Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - 5 August 2008: Shoulder Woes

5 August 2008: Shoulder Woes

Doc was in control again. Jays win 6-1.

In other news Scott Rolen is going to be on a regular rest schedule to help his shoulder.

Who would have thought a player with shoulder problems who has been declining since he entered his 30s would be struggling this year at the plate?

Year	Games	Abs	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
2002	55	205	0.278	0.354	0.561	0.915
2003	154	559	0.286	0.382	0.528	0.910
2004	142	500	0.314	0.409	0.598	1.007
2005	56	196	0.235	0.323	0.383	0.706
2006	142	521	0.296	0.369	0.518	0.887
2007	112	392	0.265	0.331	0.398	0.729
2008	84	303	0.254	0.347	0.409	0.756

You could probably show 2002-2007 to someone that knows nothing about baseball and say here's the past 6 years. Based on that what would you expect for 2008? And they probably would have come up with something closer to actuality than Ricciardi.

Rolen is a little bit below the three year average from 2005-2007 (.774 OPS in the NL). That's probably a safe bet going forward, and probably declining as the years go on.

At the time the trade was made I wasn't too happy about it either. From January of this year:

My initial reaction is the Jays are trading for the:
Worse player, coming from the inferior league
Older player
Player with the more significant injury history (I'll take the foot problem over the shoulder problem)
Player with the longer contract
And on top of all of that, the Cardinals are essentially dumping Rolen because he can't get along with LaRussa. Then the Cardinals got a concession from Glaus to make the deal (whether that's a good idea is another issue).

This deal only makes sense if one thinks that Rolen can overcome his shoulder problems. I'm skeptical about that. After a strong 2006 you'd think he'd be pretty healthy coming into 2007 and yet he slugged under .400 every month except July and then had surgery again.

And remember, Ricciardi said one of the benefits of the trade was that they have Rolen for two more years (at $11 million/year) whereas they'd probably lose Glaus after this season.

Between Rolen, Overbay and Stairs, the players occupying power positions on a typical team, the Jays have 26 HRs and a .410 Slg% in 284 games this season. That's 5 less than Adam Dunn has by himself. That's probably the biggest reasons the Jays hover around .500 - they're a team that's made up of an ace and a lot of complimentary players.

Posted by Pistol on Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 09:10 AM EDT.

5 August 2008: Shoulder Woes | 37 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#190097) #

Rolen delivered a little less offence than I expected, but his defence has been excellent. The overall package is not worth $11 million, but then he's not the only player that you can say that of (Ryan, Burnett).

There are many ways to structure a ballclub. Good defence, a series of league-average hitters, a good rotation (with a top-notch ace), a solid bullpen and a little luck can lead to a World Series victory. This club was not far from that, but a few obvious mistakes were made, beginning in left-field for the first 3 months.

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#190098) #

Off-topic ...

I see on the wire this morning that the Rockies called up P Steven Register . I know nothing about the kid, but it occurs to me, shouldn't they now go out of their way to acquire Kevin Cash? Yes, that'd provide us with a battery-operating Cash-Register.

Thank yew, thank yew verra much ...

Chuck - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#190103) #

Two headlines at RotoWorld that could either be much ado about nothing or significant stories in the impending AL East pennant race.

"Chamberlain scheduled for MRI"
"David Ortiz feels 'click' in wrist"

Anders - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#190105) #

Jim Caple has a reasonably good take on the lunacy of the save over at ESPN.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#190106) #

Box roster alumnus Scott Lucas earned a BP mention for what sounds like a great event for Newberg nation. Unfortunately, the game that the Newbergites took in was the Ranger comeback against David Purcey.

King Ryan - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#190107) #

Thank you for linking that, Anders.

That's the first column I have read at ESPN in years, and it was a good one.

Magpie - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#190108) #

Jim Caple has a reasonably good take on the lunacy of the save

I would describe it as an excellent rant, myself!

Managers feel the need to please their closers -- and their closer's agents -- by getting them cheap saves to pad their stats and their bank accounts.

Word.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#190109) #

If you were minded to, you could ameliorate the situation by changing the definition. A save would be either:

pitching the last 3 innings or more of a victory
finishing a game after entering with the tying run at the plate or on base, and pitching an inning or more, or
finishing a game after entering with the tying run on base and pitching less than an inning.

