Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
On a night when the NHL Awards were handed in Las Vegas, the hometown 51s were part of an organizational-wide battle for the Batter’s Box nightly awards. Egan Smith pitched 6 innings and didn’t allow an earned run and it was only the third best start in the minor leagues, while Mike Crouse hit a pair of triples and was shut out, as well. As the affiliates won every game played except in the Gulf Coast League, read on to find out which performances are recognized as the three stars of the night (although will likely only receive cuttlefish instead of shiny trophies).

Sacramento 0 @ Las Vegas 8Boxscore

Marc Rzepczynski started for Las Vegas and delivered a very solid effort against Sacramento, making a strong statement that he isn’t far away from being able to rejoin an MLB rotation. In 7.2 innings, he allowed three hits and a walk, while striking out 9. Of his 13 outs on balls in play, 9 of them came on groundballs. Jesse Carlson pitched the last 1.1 innings, walking one.

The 51s touched former Blue Jays farmhand Graham Godfrey for 8 runs over his 5 innings. Jeremy Reed and Brian Dopirak were the only two players held hitless. Leading off, Mike McCoy was 1-for-5 with a solo homer. Brett Wallace was 3-for-5 and JP Arencibia was 1-for-5, each scoring a run. Edwin Encarnacion went 1-for-3 with a walk, two runs and an error and Adam Calderone was 1-for-3 with a sac fly and two RBI. Brad Emaus and Aaron Matthews each went 2-for-4 with a run scored, Emaus adding a double and Matthews a 2-run homer.

New Hampshire 9 @ Harrisburg 4 - Boxscore

New Hampshire scored 9 runs off Yunior Novoa in 1.1 innings, to put a stranglehold on the game in the first two innings and, unfortunately, the team’s bats went to sleep after that, as the Fisher Cats managed only two hits over the next 7.2 innings, although they still worked seven walks. The first three hitters – Darin Mastroianni, Manny Mayorson and Eric Thames – all had two hits and a walk, scoring five runs between them. Shawn Bowman was hitless, but Adam Loewen followed him with a big night, smacking a triple and a home run and adding 6 RBI. David Cooper, Al Quintana and Dan Perales combined to go 1-15 with no walks, while Jonathan Diaz was 1-for-1 with three walks in the nine hole.

Ronald Uviedo started for New Hampshire and picked up the win, to improve to 2-2. He went 6 innings and gave up all four runs, three earned. Uviedo was victimized by the long ball, as he only gave up three hits, but two of them were homers that scored three of the runs. Uviedo struck out three and turned the ball over to Adrian Martin, who pitched two frames of 3-hit relief. Tim Collins pitched the ninth and struck out two.

Tampa 0 @ Dunedin 2Boxscore

Joel Carreno had a very solid start for the D-Jays. Pitching 6 strong innings, Carreno surrendered a pair of hits and a walk, while striking out seven. After Dunedin took the lead in the bottom of the sixth, he turned the ball over to the bullpen. Ryan Page and Ross Buckwalter each pitched scoreless innings to set up Dumas Garcia for his first save, which he converted without any real issues.

Dunedin had a very quiet game at the plate, but they took full advantage of an opportunity gifted to them by Tampa’s Bradley Suttle, who made an error with two out in the sixth inning. Tyler Pastornicky took advantage of the extra out and clubbed a home run, to score Justin McClanahan and give Dunedin the lead. Tampa starter Graham Stoneburner only allowed the home run to Pastornicky and the single to Brian Van Kirk, as Dunedin only had two baserunners off Stoneburner and JB Cox in relief.

Lansing

Scheduled off-day at All-Star Break.

Auburn 8 @ Mahoning Valley 3Boxscore

Markus Brisker led off and went 2-for-4 with a double, an RBI and a walk. After Jonathan Fernandez went hitless, Carlos Perez followed with a 1-for-5 evening. Matthew Nuzzo, Gustavo Pierre and Yeico Aponte joined Brisker with two-hit games. Each scored at least one run, with Pierre doubling and the other two drawing walks. Supreme Court Justice John Roberts (I bet he’s never heard that) was hitless, but Marcus Knecht had a single, a walk and a pair of RBI. Lance Durham only had one hit, but it was the game’s biggest, as he added a 3-run homer in the 8th inning to put the game out of reach. The Doubledays were 4-for-4 in stolen base attempts, with Brisker swiping two bags.

