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5 years, opt out after 4, Jays can lock in year 5 with a guarantee for year 6. Appears to be for $92.5 mil with a max value of $110 if the extra year happens.

Pending a physical (makes sense) which appears to be done (via BNS & Davidi). Most details via MLB Trade Rumors. $92.5 mil over 5, player opt out after 3, team option for year 6 (can cancel the player opt-out by activating the option), $13.5 mil signing bonus, year 6 is $15 mil or $5 mil buyout. There are deferrals in there too, but not known yet how much. Late Update: after factoring in defered cash the net value is about $70 mil over 5 or $14 mil a year. That is pretty cheap. Joc Pederson got more on a per year basis, as did Tyler O'Neill, Gleyber Torres, and Michael Conforto. I'd say the waiting game worked out.

Santander was the O's RF last year, so he'll move to LF here (90 games lifetime, last in '23, 38 games in '22). Not known for defense, but lifetime a +9 DRS in RF where he has played the most (-7 last year though). He is here for the power - 44 HR last year, 20+ 3 other times in his career. Projected for 33-34 HR in 2025 and 2.4-2.7 WAR (Steamer, FGDC, OOPSY), ZiPs has him with 31 HR, 240/311/459 118 OPS+ 2.2 WAR. A big plus is he is a switch hitter. Nice to have in the lineup that is for sure.

So the new lineup....
C: Kirk, 1B: Vlad, 2B: Giménez, 3B: Clement, SS: Bo, LF: Santander, CF: Varsho, RF: Springer, DH: Wagner/Loperfido/Schneider/whoever else is kicking.

FanGraphs has it going Springer-Vlad-Santander-Bo-Wagner (DH)-Kirk-Gimenez-Clement-Lukes (covering until Varsho healthy)
We got one - Santander a Blue Jay | 335 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
uglyone - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 12:44 PM EST (#455798) #
How much?
soupman - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 12:54 PM EST (#455804) #
just a wild guess: too much for too many years
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 12:54 PM EST (#455805) #
Apparently $92.5/5. Opt out after 4, can be voided if team adds 6th guaranteed year
uglyone - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 12:57 PM EST (#455806) #
my least favorite target on the market, but less than $20m per year isn't bad to be fair.
soupman - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 12:58 PM EST (#455807) #
what could go wrong signing a guy, the wrong side of 30, with a career OPS under .800 coming off a career year?

wasn't the rumour he was looking at 3 year deals?

when can we get rid of this front office? they're now doing things that would hurt a rebuilt team.
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 01:04 PM EST (#455808) #
I would say, after the deadline at the earliest, soupman. If the team has a good year, I would expect at least another 5 years of Shapiro
Katie - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 01:04 PM EST (#455809) #
The rumour was that Santander wanted five years (https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/anthony-santander-rumors-five-year-deal-yankees-interested.html).

I imagine the Jays were the only team to offer one to him.

I think there's a significant chance this gets ugly the last couple of years. It's a good example of having to overpay in length, if not dollars, to get players here. Santander knew he had this front office over a barrel given how the offseason went and gambled they would give it to him.
John Northey - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 01:06 PM EST (#455810) #
So, what has the FO done this winter so far? Goals were to cover the pen, offense, and maybe 1 more starter.

  • Traded Horwitz for Andrés Giménez (2B wow defense for a 27 year old prospect who showed some bat 123 OPS+ over 425 PA)
  • Signed free agents Yimi García, Jeff Hoffman, and now Santander - 2 relievers and a slugger.
  • traded PTBNL or cash for $2 mil IFA cash and Myles Straw (CF wow D, zero O and $11 mil owing over 2 years)
  • Dumped Romano for nothing
So added 2 solid relievers, 2 'wow' defensive players with meh or no offense, and a power OF. Just need to find a starting pitcher and they've pretty much covered what they were after. Ideally another reliever and a DH too.
braden - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 01:06 PM EST (#455811) #
Definitely was not who I wanted at the beginning of the offseason but at this point, sure, fine.

John Northey - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 01:10 PM EST (#455812) #
It is clear that the Jays need to add that extra year to get anyone to sign right now. Sucks, but Rogers can afford it. Now sign Vlad long term and get us either 1 more hitter or 1 more starting pitcher and the winter is complete.
scottt - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 01:11 PM EST (#455813) #
They needed a left bat to hit behind Vlad.

500K of the IFA money they got from Straw goes here.
Ideally he opts out after 4 year which makes it a decent contract.
If not, he's still here at age 34 in 2029.

By comparison, the Yankees got Goldsmitdt who is 37 and Bellinger.
Goldshmidt gets 12.5M and Bellinger gets 27.5M. 
Straw can be a pinch runner/defensive replacement.

Maybe just add a 5th starter to push Y-Rod as the long man in place of Tommy Nance and they should be good to go.
Eephus - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 01:13 PM EST (#455814) #
As I've written before, I wasn't particularly fussed on Santander as a target because he's an incredibly one dimensional hitter. The positive is that single dimension, hitting lots of home runs, is something the middle of the Blue Jays lineup needed desperately. 

There's also the switch hitting element, to which Santander seems perfectly even on either side (even the power numbers match, if anything he's slightly more patient as a RHH). I was worried that his career year in homers was mostly aided by the closer right field porch in Camden Yards (just 318 down the line) but he actually hit considerably more home runs on the road in 2024.  

If he's "the big bat" addition and that's it that's all, I don't love the move. But I think you're got a guy here that can reliably give you 25-30 home runs a season for at least a few more years, with an OPS+ in the 120 range. His outfield work is less than great, but having an elite glove like Varsho next door (whenever he gets back) can offset some of that. I imagine Santander has to be the team's cleanup hitter for now (but seriously, if they can still get Alonso on a deal with opt-outs now we're talking). 

And hey, at least this is a sign they're not content to just shrug after all these failures and throw 2025 away. Whether you think that's wise or not... there's an argument to be made either way. Personally, if they go get Mad Max Scherzer next I actually might start liking this team again... (heh) 
uglyone - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 01:16 PM EST (#455815) #
there is nothing wrong with the contract tbh. signing him until age 34 isn't even a big deal. that's not very old really.

the issue for me is thinking that santander is a core bat comparable to other top team's core bats. he just isn't that, even in the unlikely situation that last year was a breakout at 29 and not just a career year.
scottt - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 01:23 PM EST (#455816) #
Alonso would complicate things.
Santander would have to hit between him and Vlad.
Alonso and Vlad would fight for 1B.
Vlad would probably play some 3B.
It certainly wouldn't make it easier to extend Vlad.

99BlueJaysWay - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 01:32 PM EST (#455817) #
Payroll is also the highest it’s ever been. I wonder how many more moves they can make.
scottt - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 01:33 PM EST (#455818) #
Even if we're projecting 30 HR, not 44, he's a 3 WAR bat which is better than Horwitz.
uglyone - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 01:41 PM EST (#455821) #
He and horwitz actually project similarly, though obviously Santander's projections are safer.
Gerry - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 01:44 PM EST (#455822) #
This just reminds me of the Springer contract. Both around 30, long contract, one year more for Springer but he is and was more athletic.

So the contract should work for this year and next, after that who knows?
uglyone - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 01:45 PM EST (#455823) #
well a year younger than Springer and a year shorter contract, so not signing him for ages 35 and 36, which is pretty significant.
jerjapan - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 01:46 PM EST (#455824) #
I also think it's a fair deal but agree that he is not a true big bat but rather a supporting player ala Teoscar.  Honestly, this move is a thumbs up from me at this point.  The problem of missing on everyone is lessened if Rogers is willing to let Atikins try to spend his way out of this mess. 

Does anyone do valuations on bonus pool money?   Like, did we pay an exorbitant price to swing and miss, or did we just swing and miss?  We are obviously behind the eight ball on IFAs, but we can still use that extra space.  But use it well? 

And how does Lukes fare compared to Straw defensively?  He's gotta be ahead of the new guy on the depth chart, no?  Shaprio and Atkins can't be the smartest guys in the room if they are playing a sunk cost, (barring a major comeback from Straw).   
Gerry - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 01:52 PM EST (#455825) #
Jays lose their second round draft pick this year. They also lose international pool money in 2026.

With the Jays payroll this high I think Edward Rogers is turning into George Steinbrenner, without the manager sackings.
85bluejay - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 01:53 PM EST (#455826) #
If Vlad and Bo leave, Santander may become the new Dave Kingman with no protection .
Marc Hulet - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 01:55 PM EST (#455827) #
The international pool money apparently gets deducted from the 2026 pool not 2025, so the trade didn't actually help there. The lost 2nd round pick (and related $2M budget) is for 2025, though.

I took some time this weekend and watched one of the few games Straw played in the majors in 2024. In it, he broke up a no-hitter in the 5th inning and single handedly scored a run: oppo field hit, stolen base (by a huge margin even though the other team knew he was going), stole third (the batter was struggling to get a bunt down so he just did it himself) and then scored on the suicide bunt.

Masterful small ball, and he had good routes in the outfield. He'll be a good No. 4 OFer and can split playing time with Lukes until Varsho is back. He's just not worth $5M+...
Gerry - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 02:11 PM EST (#455829) #
Rosenthal says the opt out is after year three.
85bluejay - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 02:20 PM EST (#455830) #
Opt out after 3 years seems more practical than after after 4 years - Also there is a signing bonus and deferrals which complicate the present day value calculation.
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 02:20 PM EST (#455831) #
That would be great, if true Gerry
Glevin - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 02:23 PM EST (#455832) #
Not my favourite target but he makes team better. Jays are going to have to overpay/do more years to get almost anyone. Under $20M a year isn't bad though. Now they need to keep going. Go get Scherzer, go get Bregman and try to win.
Kelekin - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 02:26 PM EST (#455834) #
Like many here, not a favorite target, but value per year seems decent (thought he'd get close to that over 4 years).

Hope he spends most of his time DHing though and doesn't block a corner OF prospect.
John Northey - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 02:30 PM EST (#455835) #
For projections I'll trust the one of a guy who had 665 PA last year and over 3k lifetime vs the guy entering his age 27 season with just 425 PA lifetime. BR: Horwitz 257/340/422 63% reliable Santander 243/313/470 87% reliable. Not sure how they measure reliability on BR but I thought it was of note and fits what I'd expect, well, I'd put Horwitz lower on the 'reliable' scale but we'll see.

Now, online I see a push for the Jays to go over the top by signing Alonso (move Vlad to 3B most of the time) and getting another starter. Signing a second QO FA isn't a bad idea - the cost is 'just' the Jays 3rd pick this summer (not more IFA cash - that is limited to the $500k they just lost by signing Santander, but for 2026).

As to crossing the tiers into 2nd now and possibly the 3rd, the cost is mostly cash, but also having their first pick in 2026 pushed back 10 slots (2nd tier does this) which would suck if the team sucks in 2025, but won't be a big worry if they do well in 2025 (if they suck in '25 they'll probably trade away all they can to get back into the 1st bracket or out of the luxury tax altogether ala 2024). A 1 year starter would make sense now (pure cash, if healthy an easy trade if the team sucks but he doesn't) ala Scherzer or a good older reliever ala Robertson, Kelly, Yates, or Jansen. All decent options depending on health. Wonder if the Jays would consider a 1-2 year deal for Bregman or another FA with a QO (Alonso & Pivetta are the only others ones left) who wants to go back on the market after 2025. Might work well and only cost the 3rd round pick this year.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 02:30 PM EST (#455836) #
Wee, we needed someone to bat behind Vlad and there wasn't much left free agent wise.

Eephus - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 02:43 PM EST (#455837) #
In the Much Ado About Nothing category, Santander actually began his MLB career as a Rule 5 pick for the Orioles in 2017 (he was a 21 year old outfielder who had yet to play above A ball).

The team he was claimed from? Cleveland of course. Once again Atkins and Shapiro just can’t resist their old franchise! (Sarcasm)
greenfrog - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 03:00 PM EST (#455838) #
I don’t have strong feelings about this move. Santander makes the team better in 2025, which I guess is good in the short term. But the team as currently constituted still seems pretty middling. And 2026 looks grim.

Is the front office going to push more chips in for 2025 (adding Bregman or Alonso or Flaherty or Pivetta or Scherzer)?

Or maybe they can do a consolidation trade, packaging some of their accumulated prospects for a useful MLB player in return?
scottt - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 03:11 PM EST (#455840) #
In the Much Ado About Nothing category, Santander's nicknames are Agua Blanca and Tony Taters.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 03:16 PM EST (#455842) #
This line up needed this bat so badly. Two thumbs up from me. Glad to see this team finally shape up and spend some $$$ without trying to win every transaction on value.

You can't criticize this FO for overspending or getting deals that may age badly if they continue bringing in free agents and spending. I'll take this over the past two offseasons of dog poop.
uglyone - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 03:35 PM EST (#455843) #
average of Steamer wRC+ proj. and Zips ops+ proj.

* 1. SS Bichette 115
* 2. DH Wagner 114
* 3. 1B Guerrero 151
* 4. LF Santander 119
* 5. C Kirk 113
* 6. RF Springer 106
* 7. 2B Gimenez 105
* 8. CF Varsho 101
* 9. 3B Clement 98

* X. CF Loperfido 90 / Clase 85 / Berroa 84 / Straw 73
* X. COF Roden 108 / Schneider 105 / Lukes 105 / Barger 104
* X. IF Stefanic 107 / Jimenez 99 / Orelvis 93 / Kasevich 83
* X. C Sanchez 75 / Heineman 74
greenfrog - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 03:37 PM EST (#455844) #
UO, what would that stat be for 3B Bregman if signed?
scottt - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 03:40 PM EST (#455845) #
Top Luxury tax payrolls for 2025
1. Dodgers 389+
2. Phillies 308+
3. Yankees 303+
4. Mets 294+
5. Blue Jays 245+
soupman - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 03:47 PM EST (#455846) #
Now all that remains to do is to sign Bregman to complete my projected Jays off season of panic and job security concerns.

Play for your contracts, boys!
Gerry - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 04:00 PM EST (#455847) #
Contract has major deferrals. Learning from the Dodgers? Or is Santander trying to avoid Canadian tax?
Gerry - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 04:15 PM EST (#455848) #
More than $35M deferred per reports.
Nigel - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 04:16 PM EST (#455849) #
The contract isn't terrible and Sanatander will help in 2025. This whole offseason makes very little sense for 2026 and beyond on the team's current trajectory.
SK in NJ - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 04:27 PM EST (#455850) #
$18.5M a year and heavily deferred makes this a pretty solid deal. Hopefully means the team isn't done adding. They need more than Santander. Seems like the plan is to go for broke in 2025, and then deal with 2026-beyond when it happens. Similar to AA's 2014-15 winter mindset, although a Vladdy extension could certainly change that.
uglyone - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 04:29 PM EST (#455851) #
afaik the deferrals don't help annual payroll implications, right?

just lets him avoid taxes for the most part?

honestly every deal we do should have massive deferrals as a default.
scottt - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 04:39 PM EST (#455852) #
I think he makes plenty of sense for 2026 and beyond.
After hitting 30, he's going to DH more and more.
He's not blocking anyone and the Jays have lots of money coming off the books, Bassitt in 26, Springer and Gausman in 27.

The Jays are not on a trajectory of fielding a 100 game losing team.
There's no point in doing that with a lottery in place.

pooks137 - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 04:43 PM EST (#455853) #
There is a $13.5MM signing bonus and deferrals, which will impact the net present value

If I remember correctly from the Russell Martin/Josh Donaldson article about winning their case against the CRA last month, signing bonuses in Canada are taxed federally at a flat 15% or so as opposed to the progressive tax rates for salary.

Not impactful for CBT considerations, but of note that savvy FAs and their reps may want to frontload as much into signing bonuses as possible given other considerations.

dalimon5 - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 05:25 PM EST (#455854) #
"The Jays are not on a trajectory of fielding a 100 game losing team.
There's no point in doing that with a lottery in place."

It would appear you and I are in the minority to be sharing this view.
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 05:54 PM EST (#455855) #
Deferrals do matter for the CBT, because it affects the net present value of the contract (lowering it due to inflation). So it’s a benefit to the 2025 team because the CBT impact will be lower.
Glevin - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 06:04 PM EST (#455856) #
I think all AL East teams are around the same right now. Jays need to keep adding. Alonso, I don't get unless it's a one year deal because he clogs up DH which means just taking abs away from Wagner and giving the Jays less flexibility and he seems like he's in pretty serious decline. Bregman (or trade for 3B) and a starter and I'll be happy.
SK in NJ - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 06:14 PM EST (#455857) #
I don't see Alonso happening. Boras is going to want a deal where he can opt out after a year. If you look at last winter's Boras clients, that approached worked for some (Snell, Chapman) and not for others (Bellinger, Montgomery, Hoskins). Alonso being a 1B/DH makes me think he's closer to the latter than the former, so a multi-year deal with opt outs is not appealing for a team that is losing a pick for it. Makes more sense for the Mets to make that deal.

I think Bregman might be their target, and failing that it will be Profar.
uglyone - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 06:16 PM EST (#455858) #
Sign Bregman, Alonso, and Scherzer. stop Fing around.

scottt - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 06:19 PM EST (#455859) #
Bregman is too expensive.

Let say Straw and Heineman are on the bench.
That probably leaves Jimenez as the backup infielder. 
That leaves one spot open for a corner outfielder/infielder to play when Springer/Guerrero/Santander are the DH.
That also leaves the CF open for a competition along with the DH for which most people would like to see Wagner.

