Well, unless you've been living under a rock, or couldn't access the site because tears of sadness crashed it, you now know that the Blue Jays didn't win the posting auction for Yu Darvish, as the Rangers bid $51.7 million, to beat the Jays by somewhere between $1 and $51.7 million dollars. Which, let's face it, kind of sucks. We can blame the team, although really it's not their fault. They bid a number they were comfortable with, and though it will probably never be known, it's likely that it was the second place bid. Others in the media blew things way out of proportion, based on who knows what, and as a result there have been some 600 posts about this in the last four days on Battersbox. Not much we can do about it now, although if there is one positive to take away I think its that Jays fans are waiting, after all these years, to be excited.
Why don't we take this time to commiserate about our favourite moments of the Yuletide extravaganza. For me it was that I wrote an 800 word article about how awesome it was that the Jays signed Darvish to publish when the news became official. Now, not so much.
Hey, we can always trade 3 good prospects away for Gio Gonzalez...
Go 2014 Blue Jays!
What Yu puns were Yu going to use in Yur Darvish-bid-winning article?
How about three good prospects for Matt Garza instead?
Or maybe not trade prospects at all and actually finally use the money that Rogers has suggested is there to upgrade at 1B/DH and SP. That may be asking too much.
Or maybe not trade prospects at all and actually finally use the money that Rogers has suggested is there to upgrade at 1B/DH and SP. That may be asking too much.
Not disappointed. There are better ways to spend the money right now. If The Blue Jays were where Texas is right now, yes I would not be happy to lose out, but they have a way to go before that happens.
The rumor mill says The Jays still have a number of irons in the fire, and whatever happens now, you can be sure we will never see it coming.
The rumor mill says The Jays still have a number of irons in the fire, and whatever happens now, you can be sure we will never see it coming.
Getting to know Yu… Getting to know all about Yu:
Upset we didn't pony up at least 52 million to get him. Very disappointed. I think this will be looked back upon as one of AA's missed opportunities.
I guess now I'll just have to root for Yu's arm to fall off.
I guess now I'll just have to root for Yu's arm to fall off.
If they don't want to trade prospects, there are still some free agents like Edwin Jackson, Kuroda, or Roy Oswalt that could slip int the middle of the order and eat innings. I would also look at signing Jon Garland to a non-guaranteed contract, and having him begin the season on the DL.
They also have a whole pile of horses in the system that will be ready next year, so patience may be the key here.
They also have a whole pile of horses in the system that will be ready next year, so patience may be the key here.
Definitely dont like rooting against Yu. But there are plenty of other options out there. I'd have been upset if a sub-record bid beat us but the bid is right near where I would have capped out.
Given the track record of all but a few Japanese players in The Majors, there is an equally good chance that we will all be thankful for the missed opportunity.
Yu could have been all right, as a Blue Jay. And it's a little frustrating to think that Yu could have been here, tonight! Yu could have been sweet as wine! But then again, who knows? Yu could have been a lady!
Makes Yu think.
Makes Yu think.
I guess now I'll just have to root for Yu's arm to fall off.
That's honourable.
What Yu puns were Yu going to use in Yur Darvish-bid-winning article?
It was titled "Yu Better Believe It - Get Ready for X Years of Bad Puns"
I am disappointed that the Jays did not sign Darvish, he would have been an interesting addition to the team.
My disappointment is offset by being relieved that the Jays did not end up paying over $20m per season to Darvish for five or six years. That would have been a mistake in my opinion.
My disappointment is offset by being relieved that the Jays did not end up paying over $20m per season to Darvish for five or six years. That would have been a mistake in my opinion.
As always, Gerry says it well. I wonder if this means that management doesn't think the team is quite ready yet or maybe they simply feel that the money would be better invested in a Josh Johnson or Matt Cain when they hit FA next year (assuming they do).
Ok so we're back to boring season again, lets start talking alternatives. My suggestions: 1. Sign Edwin Jackson/Oswalt, Beltran, Mike Gonzalez and Carlos Pena. This likely still costs less than Yu
2. Trade Deck McGuire, Aaron Sanchez, Eric Thames and Adam Lind/EE for Matt Garza (Lind/EE allowing them to ease the likes of Rizzo in)
3. Just sign Prince Fielder to a reasonable unreasonable amount (i.e 7/140).
I agree that an innings eater at the mid-back end of the rotation would be a good idea regardless. I like Jackson and Oswalt, and would check on the health status of Brandon Webb.
Sadly, I might even be satiated by Jon Garland at this time. Jesus what has the world come to?
I would have been totally content if the club had ended up spending $20 million for Darvish for 5 or 6 years. That does not mean that the bid was too low. I have no idea what Darvish's demands are; we will see if Texas actually signs him. The structure of this 3-way negotiation/bidding process makes it very, very challenging.
It is December, and there is still plenty of time for the club to be improved. I am happy that the club finished second in the Latos sweepstakes, as it suggests that management will not give up the farm in prospects simply to avoid spending money.
Edwin Jackson and Carlos Beltran would be nice additions, in my view.
It is December, and there is still plenty of time for the club to be improved. I am happy that the club finished second in the Latos sweepstakes, as it suggests that management will not give up the farm in prospects simply to avoid spending money.
Edwin Jackson and Carlos Beltran would be nice additions, in my view.
Well put Gerry. Darvish will end up costing the $51 million and then apparently about $75 million for 5 years which actually makes him the highest paid pitcher in baseball at about $25 million a year. To be only a $20 million/year pitcher, he'd have to accept under $10 million year which seems unlikely. He'd have been fun here, but the amount of money the Rangers are going to spend on him is just silly.
I wonder if this means that management doesn't think the team is quite ready yet or maybe they simply feel that the money would be better invested in a Josh Johnson or Matt Cain when they hit FA next year (assuming they do).
I doubt this has anything to do with it as front offices would have a limited idea of what organization or dollar amount they're bidding against. Due to the nature of the posting system, any team that placed a bid would have been happy to win it.
rfan8: The problem with waiting for next year is a) no guarantees of what is going to be available, b) you're competing against 29 other ball clubs for their services, c) The core pieces here, most importantly Bautista are all a year older and closer to leaving/getting expensive.
I am extremely disappointed. It isn't very often a team has a chance to install a top of the rotation starter, especially one who is only 25 years old and assured team control for 6 years, for cash only. I was quite sure Rogers saw this as a business opportunity to market the Jays, but apparently they felt Darvish was worth less than Dice-K was worth 4 years ago, despite the inflation of salaries and Darvish's career superiority.
That said, what this showed me, especially on Twitter, is there is a very large contingency of Jays fans out there, and they are hungry for a winner. They want to be excited about the Jays, and they want to see them play some exciting ball. That ball is in AA's court of what he does next - I fear if it follows the lines of payroll parameters, a huge opportunity will be lost to bring some relevance to this team from outside the loyal hardcore fans. If the team's second biggest move of the winter is trading for a Jeff Mathis and filling out the 40-man roster, that will be a pretty bitter pill to swallow, especially with the quality of talent that was available this year in FA.
I am extremely disappointed. It isn't very often a team has a chance to install a top of the rotation starter, especially one who is only 25 years old and assured team control for 6 years, for cash only. I was quite sure Rogers saw this as a business opportunity to market the Jays, but apparently they felt Darvish was worth less than Dice-K was worth 4 years ago, despite the inflation of salaries and Darvish's career superiority.
That said, what this showed me, especially on Twitter, is there is a very large contingency of Jays fans out there, and they are hungry for a winner. They want to be excited about the Jays, and they want to see them play some exciting ball. That ball is in AA's court of what he does next - I fear if it follows the lines of payroll parameters, a huge opportunity will be lost to bring some relevance to this team from outside the loyal hardcore fans. If the team's second biggest move of the winter is trading for a Jeff Mathis and filling out the 40-man roster, that will be a pretty bitter pill to swallow, especially with the quality of talent that was available this year in FA.
There are an almost infinite number of ways for the Jays to try to improve their team this off-season. Darvish was one of them, but no longer. So what's next?
I've been reading articles in the Star and the Globe and what have you about this whole extravaganza, and the writers--Blair, Griffin, Cox--all seem to think that there's some reason for Anthopoulos to reveal the size of the Jays' bid to the fans. No, there's not. Secrecy has worked well for Anthopoulos in the past and I see no reason why he should change the plan now. What those writers really mean is that they want to know so they can tell us and prove to us that they've still got the inside dope.
And then of course there's all this nonsense about, "Well, they've got to do something now! Fielder! Gonzalez! Jackson!" No, they don't. Anytime someone's trying to convince you that you have to do something! what you really have to do is calm down and stick to the plan. It is not time to panic. The Jays are not in bad shape. If they can make a good move, they should make it, just like always. If they can make a panicky move, they should not make it, just like always.
"But the fans! The fans want a winner! Now!"
The fans can eat applesauce. Just because everyone's all hepped up on goofballs is no reason to throw your best judgment out the window.
I've been reading articles in the Star and the Globe and what have you about this whole extravaganza, and the writers--Blair, Griffin, Cox--all seem to think that there's some reason for Anthopoulos to reveal the size of the Jays' bid to the fans. No, there's not. Secrecy has worked well for Anthopoulos in the past and I see no reason why he should change the plan now. What those writers really mean is that they want to know so they can tell us and prove to us that they've still got the inside dope.
And then of course there's all this nonsense about, "Well, they've got to do something now! Fielder! Gonzalez! Jackson!" No, they don't. Anytime someone's trying to convince you that you have to do something! what you really have to do is calm down and stick to the plan. It is not time to panic. The Jays are not in bad shape. If they can make a good move, they should make it, just like always. If they can make a panicky move, they should not make it, just like always.
"But the fans! The fans want a winner! Now!"
The fans can eat applesauce. Just because everyone's all hepped up on goofballs is no reason to throw your best judgment out the window.
but apparently they felt Darvish was worth less than Dice-K was worth 4
years ago, despite the inflation of salaries and Darvish's career
superiority.
Yes, the Blue Jays and every other team in baseball, including the Rangers.
Using Dice-K's posting fee ($51.1 million), inflation of 4% each year (which in baseball is probably conservative), and a superiority factor of 10% and you would end up with a bid of about $66 million.
The problem with that is that no one thinks the Dice-K bid was appropriate. Using the assumptions above, the winning Rangers' bid would assume Dice-K would have been valued at a posting of about $40 million.
Yes, the Blue Jays and every other team in baseball, including the Rangers.
Using Dice-K's posting fee ($51.1 million), inflation of 4% each year (which in baseball is probably conservative), and a superiority factor of 10% and you would end up with a bid of about $66 million.
The problem with that is that no one thinks the Dice-K bid was appropriate. Using the assumptions above, the winning Rangers' bid would assume Dice-K would have been valued at a posting of about $40 million.
Having said that, I'm disappointed that the Jays didn't get Darvish, particularly because the cost was only money (as opposed to trading prospects).
It makes me wonder what their bid was. If you view him as a fringe #1 or #2 starter you're probably paying CJ Wilson money of about $15 million/year. So $90 million over 6 years, assuming about half to the posting and half to the contract gets you to a $45 million bid.
Obviously the Jays went through the valuation process and bid only up to what they were comfortable with. I would assume that they when they landed on a number they asked "if Team X bids $1 million more than us, would we regret our bid?" and came up with a 'no' answer.
I would be curious to what the winning bid would be if it was an open auction. Presumably it'd be less ($1 more than the 2nd highest bid), but people act differently, I think, it that type of scenario.
It makes me wonder what their bid was. If you view him as a fringe #1 or #2 starter you're probably paying CJ Wilson money of about $15 million/year. So $90 million over 6 years, assuming about half to the posting and half to the contract gets you to a $45 million bid.
Obviously the Jays went through the valuation process and bid only up to what they were comfortable with. I would assume that they when they landed on a number they asked "if Team X bids $1 million more than us, would we regret our bid?" and came up with a 'no' answer.
I would be curious to what the winning bid would be if it was an open auction. Presumably it'd be less ($1 more than the 2nd highest bid), but people act differently, I think, it that type of scenario.
Well I would argue that Theo Epstein and the Boston Red Sox thought the bid for Dice-K was appropriate.
A.A. and many members of the Blue Jay Organization watched Darvish pitch a lot - much , much, much. If A.A. thought, at any time, Darvish was a better pitcher than Dice-K, he did not show it in the posting. If Darvish is that good, he should cost more than Dice-K, including in the Posting. How Texas wins with just a $600 K increase to the $51.1 MM benchmark figure, is unbelievable. Did A.A.'s judgement fail him, or, did he 'cheap out' as he did with the Mat Latos deal. We'll never know for sure, even after A.A. explains it later, but it does make me question his judgement - it was only money!
We still need a Front-Line Starter and unless A.A. becomes bold we won`t acquire one. (Garza doesn`t interest me, he has trouble winning games http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garzama01.shtml and don`t tell me about 2010, ``even a blind squirrel will find a nut``.) This ``penny pinching`` in trades is troubling, even prospects have a ``best-before`` date, ie: Snider, Drabek, Hechavarria, Cooper, Jeroloman, to name a few. Can A.A. get King Felix now with the right package? Yes, he can, but he won`t try.
There was a lot of money ear-marked for the Darvish posting/signing (easily estimated at $100 MM). When does it go, because once it`s there, it still exists. Who do they spend it on - but spend it they must, if only to avoid a backlass for the fans.
A.A. crushed our hope, he needs to restore it.
Richard. What we feel is not Anthopoulos's problem. His job is to build the best team he can regardless of how many people have sads about Yu Darvish. If he can do it, everyone will be happy. If he can't then he'll get fired and the next guy will get a shot. In the meantime there's no point in acting intemperately.
I am interested to know how AA's valuation process works, maybe when he is out of baseball he will reveal some of it (I would love to read his biography in 20 years).
I really did see this as business acquisition by Rogers more-so than a baseball acquisition by the Jays. Is there a value placed on the Jays being the top dog of the posting system? Is there a trickle-down effect of free agents wanting to come here. Does Toronto have a reputation as a bridesmaid team, and that's now been magnified? Is buzz about the team worth something? Is there a foreign market out there that signing Darvish would have capitalized on? I have no idea - my hope is AA knew it, and can parlay it to the fans, because this one stings a whole lot more than Chapman.
And Matthew E, I think it's a little callous to tell fans they can eat applesauce. If AA is giving the dog-and-pony show about payroll parameters and needing attendance to justify payroll, while at the same time doing little to accelerate the process to bring in those fans, he's going to find it a very difficult challenge to overcome. You're a hardcore fan, and you understand the slow and often painful process of rookie development, but try selling a flex-pack to Joe Blow when your second biggest move of the off-season is Jeff Mathis, and you have 3 clear teams above you in your own division, and at least 1 or 2 others in other divisions in the wildcard (plus KC who is developmentally ahead of us).
