Obviously building through draft picks is not part of a "win-now" strategy, but letting Speier go is a good move. 4 years at 5 per for a 33 year old reliever is not something I'd want to be part of. In addition, our cupboard is looking pretty bare these days, and a few extra draft picks (do we still get one if Cat leaves?) could really help stabilize the team in the long term.

We would only get picks for Cat if we offer arbitration, which as with Molina would be highly risky. Thank goodness for Speier. We need all the picks we can get: got to keep re-stocking the cupboard and we probably stand to lose some picks with the upcoming signings.

When was the last time the Angels have gone outside the organization to spend big bucks on a relief pitcher? For years, the organization has enjoyed terrific bullpen production on the cheap, either developing their own relievers or resurrecting flagging careers (Donnelly, Weber, etc.)

While the Jays are trying to win now, it's imperative to have a good farm system on top of that. The Jays are lacking in that area, so adding picks is never a bad thing. I don't know what Type A free agents the Jays are going to sign this off-season, if any, but it's good to have a back-up plan in case the team does lose its first pick.

Congrats to Speier. He had three superb years for the Blue Jays on a very reasonable contract, and now he gets rewarded for it. Probably Ricciardi's 2nd best trade ever behind Kielty/Lilly.

I'm pretty sure that, historically, Speier fits into a category of player that presents considerable risk over an extended period. Considering his age and recent workload, I don't think I'd be too confident of getting much from him in 2009. However, he's been a fine reliever with some closer experience and the Jays will probably have days in '07 when they wish he was available out of the pen.

 Good luck to Chris's kid.

Speier recieved a 4yr/18 million contract from the Angels. I thought he would sign for 5-6 million a season. The trio of K-Rod/Shields/Speier will be deadly.

I really enjoyed watching Speier pitch for the Jays. Too bad the Jays never game him a long look at the closer position. I loved the intensity he brought to the mound.
I wish Justin nothing but the best.

One potential bargain in the FA market for relievers this winter is Eric Gagne. He has been injured the last couple years and has a giant "BUYERS BEWARE" sticker glued to his arm, which significantly lowers his market value. On the flip side, he is only 31 and when he has pitched, he has been successful. If his arm holds up, he can be a bargain for someone looking for a closer, or preferably, be the Jays' set-up man/right handed relief Ace.

However, with the market for relievers so ridiculous thus far this offseason, I would not be surprise to see someone guarantee him a couple mil just for sh*** and giggles. What do you think he is worth in the open market these days? A pitcher like this would probably cost under $1mil guaranteed with incentives normally, but with this market, you never know.

Like I said a few days ago, "Alfonso Soriano's eventual contract is going to blow people away." Eight years at $135M? Carlos Beltran's deal with the Mets suddenly looks like something approaching a bargain.

Good luck to Speier except when he pitches against Toronto, and thanks to the Angels for the draft pick.

The Dallas Morning news is reporting the Rangers have signed the Cat to a 3yr deal worth at least 13 million (with a club option for a 4th year). This will probably go down as one of the best signings of the off-season. I feel like Cat is under-valued because he doesn't hit for a lot of power. He's a professional hitter that will age well. I haven't seen the raw data, but according to my eyes, I thought his D improved last season. He's a class act and I wish him nothing but the best in Texas.

Soriano for 8 years?  Maybe the Cubs still have him as 28, instead of turning 31 just after New Year's.  There is risk and then there is lunacy, and this deal falls squarely in the latter category.

Free agents do have a powerful incentive to go to the National League.  There's a similar amount of money around, and the quality of the baseball is lower so that it's easier to get a bigger chunk of the money. 

I would think that the news of Cat signing elsewhere would put the lid on any Wells trades at least for the time being.  With Cat officially gone the Jays can't really afford to trade Wells unless they pick up another OF somewhere in the trade or as a free agent, and if they were going to do that then they might as well have re-signed Catalanatto. 

