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David Purcey was fantastic.


8 Innings, 11 K's, no walks and just one run given up, on a Carlos Pena homer, he's shown some good signs here and there before this season, but there's been nothing like this. He seemed to have a pretty simple plan and stuck to it - use the fastball to get ahead in the count and then go to the slider to finish them off. The Jays offense was again predictably rather less than terrific, and all Purcey's good work was for naught as the hitters couldn't get a run over against Garza (who owns the Jays hitters) and the better parts of the Rays bullpen.

WWJP:
* The Pirates would only trade Bautista for Diaz and others had moved past Diaz in the Jays catcher ranks.
* Last three weeks have shown the team he was expecting to see this year. Excited about where the team is going.
* Thinks you should read 'The last Lecture' (and he's right, it's amazing).
* [ Time out for a shouting match with some guy called Greg ]
* Two years left on the Rolen-Glaus trade - let's see how it works out.
* Janssen is a rotation candidate for next year.  If AJ is back Janssen is more likely to be in the pen.
* Asked about the reasoning for Rolen-Glaus trade: (1) Glaus didn't want to be here, and hadn't had a productive year (2)All the research they did on Rolen indicated that he was fully recovered and would be fine and (3) wanted a defensive upgrade in the infield.
* Probably won't be going after a free agent catcher, and unlikely Zaun and Barajas will both be back. So it looks like next year it'll be Barajas and an internal candidate as the backup.
* Three guys will definitely be called up in Spetember and maybe one more, none likely to be surprises. One of these will not be Accardo.

Game Day: Jesse Litsch against Edwin Jackson 7:10 PM
TDIB 28 August 2008 | 76 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
fozzy - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#191395) #
That's odd, I thought I remember reading yesterday that Accardo had been shut down for the season because of his lingering arm problems.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 11:46 PM EDT (#191396) #
7.0ip 5h 3r 2bb 9k - Marcum's Rochester performance tonight.

It's been said that Arnsberg wasn't consulted on Litsch's demotion, and I don't recall reading any quotes from him on Marcum's situation - on the surface to me it looks like a simple case of JP recognizing the team was cooked and wanted to save the team some dough in the future. If Cot's has Marcum at 1.128 heading into this year, would a full season not have guaranteed him Super-2 status?
Greg - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#191398) #
It wasn't me
The_Game - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#191399) #

So is Accardo out for the year and going to see Dr. Andrews or is he coming up in 4 days?

It looks like JP might have mixed up one of his lies, or maybe he just completely forgot that they just ruled Accardo out yesterday.

The_Game - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 12:44 AM EDT (#191400) #

If he thinks that Glaus didn't have a productive year last season, I wonder what he thinks about Rolen's year to this point.

Greg - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 12:49 AM EDT (#191401) #
Agreed.  For whatever reason Glaus got a bad rap here in Toronto.  I can see in 15 years his stay here being remembered as a big disappointment by casual fans, despite the fact he was one of our best hitters both years he was here.
92-93 - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 01:02 AM EDT (#191402) #
It's more likely JP was just remembering the hobbled, oft-injured Troy as opposed to the Troy he traded for. Glaus hit .295/.405/.566 until June 20th, but just .237/.336/.402 the rest of the way. It's understandable that he could leave a bad taste in some minds, despite the fact that he came exactly as advertised and was just unable to handle playing on turf every day. I'm sure many of you recall how painful it was watching him at various points of last season struggling while trying to play through soreness/injury.
92-93 - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 01:42 AM EDT (#191404) #
"One of these (September callups) will be Accardo."

JP actually said that Accardo will be shut down, he's physically & structurally fine with a little bit of a nagging forearm strain that has a prescription of 6 weeks of rest.
China fan - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 01:59 AM EDT (#191405) #
    A couple of interesting nuggets about Purcey's brilliant game:    He was only the second AL pitcher this season to strike out at least 11 batters without walking anyone.   And he was only the 4th rookie in Jays history to strike out at least 11 batters in a game.  (Source:  mlb.com)   Just further evidence of what a superb game he pitched against the division-leading team.
    And if anyone wants to play the trivia game today, I suppose a couple of good questions would be:  who were the other Jays rookies who struck out 11 or more in a game?  And who was the other AL pitcher this season who struck out 11 or more batters without issuing a single walk?  Unfortunately I don't know the answers so you'll have to figure it out amongst yourselves.....

brent - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 02:35 AM EDT (#191407) #
Could anyone make out what "Greg" and JP were yelling about? I couldn't understand what either said.
TamRa - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 04:33 AM EDT (#191408) #
That needs editing - Accardo is NOT coming according to JP

One is obviously Marcum, two is likely Wolfe and three I assume would be Richmond

the possible 4th guy might be Thigpen.

Because he implied that he wasn't done with Thiggy when asked about a FA catcher so I would think that in his mind right now Thigpen is your reserve catcher on opening day next year (unless something falls into his lap he can't resist i guess)



The_Game - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 04:42 AM EDT (#191409) #

Who was the other AL pitcher this season who struck out 11 or more batters without issuing a single walk?