I really did see this as business acquisition by Rogers more-so than a baseball acquisition by the Jays. Is there a value placed on the Jays being the top dog of the posting system? Is there a trickle-down effect of free agents wanting to come here. Does Toronto have a reputation as a bridesmaid team, and that's now been magnified? Is buzz about the team worth something? Is there a foreign market out there that signing Darvish would have capitalized on? I have no idea - my hope is AA knew it, and can parlay it to the fans, because this one stings a whole lot more than Chapman.
And Matthew E, I think it's a little callous to tell fans they can eat applesauce. If AA is giving the dog-and-pony show about payroll parameters and needing attendance to justify payroll, while at the same time doing little to accelerate the process to bring in those fans, he's going to find it a very difficult challenge to overcome. You're a hardcore fan, and you understand the slow and often painful process of rookie development, but try selling a flex-pack to Joe Blow when your second biggest move of the off-season is Jeff Mathis, and you have 3 clear teams above you in your own division, and at least 1 or 2 others in other divisions in the wildcard (plus KC who is developmentally ahead of us).
You know who should be blamed for all the disappointment among Blue Jays fans today?
Albert Pujols and Arte Moreno. I would suggest that without the Angels doing that enormous deal, perhaps the Rangers bid for Darvish wouldn't be as high as it was.
If the Angels had waited to do their deals until this week, the Rangers may not have ever made such a large bid for Darvish after losing Wilson to their rivals along with Pujols a few hundred that precipitated the start of the Darvish sweepstakes and threatened the Rangers to defend their AL and AL West titles.
Albert Pujols and Arte Moreno. I would suggest that without the Angels doing that enormous deal, perhaps the Rangers bid for Darvish wouldn't be as high as it was.
If the Angels had waited to do their deals until this week, the Rangers may not have ever made such a large bid for Darvish after losing Wilson to their rivals along with Pujols a few hundred that precipitated the start of the Darvish sweepstakes and threatened the Rangers to defend their AL and AL West titles.
oops, didn't finish editing that post....
If the Angels had waited to do their deals until this week, the Rangers may not have ever made such a large bid for Darvish. But after losing Wilson to their rivals along with Pujols for a few hundred million dollars, an event that precipitated the start of the Darvish sweepstakes and threatened the Rangers to defend their AL and AL West titles, Nolan Ryan was not to back down from that fight.
Stupid Angels. They screwed Jays fans ever so inadvertently.
If the Angels had waited to do their deals until this week, the Rangers may not have ever made such a large bid for Darvish. But after losing Wilson to their rivals along with Pujols for a few hundred million dollars, an event that precipitated the start of the Darvish sweepstakes and threatened the Rangers to defend their AL and AL West titles, Nolan Ryan was not to back down from that fight.
Stupid Angels. They screwed Jays fans ever so inadvertently.
"I would be curious to what the winning bid would be if it was an open auction. Presumably it'd be less ($1 more than the 2nd highest bid), but people act differently, I think, it that type of scenario."
I would expect an open and competitive bidding process to fetch a higher price. When the person with the asset being bid on controls the auction process and wants to fetch a high price, they normally opt for an open auction. Conversely, when the buyer controls the auction process and wants a lower price, they tend to chose closed or "sealed bid" competitive processes (i.e. construction contracts, any tendering situation).
Imagine AA had bid 50, and was faced with Texas's bid of $51.7M. Surely his reaction would be to move to $52M? And then another bidder might top that, and so on and so forth. It won't go on ad infinitum, but generally a higher price will be fetched.
Given DiceK's posting fee was 51.1, I'm surprised Darvish won with 51.7, if in fact that's what it was. Everyone thinks he'll be better. I would have thought the winning bid would be 55 mill, maybe even pushing 60 or so.
His job is to build the best team he can regardless of how many people have sads about Yu Darvish.
Don't those two things, at least in this case, go hand in hand? The best team he can build had an open opportunity to include a 25-year old free agent under control for 6 years, and in this case, they failed to do so. The 2012 Jays do not look like the best team he can build, in fact, they look an awful lot like the 2011 Blue Jays with a new bench of fringe players.
I hope by March I can take this back and say the team looks like something exciting, but not taking a dip in the free agent pond when the water was so rich in talent doesn't exactly spring hopes eternal.
Don't those two things, at least in this case, go hand in hand? The best team he can build had an open opportunity to include a 25-year old free agent under control for 6 years, and in this case, they failed to do so. The 2012 Jays do not look like the best team he can build, in fact, they look an awful lot like the 2011 Blue Jays with a new bench of fringe players.
I hope by March I can take this back and say the team looks like something exciting, but not taking a dip in the free agent pond when the water was so rich in talent doesn't exactly spring hopes eternal.
fozzy: It is going to take as long as it is going to take. It doesn't matter what anybody says. It is going to take as long as it is going to take. If Anthopoulos tries to spin that, he will just be distracting people from how long it is really going to take, and eventually they will figure out that they have been spun. The Jays are not going to be big winners for a while yet, and there is no way around that, and it doesn't matter what anybody says about it, and it doesn't matter how the fans feel about it.
"There are an almost infinite number of ways for the Jays to try to
improve their team this off-season. Darvish was one of them, but no
longer. So what's next?
I've been reading articles in the Star and the Globe and what have you about this whole extravaganza, and the writers--Blair, Griffin, Cox--all seem to think that there's some reason for Anthopoulos to reveal the size of the Jays' bid to the fans. No, there's not. Secrecy has worked well for Anthopoulos in the past and I see no reason why he should change the plan now. What those writers really mean is that they want to know so they can tell us and prove to us that they've still got the inside dope.
And then of course there's all this nonsense about, "Well, they've got to do something now! Fielder! Gonzalez! Jackson!" No, they don't. Anytime someone's trying to convince you that you have to do something! what you really have to do is calm down and stick to the plan. It is not time to panic. The Jays are not in bad shape. If they can make a good move, they should make it, just like always. If they can make a panicky move, they should not make it, just like always.
"But the fans! The fans want a winner! Now!"
The fans can eat applesauce. Just because everyone's all hepped up on goofballs is no reason to throw your best judgment out the window."
I agree. And extra credit for the 'hepped up on goofballs' phrase.
I've been reading articles in the Star and the Globe and what have you about this whole extravaganza, and the writers--Blair, Griffin, Cox--all seem to think that there's some reason for Anthopoulos to reveal the size of the Jays' bid to the fans. No, there's not. Secrecy has worked well for Anthopoulos in the past and I see no reason why he should change the plan now. What those writers really mean is that they want to know so they can tell us and prove to us that they've still got the inside dope.
And then of course there's all this nonsense about, "Well, they've got to do something now! Fielder! Gonzalez! Jackson!" No, they don't. Anytime someone's trying to convince you that you have to do something! what you really have to do is calm down and stick to the plan. It is not time to panic. The Jays are not in bad shape. If they can make a good move, they should make it, just like always. If they can make a panicky move, they should not make it, just like always.
"But the fans! The fans want a winner! Now!"
The fans can eat applesauce. Just because everyone's all hepped up on goofballs is no reason to throw your best judgment out the window."
I agree. And extra credit for the 'hepped up on goofballs' phrase.
Don't those two things, at least in this case, go hand in hand? The best
team he can build had an open opportunity to include a 25-year old free
agent under control for 6 years
But is Darvish going to be worth all that money? We don't know, but the Jays must have had some kind of figure in mind, where they said, "You know what, if he costs any more than X, we just don't want him." For all we know, the Jays saw the amount of the winning bid, laughed, and said, "Go ahead, if you want him that much, and good luck!"
I mean, I'm willing to assume that Darvish will be worth having on your team. Plausible, maybe even probable. But not at any price. Nobody's that good.
But is Darvish going to be worth all that money? We don't know, but the Jays must have had some kind of figure in mind, where they said, "You know what, if he costs any more than X, we just don't want him." For all we know, the Jays saw the amount of the winning bid, laughed, and said, "Go ahead, if you want him that much, and good luck!"
I mean, I'm willing to assume that Darvish will be worth having on your team. Plausible, maybe even probable. But not at any price. Nobody's that good.
A.A. thought, at any time, Darvish was a better pitcher than Dice-K, he did not show it in the posting.
That's a specious line of reasoning. You are presuming that AA would have been in agreement with the amount posted for Matsuzaka. Perhaps his valuation methodology would have resulted in only a 25MM posting for Matsuzaka. Perhaps he posted 45MM for Darvish, believing Darvish to be a much better pitcher. You are making a lot of assertions based on unfounded assumptions.
A.A. crushed our hope, he needs to restore it.
I am hoping that this is intentional hyperbole meant to be ironic.
It is going to take as long as it is going to take. It doesn't matter
what anybody says. It is going to take as long as it is going to take.
If Anthopoulos tries to spin that, he will just be distracting people
from how long it is really going to take, and eventually they will
figure out that they have been spun. The Jays are not going to be big
winners for a while yet, and there is no way around that, and it doesn't
matter what anybody says about it, and it doesn't matter how the fans
feel about it.
This is a tough line to spin when it is going up against the general manager asking more fans to come out and support the team so it can spend money. And it's even tougher when your main competition is not only doing the things you are doing well just as well, but supplementing it with the tools given to them by MLB in the draft and the posting process.
re his worth: I have no idea what Darvish will be worth, but if the silent treatment from AA in regards to what they feel continues, hearsay and conjecture will fill that void and only increase the anger that is spreading today in the fanbase. AA was remiss in that his biggest regret wasn't offering more for Chapman last year. This just feels like another opportunity gone.
This is a tough line to spin when it is going up against the general manager asking more fans to come out and support the team so it can spend money. And it's even tougher when your main competition is not only doing the things you are doing well just as well, but supplementing it with the tools given to them by MLB in the draft and the posting process.
re his worth: I have no idea what Darvish will be worth, but if the silent treatment from AA in regards to what they feel continues, hearsay and conjecture will fill that void and only increase the anger that is spreading today in the fanbase. AA was remiss in that his biggest regret wasn't offering more for Chapman last year. This just feels like another opportunity gone.
I must admit the fan in me is somewhat disappointed this morning. It was great to see the team appearing to be willing to spend and run with the big dogs again. Let's face it, most of us have an emotional investment with this team so it's been quite the ride these past few days.
The analytical part of my brain though, is a little bit more cautious about this whole affair. Dan Symborski had his Yu projections up on ESPN insider this morning. He had Darvish worth as a mean value set at $112 million, and up to $ 138 million as an optimistic projection. Given that he makes $ 9 million in Japan, and you'd think he'd want 12-14 per year to come here ( in fact his agents have tried to set the bar at the minimum $ 75 million C.J. Wilson signed for), you'd think with the posting fee he's going to cost $ 125 million over 5 years, hardly a value discount.
I think he's going to be a star though ( top 10 MLB pitcher), still with pitchers he's only one throw away from blowing up. Signing him would represent quite a monetary gamble. In fact for me Fielder is the much more safe signing. The ancillary Japanese revenue he would bring in as a non position player would be somewhat limited.
I'd love to have seen him as a Blue Jay, I just think Beeston and AA have only one shot at getting this right. Rogers seems to be like most corporate boards quite a conservative lot, another B.J. Ryan like fiasco would be hard for them to accept.
The analytical part of my brain though, is a little bit more cautious about this whole affair. Dan Symborski had his Yu projections up on ESPN insider this morning. He had Darvish worth as a mean value set at $112 million, and up to $ 138 million as an optimistic projection. Given that he makes $ 9 million in Japan, and you'd think he'd want 12-14 per year to come here ( in fact his agents have tried to set the bar at the minimum $ 75 million C.J. Wilson signed for), you'd think with the posting fee he's going to cost $ 125 million over 5 years, hardly a value discount.
I think he's going to be a star though ( top 10 MLB pitcher), still with pitchers he's only one throw away from blowing up. Signing him would represent quite a monetary gamble. In fact for me Fielder is the much more safe signing. The ancillary Japanese revenue he would bring in as a non position player would be somewhat limited.
I'd love to have seen him as a Blue Jay, I just think Beeston and AA have only one shot at getting this right. Rogers seems to be like most corporate boards quite a conservative lot, another B.J. Ryan like fiasco would be hard for them to accept.
There's going to be a real crisis with fans if the team does not start investing now for the season ahead.
To casual fans like me, there's a real disconnect between the Jays' efforts to invest an estimated $125 million in getting Yu Darvish, and AA's and Beeston's "payroll parameters" language. Fans now know the taps can be turned on for large amounts of money.
(Oddly, most members of the local media (e.g., Griffin, Arthur) seem to have battened down the hatches and agreed that the Jays shouldn't be spending, and need to be fiscally prudent. Funny how I didn't hear them saying Darvish was a bad idea when he was still a possibility. Either way, the gap between the Jays' language and actions could use some exploration from our local media professionals.)
Whether AA was forced to do this by Rogers or not, the fans have noticed. If there's no investment, attendance could take a major hit next year.
To casual fans like me, there's a real disconnect between the Jays' efforts to invest an estimated $125 million in getting Yu Darvish, and AA's and Beeston's "payroll parameters" language. Fans now know the taps can be turned on for large amounts of money.
(Oddly, most members of the local media (e.g., Griffin, Arthur) seem to have battened down the hatches and agreed that the Jays shouldn't be spending, and need to be fiscally prudent. Funny how I didn't hear them saying Darvish was a bad idea when he was still a possibility. Either way, the gap between the Jays' language and actions could use some exploration from our local media professionals.)
Whether AA was forced to do this by Rogers or not, the fans have noticed. If there's no investment, attendance could take a major hit next year.
Whoops, edit:
but supplementing it with the tools given to them by MLB in free agency and the posting process.
but supplementing it with the tools given to them by MLB in free agency and the posting process.
This is a tough line to spin when it is going up against the general manager asking more fans to come out and support the team so it can spend money. And it's even tougher when your main competition is not only doing the things you are doing well just as well, but supplementing it with the tools given to them by MLB in the draft and the posting process.
Yeah, well, welcome to the American League East. The facts on the ground are the facts on the ground.
the gap between the Jays' language and actions could use some exploration from our local media professionals.
Sure, why not? That ought to be good for a few laughs.
Yeah, well, welcome to the American League East. The facts on the ground are the facts on the ground.
the gap between the Jays' language and actions could use some exploration from our local media professionals.
Sure, why not? That ought to be good for a few laughs.