Egan Smith started and the unearned runs caught up with him, as he allowed three runs, all unearned. The runs came in to count because of two separate errors, one by him and one by Brisker. Otherwise, Smith pitched well, not walking a batter and striking out four over 6 innings. Dayton Marze pitched a scoreless inning of relief and then Juan Hernandez struck out four over the final 2 innings to finish the game.

GCL Blue Jays 6 @ GCL Braves 12Boxscore

It wasn’t a night to remember on the mound, as the GCL Braves pounded out 14 hits off GCL Blue Jay pitching on their way to a 12-6 doubling. Deivy Estrada started and gave up 7 hits over 3.1 innings. The GCL Braves scored four runs off him, two earned, as Estrada walked four and struck out two. Milciades Santana pitched 1.2 innings of one-hit ball, striking out three, which was the best pitching performance on the night. Jesse Hernandez gave up four hits and three runs in his inning. Alex Pepe pitched 1.2 innings and gave up three runs, although all were unearned and he only allowed a hit and a walk. Finishing the game was Matthew Morgal, who allowed two runs in 0.1 innings.

There was a better performance from the bats, as the GCL Blue Jays had 10 hits and managed six runs. Michael Crouse had a good night, with a pair of triples in the leadoff spot, 2 RBI and he also drew a walk. Jake Marisnick also had a two-hit night that included a double and a walk. Jonathan Jones, KC Hobson and Moises Sierra were all held hitless. However, Andy Fermin was 2-for-4 with a run and Gari Pena added a double and run, providing some offence from the middle infield. Christopher Hawkins was 2-for-3 with a double and run, while Cody Lassley added a single.

DSL Blue Jays @ DSL Braves

Postponed

Three Stars:
3rd Star – Joel Carreno, 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
2nd Star – Adam Loewen, 2-4, 2 R, 3B, HR, 6 RBI, BB, 7 TB
1st Star – Marc Rzepczynski, 7.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

Awards Night in Vegas | 43 comments | Create New Account
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Maldoff - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#217495) #
Maybe Gerry or mamboon can answer this - what is the scouting report of Joel Carreno? I've been following him for a few years now and he seems to put up great numbers wherever he has been, but the Jays do not seem to ever want to fast track him. Does he have a legitimate shot at the show? Or is he a guy who is able to dominate low ball hitting but will scuffle at the higher levels?
Mike Green - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#217497) #
I think that Zep is ready now.  He was beat up in May coming off his injury, but in June, he has been very good.  There are no spots in the rotation available for him yet, but some of the starters are racking up some innings.
ramone - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#217498) #

I think that Zep is ready now.  He was beat up in May coming off his injury, but in June, he has been very good.  There are no spots in the rotation available for him yet, but some of the starters are racking up some innings.

Jon Heyman of SI said the Jays could be rare possible pitching sellers this year and named Frasor, Downs and Marcum.  I asked Blair via twitter about Marcum's availability and Blair replied that all the Toronto writers have heard the Jays may be willing to deal Marcum.  So one scenario is we could see zep up around the trade deadline if the Jays can find an excellent return for Marcum.  I would assume this also hinges on how Litsch and to a lesser extent Drabek pitch over the next few weeks.

Gerry - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#217500) #

When I saw Carreno pitch, last year I believe, he was a fastball slider pitcher with an average fastball, plus slider.  The knock on him was that he used too many sliders, it became his fastball essentially.

Clayton McCullough last week said that Carreno was using his fastball more this season which he would need to do to get ahead.  This year he has increased his strikeouts and I am not sure why.  To me his upside is a major league reliever.

Mamboon might have seen him pitch in Dunedin.

92-93 - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#217501) #
Good call, Zep is looking real good, especially when you're mentally adjusting for the PCL. There's little doubt he'll get his chance soon, with the added bonus that if the rotation actually holds up until September you delay his free agency by a year if he only makes those last 6 starts or so.
fredlewis3 - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#217502) #

Any chance of Careno promotion to AA this year?

Great to see two pitchers on the world team....Magnusen makes sense...stats , age, success at AA....Alvarez...I dont get it he is still very young....his stats not that impressive and has gotten blown up a few times.... who is promoting him?

 

 

John Northey - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#217503) #
Marcum, having shown he is healthy, should be worth a fair amount. He'll have 4 years 128 days service at the end of the year so anyone getting him has 2 1/2 years pre-free agency.