The real issue is the back of the rotation/pen.
A decent 5th starter would push Y-Rod to the pen and solve both problem.

Also, they might eventually want a second lefty in the pen.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 06:35 PM EST (#455860) #
I don't think Straw js ever playing for the Jays.
BlueJayWay - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 06:40 PM EST (#455861) #
Thumbs up on this deal. The Jays badly needed someone who can go yard and chicks dig the long ball. The AAV isn't too high either.
Now keep going.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 07:02 PM EST (#455862) #
Scottie Mitchell saying Alonso still in play. This is getting better. Boy oh boy if they can add another 35HR bat and then resign Vlad I'm back in.
John Northey - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 07:10 PM EST (#455863) #
Current guess for opening day (baring more FA and/or trades of course)...
Kirk-Vlad-Giménez-Clement-Bo-Santander-Lukes (until Varsho healthy)-Springer-Wagner bench: Heinemann-Schneider-Straw-Jimenez

Rotation: Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Francis-Rodriguez
Pen: Hoffman-Garcia-Green-Swanson-Sandlin-Little-Pop-Burr

Other 40 man pitchers: Bloss-Macko-Nance-Robertson-Walker-Eisert-Lucas-Peterson
Other 40 man hitters: Loperfido-Clase-Berroa-Barger-O Martinez

IL: Manoah-Varsho-Bastardo
greenfrog - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 07:18 PM EST (#455864) #
If the Blue Jays are currently (say) an 85-win team, they might as well push a bit further now to become an 87 or 88 win team. They might not have a lot of prospects to make significant improvements at the trade deadline.
Glevin - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 07:22 PM EST (#455865) #
Biggest need is pretty easily SP for me. Team even has decent depth most places on the field but don't trust Rodriguez as 5th starter and any injured pitcher means who, Bloss, in rotation? Get scherzer or Flaherty.
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 07:26 PM EST (#455866) #
While I’m fully onboard for more signings, I can’t imagine there is that much payroll room left (referencing posters asking them to sign Bregman and Alonso).

I’m still fussed about where everyone will play - Loperfido, Clase, Barger, Berroa, Straw, Lukes, Rosen - for the outfield alone, let alone Schneider and Martinez. A lot of those guys deserve full time ABs, and a few of them might be players. It’s good to have depth, but it’s not good to waste assets. I wonder how they fix this to make it all make sense
greenfrog - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 07:28 PM EST (#455867) #
As a refresher, here are Fangraphs' player notes on Alonso from their 2025 top 50 free agents list (Alonso was #13, right behind Santander):

If only this were happening two years earlier. Over his first four seasons with the Mets, Alonso slugged a big league-best 146 home runs and ran a 137 wRC+, 12th-best among qualified hitters. His 12.4 WAR ranked fourth among first basemen. Over the past two years, Alonso has been a solid hitter, but a 121 wRC+ and below-average defense at first translates to just 4.9 WAR. All of sudden, Alonso isn’t the game’s preeminent home run hitter. He’s a slugger with sagging numbers who will soon be on the wrong side of the 30.

Or at least that’s one way of looking at things. Alonso is hands-down the best first baseman on the market. He’s never posted a wRC+ below 120. After a rough start to 2024, he put up a 130 wRC+ in the second half and went ballistic in the playoffs. Alonso still hits the ball plenty hard, takes his walks, and makes enough contact. His step back can mostly be attributed to his groundball and strikeout rates creeping up. The latter is happening largely because he’s been much more passive on pitches in the zone. In 2024, Alonso swung at just 66% of pitches over the heart of the plate, which put him in the sixth percentile of all hitters (minimum 300 such pitches). That sounds fixable. Whoever signs Alonso will be paying for his decline years, but they’ll be getting one of the game’s biggest and most lovable power bats in the meantime. – DA
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 07:29 PM EST (#455868) #
I’m with you, Glevin. Another starter is needed.
When you at Northey’s proposed roster, it jumps out to me that the bullpen lacks a multi-inning guy. Getting another starter fixes that issue.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 07:30 PM EST (#455869) #
I think it's becoming clear - between the 11 million they took on from Straw just to impress Sasaki to the 11 million they took on from Gimenez this season - this FO has lots of cash to work with and the ability as demonstrated in the Santander deal to use deferrals to help balance out the overall value of a contract.

It's actually a bit crazy that they went to fight Vlad last year over a few million. The amount of money they will pay going over the two thresholds for one year is not significant percentage-wise.
Kelekin - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 07:31 PM EST (#455870) #
Not going to link to anything on X, but BNS says Santander's deal appears to be around 14m a year for CBT purposes.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 07:32 PM EST (#455871) #
Agree on SP need and BP multi inning P but also another bat! I think they want more of their AAAA guys in AAA padding their numbers.
greenfrog - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 07:37 PM EST (#455872) #
Keith Law (The Athletic) called the Santander contract a "huge overpay" and that it's "a deal that should certainly make them 2-3 wins better this year, but that I really doubt is going to age well at all."

He also wrote, and I tend to agree, that "Springer might be toast ... and they need to just bench him and give Santander those at-bats. The other corner is still available, although I’d like to see Joey Loperfido, acquired in the Yusei Kikuchi trade, get a shot there."
Gerry - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 07:41 PM EST (#455873) #
Brandon Eisert DFA'd for Santander.
Eephus - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 07:42 PM EST (#455874) #
I think if you get creative, you can add Alonso and still find Wagner a healthy amount of at bats (for the record I like Wagner a lot). Say Vlad starts a game a week at 3B, or a DH game for Bo and Gimenez slides to SS... heck Wagner himself has played a lot of 3B in the minors (Houston was a tough organization for him to be in, blocked by both Altuve and Bregman at the time). The example everyone will use in this case is when Tigers Miguel Cabrera went and played 3B full time for a couple seasons to accommodate Prince Fielder, while DH was also occupied full time by later career Victor Martinez. 

I definitely wouldn't want to see Vlad play even 100 games at the hot corner (he has the arm but I don't trust his range or quickness) but 35-40? You can get away with that when you have elite defenders elsewhere (up the middle) and are scoring lots of runs. I dunno... you can sign Alonso and still extend Vlad too! The only concern there I see would be: it's 2027 and none of Alonso, Vlad Jr or Santander can play anywhere other than 1B/DH anymore and all have big long contracts. I'd still take that over a 65-70 win team praying they can draft/develop another superstar...       
Glevin - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 07:44 PM EST (#455875) #
I am in between. You can let young guys prove themselves before opening spots but I do think you need to keep open potential avenues for players. I am also hesitant about signing Alonso because it blocks just about every young player from playing time.
dalimon5 - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 08:00 PM EST (#455878) #
Orioles are paying O'Neil16.5 while Jays will pay Santander 18. Law is now out of his element. Good deal.

Vlad can play 3B if Bo moves to 2B and Gimenez plays SS.
uglyone - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 08:01 PM EST (#455879) #
would be hilarious if they sign a decent bat and then sabotage themselves by forcefeeding bats to an undeserving 27yr old instead of just letting the best bats play.
John Northey - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 08:09 PM EST (#455880) #
Given Loperfido isn't projected well by most (84 wRC+ by 3 methods, 96 OPS+ by ZiPS - the same as Schreck so I have trouble getting excited by the idea of him taking over either corner). Springer for a month last year was amazing, the rest he was horrid. The question is can he find a way to be closer to his hot month in 2025? Dead cat bounces aren't that rare at his age and I'd rank his odds of one higher than Loperfido finding his stroke (I see Billy McKinney in Loperfido - tons of talent, but will it ever show up?).
greenfrog - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 08:13 PM EST (#455881) #
Don’t worry, even if Springer posts a 90 wRC+ next year, he’ll play full-time for most or all of the season under John Schneider and Ross Atkins.
Glevin - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 08:13 PM EST (#455882) #
The issue isn't loperfido, it's Wagner, Roden, Orelvis, Barger, etc... Just so many guys with no room to play. Again, for one year deal, great but if your going like three years, meh.
John Northey - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 08:44 PM EST (#455883) #
Waiting for more shoes to drop - seems Seattle wants to trade Luis Castillo - owed $24.1 mil a year for the next 3 years plus a $25 mil vesting option in 2028. He is a steady 30 start guy who gets you 150-200 innings a year, 120 ERA+ lifetime, 101 last year. He'd be a damn solid guy to plug in. Seattle is after infield prospects - hello Wagner, Schneider, Orelvis, Jiménez, and others I'm sure. No idea who they want or how they evaluate those guys, but some combo might work.
scottt - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 08:45 PM EST (#455884) #
The biggest thing is to not pencil Springer as the lead off unless he wins it in spring training. Lead off Springer will start every game even if he's hitting .150.

Playing the best bats is subjective.
I think it's more about letting the young bats force their way in.
We saw Chapman slump for 5 months and never lose his spot.
greenfrog - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 09:05 PM EST (#455885) #
When Chapman struggled offensively for much of 2023, he still finished with a 110 wRC+ and 3 fWAR / 4.4 bWAR. That was his age-30 season.

Last year Springer finished with a 95 wRC+ and 1.2 fWAR / 1.1 bWAR. It was his age-34 season.

The two seasons are not really comparable, in my view. Chapman was much younger and significantly more valuable offensively and defensively. Those are objective metrics, not subjective opinions.
scottt - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 09:29 PM EST (#455886) #
Chapman basically produced all that WAR in the first month. Looking at it, Chapman actually had a good July hitting .247 and walking a lot. Springer had only one good month. Chapman had that incredible April hitting .384 good for a 200+ OPS+.

Chapman hit .167 in September. .000 in the postseason. Those are facts.


The difference is mostly power. Springer hit .247 in September with a .321 OBP but hit only 2 doubles, a triple and 0 HR.
John Northey - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 10:19 PM EST (#455888) #
So the figures seem to be $70 mil after factoring in deferred money over 5 years plus an option for about $15 mil ($5 mil buyout factored into that $70 mil) so $10 mil for year 6 if he is still a half decent player then.

Seems damn good. I was certain he'd get $20+ mil a year ala Teoscar, but with a 4th and maybe 5th year. But $70 mil over 5 is basically only a touch more than Teoscar's $58 mil over 3 (2 bonus years for $12 mil or about what a 4th reliever costs).
mendocino - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 10:37 PM EST (#455889) #

Héctor Gómez@hgomez27 · 1m
According former MLB player Carlos Baerga Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will sign a $450-500 million contract extension with the #BlueJays before the spring training begins.
SK in NJ - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 10:47 PM EST (#455891) #
Baerga tweeted this out (what Gomez was referencing):

"Anthony Santander's signing with Toronto today assured Vladimir Guerrero Jr. that the team wants to win and don't be surprised that before Spring Training begins he is signing a Contract with the Toronto Bluejays worth over 450 million to 550 million".
99BlueJaysWay - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 10:52 PM EST (#455892) #
Damn
uglyone - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 11:12 PM EST (#455893) #
good.

now keep on signing.
greenfrog - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 11:42 PM EST (#455894) #
Scott, don’t you think looking at a player’s season(s) provides a clearer picture than looking at this month or that month, or this two games or that two games?

Chapman had another excellent season in 2024, posting 5.5 fWAR / 7.1 bWAR.

He now has a large sample size of consistently strong seasons (career 31.2 fWAR by age 31).

Springer has a total of 3 WAR over the last two seasons (almost 1300 PA). He’s now 35 and has had a lot of injuries. I’m not writing him off, but he’s nowhere near a 3-5.5 WAR player (Chapman’s typical annual value) at this stage of his career. Maybe he can rebound a bit and have a 2 WAR season. But the Blue Jays may face a tough decision with him around mid-season.
Marc Hulet - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 11:49 PM EST (#455897) #
Baerga has been wrong a lot... seems like conjecture...
Glevin - Monday, January 20 2025 @ 11:51 PM EST (#455899) #
Don't trust Baerga at all but Santander is apparently a well liked guy and Jays dudcsoebd money on lineup so maybe it helps in some way.
John Northey - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 12:13 AM EST (#455900) #
Funny - on BlueSky Keith Law is complaining about this deal. So I responded with "How cheap did you think he would go for? $70 mil over 5 (after factoring in deferred $) is pretty damn low. $14 mil or about what a good middle reliever goes for. That is backup money for a guy ranked in the top 10 of most free agent lists this winter." He responded "He absolutely was not a top 10 free agent. He's had one 3-win season in his career." So I pointed out "MLB Trade Rumors had him there at #9, FanGraphs at #12 (damn close to top 10), MLB's site has him at #7, Fox Sports at #10, CBS #11, and that weird site, the Athletic (via Jim Bowden), has him at #7." FYI: Law works for the Athletic so that last bit was a shot.

BR has his 2023 as a 3.0 and 2024 at 2.9, FG 2.6 in '23 and 3.3 in '24. Both have him around 2.3 in 2022 (his first full season as a regular). So yeah, I agree a 5 year deal was not ideal, but at $70 mil for 5 you really can't complain too much imo as $14 mil a season is chump change in MLB these days. If he does really well the Jays have a bonus year for just an extra $10 mil too, if not then they can dare him to leave after 3. I suspect Law would be one of those who'd complain if the Jays hadn't signed anyone at this point too (Alonso will be overpaid, as will Bregman, Profar has more red lights than pluses (some flashing), and Kim is a defense first guy). Sometimes I think I put more thought into my comments than some of these guys who are paid to write do into their columns. Ah well, at least I don't have to worry about deadlines.
Jonny German - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 04:47 AM EST (#455901) #
Santander has his warts but he fits the roster extremely well. And the contract is very team friendly - $70M is way less than anyone expected him to get. I love the opt-out / extra year clause - it's not at all hard to imagine Santander being good enough over the next 3 years to want to trigger it.

The state of the franchise still hangs entirely on whether or not they can extend Vlad. With him, they can muddle along for 2026-2027, patching in pieces here and there and hoping things break well enough to contend, until the farm eventually, finally, produces some more core pieces. Without him the team has no identity and little hope of contention, and may as well go into a rebuild for 2026.
greenfrog - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 09:14 AM EST (#455903) #
How about a (non-political) poll question, similar to the off-season when Bauxites were polled about whether they wanted Springer, Realmuto or Bauer signed as a free agent? (I argued for Realmuto at the time.)

If the Blue Jays can add one more player to round out the off-season, would you prefer that they sign:

(a) Alonso
(b) Bregman
(c) Flaherty
(d) Pivetta
(e) Scherzer
Michael - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 09:57 AM EST (#455904) #
It is hard to answer such a poll without knowing the contract. I'd rather they extend Vlad over any of those adds, but it doesn't need to be either-or. I think the starting pitching so Flaherty or Pivetta if on reasonable small contracts would be best. If it takes a big contract to sign one of those then Alonso is the safest/best out of them all if you say we have to take a 5+ year contract, but that doesn't make as much sense if we are extending Vlad.
scottt - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 10:09 AM EST (#455905) #
Boston was crazy to give Pivetta a QO and Pivetta was even crazier in not accepting it.
I don't think he's getting any offers unless they go around the QO penalties. 

Bregman wants too much money and too many years.
He's not looking for a short deal with opt outs.
Red Sox, Yankees and Tigers are all in play. 

Flaherty is looking for 5 year at over 100M.
We're talking Gausman money. 

There's no drawback to a one-year deal with a Scherzer or anyone who projects to be an average starter.
greenfrog - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 10:13 AM EST (#455906) #
I generally agree with Michael’s take on those players.

If the Blue Jays can snag Alonso on a relatively short-term, high-AAV contract (no doubt with a substantial amount of deferred money), and also extend Vladdy, that would be an interesting combination for the next couple of years. Alonso’s postseason experience and success would be valuable if the Blue Jays end up in another WC series in 2025.
85bluejay - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 10:15 AM EST (#455907) #
Here’s hoping that Santander works out better than Kendrys Morales.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 10:33 AM EST (#455908) #
I'd vote Alonso because he will be the cheapest and even a declining Alonso will hit you 30+ bombs each year. He's only 30 so a 3 year deal would be ideal. This team finally got a left handed bat in the middle of the line up in Santander and now just needs more power and the offense is set along with lofs of upside options in the minors and bench in Martinez, Barger, Roden, etc.

I would move Vlad to 3B and that way he instantly becomes more valuable in relation to his contract. After that the FO can nibble for bullpen and SP upgrades. I would sign Quantrill for the rotation and then add two more relievers...Yarbrough and then a higher upside arm...too many to choose from...Bard, Yates, Estevez, Seawold...and don't forget about trading for Ryan Helsley...
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 10:34 AM EST (#455909) #
*and thank you for moving things away from politics...
johnny was - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 10:37 AM EST (#455910) #
Does Santander have a serious dome problem no one has mentioned yet?

He's a career .194/.275/.398 hitter in the Rogers Centre (121 PA) and a .188/.264/.364 hitter in TB (167 PA). Also bad in Seattle over a smaller sample size, good at Chase in a smaller one, and really bad in Miami and MKE in tiny ones.

In sum, he's got a fugly overall dome line of .209/.277/.394.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 10:45 AM EST (#455911) #
Yeah I looked that up to and just decided not to bring it up!