Let me start this with a disclaimer since people have failed to understand this with some of my recent posts. I am a patient man, I am prepared to wait until next year if it is going to make this team more competitive long-term. I don't need Prince, Yu, Gonzalez, Garza, Oswalt, or anyone to keep me interested in the Jays. I would LIKE some form of improvement, but quite frankly I will be watching, listening to and attending many games next season regardless. I am not the one Rogers needs to be concerned with.
That being said, if Rogers or AA decide to take Matthew E's approach then we are going to get a stark lesson in "Payroll paramaters" going forward. We have a VERY educated fan base who can recognize when a team commits to winning and when it doesn't. Most people accepted that our previous situation didn't warrent spending to compete since we were never going to compete with the Yanks and Sox in that department. But now? Our team is pretty decent and, more importantly, the rules have changed. This whole town knows it and that is why there is so much interest in Fielder and Yu and Beltran and Gonzalez etc... We don't need a perfect storm (ala Rays) to make the postseason anymore we just have to be good. Any of those guys makes us good. A situation like this DEMANDS a change in approach. If fans don't see some commitment from ownership (even token) then we are going to see a dip in attendance and interest. Winning gets us to 35000+, but a commitment to improve will maintain and build our fanbase in the meantime.
Whether AA was forced to do this by Rogers or not, the fans have noticed. If there's no investment, attendance could take a major hit next year.
Scooter, I agree that there's something fishy going on. As much as we like to believe that AA is his own man, his language of late has reeked of corporatespeak.
I would imagine that AA knows, in his heart of hearts, that fans will come out to support a winner, and that the idea of fans coming out first, so that the team can spend enough to become a winner is, well, ludicrous. Sadly, this all smacks of corporate puppetry.
And as far as the oft-parsed "payroll parameters" goes, his Rogers overlords may not have used that specific language with him, but that language may be his method of communicating his restraints to Blue Jay fandom. Kind of like a hostage saying one thing but eyeblinking a contradictory message in Morse code.
A common theme on these boards has been Rogers' true position on spending. The "money will be there" talk is sounding a little tinny. While there's no reason to suspect a major corporation of embellishing the truth (so out of character would such behaviour be!), it's difficult to not be cynical in this instance.
There is every chance that Darvish isn't worth 20MM a year. But, as a fan, if my choices are Rogers spending that money on Darvish and Rogers not spending that money at all, well, that's an easy call. I'm not kept up at nights over a major corporation's bottom line.
The ``I am right`` group is out in full force today, justifying the loss of Darvish. No one mentions that if Darvish is better Pitcher than Dice-K, shouldn`t the post for Darvish be bigger than Dice-K`s. Someone will think this. Just decide on how much more, and make the bid. It`s not losing Darvish than bothers me as much as the $51.7 MM - just $600 K more.
Of course the ``I am right`` group has nothing constructive to say - like who might be worth going after. We still need a Front-Line Starter, E.I.G., LOOGY, Middle-of-the-order Bat. And where does the Darvish money go? `splain that Lucy.
We have a VERY educated fan base
I disagree. I think you are mistaking a small number of devotees of on-line forums with the typical fan who buys tickets and watches games on TV. The intersection area on the Venn diagram is not a big one.
Ever listen to a Wilner call-in show? That subset of people is far more rabid than the typical fan, but the opinions you hear expressed can hardly be characterized as educated.
I don't know why I feel this way, but I am incredibly sports depressed by the Jays losing out on Yu. Maybe it was the media building up my hopes or maybe it was unjust optimism about ownership being completely committed to the team. Most of all though, it was Darvish. The aura that exists around this guy seems to be more than media propaganda. He is looked upon by people in Japan as a hero at only 25. His fiery mound presence gives you the chills. Best of all, who knows how good or possibly bad he could be? Not me, but I sure wouldn't of minded wasting a greedy cable companies money to go along for the ride.
Scene One:
Location: Deep in the bowels of the Rogers Center - in a musty room just beneath the Video Room
Ambient noise:
The low rumbling of machinery
Then one hears:
AA: "Cackle, Cackle" (both cackles with a Greek/Canadian accent)
Tony: "Master, it worked, IT WORKED!"
AA: Crosses the floor over towards his trusted servant (dragging his left leg as he walks): "Yes my precious! Yes my Precious." Stops by Tony and gives him an affectionate pat on the head. "Now we can get to the REAL Plan A!"
AA unrolls a 6' long parchment on the table and he and Tony gather beside it staring with rapture at it - while AA lovingly strokes it flat on the table...
AA: "Now we can get our REAL TARGET! Yoenis Cespedes!"
Tony: (Almost swooning as he shouts) "Yes Master - he of the 50" vertical jump! Roger's will LOVE us - not only will he hit 50 homers for the Jays but he can also play for the Rapters and act as a goal post during Leafs practices!"
AA: "Cackel, cackle...Yes my precious...the perfect three sport addition all for the price of one Cuban defector!"
Tony (looking lovingly at AA): "If only Ted were alive!"
Tony and AA: (both with little tears running down their cheeks): "To Ted!" they shout...
The camera pulls back up through they Rogers Center open roof as the wind slowly drowns out two voices yelling : "To Ted! To Ted!"
End of Scene One
Location: Deep in the bowels of the Rogers Center - in a musty room just beneath the Video Room
Ambient noise:
The low rumbling of machinery
Then one hears:
AA: "Cackle, Cackle" (both cackles with a Greek/Canadian accent)
Tony: "Master, it worked, IT WORKED!"
AA: Crosses the floor over towards his trusted servant (dragging his left leg as he walks): "Yes my precious! Yes my Precious." Stops by Tony and gives him an affectionate pat on the head. "Now we can get to the REAL Plan A!"
AA unrolls a 6' long parchment on the table and he and Tony gather beside it staring with rapture at it - while AA lovingly strokes it flat on the table...
AA: "Now we can get our REAL TARGET! Yoenis Cespedes!"
Tony: (Almost swooning as he shouts) "Yes Master - he of the 50" vertical jump! Roger's will LOVE us - not only will he hit 50 homers for the Jays but he can also play for the Rapters and act as a goal post during Leafs practices!"
AA: "Cackel, cackle...Yes my precious...the perfect three sport addition all for the price of one Cuban defector!"
Tony (looking lovingly at AA): "If only Ted were alive!"
Tony and AA: (both with little tears running down their cheeks): "To Ted!" they shout...
The camera pulls back up through they Rogers Center open roof as the wind slowly drowns out two voices yelling : "To Ted! To Ted!"
End of Scene One
I think the Darvish money should be spent on an E.I.G. I don't know what that is, but I think we need one.
Well said, Chuck. We all know that spending per se (Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, B.J. Ryan) isn't the path to success. But not spending in and of itself isn't the path either. And while Bauxites are knowledgeable enough to take the long-term view on AA's building plans, the Darvish situation has demonstrated to casual fans that the organization itself (even if it is Rogers rather than AA) is willing to jump start the process.
However unwillingly, I find myself nodding in agreement at Cox's article this morning.
However unwillingly, I find myself nodding in agreement at Cox's article this morning.
I agree with most everything Chuck has said. Matthew E's "the fans can eat applesauce" is silly if you don't believe the "we'll be able to spend after the fans come back" line, but downright preposterous if you do believe it.
Chuck I respectfully disagree about our fan base. They are educated, or rather they are educated enough to know when the cards are stacked against you and when they are not. They don't need to know Yu Darvish's ERA the past 5 years to know that buying him would show a commitment to winning.
Also, EIG is eight inning guy. And yes, we do need one although not at 20 million a season.
One solution I have if we only want to spend money and not sacrifice picks (i.e. akin to the Yu Darvish signing) is to deal Teahen and a token prospect (Jenkins maybe) for Johan Santana. He's a true, AL-proven ACE who has shown an ability to come back from surgery before.
Re: Wilner
I've never listened to a radio call in show on any network related to any topic that brought out the best and brightest of its target audience. Wilner is no different, if anything he pre-empts the good calls in favour of the loud, boisterous crowd.
Matthew E's "the fans can eat applesauce" is silly if you don't believe
the "we'll be able to spend after the fans come back" line, but
downright preposterous if you do believe it.
Well, I don't think the fans are coming back no matter what happens, so I set that aside, but I still disagree. Whether they spend or don't spend, it's silly to change the plan just because everybody's upset about losing Darvish. Whatever they do they should do for a good reason, and emotional reactions are not good reasons.
Well, I don't think the fans are coming back no matter what happens, so I set that aside, but I still disagree. Whether they spend or don't spend, it's silly to change the plan just because everybody's upset about losing Darvish. Whatever they do they should do for a good reason, and emotional reactions are not good reasons.
E.I.G. : is an Eighth Inning Guy, using 12 letters less.
It's not necessary to look at Darvish as a $20MM per year player.
Consider looking at the posting cost the same as if the team were surrendering trade assets for the player. How much would three highly rated young players of the Jays be worth, if it were possible to send them to Nippon Ham Fighters in exchange for Yu?
Consider looking at the posting cost the same as if the team were surrendering trade assets for the player. How much would three highly rated young players of the Jays be worth, if it were possible to send them to Nippon Ham Fighters in exchange for Yu?
My heart said: "Getting Darvish would be awesome". My head said: "Why would you pay for a guy who dominated AAA level talent in a foreign country $100M+?" I think we've seen that AA likes value transactions and I don't think the Darvish deal is good value. It would have made the coming season really interesting though.
AA was remiss in that his biggest regret wasn't offering more for Chapman last year.
Fozzy, I am hoping that you used the wrong word here as I fail to see how Anthopoulos was negligent with Chapman. His stated regret was not that he didn't just offer more money but that he did not have enough information to make a more informed bid. A non-trivial difference.
As for those looking for a quote/unquote token commitment by Rogers to winning, I would think that the pursuit of Latos and Darvish would represent such an attempt. The consensus appears to be that Toronto was extremely close on both which while disappointing due to the lack of success is also encouraging in and of itself. I will choose to interpret the pursuit of those players in conjunction with acquisitions of Rasmus last season and Santos this off-season as signs that the team is trying to compete in the now rather than the later. The counter point would of course be that those pursuits and transactions were a ruse, token gestures to give the appearance of competing. Given what I have seen from Anthopoulos I tend to disagree with that assessment.
" How much would three highly rated young players of the Jays be worth, if it were possible to send them to Nippon Ham Fighters in exchange for Yu?"
Not $51 million, that's for sure. The posting fee has to be viewed as part of the player's salary and at $25 million/year or so, that salary is just insane.
Not $51 million, that's for sure. The posting fee has to be viewed as part of the player's salary and at $25 million/year or so, that salary is just insane.
Mathew E, I seem to be agreeing with what you say. But your wording "it will take as long as it takes", I think WE All should tweak that a bit, put some kind of time table on it. I know this does not sound right, so let me give an example.
Romero has taken the next step, but others have not yet done that, like Morrow, Cecil & Snider. They cannot use small sample size for much longer.
If Morrow has 30 starts in 2012 then he is approaching 100 ML starts, how many more does AA give him.
The hitting lineup is very young and inexperienced, so IMO they will be growing in 2012. I don't see any way to avoid this cost in wins due to growing.
Today we have to see or sense that it will take a lot of wins to capture the division or 1 of 2 WC spots due to the stiff competition.
The SP rotation IMO is the answer, we have a lot of possibilities especially by July 1st when about 10 pitchers should have made 15 starts Jays & NH F Cats. The picture should be getting clearer. If Ogando, Pineda etc can break out so can some of our guys. But is 15 starts fair or should it be 20 like JoJo Reyes got, we could not demote him but he probably was blocking someone like Mills.
I am suggesting that 1 more bat & SP as mentioned & described will not overcome the unknown size of our growing pains. So if Lawrie has growing pains we can bring in a stop gap and let him play everyday in LV so that he still gets his ABs & if we are out of it in Sept we bring him back. That probably sounds sensible to many.
Romero has taken the next step, but others have not yet done that, like Morrow, Cecil & Snider. They cannot use small sample size for much longer.
If Morrow has 30 starts in 2012 then he is approaching 100 ML starts, how many more does AA give him.
The hitting lineup is very young and inexperienced, so IMO they will be growing in 2012. I don't see any way to avoid this cost in wins due to growing.
Today we have to see or sense that it will take a lot of wins to capture the division or 1 of 2 WC spots due to the stiff competition.
The SP rotation IMO is the answer, we have a lot of possibilities especially by July 1st when about 10 pitchers should have made 15 starts Jays & NH F Cats. The picture should be getting clearer. If Ogando, Pineda etc can break out so can some of our guys. But is 15 starts fair or should it be 20 like JoJo Reyes got, we could not demote him but he probably was blocking someone like Mills.
I am suggesting that 1 more bat & SP as mentioned & described will not overcome the unknown size of our growing pains. So if Lawrie has growing pains we can bring in a stop gap and let him play everyday in LV so that he still gets his ABs & if we are out of it in Sept we bring him back. That probably sounds sensible to many.
I think the Darvish money should be spent on an E.I.G. I don't know what that is, but I think we need one.
I think you mean an EEG, which stands for electroencephalography and it measures brain activity.
Coincidentally, I would love if any of you would know someone who has a diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder, inclusive of Asperger's, and would be interested in participating in a research study that uses EEG to better understand the brain activity of individuals with ASD.
You may click on my name to send a private email, if you please.
The counter point would of course be that those pursuits and transactions were a ruse, token gestures to give the appearance of competing.
I was with you until you erected this straw man. I think that Rasmus/Santos were relatively inexpensive, and potentially very clever, decisions made to help compete now. Shrewd, inexpensive decisions are commendable as long as competing on the cheap isn't the overriding strategy.
Whether they spend or don't spend, it's silly to change the plan just because everybody's upset about losing Darvish. Whatever they do they should do for a good reason, and emotional reactions are not good reasons.
With respect, you're conflating two different things. There is a difference between acting on an "emotional reaction" and acknowledging the fact that when you're selling a product, you need people to buy it. I don't think one would tell a struggling restaurant to stick to its cooking and not to worry if the items on the menu seem appealing or fairly priced.
There either is or isn't upside in this market, and increased attendance/ratings either do or don't matter. "The fans can eat applesauce" only makes sense if there isn't any realistic upside and if it wouldn't matter if there was.
Toronto dodged a bullet.
Not only was there no guarantee that Darvish would sign here (which would have led to a much more serious image problem than the mass pouting session presently underway), the money being talked about is ridiculous for what you get. He's a guy who faces sub-AAA lineups, and was the second best at that in Japan last year. He pitches once a week.
