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So that was 2006, eh?


We will have post-mortems and second-guessing galore in the weeks and months to come. But first, there is urgent business. We must identify our post-season rooting interests. We have about a month of pretty intense baseball ahead of us.

So here's how I feel about the eight survivors, listed in rooting order:

8. New York Yankees - Be serious. I admit, it was pleasant to see all the gang at Bronx Banter practically cheering the Jays on this weekend. But we're not fooled - they just wanted to heap additional humiliation on the Red Sox. In the final analysis, cheering for the Yankees is like cheering for Microsoft (to update an ancient simile.) I may use Windows myself, I may find Apple people terminally irritating, but...

7. St. Louis Cardinals - You young fellas have no idea how irritating Tony LaRussa is after you've been watching him for about thirty years.

6. Los Angeles Dodgers - Dodgers? Yuck. But it would kind of cool for Grady Little to manage a world championship. It could happen - after all, Bob Brenly managed the 2001 champs, and he was the most incompetent game manager I have ever seen. (Which I think tells you just how unimportant that part of the manager's job truly is.)

5. Detroit Tigers - Yeah, yeah, yeah. Great story. I have not forgotten 1987. I will never forget 1987. The scars have not healed. This is as close to forgiveness as I can manage.

4. San Diego Padres - They and they alone of our contenders have never won the big prize, and they have some players I like quite a bit - Peavy, Giles, Greene. There's also a few old Blue Jays wandering around (Woody, Boomer), as well as the son of an all-time Jays fave; there's a couple of Hall-of-Famers who've never won a championship (Piazza, Hoffman.) I'd be cool with it.

3. Minnesota Twins
- They're a nice story, and it's simply impossible not to like Mauer and Morneau and Santana. It would be a nice way for Brad Radke to wrap up his fine career. They could rank higher, but... the Twins two most recent championships (1987 and 1991) are still fairly fresh in my mind, and both years I thought the local nine had a better team. And I'm still a little bitter about it.

2. Oakland Athletics - Mainly because Barry Zito is one of my favourite players, for the usual utterly irrational reasons, and this would be a fine, fine way for him to wrap up his days in green and gold. And as a bonus, Joe Morgan just might lose his mind. Completely.

1. New York Mets
- I have, oh, so many reasons. And some of them are even pretty good.

First of all, Carlos. He hit more than 300 homers for the Blue Jays and I calculate that I was in the house to see about 40 or 50 of them. In other words, of all the home runs I have seen in my life, Carlos Delgado hit more than anyone else I've seen. Which is kind of cool. Watching him play here for all these years is one of the highlights of my Life as a Fan, and he gave me so many, many wonderful and exciting moments of pure Baseball Pleasure. And he's one of the game's genuinely good people. So if there are still people out there who harbour some resentment or hold some grudge about his departure from Toronto... GROW UP, will ya? Now? Or at least save it for Shawn Green, who is far more deserving of your resentment.

Tom Glavine is obviously one of the great pitchers of our time, a no-doubt-about-it Hall of Famer. And he achieved immortality in my house long ago for his co-starring role in the great "Chicks dig the Long Ball" Nike spot. This year, I saw him pitch in person for the first time. He beat the Jays, but I forgive him because he was such a treat to watch. He basically threw one pitch all night - it was more or less a fastball. He just changed speeds on it and moved it around the strike zone, and had major league hitters off-balance - literally off-balance, hitting off the wrong foot with their hands out of position - all night long. Hundreds of guys out there can sting the radar guns. Practically no one can pitch like Tom Glavine.

El Duque. Come on. What's not to like?

Willie Randolph. He spent all these years working for Steinbrenner, playing in the Bronx Zoo with Reggie and Thurman and Sparky and Winfield. And all he ever did was behave like a gentleman and play really, really well - maybe not quite a Hall of Famer career as a player, but closer than most people give him credit for.

But finally, first and foremost, Julio needs a ring! On Saturday, Julio Franco matched his personal career high by driving in five runs. He's clearly going to keep playing until he a) gets his ring or b) gets 3000 hits. Whichever comes first. He's got 2566 hits now, but as a part-time player averaging about 50 hits a season, he'll have to keep playing another ten years to get there. But I'm not going to bet against him...

