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The Jays return to the Dome after a 4-3 road trip that can't help but feel unsuccessful because of how it ended: badly. The club scored a combined 3 runs in 3 games in Baltimore, and two of those runs were the result of a pretty awful error committed by Nick Johnson. Meanwhile the Mariners roll into town after rolling the Tigers, winning their three game set by the very un-Marinerlike margin of 21-9. Who will win? Who will lose? Will there be cake? Find out, this, and more, in the Advance Scout.

Also special programming note for those in the Vancouver area: the Vancouver Canadians are hosting a Viewing Party/Tweetup for those interested in watching the Jays take on the Mariners, live with audio, at Mahony & Sons at Canada Place, April 28th (Saturday) at 1 PM local time. More details online at http://vancouvercanadianstweetup.eventbrite.com/!

Friday: Blake Beavan vs. Ricky Romero

Blake Beavan was taken by the Rangers as the 17th pick in the first round of the 2007 draft and shipped to Seattle as part of the Cliff Lee trade. A prep arm, Beavan moved through the Rangers system pretty quickly before reaching the majors last year with the Ms at the tender age of 22. It wasn't exactly smooth sailing though, as Beavan has only really succeeded at one stop on his ascent, in AA with Texas at the start of 2010. Beavan reminds me a bit of Henderson Alvarez without the raw stuff, in that the hallmarks of his minor league career were not walking anyone (and I mean anyone, he walkedabout 4% of the batters he faced) and limiting home runs, although he's actually been a fly ball pitcher so far in the majors. The counterpoint to this is that, like Alvarez, Beavan doesn't strike out a lot of batters - his raw rate of about 5 K/9 IP sells him a little short because he faces fewer batters on average, but his rates have consistently been around 15% of batters faced in the minors, and 10% of batters faced in the majors. As a comparison, Drew Hutchison was at about 27% and 6% in the minors. Coming out of high school Beavan reportedly threw around 94 and as high as 98 mph, but as a pro his fastball has been clocked around 90-91 on average. I won't speculate as to this being the reason for the diminished strikeouts, but it seems possible. Anyway, Beavan relies heavily on his fastball - he throws two variants, both a two-seam and a four-seam. He'll also mix in a curve and a change. He made one start against the Jays last year at Safeco and gave up 5 runs in 5 innings.

Saturday: Kevin Millwood vs. Brandon Morrow

Old Man Millwood is still going strong - well, he's still going in any event, despite turning 38 later this year. He signed a minor league contract with Seattle this past offseason and pitched well enough (or I guess others could have pitched poorly enough) that he made the team out of spring training. He started out strong enough, holding the Rangers to one run in six innings, striking out seven (the Rangers!). Things have been worse since, as he got lit up by both the Indians and the White Sox, allowing 11 runs in a combined 9.1 innings. He actually hasn't even lost velocity on his fastball, still pumping it in around 90 MPH, to go along with a slider and the occasional curve and change. Pitch f/x seems to think that he's started throwing a cutter last year and this year; I cannot attest to the accuracy of that. Lifetime against Millwood: Jose Bautista is 7/12 with 3 home runs (and a double and triple), Yunel is 3/4, Encarnacion 2/11, Adam Lind 0/16, Jeff Mathis 3/20. 

Sunday: Jason Vargas vs. Henderson Alvarez

This is Jason Vargas' sixth major league season, which I would not have guessed, and he's been basically league average during that time, which I also would not have guessed. He strikes out slightly fewer guys than you'd like, and walks slightly more than you'd like, but he does a reasonable job at limiting home runs, and if you're lefthanded you can pretty much do that for fifteen years if you know how to. Anyway, Vargas hits about 88 and 84 with a fastball and cutter respectively, and relies heavily on his 80 mph change up which is his best pitch by far; he'll also mix in about 4 or 5 curveballs a game. Lifetime Jose is 1/7, Davis 0/8, EE 4/12 with 2 doubles and a homer, Lind and Escobar are both 2/8 and Mathis is 1/13.

