Magpie, you should buy one of those Phiten neck bands I'm sure you've seen Marcum and other players wearing.  I never used to believe in such things, but some friends swore by them.  All aches and pains are gone in a day or two!

The Jay Pythagorean record would have them on an 85 win pace. 

If you had a pool at the start of the season on the Jay slugging leaders at the All-Star break (with 150 PAs plus), I wonder if anyone would have chosen Barajas, Wells and Inglett in that order?

Always fun to look at the surface numbers at the break...

ERA+ for rotation: Marcum 154, Halladay 151, Parrish 147, Litsch 98, McGowan 93, AJ 82, Purcey 37.  Preseason if you said all 3 kids would be pitching better than AJ, with AJ getting 20 starts by the break you sure wouldn't expect 2 guys in the 90's and AJ in the 80's.  Parrish is just 2 starts so don't get too excited.

ERA+ for bullpen: Downs 242, Carlson 194, Ryan 143, Tallet 128, Wolfe 128, Camp 112, Frasor 107, League 87, Benitez 72, Accardo 62 plus Randy Wells with 1 shutout inning.

Overall ERA+ = 112 which is identical to last season's overall figure.  This despite no starter over 120 for ERA+ and BJ getting under 5 IP.

OPS+ last year = 96, this year = 95. 

Huh.  Overall we have the same team as last year.  A bit surprising actually as it hasn't felt exactly the same but the results are pretty much the same (around 500).

As one of the few who is not quite ready to Abandon All Hope (although I admit the odds are 95 per cent against me), I want to point out that the Jays are 8.5 games out of the wild card at this point.  Daunting, but not insurmountable.  How to make it less daunting?  First, note that the Rays currently hold the wild-card slot, but they are showing definite signs of slumping -- seven losses in a row will do that to you.  The Rays are a good young team, but it's certainly plausible that they were playing Above Their Heads in the first half.  So, let's assume they fall out of the wild card.  That puts the Jays merely 6 games behind the next-best team, the Twins.  But let's make just one more assumption:  the Yankees, as usual, will move into playoff contention by obtaining an expensive trade-deadline star or two.  The Yanks, therefore, not the Twins, are the likely wild-card frontrunners.  The Jays are merely 3 games behind the Yankees, and they just showed -- in the latest series -- that they are as good as the Yanks, or better.  All they have to do, therefore, is stay close to the Yankees and make up those three games over the second half of the season.  Difficult, but not impossible.  (Look at the Yankees themselves in the 2007 season.)  One more conclusion:  don't trade Burnett unless the deal is too good to refuse.

Cliff Lee to start for the AL tomorrow.  He's got the pedigree to finish up as strongly as he started though, right?

He's got the pedigree to finish up as strongly as he started though, right?

A 12-2 record trumps cold, sober analysis every time.

A 12-2 record trumps cold, sober analysis every time.

Well Lee is second in the AL in Pitching Runs Created (1 behind Halladay), tops in FIP, second in x-FIP (behind Halladay again), first in Win Shares, t-first in WSAB, second in ERA behind Duchscherer, second in K/BB (Slightly behind Halladay)... the chief difference between him and Hallday is ERA (Lee's is .4 runs better), record (12-2 vs. 11-6) and innings (22 more for Doc).

I know I'd take Halladay going forward, but in terms of overall value I don't think one could definitely say that one is better than the other... Reasonable minds can disagree, but I don't think its a particularly bad selection.

I grant that Lee has been every bit as valuable as Halladay... this year. And therein lies my well-disguised point. While this is an old and tedious debate, what should All-Star games reward? A more comprehensive body of work that includes previous seasons, or just the first 90 games of the current season?

Truth is, I don't really care. I find the whole all-star thing to be a total bore. But a small part of me still feels that 90 games' worth of stats gets weighed too heavily when building rosters and handing out assignments.