Moving on. Way back in March, when hope was springing eternal, it occurred to me to wonder just how often a team improved its Won-Lost record by 10 games or more. Such were my hopes, in the innocent days in March.

I did a little research and reported my findings.

My point of departure, of course, was the 2005 season. In 2005, three AL teams (Chicago, Cleveland, Toronto) had improved by 10 games, while one team (Texas) had declined by 10 games. In the NL, four teams (Arizona, Milwaukee, Washington, New York) had improved by 10 ten games, and three (Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago) had declined by 10 ten games.

And so, I issued my Universal Challenge to one and all - name two teams in each league that would improve by 10 games, and name one team in each league that would decline by 10 games.

By imperial fiat, I declared that the Florida Marlins were Ineligible in the Decline category. What did I know?

Only two AL teams improved by 10 games in 2006 - Detroit and Minnesota. Two teams declined by 10 games -Cleveland and Boston.

In the NL, two teams improved by 10 games - New York and Los Angeles. Four teams declined by 10 games - Washington, Atlanta, St. Louis and Chicago.

The complete list, for your perusal:

LADDERS

1. Detroit +24
2. Los Angeles +17
3. NY Mets +14
4. Minnesota +13
5. Colorado + 9
6. Seattle + 9
7. Toronto + 7
8. Cincinnati + 7
9. San Diego + 6
10. Kansas City + 6
11. Oakland + 5
12. NY Yankees + 2
13. Texas + 1
14. San Francisco + 1

STANDING STILL

15. Pittsburgh 0

SNAKES

16. Arizona - 1
17. Philadelphia - 3
18. Baltimore - 4
19. Florida - 5
20. Tampa Bay - 6
21. LA Angels - 6
22. Milwaukee - 6
23. Houston - 7
24. Chicago Sox - 9
25. Boston - 9
26. Washington -10
27. Atlanta -11
28. Chicago Cubs -13
29. Cleveland -15
30. St. Louis -17


That makes, by the way, consecutive seasons in which the Mets have improved by 10 more games, while the Cubs were declining by 10 more games. Say goodnight, Dusty.

As I was asking for four teams that would improve, you'll need a perfect score to get that part right. Did anyone come close?

No one named all four of this year's 10 game improvements. The best forecast was by our own Jonny German, who actually named three of them - he had the Tigers, Mets, and Dodgers. Three people went with the Mets and Dodgers (Our own Rob, WaveBurner, and CeeBee) and another three had the Tigers and Dodgers (Hollywood Hartman, Craig B, and me.)

As for the losers... who knew? None of us thought the Cubs would fall off another cliff. Only Anders saw the sag of St.Louis, and only JBrumfield had no faith in Cleveland. Only WaveBurner went on record saying that 2006 would be the year that the Braves actually did decline. There were some folks who hedged their bets by picking more than one team in the falling-off-the-cliff category. All this did was confuse me...

Really, nobody really knows anything. Yogi Berra, as always, had it right:

In baseball, you don't know nothing.

For somewhere in the archives, I know not where, is that detailed pre-season poll, the one where I announce that Brett Myers will win the 2006 NL Cy Young Award. Hey, you have to give me this - I'm improving. The year before, I voted for Oliver Perez...

Anyway. Bring on the post-season. And say it with me, people:

JULIO NEEDS A RING!


TDIB Monday: Here We Go | 65 comments | Create New Account
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Chuck - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 07:08 AM EDT (#156329) #
Mets shortstop, Jose Reyes, was born in 1983. Indians shortstop Julio Franco started his big league career in 1983 (after a cup of coffee in 1982). You suppose Reyes even believes it when Franco tells him he used to be a shortstop?
Pepper Moffatt - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 08:06 AM EDT (#156331) #
"Mets shortstop, Jose Reyes, was born in 1983. Indians shortstop Julio Franco started his big league career in 1983 (after a cup of coffee in 1982). You suppose Reyes even believes it when Franco tells him he used to be a shortstop?"

