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For college hitters there's depth at 1B & 3B this year, particularly right around where the Jays will select in round 1 on June 5th.


When I look at a college line there's a few things I like to see at the top of the draft (it doesn't mean what I'm looking at is right, but it tells me a little more about a player than I might know otherwise):
  1. Improvement from year to year. Think of a player repeating rookie ball for three years. You would expect him to improve each year, no?
  2. No one year wonders. Players that come of nowhere make me skeptical. Call it the Brian Pettway effect (although in the third round a 'one year wonder' is fine).
  3. Strikeout rate under 20%. If you can't make contact in college you'll probably do a lot worse as a pro.
  4. Iso Slg in excess of .300. With metal bats you should be driving the ball a lot.
  5. A K/BB near 1:1, or less. This is a little tougher to tell since you don't know about intentional walks.
Anyway, here's the consensus top college hitters (from BA, ESPN, and Sickels) - it looks like the first 4 will go in the top 10 and then the rest could go anywhere from 10 to the end of the round 1. Links provided (where available) are from MILB's scouting reports.


Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt:

Player Year AB AVE OBP SLG K/BB K%
Pedro Alvarez 2006 240 0.329 0.456 0.675 1.12 21%
Pedro Alvarez 2007 272 0.386 0.463 0.684 1.63 21%
Pedro Alvarez 2008 116 0.302 0.421 0.534 0.86 13%

The Vandy 3B was at one point the clear #1 pick, but a wrist injury at the beginning of the year has slowed him this year. Regardless of that, he's going in the top 5.


Buster Posey, C, Florida St:

Player Year AB AVE OBP SLG K/BB K%
Buster Posey 2006 246 0.346 0.433 0.467 1.18 15%
Buster Posey 2007 246 0.382 0.453 0.520 0.84 9%
Buster Posey 2008 188 0.463 0.563 0.835 0.40 7%

The Florida St catcher has shot up the draft boards this season as he's killing everything right now. Apparently the Rays are considering him with the #1 pick. His numbers prior to this year were good, but it has a little bit of a out of nowhere feel to it that would make me skeptical that high. But man, what a line that is, especially for a catcher.


Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia:

Player Year AB AVE OBP SLG K/BB K%
Gordon Beckham 2006 286 0.280 0.348 0.490 2.15 18%
Gordon Beckham 2007 228 0.307 0.399 0.570 1.06 12%
Gordon Beckham 2008 195 0.405 0.515 0.836 0.59 9%

You can say similar things about Beckham as you can about Posey. He can apparently stick at SS. I always feel SEC players are a little underrated due to park factors/competition so I'd be pretty bullish on Beckham in the top 10.


Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina:

Player Year AB AVE OBP SLG K/BB K%
Justin Smoak 2006 244 0.303 0.407 0.586 0.98 13%
Justin Smoak 2007 260 0.315 0.434 0.631 0.74 13%
Justin Smoak 2008 194 0.392 0.510 0.773 0.54 10%

Another SEC product, the South Carolina 1B has improved nicely each year across the board. He also switch hits which I appreciate more watching how RH the Jays became. He should be another top 10 pick.


Yonder Alonso, 1B, U Miami:

Player Year AB AVE OBP SLG K/BB K%
Yonder Alonso 2006 244 0.295 0.373 0.492 1.16 13%
Yonder Alonso 2007 210 0.376 0.519 0.705 0.48 11%
Yonder Alonso 2008 150 0.373 0.537 0.753 0.36 9%

Another 1B, this one from Miami. He looks pretty similar to Smoak (but only a LH hitter), although not quite as highly rated. He could go in the area right around where the Jays select.


Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona St
:

Player Year AB AVE OBP SLG K/BB K%
Brett Wallace 2006 151 0.371 0.439 0.583 1.53 15%
Brett Wallace 2007 265 0.404 0.484 0.687 1.00 12%
Brett Wallace 2008 186 0.414 0.538 0.747 0.66 11%

Wallace was selected by the Jays in the 42nd round 3 years ago. They didn't sign him away from Arizona State and he stands to make a lot more now because of it. He's improved across the board each year. He's currently at 3B, but most feel he'd need to go to 1B in the pros. The Jays liked him once, and I don't think he's done anything to make them feel differently. If he's available to the Jays in the first round I think he might be their target. That he hits LH would be a bonus.


