Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Humble travellers we are, uncertain of what lies before us as we set out on a journey into the Western lands. And the words of the poet are ringing in my ears:

Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate


The only way forward is forward.

The Mariners are in first place in the AL West, with a 48-41 record, and the first question that comes to mind is - how? Much of it is just plain good luck - they've gone 18-9 in the one run games. They don't score runs - even fewer than the Blue Jays - but they don't give up many either. In fact, no team in the AL allows fewer runs. T-Mobile Park has a lot to do with that, of course.

Matchups!

Fri 5 July - Gausman (6-7, 4.75) vs Castillo (6-9, 3.87)
Sat 6 July - Rodriguez (0-3, 4.63) vs TBD
Sun 7 July - Berrios (8-6, 3.63) vs Kirby (7-6, 3.32)


Blue Jays at Seattle, July 5-7 | 154 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Ducey - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#448759) #
"The only way forward is forward."

Vladdy* said that "it is necessary sometimes to take one step backward to take two steps forward."

I imagine this is being used often at Blue Jays HQ to justify the crop failure this season.

*Lenin
John Northey - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#448760) #
Boy, Seattle fans must be falling asleep if their team is scoring even less than the Jays. Dylan Moore is the only guy with a 110 or higher wRC+ with 25+ PA (just Victor Robles has it with 10+ otherwise over 22 PA). 9 guys between 90 and 110 for wRC+ over 50+ PA. Wow. Mediocre hitters live in Seattle it seems. Jays have 5 of those. Turner & IKF both are over 110, Vlad at 142, Horwitz 163 - all would be heaven sent to Seattle I suspect. Wonder if they are interested in Turner? wRC+ by month: 151-8-167-145 so far in July. Outside of May he has been 'wow' with the bat. Seattle's main DH has been Mitch Garver (105 wRC+ this year, 138 last year, 119 lifetime, projected at 109 roughly for the rest of 2024). Ty France at 1B has a 106 wRC+, Josh Rojas at 3B is 107. All meh, Turner outhits them all easily. Might be a match. Might.
scottt - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#448762) #
Mariners are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
The Jays are 4-6.

Seattle just lost series to the Marlins, Rays, Twins, and Orioles.
They have been very good against the Rangers, the Astros and, of course, the Angels.

scottt - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#448763) #
BTW, Horwitz talks hitting at fangraphs.
soupman - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#448764) #
The jays have played 65 games (74%) against teams with records better than 500. The Phillies have played 24 (28%).
dalimon5 - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#448765) #
So what you're saying is...if they don't trade everyone, and their bullpen returns then they should go on a run as the schedule evens out? There's a name for that view point. I'm generalizing but...
greenfrog - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#448766) #
Are we really going to do this with Atkins and Shapiro all over again? Do they have such a lock on power that Rogers is going to let them oversee yet another rebuild of the Blue Jays roster and farm system?
dalimon5 - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#448767) #
Ross likely wants to add to fix the roster but Shapiro likely is preventing him from doing so at this point seeing how it's to try to save Atkins job.
scottt - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#448768) #
They need to lose Jose Cuas prompto.
There should be someone better to grab on the waiver line, they get to pick early.

I'm surprised Hagen Danner hasn't gotten the call.
He's pretty close in numbers to Pop.
Eisert is just a placeholder in my mind. The probably don't want to add Tiedemann early at this point.
Fluharty has been the better lefty but he's only 22.
Also, Garcia is getting close to returning which could help a ton.

Gerry - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#448769) #
Cuas has been optioned, Ryan Burr is back.

Hagen Danner is on the IL.
John Northey - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#448770) #
To be honest, I don't see Atkins and Shapiro going anywhere. Shapiro has a lock on the presidency as he got everything done he was supposed to - fixed up the park, fixed up Dunedin, set up a system where others say it is among the best in facilities and atmosphere possible. Atkins is on thin ice, but doubt he is about to be dumped. How he handles this season will go a long way to deciding if he gets to keep deciding things in 2025. If he makes a batch of trades and improves the team for 2025 via them then he gets to stay, if he makes a batch of trades and is universally panned for it then he probably goes away. Due to that I expect him to be limited to impending free agents (Kikuchi, Jansen, Richards, Garcia, Turner, Kiermaier). For anyone bigger (Bo, Bassitt, Vlad, Gausman, etc.) he'd need approval from Shapiro. I'm guessing with Turner choosing to have his kid born in Canada they might try to hold off trading him unless he agrees to it (the old trying to keep good relations with players - maybe it doesn't matter on paper, but when you have to fight the border issues you want to keep guys happy).

We'll see what happens. Earlier I was certain the Jays would dump everyone they could, but now I'm leaning towards them keeping more than expected in an effort to look decent at years end - a 500 record is easier to sell to fans and free agents than a 90+ loss season. IMO they should make high demands for anyone being traded - if the player coming back isn't a high possibility of becoming a key part of future teams then what is the point, might as well just make 2024 as entertaining for the casual fan (who fills the stadium and watches on TV and buys merch) and deal with the future as it comes. Work twice as hard on the draft and IFA's this year and hunt hard in the KBO and Japanese leagues for guys who might help in 2025 and beyond. That is the way forward and should've been done from day one.
Ducey - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#448771) #
Nice of the Jays to treat their fans to a no hitter
Ducey - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#448772) #
KK ok!
Ducey - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#448773) #
Bo, the killer of rallies
Kelekin - Friday, July 05 2024 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#448774) #
If I had to pick one player to break up the no-hitter, it definitely would've been KK.
John Northey - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 01:12 AM EDT (#448775) #
No shock this was a 2-1 game where both Seattle runs shouldn't have scored. If only Horwitz was an inch taller, or if IKF was at 3B instead today (yeah, I know he is injured), or if the umps enforced the 15 second rule (announcers said that was the longest 15 seconds ever when Seattle finally decided to appeal it). Sigh.

Guess we should be thankful we have Varsho - at least we get beautiful plays on defense to watch. Better than nothing.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 07:29 AM EDT (#448776) #
Shea Hillenbrand
Ducey - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#448777) #
Mayza cleared waivers and was released.

Amazing that he, Swanson and Romero all blew up. Garcia recently too.
scottt - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#448778) #
Hagen Danner is on the IL.

Since June 11, I see. Too bad. That guy can't stay healthy.
Fangraphs and Bref don't report him as injured.

Burr is OK. I think it's a mistake to get him to throw more sliders.
Ideally, you have to stay close to 50%. Throw the fastballs outside the strike zone if you have to.
Use it to steal strikes. Mix location either inside/outside or low/high.
It's almost impossible to succeed if you only throw one pitch.
christaylor - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#448779) #
Who was the biggest jerk in Blue Jays history?
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#448780) #
Who was the biggest jerk in Blue Jays history?

Cliff Johnson.

greenfrog - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#448782) #
Dave Stieb?
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#448784) #
Roy Halladay every 5th day (post Harvey Dorfman and Mel Queen)
85bluejay - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#448785) #
Vlad to Seattle seems a potential win-win. Hope it happens.
Gerry - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#448790) #
Turner activated. Barger optioned. I was thinking last night that Barger needs a reset, he hasn't done much.

Maybe Berroa will get an at bat now.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#448791) #
Return would be...? They don't have any top 100 prospects...
Spifficus - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#448792) #
Are you asking about Seattle's prospects, dalimon? I mean, they have ~5 top 100s, and a lot of up the middle talent. If I were in dreamland-fantasyworld on a return, it would be something like Young/Emerson and Ford/Farmelo, and maybe a high upside far away piece to round things out. Of course, I would rather get Guerrero signed to an extension, but if he doesn't want to, it's time to strongly consider moving him.
pooks137 - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#448793) #
It's almost impossible to succeed if you only throw one pitch.

I seem to recall a game last year or perhaps two seasons ago where the Jays had Trevor Richards throw nothing but changeups.

As in, he came into the game and threw 15 or so changeups in a row on purpose.

And I don't believe it was because Richards was particularly dominant or the hitters were helpless.

I recall the broadcast crew being fairly incredulous.

