Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - If Only They Were All Like This

Seven games, six wins and a whole whack of dominant pitching.

There may be something to that 'inflated offense in the PCL' thing after all. The 51s showed they don't miss Brett Lawrie, at least not yet, in scoring 17 runs on 18 hits. Virtually everyone had a big game but I'll let you sift through the non-prospects. On the actual prospect front, David Cooper was 2-for-5 with his 44th double of the season. Adam Loewen chipped in three hits, three RBI, a walk, a stolen base, and his 40th double.

Scott Richmond started and sucked. He lasted four innings and allowed nine runs. From there the bullpen was actually quite effective highlighted by Winston Abreu who struck out four over two frames.

New Hampshire 4 Richmond 2

The prospects did some good prospecty things in this one. Anthony Gose was 2-for-5 with a double and a run scored while Adeiny Hechavarria was 0-for-2 but walked three times which is encouraging as he'd drawn just 21 free passes before last night. He's actually hitting .311 over his past ten games. Travis D'Arnaud was 1-for-4 with a walk.

Chad Jenkins had his good stuff on Thursday going six innings and allowing a run on three hits and a walk. He struck out three.

Dunedin 11 Brevard County 1

Sean Ochinko was the star of this one going 3-for-5 with three doubles, three runs scored, and two RBI. Bradley Glenn smacked his 22nd homer.

Check out Ryan Tepera's last ten starts. With but one exception he alternates shutouts with blowouts. It's pretty awesome. Last night was the shutout night. Tepera went seven and allowed just four hits and a walk against seven strikeouts. If your local bookie takes High-A ball action, go with a Dunedin loss and the over on August 9th.

South Bend 1 Lansing 2

Not much here. The top guys all had one hit apiece (five hits, four doubles overall) but Marcus Knecht stood out by going 1-for-1 with four walks.

Marcus Walden allowed a run on four hits and three walks in five innings. He struck out three.

Spokane 4 Vancouver 1

Not a bad night on the farm when you've gotta get to Short Season A-Ball to find the first defeat. The Canadians managed just four hits, three of them doubles. Roan Salas had one of them.

Blake McFarland started and allowed all four runs (three earned) on eight hits in 5.2 frames.

Greenville 2 Bluefield 3

Kevin Pillar was the star of this one going 3-for-5 with a homer and two RBI.

Mitchell Taylor continued to impress going five perfect innings and striking out seven. Over his past two starts, the 19 year-old has allowed one hit in 11 innings and struck out 16.

GCL Phillies 3 GCL Blue Jays 4

Andrew Burns and Seth Conner had three hits each. Conner's line included a pair of doubles and walk for good measure.

Joe Musgrove had his best professional start to date going three perfect innings and striking out four. Just in case you thought the Jays didn't have enough decent pitching prospects in the lower levels.

DSL Tigers @ DSL Blue Jays- Postponed (like always)

Three Stars:

3rd Star: Joe Musgrove- 3 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

2nd Star: Ryan Tepera- 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

1st Star: Mitchell Taylor- 5 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K

Posted by braden on Friday, August 05 2011 @ 09:24 AM EDT.

If Only They Were All Like This | 68 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Dave Rutt - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#240218) #

Jenkins' GO/AO ratio isn't great in AA, but it's been better over his last four starts. With his low strikeout rate, he'll need to keep that sinker going if he hopes to reach the bigs.

Kasi - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#240222) #

I think Jenkins could fit into the Litsch role in a year or two. He has the potential to be a bit better because of velocity, but he could be a solid 4/5th innings eater starter.

Mike Green - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#240223) #

There is nothing in Jenkins' record at any level so far that suggests he could be a successful major league starting pitcher. Maybe at some point, he'll have a Chacin-like season in double A and then you could think about it. Until then, he's best thought of as a potential heir apparent to Shawn Camp.

Kasi - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#240225) #

He's doing solid enough at AA and I think he can work on his fitness some (that's an understatement) and improve his velocity a bit because of it. And he does have the ability to get lots of ground balls, always useful in a back of a rotation starter.

Sister - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#240235) #

Jesse Litsch's first run at AA was at age 21. In 69 IP (12 starts) he had a 5.06 ERA, gave up per 9IP 11H, 1.7BB, with 7SO

Chad Jenkins first run at AA is at age 23. He has produced 63 IP (10 starts) with a 4.43 ERA, gave up per 9IP 9H, 2.7BB, with 5.9SO.

