power of 10-15 at best. Of course any of them can earn a full time job and get close to 500 ABs which should mean their O is good and D is good enough I presume. This brings me to Leo Jimenez. His job is to master AAA and then hope for a shot with the Jays and prove himself. He has the D but his O still has to be proven.
Mike Green - Monday, January 15 2024 @ 01:48 PM EST (#441671) #
I don't agree that Beltre has been a bust.  He turned 19 in the middle of last year which he spent in A ball.  His numbers across the board weren't great, but it was a pitcher's league and a wRC+ of 91 with a low BABIP for an 18/19 year old shortstop leaves plenty of room for hope, in my view.  Patience. 
bpoz - Monday, January 15 2024 @ 02:18 PM EST (#441672) #
Signing July/Aug 2019 as a 16 year old means V little playing time that year for me to evaluate. 2020 was cancelled so no playing. Full time playing after that. So 3 years at the end of the 2023 season. Of course all the other teams were in the same situation. The 16 year olds signed in 2019 are now 20. DeJesus & G Martinez signed in 2018 so they did get a full short season in 2019. Machado in 2019.

It does look like I am wrong in my evaluation. However I personally like to be patient and give some slack. Machado had only 1AB in 2021. The new prospect Archila has been on our radar since he was 13 according to Tinnish. Orelvis was a 2018 signing and is on time or maybe early. He is not only talented but has good size. Jimenez will be 23 in May and has burned 2 options so he is either late or on time.
mendocino - Wednesday, January 17 2024 @ 11:14 AM EST (#441702) #
TSN's Scott Mitchell has his top %0 Jay's Prospects starting today with 26-50

26. RHP CJ Van Eyk
27. 2B/OF Sam Shaw
28. OF Yhoangel Aponte
29. OF Dasan Brown
30. OF Gabriel Martinez
31. INF/OF Otto Lopez
32. INF/OF Rafael Lantigua
33. 2B/OF Adrian Pinto
34. RHP Devereaux Harrison
35. RHP Yosver Zulueta
36. RHP Bowden Francis
37. RHP Hagen Danner
38. RHP Hayden Juenger
39. RHP T.J. Brock
40. LHP Mason Fluharty
41. RHP Michael Dominguez
42. RHP Ryan Jennings
43. SS/2B Manuel Beltre
44. 1B Rainer Nunez
45. OF David Guzman
46. OF Victor Arias
47. C Edward Duran
48. 2B Miguel Hiraldo
49. OF Yunior Arias
50. C Franklin Rojas

C Luis Meza, age-19, CPX
RHP Trent Palmer, age-25, A
2B/C Carlos Vasquez, age-19, CPX
OF/C Zach Britton, age-25, AA
OF Yeuni Munoz, age-20, CPX
RHP Eliander Alcalde, age-20, A
1B Peyton Williams, age-23, A+
2B/3B Nick Goodwin, age-22, A+
LHP Trenton Wallace, age-25, AA
LHP Connor O’Halloran, age-21, A
RHP Samuel Acuna, age-18, DSL
OF Railin Tejada, age-19, DSL
3B/OF Aneudi Escanio, age-19, DSL
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, January 17 2024 @ 11:51 AM EST (#441703) #
Wow, Mitchell is sure not high on Zulueta whom he ranked 35th. Zulueta was 12th on the Battersbox top prospects and was in the top 10 last year. I don't know if he'll ever make it as a starter but he might be a decent reliever if he can herness his control.
Glevin - Wednesday, January 17 2024 @ 12:07 PM EST (#441704) #
"I don't agree that Beltre has been a bust. He turned 19 in the middle of last year which he spent in A ball. His numbers across the board weren't great, but it was a pitcher's league and a wRC+ of 91 with a low BABIP for an 18/19 year old shortstop leaves plenty of room for hope, in my view. Patience."

Sure, a 19 YO can turn things around so not writing anyone off at that age but he certainly doesn't look like much of a prospect at this point. And that was more of my point that the Jays have no got any players or good prospects from the 2019-2022 signings. It's still early but looking at Yankees top prospects on Fangraphs, they have 2 50+ FV and 1 45 FV and 1 40 FV prospects from those years. Jays have, 1 40+, and 1 40.
Mike Green - Wednesday, January 17 2024 @ 02:17 PM EST (#441710) #
I don't know, Glevin.  I have very little confidence in Fangraphs' Future Value assessment.  The highest rated prospect from those international drafts is Roderick Arias.  He turned 19 in September, and he's 3 months younger than Beltre.  He was signed in 2022.  He got his start in the DSL and hit .194 with a little pop, quite a few walks and a 33% K rate in 140 PAs.  Last year, the Yankees started him in the Complex League at the beginning of June.  He was hitting .222/.354/.333 prior to June 27. He got scorching hot for 10 days and hit 5 homers.  He played irregularly after that and hit well enough but without power, and his last game was July 20 due to a hand injury for which he had season-ending surgery.  His present hit tool is 20; his present field tool is 45.  Fangraphs projects big improvements in both and hence labels him a 50 FV prospect, but describes him as high risk. 

