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You can teach me lots of lessons
You can bring me lots of gold
But you just can't live in Texas
If you don't have lots of soul


The Rangers didn't expect to be playing out the string, either. But here we are.


Well, they've made some very large investments in elderly starting pitchers that haven't quite worked out as planned. Max Scherzer and Jakob deGrom are both being paid more than $40 million dollars this season. They just received their first start from deGrom; Scherzer has been able to take the mound 9 times this season (2-4, 3.95.)  Jon Gray makes a comparatively modest $13 million, but he's done for the year, having been plagued by groin and foot problems that limited him to 19 starts. Andrew Heaney has done a decent job, his 5-14 WL record notwithstanding and Nathan Eovaldi has been fine. They traded FA signee Michael Lorenzen at the deadline, and young Jack Leiter hasn't yet begun to live up to his pedigree.

As for the bullpen - Kirby Yates has been superb and David Robertson has been fine. Yates will be a free agent this winter and Robertson - who turns 40 next spring - has a mutual option for next year.

And yet - the pitching hasn't been the biggest problem. Overall, they've gone from a little btter than league average to a little worse. The real collapse has come from the offense. The 2023 Rangers scored 881 Runs (5.44 per Game), the most in the AL; this year's crew is averaging 4.15 per Game, which is tenth best in the league, just behind your Blue Jays. They've lost more than 200 Runs from one year to the next. What happened?

Many, many things. Obvioualy. You don't lose 200 runs of offense because one or two guys had a bad year. You lose 200 runs because pretty much everybody took a step backward. The one exception is first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, who is more or less duplicating his 2023 season.

Marcxus Semien was very, very good a year ago - this year he's been merely average.

Corey Seager, their best player, was having himself another fine year until a sports hernia ended his season. But he had the best season of his excellent career in 2023 when he was the MVP runner-up.

Josh Jung had a very nice rookie season in 2023, but he's missed more than 100 games this time around with a wrist injury.

Leody Taveras in centre field has lost 40 points in BAVG, which is the largest part of his game.

Finally, right fielder Adolis Garcia was an All-Star a year ago, and none of the Rangers has fallen harder than he has.

Wait - one more! Even Mitch Garver, so productive as their primary DH, has collapsed. Garver conveniently did his collapsing in Seattle so it didn't hurt the Rangers, but his main replacement, Robbie Grossman, hasn't come close to matching what Garver provided a year ago.

Matchups

Tue 17 Sep - Bassitt (10-13, 4.20) vs Eovaldi (11-8, 3.67)
Wed 18 Sep - Francis (8-4, 3.50) vs Bradford (5-3, 3.97)
Thu 19 Sep - Gausman (12-11, 4.02) vs Rocker (0-1, 2.25)


Blue Jays at Texas, September 17-19 | 72 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Ducey - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#452681) #
I think the Jays could make Don Mattingly available to boost their offense.

The Rangers obviously are not throwing around enough clichés about "doing damage".
SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#452683) #
Jays have claimed Nick Robertson off waivers.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#452685) #

Bo Bichette has been reinstated off IL (right calf strain)
• Steward Berroa has been recalled
• Will Wagner has been placed on 60 day IL (left knee inflammation)
• Daulton Varsho has been placed on IL (shoulder)
(1/2)

— Hazel Mae (@thehazelmae) September 17, 2024
dalimon5 - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#452686) #
Time for me to tune back into Blue Jays baseball as they now have two! exciting players I can watch.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#452687) #

Daulton Varsho (IL- right shoulder) saw Dr. Keith Meister here in Texas yesterday. Varsho told me he's going to have surgery as soon as he can in order to be ready for spring training 2025.

"There's a rotator cuff issue at the front of my shoulder that's been bugging me."