John Northey - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#448794) #
Seattle has 5 50's according to FanGraphs. Plus 2 45+, and 2 40's. Those are all the Jays should be chasing - get a 35 tossed in if you can but those are low end crapshoots and we have lots of those. It's the 50+ you want, but those are damn hard to get. Seattle needs offense, if IKF wasn't hurt they'd be chasing hard for him as he has had a career year so far, not to the point they'd give up a 50 guy, but who knows if you mixed in Turner (their DH has had a bad year). I wonder if they'd give up a lot to get Horwitz right now? Their 2B has a 70 OPS+ vs Horwitz' 163 and given Horwitz is 26 and the Jays never were too high on him it seems, maybe if we got the right package it could work. Hmmm.... Not ideal but worth thinking about. The good old sell high rule.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#448795) #
pooks, I did a search function on the MLB top 100 web site but did not consider that only the top 5 prospects are shown until you select "Show Full List" drop down. I thought it was odd there were no SEA prospects...

BTW Vlad went on record again (third time?) this week to say he wants to stay in Toronto.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#448797) #
I just don't see Vladdy as a player to build around for 10 years. Poor base running and defense plus below-average (useable) power for 1B/DH and he's streaky. Not someone I'd bet 10yr/$25-30M on. Maybe if he'd come in at 6/$28M with a couple of vesting options for higher dollars in years 7 and 8.
vw_fan17 - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#448798) #
What's the story with Cliff Johnson?
I was thinking maybe Todd Sottlemyre or David Wells or Roger Clemens? At least, they had a gruff persona.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#448799) #
How many here think Vlad is not a future hall of famer? He's on a list of 17 MLB'ers along with Trout and Harper for youngest to hit x amount of HR with a specified OPS before x age. Don't have the exact stats but it's from podcast I heard. He's clearly a very valuable commodity and if he isn't a player you would build around I am not sure who would be.
John Northey - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#448800) #
IMO Vlad is a future HOF'er unless injuries/drugs/whatever hits. He'll crack 1000 hits in his age 26 season (next year) most likely (195 shy right now). He'll have 150 HR by the end of this year most likely (7 shy). 10 years, 150 H 20 HR per year seems reasonable to project as a minimum. That would put him over 2000 hits with 350 HR's - damn close to a HOF career and I see that as the low end of expectations. I say sign him to a 10+ year deal so he is a lifetime Jay unlike our past home grown stars (Halladay, Delgado, even Stieb had some time away). Yeah, there will be better players during that time frame, yes, the money might be better spent elsewhere from a pure analytics POV, but for fans and the health of the brand I think signing him is a very solid idea and needs to happen. It isn't every day you have a home grown HOF'er who was even born in Canada.
Glevin - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#448801) #
Not a fan of pinch hitting for Horwitz period. Plenty of bad bats, he's the best right now.
Glevin - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#448802) #
Vlad needs another 40-45 WAR including some huge seasons to be HOF candidate. Seems very unlikely at this point but still young enough where it is possible.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#448803) #
Reasons to extend Vlad: heís having a strong rebound year at the plate, heís still only 25, heís a talented hitter who hits the ball hard, the Blue Jays farm system doesnít have a lot of future stars to build around

Reasons not to extend Vlad: he may not hit enough to justify the superstar contract he wants, his defense and baserunning are poor (making him a future DH), heís had knee and wrist injuries that may be chronic

No idea what the team will do. When he was on the cusp of the majors I suggested giving him a preemptive 10/$300m contract (similar to what the Rays did with Longoria). That probably would have worked out well for the team. But the front office preferred to take it year-by-year with him.
Nigel - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#448804) #
Vladdy is in his 6th season. But for the COVID shortened season heís had full seasons. Heís put up 13.3 fWAR or almost exactly 2.5 fWAR/season. That a slightly above average player. For context, Frank Thomas played a very similar amount in his fits six seasons and at similar ages and put up 36 fWAR. Thatís what a HOF trajectory looks like.
scottt - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#448805) #
Richards surprised the Mariners by throwing more fastballs and breezed through the 7th inning.
That was not going to work in the 8th.

dalimon5 - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#448806) #
Vladdy is going to hit his prime in the next 2 - 5 years. He will be at 15 WAR after his season or 5.5 years. I believe he'd be higher in WAR if he had better hitters around him.

Voters don't use WAR as the main indicator of a HOF inductee and I don't see them changing in the future. Mariano Rivera had 39 WAR. David Ortiz barely 50 WAR.

Vladdy should easily pass 50 WAR with little to no defensive aid.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#448807) #
Thomas was 2 years older than Vlad and played in a completely different era where offense came about easier.
Nigel - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#448808) #
WAR adjusts for era. And yes Thomas was older. But the difference isnít small. 2.5 WAR per year is a slightly above average player. Do you think Varsho is a future HOFer?
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#448809) #
Not at all and as you can see from my last post clearly WAR is not a good indicator for Hall of Fame entry.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#448810) #
If the Blue Jays arenít going to extend Vladdy, now would seem to be a good time to trade him. Heís hitting well, heís healthy, and heís in his prime.

The alternative would be to keep him and make another postseason run in 2025. I guess the team could sign a SP or two, few bullpen arms, and a couple of position players, and then attempt that.

Itís a bit like the Donaldson 2017 situation. You can trade the player when his market value is high. Or you can do it when his value is lower.
Glevin - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#448811) #
Nigel is right re: Vlad VS Thomas except Thomas isn't the bottom threshold for HOF. Vlad's problem is that he needs a few seasons like 2021. Look at someone like Helton who is kind of a bottom tier HOF 1Bman and he had 4 seasons of 6.6 WAR. 7 seasons of over 4 WAR. Counting WAR matters a ton but so does peak WAR. You aren't getting to the HOF as a 1Bman being a pretty good hitter for a bunch of years. Right now, he isn't close or on the right path but he has the talent and young age to change things.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#448812) #
Also, Frank Thomas benefits from the less accurate WAR measurements for 90s and early 2000's players. If statcast was available he'd likely lose similar WAR that Vladdy loses for his defense and that total would come way down.
Michael - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#448813) #
Vlad's at 17.8 WAR on baseball reference (2.5 WAR so far this year). His most similar player through 24 (the last year listed for Vlad) is Eddie Murray who is a HOF.

The average HOF 1B has 64.8 WAR and 4.8 WAR/162. Vlad is at 17.8 WAR total and 3.9 WAR/162. However, most players are better from 26-30 than from 20-25.

You could certainly imagine him finishing this season on about 20 WAR. You could fairly easily imagine him getting 25 WAR in 26-30, and then the same 20 WAR he got from 20-25 for his 31-36 years. That would put him at 65 WAR and right on the average 1B in the HOF.

Given he has a season of 6.7 WAR at 22, it certainly isn't beyond belief to imagine several peak seasons of near that, and 25 in 26-30 is "only" averaging 5 WAR/year, a couple of 7 WAR/year could be paired with a couple of 3 WAR/year and still make that amount.

So there is upside even above that potentially if he puts up seasons even better than the 22 year old season or if his career goes into his late 30s or even early 40s.

Obviously there is also risk with injuries or if you think the good 22 year old season was a fluke and that he's only ever going to be a 4 WAR/season player.

I think he's more likely to miss than make it, but he still has chances (1 in 4? 1 in 5?).

Skillful hitters like Vlad don't grow on trees. His adjusted OPS+ is 17th among active players, and usually that gets better until you are 29-30 or so. The top players under 29 in adjusted OPS+ career (min 3000 PA) are:

1. Soto, 25, 159
2. Acuna Jr, 26, 139
3. Vlad Jr, 25, 131
4. Devers, 27, 127
5. Bellinger, 28, 120
6. Torres, 27, 111
7. Albies, 27, 109
8. Adames, 28, 106
9. Rosario, 28, 96

That's all there are under 29 in the top 100 adjusted OPS+, as usually the top active players are 29+ since the peak for players is 25-30 (plus to get to 3000 PA you have to have been good young to get in).

So HOF or not Vlad is a really, really valuable player to have.
John Northey - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#448814) #
For all players pre-age 26 Vlad ranks #192 for wRC+ pre-today at 131. His dad at the same age was at 141 #90 overall. Despite 2020 Vlad Jr has over 200 more games played than his dad at this stage (and more to come as this full season counts). By WAR VGJ is #287 with 13.3, tied with Rod Carew. Others within a 0.1 range are Harmon Killebrew, Fred Lynn, Dave Winfield, and others. For the stuff voters tend to pay attention to (H/HR) Vlad is #107 for hits at this age and I wouldn't be surprised if he reaches #80 by seasons end (851 hits total needed, he was at 805 pre today), for HR he is #32, just behind Darryl Strawberry and Adrian Beltre, tied with Boog Powell, just ahead of Al Kaline. #38 for HR is Vlad Sr. He is 9 away from catching Willie Mays at this age. #1 for HR after their age 25 season is A-Rod, with Jimmy Foxx probably seen as the 'real' #1 by anti-PEDers.

