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Features 'Capping the Home Run Derby
So, I sifted through the results of the past five Home Run Derbies in order to determine if there were any trends...


And really, there aren't.

I defined Home Run Derby success as the percentage of swings that went for home runs. The formula, applied to each of the past five Derbies, was HR/(Outs+HR). I decided to look for correlations were there might, intuitively, be some. I looked at the participants' GB/FB, GB%, LD%, FB%, HR/FB, SLG, ISO during the season in which the Derby took place, as well as each player's current (listed) weight.

Here are the correlations between Derby Success and each variable:
GB/FB: -.03
LD%: +.15
GB%: -.09
FB%: +.03
HR/FB: -.21
SLG: -.10
ISO: -.06
Weight: +.09

Here is the full table:

Player Year Rounds HR HR% GB/FB LD% GB% FB% HR/FB SLG ISO Weight
Abreu 2005 3 41 0.577 1.62 24.10% 47.00% 28.90% 18.00% 0.474 0.289 210
Giambi 2003 2 23 0.535 0.52 21.00% 27.00% 52.00% 19.70% 0.527 0.277 230
Ortiz 2005 2 20 0.500 0.68 22.50% 31.40% 46.10% 21.10% 0.604 0.304 230
Tejada 2004 3 27 0.474 1.37 19.40% 46.50% 34.10% 16.80% 0.534 0.224 215
Pujols 2003 3 26 0.464 1.15 22.50% 41.40% 36.10% 22.50% 0.667 0.308 225
Giambi 2002 3 24 0.444 0.67 25.40% 30.00% 44.60% 20.30% 0.598 0.284 230
Howard 2006 3 23 0.434 0.68 21.00% 32.10% 46.90% 27.60% 0.659 0.346 250
Cabrera 2006 2 15 0.429 1.03 24.50% 38.30% 37.20% 17.90% 0.568 0.229 210
Lee 2005 2 15 0.429 0.71 20.30% 33.20% 46.50% 12.70% 0.487 0.222 240
Anderson 2003 3 22 0.423 1.21 20.20% 43.60% 36.10% 14.40% 0.541 0.226 225
Wright 2006 3 22 0.423 0.83 19.50% 36.50% 44.00% 12.40% 0.531 0.22 200
Berkman 2004 3 21 0.412 1.03 21.20% 40.00% 38.80% 17.20% 0.566 0.25 220
Dye 2006 1 7 0.412 0.98 20.10% 39.50% 40.40% 25.40% 0.622 0.306 235
Palmeiro 2004 2 14 0.412 0.71 21.10% 32.70% 46.20% 10.00% 0.436 0.178 190
Rodriguez 2005 3 20 0.400 1.6 22.80% 47.50% 29.70% 11.30% 0.444 0.169 195
Ortiz 2006 2 13 0.394 0.78 16.70% 36.40% 46.80% 26.10% 0.636 0.349 230
Konerko 2002 2 12 0.375 1.16 20.40% 42.70% 36.90% 14.50% 0.498 0.195 220
Sosa 2002 3 18 0.375 1.12 20.00% 42.30% 37.70% 31.20% 0.594 0.306 230
Bonds 2004 2 11 0.355 0.74 19.40% 34.30% 46.30% 29.00% 0.812 0.45 230
Choi 2005 1 5 0.333 1.06 25.80% 38.10% 36.10% 17.00% 0.453 0.2 235
Jones 2005 1 5 0.333 1 16.00% 42.00% 42.00% 25.20% 0.575 0.312 210
Sexson 2002 2 10 0.333 1.34 21.50% 45.00% 33.60% 19.70% 0.504 0.225 235
Sosa 2004 1 5 0.333 1.12 20.10% 42.20% 37.60% 26.70% 0.517 0.264 230
Edmonds 2003 2 8 0.286 0.72 20.20% 33.50% 46.30% 26.20% 0.617 0.342 210
Sheffield 2003 1 4 0.286 1.36 19.70% 46.30% 34.00% 21.70% 0.604 0.274 215
Thome 2004 1 4 0.286 0.83 17.70% 37.30% 45.00% 25.50% 0.581 0.307 245
Berkman 2006 1 3 0.231 0.93 19.20% 39.00% 41.80% 24.60% 0.621 0.306 220
Blalock 2004 1 3 0.231 0.71 18.30% 34.00% 47.70% 13.90% 0.5 0.224 200
Hunter 2002 1 3 0.231 1.54 17.90% 49.80% 32.30% 20.10% 0.524 0.235 215
Ortiz 2004 1 3 0.231 0.75 19.50% 34.60% 46.00% 19.50% 0.603 0.302 230
Tejada 2006 1 3 0.231 1.89 22.10% 51.00% 27.00% 15.50% 0.498 0.168 215
Bonds 2002 1 2 0.167 0.64 22.10% 30.40% 47.50% 27.10% 0.799 0.429 230
Delgado 2003 1 2 0.167 0.92 27.00% 35.00% 38.00% 25.20% 0.593 0.291 240
Rodriguez 2002 1 2 0.167 0.89 19.00% 38.10% 42.90% 26.40% 0.623 0.324 225
Teixeira 2005 1 2 0.167 1 22.20% 39.00% 38.80% 21.20% 0.575 0.273 220
Berkman 2002 1 1 0.091 1.03 21.00% 40.10% 38.80% 23.50% 0.578 0.285 220
Glaus 2006 1 1 0.091 0.69 16.50% 34.10% 49.40% 18.70% 0.513 0.261 240
Sexson 2003 1 1 0.091 1.4 19.80% 46.70% 33.50% 29.20% 0.548 0.276 235
Bay 2005 1 0 0.000 0.88 23.80% 35.60% 40.60% 17.00% 0.559 0.254 205
Boone 2003 1 0 0.000 1.22 19.20% 44.40% 36.30% 19.10% 0.535 0.241 190
Correlation to HR%