David Cooper, 1B, Cal:

Player Year AB AVE OBP SLG K/BB K%
David Cooper 2006 151 0.305 0.337 0.404 2.00 11%
David Cooper 2007 204 0.382 0.450 0.627 0.70 9%
David Cooper 2008 196 0.378 0.468 0.735 0.71 11%

Another lefty 1B, Cooper has been improving each year in college (his first was at Cal St Fullerton).


Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichata St:

Player
Year AB AVE OBP SLG K/BB K%
Conor Gillaspie 2006 261 0.352 0.413 0.525 0.89 8%
Conor Gillaspie 2007 295 0.325 0.358 0.495 2.50 13%
Conor Gillaspie 2008 183 0.404 0.491 0.667 0.58 8%

Another corner college hitter. The 3B from Wichata St slipped a little in his sophomore year, but is putting up big lines again. Gillaspie was the MVP of the Cape Cod League last year which the Jays seem to value.


Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina:

Player Year AB AVE OBP SLG K/BB K%
Reese Havens 2006 239 0.259 0.348 0.368 1.23 13%
Reese Havens 2007 234 0.274 0.337 0.389 2.00 16%
Reese Havens 2008 208 0.365 0.490 0.630 0.71 13%

A college SS likely to move to 3B in the pros. The 2008 line jumps out at me compared to 06 and 07.


Jemile Weeks, 2B, U Miami:

Player Year AB AVE OBP SLG K/BB K%
Jemile Weeks 2006 256 0.352 0.446 0.555 0.73 9%
Jemile Weeks 2007 188 0.298 0.393 0.489 1.00 12%
Jemile Weeks 2008 172 0.372 0.442 0.669 1.24 12%

Rickie's brother has been on the radar since his freshman year at Miami. What concerns me is that he's not much better today, and he's pretty much stuck at 2B.

-------------------

For the Jays if they go the college hitter route it looks like they'll be in the area where Alonso, Wallace and Gillaspie will be taken. If you think Wallace can play 3B in the pros he's probably the most valuable of the three. If not it's probably Alonso. I could reasonably see the Jays taking any of those three players with their first round selection, and I suspect that 2 of the 3 will be available. The Twins, Dodgers, and Brewers all select just ahead of the Jays and haven't typically been interested in the same players.

I haven't heard any scuttlebutt with who the Jays are interested in (not sure if Elliot has anything, I generally avoid the Sun). If anyone's seen anything feel free to link it in the comments.

Next week I'll take a look at the college pitchers.

College Hitters In the Upcoming Draft | 19 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#185195) #
It's a shame that they weren't able to sign Wallace away.  Nice swing and lots of pop.  He's a first baseman.
Helpmates - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#185197) #
Don't forget about Allan Dykstra.
slitheringslider - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#185200) #
http://www.projectprospect.com/article/2008/05/13/2008-draft-study-college-bats

This piece at project prospect about college hitters is a good complement to Pistol's piece.

Pistol - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#185210) #
http://www.projectprospect.com/article/2008/05/13/2008-draft-study-college-bats

That's awesome.  I'd like to see three years instead of just one, but that's real minor.

Here's where David Cooper stands (and is now in the original post).  I left him off as BA didn't have him in their top 30, but Keith Law had him at 20 and that link had him above a lot of players listed above:

