Thanks Gerry, and all of the Minor League crew for great work again this year. I don't always comment but I do enjoy it (who am I kidding, I comment waaay too often).

Not bad for Orelvis - 304/360/522 in September after his suspension. Overall 267/346/523 in AAA this year so he hit a bit better post-suspension. A shame it happened, but if he figures out that he now has to work twice as hard to reach (due to the negatives applied to anyone on a PED suspension) then it could work out for the best. If he comes to spring in great shape and works hard on his defensive skills then he might make the team at 2B or 3B or even DH (if his bat is fantastically strong in spring). Josh Kasevich the only other Bison with an 800 OPS who played on the final day (hit better in AAA than AA - but as others pointed out elsewhere it is BABIP heavy) 697 OPS in AA, 325/382/433 in AAA. Like with Orelvis 2B/3B could be his with a very, very strong spring but he'd need to REALLY impress.

For 2025 I'm guessing the lineup would be something like...

• C: 2 warm bodies (Nick Raposo if still on 40 man - our minor league catching situation is poor right now)
• 1B: Tirotta; 2B: Orelvis Martinez; 3B: Addison Barger; SS: Josh Kasevich; UT: Luis De Los Santos (doubt Barger or Martinez make the ML team to start 2025)
• LF: Alan Roden; CF: Jonatan Clase; RF: Steward Berroa; OF/DH: RJ Schreck
• SP: Bloss; Macko; umm... whoever is healthy come April.
• RP: lord knows - whoever is healthy and a TON of AAAA guys I expect.

It'll be interesting to see what happens. The Jays really need to figure out what to do about pitching in the minors - lots of injuries, lots of disappointment.

Baseball America names Alan Roden as their Blue Jays minor league player of the year.

Crap milb season overall, but some legit exciting performances from the likes of Jimenez, Roden, Horwitz, Orelvis, Wagner, Arias, Nimmala and mostly good results from this year's draftees too.

For me, it was almost two different minor league seasons. First couple of months were brutal. Almost nobody doing anything. One of the worst periods I ever remember from the Jays system. After that, things changed a fair bit. A few prospects started to play well and the draft and deadline brought in some interesting talent.

I think that's a pretty fair summary Glevin. The system looks a lot like the MLB team - short on pitching in general and, other than Nimmala, potential elite talent, but deep on guys who could be average (ish) MLB position players.

might give an indication as to some borderline names they'll keep.

A list of the Blue Jays prospects expected to play in the Arizona Fall League, sources tell @ArdenZwelling and me:

Pitchers: TJ Brock, Lazaro Estrada, Ryan Jennings, Johnathan Lavallee and Kendry Rojas.

Position players: Eddinson Paulino, Adrian Pinto and Peyton Williams.

— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) September 23, 2024

Here is the Vancouver Canadians wrap-up with Chris Georges.

I will post on a separate thread.



Season Four Episode 5 Vancouver Canadians Season Wrap Up with Vancouver Canadians Broadcaster Chris Georges.

https://www.buzzsprout.com/1869778/episodes/15792420-season-four-episode-5-vancouver-canadians-season-wrap-up-with-vancouver-canadians-broadcaster-chris-georges


The Golden V podcast is a Vancouver Canada Sports podcast that talks about Hockey, Football, Baseball, and Soccer as well as other sports happenings in Vancouver. We look at the Vancouver Canucks, B.C. Lions, Vancouver Whitecaps, Vancouver Canadians, and Vancouver Warriors.

In the end all the minors are for is to provide talent to the majors. Generally that is 5-6 players getting time each year, with a goal of 2 regulars/starting pitchers a year (14 players every 6 years one could say - so 2 1/3 a year) plus an assortment of relievers and bench guys to churn through (that's the other 3-4 a year).

FYI: the peak for new players this century is 2021 at 254 (or 8.5 per team), but of those 254 just 34 have had a season as a regular (barely over 1 per team). 2016 was the peak post 1920 at creating 55 players who ever had a season as a regular (shy of 2 per team). FYI: for regulars I'm being very loose and using 300 PA minimum. Surprisingly 2020 with 30 new regulars created isn't the worst (well, not alone) as 2003 tied it with 30 regulars created. 2023 is at 16 but some of those who first reached in 2023 will be regulars in 2024 or 2025 I'm sure (Schneider, Horwitz, for example). Heck, older years get new guys too - 2021 Clement reached, but he didn't get 300 PA in 1 year until this year. Kirk was a 2020 debut but reached 300 PA in 2022.