Also I change my vote from Alonso to Bregman. Screw it, i'd do the longer term on Bregman and get the great defence and walk rate which would compliment the team better in 2026 when Bo is gone.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 10:46 AM EST (#455912) #
“The issue isn't loperfido, it's Wagner, Roden, Orelvis, Barger, etc... Just so many guys with no room to play. Again, for one year deal, great but if your going like three years, meh.”

The issue is most, if not all, of those players project to be low ceiling platoon types. Martinez has the power potential to be more than that, so I hope he’s given a chance if he’s still on the team, but the others seem fairly ordinary to me. I wouldn’t mind consolidating some of that depth for a useful big league piece, similarly to Horwitz. If not, then having them in AAA to serve as depth in case of need/injury is probably a good thing. The Jays are in a position where they have to win in 2025 so they can’t afford to worry about whether a long term signing interferes with plate appearances for potentially average MLB prospects. It would become an issue if 2024 Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier are taking those PA’s away but hopefully the Jays are aiming astronomically higher than that this winter (which they seem to be).

Of the near ready prospects, the ones I think the Jays should prioritize are Martinez and Clase. To me you can dream on their upside a bit, even if they aren’t finished products yet. Wouldn’t mind Clase getting the CF reps early in the year when Varsho is out, though I suspect it will be Loperfido.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 10:58 AM EST (#455913) #
The issue isn't loperfido, it's Wagner, Roden, Orelvis, Barger, etc... Just so many guys with no room to play.

Neither Loperfido nor Barger looked at all MLB-ready last year, so I've got no problems with them starting the year in Buffalo. It's not entirely clear if anyone knows what position Orelvis can play, so he needs to spend a few months learning what to do with a glove, even if it's in the OF or 1B.

But aside from that, players will get hurt and need short and long-term replacements. I hope the team has a relatively short leash for Springer, particularly if someone like Roden is having a strong season. (Perhaps you could say the same for Bo) It would be nice if someone could step up and claim the 3B job, turning Clement into a very good utility player.
85bluejay - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 11:00 AM EST (#455914) #
Seattle apparently doesn’t have any money and needs inexpensive infielders - wonder if a package that includes Clement/Barger/ Wagner plus could get maybe Bryan Woo or another starter - also interested if Pittsburgh wants to move off of Ke’Bryan Hayes contract.
bpoz - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 11:02 AM EST (#455915) #
Trying to evaluate the Jays moves this off season and where they sit now.

With Santander the O is improved. KK/Belt and KK/Turner cost more than Santander. I expect Santander to provide more O than those combos.

Improved D and the pen is better.

The SPs: Y Rodriguez was given a good contract after not pitching at all in 2023. So his arm was not strong IMO. He got injured in May. He had some success and also some failure. IMO he should start in 2025. So we already have 5 SPs with Bloss #6.

We have a lot of young and unproven players. Too many for available ABs. D Schneider had a V hot Aug 2023 followed by a cold Sept. This resulted in some Bauxites, myself included, questioning his 2024 performance which turned out to be quite poor. IMO he has not earned a 2025 spot. Wagner was outstanding in the minors and had a V hot Aug in the majors followed by a cold Sept. He is probably given a spot on the 2025 team IMO.I don't want to speculate too much on the other young players. Barger and Orelvis have power. Kasevich has D. Leo may have D as well.

I wondered a lot about how high the payroll would go. It is now V high. IMO the off season moves are not yet done. Will the moves, if any raise or lower the payroll regarding the Luxury tax threshold. I don't know.

If we lose a draft pick and/or Int'l money it may not upset many Bauxites because we don't draft well or develop prospects well. Int'l money can be traded for so that penalty is not so severe.

My conclusion is that the team is better and should compete as is. I consider 85-90 wins competing till close to the end of the season. Being out of it before the AS break is not competing. Those are my definitions of compete and not compete.



Gerry - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 11:05 AM EST (#455916) #
Trevor Richards signs a minor league deal with the Cubs.
scottt - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 11:08 AM EST (#455917) #
The Jays got Kendrys Morales at 34.
Santander is 30.
At 32-33, Morales was good enough to take the Royals to the Word Series back to back.
scottt - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 11:14 AM EST (#455918) #
I saw Richards' deal yesterday.
The Cubs seem to like Jays pitching.
He probably gets an opt out if he doesn't make the team.
The Jays have Burr, Nick Robertson, Josh Walker, Easton Lucas and Michael Petersen in AAA with an option.
They also have Kevin Gowdy and Eric Pardinho as non roster invitees.
scottt - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 11:20 AM EST (#455919) #
Losing a draft pick sucks but not fixing holes in the lineup suck a lot more.
The IFA money is not an issue since they acquired an extra 2M.
greenfrog - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 11:25 AM EST (#455920) #
To add insult to an awful lot of injury, the Dodgers have added Kirby Yates.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 11:26 AM EST (#455921) #
Stupid question, I guess, but if the Jays don't sign Alonso, who would spell Vlad at first base if he got injured or when he DHs. Horwitz, of course, is gone and I don't really remember anyone else playing there last year.

Also, I thought Ryan Yarborough had already signed. He pitched well last year with the Jays in middle relief and can even start a game if needed so he would be a good add if he's not looking for too much money.
uglyone - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 11:48 AM EST (#455922) #
Rogers might have some employees that could make some probably fairly simple calculations that a heavy investment right now at this crucial junction could save them some heavy heavy losses over the next 5yrs.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 12:20 PM EST (#455923) #
Just a reminder that the IFA money comes off the 2026 pool, not the 2025 pool. So this extra $2M in 2025 doesn't help with the signing of QO FAs.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 12:35 PM EST (#455924) #
Reminder that George Springer, toast last year, led the team in SB, was 2nd in HR and HITS and 3rd in RBI.

Fangraphs sees 22 (HR) 64 (RBI) 14 (SB) 109 (wRC+) worth almost 2 WAR . Not the end of the world for your 4th or 5th best bat.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 12:40 PM EST (#455925) #
Ernie Clement projects to slightly less offense but almost a full WAR higher due to his defensive contribution compared to George Springer. These projections are all based on "toast George," rather than "dead cat bounce George."

We shall see. I wonder how the FO views George Springer and debate whether or not he will get the Matt Chapman (version 2023) and George Springer (version 2024) royal treatment of "take 400 ABs don't worry we won't bench you no matter how bad you are."
scottt - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 12:53 PM EST (#455926) #
I guess the Dodgers didn't get the memo that the best bullpens aren't made by signing the top free agents.
greenfrog - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 12:57 PM EST (#455927) #
The Blue Jays should do what LA did last year: start their three best hitters 1-3 in the lineup (including using Ohtani as their leadoff hitter).

There’s no need to hit Springer first in the lineup because he’s a “leadoff” hitter and veteran. That idea is outdated. Sometimes it takes the Blue Jays a while to shed outdated ideas, though.
92-93 - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 01:21 PM EST (#455928) #
Is there somewhere I can vote for the Jays to sign Bauer for 750K?
John Northey - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 01:40 PM EST (#455929) #
This winter is getting nuts - wonder how much cash really is out there for MLB owners given the Dodgers are about to crack $500 million in payroll this year (factoring in their massive luxury tax payment) with the Yates signing. Jays now rumored to be in on Profar - along with the Astros and Padres - but it seems odd as he'd be limited to DH duties unless there is a Springer trade dump coming (Santander to RF, Profar to LF).

Boy, once one move happens a ton more seem possible don't they? Profar (no QO), Bregman (QO), Alonso (QO), Flaherty, Pivetta (QO), and lord knows who else (pen options: Robertson, Jansen, Estévez, LH's Beeks, Coulombe, Smyly, heck - even Borucki & Mazya might be tempting if cheap enough. The last 2 slots in the pen are wide open (don't see Pop as a lock by any stretch). Might as well try for one more high end arm, and sign a few AAAA types who were good once. Mayza was seen as a good one pre-2024, maybe worth it to bring him back if he'll come for a minor league contract/invite to spring. If they can dump Springer on someone that'd be a big plus even if they have to take something back - Arizona wants to dump Montgomery ($22.5 owed), SD is probably desperate to do some dumps (ownership issues, horrid TV revenue, Dodgers moving into super-team category while Arizona is young and getting better) but I wouldn't touch that Bogaerts contract (entering age 32 season, owed $229 mil over next 9 years) and Machado would be a good fit (3B/good D/124 OPS+ lifetime, 120 last year) but owed $315.8 mil over next 9 years (entering age 32 season) - yeah, both those deals will age very poorly. Only way I'd take either is if they give up Tatis Jr (over $300 mil over 10 years but worth it entering age 26 season) and take Springer. Bye-Bye payroll flexibility but hello killer offense.

Realistically, Profar and Scherzer would be nice and put the team in a very good position. Ideally a few AAA deals with a few relievers to give options during 2025 too.
soupman - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 01:49 PM EST (#455930) #
Bauer is blackballed for a reason. Even if he wasn’t, he’s a clubhouse cancer and not worth it no matter how effective he could be individually.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 01:50 PM EST (#455931) #
If money is not an issue then there is no reason to jettisoned George Springer unless you have better options in the OF.
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 02:16 PM EST (#455932) #
Aren’t the Cubs still trying to get rid of Suzuki? Seems like that would make way more sense than picking up someone like Profar.
pooks137 - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 02:22 PM EST (#455933) #
Does Santander have a serious dome problem no one has mentioned yet?

Interesting finding but probably statistical noise.

I'd posit without looking it up that some of issue is that Santander has had a somewhat late breakout Bautista-like shape to his career.

He was more of a middling hitter in his first years of his career. He would've missed about a 1.5 years of Rogers Center Dome ABs when the Jays played elsewhere during COVID.

I can't remember when the CBA balanced the schedule, but he also would've had more AL East in-division dome games against Tor and TB earlier in his career when his hitting profile was worse.

jerjapan - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 02:30 PM EST (#455934) #
The FO has painted themselves into a 'win-now' corner, and for that reason, I hope they are aggressive with personnel decisions such as Springer leading off.  I don't think there is anything wrong with trying him there, as long as the leash is short.
This offseason can still be seen as a success if we make some more moves.  You can pay your way out of mistakes and give the core one last shot.  I hope the Straw deal shows a willingness to spend more aggressively than they have in the past. 

Does signing a veteran starter and another bat or reliever make this offseason a success? 


92-93 - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 02:30 PM EST (#455935) #
Santander raked in the Dome the last 2 seasons.
pooks137 - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 02:49 PM EST (#455936) #
Does signing a veteran starter and another bat or reliever make this offseason a success?

The win condition for the FO this offseason is a simple Pass/Fail whether or not they get Vlad's name on an extension contract (or have the cajones to trade him now in lieu).

I personally don't see that happening.

It's also interesting that the fans and the media don't seem to care about a Bichette extension one way or the other.

One ill-timed slumped year and you suddenly become Toni Kukoc instead of Scottie Pippen.

uglyone - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 03:14 PM EST (#455937) #
i wasn't paying much attention in the second half butiirc springer only stayed at leadoff because there weren't any other even half decent options, including an imploded Bo. iirc Horwitz was hitting #1/2 mostly after he came up and started hitting.

I'm sure Bo will get every chance to stay up top the lineup but i'm not sure Springer will...though i wouldn't be surprised if they stuck him up there to start to try and help him bounce back.

with the current roster, imo the obvious fit in handedness and hitting style would be wagner in the 2 hole behind Bo in the 1 hole. but that's only if Bo bounces back and Wagner keeps up his hitting, neither of which are guarantees. Springer outhitting both of them wouldn't be a big shock tbh.

but you'd think they'd have a hard time resisting the handedness lineup after all the talk about how we apparently need lhh more than anythign in the world.

* 1. SS Bichette R
* 2. DH Wagner L
* 3. 1B Guerrero R
* 4. LF Santander S
* 5. RF Springer R
* 6. C Kirk R
* 7. 2B Gimenez L
* 8. 3B Clement R
* 9. CF Varsho L

leftiness might also give Roden Lukes loperfido and heineman the inside track for bench jobs.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 03:21 PM EST (#455938) #
Bo was pretty bad for 2024 and most of 2023 if you go by month. Combine that with all the reports of his desire to leave Toronto and I can understand why fans are not that invested.
92-93 - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 03:24 PM EST (#455939) #
It would be stunning if Springer outhit Bichette this season, and the Jays should absolutely be looking to extend Bo right now. A year ago everybody preferred an extension for him over Guerrero.
Eephus - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 03:28 PM EST (#455940) #
Honestly... that projected lineup? Still not good enough. Need one more guy. Just saying.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 03:32 PM EST (#455941) #
Sounds like the Jays are targeting one of Alonso or Profar, so if that's the case, then I think Springer is batting 5th at best. Bo-Vladdy-Santander-Alonso or Profar-Bo-Vladdy-Santander in those two scenarios (or maybe flip Profar and Bo for R/S/R/S balance). As long as Atkins and Schneider are in the organization, I don't think Springer's playing time is in any jeopardy regardless of performance, but maybe 2025 being as important as it is will change that. If the Jays don't sign any other bats, then I could see Springer back in the lead off spot by default, but doesn't sound like the team is content as is.
scottt - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 03:34 PM EST (#455942) #
I remember a Springer interview last year in which they asked him if he was open to hitting later and he said it didn't matter to him if he was hitting first or third.
That came out very poorly.
scottt - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 03:39 PM EST (#455943) #
Yeah, but another hitter will take Wagner's spot which doesn't really help that much.
Glevin - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 03:52 PM EST (#455944) #
The lineup is OK. Probably around middle of the pack somewhere. Lineups, except for the Dodgers, aren't what they used to be. Every team has holes. I mean, this team had the 13th highest WRC+ last year. They lack elite hitters apart from Vladdy but have pretty good depth. If someone fits, I'd be happy if they added but they need a SP way more IMO.
scottt - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 03:57 PM EST (#455945) #
I don't care about the fans or the media.
The Toronto media is terrible. 
Stop asking players about their game strategies.
Have you tried listening to fans in an open line show?

Bichette is a one dimensional guy who isn't going to age well.
He's also had trouble staying on the field.
He needs a huge bounce back  year to get paid.

Bichette is like Gleyber Torres.
The Yankees let him walk with no interest in signing him.
Torres gave the Yankees 16.1 WAR and Bichette is at 17.5.

The Jays have some interesting shortstop prospects.
Jimenez, Kasevich, Nimmala.
I don't have any problem with these guys getting shots.
uglyone - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 04:02 PM EST (#455946) #
of the available names, the biggest upgrade purely offensively would probably be Bregman over Clement.

in general though any bat we add now is taking up playing time from some pretty decent options that deserve a chance. if we do sign some more bats it would be smart to try to turn our solid depth bats into more pitching arms through trades imo.



And I don't know why it would be stunning for Springer to outhit Bo this year. It takes a stronger man than me to just ignore Bo's horrendous year last year, which was far, far worse than anything Springer has ever done.

Last 3yrs wrc+:

* Springer: 95, 104, 133, 140, 143
* Bichette: 71, 124, 129, 122, 120

in fact 2023 is the only year Bo's ever outhit Springer.

and last year the babip gods seemed to hate George (.245) more than they hated Bo (.269).


Do i expect Bo to still be the better hitter this year? yeah.

Would i be shocked if he wasn't? not in the least.
uglyone - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 04:18 PM EST (#455947) #
using the available projected wrc+/ops+

* 1. 1B Wagner (26) 114
* 2. 2B Stefanic (28) 107
* 3. RF Roden (25) 108
* 4. DH Schneider (26) 105
* 5. LF Lukes (30) 105
* 6. 3B Barger (25) 104
* 7. SS Jimenez (24) 99
* 8. CF Loperfido (26) 90
* 9. C

* X. UT Schreck (24) 99
* X. OF Berroa (26) 83 / Straw (30) 73
* X. IF Kasevich (24) 83
* X. C

* X. UT McAdoo (23) 94
* X. OF Clase (23) 85
* X. IF Orelvis (23) 93
* X. C



plenty of guys that project to be useful mlb stuff this year. if we're signing some more big bats ahead of them then we should really be trying to move some of these guys for arms.
John Northey - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 04:40 PM EST (#455948) #
Using steamer for a quick comparison of projections for the AL East. wRC+ for the top 9 by Game projected (ie: no Roden or other prospects not expected to play)
  • Jays: 155-122-120-118-118-109-103-103-101 = Vlad-Santander-Kirk-Wagner-Bo-Springer-Gimenez-Clement-Varsho. Surprised they were all over 100, especially Gimenez
  • Yankees: 170-117-114-114-112-112-107-101-97 = Judge-Stanton-Goldschmidt-Chisholm-Bellinger-Dominguez-Wells-Volpe-LeMahieu. Just a touch top heavy in Judge, if he gets hurt they are screwed.
  • Baltimore: 149-125-122-119-117-116-115-108-107 = Henderson-Rutschman-Westburg-O'Hearn-Cowser-Mountcastle-O'Neill-Holliday-Mullins
  • Boston: 130-124-117-115-111-108-102-89-82 = Devers-Casas-Yoshida-Campbell-Duran-Abreu-Anthony-Rafaela-Story, note: they have a couple more with 50+ G (name wRC+) in Refsnyder 115 & Wong 90.
  • Tampa Bay: 136-122-119-117-112-110-109-108-100 = Diaz-Caminero-Aranda-Lowe-Morel-Jansen-Lowe-Palacios-DeLuca with Caballero 90 just missing at 75 G, and Walls 86 with 73 G - the Rays have a TON of guys with sub 130 G played, just 2 over.
So only Boston has a really weak bottom with 2 guys projected sub 100, Yankees the only other one without 9 at 100+. Weird that only Baltimore has a better #9 wRC+ projection than the Jays with Varsho at 101. Barger is at 103, Schneider 104, Lukes 105 for guys we expect to see on the roster for chunks of the season. Heineman at 76 (hopefully he gets as few PA as possible), Loperfido 83, Jiménez 99, Roden 109. I was sure the Jays wouldn't look as good as they do here. 120+ wRC+ (ie: very good hitter) Jays with 3, Baltimore 3, Boston 2, TB 2, Yanks 1 - the narrative we hear would make one think the Yankees had more than 1 (oh but what a 1). Guys sub 110 (ie: at risk of being subpar hitters) Jays 4, Sox 4, TB 3, Yankees 3, O's 2 - OK that fits, more guys at risk of being sub-par than others, but also more with a shot at greatness.