Lineup

Chone Figgins LF
Dustin Ackley 2B
Ichiro! RF
Justin Smoak 1B
Jesus Montero DH
Kyle Seager/Alex Liddi 3B
Michael Saunders CF
Miguel Olivo C
Brendan Ryan SS

The Mariners were the team that Phillip Humber perfect game'd, though make fun at your own peril, Blue Jays fans... The Mariners seemingly dodged a bullet, as Michael Pineda is missing the season while they have Jesus Montero. Brian Cashman isn't calling a Sirotka on them, at least for the moment... U.S.S. Mariner weighs in on Justin Smoak, and they don't seem too optimistic... Ichiro appears to have altered his stance somewhat, moving back in the box but closer to the plate [ESPN Insider]. This is 2011, and this is 2012. You can also see evidence of it in this piece from Lookout Landing (which preceded the Insider piece)... Alessandro "Alex" Liddi is the first player born and raised in Italy to play in the majors, and although he really isn't a prospect he's put up an OPS of over 1.000 in 30 PA...Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero and Michael Saunders are all struggling to start the season (as is the aforementioned Smoak), which isn't great given they are the future hope of the team.

Infirmary: Mike Carp (1B/OF) is back soon after suffering a sprained right shoulder, Franklin Gutierrez (CF) has a partially torn right pec and might be back before the end of May; George Sherrill (RP) is also likely back in May; he's out with a strained left elbow.

Song to Advance Scout By: In these times of uncertainty and bandwagon jumping, there are simple words we can all heed.

Chart: Data from Fangraphs, per usual.


Advance Scout: Mariners, April 27-29 | 106 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
greenfrog - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#255259) #
The Jays are fortunate to be missing Felix this time around. I see Figgins had a good night last night, while Smoak homered; hopefully they aren't heating up.

Winning two of three would be nice. A sweep would do a better job of easing the pain induced by B_______ (the series that shall not be named).
Mike Green - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#255261) #
In the spirit of the Scout's song for this series, here is one fan's version of what it means to be standing by one's team.
budgell - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#255263) #
What? No cake?
BlueJayWay - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#255264) #
I am sure this series will be better than the last one.
greenfrog - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#255266) #
It's hard to see how the Jays are going to stay in the race if Lind doesn't add 150+ points to his OPS (he's currently hitting 210/300/339). That is...not good.
John Northey - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#255267) #
4 no hit innings and the game is tied 1-1? If the Jays find a way to lose a no-hitter it would be a description of how frustrating this team is this year.
John Northey - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#255268) #
What is wrong with Farrell? Romero was wild and having a lot of issues even though he wasn't giving up hits when he gave up that home run. He was in the mid-90's for pitch count and it was time to say 'good game'. Instead he leaves him in and lets the count get to 117 while the game gets tied. Sometimes managers need to do the tough thing and pull a pitcher just because he is exhausted and showing signs he is about to blow up. Now Romero cannot get a win and left the game in position to potentially lose it - luckily Frasor was able to get the last out of the 7th.

Sigh. I know Farrell is still learning but geez it'd be nice if that learning curve could speed up.
greenfrog - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#255269) #
Keith Law was saying the same thing about Farrell recently on ESPN - specifically, in relation to Hutch's first start (i.e., that Farrell left him in too long despite some obvious struggles).
greenfrog - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#255270) #
Also, Nick Cafardo cited "a major league source" who said that there has been "some questioning of Farrell's moves at times" - per MLBTR:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/04/cafardo-on-peavy-white-sox-twins-liriano-rays.html
Magpie - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#255271) #
some questioning of Farrell's moves at times

In other news, the sun rose in the east today. I'll bet somebody was second-guessing Al Spalding back in 1876. It was probably tiresome then, too.
greenfrog - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#255272) #
Probably not as tiresome as those who like to let the world know they're above such pedestrian debates.
Richard S.S. - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#255273) #
UGH!
TamRa - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#255274) #
"It's hard to see how the Jays are going to stay in the race if Lind doesn't add 150+ points to his OPS (he's currently hitting 210/300/339). That is...not good."

without re-hashing the relative merits or lack thereof of Adam Lind - almost no one on this team is hitting right now. it's really not the best time to evaluate how Lind is doing
Mike D - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#255275) #
Isn't it funny how doing very little to improve a team over the offseason has the effect of...doing very little to improve a team over the offseason?
dan gordon - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#255276) #

Another nice game for the Blue Jays "improved bullpen".

Farrell didn't impress me with his in-game management skills last year.  Still doesn't.  I don't know what others see in him.

blu-j - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#255277) #
I'm only "watching" the Gamecast on mlb.com, but it seems the wheels have come off.....I'm assuming the Jays win if Lawrie makes the play in the 9th, and now the most effective reliever this season allows 4 consecutive hits, the last a grand slam.  I'm hoping this isn't the start of another series that shall not be named.

Here's hoping for a quick turn-around--These are the teams we're supposed to beat/dominate, right?

grjas - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#255278) #
I am sure this series will be better than the last one.

