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When the going gets tough, the tough get lucky. A week ago, objects in my rear-view mirror were too close for comfort. Yesterday, waiver pickup Scott Elarton tossed an unlikely 2-hit shutout at the White Sox, leading my BBFL club to a first-round playoff bye with a 10-1 trouncing of cellar-dwelling Jickís Rays. It proves that even an old, blind Walrus occasionally stumbles over a tasty seal.

The other contenders for top spot weren't so fortunate. Mebion Glyndwr led 8-3 entering Sunday play, but hannibalís cannibals got four solid pitching starts to pull out a 6-5 decision. AGF fell out of the running for the regular-season title as the Thunderbirds, desperate to avoid relegation, beat the third-place squad 10-2 to move from 17th to 15th in the standings.


The gashouse gorillas edged Springfield 7-5 to close the gap in fourth, leaving the Isotopes on the brink of relegation. Fifth-place Red Mosquitos enjoyed quite a Sunday (15/37 with 11 R, 10 RBI and .838 SLG) to turn a 7-4 deficit into a 7-4 victory over Garces_not_on_roids, which dropped the latter precariously close to the Barfield bubble. A 9-1 defeat of the Moscow Rats vaulted the Chatsworth Halos over the cannibals into the final championship bracket slot by two games with just one week remaining.

Week 21 Alomar Division Standings
  #  Team                      W-L-T        Pct    GB 
1 Toronto Walrus 150-86-16 .627 --
2 Mebion Glyndwr 145-98-9 .593 8.5
3 AGF 138-100-14 .575 13
4 gashouse gorillas 140-103-9 .573 13.5
5 Red Mosquitos 137-104-11 .565 15.5
6 Chatsworth Halos 135-108-9 .554 18.5
7 hannibal's cannibals 129-106-17 .546 20.5
8 Austin Senators 126-110-16 .532 24
9 Horse Field Hammers 125-116-11 .518 27.5
10 Baird Brain 121-120-11 .502 31.5
11 Eastern Shore Birds 117-125-10 .484 36
12 SABR Magicians 113-123-16 .480 37
13 Billie's Bashers 113-130-9 .466 40.5
14 Reykjavik Fish Candy 112-131-9 .462 41.5
15 Thunderbirds 112-132-8 .460 42
16 Moscow Rats 109-132-11 .454 43.5
17 Garces_not_on_roids 109-136-7 .446 45.5
18 K-Town Mashers 104-132-16 .444 46
19 Springfield Isotopes 101-136-15 .431 49.5
20 Jick's Rays 64-172-16 .286 86
My team led 8-3 Sunday morning, then Elarton (who had impressed me against the Yankees in his previous start) and Jason Marquis, coupled with the Fighting Jays beating Mike Mussina, turned around W and WHIP in a week that Freddy Garcia didnít pitch at all and Mark Redman stunk. The hitters did their jobs; it's great to have the real Carlos Delgado back in the lineup after carrying that impostor for so long, and I can't say enough about Coco Crisp and Ronnie Belliard, role players who have recently become sluggers.

Obviously, a 22-1-1 record in two matches against the Rays has made a significant difference, but anyone grumbling about my relatively easy schedule should examine the Roto stats, which will be forthcoming from Scott Lucas. Every owner in both divisions owes a debt of gratitude to the host of the league's Web site and official number-cruncher; thanks also for picking me up in this space when I was on the DL, Scott.

Although my beloved Jays have been disappointing, 2004 has been a satisfying fantasy campaign. I drafted well, picked up quite a few useful free agents and avoided catastrophic injuries. The Walrus has led the pennant race for 20 consecutive weeks, and barring a collapse that would make the í64 Phillies seem tenacious, should hang on for one more. Thatís no guarantee of success in the playoffs, where we all return to square one. Getting to the semi-finals is an accomplishment, but as Snellville Jones found out in BBFL last year and Oakland A's fans can confirm, anything can happen in a short Head-to-Head series.

Much remains to be decided over the last seven days of the regular season; scoreboard watching will be intense. The defending champion Austin Senators, still mathematically alive, are probably headed to the consolation bracket unless they sweep the K-Town Mashers, who need clutch performances just to return to Alomar next season. There are several other meaningful matchups ó I'm sure there will be some agonizing photo-finishes, and relieved that they won't involve me. Best of luck to everyone.
BBFL Week 21: Down To The Wire | 35 comments | Create New Account
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Craig B - Monday, August 30 2004 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#21944) #
The Archivists needed all their wiles and a lot of luck (and a late charge by the hitters) to defeat the high-flying Ghost Man On Third, 6-5. or a while, things looked bad, but the Giants managed to slap around Russ Ortiz last night to seal the overall win. No thanks to either of my two Giants, either: Tucker and Alfonzo both sat on the bench.