I agree with this viewpoint pretty strongly Chuck... the ASG is just ridiculous, with 32 players a side and puzzling choices. I don't see how, subjectively, Roy isn't the better pitcher of the two on the whole, when factoring in track record, but don't know how much weight to give that. I admit I would have liked to see Doc start the game, but as Alex pointed out to me the other day, if Doc doesn't the odds of him pitching 2 innings decrease, which is probably for the best.

The selection of Lee does point to the fact that things like durability are often overlooked in favour of flashier stats like wins or ERA, though it was Francona's choice and I would imagine he knows how good Halladay is...

Lost faith in the ASG years ago, when Nomar Garciaparra was the leading vote-getter at shortstop in a season where he had yet to play a game.

Maybe Francona wants Halladay to be well rested for the Jays' series against Tampa Bay. We'll have to sound the conspiracy sirens if Kazimir gets two innings and Halladay doesn't pitch at all.

Anyone know why Santana didn't make the NL roster and why Brian Wilson did? It can't be a case of an 8-7 record not standing up to 25 saves, can it? If so, then the NL deserves to lose for that reason alone.

Hey Magpie, go and see a competent chiropractor to get that stiff neck fixed.

Where have you been living all these years,..................under a rock????? Surely somebody must have told you that this was not only the best way, but the only way to fix such problems.

Anyone know why Santana didn't make the NL roster and why Brian Wilson did?

I guess Clint Hurdle prefers Good Vibrations to Black Magic Woman.  I like them both myself.

Frustrating first half.

The Jays have better pitching (era) AND better hitting (ops) than the LA Angels - and they have the best record in baseball.

Maybe Francona wants Halladay to be well rested for the Jays' series against Tampa Bay. We'll have to sound the conspiracy sirens if Kazimir gets two innings and Halladay doesn't pitch at all.

Indicating that the spirit of Sparky Anderson is alive and well!

The discussion got me curious as to how Halladay and Lee had fared against the Red Sox: Lee is 2-3, 4.91 and Doc is 10-11, 4.66 - Boston is the only AL team with a winning record against him.

I don't really mind - it usually goes to the guy having the best first half. I thought the main reason Doc might get the call because Francona was going to give him the start in 2005 before Kevin Mench... But it's no big deal.Mark Buehrle was worthy then, Cliff Lee is worthy now.

Chiropractors have never done anything for me, and neither has massage - although sometimes you put up with the massage because you like the masseuse. I've decided for now to try really hard to leave the damn thing alone, and try to adopt better posture. I am reminded, for some reason, of the Beverly Hillbillies, when Jed let it slip one day that Granny Clampett had a cure for the common cold. Works every time, they said. Mr Dysdale was quite excited - visions of riches dancing in his head. And Jed explained: "Yep, after taking her medicine, in two or three weeks you'll be good as new."

The key word is "competent." Keep looking because there are plenty of them out there; believe me, you'll be glad you did.

You're welcome

Cool Standings gives the Jays a 4.9% chance of making the playoffs.  That sounds about right.  Well... without Vernon and McGowan and possibly Burnett, 4.9% may be pretty optimistic.

If the Jays could go on one of those second-half runs that the A's are famous for, then who knows, but it seems unlikely with this crew.  Let's hope that J.P. gets something decent for A.J.

Baseball Reference's PI is free this week.  So, if you've got a burning desire to try to find comps for Shaun Marcum or Adam Lind, now's the time.

Hey Magpie, go and see a competent chiropractor to get that stiff neck fixed. . . . Surely somebody must have told you that this was not only the best way, but the only way to fix such problems.

At the risk of offending canuckiwi (obviously a chiropractor), I'll suggest that chiropracty is the biggest scam foisted upon the public since phrenology.  Don't go near a chiropractor, especially for a neck problem--something for which their track-record is seriously flawed.  Seriously, seriously flawed.  Subluxations!  Two toads and an eye of newt will do more for you, Magpie. Properly prepared, of course.  (350 degree oven about 45 minutes should do it.)

