Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
With glaring sunlight in my eyes
I thought of all the times gone by
And laughed aloud at the crimson sky

Jays 4 - Orioles 1

Boxscore:

  1. Recaps:

    • Spencer Fordin:

        Call it September Training, a strange hybrid of the exhibition season and the stretch drive rolled into one. Roy Halladay toed the rubber in a Major League park on Monday night, but his focus wasn't solely trained on winning the game.

        At this advanced stage of the season, Toronto's ace just wanted to prove he could pitch without pain for the second time in a week. He was held to a limit of 70 pitches, and he reached that after three innings in Toronto's 4-1 win over Baltimore.

    • Gary Washburn:

        With stormy weather approaching Monday night, Camden Yards was virtually lifeless. And that atmosphere appeared to resonate on the Orioles players, who did not mount much of a struggle against the Toronto Blue Jays.

        The Orioles scored in the bottom of the first inning on a Melvin Mora home run and produced nothing else in a 4-1 loss to Toronto in front of a season-low 17,809 at Camden Yards.

    • Mike Ganter:

        The lone run Halladay surrendered last night was a Melvin Mora solo homer that came on a 3-2 curve ball in the first inning. Despite the outcome, it was a pitch Halladay felt was pretty good.

        He would go on to strike out Jay Gibbons and Javy Lopez with the same pitch with men on base later in the game, indicating Halladay's curve was returning to its pre-injury form.

    • David Ginsburg:

        Gregg Zaun homered and Orlando Hudson had three hits and an RBI, leading Toronto past the Baltimore Orioles 4-1 Monday night. The Blue Jays are 38-40 at home and 27-50 on the road, but in Baltimore they're 6-1. Toronto swept the Orioles in a three-game set last month and started this four-game series looking nothing like a last-place club.

    • Larry Millson:

        The victory, by a scorer's decision, went to Brandon League, a recent call-up after he was the most valuable player in the Double-A Eastern League final, won by the Blue Jays' affiliate, New Hampshire.

        League pitched 2 2/3 innings last night, worked out of a first-and-third, one-out situation in the fifth inning and was rewarded with his first major-league victory. Miguel Batista earned his fourth save.



  2. Fordin Notes on Gregg Zaun's foot, Gustavo Chacin's windup, and Roy Halladay:

      If Toronto manager John Gibbons had his way, Monday night's game would've been Roy Halladay's last start of the season. The skipper wants to go into the offseason without worrying about his ace, but the persuasive right-hander talked him into one more outing.

      "I told him I didn't think he needed it," Gibbons said. "But if you think about it, he's come this far. One more isn't going to affect him one way or the other."

  3. Ganter Notes on Joe Breeden's absence and Miguel Batista:

      But heading into next season, Batista says the only way he wants to continue as closer is if he can approach the success rates that pitchers such as Mariano Rivera and Eric Gagne have reached.

      "I have to be maybe not perfect but almost perfect," Batista said. "Anyone can say I'll do it and then just be so-so. I want to do it only if I can do it well. That's what I have to find out -- if I can do the job where I can save 50 or 60 games for this team.


  4. Mark Zwolinski discusses the Carlos contractual situation in "No offer yet for Delgado, GM says":

      "That report is totally false," Ricciardi said of a Toronto television report which claimed the Jays are on the verge of offering their superstar first baseman a three-year deal worth $21 million (all figures U.S.).

      "We haven't talked to Carlos or his agent about anything. The end of the season would be the time we'd make that decision."


  5. Tonight's 7:05PM EST start in Baltimore: LHP Ted Lilly (12-10, 3.92 ERA) vs. RHP Daniel Cabrera (12-7, 4.67 ERA). See the game preview for more details.
Jays Roundup - I Stood and Watched The Dark Sky Rise | 140 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_bird droppings - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#30512) #
So that's the 411 on Delgado then...

I am really starting to wonder if Delgado will be back after the snow?

On a positive note, I am surprised at how well spoken Batista is. He has a superb grasp of Modern English.
_Jordan - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 08:46 AM EDT (#30513) #
There's an almost-throwaway reference in today's Jeff Blair piece in the Globe & Mail stating that John Gibbons is going to be the manager in 2005. That's not official, of course, but if true, it would be welcome and not at all surprising. Gibbons hasn't turned this sow's ear of a ballclub into a silk purse, but I think he's handled the personnel well and has the team playing .500 in September. Considering the Jays aren't in a position to buy an expensive, Larry Dierker-type manager, Gibbons seems like as good a choice as any.
Pistol - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#30514) #
Considering the Jays aren't in a position to buy an expensive, Larry Dierker-type manager, Gibbons seems like as good a choice as any.

Why would Larry Dierker be expensive? He hasn't worked in a few years since being fired and it doesn't seem like there's a lot of demand for him.

If Dierker wanted to manage and the Jays thought he was the top choice I'd have a hard time imagining that they couldn't come to an agreement.

Unless of course the Jays are committed to having one of the lowest paid managers, which Gibbons certainly would be.
Pistol - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#30515) #
Does anyone have a list of what the range of salaries is for managers, or even a complete list? I've Googled it with no success.
_Chris H - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#30516) #
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/04league20s/sal.html
Baseball America has come out with the top twenty prospects in the South Atlantic League. No Blue Jays made it into the top twenty. COMN.
_Jordan - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#30517) #
Pistol, I'm figuring that Dierker is a name manager, and he's very shrewdly kept his name out there in the media, so that he's invariably one of the first people mentioned for a managerial opening. Bobby Valentine has the same amazing ability to keep himself in circulation and in consideration, and he's not even on the continent. Teams overpay for names among managers as well as players, and someone will overpay Dierker too.

Perhaps more to the point, I doubt the Jays would have a whole lot of luck persuading a veteran manager to take over a $50 million, 95-loss, 5th-place team.
_Jordan - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#30518) #
I'm rather surprised that Robinson Diaz didn't make the Sally list, and only mildly surprised that Davis Romero didn't. I might pop by the chat and ask about Diaz.
_Chris H - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#30519) #
I would have thought Marcum had a chance to make it into the top twenty as well...I am sure he had enough innings pitched...
_Moffatt - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#30520) #
Awesome work, bird droppings. Very clever way to identify today's song/artist.

For very cleverly identifying "After the Snow" by Modern English, I award you 250 million points (tied for highest ever), a Modern English related picture:



and a picture of a Cuttlefish related toy:



Sweet.
_Moffatt - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#30521) #
I also want to mention that today's song was supposed to be "Mirror in the Bathroom" by the same band, until I realized just before I posted that I already used that song.

I'm still trying to figure out how to one-up Jordan for his excellent choice of Warren Zevon yesterday.
Thomas - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#30522) #
A few days ago Robert was stating that range factor is a complete junk stat and shouldn't be used as a source to determine a fielder's ability. After reading his arguments and then reading Bill James on traditional fielding metrics, I readily agree.

My question is what is the best defensive stat to use when trying to gauge a fielder's ability? Obviously, I would think observation plays a very important role, but I still feel like there should be some statistical element involved, especially when its a player who you've only seen a few times before. Do fielding win shares solve fielding problems as well as Bill says they do? Is UZR an improvement on zone rating?
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#30523) #
BA's Sally list is filled with top-flight prospects- Young, Stewart, Milledge, Petit, Saltamacchia, Everts, Bourn. The #20 man, Brandon Moss, is a fine, fine prospect. I'm not really surprised that Diaz and Romero didn't make it. I'm a big Davis Romero fan, but he's 21 and he was used as a swing man.