Looking at those stats and who is around Vlad shows a wide range of possibilities still, with many HOF'ers around him but also a lot of guys whose careers were messed up by drugs, injuries, or whatever. I agreed odds are he won't make the HOF given all the variables still at play, but the fact it is still in serious play is a good thing. I really hope the Jays give him the chance to do it all here. Yeah, he might flop ala Vernon Wells, but he also might keep going strong into his 30's like many other players have done. He has a strong determination and his goal is clearly to be there.
scottt - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#448815) #
The Yankees never extend or trade their players and they are doing just fine.
Let's stop pretending the Jays are like the Rays and care about payroll rather than attendance.

greenfrog - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#448816) #
Boston extended Devers. Theyíre probably glad they did. They are currently occupying a WC spot (8.5 games ahead of the Blue Jays).
soupman - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#448817) #
Bellinger is one of those guys that had an unusual peak that coincided with baseball getting rid of sign stealing. Like the 2019 Minnesota Twins where 8/9 of their regulars hit over 20 HR that year and were significant career highs for most of them.

Anyway, Vlad is a tricky case because there's so much i really don't like about the package. I can't see the player being interested in the kind of deal Marc Hulet outlined, but I can't see the team wanting to commit to the kind of lifetime Jay deal the player might accept. I also think that losing VGJ for a compensation pick would be a big blow, especially were he to sign in the ALEast.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#448818) #
Vladdy is a talented hitter, no doubt. But baseball players should be evaluated on the overall value they bring to their team. Vladdy is currently a 1.8 fWAR player in 2024 -- same as Varsho. They might each finish up with around 3-4 WAR this year. Is Vladdy really worth vastly more than Varsho to the Blue Jays? Setting aside talent and bloodlines and hype, does he merit his asking price (which could be around $400m)? Maybe, I guess, if he plays well and brings in some extra revenue because he's a marketable player?
greenfrog - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#448819) #
Bellinger hasn't been great this year (1.1 fWAR) but he has been better than Kiermaier (0.0 fWAR) and Springer (0.9 fWAR). The Blue Jays are spending almost as much on Kiermaier plus Turner (0.5 fWAR) this year as the Cubs are on Bellinger.

Incidentally, Chapman has been getting it going of late. After a slow start in April, he's now up to a 115 wRC+ and 2.3 fWAR on the season. IKF was still a very good signing, though.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#448820) #
Devers IMO is a better all around player than Vladdy and probably a better hitter. He'll also likely age better -- and that's the other kicker with Vladdy. He's gotten into better shape but I still don't think k he'll age well and will likely start going downhill in his early 30s so it's a shorter runway. Also, once he secures the bag, will he still be motivated? Effort/focus isn't always there with him...
vw_fan17 - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#448821) #
Vlad's at 17.8 WAR on baseball reference (2.5 WAR so far this year). His most similar player through 24 (the last year listed for Vlad) is Eddie Murray who is a HOF.
Sure - but literally NONE of the other "most similar" players are HOF players. To be fair, Freddie Freeman will probably make it, and I guess Giancarlo Stanton has an outside chance. But, BBRef also lists players like Jose Canseco and Ruben Sierra.

Without another 3-4 of monster years (6+ WAR), VGJ isn't getting to HOF levels.

I guess maybe a 5% chance? But, without some truly monster years, he'd have to play another 12-15 years - and I doubt his body holds up that long.
vw_fan17 - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#448822) #
Why is Bichette even playing? And batting cleanup?!? He should be batting 8th or 9th and earning his way back up in the lineup.
uglyone - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#448823) #
Obviously offense always costs more than defense. That's just the way it is. It doesn't mean you shouldn't pay for offense.


Vlad's a top 20 hitter this year, a top 20 hitter since he entered the league, and a top 20 career active hitter. He's very good, even after what looks to be a little dip the past couple years. I'd bet on him being a better hitter the next 5yrs.

And the dude is pretty much never injured, and is very athletic.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 06 2024 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#448824) #
Vladdy said he spent pretty much all of the 2023 season in physical pain.
Glevin - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#448825) #
I'd be happy to sign Vladdy if his ask is around market value. He is a great hitter and will likely remain a great hitter for another 5+ years. But this is not like a Soto or Freddie Freeman or an elite hitter sort of signing. Vlad has so much uncertainty for a great hitter. Most great hitters don't have years like last year ever. And it didn't feel flukey, it felt like he just made horrible swing decisions and it wasn't only last year. He probably won't but would anyone be shocked if he had a terrible month soon where he swings at everything? These aren't concerns normally for top hitters. I don't even know what kind of hitter he his because his results have been so all over the place. He's been in the majors for around five full years and almost half his WAR comes from one single season. If you take out that season, his average WAR per year is like 1.5. It's extremely unusual and makes it very hard to know who he is.

Second. Even if he's a great hitter is he a guy to build around? Unpredictability plays a part in this but so does overall value. Since July 1, 2023, Vlad has been the 36th best hitter in baseball but the 82nd most valuable player. Even just looking at 2024 which is his second best year, he is 61st in WAR. 6th in 1B WAR. Now WAR isn't equal and offensive WAR costs more and is more valued by teams but still... Do you want to give out a massive contract to someone who isn't a top-50 player even in a good year? Then, there are other concerns about staying in shape, mental makeup, etc... I do think Jays should make real effort to sign Vlad but I also wouldn't bet the future on him. Now Juan Soto on the other hand...
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 08:34 AM EDT (#448827) #
The reality is that the chances of getting one of the better players in Toronto are slim to none. To sign someone like Freeman or Soto you would have to drastically over pay the above market deals they would get if signing in their prime. If you compare Vlad to better players it's one thing, but what if you compare him to the alternative which means cycling through "controllable" 1B or signing someone who is not a great hitter? It helps to understand the attraction when the alternative is something between Vlad now and what the Jays were trotting out before he arrived. Finding EE's at fair or below market value is even harder to do.

Let it be known I have thrown out my Alomar poster from my closet this morning. We can pretend it's a sacrifice to the baseball gods to help this team make a miraculous 180 this season.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#448828) #
Another (speculative) reason for extending Vladdy is that it might help attract other quality IFAs from Latin America to sign with Toronto in the future.
uglyone - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#448829) #
Well said Dalimon.

Everyone's afraid of overpaying for a very good 25-30yr old when the reality is that money isn't going to get us anything better. We'll just be left with cheaper crappier players.
bpoz - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#448831) #
I am impressed with Yariel Rodriguez.

You need 7-8 SPs each year. Rodriguez, Berrios, Gausman and Bassit are 4. I continue to hope on Tiedemann who has the stuff to be a good SP. Manoah will give a boost to the last 2 months of 2025. I know that I am being optimistic but that is my nature.

Our D should be strong. O is probably weak. IMO Schneider, Horwitz, Barger and Leo should play their strongest defensive position. Kirk is a good C and he may improve. Springer at DH with some OF play with a rotating DH also makes sense to me. Hopefully Varsho is full time CF. IKF is valuable somewhere. So 2025 may be acceptable.

I don't know what we get in trades or the future of Vlad.
Ducey - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#448832) #
You are overpaying for Vlads age 27 to 37 seasons (more realistically to age 40). Given his history, weight etc, the Jays are going to be overpaying for an overweight DH starting around age 33.

Its hilarious that people were roasting Atkins over "overpaying" IKF. Yet think nothing of dropping an extra $20M a season on Vlad in 5 to 7 years.

I like Vlad, but the Jays just dont have a farm system that can provide the support to build a strong team around him. And Toronto is not a premium free agent destination. They need a blob of good players coming up at the same time. The fastest way to get that is to a) fire the GM and his scouts and b) trade Vlad etc for high end prospects.
scottt - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#448833) #
Right now, they are only missing a cleanup hitter.
They also need to retool the bullpen, for sure, but that's always going to be a concern.

Y-Rod looks like a good signing.

Mike Green - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#448835) #
Jim Rice is the player I think of for Guerrero.  Feared, famous and hit the ball very, very hard.  Rice came up at age 22, and Guerrero had his great season at age 22, so an age 22-25 comparison is fair.  Guerrero's OPS+ during that time has been 138; Rice's was 139.  Rice was a somewhat more valuable defender and less erratic baserunner, and so he posted 18.1 bWAR during the time to Vladdy's 15.1 bWAR (but Vlad has another 3 months to make a dent in that difference).  Rice won the MVP at age 25 and had another great year at age 26. 

