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The Jays have completed 2/27ths of the season and have a .250 record. What's the over/under on when the Jays hit the .500 mark for the season?
  1. Fordin Notes on Delgado's horrible slump, and the trade that sent Scott Cassidy to the Red Sox for a PTBNL.

  2. Househunting prevented me from seeing yesterday's game, but it doesn't sound like it was a fun one, as reported in Mr. Fordin's "Jays can't avoid Oriole sweep". Related Stories: Millson's "Baltimore completes sweep", Allan Ryan's "Jays not so great for starters: Loss to Orioles ties futility mark for first 11 games", Allan Ryan's second article "Shhh! Blue Jay bats sound asleep", AP's "Orioles destroy Jays", CP's "O's keep Jays winless at home", and Joe Christensen of the Baltimore Sun's "O's finish off Jays, 7-0".

  3. Here's a weird one involving a former Expo: "Walker finds dead body".


When the hockey playoffs are on, don't expect more than game recaps from the local fishwrap.

Stats Du Jour

I mentioned earlier that the Jays have completed 2/27ths of their season. I've pro-rated the Jays players stats by 27/2 to see what the players end of season stats would look like if they continued at their respective paces. For the starting pitchers, I pro-rated them to each make 30 starts instead.

Hitters

Name HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Johnson 27 81 27 122 0 0 .184 .273 .306
Hinske 27 81 108 149 0 14 .186 .308 .372
Delgado 27 68 108 176 0 0 .119 .288 .262
Cash 14 108 27 135 0 0 .333 .385 .556
Phelps 14 81 27 122 0 0 .298 .353 .404
Wells 14 54 68 68 14 0 .260 .327 .440
Hudson 14 41 68 135 0 0 .150 .261 .300
Cat 0 54 14 108 0 0 .295 .304 .432
Woody 0 27 68 95 0 14 .167 .278 .300
Gomez 0 14 27 41 0 0 .333 .500 .333
Crash 0 0 0 41 0 0 .182 .182 .273
Hermsen 0 0 0 41 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Berg 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Pond 0 0 0 41 0 0 .000 .000 .000


Pitchers

Name W L ERA G IP HR BB SO
Doc 10 20 3.57 30 222 50 50 210
Batista 0 20 7.88 30 160 20 90 100
Hentgen 0 20 5.17 30 152 20 50 30
Lilly 0 15 6.97 30 152 0 75 105
Towers 0 0 5.79 30 126 0 30 120
Speier 14 14 4.05 81 84 27 0 81
Lopez 0 14 12.00 95 81 41 41 81
Adams 14 0 3.18 95 70 14 81 54
Lberg 0 0 3.18 81 70 0 27 81
DLSant 0 0 3.38 81 69 0 27 54
Douglss 0 0 0.00 27 54 0 41 54
Kersh 0 0 4.91 81 43 0 27 27


Some Nintendo looking stats we've got here. If you gave Delgado 100 more steals, he'd look like the speedy leadoff hitter for the Moscow Bears in "World Class Baseball". Roy Halladay is channeling Bert Blyleven circa 1986.

What's your take?
Jays Roundup - In Touch With The Ground | 34 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Tenobia - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 08:18 AM EDT (#71586) #
Like the Jays, I'm hungry like the wolf
Pistol - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#71587) #
What's the over/under on when the Jays hit the .500 mark for the season?

The Pistol sportsbook is setting the date at June 1.
_Matt - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#71588) #
If I were casting a movie about the AL East, Lou Piniella would definitely be played by Brian Dennehy... thats all for now... I think I'll need help with the rest of the film though...
Craig B - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#71589) #
Barry Bonds's current season, pro-rated to 162 games


Name AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG
Bonds 459 149 230 68 0 95 216 176 41 .500 .638 1.265


Half-man, half-amazing.
Pepper Moffatt - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#71590) #
http://economics.about.com
If I were casting a movie about the AL East, Lou Piniella would definitely be played by Brian Dennehy

Don Zimmer = Don Rickles
_Paul D - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#71591) #
Craig B, I think you're wrong.
Bonds is all amazing.
_just a fan - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#71592) #
The Jays aren't scoring runs, and most commentators say they have roughly the same lineup as last year. Delgado, Wells, Hinske, and company will come around, of course, but is it possible that Shannon Stewart has been harder to replace than anyone thought? Hitting is contagious and he rarely had long slumps.
_alsiem - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#71593) #
On the good side both Hentgen and Towers had decent outings. The offence will come around and as long as the pitching is decent things will be alright.

I think the Jays could be competitive with a team ERA of 5.00 if they start hitting.
Craig B - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#71594) #
it possible that Shannon Stewart has been harder to replace than anyone thought? Hitting is contagious and he rarely had long slumps.

It's possible. Stewart was/is a better leadoff man than anyone on the current roster, so it would have been pretty useful to have him still around. A good table-setter will have a beneficial effect for a few spots down the lineup.