Kevin Slowey did that last week (12 K, 0 BB).

Gwyn - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 05:22 AM EDT (#191410) #
One of these will be Accardo.

Sorry I was obviously missing a not in there, Accardo has been shut down for the year
John Northey - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#191413) #
If no surprises then Marcum, Wolfe, Richmond, Thigpen, and Coats are the only real candidates as all have been on the team this year already and, other than Thigpen, have produced decent results in AAA.  Richmond I'd be tempted to leave down just due to overloading in the pen (15 guys if everyone called up) plus the fact he is viewed as a starter only and Halladay/AJ/Marcum/Litsch/Purcey are locks to start the rest of the season I'd think.  If one of them goes down or needs a break then you spot start Parrish.  Richmond is Jays property for 2009 no matter what (this is officially his first year of pro ball as far as MLB rules are concerned) while Parrish is most likely a free agent (5.103 days of service - maybe send him down to keep him from reaching 6 years and put him into arbitration or maybe the Jays left him down enough that it will work out that way) or if not he is in arbitration which means the Jays must decide what to do with him this winter.

FYI: by being sent down the Jays have locked in that Wolfe won't be a super-two in a year - he had 125 days of service coming in.  JP is being very careful about avoiding those.
Moe - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 08:26 AM EDT (#191415) #
If Cot's has Marcum at 1.128 heading into this year, would a full season not have guaranteed him Super-2 status?

2.128 is right around the cut-off date. When Milwaukee signed Braun to his contract he got a super 2 clause and the comment was he will likely not get that because he will be at 2.129 and recently the cut-off was in the 130's. But you never know. They could know something or they want to play it save, which is what I speculated on before I heard about the "attitude adjustment".

It could have really be a mix of things and we'll know more after Sept 1. If Marcum is done for the year, it's likely more than just the contract.
Pistol - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#191416) #
* Two years left on the Rolen-Glaus trade - let's see how it works out.

Well, if Glaus played like this for the Jays he'd probably opt out of his deal and net compensation picks when he signed with another team.  So the Jays would have $10 million or so available for free agents this offseason and 2 top 50 picks in next year's draft.

Instead they have a 3b who 'slugs' .400 for the next two years at $11 million/year.  Who would have guessed that a 33 year old 3b with a history of shoulder problems wouldn't play like he did in his late 20s?  I guess all the Jays' research said otherwise so you can't call it a bad move.
Pistol - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 08:46 AM EDT (#191417) #
* Last three weeks have shown the team he was expecting to see this year.  Excited about where the team is going.

Haven't we heard this just about every year?  Team plays well down the stretch in meaningless games so we should expect that level the entire season next year?

* Janssen is a rotation candidate for next year, if AJ is back he's more likely to be in the pen.

If Janssen comes off of shoulder surgery and is in the rotation next year for any period of time I'll be shocked.  I'd be pretty happy if he ever got back to his 2007 level.

There's about a zero chance Burnett pitches out of the bullpen.  The translation to me is JP saying 'See ya, AJ!  We don't want you back.' (even if you are the 2nd best pitcher on the team)
Matthew E - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#191418) #
I read that as, "If Burnett is back, Janssen is likely to be in the pen." Why would anybody make a reliever out of Burnett?
mathesond - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#191420) #
And if anyone wants to play the trivia game today, I suppose a couple of good questions would be:  who were the other Jays rookies who struck out 11 or more in a game?

At a guess, I'd say Juan Guzman was one. Dave Stieb and Kelvim Escobar, perhaps, for the other 2?
John Northey - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#191421) #
Rolen is still a top flight defensive third baseman who has hit 252/349/401 99 OPS+ - his RZR is 818 with 35 balls reached out of zone - his best RZR score since at least 2004, although his OOZ plays are at 0.409 per 9 IP vs 0.630 in 2004 (his last season before injuries started hitting).  Glaus is hitting well at 274/373/478 124 OPS+ with an RZR at 711 which is about where he has been since 2004 and 35 OOZ or .292 per 9 IP. 

What does that difference in defense mean?  The RZR spread equals, per 1000 IP, about 23 extra outs made by Rolen which would've been hits if Glaus was there (based on Rolen's 165 balls in zone over 771 innings played = 214 per 1000 IP) plus if you mix in OOZ you can add another .117 plays per 9 innings or 13 more hits changed to outs for Rolen.  Adjust back down to Rolen time (771 innings) and you get 18 + 10 = 28 hits saved.  Given it is at third odds are a few of those would've been for extra bases.

So, lets add those 28 hits to Rolen's offense and remove 28 outs (ie: mix his defense in with his offense) and we end up with a 341/426/490 hitter with Glaus' defense.  I figure that is a bit more fair measure. 

Of course, other stats will come up with other results, but for this team with a ground ball pitching staff I can see the logic of a gold glover who has league average offense at third being worth $10 mil a year.  Similar to McDonald at short, although I think his offense has to stay at least at 60 OPS+ level to survive.  Plus, for the Jays to thrive, we need a big time slugger at DH to compensate for the weak infield offense.
MatO - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#191422) #

In the last year Tampa has shown they want to get rid of any bad seeds that they have in the line-up.  Could Upton be next?  In the last few weeks he's been benched at least twice for not running out ground balls.  On Sunday he non-chalanted a fly ball to centre-field and Pierzynski tagged up and took 2nd and eventually scored the winning run.  I've noticed he's been getting booed in Tampa.