One of the reasons for the idea of trading Wells in the first place was that from a positional standpoint they could afford to lose him with Cat, Johnson, Rios, and Lind around.  Now with Cat gone, trading Wells would leave them awfully shorthanded.  Personally I think them letting Cat go shows that they are committed to not trading Wells, extension or no, at least until June.

It wouldn't shock me if JP waited out the market on Lugo -- he did essentially the same thing last year and came away with a bargain in Bengie Molina, who had priced himself out of the market early. At this point, it's hard to see anyone pricing himself out of a market this nutty, but youneverknow. I do find it interesting that Lugo's not a Red Sox yet. I'm sure JP is prepared to start 2007 with Hill at SS, but I'm equally sure he'd grab Lugo if the price were right.

Rumour has it that the Rockies are willing to make Jason Jennings available. He's your prototypical #3 starter, and his lifetime 1.52 GB/FB ratio would make him a great fit at the RC (assuming the infield defence is suitably tightened). Colorado's looking for young outfield help, and the report I read had them looking at Lastings Milledge. If that's the case, then the Blue Jay equivalent would be Alex Rios, and that's a non-starter. Probably there's no match, but it'd be great if something could be worked out.

The draft picks that are the price of losing Cat and Speier are very valuable.  2007 looks to be a pretty good and deep draft, and the Jays will have plenty of picks in the first 3 rounds.  With the redefinition of a type A free agent in the new CBA (which applies beginning next year), the Jays have caught a break with these two, who are barely type As. 

Lilly and Zaun are type Bs, so the dynamic is slightly different.

I'm not sure Cat has any impact on Wells.  The Jays could easily trade Wells and then go with Rios, Lind and Johnson in the OF and find a 4th OF (preferably LH).

That isn't "easy" at all, Pistol, and I really have to disagree.  There is absolutely no plausible backup anywhere in the system if you count on Lind/Rios/Johnson/Thomas to play every single day.  Leaving aside the injuries, which will very likely affect Thomas and at least one of the others, who's going to replace Lind defensively?  Or give Johnson a break, which he occasionally requires?  Or hits for Lind against lefties?  Or pinch-runs for Thomas?  Etc., etc. 

I am very wary of the "just get another OF" plan.  A free agent OF -- and remember, there is nobody to call up -- will be far worse than Wells, more expensive than Wells, or very possibly both.

On top of all that, there are a few pitchers already on hand in the system that at least conceivably be average or a bit above average as starters this year.  Wrecking the lineup to acquire a pitcher with a somewhat better shot of doing that does not make short-term sense.  Especially not when you're eager to trade him to a team that suddenly becomes a near-lock to post a better AL record and make Wild Card contention that much less realistic.

Pistol spoke of acquiring a 4th outfielder if Wells was traded. Mike D's point is important, though.  A trade of Wells would involve a loss in the field, a loss on offence and a loss of depth.  You have to take into account all three of these things when weighing whether the return is worth the price.

I agree with Pistol, to an extent.  I don't think it would be "easy" to replace Well's production, but Rios, Johnson and Lind could make up the outfield with the help of a 4th outfielder.

Right now, I'm a fan of keeping Wells under his current contract. 

That said, his value at 5.6 million is about to shoot through the roof.
Everyone seems to think GM's are going bananas with free agent signings, but I would be surprised if the Jays don't get some really good offers for Wells, given his age, contract and defence, which are all more attractive than Soriano's.

Hard to say that a team like the Angels might not offer a package of pitching, catcher/shortstop and a prospect.  Or even give in and eventually offer Jered Weaver, who (I believe?) the Jays would have under control for a number of years.
Given his home/road splits, I'm not entirely sold on Wells, as I think the RC has inflated his stats (making him more replaceable than some might think).  I think if the right offer is made, JP would be ready to pull the trigger, given that Wells' value has probably peaked, or will in the next month.

