Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Just for the Hall of it ...

We've done this before, but with Hall of Fame inductions taking place today (yay Goose!) let's take a look at players today who could someday earn Cooperstown induction.

We'll start with the American League ...

I spent a good 12 minutes doing an "exhaustive," completely unscientific scan of current big league rosters to see who might belong on this list. Keep in mind that I have absolutely no inclination to suggest that more than a small percentage of those listed actually will make it to the Hall. And my methodology (or lack thereof) almost demands that I will have missed at least one possible/probable candidate. So jump in and give me a virtual smack across the chops as you demand "How could you possibly forget/include ..."

Here we go ... hang on tight!

Notes:

Players I think are absolute slam dunks re indicated with an asterisk (*). There are just seven such players currently on an AL roster.
I did not include managers, umpires or executives, but feel free to "nominate" someone for this list if you feel so inclined.
Players with minimal service time (sorry Evan Longoria, Chris Davis and Joba Chamberlain) are not listed here under "The Fred Lynn Rule."
There are two lines listed, those players I think could have a legitimate shot and those who I considered for about two seconds then didn't include in the first group -- these are tagged as "Missing the Cut."
Just two teams have no players on either line, not even missing the cut. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals!
Two teams had more than any others did on those two lines combined: NYY (thanks to the media influence, in part) with nine and DET with eight. But NYY had more "miss the cut" than DET, though given this year's performance, we may have been a little generous to the Tiger pitching staff.
Teams are listed in current order of AL divisional standings.

AL EAST

TBR: Troy Percival
Missing the cut: Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton
BOS: Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, Manny Ramirez*, David Ortiz
Missing the cut: Jon Papelbon
NYY: Mike Mussina, Mariano Rivera*, Andy Pettitte, Derek Jeter*, Alex Rodriguez*
Missing the cut: Chien-Ming Wang, Jorge Posada, Jason Giambi, Robinson Cano
TOR: Roy Halladay
Missing the cut: Scott Rolen
BAL: NONE

AL CENTRAL

CHW: Mark Buehrle, Jim Thome
Missing the cut: Javier Vazquez
MIN: Joe Nathan, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau
KC: NONE
DET: Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers, Ivan Rodriguez*, Miguel Cabrera, Gary Sheffield
Missing the cut: Todd Jones, Magglio Ordonez
CLE: Grady Sizemore
Missing the cut: Cliff Lee, Jake Westbrook, Victor Martinez

AL WEST

LAA: Francisco Rodriguez, Vladimir Guerrero*
Missing the cut: Garret Anderson, Torii Hunter
TEX: Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton
Missing the cut: Kevin Millwood, Hank Blalock
OAK: Frank Thomas*
Missing the cut: Keith Foulke, Eric Chavez
SEA: Ichiro Suzuki*
Missing the cut: Adrian Beltre

Bauxites, over to you ... who's missing? Who's listed improperly or at least should/shouldn't "make the cut"? Your call!

Posted by Mick Doherty on Sunday, July 27 2008 @ 05:10 PM EDT.

Just for the Hall of it ... | 24 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Magpie - Sunday, July 27 2008 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#189562) #

I think all your slam dunks - Ramirez, Rodriguez, Rivera, Jeter, Rodriguez, Guerrero, Thomas, Suzuki - are all pretty much slam dunks.

The one that strikes me strangest is a guy you have missing the cut - Carl Crawford. If he blows out his knee and is out of baseball in two years, sure. But of all the guys who still have to do most of their resume building, he's the one guy whose chances I like best - better than Hamilton or Verlander or Cabrera or Morneau. Better than Sizemore, in fact. I think Crawford's going to finish up with 3200 hits, 1700 runs scored and close to 1000 stolen bases. He's already got 1100 hits (okay, he needs one more) and he's still 26 years old.

92-93 - Sunday, July 27 2008 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#189563) #

How on earth is Jeter a slam dunk, but Posada misses the cut? Makes no sense to me.

And while I can appreciate you including Rogers for no reason other than longevity (and yet leave off Wakefield), Jeremy Bonderman has absolutely zero business being mentioned. For years, the American media's obsession with him while ignoring much better, young pitchers has mystified me.

Magpie - Sunday, July 27 2008 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#189564) #

How on earth is Jeter a slam dunk, but Posada misses the cut?

Probably because one of those two guys - and it ain't Posada - has a very realistic chance to become just the fourth player in history to score 2000 runs (only seven guys have done that) and knock out 3500 hits. Ty Cobb, Pete Rose, and Henry Aaron are the only players in history who have done that. That's where Derek Jeter is headed.

Jeter may not make it all the way to 2000 and 3500 - he needs at least another five years, and figuring there will be decline and injury maybe six or seven. In seven years, he'll be 41. But he doesn't need to do all that just to get into the Hall. He's already the slam dunk of all slam dunks. He goes in if he retires today.