From age 27 to 36, he produced 23 bWAR, none of it after age 33.  He had a big year at age 33 (1986) when the Red Sox made it to the World Series and might have won if Bill Buckner hadn't juggled the baby. 

Rice is in the Hall of Fame and made a lot of money, but didn't end up helping his team win a World Series.  Dustin Pedroia was better, also done at age 33, made less money, helped his team win two World Series and made less money.  When the Sox paid more attention to the Pedroias and Youkilises and Bellhorns of the game, they had more success.  Probably just luck.  When they acquired Ortiz, he was hardly known except by serious fans of the game. 
uglyone - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#448836) #
"the Jays are going to be overpaying for an overweight DH starting around age 33."

Oh no the jays might have a bad contract in 2032.
pooks137 - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#448837) #
Fans always say they are okay with the consequences of the back end of washed up extension or free agent contracts hypothetically.

But when the albatrosses actually arrive like they looked like they might've with George Springer and his relatively short 2 1/2 years left at 25 million a few weeks ago, those same fans are the first to call for player and GM to both be shot into the sun.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#448838) #
And as for 2024's performance, Vlad's overall underlying numbers carry a somewhat mixed message.  On the positive side, his sprint speed is the highest of his career and slightly above league average.  He's doing it by sustaining his speed over 90 feet- i.e. running harder.  Also on the positive side, his line-drive rate is a little higher than his career average and his pop-up rate is a lot lower.  His average exit velocity is more than 1 mph in excess of his career norms. On the less positive side, his BABIP is .331, far and away the highest of his career.  After a horrific start in that department, his BABIP went sky high and some of that was probably a little bit of luck.  His IsoP is a very low .167., due to high ground ball rate and an unimpressive 15.7% HR/FB rate.  It isn't his home park this time- he's hit 13 home runs and according to Statcast would have hit 16 had he been playing in the RC all the time.  There's only 1 park where he would have hit more.  Any guesses?

For what it's worth, I do like the overall offensive package, but what concerns me most are the X factors.  It's complicated and I don't have enough information to form an opinion.  And, sadly, I don't have confidence that management can make the refined judgment about his discipline, motivation and maturity. 
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#448839) #
I think it's fair to call out anyone advocating to not resign Vlad and instead trade everyone for restock the farm. I need a solution or proposal that outlines how that is going to work since it hasn't ever worked in Toronto and is even less likely to work now that there is no guarantee of top draft picks. How on earth these posters propose Toronto turn their team around to start producing top prospects like the other organizations in baseball and not like the other 25? Saying "tank and restock" is one thing but proposing it when it was already JUST done and did not work...seems a bit wishful thinking to me.

Here's my updated priorities if I'm Shapiro:

*Resign Vlad for same amount as Devers but no more
* trade Bo in off season to restock farm
* trade Bassitt while his value is very high to restock farm
* trade players on expiring contracts if you get anything good back...maybe that only means Kikuchi and Garcia to restock farm
* sign a real power hitters in the off season like Teo and Pederson (need 2)
* sign two starting pitchers in the off season, one coming off injury to replace Bassitt like Shane Bieber and another to eat innings like Nick Martinez or Sean Manaea
* Resign Danny Jansen and try to trade Kirk
* let Tiedeman, Manoah and Bieber rehab and develop properly for /2nd half plug
* free Jon Schneider to manage without the computer or hire new manager who will

You're going to have over 75 million coming off the books with this plan...probably not enough to pay for 2 power hitters, two SP and a bullpen


* sign 3 bullpen pieces


dalimon5 - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#448840) #
Mike, using that same evaluative lens, how does Rafael Devers grade this year? I believe all players every year always have pros and cons to their numbers.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#448841) #
Also, iphone mini and outdated iOS is no longer passable for posting here without 3-4 spell checks and a prayer. Apologies for the grammatical errors from my mobile.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#448842) #
Devers does have some cons, but the picture is mostly very positive.  His IsoP this year is .282, by far the highest of his career, and he's doing by hitting more HR/FB than at other points in his career and a few more fly balls.  His line-drive rate is right at his career norms and higher than Vladdy's.  He has the highest walk rate of his career (and higher than Vladdy's), but is striking out more than his career average and more than Vladdy.  Devers is 27 years old, and that he might be in the middle of his best year offensively would not be a shock at all. For what it's worth, the red flags with Devers are mostly on the defensive side.   He'll probably move to the other corner in several years. 
bpoz - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#448843) #
I think dalimon5's plan will reset the luxury tax situation. This is my main priority. So Kikuchi & Bassit traded at this trade deadline should do it for this year. Trading KK and J Turner could get us v little talent back and we may have to send money to the acquiring team. 2024 seems lost anyway.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#448844) #
There has been a lot of vacillation about Vlad on this site (including by me). A couple of months ago, some people wanted to trade him for a negligible return and deploy Horwitz at first base instead. Now they like Vladdy a lot more.

Heís been a confounding player. While he is very talented, signing him long-term to a massive contract does carry some pretty significant risks.

The Dodgers let Turner and Seager walk, and theyíve continued to be a successful franchise. Sometimes you have to make the unpopular decision.
Dewey - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#448845) #
Maybe the Jays should make Hazel Mae the GM? She seems to be able to get Vladdy to listen, and to be moderately serious. And he now speaks to her without his translator present.

I also think that Vladdy might, just possibly, be working out (ie., in a gym). He seems noticeably more fit; and the other day when he did his post-game shirt-lifting schtick his belly almost looked flat. Almost. Still, pretty amazing. Maybe heís growing up, some.
uglyone - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#448846) #
"But when the albatrosses actually arrive like they looked like they might've with George Springer and his relatively short 2 1/2 years left at 25 million a few weeks ago, those same fans are the first to call for player and GM to both be shot into the sun."

Ironically it's the biggest supporters of this FO who have turned on Springer the hardest.
uglyone - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#448847) #
"Also on the positive side, his line-drive rate is a little higher than his career average and his pop-up rate is a lot lower. His average exit velocity is more than 1 mph in excess of his career norms. On the less positive side, his BABIP is .331, far and away the highest of his career."

Pretty sure A and B explain C there.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#448848) #
Springer has actually turned his season around pretty nicely. He's on pace for around a 2 WAR season. Not great, but not terrible either.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#448849) #
That's true Greenfrog, but the big caveat is that the Dodgers have two things the Jays do not:

1) desirable destination geographically
2) seemingly endless (enviable) development of prospects
3) president/ownership with top track record

This makes it easy to let guys like Seager and Turner walk because they are replacing them with guys like Ohtani, Freeman and trading for Mookie Betts.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#448850) #
Not in Dewey's back yard everyone!
Dewey - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#448851) #
Sorry, dalimon, I donít know what you mean. Is that some version of a Ďget off my lawní comment, or what?
Nigel - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#448852) #
I agree about Vladdy and his fitness. I actually think the same is true for Kirk. Neither are ever going to look it but I think they have actually taken the hint (at least to an extent). Speaking of Kirk, he is slowly turning his season around and has been the better bet than Jansen for quite a stretch now. Iíd advocate for keeping both Kirk and Jansen but I think itís a coin flip as to who may be the better player going forward.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#448853) #
Get off my lawn is more a term expressing annoyance by the elderly to the young. Not in my back yard is more about a general dissatisfaction with the way things are trending. While the trend (everywhere now more or less) is to look past a person's size and instead look at their performance-related information, my comment is to liken the criticisms of overweight players to the phenomenon of NIMBY. My post directed to you specifically is a retort to your post but more specifically to the fact that we've all gone through that conversation and debate ad nauseam here at the box for Vlad in particular.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#448854) #
It's now been almost a year since Davis Schneider arrived in the major leagues. During that period, the best Blue Jays (of a pretty mediocre lot) have been IKF, Varsho, Schneider, Kirk, Jansen, Horwitz, Bassitt and Kikuchi.

Alejandro Kirk has been quite unlucky so far.  All of his Statcast numbers in 2024 have recovered considerably from his newborn year in 2023, but it isn't showing up in his slash line yet.  Yesterday's game might have been a turning point for him. For what it's worth, both Steamer and ZiPS think that he's going to be a lot better the remainder of this year. 
Nigel - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#448855) #
The thing about Kirk is that his defense is so good that if he can get to be something approximating a league average hitter then heís still an above average player even with his base running issues. Iíve actually been more surprised at Kirkís hitting issues Iíve the past season and a half than Vladdyís.
Dewey - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#448856) #
Well, dalimon, Iíve read your response several times now. Itís worthy of Ross Atkins in its evasiveness. I guess Iím being chided for remarking on Vladdyís fitness (?), as thatís been discussed ďad nauseamĒ on Da Box. I suppose that could be said of many, many matters we discuss? Were you looking hard for something to Ďretortí to?