For comparison, Beltre went to A ball in September 2022 and succeeded there, before having a below average but not terrible year there in 2023.  It's quite possible that Arias won't make it there until almost 2 years older.  Beltre has a better present hit tool, more speed and the same fielding tool, but less present power and much less power potential, according to Fangraphs.  Fangraphs has Beltre as a 35+ prospect.  I'm not saying Beltre is a better prospect (frankly, neither has much more than outsider's shot at being a good player and very little chance of being a great one).  But Fangraphs, in my view, systematically overweights power potential and they may have an unconscious bias towards Yankee prospects.  Take Arjun Nimmala.  He's the same kind of player as Arias, but to my mind, obviously better.  He was a year younger in the Complex League and undoubtedly will be going to A ball next year.  He's got more even power than Arias and the same hit tool issues (it's a very different thing to have that issue at age 17.9 than at age 18.9).  Fangraphs has him as a 45+FV.  I don't have any problem with that rating, pending evidence of what he can do in A ball.  But the same logic that would have you take a cautious view of Nimmala's rating ought to apply with much greater force to a player a year older with a similar talent set in the Complex League, let alone one who has just suffered a season-ending injury requiring surgery in July.   If Nimmala is a 45+, Arias is generously a 40.  Maybe a little better than Beltre.  Maybe. 

The other Yankee prospects have also not yet made it to full-season ball.  Personally, I'll be waiting to see what they do there before attaching much weight at all to Fangraphs' Future Value assessments.

mendocino - Wednesday, January 17 2024 @ 03:56 PM EST (#441715) #
BA's Top 100 is out, Ricky #22 Orelvis #90

Roderick Arias (NYY) #68, Arjun Nimmala had at least 1 vote
Mike Green - Wednesday, January 17 2024 @ 04:05 PM EST (#441717) #
Thanks, mendocino.  I don't see why anyone would think Arias was a better prospect than Nimmala.  Maybe he's a noticeably better fielder, and one can tell that he'll be able to stay at the position whereas Nimmala might be more likely to end up as a third baseman.  For me, that wouldn't do it, but whatever.  We'll see where Arias starts in 2024.
Gerry - Wednesday, January 17 2024 @ 04:10 PM EST (#441720) #
Yankee prospects seem to always get a lot of positive publicity (I guess its good for selling news/articles/subs).

Often the prospects fizzle out or are traded and fizzle out.
mendocino - Thursday, January 18 2024 @ 08:47 AM EST (#441736) #

1. LHP Ricky Tiedemann
2. 3B/2B Orelvis Martinez
3. SS/3B Arjun Nimmala
4. LHP Brandon Barriera
5. OF Enmanuel Bonilla
6. SS/2B Leo Jimenez
7. 3B/OF Addison Barger
8. 2B/OF Davis Schneider
9. OF Alan Roden
10. LHP Kendry Rojas
11. LHP Adam Macko
12. RHP Landen Maroudis
13. RHP Fernando Perez
14. 1B/3B Damiano Palmegiani
15. 1B/OF Spencer Horwitz
16. 3B/2B Cade Doughty
17. OF Jace Bohrofen
18. RHP Juaron Watts-Brown
19. RHP Chad Dallas
20. 3B/SS Alex De Jesus
21. SS Josh Kasevich
22. 3B/2B Tucker Toman
23. RHP Connor Cooke
24. RHP Dahian Santos
25. RHP Nolan Perry
Mike Green - Thursday, January 18 2024 @ 08:56 AM EST (#441737) #
Different universes.  If one has Brandon Barriera as a better prospect than Davis Schneider at this point, it's a different universe from mine.  Barriera indeed might turn out to be a great pitcher, but the odds are pretty heavily against him.  Schneider might turn out to be a great hitter, but the odds are pretty heavily against him.  But Schneider has made it to MLB and there is absolutely no reason to believe that he can't be a good player.  Barriera's ability to make it to the major leagues is very much in doubt.  I understand that there are reasons to prefer "upside" to "floor" as a basis for rating prospects, but if that is all there is, you are doing something wrong. The nice thing about projection systems is that they provide, in the case of an MLB player or high level minors player, a reasonably objective sense of what a floor might be.
Gerry - Thursday, January 18 2024 @ 10:13 AM EST (#441739) #
If you like going back to look at championship wins, Niall has a play by play on the championship final with quotes from the players. Its a good read.
bpoz - Thursday, January 18 2024 @ 11:41 AM EST (#441745) #
Putting a top 50 or 30 prospect list together is very hard. This years list has a lot of IFs so I cannot and will not be critical.

