Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Here's the last in a series of monthly report cards for the Blue Jays for 2004. Executive summary: blaah.

Hitting
Except for the big bombers and Adams, it was a quiet month for the Jays bats. Stats given are AVG/OBP/SLG for September, and are taken from the ESPN web site. October stats aren't included; grrr.

Russ Adams
.308 .348 .523
Had a few early throwing errors, but doesn't seem fazed by major league baseball; I like rookies who play like they've always belonged here. His defense seems to be better than advertised; Butterfield's infield coaching probably gets the credit for this. Displayed unexpected power; sometimes, this is because pitchers are constantly challenging newbies with fastballs. Call it Phelps-Cruz Syndrome; I don't think it will last, and I'm not sure that his average will hold up, either. Still, you can't complain about somebody who starts his career hitting .300 with power and playing a decent shortstop, can you? Has clearly passed Woodward and Gomez on the depth chart, and probably has the job for 2005.
Grade: A-

Dave Berg
.000 .000 .000
First, he lost his outfield playing time to Gabe Gross. Now, he's lost his infield playing time to Frank Menechino. Batted eight times all month. Didn't get a hit. This was his season in microcosm. I'll be surprised if he returns. Or plays anywhere in the major leagues.
Grade: F

Kevin Cash
.250 .222 .625
When you're a young player, and you're getting no playing time in September, it's time to start scanning the help wanted ads. Managed to hit a home run in September. Perhaps he could make a living as a catching instructor – I can envision a “Catch the Kevin Cash Way!” video, as I've never seen a backstop with better mechanics. It would sell better than a “Whiff on a Low Breaking Pitch the Kevin Cash Way!”, methinks.
Grade: Insufficient Data

Eric Crozier
.154 .290 .462
Fanned in nearly half of his September plate appearances. He looks like a decent athlete, and a good glove at first, but he's not good enough to replace Delgado. The Jays will need to get somebody.
Grade: D-

Carlos Delgado
.337 .445 .663
He will be missed, of course. For the last two months, he's been absolutely owning American League pitching. The only thing that cheers me up is that he appears to be looking to go to a contender – which suggests that he won't be in Baltimore next year. All I ask the Baseball Gods is that he wind up somewhere outside the AL East. Is that too much to ask?
Grade: A+

Chris Gomez
.250 .300 .393
Didn't hit as well this month as he has in other months. He's done everything he's been asked to do, but he can't be expected to hit much better than this in the future. If the Jays don't want him, somebody else likely will. Or he could retire and swap stories with Mike Bordick.
Grade: C-

Gabe Gross
.207 .324 .328
He's close to being a perfect duplicate of Bobby Kielty, except that he doesn't switch-hit. He has good plate discipline, not much power, a low batting average, and is absolutely, completely unmemorable. J.P. was quoted as saying that Sparky and Cat will platoon in left next year. Ouch; that'll make Gross choke on his morning cornflakes. If he batted right, he could platoon with Cat in left field, but he doesn't, so he won't.
Grade: D-

Eric Hinske
.235 .267 .341
Uh oh: he's stopped drawing walks, collecting only four free passes in 85 at-bats. My guess is that pitchers have figured out how to get him out, and he hasn't adjusted. He's going to have to do better than that, or Aaron Hill may very well run him over. Sometimes, effort isn't enough, and that's why life isn't fair.
Grade: D

Orlando Hudson
.250 .308 .427
Continued his good-month, bad-month pattern – his average and on-base percentage were down. He led the team in doubles in September with 9, and he did draw a few walks, so I don't think there's anything to worry about. Deserves a long-term contract, especially since he's entertaining to watch: there's got to be some reason to watch the 2005 Jays, and the O-Dog may well be it.
Grade: B-

Reed Johnson
.219 .254 .281
While Gabe Gross hasn't looked too good out there, he's looked better than Sparky. Johnson doesn't walk, so if he's not hitting for average, he has no offensive value. Had only two extra-base hits all month, and didn't steal a base. Was he hurt? Has value as a platoon LF with Cat, but there are teams that get 35 or 40 home runs out of their left fielders, and many of them are ahead of the Jays in the standings. Mind you, just about everybody is ahead of the Jays in the standings.
Grade: F

Frank Menechino
.220 .289 .390
Didn't have a particularly good month. He did do a little bit of everything, so I think it's just small sample size. Is now the number-one utility infielder. Can he play shortstop well enough to spell Adams? If he can, the Jays don't really need either Gomez or Woodward.
Grade: C-

