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Someday we'll look back on this and it will all seem funny.
--Bruce Springsteen



How shall we remember them, these Ten Days in May?

To me, they will always be the Zambrano Era. And it was with high hopes that some of us awaited the dawning of this Brave New World. Alas, the best laid plans of mice and mice aft gang'a'gley, as the great Robbie Burns once noted. Here is precisely how the gang gleyed:

Toronto Blue Jays Team Batting Statistics
NAME G AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
Alex Rios 9 33 3 11 4 0 2 21 5 4 3 0 0 .333 .395 .636 1.031
Troy Glaus 9 31 6 9 2 0 3 20 5 4 5 0 0 .290 .371 .645 1.017
Lyle Overbay 8 30 6 8 2 0 3 19 4 3 6 0 0 .267 .333 .633 .967
Sal Fasano 5 16 1 3 1 0 1 7 2 1 7 0 0 .188 .235 .438 .673
Jason Phillips 7 18 1 4 3 0 0 7 2 1 5 0 0 .222 .263 .389 .652
Aaron Hill 9 34 3 5 3 0 1 11 2 4 9 1 0 .147 .237 .324 .560
Vernon Wells 7 28 3 6 2 0 0 8 0 1 4 0 1 .214 .241 .286 .527
Frank Thomas 9 34 2 7 2 0 0 9 2 2 7 0 0 .206 .250 .265 .515
Matt Stairs 7 11 0 2 0 0 0 2 3 2 2 0 0 .182 .308 .182 .490
Adam Lind 9 39 0 7 1 0 0 8 1 2 10 1 0 .179 .220 .205 .425
Royce Clayton 5 11 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 2 0 0 .091 .231 .091 .322
Jason Smith 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 .000 .200 .000 .200
John McDonald 7 18 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 0 0 .056 .056 .056 .111

Blue Jays 9 307 27 64 20 0 10 114 26 27 66 2 1 .208 .272 .371 .643


Toronto Blue Jays Team Pitching Statistics
NAME G GS W L Sv QS Hld IP H ER R HR BB SO K/9 WHIP ERA
Jeremy Accardo 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.0 3 0 0 0 0 5 11.25 0.75 0.00
Jamie Vermilyea 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.0 2 0 0 0 0 1 3.00 0.67 0.00
Casey Janssen 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.2 3 0 0 0 1 1 3.38 1.50 0.00
Shaun Marcum 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 4.1 5 1 1 0 1 5 10.38 1.38 2.08
Tomo Ohka 2 2 0 2 0 0 0 12.0 16 9 10 2 6 3 2.25 1.83 6.75
A.J. Burnett 2 2 0 2 0 0 0 12.2 15 10 10 5 5 16 11.37 1.58 7.11
Brian Tallet 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.1 3 3 3 0 3 3 8.10 1.80 8.10
Scott Downs 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.0 3 3 3 2 3 5 15.00 2.00 9.00
Josh Towers 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 8.0 10 8 9 4 1 5 5.63 1.38 9.00
Dustin McGowan 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 5.0 6 5 5 0 5 4 7.20 2.20 9.00
Jason Frasor 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 3.1 5 4 4 1 5 1 2.70 3.00 10.80
Roy Halladay 2 2 0 2 0 0 0 10.1 23 16 17 1 2 5 4.35 2.42 13.94
Victor Zambrano 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 5.1 12 10 10 5 5 1 1.69 3.19 16.88

Blue Jays 9 9 0 9 0 0 0 77.0 106 69 72 20 37 55 6.43 1.86 8.06

But all bad things must come to an end. The line must be drawn here! And so it was.

A couple of notes from last night's game. First, of all I did join the Chat briefly, and within two innings I remembered immediately a) why it's fun, and b) why I stopped participating. You see, I'm actually getting paid to do something else when I'm at the Dome, and whenever I get involved in the Chat I start missing stuff. And have to figure out what and how and catch up and go into Edit mode. It's not good, I shouldn't be doing that. So I hereby announce that only when I'm not actually working the game will I be climbing aboard. Unless something really important happens that I need to share, of course..

I was wondering why Lyle Overbay lit out for second as Hill went from second to third on Phillips' fly ball to right in the sixth. Harris cut the throw, and Overbay put out quite easily. And then I remembered Delmon Young missing about six cutoff men the last time the Jays played Tampa, and I suppose Lyle was remembering too. Ah, well - not this time, buddy. Presumably the coaches had a chat with the young prodigy.

When I see a big Blue Jay righthander come out to the mound in the ninth inning and overwhelm hitters with a 95 mph heater and a scary splitfinger... memories rush over me. Sweet, happy, memories. For this was Tom Henke's modus operandi for years and years and years. And man, do I ever, ever like to see a Jays pitcher remind me of Tom Henke. Even if it's just for one night...

Gibbons gets ripped a lot for his game management in general and his bullpen management in particular. I haven't joined the chorus, largely because I think game management is tremendously overrated when it comes to assessing what a manger brings to a team. I think for the most part, there's actually very, very little to choose from between the thirty guys who actually have the major league jobs, and the scores and scores (if not hundreds or thousands) of people who don't. As for his bullpen management, I'm not wild about it, but I do think he's been largely finding out what he's got to work with this year - who can do what, who can handle this, and so on.

(I think a manager's main contribution to a team comes from a) recognizing talent, understanding what his players can and can not do; b) getting the players to show up and play hard; c) making the players better, improving them somehow. I'm not convinced that Gibbons brings anything special to the table here, and it would be really nice to find someone who did - but I'm not convinced that he's doing any real damage either. I'm pretty sure I don't have enough information to make a judgement in any case.)

And for the most part, I'm inclined to leave game management decisions alone. But last night, I was scratching my head in puzzlement and my neighbours were also scratching their heads in sympathetic confusion. We couldn't figure out what the hell the manager was thinking...

The manager was Joe Maddon. With one out in the seventh, Alex Rios ripped a home run to put the Jays up 4-1. Shawn Camp was ready in the bullpen, Vernon Wells was at the plate. And Kazmir, who is still only 23 years old, who did miss the last six weeks of the season last year with shoulder soreness, and who also represents the hope and future of the franchise, such as it is, had already thrown 115 pitches in a long game that had already gone 2 hours and 20 minutes. But Maddon didn't move, and it quickly dawned on us why - he was hoping Kazmir could retire Wells, so he could leave him in to face the left-handed hitter on deck.

And while the insanity of this line of thinking washed over us - the left-handed hitter in question was Jason Smith, and why the hell would you think you need anyone special to face Jason Smith - Wells ripped a double into the corner and Maddon reluctantly pulled the plug and brought Camp in to the game.

And just as we were all muttering stupid, stupid,stupid, Smith lined an RBI base hit (on an 0-2 pitch, yet. Ouch!).

Proving once more the wisdom of Yogi: in baseball, you don't know nothing.

And there you go. You can't lose 'em all.

12 May 2007: The End of an Era | 79 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
PaulE-O - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 06:11 AM EDT (#167921) #

I agree with the others, we obviously don't want move any of our core talent - Glaus excepted if he can get healthy by the trade deadline. Bring up a couple of arms like Purcey, possibly audition Hill at 3rd, and let the guys stay loose and try to have some fun. There's no reason the club can't finish around .500

the thing is, I'm so sick of building for the future, because the future never quite is as bright as I've thought over the past few years - I'm glad I moved to England this year because at least I'm not able to watch it, still hurts though

maybe by the time I move back they'll be finally be finished reubuilding, Doc, Vernon, Hill, Rios, Lind are all under 30, Overbay is just 30? not a bad unit at all

Intricated - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 07:21 AM EDT (#167922) #
But all bad things must come to an end. The line must be drawn here! And so it was.

