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It certainly seems that in every second thread the conversation invariably turns to whether or not Carlos Delgado and Miguel Batista will be traded. This is my attempt to keep all the discussion in one place.

Here's my thoughts. Everything that follows is 100% speculation; I have absolutely no idea what the Jays will do.

Carlos Delgado



There's a couple things to remember when discussing a Delgado trade:

  1. He has a no trade clause
  2. He makes a ton of money


It's the first of these that is the real problem. Delgado has expressed on numerous occasions his willingness to exercise his trade clause, and that at a minimum he wants a multi-year extension with the team he's being traded to in order to accept a trade. If Delgado sticks by this, then he's likely not going anywhere, because I can't see him getting a contract before the winter. If Delgado is willing to drop the extension demand, then he could wind up anywhere.

I can't imagine Delgado's large contract for 2004 will turn off other teams, as I figure J.P. will be willing to eat some or all of the contract if it brings it the right prospect. This willingness to accept sunk costs as sunk costs means that Delgado could wind up anywhere, as the team accepting him does not have to worry about budgetary concerns. By looking at every team in a playoff hunt, we can figure out where Delgado might end up:

New York Yankees - 7 Games Ahead - AL East
They're the Yankees. If they want Delgado, they'll get him. They've got other holes to fill first, though.

Boston Red Sox - 1 Game Lead - Wild Card
1B/DH doesn't look like their prime concern right now. At best a dark horse.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays - 6.5 Back - Wild Card
Yeah, right.

Chicago White Sox - 0.5 Game Lead - AL Central
Konerko and Frank Thomas have been their two best hitters this year, but Thomas just went on the DL and may not be back for the rest of the year. If Delgado is willing to go to the windy city, this looks like a great fit.

Minnesota Twins - 0.5 Games Back - AL Central
Since they're keeping Morneau in Rochester, they need a DH/1B rather desperately. Hence all the Delgado to the Twins wishcasting on the Box over the last few days.

Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians - 5.5 Games Back - AL Central
Yeah, right.

Texas Rangers - 2 Game Lead - AL West
Teixeira has been superb at first, but Fullmer has been mediocre at DH. The Rangers look to have a great future, so I doubt they'd mortgage their farm system for a better shot this year. Besides, they need pitching a whole lot more.

Oakland - 2 Games Back in AL West - 1 Game Back in Wild Card
I like this fit, though both Hatteberg and Durazo have been playing well. Still, though, we know Beane and Ricciardi are willing to work together.

Anaheim - 2.5 Games Back in AL West - 1.5 Game Back in Wild Card
If the Halos are willing to jettison Erstad or have him DH (god forbid), this works quite well. To many Anaheim looks like a perfect fit for a long term deal for Delgado, but with Kotchman in the wings I can't see it happening. Unless the Angels give us Kotchman for Delgado. I'd love that deal.

Philadelpha - 1 Game Lead - NL East
Have Thome. Don't need Delgado.

Atlanta - 1 Game Back - NL East
They don't seem to come up much in the Delgado discussion, but with a 88 year old Julio Franco at first, they could sure use him. If Carlos is willing to go to Atlanta, I think the Jays can pull off a deal that helps both sides.

Florida - 1.5 Games Back - NL East
Hee Seop Choi has been hitting the tar out of the ball. No trade here.

New York Mets - 2 Games Back - NL East
The Mets are only two games back?!? When did that happen. Anyhow, Piazza is playing first for them, so no deal here.

St. Louis - 7 Games Ahead - NL Central
Pujols is at first. Next.

Chicago Cubs - 1 Game Back - Wild Card
Like the man he was traded for, Derrek Lee has also been hitting the tar out of the ball. Next contestant!

Cincinatti Reds - 1.5 Games Back - Wild Card, Milwaukee Brewers - 2.5 Games Back - Wild Card
About as likely as Michael Moore voting Republican.

Houston Astros - 4.5 Games Back - Wild Card
Look more like sellers than buyers at this point in time.

Los Angeles Dodgers - 0.5 Games Ahead - NL West
With his buddy Shawn Green in LA, it's been suggested that Carlos would waive his no trade clause to play for the Dodgers. But if that happens, where does Green play?

San Francisco Giants - 0.5 Games Ahead - Wild Card
I really like this fit, as Minor and Snow have done very little at first. Who do the Giants have that the Jays might want?

