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With their starting rotation finally completely intact, the Blue Jays march into the oppressive, focus-shattering, jersey-melting Kansas City heat, where the Royals have won six of their last seven. The good news is that all four games are night games. The bad news is that the forecast calls for four straight highs above 100 degrees...


Tonight, Excelsior Springs homeboy Shaun Marcum comes home and faces the dreaded Gil Meche. Gilgamesh has been exactly what the Royals figured they were getting when they gave him A.J. Burnett money during the offseason: a legitimately above-average #2 starter in the American League. His 26.2 VORP puts him around 20th among AL starters, and the peripheral stats suggest that the gods have been entirely fair in awarding him a 3.96 ERA to this point. (One of the starters ahead of him in the VORP rankings is Excelsior Springs homeboy Shaun Marcum, with 27.0...)

Meche throws hard. His lively fastball lights up the gun around 94, and he's done a very good job of keeping it down in the zone this year. He must continue to do so - this has been one of the biggest factors in his making the Royals' front office look good. In the past, Meche has been a flyball pitcher, with varying degrees of extremeness (36.8%, 36.8%, 38.9%, 43.1%). This year he's actually been a groundballer (48.6%). Dayton Moore deserves some praise for seeing last year's average-ish figure as a trend rather than an outlier. Meche's improved fastball command has also seen his K/BB ratio rise to a career-high 2.43. Anyone who can combine a solid figure like that with solid groundball tendencies is going to be a tough pitcher. It'll be interesting to see whether those peripherals are for real, or if this is just an all-around career year for the 28-year-old Meche.

Meche's #1 out pitch is a dirty knucklecurve that sits around 80 and overpowers righties and lefties alike. It's a strikeout weapon on its own, but Meche also has the ability to pump high fastballs by hitters or get them with his moving changeup. He'll break out a slider once in a while to keep hitters honest, but the other three pitches are his bread and butter.

He was lit up by the Yankees in his last start, allowing 6 runs in 4 innings while walking 5 and striking out 2. His last three starts have all been losses, so he'll really be looking to get back into the win column tonight. But two of those starts came against the Yanks and the other saw him allow 2 runs in 7 innings to the Twins but get bested by Scott Baker. Alex Rios is 5-6 with two doubles, a triple, a walk and 0 strikeouts against Meche. Vernon Wells has three homers.

Saturday, slight 23-year-old righthander Leo Nunez (who turns 24 Tuesday) takes to the bump in his third start for the Royals. Since he's an outta-nowhere scrawny guy without the good face - he was a relief pitcher in the minors last year and started this year in that role, too - he has my unqualified support once the Jays are done with him. Nunez has taken a giant leap forward this year. Baseball America didn't even list him among the Royals' top 30 prospects before the season, but he posted a 0.87 ERA at AA and 2.74 at AAA (to go with a near-4 K/BB in five appearances), which prompted the Royals to turn him loose as their #5 starter. Hey, nothing to lose, right? If there is anything to lose, Nunez still has it - he's pitched 14 innings in 2 starts and a mop-up appearance and put up a nifty 1.93 ERA.

Nunez was going to be traded to the A's for Milton Bradley, but the trade was voided when Bradley was discovered to have an oblique injury.

Nunez has a frantic demeanor. He works very quickly with no runners on base, though he'll slow down occasionally for crucial pitches. His eyes give the impression that he's in some kind of deep trance. His delivery is half Shaun Marcum and half Sendy Rleal - it looks effortless until he you realize he's falling off the mound. His fastball sits around 92 or 93 and has noticeable life to it, running in on righty hitters when it's really working well. His offspeed weapons of choice are a slider that breaks on two planes but is tricky to control, as well as a changeup. He tends to stay away from the slider against lefties and the changeup against righties, which makes him effectively a two-pitch pitcher most of the time. He has a couple of problems which haven't manifested themselves yet in the majors but the Blue Jays seem pretty qualified to expose. One, he leaves the fastball up a lot. He was a serious flyball pitcher in the minors, and in his short stay in the majors he's put up a 25.9% groundball rate which would make Kei Igawa giggle hysterically. And two, his reliever-sized arsenal of pitches means that hitters will probably start to figure him out as the game goes on. In his last start, in which he lasted six innings against the Rangers, Nunez came out in full-bore strike mode, pitching to contact to try to keep his offspeed stuff under wraps as long as possible. It worked, as he pitched six scoreless innings. Nunez was probably aided a little by the fact that the game took place in suffocating 100-degree heat which probably pushed hitters to get their at-bats over with quickly.

Sunday, it's 26-year-old AL Jason Marquis Cup contender Brian Bannister, a flyballer who has enjoyed tremendous success despite not being particularly good at anything except avoiding hits. OK, that's a bit unfair. But he's a flyball pitcher with a very low strikeout rate and a solid walk rate who's given up fewer homers than he probably 'should' have.

Bannister is a smart cookie. His bag of tricks isn't overpowering - he has a 91 fastball, a cutter which is probably his money pitch, a slider, a curve, and a circle change which he perfected during a rehab stint last year, according to my trusty Baseball America prospect annual. But he lists Paul Byrd as a guy he'd like to emulate for his stupid-like-a-fox pitching style. Like Byrd, even if Bannister's not getting his offspeed stuff over for strikes, he's willing to pitch 'backwards' and prides himself on staying out of patterns. He has excellent composure, according to the Twins announcers who have seen him often this year, and he has confidence in all of his pitches: "One advantage is to have four different pitches and be able to go to any one of them any time. It gives you a lot of weapons and you kind of shape-shift throughout the game. And all of a sudden you're going to throw four curveballs and the guy is like, 'He's never done that before.' And that's part of it." I think Bannister is going to improve, even though his ERA will almost certainly go up in the near future.

No current Blue Jay has faced Bannister in the major leagues. Lefties have fared well against him - .263/.332/.423, 25 K, 18 BB - while righties have been stifled: .218/.256/.350, 33 K, 11 BB. This probably suggests that his changeup isn't quite there yet. Hopefully John Gibbons is aware of this and doesn't make the lineup too righty-heavy. It might be a good day to start Ray Olmedo.

Monday night, the Jays will send one of Roy Halladay, Jesse Litsch and Josh Towers to the hill. Since tonight's game is the first of 20 in 20 nights for the Jays, there is no need to worry about trying to set up the #5 slot in the rotation to land on an offday. Doc pitches against Baltimore and at LA of A and Oakland in the three subsequent starts regardless of when he takes this turn. The question is whether the Jays would rather have him face the Royals, or let Litsch or Towers face KC and then have Doc take on 6-0 southpaw Joe Saunders on Tuesday instead. Personally, I'd send Doc out Monday and let the Angels get a taste of Litsch instead. The Angels are the kind of speed-happy team that can spoil even the most brilliant Doc outing with a 3-2 win behind three cheapo smallball runs, and the Royals have horrendous career numbers against Halladay. Mike Sweeney, who's injured, is .152/.200/.303 with 7 strikeouts and 2 walks in 35 PA. This gives him a higher OPS against Doc than the rest of the current roster combined.