Even the second time around, the Star Trek reference is just as good.  I just hope it applies to both the losing streak and the rash of injuries.  This far, no farther!

That last line is that much harder with Glaus out now.  I wonder how the lineup will be patched together by Gibbons; Rios is doing well at lead-off, and I wouldn't want to mess with a good thing (one of the few the Jays have at the moment), and Lind and Hill don't seem comfortable higher than fifth in the lineup right now; maybe Overbay back to #2 now that he's swinging it?  Wells goes back to batting third to protect Thomas, with Hill, then Lind, and rounding out with the likes of Phillips/Clayton/McDonald.

If these assortment of bats warm up and hit to their realistic potential, just maybe they can squeeze out 3-5 runs a game.  Whether that would be enough to break .500 with the pitching corps the way it looks the rest of the year is a different story.
tmlfan4ever - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#167923) #
The silver-lining (and I know we're all struggling to find it) is this....

The Jays will presumably be sellers in what will prove to be a buyers market in 2007. With parity in the MLB being what it is, there are a LOT of team that think they have a realistic chance to make a run. The Jays should have a good opportunity to move someone (I don't know who it would be) to bring some more talent to the rotation in years to come.

It's a stretch, but at least there is something to look forward to.

Lets hope last night was the first of a few more wins on this home-stand,

TML

ayjackson - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#167925) #
With regard to the pulling of Kazmir, Rance noted during the MacDonald at bat that regardless of what happens, it was likely Kazmir's last batter and that Camp would come in to face Rios and Wells.  The decision to leave Kazmir in to face Rios was when the mistake was made. 
Frank Markotich - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#167926) #

The Blue Jays won a game! The sun is shining and the birds are singing.

I was puzzled by the decision to insert Jason Smith into the game with Kazmir pitching. Is Clayton nursing an injury, or was it because Smith is 1 for 2 lifetime against Kazmir or something.

And what's next? Frank Thomas goes down with scurvy?

Kieran - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#167927) #
Sal Fasano, hitting .188 and getting on base at a .235 clip...was the 4th most productive player during the 9-game skid. Wow.
Gerry - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#167928) #
The Jays have called up Ryan Roberts and placed Roy Halladay on the DL.  Glaus is listed as day to day.  Monday is an off day so the Jays could get by without a fifth starter until next Saturday.
daryn - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#167929) #
<<The Jays will presumably be sellers in what will prove to be a buyers market in 2007.>>
I don't know if I agree with you, but in order for the rest of your comment to make sense I'm presuming you mean "sellers" market.

If that's the case, lets hope Frank really winds it up and is worth a bunch in July.... Yankees anyone?
Pistol - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#167931) #
The Yankees already have an expensive DH they who they won't put in the field.

Of course, having a $25MM+ DH platoon would be cool.

AWeb - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#167932) #
I seem to recall a comment a few weeks ago to the effect of "John McDonald could go 1-22 and still be hitting .300". Well called, whoever that was.

That Clayton/Smith/McDonald combo is something else, huh? Combined OPS of .633 over 9 games...it always bothers me when fans say "I could do that well, geez they suck!", but, well, if you're willing to put on some padding and lean into a pitch when you have the chance, you would do that well at the plate.

Accardo impressed me, which was nice to see from a toronto pitcher. He has a genuine strikeout pitch, that ends up in the dirt. I had almost forgotten those existed, and I can't recall the last Jay to feature a pitch like that. Hard to hit sliders and curves are nice, but it's good to see the other team swing at balls in the dirt once in a while.

Rios has proven himself an above average player at this point to me. He hasn't even seemed good to me this year (a hot streak during a horrible losing streak probably explains that), and his numbers are still very good. If only he'd concentrate fulltime in the field. Those dropped flies bother me...3 errors already this year in the OF is a decent yearly total.

Finally, Thomas hit 39 Hr and 11 2b last year. Having 4HR and 6 2B is not a good thing...a huge part of his value came from making most of his XB hits homers. His slow start is slowly becoming slow first half. Nothing 2 HR and 2 BB wouldn't solve today though.

topherkris - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#167933) #
Last night was one of the few nights i decided to drop a bit of extra cash and drop down from the five hundred level.  I'm not sure whether or not it was a good call, but i left that game feeling good.  The problem is, I walked into the game feeling great.  It was a beautiful day, the dome was open, no jacket was required, and just to the left of the scoreboard was flashing "94MPH Fastball" for both pitchers.  All i could think of was the old joke: "A millionaire retires from business and is asked what was his key to becoming a millionaire.  He responds with, "I'd like to thank my wife, I owe everything to her". The reporter then states, "She must be a great woman, what were you before you met her".  The millionaire quietly responds with "A billionaire".

The Whole season has been like this.  Many of us had extremely high hopes for the Jays, so even when the jays do something good, we're left feeling okay, but not nearly as good as we'd felt before even watching a single game this year.

The pitching was erratic. The Batters were chasing. The pitchcounts sky rocketed.

Anyways, it all came down to Accardo and his fastball was topping out around 94ish, but his split finger -- Jeeeeesus.  That thing was ever diving.

Anyways, i came here to ask a question about Accardo:

Last batter of the night, he threw what looked like a hard slider but they called it an 87MPH split finger.  So what pitches does accardo even have other than his Fastball/Splitter combo?  His fastball was hitting 94ish, and his splitter was floatin around 82-83ish.  So i couldn't quite figure what what he was doing throwing an 87mph splitter.

Anyways, Great game! Great night.  I shall now return to the land of the cheap seats, as i might as well get the most outta these 2 dollar tuesdays!

And one final peice of parting advice:

3 street meat Italian Sausages with extra hot peppers: 9 bucks
4 Scalped 200 Level Tickets: 60 bucks
2 Beers: 20 Bucks
1 Bag of Cotton Candy: 5 Bucks

Realizing you just combined fake meat, beer, and cotton candy and are now experiencing the stomach pains that Doc was probably going through:  Priceless




tstaddon - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#167935) #
Now THAT was fun to watch.
Dave Till - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#167936) #
Wow. I didn't know Accardo was doing that on a regular basis. I gotta pay more attention.

And it's nice to see Janssen working quickly and effectively.

Has a third base coach ever won a ballgame before?

ayjackson - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#167937) #

We shouldn't give Butterfield too much credit, because Vernon had scoring in his mind as he rounded second, he was running much harder than he had to to get to third.  Credit to Butterfield for recognizing what Vernon was thinking and correctly reading the play to send him.

I seem to recall a similar play a few games ago where I don't think Butterfield recognized what the runner was thinking (going home on the throw into the cut-off man) or the throw was too crisp and the runner was held at third.  I can't remember who it was and what game though.

ayjackson - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#167938) #

Accardo hit 96 on the gun this afternoon and Janssen hit 95.

MacGowan looked better today than most of our starters have this year.  MacGowan hit the glove with the fastball that Craford laid over the leftfield wall, too.