— Hazel Mae (@thehazelmae) September 17, 2024
GabrielSyme - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#452688) #
Very rarely can an injury report be good news, but if Varsho has been suffering from a nagging shoulder problem, he might come back stronger following surgery. Lots of ifs in that sentence, but his contact quality has been lower this season, and this might be a partial or complete explanation.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#452689) #
Well, that sucks, does explain why both have been out of the lineup though. Wagner's final 2024 ML stats are 86 PA 305/337/451 123 OPS+ 125 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR/bWAR 1 DRS. Varsho's 214/293/407 97 OPS+ 4.9 bWAR 99 wRC+ 3.2 fWAR 28 DRS (16 CF 12 LF 0 RF). Wagner has a leg up for 2025 but needs to come to spring training at 100% and needs to work on strike zone judgement (4.7% BB% is way too low).
uglyone - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#452690) #
At least it cleans up the roster slots for the rest of the year. Though I wish it was Roden not Berroa (even acknowledging the need for some CF defense with Varsho out).

* CF Loferpido
* RF Springer
* LF Schneider
* 3B Clement
* SS Bichette
* 2B Jimenez
* 1B Horwitz
* DH Guerrero
* C Kirk

* UT Barger
* OF Lukes
* OF Berroa
* IF DeLosSantos
* C Heineman


though maybe they let Roden finish off the AAA season this week and then get a cup of coffee for the last week of the year.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#452691) #
As to the Rangers - quite the drop from a WS win. At the deadline they traded a 32 year old starter (Michael Lorenzen) for a 26 year old reliever (Walter Pennington), and 2 minor leaguers for Andrew Chafin (-0.1 bWAR, free agent post 2024), and 2 minor leaguers for Carson Kelly (-0.4 bWAR, free agent post 2024). So they sorta went for it but boy did they pick the wrong guys to get. Going into July 30th they were 52-55 3 1/2 out of the AL West lead. Since they went 19-24 and fell to 10 games out in the West and 8 out of the playoffs. Ugh.

The opportunity to win was there but they tried to be kinda-sorta in it and it flopped, now they've lost 4 minor leaguers for 2 guys who are free agents soon and didn't help them in 2024. Much prefer how the Jays acted - went 21-21 post deadline, 2nd best in the AL East (wow, the O's are sub-500 since the deadline, Rays & Red Sox both 19-25 since then).
Nigel - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#452692) #
I don't think the injury explains much of Varsho's season at the plate. I'm pretty sure that Schneider said that its been bothering him for a few weeks not a few months.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#452693) #
hmm these seem to be kinda serious unfortunately.

Blue Jays are sending Will Wagner to Cleveland where he’ll have his knee examined. As of now hope is it’s not too serious

Correcting here: Daulton Varsho (surgery on R shoulder) will likely have his recovery extend into spring 2025. From there, Jays will see how soon he’s ready

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) September 17, 2024
uglyone - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#452694) #
Varsho's had a solid year at the plate though?

* Season: 99wrc+
* Career: 96wrc+
* Projected: 104wrc+

though he was scuffling the past couple weeks with a 41wrc+.
soupman - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#452695) #
Eovaldi has a vesting option if he pitches into the 5th inning tonight. (req. 300ip over 23/34)
Ducey - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#452696) #
"Time for me to tune back into Blue Jays baseball as they now have two! exciting players I can watch."

I didnt think Nick Robertson would engender this much excitement
Glevin - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#452697) #
Though I wish it was Roden not Berroa (even acknowledging the need for some CF defense with Varsho out)."

Roden deserves it but needs to be added to 40-man. Doesn't really make sense to do that just give him an extra week of MLB PAs.
Gerry - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#452698) #
Bo is listening to his father again...best news of the day.
Super Bluto - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#452699) #
Looks like Bichette gained a bit of weight in his time away.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#452700) #
ah yes 40-man roster rules. my bad. i never bother looking at the stuff because it makes me angry.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#452701) #
Schneider bandwagon is re-opened for business.
Ducey - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#452702) #
Looks like the Luis Frias station wagon is headed out of town.

Man. Decent stuff but no clue how to locate.
electric carrot - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#452703) #
Game summary:
Bassitt got bashed
Nance got pantsed
and Frias got fried.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 17 2024 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#452704) #
yeah spend all the offseason money on pitching.

i have more than enough interesting hitters to look forward to.

the pitching needs an injection of a good 7-8 arms from outside the org tho.
Kelekin - Wednesday, September 18 2024 @ 02:07 AM EDT (#452705) #
"Bo is listening to his father again...best news of the day."