So basically, with this quick check you could say getting 2 regulars in a season is a strong performance. My database queries are quick and dirty so not perfect here, I'll probably do a good article on this subject in the winter for fun once 2024 is done but for now, for 2016-now we see (note: might be missing guys as I did a quick job on this).

• 2016: no hitters (yeah, the cupboard was pretty barren at the top)
• 2017: Dwight Smith Jr. (1 season as a regular for Baltimore), Mike Ohlman, Richard Urena
• 2018: Danny Jansen (just 1 300 PA season so far), Rowdy Tellez (5 seasons), Jonathan Davis, Reese McGuire, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (5 seasons)
• 2019: Cavan Biggio (3 seasons), Bo Bichette (4), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (5)
• 2020: Santiago Espinal (2), Alejandro Kirk (3)
• 2021: Kevin Smith, Otto Lopez (1 - this year in Miami, 412 so far, 83 OPS+, 2.3 WAR - nice to see)
• 2022: Vinny Capra, Gosuke Katoh
• 2023: Davis Schneider (1), Nathan Lukes, Cam Eden, Spencer Horwitz (1), Mason McCoy

So before Schneider and Horwitz we only saw a lot in 18/19/20 (8 guys who'd be regulars at some point). Just Lopez for 21/22. So 11 regulars in 7 seasons. Not 'WOW' but not 'oh crap' either.

BA have published the minor league records by organization. The Jays finished 28th out of the 30 orgs.

We're #1! We- oh, you said #28. Whoops. *puts foam finger away*

MLB.com released their list of top international prospects. Usually, they note which player the team is "linked to" but they don't this year. I think the Jays are linked with Christopher Polanco. Also, don't know what's happening with Kennew Blanco who was supposed to sign last year but was too young I think. Jays haven't done well internationally recently but hopefully, that changes soon. I am not getting excited about prospects there unless it's a Vlad/Jasson Dominguez level guy. Get a bunch of guys and hopefully in a year or two, a couple of them turn into prospects. Most guys are signing when they are 16 (probably agreeing younger) and so much changes after that.

Our farm graduated many players this year which should weaken our standings.

I believe that there is something to be said about having a large quantity of decent prospects. This could produce some K Pillar & Bowden Francis types.

1 or 2 Manny Lee/Alfredo Griffin type of player is ok but you don't want a team full of them.

J Class & Dasan Brown are speedsters that may make the Majors and be valuable in CF. It is possible that we have a Bell, Barfield or Teo in our system.

TB got Hunter Bigge in a trade and Edwin Uceta as a minor league signing. Uceta was waived by about 5 teams already. TB has a great skill at picking up relievers.

I didn't see anybody mention this but several minor league coaches in the Jay's organization were let go this week. Included were the Buffalo and New Hampshire position coaches ( not sure what they do), FCL pitching and hitting coaches, the hitting lab coach and the Latin America coordinator.

The FCL team had a team record of 12-44, the worst winning percentage in minor league ball. The New Hampshire winning percentage was worst in the Eastern League while Buffalo's was second-worst in the 20 team International League. I'd give a shout-out to Vancouver's coaching staff as they have led the team to 3 straight championship finals.

So, by all accounts, Shapiro and Atkins are going to be back next season, despite having built a weak farm system and being responsible for a major League team in the bottom third, or really quarter, of the league. Well, if you're going to deflect the blame, why not fire some coaches and, by gosh, the Jay's have some of the best facilities in baseball.

final hitter prospect stats roundup of the season. I think i'll try and come up with a top-10 hitting performance list still but i tried a couple times already and it's pretty tough this year.


AAA

* IF Martinez (22): 319pa, 8.5b%, 23.8k%, .305bip, .267avg, .256iso, 120wrc+
* OF Clase (22): 426pa, 11.5b%, 25.8k%, .335bip, .263avg, .176iso, 97wrc+

Orelvis ends up with a very solid season, even after coming back from the suspension. Not quite super-elite-must-call-up-immediately level, but very promising and with expected improvement next year definitely seems on track to be an MLB hitter.

