Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Recent Draft History

Tomorrow is draft day, a day of hope and excitement in thirty major league cities. The truth however is that reaching the major leagues is a long shot for most players selected. Teams expect their first round pick will make an impact in the major leagues but after that they hope that one or two, of the other 49 players picked, make it. If three players from a draft become major league regulars that draft would be considered to be excellent. I thought we should take a quick look back at the Jays drafts under JP Ricciardi to see what expectations we should have for tomorrow.

In 2002 Russ Adams was JP's first number one selection and Adams did make it to the major leagues. The Jays number 2 pick, David Bush, is also a major leaguer but after that the pickings are slim. Adam Peterson, the number four pick, had a cup of coffee in the big leagues but there is no-one else who is expected to make an impact in the big leagues. Several players from the 2002 draft are on the Jays AA roster, Eric Arnold (#10), David Smith (#15), Eric Kratz (#29), Carlo Cota (#33), Brad Hassey (#19) and, until last week, Jordan DeJong (#18). Russell Savickas, one of the Jays few high school choices at number 9, is pitching well for Lansing.

In summary it looks like the Jays number 1 and 2 choices were good, with a few long-shots still left behind them.

In 2003 Aaron Hill was the Jays first choice. After Hill the Jays have a gaggle of pitchers who are prospects but not of the "can't-miss" variety. Josh Banks (#2), Shaun Marcum (#3), Jamie Vermilyea (#9) and Tom Mastny (#11) are all control type pitchers who are pitching in AAA with mixed success, Kurt Isenberg (#4) is in AA. The best hitters are Ryan Roberts (#18) who is in AAA, and Vito Chiaravalloti (#15) in AA.

This draft looks like an average draft, the number one pick makes it with some prospects behind him.

In 2004 the best player, so far, is the number 4 pick, Casey Janssen. Zack Jackson, taken in the first supplementary round, was just recalled by the Brewers. The Jays number one pick, David Purcey is still developing his game in AAA but he does have potential. The #2 pick, Curtis Thigpen, and the #3 pick, Adam Lind, are in AA two years after the draft which is promising, as is #9 pick Chip Cannon. Also in AA are pitchers Kyle Yates (#13), Michael MacDonald (#15) and Danny Hill (#3s). Jesse Litsch who was a junior college draft and follow selection at number 24 is in Dunedin and is still only 21 years old.

2004 looks like the best of the JP drafts, helped by extra picks in the first and third rounds.

Ricky Romero was the #1 pick in 2005 and is in Dunedin. Connor Falkenbach at pick #43 is in AA but the prospects for side-arming relievers are always questionable. Ryan Patterson (#4), Eric Fowler (#5), and Robert Ray (#7) are also playing in Dunedin. A few other 2005 players are doing well, Billy Carnline, Anthony Hatch and Sean Shoffit to name three.

One notable observation about the JP drafts is that the Jays have not got "lucky" with a lower pick. When a pick below number five succeeds it is a bonus as the other thirty teams passed that player up to five times. Most of the Jays success has been with their high picks, the Jays should be "due" for a pick in the teens to be a surprise major-leaguer.

I would grade the JP drafts as follows:

2004 - Janssen, Jackson and several prospects.

2002 - Adams and Bush are two major leaguers

2003 - Hill and possibles

2005 - Romero and Patterson are the two top prospects but neither is a sure bet at this stage

How would you rank those drafts?

Posted by Gerry on Monday, June 05 2006 @ 03:59 AM EDT.

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Sister - Monday, June 05 2006 @ 08:32 AM EDT (#148277) #

For me the rank would be 2004, 2002, 2005 and 2003. Obviously the ranking of these drafts will play out more fully given time, but I think the cocktail of prospects in the 2005 draft (in particular, Patterson, Romero, Ray, Fowler, Pettaway) bumps it ahead of the 2003 crop who, with the exception of Hill, may have collectively topped out at AAA (minus the cup of coffee experience of Macrum). Of course, in two years time I may say the same of the 2005 draft.

I'm still quite excited about the 2004 group going forward.

It is also important to look at all teams to see if the Jays success or failure in each draft is unique to them or if these drafts have collectively been weak (or strong).

Mike Green - Monday, June 05 2006 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#148279) #

It's really tough to tell. The only player who I am quite confident will be a valuable major leaguer 5 years from now is Aaron Hill. Others will be undoubtedly, but whether it will be Bush or Marcum or Ricky Romero, or Adams or Thigpen or Lind or Ryan Patterson, I really have no idea. So, as of now, I like the 2003 draft the best because there is one player who I am confident will have a signficant major league career, that being Hill.

To give a sense for it, take a look back at the 1999 draft 3 years on in 2002. The Jays that year drafted Alex Rios, Mike Snyder, Matt Ford, Brian Cardwell and Scott Porter with their first 5 picks. Later in the draft, they picked up D.J. Hanson, Derek Nunley, Reed Johnson, Brandon Lyon and Rob Cosby. By 2002, Lyon was a major leaguer and Rios, Ford, Hanson and Johnson were prospects of varying degrees of interest. Looked at from 2006, it seems quite possible that Rios will be a star for many years and that Johnson will be a valuable contributor for quite a few.

Mike Green - Monday, June 05 2006 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#148281) #

Baseball America reports that the Orioles are considering drafting Jeffrey Maier, the eager fan from the 1996 playoffs. Would drafting Steve Bartman help the Cubs emerge from their rut? Nah...

Pistol - Monday, June 05 2006 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#148282) #

Danny Almonte, of Little League infamy (he was 14 with an age limit of 12), is draft eligble as well.

Back to the topic, I think 2002 could end up being the worst of the bunch. It's certainly too early to tell with last year's class.

I predict next year's class will be the best one. It's supposedly a pretty good draft and the Jays are likely to pick up extra picks with all the free agents they have (assuming things don't change with a new CBA).

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