Not often you hear his father and good news mentioned in the same sentence these days.
scottt - Wednesday, September 18 2024 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#452706) #
The rotation is set and the pen needs a couple of high leverage arms.They still need a clean up hitter.

Schneider is showing that he's streaky.
Pitchers will adjust to him back and then what?
bpoz - Wednesday, September 18 2024 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#452707) #
D Schneider's bat showing some life. Very streaky.
lexomatic - Wednesday, September 18 2024 @ 08:46 AM EDT (#452708) #
Hopefully Schneider can adjust more quickly next time.

That was a horribly pitched game. Glad the offer se is still working with Bo.
85bluejay - Wednesday, September 18 2024 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#452710) #
Bell has sold its stake in MLSE to Rogers - Ed Rogers is now the God of Toronto professional Sports - wonder if they eventually fold the Blue Jays into MLSE.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 18 2024 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#452711) #
oh god that's depressing. MLSE was bad enough as it but now little eddie gets to put shapiros in charge of everything.
scottt - Wednesday, September 18 2024 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#452712) #
Baltimore is 3-7 in their last 10 as they're fighting to win the division. Yankees are 7-3 despite having only 2 good hitters.
Cleveland is only 1 game behind the Yankees for top team in the AL.Detroit is only 1.5 games behind Minnesota. Seattle is 3 games behind. Boston is 5.
At 72-79, the Jays are tied with Texas for 8th worse team.
Colorado, at 71-80, is the only losing team with a better record (6-4) than the Jays (5-5) over the last 10.
scottt - Wednesday, September 18 2024 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#452713) #
It looks to me like Schneider has stopped swinging at pitches away to focus on pitches he can pull, even if they are inside.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, September 18 2024 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#452714) #
I have no issue with Rogers other than the Shapirification they have allowed of the baseball team. In fact I think this will make it easier for Rogers to run the teams as a reckless billionaire owner which is always good for budgets. I really didn't like the way the unions and investment fund companies ran the Maple Leafs and you can see the huge improvement in the competitiveness in the team once Bell and Rogers took over. To me Bell is more of the investment type of company compared to Rogers ever since Ed took over.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, September 18 2024 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#452715) #
"Down the road, we don’t see why the Jays couldn’t be integrated within the MLSE roster and the organization could then be IPOed at an even higher valuation than today’s valuation metrics,” said analyst Maher Yaghi at Scotiabank in a report.

“We believe this transaction bolsters Rogers’ existing sports assets (including the Blue Jays) providing support for an eventual crystallization of these assets over the medium-term,” said analyst Drew McReynolds at RBC Capital Markets in a report on Wednesday."

Takeaways:

Bell still has broadcast rights for 20 years

Bell needed to pay down debt immediately to hold value

Rogers paid more than 4X as much to acquire Shaw ... puts into perspective how much money these telecom giants generate (Shaw is much smaller than Bell and Rogers yet worth at least 4X more than the richest hockey franchise, Toronto Raptors, MLSE and Argos combined)

Rogers is saving half a billion from their NHL deal ending
John Northey - Wednesday, September 18 2024 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#452720) #
Doubt the Rogers buyout of MLSE will mean much of anything - all are run by corporations, and with Bell having TV rights for 20 years the incentive is drastically reduced for Rogers to make the Leafs & Raptors competitive. With the Jays they get 100% of the TV revenue increases when the team wins, 100% of the loss when they lose. Jays & Raptors are national brands, Leafs just Ontario, and not all of it - yeah, they have fans across the country but not without competition (trust me, wearing a Leaf jersey in Winnipeg is asking for trouble).

For the Jays it will be a minimal effect - expect to see Jays at Leaf & Raptor games more often, same with Leafs & Raptors at Jays games with some cross-promotion going on (maybe a Leaf trying to teach Vlad how to skate, or a member of the Raptors stealing an Uncrustable from Springer - holding it a foot over his head maybe).