Clase with decent year, but not good enough yet to expect MLB level hitting from. Hopefully he shows some significant improvement next year while still being not old for the level.


* X IF Jimenez (23): 226pa, 13.3b%, 15.0k%, .300bip, .271avg, .160iso, 131wrc+
* IF Kasevich (23): 173pa, 8.1b%, 14.5k%, .369bip, .325avg, .108iso, 116wrc+

Leo had arguably the best hitting year in all our MILB this year considering age/level, and even better considering he should be a capable middle infielder defensively. And he carried that right up to the bigs with solid MLB average offense right away, without any fluky looking numbers underneath. He deserves to be in the bigs next year regardless of his options status.

Kasevich hit better in AAA than he has at any other level, and by a lot. It is mainly babip-driven but that's not necessarily something to completely invalidate the performance. I'm a skeptic still but this is definitely encouraging especially given his apparent quality SS defense. Bench IF seems definitelly within his reach...and if he adds a bit of pop then maybe even more than that.


* OF Roden (24): 286pa, 12.2b%, 14.3k%, .345bip, .314avg, .196iso, 140wrc+
* X UT Barger (24): 249pa, 16.1b%, 19.3k%, .299bip, .260avg, .206iso, 128wrc+

Roden also in contention for "best hitting line" in our system this year. He may well have already moved past Schneider and Loperfido on the depth charts even if they didn't want to burn an option on him this year. There would be very little reason to send him back to Buffalo if he has a good spring next year.

Barger a very nice line too, with good underlyings to boot. His mlb line doesn't look great overall, but is seems to be showing improvment: 1st Callup 18pa, -80wrc+ --> 2nd Callup 48pa, 41wrc+ ---> 3rd Callup 141pa, 106wrc+. I think there's probably an MLB hitter here, though unfortunately the bar for him is pretty high there as his defense doesn't look mlb caliber so far.


* X IF Wagner (25): 355pa, 16.6b%, 10.4k%, .339bip, .315avg, .129iso, 130wrc+
* X OF Loperfido (25): 189pa, 11.1b%, 28.0k%, .316bip, .272avg, .296iso, 123wrc+
* OF Berroa (25): 300pa, 11.7b%, 23.7k%, .350bip, .281avg, .173so, 117wrc+
* 1B Tirotta (25): 342pa, 13.2b%, 28.1k%, .317bip, .240avg, .185iso, 108wrc+

Wagner is an overager as a prospect but everything about his hitting line says he will be able to hit at the MLB level. And if he can add some pop than he has a chance to be more than just an average mlb hitter.

Loperfido is boderline all the way. Good not great line, with very risky underlyings with big power coming with lots of Ks. I'm a skeptic here and don't think he'll make it....though admittedly with his toolset he could figure it out at some point.

Berroa put up a line just as good as Loperfido, but it looks like Berroa comes with legit high end defense, so I'm actually more bullish on Berroa being a contributor...albeit only as a bench piece.

Tirotta has a nice suprising start to AAA but fell off steadily as the year went by. He needs much more offense to be anything, given his limited D.


* X 1B Horwitz (26): 259pa, 17.0b%, 15.8k%, .401bip, .335avg, .179iso, 160wrc+
* X OF Lukes (29): 231pa, 9.5b%, 15.6k%, .378bip, .333avg, .135iso, 132wrc+
* X IF DeLosSantos (26): 154pa, 13.6b%, 22.7k%, .310bip, .260avg, .181iso, 117wrc+
* C Heineman (33): 199pa, 14.1b%, 16.1k%, .276bip, .379avg, .151iso, 111wrc+
* C Serven (29): 159pa, 16.4b%, 28.9k%, .386bip, .265avg, .114iso, 111wrc+
* C Henry (27): 104pa, 6.7b%, 18.3k%, .315bip, .275avg, .158iso, 101wrc+

Horwitz legit crushed it in AAA, forcing a callup, and then didn't stop in the bigs either. A very pleasant surprise and with some defensive chops too.

Lukes hit like he always does, and in the bigs too. IMO he should have been a guy that got more playing time for us the last few years and will be a quality part time OF for some team next year, maybe us.