He's not, of course, responsible for the whole of the drop, but it might be a small part of the effect on the team. (He's also off to a terrific start against Minnesota. I never know quite to do with a guy who gets hot after he leaves... maybe it wasn't meant to be here.)

Of course, for the price of Stewart we got Catalanotto (a wash with Stewart offensively and defensively, though obviously not good agaisnt lefties) AND Miguel Batista. So I was happy - ecstatic, even - to see Stewart go away.

Cat is also quite consistent, if you put his problems against lefties to one side.

Actually, if you want my uninformed opinion, nearly the whole of the offensive problem with the team so far has been their complete inability to hit left-handed pitching, against which the Jays are .174/.268/.336 (.239/.315/.371 agaisnt righties who have been generally of a better quality than the lefties we've seen). Stewart might have helped some there as well, I would think, but the effect - like the benefits of his consistency - would have been pretty minor.
_dp - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#71595) #
That was what Stewart had going for him as a Jay- as much as we value getting on base, being able to hit for a high average consistently is nice. I really enjoyed watching him hit, and he always seemed poised for a breakout that puts him into the next class of hitters. I could see him becoming a better hitter in his thirties, though his comps don't look good. Of course, it wasn't feasible for the Jays to keep him at his salary, but that doesn't mean they don't miss him while they're waiting for the kids toi be ready. I think he's underappreciated on this site, and talk here that Kielty was at least as good underscores that...
Pistol - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#71596) #
Hitting is contagious

Is it? And how would one go about proving that?

Another thought along the same lines, take two .300/.400/.500 hitters. Is a hitter that puts up a .300/.400/.500 line week after week going to be better or worse for a team that has a hitter with the same total, but has .100/.200/.300 one week and .500/.600/.700 the next week?

Has anyone ever looked into performance variability of individual players?
_Moffatt - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#71597) #
nearly the whole of the offensive problem with the team so far has been their complete inability to hit left-handed pitching

That was pointed out in one of the comments in the Jays preview, specifically "About half the team I don't want up to bat against a tough lefty". As shown by the 3-year GPAs, the Jays shouldn't be *this* bad at it:
NAME	GPA L	GPA R
Clark .000 .254
Cash .096 .143
Werth .115 .283
Hudson .150 .276
Gomez .192 .246
Woody .226 .255
Cat .231 .292
Hinske .233 .286
Berg .236 .232
Crash .257 .276
Delgado .265 .354
Phelps .280 .286
Wells .282 .274
Johnson .298 .252
_Moffatt - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#71598) #
Oh.. props to Tenobia for getting the Duran Duran reference. It seemed appropriate given the Jays woes.
Craig B - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#71599) #
Is it? And how would one go about proving that?

Well, I don't think we need to "prove" everything we say when we're just sitting around shootin' bull, Pistol. This ain't The New England Journal of Medicine.

It's a pretty common thing to say, that hitting is contagious. Now as to whether it's true or not, I don't know; but I know that on other sorts of teams (in other endeavours besides baseball) that good performances do rub off on each other.

One thing that's undeniably true is that players hit better with runners on base, and if your top two hitters don't get on base the heart of the order won't do as well. The effect is minor but noticeable and quite persistent.
Coach - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#71600) #
It's quite possible that there's no scientific explanantion for the Jays' woes. Over at the Cheer Club site, Aaron ponders the magical effect of his 1985 Jays hat, and asks for our input on what to do with the cursed relic.

I, for one, will be glad to see Named For Hank tomorrow night in whatever hat he was wearing last May.
_Jacko - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#71601) #

Name AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG
Bonds 459 149 230 68 0 95 216 176 41 .500 .638 1.265


Hey, he's no Calvin Pickering, who hit another HR yesterday.

Pickering could also kick his butt in a hot dog eating contest :)
_dp - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#71602) #
2 E in 7 games at 1B for Pickering- projects to 46 in 162. Those HR are amazing though.
_Nigel - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#71603) #
I have also long thought that poor starting pitching has an adverse effect on hitting. That's a strange statement but my theory goes like this. When your hitters are constantly looking at large deficits by the 2nd or 3rd innings then the pressure to put up large offensive numbers forces hitters to change their game plan. The Jays hitters have faced this scenario in about half their games so far. I can't back up the theory with numbers but I know from playing other sports that being way behind early impacts how you play. In my opinion, a return to some semblance of competency from the starters not named Halladay would go along way to fixing what's broken.
_Ducey - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#71604) #
A question for you. What if anything should the Jays do about this slump?

Does baseball have the equivalent of hockey's "bag skate"? Can/ should they send down A. Lop, who seems to really be struggling? Should the E Dog be forced to do a hundred tags of guys that should be out by a mile?

I know the answer to all of these is likely NO, but from afar it seems the team is lacking a certain intensity.
Coach - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#71605) #
nearly the whole of the offensive problem with the team so far has been their complete inability to hit left-handed pitching, against which the Jays are .174/.268/.336

Trammell and Mazzilli certainly picked up on that -- Ryan came in yesterday to face three righty hitters, and the Jays made Riley and Dubose look like Koufax and Spahn. It's definitely a problem that they don't have a #2 hitter vs. lefties; Hermansen and Hinske aren't the answer.