Bonds : I think this is the year's first Bonds to Jeff Bagwell which gives you an idea of how his year has gone. Bags hit .429/.529/.714 but his real distinction was 7 of both runs and RBI, which shaded him past Alfonzo, Lugo and Lee.

Neifi : Michael Tucker went 0-for-the-week. OUCH!

Pedro : Nate Robertson came up huge with an 8 8 1 1 1 6 performance to get a win against the White Sox.

Lima : Mike Wood, slapped around by the Angels and released.
_dp - Monday, August 30 2004 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#21945) #
This was a really fun week. Close in almost every category, and as Coach mentioned, the only way I avoided being crushed was to have all my starters pitch well on Sunday- Kelvim, Kaz Isii, newly added Carlos Silva, even Carlos Hernandez pitched in a with a win. They tossed over 20 innings Sunday, allowing me to take the category by 3. I would've even won WHIP if it wasn't for Baez imploding late in the day.

The offensive categories were even more fun- Mebion won SB 3-2 Sunday when O-Dawg stole a base. And our teams slugged away all week until late slumps pulled the final numbers down to .285/.289 .364/.361 .506/.546.

Individual Perfomers-
Bonds: OK, I know Bonds is the MVP this year, (damn you guys even name the award for him) but Adrian Beltre and Jim Edmonds have been amazing. Beltre wins the award with .517/.563/1.000, 8 R, 11 RBI and a SB, but Edmonds deserves mention- .353/.400/1.235, 7 R 10 RBI.

Pedro: Kaz Ishii, demoted to the bullpen a few weeks ago, has come back strong. 13.1 IP, 2 W, 2.03 ERA, and a 2.67 K:BB (amazingly high for Ishii).

Lima: Rename Loiza. We all know he was bad.

Neifi: Renteria killed me- with how close this week was, he cost me BA, and probably runs too with how well Edmonds was hitting. .136/.208/.136, 1 R.

This has been a good year for the Cannibals, just managing to hold my own in this tough league after a miserable rookie year.
Pistol - Monday, August 30 2004 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#21946) #
Here's what Barfield looks like:


Rank Team W-L-T WPct GB
†1 Slippery Pete 153-87-12 0.631 -
†2 Ghost Man On Third 144-99-9 0.589 10.5
†3 Edmonton Decepticons 136-104-12 0.563 17.0
†4 Good Sports 138-107-7 0.562 17.5
†5 HOMER JAYS Simpsons 134-105-13 0.558 18.5
†6 team junior felix 132-108-12 0.548 21.0
†7 MonkeymenCubed 128-111-13 0.534 24.5
†8 Pistol Nine 129-112-11 0.534 24.5
†9 TMG Eh's 121-113-18 0.516 29.0
†10 Vancouver Cyphers 124-118-10 0.512 30.0
†11 Capers 117-126-9 0.482 37.5
†12 Canadian wannabe 117-127-8 0.480 38.0
†13 Freddy Beach Fracas 114-126-12 0.476 39.0
†14 Anarchist Archivists 114-127-11 0.474 39.5
†15 Middleclass Elitists 110-127-15 0.466 41.5
†16 1-Tool Wonders 110-131-11 0.458 43.5
†17 W-A-M-C-O 108-132-12 0.452 45.0
†18 The Sweaty Guys 100-143-9 0.415 54.5
†19 Schroedingers Bat 92-148-12 0.389 61.0
†20 Ben's Men 86-156-10 0.361 68.0


Barring a total collapse GMOT will join Slippery Pete as graduates to the Alomar division. The battle for the third promotion is a battle among 6 teams (though more realistically 4 teams).

Monkeymencubed and my Pistol Nine (who's luck is evening out now) will need a big week to crack the top 6 that qualify for the playoffs.
Lucas - Monday, August 30 2004 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#21948) #
ALOMAR DIVISION Roto Standings

TEAM................	RUN- RBI- SB - AVG- OBP- SLG	IP - WIN- SV - ERA-WHIP-K/BB	TOTAL
Toronto Walrus...... 19 - 16 - 18 - 13 - 15 - 6 16 - 18 - 12 - 16 - 19 - 19 187
Mebion Glyndwr...... 18 - 12 - 9 - 5 - 8 - 13 17 - 14 - 14 - 17 - 18 - 20 165
gashouse gorillas... 15 - 11 - 16 - 11 - 11 - 16 11 - 6 - 15 - 18 - 17 - 17 164
Horse Field Hammers. 12 - 10 - 15 - 12 - 18 - 15 15 - 19 - 4 - 20 - 11 - 6 157
Austin Senators..... 20 - 15 - 10 - 16 - 12 - 11 4 - 9 - 10 - 13 - 12 - 18 150

hannibal's cannibals 17 - 18 - 1 - 17 - 17 - 19 13 - 6 - 17 - 11 - 5 - 2 143
Red Mosquitos....... 11 - 6 - 20 - 4 - 5 - 3 20 - 20 - 15 - 14 - 14 - 11 143
Garces_not_on_roids. 9 - 20 - 7 - 15 - 14 - 17 2 - 4 - 1 - 19 - 20 - 14 142
AGF............... 8 - 6 - 12 - 14 - 13 - 2 18 - 16 - 13 - 9 - 15 - 9 135
Chatsworth Halos.... 13 - 14 - 11 - 18 - 7 - 9 19 - 12 - 11 - 2 - 3 - 5 124

