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Finally, a look at the Indians, who the Advance Scout says are "in expanded-roster mode already" with a lot of inexperienced players vying for future jobs. Apart from DH Matt Lawton, nobody in tonight's Cleveland lineup has 600 big-league at-bats. They will face talented enigma Kelvim Escobar, who got rocked in his latest, further exaggerating his odd splits at home (3-7, 6.39) and on the road (6-1, 2.04) this season.

Against giant lefty C.C. Sabathia, conservatively listed at 6'7" and 290, the Jays will send up eight righty bats and Carlos Delgado. O-Dawg, F-Cat, Myers, and Hinske are on the bench with Tom Wilson. Bordick is at 2B, Berg at 3B, Phelps the DH and Cash behind the plate. Bobby Kielty, hitting .389 off Sabathia (8-for-17) with two homers and a 1.310 OPS, returns to right field. Sabathia is 2-0 with a ridiculous 0.75 ERA in two previous starts against the Jays, and he's won four of his last five starts, allowing more than two runs just once. Escobar's done well vs, the Tribe in his career (2-1, 3.77, 3 SV) so this shapes up, on paper at least, as a pitchers' duel.
Game 134: Who Are These Guys? | 45 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Dave Till - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#93283) #
Things I Have Learned Today: Tom Candiotti pronounces "repertoire" the same way Jerry Howarth pronounces it.
Craig B - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#93284) #
Josh Bard homers, 3-0 Cleveland.
Coach - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#93285) #
After getting the first out in the second, Escobar gave up a walk and a single, then grooved a 3-2 fastball that Josh Bard, of all people, deposited into the upper deck. 3-0, Indians.
Coach - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#93286) #
Scooped by Craig...
Craig B - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#93287) #
I'm getting a little sick of the three-man offense this team has been using since the All-Star Break. At least Phelps is playing tonight.

And I've shut up about this all year, because it's been working, but if Bobby Kielty gets on base, and Vernon Wells hits for power, don't you want Kielty hitting *in front* of Delgado, and Vernon hitting *behind him*? This really bugs me. I can't say it's hurt the team, because the offense has been pretty efficient. But it's not good lineup design.
_EddieZosky - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#93288) #
I'm 8 rows back, about 100 feet back of third base. Anyone want me to run on the field and prove it?
Craig B - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#93289) #
Disturbing if relatively meaningless stat...

AL Team Slugging Percentage, Post All-Star Break

1. Chicago .531
2. Boston .509
3. Texas .462
4. Yankees .449
....
11. Cleveland .409
12. Anaheim .403
13. Seattle .402
14. Toronto .398

Ouch.
Craig B - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#93290) #
EZ, take off everything but your underpants and start gyrating to every song they play on the PA system. The cameras will zoom in on you pretty quick.
_Rob Faulds - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#93291) #
RBI Triple for Delgado!
Craig B - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#93292) #
Well, the Jays got Sabathia over 70 pitches and they started to touch him up. Sparky singles, Bordick homers, Wells singles, Delgado doubles, and it's 3-3.
Craig B - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#93293) #
Rob didn't really say triple did he? (I'm at work)
robertdudek - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#93294) #
Faulds said RBI single, but corrected himself as Delgado slid into 2nd.

Topspin homerun for Josh.
_Sid Frenchman - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#93295) #
Josh Phelps is fast, smooth, cool, strong, powerful, and sweet.
robertdudek - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#93296) #
I can't believe my eyes - a hit-and-run executed to perfection!
_Bob Federman - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#93297) #
Hit and run....good way to get Cash going...
_Eddie Zosky - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#93298) #
Man, the fans here in Cleveland (I use that term loosely, check out the poor crowd), sure don't appreciate the out of town fans. We've been told off by numerous neighbours after cheering loudly for both home runs...
As for taking off the pants...maybe after a few more watered down American beers...
_pete-the-donkey - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#93299) #
Man - here at The Jake with my buddy Zosky...man, the fans here STINK...I thought Cleveland fans would be rowdy, but quite the contrary. If the stadium wasn't a million times better than Crap'Dome, I'd think I was at home...oh, and ya, that's me you can hear yelling at Woodward...
_StephenT - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#93300) #
On TV, it looks like there are quite a few people there (though it's obviously not a sellout).