This "on-deck" circle business is for wusses. If the closers want to come on and claim a save for preventing a comeback with the tying run in the on-deck circle, let their entrance music be something by Burt Bacharach or Barry Manilow.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#190110) #

One of the costs of the shorter stints encouraged by the save rule is the 7 man pen and the consequent short benches. Wouldn't it have been nice to have someone like Josh Phelps to DH against lefties (.296/.364/.500 career against portsiders and still hitting at age 30) rather than David Eckstein, or to pinch-hit against LOOGies? Anyone remember Benny Ayala?

Chuck - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#190111) #

Without having thought this out at all, is there any metric in any sport that so dramatically drives decision-making? The save has got to top them all, no?

Managers sometimes keep starting pitchers in too long in a desperate attempt to get them their 5 innings and potential win. That is sometimes counterproductive. And of course complete games and shutouts are often sought at the team's expense.

Chuck - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#190112) #

Anyone remember Benny Ayala?

Ayala is a testament to Earl Weaver's genius. Who else would do the seemingly obvious of looking at a player's L/R splits and exploiting a pronounced platoon skill? Nowadays, the L/R breakdowns are just a few clicks away, but they weren't 25 years ago.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#190113) #

Actually it pretty much started with Branch Rickey and the hiring of Allan Roth. Roth went on to be the statistician on the Game of the Week for a while and presented all kinds of cool stuff on national television. What was most remarkable about Weaver was his ability to keep the methodical records, as well as doing the other stuff that a manager must do, like kicking dirt on the shoes of umpires or pecking at their foreheads with the bill of his cap.

TamRa - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#190114) #

Rolen delivered a little less offence than I expected, but his defence has been excellent. The overall package is not worth $11 million, but then he's not the only player that you can say that of (Ryan, Burnett).

I don't think it does any good to analyze what something is "worth" in a vacuum. Christian Guzman just got $8 million per and I've not seen any source complian it was a bad deal. In a world where Guzman's play is worth 8 million, Rolen's is absolutely worth 11 (ditto Ryan and Burnett)...within the context of the crazy economics of baseball, none of those men are overpad - Wells will be (unless he starts hitting like 2006 every year ) in 2010.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#190115) #

I think that it's very important. Bang for the buck is not the only thing, but no club has unlimited resources and some have greater constraint than others. If a team is committed to players who are not delivering commensurate value to salary, it regularly leads to other adverse changes in personnel.

Why was Reed Johnson let go in favour of Shannon Stewart? Talent/injury recovery appraisal may have been part of it, but the difference in their salaries probably played a role as well. Why was Frank Thomas let go? Salary, as well as playing time issues, were the key factors.

zeppelinkm - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#190116) #

After we do away with the save, how long do you think it would take to get rid of a pitchers win/loss record? Or at least win's?

Today I had a pretty good conversation with a guy at work about wins - and then the topic shifted to Halladay versus Lee and the 2008 AL Cy Young.

Compare these numbers:

ERA/IP/hits allowed/walks/K's

A) 2.58/153.2/144/22/127
B) 2.77/175.1/150/29/149

Virtually identicle. You could make a compelling case for each pitcher. I suspect some would choose A because he's got a better ERA but others still would choose B because he's given the team the same kind of performance - but also given them 20 innings more.

Now W/L:

15 - 2
13 - 8

What I would like to see, and perhaps another day when i'm not just killing time at work, would be a pitcher's expected win/loss record. Not sure how I would set this up yet - base it off runs the pitcher has received against his ERA? So every pitcher would have an expected winning % based off what they did? Seems to me like this might not really change the wins/losses a pitch has much because - in Doc's case this year - he's not getting many runs on average. Hmm, some thinking is required about how to do this.

Pistol - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#190117) #

In a world where Guzman's play is worth 8 million, Rolen's is absolutely worth 11 (ditto Ryan and Burnett)...within the context of the crazy economics of baseball

If you do things in line with everyone else you're going to be pretty average, or .500 as the case may be.

Chuck - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#190118) #

What I would like to see, and perhaps another day when i'm not just killing time at work, would be a pitcher's expected win/loss record.

That's a wheel that does not need reinventing. Several folks have taken a crack at this, including Baseball Prospectus, who have Lee at 12.0-4.9 and Halladay at 11.6.-7.4. I think Bill James has a version of this as well (if I recall from his Gold Mine book).

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#190119) #

Zep,

BP does something like that.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#190120) #

You win, Chuck.

Chuck - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#190121) #

Christian Guzman just got $8 million per and I've not seen any source complian it was a bad deal.