Whoever the Jays throw out there will be opposed by lefthander Odalis Perez. Although many mediocre lefties are practically guaranteed wins for the Jays, Perez isn't your average mediocre lefty, though his high-80s fastball and reputation for being 'crafty' might lead one to believe otherwise. Perez doesn't throw a lot of straight-up fastballs. He sustains small platoon splits because his two best pitches are a mid-80s cutter and a changeup, both of which are more effective against righties than lefties. He leans very heavily on the changeup, especially aganst righties, and throws it for strikes often. As a crafty lefty, he also possesses breaking stuff - a slider to keep lefties off the cutter, and a curveball to keep them off the slider.

The current Jays have underwhelming numbers against Perez. Lyle Overbay is 2-16 with 0 walks and 8 strikeouts. Frank Thomas is 3-4 with a jack and Reed Johnson is 3-5, but everyone else is a lot closer to Overbay than to those two.

The Blue Jays need to slap all four starters around, because the Royals have a very strong bullpen. (Really!) Closer Joakim "Boso Chulo" Soria was an inspired Rule 5 pick - he's been amazing. He's overpowered hitters primarily with his fastball and slider, but he's got numerous secret weapons that might portend a career as a starter. "Slugger" John Buck gives the scouting report on Soria: "It's hard to pick him up. His ball has a natural cut to it. Not as much as [Rafael] Soriano but it does have a cut to it. That's just his natural fastball. He has a great slider and curveball and can throw his change-up on any count. You have to kind of speed up your bat to get the head up to hit the cutter and, all of a sudden, he throws a changeup and it makes it difficult -- sitting in-between those two is a tough place to be as a hitter." Soria's frequent card-playing partner, Joel Peralta, says Soria has a natural stage presence and charisma to him: "Everybody likes him. He tells a lot of jokes in Spanish. He told two or three a day in Spring Training. Some of them were stupid but the way he told them was funny."

What's striking about this Royals pen is how deep it is. Peralta isn't the nominal setup man, but he throws in the mid-90s with a nasty slider. He has a changeup as a show pitch, but I remember seeing him make Manny Ramirez freeze up on a 1-2 change for a K in the Royals' season opener, so sit slider at your own risk. Then there's David Riske, who can also get into the mid-90s and finishes hitters with an overpowering change. Then there's Jimmy Gobble, a classic trashballing lefty specialist who registed 36 strikeouts to 3 walks against lefties last year (and 28/10 this year, which is definitely serviceable).

Then there's the other breakout star of the pen, Zack Greinke, who has seen his fastball hit triple digits since being converted to a relief pitcher and prompted Buddy Bell to compare him to Justin Verlander. Greinke says he likes how pitching out of the pen lets him forget about efficiency, which ironically has made him more efficient: "I have been getting them out with the first pitch instead of the last pitch. I am using my breaking ball more early in the count than I was in the past, because I probably throw that easier for strikes than I throw my fastball for strikes." Greinke has a 3.94 ERA and 49 strikeouts to 14 walks in 48 innings. As a starter, hitters hit him .338/.390/.579; as a reliever, he's holding them to .241/.297/.351.

First baseman Ryan Shealy has been rehabbing a hamstring strain. He was recalled from his rehab stint in AAA and may join the team this weekend, depending on how a physical examination goes. If he does, he'll likely steal hot-hitting utilityman Ross Gload's spot in the batting order.

Joey Renard Gathright, who can jump over a car, made a wall-slamming catch on Tuesday (second video). He's hit .354 out of the 8-hole with the Royals and will probably stick around on the roster when Mike Sweeney returns.

Since June 4, Alex Gordon has hit .288/.328/.454 with five homers. He's not going anywhere.

Tuesday's game was suspended for 36 minutes because of a power outage near Kauffman Stadium.

21-year-old Billy Butler (video) is the Royals' DH of the future who has a decent shot at being a career .300 hitter. He has a remarkable ability to go with the ball wherever the pitcher gives it to him and bash liners to all fields. Here is his spray chart for 2007 (click on 'all' to actually see the dots).

And yesterday's 1-0 win behind Kyle Davies was Buddy Bell's 500th career victory.

The Credit Section: All offensive stats, pitches per PA for pitchers and league average stats are from the Hardball Times. Pitchers' stats and leverage indices are from Fangraphs. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits and First Inning. K% and BB% are strikeouts and walks as a percentage of plate appearances; GB% + LD% + FB% = 100.


Advance Scout: Royals, August 10-13 | 91 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Alex Obal - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#172853) #
Also, I be the manager:

- Reed Johnson starts tonight, with the flyballer Marcum on the hill He also starts Monday against Odalis, the lefty. Matt Stairs goes Saturday and Sunday with the groundballing fiends AJ and McGowan on the mound and two righties starting for KC. Stairs bats leadoff both times.

Hands up, everyone who noticed McGowan has a higher groundball rate than Burnett now...

- Ray Olmedo definitely starts Sunday against splitsmeister Bannister.

- Curtis Thigpen starts Saturday, and Zaun goes Monday, even with the lefty Perez on the hill. Perhaps Thigpen plays first and gives Overbay the day off Monday. I'm letting Thigpen catch two games in the LA of A series, in hopes that he can help shut down the Angels' running game.

- I'm not really sure where I'm deploying Scott Downs this series. David DeJesus and Mark Teahen don't have huge splits. Alex Gordon has 23 strikeouts and 4 walks against lefties, and if he hits right behind Gload that's two lefties in a row, but they'll almost certainly pinch-hit Emil Brown for Gload if Downs comes in for him. I think you have to play the bullpen management by ear in this series.
ahitisahit - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#172854) #
Winning 3 of 4 may give me some hope that the Jays can win on the road. I'd love to see Matt Stairs in the lineup with the groundball pitchers as well. Did anyone read the nyyfans.com forum? The 2 Jays fans and were killed by the NYY faithful.
Mick Doherty - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#172856) #

Buddy Bell's 500th career victory.

Which sounds nice until you look it up and learn he's 500-694. Ick!

Mike Green - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#172857) #
Actually, McGowan's and Burnett's lines overall are very close.  Alas, they also share a right elbow bond.

The Royals as a team have hit lefties better than righties, as for that matter have the Angels.  Downs and Tallet should be given a light week. 

ayjackson - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#172861) #
Is there a point where McGowan gets shut down this year?  His last two seasons were 112 and 101 innings pitched.   His high was 2003 with 152.  He's on pace for about 190 this year.
Mike Green - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#172862) #
Now, that's a very, very interesting question.  Dustin McGowan has thrown 127 innings so far this season, and by rights, he has 11 starts left. 

I myself am very skeptical of the ability of TJ surgery to withstand the stresses placed on the arm by power starters.  Personally, I would limit both him and Burnett to 100 pitches maximum, with the goal of knocking down their average innings per start to about 6 for the rest of the season.  If the club is definitively out of contention, I would definitely use other pitchers in the starting role (Janssen) to lighten their load. 

There are however a spectrum of opinions on the question of workload limitations for post-TJ starters.

Mike Green - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#172864) #
Damn, I can't divide.  49 games left means 10 starts for McGowan.  It is still probably best if his workload is reduced a little bit, in my opinion.
scottt - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#172867) #
Downs and Tallet should be given a light week. 