Heh.. I can just picture Julio now.. "Laugh all you want son, but you'll be lucky to be playing this well in 2031..."
Matt S - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#156337) #

I really don't have a rooting interest this year, so I'm cheering for the Cardinals.  If they (improbably) win the World Series this year, the NL Central will be the sixth different division in six years to produce a champion.  I'm sure that's been mentioned before by people who think about baseball a good deal more than I do, but it just occurred to me a few days ago.   I can't imagine such a thing happening ever again as long as the current divisions are in place.  A rather cold, abstract thing to be rooting for in the playoffs, but go Cards!

Paul D - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#156338) #
So if there are still people out there who harbour some resentment or hold some grudge about his departure from Toronto... GROW UP, will ya? Now? Or at least save it for Shawn Green, who is far more deserving of your resentment.

Just to be clear, if we're not happy that Delgado left the Jays, and wouldn't consider waiving his no trade clause, we need to grow up. But holding a grudge against the Detroit Tigers, 19 years after they... what, won all their games?  The horror!  Is acceptable?

(Note:  I hold grudges against neither Delgado or Detroit, but I do think you're being a wee bit hypocritical here)
Pepper Moffatt - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#156339) #
Delgado didn't leave the Jays.  The Jays left him.
Chuck - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#156340) #
Just some random end of the year stuff...

Jayson Stark can always be counted on for a few things, not the least of which is his ignominious status as perhaps the last free writer at ESPN. Overly long articles (both he and JK Rowling could use a good editor). Dubious analytical skills (Shannon Stewart for MVP?). And basically, the reminder that the only difference between most sportswriters and the rest of us is that they had Providence on their side when jobs were being handed out (he and Vic Rauter, it seems, were sprinkled with the same fairy dust).

What would you think if your left fielder posted these numbers: 258/388/502, 462 AB, 29 HR, 95 RBI?

If you're Stark, you give this player honourable mention for NL LVP (least valuable player -- ho, ho!).

HoJu - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#156343) #
Chuck - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#156344) #
I hold grudges against neither Delgado or Detroit, but I do think you're being a wee bit hypocritical here

I am not presuming to answer for Magpie her, but you're talking apples and oranges here.

Any grudge against Detroit is a healthy, rivalry-based grudge based on the Jays' history with them in the late 80's. This would be a tepid version of a Red Sox fan's grudge against the Yankees for similar, if more prounounced, reasons.

Any grudge against Delgado would be personal and entirely misguided. A player performs well, honours his contract and then leaves when he is offered a contract ridiculously below market value. Oh, and he also refuses to give up a no-trade clause, as if the very act of wanting to stay with your team is somehow an act of treason.

Apples and oranges.
Ryan Day - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#156346) #
 I don't understand how Joe Mauer seems to be getting completely left out of the AL MVP discussions: Led the Majors in Batting Average, third in the AL in OBP, seventh in the AL in OPS behind a bunch of guys who don't play one of the most demanding positions on the diamond. The only areas he significantly trails Jeter are games played and stolen bases, both of which are largely attributed to him being, you know, a catcher. And don't get me wrong, I like Justin Morneau... but how many of those spiffy RBIs came were provided by Mauer's .429 OBP?
Ryan Day - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#156347) #
I think any historical grudges against Detroit have to be balanced out by the fact they've been really, really, really awful for nearly two decades. Don't get me wrong, I really loathed them in the 80s, but for most of the 90s and 00's, it was just pity. Plus mockery.
daryn - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#156351) #

Not sure where to post this,
sorry if its off topic

Is there a discussion in here, or could there be, where we can follow who is signed, and who is arbitration eligilbe/super 2's and stuff like that?

I have my own list and it looks like a busy off-season

I have we need to sign or replace,
Lily, Speier, Zaun, Phillips, Cat,

Arbitration for
Tallet, Fraser, Downs, Walker, Overbay, MacDonald, Johnson

Also, I have the following guys in the last year of a deal in 2007, possibly looking for an extension
Wells, Molina (option for 2007)

And guys who will be Aribration eligble AFTER 2007 (again, possible extension)
Adams, Rios, Chacin, League, Towers,

That leaves 6 guys that JP doesn't have to have meetings with in the next 12 months
Taubenheim, Accardo, Hill, are all Jays property
and Glaus, Doc and BJ are signed for a few years.