-0.03 0.15 -0.09 0.03 -0.21 -0.10 -0.06 0.09


Essentially, then, there is nothing significant.

It is interesting to note that, of this season's participants, Ryan Howard leads in both LD% and Weight. Our man Rios is second-to-last in LD% and is the lightest.

The moral of the story, I guess, is that everybody has a shot.  There are favourites and long-shots, however:

Fielder +378
Howard +253
Morneau +633
Guerrero +942
Ordonez +1300
Pujols +407
Rios +1400
Holliday +1000

Also note that, according to the Bill James Handbook, San Francisco has a lefty HR Park Factor (2004-2006) of 74 and a righty HR factor of 90.

What do Bauxites think? Who will be this season's HR Derby Champ?

*Batted ball data is from FanGraphs, odds are from a popular gaming site (entertainment purposes only, especially for Americans).
Posted by Leigh on Monday, July 09 2007 @ 02:48 PM EDT.
'Capping the Home Run Derby | 19 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Monday, July 09 2007 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#171333) #
My picks would be Guerrero and Ordonez.  My inclination is that the slight decline in HR power from both of them (and the improvements in the other aspects of their offensive game) is not an accident. They're obviously not better choices to win than Ryan Howard, but the odds on them are quite long for their capabilities.
[ Reply to This ]
Pistol - Monday, July 09 2007 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#171335) #
1.  Pujols
2.  Holliday

[ Reply to This ]
AWeb - Monday, July 09 2007 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#171337) #
I wonder how it works out with average homerun distance in the regular season? Thanks to hittracker.com, that info is available for 2006 (and spotty in 2005). I suspect there wouldn't be much relationship with regular season distance either, although it does point to A-Rod as clearly the longest HR hitter in the majors for the last several seasons. But since he's not participating, I'll take 100 imaginary gazoolies on Holliday.