Now, when we come to the FSL, that'll be interesting. Both Marcum and Tablado should be on the list, but it wouldn't surprise me if Marcum is not on it (BA didn't like Bush, and Marcum is in the Bush mould, albeit with a little better stuff).
_Jonny German - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#30524) #
I'm rather surprised that Robinson Diaz didn't make the Sally list, and only mildly surprised that Davis Romero didn't.

Any argument for Diaz would involve quite a bit of tools discussion, and I'm completely unqualified in that department. But as for Romero, the stats say he was close:

17. Scott Mathieson, RHP, Lakewood (02/27/84)
8-9, 4.32 ERA, 131 IP, 112/50 K/BB

18. Matt Albers, RHP, Lexington (01/20/83)
8-3, 3.31 ERA, 111 IP, 140/57 K/BB

Davis Romero, LHP, Charleston-WV (03/30/83)
5-4, 2.53 ERA, 103 IP, 108/30 K/BB

I'm assuming Mathieson (who is Canadian, incidentally) is getting credit for tools and for being a year younger than Albers and Romero, as his stats are clearly inferior. Meanwhile, Romero probably gets knocked for being so small (5'10", 140).
_Jonny German - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#30525) #
I also want to mention that today's song was supposed to be "Mirror in the Bathroom" by the same band, until I realized just before I posted that I already used that song.

Isn't "Mirror in the Bathroom" by The English Beat? Maybe one covered the other...
Pistol - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#30526) #
My question of the day (well, I still want to know manager salary ranges as well):

Brandon League - Where does he start next year and what role is he in?
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#30527) #
Isn't "Mirror in the Bathroom" by The English Beat? Maybe one covered the other...

Yes, it is, and a fine tune and record, if I don't say so myself.

Brandon League will be 22 in March. Just about any role is possible for him- triple A starter, triple A closer, big-league long man, big-league set-up. My best guess is that it'll either be the first (working on a changeup with Brad Arnsberg so that he's ready to start in Toronto in 2006) or the last, the Duane Ward career path (with hopefully a better ending).
_Paul D - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#30528) #
Wow, Batista has alot of confidence.
I like that though. And I like that he said he only has to be almost perfect, so maybe he'll be able to handle the odd blown save.

I say League starts at AAA as a starter. I don't see any rush to turn starters into relievers, so keep them as starters as long as you can.
_Jordan - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#30529) #
If I ran the zoo, League would start 2005 in the Syracuse rotation. But he's been throwing bullets since he arrived in Toronto, and this team desperately, desperately needs a solid bullpen next season (particularly if Batista doesn't return to the rotation). If the Jays decide that League can actually help them next year as a reliever in the Show, then his learning curve is going to receive a sharp upward pull. It's not a risk I'd be prepared to take, personally, because this young man is far from a finished product.
Pistol - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#30530) #
But he's been throwing bullets since he arrived in Toronto, and this team desperately, desperately needs a solid bullpen next season (particularly if Batista doesn't return to the rotation

Did you mean if Batista does return to the rotation?

Even if League could be really useful as a reliever next year, if he can be more useful as a starter for the Jays down the road, and if being in Syracuse is the best way to do that, that's what I'd go with.

Worst case you still have a really good reliver. Best case you have a dominant starter. I'd start him until he proves he can't start.

The other possibility is to have him in Toronto as a reliever, and then eventually move him into the rotation, but I don't think JP's interested in that (or at least I thought I remember him quoted as saying something to that effect).
robertdudek - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#30531) #
UZR; David Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range (similar to UZR) and Defensive Win Shares per inning (if you don't have play-by-play data).
_Smack - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#30532) #
"I call a shutout every day. It just depends on how many times I get shook off." Zaun, talking about game-calling

Sign the man
_Jordan - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#30533) #
No, I meant if Batista doesn't return -- if he stays in the pen, the rotation has a pretty gaping 200-inning hole that will require filling. Halladay, Lilly and Bush should all be fine or better starting options in 2005, but if 2/5 of the rotation is chosen from guys like Towers, Miller, Glynn, Douglass, or a very unproven Gustavo Chacin, then that will be one hard-worked bullpen.

In 2006, League, Rosario and even McGowan could all be available as solid starting options. But for 2005, I'd still like to see another starter brought in from outside the organization, via trade or free agency. Either that, or an improved Miguel Batista.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#30534) #
Lord willing and the creek don't rise, the following are reasonable candidates for spots on the pitching staff of 2006: League, Chacin, Vermilyea, Rosario, McGowan, Banks, and Marcum.

It makes some sense to acquire a pitcher for 2005, provided there is no obligation for 2006. There are relatively few pitchers who will be available on these terms, save for the Chens and Douglasses.

In the medium term, it looks to me as though bench strength will be a greater priority for acquisitions than pitching.
_Peter - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#30535) #
I think League's future is as a reliever and not necessarily a closer. A set-up guy who can give you 2 innings when necessary is invaluable. I liken him and his role to that of Frankie Rodriguez in Anaheim.

I think Brandon does not have enough pitches to be an effective starter. His fastball will be almost enough to make him a successful reliever as long as he can improve one of his other pitches. So, I would place him at Syracuse as a reliever. If he continues to progress I would promote him when he is deemed ready. It would be a mistake to rush him when he's not fully prepared. A mid-season call-up would allow an opportune trade of another reliever as well. More than one factor involved - all pointing to utilizing him in the pen.
Pistol - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#30536) #
No, I meant if Batista doesn't return -- if he stays in the pen, the rotation has a pretty gaping 200-inning hole that will require filling. Halladay, Lilly and Bush should all be fine or better starting options in 2005, but if 2/5 of the rotation is chosen from guys like Towers, Miller, Glynn, Douglass, or a very unproven Gustavo Chacin, then that will be one hard-worked bullpen.

Gotcha. I wasn't thinking it through enough. I was thinking if Batista was in the pen that the pen wouldn't be as strong of a need, ignoring that the rotation spot would likely require more bullpen help.

I still like Batista in the rotation, although the strikeouts and walks are both going in the wrong direction.

Year Inn HR/9 BB/9 K/9 K/BB
2004 195 0.9 4.4 4.7 1.1
2003 193 0.6 2.8 6.6 2.4
Career 1097 0.9 3.9 5.8 1.5
_Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#30537) #
range factor is a complete junk stat

I'm not going there again!

Its a basic stat. Its the defensive equivalent of batting average. Succesful things done per given context. Doesn't measure the type of success, no difficulty points, no illusions taken into account... the usual problems most basic stats have.

Really, you could say most basic stats are junk - they're all full of illusions.

Its too bad it got called "range factor" thus implying that the guy with the highest "range factor" either a) has the most range or b) is the best defender at his position.

I know better, the same way I know Ichiro Suzuki isn't the best hitter around either. But I like to know his batting average.

Oh well, we been there and did that. Guess I went there again...

If I ran the zoo, League would start 2005 in the Syracuse rotation.

Its a very tough call, because League might be capable of being a good ML reliever right now. If he's going to be a ML starter, though, he needs some work. He needs another pitch. A short reliever can get by with just two - very tough for a starter to do that (unless his second pitch is the Big Unit's slider, or something unearthly like that.)

But if they think he's got a chance to be a starter, you have to go for it. Send him to AAA.
_Moffatt - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#30538) #
Isn't "Mirror in the Bathroom" by The English Beat? Maybe one covered the other...

Whoops. I'm always getting those bands mixed up. :)
_Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#30539) #
I would place him at Syracuse as a reliever.

Even if they decide his future is as a reliever, they could very well have him start at Syracuse just so he works more innings and gets more pitching experience.