He is strong trade bait imo. Two quality prospects perhaps?
stevieboy22 - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#217504) #
So one scenario is we could see zep up around the trade deadline if the Jays can find an excellent return for Marcum.

The trading Marcum debate is going to be a frequent one. I love Marcum and can't see trading him, unless the Jays can get a tremendous haul, which I doubt they can. He has never been a high profile guy, and doesn't throw hard. I think a GM would view him as a big risk. Fans are likely to be harsher on a GM who trades a big package for a guy with an 88 mile an hour fastball, if he fails, than someone who throws with more velocity...
rfan8 - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#217507) #
I am against trading Marcum at this point unless you are getting a fabulous return.  I think he will continue to provide tremendous stability to the rotation and has helped the younger guys a lot. 
PeterG - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#217508) #
Only 5 can be in the starting rotation. Barring injury, some will need to be traded for position prospects. Marcum would seem as good a bet as any to be dealt.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#217509) #
According to the milb.com log, Pastornicky's homer was to centerfield in Dunedin.  My mental image of him is David Eckstein, whose homers always seemed to be 335-340 footers down the left-field line.  I suspect that I need to revise my image; maybe Dustin Pedroia is a better comp.
Matthew E - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#217510) #
What do we think of the idea of the Jays using a six-man rotation this year, to a) try out as many of their young starters as possible, and b) keep their innings down? Just for the rest of this year.
ayjackson - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#217511) #

Why not keep the best five? 

Only 5 can be in the starting rotation. Barring injury, some will need to be traded for position prospects. Marcum would seem as good a bet as any to be dealt.  
Mike Green - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#217512) #
A six man rotation is an interesting idea.  Or you could have Zep working as a swingman, and skip starts for various starters from time to time.  Or you could incorporate some tandem starting (!). 

At this point, with the success of the rotation, I'd imagine that Bruce Walton would have quite a bit of input on this. 



Forkball - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#217513) #
He is strong trade bait imo. Two quality prospects perhaps?

I don't get this.  Why would you trade a really good starter (absent money concerns, which there aren't here)? 

This is a team that's given 9 starts to Dana Eveland and 5 to Brian Tallet this year.  Morrow and Cecil are hit and miss.  And prospects in general are hit or miss (and more misses at that), plus have injury risk.  I don't see any surplus in where you feel comfortable giving up an established pitcher.

So from my eyes there's Romero and Marcum and a lot of question marks.  To trade Marcum for prospects is counter-productive.  I would think Marcum would be one of the main players you're building around.
92-93 - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#217514) #
I love the idea of a 6 man rotation, the back end of the bullpen is rarely used anyway. Heck, why not just carry 6 SP 7 RP, it's not like there's any reason for Nick Green to be on the team with JMac and JoBau around, covering every position in case of emergency. The team could always call up another position player in the event a guy is hurting for a few days.
Denoit - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#217515) #
I think keeping Marcum is a good idea as well. I would sign him for 3 more years before I think about tradign him. By then you will have a better idea of where some of the prospects coming up are at. I know alot of people think the Jays have so much depth, but really they don't. They do have some nice young pitching but injuries happen. Give him 3 more years and by then you will know what you have in Drabek, McGuire, Rzepczynski, Stewart, Alvarez. I would think you could get Marcum under contract for a fairly reasonable price.
PeterG - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#217516) #
AA might want to see what Marcum would want  for a 3 year deal and then make a decision. As to the question as to why not keep the best 5 - well we might know who the best 5 are now but it might be different 2 years down the road - also the better the bait, the better the return.
92-93 - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#217517) #

There's no reason to trade Marcum because nobody is paying a price that makes it worthwhile to give up 2.5 years of him at a cost-controlled price if all the Jays got for the best pitcher in baseball was Wallace, Drabek, D'Arnaud, or in other words zero sure things. Call me a homer but Marcum should have more trade value than somebody like Dan Haren, who will make more in the rest of 2010 than Marcum will in 2011, and close to double what Marcum will make in 2012.

There's also no reason to give Marcum a contract extension unless you get a SERIOUS discount. He's coming off TJ and you have him in arbitration for the next 2 years, so why jump the gun, especially when you're organizational strength is supposed to be pitching? The Jays shouldn't extend Marcum earlier than they have to, like they did with Wells & Rios, unless it's a contract in the mold of the Hill & Lind ones.