I'd say that we should be thrilled if Jenkins produces at anywhere close to Litsch's level in the majors, if he even makes it.

uglyone - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#240238) #

In fact, Litsch was in the midst of a fine rookie MLB season at the same age as Chad is right now.

Kasi - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#240240) #

And Snider was in the middle of a decent rookie callup at a young age too. Pitchers can take a while to develop. See Romero or any other number of pitchers. I think Jenkins has some useful skills that in a couple years could develop into a decent innings eater at the back of the rotation. I like ground ball pitchers as well. I don't think there is anything particularly exciting about him but I think that he could turn out alright.

stevieboy22 - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#240250) #

"Rumor out here is that Daniel Norris took a physical for Toronto in Dunedin today" - Keith Law

Someone had to post this...

mamboon - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#240252) #

Braden, thanks for the post and highlighting the prospects on the farm. RE: New Hampshire vs Richmond. I did notice there we some non-prospects who did some prospecty things as well last night. Bauxites might want to see the link below from the Fisher Cat website story.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110804&content_id=22767340&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&sid=t463

Gerry - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#240260) #

Travis d'Arnaud is number 3 on BA's hot sheet this week:

At times, scouts have said that while d'Arnaud doesn't do anything great, he also doesn't have many weaknesses. That may sound like faint praise, but when you're talking about a catcher, it's a pretty good compliment. Still, d'Arnaud may be forcing some re-evaluations of that statement, as he's putting together a monstrous year offensively. He's second in the Eastern League in batting, third in slugging percentage and fifth in on-base percentage. And he's getting hotter as the season goes along�he's hitting .370/.425/.575 since the all-star break. Add to that solid defense and a respectable 30 percent rate throwing out basestealers, and d'Arnaud is reinforcing his status as one of the game's best catching prospects.

Mitchell Taylor also gets a shout-out:

A midseason suspension and a Houston committment helped LHP Mitchell Taylor slip to the seventh round of the 2010 draft. Taylor ended up signing with the Blue Jays for third-round money, and the undersized lefty (6 feet, 150 pounds) is earning the bonus. Taylor, 19, allowed only one hit in two starts this week for Rookie-level Bluefield , throwing 11 scoreless innings. He struck out 16 and walked two. He does it with solid stuff, as he pairs a low 90s fastball with a big-breaking curveball

greenfrog - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#240263) #

Some Jays comments from the (ongoing) follow-up BA chat:

"Ben (Leland Grove): Did Blue Jays' arms Syndergaard and Hutchison come close to sniffing the list this week?

J.J. Cooper: Syndergaard made is last week and Hutchison was oh so close this week. Wish I had room to get Hutchison and Brett Eibner onto the list somewhere this week, but we can only pick out 20 guys a week. The Blue Jays farm system sure looks a lot better these days than it did two or three years ago, doesn't it?"

...

"Ryan C (Toronto, CAN): Rank these jays catching prospects: JP Arencibia, Travis D'Arnaud, AJ Jiminez and Carlos Perez.

J.J. Cooper: Rank them how? likelihood of having major league careers? Arencibia (he's already there), D'Arnaud, Jimenez, Perez. Ceiling? d'Arnaud, Perez, Arencibia, Jimenez. Now here's the thing, I think Jimenez will be a big leaguer, so that gives you an idea of the Blue Jays catching depth."

bpoz - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#240287) #

Kasi, You make some good points.

C Jenkins does not have the outstanding numbers but they are OK. He was interviewed recently and said that he is working on ALL his pitches. To me that shows intelligence, in that some level of polish is needed to succeed. Throwing the pitch that you are learning in a game can hurt you in the short run but be of benefit in your long term development. I believe that is what he is doing, which impresses me.

Romero per Jeroloman if I remember correctly did not trust his stuff. His problem was in his head IMO. I am Very thankful he figured it out while still Jay's property.

I find Litsch to be an interesting pitcher 2005 SS ball, 2006 A+ & AA, 2007 absolutely dominant in AA and good in the Majors, 2008 3.58 Era in the Majors. He may not have great stuff, but he has confidence, fearless, learns incredibly fast and is a good fielder. When healthy he has been V good.

You should compare the stuff, health & results of Litsch, Marcum & McGowan. They are 3 different kinds of pitchers who pitched together for a while, maybe 2008. I know Marcum is tough, I am sure Litsch is too and McGowan must be to put up with his injury situation. Way back C Carpenter had injury problems and was able to over come them to then become a V good pitcher. But its in the NL West.