What technology are you using to connect? (I wouldn't want to lug a heavy laptop into a ballpark, but at least tapping on a keyboard is less annoying to neighbours than yacking on a cellphone. And loud cheering for opponent home runs just adds to the atmosphere. :-))
Coach - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#93301) #
if Bobby Kielty gets on base, and Vernon Wells hits for power, don't you want Kielty hitting *in front* of Delgado, and Vernon hitting *behind him*?

I should know better than to mention "protection," which is one of those psychological-mumbo-jumbo, traditional-wisdom ideas that can't be measured, like confidence. But if the opposition pitcher, manager and pitching coach believe in it, it's real. Wells is having the season he's having because everyone is so afraid to walk him and give up a 2-run shot to Carlos. V-Dub looks for, and punishes, the get-ahead fastball. If Kielty batted third and Vernon fifth, Bobby would see those fastball strikes and his numbers would go up. However, Wells would get pitched around a lot more. He would see sliders and changeups on what are now fastball counts.

When the season began, I was against the idea of Wells in the 3-hole, but I underestimated the impact on the opposition of big #25 on deck. In terms of "protecting" Delgado, who would have been my #3 hitter, I've always wanted Phelps hitting behind him, followed by Myers or Hinske, but the Jays seem to have forgotten how great Josh can be. He's reminding them tonight. I see Kielty as more of a #2 or #7, depending on who else is in the lineup.

Lovely job by Escobar tonight, settling down after the early HR to throw nothing but zeroes. Jays win, 7-3.
_Jason James - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#93302) #
Just wondering, does anybody know what would happen if there were a 3 or 4 way tie for the Wild Card? Do you imagine this ugly possibility is keeping Bud sleepless?
Craig B - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#93303) #
Well, Kent, I'm as happy as the next guy to talk protection... whether we can prove it exists or not, it's widely believed to have some importance, and it's a good reason to do things.

But if it's *protection* you're interested in, don't you want to protect the guy who keeps getting pitched around? Delgado doesn't get nearly enough good pitches to hit.

Like you, I'm happy to have Phelps hit behind Delgado. But I think that the best guy for that job is Vernon Wells. I'd rather have Delgado at the #3 spot as well; if he wouldn't want to move from cleanup, maybe their order is the best possible after all.

Good to see Kelvim back on his game, especially after early jitters. I love the idea of re-signing him as a gamble... a guy who can go eight innings all the time is quite a commodity.

Tim Hudson gets Tampa Bay tonight; time to start putting some Ws up on the board, Tim, if you want that Cy Young bonus.
Craig B - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#93304) #
By the way, the Expos buillpen is nursing a 2-1 lead over the Marlins into the top of the 9th, but the Expos now have runners on the corners with 2 out.
Craig B - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#93305) #
Ah well, Looper struck out Vidro to end that threat. Time for Biddle to come in and save this thing.
Craig B - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#93306) #
Or maybe it's time for Biddle to start throwing the ball into the seats. He can't find the strike zone; he grooved a 3-2 to Encarnacion who singled, and now walked Derrek Lee on four pitches.
Craig B - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#93307) #
Jason, if there's a multiple tie for the wild card there are systems in place to play tiebreakers. If three teams are in, they flip coins against each other (this is done well in advance; someone's going to have a sore thumb down at MLB headquarters to coin-flip 8 teams off against each other) to determine which two play the first playoff game, with the winner playing the "bye" team in the second playoff game. A four-way tie, I believe, it settled by playoff semi-finals and then a final. A five-way tie would be similar, I would think, but with three rounds of one-game playoffs. The most they can have is a seven-way tie, which is still possible.
Craig B - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#93308) #
One of those classic moments just happened where the debate about what the manager should do can go on forever.