Using Goldstein's estimate of 60-70 in a 5 year deal with an FA guarantee after 5(I think it would have been worse here), the annualized salary/fee could be in excess of $24 million a year considering that 50 of that is in 2011. That's CC Sabathia money and is somewhat beyond the pale. The Rangers feel they're one piece away from getting the third strike in the WS, and that's a position where overpaying for that last piece makes some sense (although not $120 million of sense, in my view).
The most favourable assessments of Darvish, from Goldstein and Law, has been as a #2 starter. $120 million for a second starter is something that even the Yankees, who need a second starter and would benefit (unlike Toronto) from the fact that the posting fee doesn't count toward salary, wouldn't touch.
Comparisons to Felix Hernandez, a major league star, make no sense. Hernandez doesn't pitch to Dee Brown, Alex Cabrera and guys who can't hit as well as them. He pitches and succeeds at the major league level. Darvish has a chance to be very good, but he also has an equal chance to be the most expensive butt of jokes in baseball. I'll be interested to see what he's doing in 2015. Actually, I'll be interested to see what he looks like after two times through the league, when major league hitter, and major league scouts have had a look at him.
Darvish is the kind of guy that Rotisserie owners love to see because they know someone is going to wildly overpay based on their imagination. I'd love to be able to short Darvish over the next 5 years if there was a way of doing that.
Lastly, some people are upset because AA didn't exceed the Matsuzaka bid. Dice-K lasted 2 years in MLB. After his second year, he never won 10 games again. Last year he pitched 37 innings. Someone else posted that AA would make a 'value bid', based upon what would be the most they could reasonably see getting value from the contract, and I suspect and hope that's what happened. If he went higher than the low 30's it would have been a poor decision. Whether or not Darvish may be better than Dice-K is beyond the point. He's not at all valuable at that level of cost.
Not only was there no guarantee that Darvish would sign here (which would have led to a much more serious image problem than the mass pouting session presently underway), the money being talked about is ridiculous for what you get. He's a guy who faces sub-AAA lineups, and was the second best at that in Japan last year. He pitches once a week.
Using Goldstein's estimate of 60-70 in a 5 year deal with an FA guarantee after 5(I think it would have been worse here), the annualized salary/fee could be in excess of $24 million a year considering that 50 of that is in 2011. That's CC Sabathia money and is somewhat beyond the pale. The Rangers feel they're one piece away from getting the third strike in the WS, and that's a position where overpaying for that last piece makes some sense (although not $120 million of sense, in my view).
The most favourable assessments of Darvish, from Goldstein and Law, has been as a #2 starter. $120 million for a second starter is something that even the Yankees, who need a second starter and would benefit (unlike Toronto) from the fact that the posting fee doesn't count toward salary, wouldn't touch.
Comparisons to Felix Hernandez, a major league star, make no sense. Hernandez doesn't pitch to Dee Brown, Alex Cabrera and guys who can't hit as well as them. He pitches and succeeds at the major league level. Darvish has a chance to be very good, but he also has an equal chance to be the most expensive butt of jokes in baseball. I'll be interested to see what he's doing in 2015. Actually, I'll be interested to see what he looks like after two times through the league, when major league hitter, and major league scouts have had a look at him.
Darvish is the kind of guy that Rotisserie owners love to see because they know someone is going to wildly overpay based on their imagination. I'd love to be able to short Darvish over the next 5 years if there was a way of doing that.
Lastly, some people are upset because AA didn't exceed the Matsuzaka bid. Dice-K lasted 2 years in MLB. After his second year, he never won 10 games again. Last year he pitched 37 innings. Someone else posted that AA would make a 'value bid', based upon what would be the most they could reasonably see getting value from the contract, and I suspect and hope that's what happened. If he went higher than the low 30's it would have been a poor decision. Whether or not Darvish may be better than Dice-K is beyond the point. He's not at all valuable at that level of cost.
I find it impossible to know if this is a good or bad thing, because I don't know how good Darvish really is.
However, if AA's scouts loved him, saw him as a healthy, talented, legit #1/2 starter with skills and stuff that will translate well to the bigs, I think they missed a big opportunity to improve the team, generate fan interest, and (the opportunity cost aspect) prevent a playoff rival from getting better.
I am trying to see the glass as half full, but if Darvish becomes a top-flight starter and the Jays are still hovering around 83-88 wins in a few years, the decision not to enter a competitive bid could look pretty shortsighted. Not that Rogers Inc. will necessarily notice.
However, if AA's scouts loved him, saw him as a healthy, talented, legit #1/2 starter with skills and stuff that will translate well to the bigs, I think they missed a big opportunity to improve the team, generate fan interest, and (the opportunity cost aspect) prevent a playoff rival from getting better.
I am trying to see the glass as half full, but if Darvish becomes a top-flight starter and the Jays are still hovering around 83-88 wins in a few years, the decision not to enter a competitive bid could look pretty shortsighted. Not that Rogers Inc. will necessarily notice.
I just get tired of the Jays acting like small market team when they are the 4th biggest market in baseball.
I lived in Seattle when they had thier big season. The top top management was not dedicated to winning and they fell short. Pat Gillick left a little while later and now, look at them.
I really question the Jays commitment to winning vs thier commitment to making money.
Didn't mean to play in the straw Chuck, but rather was trying to acknowledge a generalized counter point to my own views based on some of the prevailing arguments I have witnessed recently. It was overly simplistic of me to imply the counter sentiment is Toronto is cheap if it doesn't either spend a significant amount of money in a transaction or isn't successful in said transaction.
whiterasta80:
Johan Santana (NY Mets: 6 Years,$137.5 MM: 2008-13, opt. 2014) was not re-signed by Minnesota, just because of money. There was a loss in effectiveness in his pitches (without his curve/breaking ball he`s got nothing) and a worry about his health.
His contract since acquired from Minnesota:
2008: 34 starts,16-7, 2.53, $19.0 MM;
2009: 25 starts, 13-9, 3.13, injured 21 August - Spring Training `10, $20.0 MM;
2010: 29 starts, 11-9, 2.98, injured 03 September - On, $21.0 MM;
2011: Did Not Play - still injured, $22.5 MM;
2012: Date of return unknown, $24.0 MM;
2013: $25.5 MM;
2014: club option: $25.0 MM, $5.5 MM buy out.
Someone wants to trade for Santana - WHY!
All I hope is that he is not a perennial Cy Young nominee for the next 5 years, cause that's the only way I'll think of this as a badly missed opportunity. Right now I just think of it as a good effort at bringing in a quality arm that just fell a bit short.
One thing I'll add regarding the Dice K bids. The Red Sox could have been miles ahead of everyone else's bid for all we know. Its a ridiculous system...
Its a ridiculous system...
For the buyer. Not bad for the seller.
ayjackson posted in the other thread that Bob Elliott said the Jays bid was north of 51.1m, but Elliott removed said information from his article.
Well, Griff is now onto the same thing.
"Sources in baseball insist that the Jays’ bid for the 25-year-old Japanese star was over $50 million, barely edged out by the winning bid of $51.7 million"
If true, AA must feel like he was punched in the gut.
Well, Griff is now onto the same thing.
"Sources in baseball insist that the Jays’ bid for the 25-year-old Japanese star was over $50 million, barely edged out by the winning bid of $51.7 million"
If true, AA must feel like he was punched in the gut.
That would feel like a gut punch. They were *that* close.
OTOH, if true, that does indicate it was a serious bid, and the whole idea of "the money being there" isn't just talk.
OTOH, if true, that does indicate it was a serious bid, and the whole idea of "the money being there" isn't just talk.
Its a ridiculous system...
It's actually better for the buyer than an open bid system, which is really the only alternative if you are going to permit any kind of competitive bidding process for the bargaining rights.
It's not dissimilar to how we buy our homes.
"For the buyer. Not bad for the seller."
I dunno. You'd think an actual bidding war, a one-upmanship contest among billionaires, could be quite profitable for the seller as well.
I dunno. You'd think an actual bidding war, a one-upmanship contest among billionaires, could be quite profitable for the seller as well.
Baseball should adopt a soccer style transfer market. Then we can try to find a Sheik and teach him to love baseball and Canada.
That AA was in on Darvish and Latos, sends a big signal that he wants another pitcher.
Darvish is a bad bet. I understand he's a got sexy name, people like to trot out the argument (which I don't particularly buy) that he'd increase the fan base in Japan, and like prospects he's easy to dream on.
But, dollars to donuts, Texas will wish they acquired Garza (um, responding to a comment above -- who cares about pitcher wins in this day and age?) or Gonzalez. They're better fits right now for that team. That they're available and now that Texas is unlikely to try and acquire them, is good news for Jays fans.
Darvish is a bad bet. I understand he's a got sexy name, people like to trot out the argument (which I don't particularly buy) that he'd increase the fan base in Japan, and like prospects he's easy to dream on.
But, dollars to donuts, Texas will wish they acquired Garza (um, responding to a comment above -- who cares about pitcher wins in this day and age?) or Gonzalez. They're better fits right now for that team. That they're available and now that Texas is unlikely to try and acquire them, is good news for Jays fans.
AA was remiss in that his biggest regret wasn't offering more for Chapman last year.
AA did say that, in 2010 I believe, right after Chapman arrived in the majors and was throwing 100 plus. I think if you asked AA today he would be less emphatic about losing Chapman. Chapman hasn't lived up to the expectations of him when he signed that deal. Is $5m a year for 50 innings of 1.30 WHIP a great deal?
Shrewd, inexpensive decisions are commendable as long as competing on the cheap isn't the overriding strategy.
Nailed it. I'm happy with most everything AA has done, but I want to see Rogers give him the resources so that he can be more aggressive. Add a reliable starter and a legitimate first baseman to what he's built thus far and the team can be viewed as a legitimate contender for 2012.
Nailed it. I'm happy with most everything AA has done, but I want to see Rogers give him the resources so that he can be more aggressive. Add a reliable starter and a legitimate first baseman to what he's built thus far and the team can be viewed as a legitimate contender for 2012.
With the upside & contract Chapman has, yes. CIN has only paid 5m so far for Chapman, and as a 23 year old LHP he gave up 2 HR in 50ip with a 12.8 k/9. Chapman's 30m is spread over 11 seasons which makes a HUGE difference when evaluating the contract.
AA on the Fan via conference call.
http://www.fan590.com/media.jsp?content=20111220_111007_8396
AA was in total stealth mode. He wouldn't even verify that they made a bid. Mentioned trade avenue verses free agent signings as a likely course of action. He put the damper on payroll expectations. Who knows, he's well aware it seems, that other teams/ agents monitor his statements so all of his declarations should be taken with a grain of salt.
http://www.fan590.com/media.jsp?content=20111220_111007_8396
AA was in total stealth mode. He wouldn't even verify that they made a bid. Mentioned trade avenue verses free agent signings as a likely course of action. He put the damper on payroll expectations. Who knows, he's well aware it seems, that other teams/ agents monitor his statements so all of his declarations should be taken with a grain of salt.
Christaylor I think you might be singing a different tune when it costs the Jays d'arnaud, gose, hutcinson, and syndergaard.
Alex and his Spin: http://www.fan590.com/media.jsp?content=20111220_111007_8396 .
Some thoughts and observations during a hectic day:
- All indications were that Toronto put in a serious bid, and were serious about signing Yu. So why all this hand-wringing and throwing around terms like 'cheap' and 'uncommitted'. AA was outbid in a BLIND auction, it happens (and happened to probably 20 other teams). Using the logic by some folks on this thread, the Yanks and Red-Sox must be even cheaper and not care about winning at all. The Sox should have bid 70M if they bid 51M on Dice-K!
- I really wanted Yu as a blue jay too... if he sucked, it would have really sucked and no additional Asian or other fans would be attending apart from some initial novelty interest. But if he was GREAT, the 'Yu phenomenon' would have been a very compelling draw... and non-Japanese Asians (like myself) would still take some pride in his abilities and results.
- No-one has talked much about his character/personality as a risk. When you're adding such a unique 'star-quality' element to your team, the potential to disrupt existing chemistry and dynamics increases dramatically. Yu might be a great MLB team player, or he might turn out to be self-absorbed, withdrawn, resentful primadonna... heck he might not like Toronto and demand a trade if he's not getting the kind of attention he wants or is used to. Also, the jays would have to deal with a caravan of Japanese and other reporters/interests travelling with them, and this could turn into a sideshow instead of a playoff spot.
- AA knows better than ANY of us just how close (or far) this team is from being a contender. And AA has also made it clear that he wants to build up for a long-run, not a 2 year successful blip in the radar. He's not going to shoot himself in the foot in order to win THIS YEAR. Having said that, I believe he'll make some more significant moves this offseason that will help short-term without impairing the future (like Rasmus, Santos, Escobar).
- AA is all about value (not 'cost' which is very different). Scott Boras is all about getting unreasonable amounts of $$ for his clients (ie better value than they're worth). Thus imo AA and Boras will NEVER do a significant deal, so Prince is not coming to TO. I would never deal with Boras either, as his clients almost never provide good value. http://mlbreports.com/2011/07/03/boras/
- Which makes my hopes for Edwin Jackson and Beltran difficult, since they too are Boras clients...
- All indications were that Toronto put in a serious bid, and were serious about signing Yu. So why all this hand-wringing and throwing around terms like 'cheap' and 'uncommitted'. AA was outbid in a BLIND auction, it happens (and happened to probably 20 other teams). Using the logic by some folks on this thread, the Yanks and Red-Sox must be even cheaper and not care about winning at all. The Sox should have bid 70M if they bid 51M on Dice-K!
- I really wanted Yu as a blue jay too... if he sucked, it would have really sucked and no additional Asian or other fans would be attending apart from some initial novelty interest. But if he was GREAT, the 'Yu phenomenon' would have been a very compelling draw... and non-Japanese Asians (like myself) would still take some pride in his abilities and results.
- No-one has talked much about his character/personality as a risk. When you're adding such a unique 'star-quality' element to your team, the potential to disrupt existing chemistry and dynamics increases dramatically. Yu might be a great MLB team player, or he might turn out to be self-absorbed, withdrawn, resentful primadonna... heck he might not like Toronto and demand a trade if he's not getting the kind of attention he wants or is used to. Also, the jays would have to deal with a caravan of Japanese and other reporters/interests travelling with them, and this could turn into a sideshow instead of a playoff spot.
- AA knows better than ANY of us just how close (or far) this team is from being a contender. And AA has also made it clear that he wants to build up for a long-run, not a 2 year successful blip in the radar. He's not going to shoot himself in the foot in order to win THIS YEAR. Having said that, I believe he'll make some more significant moves this offseason that will help short-term without impairing the future (like Rasmus, Santos, Escobar).