However, I think this slump begins and ends with the cleanup hitter. I was very disappointed when Carlos tried to hit a 700-foot homer on the first pitch from Ryan on Saturday, when a single the opposite way would have been huge. When he's locked in, and the team is leading, there's nothing wrong with such a swing. In that situation, it was the poster moment for "trying to do too much."
Pistol - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#71606) #
Well, I don't think we need to "prove" everything we say when we're just sitting around shootin' bull, Pistol

Reading my post again it comes off more hostile than my intent. My apologies if anyone took it that way.
_Matthew E - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#71607) #
I'm not picky. I don't insist that the starters improve or Delgado improve or anything specific like that. I'd like to see anything improve.

Sometimes when your team is going badly, you're thinking to yourself, "What'll go wrong tonight? Will the starter get rocked, will the bullpen cough up a lead, will the defense collapse, will the hitters not show up?" That mindset doesn't match this particular slump.

The mindset that matches this particular slump is, "Will anything go right tonight? Which one, if any, certainly not more than one, of the following things will happen - the starter makes it into the fifth inning, the offense gets more than five hits, the bullpen doesn't let a small deficit become a large one, the defense makes fewer than three mistakes that show up in the box score?"

I'll be glad when it's over.
_John Northey - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#71608) #
Individual stats are nice, but team stats are fun too.

After 12 games (via ESPN)....

Overall ERA = 5.17
Overall K/9 = 6.42

Starters
ERA = 5.58
K/9 = 5.84

Bullpen
ERA = 4.42
K/9 = 7.45

In the pen only Lopez and Kershner are above 4.05 (Speier) for ERA.
In the rotation only Halladay is below 5.17 (Hentgen)

Last year the pen and rotation were both at 4.69 for ERA. So the pen has improved (slightly) while the rotation...well...who'd have thought Hendrickson 2003 would be better than entire rotation 2004?
_alsiem - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#71609) #
I have two tickets for sale for tomorrow's game.

They are Row 14 Seat 1 and 2 on aisle 125. Must be sold as a pair, $52.82 each. These are premium dug out seats. The man to contact is Peter Armstrong.

COMN for contact email
_Matt - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#71610) #
does anyone ever just look at people whether they be playing baseball or not and just wonder to themselves whether or not we all evolved from chimps/apes/whatever???
_Cristian - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#71611) #
I'm pretty sure Carl Everett doesn't.
_Harry Heatherin - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#71612) #
Ok, Cristian, I nearly fell out of my chair on that one!

(luckily my co-workers just ignore me these days)
_Harry Heatherin - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#71613) #
BTW, at least my week is off to a good start -

Red Sox 5
Yankees 4

(seriously - ANYBODY but the Yankees)
Gitz - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#71614) #
Yeah, I had mixed feelings watching Keith "I want to play for a winner" Foulke strike out Jason Giambi to end the game. Really, both of these teams are irritating. Go Orioles! I mean, Go Jays!
Thomas - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#71615) #
Is this just me, or is that Curt Schilling wearing a Yankees hat?

(I'd do a COMN but I'm ignorant)

http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/photo?slug=cak11104200131.canadiens_bruins_cak111&prov=ap
Thomas - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#71616) #
http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/photo?slug=cak11104200131.canadiens_bruins_cak111&prov=ap
I figured it out, and it's also posted in the hockey thread where my humourous attempts to unlock the mystery can be seen.
_Magpie - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#71617) #
Hitting is contagious... its one of those things that seems intuitively true, like leadoff walks will kill you. I don't think there is actually any data that suggests a leadoff walk is more likely to score than a leadoff single, but it seems intuitively right. The pitcher does not WANT to walk the leadoff guy and is more likely to just challenge him if he falls behind. If he walks him anyway, it suggests that the pitcher is faltering... But alas, I don't think there's any data that supports this apparently plausible notion.

Something similar may be at work with hitting being contagious - if a pitcher gives up a hit to one guy or two, it tells us that this pitcher might be on the verge of giving up five or six more. But I would agree that the main factor is that most everyone hits better with people on base. Holes open up in the defense - which is probably the most significant thing. Pitchers work out of the stretch. They also change their approach a little as well; they start to worry a little bit more about the long ball
_Shane - Monday, April 19 2004 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#71618) #
I don't think there is actually any data that suggests a leadoff walk is more likely to score than a leadoff single, but it seems intuitively right.

Keith Law has produced numbers on this very thing. Where, right now, I can't remember. Maybe the "Rain Man" article...no, I actually think it was in a Toronto Sun piece last summer. Dig around, you'll find it.
_A - Tuesday, April 20 2004 @ 03:00 AM EDT (#71619) #
Ouch, Duchscherer balks in the bottom of the 14th and Seattle beats Oakland 2-1.
Jays Roundup - In Touch With The Ground | 34 comments | Create New Account
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