Umm. May be not. Ironic that the SP is the strength and bullpen and batsbare the weakness. Opposite of the projections. Sigh.
Hodgie - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#255279) #
It was a embarrassing how Farrell committed three errors in the game, went 3 for 10 with RISP and managed to single-handedly give up 9 runs to the team with arguably the worst offense in MLB over the last 3 years. Shame on you John Farrell.
Mike D - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#255280) #
I'm with Hodgie on this one. I can't disagree with many of the managerial decisions today.
dan gordon - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#255281) #
Me either.  I wasn't talking about today.
Mike Green - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#255282) #
I felt Perez didn't have it right from the outset.  I was nervous when he faced Montero, and would have taken him out right there.

Still, it was the errors in the ninth that were most painful.  Lawrie made a bad throw, but one that was scoopable.  The ball must have slipped out of Arencibia's hand on the throw to first, as it was not in the same area code as Lind when it passed over the bag. 

On the positive side, I do enjoy watching Eric Thames hit and I am glad that his bat has revived.  Perhaps he can share...

Mike D - Friday, April 27 2012 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#255283) #
The throw was absolutely scoopable. All in all, it was just not nearly a good enough game from the first baseman.

Though Arencibia should have been called safe on his single.
92-93 - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 12:57 AM EDT (#255285) #
If Farrell called for Escobar to bunt in the 7th in a tie game, he should've PR for Arencibia.
rfan8 - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 08:05 AM EDT (#255286) #

I know some of Farrell's moves can be questioned but I'm more inclined to ask what the hitting coach is doing...

See-Hech-In-July - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#255287) #
As i have mentioned before Farrell seems stuborn at times in making pitching or hitting lineup changes.

To his credit, he has never said publicly what roster moves that he can or cannot make depending on AA's influence.

One of the advantages for a rookie GM in hiring a rookie manager.

I think Lind is right now killing the momentum of the team.

Drop him to 8th and see how it goes.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#255288) #

The Offense is ugly so far, this seaon, with only timely hitting moderating the effects (Bautista .183 .341 .324; Arencibia .190 .238,.293; Lind .215 .301 .338; Escobar .225 .271 .281 to name a few).   The Starters, thus far, are really good, better than expected but with a few bumps (18,19 April).   The Bullpen tries to be perfect, sometimes that makes it worsen (7, 9, 10, 11,13, 14, 18, 19, 26, 27).

The Team missed a sweep of Cleveland (8 April) because IMO, the offense was insufficient to the task.   The Team missed a sweep of a struggling Boston (10 April), not because Santos blew the save as much as not enough offense.   The Team was swept by "not that good a team Baltimore" (24-26 April), because they couldn't hit.

The Offense is responsible for 5 missed opportunities.   The Starters are responsible for 2 missed opportunities.   The Bullpen is solely responsible for 5 missed opprtunities.   And we only lost 10 games.   If this Team could have capitalized on just 1/3 of the missed opportunities, they would be in 1st place by one full game.

We are still close enough to matter, but until Bautista hits, all bets are off.

Chuck - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#255289) #

With the season 1/8 done, the team has both scored and allowed 90 runs, where an average team has scored/allowed 88. The offense has been average. The defense has been average. The 10-10 record seems entirely approriate under these circumstances.

What will the next 20 games look like? The offense should improve. The starting pitching should regress. The relief pitching should improve. Not sure what that looks like in the aggregate.

Parker - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#255291) #
I'd like to see Brian Butterfield work with Lind on making him understand that a first baseman's primary job is to catch the ball thrown to him. It's great that he's standing on the base when that happens, but there's no point keeping a foot on the bag if he can't reach the throw.

Better yet, I'd like to see what David Cooper can do with regular at-bats at the major league level.

One thing that might also be worth noting about Lind's struggles: he has a career .790 OPS when playing LF, .805 DHing, and a miserable .704 at 1B. Maybe he's just not comfortable at first base. It might be an idea to give him a few reps at DH or LF to see if he improves; it's not like he'd be taking work away from a Gold Glove candidate in left.
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#255292) #
In the spirit of the Scout's song for this series, here is one fan's version of what it means to be standing by one's team.

Thanks for that.
Ryan Day - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#255293) #
Nick Cafardo cited "a major league source" who said that there has been "some questioning of Farrell's moves at times"

What does that even mean? Is someone significant in the Jays' front office questioning his moves? Some of his players? Or just some random "MLB source" questioning it?

This has all the relevance of the increasing number of news stories headlined "X provokes anger on Twitter".
sam - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#255295) #
I agree, there is an inherent vagueness to what Cafrado is saying. I think he means people who have watched the team.