San Diego Padres - 2 Games Back in NL West - 1.5 Games Back in Wild Card
Nevin says he'll be back on July 20th, but I can't say I entirely believe him. If Nevin is out for a long time, it could happen, but it's longer shot than some of the other teams on this list.

That's all of them

Miguel Batista



Miguel Batista isn't going anywhere. I'm sure every team on the planet has called asking for him, as he's a veteran pitcher signed to a below market value contract. I think my slowpitch team even called asking for him, but J.P. said he wasn't interested in a good-field no-hit DH, so I'm still not a Jay.

The reason he's not going anywhere is simple: You don't trade a guy you just signed to a multi-year deal in the first year you have him. It's one of those unwritten rules in baseball that are seldom broken. If you start trading guys you just signed, you scare off way too many free-agents the following year who would have considered signing with you. Trading Batista is one of those deals that looks great in roto, but doesn't work so well in real life, as we're dealing with REAL players.

Justin Morneau



Also not going anywhere. The Twins know exactly what they have in Morneau, and aren't going to give him up for cheap. I can picture the following phone call taking place.

J.P. - Hello

Twins GM Terry Ryan - Hey J.P., it's Ryan over in Minny.

J.P. - Oh hey Terry. What's up?

Terry - I'll keep it short and sweet. What will it take to get Batista.

J.P. - We want Morneau.

[CLICK]

J.P. - Hello?

The really annoying thing is that three years from now Morneau is going to hit around 40 homers, and there's going to be all kinds of people in the media saying "J.P. could have had this guy if he wanted to".

In Conclusion



The above is my take on the situation. Let's hear yours!
Batista and Delgado Trade Speculation | 29 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Moffatt - Monday, July 12 2004 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#52193) #
I've created a Home Run Derby thread and moved your comment. Enjoy!
_Elijah - Monday, July 12 2004 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#52194) #
I still think if a trade happens (a big "if"), the Dodgers are the most team. With Encarnacion and Bradley both hurt, the Dodgers have played Jose Hernandez in the outfield. They could move Green back to right, play Werth in left or center and have Roberts at the other outfield spot with Carlos at first. To me the Dodgers still make the most sense.

When Bradley and Encarnacion return, then a decision will have to be made. Roberts isn't really hitting that much this year so we'd probably see Encarnacion in left and Shawn back in right.

The problem I see with this is that the Dodgers don't have much to give in return (they're not going to trade Edwin Jackson and their other star hurlers are hurt) and while Carlos may be a sunk cost at this point, I don't know if the tradeoff for dealing perhaps the best hitter in team history for a Mondesi-type return is worth it since I think that J.P. would still consider re-signing Carlos next year (for much less, of course).

Amazingly, Werth has been the Dodgers best hitter the past couple weeks. Jayson has made the loss of Encarnacion barely noticeable.
_Elijah - Monday, July 12 2004 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#52195) #
Ummm, that's the Dodgers are the most likely team Carlos will be dealt to.
_Moffatt - Monday, July 12 2004 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#52196) #
I don't know if the tradeoff for dealing perhaps the best hitter in team history for a Mondesi-type return is worth it

I agree with you 100% there. I don't even think it has much to do with resigning him for next year. You'd have to think that the Jays really want to break .500 again this year, so they're not going to dump their best hitter for little in return. J.P. isn't going to make a deal simply for the sake of making a deal.
_Moffatt - Monday, July 12 2004 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#52197) #
I should have specified it above, but there's no way the Angels deal Kotchman. When I said "I'd love that deal", I didn't mean to suggest that it's plausable.
Dave Till - Monday, July 12 2004 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#52198) #
I'm beginning to think that a likely scenario is Delgado staying here and re-signing for one year. At this point, teams must be wondering whether Carlos can return to his 2003 form. He's not there yet; he's 5-for-26 since returning from the DL - and, incredibly, with no walks. (It is an extremely small sample size, and he did have that nice walk-off home run.) Given this, the Jays aren't likely to receive more than the proverbial box of baseballs for him in a trade.