I'll admit that I didn't look that hard for the 'other OF', but I'm assuming there's a 4th OF option that the Jays could acquire without too much trouble (and more likely through trade than FA).  And while this OF will be much worse than Wells a trade of Wells will certainly bring back something useful - there's still pretty big holes at C and MI in addition to SP.

The Jays are either going to re-sign Wells (which isn't sounding too likely if JP sticks to his guns about not offering Beltran money), decide he's too expensive and trade him this offseason, or hold onto to him and hope for the best in 07.

I don't think the Jays would hold onto Wells only because they didn't have a 4th OF option.

I do agree with Mike that the Jays depth is better in pitching than it is with position players.  If the Jays decided to go with Julio Lugo in lieu of the Lilly/Padilla/Meche tier of starting pitchers available I wouldn't object.

On ESPN Insider, Buster Olney described yesterday as a "great day for the Blue Jays," calling it "incredible" that Toronto netted four first-round/sandwich picks for two "solid but low-impact" players. 

If there was anytime to trade Wells, this is the off-season to do it. His value has taken a huge spike because:
A) His production last season.
B) The salaries for upper tier OF's has gone through the roof
C) He's only going to make 5.6 million next season

The current FA class is also full of 2nd/3rd tier OF's that the Jays could most likely sign for a reasonable price to join Johnson and Rios in the OF.

Nixon, Stairs, Stewart, Payton, Lawton, Gonzo, Pierre, Huff, Loften, Cruz Jr, Floyd, Dellucc, Burnitz, Roberts, Wilson, and Guillen are still up for grabs.

Blair has reported Floyd has interest in joining the Jays. If Wells is dealt, I would like to see the Jays make a run at Floyd. If that doesn't pan out than the Jays should go after Nixon. I can't see either player breaking the bank.

Frankly, I'm not sure Wells' 2007 salary makes him any more desirable to any team other than the Jays right now (unless the Royals see themselves making a one-year run). It may make a slight difference in the offers the Jays receive because their own stance can be that they don't NEED to trade him, but the teams looking to trade for him would probably be looking to ink him to an extension anyway and would not have been any less interested in an all-star CF had he been slated to make twice that amount next year.


I do think it dramatically improves his value at the deadline, where teams looking for a rental can typically either force the other team to eat some salary  or offer 60 cents on the dollar in prospects.

Ron, that's an utterly uninspiring list.  There is but one player that is at least average in health, offence and defence, and that's Jay Payton (and that might be stretching it -- 10 HR and 22 walks over 142 games).  He won't deliver half the production of Wells and will probably cost more, since he made $4 million last year and had a snappy .296 batting average.

Cliff Floyd was limited to 97 games due to injury, appears to be declining, can't hit lefties at all and can't field anymore.  He made over $6.6 million last year.

Trot Nixon was limited to 114 games due to injury, appears to be declining, can't hit lefties at all and can't field anymore.  He made $7.5 million last year.  I don't see how either of these guys addresses the depth problem related to injury concerns and Lind's inability to hit lefties or play plus defence.

Mike, well there's a reason why I think Nixon or Floyd won't break the bank. Both are question marks. I'm trying to be realistic in terms of the players the Jays should go after if Wells is traded. I know the Jays aren't going to bid on Drew, Lee, and Matthews Jr. And I know there's no chance the Jays will try to trade for Andruw Jones, Beltran, or Sizemore.

If the Jays have limited resources, than both players should still be able to fit in the Jays budget. I feel like both players could provide excellent value in relation to their salary next season. If the A's can get a pot of gold with a cripple like Thomas, why can't the Jays do the same thing with another player coming off an injury?

Mike D, Lind hits lefties pretty well, and in particular controls the strike zone and hits for some power against them.  There is no particular need to platoon him, although the club may choose to for development/pennant contention reasons.  Nixon/Johnson would make an interesting right-field platoon, but for the unpleasant echoes of an old war.