Chuck - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#167939) #
Has a third base coach ever won a ballgame before?

How many times have you seen this situation? Man on first, two out, pitcher runs the count full. The announcers are then duty bound to say "with the count full, so-and-so will be running and can now score from first on a deep single". You almost never see this happen though, so you almost wish they wouldn't bother saying it. This time, Campbell and Mulliniks didn't say it and voila, it happened.

Upton made a boner, no doubt about it. But I think center field is where he ends up. Lots of range. Good arm. All he needs is experience. Baldelli's wonky health status might be the opening that Upton needs to get to more time out there. The D-Rays would have to backfill at second base and I'm not sure anyone in house is the answer, certainly not Wigginton or Cantu.
Chuck - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#167940) #
We shouldn't give Butterfield too much credit, because Vernon had scoring in his mind as he rounded second, he was running much harder than he had to to get to third.  Credit to Butterfield for recognizing what Vernon was thinking and correctly reading the play to send him.

Bingo. That's the way I saw it as well. Wells forced the issue. Jamie Campbell was a little too generous heaping all the credit onto Butterfield's lap.
FranklyScarlet - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#167941) #

Vernon SHOULD be running hard!  There should be a sense of urgency to go 100% on the basepaths.

I'm familiar with all of the factors a third base coach considers when determining to send....

Just didn't know he was also responsible for "recognizing what a baserunner was thinking"

timpinder - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#167942) #

ayjackson,

I thought McGowan looked really good today too.  That's two starts that I've thought he looked better than his number's suggested, especially today with 1 BB to 6 K's. 

What are people's thoughts?  I've always liked McGowan so I wonder if maybe I have a bias and I'm giving him too much credit.

Chuck - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#167943) #
The 6:1 K:BB ratio was nice, but those two dingers, not so much. That pitching line was right out of the Josh Towers v2007 playbook. McGowan will certainly get a number of starts to continue his audition for the rotation, but it would be nice to eventually see a true and unqualified good performance (6 IP and 2 R or 7 IP and 3 R, something like that).
Mylegacy - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#167944) #

How sweet it is. If the Spankies lose tonight we're just 2 games out of second.

McGowan, in aobut his 10th or so, major league start of his career looks about where AJ is after however many hundreds. They both have electric stuff. I'm impressed. Janssen looked good. Accardo looked good...ever notice how TB can do that to pitchers?

If Frasor picks it up a notch we could move Janssen into the starting rotation later. Doc, AJ, McGowan, Janssen, Marcum, Romero, Purcey...somewhere in there are 5 major league pitchers.

It's FUN to watch guys who give us HOPE.

actionjackson - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#167945) #
Not to put a damper on Accardo, but from my vantage point (granted it's the couch watching on TV), he threw the ball much better last night than today. He struck out Upton on a very straight belt-high fastball, which the Sportsnet scorebar said was 96 mph, so it was probably 94. He then struck out Pena on a splitter that was up. I don't know if he gets away with those two pitches against say Rodriguez and Giambi, or Ortiz and Ramirez. That said, his (apparent) confidence and ability to throw strikes, with good velocity and movement is a wonderful find for a team that's had more than its share of bad bounces lately. Let's call the fact that the two hitters were Upton and Pena a lucky break, as well as Wells not getting killed in the on-deck circle by Lind's foul ball, and Upton's boneheaded move and suddenly you can see the bounces starting to go the Jays way.

Somewhere Leigh is smirking with a great big "I told you so" and I will give credit where credit is due for his vociferous pleadings for Accardo's release from mop-up hell. I did jump on that bandwagon, but Leigh and possibly Mike Green (?) started it, so congrats gentlemen. I also thought Dustin was pretty good today and stayed away from the walks, but again we'll see how he does as the competition he faces ramps up. As for the bullpen well what can you say, it was perfect, even though I still feel Janssen belongs in the rotation. I don't want to see that switch made immediately though because starting two non-stretched out starters in three days, with Ohka in between, could cause a complete bullpen meltdown. If they do start a minor leaguer instead, that could also kill the 'pen though so those guys better suck it up for the next little while. Given the current composition of the 'pen, that's quite a tall order, but stranger things have happened.

Nice to see that the team can still find humour in all the injuries. It's going to be a long climb back, but I for one refuse to concede a season with 126 games left to play. It's just way too early. The team must find a way to beat up on the "bad teams" if they want to have any chance. I'll stick with Joaquin Andujar, patron saint of nutty ballplayers and say: "Youneverknow", after all it's all we as fans have got right now: hope, both for now and the future. I will not bring up the various shortcomings of the team, as they've been beaten to death by myself and others ad nauseam. I'm just happy to see the bleeding stop for now.

Chuck - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#167946) #
He struck out Upton on a very straight belt-high fastball... He then struck out Pena on a splitter that was up. I don't know if he gets away with those two pitches against say Rodriguez and Giambi, or Ortiz and Ramirez.

Accardo did seem to get away with a couple of pitches, but the whole world isn't Rodriguez, Giambi, Ortiz and Ramirez. That's not a fair benchmark. Still, by getting ahead in the count, he did put himself in a position to allow Upton and Pena to effectively strike themselves out, something they are both prone to doing. It's easier to get away with questionable pitches on two-strike counts rather than, say, 3-1 counts.
GregJP - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#167947) #
Why is it that Billy Beane trades for the Jack Custs and Chad Gaudins of the world, and we get John McDonald, Royce Clayton, and Jason Smith?
jasona - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#167948) #

Hi All,

I haven't posted in awhile, but I've been reading for over a year...and wanted to throw some of my own research into the mix.  All it really does is prove what we already know.  I hope JP knows how to do basic math like this, or at least takes the time to read what the bauxites have to say. 
We're all pretty quick to jump on the bullpen, and heck, why not?  They're an easy target...BUT...If you look at the ERA's of Doc and AJ combined (4.46) and then everyone else that's started this year (Chacin, Towers, Ohka, McGowan, Zambrano) they're going along at 7.09...not a bad clip for a bunch of guys getting paid to throw strikes, hm?  Compare that to the bullpen numbers...combined ERA of 4.40...and if you take the befallen BJ Ryan out of the equation they're at 3.39.  Not too shabby. 

I think there's alot of merit to the below-average pitchers struggling in the absence of Gregg Zaun.  Sure the guy was hitting .186 when he got injured, but the dude knows how to call a game.  Of all the pitchers we have, the only one I'd trust to call his own game is Doc, because really how well can either Jason Phillips or Sal Fasano call a game?  The other point I want to make in this long post is that there are alot of teams that have had below average starts to the season.  While our injuries put us behind the 8-ball, it's a good chance for a bunch of talent to come up and surprise us all...just like the Indians of 2005 surprised the AL Central.

Magpie - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#167949) #
Why is it that Billy Beane trades for the Jack Custs and Chad Gaudins of the world

Well, practically everybody's taken a flyer on Jack Cust - this is his second go-round working for Billy Beane. Arizona, the Mets, the Rockies, the Orioles, the A's, and the Padres have all decided they could live without him. He's completely useless to a NL team, so that's not all that surprising. As for the Jays, they already have a big slow guy who can't play in the field or run the bases very well.