Profar is projected at 116, Bregman 122, Alonso 125 - all would help, with Profar & Alonso likely replacing Wagner (118) and Bregman replacing Clement (103). So for maximum impact Bregman is the choice, although Alonso could cost Clement and Wagner a lot of playing time (Vlad at 3B often) so lots of variables to consider. Note: Profar is a switch hitter, his vs L/vs R is almost dead even lifetime and just a 10 point wRC+ spread last year (better vs LH). Profar I see as super variable (wRC+ last 5 years 113-87-110-78-139 (most with SD except '23 in Colorado mostly where he sucked 74 wRC+) and given the furthest east he has ever been for a home team was Texas I suspect he will stay out west most likely.
John Northey - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 04:50 PM EST (#455949) #
Hmm... for fun, what does the Dodgers top 9 look like? And the White Sox for the other extreme.
  • Dodgers: 156-141-138-118-116-113-111-98-97 = Ohtani-Betts-Freeman-Smith-Hernandez-Muncy-Conforto-Edman-Kim with Pages getting 71 G with a 111. Bit surprised they have 2 sub 100's, but that top with 3 over 130 is 'yikes!'
  • White Sox: 111-109-104-104-103-95-95-92-79 = Vaughn-Tauchman-Benintendi-Robert-Vargas-Sosa-Rojas-Baldwin-Montgomery. Ouch, 4 guys sub 100, just one over 110. Surprised as I expected even worse.
Always fun to look for extremes.
John Northey - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 05:08 PM EST (#455950) #
Love some of those backup choices uglyone - Schneider should be a lock on the bench along with Lukes. 13th man will be tough to figure out though - do you use a guy like Straw for pure speed/defense or let a kid like Jimenez sit most days? Ideally they get one more hitter so Clement becomes a bench guy mostly while Lukes takes that 13th slot, with Schneider being mostly an OF backup.

Definitely see trades coming though. Rumor mill is that Seattle needs IF depth and is willing to trade pitching for it. Could be a good fit. Luis Castillo is one they are dangling ($24 mil a year but damn fine starter), good ol' LH reliever Tayler Saucedo has had 2 solid years in their pen and Trent Thornton has become a good setup man for them. A few interesting possibilities there. If the Jays sign Bregman then those become a lot more interesting.
uglyone - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 05:23 PM EST (#455951) #
Schneider's gonna have to earn it i think. He was a liability last year.

Can all those guys there be optioned?
92-93 - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 05:25 PM EST (#455952) #
Wagner has 86 career PA. A good hitter taking his spot (he has one?) in the order and pushing him to the bench/AAA would help quite a bit.

Springer is 35 and Bo is 26. It would be great if they both put up a .800 OPS, but let's be realistic about the expectations for a guy on the decline in his mid-30s.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 05:30 PM EST (#455953) #
Post the projections for Bo and Springer for offense. There isn't a massive difference.
JB21 - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 05:37 PM EST (#455954) #
Fangraphs
Bo wRC+ 117 (avg of the 4, they're all close)
Springer wRC+ 108 (same note as above)
greenfrog - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 05:38 PM EST (#455955) #
Bregman has around a 2-3 WAR edge over Clement in the 2025 projections. That’s a pretty significant difference in critical marginal wins for the Blue Jays this year.

I’m torn about adding Bregman, though (the trash can issues plus the injury/decline issues).
lexomatic - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 05:57 PM EST (#455956) #
Surprised as I expected even worse.

Always fun to look for extremes.

I wouldnt be surprised if the Marlins lineup is bruuuuutal.
uglyone - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 06:17 PM EST (#455957) #
"Thomas Hall @Hall_Thomas_ · Follow Ross Atkins says adding Myles Straw's remaining contract -- nearly $12M -- will have "zero impact, only positive impact" on #BlueJays' ability to continue spending this winter. Adds that opportunity cost will play a major role in remaining moves, particularly on pitching front."

weird thing to say imo - there's no opportunity cost to adding even mediocre pitching right now - we need more arms. there's plenty of opportunity cost to adding mediocre bats, though.
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 06:28 PM EST (#455958) #
John - is historical WRC available? Like '92 or '93 Jays for comparison?
greenfrog - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 06:45 PM EST (#455959) #
The “opportunity cost” comment sounds like a fancy way of saying the remaining money is not unlimited — if we make move X, we won’t have enough money to make move Y.
uglyone - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 06:47 PM EST (#455960) #

1993 wRC+

* CF White 109
* 2B Alomar 142
* DH Molitor 144
* LF Carter 108
* 1B Olerud 179
* SS Fernandez 114
* 3B Sprague 85
* C Border 72
* RF Coles 85 / Henderson 90

* OF Jackson 56 / Butler 104
* OF Ward 59 / Canate 63
* IF Schofield 49 / Griffin 25
* C Knorr 98



1992

* CF White 93
* 2B Alomar 135
* DH Winfield 140
* LF Carter 120
* 1B Olerud 127
* RF Maldonado 128
* 3B Gruber 71
* C Borders 85
* SS Lee 89

* UT Kent 113 / Sprague 72
* OF Bell 91
* IF Griffin 53
* C Tabler 68 / Myers 79
uglyone - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 06:48 PM EST (#455961) #
I assumed "opportunity cost" referred to not being able to give playing time to internal options but the atkins translator may be off.
Glevin - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 06:51 PM EST (#455962) #
Wagner is someone who deserves to get playing time. Not only because of his great major league debut but also because he killed it in AAA. 130 WRC+ in AAA, 125 in majors. 147 WRC+ the year before in the minors. Why are you sending that guy down? He's 26. Let him play. Jays need to be prepared to use Springer as 4th/5th OF if it makes sense. Would like to see what guys do in spring to win spots but Loperfido and Roden both should be in majors IMO. Jays gave way to many abs to Schneider last year so hopefully if he gets them this year it's only because he's earned them.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 06:55 PM EST (#455963) #
Player Games SB HR AVG OBP SLG

Player A 143 9 19 .278 .324 .421

Player B 143 14 22 .244 .319 .412

Springer and Bo profile similarly offensively for 2024 using Fangraphs. Talk of shipping off Springer and not Bo is not logical unless you think the team needs the extra 6.4 million difference in salary.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 07:01 PM EST (#455964) #
I interpret that "opportunity cost" comment as Ross saying there is a higher cost to take on with SP addition vs bats. Essentially they have to acknowledge that Manoah and Francis and Rodriguez could all be strong contributors by July and you don't want any of them blocked by a Nick Pivetta or Jose Quintana. Compare this to adding Bregman or Alonso who create lower opportunity cost for the 2025 season with the alternatives in house being Clement and Barger. That's my reading. Essentially top of the market arms (none really left) or top of market bats (arguable if Alonso and Bregman qualify).
greenfrog - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 07:06 PM EST (#455965) #
It’s good that the Blue Jays are trying to salvage the off-season.

But given their evident stockpiles of cash, it’s easy to imagine a different off-season where they acquired Burnes, Sasaki, Santander, plus…? That could have dramatically turned the organization’s fortunes around.

It’s unfortunate that those valuable dollars are going to somewhat lesser players.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 07:09 PM EST (#455966) #
Unfortunate is correct, LA has left the Jays as bad luck runner ups.
uglyone - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 07:14 PM EST (#455967) #
sometimes the 2nd tier FAs end up better than the top tier.

and in an environment where all the top FAs are going to the same single team, then the impact of the 2nd tier FAs suddenly automatically increases relative to every team other than that one team, so that's kinda cool.

if the Jays got brave and decided to get 2 or 3 of the biggest names left for big but not huge prices then they could come out looking pretty damn good tbh.

but not if they just halfass it.


scottt - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 07:22 PM EST (#455968) #
I take it the other way.
The opportunity cost is not the money.
It's having to play someone instead of someone else.
scottt - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 07:31 PM EST (#455969) #
They could improve 3B with Bregman, but that might take the largest contract in franchise history.
That's why it doesn't make sense to me.
Might as well just extend Vlad.

Improving LF seems too marginal. They have a number of guys already who could play part-time there.
Santander is a below average defender, but for left field, he's probably going to be pretty close to average. 
It's more about optimizing the bench.
Two of the left bats are Geminez and Varsho.
I'd take another left bat on the bench.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 07:33 PM EST (#455970) #
"I take it the other way.
The opportunity cost is not the money.
It's having to play someone instead of someone else."

We're saying this.
greenfrog - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 07:55 PM EST (#455971) #
where all the top FAs are going to the same single team

Snell and Sasaki - Dodgers
Soto - Mets
Burnes - Diamondbacks
Fried - Yankees
Adames - Giants
dalimon5 - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 08:16 PM EST (#455972) #
I think you know what he meant. All top free agents want to play LA and be paid by LA. Sure they didn't sign Burnes because they already had a full rotation of his calibre or better...kind of illustrates his point, doesn't it? Soto didn't apply because he's going to be a DH and they already have Ohtani there, etc etc. cherry picking a few names (short list too) also helps his point.

RP free agents - Scott, Treinan and Yates all went to LAD. Once the Dodgers are done everyone else gets a chance to bid.
greenfrog - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 08:25 PM EST (#455973) #
I actually just went through the Fangraphs top 10 free agents (and added Sasaki).

I left off some names like Bregman and Flaherty because they haven’t signed yet.

Of course the Dodgers are the dominant team in MLB and in acquiring elite talent right now. But they aren’t the only one competing in that tier and that was my point (that it’s not just the Dodgers signing the best and leaving everyone else to sign B free agents, which is what UO suggested is happening).
uglyone - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 08:37 PM EST (#455974) #
i guess my point was more that we still have a chance to improve ourselves more on the FA market than any team in the division. if we go for it.
adrianveidt - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 08:47 PM EST (#455975) #
The players want to play in Hell-A because the Dodgers will pay them. The Blue Jays ownership can copy this clever but nefarious strategy.
John Northey - Tuesday, January 21 2025 @ 08:54 PM EST (#455976) #
Love how FanGraphs has an article by an O's fan which says Santander is worth about $70 mil over 5 based on ZiPS. That works out well. Suggests the Jays do have their methods and they are comparable to what FG uses. Or at least that what they did is reasonable and not crazy like Law says.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 06:49 AM EST (#455977) #
Sorry to be a wet blanket to our joyful roster musings, but Shi’a latest talks about something we missed from the presser - Ross said any further additions require ownership approval, which Shi says means they’re at their budget limit.

Other tidbits:
-the Jays are under the second tax threshold, thanks to the deferrals
-Miles Straw doesn’t count towards the CBT (I don’t understand why, it’s not explained either)
85bluejay - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 07:12 AM EST (#455978) #
Myles Straw is not on the 40 man roster so he doesn’t count for the CBT - the Red Sox did this with Cuban bust Rusney Castillo some years ago - wasn’t sure if mlb had changed the rules - if straw plays for the Jays or is added to the 40 man roster his salary will count.
greenfrog - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 07:26 AM EST (#455979) #
It seems positive that the front office is talking about potentially adding more players (and payroll), even if this would require ownership approval. It sounds as though another addition in free agency could happen. Hopefully the player added is a good one (Alonso or Bregman).
greenfrog - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 07:39 AM EST (#455980) #
If I had to guess, I would say the front office will add another significant player. This is a make-or-break year for them. Adding one more good player could make the difference between making the postseason and not making the postseason.
Glevin - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 08:50 AM EST (#455981) #
I think we need one more starter. Another good hitter would be helpful as well but starter is essential. The AL has gotten significantly worse this year losing Burnes, Soto, and Tucker (and possibly Bregman) while getting back Max Fried and Christian Walker. ZIPS gave the Jays around 84-85 wins before Santander signing which would put them right in the middle of competing for a wildcard spot. I really like the team's hitting depth but starting depth is weak. I am hoping a better bullpen helps starters out a fair bit (how can it not?).
scottt - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 09:06 AM EST (#455982) #
Bregman is the least likely. He's still holding on for 6+ years.
Alonso would make things a bit complicated with Vladdy probably playing some 3B.
Profar would be a KK type of move. Could be really good or really bad.
A 5th starter seems the most likely outcome.
Gerry - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 09:24 AM EST (#455984) #
Baseball America have released their list of the top 100 prospects. Ricky Tiedemann sneaks in at number 100 for the Jays only representative.

BA also list some players who just missed including Trey Yesavage, Arjun Nimmala and Orelvis Martinez.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 09:33 AM EST (#455985) #
I didn't realize how bad Profar is in the outfield... Profar in LF is about equal to Santander (RF) in negative DRS (-7/-8) but far worse in OAA (-6/-2).
John Northey - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 09:46 AM EST (#455987) #
I pretty much agree scottt - a starter is most likely, Profar would need to be a DH with the odd time in LF, Alonso would be fun due to the juggling with Vlad (hey, I love chaos sometimes) but is probably asking too much still, Bregman would be the best choice but safe to say he is asking waaaay too much still. An article from last week says he is still chasing 5 years and $200+ million which seems unrealistic to put it mildly. I suspect he will be sitting out until the season is going if he doesn't accept reality. Wouldn't be shocked if Springer talks with him about it all, and tries to get him to come here with a realistic proposal (5/$150 might be reasonable, but that would be the limit - to save face could defer a lot to create a bigger up front number and have a 6th/7th year as options that are triggered by health).
scottt - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 09:57 AM EST (#455989) #
LF is a funny thing.
Mostly outfielder don't play in LF in the minors so they have limited experience in judging balls off the bat from there.
Taking bad routes affect quick players but has less impact on slower players.
A good arm in LF is only useful if the runners don't respect it.
Gimenez is supposed to be the best relay player in baseball.
scottt - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 10:05 AM EST (#455990) #
In an alternate universe, they could have played Gabriel Moreno in LF until a spot opened up behind the plate.
That's what teams used to do.
It's just that the spot became open only after they added Gurriel to the deal.
greenfrog - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 10:10 AM EST (#455991) #
Adding “a starter” sounds good in theory, but now that Burnes and Sasaki are off the table, who would make sense as an addition? Flaherty carries a lot of injury risk and he may have little margin of error with his FB (see recent Fangraphs article). Pivetta is arguably just OK and the Blue Jays would have to give up another draft pick. Scherzer might be a good addition but he’s very risky and would he be enough to put the Blue Jays over the top?

If the Blue Jays can spend a maximum of 1/15 or so, Scherzer makes sense. If they can spend substantially more, then Alonso could be a good addition. I could see him having a big year in 2025. He just turned 30. The team can sort out the positional issues. It’s OK to have a bit of redundancy.
John Northey - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 10:17 AM EST (#455993) #
Good point greenfrog - to me the ideal now is a starter trade - use some of that infield depth to get Luis Castillo from Seattle (rumored to be trying to trade him for infielders) - he is a solid 2-4 WAR starter who has 150+ IP each year from 2018 to 2024 (obviously not 2020 - but did get 12 starts that year). Entering age 32 season, has 3 years $72.5 mil owing with a 4th year $25 mil vesting option (based on '27s IP). He would fit the Bassitt role of inning eating mid-rotation starter which would help reduce the weight on the pen going forward. I do see a strong case for signing Scherzer as he should be good when healthy, and when not you just plug Rodriguez back in or a kid if they are doing well in AAA until Manoah is healthy in August (with luck).
92-93 - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 10:20 AM EST (#455994) #
This Wagner love is reminding me of the Schneider talk from last offseason. An .853 OPS at 25 in the PCL is hardly "kill"ing AAA; for comparison, Horwitz had a .945 OPS at the same age in the IL. It's funny, Glevin, that you think the Jays gave way too many ABs to Schneider last year, but that they should "Let (Wagner) play".
greenfrog - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 10:32 AM EST (#455995) #
Say the Blue Jays make the postseason in 2025.

Who would you want in the middle of your lineup: Alonso (career postseason OPS: 1.003) or Wagner?

Do you want to win and advance in the postseason?
dalimon5 - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 10:39 AM EST (#455996) #
I'm optimistic this FO can keep using the deferred money tactic to lower the CBT annual salary when going after Bregman or Alonso. It's reported that Santander's annual salary after deferrals will be about 14 million/year for Toronto. That's a steal.

Santander was pegged for 18-20 million/year so that's 20% - 30% savings applied to the CBT annually.

Bregman pegged at about 30 million/year and Alonso 25 million/year (before cold markets for them). Take of the 20-30% with a similar deferred deal as to Santander and you get 21/24 million/year for Breagman and 17.5-20 million/year for Alonso.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 10:40 AM EST (#455997) #
If any GM feels that Will Wagner can hit like Steamer thinks he can (118 wRC+), then I’d probably trade him to that GM. That GM doesn’t appear to be Atkins whose first move was to absorb $96M for a 2B.