TamRa - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#217519) #
regarding Marcum, i don't think you actively SEEK to deal him but I certainly think you let people know you can be presuaded.

As for building around him, well, I love the guy but if our rotation develops to near it's ceiling, he's the 4th starter. He is, not necessarily in ability but in his role on a contending team, a Joe Blanton sort of guy.

If we are committed to trying to capitalize and contend THIS year or next, then he's very valuable to you...if your target window is further out, then so what if you have to start a Tallet or a Richmond a few times this year and next?

Is it possible that Morrow or Cecil or Zep or Drabek or whoever flame out - that several of them do? sure.

do you pass up a solid chance to upgrade your team based on that possibility? I wouldn't.

If you rank the players we have here based on their ceiling, and list all the guys who9 might reasonably make a start by the end of 2012...
(just one's opinion, don't beat me up about it)

Morrow
Romero
Drabek
Cecil
Marcum (at best)
Zep
Stewart
Litsch
Mills
Richmond
Tallet

and i could probably justify putting Marcum two spots lower.

and again - I LIKE Marcum quite a bit.

But by 2012 you have every reason to think you are speaking of a back of the rotation guy, not that this is his talent level, any more than the Rays #5 is a "#5" in any other sense.

but if a deal involving marcum now means that Mills or richmond or whoever spends a decent amount of time as your #5 in 2011 or even 2012, that's not a HUGE problem IF - and this is key - IF the return for Marcum is significant.

if it's not, then he's not going to be dealt and this conversation means nothing.


By the way, as for signing a contract extension - if things continue has they have so far, the pitcher I want to lock up for 3+1 at the end of the season is Morrow.


John Northey - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#217520) #
The rotation is going to be an interesting issue as we go forward. Marcum & Romero both have ERA+'s over 120, Cecil is at 102. Morrow is at 83 but climbing after a very rough start. Those 4 seem to be locked in. Litsch had a rough start, then a good one. Rzep took awhile but seems to have found his footing in AAA. There are a stack of others charging in the minors too.

So, for short term Marcum is a solid choice to keep but he will be getting expensive this winter and future as he is into full arbitration. For someone to get him this year it should take a killer haul, in the offseason though his value drops as he'll make over $1 mil next year (probably over $5) via arbitration thus the few million extra value he provides in 2010 will be used up. The more I think about it the more the Jays have to demand for him and the harder it would be to find a trading partner.

Come the end of July things get very, very interesting.
Anders - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#217521) #

There's no reason to trade Marcum because nobody is paying a price that makes it worthwhile to give up 2.5 years of him at a cost-controlled price if all the Jays got for the best pitcher in baseball was Wallace, Drabek, D'Arnaud, or in other words zero sure things. Call me a homer but Marcum should have more trade value than somebody like Dan Haren, who will make more in the rest of 2010 than Marcum will in 2011, and close to double what Marcum will make in 2012.

I don't really know why you would assume that no one is going to pay a fair price to get Marcum, especially if you are basing this on the way things went with Doc. For 1 year of a Cy Young pitcher and the right to pay him 20 million a year after that, the Jays got 3 top 100 prospects. Yes they are not "sure things" but baseball teams essentially don't trade "sure things" so I'm not sure where that is coming from - no team is going to trade a Longoria or a Heyward for a Halladay, let alone a Marcum.

As for the Dan Haren thing, this kindof proves the opposite of your point, indirectly. Haren's contract is large now but not unmanagable, though I suspect many would prefer him to Marcum. However, Haren was traded (along with Connor Robertson) to the Dbacks in a situation very similar to the one you have decried. Haren got shipped out after his age 26 season, during which he threw 222 innings of 138 era+ ball. I believe at this point he had 4 years service time and 3 years left on his contract. The A's got Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland and 3 other decent guys back for him. At this comparable point, Marcum is older, has two more years under team control after this one, no contract, an injury history, and a level of peak performance below Haren's (127 era+ this year so far) so he isn't worth as much. With that being said, if the Jays could get back anything near the haul the A's got for Haren that would be pretty remarkable.

I don't know if trading Marcum is the right thing to do, but to suggest that the Jays couldn't possibly get a decent return is, I think, not based in reality.