John Northey - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#191423) #
Guzman peaked at 10 K's (surprised he only once cracked 120 pitches that year).  Stieb didn't crack double digits in K's in his rookie year (79).  Escobar was a reliever his rookie year, although he was low on IP so he might have been a rookie in 1998 when he K'd 11 in a start.  FYI: in '98 Escobar had 120+pitches in 4 out of 5 straight starts with the one under 120 reaching 118 and one of the 4 being at 135.  Wow, guess Johnson was saying 'screw it, I'm using everything I've got for this one shot'.

Who else is possible?  Hmm.  Jose Nunez was a live arm but that is all I can think of who seem likely.  Carpenter maybe?

Pistol - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#191424) #
I read that as, "If Burnett is back, Janssen is likely to be in the pen." Why would anybody make a reliever out of Burnett?

That makes more sense.  I misinterpreted that bullet.
John Northey - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#191425) #
Woohoo!  Got Nunez - he K'd 11 and walked 0 just like Purcey did.  6 hits, 1 run, 8 IP but the Jays scored 7 for him so he got a win.  Sadly his next two starts were under 5 IP each with 5 & 6 runs allowed.  Also sadly he played for Jimy Williams thus was yanked out of the rotation then, put back in and given under 5 innings per start for his next 3 in which he allowed 5 runs/2 runs/1 run (IP were 4.2/3.2/2.1) then tossed in the pen, then given 2 more starts where he went 6 shutout innings followed by 4 2/3 where he gave up 5 runs, back in the pen, one start (3 IP, 2 runs), back in the pen.  Jimy was a horrid manager.  The following year (still under Jimy) he never gave up more than 3 runs in any appearance and got just 2 starts and was used mainly as a mop-up man (team was 1-12 in his appearances) - he had two starts where he threw a total of 8.1 IP 9 H 1 R 1 ER 3 BB 6 SO 1 HR before being sent back to the pen.  In '89 he was sent to the minors under Jimy then was a September call-up under Cito and was used only in mop-up situations plus starting the final game of the regular season (Jays already in playoffs at that point) where he went 3 shutout innings K'ing 6 without allowing a baserunner.  He was traded that winter for Paul Kilgus and given sort of a shot in Chicago (10 starts, 11 relief outtings) and was never heard from again.

Sigh.  Nunez was a guy I always wondered 'what if' with.  In '87 (at 23 years old) he might have helped a heck of a lot vs Joe Johnson (88 ERA+ over 14 starts), Phil Niekro (55 ERA+ after being jerked around by Jimy), Duane Ward (butt kicked as a starter), and John Cerutti (bad year as a starter, great as a reliever but still had 21 starts).  Given the shot like Purcey has had he might've become something, instead he got jerked around and fell apart.
Matthew E - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#191426) #
What I recall about Nunez was that he'd pitch great if he didn't have too much time to think about it beforehand. Many of his best games as a starter were ones where they sprung the decision on him at the last minute... but if he had all week to prepare, he didn't pitch as well.
Wildrose - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#191428) #
 Of course, other stats will come up with other results, but for this team with a ground ball pitching staff I can see the logic of a gold glover who has league average offense at third being worth $10 mil a year.

Here's a valuation of Rolen  which melds defence/hitting and position up until Aug 12/2008. Using this methodology Rolen has provided solid value. In fact he's the Blue Jays "best positional player".

I guess it all depends how much you value defence. I'm still on the fence about this trade somewhat as Rolen's value is closely tied to his ability to stay healthy enough to provide near league average hitting coupled with stellar defence. I'm just not sure how well he'll hit with his serious shoulder maladies. I think the final analysis of this trade is still to be determined. You can see however, why the team is trying a radical new batting approach just to get him out on the field.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#191429) #
I thought that the idea of bringing up Parrish was to give him a start against Tampa, who are a weak hitting club against left-handers with Longoria out.  It looks like Litsch is getting the start tonight.
Ryan Day - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#191432) #
Rolen's shoulder isn't "done." At the end of June, he was hitting 288/377/474, and no one was complaining. So the question becomes how to manage it - whether through a combination of regular off-days, or an adjusted batting approach.

People were saying the same thing about Glaus last year -he was going to fall apart at any time, couldn't possibly stay at third even if he was healthy, was hopeless against right-handed pitching, and that the Jays were going to be stuck with his contract. Pretty much all of that turned out to be untrue.
parrot11 - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#191434) #
Asked about the reasoning for Rolen-Glaus trade: (1) Glaus didn't want to be here, and hadn't had a productive year (2)All the research they did on Rolen indicated that he was fully recovered and would be fine and (3) wanted a defensive upgrade in the infield.