Worked great with Billy Koch, didn't it?
robertdudek - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#30540) #
Its a basic stat. Its the defensive equivalent of batting average.

It's not, I'm afraid. Batting average includes AB, so we know how many chances to get a hit the player got; RF doesn't indicate how many opportunities the player had to make a fielding play.

Zone Rating is the near equivalent of batting average on defence.
_Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#30541) #
It's not, I'm afraid.

Picky, picky

Ok, OK. Hits per game?
_Caino - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#30542) #
'Even if League could be really useful as a reliever next year, if he can be more useful as a starter for the Jays down the road, and if being in Syracuse is the best way to do that, that's what I'd go with.'
I agree. However, i also forsee him being called up for relief if the jays season starts off on a winning note. The guys throws friggin junk and i fell he's about 90% ready fro the relief role.
as a starter, he would be more valuable, howver, i certainly feel he matches up closer to a K-rod than the big unit.
But all teh same, if he does develope another pitch a la the big unit slider, he could be a sick starter.
_Paul D - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#30543) #
Peter, if League could be a great two inning set up man, why not make him a great two inning closer?
_Caino - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#30544) #
Also,
Isn't lilly's contract up after this season?

If so, and if JP isn't intent on signing him (which would be silly, but we'll see what his market value is after next season) then perhaps signing a pitcher to fill batista's role on a longer term maybe a safer option.

Like all of u, i'm optimistic about our pitching prospects for the 06 season. but that said, it wouldn't hurt to have a three guy for an extra year or two to fill out the rotation.
_Matt S - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#30545) #
Lilly is signed through 2005.
_Caino - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#30546) #
'Lilly is signed through 2005.'

my bad, i thought i heard he was done in 05... awsome.

They should have a website with contracts categorized by team (and if there is please tell me). the only one i found was one which had the players in alpha order.

- not that i checked for lilly, but since the topic is up...
_DJ - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#30547) #
http://dugoutdollars.blogspot.com
Caino - there is such a site, COMN for the link.

Lilly is signed through 2005 but I think he's not a free agent until after 2006.
_Matt - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#30548) #
They should have a website with contracts categorized by team (and if there is please tell me). the only one i found was one which had the players in alpha order.



Well theres this one, which has been linked in threads here before.... it tells us who 2005 FA's are... no contract deet's.... I dunno if thats what you were looking for....

http://kmbumb.people.wm.edu/05agency.html
_Peter - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#30549) #
Paul,
good point. a 2 inning closer is not out of the question. I just prefer the set-up option where even a 3 inning stint is a possibility. Ultimately, it will likely be decided by who else is available for those roles. One cannot rule out any possibility but I liked the way Basso used him in the playoffs when it counted the most. As a bridge between the starter and the short men. Perhaps he is one of 2 set-up men should we be so lucky to have another one of similar calibre - probably not next year but those kind of arms are now in the system.
Joe - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#30550) #
http://me.woot.net
From AaronGleeman.com today:
I tend to get a few e-mails like this every week and most of them, sadly, turn out to be a little overblown. For instance, someone might say something like, "Peter Gammons mentions you in his new ESPN.com column." So I'll get all excited, head over to ESPN.com, and find that Gammons' new column, while making mention of the equation behind Gross Production Average, makes absolutely zero mention of Yours Truly (and rightfully so).
Damn right, "rightfully so." Gleeman named the stat, and chose 1.8 as the multiplier, but the work behind it was done by tangotiger:
The best-fit was based on these 6 samples of players. These are not representative of all players. If you really wanted to find the best-fit among actual players, you'll have to repeat what I did (inserting each player into a team of 8 typical players), but for a much larger sample. I would expect the best-fit equation to fall somewhere between 1.5 and 2.0. If you must rely only on OBA and SLG to establish a player's current run production, it would probably be easiest to do 1.5*OBA+SLG.
_dp - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#30551) #
I haven't been around much lately. Why does Bautista as closer make any sense? Seems like overpaying for an unproven closer. Why do they have to move him out of the starter role? Why not just trade him instead, clear the salary, and sign a decent reliever? Looper got roughly that from the Mets last year.
Pistol - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#30552) #
Aaron's site was one of 4 that was mentioned by SI recently which is pretty cool (along with Primer, SOSH, and Goldman..... where's Da Box!).
_Ryan Lind - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#30553) #
It's a pretty retarded name too...How on Earth can something be both "gross" and "average" ?

I realize they just wanted to get rid of the original name, but still..
Pistol - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#30554) #
Why does Bautista as closer make any sense? Seems like overpaying for an unproven closer? Why do they have to move him out of the starter role? Why not just trade him instead, clear the salary, and sign a decent reliever?

- I'm not sure Batista-closer does make sense.

- His salary should have no impact on his role. They have to pay him regardless of what he does, so you might as well put him in his most effecitve role.

- They don't have to move him from a starter's role, and this was originally described as a 'trial basis'. It's possible that Batista's role next year depends on who the Jays are able to sign.

- Trading Batista to his clear salary assumes that there's a willing taker and the money saved can bring someone in that's more effective. I'm not sure that's realistic at this point.
_Ryan Lind - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#30555) #
Did anyone hear see John Kruk's nomination of Chone Figgins as Major League MVP? Man...his reasoning was that Chone plays a lot of positions and always fills in when needed.

I suppose by Kruk's logic...your 2004 Toronto Blue Jays MVP is

*drumroll*

Dave Berg.
_Ryan Lind - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#30556) #
"hear see" ... wow. I meant "here see," obviously.
_Matt - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#30557) #
Unrelated to baseball, and not new news.... but I'd love to hear if you guys are aware of this article concerning the Indinapolis (and perhaps Toronto) Colts....

btw there's a certain quote in there thats worth the read by itself....

http://www.hoosiergazette.com/Sports/sports008.htm
_Matt - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#30558) #
Yeah that article about Figgins is garbage to everyone but his agent....
_Jordan - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#30559) #
League might be capable of being a good ML reliever right now. If he's going to be a ML starter, though, he needs some work

This is true. And really, the Jays' eventual decision on League might come down to whether they think he can add and command another pitch. If yes, then 2005 at Syracuse should be the place where that happens (not to mention building up his endurance). But if they judge that he's going to top out at two offerings (which does seem a pretty unlikely decision at his age), then they might as well classify him as a reliever right now.

Here's a mid-season Syracuse front four to think happy thoughts about: Brandon League, Francisco Rosario, Josh Banks and Jason Arnold.
_dp - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#30560) #
Trading Batista to his clear salary assumes that there's a willing taker and the money saved can bring someone in that's more effective. I'm not sure that's realistic at this point.

Willing taker I have no idea about, so won't speculate.

Looper made $2 million for the Mets this year. 4 HR, 14 BB in 81 IP, more hits allowed and less strikeouts than you want from a closer, but he was solid. Benitez made $3.5 M for the Marlins, and pitched incredibly- 1.20 ERA, 61 K, 67 IP, 33 hits allowed.

His salary should have no impact on his role. They have to pay him regardless of what he does, so you might as well put him in his most effecitve role

Except that it would mean the team is allocating X dollars to the bullpen. Seems like the strategy of signing a bunch of semi-good relievers and hoping one pitches well isn't paying off. Benitez, and I have no idea if he would've signed with Toronto, would've looked better than Adams/Spier/Lightenberg. I'm not playing hindsight games here- Benitez was really undervalued in the offseason because he got jerked around so much by the Mets. If de facto the Jays are sending that much money into the 'pen, might as well grab someone you know will be good...

I'm really interested to see what they do this offseason in that regard- the last 2 years JP's bullpen plans haven't worked out, so we'll probably see a new strategy.