In the end each club has to maximize profit for Rogers - for the Jays that is via maximizing TV revenues (higher ratings = more $$ for SportsNet), for the Leafs & Raptors it'll be by maximizing tickets sold and other profit areas outside of TV (assuming Bell's deal is locked in without rating based jumps/drops in rights fees). Wonder if we'll see a Leafs or Raptors game in the Dome during the winter to max out seat sales or something.

As to the Leafs - they could lose every game and still sell out the arena, their brand is that popular still. The Raptors seem to do the same with attendance (19k+ per game for years now), vs the Jays who need to be a contender to get sellouts. Not sure if other areas of revenue are maxed out for the Leafs when they suck vs when they win, but the Raptors without a doubt got far more attention when winning vs losing.

To me, as a Jays fan who cares a little bit about the Raptors and stopped caring about the Leafs a couple decades ago (the lost year+ got me away from them, my daughter cheering on the Jets kept me away from the Leafs) this means little - just some cross-promotional crap and that's about it. It does open up opportunities for whoever run the Jays to move to other sports which could attract better talent to be president/GM/etc. here (a chance to be the overseer of 3 ML franchises would be appealing to many in the ego based sports area).
Glevin - Wednesday, September 18 2024 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#452722) #
I love how Canada has 3 companies that run everything. Great for all of us. Don't think it will make difference for the Jays though. Great to see Schneider back hitting and hopefully something has changed. In the 6 months of the season, he has had 3 months with WRC+ of more than 135 and 3 months with WRC+ under 65. In August 2023, he had a WRC+ of 282 and in August 2024 it was -27. I can't think of many players who have been both the best hitter in baseball and the worst hitter in baseball over the period of a year.

The difference between having 4th best odds for #1 pick and and 13th best is 4 losses.

Nigel - Wednesday, September 18 2024 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#452723) #
Schneider is making Lourdes Gurriel look like a metronome.
John Northey - Wednesday, September 18 2024 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#452726) #
Interesting to note the Jays are up to 6 guys with 10+ HR this year, but just Vlad has 20+. Springer the only other one who might reach 20 (at 19 right now), next is Schneider at 13 (although on this hot streak who knows?)...OK, actually Varsho is next at 18 but he is out for the rest of this season. Last year 8 guys had 10+ with 4 cracking 20 - 4 of those 8 are gone (Belt, Chapman, Jansen, and Merrifield). 2022 had 7 crack 10 HR, just 8 in 2021 (felt like more), 2020 saw just 3 with 3 more within 2 HR (Vlad/Biggio/Tellez). 2019 saw 13 guys crack 10+ (so obviously having a ton of power a lot of wins) led by Grichuk at 31. 2018 was 11, 2017 was 7, 2016 had 8, 2015 7 as did 2014 and 2013 and 2012, 2011 finally has just 6 like this year. To get to 5 or less over a full season you need to go back to 1994 (OK, that was just over 100 games that year), OK, actually to 1991 (division winner) with just Joe Carter, Kelly Gruber, John Olerud, and Devon White having 10+ HR (Alomar just 1 shy).

The fewest with 10+ was in 1978 (Rico Carty & John Mayberry) and 1981 (again a short year - Mayberry & Otto Velez) with just 2 each. 2019 was the record at 13 which is beaten by just 1 team in MLB history - the 2019 Yankees with 14, next is the 2018 Yanks with 12. 627 teams had 0 with 10+ HR (most pre-Ruth). Since Ruth went to the Yankees and showed how big HR can be 69 teams had 0 10 HR guys. Most recent is the Cardinals in 2020, 3 teams in 1981 (Cleveland, Minny, and San Diego), and Houston 1979 the last to do it in a full season (led with 9 by José Cruz Sr, father of the ex-Jay). As pathetic as the White Sox are this year, they still have 6 guys with 10+, just 4 on the Nationals, 5 on the Marlins (3 no longer on the team).