Guillermo Quiroz
.205 .265 .250
He looks like a much better hitter than Cash, but he's still very raw. Has trouble blocking balls behind the plate. I don't think he's ready yet.
Grade: D-

Alexis Rios
.258 .327 .303
His doubles power has completely disappeared; J.P. suggested that he might be tired. Stole six bases in eight tries, and gunned down a succession of unwitting baserunners with strong, accurate throws from right field. He'll need to develop power in order to hold his job, or if the Jays want to escape the cellar next year. A good sign is that he drew nine walks this month.
Grade: C-

Vernon Wells
.291 .354 .573
If you're looking for light at the end of the tunnel: V-Dub appears to have his hitting shoes back on. He's even drawing more walks than he used to. And, of course, his defense is wonderful, as anybody who saw that catch will tell you. Best of all, he's going to be here next year. His walk totals should shoot up next year, as teams will start pitching around him.
Grade: A

Chris Woodward
.176 .263 .235
When John Gibbons became the manager, one of the first things he said was that Woodward was going to get more of an opportunity to play. This didn't last long. He's a bit of a tweener: he doesn't hit well enough to be an offensive reserve, and doesn't have a good enough glove to be a defensive reserve. Should catch on somewhere, as he can play all four infield positions, and can serve as an emergency outfielder. And he's capable of hitting, if someone can find the magic switch. I don't think it will be in Toronto, though.
Grade: F

Gregg Zaun
.186 .286 .349
Like many other non-marquee Jays, he didn't have a great month. But he did hit a couple of home runs, and his defense was still OK. He apparently wants to come back, and I think that the Jays will bring him back.
Grade: C-

Pitching
The team ERA for September was 5.43. This wasn't a very good team, was it?

Figures are IP/H/BB/SO/ERA for September (again, October is not included).

Miguel Batista
20 28 16 11 7.65
I don't like the idea of making Batista the closer. For one thing, starting pitchers are harder to find than relievers, and Batista was doing well as a starter before the roof fell in. And quality relievers usually have one overwhelming pitch and can throw strikes; Batista throws about a zillion pitches, and can't find the plate with both hands and a flashlight. Still, he did seem to do reasonably well in his save opportunities, so you never know.
Grade: D-

Dave Bush
29.1 26 9 12 4.60
There are red flags all over his record. One is that he surrendered six home runs in September. Another is that he struck out only twelve men in 29 1/3 September innings. Of course, he struck out nearly that many in one October start against the Yankees' backup nine. He's so poised that it's hard to believe that he's a rookie. Barring unforeseen miseries, he'll be given a starting slot for 2005.
Grade: B

Gus Chacin
14 8 3 6 2.57
It's only two starts, and his strikeout rate was low, but it's better to have two good starts than two bad ones. (You can call me Captain Obvious.) Probably has the inside track on a rotation slot for 2005. I think it's way cool that Chacin and Quiroz were teammates in Little League in Venezuela. If they both stick, somebody's going to make a TV docudrama about that.
Grade: B+

Vinnie Chulk
11 13 4 7 4.91
After some good weeks and some really bad weeks, the Vincinerator has stabilized as the pitcher he is: a replacement-level relief pitcher. He's not going to help the team much, but he's better than the Tams and Sturtzes of the world.
Grade: D-

Sean Douglass
12.2 14 7 10 6.39
Is the Wernher Von Braun of pitchers: when the rockets go up, who knows where they come down? Didn't get any starting chances, so I assume he's not in the Jays' plans for 2005.
Grade: F

Bob File
11.1 13 2 3 3.97
The good news: he threw strikes. The bad news: his K/IP rate suggests that he's doing it with mirrors. I suppose it doesn't matter how you get them out as long as you get them out.
Grade: C+

Jason Frasor
10.1 11 5 9 6.97
At some point in the summer, the clock struck twelve. The carriage turned back into a pumpkin, the coach horses turned back into mice, and Frasor turned back into a marginal pitcher. His K/IP ratio is still up, so he could bounce back. Pitchers are unpredictable, but he's slipped to number three on the bullpen depth chart, and could drop lower.
Grade: F

Kevin Frederick
8 9 4 7 6.75
At his best, he pitches about as well as Jason Frasor at his worst. I don't think he's going to help much. I suppose that somebody has to eat up innings in blowouts.
Grade: F