- AA is all about value (not 'cost' which is very different). Scott Boras is all about getting unreasonable amounts of $$ for his clients (ie better value than they're worth). Thus imo AA and Boras will NEVER do a significant deal, so Prince is not coming to TO. I would never deal with Boras either, as his clients almost never provide good value. http://mlbreports.com/2011/07/03/boras/
- Which makes my hopes for Edwin Jackson and Beltran difficult, since they too are Boras clients...
I dunno. You'd think an actual bidding war, a one-upmanship contest among billionaires, could be quite profitable for the seller as well.
Yes, you're most certainly correct. The closed bid system leaves too much room for sober, analytic thought. A bidding war opens the door for emotion in the decision-making process, and then the sky's the limit. Just like at eBay.
Re: Johan Santana. Part of it was just to generate some non-Yu discussion and part of it is serious. I think a Latos-style trade is the best approach to improve our pitching staff but, failing that, I'm not sure Santana is any more of a gamble than Yu would have been. In this case we're gambling on health instead of transfer of abilities. The advantages are that Santana is a guy we can for nothing, in fact we can probably dump Teahen's dead weight contract in the process. He's been borderline elite for the mets throughout the contract and has proven he can be successful in the AL.
Again the Chapman contract is not the slam dunk it appeared in 2010. AA might still do it but it is not a slam dunk and shouldn't be used to say AA should have bid higher on Darvish. Chapman signed Jan 10, 2010, he is one third through his six year contract, so he has "earned" approx $10m so far, ignoring the deferred payments.
Congrats to John Northey for having the closest guess.
Yup great guess John. Your $52M wiining guestimate to Tex was only $300K off. Can you tell us what the Jays do next? My guess is a deal with Oakland but not for who everyone thinks. I have a gut feeling that AA is after Devine or Balfour. Billy B has already stated that everyone is available except their young second baseman. I think Devine would be....well....devine.
If true, that means we lost by less than a million, give or take.
Somehow, that doesn't make me feel much better either. It would suggest we were out-manouevred.
He has earned 6.5m. The contract is still a slam dunk, and a GM like AA would leap at the opportunity to owe him the 23.5m remaining on his contract which is spread over 9 years (with 5 years of control).
Personally - I found the whole Yu Darvish thing to be hysterical.
Like throwing raw meat into a cage filled with 30,000 absolutely starving lions.
Just too funny. Only question now - who is the next piece of meat?
It would suggest we were out-manouevred.
... while trying to find a needle in a haystack, with the lights off, a blindfold, a white noise generator, and one hand tied behind the back.
In other words, it's a blind auction; there are no maneuvers to make past the first one.
Fair enough. It's still a better sign than a token bid, but I must be a cynic to suspect the bids could be so close to each other without Texas receiving an upper hand in information somehow.
"Christaylor I think you might be singing a different tune when it costs the Jays d'arnaud, gose, hutcinson, and syndergaard."
The Cubs gave up nothing close to this package and they were getting an extra year of Garza at a cheaper Arb2 price.
The Cubs gave up nothing close to this package and they were getting an extra year of Garza at a cheaper Arb2 price.
Grant Balfour has two years remaining on his contract in Oak ($4M in 2012 and a $4.5 Club option in 2013). There are no rumors that the Jays are interested in this soon to be 34 year old Australian born righty but I really hope that if they deal for Gonzalez, who like many of you I think is very over rated (with all of those walks, good luck against NY and Bost), that they can get Belfour included in the package.
I just don't see AA making a deal for Gonzalez alone when there are some good bulpen options available to make the deal more significant.
Balfour stats:
2011: 62IP, 59K, 44H, 20BB, 2.47ERA, 1.03 WHIP (OAK)
2010: 55IP, 56K, 43H, 17BB, 2.28ERA, 1.08 WHIP (TB)
Pretty consistant and he has had success in the AL East
Fair enough. It's still a better sign than a token bid, but I must be a cynic to suspect the bids could be so close to each other without Texas receiving an upper hand in information somehow.
If it were leaked out to Texas, it would have also leaked out to the media, and I didn't see any consistency in the media's guesses. I suspect both teams had 100 different numbers as to what the other guys might be doing, but no real way of differentiating... But that's just my guess.
Roy Oswalt just "reduced" his demands from a 3 year deal to a 1 year deal. More like, the market dictated that a 1 year deal is the best he was going to get but he is appealing to me. On a 1 year contract trying to re-prove himself. I think he would be a solid #3 style pitcher in the AL East with the potential to be a #2. (saw the bit about Oswalt reducing his demands on baseballmusings.com)
Yeah, put me in the Oswalt camp. That would give a nice boost to the rotation (especially if that uptick in velocity back to normal Oswalt levels in September is sustainable), while simultaneously giving the pitching prospects another year to develop.
I'd figure Oswalt should be the first option, with Garza as the second, considering the assumed cost to acquire him.
Not much else out there, unless Alex can pull another rabbit out of his hat.
If Chapman signed a six year contract in 2010, and if he pitched in the majors in 2010 and 2011, how does he have five years of control remaining?
Oswalt wants to have an impressive campaign so he can get a multiyear deal next year - I would think the AL east is not the place to buttress your numbers - he's likely looking for a more pitcher friendly environment
I, too, am disappointed. Adding talent for 'just' money, has a certain appeal...one that I'm sure New York & Boston (and as we've seen this off season, Angel) Fans are intimately familiar with.
So,why bother reiterating this? Why, to have an opportunity to put in a final pun, of course!
(Soup-Nazi to 'Blue Jays Fans'): "No Darvish for Yu!"
If Chapman signed a six year contract in 2010, and if he pitched in the majors in 2010 and 2011, how does he have five years of control remaining?
He wasn't in the majors for all of '10 and '11, so he doesn't have a full 2 years of service time. When the 6 year deal ends, he'd still have his last arb year remaining.
Thanks...so he has 4 years and $23m left, or 5 years and 23m plus an arb year....but he doesn't have 5 years and 23m left. That was my point.
Also, doesn't he have some opt-outs, for if he thinks he can get a bigger arb payday?
The Jays outrighted Jim Hooey yesterday - I wonder if they're preparing to add someone to the 40 man roster (FA)
So, what bandwagon do we jump on now... Fielder is last month's flavour, Darvish was December's, so January will be...???
I just hope AA finds a way to do one of his surprise trades and brings in someone no one here has though of that we all go 'wow, great guy to get'. I still dream of Felix Hernandez and figure odds jumped with Darvish to Texas but not until Darvish signs on the dotted line. At that point I figure Seattle and Oakland will groan and start planning their rebuilds accordingly.
I just hope AA finds a way to do one of his surprise trades and brings in someone no one here has though of that we all go 'wow, great guy to get'. I still dream of Felix Hernandez and figure odds jumped with Darvish to Texas but not until Darvish signs on the dotted line. At that point I figure Seattle and Oakland will groan and start planning their rebuilds accordingly.
It makes sense that the Rangers would find themselves in an arms race with the Angels.
Now, I'd only be truly disappointed if Yu signs for less than 15 million a year.
Now, I'd only be truly disappointed if Yu signs for less than 15 million a year.
92-93, the price of pitching has gone up since last offseason and Garza has put up better numbers since then. Both Archer and Lee are higher ranked prospects then any of the four listed according to several prospect evaluators. The Rays also got Sam Fuld back who was all the rage for a while there and was a serviceable option for the Rays in left. They also got Brandon Guyer back who will likely break camp with the Rays next year and Robinson Chirnos who will likely share catching duties for the Rays next year.
Considering the package for Latos, you're looking at a package like that.
Considering the package for Latos, you're looking at a package like that.
"Stupid Angels. They screwed Jays fans ever so inadvertently."
That's it. Trade Vernon Wells to them again!
That's it. Trade Vernon Wells to them again!
Sorry to clarify, MLB.com had Archer ahead or d'Arnaud, and Lee one spot behind d'Arnaud at the end of the season, while Lee was ranked 22 at midseason by Baseball America and Gose was in the forties. Neither Archer or d'Arnaud were ranked at mid-season by BA.
I think the point here is Lee and Archer have some cache and the Cubs would be sure to get similar prospects back and then some for Garza. In my mind that's at least Gose, d'Arnaud, and Hutchison and a low-A prospect.
I think the point here is Lee and Archer have some cache and the Cubs would be sure to get similar prospects back and then some for Garza. In my mind that's at least Gose, d'Arnaud, and Hutchison and a low-A prospect.
Re Chapman
Chapman has a player option of $5 million for 2015. He could opt out and probably would if he pitches well enough through 2014 to think an arb award would be higher than $5 million, and would then set him up for a better second arb award in 2016. So, over the next five years, the Reds could be on the hook for $18-22 million in salary, depending on player option/arb awards, and $6.75 million in deferred bonuses. A total of about $25-29 million, with three years of deferred bonuses ($3.75 milllion total) still owed him. It's still a pretty good deal considering the improvement Chapman showed in AAA this year, the only question being what you would give up for a very talented guy who comes with some health issues. Of course, that's a pretty big question.
Chapman has a player option of $5 million for 2015. He could opt out and probably would if he pitches well enough through 2014 to think an arb award would be higher than $5 million, and would then set him up for a better second arb award in 2016. So, over the next five years, the Reds could be on the hook for $18-22 million in salary, depending on player option/arb awards, and $6.75 million in deferred bonuses. A total of about $25-29 million, with three years of deferred bonuses ($3.75 milllion total) still owed him. It's still a pretty good deal considering the improvement Chapman showed in AAA this year, the only question being what you would give up for a very talented guy who comes with some health issues. Of course, that's a pretty big question.
Well, AA just said on the Fan 590 that he thinks the Jays can compete without substantially increasing payroll. Doesn't want to talk about whether they bid on Darvish because of the impact it would have on negotiations for other players - he had one agent call him today saying that he figured the Jays had boatloads of money to spend, based on all the talk about how much they were rumoured to have bid for Darvish.
I'd love to see them add Oswalt. Beltran would look mighty good in LF and batting 3rd, with JB moving to 4th. If they could do those 2 moves, and add a bullpen guy, they're right there, but I'm certainly not holding my breath - I get the impression the budget just isn't there.
Too bad about Darvish - that would have been nice, but I never really thought the Jays were big players for him. Just doesn't seem like the value approach that AA has been utilizing.
still a pretty good deal considering the improvement Chapman showed in AAA this year
Huh?
I suspect we shouldn't expect anyone brought in who is past 27 in age this winter except as a stop-gap measure (ie: middle relievers, backups, platoon partners).
From the sounds of it AA plans to build on the cheap and young until the Jays actually win 90 games, then sign an older guy or two. Not as much fun, but it does follow the only blueprint that worked here - the Gillick one.
For example, 1983, the first year the Jays weren't in last place, a then team peak of 89 wins. 30+'ers on the team with a significant role were Ernie Whitt (expansion draft), Dave Collins (one of the biggest trades in Jays history also got Fred McGriff, Mike Morgan for 2 relievers), and Cliff Johnson (DH acquired for the Jays old DH in a 1-1 trade). Pitchers over 30 were Doyle Alexander (released by the Yankees) and Randy Moffitt (free agent, minimal cost, his final ML season). That winter Gillick got Dennis Lamp (free agent, big signing at the time). The next winter after another 89 win season they went nuts and did the big Griffin/Collins for Caudill deal (a solid closer at the time), signed Gary Lavelle as a free agent (solid middle man), and traded for both Al Oliver and Cliff Johnson (who left as a free agent) mid-season.
Yet it was still kids emerging who moved the team over the top. A young Tom Henke, Jimmy Key in his first season starting, Jesse Barfield given an everyday job for the first time, Cecil Fielder coming up and hitting over 300, Tony Fernandez playing everyday for the first time. That was the difference, not the old guys (ERA+ Lavelle 139 & Caudill 144 but both were minor compared to Henke's 213; Oliver a 76 OPS+, Johnson an 81).
AA needs to stick to his plan. Keep flexible if an ideal piece like Darvish is available but don't go insane to get that piece if it kills the team overall. I'd love to see Prince Fielder here, same with many other major free agents. However, what I really want is for another 1983-1993 window to open - a long period of contending year-in year-out not another Ash or JPR era of quick fixes to make fans happy rather than waiting until the kids are ready and adding the needed pieces.
From the sounds of it AA plans to build on the cheap and young until the Jays actually win 90 games, then sign an older guy or two. Not as much fun, but it does follow the only blueprint that worked here - the Gillick one.
For example, 1983, the first year the Jays weren't in last place, a then team peak of 89 wins. 30+'ers on the team with a significant role were Ernie Whitt (expansion draft), Dave Collins (one of the biggest trades in Jays history also got Fred McGriff, Mike Morgan for 2 relievers), and Cliff Johnson (DH acquired for the Jays old DH in a 1-1 trade). Pitchers over 30 were Doyle Alexander (released by the Yankees) and Randy Moffitt (free agent, minimal cost, his final ML season). That winter Gillick got Dennis Lamp (free agent, big signing at the time). The next winter after another 89 win season they went nuts and did the big Griffin/Collins for Caudill deal (a solid closer at the time), signed Gary Lavelle as a free agent (solid middle man), and traded for both Al Oliver and Cliff Johnson (who left as a free agent) mid-season.
Yet it was still kids emerging who moved the team over the top. A young Tom Henke, Jimmy Key in his first season starting, Jesse Barfield given an everyday job for the first time, Cecil Fielder coming up and hitting over 300, Tony Fernandez playing everyday for the first time. That was the difference, not the old guys (ERA+ Lavelle 139 & Caudill 144 but both were minor compared to Henke's 213; Oliver a 76 OPS+, Johnson an 81).
AA needs to stick to his plan. Keep flexible if an ideal piece like Darvish is available but don't go insane to get that piece if it kills the team overall. I'd love to see Prince Fielder here, same with many other major free agents. However, what I really want is for another 1983-1993 window to open - a long period of contending year-in year-out not another Ash or JPR era of quick fixes to make fans happy rather than waiting until the kids are ready and adding the needed pieces.
Ah, right you are Chuck. Thanks for that. Duly chastised.
Can we contend in 2012?
A.A has said we need an E.I.G. (preferably one who can also close); a LOOGY (preferably one who can get out both LH and RH batters if needed) to finish the Bullpen. He said we need a Front-Line Starter to pitch with Romero (so at least better than any one else on the staff). He said we need a middle-of-the-order Bat (to complement Bautista). We fill all this, with the best posssible people, contending will be easy, going further more difficult. At least next offseason, we will have a better idea of where we are going, and what we need.
Where does our minors stand for continually supplying the needs to do so?