PeterG - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#217522) #
All things considred - age, years to Fa, money, - Marcum should be worth more than Halladay- if that type of return(or close to it) becomes possible, I think you have to move him as there appears to be more than enough pitching in the pipe to cover.
Marc Hulet - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#217523) #

Here is an interesting story on draftee Seth Conner, who has yet to sign... but just might.

stevieboy22 - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#217525) #
a Joe Blanton sort of guy

Calling Shaun Marcum a Joe Blanton sort of guy, is like calling Cito Gaston a Carlos Tosca kind of guy...

I don't see any connection..

Yes they are both pitchers...But thats about it..

If Marcum was a number 4/5 on any rotation in the majors, then that team would have an awesome rotation... Marcum has only had one bad start this year... How many other pitchers in the majors can you say that about?

Marcum has better stuff, control, and has provided better results as a major league pitcher than Blanton.... Blanton is a marginal upgrade on Chad Gaudin... Marcum is likely one of the top 50 pitchers in the MLB right now... Blanton has an ERA of almost 7 in the National League...
TamRa - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#217529) #
not Blanton NOW - Blanton when he was a reasonably hot commodity on the trade market.

and - again - I SAID i wasn't making a comparison based on stuff or any such thing.


Mike Green - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#217530) #
Blanton and Marcum aren't really comparable.  The issue with Blanton is effectiveness.  At his best, he was an effective pitcher, not a great one, and with a K rate that was quite low.  The issue with Marcum is durability.  Can he throw 180-200 innings in a season?  I think that he can, and if so, he's a lot better pitcher than Blanton ever was. 

And really, the issue is pretty much the same with Romero.  He had an ERA of 3 through the first half of last year, and then blew up in the second half. 

I personally would listen to offers on any of the pitchers. It is an organizational imperative to convert some of the pitching talent into position player talent. 

FisherCat - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#217531) #

Interesting tidbit culled from the Fisher Cat's Game Notes tonight...

"Senators…LHP Tom Milone becomes the 11th consecutive left-handed starter the Fisher Cats will face."

Gerry - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#217534) #

Great start by Drew Hutchison tonight for Auburn, six shutout innings.

Chad Jenkins started for Dunedin, the results were similar to his Lansing starts.

Trystan Magnuson gave up his first home run of the season tonight and blew the save opportunity for New Hampshire.

mamboon - Thursday, June 24 2010 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#217536) #

Gerry,  RE: Carreno...

I missed the game on Wednesday at 11 AM, so I didn't see Carreno's great 6 inning 2 hit outing. I had a meeting out of town.  Later, I had a chance to redeem a coupon for a free wheat germ and honey body wrap at the Safety Harbor spa.  It didn't work.  ;o)

And I haven't seen him pitch in the past.  So I can't add anything at this point that hasn't been said.  I will be at Dunedin Stadium Friday night, let me see if I can get any buzz on Carreno.  

As far as him moving to AA... I'd think it depends on how their pitching crew looks and if there is any need should any NH hurlers be likely to move up or down.  Team pitiching for NH is average on most measures and their offense is tied for the league lead with a .268 team batting ave.  So, with hitting like that, they can weather average team pitching in Manchester.  When we speculate on players moving up, I think we need include the need at the next level in our calculations. 

Dunedin's pitching is above average on most measures in the Florida State League.  Their batting is well below average.   I would think that Dunedin would like to keep Carreno and other performing arms where they are for now... to help them remain on top in the second half of the FSL season. 

Me thinks the Jays organization has come to value winners on the farm.  So for now, maybe the need for Carreno is in Dunedin.  Enough of my blather.  I'll see what I can find out Friday.

 

92-93 - Friday, June 25 2010 @ 02:59 AM EDT (#217538) #

Anders, I'm confused. You label all the reasons why Haren was significantly more valuable than Marcum when the OAK-ARI trade was made, and then say if the Jays could come close to that return it would be great. But that's exactly why I don't think there's any benefit to a Marcum trade! I'm going to elaborate on the points you made just to depict how much more valuable I think Haren was.

1) Years/Salary - Haren had 3 full seasons left at guaranteed prices of 4m, 5.5m, and 6.75m. Marcum has 2.5 seasons left and will cost the team peanuts this year, but if he continues this pace he'll probably cost significantly more in those final 2 years, seeing as Wandy Rodriguez filed for 7m this offseason and lost, earning 5m, and Verlander was asking for 9.5 while DET was offering 6.9 (Marcum will have more service time than both).