Bottom of the 9th, Expos up 2-1. Cabrera, batting with Lee on first and Encarnacion on second, sacrificed to set up 2nd and 3rd with one out. Alex Gonzalez came up, with the pitcher's spot after. On the Florida bench? Fox, Mordecai, Banks, and Castro (I'm assuming he's out of jail... he's listed as on the bench on mlb.com)

What do they do? Walk Gonzalez, right? Gotta be a no-brainer? Set up the double play, get the force at the plate instead of having to tag?

Nope, Robinson pitches to him, Gonzalez hits a 1-0 on the ground to Carroll who tries to get Encarnacion at home and doesn't get him. 2-2, runners on first and second, still only one out.

Ugh. I know there's a rationale not to walk him, but man, I walk that guy every time.
Craig B - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#93309) #
Banks singled, and Florida won. I'm not throwing things, really I'm not. Did I just call that guy Manager of the Year? Whoops.
Coach - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 11:23 PM EDT (#93310) #
Thanks for the play-by-play, Craig. Tough loss for the growing legion of Expos fans.

if (Delgado) wouldn't want to move from cleanup, maybe their order is the best possible after all.

That's what I think. Carlos insists on hitting fourth, and he's so good he can protect himself. Like Gehrig, or Mantle when he hit behind Maris. Delgado makes whoever is in front of him better; it should be Wells.

a guy who can go eight innings all the time is quite a commodity

This was another brilliant road outing, and if Kelvim pitches the same way at the Dome next year, he'll be an all-star. However, signing him could be a $15 million mistake if what he needs is a change of scenery. He might even be the next Esteban Loaiza, disappointing in Toronto only to put it all together somewhere else. I'm glad it's not my call.
Craig B - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#93311) #
Coach, you omitted your answer to the important question... what would *you* do?
Craig B - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#93312) #
By the way, a very similar situation (runner on third, tie game) was discussed extensively on the SABR-L mailing list not long ago. I should dig through the SABR-L archives to find the research that was done.
_Mark - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 11:49 PM EDT (#93313) #
What was up with the announcers *twice* saying that hitters (both Bordick and Phelps) "shortened their swing" on their home runs???
robertdudek - Friday, August 29 2003 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#93314) #
If you walk him you have to get the pinch-hitter and the leadoff hitter out; if you don't walk him you have to get Gonzalez and the pinch hitter out. That's assuming you don't get the double play. Gonzalez doesn't get on base that often and his power is pretty much irrelevant - all he needs is a single. I think the edge of who you'd rather face goes to the not-walking Gonzalez scenario. Remember, you're still up by 1 run, so the key runner is the guy on 2nd. You can play the defence normal and concede one run if you have to (but you hope for a pop-up or strikeout). Better yet, Gonzo is a notorious free-swinger, by nibbling you may be able to get him to strike himself out.

Against the increased chance of a double play and various force plays, you are forced to avoid walking or hitting the upcoming batters if you IW. If the hitter knows you can't walk him, I think the advantage goes to the hitter.

In this case, unless the #8 hitter is better than the #1 hitter at getting on base or hitting singles (he isn't) I say DO NOT WALK THE BASES FULL.

I remember that Buck Martinez would always walk the bases full and very often the pitcher would walk home the tying or winning run. I hated that. I remember once when the opposition had a guy on 3rd and Buck IW'ed 2 GUYS to get the bases full. The pitcher then walked in the winning run.
Craig B - Saturday, August 30 2003 @ 12:07 AM EDT (#93315) #
Yeah, the leadoff hitter; I forgot that crucial bit of info. The leadoff hitter is Castillo, of course.

I agree that avoiding the walk makes it tougher, especially with Biddle, who hadn't been able to find the strike zone. I imagine this is why F-Robby had him pitch to Gonzalez; I mean, why put Biddle in a situation when he has to throw a strike when he essentially just faced one (against Lee with Encarnacion on first and none out) and couldn't put the ball in the ocean.