The Jays actually traded for Chad Gaudin before Beane did, and that very foresight was their mistake. The real problem with Gaudin was that Tampa Bay rushed him to the majors years before he was ready, and wasted two of his three option years. Which prompted me to say, back in August 2005:

Gaudin, and anybody who tries to give him a shot, is in a real bind.He certainly doesn't look to be ready for the Show quite yet - I mean 31 hits in 13 IP is really, really hard to cope with. If he's not ready next spring, though, he has to clear waivers to be sent down. And if he's not ready, you can't carry him. Unless you don't mind making the other players, who want to win, wonder just how serious management is about winning. So you try to send him down, and someone claims him... Then that team will have the same problem - a pitcher not quite ready, but a pitcher you can't send to the minors without the risk of losing him altogether.

The only team that can afford to carry someone like that is a team that doesn't mind losing... The unfortunate Mr Gaudin needs to pitch very well next spring, and carry it on into the season, or else. Or else he's got an excellent chance of bouncing from one bad organization to another while he tries to learn his trade. The foolishness and impatience of Tampa's management has done this young prospect no favours at all.

The Blue Jays decided not to take the chance that he wouldn't be ready for the majors in spring 2006, and cashed him in for Dustin Majewski.
CaramonLS - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#167950) #
Good point Jason, even though Jason Kendall is essentially a waste of a lineup spot when it comes to his turn in the batting order, he swears by his own game calling ability. 

I remember an interview on Rome where he said "If you shake me off, it better not get hit".  Who can really argue with that given the superb job that the Oakland pitching staff has done.  They've put up some pretty spectacular numbers so far, and have always been among the top ones.  There is something to be said for a catcher who can call a good game, but it is one of those things which is impossible to measure.  Of course, there have been a few pitches which have "hit the mitt", with Fasano catching that have gotten slammed right out of the yard.  That could be a pretty big red flag right there.
Leigh - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#167953) #
Somewhere Leigh is smirking with a great big "I told you so" and I will give credit where credit is due for his vociferous pleadings for Accardo's release from mop-up hell.

I just wish that he'd been voluntarily put in a high-leverage role, rather than by default.

I didn't watch the game (I'm still on strike), but I take it from these threads that Accardo has looked good in the ninth yesterday and today.

For all the heat that Ricciardi has taken lately, let's pause to give him some credit for a steal of a trade (Hillenbrand and Chulk for Accardo).

When I initiated my strike (April 28th), there were three issues important enough to take to the picket line:

HEY HEY, HO HO
SUB .300 OBPs HAVE GOT TO GO

HEY HEY, HO HO
FREE JEREMY ACCARDO

I'M ON STRIKE FOR BLUE JAYS NATION
REINSTATE TOWERS TO THE ROTATION


If issue number two has been resolved in my favour, then I ought to give some ground on issue number three.  I think that Towers is clearly one of the top five healthy starting pitchers on the team, but the time for prospect evaluation has begun.  I'll begrudgingly waive the third condition in consideration for the gracious freeing of Accardo.  That leaves the sub .320 OBPs on the table (in the lineup).  There are three such lineup slots, if Glaus is hurt.  All I want is one, JP.  If either Clayton is replaced or if Ricciardi can acquire a better injury replacement for either Zaun or Glaus, then the strike will be over.
Magpie - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#167954) #
there have been a few pitches which have "hit the mitt", with Fasano catching that have gotten slammed right out of the yard.

Hey. Joanna said something like that the other night. Remember...

We were watching and Fasano sets up inside for Towers against Papi.  My dad says "Anywhere but there." Towers, because he is a good little soldier or was perhaps questioning the existence of God, pitches it right to Sal's glove.

And Ortiz promptly put the baseball into the seats at something well in excess of warp velocity. I was in the press box, so I had no idea of where Fasano had set up until I got home and I was surfing the web and I saw a video clip highlight of the Ortiz homer. Which I didn't watch, because I was all ajar at the frozen image - Ortiz, bat cocked, and Fasano setting up on the inside corner a bit above belt high. And I was thinking, Sal - Josh can't throw a fastball by David Ortiz in that spot. I don't think Nolan Ryan could get a fastball by Big Papi if he put it there. You want Josh Towers to try?

I figured Sal was just so exhausted from his heroic chase for the popup in front of the dugout on the previous pitch that he wasn't exactly firing on all thrusters at that moment...

Here's something interesting, by the way. On April 17 2003, Curt Schilling began experiencing pain in his side while running the bases. On April 19, he underwent an appendectomy.

His next start came exactly two weeks later - May 3, 2003 against Atlanta. He went five fairly mediocre innings, but said he felt fine afterwards, and ripped off a pair of complete game victories the following week.

It is not known if there was a bloody t-shirt involved...
ayjackson - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#167955) #

Here's something interesting, by the way. On April 17 2003, Curt Schilling began experiencing pain in his side while running the bases. On April 19, he underwent an appendectomy.

His next start came exactly two weeks later - May 3, 2003 against Atlanta. He went five fairly mediocre innings, but said he felt fine afterwards, and ripped off a pair of complete game victories the following week.

I don't think Barnani came back that fast, and I would think that his game isn't as stressful on the abdomen as a pitcher's.  Anybody know for sure how long Barnani was out?

Magpie - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#167957) #
Bargnani had his surgery on March 21 - his first game back was the season finale on April 18, although he would have played a few days earlier but he came down with flu or something just when he was about to return.
Rickster - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#167958) #
I hope Roy takes his time coming back in order to build up his strength. He should also consider having precautionary Tommy John surgery as long as he is out and the season is pretty much over.
actionjackson - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#167959) #
For all the heat that Ricciardi has taken lately, let's pause to give him some credit for a steal of a trade (Hillenbrand and Chulk for Accardo).

Couldn't one turn that into 1 and 1/2 years of Hillenbrand and Accardo for Adam Peterson and Vinny Chulk? That sounds pretty good to me. Jason Frasor for Jayson Werth (despite current difficulties) doesn't look too bad either, or Ted Lilly for Bobby Kielty, or 4 solid years of Cat, or 2+ from Downs, and 3+ from Zaun, but the McCowns, Griffins and Elliotts of the world are right, let's just focus on the crappy moves. The fact of the matter is he's an average GM with a big mouth that cheeses people off and therefore some take great delight in seeing him fail. I wish he'd hold his tongue sometimes and I think that plus various performance aspects could lead to his demise prior to his contract being up.

People always rip his drafting compared to Gillick and Ash, which makes me laugh because Gillick started as GM in 1978, so we've seen all of his successes. Ash started in 1995, so his good players are in their prime now. So, JP has 5 and 1/2 years to go on, Gillick is closing in on 30 and Ash's first draft was 12 years ago. If you equalize the time frame, by looking at Gillick through 1983 and Ash through 2000, the gulf is not really that wide.

By 1983, Gillick had two stars from the amateur draft to hang his GM hat on: Lloyd Moseby and Dave Stieb. I know, I know Jesse Barfield was there, but Gillick inherited him from Peter Bavasi, kind of like you know Halladay, Wells, and Rios for JP. Mark Eichhorn had had an unsuccessful stint as a starter in 1982 and guys like Brian Milner, Dave Baker, Geno Petralli, Andre Robertson, Matt Williams (the pitcher), and Stan Clarke had had cups of coffee with the big team. A huge part of Gillick's success came from the Dominican Republic and since I'm not sure whether JP was told to stay out of the foreign non-drafted free agent market until the financial bleeding was stabilized or if he decided to do so on his own, I'm only going to look at the amateur draft.