This is a minor bone to pick, but one good teams don't have to deal with. I think an issue with this team is they have two guys playing positions (Catcher and First Base) that require a significant amount of "instincts" to play, yet the players lack that extra baseball feel or sense that we tend to take for granted. It was certainly on display last night. Lawrie's throw is low and in the dirt, but definitely pickable. As some commentators pointed out, Lind committed himself way to early to the ball and was lunging at it. Picking the ball is a feel play, that for many first basemen is simply second nature. You play the throw prior to committing yourself to lunging or whatnot. Situation is also key. You'll note that very good first basemen and defensive players do not make these mistakes, least in crucial situations.

Arencibia is just an all-around poor defensive catcher. Actually, in fairness he's improved his pop times to second base. I was timing him the other day on some of his throws to second on MLB.com in which he threw guys out and he was an exceptional 1.7-1.9 seconds. That is very good and speaks a lot to his own hard work and Don Wakamatsu's work with Arencibia. However, unlike any other position on the diamond catching involves an incredible amount of feel for the game, feel that is difficult to "teach." Catching the ball properly, when to call certain pitches, set-up, picking the ball on throws home, when to pick-off runners etc. Arencibia really does not possess the feel for the position. Throwing to first base last night was not the right call in that situation. Farrell noted as much. He does not do any of the "extra" things you want a catcher to do at all. We've seen his inability to pick the ball on short-hops, and blocking the ball with runners in scoring position has been an issue too. The rule of thumb, the ball should never get by you as a catcher, irregardless of where it is thrown. With runners on scoring base, this is a cardinal sin. His game calling is deficient as well. It seems like Wakamatsu is now calling the games late in ball-games. A lot of these things don't stick out in a single viewing but permeate over several viewings. They can frustrate management to no end. The hitting is one thing, but I think the shelf life of Arencibia as a catcher for this team will likely be short.
92-93 - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#255296) #
Are you trying to tell me all of Buck Martinez & Pat Tabler's chatter about Arencibia's improved defense is hyperbole? Impossible.
sam - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#255297) #
Haha, it probably speaks to how bad he was last year.
Mike Green - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#255298) #
With Lind 0-16 career against Millwood and struggling over the last two years and one month, you could make the argument that he ought not to be batting cleanup.  
Parker - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#255299) #
Mike Green, I was thinking the same thing. So far today against Millwood he's 2/2 with an RBI double. That figures.
Ryan Day - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#255300) #
Are you trying to say that two former baseball players who are paid by Rogers to talk about the team Rogers owns are not wholly objective?

I am shocked - shocked! - to find there is gambling going on here.
mathesond - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#255301) #
Interesting to see Morrow go back to his 95+ MPH ways and have his best game of the season (granted, he only went 6)
Anders - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#255302) #
Are you trying to say that two former baseball players who are paid by Rogers to talk about the team Rogers owns are not wholly objective?

Honestly, I don't think its that. Pat and Tabby do this about almost everyone. Just randomly in the last couple of weeks, Brett Lawrie was the best defensive third baseman in the majors, Chris Davis was turning things around by hitting more line drives, Ichiro could hit 25-30 home runs if he wanted to; I think today they were gushing about Kevin Millwood, etc. Basically I think they want to compliment a guy, so instead of "this guy is a pretty good X" it becomes "this guy is one of the best X's there is," or if someone's improved and they want to explain it, they pick a random thing to praise, even if it doesn't make sense. It's sort of almost like a tic (or habit, I guess) that I think is born out of lack of preparation or interest, or something along those lines. I think it's more lazy broadcasting than homerism, really.

That doesn't make it any less annoying though.

Mike Green - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#255303) #
It seems to me that the message to starting pitchers ought to be "outs first, innings next".  Six innings, 106 pitches, no runs, no walks and 9 strikeouts is a great outing. 
grjas - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#255304) #
agree that offence is the main issue, but 5 BS in 9 opportunities is appalling and reminiscent of 2011. Hopefully April will become an anomaly.
Parker - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#255305) #
Chris Davis is back!
Richard S.S. - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#255306) #
Today's win is great only if Bautista's hit means his timing coming back.   If it's not coming back, we'll need better "timely hitting" continually.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#255307) #
Two of Bautista's outs I thought he swung pretty well, wasn't flying open.  His hit, ironically, he did come open early a bit and didn't swing great on that one.
sam - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#255308) #
I was big fan of Rance Mulliniks because he talked baseball and tried to explain the more technical aspects of the game. He explained it to you straight on and some of the thinking involved in pitch selection, plays, etc. I have nothing against Martinez and Tabler, but I'd echo Anders comments. It doesn't strike me they've really done their homework and listening to the broadcasts one might get the impression that people like Chris Davis are studs or all-stars.