TamRa - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#240295) #

Speaking of McGowan:

3 - 2 - 0 - 1 - 4

I've no idea why the keep stopping him at 3 IP when he's cruising.

I hope at NH they add an inning per start.

By the way, over the last six appearances including tonight:

15 - 10 - 2 - 6 - 16

1.20 ERA
1.07 WHIP

sam - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#240297) #

I'm going to put Lawrie's miscues down to nerves, but man can anyone say "bag of toys"

BlueJayWay - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#240299) #

Bag of toys? Not sure I get the reference...

Sano - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#240301) #

I think "bag of toys" = nice assortment of skills?

Cynicalguy - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#240307) #

Four hits for Hechavarria tonight...after the 3 walks yesterday...he's been hot lately, is he maybe figuring out this hitting thing? Hopefully he can finish off the season strong in terms of hitting.

sam - Friday, August 05 2011 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#240310) #

Bag of toys in baseball talk is something along the lines of you never know what youre going to get. Good, bad, ugly. Its not a reference one would want

Flex - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 12:16 AM EDT (#240314) #

Lawrie seems to play with a high intensity, and being nervous in his first game just amped him up even more. His misplays on defense looked like a case of hyper, jumpy reflexes and squeezing the glove too quickly. Give him time to relax a bit and then let's see what he can do.

hypobole - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 12:43 AM EDT (#240317) #

Four hits for Hechavarria tonight...after the 3 walks yesterday...he's been hot lately, is he maybe figuring out this hitting thing? Hopefully he can finish off the season strong in terms of hitting. What's amazing is all 4 hits were VS RH pitchers. His splits this year: vs LHP - .306/.344/.537 vs RHP - .199/..241/.259

brent - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 04:18 AM EDT (#240319) #

I was a big defender of Jo-Jo and while it was time to dump him, it still doesn't really fix this pitching staff. The team's ERA yesterday was 4.23 which is 24th in MLB(11 out of 14 in the AL). What happens if we never had Jo-Jo on the team? 4.08 ERA good for 23rd in MLB or 10th in the AL. Also, they would have had to have someone else eat those 110 innings which could have been even worse.

Well, who have performed above team average?

SP- Ricky Romero

RP- Janssen, Rzep (gone), Frasor (gone), Luis Perez, Dotel (gone)

Of course, good Brandon Morrow will probably end up here by the end as should Cecil.

I'm just saying as much as everyone stews over the lineup, the pitching needs to be sorted out if the team is even thinking about making a run next year.

You could point out the team's 19th in xFIP (8th in AL) but you need to remember that a lot of players have been traded so those would be probably too optimistic.

TamRa - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 05:20 AM EDT (#240320) #

there's an extent to which looking back provides limited info looking forward - good and bad.

the bullpen, I think everyone can agree, now stands in need. But let me start with the rotation:

Romero - no problem, is going to roll right along barring injury

Morrow - check the FIP (5th in the AL) xFIP (4th) - don't sweat him.

Cecil - since coming back, Cecil has pitched even better by every measure than he had coming into this season. True it's only 7 starts - but it was only 4 starts before he was demoted. there is EVERY reason to think that going forward he's a reliable mid-back of the rotation starter at a minimum. Even with his early difficulties, his xFIP would have him the 4th starter on either of our rival's staff. And really, who would you rather have going forward - Freddie Garcia or Bart Colon - or Brett Cecil? He's not an ace but for the role set out for him, he's fine.

That leaves you two spots. Candidates include McGowan, Drabek, Litsch, Villanueva, Alvarez, and Mills.

McGowan - Yes, we can't know how long he will hold together, yes we need to go into any season he's in the rotation with a strong option to sub in if he goes to pieces again - But what happens if you add veterans to your rotation and you have no spot for him? you lose him to another team, that's what. The most sucky of all options, IMO ,would be for us to sign Edwin Jackson (for instance - have you SEEN the list for next winter? It ain't pretty) for an 8 figure salary for too long, and then see McGowan go turn into an ace for, say, Baltimore or Seattle or god forbid NY for under a million.

Worse - what if you trade - for instance - Jimenz and Sierra to the Twins for Kevin Slowey (just to name a guy that we're supposedly looking at) and McGowan out-pitches him? then you are down two good prospects for no upgrade.

is it a big gamble to pencil McGowan into the plans? Yeah - but if he finishes this season without incident I think you have to

Drabek - Yes, you could concievably block him if you wanted. If the Jays went out and dealt (a reasonable price) for a guy like Slowey this winter I would be ok with that - Drabek is young enough that you can make him work at taking a job and if nothing else he becomes the stud-level option if McGowan flames out. But remember what you are getting in Slowey - the sixth best starter on a non-contender in the AL-friggin-Central.