2) Results/Durability - There's a MASSIVE difference between Haren coming off 3 straight 34 start seasons of 3.73, 4.12, and 3.07 ERAs and Marcum who has never lasted longer than 2/3 of a season and is fresh off TJ (and no bold or CAPS can do it justice). An acquiring team would have to face the very real possibility they need to shut down Marcum as September rolls in to protect their investment,  which doesn't make very much sense for a team that would be looking to acquire a Marcum type for 2010.

If you agree that because of all that the Jays would be lucky to get remotely close to the type of value the As got, aren't the Jays much better off just keeping him for themselves and hoping he continues this season's trend of being every bit as good as Dan Haren was back then? Would you really be satisfied in a Martin Perez + scraps offer from the Rangers, or something of the sort? In light of his workload/injury history I think it's close to impossible for the Jays to get proper value in return for Marcum's potential, and think the Jays would be much better off seeing where the team is at in July 2011 and revisiting this idea come then. If the SP depth chart looks strong and Marcum is coming off a 190ip season and 20-22 starts in 2011 I think he will have a ton more value on the trade market and the Jays might actually be able to land more than one high impact prospect. And heck, who knows, maybe the Jays will actually be in a race in 2011 and therefore won't have to bemoan the fact they traded away a rotation anchor for a guy or two that won't be ready to help substantially until 2012 at the earliest.

At this point we have to be pretty confident in AA's trading ability, given the Doc trade and the fact that Morrow is really settling in after another spectacular outing tonight - over his last 8 starts his line reads 49ip 41h 16bb 46k 1hr 2.96era 1.14whip. If AA has another ace up his sleeve for Marcum I'm all ears, as I'm a firm follower of the "anyone is tradable if the price is right" camp, I just have my doubts it can be done. I'm prepared to be surprised.

Lugnut Fan - Friday, June 25 2010 @ 03:51 AM EDT (#217540) #
Good to see that the Jays moved Jenkins to Dunedin. Given his age and draft standing, they moved him about when I figured. I am not overly surprised that his start was similar to his outings in Lansing. Jenkins likes to throw the ball in the 93 to 95 range from what I have seen and that is far too hard for a sinker ball pitcher. The best start I saw him have this year was one in which he never threw the ball harder than 90 to 92 allowing him to get good bite in that sinker. He also needs to throw more change ups if he is to improve in the FSL the remainder of the season in my opinion.
TamRa - Friday, June 25 2010 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#217542) #
Blanton and Marcum aren't really comparable.  The issue with Blanton is effectiveness.  At his best, he was an effective pitcher, not a great one, and with a K rate that was quite low.  The issue with Marcum is durability.  Can he throw 180-200 innings in a season?  I think that he can, and if so, he's a lot better pitcher than Blanton ever was.

Qualifying - AGAIN - that I am NOT speaking of ANYTHING but gross results and potential value....

Blanton at 24:

3.53 ERA - 1.22 EHIP - 124 ERA+ - 3.0 BB/9 - 5.2 K/9 - 1.73 K/BB

Marcum at 26:

3.39 ERA - 1.16 WHIP - 125 ERA+ - 3.0 BB/9 - 7.3 K/9 - 2.46 K/BB

Blanton has more demonstrated durability at the point of the trade, Marcum has a better K rate.

Marcum's career to date (age 28):

3.81 ERA - 1.26 WHIP - 114 ERA+ - 3.0 BB/9 - 7.1 K/9 - 2.37 K/BB

Blanton at the time of the trade (age 27):

4.25 ERA - 1.33 WHIP - 2.39 BB/9 - 5.1 K/9 - 2.13 K/BB
(ERA+ was 106 going into the trade season, likely a bit lower at the time of the trade)


Blanton was in his first arbitration year at the time of the trade, just as Marcum is now. His raw stats were slightly worse in most categories and much worse in terms of strikeouts, but as has ben mentioned, has the edge in perceived durability.

Now, one can argue the benefits of relative parks and competition but the ERA+ is adjusted for that, is it not?

Now, Marcum IS better now than Blanton was at the time of the deal but but he's in the same general neighborhood as far as his potential role on a contender's staff. Would he be a boon to Texas or Detroit or the Mets?
Absolutely.

Would he have a similar impact to that which might be made by adding Ace-caliber guys like Lee or Oswalt?

Not in my opinion.

As for the Haren comparison, outside the Innings thing (again) - but Haren was perceived to be at the level Marcum is at now when he was 25 - most people operate from the assumption that a player peaks in his late 20's so it's a reasonable difference in value to be there at 28 instead of 25.