I've been watching a lot of the Jays' games through the opposition telecasts. It is quite interesting watching the other team's broadcasts. For example, the Red Sox duo of Remy and Orsillo really don't engage in the baseball analysis or trying to explain pitch selection. I think they know Red Sox fans to be smart fans and aware of the game and don't want to be told what's going on. They often joke around and until crunch time and then pay close attention to the game. It's a good broadcast in my opinion. The Mariners team isn't that bad either. They give a lot of credit to opposition players, yet are clearly rooting for their own team. It's more similar to the Jays broadcast with a "prospect report" and speaking of players as what they could do or when a player hits a homerun as an example of his "immense power." But they never do what Martinez and Tabler do and build up players to more than they actually are.
Chuck - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#255309) #

Six innings, 106 pitches, no runs, no walks and 9 strikeouts is a great outing. 

Absolutely.

Disappointingly, Wilner, on his post-game show, admitted to preferring the "more efficient Morrow who throws groundballs and goes deeper into games". Not sure if he was referring to the one who in his 4 previous starts struck out just 12, gave up 7 homeruns, posted a FIP of 6.34 and an xFIP of 4.68, yet averaged 6.2 IP per start. I'd sooner Morrow bring the heat, pitch to his strength, and let one of the 7 relief pitchers chew up those 2 extra outs that Morrow had been previously reaching.

As an aside, I do admit to generally agreeing with Wilner more than I don't, but I find myself disagreeing with more of what he says than I'd really like. His grasp on numbers isn't as great as he'd like to believe.

smcs - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#255310) #
As an aside, I do admit to generally agreeing with Wilner more than I don't, but I find myself disagreeing with more of what he says than I'd really like. His grasp on numbers isn't as great as he'd like to believe.

You mean Brett Cecil's stuff is nothing like Cole Hamels' stuff?
uglyone - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#255311) #
It was a great outing, but against a crazy weak lineup. Against a decent team Morrow would have struggled to pitch more than 5 innings in this one.

Morrow's gotta be more efficient than that. Can't go to full counts against every 2nd batter.

I never agree with Wilner and most anything, but I'll say that I did like Morrow's higher groundball rates and much better efficiency that he was showing his first few starts, even if he hadn't figured out how to balance that with his Ks quite yet. I'll also say that I sure didn't mind seeing his ERA outperform his FIP for the first time ever.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#255312) #
Every team in the AL East is .500 or better.
Chuck - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#255314) #

I did like Morrow's higher groundball rates and much better efficiency that he was showing his first few starts, even if he hadn't figured out how to balance that with his Ks quite yet.

His entirely unsustainable .190 BABIP in those 4 starts certainly contributed to his "efficiency".

hypobole - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#255315) #
I don't see the Orioles having the depth to survive injuries, but is our 25 man roster any better than theirs?
scottt - Saturday, April 28 2012 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#255316) #
I don't see why it has to be strike outs or efficiency. If he's able to adjust to the situation and get strike outs when he needs them and coast when he has a lead, he becomes a better pitcher. It's only April after all.




Richard S.S. - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#255317) #

Tampa Bay might have more depth for injury, especially in pitching.   Boston has problems everywhere, mainly due to lack of depth.   New York has problems, but might survive them.   Of course, for Boston and New York money solves most problems.   As for Toronto, we'll have to find out how good A.A. was about depth issue possibilities.   Of course having the ability to acquire another teams starters at any position as your bench, can make a difference to Boston and New York.   Balitmore will fade as they always do.

On a separate note, is Morrow's pitches still as straight as an arrow?

ayjackson - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#255320) #

As an aside, I do admit to generally agreeing with Wilner more than I don't, but I find myself disagreeing with more of what he says than I'd really like. His grasp on numbers isn't as great as he'd like to believe.

He strikes me as a guy who doesn't understand the things people tell him, but regurgitates it often.  So it's hit and miss - sometimes he uses the stuff properly, sometimes he doesn't.  The Cecil velocity stuff is a good example.  Everybody in the Org is telling him that it's more pitch location than velocity, but it takes him three weeks to understand that the two are related.  I don't listen to Jays Talk, and will generally sympathize with any AM radio call-in show host, but he comes off as a complete oaf on Twitter.

