I can't understand this deal from the Philly standpoint...at all. Why pay Wagner $9M and give up a prospect when you can get any number closers via Free Agency this winter at a fraction of the price. Granted, Wagner is one of the best but I don't think he is any better than Keith Foulke. You could also get Armando (uggh) Benitez if you wanted a "proven" closer for around $5M or even Flash Gordon for $4-$5M. Oh well, the good news of this is now Houston has cash to pry Pettite away from NY.

Stolen from Primer, the players in addition to Duckworth:


Taylor Buchholz
http://www.sports-wired.com/players/profile.asp?ID=4709

Ezekial Astascio
http://www.sports-wired.com/players/profile.asp?Name=EEEA


If the Phils are going to pay closer money, they might as well pay for one of the best. The long term success rates of closers are pretty bad outside of the top handful (due to injury or ineffectiveness) so Wagner makes sense for them over someone who might bomb at 2/3rds of the price (like Mesa did).

Having said that, given Wagner's contract the Astros did great to dump that AND get the players in return. Buchholz looks pretty promising.

http://theraindrops.blogspot.com
Wagner is due 8 million in 2004, with a 9 million option in 2005, or a 3 million buyout. So the Phillies just got either 2004 and 2005 for 17 million, or 2004 for 11 million, with almost no chance of compensation, considering his saves would allow him to clean up in arbitration, which the Phillies would need to offer for the picks. As a Met fan, I hope Ed Wade is Phillies GM for a long, long time.

I didn't think the Phillies would give up anyone significant outside of Duckworth with the salary they're taking on but I guess they coveted Wagner and money wasn't an object. Bucholz is a good prospect but he's not ready yet. Plus they have so many of these young power righty types in the organization they could afford to let one or two go in exchange for something they really need.

I think the reason they didn't wait to try to sign anyone else is because they didn't WANT anyone else. Wagner is a pretty special pitcher. Special enough to the Phillies that they gave up something even while taking on the entire salary. Bucholz was the price for jumping into the ring early before anyone else could make an offer. Now they have a $9 million solution to compete with the Braves' $10 million solution.

Now what the chances of the Jays doing something like that where the other team eats a large part of the star pitcher's salary? Pretty good if they're willing to give up Alexis Rios, Dustin McGowan, or Guillermo Quiroz. I don't see them doing that though. That's what every team will ask for no matter WHO the Jays are interested in.

Now that this deal has gone through, how much more likely is it that Flash Gordon may be donning a Fighting Jays uni next year? Seems to be a good choice right now. What other teams are willing to invest >$4M in a closer this year? I have lost track. I'm guessing Oakland, Toronto (barely), White Sox, Mets, Colorado?

I thought JP said on the FAN during the Series that they would not be extending any 5 or 6 million dollar offers to a "proven" closer this winter.

You know you might fall through the cracks to the Jays? Armando Benitez. I could see him settling for $3-4 million when the music stops and he's left without a closer chair to sit in.

I'm not sure that even Toronto is willing to invest that much in a closer. Not for a Tom Gordon anyway who always seems to be up and down every year with health or other problems. For $4 million they'd want someone with a long and consistent track record. I think they'll more likely go for two or three experienced relievers between $1 million and $2 million in price and hold a spring training competition for the closer's role. I think depth is more important to the Jays than one big gun right now.

If they're still in the hunt down the stretch they might consider dealing for a big gun as a finishing touch. Now if a talented guy like Arthur Rhodes or LaTroy Hawkins are still on the market in late December, them I'd be a bit more aggressive and see if they'll take $3 million to be guaranteed a closer's role with a talented team. Depending of course on what the draft pick compensation is.

If Benitez falls through the cracks I could comfortably offer him $3 million for a year but that would be the max. The Jays might decide they're better off going with two "non-closers" for that price though.

If Ed Wade truly got his way, his roster would be six position players, two starting pitchers, and 17 relievers all making $3 million or more. If Ed Wade knew the value of a dollar, he'd have no choice but to shoot himself in the head. Thankfully for him, he'd probably miss.

Wade reminds me of no one so much as Gil, the Jack-Lemmon-in-Glengarry-Glen-Ross clone from the Simpsons... trying his hat at ten million different plans, all of them utterly incompetently, as he looks for his big score.

If I had a vote I would spend the $4 million on more starting pitching. If I look at the best allocation of resources, I would say the Jays starting staff of Halladay, Towers and Hendrickson (as the only signed starters and no prospects ready in AAA) is obviously the most "in need" position on the Jays and I would spend my money on that. A "proven closer" is a luxury item right now for the Jays, given their pitching problems as a whole.

As for the trade, I actually don't have many problems with the Phillies end of this if they have the money to spend. Yes it costs them potentially $11 million for one year but they have invested heavily to win now and when you're in that mode they need to go for it. It cost them Duckworth, but for all his apparent "stuff", he is a 28 (I think) year old who has done almost nothing at the major league level and a good prospect. Signing a free agent would cost them a first round pick (if I'm not mistaken) so that part of it may be a wash.

It's obviously not a trade that a team on a different part of the success cycle would make (e.g. Toronto) but it's not without merit if you can pay the freight.

Just to prove I'm not totally lazy (I just posted without doing the research!). Duckworth is 2 months shy of his 28th birthday and his park adjusted career ERA+ is 82. Admittedly, this is in only approx. 325 career innings.

By the way Craig, I wasn't posting just to be contrarian to your view, you and I were posting at exactly the same moment.

Three posts in a row can't be good! On your post Craig, I would actually concede most of your points. The difference here is that unlike most of his reliever acquisitions, Wade hasn't given good money for mediocrity or worse. In this case he actually got someone who can pitch. I think this distinguishes this move from the endless recycling of Jose Mesa types.