De Los Santos with a nice surprising line but I doubt it's anything more than a hot streak. Still, no harm in holding on to see if he can repeat it next year.

the 3 catchers all can hit well enough in AAA. Heineman the only one to show the above average defense in the bigs. Heineman's an ideal 3C and tbh i bet he'd be a pretty good 2C too if given the chance. Though I'd rather get a better backup C still.


AA

* IF Paulino (21): 295pa, 9.8b%, 22.4k%, .341bip, .265avg, .123iso, 112wrc+

A clear standout this year statistically. Hopefully he has a strong fall year. He's young enough that repeating AA is perfectly fine....but his performance is good enough to deserve a promotion already, too.

* IF McAdoo (22): 261pa, 10.3b%, 27.6k%, .287bip, .224avg, .175iso, 105wrc+
* IF Dejesus (22): 425pa, 8.2b%, 28.0k%, .357bip, .260avg, .117iso, 105wrc+
* OF Pinango (22): 352pa, 9.7b%, 21.0k%, .254bip, .207avg, .111iso, 81wrc+
* OF Brown (22): 119pa, 5.0b%, 28.6k%, .319bip, .217avg, .085iso, 72wrc+

McAdoo was having a great year before the trade, and was off to a great start here too.....but then just fell apart down the stretch. Dropped his line all the way from looking like a legit prospect to just a borderline one pretty quickly. It's still an above average line at an appropriate level for his age, and solid underlying numbers with patience and power, and maybe a bit of bad babip luck. But not as exciting as he looked when we got him that's for sure.

I liked Dejesus last year and he had a solid enough above average year this year too....though the underlyings look pretty sketchy in this case. High babip, low power, middling patience....I still like his tools but this is a very iffy prospect line right here.

Pinango doesn't look like a prospect.

Brown's line is terrible obviously....but he did make a solid improvement in AA after a horrendous start, and with his speed and defense doesn't need a whole lot of offense to be useful. I'm not bailing on him yet.


* OF Schreck (23): 148pa, 13.5%, 23.0k%, .274bip, .230avg, .230iso, 133wrc+
* 1B Nunez (23): 433pa, 10.2b%, 20.1k%, .325bip, .275avg, .140iso, 121wrc+

Lots to like in that Schreck line, especially with babip a tad low. Not sure i'd call him a real prospect quite yet but if he can carry most of this offense to AAA next year then yeeh.

Nunez' line isn't more than just ok for his age here, but what keeps him interesting still is that he apparently has elite raw power, which simply hasn't shown up in games yet. But as soon as you add power to that otherwise very solid line right there, then suddenly it becomes a pretty great line. Can't wait forever on a guy but maybe worth waiting for yet.


A+

* OF Arias (20): 40pa, 15.0b%, 12.5k%, .379bip, .324avg, .029iso, 130wrc+
* IF Coffey (20): 368pa, 11.1b%, 24.5k%, .261bip, .224avg, .190iso, 109wrc+

Arias one of the best hitters in our system this year. Crushed it at age appropriate A, then had a great start as an underager in A+ here before getting injured. Lots to like here.

Coffey ended the year with a very good line, especially considering his age, but not quite as good as when we traded for him. Hopefully with him (and a bunch of the traded for guys) this was just a kid having to deal with being traded for the first time in his career. Still even though he stunk as a jay so far, that's a good line overall for an underaged prospect.

* IF Pinto (21): 76pa, 5.3b%, 13.2k%, .316bip, .300avg, .271iso, 154wrc+
* C Deschamps (21): 43pa, 11.6b%, 37.2k%, .333bip, .200avg, .114iso, 99wrc+
* IF Harry (21): 448pa, 8.0b%, 21.7k%, .247bip, .213avg, .154iso, 90wrc+

Great looking line for Pinto, though obviously a tiny sample. Hopefully he can finally be healthy next year and we get to see what he can to in a real sample size.

Deschamps is a guy who kept popping in and out of my prospect view this year. I have no idea if he's actually a catcher or not defensively, but if he is, then his 119wrc+ in A combined with league average in A+ here would be enough to make him look interesting enough.

Harry's line doesn't look great overall but there's at least some hope that his very low babip has at least some bad luck in there.