Ryan Day - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#255321) #
The thing about broadcasters, whether Wilner, Buck & Tabler, or whoever, is that their job isn't what you think their job should be. Jerry Howarth has stuck around for 30 years because he's a nice, genial kind of guy with a solid radio manner, not because he's particularly insightful. (he can be, but it's not his job to be analytical)

If Rogers wanted a couple of hard-nosed statistic-based critics to broadcast games, god knows they could probably find a couple. (though finding someone who can be appear intelligent through three hours of live TV is another matter) But, no, they want Buck & Tabler, who are upbeat and generally appear knowledgeable about the game. Wilner, meanwhile, seems to have gravitated to a bit more of a sports radio jock over the past few years with more of an emphasis on being provocative than nuanced.

And they could certainly be better, and criticism is valid - I'd love to see Ashby on TV, because he's usually great - but at the end of the day, they are what they are. Ultimately, "rebutting" statements like "Arencibia has improved a lot" or "Cecil has is like Hamels" doesn't mean anything - no one around here took them at their word in the first place. It's just being bitchy & superior for the heck of it.
electric carrot - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#255322) #
The thing about broadcasters, whether Wilner, Buck & Tabler, or whoever, is that their job isn't what you think their job should be. Jerry Howarth has stuck around for 30 years because he's a nice, genial kind of guy with a solid radio manner, not because he's particularly insightful. (he can be, but it's not his job to be analytical)

In my opinion Jerry H. is really underrated.  I think this comment above is true but I think Jerry is much more than that.  What Jerry does really well is translate the game from a visual to aural environment.  He knows how to explain things in short quick sentences that allow you to fill in the picture quickly.  I listen to a lot of Jays games and often I listen in on the other radio announcers and I haven't heard anyone who does it as well as Jerry.  So often you just can't picture the play that's being described because the announcer skips important details or hesitates on a name.  I think Jerry H. is the Hemingway of play by play and he's perfect for radio. 
Dewey - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#255323) #
Diametrically opposite.  I think JH is vastly overrated.  (Yes, yes, I know he’s a nice guy, and quite personable; but we’re talking about his broadcasting.)  Jerry talks too much--way too much.  He over-explains, talks down to his audience, thinks he’s instructing them (and sometimes his ‘teachings’ are mistaken).  Have the people listening on radio never been to/seen a baseball game?  Can they not envision a ball field?   Jerry too often explains (and then repeats at least three times) what doesn’t *need* to be explained.  For starters.  (I agree that other announcers, most of them anyway, are even worse.)  JH is simply terrified of dead air. 

And to compare JH to Hemingway is ludicrous.  Think about it, please. 
Jimbag - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#255324) #
I've gotta think it's a tough gig doing play-by-play or commentary for any sport. It's a 3 hour ad-lib with cues tossed at you live that you then have to improv over. You have a limited amount of time to discuss or describe any given play, because the next one is coming up pretty quickly - which reduces the chances for any real statistical analysis. Plus, they have to appeal to the broadest possible audience, which often means trotting out the lowest common denominator. I'm sure if you cornered any of them and had a one-to-one chat you'd be surprised by how much they know about the game that they never have the opportunity to get into during a broadcast. Just my two cents.
electric carrot - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#255326) #
Dewey, we disagree about JH (quelle surprise!) but the Hemingway comment doesn't mean I think we should take Jerry's announcements and write them down and study them as literature.  I meant that Jerry H. can describe events on the ball field succinctly with just a few words. Hemingway was also good at doing that in a completely different context.
Dewey - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#255327) #
I know, Jimbag, and I largely agree with you here.  But the joy of listening on radio is that you get to use your own imagination to ‘see’ the action.  (Lordy, I even listened to ballgames fed off ticker-tape from a studio.)  When an announcer feels he has to intrude and explain and embellish, etc.,  he takes some of that pleasure away from you.  Again, I expect, as Chuck was saying about Twitter, this is a function of generational differences.  I grew up listening to baseball on radio in the 1940’s and ’50’s.   You could hear the ballpark sounds, the bat on ball, the buzz in the crowd.  And the announcers let you do so.  They spoke when it added something, or made clear something we couldn’t know.  They allowed you some ‘free time’ to take it all in.  Not all of them were good at it, of course; but some were masters of knowing when to shut up and let the audience share in and help create the excitement (or boredom).  Ashby is better at this (as was Tom Cheek) than Jerry, who seems to think that “Blue Jays Baseball is on the Air”  means “It’s the Jerry Howarth Show”.  He’s been around a good while now, and perhaps sees himself as the doyen or elder statesman of baseball broadcasters around here who has earned this carte blanche blathering.