SABR Magicians...... 10 - 9 - 14 - 19 - 16 - 10 6 - 14 - 5 - 6 - 8 - 7 124
Eastern Shore Birds. 14 - 17 - 5 - 20 - 19 - 20 9 - 2 - 9 - 3 - 1 - 1 120
Thunderbirds........ 4 - 8 - 13 - 1 - 9 - 14 14 - 16 - 5 - 8 - 13 - 12 117
Baird Brain......... 6 - 4 - 6 - 10 - 20 - 18 3 - 3 - 19 - 7 - 10 - 10 116
Billie's Bashers.... 16 - 13 - 17 - 8 - 6 - 12 1 - 1 - 20 - 4 - 4 - 13 115

Moscow Rats......... 4 - 5 - 7 - 9 - 10 - 4 7 - 8 - 3 - 15 - 16 - 16 104
Reykjavik Fish Candy 7 - 3 - 19 - 2 - 4 - 1 5 - 5 - 18 - 5 - 7 - 8 84
K-Town Mashers...... 1 - 2 - 4 - 6 - 3 - 5 10 - 9 - 8 - 10 - 9 - 15 82
Jick's Rays......... 3 - 18 - 2 - 7 - 2 - 8 12 - 13 - 2 - 1 - 2 - 3 73
Springfield Isotopes 2 - 1 - 3 - 3 - 1 - 7 8 - 11 - 7 - 12 - 6 - 4 65


ALOMAR DIVISION Strength of Opposition
TEAM................	RUN- RBI- SB - AVG- OBP- SLG	IP - WIN- SV - ERA-WHIP-K/BB	TOTAL
Jick's Rays......... 20 - 20 - 12 - 20 - 20 - 20 19 - 15 - 8 - 18 - 19 - 19 210
SABR Magicians...... 19 - 17 - 20 - 14 - 16 - 18 18 - 10 - 13 - 13 - 9 - 8 175
Garces_not_on_roids. 1 - 6 - 18 - 6 - 15 - 8 8 - 20 - 20 - 19 - 20 - 20 161
Horse Field Hammers. 9 - 18 - 17 - 15 - 8 - 9 11 - 17 - 18 - 10 - 10 - 18 160
Thunderbirds........ 14 - 12 - 15 - 19 - 19 - 16 3 - 13 - 5 - 17 - 18 - 7 158

Moscow Rats......... 12 - 14 - 7 - 18 - 17 - 15 20 - 10 - 19 - 1 - 1 - 15 149
Austin Senators..... 17 - 15 - 13 - 13 - 11 - 17 17 - 15 - 3 - 6 - 4 - 12 143
gashouse gorillas... 15 - 19 - 1 - 11 - 6 - 19 15 - 10 - 6 - 15 - 12 - 10 139
Billie's Bashers.... 16 - 16 - 11 - 16 - 18 - 13 14 - 5 - 2 - 8 - 6 - 6 131
hannibal's cannibals 18 - 13 - 13 - 7 - 9 - 14 12 - 2 - 14 - 2 - 5 - 14 123

Springfield Isotopes 12 - 4 - 2 - 8 - 7 - 3 16 - 8 - 16 - 12 - 16 - 17 121
Toronto Walrus...... 4 - 9 - 5 - 17 - 12 - 11 5 - 13 - 6 - 20 - 14 - 3 119
K-Town Mashers...... 8 - 11 - 19 - 12 - 14 - 12 2 - 1 - 14 - 7 - 3 - 1 104
AGF............... 6 - 3 - 15 - 3 - 3 - 2 6 - 7 - 12 - 11 - 17 - 13 98
Baird Brain......... 10 - 7 - 9 - 5 - 5 - 7 13 - 5 - 1 - 16 - 15 - 4 97

Reykjavik Fish Candy 5 - 7 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 6 7 - 17 - 9 - 4 - 7 - 2 94
Mebion Glyndwr...... 11 - 10 - 2 - 9 - 13 - 10 4 - 17 - 3 - 3 - 2 - 9 93
Red Mosquitos....... 6 - 2 - 6 - 2 - 4 - 5 10 - 4 - 9 - 14 - 13 - 11 86
Eastern Shore Birds. 3 - 1 - 7 - 1 - 1 - 1 9 - 3 - 16 - 9 - 11 - 16 78
Chatsworth Halos.... 2 - 5 - 4 - 4 - 2 - 4 1 - 8 - 9 - 5 - 8 - 5 57