Bruce Wrigley - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#156352) #
 I don't understand how Joe Mauer seems to be getting completely left out of the AL MVP discussions: Led the Majors in Batting Average, third in the AL in OBP, seventh in the AL in OPS behind a bunch of guys who don't play one of the most demanding positions on the diamond. The only areas he significantly trails Jeter are games played and stolen bases, both of which are largely attributed to him being, you know, a catcher. And don't get me wrong, I like Justin Morneau... but how many of those spiffy RBIs came were provided by Mauer's .429 OBP?
 
I like Mauer, and I think he's a good candidate.  I am sure he will get a lot of votes.  That said, I think one of the reasons that Jeter seems to be the favorite is that their level of offensive production is different.  Using Runs Created as a basic starting point, Jeter created 135 runs this season while Mauer created 104.  Jeter is #1 in the AL in that measure; Mauer is #20.  Now certainly, the twentieth-most productive offensive player in the AL can be good enough to deserve the MVP; but it is hard (definitely not impossible) to make arguments for him ahead of all 20.
 
Mauer is a good MVP candidate, but he drove in 84 runs and scored 86.  Justin Morneau scored 97 runs and drove in 130.  Derek Jeter scored 118 runs and drove in 97.  That's a lot of runs that Morneau was involved in that Mauer wasn't; same for Jeter, and a good reason why I'd be a little suspicious of Mauer as the MVP.  No AL position player MVP has driven in and scored as few as 170 runs and won the MVP since Elston Howard in 1963, and Howard had a better offensive year than Mauer did.
Magpie - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#156354) #
I do think you're being a wee bit hypocritical

Meh. Consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.

Do I contradict myself? Very well, I contradict myself. I am large. I contain multitudes. I am, quite literally, full of it.
Magpie - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#156355) #
not true

I ntoiced, Geoff, and well done - but you had two NL teams, which I regarded as suspicious. Or something.

And threw out the ballot!
Mick Doherty - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#156358) #

Do I contradict myself? Very well, I contradict myself.

Indeed you do, all the time.
Except when you don't.

#2JBrumfield - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#156359) #

and only JBrumfield had no faith in Cleveland.

I actually predicted something right?  Now I don't feel nearly as bad as saying both the Pirates and Brewers would finish over .500. :)

My order of preference of winning the World Series...

8.  Yankees - wish they could have more years like 1990. 

7.  Dodgers - two words - Rick Monday.  Only cheered for them in '88 because of Alfredo Griffin.

6.  Tigers - if it weren't for the Wild Card, they'd really know how Jays fans felt in 1987.  This'll have to do.  I knew my Lions were doomed to another come from ahead loss after the Tigers blew it against the Royals.  I think the Ford Field karma made its way next door. 

5.  Twins - deserve all the credit in the world for winning the AL Central.  I'd rate them higher but they've won two titles in recent memory.  They may be the team with the best shot to take out the Yankees.

4.  A's - it'd be nice to see them win a round for a change.

3.  Mets - Shawn Green and the fact I generally hate all New York teams are the two big reasons I wouldn't mind seeing them fall flat on their faces but Carlos Delgado and Chris Woodward tip the scales for me.

2.  Cardinals - at the very least, the Astros, and more importantly, the Rocket are not going to the post-season.

1.  Padres - Even though David Wells is on this team, at least there's Woody Williams.  I still fondly recall his no hit bid against Tampa Bay, when he went 7 plus innings and we gave him up for Joey Hamilton?  Also, Trevor Hoffman deserves a ring. 

 

John Northey - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#156361) #
To me it goes...
8: Yankees - will anyone pick them any slot but here or #1?
7: Cardinals - Can't stand TLR and feel he should always be below Cito for WS wins
6: Mets - just because they are in NY
5: Tigers - I was around for '87 - grrrrr
4: Dodgers - big market, doesn't really need it, no strong feelings one way or the other
3: Twins - they have 2 titles, that is enough until the Jays get a 3rd
2: San Diego - just because they haven't won yet
1: Oakland - Beane needs a WS to make the Joe Morgan's of the world go nuts and to make sure we have lots of fun articles and a new book (Moneyball 2) to read all winter long.
Bruce Wrigley - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#156366) #
Division       Won  Lost  Percent  Games Behind
 
AL West        340   308    .525      --
AL Central     421   389    .520      --
NL East        410   400    .506      11
NL West        404   405    .499      16.5
AL East        401   409    .495      20
NL Central     453   518    .467      48.5
 
I think this means that Blue Jays fans have to stop complaining about the AL East, forever.  (The ALE isn't the fifth-strongest division, but the third... nevertheless, it's easier than the West or Central).
Jonny German - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#156367) #
I'm quite happy with this year's playoff teams - the Yankees are the only team I'm actively cheering against, while there are 4 possible champs that I can root for: Oakland, Detroit, Minnesota, and San Diego.
 