At #1 R Tiedemann cannot go higher but the injury plagued 2023 prevented him from actually looking better. 5-10/15 successful starts in AAA in 2023 and then a ML promotion. The biggest test is ML I suppose. His status could have suffered or blossomed like 2021 Manoah.

Orelvis got past an early AA barrier and then successfully adjusted to AA/AAA over the last 4 months. If he can mash AAA then he will get to play at the ML level as a regular. Will he succeed? If he succeeds like Bo & Vlad then the 2026 season may not be a minor rebuild.

Monster 2023 seasons for Orelvis, Roden, Schneider & Palmegiani due to performance and good health. C Dallas also had a great year which may have been a surprise. If healthy he should pitch a lot of AAA. These 5 + Tiedemann and a few others succeeding will make the 2026 team less needy of outside talent. This is my rose colored version.

After that I see question marks ie volatility. I have my preferences. Very many relievers & 3rd Cs like Clarke & Sosa.
John Northey - Thursday, January 18 2024 @ 08:49 PM EST (#441754) #
I guess a big question now is where would you put Yariel Rodríguez in our list? Obviously a top 10 I'd think, especially given the guy was just handed $32 million.
bpoz - Friday, January 19 2024 @ 06:45 AM EST (#441755) #
Y Rodriguez should be an eventual starter probably in 2025 but some kind of relief role in 2024. For me his is the 2nd best pitcher behind Tiedemann. Ahead of Mako, Barriera, K Rojas and F Perez. So #7 behind hitters Orelvis, Barger, Roden, Jimenez and Palmegiani. I am not counting Schneider as a prospect.

Pitchers need 50 IP and hitters 150 ABs to lose prospect status. I expect that to be broken by some of the 6 prospects ahead of him.
John Northey - Friday, January 19 2024 @ 09:02 AM EST (#441756) #
With Orelvis I see 2023 as a massive plus - his struggles in 2022 were probably his first real roadblock. Vlad didn't hit as bad of one until last year in the majors and couldn't adjust on the fly, Orelvis has now learned what a slump feels like, and how to pull out of it (409 OPS in April, over 1000 in May, all other months in the 800's), which he did a second time in AAA (first 11 games 205/308/386, then 279/349/539 his next 44). I see that as a great sign for 2024. I expect him to start in AAA, play very well in April, call up in May or June depending on ML needs, might slump the first week or two then get it going.
bpoz - Friday, January 19 2024 @ 09:54 AM EST (#441758) #
I too am looking forward to April, May, June for these AAA prospects. It would be amazing if Roden did not struggle in AAA.
Mike Green - Friday, January 19 2024 @ 10:24 AM EST (#441760) #
I agree that Orelvis' season in 2023 was a plus, but for different reasons.  He did master double A in the second two months of 2023.  In triple A, he used a different approach and one that will lead to a better chance that he can hold his own in the major leagues, I think.  His slash line does not tell the story, though.  His .263/.340/.507 line sounds very good, but it was only a 105 wRC+ in the hitter-friendly International League of 2023.  What he did do, seemingly, was flatten out his swing.  His line-drive rate was an excellent 25%, leading to the tolerable batting average despite a high K rate.  His HR/FB rate was down to 17%, good but not outstanding, and his K rate was a too-high 27%.  If he can knock the K rate back to about 20%, which is where it was in double A in the first half of the year, he'll be ready for the big leagues offensively. 

The projections for Orelvis are none too exciting.  ZiPS has him at .221/.289/.413 with a 93 wRC+, -9 defence and 0.6 WAR in 550 PAs.  The 80% offensive projection for him is pretty good- .246/.317/.474 with a 117 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR.  Steamer is even more negative- having him at .213/.286/.397 and poor defence, leading to 0.4 WAR over a 650 PA season (Steamer thinks that he's not likely to get 200 PAs in a season now, given his projection).  I will say that reports on his defence have varied extremely widely, with some (including Keith Law) saying that he could stick at shortstop.  This does not seem to be the organization's current view. 
mendocino - Friday, January 19 2024 @ 11:00 AM EST (#441761) #

The Top 10 (ETA)