I repeat what I said in the Roundtable.  There is no need to trade Vernon Wells, but it is reasonable to listen to offers. And that's the nub of it.  What are the offers?  It is easy to see now that the market salary for a player of his quality will be over $15 million annually.  His 2006 salary is a tremendous bargain, but whether another (hopefully NL) team is willing to trade commensurate talent for this bargain is uncertain.

Geoff, David Dellucci is a very similar player to the Cat.  He can't hit lefties but he hits righties well -- he produces like Cat, but with less contact and more power.  He hustles defensively but has no arm.  Were he a Blue Jay platoon partner, Reed Johnson would likely come in for him late in games as a defensive replacement.

Can the Blue Jays afford to resign Vernon Wells?  By my count the Jays, in 2008 contracts, have $56 mil committed to five players (Doc, AJ, BJ, Glaus, Thomas).  If Vernon signs for a modest $18 large then the Jays will have $74 mil committed to six players.   The Jays are still shopping for a catcher and a shortstop/second baseman for 2007, if they have to give two or three year contracts to sign them then the $74 mil in 2008 could be $78 mil (with Zaun, say) or higher depending on the other free agents signed.  If Uncle Teddy moves the 2008 payroll up to a nice round $100 mil then JP will have a little over $20 mil to sign 19 players.  Can it be done?  Lyle Overbay, Alex Rios, Reed Johnson, Gustavo Chacin will all be arbitration eligible in 2008.

If you are going to commit big money to several players then you need to offset that with many starters with salaries less than $1 million each.  In 2008 the Jays should have Aaron Hill and Adam Lind as hitters (assuming Thigpen is a backup), and a starter or two from McGowan, Romero, Marcum, etc..  Thats less than the number of big contracts.  JP needs the Jays farm system to develop these cheap players or he has no counterbalance to the big contracts.  When JP gambled last winter by handing out big money he locked himself into the corner of relying on his farm system.

So here is your test (if you are up for it)....

Fit Vernon Wells, with no deferred salary, into a Jays 2008 payroll of $100 mil or less

Explain how the Jays could sign Lugo to a three year deal for $7 or $8 mil and still afford to resign Vernon.

I agree with some of the comments posted earlier regarding Hinske's contributions.

I don't think Ricciardi should have traded him at the deadline; the $5M for '07 was a sunk cost either way, and although Hinske had proven solidly that he is NOT a starter, I think he has tremendous value as a reserve, covering four positions and serving as a good left-handed bat off of the bench. I always thought Hinske was a perfect late-inning pinch-hitter. Throw him out there every night against the other team's young gun, the guy who throws 95 but can't control his brekaing ball. As a dead-fastball hitter, and I think he has the potential to provide surprising value in that role.

Hell, in this market, that role might even be worth the $5M.

*shudder*

Hinske's contract was not a sunk cost. Boston is paying half of it in 2007.

And they paid part of it in 2006.  That $4.2 Million saved might be why we'll have Frank Thomas at DH next year instead of Eric Hinske and Matt LeCroy.  Certainly not sunk cost, or at least not after the trade unsunk it.

True...but considering the quality of prospect we received in return, and the amount of salary we wound up picking up....given the market for good backup/utility players, I'm not sure we wouldn't have been better off just to keep Hinske around.

Blair was on Prime Time Sports last week, and he said he didn't have any direct evidence for it, but it was his belief that the Blue Jays have two budgets from ownership - one without a new contract for Wells and a second, higher budget which would apply if they were abe to re-sign Wells. Take it for what it's worth.

While I'm happy for now with the Thomas signing (pending implications on other transactions), I can't help but think that Nomar at 18.5 over two years would have been a much wiser signing for the Jays.  Not only could he DH, he could back-up all infield positions and left field as well.  Plus, Adam Lind could get more opportunity with the big club as a DH when Nomar was backing up elsewhere.  Both Thomas and Nomar are equivalent injury risks.  Perhaps is was a non-starter for Nomar, though.  He seemed set on the Dodgers.