Actually, Tallet has reverse platoon numbers (.250/.195). He's been more effective against righties all year. Janssen and Accardo have good numbers against lefties, while Brian Wolfe has extreme split numbers. .136/.333
Mike Green - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#172869) #
It is probably better to look at career splits rather than 1 year splits for a reliever because of sample size.  Tallet has had a small platoon advantage over his career, as has Janssen.  Accardo has unsurprisingly had a reverse platoon advantage.
AWeb - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#172870) #
I theorized a week ago or so that Chacin might get a shot at a few more starts later this year after shutting down McGowan, because I was also concerned about the increased workload. If the team somehow makes a run, which as noted another thread means playing .750 ball from here on in, I'd let Mcgowan pitch out the year (chances at the playoffs are rare), but that's very unlikely. I like the idea of limiting the workload as well, especially in September, when they can call up another relievers or two to fill in the innings.

Dayton Moore deserves some praise for seeing last year's average-ish figure as a trend rather than an outlier.

He'll need to make more than one good signing to get credit. There's always some luck involved, and we don't really know whether he signed Meche because he's a big guy with "great stuff", or actually thought he might show great improvement due some rational reason. We've seen lots of similar contracts not work out. I hope the Royals can actually show consistent good signings though; like all formerly good teams that stink for an extended period, I eventually start to sympathize with them.
scottt - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#172872) #
It is probably better to look at career splits rather than 1 year splits for a reliever because of sample size.

It would be true if these guys have had significant career numbers. I wouldn't make any decisions based on last year's numbers. These guys have grown up tremondously.

Accardo relies on the splitter against lefties. I don't know about Tallet. Also, somebody will have to make room for Burnett and I don't think it will be Wolfe. Personally, I'd move Towers to the bullpen and send down Tallet for now.
CaramonLS - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#172874) #
He'll need to make more than one good signing to get credit. There's always some luck involved, and we don't really know whether he signed Meche because he's a big guy with "great stuff", or actually thought he might show great improvement due some rational reason. We've seen lots of similar contracts not work out. I hope the Royals can actually show consistent good signings though; like all formerly good teams that stink for an extended period, I eventually start to sympathize with them.

He had a pretty 4.89 ERA in July, and looked rough in his one start in August to date.  It looks like Gil Meche is headed right on course for his usual 2nd half crash.  If he finishes the year with a 4.8+ ERA will people still be lauding this signing?  He has overperformed to date, and we'll see whether or not that continues. 
smcs - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#172879) #
Personally, I'd move Towers to the bullpen and send down Tallet for now.

I don't like this because Towers was so bad in the bullpen when he was moved back earlier this year.  I think it would be smarter to send him to AAA and keep him as a starter in case of injury or if Litsch takes a sharp downward turn or if McGowan gets shut down.
AWeb - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#172880) #
Shaun Marcum : the Dave Stieb for the new millenium? Similar background (converted infielders), pitching motion. Marcum doesn't have the same stuff Stieb did (who did really), but he has been damn impressive. 98 hits in 120.6 innings, which is probably in the top 5 in the league in hits/9,  3:1 K/BB. For some reason the hardballtimes stats hate him (ERA about 1.3 lower than the predicted), but for now, I don't care. He's fun to watch, and it's too bad his calf cramped up on him tonight. Probably a combination of the heat and the adrenalin from pitching in his hometown caught up to him.
scottt - Friday, August 10 2007 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#172883) #
Well, that wasn't easy.



HippyGilmore - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 12:29 AM EDT (#172884) #
The 07 Jays sure seem to flirt with a lot of no hitters, don't they? I mean, it hardly seems odd on the team Dave "Almost there, almost there, almost - OH GOD WHY" Stieb had about 10 jillion heartbreaks, but I've certainly never seen so many early-game no-no's as I have this year.
VBF - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 12:41 AM EDT (#172885) #
 I'd move Towers to the bullpen and send down Tallet for now.

It has been no secret that JP likes to be involved in managerial decisions throughout his tenure as GM. If Gibbons hates using Jason Frasor, JP must have similar feelings. So if you don't plan on losing him, let him be the one sent down.

In a perfect world, they would have realized Frasor had some value and dealt him.
VBF - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#172886) #
That should read, "If you don't plan on using him".

And the possibility of Casey Janssen becoming the fifth man in the bullpen and a healthy BJ Ryan joining this current staff makes one gitty for next year.

Thomas - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 02:50 AM EDT (#172887) #
Personally, I'd move Towers to the bullpen and send down Tallet for now.

I wouldn't. I want a second lefty in there with the way Gibbons uses Downs, unless the second lefty is ineffective. Tallet's been slumping recently, but he's not ineffective. Personally, I'd send down Wolfe, but knowing the way Gibbons uses the bullpen, I'd send down Frasor. Regular work at Triple-A and a recall in September is better than 5 or 6 innings over the rest of the month.
scottt - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 07:27 AM EDT (#172890) #
What I mean is I'd send Tallet down for the next 2 series so he can see some playing  time  and  I'd  go with Frasor  if I need an early out against a lefty or two.

Wolfe is great as long as you keep him away from lefties or use him to force a pinch-hitter.



scottt - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 07:38 AM EDT (#172891) #
Towers to the bullpen is now official. One of  Frasor, Wolfe, League or Tallet will have to be sent down.
zeppelinkm - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 08:00 AM EDT (#172892) #
Last night's game was a close call... can anyone else figure out why Gibbons had Wolfe up in the 8th when Jannsen was struggling? Lefties or not, I wanted Downs in. Then it just so happened a lefty came up so bringing in Downs is what happened.

But if Wolfe had came in the 8th inning, with a 1 run lead and runners on base with only 1 out, i'm pretty sure I would have swallowed my stomach.

And man, was that double play Hill --> MacDonald turned ever huge. Like, seriously huge. If the Jays go on a run (we seem to say that a lot after some of these games), that play might very well be the catalyst.

But really, Wolfe was warming up.... I just can't fathom it! Get Accardo up to go for a 5 out save if need be.
Mike Green - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#172893) #
Towers to the bullpen is the right move, for the simple reason that Litsch is pitching better than Towers now and has been a better pitcher along the developmental curve.  Being the 5th man in the rotation for Litsch is pretty much the ideal role for him  with September not too far away.

Wolfe apparently has Gibbons' confidence, and perhaps Arnsberg's as well.  The roster move that follows from Burnett's return will tell us how much weight (if any) Ricciardi places on statistical evidence.  I am hoping that there is an understanding that Wolfe's 12 strikeouts in 21 innings, .224 BABIP and 2.11 ERA do not sit together well.  It is a mighty shame that Jason Frasor was exiled.

Paul D - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#172894) #
John McDonald has a 0% chance at the gold glove, correct?
Geoff - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#172895) #
Should we praise Marcum for his heroic feats these last few months, let us remember the genius who made it all possible:
http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070705&content_id=2068431&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor

And where is he now?


Geoff - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#172896) #
whoops.  a proper link. would help.
ayjackson - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#172897) #
Players usually earn their exile, and I don't think there's an exception here.
CaramonLS - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#172898) #
Shaun Marcum : the Dave Stieb for the new millenium? Similar background (converted infielders), pitching motion. Marcum doesn't have the same stuff Stieb did (who did really), but he has been damn impressive. 98 hits in 120.6 innings, which is probably in the top 5 in the league in hits/9,  3:1 K/BB. For some reason the hardballtimes stats hate him (ERA about 1.3 lower than the predicted), but for now, I don't care. He's fun to watch, and it's too bad his calf cramped up on him tonight. Probably a combination of the heat and the adrenalin from pitching in his hometown caught up to him.