ALOMAR DIVISION Normalized (N*) Wins (in order of luckiest to unluckiest teams)

TEAM................	H2H Wins/Rank 	 N* Wins/Rank 	 Luck (Wins) 
Chatsworth Halos.... 139.5 6 125.7 9 13.8
AGF................ 145.0 3 134.6 7 10.4
hannibal's cannibals 137.5 7 128.6 8 8.9
Toronto Walrus...... 158.0 1 150.8 1 7.2
Mebion Glyndwr...... 149.5 2 142.9 2 6.6

Red Mosquitos....... 142.5 5 137.6 4 4.9
Springfield Isotopes 108.5 19 104.7 19 3.8
Baird Brain......... 126.5 10 122.9 12 3.6
gashouse gorillas... 144.5 4 141.0 3 3.5
Eastern Shore Birds. 122.0 11 119.3 16 2.7

Reykjavik Fish Candy 116.5 14 114.0 17 2.5
Austin Senators..... 134.0 8 135.0 6 (1.0)
K-Town Mashers...... 112.0 18 113.2 18 (1.2)
Billie's Bashers.... 117.5 13 119.9 15 (2.4)
SABR Magicians...... 121.0 12 125.2 10 (4.2)

Horse Field Hammers. 130.5 9 136.1 5 (5.6)
Moscow Rats......... 114.5 16 120.6 14 (6.1)
Thunderbirds........ 116.0 15 124.2 11 (8.2)
Garces_not_on_roids. 112.5 17 122.6 13 (10.1)
Jick's Rays......... 072.0 20 101.1 20 (29.1)


ALOMAR DIVISION Magic Numbers

Team.............	..1.   ..2.   ..3.   ..4.
Toronto Walrus...... *IN* - *IN* - SAFE - SAFE
Mebion Glyndwr...... 00.5 - *IN* - SAFE - SAFE
AGF............... 05.0 - *IN* - SAFE - SAFE
gashouse gorillas... 05.5 - *IN* - SAFE - SAFE
Red Mosquitos....... 07.5 - *IN* - SAFE - SAFE
Chatsworth Halos.... 12.5 - *IN* - SAFE - SAFE

hannibal's cannibals 12.5 - *IN* - SAFE - SAFE
Austin Senators..... 18.0 - *IN* - SAFE - SAFE
Horse Field Hammers. 21.5 - *IN* - SAFE - SAFE
Baird Brain......... OUT. - 03.5 - SAFE - SAFE
Eastern Shore Birds. OUT. - 08.0 - 02.5 - 22.0
SABR Magicians...... OUT. - 09.0 - 03.5 - 21.0

Billie's Bashers.... OUT. - 16.0 - 07.0 - 17.5
Reykjavik Fish Candy OUT. - 17.0 - 08.0 - 16.5
Thunderbirds........ OUT. - 17.5 - 08.5 - 16.0
Moscow Rats......... OUT. - 19.0 - 10.0 - 14.5
Garces_not_on_roids. OUT. - 21.0 - 12.0 - 12.5

K-Town Mashers...... OUT. - 21.5 - 13.0 - 12.0
Springfield Isotopes OUT. - OUT. - 16.5 - 08.5
Jick's Rays......... OUT. - OUT. - OUT. - RELE


1: Magic Number for Championship Bracket Playoffs
2: Magic Number for Consolation Bracket Playoffs
3: Magic Number to avoid relegation to Barfield Division
4: Unmagic Number to guarantee relegation
Lucas - Monday, August 30 2004 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#21949) #
BARFIELD DIVISION Roto Standings

TEAM................	RUN- RBI- SB - AVG- OBP- SLG	IP - WIN- SV - ERA-WHIP-K/BB	TOTAL
Slippery Pete....... 18 - 10 - 17 - 20 - 17 - 12 18 - 17 - 16 - 15 - 17 - 15 192
Ghost Man On Third.. 15 - 9 - 18 - 3 - 3 - 5 19 - 17 - 14 - 18 - 20 - 20 161
MonkeymenCubed...... 7 - 15 - 11 - 11 - 12 - 19 17 - 16 - 13 - 12 - 11 - 8 152
Freddy Beach Fracas. 6 - 3 - 3 - 18 - 20 - 18 1 - 1 - 20 - 20 - 19 - 18 147
team junior felix... 8 - 5 - 13 - 12 - 10 - 9 20 - 20 - 17 - 14 - 13 - 6 147