I see the rationale now that I've cooled down. I still wouldn't do it; give me the chance to make a pinch-hitter hit into a DP, let me play my infielders back (a crucial thing... Robert, I think you were actually saying to play back to Gonzalez, which isn't a bad idea, but I hate conceding a tie) and still get out with the win.
_Duane Grassbaug - Saturday, August 30 2003 @ 12:43 AM EDT (#93316) #
Just got back from the game....I was in the LF bleachers along the railing about 10ft from Josh's HR!!! sitting right in front of some good folks who made the trip down from Canada.....they were suprised to find a Jays fan from OH in front of them.....I really shocked the one guy when he mentioned that the Toronto media had really been on Tosca about not playing Phelps--(have they? other than the 'Box)....and I responded that if Richard Griffin is dogging Tosca I'd have to side with Tosca.....He had to think about who Griffin was....couldn't understand how a Central Ohioan would know of and have know use for Griffin and Elliott.....on an upside for you all....when I mentioned the battersbox....as being the ultimate source of Jays info.....he said he had heard of that b/c of the JP vs the Star ordeal....thanks again for the great sight....oh yea we got to see both good kelvim and bad Kelvim tonite.....we all thought it was going to be a really bad game during that 2nd inning.....I'll be back for Sat's game as I am going to the Prospectus pizza feed...lets hope for a Lidle miracle
Joe - Saturday, August 30 2003 @ 01:28 AM EDT (#93317) #
Would it really be Buck calling those IWs? Aren't those sorts of things called from the dugout?
_R Billie - Saturday, August 30 2003 @ 01:34 AM EDT (#93318) #
There were quite a few hard hit balls that didn't fall in or find holes today and Escobar managed to get through 8 innings somehow without his best stuff or terribly good command. Against a more powerful lineup there could have been trouble. Still, yet another quality start for the "freed" Escobar.
robertdudek - Saturday, August 30 2003 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#93319) #
I believe the leadoff hitter was Juan Pierre - still a better bet to reach base than Gonzalez.
robertdudek - Saturday, August 30 2003 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#93320) #
Buck was the manager at the time.
_pete-the-donkey - Saturday, August 30 2003 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#93321) #
Eddie Zosky and I will be at the games today and tomorrow - we'll file some more live reports from the Jake with Zosky's Blackberry. If there are any questions that need answering, feel free to inquire. Go Lidle - I predict a 5-hit shutout...
Coach - Saturday, August 30 2003 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#93322) #
Coach, you omitted your answer to the important question... what would *you* do?

This isn't intended as a cop-out, but I wouldn't do the same thing every time. When you're as involved as the manager is in a situation like that, you consider the percentages, but ultimately, you have to play a hunch, as there's no definitive page in "the book."

It would depend on what my instincts were saying about my pitcher (or my options in the 'pen) -- can we strike Gonzalez out? As Craig points out, Biddle wasn't inspiring confidence at the moment. More often than not, I'd issue the walk (or a semi-intentional pitch-around, with the infield halfway in) then hope for a ground ball from the pinch-hitter.

the Toronto media had really been on Tosca about not playing Phelps--(have they? other than the 'Box)

Duane: Mike Wilner, who gets a lot of things exactly right, has been quite opinionated about this on The FAN.
_jason - Saturday, August 30 2003 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#93323) #
Can anybody recommend a reliable web resource for team records in one-run games for 2003?
_Here, Jason - Saturday, August 30 2003 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#93324) #
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/standings?type=exp&br=3&year=2003&column=gamesBehind&order=false&st=2
.
Craig B - Saturday, August 30 2003 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#93325) #
Jason, ESPN's Expanded Standings page has 1-run records...
Craig B - Saturday, August 30 2003 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#93326) #
By the way, yes,the Jays have the worst record in 1-run games in the AL (10-19), and second in baseball to the Cardinals.
Mike D - Saturday, August 30 2003 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#93327) #
Baseball Prospectus had a very interesting article discussing the winning run on third / no out scenario. Although they allowed for flexibility depending on the matchup...typically, the smartest choice of action is to walk one batter (more possibilities for outs, setting up the DP for when you get one out) but not two (run the risk of walking in the winning run).
Game 134: Who Are These Guys? | 45 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.