Ryan Glynn
20 19 8 14 4.05
A serviceable replacement-level pitcher. Has moved past Josh Towers on the depth chart. There's something to be said for ordinary competence, I suppose.
Grade: C+

Roy Halladay
7 8 3 4 5.14
The stats shown here don't include his October start, in which he became the Doc of old. Everybody breathed a sigh of relief. I see no reason why he won't return to form next year. Of course, I saw no reason why he wouldn't pitch at a Cy level this year. Moral: pitching is unpredictable.
Grade: See you next year

Brandon League
4.2 3 1 2 0.00
A rare and precious talent, as he throws in the upper nineties with movement. The temptation to install Hawaiian Punch-Out as the closer will likely prove irresistible. He needs to develop other pitches to be successful as a starter, and not everybody does that. I'd pay to watch him pitch.
Grade: A

Kerry Ligtenberg
3 3 0 2 3.00
Pitched a few relatively harmless innings in September, so perhaps he's out from under that big dark cloud. The official word on him is that he was pitching hurt this year, and that he'll bounce back next year. He'll have to, as he's signed for next year.
Grade: C

Ted Lilly
32.1 31 13 23 4.73
Gave up six home runs, which is not the way to win friends and influence people. That happens sometimes. K/IP still good, so I see this as a temporary speed bump. Lilly was the only pitcher on the Jays' staff who was effective all season long. Who would have predicted that?
Grade: C-

Justin Miller
18.1 25 9 9 8.84
Was extremely awful most of the month – then went out and two-hit the Anaheim Angels. Obviously, he is capable of becoming a dominant major league starter. But so are lots of pitchers. He's got a long way to go to get from here to there.
Grade: D-

Justin Speier
11.2 12 1 9 3.09
Did you know that the Jays collected ten saves in September? Me neither. Teams that don't score a lot of runs tend to pile up saves, as their wins tend to all be in close games. John Gibbons gets credit for straightening Speier out: he's been throwing strikes. Doesn't seem that comfortable in the closer spot, but a team needs somebody to get them out in the seventh and eighth too, and Speier looks like he can be that guy.
Grade: B+

Josh Towers
11.2 19 6 4 10.03
Was beaten like a gong in three September starts, which dropped him back down into the fifth starter zone. No one can say that he doesn't give it his all: on the final game of the season, he threw 128 pitches on two days' rest in an (unsuccessful) attempt to collect his tenth victory. I doubt that the Jays would have been willing to let one of their more valuable pitchers work himself this hard. I suspect that he won't be back.
Grade: F

Overall
You know the overall picture as well as I do. Yet again: blaah.
Blue Jays monthly report card for September 2004 | 21 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Ryan Lind - Tuesday, October 05 2004 @ 11:44 PM EDT (#28263) #
http://www.battersbox.ca/archives/00001044.shtml
I love reading these.

You don't think Towers will be back this year? For some reason, I never considered that. I always imagined the 2005 rotation as Doc/Lilly/Bush/Batista/Towers. I guess if JP can trade him for good value it would be worth it, but if Batista stays in the pen...

COMN for the Report card at the end of last year, which I found entertaining to read. Dave mentions he's worried about Halladay's arm (premonition?) Also, lots of good, fun Hinske bashing.
_Ron - Wednesday, October 06 2004 @ 12:47 AM EDT (#28264) #
Good job Dave.

I actually see Towers coming back.

With Doc,Lilly,and Bush being locks for the rotation and JP signing another starter, I see the 5th spot as Towers to lose.

I actually think Miller is done with the Jays.
_haddon - Wednesday, October 06 2004 @ 01:08 AM EDT (#28265) #
I still think its a total waste of resources not starting Batista.
If he blows up again, then let him close until he fixes himself up, but why not go for the innings. Him at his worst is still significantly better than Towers/Miller.
BTW, when will Miller get it together, he could be so much better than Bush, he has incredible life on his pitches, but hes spent this past year reminding me of....... all those nameless pitchers who disappeared off major league rosters after the label of "potential" got old.
_CaramonLS - Wednesday, October 06 2004 @ 06:22 AM EDT (#28266) #
Wow is that ever some low ratings all around... heh

haddon isn't that the story for every pitcher out there still toiling in the minors?

Look at Douglass... the guy has a wicked fastball that has some bigtime Colon type movement - yet has a 5 dollar tool box.