TMG Eh's............ 10 - 15 - 5 - 15 - 15 - 13 6 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 18 - 19 146
Vancouver Cyphers... 14 - 12 - 20 - 6 - 7 - 10 9 - 14 - 11 - 13 - 16 - 14 146
Canadian wannabe.... 20 - 19 - 14 - 13 - 13 - 15 8 - 10 - 3 - 19 - 6 - 5 145
HOMER JAYS Simpsons. 17 - 18 - 8 - 17 - 16 - 14 15 - 17 - 8 - 4 - 8 - 3 145
Anarchist Archivists 19 - 20 - 2 - 16 - 18 - 11 14 - 15 - 2 - 8 - 7 - 2 134

Pistol Nine......... 13 - 13 - 16 - 19 - 19 - 17 4 - 7 - 6 - 3 - 5 - 12 134
Good Sports......... 11 - 2 - 18 - 10 - 11 - 1 7 - 13 - 19 - 16 - 14 - 10 132
Edmonton Decepticons 16 - 17 - 12 - 5 - 8 - 16 12 - 4 - 11 - 1 - 3 - 9 114
W-A-M-C-O........... 1 - 7 - 1 - 4 - 2 - 2 13 - 10 - 18 - 17 - 15 - 16 106
Middleclass Elitists 5 - 8 - 3 - 7 - 5 - 20 10 - 5 - 4 - 11 - 12 - 11 101

1-Tool Wonders...... 12 - 11 - 15 - 9 - 9 - 7 11 - 5 - 7 - 6 - 2 - 4 98
Capers.............. 2 - 1 - 8 - 2 - 6 - 3 16 - 9 - 15 - 7 - 10 - 13 92
The Sweaty Guys..... 3 - 6 - 7 - 14 - 14 - 6 3 - 3 - 9 - 9 - 4 - 7 85
Schroedingers Bat... 9 - 14 - 6 - 1 - 1 - 4 2 - 1 - 5 - 5 - 9 - 17 74
Ben's Men........... 4 - 4 - 8 - 8 - 4 - 8 5 - 7 - 1 - 2 - 1 - 1 53


BARFIELD DIVISION Strength of Opposition

TEAM................	RUN- RBI- SB - AVG- OBP- SLG	IP - WIN- SV - ERA-WHIP-K/BB	TOTAL
Freddy Beach Fracas. 17 - 17 - 15 - 20 - 19 - 20 13 - 20 - 5 - 11 - 10 - 1 168
Canadian wannabe.... 6 - 9 - 1 - 14 - 18 - 18 20 - 6 - 20 - 8 - 18 - 12 150
Anarchist Archivists 16 - 12 - 19 - 12 - 7 - 15 12 - 12 - 12 - 9 - 11 - 11 148
The Sweaty Guys..... 19 - 18 - 10 - 15 - 11 - 10 19 - 3 - 6 - 18 - 14 - 3 146
Vancouver Cyphers... 7 - 13 - 20 - 16 - 16 - 13 3 - 12 - 7 - 10 - 12 - 17 146

W-A-M-C-O........... 15 - 19 - 6 - 17 - 14 - 19 11 - 18 - 1 - 5 - 8 - 13 146
Ghost Man On Third.. 5 - 3 - 6 - 8 - 14 - 1 7 - 18 - 16 - 19 - 20 - 20 137
Middleclass Elitists 20 - 20 - 12 - 18 - 17 - 16 1 - 2 - 12 - 1 - 2 - 9 130
Capers.............. 10 - 6 - 4 - 13 - 8 - 12 5 - 14 - 11 - 13 - 15 - 15 126
Pistol Nine......... 11 - 8 - 2 - 5 - 2 - 11 4 - 15 - 19 - 20 - 19 - 10 126

team junior felix... 13 - 11 - 9 - 19 - 20 - 17 8 - 7 - 2 - 12 - 1 - 6 125
MonkeymenCubed...... 14 - 14 - 10 - 9 - 10 - 6 15 - 4 - 9 - 7 - 9 - 14 121
Ben's Men........... 3 - 10 - 5 - 11 - 6 - 9 14 - 9 - 12 - 6 - 16 - 16 117
Schroedingers Bat... 9 - 2 - 14 - 3 - 5 - 3 16 - 9 - 7 - 15 - 13 - 19 115
1-Tool Wonders...... 18 - 16 - 17 - 4 - 3 - 8 10 - 5 - 16 - 2 - 4 - 5 108

Good Sports......... 2 - 4 - 15 - 10 - 13 - 14 6 - 1 - 12 - 4 - 6 - 18 105
Slippery Pete....... 4 - 1 - 3 - 7 - 12 - 2 18 - 16 - 3 - 14 - 17 - 7 104
TMG Eh's............ 11 - 7 - 17 - 6 - 9 - 7 9 - 7 - 18 - 3 - 5 - 4 103
Edmonton Decepticons 8 - 15 - 8 - 2 - 1 - 3 2 - 16 - 9 - 16 - 3 - 8 91
HOMER JAYS Simpsons. 1 - 5 - 13 - 1 - 4 - 5 17 - 11 - 3 - 17 - 7 - 2 86