I don't agree at all with JP rationale in the return he got for trading Glaus. This is an good example of a GM not using leverage and getting the worse end of the deal. I think that we could all agree that both players had serious injury questions attached to themselves, but everyone in the baseball world knew that the Cards had to trade Rolen and noone except for the Jays, Glaus, and his agent knew of Glaus requesting a trade. So theoretically the Jays should be holding the Cards rookie GM by the short hairs. Instead JP gets the guy with the longer contract (never a good idea with a player with such serious injury concerns) and nothing additional in the deal to offset this disadvantage. Worst comes to worst you tell Glaus that you tried to move him but couldn't find a suitable deal for the team, so the interim you ask him to split time between 3B, 1B, and DH (esp if the plan all along was to cut Thomas) and sprinkle in additional off days to partially alieviate the situation until it can be resolved. Personally, although defense is relevant at the corner infield spots, people (in this case JP) overrate it's value compared to having a good to great bat there.
China fan - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#191435) #
The problem with Glaus is that he was going to leave anyway, and the Jays had nobody in the minors who was even close to being ready to replace him within a year or two.  They were facing a big problem at 3B within a year.  Rolen's long-term contract was actually an asset to the Jays, not a liability.  They wanted someone who could fill 3B for another two or three years, until the Jays could groom a prospect for 3B.   Actually there's a chance that this strategy could still be relatively successful.  Rolen and Bautista, between them, could cover 3B for another couple years, and it won't be a sinkhole as it might have been if Glaus had left and nobody was ready to replace him.
vw_fan17 - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#191436) #
Here's a valuation of Rolen  which melds defence/hitting and position up until Aug 12/2008. Using this methodology Rolen has provided solid value. In fact he's the Blue Jays "best positional player".

Ok, I see the +18.5 for Rolen's defense. Which make sense if he's really as good as he appears to be.

I'm sure the defensive adjustments have been calibrated for position, but it's still VERY hard to swallow Vernon Wells at -12 for defense.. Is he really THAT much worse than the average center fielder these days? I always thought he was at least around average.. This says he's the worst center fielder in the game defensively except for Nate McClouth..


Wildrose - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#191437) #
Is he really THAT much worse than the average center fielder these days? 

Keep in mind he's been hurt a lot this season so his sample size is quite small and subject to a lot of  variability. The same applies for Rolen, but traditionally he's always had strong defensive metrics  and his shoulder injury affects his hitting not his throwing arm.  I think it fair to say the general trend for Wells lately has been downwards, but it's hard to separate the wheat from the chaff , as he's been playing through lots of injuries which may have influenced his defensive capabilities   (e,g. bad hammy).
SK in NJ - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#191438) #

The problem with Glaus is that he was going to leave anyway, and the Jays had nobody in the minors who was even close to being ready to replace him within a year or two.  They were facing a big problem at 3B within a year.  Rolen's long-term contract was actually an asset to the Jays, not a liability.  They wanted someone who could fill 3B for another two or three years, until the Jays could groom a prospect for 3B.   Actually there's a chance that this strategy could still be relatively successful.  Rolen and Bautista, between them, could cover 3B for another couple years, and it won't be a sinkhole as it might have been if Glaus had left and nobody was ready to replace him.

Isn't that the same reasoning that Gord Ash used to justify trading Shawn Green for Raul Mondesi? Or Roger Clemens for David Wells? Getting an equally expensive inferior player for more years just so a hole won't be created is absurd. What if the Jays traded Burnett for Barry Zito, with the same reasoning attached (subtract 3B with SP)? It's backwards logic. If Glaus opted out, the Jays would have had $11 million extra to find a 3B. Would that 3B have been as good as Glaus or Rolen? Maybe, maybe not. But being satisfied with average production due to the fear of the unknown is bad GM work, IMO.

I'd much rather have two picks and $11 million to spend with Bautista being the only viable 3B option on the team, rather than a 34-year old Rolen for $22 million over the next two years. Hell, the Jays could have traded for Adrian Beltre (who the M's may want to dump) if they had a hole at 3B heading into 2009. He likely wouldn't cost too much to acquire given his production and it would be a reasonable risk given his road numbers. Problem solved.

Why trade an asset for a liability? Just because the asset wanted out? Come on.

sweat - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#191439) #

I'm pretty sure that JP and a fair number of other people thought of the trade as an asset for an asset.  If the M's didn't want to dump Washburn, they aren't dumping anyone.

 

John Northey - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#191442) #
The Rolen/Glaus trade was very much like an Ash move.  Differences?  2007/08 we had no third basemen ready for the majors or even close. 
1999/2000 we had...
Chris Hayes (OF/3B) hitting 298/383/473 then gone (no idea what happened to him after his age 25 season)
Adam Melhuse (OF/CA) hitting 292/440/501 in AAA at age 27 who always tore up the minors but didn't get any real shot until age 32 in Oakland
Andy Thompson (OF) age 23 hitting 293/352/594 in AAA but got only 2 games in the majors
Kevin Witt (1B/OF/3B) age 23 hitting 278/373/520 in AAA but didn't see much ML time outside of 2003 as a Tiger (the year they lost 119)
Casey Blake at third (easy to move to OF) hitting 249/352/469 (lost on waivers in 2000 after a slow first 30 games, ended up hitting 291/365/481 in AAA and now has a 105 lifetime OPS+ in majors)
Luis Lopez (1B/3B) hitting 322/370/418 at AAA at age 25  (got 128 PA's in '01 and 27 in '04 despite hitting well in AAA through the 2001 season)

A few guys worth giving a shot to, not to mention that Vernon Wells just had his first taste of the majors in 1999 and many thought he was ready for the majors (105 PA's in '00/'01).