But, yes, it is a tough gig.  I wonder where exactly the pressure to incessantly be talking comes from, though?  Jerry is knowledgable, but he underestimates his audience.  I feel guilty about being so hard on the guy;  but he’s caused me to turn off the broadcast more than once.  Still, at least he’s not Rick Sutcliffe.
Anders - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#255328) #
If Rogers wanted a couple of hard-nosed statistic-based critics to broadcast games, god knows they could probably find a couple. (though finding someone who can be appear intelligent through three hours of live TV is another matter) But, no, they want Buck & Tabler, who are upbeat and generally appear knowledgeable about the game. Wilner, meanwhile, seems to have gravitated to a bit more of a sports radio jock over the past few years with more of an emphasis on being provocative than nuanced.

I don't think the club should go and get Tango to do the colour commentary or anything, and I am accepting that former players are going to do it, but I guess I just wish there was more actual insight. Pretty much anyone can spout bland platitudes, I just want more moments like a recent one where Tabby explained why he thought the next pitch was going to be inside (or something like that), or why they were pitching guy X low and away - these are genuinely helpful in understanding and appreciating baseball, as opposed to just saying things that may or may not be true to fill dead air. They did a broadcaster survey on Fangraphs in the offseason, and while it's clear that people usually think the grass is greener on the other side, Toronto's team also was about 5th from the bottom. With reason, I think.

Dewey - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#255329) #
Mr. carrot!   It’s always a pleasure to disagree with you. What I don’t get is how you can think of Jerry as a man of few words, or succinct; indeed as anything other than garrulous.  Most readers of Hemingway, I think, tend to regard his prose as ‘tight’, taut, terse--even clipped at times.  And I see JH and EH as polar opposites in their customary modes of expression.

Ah well, to each his own.  Peace.
electric carrot - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#255330) #
Dewey, listen to the next double or triple Jerry calls.  I think in the ensuing verbal flurry you'll hear many distinct details about the play (from multiple perspectives) but not one wasted word. 
greenfrog - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#255331) #
Gavin Floyd loses the no-hitter but he's off to a strong start for the White Sox. He'd be a nice veteran arm to have around now that Cecil and McGowan are out of the picture for the foreseeable future. Of course, what the Jays really need is some more consistent offence, particularly from the 3/4 hitters. And some more consistent bullpen innings. The rotation has been very solid so far, but there doesn't appear to be much depth left behind the current five.

The Rangers series will be a big challenge. I would love to see the Jays win two of three. Darvish will be a big test, but I could see the Jays having some success off him at the RC - the team can field a nice lineup against power RHPs.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#255333) #
Just one more game to play in April.   How good is Texas as a draw this year?   Surprisingly enough April's attendance figures, 12 games in, with one game to go is 298,227 fans.   That's over 70,000 more than 2011 and it's 15 Home games.   This is a new high for April, at least the last few years.   As for Home games: April: 13 of 23; May: 12 of 28; June: 12 of 27; July: 14 of 25; August: 12 of 29 and September/October: 18 of 30.
JB21 - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#255335) #
On a per game basis after today I believe it's going to be pretty flat vs. last year. But as one member linked a week or so ago apparently TV viewer ship is up 50+%.

Looked like a nice crowd yesterday though.
92-93 - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#255336) #
The Dome should be open on a day like today, and Alan Ashby is fantastic. I like Howarth too but agree that he seems to gear the broadcast towards his favourite old age home folk too often.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#255337) #
Yeah roof should have been open today.  Not reason not for.
Dave Till - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#255338) #
Jerry Howarth's biggest problem is one that he has no control over: he wasn't gifted with a natural announcer's voice. His voice is high-pitched and a bit reedy, and is something of an acquired taste. He makes up for it with enthusiasm and preparation, and I can't really imagine anyone else in the lead announcer's chair.

Nice hitting from EE lately. It's hard to believe that, in the recent past, he was (a) waived out of the league, and (b) demoted in favour of Jarrett Hoffpauir.

Note from today's game: if you walk Rajai Davis to pitch to Brett Lawrie, you get what you deserve.