League has been the one bright spot this year, its absolutely amazing to watch the ball deaden (especially on the turf). It looks like the batters are trying to smash a shotput.
Dave Till - Wednesday, October 06 2004 @ 06:52 AM EDT (#28267) #
You don't think Towers will be back this year? For some reason, I never considered that.

I'm wondering whether he wants out of Toronto. I seem to recall reading that he was angry with the organization when he was sent back to the minors earlier this year. He'd do better in a ballpark that was harder to hit home runs out of.
Pistol - Wednesday, October 06 2004 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#28268) #
Has value as a platoon LF with Cat, but there are teams that get 35 or 40 home runs out of their left fielders, and many of them are ahead of the Jays in the standings.

FWIW, there were 6 LFs with 30+ homeruns this year, and only 10 LF with more than 20 (although 2 had 20 HRs).

It looks like the average LF is around a .825 OPS.

Cat has about an .820 OPS against RHP over the past few years. Reed Johnson is about the same against LHP in his 2 years. A healthy, strict platoon would give the Jays average production from LF.
_Jonathan - Wednesday, October 06 2004 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#28269) #
Croizer's first go-around doesn't add any confidence to my strengthened notion that JP can't win a trade.
_Jordan - Wednesday, October 06 2004 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#28270) #
I'd like to refer anyone who still thinks that Ricciardi and the Blue Jays get a "free ride" around here to Dave's entertaining and insightful column, as well as numerous other threads where various authors have been critical of player performance or management decisions. If we're nothing but JP apologists, we're doing a pretty poor job of it.

I agree with Dave that Towers won't be back; he's been dropping hints all year that he's essentially auditioning for another organization. Personally, I won't mind: aside from a good streak in mid-summer, he wasn't particularly effective, and his peripheral numbers indicate he was far more lucky than good. I was also less than impressed at his "gunning" for a 10th win, which seemed to motivate him more than, say, sweeping the Yankees or winning on Fan Appreciation Day.
_bird droppings - Wednesday, October 06 2004 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#28271) #
Average doesn't win pennants.
_Daryn - Wednesday, October 06 2004 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#28272) #
Didn't mention Peterson, Lopez, Kershner, Nakamura, and Glynn, which seem to me to be on the "outs"
nor
Rosario, McGowan, and Banks...

All reasonably covered in a Minor League Report Card.. It is possible to create a more permanent link where we can get the "latest" on the prospects and their chances??
_bird droppings - Wednesday, October 06 2004 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#28273) #
May I also point out that Towers was injured for almost half of September...
_Chuck Van Den C - Wednesday, October 06 2004 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#28274) #
P: A healthy, strict platoon would give the Jays average production from LF.

BD: Average doesn't win pennants.

Yes, but the Jays can most realistically be expected to improve incrementally, not to vault from 65 wins to 95. The number of holes in their lineup that they can plug with "average" players, rather than sink holes, will go a long way to improving the team.
_Daryn - Wednesday, October 06 2004 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#28275) #
Yes, but the Jays can most realistically be expected to improve incrementally,

I agree, the Jays aren't going to win any pennants next year, the only reason winning at all matters is ticket sales, its all about development....

Question, do all the players on the 40 Man roster count towards the "50 Mil Budget"?? or just the 25 Man?? or some mix??
Pistol - Wednesday, October 06 2004 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#28276) #
More or less the 25 man roster.
_Daryn - Wednesday, October 06 2004 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#28277) #
More or less the 25 man roster.

I suppose it depends on if they have a "2-way" contract etc??
_Daryn - Wednesday, October 06 2004 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#28278) #
I always imagined the 2005 rotation as Doc/Lilly/Bush/Batista/Towers.

Me too, or at least
Doc/Lilly/Miller/Bush/Towers if Batista closes...

On the Major league report card its suggested that Chacin will start, but my preference would be to season him a bit in AAA to make sure he doesn't implode under the bright lights.. .
_Daryn - Wednesday, October 06 2004 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#28279) #
On the Major league report card its suggested ...

Whups, this IS that page, I read this right after reading the Dunedin report. sorry, but the comment stands...
_Jordan - Wednesday, October 06 2004 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#28280) #
Adams: Displayed unexpected power; sometimes, this is because pitchers are constantly challenging newbies with fastballs.