Ash could've also signed any of a number of free agents to cover a single outfield slot.  He did trade for Dave Martinez mid-season 2000 (81 OPS+) and signed Marty Cordova at the end of spring training (65 OPS+ for the Jays vs his 108 the year before and 122 the year after) and used Rule V pick Dewayne Wise (never played above A ball before).  Meanwhile Chad Mottola (a AAAA guy) hit 309/356/566 in AAA, Wells 243/311/432 in AAA, Jay Gibbons tore apart AA (321/398/525) before being lost in the Rule V draft, etc.

I guess with Ash running the show it was best to get a vet as he really didn't have any use for guys without a 'proven track record' in the majors.  Geez did he make weird choices back then.

Back to today's topic... JP has a few options other than Rolen he could've used - Scutaro as the everyday third baseman, or Hector Luna (275/327/403), or put Eckstein there and left McDonald at short.  Maybe moved Hill to third and put Scutaro/Inglett at 2B.  None of which are as appealing as Rolen.  Plus, of course, we have no idea what he was offered for Glaus from others - Glaus was viewed as an injury risk and poor defensively at around $10 mil a year so maybe not too many wanted him.  Green was in his prime, a guy who could play CF at the time, coming off a 143 OPA+ season with a silver slugger/All Star/top 10 MVP.  Mondesi was still in his prime (29) but 2 years removed from his peak, like Rolen having issues with his manager and viewed as a guy they wanted to get rid of and making $10 mil a year when that was a top 10 pay figure. 

I hate looking back at the lost opportunities of the Ash years, but can't help it.  Anytime I think of getting rid of JP and putting the assistant GM in charge I keep going back to Ash and wondering if we'd be back into that situation where we'd see prospects die on the vine, old vets brought in to block them, and trades being made that would never do more than maintain the team rather than taking chances on improving it.  JP does those things at times but under Ash it was far more extreme.
whiterasta80 - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#191443) #

I'm the biggest JP critic you will meet, and even I have to admit that I thought the Rolen for Glaus trade was a wash, if not a good deal for us.  You have to trust your doctors (who would have had a say) I doubt they would have predicted that Glaus would be this healthy, or that Rolen would be this unhealthy. 

In any event, Rolen could still get healthy this offseason and come back.  Regardless of whether its physically possible (debatable), I don't think anyone would question his desire to do so.

Moe - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#191445) #
Question: Would Glaus be as healthy and productive as he is in STL had he stayed? Given that the turf gave him problems, probably not.

So, we shouldn't look at the numbers he puts up this year and assume he would have done the same as a Jay and conclude it was a bad trade. After last year, Glaus's stock was low, so it's unreasonable to assume JP could have gotten much more than Rolen.

However, if really no one knew Glaus wanted to leave (and I think that's a fair assumption), JP should have gotten a bit more. I think the problem was looking for a straight 3B for 3B switch. What about Glaus for a SS, 1B/DH, C... and then another trade to get Rolen, depending on what you get for Glaus.
subculture - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#191446) #

Earlier in the year, we all would have agreed that Rolen was the better half of the deal as he was outplaying Glaus significantly.  I have a feeling over the next few years we'll be flip-flopping on this a few more times, as they both go thru their health issues.

One point I will agree wholeheartedly is that with Rolen and Overbay as defense-first players, having a Scary Bat in the DH or other spots is essential to this team.  If we need Rolen and Overbay to be the big bats, we're going to be disappointed.  On the otherhand they can be great complimentary offensive weapons.  I'm hoping Snider can develop faster than we think, and he and Lind can rotate LF/DH, and occasionally spell Overbay.  Or pick-up the next Carlos Quentin - what a find that was!

Similarly, if we need Scutaro to be our everyday 3b option, then we're in even bigger trouble.  He's a great utility player, but I don't want him getting everyday at-bats (at least, not on a team that has similar value players in Eckstein, McDonald, maybe Inglett).

HollywoodHartman - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#191447) #
Interesting tidbit from Joe Sheehan today:

  • The Toronto Blue Jays have the fifth-best adjusted record in baseball. I had said at the start of the season that they might be the eighth-best team in baseball and we’d never know it because of their schedule. Well, they’ve outdone that, thanks to tremendous pitching and defense. One other thing: they’re 33-23 since recalling Adam Lind on June 22. Way to finally get there, guys. Shame the New Shannon Stewart Era didn’t work out; no one could have seen that coming.
John Northey - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#191448) #
There is the key.  Getting enough offense to go with enough defense and pitching to be winners.