Speaking of the Jays 'pen, Jayson Werth is having a great season in LA- .270/.352/.510. Anyone else wish we kept him and dealt Johnson instead?
_Ryan Lind - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#30561) #
Yeah, though Werth doesn't hit RHP much better than Reed does.

Splits:

Werth:
vs. LHP: .299 / .390 / .644
vs. RHP, .256 / .333 / .443

Johnson:
vs. LHP: .315 / .367 / .461
vs. RHP: .256 / .305 / .353

Werth has more Power than Johnson, but they are fairly similar.
_Jobu - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#30562) #
Anyone else wish we kept him and dealt Johnson instead?

No.
robertdudek - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#30563) #
Sure - hits per game. And what does that tell you about a hitter?

For example, Scott Podsednik (1.00 hits/G) ranks higher than Jorge Posada (0.89 hits/G).
_Jordan - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#30564) #
I love the David Miller quote from that Colts story. He's pretty clearly a Simpsons fan. He should be careful, though: the Cardinals are as likely to move as any other team....

As for the story itself, pffft. Threatening to move the team is an Irsay family tradition, but this sounds to me like an owner laying the groundwork for negotiations. In any event, Paul Tagliabue will not see a team in Canada before he gets one in LA. And "football-only stadium in Toronto"? Yeah, good luck with that.
_Blue in SK - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#30565) #
Just a thought, but why couldn't League follow the Lowe/Santana model? That is start in the bullpen and move (eventually) to the starting rotation. The Jays certainly could use the arm in the bigs next year. With his blazing fastball, he is unlikely to get hammered around since even his mistake pitches will be difficult for most batters to get around on.

If he has a ML calibre pitch, he's a ML calibre pitcher. His role will sort itself out over time.
_dp - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#30566) #
Ummm...unless I'm missing something, vs RHP, Werth's got 28 points of OB% and 89 points of slugging. That's pretty significant- .333/.443 is borderline OK for a corner OF, while .305/.353 is bad.

Verus LHP, the difference is even more pronounced. Sometimes you get one wrong, and here, it looks like JP got one wrong. We'll need to see more of Werth to know, but I was against giving him up from the start, especially since he was dealt so they could put Pond/Hermansen on the roster. The Jays problems with the outfield wouldn't have been as extreme if they'd kept him around. A Gross/Werth platoon would look pretty good.
_John Northey - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#30567) #
The closer/setup man vs starter issue is an interesting one the Jays have here.

Batista's stats have started to drop as a starter, with the K/9 moving to the danger territory (below 5) and the K-BB ratio is nearing 1. Very big warning signs that he could collapse as a starter next year or soon afterwards (ie: ERA in the 6+ range). However, it is well known his major problem tends to be 'too many pitches' - namely his 6+ available major league caliber pitches available to him at any time - he starts fiddling around trying to find the best one and out-thinks himself at times trying to find the ideal one of the batch. Cutting him down to just 2-4 pitches as a closer should improve his results, perhaps drastically. Plus he has endurance if a game goes into extra innings which most closer do not have any more. As Batista says, if he can be near perfect (say 50-5 Saves-Blown Saves) then his value is higher as a closer than as a 4.5-5.5 ERA starter, especially given how he dies off at the end of a season. Something of note is JP said on the radio that he felt the ideal closer is not available at this time thus making Batista a lot more attractive in that role.

Now the other issue, Brandon League. Looking good thus far in the majors but just 4 2/3 innings. A total opposite case. Batista has too many pitches, League too few. It seems he has 1 major league pitch and another near-ML pitch and a couple of minor league ones. Do the Jays think he can learn a solid 3rd pitch thus allowing him to be an effective starter, or is he, as someone else said, a new Duane Ward? I'd basically look at the system and decide if enough starters are coming up, and the need in the pen is high enough to just say 'screw it' and put him in the pen for a year and see what happens. Jimmy Key was quite effective being developed that way, a year in the pen then starting the next year. Could that work for League or is he a pen lifer in waiting?

I think everything hinges on who the Jays have/can find for the pen for 2005. If a premium closer is available and they get him then Batista is back in the rotation. If JP feels OK with a pen of Speier (is he a free agent?), Frasor, Chulk, Miller, and Ligtenberg with Batista/free agent closing then League should go to AAA and start (or close if that is the goal for him in '06). I suspect we'll see Batista closing and League starting in AAA to begin '05 unless injuries occur.
_Caino - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#30568) #
'Well theres this one, which has been linked in threads here before.... it tells us who 2005 FA's are... no contract deet's.... I dunno if thats what you were looking for....

http://kmbumb.people.wm.edu/05agency.html'

- close as i've seen. thanks matt.
_dp - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#30569) #
Estaban Loiza would make a great closer...
_Moffatt - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#30570) #
Sometimes you get one wrong, and here, it looks like JP got one wrong.

As I said yesterday, I don't see JP tolerating a guy who strikes out as much as Werth does.

Given everything he's said on the air, JP is probably the most strikeoutaphobic guy around these parts save for Mike D.
_Ryan Lind - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#30571) #
You're right dp, I was undervaluing 28 points of OBP there.

My point though was that Werth is basically a lefty masher, just like Reed.
_Mike Wilner - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#30572) #
Just woke up from my post-Sportsnet nap and took a look at last night's thread. You asked me to explain my thought process, so I hope it's OK that I do it here.

My idea was to move the Senaxpos to the AL East, the Pirates to the NL East and the Jays to the Central. It was kind of an off-the-top of my head kind of thing, and I didn't realize that that would mean 15 teams in each league, which means MLB would never go for it. I think a balanced schedule would be the fairest thing to introduce overall. But then again, I don't think the Jays will be stuck behind the Yankees and Red Sox forever either way.

I also talked about adding two wild-card teams and having all three play a one-game elimination wild card tournament at a neutral site the first two days of the playoffs (3 plays 2, winner plays 1) to give the division winners a real advantage come playoff time.

So there's the clarification about what I was talking about with Eric Smith last night. Feel free to discuss, ignore, use as electronic birdcage liner, whatever floats your respective boats!
_Ryan Lind - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#30573) #
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SO_season.shtml
Speaking of strikeouts, Adam Dunn has 183 of them. The record (comn) is 189, held by Bobby Bonds.

Forget Ichiro, can Dunn catch Bonds?
_dp - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#30574) #
I don't see JP tolerating a guy who strikes out as much as Werth does.

Wow, that sucks. Werth does walk a good amount to balance it out- more than Josh Phelps did coming up. And he's a capable defender with speed, not a plodding slugger. Was hurt last year, had a poor year at Syracuse. JP basically traded him when his value was lowest, and that's the kind of move I don't like, dealing a guy when you have to not when you want to.

Mike- JP's strikeoutaphoia (have you copyrighted that?) aside, do you think it was a bad deal?
_Moffatt - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#30575) #
I also talked about adding two wild-card teams and having all three play a one-game elimination wild card tournament at a neutral site the first two days of the playoffs (3 plays 2, winner plays 1) to give the division winners a real advantage come playoff time.

I'd probably only add 1 wild card team, not two, but it's an idea I've really liked for a long time.

For scheduling purposes, the neutral site makes a lot of sense. So we'd see Boston play Anaheim in Kansas City and Chicago play San Fran in Arizona. That could work. :)
_Moffatt - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#30576) #
Mike- JP's strikeoutaphoia (have you copyrighted that?) aside, do you think it was a bad deal?

Not really. Werth wouldn't have gotten any playing time in TO. If you have Werth and not Reed, you still need to carry another outfielder, because Reed can play center and Werth can't.