Huh, that was fun to look up. For speed the Jays have 3 with 10+ SB (Springer, Clement, & Varsho), only twice with 0 cracking 10 SB (1978 and 2020). For doubles the Jays have 12 with 10+, record for the Jays is 13 (5 times- 2003-2008-2011-2013-2019), so Loperfido needs to get 3 more doubles to tie the Jays record, or Lukes needs 7 - either does that I'll be impressed. Sadly IKF was 2 shy when traded, KK 3 short, Wagner 4 when hurt. Just one more minor thing to watch for as the season winds down.
Gerry - Wednesday, September 18 2024 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#452727) #
Dillon Tate up, Luis Frias down.
Ducey - Wednesday, September 18 2024 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#452730) #
"Luis Frias down"

Called it!
scottt - Wednesday, September 18 2024 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#452732) #
Turner managed only 6 HR. That's not great from your DH.
Bichette has hit 4.
Kirk has 5. Jansen hit 6.

Horwitz has 12. Clement has 11. Barger has 7 in 191 PA. Loperfido has 2. Wagner has 2. 
They need a guy who can hit 30 in the clean up spot.

Othani is at 48 HR and 48 SB,
The Jays as a team have 151 and 67.
Nigel - Wednesday, September 18 2024 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#452733) #
It’s getting harder and harder to make “Francis - Staff Ace” jokes.
Glevin - Wednesday, September 18 2024 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#452734) #
I'd be fine if they shut Francis down test of season. His velocity is starting to dip a lot from 93-94 to 90-91. It makes sense as he's thrown double the innings he did last year but don't want to risk injury in meaningless game in late September.
John Northey - Wednesday, September 18 2024 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#452735) #
Interesting - Baltimore just released Craig Kimbrel (well, put on waivers). He is a free agent anyways once the season ends but geez, they are paying him $12 mil plus a $1 mil buyout for next year. He was 23-6 in saves/blown (4 holds fwiw). 71 ERA+, 12.6 K/9 vs 5.3 BB/9 1.2 HR/9. At 36 (37 next year) do you look at signing him for 2025 or not? As always depends on price and if he is willing to be a setup man instead of a closer. At 440 saves he'll want to keep closing obviously as getting to 500 would give him a great shot at the HOF. Tell him Romano is our closer, but he'd be the #1 backup (thus getting a fair number of saves given Romano is coming back from injury, thus wouldn't be used on consecutive days until 100%) and he might go for it. Sign David Robertson too (has a mutual option - those never get picked up). Both should be good with 1 year deals, at most 2 and would jump the pen depth drastically and give us the K ability it lacks right now.

As to Francis - he pitched fine, if he did this a month ago we'd have been thrilled, but now we are spoiled and want 7+ with 1 H allowed, not just quality starts.
hypobole - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 12:47 AM EDT (#452736) #
No way the Jays should sign Kimbrel next year to a major league contract. From MLBTR: "Dating back to July 14, Kimbrel has been decimated for 25 runs (23 of them earned) in 18 innings of work. He’s yielded 23 hits (five of them homers), walked 17 batters"

Glevin - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#452739) #
No interest in Kimbrel. There are a TON of reliever free agents who I like better and I think Jays also likely make trade or two from surplus of position player depth.
85bluejay - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#452741) #
What have the Houston Astros done with Yusei kikuchi? Maybe the best deadline pickup? And what does it say about the Jays and their "pitching guru".
Chuck - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#452742) #
Kimbrel's Lazarus act to start the 2021 season helped convince some desperate teams that he might not yet be toast. They were wrong.
Chuck - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#452743) #
What have the Houston Astros done with Yusei kikuchi?

His FIP with Toronto was 3.66. With Houston it is 3.36. No need to call the Guinness people just yet.

bpoz - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#452744) #
I have to agree with a lot of Bauxites that the offense still does not score enough runs. Impossible to win with 0 runs scored and very hard to get the win with just 1 or 2 runs scored.

I expect the run scoring to improve next year with Kasevich and Roden earning a spot in the Opening day roster if they can do that.

A better pen will also be very valuable. Romano, Green, Swanson, Cabrera and Little is a nice 5 to begin with. Maybe add 1 or 2 from outside the org. There should be a lot of available relievers.