I agree that a SP is a bigger need than a bat but they still need a bat. If Will Wagner is the DH then that’s likely not a playoff caliber lineup.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 10:44 AM EST (#455998) #
Would you prefer Alonso and Quantrill or Matz or Luis Castillo without the power bat?
92-93 - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 10:49 AM EST (#455999) #
They definitely need another SP, preferably one with a high ceiling. They simply can't enter the season with Francis and Bowden having full-time roles and expect to make it through the season. If it's between a bat and an arm, they need the arm more.
mathesond - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 10:55 AM EST (#456000) #
Heh, aren't Francis and Bowden the same player?

(I assume you meant to include Yariel)
Glevin - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 11:05 AM EST (#456001) #
"This Wagner love is reminding me of the Schneider talk from last offseason. An .853 OPS at 25 in the PCL is hardly "kill"ing AAA; for comparison, Horwitz had a .945 OPS at the same age in the IL. It's funny, Glevin, that you think the Jays gave way too many ABs to Schneider last year, but that they should "Let (Wagner) play"."

I don't think it's funny at all. They should have let Schenider play last year because he earned it. They should have also sent him down in July or something once he was awful for a sustained period. Letting someone play and giving them unlimited ABs even when they are struggling aren't the same thing. If the Jays give Wagner regular ABs and he sucks, they should also send him down. (before 400 abs though please). Wagner has earned a shot and has nothing left to prove at AAA. What's the point of sending down a 26 YO who had a 130 WRC+ in AAA?
Glevin - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 11:31 AM EST (#456002) #
" If Will Wagner is the DH then that’s likely not a playoff caliber lineup."

That's living 5-10 years ago. Teams don't have great hitters up and down the lineup. The median DH WRC+ was 106. Yankees made the World Series with Stanton who has a 116 WRC+. Padres were a WS calibre team with Arraez and his 109 WRC+ at DH. Cleveland had Kyle Manzardo at DH with a 98 WRC+. It's not about saying "Will Wagner is the DH" it's about being able to rotate guys through the position or give it to someone has earned it.

"Say the Blue Jays make the postseason in 2025.

Who would you want in the middle of your lineup: Alonso (career postseason OPS: 1.003) or Wagner?"

That's not the question. Of course Alonso is a better hitter than Wagner/etc.. If Jays could get Alonso for a year or 2, go for it but he is an awkward fit on the team, plugging your DH spot full-time is not a great idea, and spending that money elsewhere would have more value.


Also, I don't want Luis Castillo. I don't think people understand what a pitcher's park Seattle is right now (more of a pitcher park than Coors is a hitter's park) and Castillo's numbers are dropping anyway. His XFIP Away was 4.51 last year. (at home 3.26). The year before 4.31 to 3.36. I think the reason Seattle is having trouble trading their starters is that other teams know Seattle is an extreme pitcher's park but the Mariners seem to value their guys higher than that. His fastball was also down 1.5 MPH last year, Ks were down, BABIP, up, etc...Not someone I want to be spending $24M a year on.
uglyone - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 11:31 AM EST (#456003) #
Unfortunately the more accurate parallel with Schneider last year would actually be Bowden Francis this year, in terms of someone who came out with a surprisingly good half season performance and then became an assumed starter the next year.

Except that Schneider's half year was considerably better than Francis' half year, both in top line and underlying numbers, had a better milb track record, and was a few years younger to boot.
scottt - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 11:31 AM EST (#456004) #
Schneider was slugging .603 in 23 but hit only for .191 last year. OPS+ of 174 vs 78. They had to give him a shot at duplicating but now he needs to earn his time back.
Wagner hit .305 and slugged .451. He's a line drive hitter so his OPS is not going to top .900.
He didn't seem to have any weaknesses last year, other than left handed pitchers. 
Now that Horwitz is gone, some of the guys who hit last year (Clase, Lukes, Wagner) need to get a chance to play and take playing time away from stars who underperform.
92-93 - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 11:33 AM EST (#456005) #
They don't need to send him down, but they also don't need to hand him an everyday role if they fancy themselves playoff contenders. There's plenty of ABs to go around, even if they add another bat.
uglyone - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 11:36 AM EST (#456006) #
Wagner's not the only inexperienced bat that deserves some playing time and who doesn't make a whole lotta sense to never give a chance to. Jays have quite a number of them right now.

Some of them are OF, which would let us move a Santander or Springer to DH if they hit well.
greenfrog - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 11:46 AM EST (#456007) #
The Blue Jays should want a strong lineup in the postseason, since they don’t have a dominant rotation or bullpen.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 11:50 AM EST (#456008) #
“That's living 5-10 years ago. Teams don't have great hitters up and down the lineup.”

It’s not about having great hitters in every spot, it’s about what the Jays need in order to have a better shot to contend. Adding wins is important, but a 2.5 WAR from Alonso with 30-40 home runs helps this team significantly based on their needs. Even if you think Wagner is an above average bat, which is far from a certainty, his skill set offensively is not ideal for what the Jays need unless he’s playing 2B (which he won’t barring a Bo trade).

If the Jays had a Bo Bichette type of prospect ready, then I’d agree leave the DH spot open to get PA’s for young players. The Jays AAA depth is far more valuable as just that, depth, than they are being plugged into everyday roles in a season in which the team is trying to contend. The team does need at least one of their young players to surprise and do well, if not more, but that can come during the season rather than counting on it from the get go. As long as they are blocked up good players and not by 2024 Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 11:57 AM EST (#456009) #
Yeah it's clear this team needs a high upside rotation arm and more power ideally. Even a bulk bullpen arm and another Lefty arm. WAR be damned.

Kyle Schwarber in 2023 = 1.0 WAR (less than what Clase, Lukes and Loperfido project in 2025 in limited playing time.)

2023 he hit 47 HR 104 RBIs and wRC+ of 120. I'll take that 1.0 WAR every day over the defensive-value increased WAR of other players...for this team which lacks the, ahem, "low hanging fruit."
jz6pwc - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 12:08 PM EST (#456010) #
"Santander was pegged for 18-20 million/year so that's 20% - 30% savings applied to the CBT annually."

Not sure the math is correct on this. Or the reporting on what Santanders annual actually looks like against the CBT, wherever that is... but my understanding is the deferral simply takes the contract value and applies an annual deprecation to it, to calculate its present value amount. Using that method his CBT hit is more like a 5% reduction per year.

I might have misunderstood though. I hope it is 20%!
scottt - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 12:13 PM EST (#456012) #
You can't really plan the postseason.
Judge was bad in the World Series and Stanton was great.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 12:15 PM EST (#456013) #
" The Blue Jays should want a strong lineup in the postseason since they don't have a dominant rotation or bullpen."

Or a smart manager.
greenfrog - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 12:20 PM EST (#456014) #
You can’t plan the postseason, but you can improve your odds of success.
uglyone - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 12:22 PM EST (#456015) #
For a team on the bubble like the jays, you probably want to make sure you give your better in house options some real opportunities, and then figure out which hole is must need of an impact upgrade come the trade deadline.

I'm all for signing Alonso or Bregman or both, but the fact is we have a whole bunch of in house bats that we should want to give opportunity to, and we just don't have any in house arms that look like they don't still need to prove themselves in AAA before demanding any playing time here.

If there's a priority right now, imo it has to be pitching.

jerjapan - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 12:25 PM EST (#456016) #
Funny, I always see Schneider's problem as being too smart for his own good.  The whole management team suffers from this problem. 

Shapiro clearly insisted that Atkins is doing excellent work several times in my ambit, so I do hope they amp up their aggression and risk-taking in this prove it or lose it season. 
dalimon5 - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 12:39 PM EST (#456017) #
I pulled the number from Shi Davidi's article and weighed it against the MLBTradeRumors projected annual salary then calculated the difference.


"The complicated contract includes an opt-out after the third year the Blue Jays can negate with an option for a sixth year that pushes the total up to $110-million. There are significant deferrals that drop the deal’s annual-average value for Competitive Balance Tax purposes to roughly $14 million."

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/complex-santander-deal-symbolic-of-blue-jays-off-season/
greenfrog - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 12:50 PM EST (#456018) #
The trade deadline has not really helped the Blue Jays much in recent seasons. With the state of the team’s farm system, I would not count on summer trades to significantly improve the roster.

The hardest thing to acquire is impact talent. That is what the Blue Jays should be targeting now, not more depth players.
jz6pwc - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 01:11 PM EST (#456019) #
Okay. I must have it wrong. I thought the formula was this:

salary - deferrals + (remaining - "Federal mid-term pv rate") / contract term

so ($57.5m + ($35m - 4.43%)) / 5

($57.5+$28.2) / 5 = ~ $17.1m on luxury

** assumes no interest on the deferred amount and payment begins in year 6.

I tested this calc on Ohtanis contract and it works for him.

SK in NJ - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 01:16 PM EST (#456020) #
Schwarber is a good example of what I'm referring to. You wouldn't be acquiring him for WAR, you'd be doing it to add a 120 or higher wRC+ bat with 40 HR power, the latter being something that only a handful of players can do on an annual basis nowadays. Alonso is in line with that thinking. Not the perfect roster fit, but what he does well is exactly what the Jays need and it's not something that is easy to find, internally or otherwise.

To put it in perspective, only 6 teams had 200 or more HR last season, and 5 of them made the playoffs (the other was the D-Backs who missed it because of a tiebreaker). The two players the Jays acquired to play OF and DH last season had 10 HR combined (Kiermaier and Turner). Adding Horwitz brings it to 22 combined. Santander and Alonso had 78 home runs combined last season.

Obviously the Jays still need to fill the rotation hole, and they've added to the pen already (wouldn't hurt to upgrade there if possible), but adding legitimate power like that is only going to help them put a competitive team on the field.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 01:28 PM EST (#456021) #
Perhaps Alonso to TOR would mean Vlad to 3B. I read that Alonso doesn't want to DH which further dries out his market. Vlad and Bo on the left side is not ideal but it would mean Santander can play DH and someone better defensively can play LF.

Another option is to play Vlad at 3B, Bo at 2B, Gimenez at SS and Alonso at 1B and rotate everyone through the DH slot while Santander shares time there and in LF. Essentially Loperfido and Clement would play half the week whenever one of Vlad, Alonso and Santander is DHing.

Maybe it all makes sense and Barger and Wagner are used to bring back a bullpen piece like Helsley or SP upgrade.

Maybe it's all no bueno with Kirk needing time at DH.

John Northey - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 01:36 PM EST (#456022) #
I suspect the Jays are hunting for impact talent but it is damn hard to get it. Thus the Sasaki, Soto, Burnes hunts which didn't work out. Now it is find the best you can and Santander fit that for LF/DH, next is figuring out 3B/DH - Bregman is the best fit talent wise, but might not work budget wise.

Bregman - wRC+ past 3 years = 137-126-118 but looking at Statcast figures his EV is steady, his line drive and barrels are slightly down but not enough to note, and his hard hit % last year was his highest ever. He also is hitting the ball the other way more than ever which is a bad sign. The more I dig the less I like.

Alonso - wRC+ past 3 years - 141-121-122 EV is steady, Launch Angle dropped 4 points but matches his rookie year when he hit 53 HR, Barrels dropped but about the same as his 141 wRC+ year, solid hard hit %. More to the opposite field, but not by a lot. Seems in better shape than Bregman going forward.

Profar - we all know his wRC+ dances up and down like a yo-yo, his EV, max EV, Barrels, and hard hit% were all career highs at age 31 - I really don't trust that, seems like a year where everything went right for him and given his history I'd expect a collapse in 2025. I suspect most GM's fear the same, thus why he is still sitting out there. A real dice roll.

Ha-Seong Kim is the only other batter on the market of any significant value and he is out for a few months probably and never was known for his bat anyways.

After that comes trades which are very unpredictable - we don't know who is available, who might be willing/able to shift positions, etc. Nolan Arenado we know is available but he has a no-trade clause that he already used once to avoid Houston so I can't imagine he'd waive it to come here. Looking at the best 3B I don't see any as likely to be traded. We thought Brent Rooker might be available in trade early on but then the A's signed him long term cheaply. The Cubs seemed to want to trade Seiya Suzuki but after the Bellinger trade they aren't as anxious. Not really seeing much outside of the Jays eating a TON of cash to get Manny Machado out of SD which seems unlikely (owed over $300 mil and in his 30's already). Anyone read of any good trade rumors other than the dumb ones that Sporting News and Jays Journal keep pumping out (Vlad to be traded to team xyz for 3-4-5 prospects!!!) for clickbait.
scottt - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 02:11 PM EST (#456025) #
Santander is not that bad in LF.
He's barely below average in right.
uglyone - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 02:20 PM EST (#456028) #
Jays sign Bethancourt to a milb deal.

Should be good enough to compete with Heineman for backup catcher i guess.
John Northey - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 04:53 PM EST (#456031) #
Nice - Bethancourt was a top prospect once (peaked at #69 BA), but never became good in the majors. 72 OPS+ lifetime, but in 2022 had a 100 over 100 games. He catches, plays 1B, and has played 2B and 3B in emergencies in the majors as well as thrown 9 2/3 IP with a 51 ERA+ (10 ER). Very solid AAA signing imo. Richard Lovelady, a LH reliever, also signed 99 1/3 IP in majors over 5 seasons with an 88 ERA+ 3.3 BB/9 vs 8.2 K/9 1.1 HR/9 - all decent but not 'wow' numbers. Good to have in AAA as insurance for the pen. Both are NRI's. Hard to ever complain about those, but both of these guys could be useful if things break right for them (and break wrong for others).
uglyone - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 07:22 PM EST (#456033) #

Sasaki says the stability of the Dodgers front office is the No. 1 thing that stood out to him.

Ohtani/Yamamoto influence: "It wasn't a priority for me if there was or wasn't a Japanese player on the team." https://t.co/xcdU83Khuk

— Brandon Wile (@Brandon_N_Wile) January 22, 2025
Paul D - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 07:47 PM EST (#456035) #
Doesn't that seem like a really weird reason to sign a six year contract? Almost unbelievably so?
scottt - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 07:54 PM EST (#456036) #
Always being a heavy favourite to win the division could be a reason.
That they haven't churned the front office in a long time? Yeah, right.
Why not the hue of the uniform or the name of the mascot?
greenfrog - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 07:59 PM EST (#456037) #
I think the BA top 100 prospects list could be looked at as glass half-empty (only one Blue Jays prospect on the list). But another way to look at it is that Toronto has four prospects (Tiedemann, Orelvis, Nimmala, Yesavage) on BA's top 115 -- if you include their "15 who just missed" list.

Still lots of work to be done in rebuilding the farm system, but there are a handful of pieces there to start with.

As for Yesavage, BA says he "does not have a future plus weapon, though everything but his curveball grades as above-average." Hopefully he does better than Deck McGuire did as a Blue Jays farmhand. It sounds as though he has better stuff than Deck did.
uglyone - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 08:06 PM EST (#456038) #
i would definitely look at the half full version, given how little separates the bottom 50 on the list.
greenfrog - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 09:00 PM EST (#456039) #
LA not only has the best luck in landing unicorn baseball players, it seems to have the best luck in landing unicorn baseball cards. Per ESPN:

An 11-year-old collector in Los Angeles has scooped up a one-of-a-kind baseball card featuring National League Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes.

Topps announced Tuesday that the card, which features the Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher's autograph and a patch from a game-worn jersey, had been found.

Now comes the fun part: seeing what it is worth on the open market.

The collector could get a massive haul if willing to trade it to the Pirates, who have put together a package that includes 30 years' worth of season tickets behind home plate at PNC Park in exchange for the card.
Glevin - Wednesday, January 22 2025 @ 11:38 PM EST (#456040) #
Agree with Ugly. Top prospects are top prospects but difference between like #70 and #110 is almost nothing. System isn't fantastic but it's fine.
Michael - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 02:18 AM EST (#456041) #
Another way to look at it is there are 30 teams so in the top 115-120 each team deserves to have about 4 players. So the Jays are averagish from that metric.

But as others point out, it really is a top heavy power distribution thing where the top few ranked players are so much more valuable. You can argue where the cut off is - top 10, 15, 25? But really once you make it past that point the differences are small. To put it another way, I'd certainly rather have #1+#115 versus say #40+41, and I'd probably rather have #1+#115 versus even #20+21. Might be an interesting game to say which touching pair would you take over 1+115?
Joe - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 07:40 AM EST (#456042) #
John, why is hitting the ball the other way a bad sign? Earnest question!
Petey Baseball - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 07:44 AM EST (#456043) #
Whither Ryan Yarborough? There hasn’t been a lot of talk about bringing him back, but he has been a key part of some great pitching staffs in his career, with his ability to pitch situationally and in bulk. If he can be had for a one year deal, Jays should get on that.

Just randomly looked up the Anthopolous Marlins trade. 7 players (5 minor leaguers) traded for 5 big leaguers. Could you imagine Atkins pulling off that kind of blockbuster? Absolutely not.
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 07:55 AM EST (#456044) #
Marlins have come and since that trade and said that AA didn't want to pull the trigger so they leaked the trade to the press and forced the Jays to do it because they knew it was a win for them.
ayjackson - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 08:55 AM EST (#456045) #
Sounds like a half-truth.
bpoz - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 09:16 AM EST (#456046) #
I think AA's best trade was getting Donaldson followed by D Price. Atkin's best trade IMO was getting Berrios followed by Chapman.
Glevin - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 09:19 AM EST (#456047) #
Meh on Yarbrough. Lots of guys like that around and not sure he'd even make the team. Pitched well in Toronto but small sample size. Is consistently a 4.50-5.00 XFIP kind of guy. Jays should be upgrading SP and moving Rodriguez to pen.