1. Xavier Isaac, Rays (2026)
2. Kyle Manzardo, Guardians (2024)
3. Nolan Schanuel, Angels (2024)
4. Abimelec Ortiz, Rangers (2025)
5. Tyler Locklear, Mariners (2024)
6. Matt Mervis, Cubs (2024)
7. Blaze Jordan, Red Sox (2025)
8. Nathan Martorella, Padres (2025)
9. Spencer Horwitz, Blue Jays (2024)
10. Haydn McGeary, Cubs (2025)

The Top 10 (ETA)

1. Kyle Harrison, Giants (2024) BA #26
2. Ricky Tiedemann, Blue Jays (2024) BA #22
3. Robby Snelling, Padres (2025) BA #27
4. Noah Schultz, White Sox (2026)
5. Anthony Solometo, Pirates (2024)
6. Carson Whisenhunt, Giants (2024)
7. Jackson Ferris, Dodgers (2026)
8. Thomas White, Marlins (2027)
9. Robert Gasser, Brewers (2024)
10. Jordan Wicks, Cubs (2024)
Mike Green - Friday, January 19 2024 @ 11:11 AM EST (#441762) #
I always wondered why I didn't hear more about Juan Soto before he emerged on the league fully formed in 2018 at age 19.  He got his start in North America in 2016 at age 17, with 183 PA in the Rookie League (.361 with medium range power/acceptable but not great plate discipline) and then .429 in 24 PAs in the NYPL (Auburn which has memories for me).  In 2017 at age 18, he had 123 PAs, hit .320 in 27 PAs in Rookie ball with a little pop, then hit .361 in 96 PAs with a 10/8 W/K and medium range pop).  The common element- a very high batting average.

He was the #56 prospect in baseball after 2017 according to Baseball America.  In 2018, he started back in the Sally League, hit .373/.487/.814 for two weeks, then went to the Carolina League, .371/.466/.790 for two weeks, then went to the Eastern League and hit .323/.400/.581 for 8 days and the Nationals decided he was ready for the big leagues.  They were not wrong. 

The purpose isn't to rag on Baseball America (although MLB and Baseball Prospectus had him as the #29 and #22 prospect respectively).  Rather to point to the importance of batting average (in context) at a young age.  It is more important than awesome power.  It is very good for a young player to have enough power that as they grow, it can be an important part of their game.  Another example of this would be Jose Ramirez
Glevin - Friday, January 19 2024 @ 12:53 PM EST (#441767) #
"For comparison, Beltre went to A ball in September 2022 and succeeded there, before having a below average but not terrible year there in 2023."

Beltre never succeeded in A ball. He went 8/21 with a BB and a HR. That's having a good few games at the end of the season which is insignificant. The difference between Arias and Beltre is huge. Both were 18 YO at CPX, Beltre had a 96 WRC+, Arias had 143. In major league terms, that's the difference between Bryce Harper and Joey Menses. Arias is unlikely to be a star (vast majority of prospects are and Arias has issues) but Beltre isn't really a prospect at this point and Arias is intriguing.
Mike Green - Friday, January 19 2024 @ 01:04 PM EST (#441768) #
Glevin, for young players, you have to look at month of birth. Beltre was born in June, just before the age cut-off (July 1). Arias was born in September, just after. Beltre was 9 months after.

The other thing is that Arias' performance was over very limited PAs also and was driven by one very short hot spell in the middle of his time before the wrist injury.

Arias is in the Complex, and he's not young and he is injured. If Beltre improves incrementally during the first few months of the season, he'll be shipped to Vancouver and will be a decent prospect, while Arias would still be recovering. Time will tell.
Mike Green - Friday, January 19 2024 @ 01:05 PM EST (#441769) #
*Beltre was 9 months younger.
Glevin - Friday, January 19 2024 @ 02:34 PM EST (#441771) #
"*Beltre was 9 months younger."

Age matters but it's not everything and I'd take someone 19 and raking over someone 18 and being mediocre and it isn't even close. Even if you say Arias was 19 in CPX, he'd still be a better prospect than Beltre and it's not even close.
Mike Green - Friday, January 19 2024 @ 03:33 PM EST (#441775) #
It's true. Age isn't everything. But, it's one thing to rake in the Complex League for 130 PAs to a 143 wRC+ at age 19 and another to rake for 143 PAs to a 176 wRC+ in the major leagues at age 24 (Hello, Davis!).

Personally, I think one ought to take both with a good-sized grain of salt, but the latter is more impressive.
bpoz - Friday, January 19 2024 @ 05:56 PM EST (#441778) #
I was thinking about the age of Int'l signings from DR and Venezuela.