In 2000, the best major league player drafted by Gord Ash was... Billy Koch? If you'll remember, Halladay was busy setting a record for ERA for pitchers with 100+ IP at 10.64. What about Vernon Wells? Interestingly enough, he'd only had 90 big league AB in two September call-ups and he wouldn't get regular playing time until JP arrived, despite debuting in the majors in 1999 and tearing it up in Syracuse in 2001 after struggling a bit there in his first full AAA season of 2000. As for the rest: Clayton Andrews, John Bale, Casey Blake (Tor. and Minn.), Josh Phelps, and Michael Young with Texas had cups of coffee.

JP's star so far is Aaron Hill. I'd say he has as good a shot at a solid career as Moseby did. Dave Bush is a decent starter, who seems to have trouble avoiding the big inning. Casey Janssen and Shaun Marcum could be decent mid to bottom of the rotation starters, which as this year so far shows, is nice to have. It's too early to tell yet with Adam Lind, but he does have a sweet swing. Unfortunately Tom Mastny pitches for Cleveland, but he looks pretty good too. Russ Adams, who knows? Adam Peterson, Zach Jackson (Mil), Ryan Roberts, and Jamie Vermilyea have had cups of coffee.

So once you remove the time advantages that Gillick and Ash enjoy over Ricciardi, the amateur drafting is not that different. Gillick, when he wasn't being "Stand Pat" was a wizard with trades, where JP is just average. I just wish JP would button it and take the high road for once.

CaramonLS - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#167960) #
People always rip his drafting compared to Gillick and Ash, which makes me laugh because Gillick started as GM in 1978, so we've seen all of his successes. Ash started in 1995, so his good players are in their prime now. So, JP has 5 and 1/2 years to go on, Gillick is closing in on 30 and Ash's first draft was 12 years ago. If you equalize the time frame, by looking at Gillick through 1983 and Ash through 2000, the gulf is not really that wide.

Why are we doing that?  The Jays should have hired an experienced GM then if that is the case.  Why should we just forgive errors outright and chalk them up to rookie inexperience?  This is a results oriented business, the Jays should have hired JP after he'd been kicked to the curb a few times then and not wasted the 5 or so + years it takes to "develop" a GM.

Action, big difference between Highschool and College players which you seem to be missing in your analysis - JP drafts almost exclusively college players, they take less time to develop at the lower minor leagues.  That HAS to factor into the equation of how fast people get to the bigs.

actionjackson - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#167961) #
Touche Chuck. Obviously no pitcher, except Dave Stieb tomorrow, is perfect and I didn't mean it as a slam. I just meant to say that from my perch, he threw the ball much better last night. You're right getting ahead in the count is crucial because it puts hitters on the defensive and my benchmark was too high. I hope we've found our closer and that Gibby rides him through good times and not so good times. In contrast to Mr. Frasor he has a wicked out-pitch in that splitter, which has to be in the back of the hitter's mind, making it all the more difficult to catch up to that lively darting fastball and nasty slider. I'm glad to see him being used in the right spots, and I hope Frasor can put it together again, so that maybe, just maybe, Casey Janssen gets a shot in the rotation. I know Mylegacy would be in heaven and I don't think there's anything to lose, so get it back soon Jason, we need ya!
actionjackson - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#167962) #
CaramonLS, I think you misunderstood the time reference. These are JP's first 5 and 1/2 years as Blue Jays GM, so if you want to compare him with his predecessors fairly, you have to compare them in the same time frames. We still don't really know how history will view his drafts, but we have the benefit of time to say "Hey, Doc sure turned out well." You couldn't have said that with a straight face back in 2000 though, and he was Ash's first ever pick in 1995. Of Gillick's and Ash's stars (in the allowed time frame): Stieb, Moseby and Koch, 2 were college players. College players can't be all that bad if Stieb, Key, Verlander, Randy Johnson, Frank Thomas, Troy Glaus etc. can be big league stars out of the college ranks.

Where JP has fallen down is drafting college players almost exclusively, but that is either due to the financial state of the club he inherited or his philosophy or both. Since I'm not on the inside, all I can do is speculate that it might be a combination of the two. High School players tend to get larger bonuses to buy them out of their scholarships. Since it's obvious he's going to survive this draft as a GM, let's see what he does with it, as it's obvious Rogers is starting to put their money where their mouths are, at least on the MLB level. All that money that they've been spending on free agents will be thrown out the window if they're not willing to spend more on the procurement of amateur talent. I hope that we'll all be pleasantly surprised come draft day in June. I think Travis Snider was a start, but I want to see much more. They only really bumped up the major league payroll in 2006 and for the first time they drafted a high schooler with their first pick. I'm hopeful that that was the thin end of the wedge with regards to the Jays drafting philosophy. If the money's there and JP still goes for a college-heavy draft, then it's on him. If the money's not there, you've got to wonder what the hell Rogers is doing in this business. I've heard that this is a high school heavy draft and the Jays have a lot of picks in the first 115 and that they intend to go after some high schoolers. The proof of that will be in the pudding.

There are also rumblings of having a stronger presence in Latin America, which also takes money. That would also be a good thing. The more different sources of amateur talent the better I'd say. If the Far East is a little too rich for Rogers' blood, then get going on Latin America. You have to remember how far in the red this club was when JP took over and I think (*crosses fingers*) that the purse strings being loosened on the big league payroll is a sign that they will be loosened elsewhere as well. I see no reason to believe that won't be the case. What also might need loosening is JP's rigid drafting philosophy and if it is this team will be in good shape. I guess we'll find out come June if it was JP's philosophy or money that was keeping the drafting strategy one dimensional. I choose to be optimistic and say it was the lack of funds. Call me a fool if you wish. JP will be the fool if he doesn't kick butt in this draft.

Joanna - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#167963) #

Thanks for the shout out, Magpie.  My dad isn't one of Sal's pals.  He also suspects Doc was tipping or something.  The Mike Lowell homerun reminded him of Joe Carter's, both the pitch he got and where the ball ended up.  And Joe Carter has said he knew what was coming.  That of course might mean he had a good idea based on instinct.  Or Cito gave him a little info.  They should be checking out Roy's video while he convalesces.

Il Mago got a sinus infection while he was recovering which slowed down his progress.  He was out a month.  And came back looking like crap but playing decently.

Accardo pitched really well today.  He also has a strut, which is important in a closing situation.  Janssen always works fast, which is important for success.  He has a lot of energy.  I used to think he was a spaz (last year he totally was) , but he has been able so far to focus it.