Marcum is 3rd in AL H/9 with (7.31), behind Bedard (7.0) and Santana (7.26).  He is 3rd in WHIP, 6th in HR allowed (with 20), and 10th in AL ERA.  Although Marcum has a higher % of HRs/hit, probably the highest in the league.  20 Homers over 98 hits.
Flex - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#172899) #
I hope this organization offers Fasano a coaching position when he decides to retire.
Dewey - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#172901) #
Steib was a converted outfielder wasn't he, not a converted infielder?
paulf - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#172902) #
And man, was that double play Hill --> MacDonald turned ever huge.

Could not agree more. Considering the situation (man on 3rd, one-run game, bottom of the 8th, heart of the order due) and the degree of difficulty (two of the team's faster guys, backhanded shovel to barehanded relay) it's one of the defensive highlights of the year. Right up there with Reed's game-saving catch in his first game back.

actionjackson - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#172905) #
Not to mention Reed's "Spiderman" catch in the 9th inning last night. The pitching and defense are outstanding. If the team can start to hit there's no reason they can't make some kind of push, but that's a big if especially since when there's a choice between starting a lefty or a righty, opponents are more likely to start a righty given the team's abominable splits against them. It's already happened at least once when John McLaren pulled back Horacio Ramirez to go with Felix Hernandez a little while back. Start mauling righties and the opposition on the road and this could still be a fun ride. That however is a tall order.
scottt - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#172906) #
Fasano could probably coach and catch.
Seamus - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#172911) #
Despite how great Marcum was, last night was a close call.  Another poor effort by the offense, with plenty of wasted opportunities. 

I'm really excited about the young pitching on this team, but if they want to make the rest of the season interesting, the offense has really got to find a way to hit on the road.   Otherwise, more winnable games (like last night) will be lost and they're going to be stuck around .500 all year.

Alex Obal - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#172912) #
I admit that the offense wasted a few opportunities last night, but they did an extremely good job of gassing Gil Meche in the unfriendly KC weather. Since Meche is the Royals' best starter, one would imagine this was a conscious game plan that was executed to perfection. Meche looked really good early but tired quickly. He threw 101 pitches to 22 batters (4.6 P/PA), spent far more time baking on the field than Marcum did, got away with a few mistakes the second time through the order, and was completely toast by the sixth inning.

Put another way, Meche had faced four more than the minimum through five innings, and he was on 88 pitches. And he didn't walk anybody.

Troy Glaus in particular deserves a pat on the back. He may have had a bad night at the plate, but he made Meche throw 16 pitches in his two strikeouts.
ahitisahit - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#172921) #
I guess if there is a silver lining to the fact that Troy Glaus can't hit a basketball with a barn door, he's making the pitcher work.
jeff mcl - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#172927) #
Is there anyone left who  really thinks a team with an offence this listless can make a playoff push?  The only AL teams who've scored fewer runs are BAL, KC, OAK and CWS.  It's only the awesomeness of Marcum and McGowan that keeps me watching games. 

ahitisahit - Saturday, August 11 2007 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#172930) #
Agreed Jeff, this is a completely different team on the road as well. Scoring 3 runs in 2 games against the Royals is ridiculous.
Smaj - Sunday, August 12 2007 @ 06:03 AM EDT (#172934) #

Stairs is on a tear and your offence has been struggling, thus it makes perfect sense not to have his hot stick in the lineup versus a young fastball throwing righthander when you need a win.  I'm completely dumbfounded at this point. 

This highly touted & thought to be potent offence has been truly disappointing.  Truly a shame given the arrival & performances of this fine pitching staff.  McGowan grooved a heater to Gordon after the cardinal sin of walking the leadoff batter in the inning, but he truly is becoming a pleasure to watch pitch.  I expect his maturation/evolution from thrower to pitcher will continue.  I am also on the side of limiting young arms and AJ's innings going forward in the name of caution. 

I also have absolutely zero tolerance for JP using the "injury" excuse for team performance or lack of in going forward.  He has milked this all season and at this point in the schedule, the sample size clearly finds this offence wanting.

scottt - Sunday, August 12 2007 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#172936) #
Scoring 3 runs in 2 games against the Royals is ridiculous.

Meche has been quite good this year and Nunez had only allowed 1 run in 11 innings in his first 2 starts. No surprise from me.

Every Royal to reach first base stole second even though McGowan threw his share of pickup pitches. What happened to Thigpen catching twice a week?

It would have make sense to pinch hit Olmedo once they fell behind.  Same with Stairs.

The Jays need a left bat somewhere in the 3-4-5 slots.
westcoast dude - Sunday, August 12 2007 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#172937) #

Robinson Diaz looks to have a huge impact when he comes up in September (if he comes up). Along with getting the Sal Fasano tuneup, his recent OPS has been over 1.  It seems anybody named after Jackie Robinson and born with the tools, like Robinson Cano, tends to be a star player. This makes it tough for Curtis Thigpen, a fine catcher in his own right.  What happened to him catching twice a week? or late innings?  He has started some key rallies, although there is little statistical credit in a hot shot that is scored an E.

DepecheJay - Sunday, August 12 2007 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#172941) #
So since the Yankees series it appears that the Jays have lost all ability to hit on the road.  In the last 12 road games they've scored a total of 28 runs.  Plain and simple the team has pulled a horrible chokejob when they've gotten the pitching that could possibly cause a late surge.  Spare the injury excuses, it comes down to effort, execution and gameplan.  The simple fact is that the Jays are a horribly boring offense on the road that gladly allows speedy runners like Rios and such to die on first base in an attempt for a big-inning that, judging by the stats, clearly isn't going to come this season.  Meanwhile, the teams that do win at the Rogers Centre, namely the Yankees, know that in order to win on the road you have to put pressure on the home team.  Bunts, steals, hit and runs, etc.  That's why the Yankees own the Jays and that's why the Jays can't win on the road, because they become too complacent and just wait around for the big inning that's not coming. 

What sucks most about that is that guys like Marcum and McGowan are giving the Jays amazing efforts night in and night out and the squad isn't doing anything for them.  A lefty bat would be nice, although I have to question JP in the first place for even thinking that an all righty offense like this one would be successful, let's not forget that. 

Hopefully Gibbons has some sense and realizes that the season is over and takes it easy on the pitchers the rest of the way.  There's nothing left to prove, it's already been proven.  Gibbons can't manage worth a lick and his people/communication skills are lacking, JP is the king of excuses and buying time, the offense needs 1 or 2 lefty bats with pop, shortstop isn't the problem when JMac is there and batting 9th, the rotation is looking GREAT for the future, Josh Towers is done in Toronto, Vernon Wells shouldn't have stayed in the 3 slot so damn long,  AND MATT STAIRS DESERVES TO SEE THE DAMN FIELD WHEN YOU'RE TRYING TO MAKE A PLAYOFF RUN especially considering he's been one of the Jays' most consistent performers on offense all season. 



jeff mcl - Sunday, August 12 2007 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#172944) #
Anyone else get the feeling that Gibbons learned nothing from the AJ Burnett injury after his long string of 100+ pitch starts?