Inexperience is a weakness but we just have to live with that for next year and maybe the year after. Being lucky will be a big help as well.
Nigel - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#452745) #
Mostly agree Chuck - Kikuchi's performance in Houston has been better than in Toronto, but more marginally so than raw ERA might suggest. The one thing that they are doing/getting in Houston is more length from him. Kikuchi is averaging about an inning more per start in Houston - that's fairly significant.
SK in NJ - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#452746) #
At a quick glance, seems like Kikuchi is using his slider a lot more and his curveball a lot less with Houston. Performance-wise there's nothing drastically different aside from BABIP, which was .340 with the Jays and .230 with the Astros, which probably explains the ERA. I would definitely trust the Astros player/pitcher development over the Jays, but in terms of Kikuchi, I'm not sure his performance really makes the Jays look bad. The difference between Kikuchi in 2023-24 with the Jays versus what he was prior to that was a more significant performance shift.
uglyone - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#452747) #
Bo has a broken finger. No more baseball for him this year.

Clase is up. I'd like to see him in CF everyday the rest of the way to see what we have here.
uglyone - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#452748) #
Kikuchi's .230 babip is probably a nice bit of luck so far with houston.

It's not like Kikuchi never had 8gm stretches like this for the Jays. He did. more than once.
Marc Hulet - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#452750) #
I pointed it out previously but the best bullpens in baseball are not built through throwing money at expensive relievers - the teams with the best relievers build via milb free agency, waiver wire, trades for inexperienced arms, etc.

Relievers are too volatile to spend big money on and teams that have bulk options (including milb free agents invited to spring and milb starters turned relievers) are the way to go.

I think that's why the Jays' 40-man roster suddenly has so many recently-claimed relievers. They're looking to emulate the Guardians, Rays, etc.

If you look at my Jays org tracker and at the 2025 projected AAA tab, there are a ton of intriguing arms that could pop:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sBLsqrXhFNMw7mZKmXFgnuyZofbzZcEumECa9Szmrns/edit?gid=1405099165#gid=1405099165
Gerry - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#452752) #
It has been a season from hell for Bo.
Magpie - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#452753) #
Kikuchi's .230 babip is probably a nice bit of luck so far with houston.

Probably? Definitely! And Kikuchi's .344 babip was some very bad luck with Toronto.
Nigel - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#452754) #
If it's a choice between Loperfido and Clase for ABs, I'd rather see Loperfido get them. Clase is interesting but most of his minor and major league numbers suggest he's got more work to do. I'm not very high on Loperfido but I think trying to figure out if there's anything there is one of the bigger unanswered questions on the roster. Having another LH OF on the roster (whether Loperfido, Roden or someone else) is needed for next year.
Nigel - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#452755) #
17% of Kikuchi's flyballs in Houston have gone for HRs. That suggests he's also been a little unlucky too in Houston.
uglyone - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#452756) #
Marc - not necessarily expensive relievers, but in our situation if we have to throw a few mil at a reliever or three or four i don't mind so much.

but really i would spend everything we have on a good starter and then let that trickle-down effect help the bullpen.

Guys like Yariel, Bloss and eventually Manoah and Tiedemann could all be nice boosts to the pen if the front 5 SP are filled with solid to good innings eating types.
jerjapan - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#452757) #
I am thankful for Lukes and Francis, great stories in a tough year. 

Is it STILL true that you shake a tree and a reliever falls out? The sport has come so far in terms of developing players, I find myself questioning this received wisdom somewhat? 

Even if I'm wrong, this is the one year to spend on an elite, reliable reliever.  I agree that a starter could achieve a trickle-down effect which boosts our bullpen depth, but we need guys for critical innings if we are really going for a playoff spot, not middle relievers. 

This seems the offseason to target ceiling over floor.  We could contend if everything lines up, if Bo bounces back, etc.  If the dice-rolls don't materialize, we have another trade deadline like this past one. 