 

Leigh - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#167964) #
ActionJackson,  Ricciardi has made quite a few excellent trades (the ones you mention, plus the Speier and Mondesi trades and many others), and some excellent signings.  He's made more good moves than bad, I think.  He's a fine GM, but I've been downright confused by some of the moves of the last six months.

actionjackson - Saturday, May 12 2007 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#167965) #
Yes Leigh, a lot of head scratchers lately for sure. He allegedly had enough money for Lilly and Meche, but not to get Lugo. He then throws three AAAA players at the middle infield problem and expects to solve it, and grabs Matt Stairs out of the rocking chair and sticks him in as a fourth OF. So OK, he missed out on Lugo, but there were still many 2B out there. Is Hill's SS defense that unplayable? I guess the answer is yes. If it is why not take a shot at Lugo? I even found the Thomas signing somewhat curious, given that you already had Glaus on the roster, who has more and more looked like a DH this year. Then the three amigos to make the kid starters force their way onto the club...in early May as it turns out. That's what bothers me about it. It seems to be reactionary roster planning, as opposed to carefully thought out roster planning. Or, maybe it's the new math. Either way, I'm not sure I like it as the bench, SS and the pitching staff appear to have been short changed. I think I would feel that way regardless of the ridiculous amount of injuries. Stairs still would not be acceptable as a 4th OF. The 3 amigos in the middle IF have been about as advertised and the ones at SP have probably done a little worse than I thought they were capable of, and of course none has pitched better than Towers, but that ship has sailed. Oh well, I guess there's no need to panic now. Somehow that doesn't convince me that we won't see more panicky/rash decisions from management this year. I guess that's my other request for JP: Let 'em play dude.
VBF - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 12:20 AM EDT (#167966) #
If it is why not take a shot at Lugo?

Because the Red Sox will take some of that salary when they dump him off to Toronto after signing A-Rod?

Hey, it's an honest answer!
Kieran - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 01:59 AM EDT (#167968) #
Slightly off-topic...but a question for the group. Why do we care about a pitcher's K:BB ratio? I mean, the two events are really not related to each other. I understand K:IP, BB:IP, etc. but in my opinion a K and a BB are mutually exclusive and not necessarily correlated in any way.

This came to mind as someone mentioned that McGowan's 6K:1BB ratio was good. Again, we're alienating the hits and more specifically, extra base hits he surrendered.

As far as I'm concerned, I'd be just as interested in TB+BB:K.

Thoughts?
BigTimeRoyalsFan - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 04:03 AM EDT (#167969) #
Because the Red Sox will take some of that salary when they dump him off to Toronto after signing A-Rod?

in this scenario, do u really think the sox keep lowell at 3b and trade lugo? i wouldnt be so sure arod can still play ss like he once did. but if he can, forget the sox. tell ted to sign arod next summer!
tmlfan4ever - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 07:09 AM EDT (#167970) #
The reason K:BB is so heavily quoted is because of the fact that pictures have complete control on only 3 outcomes: strikeouts, walks and home runs. The rest, in one way or another, relies on the rest of the team behind him. Naturally, the ratio of strikeouts to walks is very important. A guy like AJ can survive on some nights when the walks are high because he strikes out a lot of batters as well. I would say K:BB and HR/9IP are two of the stats I look at first and foremost when evaluating a pitcher.
CSHunt68 - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#167971) #

Here's something interesting, by the way. On April 17 2003, Curt Schilling began experiencing pain in his side while running the bases. On April 19, he underwent an appendectomy.

His next start came exactly two weeks later - May 3, 2003 against Atlanta. He went five fairly mediocre innings, but said he felt fine afterwards, and ripped off a pair of complete game victories the following week.

In Schilling's case, the appendix hadn't ruptured. I'm not sure about Doc's case, but if it did, that would _certainly_ lengthen the surgery and recovery time.

ayjackson - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#167972) #

I think one way of looking at K:BB is that there are two general outcomes from an atbat - a ball in play or no ball in play.  K:BB ratio seems to be a good way of analyzing a pitcher's effectiveness when the ball is not put in play.  GB/FB and even some LD% is a good way to analyze a pitcher's effectiveness when the ball is in play.

My personal favourite stat is WHIP though.  As a single barometer, I think it's a great indicator of pitcher effectiveness.  I'd like to see an adjusted WHIP - adjusted for WHIP with runners on base with less than 2 outs or with runners in scoring position.

Paul D - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#167974) #
Well stats usually serve one of two purposes - either they show you how a player perform, or how he will perform (or some combination).

In general, players with high K:BB ratios perform better in the future than those without, despite their ERAs.   That's a reason to be encouraged by high K:BB ratios.

Kieran - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#167976) #
I think WHIP is ok, but it factors each hit as being equal. In reality a pitcher who gives up 5 singles in 5 IP is probably more successful than one who gives up 4 extra-base hits, etc.
Joanna - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#167979) #
K: BB is also a good indication of how well he can command his pitches, as is the number of pitches he throws vs number of innings and the number of pitches per out.  It doesn't matter how hard a guy can throw, he needs to throw strikes. 
Chuck - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#167994) #

My personal favourite stat is WHIP though.

One of WHIP's two components, hits, is backward looking and does not necessarily offer predictive value. As such, it is a better metric for evaluating past performance than future performance.

The DIPS research presented by Voros McCracken a few years ago was a serious eye-opener for many people. Running the risk of mispresenting his findings, they suggest that generally speaking, pitchers have little control over the outcome of balls that are put in play. Thus, the best three metrics to predict future performance are HR/9, BB/9 and K/9, as the not-in-play events are all a pitcher can control. The K/BB ratio discussed in this thread is a conflation of K/9 and BB/9.

Looking at some of the Jay pitchers, here are their ABBIP (ABs on balls in play, AB+H-K-HR; in the absence of GIDP and CS, I have estimated AB), their HBIP (H-HR) and their BABIP (batting average on balls in play):

Accardo 39 (50+7-18-0), 7 (7-0), .180
Janssen 68 (56+17-5-0), 17 (17-0), .250
Halladay 189 (173+58-38-4), 54 (58-4), .286
Towers 96 (93+37-8-26), 29 (37-8), .302
Marcum 40 (49+17-22-4), 13 (17-4), .325

While small samples are contributing a great deal to the variability in BAPIP, in a fair world these should be, generally speaking, about the same for everyone. So for someone like Marcum, whose HR/9 has been his undoing this season, he has been hit-unlucky on top of that. Moving forward, one would expect his BAPIP to drop. Conversely, one would expect Accardo and Janssen's BAPIP to increase (to say nothing of their HR/9).

On a tangential note, David Bush's ERA was discussed in a separate thread. Basically, his very good HR/9, BB/9 and K/9 do not align with his gaudy ERA. I theorized, and Magpie confirmed, that "hit bunching" was to blame, that the hits Bush has yielded were not spread out evenly, but rather bunched, to result in an unusally high number of runs allowed. In each of Halladay's last two starts, we have seen a great deal of "hit bunching", thereby causing his ERA to be out whack with his peripherals.

I bring this up because the distinction between performance with bases empty and with men on base may, in fact, be a skill, and, as such, have predictive value. I don't know that this is the case, I just don't think we can categorically dismiss it without further study. It it is the case for someone like Bush, then DIPS alone will not adequately forecast his future performance.

ayjackson - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#167995) #
Actually, every stat is backward looking.   we use stats to predict the future, but they are based on what's happened in the past.  I just find that WHIP is a good indicator of picthing effectiveness and I haven't seen a perfect one.  It would interesting to see the league leaders in WHIP and K:BB and see which list is more impressive.
Chuck - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#167996) #

Actually, every stat is backward looking.

You're right! What I said was stupid. But I do maintain that H/9, like a hitter's batting average with men in scoring position, speaks to past performance and has minimal predictive value.

Mike D - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#167997) #
I guess I have the privilege of starting the Gibbons/Marcum Second-Guess Brigade.