Unless Carlos gets hot in the offseason, he's not likely to be offered much in the way of a multi-year long-term contract, except from Baltimore and perhaps Anaheim. (And, I suppose, the Yankees.) He might well decide to stay here one more year, rack up some big numbers, and then test the market when he's at his peak. And the Jays would be happy to have him here one more year, as they can see whether Phelps can consistently hit for the power he occasionally flashes.
_R Billie - Monday, July 12 2004 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#52199) #
Dallas MacPherson may not be Casey Kotchman but he may be better than any hitter than the Jays have in the system including Quiroz. He also has a lot of power which the Jays lack in the system outside of Quiroz. He strikes out a lot though. If you can get Mac plus a pitcher with a decent ceiling you might consider it.
_Mike Forbes - Tuesday, July 13 2004 @ 01:00 AM EDT (#52200) #
If The Angels Are Willing To Trade MacPherson At All, Jp's Accepting The Offer, No Extra Pitcher Involved.

I'd Be Thrilled With Either Kotchman Or MacPherson... Just Imagine This Lineup Of (Mostly) Prospects..

SS: Russ Adams
3B: Aaron Hill
CF: Vernon Wells
1B: Dallas MacPherson
RF: Alexis Rios
C: (Insert His Hard To Spell First Name Here) Quiroz
DH: Josh Phelps
LF: Gabe Gross
2B: Orlando Hudson

...Yes I Know MacPherson Is A 3rd Basemen But There Are Questions About His Ability At 3rd So A Move To 1st Could Probably Work Well.
_NIck - Tuesday, July 13 2004 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#52201) #
No way the Angels would consider MacPherson for three months of Delgado. If they were willing to give him up, I expect he'd have been part of a Beltran deal.
_Marc - Tuesday, July 13 2004 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#52202) #
I agree with Nick... There is no way McPherson is leaving, especially with the way he has been slamming homers at AAA and Glaus' impending free agency this year.

If the Jays trade Delgado by himself they will get very little for him, even if they pay most of his contract. If it's the Dodgers, the Jays will be lucky to get AAA hurler Joel Hanrahan or outfielder C.F. Chen. If it's the Angels, which I very much doubt, think AA reliever Steve Andrade and banished reliever Ben Weber (to balance out some cash) or back-up OF Jeff DaVanon.
_Moffatt - Tuesday, July 13 2004 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#52203) #
Why would the Jays get very little for Delgado, even if they agree to pay his whole remaining salary? He instantly makes the lineups of about 3/4s of the teams in baseball a whole lot stronger.
_Keith Talent - Tuesday, July 13 2004 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#52204) #
It's ridiculous to speak about trading Batista. Why on earth would you do that? What possible reason? And how will the Jays ever sign free agents in the future if they trade a guy six months after signing him. What message does that send? Sure, come to Toronto, get comfortable, and if you perform really well, we'll ship ya!
_Marc - Tuesday, July 13 2004 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#52205) #
Moffatt: The problem with getting anything significan for Delgado is A) he was hurt and is still proving himself to be healthy B) he is having a poor year (under .200 with runners in scoring position, low average, low power numbers) C) as a free agent at the end of the year not many teams will give up significant players for a two-month rental D) Delgado can basically choose what team he goes to, with the no trade clause, which eliminates some of the Jays' bargaining power.

I agree Delgado is an amazing player but other teams only have scouting reports and word of mouth... and anyone scouting Delgado this year, is going to be left with a less-than-stellar report. Although Delgado showed some promise upon his return from the DL his bat was a little slow through the zone, he was jumping at pitches and flying open. Sure it's just because he was rusty but any team will look for excuses to be able to pay as little for him as possible.

The Jays would likely be better off to offer him arbitration and take the two first round draft picks... assuming they can get him to agree not to accept (which is risky since he can only take a 20 per cent pay cut if he accepts) and he is unlikely to be offered anywhere close to $15 million (roughly 20 per cent of his $19 million salary this year) by another team unless he has a Bonds-like second half.
_Moffatt - Tuesday, July 13 2004 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#52206) #
There's no way Delgado gets offered arbitration. Not going to happen.

While Delgado hasn't been spectacular, I think a lot of teams are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt if he starts to look healthy, as he has a pretty proven track record.
_Marc - Tuesday, July 13 2004 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#52207) #
I agree they will give him the benefit of the doubt, but not for much in return...