BARFIELD DIVISION Normalized (N*) Wins (in order of luckiest to unluckiest teams)

 
Team................ H2H Wins/Rank N* Wins/Rank Luck (Wins)

Edmonton Decepticons 142.0 3 121.2 14 20.8
Good Sports......... 141.5 4 131.6 8 9.9
Slippery Pete....... 159.0 1 151.0 1 8.0
HOMER JAYS Simpsons. 140.5 5 132.9 7 7.6
Capers.............. 121.5 11 115.4 16 6.1

Pistol Nine......... 134.5 7 129.3 10 5.2
Middleclass Elitists 117.5 15 112.7 17 4.8
MonkeymenCubed...... 134.5 7 133.0 6 1.5
Ghost Man On Third.. 148.5 2 149.1 2 (0.6)
team junior felix... 138.0 6 138.7 3 (0.7)

1-Tool Wonders...... 115.5 16 116.7 15 (1.2)
TMG Eh's............ 130.0 9 131.4 9 (1.4)
Schroedingers Bat... 098.0 19 102.2 19 (4.2)
Anarchist Archivists 119.5 14 125.3 12 (5.8)
Ben's Men........... 091.0 20 097.0 20 (6.0)

The Sweaty Guys..... 104.5 18 111.0 18 (6.5)
Vancouver Cyphers... 129.0 10 135.8 4 (6.8)
Canadian wannabe.... 121.0 12 127.9 11 (6.9)
W-A-M-C-O........... 114.0 17 122.3 13 (8.3)
Freddy Beach Fracas. 120.0 13 135.5 5 (15.5)


BARFIELD DIVISION Magic Numbers

Team.............	..1.   ..2.   ..3.
Slippery Pete....... -IN- - -IN- - -IN-
Ghost Man On Third.. 05.5 - -IN- - -IN-
Edmonton Decepticons 12.0 - 05.0 - -IN-

Good Sports......... 13.0 - 05.5 - -IN-
HOMER JAYS Simpsons. 14.0 - 06.5 - -IN-
team junior felix... 16.5 - 09.0 - -IN-

MonkeymenCubed...... 20.0 - 16.0 - -IN-
Pistol Nine......... 20.0 - 16.0 - -IN-
TMG Eh's............ OUT. - 20.5 - 02.5
Vancouver Cyphers... OUT. - 21.5 - 03.5
Capers.............. OUT. - OUT. - 11.0
Canadian wannabe.... OUT. - OUT. - 11.5

Freddy Beach Fracas. OUT. - OUT. - 13.5
Anarchist Archivists OUT. - OUT. - 14.0
Middleclass Elitists OUT. - OUT. - 16.0
1-Tool Wonders...... OUT. - OUT. - 18.0
W-A-M-C-O........... OUT. - OUT. - 19.5
The Sweaty Guys..... OUT. - OUT. - OUT.
Schroedingers Bat... OUT. - OUT. - OUT.
Ben's Men........... OUT. - OUT. - OUT.


1: Magic Number for advancement to Alomar Division
2: Magic Number for Championship Bracket Playoffs
3: Magic Number for Consolation Bracket Playoffs
Pistol - Monday, August 30 2004 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#21950) #
Fourth place Good Sports plays surging fifth place Homer Jays Simpsons

Great, that officially eliminates my chance at 3rd (which I thought was pretty slim to start with).
Lucas - Monday, August 30 2004 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#21951) #
ALOMAR DIVISION PLAYOFF/RELEGATION ANALYSIS

Every morning for both leagues, I will post up-to-the-day standings at bbfl.scottlucas.com/04update.htm.

Best and worst possible finishes

#	TEAM................	Best	Worst
1 Toronto Walrus...... 1 2
2 Mebion Glyndwr...... 1 t6-7
3 AGF............... 2 8
4 gashouse gorillas... 2 8
5 Red Mosquitos....... 2 t8-9
6 Chatsworth Halos.... 2 9

7 hannibal's cannibals t2-3 10
8 Austin Senators..... 3 t10
9 Horse Field Hammers. t5-6 12
10 Baird Brain......... 7 15
11 Eastern Shore Birds. t8 t16-18
12 SABR Magicians...... 9 18

13 Billie's Bashers.... 10 19
14 Reykjavik Fish Candy 10 19
15 Thunderbirds........ 10 19
16 Moscow Rats......... t10-11 19
17 Garces_not_on_roids. 11 19

18 K-Town Mashers...... 11 19
19 Springfield Isotopes 14 19
20 Jick's Rays......... 20 20


These best and worst possible finishes represent the extremes, and most of them are highly unlikely. For example, for my Austin Senators to finish third, I would need to win no fewer than 11.5 games and have AGF go winless and Gashouse win no more than 1.0 and Mosquitoes win mo more than 4.0 and the Halos win more than 6.0 and the Cannibals win no more than 8.0. As I said, unlikely.