* leaving Marcum in when he was clearly in pain on Friday
* leaving McGowan in for the 7th when he was nearly at 100 pitches and down three runs on Saturday

It's just a matter of time before he ruins another valuable asset.

scottt - Sunday, August 12 2007 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#172949) #
Gibbons put some much effort into his daily batting order that he's got nothing left to make in game adjustments.
trent77 - Sunday, August 12 2007 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#172950) #

I'm sure that Marcum having a no-hitter going had nothing to do with Gibbons leaving Marcum in, right?  And it's not like Marcum had hurt his arm-he got a cramp in his leg mainly because of the heat and subsequent dehydration-are you going to suffer a long-term injury from trying to fight through a cramp in your calf??

And i've never quite understood the fascination with the 100-pitch count.  A guy throws 100, that's fine but 110, an injury waiting to happen? 

I'm not a Gibbons fan, in fact, I think he should be fired in the off-season.  But to blame the guy for 'ruining' Burnett, leaving a hurt pitcher who had a no-hitter going in the 7th inning and who clearly wanted to stay in the game, and for letting another pitcher start the 7th inning to potentially give him a chance to win the game when he was close to 100 pitches is getting kind of picky, don't you think?

Lefty - Sunday, August 12 2007 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#172951) #
Brandon League has been DL'ed making room for Brunett.
jeff mcl - Sunday, August 12 2007 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#172952) #
... and for letting another pitcher start the 7th inning to potentially give him a chance to win the game when he was close to 100 pitches is getting kind of picky, don't you think?

Gibby has already pulled Marcum with a no-no intact once this season, so I don't think there would've been anything wrong with taking him out earlier on Friday as a precautionary measure.  Just in general, when a competitive pitcher like Marcum looks into his dugout to summon his manager to come take him out of the game, you know something's not right..
Flex - Sunday, August 12 2007 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#172954) #
Shall we start the discussion now as to whether Gibbons should have taken Burnett out after 7 great innings rather than milking his tender arm for another inning in the KC heat?

Myself, yes, I believe he should have been taken out.

By the way, did anyone notice the moment between Burnett and Overbay? Was it the sixth or the eighth? Overbay fielded a grounder and whipped his throw to Burnett covering the bag. Burnett then angrily bounced the ball back at Overbay after the play and seemed to be swearing under his breath.

I couldn't tell whether Burnett was mad at Overbay for the way he tossed the ball or what. And then there was a moment in the dugout later when the two were hugging, as if they were making up. Anybody have any insight to that?

GregJP - Sunday, August 12 2007 @ 11:46 PM EDT (#172955) #
Shall we start the discussion now as to whether Gibbons should have taken Burnett out after 7 great innings rather than milking his tender arm for another inning in the KC heat?

Is this point even debatable?  I think it would be a rather one sided discussion.
jeff mcl - Monday, August 13 2007 @ 12:02 AM EDT (#172956) #
These Jays are definitely leading the league in HG, Hugs Given. 
actionjackson - Monday, August 13 2007 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#172957) #
jeff mcl, I believe trent77 was referring to McGowan with the part of his post that you quoted. Flex, are you serious? Burnett had thrown 81 pitches through 7 innings and was sailing. Gibby removed him after 90 pitches and 7.1 IP, and he was awesome. Will he get injured again? Probably, he's A.J. freakin' Burnett, but it won't be because of the way he was used tonight thankfully. Please, could we have no more 130 pitch outings for Mr. Burnett? I love the way the current 5 starters appear to be feeding off each other, but the offense crapped the bed again (what else is new?).
jeff mcl - Monday, August 13 2007 @ 12:29 AM EDT (#172958) #
This starting pitching is just insane.  We're presently sitting at a team ERA of 4.14 despite starting the season with Chacin, Ohka, and Towers in the rotation.  The last time we finished a season with an ERA that good was... 2005.
James W - Monday, August 13 2007 @ 02:30 AM EDT (#172959) #
I'm certain the Jays have nothing on Manny Ramirez when it comes to hugging.
Flex - Monday, August 13 2007 @ 04:57 AM EDT (#172961) #
Flex, are you serious? Burnett had thrown 81 pitches through 7 innings and was sailing.

I'm pretty serious, actually. Fletcher on TV suggested after  I think the 5th that he'd come out at 85 pitches or sooner. The KC manager has been lifting all his starters early because they're gassed by the 6th.

Yes, he was dealing, but first start after an injury, punishing heat, why push your luck? And sure enough, he only got one more out before a home run and walk. I think it's pretty clear, to me anyway, that Gibbons should have quit while he was ahead.
trent77 - Monday, August 13 2007 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#172964) #

this really is a season of 'what-ifs'.  what if a couple of Wells, Glaus, Overbay and Thomas were actually having a good year?  what if McGowan and Marcum had started the year in the rotation?  what if Towers, Zambrano and Ohka combined for alot closer to 0 starts instead of 27?  what if Ryan was shut down in spring training and Accardo was the closer to start the year?  what if Clayton and Phillips never stepped anywhere near a Blue Jay uniform?

I really can't recall the last time I was this excited about the starting rotation of the Jays...maybe 1993?  And that didn't include 2 young guys and 2 guys in their prime.

ramone - Monday, August 13 2007 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#172971) #

Not sure if this has been mentioned in another thread or not but Towers has cleared waivers and is drawing interest from Colorado as per Rosenthal:

"The Rockies couldn't acquire a starter in time to avoid pitching right-hander Tim Harikkala against the Cubs Sunday, but they're considering trading for Blue Jays righty Josh Towers or Orioles righty Steve Trachsel, both of whom have cleared waivers. They also inquired about A's righty Chad Gaudin, who is 0-5 with an 8.54 ERA in his last six starts, but determined the price to be too high. Towers, also drawing interest from other clubs, could be moved in the next several days . . . "

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7116724?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=49 

John Northey - Monday, August 13 2007 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#172976) #
Glad to hear Towers is getting interest although going to Colorado for Towers is kind of like going from the frying pan to the fire - a fire as hot as hades - with his home run tendancies. I know the park has been playing a lot better for pitchers these last couple of years but still I think it is just asking for it if Colorado trades for him.

Lets cross our fingers for Josh as he does deserve a shot a lot more than the guys in a lot of those other teams rotations do.
actionjackson - Monday, August 13 2007 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#172980) #
I would be so happy for Josh if he could get out of the AL East, but Colorado? Has that management team learned nothing about pitchers with flyball/homerun tendencies and mountain air? I know they've got the humidor, but sheesh. I'm really glad for Josh that somebody is interested in him and I hope more NL teams figure out that this guy could have quite a bit of value in their league.

Flex, I wasn't implying that he should be out there for 120 pitches or so. In fact, I thought Gibby pulled him at exactly the right time. 90 pitches was perfect for the first start back, and he should not be stretched out much further than that. It has become quite obvious that he cannot handle a heavy workload and needs to be treated with serious kid gloves. Even that may not be enough to prevent DL time. Treat him that way from now on and you never know what he might do next year, with the smell of greenbacks urging him on. Hey it worked in 2005, didn't it?

The Jays are now 13-7 in their last 20, which is stunning considering how frustrating they've been to watch. At home during this stretch they're 9-2, with 75 RS and 33 RA, for an insane +42 run diff. They've scored 5 or more runs in 7 of those 11 games. On the road however, well thank god for the pitching and if you're the gambling sort always bet the under. They're 4-5, with 22 RS and 24 RA and they have not scored 5 runs in any of those 9 games. Draw your own conclusions, but when your pitching is giving up 2.67 R/G, you've got to do better than 4-5. Come on offense wake up. The only "contending" team hotter than the Jays in the AL over that stretch is the MFYs, who are 17-5. Unfortunately, they must catch the Sox or the Yankees and vault over Cleveland/Detroit and Seattle. What are the playoff odds over at Baseball Prospectus these days?

blu-j - Monday, August 13 2007 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#172981) #

What are the playoff odds over at Baseball Prospectus these days?