Player Year AB AVE OBP SLG K/BB K%
David Cooper  2006 151 0.305 0.337 0.404 2.00 11%
David Cooper  2007 204 0.382 0.450 0.627 0.70 9%
David Cooper  2008 196 0.378 0.468 0.735 0.71 11%
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#185212) #
The centerfielders, both high school and college, Thames, Hicks et. al. are interesting.  They may be available and they are apparently good.
parrot11 - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#185237) #
I was wondering when the draft coverage here was going to start. I have a feeling that Alonso and up are going to be already off the board when it's the Jays turn to pick. Whoever they end up taking, I hope it's the guy with the highest upside because this farm system could really use that. I don't think that the Jays should be thinking of their major league roster when considering who to pick. The Brewers made the right move last year if they thought LaPorta was the best guy available despite already having Fielder. An excellent prospect can always be used as an important chip in a trade if worst comes to worst. I would be happy with either Alonso or Hicks.
slitheringslider - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#185242) #
I don't see the Jays gambling their high pick on a project like Hicks. The Justin Jackson gamble was understandable as he was their fourth pick of the 2007 draft, but since the Jays do not have that luxury this year, I see the Jays pick someone with a little bit more polish. Even the high school picks from the past two years, (i.e. Snider and Ahrens) are considered polished for their age even though they are high school players. I can see the Jays drafting a high school player this year, but to me, it is unlikely they will draft purely based on athleticism. With the dearth of middle-infield prospects projected to go in the middle of the first round and the Jays' dislike for HS pitchers, guys like Alonso (if he falls) or Wallace are their most likely target.
Mudie - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#185250) #
The Alvarez scouting report has now been posted on MiLB's site
Pistol - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#185255) #
And Gillespie as well.  They're updated. 

Mayo's mock top 10 out today.

parrot11 - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#185256) #

I'm thinking of Hicks more as a 5-tool CF than a pitcher. And while I agree that there's a good chance that this team selects Wallace if he's available, I'm talking about what would I do. Which is half the fun of doing all of this.

ayjackson - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#185257) #

I Asked Baseball America a question this week with regard to the two-way prepsters Hicks, Martin and Kelly.  FWIW, although they (Hicks especially) look promising as fielders/hitters, they said that the three of them may be the top three high school pitchers in the draft. 

Therein lies the conundrum.  Hicks projects as a mid-first rounder as a hitter or pitcher.  You'd rather start them at a position and then move them to pitching if they struggle, but Martin and Kelly project as mid-first rounders as pitchers and sandwich picks as hitters.  So where do you take Martin and Kelly and what do you do with them.

Smithers - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#185269) #
Regarding Brett Wallace from ASU, he is blogging about his road to the draft here.  He mentions being drafted by the Blue Jays previously, and sounds like he wouldn't be adverse to signing here.  Maybe there's something to the Jays redrafting guys from Arizona, a la Brad Mills?

"I knew that coming from a small school in a small town, I would need to go to college and prove myself. So, heading into the draft I was prepared for that, but getting picked up by the Blue Jays was a definitely a cool feeling."
CaramonLS - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#185270) #

Therein lies the conundrum.  Hicks projects as a mid-first rounder as a hitter or pitcher.  You'd rather start them at a position and then move them to pitching if they struggle, but Martin and Kelly project as mid-first rounders as pitchers and sandwich picks as hitters.  So where do you take Martin and Kelly and what do you do with them.

Is there something that says you can't let em do both?  Maybe let em Bat 3/5 days of the week?

metafour - Wednesday, May 14 2008 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#185279) #
The problem with Hicks is that as a hitter he is basically all projection.  He has 5-tool upside, but his power is basically non-existent right now and his approach at the plate is nothing to brag about.  That is extremely worrisome and is the reason why a lot of people have him pegged as a pitcher.
Craig B - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#185303) #

Not a fan of Wallace but I love Alonso... he hits to all fields and raked in the Cape Cod, indicating that his style will play well with wood.  He has the same problem that a lot of Miami players (and Miami athletes generally) which is that he has not been that serious in his approach.  That has changed since believe it or not, A-Rod has taken him under his wing.  He's a Dmitri Young/Raul Ibanez type hitter, with more patience and a better OBP.

James W - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#185308) #

Is there something that says you can't let em do both?  Maybe let em Bat 3/5 days of the week?

Risk of injuring a valuable pitcher.  It's the reason Bob Melvin has given for why Micah Owings isn't playing 1B/LF on his off-days.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 15 2008 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#185309) #
Craig, it was the engine room on Alonso that you noticed. ;-)

I agree with the consensus that he's a better hitter than Wallace. 

Craig B - Friday, May 16 2008 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#185439) #
Good swing power in that ass, Mike, yes.  Carlos Pena is another guy with similar build.  Mike Sweeney is the guy I would have compared Alonso too, but Sweeney of course is righthanded.
damos - Friday, May 16 2008 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#185469) #
Baseball America's Mock Draft sees the Jays selecting Conor Gillaspie:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2008/266117.html


College Hitters In the Upcoming Draft | 19 comments | Create New Account
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