And l agree he likely won't be offered arbitration, unless there is an agreement not to accept it, which is VERY unlikely (and assuming he doesn't resign, which is still a possibility).

I think the best bet would be for the Jays to resign Delgado for a one year deal with low base salary ($4 or $5 million) and easy to attain bonus that could put his salary at the $8 to $10 million mark. If he's doing well and the Jays are out of it again, trade him half way through the 2005 season. The benefit for Delgado signing this one-year deal would be to garner a more lucrative contract in 2006 than he will get for 2005 (and beyond) with his current numbers.
_Moffatt - Tuesday, July 13 2004 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#52208) #
And l agree he likely won't be offered arbitration, unless there is an agreement not to accept it

What, exactly, does Delgado gain from making such an agreement?

I think the best bet would be for the Jays to resign Delgado for a one year deal with low base salary ($4 or $5 million) and easy to attain bonus that could put his salary at the $8 to $10 million mark.

There's no way in the world this happens. Delgado would get at least $8 million guaranteed for a one year deal. It wasn't that long ago that this guy almost won league MVP, and his lousy numbers this year can be blamed on his injury. If he looks at all Delgadoish in the second half, he will get a multi-year deal.
_Marc - Tuesday, July 13 2004 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#52209) #
Sure he'll get $8 million some where else over two or three years, but if he has another Delgado-ish year, he could demand a multi-year deal for $10-$14 million... if he waits, which is exactly what Hentgen was trying to do (oops).

And sure, Delgado gains nothing from agreeing to not accept arbitration (a good will gesture to a team that has made him rich beyond his wildest dreams?) but he really has little to lose from it either.
_Moffatt - Tuesday, July 13 2004 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#52210) #
And sure, Delgado gains nothing from agreeing to not accept arbitration (a good will gesture to a team that has made him rich beyond his wildest dreams?) but he really has little to lose from it either.

He could always change his mind and take the arbitration and gain a whole lot. Such an "arrangement" is unenforcable, and I can't see Delgado having a lot of good will towards the current Jay administration if he wants to stay but J.P. isn't offering him a contract.
_Marc - Tuesday, July 13 2004 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#52211) #
And there in lies the problem! That's how the Braves got "stuck" with Maddux for another year, two years ago. They never thought he'd accept arbitration. And also why the Expos got NOTHING for one of the top 5 players in the Major Leagues Vlad Guerrero.
_Johnny B. - Tuesday, July 13 2004 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#52212) #
Re: Delgado and Batista trade speculation. Mike Moffat likes the idea of Carlos Delgado going to Anaheim if they would give up 1b Kotchman (which he believes they would not do). Well, how about 1b Dallas McPherson? His numbers look great, good size and power.
_Wunderbat - Tuesday, July 13 2004 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#52213) #
I don't know what we would get back, but Carlos on SF would be scary. I'm not even sure what order you would put Carlos and Bonds in. Would Carlos set the table for Bonds? Or would Carlos protect Barry in the lineup? Imagine that, "let's intentionally walk Bonds. oh wait, now we have to face Delgado." Scary stuff.
_Cristian - Tuesday, July 13 2004 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#52214) #
And sure, Delgado gains nothing from agreeing to not accept arbitration (a good will gesture to a team that has made him rich beyond his wildest dreams?) but he really has little to lose from it either.

Delgado has a lot to lose by agreeing to reject arbitration. A team that signs him will know that he will cost 2 draft picks over and above what it will cost to sign Delgado. The value that a team places on losing 2 draft picks will be considered when offering Delgado a contract. That value will be subtracted from whatever contract a 'no strings attached' Delgado would have received.
_earlweaverfan - Tuesday, July 13 2004 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#52215) #
It is really sad that the Jays did not have a conversation with Carlos late last fall (as I tediously urged a few times too often on another site), when they should have tried to engineer a trade that could have been of interest to both the Jays and Carlos.

I wanted a deal back then, because I thought it unlikely that any team would offer much at the trading deadline for 2-3 months of his services, only to lose him, after that. Still, I never contemplated a year in which he would stink out the joint, go on the DL, and then come back in the same form in which he started. Surely it is in his interest that he perform at a peak level this year!?! Maybe that injury was a problem to start with and just got worse??