Here's an article in the Globe about Halladay's frustration with the team's performance:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080714.wspthalladay14/BNStory/GlobeSports

It certainly doesn't sound like he's hell bent on leaving, but hard not to be paranoid about the prospect just the same.

It certainly doesn't sound like he's hell bent on leaving, but hard not to be paranoid about the prospect just the same.

Look at the next wave of pitchers to be admitted to the Hall of Fame. How many have spent their entire career with just one team? I can think of Smoltz. Is there anyone else?

I don't believe that Halladay is actually tracking at a HoF pace (he'll have to dazzle throughout the entirety of his 30s), but I use that as the benchmark to illustrate how rare the one-team thing is, even for tier 1 pitchers.

I imagine there was a time that Red Sox Nation could not fathom Clemens ever leaving Boston, letting alone playing for three more teams.

It sounds like Roy Halladay is just as frustrated with the direction of this organization as we all are. Rogers is capable of spending more money on this team, and hopefully he will do so in the future. Of course, you also need a competent GM to spend that money in the right areas...

It's also good to know Roy still has a burning desire to win a World Series, I wouldn't have expected anything less from him. Hopefully he's able to do it here, as opposed to elsewhere, but he shouldn't feel obligated to stay with a bad team his entire career. I do wonder about how he'll react to the AJ Burnett trade that's coming in the next few weeks, though.

I was only half paying attention, but it sounded like during Justin Morneau's introduction at the start of the home run derby that the announcer said something like " despite being from Canada, Morneau is an all-star"... did anyone else catch that?

natan, i didn't catch that.. I had the tv on mute. However undiplomatically that was said, he does have a point, how many canadian born all-stars have their been? Probably fewer than from one "city" in the Dominican. There aren't all that many canadian players in MLB.

I wouldn't blame Halladay one bit, if at the end of his contract, he packs up his stuff and moves to another team. He has been more patient than almost any other player of his caliber has been and the Jays just keep being the same mediocre team each season. A big thanks to JP for turning this organization into a disaster. Even if Halladay didn't vent a little his frustration, I thought that it was time to deal him because his value wouldn't be higher than it is now, this team will not have a shot at the playoffs for at least the next 3 or 4 years, and the Jays would be better off facing these facts and dismantle the team. The first step would be to fire JP and that can't happen soon enough for me.

More on Halladay and his frustration: http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/2008/07/14/halladay_jays_mediocrity/

"At the risk of offending canuckiwi (obviously a chiropractor), I'll suggest that chiropracty is the biggest scam foisted upon the public since phrenology"

It was, until this whole "natural food" craze erupted...

FYI that's the exact same Canadian Press article as the globe link posted previously.

Dewey (and I'm sorry for the off-topic start to my post) it doesn't sound like you know a great deal about chiropractic.  It is not for everyone but is greatly helpful to many.  My long-standing, debilitating neck problems were solved for good in three visits.  You are much, much more likely to die as a result of a run of the mill hospital visit than you are likely to suffer a stroke from a neck adjustment. (very rare indeed)

As for Halladay, he's been my favourite player for a long time - unlike a number of the players who have come and gone in recent years, Halladay gives it his all every single outing.  Even on those occasions where he doesn't really have it, it is plainly apparent that he will do anything to win.  Ideally, I'd obviously like him to stay for his entire career but if the Jays stay on their current track part of me would like to see him go somewhere that will give him a chance to be rewarded with a championship.

 

 

Love Batter's Box to death, but there simply are no easy answers at this point.  As cool as it is to chat anonymously with a bunch of smart people whose opinions you normally respect, please everyone admit that at this point you would secretly take pleasure in turning out the lights out letting your fists fly in whichever direction the Good Lord directed them.

everyone admit that at this point you would secretly take pleasure in turning out the lights, letting your fists fly in whichever direction the Good Lord directed them.