I am in my early 70s. At age 10 I remember 3 brothers Roy was older, Ken was my age and Keith younger. All fantastic athletes. In my 20s I met the son of someone, he was 12 but he was tall, big and well built looked 16 or 18.

To make the math simple a boy born in 2000 will be 13 years old in 2013. J Chourio If I remember correctly was scouted with intent to sign/develop by the Brewers at the age of 13. Then officially signed at 16. We fans don't know the height and weight of these 13 year olds and the Org does not know for sure how tall & heavy they will be at 16 & 17+.

There is no draft of 16 year olds. There is talk of a "Tricky league" an interesting topic. M Beltre is listed at 5'10" and 155lb and David Guzman at 5'7" 160lb. Probably much smaller as 13 year olds.

Andrew Tinnish and his scouts IMO have a tough job because they have to predict so much. A crapshoot? LAD seems to know something IMO. Ash & Richardi did not invest heavily in Int'l players. AA did not last long enough to see his 13 year olds progress. Shapiro knows a lot due to his background and history. Manny & CC. I think you need to hire a lot of "bird dogs" to find these 13 year olds then develop and train them until they are 16/17/18.

Kendry Rojas is a prospect from Cuba signed Oct 14,2020 that we hope will gain velo as the finishing touch to ongoing development.
scottt - Friday, January 19 2024 @ 06:40 PM EST (#441779) #
When my son was 11 and playing Little Leagues, I took him to a tournament in NY  state.
There was one player on one of the team who was bigger than all the coaches and umpires.
That was weird.

John Northey - Saturday, January 20 2024 @ 06:53 PM EST (#441786) #
FYI: putting together my usual top prospect summaries from all the sites I can find and in a shock to no one I'm sure #1/2 are locked in as Ricky Tiedemann & Orelvis Martinez with #3 being Arjun Nimmala from all but 1 (Fantrax who has Brandon Barriera as #3, Nimmala #7). Top 10's from Fantrax and Baseball America, 30 from MLB Pipeline and us, 31 from FanGraphs, and 50 from TSN. Plus extras from us and TSN. It'll be interesting to see as others come in - Baseball Prospectus, Prospects Live, Prospects 1500, Keith Law, Blue Jays Nation, and Blue Bird Banter are ones I find each year. Others have vanished more or less (PitcherList, Jays Journal (still active but doesn't do their own lists it seems).

I have an Athletic subscription so I get Keith Law's but not to Baseball Prospectus or Baseball America (keep debating those 2 but I only have so much money and kids so that messes it up) so I stick to what is publicly available. If I get paywalled data I just make it part of the aggregation, I have no problem with paywalls (annoying as they can be) since I understand they need to make money to survive and hope everyone here respects that and doesn't post paywalled lists on the site.
Gerry - Wednesday, January 24 2024 @ 01:56 PM EST (#441896) #
Cross posting from the other thread so that the minor league threads have this as a record.

Baseball America just announced their top 30 prospects list. If you compare the BA list to the Blue Jays list, there is little difference in the top 20, just two prospects. BA includes Davis Schneider and include Dahian Santos at number 18. we had Santos at 21. Batters Box has Spencer Horwitz and Cade Doughty in our top 20, BA has Horwitz at 22 and doesn't have Doughty in their top 30.

In the 21-30 range there are a lot of differences. BA includes Franklin Rojas, Fernando Perez, Nolan Perry, Mason Fluharty, Hayden Juenger and Sam Shaw. They do not have Alex De Jesus, CJ Van Eyk, Dasan Brown, Lazaro Estrada, Michael Dominguez or Adrian Pinto in their top 30. Rojas just signed for the Jays last week which was too late for the Batters Box list.
John Northey - Monday, January 29 2024 @ 02:41 PM EST (#442020) #
BP just listed their Jays prospects - top 10 were public with no real surprises imo. Top 3 matched ours - Ricky Tiedemann, Orelvis Martinez, Arjun Nimmala. They have Josh Kasevich as #6, far higher than our #18, TSN had him at #20, FanGraphs #9, MLB Pipeline has him at #12 at the moment (they are updating). They have Juaron Watts-Brown at #8, we have him #10, Dahian Santos they have pretty high at #9, MLBP has him #11, FanGraphs #20, us at #21, TSN #24. Spencer Horwitz at #10 (not unreasonable, most have him in the 10-18 range).

I suspect we'll see a few oddballs when I put the final lists together (waiting on Keith Law, and a couple fan blogs). Feel free to send me the full list for BA or BP for the overall picture post (I won't list the individual lists, just a summary and oddballs). My car died totally a few days ago so no buying more baseball stuff for awhile for me.
Blue Jays 2023 Top Prospects - The Others | 59 comments | Create New Account
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