Still, I think the two serve as nice bookends - AT LEAST as valuable as Blanton was and NO MORE valuable than Haren was. (at the time of their respective trades)


by the way, and for the record, I'm biased enough to be inclined to think that Marcum will be a 120-something ERA+ pitcher for several years to come and might potentially still have a career year where he spikes up to 140ish....but that doesn't mean that tight-fisted GM's around the league will share that view.

i see nothing wrong in seeing what's out there though.

TamRa - Friday, June 25 2010 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#217543) #
by the way...Egan Smith was promoted, presumably into Jenkins' slot
Allen - Friday, June 25 2010 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#217545) #
Here is a full-blown feature story on 41st round draft pick Seth Conner.
http://tagsgf.com/2010/06/07/seth-conner-the-power-to-emerge/

85bluejay - Friday, June 25 2010 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#217546) #

I'm firmly in the "everyone is available for the right price" camp - I hope the Jays can be both sellers & buyers

at the deadline - We need to buy a young,quality #3 bat - if the Brewers make Braun available (not a fan of Fielders '

bodytype & boras client) or Alex Gordon of K.C

Kasi - Friday, June 25 2010 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#217549) #
ERA+ is adjusted to ballpark yes, but not to competition. Well it sort of does to competition in that it normalizes it to the league the player plays in. But that means ERA+ would adjust a pitcher's era who played in the AL West the same as one who played in the AL East. It does nothing to really normalize to quality of team's faced. One starter could face the Yankees five times, while the other the Mariners 5 times, and the stat wouldn't do anything about it. It's an interesting stat, but in my opinion fairly flawed.

Marcum is though better then Blanton, although I don't think that is the point. What I really like about Marcum is his leadership, and I think he's worth keeping around over someone like Cecil because of it. From what I've read, it seems like Romero and Marcum are the leaders in the pitching staff, and while I think Cecil probably has better stuff, I'd rather keep Marcum right now because in his intangibles I think he helps the team more. For example his advice to Morrow in correcting his pitching mechanics was huge.

stevieboy22 - Friday, June 25 2010 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#217551) #
Now, Marcum IS better now than Blanton was at the time of the deal but but he's in the same general neighborhood as far as his potential role on a contender's staff.

Again, bad comparison.. If by role you mean 4/5th starter, then you are talking about a rotation that would be absolutely insane...

Marcum has had ONE bad start this year... The rest have all been quality or close to it... Where as if the Jays had Blanton, as even their number 5, they wouldn't be competitive..

Its a bad comparison.. If Marcum pitched for Philly either today or in 2008, then Marcum would have be their number 2...

The point is Shaun Marcum HAS been a top 3 pitcher in the best staff in the majors... Where as Joe Blanton is a fat and sucks...

And if you are looking at career numbers, you also have to consider that Blanton has pitched in the AL West and NL his whole career... And still hasn't been very good....
TamRa - Friday, June 25 2010 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#217584) #
Again, bad comparison.. If by role you mean 4/5th starter, then you are talking about a rotation that would be absolutely insane...

Where's the head-banging smilie when you really need it? Okay....point by point:

Marcum is quite possibly the 4th best starter on talent on THIS team right NOW. Easily the third. To reiterate - I LIKE Marcum, I like him a LOT. But that doesn';t mean I'm going to fool myself about his ceiling.

Marcum has had ONE bad start this year... The rest have all been quality or close to it... Where as if the Jays had Blanton, as even their number 5, they wouldn't be competitive..

ARGH!!! How many times do I have to say that I'm not talking about Blanton NOW??!?!!?!!?!!?!

Its a bad comparison.. If Marcum pitched for Philly either today or in 2008, then Marcum would have be their number 2...

The what now? Tell you what - I'd be willing to state pretty unequivically that if you called up all 30 GMs and ask them if they'd trade Hamels straight up for Marcum you wouldn't find one that gave the offer 2 full minutes consideration.

ERA is not the only measure of a pitchers present and percieved future value.

The point is Shaun Marcum HAS been a top 3 pitcher in the best staff in the majors... Where as Joe Blanton is a fat and sucks...


I'm not crazy about Blanton - I think that he was overvalued then and he probably peaked early - but he didn't "suck" at the time of the deal or at all until this year. He ranged from mediocre to above average and he was precieved as an inning eater.