Ask and you shall receive!

AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Red Sox           70   47   .617   97.7   64.3   87.34313   11.13625   98.47938
Yankees           66   51   .585   91.4   70.6   12.51865   57.49391   70.01256
Blue Jays         59   57   .538   82.3   79.7     .13638    2.19530    2.33168
Orioles           54   62   .523   76.9   85.1     .00183     .04913     .05096
Devil Rays        45   72   .442   62.5   99.5     .00000     .00000     .00000

I included the O's and Rays to make myself feel better about the Jays' paltry 2.33%.  At least they haven't been mathmatically eliminated yet!

You can get the rest of the odds at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

- Matt

Mike Green - Monday, August 13 2007 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#172983) #
FWIW, Baseball Prospectus' 3rd order wins in the American League have Boston, New York and Toronto leading the pack.
Magpie - Monday, August 13 2007 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#172986) #
I hope more NL teams figure out that [Towers] could have quite a bit of value in their league.

Ah, but here's the thing. The NL kills Towers - them and the Yankees. Over his career he's 2-9 against the Yankees, 3-10 against the NL, and 40-35 against everyone else.

Clearly, he needs to go to the Bronx (hey, it's a big pitcher's ball park, right?). Not that I think he'd be too welcome there right now.
Mike Green - Monday, August 13 2007 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#172988) #
I imagine that Josh Towers would do well in PETCO. He's had one career outing there and allowed 1 run in 7 innings, and the park would help him, instead of hurting him. 
Magpie - Monday, August 13 2007 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#172989) #
do well in PETCO

That's true (pretty well all pitchers do well in PETCO), and we know Boomer won't be back and we don't know yet about Maddux. There may be jobs available, and Towers lives not too far away.
scottt - Monday, August 13 2007 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#172993) #

What are the playoff odds over at Baseball Prospectus these days?

Ask and you shall receive!

AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Red Sox 70 47 .617 97.7 64.3 87.34313 11.13625 98.47938
Yankees 66 51 .585 91.4 70.6 12.51865 57.49391 70.01256
Blue Jays 59 57 .538 82.3 79.7 .13638 2.19530 2.33168

I don't know. Boston has come back to earth and the Yankees pitching is still suspect.

Just platooning either of Lind or Stairs in left field would shift the odds significantly.

Btw, is Glauss hurt again? He's got 2 2-hit games in a row and he gets benched?
scottt - Monday, August 13 2007 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#172995) #
Hmm. The Royals still haven't signed Mike Moustakas. That can't really afford to lose him. Unless maybe they plan on drafting him again next year.
christaylor - Monday, August 13 2007 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#172996) #
Another night of watching this inept offense. I found myself playing what if last night (as a result of listening to Wilner) and asking what would the record be if you combined this year's run prevention with last year's run creation. Running the numbers through the usual formula, the results were underwhelming, a winning percentage of .561, still behind the Yankees (but not by much). Last year's offense was over-rated, it seems.
HippyGilmore - Monday, August 13 2007 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#172997) #

Just when you think it can't get any worse...

From a pure frustration standpoint, this season has been much worse than the 04 season from hell. At least we knew pretty quickly that that team was going absolutely nowhere; the 07 Jays keep teasing you over and over again only to fail miserably. Odalis Perez is the kind of pitcher this offense HAS to destroy; they're so hopless against righties at this point that our starters have to pitch perfectly every time out. And even though it probably didn't matter in the end since out offense has been so goddamn inept, our defense completely ruined another nice Jesse Litsch outing. Things to consider:

-The Quintet of Rios, Wells, Glaus, Overbay and Johnson hasn't homered since July 24th.

-Lyle Overbay is slugging .341 since coming back from his wrist injury.

-Since July 1st, our entire pitching staff has an ERA of 3.54, yet we've only gone 20-16 in that span.

THIS TEAM MAKES ME SO MISERABLE. I'll take a 100 loss season and the #1 overall pick over this garbage.

Eric Purdy - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 12:25 AM EDT (#172999) #
scottt, only four of the top ten have signed deals. With the earlier deadline being instituted this year and Selig pushing harder than ever to enforce players signing for slot money we're seeing a game of chicken. No team wants to be the first to go way over slot and get on the wrong side of Selig so you'll see a lot more teams negotiating to the deadline this year (or, as has been hinted at by some BA guys, not announcing a deal they already have a signature on until the last minute).

If Moustakas isn't Royals property by midnight tomorrow I'd be stunned.
Lefty - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 01:10 AM EDT (#173000) #
Baseball is 90% mental -- the other half is physical.

Yogi

I am beginning to doubt this teams mental toughness or competitiveness. At some point the numbers stop lying to you and the Jays road numbers are among the bottom of the barrel for a so - called competitive team.

It looks to me like this team views the term "road trip" the same way I did when I was a youngster.

actionjackson - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 01:35 AM EDT (#173001) #
More stories of crapitude from the road. Prior to Gregg Zaun's homerun in Saturday's putrid, pathetic display, the last time the Jays hit a tater on the road was July 16 at "The Stadium" against Kei Igawa. They lost that night 6-4, despite 11 total bases by Troy Glaus (a triple and 2 HR) and a HR by Rios and a double by Wells. Since then the mighty Mr. Igawa has rightfully been jettisoned by the Bombers. The last time they scored 5 runs or more on the road was July 13 at the Fens in a 6-5 win over the Red Sox. This marked the only game since the All-Star break in which the Jays have scored 5 runs or more. Over the same period of time this team has managed to score 5 runs or more 7 times at home.

I don't know if it's time to fire the manager or the coaches, but it sure looks like it's time for a Sports Psychologist to accompany the team on the road. In all the years I've followed the game I can't recall this kind of Jekyll and Hyde act. World Championship material at Home and stinkier than chicken that's been left to rot for 30 days in the blazing sun on the Road. Aaaaaaaaargh!
actionjackson - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 01:58 AM EDT (#173002) #
I stand corrected. There are 3 such Jekyll and Hyde teams this year. The Angels are doing it the right way. They have a .702 WPct at home and a .492 WPct on the Road. Your Toronto Blue Jays are at .614 at home and .400 on the road and the Milwaukee Brewers are at .661 at home and .390 on the road. I guess we're not alone, however the difference is that the other two teams occupy first place in their respective divisions.

Hippy Gilmore, I wholeheartedly agree 2004 was merely a flesh wound compared with this great big tease. With 2004 there was no sense of shoulda, woulda, coulda and "Oh what might have been." This season is the proverbial slide down razor blades into a pool of iodine or hydrogen peroxide. Nightly, this crew finds new ways to rip your heart out and stomp on it. Part of me can't wait until the offseason, when the pain will eventually subside.