But now, things are much worse than I thought back then, for both parties. The Jays will certainly not get much for Carlos before the deadline, and any chance that they might have given him arbitration has disappeared altogether. Meanwhile, Carlos will sign a one-year contract with somebody at a very small sum (compared to what someone might have signed him for last winter) and will have to try to re-build his market value at the wrong time in his career.

And, as most people feared, the Jays will get nothing for him, except, of course, freed up salary money. But even that, of course, depends on whether JP gets to keep all Carlos's salary money or has to give some of it back to the owners.

Meanwhile, the attendance falls, and the money to pay for next year's salaries declines...

Thank heaven for Batter's Box, and all the Minor League updates, our only source of hope!!!
_Moffatt - Tuesday, July 13 2004 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#52216) #
Re: Delgado and Batista trade speculation. Mike Moffat likes the idea of Carlos Delgado going to Anaheim if they would give up 1b Kotchman (which he believes they would not do). Well, how about 1b Dallas McPherson? His numbers look great, good size and power.

I love Kotchman, but that's not going to happen in a million years. I didn't mean to imply that it was at all likely. Guess I'm not a great writer. :)

McPherson is a stud as well, so you'd have to give up a ton to get him in return. More than three months of Delgado.

Delgado in the Giants lineup would be truly scary.
_Morty - Tuesday, July 13 2004 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#52217) #
Instead of questioning whether the Jays should / could trade Delgado, I'll pose another question for the Box:

What will it take to resign Delgado, considering the poor year he is currently having, injury concerns, age, the current marketplace, and if you're so inclined, a hometown discount?
Coach - Tuesday, July 13 2004 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#52218) #
our only source of hope

Thanks for the kind words, earlweaverfan. Apparently, despair sells more papers, and it's always an option.

I assume that the main reason the Jays didn't consider trading Delgado last winter was that they were still optimistic about keeping him. If they could have fit him into the budget for two or three more years at a hometown discount, why not?

Yes, things got worse the last few months, for all parties. It's a damn shame for Carlos that he got hurt, and it's been the half-season from hell for the team and the fans. Anyone who saw all that coming is probably, as a friend of mine likes to say, "telepathetic."

Delgado in the Giants lineup would be truly scary.

I'm still hoping he works out a way to stay, but if he does have to leave, hitting behind Bonds in a pennant race could be an ideal situation. I have no idea if Delgado would approve the deal, who the Jays might covet in return, how interested Sabean is, or what he thinks Carlos is worth, so I won't speculate.

Batista "trade talks" are a Bob Elliott exaggeration. Of course every contender has inquired, but it would take a ridiculous package of prospects to get him.
_greenfrog - Tuesday, July 13 2004 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#52219) #
I love what Delgado's done in TO, and I agree with JP that he fits exceptionally well with the Jays' philosophy (high OBP, power, leadership). But--unless the Jays' payroll is increased, I think he's priced out of Toronto. Delgado is going to want a multi-year contract, or at a minimum a very solid one-year contract (say, $12-14M per year). Either way, with a $50M payroll, and their current salary obligations for 2004-06, the Jays can't really afford him. And Delgado's injury concerns and decline in production make him a pretty significant risk for a multi-year contract.

I agree that the Jays aren't likely to get a whole lot for Carlos. I'd like to see him finish out the year in Toronto in all his Blue Jays glory--and then see what, if anything, can be worked out contractually--rather than have him dealt for middling prospects and cash.
_greenfrog - Tuesday, July 13 2004 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#52220) #
(Re-reading Coach's comments)

Of course, if Delgado has a chance to go to an NL contender (like the Giants), and he likes the idea, and the Jays can get a reasonably good player in return, a trade would make sense. Pennant race thrill for Carlos, a decent return and salary savings for the Jays, and of course, helping a team that might well end up playing the Yankees...
_erik - Wednesday, July 14 2004 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#52221) #
unless jp can rob a team blind (and with the amount of dumb GMs in the game, he might be able to), it really doesn't make much sense to dump carlos... jays would most likely have to eat most/all his salary (and what, exactly, would saving his salary for a couple months do for them anyway, since he'll likely be gone before the winter) and get virtually nothing in return (again, assuming jp cant rob someone)

i'd rather see him helping the jays salvage something out of this season then getting a couple scrubs who have no place in the future. Why bother?
Batista and Delgado Trade Speculation | 29 comments | Create New Account
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