DH is a pure offense slot, although using it as a rest break to keep guys fresh has its benefits too. If Snider is ready for 2009 then we have a sweet situation with all outfielders and 1B getting regular rest via DH without having to put them on the bench for a day.  Thus 5 guys (Rios/Wells/Lind/Snider/Overbay) share DH (Lind covers LF/1B, Snider RF/LF, Rios CF/RF, Overbay just 1B, Wells just CF as I don't see him trading with Rios).  2B/SS/3B involves some combo of Hill/McDonald/Rolen getting rest via Scutaro/Inglett/Bautista but whenever the backups come in we lose either on defense (all cases) or offense (Rolen and maybe Hill).  CA is Barajas mixed with Thigpen or a AAAA guy signed in the offseason while waiting for Jeroloman or JPA to be ready to move into that backup slot.

Offense for the OF/1B/DH should be at the 110+ OPS+ level (Rios at 107, the others at or above 110 this season outside of Snider of course).  Rolen & Hill we'd hope to have around the 100 level.  Barajas should be around 90 but Thigpen...ugh.  McDonald...umm...he'll hit better than Alfredo Griffen did I think.  The 3 infield backups should be in the 90 range.  Thus the 3 infield slots outside of 1B plus catcher  should average out to 90 (McDonald and Thigpen dragging them down) but the 5 outfield/DH/1B slots should pull it back up to be a slightly above average offense depending entirely on how Snider (or a free agent) does.

A team like that should be A+ for defense as Rolen/McDonald/Hill/Overbay/Rios are all Gold Glove candidates and Lind has good defensive stats (RZR of 898 last year, 885 this - just 3 of the 13 guys qualified cracked 900 this year, just 1 last year) while Wells used to be a GG'er and Barajas has a good rep.  Scutaro has been surprisingly good, Inglett has middle of the pack stats, Bautista...er...Glaus ranks higher which should tell you all you need to know.

The pitchers will love it, but lets hope for a good recovery by Hill and a solid DH or Snider coming into his own next year.
Pepper Moffatt - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#191449) #
Speaking of offense from 1B/DH, did anyone see that Carlos Delgado hit his 30th last night and is just 7 ribbies away from 100?

In the 4 years since the Jays gave up on him, he's hit 125 homers, 409 RBI and put up something around a 270/360/530 line.

In the last 4 years, the team leaders for the Jays have hit:

HOMERS
----
2005 - 28 (Wells)
2006 - 38 (Glaus)
2007 - 26 (Thomas)
2008 - 14 (Wells)
TOTAL - 106

RBI
----
2005 - 97 (Wells)
2006 - 106 (Wells)
2007 - 95 (Thomas)
2008 - 60 (Wells/Rios)
TOTAL - 358

Ouch.


TamRa - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#191450) #
Haven't we heard this just about every year?  Team plays well down the stretch in meaningless games so we should expect that level the entire season next year?

But that was a misstatement.

The Jays are 33-23 in the last over 1/3 of a season....that's a pace that would produce 95 wins over a full season.

So there "play good after it's too late" reputation doesn't kick in in late June does it?

Furthermore, they had the best record in the league in May. Really they have only had two really bad stretches. The second half of April, and the three weeks which started on May 31. Those two stretches combined add up to 7-26

the rest of the time they are 61-38 ....that's a 100 win pace.So it's a myth that they only have played well when it didn't matter any more.

The trick to improving is keeping those slumps from being so very deep.
Look where we would be if we had gone say 15-18 in those games.
Mike D - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#191451) #

In the 4 years since the Jays gave up on him, he's hit 125 homers, 409 RBI and put up something around a 270/360/530 line.

Come on, Mike.  Even if we don't adjust for the vastly inferior overall quality of the National League, surely you remember that the Jays did not "give up on him" -- at least not in the sense that they came to a purely "baseball" conclusion that he would not be a meaningful asset to the club.

If the Jays offered him arbitration, he would have accepted it and collected around $18M per season, which he could not (and did not) get on the open market.  And this was before a massive relative increase in the Canadian dollar, improved attendance, and the budget increase.

Your overall point may be right -- though, for AL/NL reasons, it may not be -- but the issue did not play out the way you are framing it.

Pistol - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#191452) #
So there "play good after it's too late" reputation doesn't kick in in late June does it?

On June 18th the Jays were in last place and 10 games back.  So yes.
James W - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#191453) #
Dave Bush is one of the rookies who struck out 11 in a game.  To be fair, this was mentioned on last night's broadcast.
Rob - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#191454) #
Entirely unrelated to everything, some trivia questions:

1) Through 2007, who holds the record for most teams played for, counting multiple seasons with the same team as different teams? (In other words, if every team changed its uniform every year, who has worn the most uniforms?)

And no, it's not Rickey Henderson; he's in second with 29.

2) What is being measured in these "Top 5" lists of batters and pitchers from 2007?

397: J Rollins, PHI
350: C Lee, HOU
344: G Atkins, COL
340: A Rios, TOR
332: E Byrnes, ARI

432: Livan Hernandez
428: Bronson Arroyo
424: Paul Byrd
421: Jon Garland
399: Jarrod Washburn

As always, no looking up either answer (and please, no wagering).
Thomas - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#191455) #
Speaking of offense from 1B/DH, did anyone see that Carlos Delgado hit his 30th last night and is just 7 ribbies away from 100?