I will not fall again for the Godfrey/Ricciardi "Panic in the streets of Boston and New York" PR campaign, regardless of what they do in the offseason. For the purposes of that campaign, I shall reside in Missouri.
timpinder - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#173003) #

It is frustrating to watch this team, but I think that there's light at the end of the tunnel.  Wells is having his worst season ever, and that's including his rookie year.  Overbay is also putting up the worst numbers of his career as a starter.  Glaus is having the worst year since his rookie campaign back in 1999.  This is the lowest batting average and on-base-percentage that Hill has had in his short career.  Johnson is having the worst offensive season of his career.  Thomas is also having the worst full season of his career, although because of his age that was somewhat expected.

The point is, I expect the offense to improve in 2008 as everybody not named Thomas improves back to their career norms.  Johnson should be a 4th outfielder or platoon LF and starting Lind against right-handers should help this offense next year too.  Also, I think trading Glaus for a young, healthy 3B who gets on base, has doubles power and at least some speed would help.  The Jays already have a big, slow slugger named Thomas, and Rios, Wells, Lind and Overbay also have 20+ homerun power.  I have no stats to back it up but I just feel that this lineup would be better if it were more balanced. 

This season has been hard to watch, but I still think that even if the roster remains unchanged they'll be better next year.

westcoast dude - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#173005) #

When I saw Matt Stairs was not in the lineup the lineup for last night's game, I put Plan B into effect: "They're going to mail it in. Turn off the computer."

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#173006) #
League-wide offence is down.  In 2007, league averages are .270/.338/.421 off from .275/.339/.437.  Runs scored are off from 4.97 to 4.89 per game.  Here are the 2006 Blue Jays.  In hindsight, it is easy to see why the team might score fewer runs this year, especially given the league trends.  Wells had had a great year in 2006.  Molina was obviously more productive than Jason Phillips had any chance to be.  Overbay and Glaus had had very good years for them in 2006.  However, the loss from 2006 Catalanotto/Johnson to 2007 Lind/Johnson was greater than could reasonably have been expected; it was pretty much a worst case scenario. 

What about 2008? Currently, the club is scoring 4.63 runs per game.  With marginally better seasons from Wells and Overbay, and contributions from Lind and Thigpen in 2008, 4.8 runs per game without significant changes in personnel seems realistic to me.  If this club is going to win, it will be with pitching and defence.  B.J. Ryan, Brandon League and Davis Romero will be returning to a good young staff. 

Timbuck2 - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#173007) #
<i>Also, I think trading Glaus for a young, healthy 3B who gets on base, has doubles power and at least some speed would help.</i>

As long as this player was a lefthanded switch hitter I agree completely.  It's all to obvious at this point that there are far too many right handers in the lineup.  Anyone know of a decent Major League 3B that fits these qualifications?  Or should we just hope that Kevin Ahrens jumps from single A to the Majors over the offseason?
Mick Doherty - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#173008) #

Also, I think trading Glaus for a young, healthy 3B who gets on base, has doubles power and at least some speed would help.

And why would any other team possessing such a young, healthy (etc.) trade him for Troy Glaus?

John Northey - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#173010) #
Trading for top young talent does seem harder each year. As the spread from baseball's minimum wage to the average is increased the more value teams will place on their young players. Hitters are (reasonably) easy to project from minors to majors thus getting a top one would be very difficult. Pitchers are more of a crapshoot as a guy who has a 4 ERA in AAA could be an ace in the majors while a guy in the 2's could flop depending on each pitchers 'stuff' and if the 4 guy suddenly figures out where the strike zone is.

I suspect JP is getting closer to giving in and trading a few pitching prospects who have impressed in the majors in one way or another (Chacin and Listch for example) to get a top notch hitting prospect but he isn't there yet. If Santos is for real (249/318/466 in AA/AAA) and could learn to take more walks then he _might_ be solid at third, opening up cash to do something elsewhere if Glaus could be traded. That is a lot of if's.

To my view we should hope for free agents/minor league prospects already here for the future rather than hoping JP does a killer trade. I think it was in a SABR publication that I read about how traded players historically don't do as well as expected vs guys who stay in one place, thus trades rarely are as useful as one would hope. For example, the big one here (Alomar/Carter for McGriff/Fernandez) saw two do as good/better than hoped for here but the other two not do as well - McGriff stayed at his level despite being in his prime 'age 27' stretch, Fernandez spent 3 years sub-100 OPS+ after being above it for 3 out of 4 years. Alomar went from All-Star to superstar, Carter had 4 of his 6 top seasons despite being 31 his first year here.

Trades need luck and skill to work. JP has had a bit of crap luck (or crap skill depending how one looks at it) with trades it seems so I suspect he'll concentrate on the other methods of building a team and saving trades for clearing out those who are not required anymore.

I really, really would love it if Rogers' ego was mixed in this winter and he tosses whatever it takes to draw A-Rod here as 'bonus budget'. Takes 5-10 wins from the Yanks and puts it here, plus we'd probably get a chance to see a Jay break Bonds record. Not to mention the fun of watching the local sportwriters go nuts. Now that would be fun.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#173012) #
I used to follow each game closely, but I've lost a lot of faith. Last night's tepid performance was totally boring. The usual lackluster hitting (Wells especially), questionable managerial decisions (inserting Tallet with the game, and perhaps the season, on the line), plus defensive errors in key situations. You knew the Jays were in deep trouble after Overbay's error. We've seen this script all year. They fall behind; they mail it in.

It's always wait 'til next year with the Blue Jays. But players (Towers, Hillenbrand) have spoken out two years in a row about the team's ineptitude or attitudinal problems. In addition, JP seems unable or unwilling to admit that the team has some glaring weaknesses (shortstop, third base, catcher). To say nothing of the mostly barren farm system.
binnister - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#173013) #

I really, really would love it if Rogers' ego was mixed in this winter and he tosses whatever it takes to draw A-Rod here as 'bonus budget'

A-Rod's starting point -- $25 M

A-Rod's desired raise -- $5M

"North-of-USA Incentive" bonus -- $5M

"Boras'-Needs-to-be-a-jerk-in-Negotiations-to-keep-my-rep" bonus - $2-3M

 

I realize that A-Rod is a premier player (and likely the MVP this year), but if it's going to take this type of money to lure him here, I don't know if it would be worth it if it keeps the team from improving in other areas.

 

Of course, if it *did* happen, I can't say that I wouldn't be ectatic.

 

Ryan Day - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#173016) #

But players (Towers, Hillenbrand) have spoken out two years in a row about the team's ineptitude or attitudinal problems.

I really have a hard time giving Hillenbrand's comments any weight, since he ends up doing something like that everywhere he goes. Do the Red Sox and Angels have attitudinal problems, and if so, can we get some too? And Towers probably isn't quite as bad, but I still can't get excited over medicore players complaining that they're being treated like mediocre players.

inserting Tallet with the game, and perhaps the season, on the line

I don't get it -Tallet's been very good all year. He's had a rough spot lately, but he's still one of the team's better relievers. You can't go with Downs-Janssen-Accardo every single night.

AWeb - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#173017) #
Toronto is currently in the maddening zone, where almost everything they do is appallingly mediocre. The hitting, position by position, generally falls in the acceptable, but not great zone (SS, LF, backup C have stunk, RF on the upside are the exceptions). The only way to make a huge change to this lineup is to find a good SS : has anyone figured out even a plausible target for a good SS (Rodriguez aside)? For every other spot, next year the Jays seem to be counting on the same player to improve, one year later and one year older. It could happen, and perhaps is even as likely as not, but I won't go into next year expecting much from this group (I'm easily won over though). From the minors, perhaps a backup catcher and Lind in LF are the only improvements I see on the horizon for 2008, and Lind hasn't shown much this year.