The offense has so many options - declining assets, if not properly managed - that I agree with Ugly.  Spend on pitching, mix and match the hitters.  
Target a volatile upside player or two who could hit in the middle of the lineup or pitch in the rotation (injured guys, international signings) in a best case scenario.  Or try for a hometown discount and resign Kikuchi / Jano.  Then spend the rest of the money on the pen.  The length of the contracts relievers get are a better fit with whatever window we may still have. 


hypobole - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#452758) #
Why was Gausman pulled after only 58 pitches?
Gerry - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#452759) #
Sore/tight back, he says he will be OK for his next start.
Magpie - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#452760) #
Apparently, before taking Gausman out, Schneider, Walker, and Bassitt all went up to him and said "You know you're pitching a no-hitter, right?"
Nigel - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#452761) #
Yeah, and right behind them Francis was cackling maniacally and flipping them the bird.
John Northey - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#452762) #
Kikuchi is just on one of his solid hot streaks and has the advantage of a pen that actually can hold a lead. 8 games, 48 IP = 6 IP per game, solid but nothing 'wow', solid going 5+ every single game though, last 3 were 7/6/7 IP. He allowed 1-4 runs each time, again solid but not WOW (3 times 1, twice 2, twice 3, once 4). His team went 8-0 in his starts so far (proof of a good pen and good offense)

Meanwhile the guy who replaced him in the Jays rotation - Francis - over 8 games threw 54 IP (6.75 per game) with a 1.67 ERA, under 6 IP just once (5 IP his first start), 6 IP twice, 7 3 times, 8 twice (both no hitters until he gave up a homer in the 9th). He allowed 0 runs twice, 1 3 times, 2 2 times, 3 once. Yet his team is just 4-4 in those starts, losing his last 3 starts despite his 2.70 ERA and 20 IP over those starts. Go figure - bad bullpen, inconsistent offense. Further proof of why W-L record is damn near meaningless. He is getting tired though - those last 3 starts he hit 4 guys, vs hitting just 1 in his previous 5. His WPA was 1.974 vs Kikuchi's 0.862 - both doing damn fine but no question Francis has been the better pitcher. Plus the Jays got 3 fine prospects.

As I've said before - this is a LOT like the 1987 Doyle Alexander to Detroit (where they went 11-0 in the regular season with him) for John Smoltz (still in the minors at the time) deal. Both teams get what they wanted, but a few years later one will clearly have won the deal despite the other getting into the playoffs.

As to the Jays now - fun game again, although that might be it for Gausman for 2024 (lower back tightness) although I suspect they pencil him in for his next start (just 9 to go so max 2 more starts for him, more likely 1 more start). Jays have the tiebreaker (4-2 vs Texas) so are in 9th from the bottom position with the Reds/Giants/Rays all having exactly 1 more win than the Jays. Jays are 4-6 vs the Rays with 3 this weekend in Florida. Next is 3 vs Boston (3 games ahead, Jays 4-6 vs them) in TO, and they finish with 3 vs Miami (2nd worst team in MLB). Funny, with 73 wins the Jays could finish over 500 if they win out those 9 games, or at 500 with an 8-1 finish. Back in July it looked like there was no way these last games could get them to 500, but it is possible, unlikely, but possible.
Magpie - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#452763) #
Ohtani did what?
electric carrot - Thursday, September 19 2024 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#452765) #
The Jays have a decent chance of finishing third in the East. I have to think that in the central and playing the White Sox a lot more, they would still be in the wildcard chase.
Michael - Friday, September 20 2024 @ 02:11 AM EDT (#452766) #
Maybe the Jays should have tried to sign that Ohtani guy? He seems ok. :)
Jonny German - Friday, September 20 2024 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#452768) #
Is it STILL true that you shake a tree and a reliever falls out?

It's still true that relievers are extremely unpredictable, yes.