Actually yes, because after the Jays failed in the 8th inning last night I switched it to the Mets-Phillies game and did see Carlos hit his second homer of the game. I just wanted to mention it's fun to watch Delgado hitting like the old Delgado after he went through a rough patch earlier in the season. I still enjoy watching him hit.
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#191457) #
When I suspect that Rolen was activated from the dl in order to be placed on waivers, and traded if claimed, because a disabled player can't be waived, am I off-base? Has this already been discussed or am I simply wrong on the waiver trade rule?
Thomas - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#191458) #
David Eckstein has started (and appeared) in one game since August 14.
scottt - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#191459) #
When I suspect that Rolen was activated from the dl in order to be placed on waivers, and traded if claimed, because a disabled player can't be waived, am I off-base? Has this already been discussed or am I simply wrong on the waiver trade rule?

I wondered about that. He's certainly not there to hit.

Stairs sits so that Lind can DH, Inglett takes LF, Scutaro 2B and Bautista 3B.

Stairs has been hitting for average, but is just slugging .300 in August. Maybe not a bad idea to re-evaluate him as a pinch hitter down the stretch.





TamRa - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#191460) #
On June 18th the Jays were in last place and 10 games back.  So yes.

On the same day Oakland was 3 games out of the division lead.

Now they are 19.5 games out.

On June 18 2007, the Cubs were 7 games out and 6 games under .500 - they won the division.

On June 18 2005, the Huston Astros were 10 games under .500 and 14.5 games out of the division and 8.5 games out of the wild card....and they won the Wild Card and went to the World Series.



I don't think I'll condemn myself to giving up on my team before July arrives. YMMV


brent - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#191461) #

Does anyone remember how JP acquired Jesse Carlson?

Thomas - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#191462) #
Jesse Carlson was a minor league free agent who had previously been in the Jays system. He was resigned to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training in January. I believe the Jays acquired him the first time as a minor league free agent, as well.
Pepper Moffatt - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#191463) #
"Come on, Mike.  Even if we don't adjust for the vastly inferior overall quality of the National League, surely you remember that the Jays did not "give up on him" -- at least not in the sense that they came to a purely "baseball" conclusion that he would not be a meaningful asset to the club."

Yes they did.. JP offered him a ridiculously insulting contract, then at the BBox Pizza Feed told us he was done as anything but a DH.  I mean, the guy personally told us.

"If the Jays offered him arbitration, he would have accepted it and collected around $18M per season..."

It never had to get to arbitration in the first place.  They never made a serious attempt to resign him - we both know that.
GregJP - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#191465) #
Jamie Campbell pronouncing submariner.  LOL
Admin - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#191466) #
Jordan Bastian says the Angels are interested in one of McDonald, Scutaro or Eckstein.
clark - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#191467) #

This is my #1 site on the net, and it is a great pleasure for me to read incredibly insightful posts about the Jays.

Just a minor request, could we try to limit our use of the word absurd?

 

Ozzieball - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#191468) #
Jesse Carlson was a minor league free agent who had previously been in the Jays system. He was resigned to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training in January. I believe the Jays acquired him the first time as a minor league free agent, as well.

First time round he was signed after being kicked off the Tigers for freestyling about the coach's wife.

Pepper Moffatt words

You are aware they had a trade set up for him to Cincinatti and Delgado blocked it, right? No. Of course not. You're going with the theory that Riccardi is intentfully trying to hurt the team.
lexomatic - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#191469) #
maybe we can get wood for eckstein? the angels seem to have given up on him.
R Billie - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#191470) #

The Angels may have soured on Wood but I don't think they're trading him for any of our infielders.  I'm not sure that Wood is good enough to stay at shortstop and his offence seems volatile too...there's no guarantee he's a long term solution.

As for Delgado, I don't see how a blocked trade to Cincinatti proves that the Jays did not give up on him.  He was their only elite offensive player and was never replaced.  JP underrates the value of having elite players around...you get the sense that he'd much rather have a team full of slightly above average players.  That's exactly what the Jays have now and it's garnered them slightly above average results year after year.

Without Adam Lind, this team might well be struggling to stay above .500 at this point.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#191471) #
Let's go for a triad of Mikes in one thread.  It hasn't happened in years.

The Jays offered Delgado $5 million per over 2 years.  Godfrey defended this obviously inadequate offer in a TV interview at the time.  The club could have offered $10-$11 million per over 3 years, which Delgado may or may not have accepted.   Alternatively, the club could have said, "Carlos, you're a great player and we are not got to make you an offer because we cannot afford to pay you what you're worth", the equivalent of which Beane has said on a number of occasions. 

Delgado's defence has been poor the last few years.  The irony is that (like Ramirez) he has more value to an AL team.

greenfrog - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#191472) #
The AL East is going to be extremely competitive next year. The Rays and Red Sox are already good, and they have some serious talent on the way. New York is getting older but they're still competitive--and they'll have greater contributions from Wang, Chamberlain and Hughes next year (and will likely add a couple of players along the lines of Sabathia and Teixeira). And Baltimore is better than it once was.