You wrote ďmy comment is to liken the criticisms of overweight players to the phenomenon of NIMBY.Ē Whoof. Youíll have to explain that a bit: please excuse my obtuseness.

I do hope you recognized that my initial comment about Hazel Mae as GM was intended to amuse ... and hence might have some carryover to the comment about Vl,addyís fitness. (Which does seem to have improved, noticeably, as I said.)
Mike Green - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#448857) #
Agreed, Nigel. I owe you a Coke for beating me to the punch on Kirk. I think he's going to be a good player over the next several years.

If the club stuck with Jansen, Horowitz and Kirk, they'd probably have three positions more or less covered well. VGJ has to clear quite a high bar to be significantly useful. If it was purely a baseball decision, I would trade him rather than Jansen.
Nigel - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#448858) #
Iím really of two kinds about Vladdy. I appreciate that hitters who hit at say 130-135wRC+ donít grow on trees. But heís already making $20m and that will likely grow. I continue to say that you may (may not would) be better off putting Horwitz at 1B (what I think is his best defensive position) at dirt cheap, taking the $20m plus and spending it elsewhere plus whatever prospects you could get from trading Vladdy. Everyoneís mileage may vary on that one. I really donít think the answer is clear. Trading Vladdy isnít out of the question for me.
Petey Baseball - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#448859) #
Barger sent back down.
They've really gotta shelve that leg kick/load he does with his body during the swing. ML pitchers have exploited that.

dalimon5 - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#448860) #
"He seems noticeably more fit; and the other day when he did his post-game shirt-lifting schtick his belly almost looked flat. Almost. Still, pretty amazing. Maybe heís growing up, some."

Oh Ducey. Take two or three shots at a player then retreat. Do you really expect people to read your post and come away thinking you've complimented or called attention to his fitness? To the contrary it sounds like you think it's childish for Vlad to carry any extra weight. Your posts have been littered with sarcasm.

Is that less evasive?
Dewey - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#448861) #
Is that less evasive?

***

Yes, thanks; but:

1. Iím not Ducey.

2. I *did* mean to compliment Vladdy for his improved fitness. Yes. And also for Ďgrowing up someí.

3. Sorry you feel my posts have been ďlittered with sarcasmĒ. I donít agree.

What we have here is a problem of communication.
Gerry - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#448862) #
Love seeing Bo hit that ground rule double to right. When Bo hits to right I think he is going well.
mathesond - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#448863) #
I've been flipping over to Psycho on TCM during the commercials, and I'm not sure who's more deadly, Berrios or Bates. That pitch to end the 4th was gorgeous.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#448864) #
It's all good Dewey (not Ducey). Honestly I am confusing the two users, and you mean "failure to communicate", right?
uglyone - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#448865) #
GEORGE
pooks137 - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#448866) #
I think it's fair to call out anyone advocating to not resign Vlad and instead trade everyone for restock the farm.

It's not so much anything specific to Vlad for me personally. It's more of a general disdain for max salary very long-term contracts to begin with. Even with Vlad being young at present.

I value year-to-year flexibility in payroll rather than locking in a good player like Vlad for a decade at top-of-the-market rates.

Particularly with the competitive window closed and no clear plan to return to competitiveness apparent in the near future. I don't wish to commit a significant chunk of a future GM's resources for years simply because of emotions and FOMO today.

That being said, you also can't just lose Vlad and Bo for 4th round comp picks like they did with Donaldson & Merriweather.

So that means you should dump Vlad and Bo for the best you can get now or next winter, keep resources flexible and figure out the plan from there.

greenfrog - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#448867) #
Some might be tempted to belittle B. Little, but he just kept the Blue Jays in today's game.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#448868) #
Steve Simmons with a simmering article roasting Shapiro.
uglyone - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#448869) #
even i'll take shapiro over simmons.
Glevin - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#448870) #
Steve Simmons is the worst (sports) writer in Toronto.! Don't want know how to make a cogent argument and doesn't know sports. He's also had it out for this front office from day one (I think they let go some of his friends) . There's plenty of valid criticism to go around but not from that idiot.
Magpie - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#448871) #
Seattle left 15 guys on base? Left the bases loaded in the eighth, ninth, and tenth?

Cousins.
scottt - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#448872) #
Alejandro Kirk has been quite unlucky so far.

Yeah, I dunno.

All of his Statcast numbers in 2024 have recovered considerably from his newborn year in 2023.

Exit velo 95, 92.3, 90.5, 87.6, 90.1
He's declining fast and even if you ignore last year, this year is not looking like a recovery.
Hard hit % 50, 46.9, 45.4, 38.3, 39.3.

How does lower hard hit% relates to luck? He's making more soft contact which might look like bad luck, but isn't. 

On the catching side, elite blocker, elite at catching stealers, elite at framing.
The less said about the pop up time, the better.
Doom Service - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#448873) #
Magpie, that's outstanding LOB work in a tie game, but still pales to the White Sox in the first ever Blue Jays game in 1977. I believe they had 19 of them....
John Northey - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#448874) #
Now _that_ was a fun game to watch. Phew. The year might be lost at this point, but damn if they can't entertain still.
scottt - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#448875) #
Vladdy has been working out for years, but it looks like he's being more careful with his diet.
All the Dominicans get together to eat. Vladdy hosts in Toronto just like Tatis hosts in Sand Diego.

Magpie - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#448876) #
I believe they had 19 of them....

They surely did.
Magpie - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#448877) #
Steve Simmons is the worst (sports) writer in Toronto.!

He's had that distinction for decades now. I thought Marty York was a contender, but he went away. Or something.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#448878) #
There always seems to be a niche for one or two predictably negative sports writers in Toronto. Cathal Kelly seems to be one of those writers.
soupman - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#448879) #
I didn't see the double, so to my eyes Bo had a terrible game. The strike out on 3 straight fastballs in the same location after being up 3-0....yikes. Those were not good swings.

I think his biggest blunder went unremarked on the TV broadcast. On the Berrios error, Bo should have been covering second. Berrios had committed to getting the lead runner and Jimenez had to change direction to get to the bag (which wasn't his responsibility since he was playing the ball initially). Berrios messed up the throw because of the confusion in the moment. Ultimately, yea Berrios needs to eat that, but it's hard not to notice when fielders miss their assignment on a pretty routine play.

The eye test suggests to me that Bo is mentally somewhere else these days.
Magpie - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#448880) #
The strike out on 3 straight fastballs in the same location after being up 3-0....yikes.

On the other hand, I did like how he worked a walk in his first AB after falling behind 0-2.
Magpie - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#448881) #
On the Berrios error, Bo should have been covering second.

I just looked at the replay, and Bichette was positioned midway between second and third with a RH batter up, some 40 feet from second base. Jimenez was less than 10 feet from the bag. I think the right guy was covering. The problem was Berrios making a bad throw and a worse decision. The other guys are giving you an out. Take the damn thing.
Glevin - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#448882) #
I love Horwitz. Just such a pleasure to watch. Fantastic eye, works counts, takes good swings, has just some great abs. Complete opposite of so many players we've had over the last while. I don't think he's going to be a top ten hitter in baseball like he is now but I think his being a great obp guy with some pop is sustainable.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#448883) #
My question for Beauxites...how different is Horwitz now vs his first promotion and how much (if any) extra development did the Blue Jays do with him between his two promotions?
Magpie - Sunday, July 07 2024 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#448884) #
I love Horwitz. Just such a pleasure to watch.

What's not to like?

Buck Martinez at least twice this weekend was talking about how Horwitz felt less pressure as a hitter when he was playing second base - a different kind of production is expected from first basemen, and he's aware of it.