Nobody is making that Marlins/Jays trade anymore. Teams just don't bulk take on big contracts anymore and a team taking on those salaries from the Marlins might ask for talent along with it now, certainly not give much back. There's just way more focus on value these days where cheap major leaguers are worth a lot more.
scottt - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 09:27 AM EST (#456048) #
Bregman's power is on the pull side.
In 2024, he had 1 HR on the opposite side and 6 doubles--3 of which were along the line.
So basically, he's hitting more singles.
It's not unlike Springer.
scottt - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 09:40 AM EST (#456049) #
One of AA's best trade was to swap Vernon Wells for Napoli and Juan Rivera.
Then he had to swap Napoli for Frank Francisco. Napoli hit 54 HR for Texas.
Totally wrong on Arencibia.
scottt - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 09:50 AM EST (#456050) #
Teams with limited payroll never trade their prospects for vets.
Teams that have money make those trade only when they can't find what they need on the free agent market.
Trading the prospects to increase the payroll was an unusual strategy.
greenfrog - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 09:50 AM EST (#456051) #
Absolutely right about the Wells trade, although it’s worth mentioning that Napoli was no longer a productive player by 2015-2016. So he wouldn’t have helped with the Blue Jays contending teams those years.
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 10:35 AM EST (#456052) #
Here is the actual quote:

"Former Marlins president of baseball operations David Samson went on to share that the trade was in jeopardy of not being approved by Selig, “He had to meet with the Rogers guys to confirm that they were of sound mind and body, to do that deal.

Samson also went on to mention how the Blue Jays had already leaked the deal to the media before Johnson had failed his physical, and when given the choice by the Marlins to back out of the deal, the Blue Jays still went through with it not wanting to deal with the certain backlash that would ensue had the deal been nixed."

Source: Foul Territory Podcast with former Marlins President David Samson

Hodgie - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 11:08 AM EST (#456053) #
Taking anything that David Samson says as fact is certainly a choice.
John Northey - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 11:31 AM EST (#456054) #
A couple of things...
When a power hitter starts hitting to the opposite field it normally is a sign they are losing that power and trying to adapt - adapting is good, but it also means their value is about to drop significantly.
For 2013's Marlin trade the Jays gave up (WAR post trade in brackets) Henderson Alvarez III (6.1), Anthony DeSclafani (10.5, but 6.0 pre free agency), Yunel Escobar (6.7), Adeiny Hechavarría (5.0), Jake Marisnick (12.0), Jeff Mathis (-1.5), and Justin Nicolino (-0.2) = 34.1 pre-free agency value for these prospects. The Jays got Jose Reyes (6.5 here then dumped, 0.2 after), Emilio Bonifácio (-0.3), John Buck (3.7), Mark Buehrle (6.9), Josh Johnson (-1.5) = 15.3 - a very poor trade no matter how one cuts it. AA really should've canceled it and tried to redo it when he had the chance.
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 11:43 AM EST (#456055) #
"Taking anything that David Samson says as fact is certainly a choice."

Besides my family and doctor this statement applies to everyone else. Youtube, podcasts, journalists, agents, fellow baseball fans... taking anything written, implied or said as fact is a choice. You are correct.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 12:45 PM EST (#456056) #
This trade narrative conflicts pretty strongly with what was said at the time, at least to my memory. Everyone was complaining about the Marlins dumping stars for minor leaguers and Selig reviewed it due to the cash involved. It was seen as an anti-competitive move by the Marlins. People thought they were crazy, not Toronto. Otherwise how do you explain the Jays being the media darling and WS favourites heading into the season?

It may be true that Johnson failed the physical, but I have never seen that before.

Also, to John. The trade didn’t work out because Reyes blew out his ankle and Johnson his pitching arm. Depending on the truth of the Johnson physical, I don’t understand the view that this made the trade bad, because those are factors outside of the Jays’ control. To me, the question is always “did they pay a fair price at the time” and at the time everyone thought the Marlins should have gotten more. On top of that, the trade signalled a new era of contention for the Jays, and 2014/15/16 doesn’t happen without the Marlins trade IMV. So, I can’t see any case for the trade not being a success!
JB21 - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 01:01 PM EST (#456057) #
John, this doesn't take into consideration opportunities costs / playing time. Adeiny & Yunelcan't both play SS on the Jays, if Yunel moves to 3B do we not acquire JD? Claiming it's a poor trade no matter how one cuts it is an incredibly black and white statement in a world that isn't black and white.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 01:05 PM EST (#456058) #
I was going to post this, too. At the time of the trade, Giancarlo Stanton, who was with the Marlins at the time, posted a comment saying," I am pissed!"

Ironically, the player who performed the best overall after the trade was Mark Buehrle who in three seasons with the Jays, age 34-36, averaged 200 innings pitched a season and collected 40 wins.

It is also noteworthy that this trade was a salary dump for the Marlins as the Jays had to take on 160 million in future salary.
uglyone - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 01:12 PM EST (#456059) #
Twitter accounts of varying credibility are saying Alonso to jays may be happening.
John Northey - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 01:43 PM EST (#456060) #
No question at the time of the trade it felt like a 'woohoo' moment. Looking back though there were concerns about Reyes on turf, and about Johnson's wonky arm. The Jays with that could've/should've pushed for something extra imo. Here is how we all reacted at the time. Thomas & Moe warned of injury history for Johnson & Reyes, but pretty much everyone was super-excited after years of the Jays being cheap.
92-93 - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 01:55 PM EST (#456061) #
3/75 for Alonso would be a heist, that's way too good to be true.
Marc Hulet - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 01:55 PM EST (#456062) #
I do not believe the Twitter accounts regarding the Alonso/Scherzer deals. It's highly unlikely they'd have access to such specific dollar figs, opt outs, etc.

And the Jays have been super ninja-like to date. Only way this would leak out would be if Boras wanted it to, to put pressure on the Mets... which would also mean it's not as close as implied.
John Northey - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 01:58 PM EST (#456063) #
uglyone - just looked it up - try to avoid Twitter, but figured 'lets see' - Dan Bartels, with the NY Post (sports editor) says the Jays and Alonso have a deal for 3/$75 mil. At that I'd be OK with it - not much risk with 3 years, $25 mil a year isn't much in todays MLB. But he also said a few hours earlier that Alonso might have a deal with the Angels for 4/$100 mil so who knows?

At $25 mil per for 3 I'm good. Opt-outs or not. He was expected (FG & MLBTR) to get 5/$125 mil. Forecasts have him wRC+ of 124-131 (126 OPS+ ZiPS) which would fit in quite nicely. Yeah, our 3B defense goes into the toilet then with Vlad at 3B more often than not, but damn would that up the offense and allow a kid to be mixed in softly at DH or 3B part time.
uglyone - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 02:00 PM EST (#456064) #
tbh i think Bartels is probably just picking up on the tweet by that Deucette guy (blogger?), who for the record doesn't claim to be an insider just says he stumbled into this info (which also includes a Scherzer deal).

so yeah not exactly well sourced.
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 02:22 PM EST (#456065) #
I remember the Jays made that trade after they were heavily favoured to be in on Yu Darvish only to be let down when he signed with the Rangers.

I think the Toronto media spun the trade as a positive more than the rest of baseball. I remember at the season opener the Blue Jays had a "World Series or Bust" themed video before the game and the visiting team (Guardians) were seen laughing aloud and some of the team personnel (maybe Terry Francona) mentioned that they thought it was inappropriate and misleading for the Toronto club to brand themselves that way.

Personally it was a bad trade in my opinion but I loved it because AA in my mind was constantly being held back during his tenure by his boss Paul Beeston with budget even though he went on record EVERY TIME to say the opposite, "the money is there if I need it." By 2015 Alex pivoted and re-did the home run trade and the rest is history (on top of great deals for Marcum, Lawrie and Donaldson).
greenfrog - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 02:32 PM EST (#456066) #
Gossip cont’d (I hope it’s true as Alonso is my first choice for a further addition at this point):

Héctor Gómez
@hgomez27
SOURCE: The #BlueJays have an offer out to Pete Alonso. It’s a competitive offer and they believe they will land him.
uglyone - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 02:33 PM EST (#456067) #
https://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-trade-deadline-rockies-blue-jays-troy-tulowitzki-jose-reyes/

https://www.cbc.ca/sports-content/baseball/opinion/2012/11/blue-jays-send-clear-message-with-blockbuster-trade.html

https://spectatortribune.com/blue-jays-swing-for-the-fences-with-blockbuster-trade/

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2545563-inside-the-blockbuster-trade-that-stunned-troy-tulowitzki-baseball-world

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2015/07/28/troy-tulowitzki-jose-reyes-trade-rockies-blue-jays/30776197/

https://milehighmaniac.com/2014/01/29/super-bowl-xlviii-preview-seattle-seahawks-vs-denver-broncos/
uglyone - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 02:35 PM EST (#456068) #
last link was supposed to be this one:

https://milehighmaniac.com/2015/11/13/troy-tulowitzki-assessing-the-colorado-rockies-trade/
Gerry - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 02:56 PM EST (#456069) #
Brandon Eisert, designated for Santander, has been traded to the Rays for cash.
uglyone - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 03:22 PM EST (#456070) #

Some details on Anthony Santander's $92.5-million, five-year deal. The deferrals in the deal give the contract a present value calculated at $68.6 million, per industry sources. That means for CBT purposes, the AAV is a tick above $13.7m.

— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) January 23, 2025
greenfrog - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 03:48 PM EST (#456071) #
MLBTR:

The Blue Jays have been known for a while to have interest in free agent first baseman Pete Alonso. Andy Martino of SNY reports today that talks between the two sides are “advancing,” though he cautions that nothing is done yet and it can’t be certain that a deal will be completed.
John Northey - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 04:41 PM EST (#456072) #
If they get Alonso the cost is the cash, plus Luxury Tax penalty, plus their 3rd pick in 2026. If it happens it'll cost Wagner and some kids playing time, and Clement since Vlad goes to 3B often, and DH often will be Alonso or Vlad. Wagner's listed as a 93-118 wRC+ projection (ZIPS 110 OPS+), Clement 93-103 (ZIPS 92), Alonso 124-131 (ZIPS 126). By any measure Alonso is an upgrade on offense, a big one if you take the lower estimates for Wagner (more likely imo - loved his debut but realistically a 26 year old who reaches the majors at 25 is unlikely to be that good when he has been an infielder as guys who can hit and play infield tend to come up fast).
Glevin - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 04:55 PM EST (#456073) #
A lot of chatter around Alonso. Mostly from idiots who are making stuff up but also some from real sources. Not my favourite signing but I'd still be happy if it happens. Making the team better is good. Vlad, Santander, and Alonso would give team serious power in the middle of the lineup and I think would out Jays into actual contender territory.
greenfrog - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 05:02 PM EST (#456074) #
AA has signed Profar.
SK in NJ - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 05:04 PM EST (#456075) #
Profar is signing with the Braves, so that takes one realistic option away. Hopefully the Jays can land Alonso.
John Northey - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 05:43 PM EST (#456076) #
Losing out on Profar doesn't bug me - he is so crazy inconsistent it becomes consistent. 2025 should be a down year for him, then a strong '26.

3 years $42 mil ($12-$15-$15 = $14 per). Not bad, but I prefer the Santander deal myself (5/$68.6 or $13.7 per).
85bluejay - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 05:49 PM EST (#456077) #
I don't know who will sign Alonso, but I believe that Boras is leaking the Jays rumour to try and get Steve Cohen to overrule
his GM.
John Northey - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 05:50 PM EST (#456078) #
FYI: Ben Nicholson-Smith just posted an updated list of NRI's...
  • RHPs: Lazaro Estrada, Braydon Fisher
  • LHPs: Mason Fluharty, Ryan Jennings, Hayden Juenger
  • Cs: Phil Clarke, Andres Sosa, Jacob Sharp
  • INFs: Riley Tirotta, Rainer Nunez, Josh Kasevich, Charles McAdoo, Eddinson Paulino
  • OFs: Alan Roden, RJ Schreck, Myles Straw
uglyone - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 05:50 PM EST (#456079) #
uglyone - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 05:55 PM EST (#456080) #
the only thing about the Boras theory is that these rumours haven't come through the usual channels I don't think. the ones you'd think Boras would try to use.
uglyone - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 05:57 PM EST (#456081) #
not that i think it would be even a little bit of a surprise if this is Boras doing exactly that.
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 05:58 PM EST (#456082) #
Angels seem like the logical fit after NYM.
greenfrog - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 05:59 PM EST (#456083) #
It does seem as though Alonso wants to stay with the Mets.

Is he open to signing with Toronto if the money and term (and opt-outs) are right? I could see the opt-outs being an issue if he wants one or more early in the contract. It wouldn’t make sense for the Blue Jays to have both Vladdy and Alonso depart the team after 2025.
uglyone - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 06:37 PM EST (#456084) #

Any competitive team would want Alonso & Scherzer. Jays do like those players.

Just, to characterize anything as progressing or gaining momentum or close is not accurate based on the conversations @ShiDavidi & I had today.

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) January 23, 2025
greenfrog - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 06:54 PM EST (#456085) #
MLBTR:

5:30pm: Tim Healey of Newsday provides a similar report to Martino, saying that the two sides are deep in talks. However, Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet report that there’s no gaining momentum for the Jays to sign Alonso or Scherzer.
Marc Hulet - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 06:55 PM EST (#456086) #
Surprise, surprise, those random Mets twitter peeps talking about sources and the Jays/Alonso deal have started deleting their tweets from earlier today.
uglyone - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 07:09 PM EST (#456087) #
Atkins definitely giving Ben & Shi their marching orders to nip the rumours in the bud so as to not jeopardize the obviously advanced negotiations.
greenfrog - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 09:03 PM EST (#456089) #
The leak to Shi and BNS suggests to me that a deal with Alonso is unlikely and the Blue Jays are unwilling to spend that amount on another (non-superstar) player. The front office is trying to squelch the rumour as quickly as possible so that fans don’t get mad at them all over again.

Gerry - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 10:33 PM EST (#456090) #
Given that Atkins said yesterday that additional payroll needs Rogers approval, I would be surprised if they signed another big multi year contract right now. They are also very close to the second tax level.

I do see a short term contract for a pitcher as possible but if Atkins has to go to Rogers for approval then any signing doesn't seem like a slam dunk. If so he might only have the ability go to Rogers once, then I see him waiting to see if he can get a pitcher approved. If he can't get a pitcher then he can try and get a hitter approved.

SK in NJ - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 10:34 PM EST (#456091) #
My guess is Boras is using the Mets media to put pressure on the Mets to increase their offer, while Shi and BNS were asked to counter that by saying the opposite. Game of chicken to see who blinks first. Alonso probably wants to stay with the Mets and is hoping they bump their offer up.

I really don't see an intriguing backup option in free agency now that Profar is gone, so hopefully the Jays can close the deal here.
greenfrog - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 10:46 PM EST (#456092) #
It would be very on-brand for the front office to go this far and then…pull up short and express satisfaction with “our current roster.” And maybe add that they’re open to making further additions at the trade deadline.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, January 23 2025 @ 11:00 PM EST (#456093) #
Friends, I think I figured something out, and I would like to run it by you.

I think the key to the Straw contract is actually the Gimenez trade. Remember that Gimenez’s actual salary this year is $10 million however he has a cap of $19 million because he was traded. This means that the Blue Jays cash payroll was lower than their CBT obligation for the year. Maybe from the Jays perspective, since their instruction is to pay up to the second CBT threshold , this gap was essentially “ dead money”. So rather than lose it, the team decided to try to buy some international cap room. As long as they keep Straw off the roster, it works.
uglyone - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 01:23 AM EST (#456094) #
Sounds right to me.
greenfrog - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 09:07 AM EST (#456095) #
Interesting assessment. Could well be correct.

Some scenarios:

1. The Blue Jays extend Vladdy and sign Alonso

2. The Blue Jays extend Vladdy and don’t sign Alonso

3. The Blue Jays neither extend Vladdy nor sign Alonso

#3 feels to me like the most likely outcome, followed by #2, followed by #1.

I’m hoping for #1. Call it the “go big” option.
greenfrog - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 09:10 AM EST (#456096) #
4. The Blue Jays sign Alonso but don’t extend Vladdy

I didn’t include a “sign Alonso and then trade Vladdy” option, as that doesn’t seem likely to happen.

Could it be the Mets are waiting to see if the Blue Jays consider trading Vladdy to them before the Mets up their offer to Alonso?