Mick Doherty - Sunday, July 27 2008 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#189565) #

Look, I don't think Bonderman is on a Hall of Fame path by any stretch of the imagination right now. But he did have 56 big league wins before the start of his Age 25 season -- for comparison's sake, Roy Halladay (who also hasn't earned a * at least yet, certainly) had 18.

There are no Hall of Famers on Bonderman's Most Similar list OR on his Most Similar Through Age 24 list, but the latter at least has Javier Vazquez, who I think is deserving of his missing-the-cut status above, but who, if he stays healthy, could well put up career numbers that earn a plaque. That "healthy" caveat squared or cubed for the younger Bonderman, of course.

As for the other stuff, on Jeter -- what Magpie said (only he said it better than I could have). On Posada, well his own most similar (career) is Javy Lopez, not a Hall of Fame candidate, really; and through Age 35, it's Carlton Fisk -- a Hall of Famer, sure, but he caught regularly until he was about 70 and Posada's days as a regular catcher may be over.

92-93 - Sunday, July 27 2008 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#189567) #

I absolutely hate looking at counting stats. I don't think the Hall should reward longevity as much as it does shorter periods of absolute dominance. And the point wasn't to question Jeter's candidacy, rather just me wondering why Posada missed the cut. Jeter has had a great career, and is sure to make it in, but all those goals are too high, he is already declining and doesn't have the benefit other players have had over the last decade to extend his career at a high level of play.

Position obviously has to be accounted for when looking at stats, and the toll that catching takes on the body is tremendous. Judging him up against his old-time peers...

Johnny Bench .267/.342/.476 OPS+ 124
Carlton Fisk .269/.341/.457 OPS+ 117
Yogi Berra .285/.348/.482 OPS+ 125
Roy Campanella .276/.360/.500 OPS+ 124
Gary Carter .262/.335/.439 OPS+ 115
Mickey Cochrane .320/.419/.478 OPS+ 128

Jorge Posada .277/.380/.477 OPS+ 124

And again, I'm not pining for Posada to be up there with the same * that Jeter has, but it's silly to me that one has the * and the other misses the cut when they have had pretty similar careers with equal value to their team.

Magpie - Sunday, July 27 2008 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#189568) #

I absolutely hate looking at counting stats.

Yeah, but Hall of Fame voters do! And Jeter's advantage over Posada there is simply too huge. Never mind the hits and the runs, Jeter's got more RBIs than Posada! And he hits leadoff or second! And he's almost three years younger. It's too, too much. There's no comparison.

Posada's real problem when it comes to the Hall is that while his offense stacks up very nicely indeed against the other Hall catchers you mention, his defense doesn't. And his reputation as a defensive player is even worse than Jeter's, who also plays a defender's position. Jeter makes up for his non-typical shortstop-quality defense by being one of the greatest hitters ever to play the position. Posada isn't. (Mike Piazza has that approach covered when it comes to the catchers.)

92-93 - Sunday, July 27 2008 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#189570) #

"Yeah, but Hall of Fame voters do! And Jeter's advantage over Posada there is simply too huge. Never mind the hits and the runs, Jeter's got more RBIs than Posada! And he hits leadoff or second! And he's almost three years younger. It's too, too much. There's no comparison."

Agree to disagree then. If you are going to say things like "Jeter's got more RBIs than Posada!" there's simply nothing I can say to make you change your mind. Here are the facts :

.13 R/PA, 0.04 HR/PA, 0.15 RBI/PA Posada
.16 R/PA, 0.02 HR/PA, 0.11 RBI/PA Jeter

There IS a comparison, unless you are obsessed with counting stats. In fact, the comparison is pretty spot-on.

Quwyetr - Sunday, July 27 2008 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#189571) #

I would not paint any bauxites if any at all of valuing counting stats over the percentages when it comes to evaluating player performance given a fairly close comparison in opportunities. However, this is about the hall, and it is indeed very true that the voters love their counting stats. So it would not be fair to argue against using counting stats as consideration for the hall when the voters put them at such high regard. Personally, and I am sure most of you will agree, I would much rather see hall induction based upon stats that are more under the control of the player rather than the teams they were on. But that is an arguement for another time.

As for the list, I think some of the players listed are on the almost list too prematurely such as Papelbon and Bonderman. But then again, one can either argue for many other similar players to be on the same list, or vice versa. At such a point it is much too hard to project hall inclusion for a player.

AWeb - Sunday, July 27 2008 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#189572) #

Johnny Damon merits a mention, with over 2200 hits so far. He'd be a counting stat inductee, but as Magpie says, that is what many voters look at. Jeter is perceived as a superior player to Posada, and the counting stats will back that up. That doesn't make it true, but it does make HoF induction more likely for Jeter. Jeter at SS does seem like a slam dunk, and Posada should at least make the upper line.