By contrast, last year's postseason featured the Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, Astros, and Braves for me to boo.
Chuck - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#156374) #
I can't prove this, but it seems to me that looking at a division's aggregate W-L record may not be the best way to guage the strength of that division, at least for practical purposes.

Were NY and Boston the best two teams in the AL, say with 100 and 98 wins, it wouldn't really matter if Baltimore and TB each had 40-122 records, thereby rendering the division's aggregate W-L record poor. The Jays' chances would be slim in the East because of the strength of the top two teams.

If the East were made up of only 4 teams (excluding the Jays) and the Jays had the chance to join either the East or the West, which division would they be better off joining? I would argue that the West would be more winnable, despite its better aggregate W-L record.

truefan - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#156376) #

Good analysis, particularly about Delgado being someone Toronto can cheer for.

OK, a story on that.  It was the Saturday of the series the Mets were in town in June this past year -- I believe the first visit to Toronto for Delgado as a Met.  There were lots of Mets fans at the game, in our section.

Delgado comes to the plate, perhaps to start off the 2nd, and I join the sustained applause for Delgado as he was announced. 

To my immediate left is a six-foot-four moron, (somewhat taller than me and my 11 year old daughter) an early-Travolta lookalike in white leather shoes, who looks at me savagely as i sit down and asks: "Are you a Mets' fan?"

There were a few options than ran through the mind, including whether my daughter would appreciate waiting for me subsequently at the Emergency Ward.  However, i was able to deliver a line that kept him quiet, and had even him nodding a little: 

'No, I'm a Jays fan with a memory.'

Magpie - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#156403) #
I must also admit - my rooting order is how I feel about these teams before the action begins. Once I actually start watching the games, anything can happen. I watch the players, I watch the games... stuff happens.

It's still unlikely that I'll be cheering for the Yankees, but really, anything is possible.

Magpie - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#156423) #
Oh, good ones! I'll play:

in terms of probability?


1. Julio Franco is still playing in 2010.
2. The Royals make the playoffs before 2010.
3. The A's win two WS before 2010.
4. Carlos Delgado returns to DH for Jays before 2010.
5. A-rod is playing for the Royals in 2010.
6. Magpie becomes a die-hard Yankees fan before 2010.
King Ryan - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#156427) #
I'm not really rooting for any teams (they all suck,) but I am rooting for certain events.

For example, I hope Carlos Delgado hits a game-winning homerun.   I hope A-Rod has a great playoffs.  I hope Derek Jeter has a terrible playoffs and pulls a Buckner that costs the Yankees game seven.  I hope the A's actually win a series.  I hope Tim McCarver loses his voice.  And so forth.
StephenT - Monday, October 02 2006 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#156428) #
Top A.L. Hitters by EqA (minimum 359 plate appearances):
                         EqA   BA  OBP  SLG  R27   EqR   R RBI HR  SB CS   PA
   Travis Hafner CLE    .356 .308 .439 .659  9.72  121 100 117 42   0  0  563
   Manny Ramirez BOS    .334 .321 .439 .619  9.38  101  79 102 35   0  1  558
     David Ortiz BOS    .326 .287 .413 .636  8.81  123 115 137 54   1  0  686
       Jim Thome CHW    .325 .288 .416 .598  8.51  107 108 109 42   0  0  610
    Jason Giambi NYY    .319 .253 .413 .558  7.97   97  92 113 37   2  0  579
    Jermaine Dye CHW    .318 .315 .385 .622  8.08  108 103 120 44   7  3  611
       Joe Mauer MIN    .314 .347 .429 .507  7.80   96  86  84 13   8  3  608
     V. Guerrero LAA    .310 .329 .382 .552  7.21  112  92 116 33  15  5  665
  Grady Sizemore CLE    .309 .290 .375 .533  6.84  127 134  76 28  22  6  750
     Derek Jeter NYY    .309 .343 .417 .483  7.35  112 118  97 14  34  5  708
  Carlos Guillen DET    .308 .320 .400 .519  7.18  101 100  85 19  20  9  622
  Alex Rodriguez NYY    .304 .290 .392 .523  7.08  107 113 121 35  15  4  674
    Paul Konerko CHW    .304 .313 .381 .551  7.22  101  97 113 35   1  0  643
  Justin Morneau MIN    .303 .321 .375 .559  7.16  104  97 130 34   3  3  661
               . . .
    Vernon Wells TOR    .293 .303 .357 .542  6.66  102  91 106 32  17  4  677