First of all, I don't think 78 more or less evenly distributed pitches over six innings is irrefutable grounds to take out even a former reliever, especially since (as Campbell noted) he will definitely have a starter's rest after this game.  And yes, he walked two batters in the sixth, but his command against Carl Crawford in the final at-bat of the sixth was excellent.

More fundamentally, I can't believe how little the context of this game mattered to Gibbons.  This is a franchise universally recognized this very week as having landed in a hopeless situation with four-and-a-half months to go.  They're playing the no-hope Devil Rays.  The franchise needs a lift in the worst way.  Marcum would have loved to have the chance.  The clubhouse would have loved to give him the chance.  And all this yields to the context-free desire to keep a pitch count in the seventies?!?

Gibbons has, simply put, managed horribly this season.  Probably the worst all-around performance by a Blue Jays manager over a month and a half that I have ever observed.
Mike D - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#167998) #
Yet another point of context:  because Downs was stretched out yesterday, and because Accardo and Janssen each pitched two consecutive days, Frasor and Tallet were the only realistic bullpen options for the 7th and 8th if you were going to insist on giving the bullpen three innings.  That's another unappetizing consequence of yanking a pitcher with 78 no-hit pitches.
VBF - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#168000) #
Having Tallet in any situation facing that many right handed hitters is asking for trouble. He ended up not pitching too poorly and had some unfortunate luck, but having anyone but him take the final two innings seemed much more appropriate. I am a Tallet fan, but he should not be pitching against that many righties.

At the beginning of the season, I stated that for the Jays to contend, they are going to have to find their 3, 4, and 5 pitchers well before June approaches. It seems that they may have found them, and that's exciting.

It's early to project how Marcum, McGowan, and eventually Janssen will perform by seasons end, but if the last two days are any indication, this is a team that has a 1 through 4 who could get hot and sustain .580 baseball.
John Northey - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#168001) #
I was listening on the radio as Marcum finished the 6th and was feeling good, then went in to buy some groceries (stuff has to be done when you can).  Came out and hear Frasor was on the mound and instantly thought game over.   Maybe this was just being safe and making sure Marcum leaves in good shape and doesn't hurt his arm.  Perhaps his arm was dropping or something that I didn't hear over the radio.  That is all I can figure as pulling a guy during a no-hitter when he is still in the 70's for pitch count just seems like you are asking for the baseball gods to come down on you.

Btw, why was Marcum left in the pen while Zambrano got a shot?  One of those things that only JP and Gibbons can answer but I seriously doubt will (at least with what their actual thinking was) anytime soon.

actionjackson - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#168003) #
Why is it that people can't believe Marcum was yanked after 6 innings? All week long, he said quite clearly that he had about 70 pitches in him. The "context" of the game IMHO does not change this fact, unless you want to take your chances at adding another pitcher to the DL. He gave you the proverbial  "110%", yet you wanted more. Actually he gave you (78/70 = 1.114) 111%. Those of you disappointed with the choice of Frasor and Tallet, would you rather have seen Towers and Vermilyea? Those were probably the choices, given the bullpen usage of the last two games. Those of you questioning that usage would've been pi**ed off had he selected other pitchers in the first two games and the results hadn't gone the Jays way in the those games. It's wonderful that in an alternate universe with you as the manager the Jays would go 162-0 every year, but I don't think it's very realistic. I don't find any fault with Gibbons for this one. The offense hung Marcum out to dry and then Tallet had a brain cramp. Yes a very painful loss, but I for one refuse to blame Gibbons for it.
FanfromTheIsland - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#168004) #

I'm back, after a small absence. I went to Saturday's game, and promptly got four balls increasing my total collection to... wait for it... 10! Great game though.

On the other hand, why would you pull Marcum when he has the no-hitter going and only 70-plus pitches? And the guy who relieves him gives up a homer, and the guy after him (yes, I know their names, I'm just too pissed to mention them right now) gives up the winning run by being too lazy to cover 1st base.

Oh, and the Shaun Marcum fan club should increase after today, me being part of it for quite a while.

Mike D - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#168006) #
Actionjackson, the context doesn't change the fact of the pitch count, but in my opinion it changed the effect of those pitches.  A 90th pitch isn't a one-way ticket to the DL; injuries can happen on the 100th pitch, 10th pitch or when a pitch isn't being thrown at all.  Maybe Marcum cut back on his warmups.  Maybe he was feeling strong today.  It is wrongheaded and wildly oversimplistic to say that he overtaxed his arm by precisely 11% today because he threw 78 pitches.

My problem isn't that Frasor was chosen instead of Towers or whomever.  The bullpen choices for the 7th were weak.  That's another contingency in favour of leaving the starting pitcher in.

If Marcum begged to be removed, then my analysis changes. 

Ron - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#168007) #
With the issue of pitch counts and injuries to pitchers, I wonder how in the world does Greg Maddux continue to stay healthy?

Since 1988, he's pitched at least 199 innings a season. He's not the only pitcher in baseball to not throw extremely hard, he's not the only pitcher that goes by the standard 100 (give or take a few pitches) pitch count, and he's not the only pitcher in baseball to have good mechanics.

Why has he avoided the injury bug? It can't just be luck.

AWeb - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#168008) #
I'll go as far as to agree with the manager in this situation...I'm glad Marcum was pulled after 78 pitches. The Jays are looking to the future at this point, and the last damn thing they need is a young starter going down for a few weeks because he was stretched out too quickly in pursuit of one more hitless inning (he wasn't going 9 no matter what at that point). If I recall correctly (and I may not), they visited Marcum in the 6th on the mound, where the message may have been a simple "this is your last inning, give us what you have left". I refuse to complain about the relievers available today either , as they actually won the previous two games with a large part of the credit going to the pen.

I think it's safe to assume both teams figured on a high scoring game breaking out (6.06 ERA from a reliever starting, 8.82 ERA from Seo), and it's a good bet to have Towers, Tallet, and Frasor ready to go. I'm not saying that you give up on the game, but to not score against Seo...that was the bad part of this game. Marcum threw 39 pitches 5 days ago, and aside from his first outing (43 pitches), has been around 20 most of the time. Great job by Marcum, great to see Stairs finally get the HR he constantly swings for (not a criticism, I love that swing), and hey, a series win!
Magpie - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#168009) #
I can't complain. I assumed Crawford was going to be Marcum's last batter, whether he got him or not. I thought he was losing it. (Back-to-back walks is not typical of him.)

And I assumed that when Arnsberg went out, he told Marcum something to that effect - one more hitter, kid, don't leave anything in the tank.
AWeb - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#168010) #
I wonder how in the world does Greg Maddux continue to stay healthy?
he's not the only pitcher that goes by the standard 100 (give or take a few pitches) pitch count
Why has he avoided the injury bug? It can't just be luck.

I'm no expert on Maddux's mechanics and why he might stay injury free (I suspect his great balance reveals a lot), but I do know he hasn't been a 100 pitch guy in a long time. Since 2002, he's exceeded 100 pitches only 21 times in 179 starts (to contrast, his long-time teammate Glavine exceeded 100 23 times in 32 starts in 2006 alone). This doesn't explain why he's rarely/never injured entirely, but he is realistic at this point...he can throw 80 pitches or so (this year:83, 75, 83, 97, 80, 80, 72), and that's about it. Some guys just don't get injured, I don't think there's ever going to be a perfect explanantion for it.


VBF - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#168011) #
Those of you disappointed with the choice of Frasor and Tallet, would you rather have seen Towers and Vermilyea?