No, not really. But then again - it's not my problem, not my life, not my work or my livelihood. If J.P. Ricciardi feels that way, I completely understand. Not to mention John Gibbons. And Roy Halladay. And Vernon Wells. And Bruce Walton.

I wouldn't mind having a more interesting team to write about, a more successful team to cheer for... But ain't no thang.

Oh, and I always figured by the time I found the right chiropractor, it probably wouldn't be hurting anymore. An attitude I have applied to probably far too many things in my life, I admit.

What? I know he's only 8-7 but he has a 2.84 ERA and he's still Johan freakin Santana, gearing up for a big second half. An all-star three years running since he won his first Cy Young thanks to a big second half.

So now he's just going to be at home, lying in bed.

Just like Brian Wilson did.

Oh well. Brian Wilson isn't a tenth of the pitcher that Johan is. It's a matter of instinct, conditioning and fact.

I can't believe they would send a cook there ahead of the Johan. One should not ever mess with the Johan like this.

Wilner's thoughts on Halladay not getting selected and his frustrated comments later in the day:

Oh, and a note about media day.  It’s shameful that Terry Francona selected Cliff Lee as the starter for the American League, but worse that he said it was because “nobody measured up to Cliff” and that Lee “has been the most outstanding starting pitcher in the league.”  That’s a complete load of crap.  At the very least, it’s highly debatable, and the argument could be made pretty easily that Roy Halladay is having a better year.

In the scrums afterwards, most of the Toronto media swooped in on Halladay, who said he wasn’t disappointed not to be named the starter, and went on to talk about his future in Toronto.  He reiterated that he doesn’t want to be the final piece to any puzzle, nor does he want to be in a situation where they might win regardless of his presence.  He said that he would prefer A.J. Burnett not be traded, but that he has faith in J.P. Ricciardi.  He also credited the Tampa Bay Rays for doing what the Jays haven’t been able to do for years, which is to capitalize when the Yankees or Red Sox show vulnerability.  Halladay said that it’s too early to turn the page on this season, but seemed resigned to the fact that the Jays weren’t going to be in it.  Shi Davidi of the Canadian Press went back for more when I went to hit up Justin Morneau, Carlos Quentin, Ian Kinsler and others, and his story is bound to be pretty good.

Mike and Geoff, good work with the Carlos Santana, Beachboys and BNL references re Santana vs. Wilson. I was going to suggest that Clint Hurdle obviously prefers Pet Sounds to Met Sounds.

In his comments to the media yesterday, Halladay made an intriguing comment about the difference between Gibby and Cito, but I wish I knew exactly what he meant.  He said Gaston has brought "accountability" to the team.  This might be significant, but can anyone suggest what Doc is driving at?  Does he mean that Gibbons was allowing players to get away with poor performances?  Does he mean that Cito is pushing harder on those who fail to perform up to standards?

Carlos Santana? What does the Dodgers prospect have to do with anything?

I have to agree with you China Fan, very intriguing comments from Doc comparing Gibbons and Cito.

The Star:

"I like a lot of the changes Cito's made," Halladay offered. "I loved having Gibby. With Cito, I think there's a little bit more accountability. There's a good communication there and the players respect Cito and I also think they feel accountable. I like that change and hopefully that's something that helps us go in the right direction."

And from the CP story:

"I don't know what it is that's going (to make it) click," said Halladay. "Obviously I'd love to have Gibby but with Cito there's a little bit more accountability for some guys and he talks to them individually, good or bad and I think that's helpful. I think there's a good communication there.

"Players, I think they respect Cito and they also feel accountable. I like that change and hopefully that's something that helps us go in that right direction."


It should also be said that during a post game interview about a week ago Lind similarly said that Cito talks to all the players and this approach has helped in his recent success.

Over the past couple of seasons theres been quite a bit of talk about the Jays clubhouse. These comments from Halladay suggest there was likely something to the notion of a divided room. I have to give the Jays a lot of credit keeping it so quiet. Maybe Hillenbrand wasn't so wrong.