With Rolen's power gone, I think it's fair to figure he has little HoF shot - he's not going to get the big counting numbers, and defense only goes so far (only middle infielders make the Hall for primarily defensive reasons, that I recall anyway). Rolen would have made the "top line" three years ago, perhaps.

Mike Green - Sunday, July 27 2008 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#189574) #

Mick's question is "who will go in?", not " who should go in?". Jeter will. Posada still might if he has a long tail of career as a DH. Michael Young won't. K-Rod is as close to a lock as is possible for a pitcher at age 26. Joe Nathan is quite a longshot; he's behind where Tom Henke was at age 32 in 1990 and Henke had quite a few good years left. Morneau won't go on merit, but conceivably could rack up enough counting stats to attract the attention of the voters.

It's way too early to even make a guess about guys like Upton, Crawford, Kinsler, and Sizemore.

CaramonLS - Sunday, July 27 2008 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#189575) #

I'd put Lackey on the "missing the cut" list.

Been a top 5 AL starter over the last 5 years, which is nothing to scoff at.

Magpie - Sunday, July 27 2008 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#189580) #

There IS a comparison

Indeed there is, although they probably shouldn't be compared to each other. They really are more or less equivalent offensive players (one has a career OPS+ of 121, single season peak of 153; the other has a career OPS+ of 124, single season peak of 154.) Both play key defensive positions, although neither do it particularly well.

But one of them is going to extend that level of production over an extra 600 games. At least. And that's real value the other guy doesn't provide.

Counting stats do get padded, of course. The all-time hits leader had absolutely no business playing first base on a regular basis for a contender at the time he broke the record, but he was the team's manager and he was chasing the record, so into the lineup he went. But they do generally indicate quality over an extended period of time. Career length is not to be sneezed at. It's why Fred McGriff is a viable Hall candidate and Cecil Fielder isn't.

One of the most significant numbers on any player's career log appears to have nothing to do with a player's value, and so no one ever considers it. But Games Played tells us quite a bit about any player's value.

Mick Doherty - Monday, July 28 2008 @ 01:01 AM EDT (#189581) #

Yes, perhaps I should have been clearer in the intro -- this is a "will" list, not a "should" list.

I actually almost added Damon to the long list of Yankees, and probably should have given his counting stats and the potential for 3000 hits, but I don't think he gets in unless the Yankees win a ring with him in the lineup.

I don't think Michael Young is terribly likely either, Mike, but you are positively definitive about it.. May I ask why? Best case, Young -- who is on pace to have his sixth consecutive 200-hit season in 2008 -- could end up with 2500 hits, 250 homers and All-Star appearances at three positions (he's already been there at 2B and SS and will presumably move to 3B whenever the kid SS the Rangers have, Andrus, is ready to go).

I think he's, for instance, a far likelier candidate right now than Josh Hamilton or anyone else the Rangers can run out there.

Magpie - Monday, July 28 2008 @ 01:19 AM EDT (#189582) #

It occurs to me that all three of the Texas guys have a similar problem - they got off to a late start, which puts a lot of pressure on them to maintain high quality well into what should be their Decline Phase. When that time comes (and it waits for no man, not even Julio Franco, though it took its time with him!) - well, they'll need to do more than just pad their numbers. They'll need to still be piling them on. Kinsler's 26, and this is the first time he's going to have 500 at bats in a season. Ditto for Hamilton, except Hamilton is already 27. And even Michael Young got started a little late - his first full season was at age 25, and he'll be 32 later this year.

Magpie - Monday, July 28 2008 @ 01:26 AM EDT (#189583) #

Missing The Cut (for now):

KC - Zack Greinke (but if they ever, ever put a real team behind him. I like him better than Bonderman, going forward.)

BAL - Nick Markakis (he may have something to say about this all by himself. I like him quite a bit more than Upton, whose only 9 months younger.)

I just don't want anybody feeling left out!

Mike Green - Monday, July 28 2008 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#189593) #

Mick, you're right. Michael Young could make it. 3,000 hits for a shortstop will do it, no matter what the context and no matter whether he moves to another position shortly.

zeppelinkm - Monday, July 28 2008 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#189594) #

I think Thome deserves to have a little * next to his name!

To consider:

17th all time in OPS. That A-Rod guy? 18th.
34th all time in OPS+. Ahead of notables such as A-Rod, Guerrero, Chipper Jones, Reggie Jackson...

And his counting stats aren't so bad either!

He's 53rd all time in RBI's, and another 100 would move him into the top 40.
He's 16th all time in HR's, and another 25 will move him into the top 12. (He's got 526, and counting!).
Not that voters really look at walks, but he's 15th all time there as well.

What does a man need to do to become a lock? I would think he fits the description!