(Glossary here ).

I'd be okay with Jeter or Mauer as MVP.

Before this year, Wells' career EqA was just .273.

danjulien - Tuesday, October 03 2006 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#156435) #
ESPN.Com has some comments from J.P. regarding off-season plans..
About Wells:  "I can tell you this: If it is a Beltran type deal then it's something we wouldn't be able to handle."
About Lilly:  "We have a number that we feel comfortable that we would go after [pitcher] Ted [Lilly] with. But if somebody goes out and just blows that number out of the water we're obviously not going to get involved."
About Glaus:  "Every player gets to a point in their career where they decide I'd better start working out a little harder and I think Troy is at that point now"  WOW!
About Molina/Zaun:  He can only bring one back and has rejected Molina's option for next year.

And finally "I'm not going to sit here and tell you that we popped champagne for finishing in second place, but it's something we haven't done here in a long time. We finished ahead of the Red Sox. It's just a nice stepping stone. I know the guys were really driven to get to that spot. We're closer to where we think we can be."
Here's the full article J.P. Article

VBF - Tuesday, October 03 2006 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#156436) #

"I'm not going to sit here and tell you that we popped champagne for finishing in second place"

Even though they did:

The word is that Troy Glaus sat and watched the end of the Orioles-Red Sox game, and when Boston lost, he and some of Toronto's trainers popped open a bottle of champagne to honor the Jays' second-place finish

From www.mlbastian.mlblogs.com. Hehehe.....

 

Craig B - Tuesday, October 03 2006 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#156439) #
Can I play too!?

1. The Royals make the playoffs before 2010. 2. Julio Franco is still playing in 2010. 3. The A's win two WS before 2010.
4. Carlos Delgado returns to DH for Jays before 2010. 5. A-rod is playing for the Royals in 2010. 6. Magpie becomes a die-hard Yankees fan before 2010.
I have faith in you, Mags.
Mike D - Tuesday, October 03 2006 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#156442) #

I agree with Craig B's rankings, except I'd swap Franco and Delgado.  Then again, Julio has proven me wrong before...

I'm cheering for the Twins because it would be absurd for a National League team to win the Series this year.  Some pretty crummy baseball was played in the 2006 Senior Circuit.

Craig B - Tuesday, October 03 2006 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#156447) #

I think a tthis point we have to acknowledge that Franco is sui generis; rules that would apply to other players do not fit him terribly well.  As he approaches and passes the age of 50, I think there will be tremendous pressure for him to keep playing as long as he is able.

Julio can still hit righthanders and lefthanders when coming off the bench.  That's the toughest job to fill in the major leagues (other than the true swingman); there are few actual lefthanded pinch-hit specialists and Franco (despite being a righty himself) hit over .300 against righties with an OPS nearly 800 in a tough park for hitters.  He also is still a good athlete by the standards of first basemen, runs extremely well, and can fill in at third in a pinch.  His mix of skills is considerable; every National League team needs at least one pure pinch hitter.

Franco also continues to excel in the tough situations a pinch-hitter has to work in; runners on third with less than two out, late in close games, getting on base early in the inning.  He's extremely consistent, indicating that he puts that mix of skills to good use and works hard.  He provides leadership, toughness, inspiration and coaching.  If your manager or GM doesn't have a settled bench but can't find a use for Julio Franco, he's not much of a manager.