Clearly Gibbons should have been let go at the end of last season.

Halladay made an intriguing comment about the difference between Gibby and Cito, but I wish I knew exactly what he meant.

I think Halladay is clever enough to not say anything too controversial or candid. He did let leak his general sentiments of frustration, which I imagine was as far as he was prepared to go and certainly more than we are accustomed to hearing from the man. While he seems to be a fairly thoughtful and intelligent fellow, I don't see him as a shrewd wordsmith whose statements warrant deconstruction and the parsing for subtext.

Cito does seem to be getting more visible respect from the players. There was a quote from Overbay a couple weeks ago about playing for a manager/coaches who'd "been there", successful in the majors as both players and coaches. Everyone always seemed to like Gibbons, but I can't recall many players praising him.

Which may not mean anything, as it could be a general sort of "out with the old, in with the new, change of pace" sort of thing. It'll be interesting to see if it lasts.

Chuck, I agree that Halladay is intelligent enough to choose his words carefully.  He chose the word "accountability" and I don't think he chose the word accidentally.   He is alluding to something that Cito is doing better than Gibbons, and I'm curious to know what he meant.  Halladay was candid enough to admit his frustrations, and I suspect he was being candid in his implicit criticism of Gibbons too.   I don't this was a random or meaningless comment by Doc.  He's one of the Jays who can be counted upon to weigh his words carefully and to have some substance and meaning to his comments.  If we know what Doc meant, it might help us understand whether Cito can turn around this team from the losing record that Gibbons posted.

The mention here had me thinking, where is the mighty Shea these days? It appears he has joined the Revolution.

No, he's not joined Jays fans on a quest to behead Gibby. A quick search on Google News tells us he's found a home in the Independent League.

And he does plan on returning to the majors once again. Question is, will he return before Barry Bonds and Rickey Henderson, or after?

My sense with Gibbons was that by and large he was trying to stay out of his players' way. He was upbeat and encouraging and a good guy to play for. And if you were a pitcher who screwed up on him a couple of times you didn't pitch much for a while. But I didn’t sense that he was a guiding force, or that he actively demanded more from his players than they were willing to give.

I base that on nothing other than my read of his quotes and his personality.

With Cito, the impression is different. He's here because something was clearly going wrong. He's identified some things that the players were actually doing wrong, in terms of their approach at the plate, and he's communicating with the players it seems regularly to communicate what they should be doing better. So in that sense he's both a guiding force, and someone who's demanding more. That's how I read "accountability" -- here's what you're supposed to do. Are you doing it?

Some number crunching from Chris Dial at BB-ref.

The Jays' OPD:
C - Barajas  4.9
1B - Overbay  1.2
2B - Hill  -5.8
SS - Scutaro  6.5
3B - Rolen  15.7 (11th in the AL)
LF - Stairs  -1.5
LF - Stewart  -8.9
CF - Wells  -5.3
RF - Rios  -2.8

Josh Kalk has a very nice pitch fx analysis on multi-inning relief appearances in today's THT.

A pleasant update on the Halladay thing:

http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080715.wsptjays0715/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/home

The second opinion on McGowan's shoulder confirms that surgery is not required.

Re: Chris Dials OPD numbers.....

Each position has approx. 3 players at 10 or above, first base and third base have higher values.

The Jays have only one player with a 10+, an 75% of Rolen's value is his defense.  The Jays have several players with negative numbers.

Well Halladay was on with Jamie Campbell to open the allstar coverage. Halladay explained that maybe his remarks were taken the wrong way. What he meant was that it more on the players than the organization to be successful.

Ouch, that was an aweful clumsy juggling of interests act.

Jamie Campbell just did a short interview with Halladay in the AS pregame show, and he basically down played a lot of what he was quoted as having said yesterday.  He said that he meant more that the players needed to figure out how to win, not that it was the fault of the organization.  The whole thing seems a bit like damage control to me, but yeah.