Would I add, say, CJ Wilson to block him? No. Wilson ties up a 4th spot in the rotation for at least five years. and very likely wouldn't out-pitch Drabek significantly over that period while making a ton more money. Of course we all know TNSTAAPP - but you have to strike some balance between developing young guys and assuming they can't be trusted. if we leaned too far towards the latter, none of our top three would have gotten the chance to be what they are now.
Would I trade for a pitching prospect? Like? One year ago, how many pitching prospects in baseball would you rather have had than Drabek? how many of the top-shelf guys this year are any more guaranteed to pan out next year than Drabek was a year ago.

Bottom line for me is that there's no point in having pitching prospects if you block them out of the rotation. Other than trading chips.

Litsch - he keeps getting slagged, and it's true health is a concern, but when he pitches, he is just fine for the back of the rotation. He's never going to contend for a Cy, but neither are people like Ivan Nova. or Aceves. if the offense is comperable to our division opponents, Litsch (if healthy) can be a perfectly fine #4/5 starter on any of those teams.

Villanueva - better in the pen, in terms of team construction, but as an emergency guy, what's not to like.

Alvarez - much of what might be said of Drabek applies here. One must be cautions about rushing him but let's say that you go in with McGowan and Drabek and one gets hurt and the other is ineffective - Listch gets one of those and Villaneuva or Mills patches in until Alvarez is ready. if you get to Alvarez on this list, you are expecting a LOT to go wrong.

Mills - a stopgap of course, but not a train wreck - at least not so far.

Beyond that, there's always the guys you can pick up for a little of nothing as the Jays did Villanueva out there every winter. if alex decides not to upgrade the rotation directly i'd be assuming as a matter of course that he'd stash a couple of options at AAA on minor league contracts. Emergency guys, to be sure, but if you get down to your 7th or 8th option for the #5 spot then you are in big enough trouble that it hardly matters.

Also - don't be stunned if they feel McGuire is ready to pitch up here if need be by mid-season next year.

Long winded as always but my pint is, we have three starters that will play with any team in the AL, and we have 2 very good but high risk options for the other spots and two more guys who are "good enough" and two kids with a lot of promise and filler.

I, for one, don't really see ANY reason to go out and add a big rotation upgrade this winter. if he can steal someone who's undervalued (Morrow, Escobar, Rasmus) sure, that's always win. But otherwise, I'm FINE with the crew we have and I'd say the odds are better that we are having a chat about how great our rotation is this time next year than that we are wringing our hands about the failure to upgrade.

I do make one exception to all this - if he wants to throw boatloads of Rogers' money at Darvish, I'm down with that.

TamRa - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 05:30 AM EDT (#240321) #

On the bullpen -

While I have to admit the jury is out on Litsch as a reliever, there's a lot of reasons to like it.

If the bulk of our pen next year is Janssen, Litsch, and Villaneuva from the right and Perez from the left, that's a decent foundation on which to work. You need three more guys and unless you are going to gamble on one of these, one of them has to satisfy Farrell's need for a closer.

Here's the thing - if you look at the available FA closers, here are the guys who are clearly better than Francisco, or have a better track record:

Papelbon - looking at a Ryan type contract, or worse
Rodruigez - will try to match his last deal
Lidge - danger Will Robinson!
Nathan - he's 37, and having his worst year in a while, also has option
Cordero - if option is declined
Bell - K rate is WAY down

do we really prefer to give 8-figures to any of those guys as opposed to bringing back Francisco? I don't expect to see that....i do think Alex will try to trade and there are some intriguing guys out there - but one of the best options was Uehara and there was no sign he was in on him either last winter or in July.

Beyond that, he needs to add a couple of solid guys - but the LAST thing we need to worry about is adding a couple of relievers. it can and will be done.

i know that the standard meme around jays land - where it seems required that one dare not express optimisim - is "oh my god look at the horrible pitching!!" but I, for one, dissent. I think our pitching will be just fine, and that as early as 2012.

brent - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 07:37 AM EDT (#240324) #

I wonder if Alex gonZalez would be interested in moving to second base. He had a tremendous half with the jays when he was here. I'd look into Oliver Perez to see about a bullpen spot.