What puzzles me is why they never got around to trying him at second base before. The guy is 5 foot 10, which is an obvious drawback at first base. It's been a very long time since anyone that short made a career at first base. He doesn't throw left-handed, there were always other places he could play.
soupman - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 01:34 AM EDT (#448885) #
I looked in the film room and you're right. the sn feed had me thinking Bo just kind of gave up on the ball - but my read was totally wrong there.
dalimon5 - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#448886) #
Anybody here think theres a decent chance this team can go 8-4 against the Giants, Diamondbacks, Tigers and Rangers to come out with a record of 49-53? That would put them four under .500 heading into the trade deadline against the O's and Yankees. Then they have an easy schedule against following teams:

Athletics
Angels
Cubs
Reds
Angels

If what Simmons says is correct (I understand the distrust) then Shapiro is going to want to add to this team to try to get a wild card spot rather than admit defeat. The fact is true that his contract is up next year and doesn't sound like it's guaranteed to be renewed and it definitely sounds like Atkins is being removed end of season either way. Is there still an avenue where Shapiro can save his franchise molded as it is? Try to replicate the artistry of his predecessor who won over the city and just missed out on a World Series after being told he's being passed up for promotion?

Trade Tiedeman for a power bat under control at the deadline
Add two bullpen arms
Resign Vlad in season
Trade Bo off season to restock farm

I'm reading Clive Barker these days and it's fitting being a Jays fan right now. Anybody want to entertain this wild fantasy of mine?
Mike Green - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#448887) #
It would be unusual for a young player like Horwitz to find it less stressful to play a more defending defensive position with very little experience.  I don't buy Buck's reasoning.  It is however true that the opportunities at second base are greater because of the organization's commitment to VGJ at first base, and so there could be less stress when playing second base in that sense. 
Parker - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#448888) #
dalimon, if you're into wild fantasy you should definitely give Imajica a try.
dalimon5 - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#448890) #
Thanks. Once I'm through Cabal!
greenfrog - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#448891) #
"Anybody here think theres a decent chance"

Read Jeff Passan's piece on ESPN today ("MLB trade deadline 2024: Front office execs with most at stake") for the two paths forward Atkins likely has this month.
Ducey - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#448892) #
That Passan piece is interesting. The money quote:

"If the aspiration is just making the postseason, running it back might work. If it's a championship the Blue Jays desire, starting from scratch with a new young core might be the most prudent route."

Thats why I am on team sell.

The best they can do next year is hope everything breaks right and they make the playoffs, just so the holes in the team can get exposed and they lose in the early rounds. They will be relying on a 34 yr old Gausman and 36 yr old Bassitt, and they dont have the farm system depth to back them up.

Then after 2025 they lose Vlad, Bo, IKF, Romano, Bassitt, Green and a couple of others. Even for the most optimistic fan, the window will be closed.

I'd rather they rip the bandaid off and maximize return on their assets this deadline and this winter rather than perpetuating the myth that this group of players is capable of winning anything.

And I am not sure I understand the economic argument to stay the course. The fans are not idiots (at least most aren't). If its more of the same, attendance will drop. If they trade off some expensive contracts, they can chop $100M off payroll easy/ get rid of CB tax. Presumably that would make the owners happy.
dalimon5 - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#448893) #
Ducey I think that's the strongest argument you've made for blowing this thing up, actually. Re: World Series vs playoffs.
bpoz - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#448894) #
Too much confusion about the CB tax!! I refuse to believe that $100mil has to be chopped off. Most likely a typo. I hope so anyway.
Ducey - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#448895) #
bpoz. I probably was not clear.

The Jays are at about $245 M per Spotrac. The CBT is for anything over $237M. Doesnt sound like much, but its prorated, so its maybe like trading an $18 M a year player. Its hard to know the exact numbers.

If they got under, and wanted to go for it next year, then it would be reset and they would not have as many draft pick penalties if they signed a big name free agent who rejected a QO.

But my point was if the argument is that Shapiro needs to justify his $400 M investment in the stadium, chopping $100 M off the payroll would likely satisfy the owners.
scottt - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#448896) #
It's not Buck's reasoning. That came directly from Horwitz.
He said that a first baseman is expected to hit homeruns and that playing second base, he can just be who he is.

scottt - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#448897) #
Bo swings at everything. He's not a guy who punishes mistakes.
He used to swing violently until he got to 2 strikes because he was confident to put the ball in play and not strike out. That's seems to be gone. They figured out that he will chase, so they throw pitches far enough from the zone so that he can't foul them and he gets himself out.
Magpie - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#448898) #
It's not Buck's reasoning. That came directly from Horwitz.

Indeed, and I think it took Buck by surprise, which is why he brought it up a few times.
scottt - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#448899) #
The payout is in the massive contracts.
You won't get an MVP for 6/120M.
That gets you 2 or 3 WAR per year which you can can get from prospects.
The gamble with Othani was to put all the money on 1 guy and play prospects to balance the payroll.
Guerrero won't be that expensive.

The Astros, Cubs and Orioles are the only teams that successfully rebuilt.
The Cubs had a very short window and only won the world series because there were no really good teams facing them.

I trust that Rogers has to sell tickets, food, booze, merchandise and subscription fees.
Let them fill the stadium with a 100 loss team. I want no part of that.

bpoz - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#448900) #
Thanks Ducy for making this clear for me. So somehow get under by the trade deadline which is in about 3 weeks. In the off season somehow get to maybe $200mil or so. This can give us $40mil or so to spend if my math is correct. We spend some of this on 2 good relievers (about $15mil total). They can be traded at next years trade deadline if we are bad enough to be sellers. If buyers we can do what we have to at the deadline.

We don't ever have to save our below the threshold surplus. So we can still be mediocre and compete for a WC at about 88 wins for 2025,26,27. I would like to see a strong and deep team by 2028 which is not expensive.

I have not thought about how we can afford stars which would require big long term contracts.

christaylor - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#448901) #
Um, please remind me of the teams in the WS last year...oh yeah, I remember a 90-win team and an 84-win team. Making the postseason regularly ought to be the goal. The old Billy Beane saying about the playoffs applies doubly now; his tongue-in-cheek comment was about the randomness of the playoffs.

I always get the sense that the fans on the team "blow it up" underestimates the likelihood that the players traded for develop into stars.

What's the alternative to "blow it up"? Sign Vlad for 10/$250 (a team needs an identity), explore trades for Bo, but don't accept a return that emphasizes his 2024 performance; try for Soto or Bregman. If neither bite, get a bat, any bat. Add the best starter the team can in FA.

In short, windows of contention for the WS made more sense when there was one WC in a league with less parity. No one here ought to be as surprised by the Red Sox, Twins, or Mariners winning the WS as is implied by the Fangraphs odds of winning the WS are right now.
92-93 - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#448902) #
Vladdy has made 44MM so far, and projects for around 25MM in 2025. That's 69MM. A 10 year, 300MM contract before he ever played a game would have been an utter disaster.

Teams should be trying to make the playoffs under the new format. Championship-calibre rosters don't win the World Series more often than playoff-calibre rosters.
uglyone - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#448903) #
Plausible Best Possible Lineup

Using this year's stats only:

* 1. 2B Horwitz 98pa, .449obp, 168wrc+, 8.0war/650pa
* 2. 1B Guerrero 390pa, .373obp, 138wrc+, 3.0war/650pa
* 3. SS Falefa 281pa, .338obp, 117wrc+, 4.6war/650pa
* 4. DH Turner 290pa, .352obp, 111wrc+, 0.7war/650pa
* 5. LF Schneider 286pa, .308obp, 101wrc+, 3.1war/650pa
* 6. C Jansen 198pa, .307obp, 97wrc+, 3.3war/650pa
* 7. RF Springer 343pa, .310obp, 94wrc+, 2.3war/650pa
* 8. CF Varsho 310pa, .285obp, 93wrc+, 3.8war/650pa
* 9. 3B Clement 175pa, .266obp, 84wrc+, 0.7war/650pa

* X. C Kirk 173pa, .295obp, 93wrc+, 3.0war/650pa
* (X. UT Biggio 170pa, .319obp, 75wrc+, 0.8war/650pa)
* X. IF Bichette 323pa, .279obp, 72wrc+, 0.6war/650pa
* (X. PH Vogelbach 79pa, .278obp, 69wrc+, -2.5war/650pa)
* X. OF Kiermaier 180pa, .227obp, 47wrc+, 0.0war/650pa

* X. IF Jimenez 6pa, .667obp, 253wrc+, 10.8war/650pa
* X. IF Martinez 3pa, .333obp, 91wrc+, -21.7war/650pa
* X. C Serven 13pa, .231obp, 10wrc+, -5.0war/650pa
* X. UT Barger 63pa, .177obp, 1wrc+, -7.2war/650pa
* X. PH Votto 0pa,