Re: Jeff Blair's article

Paul Godfrey sure knows how to work the PR of a business.

I don't suppose anything Godfrey says about Halladay actually matters considering he will probably be gone in a year or two anyway when he goes to start working full-time on getting a NFL team in the city.

"A pleasant update on the Halladay thing:"

Not really. Comparing Halladay to Jeter is fairly depressing. Halladay is about hard work, humility and decency. Jeter is about hollywood hype and horse....

Halladay I would hold up to my kids. Jeter I would not. (and for a lot of us that still matters when we see an adult making 10 million+ a year playing a kids game.)

Anyway, at least Godfrey finally got one thing right: "[Halladay's] a role model. To be quite honest, the things he said [Monday] were just Roy expressing the opinions and concerns he, I and a lot of people have with respect to the way the club has functioned in the last few years."

Halladay's words were still pretty much open to interpretation, as is evidenced by the "parsing" going on here. But even viewed in the harshest light, what he had to say can be viewed as only a mild criticism. How can he not be frustrated with the way the team has performed? Granted, the Jays don't have the payroll to just go out and buy a contender like their most obvious AL East rivals do, but they have made a number of roster moves and added quite a bit to their payroll over the past couple of seasons - and we've seen the results that all those moves and all that money has produced.

I've got to admit, I've been baffled by some of JP's decisions. There hasn't seemed to be a truly cohesive plan behind his roster changes, but I've always tried to give him the benefit of the doubt. I mean, he has limitations in what he can spend and who is available to be dealt - it's easy enough to identify what positions need to be upgraded, but it's a whole other matter to do so given the constantly changing market for available players. The sheer number of players that have occupied the left side of the infield alone shows a bit of indecisiveness - but I say that with no insight as to their impact on the clubhouse...though I was certainly surprised to see Hudson moved to acquire another 3rd baseman when the club seemed pretty well stocked up there - but that's a discussion that's had it's day. In retrospect, Hill has proven to be a lot more capable than I thought he'd be at 2nd, Glaus was certainly an upgrade at 3rd, and ultimately Shea netted a quality arm in the bullpen.

Sorry, I got off on a bit of a tangent there - I only meant to illustrate my lack of understanding (and I guess lack of support) of some of JP's moves. It just seemed (at times) that he was addressing minor concerns while letting larger gaps go unfilled. Again, though, that was what it seemed like to me - and I should point out that I'm sitting in a city with no major league team. I'd gladly take offers to manage a big-league club, but somehow I think I lack the necessary experience.

Back to topic - as much as I love the Jays and love having Roy on the mound every 5 starts, I have to say that if ti became obvious that he'd never get a ring with this team I'd be more than happy to see him go to a contender. Even if it was in the same division. I can't imagine a scenario where I'd actively cheer for the Yankees, but if Halladay was wearing pinstripes in the postseason, I'd be forced to cheer for them. Or at least for him. He's been simply fantastic as a player and as a person for his whole career, I can't think of anyone (other than Ted Williams, though that ship has sailed) that I'd rather see win a championship. Obviously, I would prefer that he won it with the Jays, but no matter where it happened I'd be happy to see Roy get his ring.

There's always lots of comments about JP's confused "plans."

I think the answer is fairly simple and straight forward. He has a plan - say Glaus at third.  All of a sudden Glaus wants out and Rolen is available - BANG - you make the move. The Prime Minister is signed for two years at SS. All of a sudden Eckstein is available cheap(ish) - BANG - you make the move. JP can no more "plan" who will be available, and when, than a Dog will know which fire hydrant he'll want to *iss on tomorrow. A lot of being a GM is seeing an opportunity and - BANG - making the move. He'd be a losy GM if he replied , "Ya I had a chance to make the team better but it conflicted with my "plan."

"Plans" are greatly over rated - just ask Stalin.

No battle plan survives contact with the enemy
-Helmuth von Moltke