Paul D - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#240325) #

The Marlins were rumoured to be shopping Leo Nunez at the deadline. I'd inquire about him in the off season to bring him in for a year to close.

Chuck - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#240328) #

I wonder if Alex gonZalez would be interested in moving to second base.

You're aware of how he has been hitting in Atlanta? And that he'll be 35 next season? And, in your scenario, moving to a new position?

Hard to get enthused by all that.

China fan - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#240329) #

TamRa, thanks for the very interesting data on McGowan's last six appearances. It's making me increasingly optimistic that his comeback might be for real -- something I've always been skeptical about. My skepticism is rapidly diminishing. Has anyone heard anything about his velocity in his recent Dunedin appearances? Is he still regularly hitting 95 mph?

Mike Green - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#240331) #

McGowan still is pitching 3 innings, and his ability to stand up to 30 starts, 200 innings is very, very doubtful. If he does end up in the rotation in 2012, I would try something different. Have him as your fifth starter, along with someone like Mills or Villanueva or somebody else. For the first time through the rotation, McGowan goes (ideally) 7 innings, and Mills or Villanueva gets an inning. For the second time through the rotation, Mills or Villanueva goes (ideally) 6 or 7 innings and McGowan gets an inning. In this way, you do not muck up the rotation, McGowan gets regular, predictable work but not too much seasonal innings load.

You unfortunately do not ideally leverage McGowan's talent, but it is a difficult situation.

On another note, Gose had a typical outing last night- 6 PAs, 1 single, 1 homer, 1 walk, 3 strikeouts, and a stolen base. His seasonal line is now almost identical to his line from Dunedin last year. Sea level for him seems to be .260/.360/.420. It is good to be able to move up a level without any change in performance, but at this point, it would probably be better for him to dominate AA in fact, rather than to put up superficially good statistics in Las Vegas.

rtcaino - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#240335) #

uglyone - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#240337) #

Gose '11 (20, AA): 469pa, 11hr, 51/66sb, 53bb/117k, .260/.358/.413/.771
Lawrie '10 (20, AA): 609pa, 8hr, 30/43sb, 47bb/118l, .285/.346/.451/.797

Anders - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#240339) #

Gose '11 (20, AA): 469pa, 11hr, 51/66sb, 53bb/117k, .260/.358/.413/.771
Lawrie '10 (20, AA): 609pa, 8hr, 30/43sb, 47bb/118l, .285/.346/.451/.797

Lawrie is in fact only 7 months older than Gose, so I don't know if the point is quite as strong, but there certainly is a lot to be excited about with Gose. This has been a good year by any reasonable measure.

92-93 - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#240343) #

TamRa, I'm with you on the pitching until you advocate spending on Yu Darvish instead of CJ Wilson. I understand Darvish has the tantalizing upside but chances are the majority of us have never seen him pitch more than 1 or 2 times, whereas Wilson will have spent 2 seasons starting in that Texas heat posting 4+ WARs. I'm not saying I'd for sure prefer Wilson to Darvish (especially with the Type A tag), but if the team is looking for a SP with the intentions of competing in 2012 Wilson is probably the better option. AA wasn't willing to be the highest bidder on Chapman so I doubt he'd break the bank on Darvish. That being said, for all I know the Jays have a scout watching Darvish's every start and are quite bullish on his future.

Ron - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#240348) #

Law said he expects the Jays to be serious bidders for Darvish. With a weak crop of SP free agents combined with the fact the majority of teams need starting pitching, the team that signs Darvish is probably going to end up paying Halladay money. Once you include the posting fee, you're looking at around a 5 year/100 million dollar contract. I'm not sure if it's smart to pay that kind of money for an "unproven" player, just ask the Red Sox.

slitheringslider - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#240350) #

Aaron Hill also had a fantastic year 2 years ago for the Blue Jays, that doesn't mean a encore performance is in order. I would much rather have the corpse of Aaron Hill play 2nd then Alex Gonzalez, at least there is upside.

Also, if Oliver Perez is not good enough for the Mets, he is probably not good enough for the Jays.

jgadfly - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#240355) #

"I do make one exception to all this - if he wants to throw boatloads of Rogers' money at Darvish, I'm down with that." ... TamRa

Darvish is going to be a popular option this winter . I can't see any National League team being in the running, unless new ownership of the Dodgers have really deep pockets. I can see the Yankee$, Red $ox, the nouveau-riche Ranger$ and possibly Seattle being in play with the Jays for his services with the Mariners being the outlier.