Very true. An even better name for it would be Shane Spencer Syndrome. Adams has shown pitchers that busting him inside with fastballs is not a good idea, so they'll change tactics next April. Adams might well only hit 5-10 dingers all next year. Worth noting, however: Adams seemed to hit a lot of flyballs in Syracuse this season. Normally, I'd discourage speedy infielders from doing that, because they're likelier to beat out a grounder in the hole. But this team could use a few less groundball hitters, and moreover, as he gains experience and strength, Adams might just have more pop in his bat than expected.

Gross: He has good plate discipline, not much power, a low batting average, and is absolutely, completely unmemorable. J.P. was quoted as saying that Sparky and Cat will platoon in left next year.

I can't really argue that Gross is ready to hit big-league pitching yet. But he has a history of slow adjustments to each new level, and there's no tougher jump than from AAA to the majors. I also think that giving Catalanotto a glove and an outfield assignment automatically risks cutting his AB totals back to about 250. I wonder if Gross will start '05 in Syracuse and receive a promotion once his bat really heats up, moving into LF and pushing Cat to DH. But he's just as likely to be dealt this off-seasn as well. In either event, I certainly don't think we've seen everything Gross has to offer.

Bush: There are red flags all over his record. One is that he surrendered six home runs in September. Another is that he struck out only twelve men in 29 1/3 September innings. Of course, he struck out nearly that many in one October start against the Yankees' backup nine.

Wisely flagged. Sophomore slumps hit everyone, and Bush won't be an unfamiliar entity to opposing hitters next year. Still, a lot of his September struggles can reasonably be attributable to workload -- he threw 99 innings in Syracuse and 97 in the majors, giving him as many combined IP as Blue Jays team leaders Lilly and Batista. If 2005 expectations are kept in check -- reliable #3 or #4 starter -- he won't disappoint, and he may very well surprise.

Frasor: At some point in the summer, the clock struck twelve. The carriage turned back into a pumpkin, the coach horses turned back into mice, and Frasor turned back into a marginal pitcher. His K/IP ratio is still up, so he could bounce back.

As hard on Frasor as I've been the last few months, I actually agree that he can bounce back. Remember, he jumped from Double-A to the majors, and it's remarkable that he held his own for as long as he did. It was a baptism by fire, but his raw stuff is still very good, and he should have learned some valuable lessons about surviving in the majors. Unlike Chulk, I think Frasor does have upside and can contribute to next year's pen.

Halladay: The stats shown here don't include his October start, in which he became the Doc of old. Everybody breathed a sigh of relief. I see no reason why he won't return to form next year.

Ditto. Let's not underestimate how much a healthy Halladay can help the Jays in '05. He doesn't need to be in full Cy Young form to help this team recover the 2002-03 confidence that any Halladay start provides almost a presumption of victory. That's what an ace pitcher gives your club, and it's invaluable to get that morale boost 35 times a year.

Great work, Dave.
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 06 2004 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#28281) #
I agree mostly with Jordan's comments. But...

I can't really argue that Gross is ready to hit big-league pitching yet

I will make the argument. You can't judge much off 149 plate appearances. Gross hit for some pop, he drew some walks, but his BABIP was .253, so his batting average flirted with the Mendoza line. He hit .319 in New Haven in 2003 and .294 in Syracuse in 2004. I see no reason that he cannot hit .270-.280 in the bigs.

Unlike Chulk, I think Frasor does have upside and can contribute to next year's pen.

I think Chulk and Frasor are pretty similar. Chulk's got a 96 mph heater and his K rates are pretty good. Actually, Chulk's and Frasor's numbers are pretty similar, good K rates, too many walks. Both have pretty good control records in the minors, so if they can adapt to the bigs, there is little reason that either could not be a capable middle reliever.
_Pete Warren - Wednesday, October 06 2004 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#28282) #
Excellent Dave. Good work buddy

I would just like to see the Jays get another good starting pitcher. We know if guys that we already have hit up to potential (with a mashing 1st baseman signed), we have a good offence. With a 15 win guy like Pavano signed, we could outpitch almost every team.
Pistol - Thursday, October 07 2004 @ 08:23 AM EDT (#28283) #
More or less the 25 man roster.

I suppose it depends on if they have a "2-way" contract etc??


I was thinking more if a player goes on the DL and someone is called up you're paying more than the 25 man roster a major league salary.
Blue Jays monthly report card for September 2004 | 21 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.