Is his defence that bad?

It almost looks like Thome's been overshadowed quite a bit in his career... 5 all-star appearences, but he didn't make the team once during his 3 year run of absolute pitcher anniliation from 2001 - 2003 where he belted 148 HR, had 373 RBI, scored 313 runs, and averaged roughly a 170 OPS+. Talk about tough love...

Chuck - Monday, July 28 2008 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#189604) #

34th all time in OPS+. Ahead of notables such as A-Rod, Guerrero, Chipper Jones, Reggie Jackson...

I'm not sure the voters care much about walks so OBP and, by extension OPS, don't carry a ton of weight. Counting stats rule the day and, of course, blank ink.

I think that many of the first baseman in the same family -- Thome, Thomas, Delgado, McGriff, McGwire -- have always gone undervalued unless they have put up impressive counting stats or big batting averages. The walks they draw tend to get underplayed or entirely ignored. (Aside: In yesterday's broadcast, Pat Tabler noted that Overbay leads the team in walks. He found it unusual for a power hitting first baseman to do so. He felt that the big walkers would be outfielders or "scrappy guys".)

Is his defence that bad?

He was never much of a glove man at either infield corner, but I think it will be the fact that he will have DHed so much that will weigh so heavily against him, not so much the quality of his defense when he did play defense.

Mike Green - Monday, July 28 2008 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#189605) #

Aside: In yesterday's broadcast, Pat Tabler noted that Overbay leads the team in walks. He found it unusual for a power hitting first baseman to do so. He felt that the big walkers would be outfielders or "scrappy guys".

Power-hitting first basemen drawing walks? Never heard of such a thing before!

Aside aside: Lyle Overbay is a "power-hitting first baseman"? That would be nice, if true.

Magpie - Monday, July 28 2008 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#189610) #

[Tabler] found it unusual for a power hitting first baseman to [lead the team in walks]

Oh dear. While Tabler was an active player, Mark McGwire, Frank Thomas, Eddie Murray, Will Clark, Keith Hernandez, and Jack Clark each led the league in walks. The closest thing to a scrappy guy would be Brett Butler and, maybe, Rickey Henderson, although there are some other outfielders - Dwight Evans, Brian Downing.

And in Toronto, a first baseman usually leads the team in walks. Mayberry (3 times), Upshaw (2 times), McGriff (3 times), Olerud (5 times), Delgado (8 times.) The only semi-scrappy guys would be Alomar (1992) and Zaun (2005); the only outfielders are Moseby (3 times) and Velez (as an OF in 1977, a DH in 1981).

Tabler has a reputation for being one of the genuinely good people in the game, a truly nice guy, and all I can say is he must be.

Chuck - Monday, July 28 2008 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#189620) #

Tabler has a reputation for being one of the genuinely good people in the game, a truly nice guy, and all I can say is he must be.

He must have the whole Simon the Likeable thing going for him.

katman - Monday, July 28 2008 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#189625) #

After the things he did in Boston, how does Curt Schilling not have a star beside his name? His stats would make him a big maybe on their own, but as Da Box has noted, reputations are made in the post Season. First Arizona, then playing a major role in ending baseball's most storied championship drought (sorry, Cubbies, but it's so). The whole bloody sock game is right up there with Reggie's 3-HR world series feat, as a game that made a legend.

He's a dead lock for the Hall of Fame, and he'll wear a Red Sox uniform. I'd give you 20:1 odds if you wanted to bet against him. $100 gets you $2000 if he's not in the Hall within 25 years of retirement.

How many people here would take that bet? Few, I suspect.

Anders - Monday, July 28 2008 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#189640) #

He's a dead lock for the Hall of Fame, and he'll wear a Red Sox uniform.

While I agree that Schilling will likely make it into the HOF (and admit there is a case, though I'm not sure which way I would lean), I don't think any player is a 'lock' these days, as Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro and perhaps Bonds and Clemens have/will show.

I'd be surprised if Schilling made it into the Hall as a Red Sock either - he started about 2 1/2 times more games for the Phillies, and also made significant contributions to the Diamondbacks. Perhaps the Hall will decide on a blank cap.

zeppelinkm - Tuesday, July 29 2008 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#189693) #

I know 1B is a "power position", but I'm still surprised people don't think Thome, who when his career ends very well could be in the top 12 for HR's for all time, is a lock! HR's are the flashiest of all the counting stats. The only active player who has a legitimate shot at passing him, IMO, is Mr. Man-Ram.

I know the OPS and OPS+ aren't looked at much by voters - I was throwing those out there for our behalf. The HR and RBI stats are for the voters. I guess it doesn't help that he was overshadowed in Cleveland by Manny and Albert for the bulk of his career.

Games played:

3B - 492
DH - 477
1B - 1101

I don't think his time at DH should hurt him, but I guess it could.

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