Using Past 1 Calendar Year Stats

* 1. 2B Horwitz 132pa, .417obp, 153wrc+, 6.4war/650pa
* 2. 1B Guerrero 696pa, .358obp, 127wrc+, 2.1war/650pa
* 3. LF Schneider 427pa, .349obp, 126wrc+, 4.4war/650pa
* 4. C Jansen 309pa, .327obp, 114wrc+, 4.4war/650pa
* 5. DH Turner 548pa, .339obp, 108wrc+, 0.5war/650pa
* 6. SS Falefa 436pa, .328obp, 101wrc+, 3.1war/650pa
* 7. 3B Clement 219pa, .290obp, 97wrc+, 2.1war/650pa
* 8. RF Springer 647pa, .317obp, 96wrc+, 1.7war/650pa
* 9. CF Varsho 546pa, .287obp, 93wrc+, 3.3war/650pa

* (X. PH Vogelbach 201pa, .318obp, 105wrc+, 0.0war/650pa)
* (X. UT Biggio 358pa, .357obp, 99wrc+, 2.0war/650pa)
* X. C Kirk 375pa, .320obp, 93wrc+, 4.0war/650pa
* X. IF Bichette 530pa, .294obp, 84wrc+, 1.3war/650pa
* X. PH Votto 183pa, .301obp, 81wrc+, -1.4war/650pa
* X. OF Kiermaier 354pa, .263obp, 69wrc+, 1.5war/650pa

* X. IF Jimenez 6pa, .667obp, 253wrc+, 10.8war/650pa
* X. IF Martinez 3pa, .333obp, 91wrc+, -21.7war/650pa
* X. OF Lukes 8pa, .375obp, 127wrc+, 8.1war/650pa
* X. C Serven 13pa, .231obp, 10wrc+, -5.0war/650pa
* X. UT Barger 63pa, .177obp, 1wrc+, -7.2war/650pa



Using Fangraphs' Combined Depth Chart Projections

* 1. 2B Horwitz 181pa, .362obp, 119wrc+, 4.0war/650pa
* 2. 1B Guerrero 298pa, .361obp, 140wrc+, 3.7war/650pa
* 3. SS Bichette 285pa, .321obp, 114wrc+, 3.6war/650pa
* 4. LF Schneider 227pa, .327obp, 112wrc+, 2.9war/650pa
* 5. C Jansen 168pa, .315obp, 112wrc+, 3.9war/650pa
* 6. DH Turner 233pa, .336obp, 111wrc+, 1.4war/650pa
* 7. RF Springer 267pa, .324obp, 111wrc+, 2.9war/650pa
* 8. CF Varsho 273pa, .297obp, 104wrc+, 3.3war/650pa
* 9. 3B Clement 107pa, .302obp, 95wrc+, 1.8war/650pa

* X. C Kirk 132pa, .341obp, 112wrc+, 5.4war/650pa
* (X. PH Vogelbach 66pa, .335obp, 112wrc+, 2.0war/650pa)
* X. PH Votto 58pa, .308obp, 94wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* (X. UT Biggio 101pa, .319obp, 94wrc+, 1.3war/650pa)
* X. IF Falefa 178pa, .313obp, 93wrc+, 2.2war/650pa
* X. OF Kiermaier 160pa, .284obp, 82wrc+, 2.0war/650pa)

* X. OF Lukes 7pa, .324obp, 101wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* X. IF Jimenez 43pa, .323obp, 94wrc+, 1.5war/650pa
* X. UT Barger 80pa, .302obp, 94wrc+, 0.8war/650pa
* X. IF Martinez 86pa, .285obp, 93wrc+, 1.5war/650pa
* X. C Serven 8pa, .248obp, 58wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
greenfrog - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#448905) #
Thereís no need to get pedantic about exact dollar figures. The point is that signing Vladdy to a 10-year contract at the outset of his MLB career, Longoria-style, would be far preferable in terms of risk mitigation as compared to signing him to a massive Soto- or Ohtani-length FA contract starting in 2026. His best seasons are likely going to be from his early 20s to his early 30s. Paying him premium dollars through his late 30s would likely constitute the real disaster.
92-93 - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#448906) #
Yes, the difference between 6/18 and 10/300 is clearly being pedantic.

I still don't understand how this front office hasn't managed to sign a single one of their homegrown talents to a long-term deal. It's like they prefer paying free agents.
John Northey - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#448911) #
I think the team prefers signing near 'sure things' vs speculation. How many here pushed for long term deals for other kids? Manoah for example? Or Travis Snider? Or Brett Lawrie? Or any number of other kids who flopped shortly after. Even the deal signed for Roy Halladay looked like a terrible bust after Ash did it - he blew up with his 10.49 ERA shortly after but that contract might be why the Jays put the time and effort into fixing him rather than condemning him to AAA long term where he might never have figured it out or been dumped before he did (this was Ash after all who rarely made a decent deal).

I suspect in 10 years many of the long term deals signed recently with kids will look like very bad choices (cough... Wander Franco) while others might look great (many of the Atlanta ones are on that path - even with Acuna having a bad year - 103 OPS+, 0.1 bWAR after an 8.5 year last year). We notice the great ones but forget the flops. Some contracts for guys with 0 minutes of ML time are Jackson Chourio (8 year $82 mil 1.4 bWAR so far, signed through 2031), Scott Kingery ($24 mil - 0.5 bWAR and nearly done), Luis Robert ($50 mil 13.5 WAR, signed through 2025), Eloy Jimenez ($43 mil 5.2 bWAR, final year negative WAR this year), etc. None of these are for insane amounts a team can't absorb. Some for 2 years of service are Bobby Witt Jr. ($288,777,777 mil 11 years, with options could go to 2037 - looks like a winner), Fernando Tatis ($340 mil 14 years, sweet, 14.1 bWAR so far signed through 2034). This is the sweet spot it seems. I'm kind of surprised those 2 signed those deals as they are kids of ML'ers like Vlad & Bo but still were willing to sign for less than I think they could've gotten had they waited. I'm wondering how many heard their dad's talk about the headaches from some ML teams and how moving sucked and decided 'screw it I want to stay here forever'. Vlad appears to feel that way, but Bo never has expressed a feeling that direction (IIRC he indicated he wants to find out what he is worth on the open market and felt it was his responsibility to future players to do so). 10 year $250 mil each would work fine in today's MLB economics, but both would want $30+ per I suspect. Bo might sign a 3 year deal at $25 per in an attempt to rebuild value after this disaster season but I doubt it.
Gerry - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#448912) #
The only option for this FO is to contend next season. A rebuild would hasten a new GM, if not a president too.
Glevin - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#448915) #
"I still don't understand how this front office hasn't managed to sign a single one of their homegrown talents to a long-term deal. It's like they prefer paying free agents."

I mean it's only worth it if players are young top prospects /young players and usually not pitchers so Jays have had like two candidates for long term deals in Vlad/Bo. Vlad and Bo are both children of multimillionaires and both are plenty rich themselves. Neither had any incentive to give a discount of any sort.
92-93 - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#448917) #
Kirk? Jansen? Manoah? Heck, they have been reluctant to take risk even on guys that werenít homegrown like Chapman, Hernandez, and Varsho (so far). And where are the smaller deals for guys like Schneider (and Biggio) that provide the player some guaranteed money and gives the team cost control and team-friendly options in case he pans out?

The argument that Vlad/Bo come from rich families and werenít interested falls flat for me, especially since Guerrero has said on the record that heís interested but he hasnít really been offered anything. Rich parents tend not to just hand money away to their children, and Mr. Guerrero has at least 8 kids that we know about. Thereís a team philosophy at play here, one they didnít employ in Cleveland.
scottt - Monday, July 08 2024 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#448921) #
They extended Berrios, which is a good move.
They didn't extend Romano, Mayza, Stripling, Robbie Ray, Shoemaker, Taijuan Walker, Aaron Sanchez...

It's hard to find fault.
In an alternate universe in which AA doesn't extend Ricky Romero, the Jays might have the money to sign another starter in the 2013-15 window.

Some players want to become free agents and not sign extensions.
I don't understand why that needs to be explained.

The real question might be why players are so eager to leave.
We know that KK and IKF got more money than any other teams offered.
We don't know what players turned them down and signed elsewhere for less.


uglyone - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 01:11 AM EDT (#448926) #
5yrs to a 30yr old seems like a much worse investment than 10yrs to a 25yr old.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 04:38 AM EDT (#448927) #
How about Prince Fielderís 9-year contract? Was that a good one?

