Mr. President, Mr. Immigration Man
Let me in, sweetie, to your fair land
I’m Tampa bound, and Memphis too
Short Fat Fanny is on the loose
One last road series, and then homeward bound. To play out the string.
I want to talk about tonight's starter. You've probably noticed that Jose Berrios has already established a new career high with his 16 Wins. To this point he's also posted a career best 3.44 ERA. This has not been a typical Berrios season, but possibly not for the reasons you might expect. What strikes me is how much this current season has in common with the often ugly results we saw from him in 2022.
It's the Balls In Play, of course. Over his career, the opposition has hit .291 on their Balls In Play against Berrios, which is mighty close to the MLB average of .295 over this period. You can probably guess which two years deviate quite sharply from that established level - in 2022, the opposition hit a robust .329 on their Balls In Play, which in combination with the additional Home Runs helped generate that ugly 5.23 ERA. The HRs haven't hurt nearly so much this season when the opposition, for whatever reason, is hitting only .250 on their Balls In Play. Hence the career best ERA.
Another thing. I don't think Berrios is anybody's idea of a true ace. I think he's generally regarded as a quality starting pitcher who always gives his teams a chance to win. And they do. The Blue Jays have played .632 ball in his 108 starts for Toronto, a figure no one in franchise history even comes close to matching, and I'll bet no one even suspected that to be the case. But there have been 32 pitchers who have started 75 games for the Blue Jays, and here is how the team has fared in each man's starts:
Matchups
Fri 20 Sep - Berrios (16-9, 3.44) vs TBD
Sat 21 Sep - Rodriguez (1-6, 4.29) vs Bradley (6-11, 4.39)
Sun 22 Sep - Bassitt (10-13, 4.16) vs Baz (3-3, 4.21)
Let me in, sweetie, to your fair land
I’m Tampa bound, and Memphis too
Short Fat Fanny is on the loose
One last road series, and then homeward bound. To play out the string.
I want to talk about tonight's starter. You've probably noticed that Jose Berrios has already established a new career high with his 16 Wins. To this point he's also posted a career best 3.44 ERA. This has not been a typical Berrios season, but possibly not for the reasons you might expect. What strikes me is how much this current season has in common with the often ugly results we saw from him in 2022.
In his eight full seasons, since 2017, Berrios has generally been right around the league average in striking out hitters - the MLB average is 22.4% of the hitters, and Berrios' career mark is 22.7%. He's averaged at least 8.5 Ks per 9 innings over his career. This year, however, his K's were all the way down to 7.0 per 9. The only other time he failed to fan at least 8.5 per 9 over a full season was in 2022, when he was down to 7.9 per 9. Those are the only times he's failed to strike out at least 22% of the opposition, being down around 19% on both occasions.
Berrios has also been right around the MLB average in allowing Home Runs - 1.2 per 9 innings, a homer in 3.3% of the Plate Appearances. The two years when he gave up more long balls? That would be 2022 and 2024, iallowing a career high 29 HRs (so far) both times, 3.9% of opposition Plate Appearances..
Berrios has also been right around the MLB average in allowing Home Runs - 1.2 per 9 innings, a homer in 3.3% of the Plate Appearances. The two years when he gave up more long balls? That would be 2022 and 2024, iallowing a career high 29 HRs (so far) both times, 3.9% of opposition Plate Appearances..
What's going on?
It's the Balls In Play, of course. Over his career, the opposition has hit .291 on their Balls In Play against Berrios, which is mighty close to the MLB average of .295 over this period. You can probably guess which two years deviate quite sharply from that established level - in 2022, the opposition hit a robust .329 on their Balls In Play, which in combination with the additional Home Runs helped generate that ugly 5.23 ERA. The HRs haven't hurt nearly so much this season when the opposition, for whatever reason, is hitting only .250 on their Balls In Play. Hence the career best ERA.
Another thing. I don't think Berrios is anybody's idea of a true ace. I think he's generally regarded as a quality starting pitcher who always gives his teams a chance to win. And they do. The Blue Jays have played .632 ball in his 108 starts for Toronto, a figure no one in franchise history even comes close to matching, and I'll bet no one even suspected that to be the case. But there have been 32 pitchers who have started 75 games for the Blue Jays, and here is how the team has fared in each man's starts:
Pitcher STARTS W L PCT Rest of Team
Jose Berrios 106 67 39 .632 .521
Doyle Alexander 103 63 40 .612 .573
David Wells 138 83 55 .601 .543
Mark Buehrle 97 58 39 .598 .494
Roy Halladay 287 171 116 .596 .487
Alek Manoah 75 44 31 .587 .533
Jimmy Key 250 145 105 .580 .560
A.J. Burnett 80 45 35 .563 .549
Mike Flanagan 76 42 34 .553 .559
Dave Stieb 408 225 183 .551 .501
Kevin Gausman 91 50 41 .549 .527
Brandon Morrow 93 51 42 .548 .488
J.A. Happ 127 69 58 .543 .472
Juan Guzman 195 105 90 .538 .503
Shaun Marcum 95 51 44 .537 .524
Pat Hentgen 238 127 111 .534 .472
John Cerutti 108 57 51 .528 .551
Todd Stottlemyre 175 91 84 .520 .557
Luis Leal 151 78 73 .517 .499
Kelvim Escobar 101 52 49 .515 .520
Marco Estrada 120 61 59 .508 .508
Ricky Romero 127 64 63 .504 .480
Marcus Stroman 129 64 65 .496 .476
Jim Clancy 344 168 176 .488 .471
R.A. Dickey 130 63 67 .485 .533
Ted Lilly 89 43 46 .483 .482
Chris Carpenter 135 63 72 .467 .509
Aaron Sanchez 92 42 50 .457 .496
Josh Towers 89 39 50 .438 .506
Woody Williams 76 33 43 .434 .500
Dave Lemanczyk 82 29 53 .354 .362
Jesse Jefferson 91 32 59 .352 .362
All things are not created equal, which is the point of that final column which gives the team's winning percentage when some other guy was starting. As you can see,. Berrios has pitched for better teams than, say, Roy Halladay did during his Blue Jays career. But even so, Berrios has risen further above his teams than Doc was able to do, and the fact that they were better teams actually increases the degree of difficulty. The Jays played .521 ball when Berrios wasn't the starter - their winning percentage improved .111 when he took the mound. Halladay comes so close that he essentially matches that performance - teams that played .487 ball behind the other starters improved by .109 when Doc was the starter. Mark Buehrle is the only other starter in the same area code as Berrios and Halladay, although Happ, Hentgen, Morrow, Wells, Manoah and Stieb were also significantly better than the rest of the team. (Woody Williams and Josh Towers were significantly worse; Marco Estrada and Ted Lilly was almost a perfect match.)
I am of course afraid that now I've gone and put a hex on him. All I can say in my defense is that it's 2024, so who cares, anyway?
Matchups
Fri 20 Sep - Berrios (16-9, 3.44) vs TBD
Sat 21 Sep - Rodriguez (1-6, 4.29) vs Bradley (6-11, 4.39)
Sun 22 Sep - Bassitt (10-13, 4.16) vs Baz (3-3, 4.21)