As Coach mentioned, he has guaranteed a first-round bye in the Championship bracket. He can finish no worse than second and would have to lose an unlikely nine games more than Mebion Glyndwyr for that to happen.

Mebion is a virtual lock to reach the Championship. But, if he goes winless, Hannibalís Cannibals go undefeated, and the teams in-between win enough games, Mebion would tie the Cannibals for 6th, and the Cannibals would win the tiebreaker based on best winning percentage in Week 22.

AGF is a strong bet to make the Championship and needs to beat Mebion by 4.5 and hold off the Gorillas to get a bye. Gashouse Gorillas and Red Mosquitoes will make the Championship barring a collapse. Chatsworth Halos are the only top six team without wiggle room, as they hold only a two-game lead on the Cannibals.

The Cannibals, Austin Senators and Horse Field Hammers are guaranteed to make the playoffs. The latter two teams are longshots to reach the Champs bracket. Only two teams, Springfield Isotopes and Jicks Rays, are completely out of the playoff running.

Actually, the most interesting battles this week involve relegation. Even the 11th-ranked Eastern Shore Birds have an infinitesimal chance of finishing 18th (in a 3-way tie). Five teams are within 5.5 games of the current last-to-be-relegated team, K-Town Mashers. A strong week by them throws the final spot wide open. Springfield Isotopes can also avoid relegation, but they almost certainly will need a bad week from Garces or Moscow.
Lucas - Monday, August 30 2004 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#21952) #
BARFIELD DIVISION ADVANCEMENT ANALYSIS

Congratulations to Slippery Pete, who are guaranteed to join the hallowed Alomar Division in 2005. Barring a total collapse and a knockout performance by Ghost Man on Third, Pete will finish in first. Heíll get a first-round bye regardless.

Ghost Man has a very strong hold on the second advancement spot. Two of four possible teams would have to pass him to dash his hopes, and even the closest team (the Decepticons) would have to win 6.5 more games than Ghost this week.

The Decepticons have a razor-thin lead in the third and final spot, and they get a little help in that the 4th and 5th-place teams, Good Sports and Homer Jays Simpsons, play each other this week. Conversely, that matchup decreases Team Junior Felixís slim hopes for advancement. Felix needs a blowout win, a collapse by the Decepticons, and a near-draw by the Sports and Simpsons to advance. Felix does have a reasonably healthy 3.5-game lead for the last spot in the Championship bracket.

Pistol is correct; he (and Monkeymen Cubed) cannot pass both the Sports and Simpsons.
Lucas - Monday, August 30 2004 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#21953) #
Oh, yeah. Nobody in either league set any records (good or bad) this week. In Alomar, Thunderbirds had the 2nd-best overall roto performance in league history, behind (ahem) my effort in Week 22 of last season.
_Jordan - Monday, August 30 2004 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#21954) #
Lucas, serious kudos to you for all this amazing number-crunching you've been doing. MLB standings should get such detailed analysis.

Despite my brutal schedule, the fact (borne out by the numbers) is that the SABR Magicians have very little in their hat, and wouldn't have done well even with an easy schedule. But this is a team built for 2005: keepers include Sheffield, Ichiro, Burrell, Sexson and Javier Vazquez, along with distinct possibilities like Kaz Matsui, Zach Greinke and Ted Lilly. Just wait till next year!
Coach - Monday, August 30 2004 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#21957) #
Five keepers, Greg. Mine are Thome, Abreu, Schilling, Delgado and somebody else -- Wagner if he's healthy, or maybe Estrada. But considering that they'll become free agents if I still own them at the end of 2005, I'll be open to trading Schilling and Delgado this winter for players of equal value.
_Spicol - Monday, August 30 2004 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#21958) #
Once again, I'm going to have to make very hard decisions on who to keep. Hafner and Pavano are closest to obvious, but neither is a sure thing. I'll probably also keep Livan and Dotel and someone else. Podsednik maybe?
_R Billie - Monday, August 30 2004 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#21960) #
The Bashers had a rare winning week but still sit only 5.5 games up on relegation. All we can hope for now is that Giambi and Kotchman somehow find themselves playing time down the stretch.
_AGF - Monday, August 30 2004 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#21962) #
I guess my luck has runneth over. Three weeks ago I had the 3rd best roto performance of the year and won 7-5. This week the battle of my A's pitchers (Mulder, Zito, and Harden) against Thunderbirds A's hitters (Chavez, Durazo and Scutaro) ended in a big loss for me and a record roto-performance for the 'birds.