From Anthony Gose and Moises Sierra in AAA to our new signings Baccara and Gonzalez we have Quality OF throughout (more than enough for trades). From Drew Hutchison, Deck McGuire and Chad Jenkins in AA to new signings Jairo Labourt and Osman Guiterrez we have Quality SP throughout (more than enough for trades). At 2B, it's an abyss of need; at 3B, Quality is in the LOW minors: and at 1B everyone is average-ish. Can't hit SS, Adeiny Hechavarria, is alone several years ahead other quality SS. Fortunately we have Yunel Escobar under contract for 4 more years to give the SS in the lower minors time to advance should Hech be traded. Travis d'Arnaud is part of a strong catching core (starters and backup) throughout the minors, enough for a trade (even d'Arnaud) if necessary.
2012 is the last draft year with extra picks A.A. has, I believe he can go all out to sign the best and the brightest and everyone else he wants, because there are limits to the penalties, whether you are a little bit over or hugely over, they don't escalate beyond 100% and two 1st round picks as max. Can we contend this year - YES.
I'm with John Northey here. Darvish would have been a nice fit with the teams core going forward and real boom to tge team and city. I don't see the need or value right now with this team dipping into free agency for Beltran or Fielder. I think there are far too many question marks with this team to make an acquisition of that scale. I'd like the Jays to continue to add cost effective high upside players. I'd like the Jays to pursue players like Anthony Rizzo. I'm less than thrilled at the prospect of giving up three or four top prospects to acquire Danks or Garza. I don't see value there, nor potential upside. I'm also a tad pessimistic on Gio, those high BB numbers are concerning especially in the AL East.
If the Jays can get Rizzo, and fill their bullpen with free agent acquisitions then I'd be satisfied with our offseason. I think come next year, they'll have a better idea of what they have in Rasmus, Lawrie, snider/Thames, Drabek, Alvarez, Santos, Arencibia, Morrow that they feel comfortable making a significant free agent signing
If the Jays can get Rizzo, and fill their bullpen with free agent acquisitions then I'd be satisfied with our offseason. I think come next year, they'll have a better idea of what they have in Rasmus, Lawrie, snider/Thames, Drabek, Alvarez, Santos, Arencibia, Morrow that they feel comfortable making a significant free agent signing
AA said this today. I think it is close as you are going to get as to what he is thinking. Its very clear he doesn't want anyone to know what his budget is:
"I think it's one thing to say you were in on a minor-league free agent, it's another thing to say you were in on a premium, high-end free agent, that the dollars were going to be significant," he said. "Ultimately I think that's an indication to both clubs and to agents of where your payroll may be going and what you can and can't do."
I wonder what kind of contract Hiroki Kuroda is going to get. I think he's the best starter remaining on the free agent board, and I'd be happy if he ended up pitching for us.
Another interesting name is Javier Vazquez, and if he doesn't retire, he could be a helpful addition. I've always liked him. At worst, he's a reliable innings eater, and he's coming off an excellent season for the Marlins.
I don't think we're likely to get either of those guys (or Oswalt), but adding one of these guys would really help the depth chart for 2012, without requiring us to give up anything other than short term payroll space.
before reading the thread, my basic opinion is that I'm much more in favor of sticking to the plan and adding to the core than i am going out and getting guys like Garza or whatever.
If AA thinks, say, Gio is a core piece fine, I don't mind paying the price. but if we're just plugging in "be better next year" pieces then they better not cost anything important to the future (and i'm confident Alex wouldn't make such a deal.
that doesn't mean i'd be against, for instance, adding Oswalt - particularly since he's now talking about a one-year deal to build value - or whoever just so long as it doesn't alter the plan.
Darvish was the exception, there is no other comparable acquisition in terms of impact or circumstances. it was a good play to get him even if they'd known to go to $52 to win the post. But no other available move is comparable so let's put that in the past and re-focus on the plan.
If AA thinks, say, Gio is a core piece fine, I don't mind paying the price. but if we're just plugging in "be better next year" pieces then they better not cost anything important to the future (and i'm confident Alex wouldn't make such a deal.
that doesn't mean i'd be against, for instance, adding Oswalt - particularly since he's now talking about a one-year deal to build value - or whoever just so long as it doesn't alter the plan.
Darvish was the exception, there is no other comparable acquisition in terms of impact or circumstances. it was a good play to get him even if they'd known to go to $52 to win the post. But no other available move is comparable so let's put that in the past and re-focus on the plan.
So I guess right now, if there's a trade for a starting pitcher it's probably somebody we didn't think of. So here's my list of young, cost-controlled players we didn't think of who could be very well acquired by the Jays.
Tim Lincecum - Phenomenal talent. Two Cy Young's already to his name. Numbers speak for themself. Two years until free agency, maybe the Giants would like to invest the sure $100 million plus he'll receive somewhere else?
Madison Bumgarner - Had an excellent season last year striking out almost a batter an inning. Only one full season starting in the books and year of mysterious missing velocity still lingers, however, and may dissuade Jays managment.
Yovani Gallardo - Team friendly contract similar to Ricky Romero's. Three seasons more of control. Three straight season's of 180+ innings and 200K's. Walks are trending down and wins are trending up. Likelihood Brewers would part with staff Ace is questionable to say the least, but who knows.
Ian Kennedy - Two solid seasons in the desert, this past season he pitched over 200 innings with a sub 3 ERA. Struck out just under a batter per inning. Workhorse top of the rotation type. Four more years of cost control. Diamondbacks just made playoffs and traded prospects away for Trevor Cahill. Unlikely they would want to jeopardize their chances of returning to the playoffs by trading Kennedy away, however, have solid pitching prospects coming up.
Daniel Hudson - Break out season last year, does not have the strike out ability of Kennedy, however, five years of cost control. Not convinced his stuff would make him top of the rotation material in the AL East.
Clayton Kershaw - Just won a Cy Young. Unreal talent. Already logged two seasons of 200+ innings 200+ strike outs. Combination of fastball-curveball arguably one of the best in game. Three years of cost-control although he's looking at a Tim Lincecum-type award through arbitration. Dodgers trading the closest thing to Sandy Koufax unlikely to say the least.
Ubaldo Jimenez - Three years of cost control with club options for 2013, 2014 available at a very affordable rate. Struggled last year, however, put together several excellent years in Colorado. 200+ innings, and a 200+ strike out season in 2010. Got a lot of moving parts to his motion, some industry concern about potential injury. Recently traded for two stud pitching prospects. In my opinion, Jimenez is a strong trade candidate for the Jays.
Fausto Carmona - Linked to the Jays in the past. Affordable club options through 2014. Ground ball pitcher. Solid season in 2010, but struggled last year. Fellow is more of a three/four then 1/2.
Felix Hernandez - King Felix is dynamite. Innings, strikeouts, pizzazzz. Would fit right in in Latin-heavy club house. Would benefit the maturation of Henderson Alvarez. Three more years at $20 million, but worth it. Mariners might want to cash in now and build around the the boatload of prospects we'd have to send. Unlikely factor is particularly strong here.
Michael Pineda - Strong rookie season, however, tailed off near the end. Frontline stuff is there. Six years of cost control. Strikeouts and innings. Averaged one of the highest fastball velocities last year. Very little track record.
Jordan Zimmerman - Four years cost control. Break out season last year. Excellent strike out to walk ratio. Lots of questions remain. See a lot of Ian Kennedy in him though.
Derek Holland - Break out season last year. Will likely only get better. Frontline stuff. Four years cost controlled. Darvish, and the need to lock up basically every position player on the team in the next year or two may force Rangers to make tough decisions. Call me crazy, but I see potential here.
Matt Harrison - Three years cost control. Not the same upside as Holland, but excellent year last year. See him as three/four.
Neftali Feliz - Unbelievable stuff. Converting to rotation. Four years cost control. Maybe Rangers don't see the numbers converting. Has frontline stuff no doubt. Would be exciting to have. Daniels and AA matched up in past. Who knows. I see potential here as well.
Alexi Ogando - Excellent year last year and interesting story of how he got to the big leagues. I don't know if I see frontline stuff. Will be 28 next year, however, five years cost control. Tailed off near the end last year. Only one year track record. Not entirely convinced.
Jeremy Hellickson - Trading in-division unlikely. Hellickson has frontline written all over him. ROY. Five years cost control. Done it in the AL East. Rays not adverse to trading studs.
David Price - Four years cost control. Same with Hellickson re-division trading. Price has track record and stuff that screams no.1.
Wade Davis - Solid seasons, with six seasons of cost control. I don't know if he's frontline material but a solid three on any team. Most likely to be traded of the bunch.
Clay Bucholz - Six years cost control, frontline stuff. One excellent season, but injury concerns. Darling of Red Sox nation. Unlikely team with pitching needs gives up a pitcher of Bucholz calibre to in-division rival.
Jholys Chacin - Solid season last year. Frontline stuff. Rockies already traded away ACE, would they trade away heir? Four years cost control.
Max Scherzer - Three years cost control. Power stuff, frontline material. Strikeouts and innings, however, could stand to lower ERA. Interesting possibility, as Tigers have traded away young studs to get even younger in the past re-Granderson.
So who have I missed? I've tried to identify players with three or more years of cost control with potential frontline stuff. I think Jimenez is a possibility and one of those Ranger pitchers. I'd prefer Holland or Feliz. Maybe even Bumgarner.
Tim Lincecum - Phenomenal talent. Two Cy Young's already to his name. Numbers speak for themself. Two years until free agency, maybe the Giants would like to invest the sure $100 million plus he'll receive somewhere else?
Madison Bumgarner - Had an excellent season last year striking out almost a batter an inning. Only one full season starting in the books and year of mysterious missing velocity still lingers, however, and may dissuade Jays managment.
Yovani Gallardo - Team friendly contract similar to Ricky Romero's. Three seasons more of control. Three straight season's of 180+ innings and 200K's. Walks are trending down and wins are trending up. Likelihood Brewers would part with staff Ace is questionable to say the least, but who knows.
Ian Kennedy - Two solid seasons in the desert, this past season he pitched over 200 innings with a sub 3 ERA. Struck out just under a batter per inning. Workhorse top of the rotation type. Four more years of cost control. Diamondbacks just made playoffs and traded prospects away for Trevor Cahill. Unlikely they would want to jeopardize their chances of returning to the playoffs by trading Kennedy away, however, have solid pitching prospects coming up.
Daniel Hudson - Break out season last year, does not have the strike out ability of Kennedy, however, five years of cost control. Not convinced his stuff would make him top of the rotation material in the AL East.
Clayton Kershaw - Just won a Cy Young. Unreal talent. Already logged two seasons of 200+ innings 200+ strike outs. Combination of fastball-curveball arguably one of the best in game. Three years of cost-control although he's looking at a Tim Lincecum-type award through arbitration. Dodgers trading the closest thing to Sandy Koufax unlikely to say the least.
Ubaldo Jimenez - Three years of cost control with club options for 2013, 2014 available at a very affordable rate. Struggled last year, however, put together several excellent years in Colorado. 200+ innings, and a 200+ strike out season in 2010. Got a lot of moving parts to his motion, some industry concern about potential injury. Recently traded for two stud pitching prospects. In my opinion, Jimenez is a strong trade candidate for the Jays.
Fausto Carmona - Linked to the Jays in the past. Affordable club options through 2014. Ground ball pitcher. Solid season in 2010, but struggled last year. Fellow is more of a three/four then 1/2.
Felix Hernandez - King Felix is dynamite. Innings, strikeouts, pizzazzz. Would fit right in in Latin-heavy club house. Would benefit the maturation of Henderson Alvarez. Three more years at $20 million, but worth it. Mariners might want to cash in now and build around the the boatload of prospects we'd have to send. Unlikely factor is particularly strong here.
Michael Pineda - Strong rookie season, however, tailed off near the end. Frontline stuff is there. Six years of cost control. Strikeouts and innings. Averaged one of the highest fastball velocities last year. Very little track record.
Jordan Zimmerman - Four years cost control. Break out season last year. Excellent strike out to walk ratio. Lots of questions remain. See a lot of Ian Kennedy in him though.
Derek Holland - Break out season last year. Will likely only get better. Frontline stuff. Four years cost controlled. Darvish, and the need to lock up basically every position player on the team in the next year or two may force Rangers to make tough decisions. Call me crazy, but I see potential here.
Matt Harrison - Three years cost control. Not the same upside as Holland, but excellent year last year. See him as three/four.
Neftali Feliz - Unbelievable stuff. Converting to rotation. Four years cost control. Maybe Rangers don't see the numbers converting. Has frontline stuff no doubt. Would be exciting to have. Daniels and AA matched up in past. Who knows. I see potential here as well.
Alexi Ogando - Excellent year last year and interesting story of how he got to the big leagues. I don't know if I see frontline stuff. Will be 28 next year, however, five years cost control. Tailed off near the end last year. Only one year track record. Not entirely convinced.
Jeremy Hellickson - Trading in-division unlikely. Hellickson has frontline written all over him. ROY. Five years cost control. Done it in the AL East. Rays not adverse to trading studs.
David Price - Four years cost control. Same with Hellickson re-division trading. Price has track record and stuff that screams no.1.
Wade Davis - Solid seasons, with six seasons of cost control. I don't know if he's frontline material but a solid three on any team. Most likely to be traded of the bunch.
Clay Bucholz - Six years cost control, frontline stuff. One excellent season, but injury concerns. Darling of Red Sox nation. Unlikely team with pitching needs gives up a pitcher of Bucholz calibre to in-division rival.
Jholys Chacin - Solid season last year. Frontline stuff. Rockies already traded away ACE, would they trade away heir? Four years cost control.
Max Scherzer - Three years cost control. Power stuff, frontline material. Strikeouts and innings, however, could stand to lower ERA. Interesting possibility, as Tigers have traded away young studs to get even younger in the past re-Granderson.
So who have I missed? I've tried to identify players with three or more years of cost control with potential frontline stuff. I think Jimenez is a possibility and one of those Ranger pitchers. I'd prefer Holland or Feliz. Maybe even Bumgarner.
Sorry, I've left out players like Garza or Gio because there are too many rumours linking us to them to qualify for an AA trade.
Right on Tamra...
I too love Yu - but the time has come to move on.
Remember one thing: The Red Sox were incensed that the Jays got Santos. They were furious that they didn't know he was available - they've said they would have offered more than Molina. They've settled for less now. By this time next years many Jay's fans will be discussing whether or not Santo's is the best pitcher on the Jays. He's THAT good.