In my eyes it's pretty much a win-win deal, though I do think the Dodgers "won" more than the Jays did.
_Jordan - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#30577) #
One wacky proposition I read today was that the Orioles would move to the NL East and the relocated Expos would end up in the AL East. I don't really see why Angelos would want that. The Yankees and Red Sox are cash cows for divisional opponents that host them; what you lose in competitive ability, you gain in gate receipts. I don't know of many organizations that would trade the latter for the former, and I certainly don't think of the O's as one of them.
_Caino - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#30578) #
Personally i'd prefer to see the jays in the american league. this for no reason other than that's what i'm used to. But i think everyone on this site agrees that instituting an even schedual and 2 more wild cards would be awsome for jay fans inparticular and baseball fans in general.

still, it's pretty cool that mike wilmer uses this thing.

Hey mike, if ur still around, ur awsome, and i think u guys should do more jays talk. i enjoy ur take on the goings on, and listening to u answering the questions of callers.

besides, no one would miss stormin normin if he came on a bit late

(my apologies to stormin if he also frequents this site, but i'm a fan of jay talk.)
Thomas - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#30579) #
I didn't want to rehash the argument. All I wanted was an answer of what is better? Does fielding win shares or UZR do the job, or are they no better?
_Moffatt - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#30580) #
One wacky proposition I read today was that the Orioles would move to the NL East and the relocated Expos would end up in the AL East. I don't really see why Angelos would want that.

What would be the point of that? I thought the reason people were trying to move the Expos to the AL is that the new Senators3 would have an automatic league rival in the Orioles.

Craig is right that MLB doesn't like having two teams in the same league in the same market. I guess they're worried that one of them will turn into Man City.
_6-4-3 - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#30581) #
What would be the point of that?

I'm 80% sure that this rumor came from Batlimore's manager. Yesterday there was a comment from him, where he said that part of the compinsation for Baltimore could be a move to the NL. It still doesn't make sense to me, but it sounded like an offhand remark.
_Ken - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#30582) #
Re: League. I think that people are forgetting that if the Jays choose to start him the bullpen and then eventually send him to the rotation if he masters a third pitch, they may regret it in the future.

If League does become a starter he will, in all probability, take a longer time to do it at the mlb level and the jays (assuming that they will still have financial restictions, which I think is entirely likely) could conceivably lose him after 5 years to free agency.

Given the limited information we have, it seems that the rotation in Syracuse is where League should go until he proves he can't handle starting, since starters are a far more valuable commodity than relievers.
_Caino - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#30583) #
speir signed a one year 1.6 mil contarct and is arbitration eligibly at the end of this season...

I think someone was asking that earlier.
_Caino - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#30584) #
Very tru ken.
_Caino - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#30585) #
something i've been curious about-

Does being a september call up count as a year in the majors??
robertdudek - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#30586) #
Given everything he's said on the air, JP is probably the most strikeoutaphobic guy around these parts save for Mike D.

Except when the discussion turns to the subject of Eric Hinske. I haven't heard J.P. mention strikeouts and Hinske in the same sentence for a long time.

To Mike Wilner,

I'd like you to ask J.P. what he thinks about Adam Dunn, who is 5 strikeouts away from breaking the all-time freakin' single season record.

And while you're at it, it wouldn't hurt to mention that the Red Sox have struck out about 110 more times than the Jays this year.

The problem with the Jays offence isn't strikeouts - it's lack of homeruns and way too many GIDPs given the number of baserunners we've had.
_Wunderbat - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#30587) #
I think Frasor and Batista have gotten a bit of an unfair knock against them. Batista is still a very capable starter. Up until August, you could make a case that he was our best. I thought he could have been our all-star representative. Then something went wrong and he seemed to completely lose his control, and I have no idea what.

As for Frasor, his numbers have definitely declined, althought he has been a bit more effective lately. However, lets not forget he did save 17/19 opportunities. Thats almost a 90% success rate. He simply got the job done when called upon.

Now I am not advocating Frasor for closer, or Batista for closer. I think Batista should stay in the bullpen for the rest of the year so he can work out his troubles and drop a few pitches. But if JP wants to get 2 bats as it is, I doubt we have the money to add another quality starter. So unless one of the kids is ready to start for the season next year, I can't see how Batista stays in the pen. If halfway through next season, Batista is still struggling and one of the kids seems ready, then this move makes sense. For now, I like the idea of Batista working out his problems and going to fewer pitches (which is kind of necessitated by moving to the closer position).
_Ken - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#30588) #
Mike- I'm being nitpicky but Man City have a huge fanbase, I think they draw the 3rd largest amount of fans in the premiership. The situation in England is difficult to compare because there is really only one major sport and cities like Manchester can afford to support 2-3 teams. London has well over 10. Am I right in saying that the Twins and Brewers have basically one market to share??
robertdudek - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#30589) #
Werth can play centre - maybe not for a whole season, but as much as Reed has this year. He might be a teeny bit worse than Reed there, but there have be oodles of stop gap centrefielders with worse defensive abilities than Jayson Werth.
_Ken - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#30590) #
Caino- A september call-up does not count as a full year. Since we are on the subject, does anyone know if Rios will qualify?
robertdudek - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#30591) #
Rios looks like a candidtae for super-two status, since he came up fairly early this year (mid May IIRC). If he is a super-two, he'll be arb-eligible after 2006 (i.e. his salary for 2007 might be decided in arbitration if the two parties do not agree on it beforehand).

But if he is optioned next year and spends time in the farm, his service time might be reduced to the point where he is no longer a super-2. I don't see that happening unless he struggles mightily with the bat next year.

Super-2 status depends on the his service time rank as compared to other major leaguers with at least 2, but less than 3, years of service time as of the conclusion of a given season.

If Rios somehow does not qualify for super-2 status at the end of 2006, he will almost certainly go over 3.0 years service time after 2007 and will thus be arb-eligible for 2008.
_Ryan01 - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#30592) #
Rios won't qualify for a full season, but at ~130 days of service time this year he could be dangerously close to becoming a super-2 (eligible for arbitration a year early) after 2006. The cutoff, generally floats around 130-140 days.
_dp - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#30593) #
Not really. Werth wouldn't have gotten any playing time in TO. If you have Werth and not Reed, you still need to carry another outfielder, because Reed can play center and Werth can't.

Sorry, I missed the discussion about Werth yesterday. He can play center AFIK- he did in Syracuse, not sure if he has in LA (I'd look, but my work comp is slow as hell today). This came up in the discussions around the time of the deal. The issue at the time wasn't between Reed and Jayson, but between Jayson and a swing OF- they carried Pond because he hit lefthanded, but then didn't play him. It was really frustrating watching the roster moves that first month. Still, between Johnson and Werth, I'd take Werth. He was a high percentage basestealer once he moved off catcher, drew a ton of walks, and hit for moderate power.

I dunno- we all have the guys we like, and I like Werth, have been pulling for them since they got him. Happy to see him succeed, but I really wish it could've been with the Jays. If JP's bias against strikeouts makes him prefer Johnson to Werth, that's a problem IMO.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#30594) #
I have a friendly addition to Robert's list of what is wrong with the Jays' offence this year- a relative inability to get on base. The decrease in strikeouts has not been met with an increased ability to get on base. In fact, quite the contrary. Without that, what is the point?