Frasor and Towers, yes. I just don't like the idea of having the walk inducing lefty facing those righties. I'd take Towers over Tallet.

Now JP, go get some bullpen relief and we can get Janssen in his rightful spot in the rotation asap.

Wildrose - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#168012) #
Pulling Marcum was the right move.  He's averaged only 17.3  pitches per game in 2007, his previous high this year was 39. Asking a pitcher to more than double his pitch output in less than a week would essentially be   playing Russian Roulette with his arm. I know it's been a bad week, but I actually admire Gibbons quite a bit for making this move, long term benefit should almost always trump knee jerk , short term  reward.

 

 
jsut - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#168014) #
I think complaining about the pitching in this afternoon's game is silly.  I'd rather complain about the hitting, or lack there of. 
BigTimeRoyalsFan - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#168017) #
the fan just played an interview i believe from this afternoon with jason frasor. he said the time would love to have more fans in the seats, and they even like playing better on the road because there are more fans in the stands. he says its tough to get going when the house aint packed. its funny that of all the jays to complain about this, its frasor doing it. does he really expect people to pay money to come out and watch him continue to blow games?!
Seamus - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#168019) #
Now that the Jays are out of the race, all I'm really hoping for the rest of this season is to see progression and development in young pitchers, with an eye toward contending in 2008 (hopefully).

So, even though it was a loss today, I'm pretty happy with the game because Marcum looked really impressive.

I would really like to see McGowan, Jannsen, Marcum as 3,4,5.  At least there's potential with these guys.  With some luck, the 2008 rotation might be pretty good.





Dave Till - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#168021) #
I bring this up because the distinction between performance with bases empty and with men on base may, in fact, be a skill, and, as such, have predictive value.

I can easily imagine that some pitchers do much better pitching from the windup than from the stretch.

I don't have a problem with pulling Marcum - he would have had to throw 117 pitches to finish the game. And there's no way that he had that many pitches in his arm.
CaramonLS - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#168022) #
Perhaps Magpie can refresh my memory on the pitcher (or manager, I can't remember) who said it was the total time in the game, not the pitch count, which contributed to tiredness, and it was in fact around the two hour mark that he would always get tired, no matter how many pitches he threw.
Barry Bonnell - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#168026) #
Absolutely no problem with Gibbons pulling Marcum. Big problem with McDonald pinch hitting instead of Rios. Gibbons was evasive when asked why he chose McDonald over Rios saying he has his reasons and he doesn't have to share it with us commoners. Rios said he isn't injured.

My patience with Gibbons wears thin.
John Northey - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#168027) #
Now that I've had a break from the frustration of the game it is obvious it was smart to pull Marcum too soon rather than too late.  When your offense scores just 1 run on a day the opposing pitcher comes in with an ERA over 7 you know there is more to worry about than pulling a starter during a no-hitter.  Plus, of course, we do not want to see yet another injury.
Dez - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#168030) #
My only problem with Gibbons management today was the fact that he didn't use Alex Rios at all.  If he was sick or injured, then obviously my complaint is moot, but if not, what was he doing on the bench the entire game?  When you're missing 3 regulars, you don't give your healthy ones a rest.  I at least thought he would be used to pinch hit, but no.  Using John Macdonald to pinch hit for Jason Phillips is downright laughable.   
actionjackson - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#168031) #
Mike D, I apologize if you took my "111%" remark to be anything more than a flippant riff on the old "give it 110%" cliche because that's all it was. He hadn't thrown more than 43 pitches in any outing this year and that outing came on April 4. In his last outing, he threw 39 pitches, so he doubled that today which is very impressive for him and quite lenient for the Jays staff. I think under the circumstances they went as far as they could with him. Remember, when building up starters arms in Spring Training most teams start at 30 pitches, then 45, then 60, then 75, and then 90 before declaring the starter to be stretched out for his 6th start, which usually coincides with the end of Spring Training/the beginning of the Regular Season. Given the way he's been used so far this season, I think even a 60-pitch pitch count would've been reasonable and that would've been enough to get him through 5 (59 pitches through 5). You have to keep an eye on the big picture particularly with the way the players on this team have been dropping like flies. 90 pitches would seem like a reasonable goal for his next start, and then hopefully he will be fully stretched out.

As for Maddux, he is an incredible rarity. His delivery appears to be absolutely effortless and he has always been one of the most efficient pitchers in the big leagues (being in the NL his whole career certainly helps with that). I remember seeing him throw a complete game with just 79 pitches and I think it was last year. I'm not sure what his philosophy is re: weight training, but he ain't exactly the bulkiest specimen out there. I could be in left field, but I think adding bulk is a bad move for pitchers. Toning and lengthening the muscles seems like the way to go, but I'm no expert. Very small sample size but comparing the philosophies and the results of two former teammates: Barry Zito and Rich Harden is an interesting exercise. Zito emphasizes flexibility and has never missed a start and Harden is chiselled and we all know his injury history. Aha, you say, but what about Roger Clemens? That's easy: freak of nature.
actionjackson - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#168032) #
I wondered about JohnnyMac, "pinch hitter extraordinaire" too. Perhaps Rios was given a full day off because no matter how many regulars are injured, you have to give the ones that are still standing occasional days off, unless of course you want to set an all-time record for Man Games Lost in a season. If that was the case, why not leave Phillips in to hit for himself. We're not talking about much of a difference between Mac and Phillips though. They're both sinkholes against RHP. I figured that it was a good sign because it, along with Roberts' start at 3B, might mean Gibbons has finally given up on Jason Smith and that, as Martha Stewart is wont to say, "...is a good thing".
ayjackson - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#168034) #

At the end of the day - it was just a bad outing for the Jays' bats.  There seem to have been a lot of those lately.

You're left asking yourself, "Were Seo and Marcum that good, or was it the pink bats?"

Bid - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#168035) #
Oh, I don't know, but seeing as we're second guessing, how about Rios pinch runs for Thomas who might need three singles to score? Maybe Rios steals second, maybe not, but Hill certainly sees different pitches, and Rios scores on anything that gets by an outfielder.
VBF - Sunday, May 13 2007 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#168037) #
the fan just played an interview i believe from this afternoon with jason frasor. he said the time would love to have more fans in the seats, and they even like playing better on the road because there are more fans in the stands. he says its tough to get going when the house aint packed. its funny that of all the jays to complain about this, its frasor doing it. does he really expect people to pay money to come out and watch him continue to blow games?!

And I will point to Jason Frasor and say that among all non-playoff teams in the last four years, the Jays have the highest growth in attendance since 2003. This is a fan base that grew after a 67 win season, and one that actually bought into the mantra of the GM from the start, something Dombrowski's Tigers, Ryan's Twins, and Beane's A's fans never did.

And it's not even as though the numbers are all that bad. The Jays were pretty close to the median last year in terms of attendance. Try playing in Tampa, Arizona, Seattle, Oakland, etc.

Sometimes I wonder if the GM rubs off onto the players. Team loses 10 of 12 and the players are bitching about the crowd? I don't get it!
Magpie - Monday, May 14 2007 @ 06:33 AM EDT (#168038) #
Caramon - it was Jim Kaat. He said "my fastball turns into a pumpkin after two hours."
12 May 2007: The End of an Era | 79 comments | Create New Account
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