AA has (among others) gotten us IN JUST THE LAST TWO YEARS - using HIS plan: The best young 3rd baseman in the game, Brett Lawrie. An above average SS and really good lead off guy, Yunel Escobar. A young controllable CFer just a year removed from being an uber-prospect, Colby Rasmus. He's tied up the MVP of the last two years in a long term, team friendly contract, Jose Bautista. He's brought in a pitcher with some of the best stuff in the game, Brandon Morrow. Of course the aforementioned closer, Sergio Santos. Not to mention: d'Arnaud, Gose, Drabek, Hechavarria, Cardona and FOUR of the 20 top International Free Agents from the 2011 class.
In addition to the above (the greatest collection of talent I've seen come to the Jays in a similar time frame), in just the last two drafts ALONE he's bought in (among others) the following TEN serious talents: Norris, Sanchez, Syndergaard, Nicolino, Hawkins, Hutchison, Knecht, Arce, Anderson, Musgrove, Smith, Comer, Stilson, Dean, McGuire and Thon. (I always have trouble stopping at ten).
AA LOST YU! So did 28 other GM's.
Alex - you've done so much more - in so less of a time - than ANY GM we've ever had - just keep plugging away. You've judgement, intelligence and that MOST important aspect of success: a prodigious work ethic. You - were, are and will remain: "The Man!"
I too love Yu - but the time has come to move on.
Remember one thing: The Red Sox were incensed that the Jays got Santos. They were furious that they didn't know he was available - they've said they would have offered more than Molina. They've settled for less now. By this time next years many Jay's fans will be discussing whether or not Santo's is the best pitcher on the Jays. He's THAT good.
AA has (among others) gotten us IN JUST THE LAST TWO YEARS - using HIS plan: The best young 3rd baseman in the game, Brett Lawrie. An above average SS and really good lead off guy, Yunel Escobar. A young controllable CFer just a year removed from being an uber-prospect, Colby Rasmus. He's tied up the MVP of the last two years in a long term, team friendly contract, Jose Bautista. He's brought in a pitcher with some of the best stuff in the game, Brandon Morrow. Of course the aforementioned closer, Sergio Santos. Not to mention: d'Arnaud, Gose, Drabek, Hechavarria, Cardona and FOUR of the 20 top International Free Agents from the 2011 class.
In addition to the above (the greatest collection of talent I've seen come to the Jays in a similar time frame), in just the last two drafts ALONE he's bought in (among others) the following TEN serious talents: Norris, Sanchez, Syndergaard, Nicolino, Hawkins, Hutchison, Knecht, Arce, Anderson, Musgrove, Smith, Comer, Stilson, Dean, McGuire and Thon. (I always have trouble stopping at ten).
AA LOST YU! So did 28 other GM's.
Alex - you've done so much more - in so less of a time - than ANY GM we've ever had - just keep plugging away. You've judgement, intelligence and that MOST important aspect of success: a prodigious work ethic. You - were, are and will remain: "The Man!"
Matt Cain could potentially be available if the Giants think he wants too much on his upcoming contract. I have a hard time believing that the Giants will give out over 200 million for him and Lincecum.
I agree that Matt Cain might be available, but he's a free agent next year. No cost control.
Thanks for the link Richard SS.
I was very impressed with AA. He said a few things that were definitely critical but I am not sure.
1) He said there is a lot of false information being spread. Does that mean those are lies.
2) He scolded Griffin and answered Wilner, but the answer to a clear innocent question showed that that question was not so harmless which amazed me.
I loved the fact that he was annoyed by the Yu media extravaganza. He stated that his priority is improving the team and responding to this, was a misuse of his limited time. I don't think he will indulge the media on a regular basis.
I think he will do things his way, only he knows his way and he has no intention of letting anyone know what it is.
I was very impressed with AA. He said a few things that were definitely critical but I am not sure.
1) He said there is a lot of false information being spread. Does that mean those are lies.
2) He scolded Griffin and answered Wilner, but the answer to a clear innocent question showed that that question was not so harmless which amazed me.
I loved the fact that he was annoyed by the Yu media extravaganza. He stated that his priority is improving the team and responding to this, was a misuse of his limited time. I don't think he will indulge the media on a regular basis.
I think he will do things his way, only he knows his way and he has no intention of letting anyone know what it is.
"Just too funny. Only question now - who is the next piece of meat?"
There's not one.
Thinking up an alternate target s silly.
I don't get all the speculation about Gio or Garza or whoever.
Here's some oft-mentioned trade options and free agent options.
Kuroda - age 37 - ERA+ 121
Gonzalez - 26 - 130
Garza - 28 - 118
Rodriguez - 33 - 109
Oswalt- 34 - 105 (usually much better)
Vazuez - 35 - 106
Jackson - 28 - 106
If we HAVE to add a picture - I'm not convinced we do - I'd as soon sign Oswalt or Jackson as pay three times too much for someone like Garza.
Same kinda applies to the hitters - there are very few impact bats that are even available, and I'd rather go with what we got as overpay.
There's not one.
Thinking up an alternate target s silly.
I don't get all the speculation about Gio or Garza or whoever.
Here's some oft-mentioned trade options and free agent options.
Kuroda - age 37 - ERA+ 121
Gonzalez - 26 - 130
Garza - 28 - 118
Rodriguez - 33 - 109
Oswalt- 34 - 105 (usually much better)
Vazuez - 35 - 106
Jackson - 28 - 106
If we HAVE to add a picture - I'm not convinced we do - I'd as soon sign Oswalt or Jackson as pay three times too much for someone like Garza.
Same kinda applies to the hitters - there are very few impact bats that are even available, and I'd rather go with what we got as overpay.
The perspective that I'm having today is this. We tried moves for a big time pitchers before: Clemens, Burnett, David Wells v2, maybe others. None of them took us to the promised land. A guy who plays once every 5 days is not a magic bullet.
If WAR has any meaning, then adding 3 or 4 WAR to your team really means adding a few more wins. The Blue Jays 2012 are not that close. The best moves come when you are right at that threshold of making the playoffs. And the team will tell you this mid-season or after a season where you had a close brush with success.
Keep stockpiling minor league talent. Those guys are valuable. Aim to be the Tampa Bay Rays with a bigger payroll. Imagine if they had $10-$20 million more to spend each year. Powerhouse. And I suspect they wouldn't be spending it on Matt Garza or Cecil Fielder Jr.
If WAR has any meaning, then adding 3 or 4 WAR to your team really means adding a few more wins. The Blue Jays 2012 are not that close. The best moves come when you are right at that threshold of making the playoffs. And the team will tell you this mid-season or after a season where you had a close brush with success.
Keep stockpiling minor league talent. Those guys are valuable. Aim to be the Tampa Bay Rays with a bigger payroll. Imagine if they had $10-$20 million more to spend each year. Powerhouse. And I suspect they wouldn't be spending it on Matt Garza or Cecil Fielder Jr.
Since AA has taken over he's made so many big moves. I think people are expecting too much if they want even more. Acquiring Rasmus, and Escobar for so little is amazing. Santos will likely have a better career as a Blue Jay than BJ Ryan, and they dont have to pay him 27 million over 3 years (a la Heath Bell). Not to mention acquiring Brett Lawrie who looks very good.
Add in the Halladay and Wells deals, and thats 6 nice deals for the Jays in only 2 years. Should we really be expecting more big moves than that?
The Jays have more talent in their organization today than anytime in the recent past. I say stick to the plan.
Add in the Halladay and Wells deals, and thats 6 nice deals for the Jays in only 2 years. Should we really be expecting more big moves than that?
The Jays have more talent in their organization today than anytime in the recent past. I say stick to the plan.
"I think the point here is Lee and Archer have some cache and the Cubs would be sure to get similar prospects back and then some for Garza."
Have some cache? You are cherry picking the rankings that fit your case. Baseball Prospectus had Archer at #70 and Lee outside of their top 100. I understand that you want to counter the fascination with overvaluing your team's prospects but in this case you are taking it way too far. I don't see any reason why CHC deserves a bigger package than they gave up considering the receiving team is getting one less year of an older player at a higher price. Fuld, Guyer, and Chirinos are irrelevant to me in terms of evaluating the package - the Blue Jays could easily fill out any deal with players of that ilk.
Have some cache? You are cherry picking the rankings that fit your case. Baseball Prospectus had Archer at #70 and Lee outside of their top 100. I understand that you want to counter the fascination with overvaluing your team's prospects but in this case you are taking it way too far. I don't see any reason why CHC deserves a bigger package than they gave up considering the receiving team is getting one less year of an older player at a higher price. Fuld, Guyer, and Chirinos are irrelevant to me in terms of evaluating the package - the Blue Jays could easily fill out any deal with players of that ilk.
Umm, did I miss something. Every poster above seems to believe the Jays made a substantial bid for Darvish. On what evidence? There is no proof they even bid. Griffin makes his typical assertions: "Sources in baseball insist that the Jays’ bid for the 25-year-old Japanese star was over $50 million."
Huh? Griffin's "sources" asserted that the Jays had the winning bid, and we know how that turned out. We really don't know if they bid or bid big, and we may never know.
While I agree with AA's discretion on the topic, he is in an interesting position. His vague payroll comments have left a lot of fans assuming the club is running on the cheap. Again there is actually no evidence they are cheaping it out- every club has payroll parameters, and we don't know what the Jays' are. So his challenge is if he does nothing substantive before the season starts, this will be taken as proof that the club is cheaping it out. But the fact is he may not find a game-changing deal that (to him) makes sense, money or no money.
The good news is that AA doesn't seem like the type to do a deal to keep the media and the fans "happy". The bad news, is that "management" has been known to throw the fans a bone, a bloody rotting one to prove their intention to "compete". VW contract anyone?
Sure I would like to see the team spend big on a game changer. But as several posters claimed, this is not a team on the edge of winning the WS; it's a young promising club that could have a good run for a number of years.
If the team doesn't do something really stupid.
Just to keep us happy.
Huh? Griffin's "sources" asserted that the Jays had the winning bid, and we know how that turned out. We really don't know if they bid or bid big, and we may never know.
While I agree with AA's discretion on the topic, he is in an interesting position. His vague payroll comments have left a lot of fans assuming the club is running on the cheap. Again there is actually no evidence they are cheaping it out- every club has payroll parameters, and we don't know what the Jays' are. So his challenge is if he does nothing substantive before the season starts, this will be taken as proof that the club is cheaping it out. But the fact is he may not find a game-changing deal that (to him) makes sense, money or no money.
The good news is that AA doesn't seem like the type to do a deal to keep the media and the fans "happy". The bad news, is that "management" has been known to throw the fans a bone, a bloody rotting one to prove their intention to "compete". VW contract anyone?
Sure I would like to see the team spend big on a game changer. But as several posters claimed, this is not a team on the edge of winning the WS; it's a young promising club that could have a good run for a number of years.
If the team doesn't do something really stupid.
Just to keep us happy.
For those of you in favour of standing pat: What's your long term plan for first base? I really can't see a good answer to that within the organization. The depth chart goes something like so:
Edwin Encarnacion
Adam Lind
David Cooper
Mike McDade
None of those are likely to hit at even an average level for a first baseman in the next 5 years. Nevermind at the level you'd like for a contender.
Edwin Encarnacion
Adam Lind
David Cooper
Mike McDade
None of those are likely to hit at even an average level for a first baseman in the next 5 years. Nevermind at the level you'd like for a contender.
The perspective that I'm having today is this. We tried moves for a big
time pitchers before: Clemens, Burnett, David Wells v2, maybe others.
None of them took us to the promised land. A guy who plays once every 5
days is not a magic bullet.
If WAR has any meaning, then adding 3 or 4 WAR to your team really means adding a few more wins. The Blue Jays 2012 are not that close. The best moves come when you are right at that threshold of making the playoffs. And the team will tell you this mid-season or after a season where you had a close brush with success.
This is what I keep stressing. Having Darvish would have been fun and interesting, for awhile anyway, but it might have turned out to be more fun and interesting than actually good for the team on the field.
Darvish might be good, but it's still only one guy, and nobody in baseball makes that much of a difference. You gotta have a lot of good players.
The Jays in recent history had a pitcher that was even better than Yu Darvish.
If WAR has any meaning, then adding 3 or 4 WAR to your team really means adding a few more wins. The Blue Jays 2012 are not that close. The best moves come when you are right at that threshold of making the playoffs. And the team will tell you this mid-season or after a season where you had a close brush with success.
This is what I keep stressing. Having Darvish would have been fun and interesting, for awhile anyway, but it might have turned out to be more fun and interesting than actually good for the team on the field.
Darvish might be good, but it's still only one guy, and nobody in baseball makes that much of a difference. You gotta have a lot of good players.
The Jays in recent history had a pitcher that was even better than Yu Darvish.
Ok so we're back to boring season again
Brett Lawrie, Marcus Thames, Colby Rasmus, Sergio Santos, Henderson Alvarez, Joel Carreno, Dustin McGowan
No Juan Rivera, Jayson Nix, Cory Patterson, Dwayne Wise, JoJo Reyes, Jon Rauch, Brad Mills.
A lot of teams wish they could be boring like this!
Brett Lawrie, Marcus Thames, Colby Rasmus, Sergio Santos, Henderson Alvarez, Joel Carreno, Dustin McGowan
No Juan Rivera, Jayson Nix, Cory Patterson, Dwayne Wise, JoJo Reyes, Jon Rauch, Brad Mills.
A lot of teams wish they could be boring like this!
Roy Oswalt for 1 year? Sure. Edwin Jackson for a couple, or maybe three? Yep. They do need someone to give them 200 decent innings.
If AA crushed your hope, perhaps you were hoping for the wrong thing.
Just to put in perspective, the only Cy Young winner playing today that will cost as much as Darvish is CC Sabathia at $24.2 million.
Doc, Lee, Lincecum, etc, are all making $20 million or less.
Doc, Lee, Lincecum, etc, are all making $20 million or less.
'For those of you in favour of standing pat: What's your long term plan
for first base? I really can't see a good answer to that within the
organization. The depth chart goes something like so:
Edwin Encarnacion
Adam Lind
David Cooper
Mike McDade
None of those are likely to hit at even an average level for a first baseman in the next 5 years. Nevermind at the level you'd like for a contender.'
I dont think anyone is saying 'stand pat'. People are just saying don't force the issue. Just take what the defence gives you :)
For 1B who knows what will be available over the course of the next 12 months. The solution can come via trade or maybe in house. No one thought Rasmus would be available right?
I'd say for next season platoon EE and Lind, with Lind facing strictly righties. That should provide good production out of 1B. Over the past 3 seasons Lind has hit .283/.342/.527 against righties and EE has hit .259/.350/.506 against lefties.
As long as Lind can continue to at least mash righties he is a useful player. We know D'Arnaud will be up soon and Arencibia hit lefties hard last season. Maybe in the future Arencibia plays a little 1B against lefties since D'Arnaud is a better catcher. Obviously I dont know whats going to happen, but there are a few things you can do next season anyways.