Not only did I lose my tie for 2nd I also lost my first place in the luck table...

Keepers for next year: Big Unit, Rivera, M. Giles, Mulder and Zito/Harden/H. Matsui/Patterson. With the Unit, Rivera and Giles on the trade market since they will be free agents after next season.
Lucas - Tuesday, August 31 2004 @ 12:49 AM EDT (#21963) #
http://bbfl.scottlucas.com/04update.htm
Standings updated. COMN.
_Geoff North - Tuesday, August 31 2004 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#21964) #
Can we trade players we've had for 3 years during the third off season? I would assume that we control their rights until the draft, and being able to trade them would allow us to maximize their value.
Lucas - Tuesday, August 31 2004 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#21965) #
I don't think we ever specifically addressed that, but I would assume so. The post-season trading window takes place BEFORE we announce keepers, and everyone on your roster at season's end stays there until you renounce them (by not keeping them).
_Rob - Tuesday, August 31 2004 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#21966) #
Not being in a keeper league, I have nothing invested in this, but if Team A trades with Team B for Player X (whose contract is up), then can Team A keep X for three years (thus starting the cycle again), or does X have to enter the draft that year?

You guys probably talked about this in the offseason, including what happens if two teams colluded by trading the same players back and forth every three years, thus never making them free agents.
Coach - Tuesday, August 31 2004 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#21967) #
That's my understanding, too. You can only keep someone twice, then you have to trade him or release him back into the pool. But you have until the offseason window closes -- presumably, there will be a flurry of deadline deals before the 2005 draft as some of last year's original picks change hands.

Rob, the best players probably won't become FA very often, because it does make sense to deal your third-year stars for someone else's, either before, during or after the season. I'm not too worried about the type of "collusion" that takes six years to materialize; this is a highly competitive league, and anyone who helps a friend too much risks being relegated before the favour can be repaid.
_Geoff North - Tuesday, August 31 2004 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#21968) #
Yes, Team A keeps Player X for a new 3 year cycle, starting in whichever season Player X plays his first game for Team A.

That's basically why I'm asking about trading someone after the third season they've been on someone's team - you could have someone for 3 years, and then trade them before the draft and keep that new player for another 3 years - maximum value.
_Rob - Tuesday, August 31 2004 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#21969) #
I'm not too worried about the type of "collusion" that takes six years to materialize

Never mind. Score it an E-Rob. ;) Six years is a long time in fantasy baseball (or anything, for that matter).
Lucas - Wednesday, September 01 2004 @ 01:56 AM EDT (#21970) #
http://bbfl.scottlucas.com/04update.htm
I'm not too worried about the type of "collusion" that takes six years to materialize.

You've fallen right into my trap. Mwah-ha-ha-ha!

Anyway, standings updated. COMN.
Lucas - Thursday, September 02 2004 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#21971) #
http://bbfl.scottlucas.com/04update.htm
Updated through 1 Sept. COMN
Lucas - Friday, September 03 2004 @ 03:05 AM EDT (#21973) #
http://bbfl.scottlucas.com/04update.htm
Big news: The Homer Jays Simpsons have overtaken the Edmonton Decepticons for the final advancement spot. COMN
_Shrike - Saturday, September 04 2004 @ 03:15 AM EDT (#21975) #
Don't I wish. Burnett's game got postponed, and I didn't gain in the wins department as you got even better starts today than I did, for all of Santana's continued brilliance, the Jays did well against Hudson today--and I loved every minute of it, of course!
Lucas - Saturday, September 04 2004 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#21976) #
http://bbfl.scottlucas.com/04update.htm
Standings updated. COMN
Lucas - Sunday, September 05 2004 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#21977) #
http://bbfl.scottlucas.com/04update.htm
Standings updated for Sunday morning. Today is it. COMN.
Lucas - Monday, September 06 2004 @ 03:04 AM EDT (#21978) #
ALOMAR DIVISION:

Standing essentially unchanged. Same six in Championship Bracket and Consolation Bracket, same three teams relegated. 1st-round byes go to Toronto Walrus and Mebion Glyndwyr in Champs and Austin Senators and Hannibals Cannibals in Consolation.

BARFIELD DIVISION:

Slippery Pete, Ghost Man and... Homer Jays Simpsons will advance, assuming I'm reasding the rules correctly. The Simpsons and Edmonton Decepticons tied for third, but the Simpson should advance with a better winning percentage in Week 22. Decepticons, Sports and Felix roundout the top six. Consolation Bracket unchanged from last week except Fracas replaces Wannabe and Eh's get a bye instead of Monkeymen.
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