So: the Jays may improve next year (and nothing is guaranteed), but either way, making the playoffs could be harder than ever.
Some call me Tim - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#191473) #
According to Jordan Bastian, Matt Stairs has been designated for assignment and Travis Snider has been called up.  It seems early, but I guess this is a sign that Ricciardi is serious about making a run for it this year.  Normally, I would think he would be more concerned about service time.  Too bad there's few other options to help with the offence.

Barry Bonnell - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#191474) #
Why should J.P care about service time? He will be long gone by the time that is an issue. This doesn't have anything to do with this year. It has all to do with next year. If Snider rakes up here J.P can say to ownership this is my player and he will be here next year and I deserve to be back next year as well.
robertdudek - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#191475) #
According to Jordan Bastian, Matt Stairs has been designated for assignment and Travis Snider has been called upIt seems early, but I guess this is a sign that Ricciardi is serious about making a run for it this year.  Normally, I would think he would be more concerned about service time.  Too bad there's few other options to help with the offence.

The exact opposite, is my take. Bringing up Snider is nothing more than a sneak preview for 2010. Service time isn't an issue because they'll be able to farm him next year to reduce his service time (and I'm willing to bet they do exactly that). This guy is extremely young and is bound to have some tough times over the next few years adjusting to major league pitching (he has barely seen AAA pitching).

It would be delusional in the extreme to think that this team has a realistic shot of making the playoffs this season.
ayjackson - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 12:10 AM EDT (#191477) #
Now that Blair is back from China, will Macleod start blogging again?  Or Blair?  Or did the Globe just give up on baseball at the beginning of August.
Smithers - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 12:25 AM EDT (#191478) #
Wow, that was quick.  Apparently, the contender that Matt Stairs is being traded to is Philadelphia, according to Ken Rosenthal.  In return will be a generic prospect. 
Some call me Tim - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 12:28 AM EDT (#191479) #
It would be delusional in the extreme to think that this team has a realistic shot of making the playoffs this season.

I guess I like being delusional in the extreme.  Isn't it kind of a prerequisite to being a Toronto fan (of almost any sort)?

Though Travis Snider is not the Messiah (or even Jewish), there's a possibility that he might have more success than some of the deadwood that has been thrown out there to bat this year.  The Travis Snider who hit well at AA and AAA will probably be a more effective DH than say David Eckstein.

That said, I definitely believe that Ricciardi is grasping at straws trying to find one that will help.  The most recent example being Bautista, a guy they've "had their eye on for a long time" a la Mench and Wilkerson. 


Jdog - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 12:29 AM EDT (#191480) #
Snider will need a nickname ASAP
ayjackson - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 12:34 AM EDT (#191481) #
Would Dominic Brown or Jason Donald be asking for too much?
ayjackson - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 12:36 AM EDT (#191482) #

Snider will need a nickname ASAP

Duke would be the obvious one.  Failing that, how 'bout Dave Van Horne?

The_Game - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 12:46 AM EDT (#191485) #

This obviously isn't a move to try to compete this year. They are out of it, they know it, and this is one way to keep the fans interested.

Anyway, a couple of things.

First, I'm glad for Stairs that he gets to go to a contender. He's never won a championship in his career, and it's definitely one that is winding down quickly. It's also a good trade by the Jays as they get rid of Stairs' final year on the contract (though I'm assuming that they'll probably pick up some of it for the other team), freeing up some money for FA spending in the winter, even if it's only 1M+.

And then the major news, Snider being called up. As much as I'm excited about this, I can't help but feel that JP is rushing him. He's only 20 years old (outside of Kershaw, would that make him the youngest player in the majors right now?), and he hasn't even had full seasons at the AA or AAA levels. He wasn't even doing that well in AA (.807 OPS) for that matter. Is this an effort by JP to show his star prospect with one last-gasp effort to save his job? Will it come at the expense of Snider's development?

Jays2010 - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 12:47 AM EDT (#191486) #
I would absolutely love if the prospect for Stairs is Jason Donald. I think teams all over still value Stairs and Philly has no need at all for Donald.
The_Game - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 12:49 AM EDT (#191487) #
There's no way they would trade Donald for Stairs....
Ducey - Friday, August 29 2008 @ 01:18 AM EDT (#191491) #

...no JP just trades for utility infielders and LH relievers.

I can see trading Stairs as this season is done.  But why rush Snider?  Letting him finish up in AAA and play a little in the AFL while fully recovering from his earlier injury would seem the more prudent course to me.  Give him 160 AB next year in AAA and if he is scorching the ball with a low K rate, bring him up.  I can't see how rusing a prospect now helps anyone - except JP.  Could it be that he is the best prospect ever drafted by JP?  I think the GM is getting desperate. 

The suggestion that Janssen is going to be in the rotation next year seems a little far fetched as well.  How is Chacin doing right now in his recovery?  How about waiting 'til Casey throws a pitch before announcing him in the rotation next year?

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