Edwin Encarnacion
Adam Lind
David Cooper
Mike McDade
None of those are likely to hit at even an average level for a first baseman in the next 5 years. Nevermind at the level you'd like for a contender.'
I dont think anyone is saying 'stand pat'. People are just saying don't force the issue. Just take what the defence gives you :)
For 1B who knows what will be available over the course of the next 12 months. The solution can come via trade or maybe in house. No one thought Rasmus would be available right?
I'd say for next season platoon EE and Lind, with Lind facing strictly righties. That should provide good production out of 1B. Over the past 3 seasons Lind has hit .283/.342/.527 against righties and EE has hit .259/.350/.506 against lefties.
As long as Lind can continue to at least mash righties he is a useful player. We know D'Arnaud will be up soon and Arencibia hit lefties hard last season. Maybe in the future Arencibia plays a little 1B against lefties since D'Arnaud is a better catcher. Obviously I dont know whats going to happen, but there are a few things you can do next season anyways.
Dave Cameron wrote a good piece about how Edwin Jackson is criminally underrated. Here's some SPs who have pitched full seasons the last 3 years (90+ starts) and check in with lower IP and WAR than Mr. Jackson : Shields, Gallardo, Danks, Nolasco, Garza, Billinglsey, Wandy, Romero, Scherzer, etc.
I think one of the differences between trading for Garza now and then is leverage. TB had less ability to absorb the salary increase Garza would receive in his arbitration years than do the Cubs. To the Cubs it's simply a value deal if they trade him, and actually I don't see why they would.
Tampa was decreasing its team salary from 72 million (2010) to 42 million (2011) in one year, compelled by financial circumstances. The Cubs have lots of money.
Tampa was decreasing its team salary from 72 million (2010) to 42 million (2011) in one year, compelled by financial circumstances. The Cubs have lots of money.
Of course I am right. Texas is going to lay out Cy Young money for a pitcher that has never thrown a big league pitch in anger. That's just stupid for The Blue Jays, not so stupid for Texas, who is trying to chase down a World Series.
The money, Lucy, is still there, but just because they lost out on Darvish doesn't mean they will go and throw it out the window!
Nothing constructive to say? What I say is that there is a plan in place to build an organization that can win year after year. It's the same framework followed by Paul Beeston and Pat (stand pat) Gillick to win back to back. It took 15 years to bring that to fruition from nothing. We are now 2 years ands 78 days into Beeston and AA's plan. At this stage, it does not include spending huge amounts of money and overpaying free agents. If you look at where the bulk of the Jay's top prospects are playing, perhaps you can understand why.
The money, Lucy, is still there, but just because they lost out on Darvish doesn't mean they will go and throw it out the window!
Nothing constructive to say? What I say is that there is a plan in place to build an organization that can win year after year. It's the same framework followed by Paul Beeston and Pat (stand pat) Gillick to win back to back. It took 15 years to bring that to fruition from nothing. We are now 2 years ands 78 days into Beeston and AA's plan. At this stage, it does not include spending huge amounts of money and overpaying free agents. If you look at where the bulk of the Jay's top prospects are playing, perhaps you can understand why.
I also read an article that stated that we might be surprised at what we would have to pay him, so maybe he isn't underrated by those that know. The writer also stated that if he slipped into the #3 spot, you had a pretty good rotation,. If he was your #1, not so much.
Another pitcher that nobody mentions is Hiroki Kuroda 202 IP, 3.07 ERA .254 BAA.
Another pitcher that nobody mentions is Hiroki Kuroda 202 IP, 3.07 ERA .254 BAA.
The Jays in recent history had a pitcher that was even better than Yu Darvish. …So how did that turn out?
I like your comment. We need 5 guys that can eat 900-1000 innings, not one all-star. If our starters can get us to the 6th or 7th inning most times out, the bullpen will have plenty of gas to finish the job.
I like your comment. We need 5 guys that can eat 900-1000 innings, not one all-star. If our starters can get us to the 6th or 7th inning most times out, the bullpen will have plenty of gas to finish the job.
not so stupid for Texas, who is trying to chase down a World Series.
True to a point, And not to make too fine a correction, but living here in Texas, I can tell you most definitely that after the last two years, your last few words should be "chase down a World Series title." Been to the World Series, twice over, tain't won nothin yet.
Umm, did I miss something. Every poster above seems to believe the Jays
made a substantial bid for Darvish. On what evidence? There is no proof
they even bid.
AA is running a faith-based fandom for all those concerned. Whosoever believeth in his plan shall have everlasting World Series hopes.
Non-believers see the same games played during the season, but will not be awarded as much pleasure (or anguish).
AA is running a faith-based fandom for all those concerned. Whosoever believeth in his plan shall have everlasting World Series hopes.
Non-believers see the same games played during the season, but will not be awarded as much pleasure (or anguish).
"If we HAVE to add a picture - I'm not convinced we do"
I know they're expensive, but I vote for a Leonardo da Vinci. It would draw huge crowds in the summer months.
I know they're expensive, but I vote for a Leonardo da Vinci. It would draw huge crowds in the summer months.
92-93, I haven't looked at the fangraphs numbers, but the theme of your comment, or at least Cameron's article is a little misleading, I feel. I guess it depends on who is ranking these pitchers and who is saying Edwin Jackson isn't "what he is", or something to that effect.
Pitcher, WAR, and IP and age for the most previous season. I used baseball-reference to get away from Cameron's source. Just because there are other perspectives. I also haven't seen anything that definitely says fangraphs WAR calculation for pitchers is obviously superior to baseball-reference. Anyways, here are the numbers. Not trying to paint any pictures about these pitchers, just letting people see the numbers.
Jackson = 9.1, 623 IP (27)
Danks = 11.9, 583 IP (26)
Romero = 11.3, 613 IP (26)
Shields = 6.9, 671 IP (29)
Rodriguez = 10.8, 591 IP (32)
Gallardo = 7.7, 578 IP (25)
Garza = 9.4, 605 IP (27)
I'm not sure who is trying to say Nolasco or Billingsly is better then Jackson (or why). I know people have a love affair with Nolasco because of his K/BB ratio and things, but he's just too damn hittable. And Billingsly just hasn't gotten it done yet. Also handy that Cameron's 3 year info grab (not a bad sample size) includes Jackson's career year, which rewards Jackson and punishes a guy like Danks, who had his best year to date 4 years ago, while turning in nearly identical seasons year after year. And it also includes Romero's rookie year in the AL East.
If you shrink the sample to the previous two seasons (roughly 400 IP isn't the worst sample), then I think Romero, Danks, Gallardo, Garza all quite clearly rank ahead of Jackson. For a reliable inning eater he's not the worst option. But he shouldn't be thought of something more then what he is. A reliable inning eater. A #3 on a badish team, a strong #4 on a good team. A 4ish ERA, and 200 IP a year. Not too bad, but nothing to get too excited about.
I know they're expensive, but I vote for a Leonardo da Vinci. It would draw huge crowds in the summer months.
Mona Lisa would be the obvious choice. I don't know how much on-field value she would add. She doesn't run out ground balls - in fact, she doesn't even swing. She's been likened to a statue when she plays the field (even though we know she isn't). She would draw crowds though.
According to this T.Jose Caldeford blog the Blue Jays have seen their payroll increase by $6M between 1992 and last season, the second lowest increase next to KC. If memory serves me correctly I believe the Jays had the highest payroll in good old '92 but it is quite ridiculous that in 2011 their $62.5M was ranked 23rd highest and that it is now only $6M higher when the median is the Dodgers who have anemjoyed an increase of $59M.
Sure the team payroll will be a bit higher in 2012 but as Caldeford notes "this is one of the many reasons why Jays fans are frustrated". Even worse he notes "the average inflation rate from 1992-2011 was 2.5%... if the Jays simply kept up with inflation, their payroll would be somewhere close to $90 m."
I would like to see the Jays payroll at least be in the top half of all teams which would have put them at around $87M last year. This would have ranked them right betweeen Atlanta and Seattle...Seattle omg! I also didn't realize that the Twins had a payroll of $112.5 last year. That's more than $50M above ours! How is it that the Twins located in MINNESOTA can afford such a payroll and Rogers cannot?
http://caldeford.blogspot.com/2011/12/mlb-payroll-change-1992-to-2011.html
Mona could be an effective (if taciturn) bench coach.
Farrell: dang it, Lisa - I can't decide. Should we bunt here?
M.L.: (smiles cryptically)
Farrell: you're right, you're right...it was a dumb idea. Hey Lawrie - swing away!
Farrell: dang it, Lisa - I can't decide. Should we bunt here?
M.L.: (smiles cryptically)
Farrell: you're right, you're right...it was a dumb idea. Hey Lawrie - swing away!
"think you might be singing a different tune when it costs the Jays d'arnaud, gose, hutcinson, and syndergaard."
Who are you trading this for? Felix Hernandez.
Thanks Melondough for the info.
Can the 2011 payroll of $62.5mil be broken down into useful $ ie paid to playing players and $ that were paid for other purposes.
AA uses $ in some unusual ways. So does the $62.5mil include the money paid to A Hech, $ we paid to LAA for V Wells, $ received from Texas for FF, July to end of season $ for T Miller, M Teahen & B Tallet ie pay them but don't play them and the $? paid to St Louis to complete the trade.
IMO since we discuss $ once in a while, I think this info is relevant.
Can the 2011 payroll of $62.5mil be broken down into useful $ ie paid to playing players and $ that were paid for other purposes.
AA uses $ in some unusual ways. So does the $62.5mil include the money paid to A Hech, $ we paid to LAA for V Wells, $ received from Texas for FF, July to end of season $ for T Miller, M Teahen & B Tallet ie pay them but don't play them and the $? paid to St Louis to complete the trade.
IMO since we discuss $ once in a while, I think this info is relevant.
"If you shrink the sample to the previous two seasons (roughly 400 IP isn't the worst sample), then I think Romero, Danks, Gallardo, Garza all quite clearly rank ahead of Jackson."
Nope. Garza, Danks, and Romero still all come behind him in fWAR, and Gallardo is .1 ahead. Edwin Jackson has been one of the 30 best pitchers in baseball the last 3 years. Calling that a #3 on a bad team and a #4 on a good team is very strange.
Nope. Garza, Danks, and Romero still all come behind him in fWAR, and Gallardo is .1 ahead. Edwin Jackson has been one of the 30 best pitchers in baseball the last 3 years. Calling that a #3 on a bad team and a #4 on a good team is very strange.
B-Ref WAR on left, Fangraphs on right.
E Jackson = 4.8 WAR, 7.6 WAR
J Danks = 7.1 WAR, 7.5 WAR
R Romero = 8.9 WAR, 7 WAR
M Garza = 5.6 WAR, 6.6 WAR
Y Gallardo = 5.3 WAR, 7.7 WAR
How can you say with such confidence that Jackson is better? Really clinging to the fangraphs WAR to reach that conclusion. I could speak just as confidently that Jackson is clearly, clearly inferior to all these pitchers based off B-ref's war system.
Sure, I'll agree he's underrated. Maybe I was a little quick with my ultra subjective "2/3/4" stuff, as I didn't take any time whatsoever to try and quantify it. But that really wasn't the point of my post. My point was refuting the absoluteness of your statement that Jackson is better then all these other pitchers using one valuation system. That's a little much too swallow. As my posts show, there are arguments that can be made the other way.
"My point was refuting the absoluteness of your statement that Jackson is better then all these other pitchers using one valuation system."
Excuse me? I said nothing of the sort. All I said was the EJax is underrated and that he's in a similar range of WAR as other pitchers commonly seen as 1/2 types.
Excuse me? I said nothing of the sort. All I said was the EJax is underrated and that he's in a similar range of WAR as other pitchers commonly seen as 1/2 types.
Only in a similiar range according to Fangraphs. According to baseball-reference he's not really in the same range.
Yes, he is. You yourself said so.
Jackson = 9.1, 623 IP (27)
Danks = 11.9, 583 IP (26)
Romero = 11.3, 613 IP (26)
Shields = 6.9, 671 IP (29)
Rodriguez = 10.8, 591 IP (32)
Gallardo = 7.7, 578 IP (25)
Garza = 9.4, 605 IP (27)
Stop trying to nitpick and go back and read what I wrote.
Jackson = 9.1, 623 IP (27)
Danks = 11.9, 583 IP (26)
Romero = 11.3, 613 IP (26)
Shields = 6.9, 671 IP (29)
Rodriguez = 10.8, 591 IP (32)
Gallardo = 7.7, 578 IP (25)
Garza = 9.4, 605 IP (27)
Stop trying to nitpick and go back and read what I wrote.
We had shifted from the 3 year WAR totals to the 2 year WAR totals when discussing those specific players. Maybe you should re-read my posts.
But you're right... I did make an incorrect conclusion on your behalf, that you said those guys were better. You didn't, I assumed that conclusion from the "Criminally underrated" and the rank behind these guys in these categories comment. It would be nice if you could link to Dave's article, at least, to see just what he is concluding.
But I would still take those pitchers I mentioned specifically, ahead of E Jackson.
All I was saying is that Edwin Jackson is seen as some average pitcher when he is anything but. No matter what WAR you choose or whether you break it down by 1 year, 2 year, or 3 year splits Jackson is a very good pitcher.
It's behind a paywall, so I'm not sure how much of it I'm allowed to copy. Please edit my post if this paragraph is too much.
"Jackson earned the reputation of an underachieving walk machine early in his career, but that label stopped being true three years ago. From age 25 to 27, Jackson has been a durable, quality starter who throws strikes, gets strikeouts and avoids giving up too many home runs. And yet his early career reputation still follows him around, and the idea of giving Jackson a three- or four-year contract is viewed with fear and trepidation."
Edwin Jackson had a pretty low strikeout rate and a high whip last year. Although he was good at preventing runs from scoring - which is the bottom line.
Not sure how that would translate in the AL East. Wouldnt mind the Jays signing him if the contract was reasonable.
Not sure how that would translate in the AL East. Wouldnt mind the Jays signing him if the contract was reasonable.
and a high whip last year.
Jackson's LD% was much higher than his career norm (25% vs 20%), so that played a significant role in his BABIP of 330, 20 points higher than his career average. Hard to know what to make of a LD% like that. An anomaly? A sign of things to come?
Edwin Jackson had a pretty low strikeout rate
Not sure I'd characterize his K rate quite that way. The AL K/9 average was 6.9. Jackson's rate was 6.7. That's 4-5 strikeouts below average in 200 innings.
And if you isolate Edwin Jackson's AL performance the last 2 years his K/9 is actually around 8.0.