Seattle have the 'Ichiro effect' going for them and probably little else with them also having the smallest bank balance .

The Yank$ & Red $ox will be themselves but they appear not to have the same bottomless money pit as before. The Jays' American League East rivals are showing some vulnerability in their pitching depth and will be in the thick of the bidding. Darvish is the quickest fix to their pitching problems that money can buy . They also have the biggest cachet working in their favour for Darvish' services but this could be countered by the less pressurized microscope that playing in cosmopolitan Toronto would offer. Toronto could put two nails in separate coffins and leap into the forefront of their division and still not get to the World Series because of the ascent of the Rangers.

Texa$ has been flashing alot of money lately on the international market and has a secured future as an American League frontrunner. They have also smartly invested in two Japanese players they can utilize as intermediaries slash welcoming committee in their dealings with Darvish . One drawback that Texas may have in negotiations is the gulf that lies between Bush cowboy culture and the deferrential culture that is Japan .

AA has been described as playing chess when his rivals are playing checkers. It has been said that he works two or three moves in advance of his plays but he may now be drawn into a game of poker with the big boys sitting around the table opposite him. AA is at a point where he needs to know the answer to the question "Is upping the ante just an incremental approach or is it time for him to go all in and hope to buy the pot ?" I know a little about baseball, I know less about chess and even less about poker . I just hope AA is as great at all three as he is at talking.

China fan - Saturday, August 06 2011 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#240356) #

My question about McGowan's velocity has been answered in a tweet from John Lott:

Farrell on McGowan's velocity last night: "92 to 96 with a lot of 95s".

And he confirms that McGowan's next start will be at New Hampshire. Things are looking good. And hey, even if he can't pitch for 200 innings a year, he could still be a very useful piece for the Jays.

uglyone - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 12:29 AM EDT (#240364) #

I would just like to officially board the 'sign yu darvish' bandwagon.

hypobole - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 12:46 AM EDT (#240365) #

I would just like to officially board the 'sign yu darvish' bandwagon.

How high should AA go total $/yrs, including posting fee?

slitheringslider - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 01:58 AM EDT (#240366) #

Since it is Roger's money, I really don't care that much. But since I like to practice fiscal responsibility, I would be willing to give him a Dice-K-esque contract. Something around $100M/5yrs, posting fee included. Is that reasonable?

TamRa - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 03:14 AM EDT (#240367) #

I don't think that's really reasonable - he's going to want to break the Matsuzaka record and so is his team

His contract averaged almost $9 million a yr and that was five years ago. I think the very minimum of what you have to pay him will add up to $75 million. Matsuzaka's posting fee was $51 million and I think you'd be foolish to not bid more than that.That's probably going to take $60 mil at least.

I think budgeting over $25 mil per season over the next five years (to pay the team and the player) is the price of admission - although I have no clue what kind of terms would be acceptable for paying out the posting fee (I assume it's not paid in one lump sum - even the Red Sox would have had trouble with that)

uglyone - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#240369) #

The DiceK experience has probably lowered his price more than raised it.

Shane - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#240370) #

"AA wasn't willing to be the highest bidder on Chapman so I doubt he'd break the bank on Darvish."

AA did say some time afterwards though that he regretted not being more bold and going higher than he did bid.

sam - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#240376) #

I dont know where this expectation that the Jays will be in on Darvish is coming from?

I mean, AA has been quoted as saying that the Jays likely wont pursue the Asian market as a franchise. The thinking being that while 10 million may buy you one player in Asia, 10 million could buy you 10 potentially very good players in Latin America.

I dont expect the Jays to be players in the Darvish sweepstakes.

Glevin - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#240378) #

"Here's the thing - if you look at the available FA closers, here are the guys who are clearly better than Francisco, or have a better track record:"

I hate spending money on relievers. They are just so unpredictable. Look at Tampa who had an amazing pen last year. ng money on relievers. The Tigers signed Benoit, maybe the best reliever in baseball last year, to a big contract. He's been completely mediocre. The Yankees gave huge money to Soriano. He was mediocre and has missed most of the year. Meanwhile, they sign Farnsworth, who is 35 and never had more than 16 saves in a season and he's been one of the best closers in baseball and for very little money. The Jays should go for what they had this year which is a few guys that might be able to close and hope one of them takes the reigns. Just because it didn't work very well this year, doesn't mean it isn't the best way of going about things. Guys like Joels Peralta and Zumaya should be cheap as well as guys Rauch and Casey Janssen.