I used the transaction tracker tool at MLBTradeRumors to find all the $25M+ deals that have been signed by relievers in the last 5 years. I found 9 players:
Rob Stephenson	Jan. 2024	LAA	3 years $33M	Injured, hasn’t pitched
Josh Hader	Jan. 2024	HOU	5 years $95M	Pitching well but not elite
Taylor Rogers	Dec. 2022	SF	3 years $33M	1 meh season 1 good season
Kenley Jansen	Dec. 2022	BOS	2 years $32M	Good
Rafael Montero	Nov. 2022	HOU	3 years $35M	Terrible both seasons so far
Robert Suarez	Nov. 2022	SD	5 years $46M	2 great seasons, 1 mediocre (injured)
Raisel Iglesias	Dec. 2021	LAA	4 years $58M	Excellent
Liam Hendriks 	Jan. 2021	CWS	4 years $54M	2 great seasons, 2 lost to illness
Drew Pomeranz	Nov. 2019	SD	4 years $34M	1-1/2 great seasons then injured

By my count that's 5 of 9 that have gone badly, 2 that might be okay (Rogers and Suarez), 1 that was decent (Jansen), and just 1 that was clearly a good investment (Iglesias).

For 1 of those guys you can sign 2 or 3 guys at the Yimi Garcia level. I think that's a much better risk-reward proposition. And I agree with the other posters that the recent stockpiling of waiver wire arms is a good move - the key with these guys is that they have options remaining so they can cycle in and out of the back of the pen.
Glevin - Friday, September 20 2024 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#452770) #
Definitely not a good idea to spend a ton on relievers. Astros (who seem to be a brilliant team at drafting and player development and the dumbest team at signing free agents, it's odd) have spent so much money on relievers the last few years and it has been money very poorly spent. The best thing to do is to develop your own relievers. the next best thing is to just cycle through relievers. Kirby Yates has been amazing this year after not having a positive WAR since 2019. Jeff Hoffman was useless until he was 30 and just started throwing harder. Erceg was a nothing middle reliever in Brewers system and became a stud reliever on Oakland.

Jays probably do need to spend to get at least 1 8th inning+ guy because they badly need it but there are a lot of guys out there (Hoffman, Scott, Martin, Robertson, Holmes, Estevez, Yimi, Yates, and probably a few more). You get one of those guys, sign another guy who throws hard you think can find a different level (like Stanek or Dominguez), invite a bunch of guys to camp, and Jays are probably set. A trade is also a possibility of course.
jerjapan - Friday, September 20 2024 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#452772) #
Nice list Jonny, but TBH, I'd be okay with a rate of return like that.  You have to assume relievers will get injured, and I'm not really sure of the salary implications of guys on the IL, but as we are seeing with Springer, if you sign a certain type of player, you build decline into the contract.  Those aren't albatross type contracts. 

Even Garcia took 3 years and 20+ million, if I remember correctly. 

It's true that the best orgs have the waiver wire / rule v / starter to reliever pipelines, but those get you the Saucedos and Thorntons of the world far more often than the Iglesias' or Hoffmans.
Even if retooling the pitching side of management yields dividends, it's going to take years to build that ideal Tampa style pen. 

I'm not particularly confident about any aspect of our pen, and so prefer adding to the top of the depth chart and pushing others down. 
Jonny German - Friday, September 20 2024 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#452774) #
Even Garcia took 3 years and 20+ million, if I remember correctly.

You remember incorrectly. His contract was 3 years and $16M, and he had to make 110 appearances the first 2 years to guarantee the 3rd.

It's true that the best orgs have the waiver wire / rule v / starter to reliever pipelines, but those get you the Saucedos and Thorntons of the world far more often than the Iglesias' or Hoffmans.


Hoffman is a prime example directly counter to your position. He signed a minor league deal with the Phillies after getting cut at the end of spring training in 2023. This year he’s making $2.2M.
jerjapan - Friday, September 20 2024 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#452779) #
Fair enough, but Garcia is still not chump change. And he was a mid-level bullpen signing.

Scoring a Hoffman is the platonic ideal of a good bullpen move.

But there is an opportunity cost in reserving 40 man spots for guys who are replacement level by definition, like Hoffman before he discovered his relief potential.

FA relievers can be highly tradable. Garcia got us our sixth ranked prospect.

If we are going to contend next year, and that seems to be the orgs goal, we need a reliable high leverage reliever.

I’m gonna guess we spend more on relievers than most fans expect this off-season.
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