[ Reply to This ]
Mike D - Monday, July 09 2007 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#171346) #

1.  Howard

2.  Morneau

3.  Fielder

[ Reply to This ]
Alex Obal - Monday, July 09 2007 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#171354) #
Howard and Rios. I think Mike D is right on the money - it's probably gonna be a lefty - but Rios' odds are way too long for a guy with his reputation for batting practice power. I'd be very happy betting on him.
[ Reply to This ]
Alex0888 - Monday, July 09 2007 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#171356) #
1st Howard
2nd Fielder
3rd Holliday

[ Reply to This ]
RhyZa - Monday, July 09 2007 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#171367) #
Alex, what a show
[ Reply to This ]
Leigh - Monday, July 09 2007 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#171370) #
Also note that, according to the Bill James Handbook, San Francisco has a lefty HR Park Factor (2004-2006) of 74 and a righty HR factor of 90.

None of the lefties advanced to the second round.
[ Reply to This ]
Alex Obal - Monday, July 09 2007 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#171371) #
I am skeptical no longer. I figured lefty hitters would really be able to take advantage of the short porch since they're all just facing batting practice fastballs. How hard can it be to try to super-pull everything? Shows what I know. That 421 power alley is a killer.
[ Reply to This ]
Twilight - Monday, July 09 2007 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#171372) #
Wow, I expected Rios to jack a few, but that was one heck of a show. He looked a little tired at the end there, which was unfortunate, but he far surpassed my expectations. It is cool to see the really long hits, they're fun to see but in terms of effectiveness, a 380-foot HR is just as good as a 500-foot HR in terms of what goes on the scoreboard. Go Rios!

Guerrero really grinded (ground?) that one out. It looked like he was out of energy and his fingers were killing him, but he's one of the most durable players in the game. And he's such a great all-around hitter. Go Vlad!

So the player with the fewest HR (12) won the derby. I guess it really goes to show how different the atmosphere is here.

[ Reply to This ]
Joanna - Monday, July 09 2007 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#171373) #

That was a beautiful show by Alex Rios.  What a pretty swing.  And the various internet/sports opinion people that dissed his inclusion can now eat it. 

If he is invited again, I think he will learn to somehow leave a little in the tank for the third round.

[ Reply to This ]
Rob - Tuesday, July 10 2007 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#171383) #
These are the greatest four words ever (part of MLB.com's All-Star video coverage):

Orlando Hudson mic'ed up

It is absolutely fantastic. ("Hey, Lexi, I love you, but I ain't American League no more!")

[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Tuesday, July 10 2007 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#171387) #
Was that actually Hudson's voice? Or was it like at the UN, where an interpretor is speaking?
[ Reply to This ]
kpataky - Tuesday, July 10 2007 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#171389) #
The way the different rounds are worked led to the unfortunate circumstance where Rios actually led all players in the Derby with a total of 19 HRs, but Vlad Guerrero won the Derby with a total of only 17.
[ Reply to This ]
Dez - Tuesday, July 10 2007 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#171393) #
Remember that Guererro didn't get to hit for all 10 outs in the last round. He only had to beat Rios. I think he had 3 outs remaining, so he very well could have caught Rios in the totals.
[ Reply to This ]
VBF - Tuesday, July 10 2007 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#171408) #
Paul Malholm is sitting at home watching Jerry Springer and Nick Johnson is probably suffering from gigantism...

I am so glad we kept this guy.

[ Reply to This ]
groove - Wednesday, July 11 2007 @ 08:11 AM EDT (#171416) #
Great to see that they rewarded "Moonlight" Rios' performance in the homerun derby by letting him play catch for a couple outs in the bottom of the 9th.  Not that I stayed up to see it anyways...
[ Reply to This ]
Twilight - Wednesday, July 11 2007 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#171450) #
Correction: one out. Rios came into the game in the 9th with two out. At least he caught the winner!

A note on closers...is it just me or does Accardo look a lot like K-Rod? Young guy, throws smoke, fast power delivery with arms and legs all over the place, killer breaking pitch, just plain nasty when he's on, struggles with command when he's not. If he learns to control a bit better, the game will once again be over in the 7th inning. Facing a trio of League/Accardo/Ryan would be absolutely demoralizing. If we're going to play with 3 center fielders, we might as well play with 3 closers too!
[ Reply to This ]
'Capping the Home Run Derby | 19 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.