* OF Bohrofen (22): 485pa, 12.4b%, 23.7k%, .318bip, .254avg, .178iso, 126wrc+
* 1B Orf (22): 215pa, 15.3b%, 22.8k%, .305bip, .240avg, .179iso, 120wrc+

Somebody mentioned that Bohrofen's defense might be better than I was giving him credit for, and if so that's good news. His hitting line this year is only decent for his age, but he really came on strong to end the year so that line might be underrating his actual current level. Hopefully he gets off to a better start next year in AA, and can hit well enough to earn himself an AAA look at age 23.

Orf likely has a lower defensive upside, so his similar hitting line is probably less hopeful. Still, not a disastrous line, and he had injury issues, so worth waiting and seeing here a bit still.


A

* IF Nimmala (18): 361pa, 8.3b%, 31.3k%, .301bip, .232avg, .245iso, 121wrc+

Far from a perfect line obviously, but an excellent performance for an 18yr old in A. Especially given that his performance after his stint in complex league was even better than this line. Clear areas to improve but the upside is obvious.


* OF Joseph (19): 273pa, 7.3b%, 24.5k%, .281bip, .222avg, .134iso, 91wrc+

don't know much about this kid but it's passable line for his age.....if he has some defensive value in there.


* X OF Arias (20): 332pa, 10.8b%, 21.7k%, .347bip, .279avg, .175iso, 141wrc+
* OF Mitchell (20): 103pa, 6.8b%, 19.4k%, .319bip, .289avg, .178iso, 129wrc+
* C Duran (20): 327pa, 11.9b%, 15.3k%, .293bip, .245avg, .068iso, 97wrc+
* IF Beltre (20): 446pa, 9.6b%, 18.6k%, .287bip, .236avg, .091iso, 96wrc+

Arias obviously crushed it.

Mitchell with a great performance right out of the draft, and immediately showing he has some pop even with wood bats, which was a question mark. Can't ask for much more here.

Duran and Beltre have ok lines....for defense-first prospects. And I don't know what kind of defensive upside they actually have.


* C Parker (21): 100pa, 17.0b%, 27.0k%, .286bip, .235avg, .284iso, 154wrc+
* 3B Keys (21): 98pa, 13.3b%, 21.4k%, .365bip, .293avg, .159iso, 134wrc+
* C Deschamps (21): 120pa, 12.5b%, 35.8k%, .368bip, .235avg, .186iso, 119wrc+
* C Tibbitts (21): 91pa, 12.1b%, 13.2k%, .318bip, .282avg, .090iso, 119wrc+
* IF Freethy (21): 76pa, 22.4b%, 23.7k%, .250bip, .182avg, .055iso, 110wrc+

Parker the clear standout of these small sample overagers here. If this offense is at all sustainable, and if he can actually stay behind the plate, he could be an exciting prospect.

Keys started very poorly but improved quickly. Very solid line in the end.

Solid lines for the other 3 as well.


* OF Micheletti (22): 90pa, 14.4b%, 15.6k%, .333bip, .292avg, .167iso, 155wrc+
* OF Cunningham (23): 105pa, 18.1b%, 21.9k%, .236bip, .197avg, .118iso, 113wrc+


It's a great line for Micheletti. But at an age where it's hard to care too much. He'll have to move quickly through the system to get interesting.

Cunningham not much of a line here and way too old for the level.

Good analysis. Re: Deschamps, underlying numbers were poor in Dunedin, so he's really just backup catching depth at this point but always hopeful for more.

When I get spare time, I'll provide a sheet with aggregated statcast data for Dunedin.

I think a position coach is a 1B/3B coach.
In Little Leagues, you're allowed one adult coach on the field, a player has to coach the other corner.
Also, that coach usually doubles as a defensive coach.
With the Blue Jays, the 1B coach is responsible for the outfield and the 3B coach was usually an infield instructor.
Not sure about the current guy.

The Buffalo staff lists a manager, a bench coach, a hitting coach, a pitching coach, a bullpen coach and a position coach.
The position coach is probably the 3B coach.

Hechevarria, the Bisons position coach was an ex-catcher who probably took care of catcher instructions.

"When I get spare time, I'll provide a sheet with aggregated statcast data for Dunedin."

nice. looking forward to it.

"You mileage may vary but I like this ranking tool:"

nice. thanks.