Reducing strikeouts, with the aim of increasing on-base percentage at the price of a reduction in power, is a reasonable strategy with a high power/low OBP offence. The Jays' offence of 03 really did not fit into that category, and reducing strikeouts seems to have adversely affected both parts of offence creation- getting baserunners on, and driving them home.
_Moffatt - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#30595) #
Except when the discussion turns to the subject of Eric Hinske. I haven't heard J.P. mention strikeouts and Hinske in the same sentence for a long time.

I think there's a pretty good reason for that.

Look at Hinske's SO/PA ratios:

2002: .212
2003: .202
2004: .170

The Jays seem to be working really hard on making Hinske get the ball in play a lot more often.

Of course, it pretty much killed the rest of his game. He isn't getting on base nearly as much as he used to and most of his power is gone. But, hey, he's not striking out as much any more.
_Moffatt - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#30596) #
The Jays' offence of 03 really did not fit into that category, and reducing strikeouts seems to have adversely affected both parts of offence creation- getting baserunners on, and driving them home.

The strange thing is that the Jays on a team level are still striking out as much as they did last year, though, the stats are inflated by pressing inferior players into roles due to injuries.

Still, though, the Jays seem to be taking less pitches and trying to put the ball in play more than they did last year.
Pistol - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#30597) #
One thing to remember about Werth is that we're looking at about 1/2 of a season right now. I wouldn't be so certain that his ave/obp/slg is an established level of performance. Remember, he was pretty brutal last year in Syracuse.

Benitez, and I have no idea if he would've signed with Toronto, would've looked better than Adams/Spier/Lightenberg. I'm not playing hindsight games here- Benitez was really undervalued in the offseason because he got jerked around so much by the Mets.

If you did some searching around these parts I was one of those on the 'sign Benitez' bandwagon. I don't know if he would have signed with TO either last year but his price was in the Tim Worrell offer range IIRC.

One wacky proposition I read today was that the Orioles would move to the NL East and the relocated Expos would end up in the AL East. I don't really see why Angelos would want that.

I read an article today that quoted Angelos as saying he had no interest in that.

Does being a september call up count as a year in the majors??

I believe it's counted in days. So if the season is 180 days the number of days in the majors is your time in the majors. So if Adams is up for all of September it's 1/6th of 1 year.
_Moffatt - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#30598) #
If you're called up in September, though, I don't believe that counts as service time.
Pistol - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#30599) #
Google is great......

So here's our question: who do you think will lead the Jays in saves in 2004, and how much will he cost?

12183 Posted 11/16/2003 08:39 PM by Pistol:

Benitez - $3 million

He seems to have a stigma attached to him from his NY days, with highly visable blown saves for the Mets, and lasting just a few weeks with the Yankees, so I think a lot of teams that need a closer will pass on him.

If you can overlook that he's been pretty dominant otherwise. I can see him falling through the cracks and the Jays landing him.


Turns out he signed for $3.5 million.
Pistol - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#30600) #
If you're called up in September, though, I don't believe that counts as service time.

Really? Why wouldn't it?
_Moffatt - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#30601) #
Really? Why wouldn't it?

Because they're not on the 25-man roster.
_dp - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#30602) #
One thing to remember about Werth is that we're looking at about 1/2 of a season right now. I wouldn't be so certain that his ave/obp/slg is an established level of performance. Remember, he was pretty brutal last year in Syracuse.

Agreed. But he was hurt (wrist?) a lot of last year, which is why I was against dealing him. The two former catchers-of-the-future-who-won't-stick-at-catcher are both gone. Those guys gave me a lot of hope.

If you did some searching around these parts I was one of those on the 'sign Benitez' bandwagon.

I'd totally forgotten that this came up here over the winter. Maybe it's because I just have an oppositional attitude in general and the NY papers always gave him crap, but I loved Benitez with the Mets. A filthy pitcher when he's on. Lots of cheap closer-types last offseason, not so much this year.
_Scott Levy - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#30603) #
Two things with Werth..

1) He's got a big lefty-righty platoon split.

Player A vs RHP: .279-.348-.383, 290 at bats
Player B vs RHP: .256-.333-.443, 176 at bats

The first player is Reed Johnson in his rookie year, the second is Werth in his rookie year (this year).

That's the big issue here. This is Werth's first trip around the league. How many players take the league by storm the first time around but hit a wall when pitchers adjust? What happens when he's facing RHP for 400 at bats and lefties for 100? What will be the split then?

2) Werth's minor league numbers show an inability to make consistent contact. Whether he can adjust and hit for a high average in the majors remains to be seen, but it's not the type of talent he showed in the minors, healthy or otherwise. He also strikes out a ton. He has a career 108 strike outs in 348 career at bats. He's only walked 38 times in that span for a BB/K rate of 0.35 (0.39 this season). That has to increase if he's going to be a good player. According to his 162 game averages, it is 23 home runs and 143 strike outs in 462 at bats with 50 walks.

RIght now, it's too early to tell with Werth. Josh Phelps tore up the league in first time around, and look at him now?

Frasor is also in his rookie year, and has hit a wall, possibly dead arm period. Frasor has a 6.92 K/9, .699 OPS against, and has only given up 4 home runs in 66.1 innings. Other than his walk total, which is a serious problem, he's shown signs of being a quality big league reliever. Considering he's 2 (?) years removed from surgery, and jumped from AA to the bigs (with something like 5 innings of AAA experience), I wouldn't classify his 2004 as a failure.

Right now, it's a trade that should favor the Dodgers, since Werth is an everyday OF and Frasor is a reliever, but unless Werth really breaks out, i don't think Ricciardi will have too many sleepless nights questioning this move, neither should any of us.
_Scott Levy - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#30604) #
Rios, Catalanotto, Wells, Adams, and to a lesser extent Hudson don't strike out that much. The Jays may be flirting with a new philosophy of putting the ball in play, instead of walking and waiting for the 3 run jack. JP has also been a little more conscious about defense lately, even mentioning long-term talks with Orlando Hudson.

Could the Jays be turning into a pitching dependent team next season and beyond? At this rate, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the team threw big money at Matt Clement, found a cheap non-tendered 1B with good defense, and went the A's route. With the pitching coming up through the system, including Rosario, League, McGowan (if healthy), Banks, Marcum, etc, that might be a possibility.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#30605) #
Right now, it's a trade that should favor the Dodgers, since Werth is an everyday OF and Frasor is a reliever, but unless Werth really breaks out, i don't think Ricciardi will have too many sleepless nights questioning this move, neither should any of us.

I don't wish sleepless nights on anyone, but having a decent 4th outfielder on the roster, rather than Dave Berg, is a good idea. Whether Werth could have fulfilled that role here this year is a good question; I know that there were concerns from him regarding his playing time.

Whether or not the Werth/Frasor deal was a good one, there was a missing piece in the club going into the season.
_Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#30606) #
If League does become a starter he will, in all probability, take a longer time to do it at the mlb level and the jays (assuming that they will still have financial restictions, which I think is entirely likely) could conceivably lose him after 5 years to free agency.

The flip side of that is Billy Koch, who went straight into a closer's role, rang up 30 plus save seasons right away, and was eligible for big arbitration money quite early on. Two organizations have already dumped his salary (now, they're just dumping him...)

Scott Podsednik (1.00 hits/G) ranks higher than Jorge Posada (0.89 hits/G).

You mean you think Posada's a better hitter? :-)

Ah, so do I. Even if Podsednik is marginally more likely to get a hit today than Posada. Over 162 games, he should get an extra 19 hits.

Of course, over 162 games Miguel Tejada will make 176 more plays than David Eckstein.

Now just because RF is saying this, doesn't make David Eckstein is a bad infielder. It doesn't even prove that he's not as good as Tejada. Eckstein's ZR is middle of the pack. We also see the same effect with other Anaheim infielders. Adam Kennedy, for example, has a mediocre RF and the best ZR in the league.