Actually, many writers and fans opined that the deal makes sense only if one accepts that the 30-year old Guzman with the 96 OPS+ represents the true Christian Guzman. I think he had Lasik surgery or a skill transplant or something and this is why some are willing to consider that he may have genuinely elevated his game to another level. It's difficult not to be skeptical, however.

Chuck - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#190122) #

You win, Chuck.

Yes, but there was some luck. My expected won-loss was only 0.5-0.5.

zeppelinkm - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#190123) #

Thanks, guys.

... Here's what it says about (E) wins: "Expected win record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically (this differs from how it was computed, which was a more complicated, theoretical calculation). "

Still doesn't seem right to me - ie, this formula has resulted in Doc's wins and losses decreasing. If anything, I thought his losses would go down quite a bit more then they did (which was a whopping 0.6 - cue roll eyes emoticon) .

I wonder if something simpler might provide us some interesting results - give each pitcher in the league "league average run support", and then calculate what his wins and losses would be based off of that. So if the pitcher makes 10 starts in a season and received 35 runs in total, while the league average run production was 4.5 game, give that pitcher 10 more "runs for".

All for a Cy Young for Doc...

CeeBee - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#190124) #

Off-topic ...

Thank yew, thank yew verra much ..."

Off topic as well but once again Mick, you have come up with a gem of a play :)

lexomatic - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#190125) #

zeppelin...i think you're looking for Support Neutral W/L, not expected W/L

sorry if the links posted previously were for that... i was lazy and didn't check.

Smithers - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#190128) #

Go figure - with all the talk in the thread about the ESPN article on the over-valuation of the save, Huston Street tonight gives us a chance to revel in the other 5% of games where a team is trailing when entering the 9th inning.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#190129) #

Well, it was a 1-run game, so it wasn't a "wuss save opportunity". Oddly, the damage was done by RHH against Street (who has severe platoon splits). I certainly would have pinch-hit Zaun for Barajas. Youneverknow.

Rob - Tuesday, August 05 2008 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#190130) #

And of course complete games and shutouts are often sought at the team's expense.

I disagree. I think Magpie's shown us that complete games are rare enough these days that this practice isn't detrimental. Assume the starter's done after eight. If the game's close (3-0, 2-0, 1-0), the closer often comes in. If it's not, how bad can it be for the team to leave the first guy in there? Either way, I don't think "often" is the case.

I certainly would have pinch-hit Zaun for Barajas. Youneverknow.

Once again, the Andujar Axiom crushes all other propositions. ("Friends don't let righty friends face Huston Street.")

After we do away with the save, how long do you think it would take to get rid of a pitchers win/loss record? Or at least win's?

Get rid of Win's what? Microphone? Geez...wake up, that won't happen unless there's some rebellion or intervention.

Magpie - Wednesday, August 06 2008 @ 12:00 AM EDT (#190131) #

Just from what I've observed, a manager will give a pitcher a chance for the CG or the SHO if, and only if, all the other elements are in place. Like a comfy lead and a reasonable pitch count. But only if those elements are in place - I mean, last night Cito Gaston didn't send Roy Halladay back out for the 9th inning, pitching a four-hitter and holding a five run lead. (And it made sense to me - Doc, who wasn't quite as efficient as usual, was already at 113 pitches through 8 - his career high is 126.)

As for tonight's game - geez, when John McDonald plays shortstop like that it's hard not to keep running him out there. If he could just hit a little bit.. Anyway, he ought to get a Save for tonight's game. I was already thinking "oh crap, two runs" when he turned that bases loaded shot into a double play.

I think Marco Scutaro may be running on fumes at this point. He's played all but one game in the past six weeks, and could probably use a break.

David Eckstein isn't Cito Gaston's idea of a DH, by any stretch of the imagination, but Cito can look at a stat sheet. Eckstein is still this team's best hitter against southpaws (.328/.411/.500), which is still Strange and Disturbing. But while that's the case, it's dumb not to take advantage of it. And I'm glad to see Eckstein get a chance to contribute - all this must be much more disappointing to him than Gregg Zaun's year ought to have been to him. Eckstein's been a good soldier, kept his mouth shut, and played hard when given the chance. Got to appreciate that.

Does it occur to anyone else that Rod Barajas has a skill set somewhat similar to Pat Borders? Good defender, works well with the pitchers, a RH batter with not much average or plate discipine... Barajas throws a little better, and has a little more pop.