Watching very good pitching in tense battles game after game, where any runs allowed are probably too many, gets tiring, and for me, boring. It's great for the playoffs, where tension adds to the fun, but during the year, I want to see more 10-8 games. I guess I find losing (half the games) better to watch when the team is at least scoring some runs. Boy, am I following the wrong team right now.

greenfrog - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#173018) #
Ryan D: I agree that Hillenbrand and Towers are mediocre (and Shea has a track record of looking like an idiot). But Zaun has also commented on the team's lack of competitive drive. The point is, two or three players are saying more than the boilerplate, 'we just aren't getting the job done'. They're questioning the team's overall direction, attitude and coaching. Now, I don't put a lot of weight in a few frustrated comments, but the recurring themes, not to mention the team's long-term mediocrity, are (for me) troubling.

As for Tallet, he's been decent for much of the year. But this was a potentially season-ending game. The Jays had to win 3 in KC to stay on the fringe of contention. The team was behind in the 7th inning of a close game and the offense appeared (correctly, as it turned out) to be tanking again. Downs had only pitched 2.2 innings in August. This is precisely what bothers me about Gibbons - that in key games or situations he decides to go with the B team or player (but goes with the A player, like Janssen or Downs, when we're up by four or five runs).

I'm not saying the loss was Gibbons's fault. For the most part, the players simply didn't execute. But Gibbons's decisions are often the icing on the cake, IMO.
Andrew Ward - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#173020) #
Any thoughts on why, down by four runs in the eighth, when Thomas drew the walk, he wasn't pinch-run for? Did Gibbons think that he would score from first on a single or something?
Fawaz - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#173027) #
I'm not sure if you're serious or making a statement about all the heat on Gibbons (much of which I believe is thoroughly deserved), but

a) In that situation Thomas' lone (potential) run has little value. They Jays need a rally and the speed of the runner at first is largely irrelevant since the team is hoping a few more gentlemen make it all the way around behind him.

b) If that rally is forthcoming, that spot in the order could come up again in a critical at-bat.
actionjackson - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#173034) #
Andrew Ward, if the pinch runner "does his job" and comes around to score the Jays are now down by yippee! 3 runs. Now if anybody hitting behind Thomas comes around to score (and that is what is needed in that situation) is it not logical to assume that the big man, given a one base head start would have as well? Perhaps with a two run deficit it makes sense, but anything more than that is just making moves for the sake of making moves. Besides if the offense were to get on a roll at that point (Ha!), and that is again what's needed to win the game, his spot might come up in the ninth. I'm sure you're not advocating Ray Olmedo in place of the Big Hurt in that situation.

As for Alex Rodriguez, not on a mid-market level payroll. Unless Uncle Ted loses his mind and okays a $140-$150 million player salary budget, you won't see him here so please stop bringing that pipe dream up and providing us all with another knife to the chest when it doesn't work out.

As for this issue of a country club atmosphere and guys not trying or caring, I think that's a natural assumption for fans to make when things aren't going their team's way. I think it's possible this team cares too much and is pressing too hard. Look at the one player who gets accused of not going all out all the time: Alexis Rios. He's the best player on the team. Are you going to accuse Johnson, McDonald, Zaun, Stairs or Hill of not constantly busting their a$$e$? I didn't think so. As for Wells, yes he looks completely lost at the plate and I've seen that look from him before in his career, but I look at his fielding and he is definitely still busting it. Should he have caught those two balls the last two nights? Probably, but how many other CF would've even got to them in the first place? His effort is definitely still there on defense. Glaus is playing on painful feet, which I wish he would look after surgically or whatever it takes. I can't say he isn't busting his butt. Anyone who's ever played the game knows how important the legs and feet are at the plate and in the field. Overbay has screws in his bottom hitting hand/glove hand and that has to be messing with his swing. His defense (barring last night's goof) has been sensational. Put him and Johnny Mac together and you've got a guaranteed out on just about any groundball. Maybe they all need to adopt Rios "like water off a duck's back" personality and relax and let the game come to them.

But, just as I can't tell if they don't care, I can't tell if they care too much. I'm not in that clubhouse or on that plane and neither are any of us. I don't think professional athletes are capable of "mailing it in". I think fans are very capable of reading that into poor performance by their favourite teams. You can't make it to the best league in the world with 1000 or so of your fellow peers if you have a second gear. I cannot fathom the amount of drive that it takes just to get there and now you're telling me it's disappeared, but only on the road and against RHSP? That points more to poor roster construction and a need for a more consistent road routine than a lack of effort in my book. At a certain point these epic struggles on the road must be getting into their heads a bit and when that happens you press a little more. I've never played the game at the professional level, but I know from playing it that if you're trying too hard, and thinking about needing a hit you're doomed to fail and when you let the game come to you and stop thinking about outcomes, you tend to do better. But the nature of the mind is such that it will wander back to over thinking again. It's a constant battle and that's why "90% of this game is half mental".

As for lineup construction, my suggestion would be Vernon Wells leading off (cause it worked for him and for the team), Alex Rios hitting 4th, and put the names of the other 7 starters for that day into a hat and draw the names out. Keep doing that until you find something that clicks and don't question it when it does click. Nothing else seems to be working.

Bid - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#173044) #

actionjackson...agree completely with your account of how the team is troubled...but they aren't troubles with much affinity for action. Like trying to pick up a nickel from the tile. Some action would go good tho.

I don't know if Mickey Brantley is a etither a good hitting coach for this team or a bad hitting coach for this team. He seems low profile --I've heard him interviewed exactly once--and if his name has come up here often, I've mostly missed it. Rios is maybe his star pupil...there's a big plus. 

Is it unreasonable to consider some kind of action which centes around the Jay's hitting coach? Perhaps he could find some way to reassure us--fans, management--that he's still the right guy. Start with one struggling player...Glaus or Vernon would be great.

timpinder - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#173047) #

Mick,

I had Laroche in mind when I wrote that.  I think that the Jays could have had him from the Dodgers at the deadline.  LA was looking for a power bat and pitching.  The Jays had both.

China fan - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#173050) #

     It's interesting that Mike Green mentioned Molina.   I think JP made a mistake in letting Molina go.  He probably figured that the Jays had plenty of offensive firepower with Thomas, Wells, Glaus etc.   In reality, those guys have failed to produce, and this team desperately needs another 20-homer hitter, especially in a sinkhole like the catcher position.   Yes, I know Molina was slow and his defence was sometimes questionable, but he could have really helped this team this year, especially during Zaun's injury. 

     I haven't crunched the numbers, but it would have been interesting to see how the Jays would have done this year if Matt Stairs had been the fulltime left-fielder, John McDonald had been the fulltime shortstop and Zaun/Molina had split the catcher duties.  The team might be a lot closer to the wild-card position.  (Although, yes, there might have been a couple more errors in the outfield....)

 

ahitisahit - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#173052) #

If you were impressed by Gathraight robbing Hill twice in this series check http://youtube.com/watch?v=cySfw8f0beg this out.

I'm new to posting links, so if that didn't work, try this: http://youtube.com/watch?v=cySfw8f0beg

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