But 176 plays a year - it's a big deal. Its a lot to account for.

I think that when people call the stat "junk" and "useless" I respond as if they're calling the components of the stat junk and useless.

And the components are pretty fundamental - defensive innings, assists, putouts.

Calling it "range factor" is dumb. But that's what it got called.

The whole thing about "range" - what is it? What do we mean by it? Why should we care? Is it a tool? The capacity to react quickly and scoot from side to side? Is it an ability? The ability to cover a lot of ground? Is it the capacity to make more plays?

Just a troublesome word...

Does being a September call up count as a year in the majors??

No. A "year" in the majors is 172 days. A September callup just gets the days - in League's case, that will be about 15.

Coming into this season, Carlos Delgado had nine years and two days of service time - his eight complete seasons (1996-2003) and his three partial seasons (1993-1995) in which he accumulated 174 days of service time.

If they hadn't called him up in September 1993 (he got one AB and appeared once at C as a defensive replacement) he's finish this year with about 9 years and 150 days. As it is, he becomes a 10 and 5 guy, which further complicates his free agency.
_Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#30607) #
If you're called up in September, though, I don't believe that counts as service time.

It definitely counts. Its the "active" roster, not the 25 man roster. The active roster after September 1 can be anywhere fom 25 to 40.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#30608) #
My definition of range-"the ability of a defender to successfully make plays on balls on which the defender has an opportunity to make plays".

It's very hard to measure statistically for a variety of reasons, but the concept goes back to Branch Rickey (famously) and before.
_Ryan Lind - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#30610) #
Yes, I already conceded that.

Though Reed had a .348 OBP vs. RHP last year.
_Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#30611) #
Werth's minor league numbers show an inability to make consistent contact.

They also show a player who drew a lot more walks than he has so far at the ML level. I expect he will increase his walk rate as he goes forward.

I didn't like the trade just because I had ridiculously high hopes for Werth - I got way too excited and thought he might turn into Dale Murphy.

Its not a good thing to have a lot of players with the same weakness. Werth strikes out a ton - so does Delgado, and so did Phelps. Johnson has different skills and different weaknesses (and less upside, too)

That's assuming Johnson's your 4th OF, of course. As has been noted, the Jays started off with Johnson in the everday lineup and without a 4th OF.

i don't think Ricciardi will have too many sleepless nights questioning this move, neither should any of us.

Of course not - it was dealing from strength (the depth of OF talent in the system) to address a weakness (relief pitching.) Exactly what a good trade should do. There's absolutely nothing wrong with the other team getting a player that helps them.
_Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#30612) #
"That report is totally false," Ricciardi said

Wow. If you can't count on Marty York, what can you count on?
Pistol - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#30613) #
Admittedly, I didn't see the 3 for $21 rumor that was denied as a contract offer, but it wouldn't shock me if that's what the team decided is that best they could offer.
_Scott Levy - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#30614) #
I think the main reasons why Werth was traded were because the team didn't see him as a role player, he hadn't earned a starting spot over Johnson, and was out of options. They could have kept him on as a 4th OF, and in hindsight, he would have got a lot of playing time in the OF with the injuries, but the team would have been better off with a LHB to platoon or at least mix in with Johnson, which I think was their hope with Pond, but obviously backfired.

In the long run, I think the Jays can get better production for cheap out of Johnson and Gross in LF than thhe could have with Werth.
_Ducey - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#30616) #
http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/chat.php?id=2004092801&rnd=3
The BA chat has some interesting tidbits about some "Charlie West" players including Mastny, Roberts and Diaz COMN
_Jordan - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#30617) #
Interesting comments on Mastny ... it confirms what I had heard elsewhere that his stuff is good, but not great. Diaz arguably could've cracked the Top 20, but at best he'd be around #18. John's explanation of their choices was quite reasonable.

I'm looking forward to the FSL report, and hoping that Marcum gets a mention there.
Pistol - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#30618) #
Pulled from the BA chat:

Q: Kevin Casey from Boston asks:
Seems like every year the Blue Jays take a college closer and turn him into a successful starter - Bush, Banks, and now Marcum. What do they look for and what's the secret to making the transition?

A: John Manuel: Following up . . . Banks did start his junior season in college; that conversion was made by Danny Price and Fla. International, not the Jays. Give them credit on Bush; they liked his changeup in instructional league and thought a four-pitch guy with polish and great makeup shouldn't be limited to 80 innings a year. Nice call. Marcum was a two-way guy in college, a very good defensive shortstop at SMS, and that's why he didn't start. I'd say other organizations may have made the same move. I liked Toronto's college-heavy drafts from 2002 and 2003 quite a bit.

_Jordan - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#30619) #
Reading a little farther on ... BA isn't as high on Marcum as I am; they're worried about his fastball. They could well be right, but we'll see what he does at Double-A. Marcum split the season between the Sally and the FSL, so he probably won't make either league's top 20 list anyway.

Thinking ahead, the Eastern League rankings should be interesting. I would imagine that Banks and League might receive mentions, even though Banks struggled upon his arrival and League's overall numbers weren't overpowering; Vermilyea would be a dark horse possibility if they liked his perfect game enough. Among hitters, Aaron Hill is a good candidate too. In any event, all these lists are a good reminder that other teams have strong farm systems, too.
robertdudek - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#30620) #
RF doesn't tell you anything meaningful that other stats don't, and it's subject to such large distortions that it is foolhardy to infer anything about range from it. And if it does not speak to range, then what do you want to do with it? It's no use invoting its status as a counting stat: counting stats that can't be used for some constructive purpose (like how many times a 1B picks his nose) are junk.

Magpie - find something that it's useful for, because I can't. That's why it's a junk stat in my book - a stat that isn't of any use.

This is the last time I will comment on Range Factor for the rest of the calendar year.
Named For Hank - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#30621) #
counting stats that can't be used for some constructive purpose (like how many times a 1B picks his nose) are junk.

Geez, Robert, why don't you tell me these things before I compile all the data?
_Rob - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#30622) #
counting stats that can't be used for some constructive purpose (like how many times a 1B picks his nose) are junk.

Who says it's a pick? It could be a scratch. Was there nostril penetration?
_Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#30623) #
This is the last time I will comment on Range Factor for the rest of the calendar year.

M: Is this the right room for an argument?

A: I told you once.

M: No you haven't.

A: Yes I have.

M: When?

A: Just now.

M: No you didn't.

A: Yes I did.

M: You didn't

A: I did!

M: You didn't!

A: I'm telling you I did!

M: You did not!!

A: Oh, I'm sorry, just one moment. Is this a five minute argument or the full half hour?

M: Oh, just the five minutes.

A: Ah, thank you. Anyway, I did.

M: You most certainly did not.

A: Look, let's get this thing clear; I quite definitely told
you.

M: No you did not.

A: Yes I did.

M: No you didn't.

A: Yes I did.

M: No you didn't.

A: Yes I did.

M: No you didn't.

A: Yes I did.

M: You didn't.

A: Did.

M: Oh look, this isn't an argument.

A: Yes it is.

M: No it isn't. It's just contradiction.

A: No it isn't.

M: It is!

A: It is not.

M: Look, you just contradicted me.

A: I did not.

M: Oh you did!!

A: No, no, no.

M: You did just then.

A: Nonsense!

M: Oh, this is futile!

A: No it isn't.

M: I came here for a good argument.

A: No you didn't; no, you came here for an argument.

M: An argument isn't just contradiction.

A: It can be.