I've been in the house for both of Scott Richmond's starts, and the guy is interesting. It's a weird story, isn't it? This 28 year old, just scuffling along in AA - he was 5-8, 4.92 at New Hampshire when they bumped him up to Syracuse. What I want to know is what happened. Because at Syracuse he went just 0-2, but with a 2.53 ERA, and struck out 31 guys in 32 IP. AAA hitters batted .210 against him. And the scouts were raving about him, which is why he got the call. And I see him, and I think here's a guy who's this close to being really useful. He's got four pitches and uses them all, but everything revolves around moving that low 90s fastball in and out, up and down. What he needs to do is get over the fact that he's dealing with major league hitters, and stop nibbling. We were talking about that a little - against Oakland tonight, Richmond was getting ahead early, and then he'd nibble rather than get the at bat over with. It didn't actually hurt him too much, but it ran up his pitch count. Jordan recalled that he was doing it the other way round in his first start - he'd nibble, fall behind, and then work to the hitters. Which is much, much more dangerous of course. But neither is recommended.

TamRa - Wednesday, August 06 2008 @ 06:27 AM EDT (#190138) #

Actually, many writers and fans opined that the deal makes sense only if one accepts that the 30-year old Guzman with the 96 OPS+ represents the true Christian Guzman. I think he had Lasik surgery or a skill transplant or something and this is why some are willing to consider that he may have genuinely elevated his game to another level. It's difficult not to be skeptical, however.

Well yeah, but I was referring to the "new and improved" Guzman when I said that.

TamRa - Wednesday, August 06 2008 @ 06:33 AM EDT (#190139) #

In a world where Guzman's play is worth 8 million, Rolen's is absolutely worth 11 (ditto Ryan and Burnett)...within the context of the crazy economics of baseball

If you do things in line with everyone else you're going to be pretty average, or .500 as the case may be.

I wasn't saying that you don't look for a under-market where you can (i.e. Rios' deal, Hill's deal, Doc's deal)....obviously winning teams are going to do that well. But there is a distinct difference in saying "I'd like to see us get the production that normally gets paid 10 or 11 million for 7 million" and saying that the guy making 11 is overpaid.

Chuck - Wednesday, August 06 2008 @ 07:22 AM EDT (#190140) #

Well yeah, but I was referring to the "new and improved" Guzman when I said that.

If Guzman were to magically give the Nationals four more years of an OPS+ of 96 with good defense at shortstop, would that not be worth $8M a year?

Chuck - Wednesday, August 06 2008 @ 07:26 AM EDT (#190141) #

Either way, I don't think "often" is the case.

You're right, "often" overstates my case. But as long as any manager ever has to rationalize giving a pitcher a chance at a complete game or shutout by saying "I think he deserved a chance to try for it", then that suggests the manager is putting the player's needs ahead of the team's.

Edmonton Marc - Wednesday, August 06 2008 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#190171) #

Pittsburgh - Arizona. Check it out.

Geoff - Wednesday, August 06 2008 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#190173) #

No sooner did Bob McCown mention it on air on his show, talking with Ashby about no-hitters that Young breaks up the perfect game and no-hit bid minutes ago.

Curious that Karstens had 2 singles and a strikeout at the plate. What's the most hits a pitcher has had in a perfect game? Has anyone batted 1.000 at the plate in a perfect game? (Of course DH games are void in this)

greenfrog - Wednesday, August 06 2008 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#190175) #

A few signs your offense is in trouble:

1. Your 8-9-1-2 hitters are Mench (OPS 692), McDonald (509), Scutaro (676) and Eckstein (714)
2. Your cleanup hitter is Overbay (career OPS against LHP: 745)
3. Barajas hitting 5th (career OPS against LHP: 699)
4. Rolen hitting 7th (in July and August this year, 15 for 88 with 1 HR)

King Ryan - Thursday, August 07 2008 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#190243) #

So...what's the major league record for bases-loaded-hit-by-pitches in a season?

Geoff - Thursday, August 07 2008 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#190249) #

Two big stories from today, not mentioned yet that I see:

Cito is coming back for 2009; says Ricciardi, "The guys like playing for him." If that's all it took, he was a shoo -in from the day he last held the job. And he should continue as manager until the day, "The guys need a new voice."
Blackouts be gone! Owners to be given an offer they can't refuse to bring some sense to blackout mess. Not sure yet if Canada is considered to be one 'geographic area' yet but there's a glimmer of hope for those who are frustrated at having no option of seeing Jays games -- on cable or internet -- and wonder if anybody cares. Baseball cares; Bob Dupuy says so.

5 August 2008: Shoulder Woes | 37 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.