Some miscellaneous thoughts on a Friday morning.
SK in NJ - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 09:24 AM EST (#456097) #
"2. The Blue Jays extend Vladdy and don’t sign Alonso"

This is the scenario that I think will play out. Unless Vladdy's ask is ridiculous ($500-600M), I see them figuring something out before Spring Training.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 10:24 AM EST (#456098) #
I think there is something to the Mets waiting on Vladdy. Their line up is not nearly good enough without Alonso (will Vientos repeat?)

greenfrog - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 10:39 AM EST (#456099) #
The Mets have Soto in his prime and for the long term. I’m sure they would love to pair him with Vladdy long term.
scottt - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 11:15 AM EST (#456100) #
AA was never afraid to roll the die with high variance guys. Colby Rasmus, for example.
Also, the move came out without warning, AA style.
mendocino - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 11:24 AM EST (#456101) #
Geoff Pontes@GeoffPontesBA
I had five Blue Jays in the T100. It’s the most underrated system in baseball.

I SAID WHAT I SAID!


Geoff Pontes@GeoffPontesBA · 1h
Tiedemann - 49
Yesavage - 72
Nimmala - 76
Orelvis - 91
Kasevich - 94
greenfrog - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 11:27 AM EST (#456102) #
Remember that AA had some great luck with breakout hitters in TO (Bautista, EE). Maybe he views Profar similarly, that is, as a talented player who figured out the hitting thing later in his career.
mendocino - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 11:29 AM EST (#456103) #
Barry@Burnes2TBJ · 1h
Ricky, Orelvis, Nimmala, Yesavage, Bloss?

Geoff Pontes@GeoffPontesBA · 1h
Swap Bloss for Kasevich. If I could do the rankings agains I’d have swapped Kasevich and moved Roden above Bloss. I think people are really underrating Kasevich and Roden and honestly I probably did when making the T10.
scottt - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 11:41 AM EST (#456104) #
Santander originally signed with Cleveland in 2011. Back then Atkins was director of player personnel and Shapiro was president.
In 2016, Mark Budzinski coached him in AA.
He's a good buddy with Victor Martinez who is a special assistant in Toronto. He also knows fellow Venezuelan Gimenez.

Not a bad landing spot for him, it seems.
bpoz - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 11:43 AM EST (#456105) #
Thanks mendocino. Thanks also for keeping us up to date on this years Int'l signings.
uglyone - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 01:04 PM EST (#456106) #
i can't agree with him on Kasevich being that high, but i do like him putting Ricky top-50. For me his only issue is health, which is an issue for every pitching prospect. But he's definitely a step above the rest of our prospects in terms of tools + actual performance imo.
Spifficus - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 02:43 PM EST (#456109) #
I wonder if they're seeing more promise in Kasevich's batted ball data than his power would hint at. His AAA avg EV is 89.6 mph (but with a 3 degree launch angle), so maybe-possibly. It has me interested, at least.
Glevin - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 05:51 PM EST (#456110) #
Jays announce signing 22 international players. Hopefully, someone has a rundown of the players. I don't like Kasevich that much but I heard him saying he likes Kasevich better than Jacob Wilson who gets better ranked.
John Northey - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 05:55 PM EST (#456111) #
Jays posted on Facebook their IFA signings so far. 5 catchers, 4 infielders, 4 OF, 6 RHP, 3 LHP. Many of these guys will never reach the full minors, but just play in the DR summer league and burn out. Some will reach the low minors before burning out, but hopefully a few can keep climbing to the majors ala Vlad and Kirk did. Vlad was a big bonus (over $3 mil), while Kirk was a cheap one (around $7.5k). So either end can produce depending on luck and skill.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 06:34 PM EST (#456112) #
Who said Kasevich is better than Jacob Wilson? The latter is a stud - best hit tool of any prospect. Dude looked unreal before his injury.
bpoz - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 07:36 PM EST (#456113) #
Very good point dalimon5. Kasevich has not yet played in the ML, so he has proven nothing. Jacob Wilson has to be recognized for how he performed in the ML. Therefore no realistic comparison can be formed IMO.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 07:42 PM EST (#456114) #
I'm actually wondering if someone like a scout made the comparison to Jacob Wilson. Glevin didn't mention it and there is no link and I don't have facebook therefore cannot check the referenced list.
Glevin - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 08:24 PM EST (#456115) #
It was Pontes who said it on a podcast interview. Something like they are similar players with similar profiles.
greenfrog - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 08:30 PM EST (#456116) #
Would it be feasible for MLB to shorten the timeframe for off-season transactions? Maybe set a Feb. 1 (or earlier) deadline, after which players are not permitted to sign until, say, June 1? That would get everyone focused and ready to finalize deals. Under the current system, the off-season wait for players to sign seems to last forever. It gets really tedious for fans.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 09:13 PM EST (#456117) #
Its good for baseball because they have eyes on their league longer. Or st least that's the only possible explanation for it...
dalimon5 - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 09:20 PM EST (#456118) #
Apparently Dylan Cease, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez and Jake Cronenworth are all very available by trade. Suarez and Arraez could be good in Toronto.
John Northey - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 09:44 PM EST (#456119) #
dalimon5 - Interesting group there, lets look a bit closer.
  • Dylan Cease: 4.8 fWAR last year, past 4 are 4.5-4.4-3.6-4.8 so not a fluke. Entering his age 29 season with SD he is a RHP with a 96.9 fast ball (only year he threw harder was 2020). bWAR is 3-6.4-2.4-4.2 as his ERA jumps up and down a lot. His K/9 is 10+ in all but 2020, free agent after 2025 so he is a 1 year rental for $13.75 mil. If he can be had without giving up the farm go for it.
  • Robert Suarez: RH reliever was SD's closer with 36 Sv vs 6 BlSv. Entering age 34 season but just 3 in the majors $10 mil salary in '25, $8 mil player options for 2026 and 27, played in Mexico and Japan before coming over (thus the high pay despite low ML experience) - with those options odds are he is a free agent if he doesn't pick them up, which cuts his value a bit (a normal requirement from guys coming from Japan who are older). Still, damn tempting.
  • Luis Arraez: SD again, an IF (2B/1B/3B/LF/SS last year) but not good defensively (thus why he flips around the field) - 4 batting titles, but low power, low SB. 372 OBP lifetime. If he could handle 3B full time (he did in '21) then he'd be valuable here. Free agent post '25, being paid $14 mil in '25.
  • Jake Cronenworth: sub 2 bWAR the past 2 years at 1B/2B after 3.9 and 4.8 years. Has 20 HR power, but really not much there. SD made the mistake of signing him long term for 31-36 for $72.7 mil which he isn't close to being worth. I'm sure they'd love to dump him and whoever gets him will probably just release him as he'd be dead weight.
Lots of demand out there for Dylan Cease of course, I suspect Suarez has lots too. Arraez less, and Croneworth they'll need to pay someone to take. In '21 Arraez was +5 DRS at 3B in 414 innings so there is a chance he'd be OK there, but he has been a negative everywhere else (well +1 in LF) so I'd be nervous with him. He hits LH and being a leadoff guy would make him a good fit here, but would the Jays put him at 3B and trust it wouldn't be a disaster? Padres are sticking him at 1B as they have Manny Machado at 3B and 2B is where they put Cronenworth for what its worth. Cease and Arraez I'd trade for, I'd take Arraez off their hands (SD is desperate to cut payroll) but to take on Croneworth's deal they'd need to give up a lot more - like some quality prospects or something.
Glevin - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 10:07 PM EST (#456120) #
Cease would be perfect for Toronto but one year rental so cost can't be exorbitant. No interest at all in Arraez. He does one thing which is hit for average. Doesn't walk, no power, can't field, can't run. He's a DH coming off a 109 WRC+ making $14M.
uglyone - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 10:09 PM EST (#456121) #
Bo for Cease.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 10:56 PM EST (#456122) #
I'd do Cease and Arraez for any mix of Barger, Loperfido, Clement, Roden and play Vlad at 3B.

Arraez 1B
Vlad 3B
Santander DH
Bichette SS (Alonso would be great here)
Glevin - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 11:00 PM EST (#456123) #
"Bo for Cease."

Would do this. Gimenez to SS, Wagner to 2B and you have a lot of freedom with DH. Don't think SD would though.


"I'd do Cease and Arraez for any mix of Barger, Loperfido, Clement, Roden and play Vlad at 3B."

Would not do this. Arraez, Vlad, and BO would give Jays horrible IF defense even with Gimenez and Arraez just isn't a good player.
dalimon5 - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 11:15 PM EST (#456124) #
Yeah you're right but i'm a sucker for elite elite elite contact from the left side.
vw_fan17 - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 11:26 PM EST (#456125) #
I get that Arraez isn't a high-OPS/WRC hitter, but 346 OBP is significantly better ahead of Vlad/Bo/Santander/Kirk than say, 303..
uglyone - Friday, January 24 2025 @ 11:51 PM EST (#456126) #
Cease is excellent. I wouldn't balk at trading any of our prospects for him.
Michael - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 12:03 AM EST (#456127) #
You could do some sort of soft cap on this to make it disadvantaged for both the players and teams but still possible.

Something like for competitive balance purposes any player signed between Feb1 and June1 counts double for the year. This would make teams not want to wait, especially the competitive ones likely making the big expensive signings. Further, to make the players want to sign, make it that any player signed in this window when the next contract comes up will cost the team to next sign them the same sort of pick as a QO rejected costs. There's no compensation to the team that signed them to this contract in window (so it isn't a positive incentive for the team), but the player knows this will make their next contract less attractive so they have some incentive to sign early.

A soft cap like that would allow people to still make changes (like if someone is injured and emergency replacements are needed), but would especially want the big name players to sign earlier.

But any changes like this would need consent of the players union, so I doubt anything would happen.
John Northey - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 01:21 AM EST (#456128) #
I have trouble seeing any plus to a limited signing window - I remember the pain of watching Tim Raines sit out until May due to a 'you cannot resign with your old team after January 8th' rule MLB used to have. There was massive collusion between all MLB teams that winter so Raines couldn't sign anywhere unless he did a Dawson (gave the Cubs a blank contract that he pre-signed). Nah, I think the current system which can be painful, has a purpose - we get signings all winter long, from the big guns in Nov/Dec to the stragglers in January/February and panics in March with the odd one holding out into the season (Roger Clemens did this often at the end of his career iirc wanting to play just 2 months plus playoffs).

For the next MLB collective agreement I expect the luxury tax to be getting more tiers going up (so the Dodgers get hit harder, maybe a surtax on their entire payroll if they crack a certain level) plus making a stronger definition of when a team loses its revenue sharing cash to keep teams from dropping payroll sub $100 mil and crap like that. I expect MLB to make a big push for an international draft too.
Petey Baseball - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 02:34 AM EST (#456129) #
Empty the prospect cupboard for Cease or an impact bat. But they won’t do it. Nor will they trade Bo. They love having depth so expect them to really hang onto what they have left especially after trading Horwitz.

It appears the Alonso stuff is real but it’s pretty clear he wants to go back to the Mets. Let’s just hope they bungle it up some more. I’d like to see it just for the sheer number of home runs the team might hit if Alonso signs. He’s capable of 40 in a good year, as are Vlad and Santander. Sounds like a pretty entertaining way to spend some summer nights watching balls fly out of a newly renovated stadium……let’s hope we’ve learned from years past and not inexplicably stop a thumper or a reliever short of truly having a shot and giving the fans what they deserve.



scottt - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 07:10 AM EST (#456130) #
With Cease they would try to do a repeat of the Soto trade. They would need a cheap starter back plus some prospects. Would be easier to trade for Castillo as the Mariners wouldn't need a starter back.
Glevin - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 07:39 AM EST (#456131) #
Love Cease and would trade a lot for him but wouldn't empty the cupboard for one year of anyone where this team is right now. I'd explore trades for Sonny Gray (owed 2/$65 which is a ton), Pablo Lopez (3/$65 which is a lot for twins), and others as well. Jays really need a guy who can start in playoff series. Sign Jack Flaherty or even Scherzer. I'd also be fine with signing Estevez and moving Hoffman into rotation if they want. There are options. They can go into season with this offense. They are decent and have a lot of depth and some upside. They can't go in with this rotation. They just don't have the depth to deal with even one pitcher injury and you can count on that every year.
greenfrog - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 07:50 AM EST (#456132) #
Right now this offense would include a string of players like Wagner (DH), Springer (RF), Clement (3B), Gimenez (2B), Varsho (CF).

You can look at the projection and say that some of those guys could be OK in 2025. But it's a weak 5/9 of a lineup that would very likely get mowed down by quality pitching in the postseason. Yes, they need a front-rotation SP and adding someone like Cease or Lopez or Gray (who I liked as a free agent last off-season). But they also need a strong bat to help anchor the lineup.
dalimon5 - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 07:58 AM EST (#456133) #
Bingo. Line up falls apart after top 4.

"He’s capable of 40 in a good year, as are Vlad and Santander. Alonso iscapable of 50+ in a good year.
greenfrog - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 08:49 AM EST (#456134) #
It would mean the difference between a "thick" middle of the order (Bichette, Vladdy, Santander, Alonso) and a "thin" one (Bichette, Vladdy, Santander).
Glevin - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 08:59 AM EST (#456135) #
Most lineups in baseball aren't very good and pretty much every offense has major holes (except LAD of course) The Jays had the 13th highest WRC+ in the league last year. Houston was 5th and they had Caratini, Pena, Heyward, and McCormick as 6-9 in the playoffs. Yankees had second best offense and half of their lineup was bleh. Twins had 9th highest WRC+ and their best hitter with 450 PAs was Carlos Santana. Phillies had 9th highest WRC+ and hit Castellanos cleanup with a 105 WRC+. With Santander and some regression from Bo and some production from youth, it's a top-10 offense. It can be improved but they can also win with this offense. The idea that you need to be solid offensively at every position is just not relevant to the game in the last five years.
greenfrog - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 09:19 AM EST (#456136) #
The Yankees were a special case last year because their two best hitters had an otherworldly wRC+ of 218 and 180, respectively. The Dodgers had a top four of Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, and Teoscar.

Those were the two WS teams last year.

The previous WS winner, Texas, had four hitters with wRC+ of 126 or more (Seager, Semien, Garver, Garcia) plus a few other good hitters (Jung, Lowe, Heim, Carter).

I just don't think it's a good idea to aim to be a middling team offensively, especially with a middling pitching staff.
scottt - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 09:28 AM EST (#456137) #
Wagner has the potential to be as good as Arraez.
Kirk, Springer, Gimenez and Varsho all have the potential to put above average numbers.
Clement isn't a complete disaster either.

There's no need to worry too much about the postseason.
Vlad has not been good in October.
Santander just need to hit 1 HR in a 2 games series to have good numbers.
Against quality pitching, guys who don't strike out and run the bases well can do just fine.

It still looks like they need another starter.
greenfrog - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 10:13 AM EST (#456138) #
I remember when people thought Santiago Espinal had the potential to be the starting third baseman for the Blue Jays after his strong 2021 (115 wRC+) in 92 games.

The last couple of years he's had a wRC+ of 80 and 75.

It's good to keep an open mind about young players but sometimes a depth player is just a depth player.
SK in NJ - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 10:36 AM EST (#456139) #
If the Jays miss on Alonso (assuming the interest is genuine and not Boras media manipulation) then I think we might see a trade. The AAA team as of now could have all of Martinez, Jimenez, Barger, Kasevich, and possibly Schneider (could win a MLB bench spot) on it. That’s assuming Wagner makes the team in some capacity. If they want to use Wagner at DH then they have to hope on internal improvement/development elsewhere, especially on the power end. A dead cat bounce from Springer is badly needed.

If money is tight then I think they’ll end up with Moncada as a buy low lottery ticket at 3B. Not a high probability of success but maybe you get lucky. Then they can spend most of what they have left on a SP. Scherzer is the best balance of upside and term (only a 1 year deal) but whether he chooses the Jays is the question.
greenfrog - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 10:50 AM EST (#456140) #
Scherzer is someone who sounds like a good addition in theory (formerly superb starting pitcher with a long and storied career), but he’s been hit hard by injuries lately. And his velo has been dropping in recent years.

I see Scherzer as a big step down from Cease, Lopez and Gray in terms of quality and quantity of innings provided. He’s more of a lottery ticket than a real plan to upgrade the rotation.
uglyone - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 11:03 AM EST (#456141) #
Espinal then went out in 2022 and....was a good starter. 100wrc+ and 2.4war (3.2war/650) in 491pa.

The Jays had one of the best offenses (and defenses) in baseball that year.
greenfrog - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 11:08 AM EST (#456142) #
Yeah Espinal was an adequate member of the roster in 2022. The organization then extrapolated from that performance and over-relied on him in 2023 when he produced zero WAR in 254 PA. He was a zero WAR player again last year.

Still, a good MLB career for someone who was a low-ranked prospect in the minors. He made something of himself and earned several million dollars in the majors.
uglyone - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 11:12 AM EST (#456143) #
in our case right now though, we have a large number of those types, so aren't just relying on hoping one of them has a good year.

interestingly though Espinal was never an analytics darling. even after that 2021 season he didn't project as starter quality - Zips had him as a 79ops+ for 2022, Steamer had him at a 91wrc+. He beat those projections in 2022 again (at least for the first couple months iirc), but then fell in line with the projections after that.
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 11:30 AM EST (#456144) #
Heh, heh. There was a big deal in the NHL last night with one of the top players getting traded. One of the comments I saw, " Mikko Rantanen gets dealt from Colorado Avalanche to Carolina Hurricanes. The Blue Jays were a close second on the trade."
John Northey - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 12:15 PM EST (#456145) #
I really want to believe in Wagner but realistically he (and Schneider before him) isn't likely to keep it up. At the start of 2024 Wagner was projected as having an 82 OPS+ on a 237/308/345 line. In the trade he was seen as a throw in by many. Now a year later he is a 110 OPS+ 271/350/388 player? Maybe but that seems quite the leap given in 2023 he hit 337/420/518 in the minors (AA/AAA) and in 2024 he hit 315/432/444 (AAA) to go with a solid 86 PA in the majors (125 wRC+). He could be real, but if projection systems hated him after '23 I don't see enough in '24 to justify a full time role or the high projection they have now. I'm leaning more to the OOPSY projection of 93 wRC+ myself.