The Pierre signing is absolutely atrocious and it makes the Thomas signing look great in comparison.  This guy has been an awful hitter his entire career and his discipline on the base paths is not where it should be.  He was caught 20 times last season while stealing 58 bases (adding about 5.2 runs to his team's total).  His VORP was 18 which is about 14 points less than Reed and is unable to draw walks.  I posted about this over at BVTN with more stats but it makes you wonder what a Dave Roberts can command in this market now.  He's a better base stealer, better OBP and has shown to be capable of pinch running in the toughest situations (Boston vs NYY ALCS).  Originally I thought the Jays would be smart to covet him if they traded Wells, but now I think he's gonna be vastly overpaid! 

This new free agent market has put a premium on growing your own talent.  Good thing the Jays may have 5 picks in the top 50 next season.  And Buster Olney has this quote on his INSIDER column today:
. "Our guys think it's going to be a very, very good high school draft," said J.P. Ricciardi, the Blue Jays' GM. "What this will allow us to do is to maybe draft some high school kids, and then give them some time to develop. When we first came in here, we really were in a position where we had to draft college kids. Not next year."

[Pierre's] discipline on the base paths is not where it should be.  He was caught 20 times last season while stealing 58 bases

58 steals in 78 attempts is a 74% success rate. What's your benchmark? I thought the generally accepted standard was around 70%.

[Dave Roberts is] a better base stealer

He was last year, for sure (a ridiculously good 89% in 55 attempts) and has a better career rate. But just 2 years ago he was at 66% in 'only' 35 attempts, and he's 6 years older than Pierre.

It's a good percentage but he ran into 20 outs, which means he cost his team 20 outs and reduces his Stolen base Runs to 5, for all his running around, he only added 5 runs to his team's total, which is still big but he has to get some more discipline.  Roberts seems to have found his range the last few years and in 20some less attempts last year, he added 11 runs to his team's totals...

I am very encouraged by the new emphasis on the high school draft for 2007.  With the new CBA's provisions allowing a longer development time before 40 man roster decisions must be made, high schoolers become more attractive.

It would be very nice to have Alex Rios and Aaron Hill around in 2012 or 2013 when the cream of this crop of youngsters is ready. 

BTW this brings about a question I had, anyone know where we could find data from last year about when stolen bases occurred for each player?  Ex:  0 out, 2nd hitter up to bat, 7th inning

On Gerry's assumptions, to sign Wells to a long-term contract and to sign another player (be it Lugo or a pitcher) for more than a year at $7-$9 million, on a $100 million budget for 2008 will be very, very difficult.  The team would have to shed salary elsewhere.  Reed Johnson would likely be making in excess of $5 million in arbitration.  Lyle Overbay would probably be over $7 million.  Rios will probably be about $4 million.  It would not add up. 

It is not at all certain though what the budget for 2008 will be.  Mid-market may be $110 million annually by then, and Uncle Ted may keep up with the masses.

While I'm happy for now with the Thomas signing (pending implications on other transactions), I can't help but think that Nomar at 18.5 over two years would have been a much wiser signing for the Jays.  Not only could he DH, he could back-up all infield positions and left field as well.

You make it sound as if he would have come to Toronto were he simply offered what Thomas was offered.

I believe that he specifically wanted to be on the west coast to be near his wife. And I'm sure he'd much prefer playing a position rather than DHing. As for ever again playing any position other than 1B, I'll believe that when I see it. The man can barely move.

It's a good percentage but he ran into 20 outs

So what you're saying is that Pierre would have been more valuable if he had stolen 29 in 39 attempts rather than 58 in 78 attempts. Colour me confused... By that type of logic, .400 is a really good on-base percentage but the hitter needs to improve his plate discipline because he's making 60 outs every 100 PA and those outs are diminishing his value.