Paul D - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#240379) #

I mean, AA has been quoted as saying that the Jays likely wont pursue the Asian market as a franchise.

I hadn't seen this - where did you see it?

uglyone - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#240380) #

well the first lesson in buying relievers is: "never buy a reliever based on his numbers pitching for Joe Maddon".

because Maddon is a freaking magician with his bullpen.

slitheringslider - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#240381) #

If AA's philosophy is to identify value/market inefficiencies and exploiting it, then $25M/yr for Yu Darvish certainly does not qualify. Considering the best FA pitchers in the MLB, ones with track records of success in the majors fetch around $20-25M/yr.

Lee: $24M/yr
Halladay: $20M/yr
Sabathia: $23M/yr

If you weight in the risk of uncertainty of Japanese pitchers (no one can argue Darvish has less risk then Lee or Sabathia), I think it is terrible spend $25M/yr on Darvish. He would approximately need to perform as a 5 WAR pitcher for the deal to be worth it.

If Roger's wants to throw money at him I'm all for it but I don't know given AA's value based approach if Darvish makes sense if he is going to cost this much. According to Tamra's estimate of $25M/yr you can find better value in the free agent pitching market.

greenfrog - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#240382) #

The bidding is going to be aggressive for Darvish. Young, controllable, potential front-end starter, no loss of draft picks...someone is going to pay a lot for him.

Who would be a better investment, Darvish at 5 years/$100M, or Fielder at 6+ years, $120M+?

My guess is the Jays will land neither. The money, and therefore the risk, is simply too much (see: Dice-K; Dunn, Adam; Werth, Jason). Huge-contract FA signings fail to work out, more often than not.

sam - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#240383) #

See linked article, bottom.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110325&content_id=17115772&vkey=news_tor&c_id=tor

sam - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#240384) #

Hopefully that puts to rest this silly talk about the Jays and Darvish.

TamRa - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#240387) #

The Tigers signed Benoit, maybe the best reliever in baseball last year, to a big contract. He's been completely mediocre.

I tend to agree with your overall point but to be fair, Benoit had one three week stretch when he was a train wreck (21.60 ERA in 6 games) but otherwise has been just what the expected him to be - 12 0f his 20 ER allowed fell in that three weeks.

His line otherwise is 36 - 30 - 8 - 8 - 30 for an ERA of 2.00

As with Francisco - you kinda have to look beyond the ERA to figure out a reliever because the sample size issues make it easy for a few bad outings to ruin the stats for a season.

TamRa - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#240388) #

If AA's philosophy is to identify value/market inefficiencies and exploiting it

What makes us think this is AA's philosophy? I don't think I've ever seen him say anything of the sort.

TamRa - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#240389) #

Who would be a better investment, Darvish at 5 years/$100M, or Fielder at 6+ years, $120M+?

That's a slam dunk for Darvish, IMO.

As Callum pointed out at Mop-Up duty, the Matsuzake comparison is flawed because he was litterally destroyed with an ungodly work load as a very young player. At one point he pitched back to back days and threw 145 pitches on the first of the two days.

Buying Dice-K you had to either be wiling to risk injury or assume he was a freak of nature that could handle that workload. Sure enough, most of his problems for them were injury related.

that said, yes it's a BIG risk - my argument is not so much that we should take the risk as it is that if you are going to take ANY major-money risk, he's the one to take.

He's younger than you ever get an experienced free agent for
He costs you noting in draft picks
He brings with him six years of control
He seems to be as good as any other potential signing n terms of what he could deliver over the next 5-6 years (you are getting his prime years which is not true of the other options)

the trade off for this is the "sunk costs" of the posting fee. If we were on a budget the easy answer would be "none of the above" but if the Jays are in fact willing to spend as much as $150 mil a year on payroll at some point, then this price is easy. The current conception of next year's team is probably only going to make about $60 million.

TamRa - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#240390) #

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110325&content_id=17115772&vkey=news_tor&c_id=tor

A valid point.

But there are exceptions to every rule of thumb - and for the record this guy is the only exception I'd be interested in.

also, while he says in that comment - rightly so - that:

""There's not as much upside if you sign a Dominican player or a Venezuelan player for $1 million, but maybe you sign 10 of them and end up spending $10 million"

He nevertheless contridicted that by bidding a huge number on Chapman and he gave a lot to Adeiny as well.

so really, if the man who says "I like the idea of giving $i mil apeice to 10 guys) nevertheless offered $25 mil to ONE guy, then i don't think his comments about Japanese players rule out his making an exception for a special player.