Devers got 11 years. That could be the starting point for Vladdy in terms of contract length. Though Shapiro has done some unusual stuff like extending Grichuk for five years and front-loading the contract, so itís not clear what he is envisioning in a Vladdy extebsion.
Joe - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 08:00 AM EDT (#448930) #
The Astros, Cubs and Orioles are the only teams that successfully rebuilt.
The Orioles don't belong in that discussion yet, IMO. They're approximately as successful as the 2021 Blue Jays, with 1 playoff appearance and 0 playoff wins, with the difference being they won the division. (Their fan also had 3 extra years of agony.)

Their future looks bright, yes, but until it's sustained or they win the hunk of metal, I don't think you can call it successful.

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 08:33 AM EDT (#448932) #
I don't know, Joe.  The Orioles won 83 games in 2022, 101 in 2023 and are on pace to win 102 in 2024.  If they do that, it would be a successful rebuild particularly bearing in mind the amount of young talent the club has. 

Mike Elias became the Orioles' GM after 2018.  In the 2019 draft, he drafted Rutschman 1-1, but then also Gunnar Henderson in the 2nd round, Kyle Stowers and Joey Ortiz (who he traded with DL Hall for Corbin Burnes this past off-season).  Fabulous draft.  In the 2020 abbreviated draft, he had 6 picks. Three of them were Heston Kjerstad, Jordan Westburg and Coby Mayo.  Excellent draft so far.  The guts of what probably is the best club in baseball can be found in these drafts.  Yes, it helped to draft 1st and 2nd, but there was a lot more to it than that. 
Katie - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#448934) #
Kirk? Jansen? Manoah? Heck, they have been reluctant to take risk even on guys that werenít homegrown like Chapman, Hernandez, and Varsho (so far).

This. I don't think this front office has signed a single player with under 3 years of major league service time to anything but yearly contracts. We can debate the wisdom of various players in retrospect, but I find it very odd that not a single player has signed.

The Jays traded a Top 5 prospect in baseball for Varsho, so obviously they really believe in him, but there was no attempt to lock him up. Jansen's been a great hitter when healthy the last 3 seasons (prior to 2024), but there's been no attempt to lock him up. No attempt to sign Manoah. And so on.

While some of these deals may backfire, these deals have the potential to give you the biggest cost/benefit reward and the ones that backfire often don't backfire too badly, as the amount is absorbable and many players may have already established a baseline of performance that results in decent paydays in their latter years of team control. Plus, many of these deals result in additional years of team control, often in the form of team options (which is of course another benefit to the team).

pooks137 - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#448936) #
Though Shapiro has done some unusual stuff like extending Grichuk for five years and front-loading the contract, so itís not clear what he is envisioning in a Vladdy extebsion.

I was going to mention the Grichuk extension because it doesn't get discussed much.

The front office gave him a 5-year deal a year after acquiring him and when he had at least two years of control left.

I recall that people were puzzles with the extension and length from the get-go.

Grichuk was coming out of his age-26 season with an OPS+ that year of 117 due to 26 HRs but red flags with an OBP of 300 and multiple seasons with similar on-base below that.

The extension seemed to be banking on that Grichuk, similar to their hope for Varsho, would continue to develop into the 3 WAR+ player with an OBP above .320 that he's showed glimpses of several years earlier in St. Louis.

But the deal turned out to be a bad one from the day it was signed as Grichuk regressed instead of improved, being a well-paid second-division starter the whole time.

92-93 - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#448939) #
Hopefully the Grichuk extension, which some of us pointed out was unnecessary/bad right from the start, has not made the front office gunshy.
Joe - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#448941) #
Mike, I was mostly reacting to what scottt had chosen as their qualifications for a successful rebuild, which seemed to be "winning a world series, plus the Orioles."

I'm totally open to the idea that the Orioles have rebuilt successfully ó†I bet it feels great to be a fan in Baltimiore right now! ó†but then I think you have to include a lot more teams in those ranks, including Atlanta, the Phillies, Seattle, and yes, the Jays.

Petey Baseball - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#448948) #
The Swanson news is tough. He had shown some signs of life in AAA recently, and it would have been nice for him personally to pitch himself back into the majors this summer. The Jays razor thin playoff hopes depend on the bullpen being very good from here on out, and now they can pretty much scratch the possibility of a lucky break in the form of Swanson returning to form.
scottt - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#448950) #
They shopped Kirk around instead of Moreno and there were not takers. Same with Jansen.
Manoah signed with Boras, not extension possible, thankfully.

Michael - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#448960) #
"Mike Elias became the Orioles' GM after 2018."

If you compare from 2019 to today:

Blue Jays 412 - 386 12th best in MLB
Orioles 372 - 426 19th best in MLB

From 2020 to today:
Blue Jays 345 - 291 8th best in MLB
Orioles 318 - 318 17th best in MLB

From 2021 to today:
Blue Jays 313 - 263 9th best in MLB
Orioles 293 - 283 16th best in MLB

So even counting the success that the Orioles have had the past couple of years, that doesn't offset the terrible teams they had, and yes that makes a huge difference in drafting, draft positioning, and building the team.

If you continue the list:

From 2022 to today:
Orioles 241 - 173 4th best in MLB
Blue Jays 222 - 192 11th best in MLB

From 2023 to today:
Orioles 158 - 94 1st best in MLB
Blue Jays 130 - 122 14th best in MLB

This season:
Orioles 57 - 33 2nd best in MLB
Blue Jays 41 - 49 25th best in MLB

So, yes, I think you can say based on the last 2+ years the Orioles are now one of the top teams in baseball, but that is after a long struggle of very bad for several years after the 2018 date of GM join. And the Jays have been a playoff caliber organization on average during this time period - other than this year - from that list, generally one of the top 10 orgs in baseball across that time. That doesn't make them the best org in baseball across that time, but it does make them comfortably above average. Going back for the full Atkins tenure they are 650-634 and 12th best org in that time period (about 8 wins a season better than Baltimore across this time period, as Baltimore is 23rd best at 583-701). The Red Sox and Rays are about 50 wins ahead of the Jays for this time period (699-584 7th best and 703-581 6th best respectively) while the Yankees are about 90 wins better (739-547 3rd best). Given much of the time there's been an unbalanced schedule the AL East also beats up on each other so the teams are likely all a bit better than their record suggest. Top AL team in this time period is Astros at 761-523 2nd best and top MLB team is the Dodgers at an incredible 808 - 478 or a 0.628 pace (i.e. about 102 W in a 162 season on average!) across this about 8 years.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 09 2024 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#448965) #
If you compare from 2019 to today, how many payroll dollars have the Blue Jays spent to produce that W-L record, compared to the O's over the same timeframe?
John Northey - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 01:14 AM EDT (#448982) #
greenfrog - fairly secondary. The O's were not trying to win from 2019-2022 (given they were 4th or 5th each year, losing 110 in 2021) but lets see using opening day payrolls...
  • Jays: 21-20-13-11-7-6 = $907,649,635, 3 playoff appearance
  • O's: 27-29-27-30-29-26 = $358,618,564 1 playoff appearance
Jays now are at the end of that competitive window it seems, with the disaster this year while the O's are just starting theirs. Year 1 of the O's window 0 wins in playoffs just like the Jays. We'll see what this year produces.

I'm glad the Jays didn't go the O's route, which is no longer allowed - 100+ losses 3 times in 4 years (no one knows what 2020 would've been). Jays do that now and they'd get a top 6 pick, 7th the next, top 6 the next, etc. Jays are a revenue sharing payer (pay out to the other clubs, vs Tampa being a net welfare team). Baltimore as a revenue sharing getter (ala Tampa) would be top 6 twice, 7th once, top 6 twice, etc. I found a source for the scores used here which has the Jays at 115 (7th biggest market, biggest single team market) where 100 = average - over that you pay into the fund, below you collect. Boston/Texas/Atlanta are pretty much the dividing line (102-97 scores).
bpoz - Wednesday, July 10 2024 @ 07:58 AM EDT (#448990) #
Thanks John N. A very intellectual post.

Baltimore spent a lot less than Toronto in payroll. Let us call that expenses. Then there are revenues or income. The difference is profit/loss. I don't know who has bigger profits or by how much. In this exercise i would call revenue giving an expense and also the luxury tax payments expense. The revenue receiving I would call income.

The Jays are further complicated by being owned by a media company. IMO this could very well have unknown decisions and policies which we know nothing about.
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