As to the lineup we have 13 hitter slots, regulars are set outside of DH as Kirk-Vlad-Gimenez-Clement-Bo-Santander-Varsho (when healthy)-Springer with backups Heinemann and 3 others who also will use DH in some way/shape/form. Those 3 will be from the group of Schneider-Lukes-Jimenez-Loperfido-Clase-Berroa-Wagner-Martinez-Barger. I could see a semi-platoon with Schneider/Wagner or Schneider/Loperfido where Schneider gets lots of LF time pushing Santander to DH, Wagner gets time at 1B so Vlad can DH those days. Loperfido has plenty of minor league time at LF/CF/RF and 1B/2B even (401 innings at 2B, more than his time in LF which surprised me). Based on how the players were perceived pre-trade I could see Schneider/Loperfido as 'DH' (playing the field so others can DH) with Wagner in AAA working on his fielding more. I suspect a vet will be signed/NRI called up to cover backup infield/pinch run/get splinters on butt from sitting so much rather than leave Wagner or Jimenez on the end of the bench. Michael Stefanic might be a good fit for that - 264 ML PA, 66 OPS+, 0 WAR so dead on replacement level. 2B/3B in majors, 553 innings at SS in minors, 575 at 3B, 2427 at 2B, 61 at 1B, 40 in the OF, has even pitched an inning in the majors so he could cover the last man on the bench role nicely at age 29, not a perfect choice but odds are that role will rarely matter - more someone to go in the field in blowouts and pinch run for the catcher in extra innings. If a SS is needed in game Clement will probably shift over with everyone else rotating as needed.
uglyone - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 12:57 PM EST (#456146) #
Wagner and Schneider aren't really the comparison. At least not the only comparison. But Schneider smashed the cover off the ball in 2023 for a long stretch in MLB. That's not what Wagner's projections are based on really.

Wagner's projections this year would be more comparable to a guy like Horwitz' projections last year - based on a very good milb track record, albeit at older ages, and a solid cup of coffee in MLB the year prior.

Horwitz of course came up and hit as projected last year eventually (a bit better then projections actually), and we arguably wasted time not using him from the start - wasting money and time on the likes of Turner and Vogelbach.

But more important is that we have many more of these types this year.

Last year's zips had this group of borderline mlber projections:

* Schneider 111ops+
* Horwitz 103
* Biggio 96
* Lukes 96
* Barger 96
* Clement 95
* Roden 95
* Orelvis 93

This group actually turned out pretty well last year - Horwitz was excellent and Clement worthy of near fulltime duty too. Two full-time starter caliber performances out of this group of borderlines last year.

This year's zips has this group of borderline mlber projections:

* Wagner 110
* Roden 105
* Schneider 105
* Barger 104
* Stefanic 104
* Lukes 103
* Jimenez 99
* McAdoo 98
* Loperfido 96
* Schreck 96
* Clement 92
* Orelvis 90


It's both a much larger group and a group with significantly better projections than last year. Much likelier to get good hitting from this group this year than the group last year.

bpoz - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 01:03 PM EST (#456147) #
The Jays FO and ownership definitely want to compete. But what does compete mean to Ed Rogers, Shapiro and Atkins? I hope they agree on what compete means. My definition of compete is 85-89 wins and have a shot at the playoffs.

Last year Detroit & KC got the last 2 WCs with 86 wins. Seattle at 85 wins definitely competed. Minnesota 82 wins and Boston 81 wins competed until the last 1 or 2 series of the season. That is competing IMO.

For 2025 I only see CWS as having no chance to compete. LAA tries hard in the off season to get better in hopes of competing. Oakland made good moves this off season so I expect them to compete. ie 85-89 wins as a goal. I see all the other teams as being basically equal with injury, poor performance and 1 run games being favorable and/or unfavorable.

For the Jays the revenue will be there if they compete. I think the Jay's goal is to compete every year to get the revenue. For 2025 the strategy was to get better by over spending.

greenfrog - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 01:12 PM EST (#456148) #
One takeaway from last year is, don’t rely on expensive marginal veterans like 39-year-old Turner when you have a minor-league player like Horwitz who can provide similar or greater value for the league minimum salary.

I don’t equate 30-year-old Alonso’s likely production to that of 39-year-old Turner, though.

Also, Horwitz is probably a better hitter (albeit with less defensive value) than most or all of the depth options mentioned, which is probably why Pittsburgh wanted to pry him away.
greenfrog - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 01:26 PM EST (#456149) #
You guys have persuaded me that adding a #1 or #2 starter like Cease or Gray would be at least as good a choice as adding a hitter like Alonso or Bregman would be. Adding a frontline starter would allow everyone else in the rotation to slot into a more natural position (Gausman #2, Berrios #3, Bassitt #4, etc).

But the lineup will probably also need a significant upgrade now or during the season.

It’s a big challenge given how much the team has already spent to get to a low or mid-80s win total.
uglyone - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 01:31 PM EST (#456150) #
Alonso and Bregman would definitely be upgrades. These are very good players. I would like to see it.

but if we did that, i'd still say that having all these solid borderline projectibles is a bit of a wasted asset and that we should be doing our best to trade some position players for pitchers.

because right now the pitching has neither a Vladdy type talent up top or the borderline projectibles to potentially fill the gaps with solid average+ performance at the bottom.
greenfrog - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 01:41 PM EST (#456151) #
I was hoping Yesavage could pop up mid-season to bolster the rotation, but that seems unlikely for the reasons Marc Hulet mentioned.
greenfrog - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 01:50 PM EST (#456152) #
I just don’t like the idea of relying on the trade deadline to substantially improve the team, as in the past the FO has added lesser players like Merrifield and Hicks and White.

Shoot your shot now, then aim to add complementary pieces in the summer.
dalimon5 - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 02:21 PM EST (#456153) #
I count Vlad and Santander as sure thing offensive contributors. Bo is likely but not a guarantee. Kirk for me is not a sure thing to be a top 4 hitter. So in my books you got two solid bats maybe three tops for a line up of 9. Lets compare to the other AL east teams offense only:

Orioles - Henderson, Westburg and potentially Holliday. Surprised so little.

NYY - Judge, Chisholm, Stanton, Bellinger or Goldschmidt

Blue Jays - Vlad, Santander, Bo

Red Sox - Durran , Devers, Casas

Houston - Altuve, Paredes, Alvarez, Diaz, Pena

Rangers - Semien, Seager, Langford, Pederson, Garcia

Royals - Witt Jr, Pasquantino, Perez

Twins - Correa, Lewis, Buxton if we are in a leap year

Alonso would really make this line up scary
John Northey - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 03:39 PM EST (#456154) #
Yeah, no question Alonso would help a lot, as would Bregman. But I get why a deal is tough to do. Both want more years than they will be good for, for obvious reasons. Both want opt outs, both want mega bucks as both foolishly thought they'd get those long term deals in their 30's (nope, few teams willing to do 7+ year deals for guys on the wrong side of 30 again for obvious reasons).

I suspect the Jays will keep kicking tires on the two of them to see if one or the other breaks and will sign at a reasonable price. Meanwhile the Jays will keep hunting for a good trade opportunity I'm sure - SD being the most likely as they must be close to saying 'screw it' at this point with their terrible TV deal and seeing the Dodgers buy up everyone they can - I keep hoping the Jays do a 'OK we'll eat this terrible salary if you give us Tatis' type deal, but no such luck (SD has no shortage of bad deals too - Manny Machado making over $30 mil a year for years to come, Bogaerts $25 mil a year for a looong time, 3 more years of $20 mil for Musgrove (might recover), Cronenworth $11-12 mil a year for 6 more years (already basically a replacement level player). Phew. Lots of dead dollars there (or high risk of being dead dollars) - they'll need to give up some quality to get rid of some of that but will they? Could the Jays eat enough cash to make it work (ala the old AA deal with Miami in 2013)?
scottt - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 03:39 PM EST (#456155) #
The team has lots of variability.
Gimenez for example, has had OBP between .300 and .370.

Hitting is contagious.

The rotation isn't really worse than when they won 91 in 2021.
Ryu was just league average and Stripling made 19 starts of 93 ERA+.
Matz wasn't looking like anything special to start the year.

The pen could use another guy, but is otherwise looking decent.
Maybe better than in 2022, when Richards was up and down.
A lot better than in 2021, for sure.

Given the variability, in the lineup, rotation and pen.
The real key is the depth.

It's the same thing with the Yankees.
If Judge gets hurts, they don't look like much.

scottt - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 03:48 PM EST (#456156) #
The Padres were eliminated by the Dodgers after rolling over Atlanta.
They're in there to win, even though they have hit the max with the payroll.
They were betting on Sasaki, so that's a huge loss for them.

They will only trade if they get prospects and controllable players who can play now.
In that sense, they are trying to be like the Rays.

The Angels sell tickets so they keep signing players even though they don't profile to be any good.
The A's have scrambled things by signing players this winter, because they are getting hit by anti-tanking rules.
uglyone - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 04:03 PM EST (#456157) #
Last 3yrs actual real numbers not projections:

Fulltime Starters

* 1. Guerrero (26): 2085pa, 138wrc+
* 2. Santander (30): 1968pa, 124wrc+
* 3. Bichette (27): 1634pa, 115wrc+
* 4. Springer (35): 188pa, 110wrc+
* 5. Kirk (26): 1349pa, 109wrc+
* 6. Gimenez (26): 1806pa, 105wrc+
* 7. Varsho (28): 1686pa, 97wrc+

Part-time Starters

* 8. Schneider (26): 595pa, 103wrc+ -- (AAA: 467pa, 138wrc+)
* 9. Clement (29): 683pa, 82wrc+ ----- (AAA: 407pa, 126wrc+)
* 10. Bethancourt (33): 812pa, 82wrc+

Part-time Bench

* X. Jimenez (24): 210pa, 102wrc+ --- (AAA: 303pa, 113wrc+)
* X. Loperfido (26): 262pa, 74wrc+ -- (AAA: 327pa, 105wrc+)
* X. Stefanic (29): 264pa, 72wrc+ --- (AAA: 984pa, 134wrc+)
* X. Barger (25): 225pa, 70wrc+ ----- (AAA: 582pa, 113wrc+)
* X. Heineman (34): 299pa, 65wrc+ --- (AAA: 372pa, 93wrc+)

Cups of Coffee

* X. Wagner (26): 86pa, 125wrc+ ----- (AAA: 383pa, 138wrc+)
* X. Lukes (30): 122pa, 115wrc+ ----- (AAA: 938pa, 124wrc+)
* X. Orelvis (23): 3pa, 92wrc+ ------ (AAA: 565pa, 114wrc+)
* X. Clase (23): 66pa, 87wrc+ ------- (AAA: 426pa, 97wrc+)
* X. Berroa (26): 45pa, 74wrc+ ------ (AAA: 354pa, 104wrc+)
* X. Sanchez (28): 96pa, 11wrc+ ----- (AAA: 732pa, 98wrc+)

AAA

* X. Roden (25): 0pa ----- (AAA: 286pa, 140wrc+) -- (AA: 244pa, 133wrc+)
* X. Kasevich (24): 0pa -- (AAA: 173pa, 116wrc+) -- (AA: 393pa, 102wrc+)
* X. Schreck (24): 0pa --- (AAA: 0pa, 0wrc+) ------ (AA: 148pa, 133wrc+)
greenfrog - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 04:15 PM EST (#456158) #
Mark Feinsand (mlb.com) reports that execs say three teams, including the Blue Jays, need to make a big move:



‘The other finalist in the Sasaki sweepstakes, the Blue Jays have been high-profile bidders for Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Sasaki, only to watch them all sign elsewhere.

Toronto finally landed a bat with its signing of Anthony Santander, but there are still areas that need addressing in the coming weeks.

“It feels like the Blue Jays are a team desperate to make moves,” an AL executive said.

In addition to Santander, the Blue Jays have signed relievers Jeff Hoffman and Yimi García, also acquiring Andrés Giménez and Myles Straw in separate trades. The rotation could still use another arm – Max Scherzer has drawn the club’s attention, per sources – but adding another impact bat is likely the biggest goal.

The Blue Jays have been engaged with Alonso, who would be another impact bat to insert into the lineup along with Santander, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. An Alonso signing would likely mean some kind of role-share with Guerrero between first base and DH, but two different execs believe that Bregman would make more sense for Toronto.

“Bregman and Alonso are obviously the big fish left in the market,” an NL executive said. “I think if there’s a top-tier team willing to pay up to land one – or both – of them, that would make things really interesting. But it’s really hard to know what the market looks like for those guys given what other free agents have already earned this winter.”‘
dalimon5 - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 04:51 PM EST (#456159) #
"We made a significant offer to Pete,” Cohen told fans and media, including The Athletic’s Will Sammon. However, the owner doesn’t “like the structures that are being presented back to us. I think it’s highly asymmetric against us, and I feel strongly about it. I will never say no, you know, there’s always the possibility [of an agreement]. But the reality is we’re moving forward, and as we continue to bring in players, the reality is it becomes harder to fit Pete into what is a very expensive group of players that we already have.

"And that’s where we are, and I am being brutally honest. I don’t like the negotiations. I don’t like what’s been presented to us. Listen, maybe that changes, and certainly, I’ll always stay flexible. If it stays this way, I think we are going to have to get used to the fact that we may have to go forward with the existing players that we have.”

- David Stearns

Steve Cohen said the negotiations are worse than Juan Soto which already "tough." Seems like Boras is pissing people off.
greenfrog - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 05:24 PM EST (#456160) #
It sounds like there may be an opportunity for the Blue Jays to swoop in and grab Alonso at some point in the coming days/weeks.

Whether it's a pitcher or position player, the main thing is for the Blue Jays to acquire an impact player, not an average-ish one.
greenfrog - Saturday, January 25 2025 @ 06:08 PM EST (#456161) #
Seems like a lot of gamesmanship and posturing in the media to try to get the upper hand in the Alonso negotiations.
mendocino - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 12:25 AM EST (#456162) #
click bait?

VLAD@Vladdy27plakata · 57m
SOURCES: Alonso camp has officially closed the day and declined the 86 million offer. Wants it at 90 mil, and wants to get rid of the deferrals. #bluejays #petealonso #plakatasources

Greg Burman@GregBurman · 52m
Seems to me neither the Jays nor the Mets are dumping the deferrals.

Jays aren’t going past the 2nd CBT line for Alonso & Mets overpaid Soto, so they aren’t feeling generous either.

I do note that Mets’ situation is one #BlueJays helped create.

Interesting.

VLAD@Vladdy27plakata · 5h
SOURCES: Alonso’s been offered a 3 year 86 million dollar deal. This includes 22 million in deferrals and opt out in year one. This was made by the #bluejays have said before im not tryna be an insider, but i heard this from multiple sources around the league. Hope it gets done.
dalimon5 - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 10:38 AM EST (#456163) #
Edit to my post with Stearns quote. That was actually Steve Cohen himself responding to fans at their fan fest who were chanting "Alonso." When he was done talking (the quote,) the fans started applauding him. Kind of boss. Videos on YT if you want to watch.

I wonder if Shapiro will go to market with Vlad and do the same thing as Cohen with Alonso. That would be a very very bad misread for Vlad.
scottt - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 10:38 AM EST (#456164) #
It would take an above average hitter to improve the lineup.
However, even an average pitcher could improve the rotation/pen mix.

I mean, any of the hitters they have could produce 2 WAR, alone or in combination.
There's still a couple of guys in the pen who don't project to much.

Btw, the market is very quiet for Flaherty (5/100M range, probably too expensive), Quintana (2/20M), Gibson (1/14M), Kahnle (2/13M), Robertson (1/11M).

greenfrog - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 11:52 AM EST (#456166) #
Impact players are what has moved the needle in recent years (Semien, Ray, Gausman, Chapman, Teoscar). The average players acquired via free agency or trade like Merrifield, Turner, Tanner Scott, and Shaun Anderson haven’t made much difference.
scottt - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 12:11 PM EST (#456167) #
Semien wasn't exactly an impact player since he came following a series of down years. 
It's the same thing with Ray. He won the Cy Young with the Jays, but has only been an All-Star once  back in 2017.
Ray came to the Jays following years of 107, 103 and 68 ERA+. 
Chapman was an average bat in his last year with Oakland. 100 OPS+.

Matz moved the needle quite a bit. He's an average pitcher.
He's never pitched in an All-Star game.

Merrifield is a career 18 WAR player who has been an All-Star 3 times.
Teoscar is a career 17 WAR player who has been an All-Star 2 times.
It's just that we didn't get Merrifield in his prime.

Anderson is not an average pitcher. Not even close. He's a career 70 ERA+ guy.
scottt - Sunday, January 26 2025 @ 12:16 PM EST (#456168) #
With Gimenez at second, almost everything on the ground will be an out or a double play ball.
Also, it's going to be a lot harder to score from first when he's on the relay.
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