Additionally, You also have to balance that philosophy against his "add a big money guy at the right time" conversations along the way.

If we suggest he's not willing to commit big money to Darvish (who clearly is much closer to a major league free agent than Chapman was) then we are saying he's not going to spend big on Fielder or Reyes or whoever next years's most desireable free agent is and so forth.

Are we to conclude the Jays will never spend big money on a free agent?

(I ask this as a person who would much prefer as many home-grown contributions as possible but still - the prevailing wisdom voiced by both AA and Beeston is that the time will come when signings will happen)

greenfrog - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#240391) #

According to wikipedia, Darvish had some shoulder trouble when he was younger, from throwing a screwball. He switched to a splitter instead. He also had some shoulder and back issues in 2009, causing him to be put on the Japanese DL, as well as a stress fracture in his finger (that he kept to himself) and some hip pain. While these issues may be fully resolved (and taking into account that the above info came from wikipedia), it would give me some pause before writing a $100M+ cheque.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yu_Darvish

DaveB - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#240393) #

The Matsuzake comparison is flawed because he was litterally destroyed with an ungodly work load as a very young player.

Darvish is, so far, having his best season (stats can be found at http://www.npb.or.jp/eng/ ): 140 IP, 97 H, 21-159 BB-K, 1.67 ERA. He's been remarkably healthy in his career despite the ungodly workload customary in Japan. In his 20-year-old season he had 207 IP, and 200 IP the next season (in a144-game-schedule). By the end of this season he will have more career IP in the NPB than Dice-K did, at the same age and in the same number of seasons (seven). Dice-K pitched an eighth season in Japan.

Darvish is probably going to have more success in MLB than Dice-K, but how much more? Orel Hershiser, FWIW, said Darvish's stuff and mechanics remind him of Steve Karsay. There are better ways to spend $125M and better pitchers that can be acquired with the growing cache of prospects.

Jonny German - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#240395) #

[Darvish] brings with him six years of control

How does this work exactly? Does the CBA dictate that EVERY player is under team control until he has 6 years of service time, or could Darvish potentially negotiate terms of, say, 4 years and then the right to be a free agent? Regardless, "6 years of team control" is not nearly as valuable with a Japanese import as it is with a regular young player - he starts out expensive and only goes up from there.

At any rate, I'd expect AA to be doing his due diligence on Darvish and to submit a posting fee bid accordingly. But I'd also be scouting Chad Billingsley very closely over the rest of the season in case the Dodgers would like to cut costs ($35M over the next 3 years). If there's nothing physically wrong with Billingsley he's a smaller and more interesting risk than a free agent starter.

TamRa - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#240407) #

No problem at all brother.

Brother? Eh. Ok.

@Thomas - cool, I appreciate your instinct there.

hypobole - Sunday, August 07 2011 @ 11:57 PM EDT (#240413) #

Posted Japanese players are somewhat like major league free agents. The posting fee is an agreement between MLB and the NPB allowing the highest bidder to have excliusive negotiating rights to the player. If you sign them for 4 years they become a free agent after the fourth year.

Shane - Monday, August 08 2011 @ 12:15 AM EDT (#240414) #

Good grief. Forget it. No problem, sir.

Cynicalguy - Monday, August 08 2011 @ 01:57 AM EDT (#240417) #

I don't expect AA to go after Darvish either, as AA's style is to stockpile young, controllable AND cheap players. But I wouldn't be surprised if AA does something crazy like sign Darvish, then immediately trades him to some other team for a boatload of prospects with the Jays eating some of the contract for Darvish.

hypobole - Monday, August 08 2011 @ 02:16 AM EDT (#240420) #

There is no way that will happen. One thing people have to remember is that at some point very soon AA will have to stop stockpiling prospects, because they can't all be protected in the Rule 5 draft, This is one of the problems Boston faced before making their deadline deal, and a problem the Jays are going to have very soon as well. Start expecting to see some deals on the Jays part similar to the Grienke or Agon deals, with some of our prospects being shipped out.

uglyone - Monday, August 08 2011 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#240433) #

People seem to be arguing that because AA has stockpiled so many cheap/bargain players, that this is all he will do going forward.

I would argue the reverse - BECAUSE he's already been able to sign so much talent to cheap/bargain contracts, this means he's MORE ABLE to go out and hand out some bigtime contracts in the offseaosn.

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