I'm not sure that even Toronto is willing to invest that much in a closer

They invested over $5 million last year for Escobar to be the closer.

"We value the bullpen; we think that in the American League it may be more important than your starting rotation." - JP Ricciardi

Pistol, valuing the bullpen does not necessarily mean that the available funds won't be spread out among several relievers.

If you look at the archive from October 25 (http://www.battersbox.ca/archives/00001146.shtml#comments, Coach paraphrases JP after hearing him on the radio with Wilner: "there was no way he'd pay five or six million dollars for a Proven Closer".

I think it's fair to say that the Jays weren't exactly thrilled with the results for their $5 million closer this year, and unless JP changes his mind I doubt they'll take that route this winter.

They paid Escobar $3.9 million (mostly because he got lots of saves the previous year)...but the difference there is the choice was either to sign him, trade him, or non-tender him. His arm was too potentially valuable to do anything but keep him. Yes he was supposed to be a closer but he ended up filling a more important role...being the only competent starter outside of Halladay.

Maybe we'll be surprised...maybe they will go up to 3 or 4 million over multiple years for the "right guy" like LaTroy Hawkins or Arthur Rhodes (accepting that they may trade compensation picks for someone signing Escobar). I guess we'll see but I'm expecting moves more along the lines of Chad Fox and Bobby Howry in volume for lesser dollars. Basically what the Red Sox did on bit of a smaller scale.

I expect the starting rotation shopping will go largely the same though if Escobar doesn't return they have a real need to find a true #2 starter (and #3 and #4 for that matter)...Doc can't be the only guy in the rotation yet again.

If Ed Wade is introducing any players to his daughters, you know it'll be relief pitchers. The rest are simply not worthy.

Pistol, valuing the bullpen does not necessarily mean that the available funds won't be spread out among several relievers.

I realize that but my point is that I certainly think the Jays would *consider* a $4 million reliever, since they wanted to pay Escobar a similar amount to fill that role this past year (and the only reason he was a starter was because he was so bad as a reliever) and JP's comments in his BB interview.

I think the Jays will take the Rangers route and end up with the closer that's left like the Rangers did with Urbina this year for a short term, and below typical 'closer' money.

I agree with Nigel and Pistol -- "someone who might bomb at 2/3 of the price" is a nice turn of phrase.

Replacement-level bullpens can conceivably be had cheaply (but this isn't automatically the case; see Blue Jays, circa 2003). The Billy Wagners of the world can almost never be had cheaply, unless you have a thousand-to-one-shot Eric Gagne conversion to dominance.

There really is a difference, in my opinion, between mediocre pitchers who derive their value from accumulating the save statistic (Roberto Hernandez, Mike Williams) and dominant relief aces who happen to also rack up a lot of saves. Wagner's a superstar -- let's not go too far with our "closer"-bashing here.

The value of this trade is yet to be determined; it will depend on how Bowa uses Wagner. If it is for 45-55 one inning save situations, exclusively, then the closer bashing is warranted and that is way too much money. But if he is used more often and in more appropriate situations - think Eichorn or Marshall (or, today, Dotel, Hawkins or Bradford) - then he can be worth the dumptruck full of money.

The value of this trade is yet to be determined; it will depend on how Bowa uses Wagner.

God, what a terrifying thought.

Look, Phillie, wake up! It's not as if you have to undergo a big manager hunt. You've already got Charlie Manuel under contract. Jim Thome loves him. Fire Bowa already!

This deal doesn't make sense to me now--it's too much money for the Phillies given what the market will likely be for Proven Closers, and Duckworth, for all his potential, isn't the kind of guy I'd give up Wagner for. But back in July, this is the kind of deal that could have helped both clubs considerably. Wagner might have been enough to push the Phillies ahead of the Marlins, and might have helped the Astros better weather the loss of Oswalt over the dog days.

http://economics.about.com
Prediction: If Williams uses Duckworth as a starter, and the Duck pitches 200+ innings, he'll give up more than 40 homers.

I still like this trade for the Astros, assuming that they're not paying any of Wagner's salary.

Mike

Prediction: If Williams uses Duckworth as a starter, and the Duck pitches 200+ innings, he'll give up more than 40 homers.

I'd take that bet in a heartbeat, Mike. Remember, those two stats are not uncorrelated... few pitchers who pitch 200 innings give up lots of homers - because very few pitchers who give up lots of homers pitch 200 innings!

If Duckworth gets to 200 innings, he likely has his homeritis under some sort of control. And this is a guy, after all, who has 40 HRA in his career... but in 325 innings. This isn't Rick Helling.

http://economics.about.com
I'd take that bet in a heartbeat, Mike. Remember, those two stats are not uncorrelated... few pitchers who pitch 200 innings give up lots of homers - because very few pitchers who give up lots of homers pitch 200 innings!

Good point. I suppose it would be a bet I couldn't possibly win, because if he is that homer prone he won't get 200 innings, and if he isn't then I'm wrong.

Good thing it's a prediction and not a bet. :)

Mike

Why the Wagner trade was bad for Philly:

From SI.com

Bowa on Wagner: "He's definitely my closer. I'm not going to bring him into non-save situations."

Paraphrase: He is best pitcher that we have now, why would I bring him into a tie game? At the end of the day, it is that magical save stat that counts, not how many games we actually win. I am a moron.

http://cgi6.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewSellersOtherItems&userid=graded_card_sale&include=0&since=-1&sort=3&rows=50
CLICK URL:

http://cgi6.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewSellersOtherItems&userid=graded_card_sale&include=0&since=-1&sort=3&rows=50