M: No it can't. An argument is a connected series of statements
intended to establish a proposition.

A: No it isn't.

M: Yes it is! It's not just contradiction.

A: Look, if I argue with you, I must take up a contrary
position.

M: Yes, but that's not just saying 'No it isn't.'

A: Yes it is!

M: No it isn't!

M: Argument is an intellectual process. Contradiction is just
the automatic gainsaying of any statement the other person
makes.

A: No it isn't.

M: It is.

A: Not at all.

M: Now look.

A: (Rings bell) Good Morning.

M: What?

A: That's it. Good morning.

M: I was just getting interested.

:-(
Craig B - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#30624) #
counting stats that can't be used for some constructive purpose (like how many times a 1B picks his nose) are junk

I'm sick and tired of you stats nazis running down Ichiro's record-setting accomplishments.
_Jobu - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#30625) #
I still like Craig's "Special ED" idea from yesterday's game thread.
_Jordan - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#30626) #
That was never five minutes.....
_Caino - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#30627) #
when they signed catalanado, JP said he wasnted two more bats. i'm curious about where they'd put them?

One would most certanally be for a 1st baseman. but what of the other bat?

it could basically only fit in left feild or catcher. unless cat plays more time in left than dh.

any thoughts?

(i know it's late, and most day time bloggers are probly finished for the day - myslef i'm at school- so i may re-post this 2morrow. it's been festering in the back of my mind for a bit now and i wouldn't mind hearing ppl's thoughts).
_Loveshack - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#30628) #
when they signed catalanado, JP said he wasnted two more bats. i'm curious about where they'd put them?

I could be wrong but I thought the "2 more bats" quote was before the Catalnatto re-signing.
_Ryan Lind - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#30629) #
I didn't know JP signed Catalanado. When did that happen?
_lewis lapham - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#30630) #
JP cud sine a bat for DH. Catalanado is a lefty they cud sine a ritey. If Batitsa is the clozer then they need anuder starter.

Who do they sine for 1st base. I agree with Caino, Deldago is certanally gone, what do ppl think about Mike Sweeny, he was gud in KC.

Hey Caino, what R U studing?
_Loveshack - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#30631) #
http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Baseball/MLB/Toronto/2004/09/14/628976.html
Ryan, check the roundup and newspapers for Sept 13-14.

And Im wrong COMN

Catalanotto, though, is just the beginning.

"I'd like to get two more bats," Ricciardi said. "I'd like to keep Delgado and then we'd have to find another one."
_Ryan Lind - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#30632) #
No, see, I was ...

Nevermind.

Loveshack, are there other message boards you attend...hockey boards perhaps?
_Rob - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#30633) #
http://www.battersbox.ca/archives/00002401.shtml#24016
I think Ryan was making a joke re: Catalanotto vs. catalanado. ;)

COMN for his post in the Cat signing thread.
_Caino - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#30634) #
ya he got signed a week and a bit ago i think. a 5 mill over two extenion.

I'm in psyc at waterloo.
_Loveshack - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#30635) #
Loveshack, are there other message boards you attend...hockey boards perhaps?
Caught me. Who be you?

And sorry but jokes about the spelling of Catalanado vs Catalanotto are far too subtle for me to pick up on.
_Ryan Lind - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#30636) #
It's okay. I'm the "king" of jokes that aren't funny.
_Caino - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#30637) #
Ya cause Cat can play any of lf (sorta) dh and first.

But besdies that, i dunno where the most pressing need is?

zaun/quiroz is ok at catcher, so if gross/johnson at left.
but they have some cash to spend on some hittin, and i dunno where it would be designated.

both gross and quiroz would benefit form another year at AAA i think. but for next year they woud be passable as platoon players.

but presumably one of those two positions will be filled form an outside FA.
_Caino - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#30638) #
And sorry but jokes about the spelling of Catalanado vs Catalanotto are far too subtle for me to pick up on.

Yes far too subtle. i've been scanning too many pages out of text books to notice that
_Caino - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#30639) #
sweeny 2004

G AB R H 2B3BHR RBI BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
106 411 56 118 23 0 22 79 33 44 3 2 .287 .347 .504 .851

that wouldn't be half bad. doesn't replace delgado... but still, if u get him, and one more guy who can hit 20 dingers, that ain't bad
_Caino - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#30640) #
though it says on espn he is the second year of a five-year, $55 million contract.
_Caino - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#30641) #
lol.

but i got a 3 hr psyc lecture.

enjoy the game all.
_Ducey - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#30642) #
i've been scanning too many pages out of text books to notice that

Caino, did you notice that the authors of those texts likely used caps to start a sentence, spelled most of the words right, and used proper puctuation?

As you didn't pick up on Lewis' subtle reminder above (I hope Lewis can spell better than that!) I will spell it out for you. Please try to make your comments in proper English. It makes your post a lot easier to read and gives you a little more credibility.
_Jonny German - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#30643) #
Thanks for saying what we're all thinking, Ducey.
_Ryan Lind - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#30644) #
Looks like today's game isn't going to happen. :(
_GregH - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#30645) #
I heard during an update on The Fan 590 that Brian Butterfield had been interviewed on the station earlier this morning and had said there was expected to be a review of the Jays coaching staff by Thursday of this week.

Did anyone hear the interview and, if so, was there anything of interest?
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#30646) #
Lewis Lapham was (still is?) the editor of Harper's. I suspect that it was a pseudonym.:-?
robertdudek - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#30647) #
Who says it's a pick? It could be a scratch. Was there nostril penetration?

This, like the hit-error call, is a scorer's judgment call ;-)
_Willy - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#30648) #
I'm in psyc at waterloo.

Well, at least you're where you belong. Hope they can help you.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#30649) #
A small excerpt from the BA chat on the South Atlantic League top 20:

John Manuel:" ... Marcum has moved pretty well already for a guy in his first full year as a pitcher only; he's got excellent athletic ability that translates into good command. Also, he throws a good curve and change. I'd say the fastball and fastball command will be the key for him, but he doesn't have David Bush's stuff, so to me he's more of a back-of-the-rotation guy than Bush".

I've read in a few places that Marcum's slider is nasty. As far as I am concerned, Marcum's only issue is endurance. He tends to blow 'em away for 3-4 innings, but after 50-70 pitches, he becomes much more of a control pitcher. If he doesn't develop the endurance, he'd make a fine closer in the Keith Foulke mould.

"Good" command? I'd say that was an understatement.

Oh well, enough parsing of BA's perspective. Let's just say that most of us here like Marcum a lot more than BA, but the difference is not because of any organizational bias, but because of a different philosophy. BA values young pitchers with blazing fastballs very highly (which will probably be reflected when Brandon League is rated). Most of us like that too, but take a more balanced view of what makes a successful pitcher. We're also very conscious of how often young pitchers with blazing fastballs get injured before they ever develop the secondary pitches to succeed in the Show.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 28 2004 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#30650) #
Oh, yeah. That, and we remember Billy Koch.
Thomas - Wednesday, September 29 2004 @ 12:01 AM EDT (#30651) #
Is anyone else getting worried about the A's postseason chances? Tim Hudson's poor start today combined with Anaheim's victory over Texas means there will be a tie atop the AL West tomorrow, barring a miraculous comeback. It will be a thrilling series to end the year.

In the NL the Cubbies lost, the Astros won and the Giants are beating the Padres. A valiant season by San Diego, but Jake Peavy's stretch on the DL will prove quiet costly. San Fran is winning, and if they hold on they'll move into a tie with the Cubbies, with Houston only half a game out. LA is losing, so the Giants will only be two back for the NL West, as well.
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