http://twitter.com/MLBastian

McGowan has been shut down after shoulder pain. Litsch will be delayed too. Marcum is our only hope now.

I'm not at all surprised about McGowan.  As soon as he had the surgery I figured that if he had a successful return it would be as a reliever.  With TJ and rotator cuff surgeries, and a frayed labrum, the odds were definitely stacked against him.

Have the Jays hit rock bottom?  I think it depends on the type of fan.  The casual fan might be less inclined to watch a losing team, but those fans will return if the team starts winning and becomes trendy again.  I think that for hardcore fans the worst of times are over.  I'll enjoy watching the new draft picks and young kids play and develop over the next few years, even if the team's losing.  That's assuming Gonz-Donald is not what we can expect from AA in the future, once some new pieces have been added.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/odds-ends-mcleod-yankees-wagner.html

Here's some good news as Boston's scouting director is heading to San Diego.

 The Brewers signed P John Halama to a minor league contract, with an invitation to spring training.

Hooray! As has been said here on Da Box many times before, embrace your inner Halama!

Well, I purchased a flex pack, so rock bottom attendance will be, at the very least, 22.  I anticipate that others may join me this season.

And while I prefer watching a major league baseball game to caterwauling over attendance, I can offer this research from a few months ago:

Top Five Attendance Seasons of All Time (for teams with no playoffs or new ballpark within 15 years)

1. 2008 Blue Jays (2.400); 2. 2002 Angels (2.306 in World Series year); 3. 1991 Rangers (2.298); 4. 1980 Astros (2.278 in NL West championship year); 5. 1993 Rangers (2.245).

The market is fine.  Oh, and the next time you hear "it's just like the Expos, they'll definitely leave town"...

Expos Attendance (in millions)

1998 (0.915); 1999 (0.773); 2000 (0.926); 2001 (0.643); 2002 (0.812); 2003 (1.026); 2004 (0.750).

Quiz time, guess the speaker:

"It still comes down to scouting and player development and building a team with talented young players coming up from the farm system all the time."

Did you get it?

And the answer is ........

Jed Hoyer, new GM of the Padres.

Here is the full quote:

Hired as San Diego's general manager in October, Hoyer said he'll apply lessons learned in Boston, even if the Padres are far less wealthy than the Red Sox.  "One of the things Theo always preached was to be a small market team with big market resources," Hoyer said after Padres CEO Jeff Moorad hired him. "It still comes down to scouting and player development and building a team with talented young players coming up from the farm system all the time."

And....

Moorad said he sought a GM who can bring "more planning and more discipline" to scouting and player development.

They haven't said they will be hiring more scouts yet although the Padres farm system appears to be more loaded than the Jays.

From Anthopoulos, via Bastian:

Earlier this week, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos was asked if there was any thought of shifting Wells out of center and into one of the corners. Anthopoulos said that is not something being considered now and it is not likely to be discussed in the near future.

"We don't have any plans of that at all. We consider him a mainstay in center field," Anthopoulos said. "If Vernon was older, it might be more of a concern. He's still a young guy and he also made some tremendous plays as well. There's time he didn't make great plays, but he also made a lot of tremendous plays. It's just to the point that we expect it, so if he doesn't come up with a ball or comes close, those are the ones that stick out like a sore thumb, because it's rare."

"We do some defensive analysis from a statistical standpoint, but those are certainly not fullproof at all," Anthopoulos said. "It's just one tool. We certainly use our eyes as well. Some of the things we look at are just jumps and guys getting ready between each pitch. Those are little things that can make all the difference in the world. It's not footspeed. It's not routes. It's not instincts. It might just be getting ready between each pitch. A split second one way or the other can really impact things."

Also kudos for Bastian for using UZR to point out Wells' declining defensive stats.

Speaking personally I used my eyes in 2009 and my eyes told me Wells missed a lot of balls at the wall.

More from Bastian, this time referencing SI and Baseball America.

The Blue Jays farm system is ranked 28th by BA and they could have been 30th if not for the Scott Rolen trade.  This is not a big surprise and shows why AA sees the need to rebuild.

The biggest wish of the Jays is that Justin Jackson finds a good batting stroke and that JP Arencibia learns to be selective.  Those two players represent possibilities for positions where the Jays have no major league incumbents.

Get over to Fangraphs and make your projections. Do it now!

http://www.fangraphs.com/fanprojections.aspx?teamid=14&type=0

Looks like we're getting some compensation picks:

http://tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=301002

Now let's just hope they sign Bay instead of Holliday...

Deadspin had a list of steroid exemptions doled out in 2009 and one of them really caught my attention.

Two players received exemptions to use performance-enhancing drugs because of hypertension, two for low levels of testosterone, one for narcolepsy, one for obsessive compulsive disorder and one for postconcussion syndrome.

No names named of course, but I immediately thought of Aaron Hill, who had both severe postconcussion syndrome and his best year power-wise by a mile. Not assuming, but it makes a lot of sense to me, and although you certainly can't blame the guy for his recovery from a scary injury, it kind of worries me a little in that if he is the guy, it kind of dampens long-term optimism about him a tiny bit because I assume he wouldn't get a permanent exemption. But this is all complete speculation, of course; he just seemed to me the most logical candidate when I read that piece.

http://deadspin.com/5418549/this-explains-those-missed-bunt-signs

If he can stay at catcher then I agree that you might not do better than Halladay for Montero staight up.

I agree with this as well. It was always my feeling that the Jays would eventually settle on either a package involving one quality A-grade prospect, or a package of riskier assets. Sabathia netting LaPorta, and Lee/Santana netting a package of riff-raff seems like the best comparison. In this context, the Bedard trade would be an aberration.

In terms of the Jays positioning themselves to get the best offer, I think it is wise to demand multiple quality prospects, only to eventually agree to a more reasonable package. If the Jays could "settle" for a deal centered around Montero/Hughes, then that would be great.

I thunk I said this before but.....

The Jays have demonstrated an ability to develop pitchers and between Zach Stewart, Brad Mills, Bobby Ray, Chad Jenkins, etc they should have one or two guys to cover them for the next few years.   They are short talented position players so why not ask for two top quality position prospects, hopefully not at second base, first base or DH. 

By sticking to asking for pitchers you are limiting your trading partners in a market where you need to develop as many trading partners as you can. 

Speculation is that Montero will have to move from catcher, though I've read it's not a certainty.  He is only 20.  He may be blocked in NY by Texiera if he moves to 1B, so the Yankees might be tempted to deal him.  I'd be more concerned about getting Montero and another prospect(s) than Joba or Hughes.