Gitz - Tuesday, October 03 2006 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#156489) #
At the risk of boasting -- ok, I'm boasting -- I'd like to point out that for the second straight season I predicted exactly how many games the A's would win (88 in 2005, 93 in 2006). So does this mean anything? Not one. But it's fun to be right for a change, even if it was essentially (read: entirely) guess work.

Maybe this will be the year they get out of the first round -- ironically the year they probably have the weakest overall team to do so. It'll be fun, that's for sure, and they're off to a good start so far. Yay!

Mike Green - Tuesday, October 03 2006 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#156494) #
It happens sometimes.  The Jays clubs of the early 90s were not in my view as strong as the ones of the mid-late 80s, but they won.  For the As to defeat the Yankees in the ALCS and to go on to win the World Series this year would be poetic justice.
StephenT - Tuesday, October 03 2006 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#156495) #

By my count, the higher seed team has won only 15 of the 32 Division Series since the 2-2-1 format was introduced in 1998:

2-2-1 higher seed won:
'98 ALDS (3-1):  CLE vs. BOS*
'98 ALDS (3-0):  NYY vs. TEX
'98 NLDS (3-0):  ATL vs. CHC* 
'99 ALDS (3-0):  NYY vs. TEX
'99 NLDS (3-1):  ATL vs. HOU
'00 NLDS (3-0):  STL vs. ATL
'01 ALDS (3-2):  SEA vs. CLE
'01 ALDS (3-2):  NYY vs. OAK*
'01 NLDS (3-2):  ARI vs. STL*
'03 ALDS (3-1):  NYY vs. MIN
'04 ALDS (3-1):  NYY vs. MIN
'04 NLDS (3-1):  STL vs. LAD
'05 ALDS (3-0):  CHW vs. BOS*
'05 ALDS (3-2):  LAA vs. NYY
'05 NLDS (3-0):  STL vs. SDP

2-2-1: higher seed lost:
'98 NLDS (3-1):  SDP vs. HOU 
'99 ALDS (3-2):  BOS* vs. CLE
'99 NLDS (3-1):  NYM* vs. ARI
'00 ALDS (3-2):  NYY vs. OAK
'00 ALDS (3-0):  SEA* vs. CHW
'00 NLDS (3-1):  NYM* vs. SFG
'01 NLDS (3-0):  ATL vs. HOU
'02 ALDS (3-1):  ANA* vs. NYY
'02 ALDS (3-2):  MIN vs. OAK
'02 NLDS (3-2):  SFG* vs. ATL
'02 NLDS (3-0):  STL vs. ARI 
'03 ALDS (3-2):  BOS* vs. OAK
'03 NLDS (3-1):  FLA* vs. SFG
'03 NLDS (3-2):  CHC vs. ATL 
'04 ALDS (3-0):  BOS* vs. ANA
'04 NLDS (3-2):  HOU* vs. ATL 
'05 NLDS (3-1):  HOU* vs. ATL

(*) indicates wildcard team,  (series winner is listed first)

Under the 2-3 format, the higher seed team won just 6 of the 12 Division Series:

2-3 higher seed won:
'95 ALDS (3-2):  SEA vs. NYY*
'95 NLDS (3-1):  ATL vs. COL*
'95 NLDS (3-0):  CIN vs. LAD
'96 NLDS (3-0):  ATL vs. LAD*
'97 ALDS (3-2):  CLE vs. NYY*
'97 ALDS (3-1):  BAL vs. SEA

2-3 higher seed lost:
'95 ALDS (3-0):  CLE vs. BOS
'96 ALDS (3-1):  BAL* vs. CLE
'96 ALDS (3-1):  NYY vs. TEX
'96 NLDS (3-0):  STL vs. SDP
'97 NLDS (3-0):  FLA* vs. SFG
'97 NLDS (3-0):  ATL vs. HOU 

Wildcard teams have won 11 of 16 Division Series under the 2-2-1 format, but won just 2 of 6 under the 2-3 format.

When 2 division-winners have played, the higher seed has won 10 of 16 under the 2-2-1 format, but won just 2 of 6 under the 2-3 format.

My intuition is that the higher seed should prefer the 2-3 format to the 2-2-1 format, but there isn't enough data to prove it one way or another yet.

Data derived from http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/

 

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