Is Marcum better? oh heck yeah. but not so much better as to make the comparison of Blanton's value AT THE TIME OF THE TRADE in a similar range to what Marcum's would be now.

Of course, every trade is different and there's always the possibility some fool trades away Scott Kazmir for a mediocre guy (which is one of the reasons i'm arguing for seeing what's out there)

But all I see in posts like yours is the sort of homerism that I'm often accused of - overvaluing a guy who's impressed you for the home team. Is Marcum GOOD? Oh yeah? Better than Blanton now? Absolutely. Better than Blanton was when he was dealt? (arguably - he'd had a poor first half for the A's that year and I certainly wouldn't deal him for a package like the one Oakland got.

But I wasn't arguing about Marcum's ABILITY - I was arguing about PERCEPTION - and Blanton was then percieved as a 3/4 guy who'd be a great second tier supporter in a staff that had ace's already....and Marcum, fairly or unfairly, is almost certainly viewed the same way.

if I'm wrong, cite me ONE writer or baseball professional outside Toronto who has described Marcum as a potential ace/ front-of-the-rotation guy for a playoff contender...the sort of guy who'd get a big haul in a July trade in the say way that Haren or mulder did.

Just one.


And if you are looking at career numbers, you also have to consider that Blanton has pitched in the AL West and NL his whole career... And still hasn't been very good....

Am I wrong that ERA+ adjusts for these factors?

Kasi - Saturday, June 26 2010 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#217595) #
Am I wrong that ERA+ adjusts for these factors?

You're wrong Will. ERA+ is actually a very very simple calculation.

ERA+ == (league ERA) * (home park factor) * 100 / (player's ERA)

All it takes into account is three things. The player's era, the era of the league (in this case the AL) and the ballpark factor of Roger's center. There is no situational stats in ERA+. It doesn't do anything about checking quality of opposition. It assumes that all AL teams play the exact same schedule. It assumes that a team in the AL west plays the same SOS of a team in the AL East, which we all know is false.

I am concerned about Marcum's injury history, but if he stays healthy I'd rather have him right now then Cecil. I feel Marcum is a much bigger leader in the clubhouse and has a stronger mentality. Cecil does have better stuff though. Although I do think that we want to keep 2 lefthanders in the lineup. And iirc every one of our minor league promising starters other then Scrabble is a righty. (aka Drabek, Stewart, Jenkins, Alvarez, etc) So that would be a plus in keeping Cecil, to leave him with Romero as the lefties in the rotation.
TamRa - Sunday, June 27 2010 @ 01:42 AM EDT (#217599) #
I stand corrected re strength of opposition. Is there any commonly available stat out there which makes that adjustment?

So anyway, looking at FanGraphs

Blanton:
Age - FIP - WAR
24 - 4.43 - 2.5
25 - 4.16 - 3.3
26 - 3.50 - 5.6
27 - 4.52 - 2.2  << year he was traded
28 - 4.45 - 2.2
29 - 5.52 - 0.0

Marcum:
Age - FIP - WAR
24 - 5.42 - 0.4
25 - 4.93 - 1.4
26 - 4.46 - 2.0
27 - injured
28 - 3.61 - 2.0

Now, while I'll freely admit that GM's don't look at these metrics like they should (at least that's the claim) take a look at Blanton's last complete season before the deal, at age 26, and compare it to Marcum's current season at age  28 and with a TJ operation behind him.

Now tell me again how Marcum is WAY better than Blanton was at the time he was traded. Blanton brought 11.4 WAR into that season, Marcum brings 3.8 into this one. and he's two years older.

In fact, now that I see these numbers, I think I was too hard on Blanton in my last post in this thread.

All that said, the difference in strength of opposition still tilts the balance slightly in Marcum's favor - but age and past performance up to the point of the trade weigh heavily for Blanton.
Kasi - Sunday, June 27 2010 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#217606) #
FIP or tERA is probably the best, and yeah that season before he was traded was responsible for his trade value. Especially since he threw 230 IP in that year.

Still even those don't take into account quality of competition. Having a FIP of 4 in the AL east is far better then a FIP in the weak AL west

Spifficus - Sunday, June 27 2010 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#217607) #
FIP does short-change Marcum on the exchange for at least a couple of reasons. First, Blanton's HR/FB rate appears to have been a Colosseum mirage. Second, Marcum has consistently done two things better than average (things that aren't factored into FIP), have a lower than average BABIP, and a lower than average strand rate.
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