Mike Green - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#255339) #
Well, they batted Lind cleanup against a LHP today.  I will just register my polite disagreement to this, and celebrate a victory anyways. It's funny- when gardening on a beautiful spring day with the game on the radio for company, a managerial peccadillo carries less weight than watching it all unfold on a large screen.  Is there an expression "smaller than life"?
scottt - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#255342) #
Vargas has reverse split numbers. That seems to be usual for him. So he was treated like a right handed pitcher.
Ryan Day - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#255343) #
I have no idea why the dome was closed. It was gorgeous before and after the game - I can't believe I spent 3 hours under a roof.

Mathis absolutely cranked his home run. I wonder if he'll start getting more time behind the plate - he's got A+ defence and a tiny hint of offensive competence, which is more than Arencibia's got going for him at the moment. (Of course, it would also be tough to find Arencibia a spot in the minors.)

It's a good thing Encarnacion has opened up a can of Bautista-sized whoopass, since Bautista appears to be hitting like Encarnacion used to.
TamRa - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#255346) #
not that I am an advocate of needing another SP right now - although if Hutch looks like he's not ready yet and McGowan seems to just have one thing after another I'm open to it (Im just against demoting Drabek or Alvarez unless they give you specific cause) -

IF the Jays were going to do so, I rather like the premise suggested on MLBTR of the Pirates being willing to deal Eric Bedard mid-season. He ought to be cheaper (since there's less control time involved and the injury risk is always there) and he doesn't require the team to lock in anotherrotation spot for '13.

Also, he's been outstanding so far. it's true that he, like McGowan, is always a time-bomb so there's that. But still, I'd rather risk that as pay through the nose for a Floyd type.

Another good candidate, except forthe money involved, IF the White Sox fall off (and if not the Floyd won't be available) is Jake Peavy. But you'd have to get some financial relief or give a pretty bargain price for him (if you took on half of his 2012 salary and the 2013 buyout, that's $12.5 mil)
greenfrog - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#255347) #
Good suggestions - I'm not advocating for Floyd in particular (pricetag likely too high, especially with his hot start), just pointing out that someone like him would be nice to have around (veteran presence, more normal development curve for Hutch, better depth with McGowan and Cecil MIA and McGuire struggling, etc). But the Jays' rotation has been holding up well so far. In any case, both Peavy and Floyd will be hot commodities at the trade deadline if they keep this up (and Chicago is out of the playoff race).
Jonny German - Sunday, April 29 2012 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#255348) #
I wonder if (Mathis)'ll start getting more time behind the plate - he's got A+ defence and a tiny hint of offensive competence, which is more than Arencibia's got going for him at the moment.

Well there's some John Farrell-esque thinking.

Here's the thing. Mathis has 18 PA this season. That's not a small sample size, that's a tiny one. And if you think it means anything, even a tiny little thing, consider that in his last 32 PA (almost twice as big a sample!) Arencibia is hitting .345 / .375 / .448.
robertdudek - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 05:52 AM EDT (#255350) #
Vargas has reverse split numbers. That seems to be usual for him. So he was treated like a right handed pitcher.

I have him at -.011 regressed wOPS split (RHB are 11 points better than LHB), which is normal for a lefthanded starter. Besides, given that Lind has a much higher platoon split than the average left-handed batter, there is no left-handed pitcher in the league that would justify 4th spot in the order for Lind on any major league batting order likely to be constructed in this or any other baseball universe.

In short, the tactic is without merit.
robertdudek - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 06:01 AM EDT (#255351) #
I wonder if (Mathis)'ll start getting more time behind the plate - he's got A+ defence and a tiny hint of offensive competence, which is more than Arencibia's got going for him at the moment.

I never thought Mathis was a particularly good defensive catcher. His arm is so-so and he is far from being the most agile backstop in the league. In his career he is 6 runs below average defensively according to baseball-reference.

This is a case of a well-known phenomenon: if a player can't hit, yet keeps his job, many people will insist that he is great defensively, whether it is objectively the case or not. What we know about Mathis is that he has been an exceptionally poor major league hitter, and that he has a very good defensive REPUTATION.

But I say swing for the fences, Jeff. If you are going to hit .200 you might as well throw in some long flies.
Richard S.S. - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#255353) #
Not a defensive catcher is he? We have at least 3 former MLB Catchers on our Broadcast crew and you know who they are. Mathis is a defensive Catcher. On the Team is a former MLB Catcher, former MLB Pitcher and Baseball's best GM. Mathis is a defensive catcher. Everyone I've listed does not disagree. Who are you again?
ogator - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#255354) #
I disagree that the only people who are allowed to express an opinion that matters is someone with Major League experience on the field or in the front office. If that is the criteria for having an opinion, then why have a forum such as this one? As well, we have all heard some former Major Leaguers say some rather peculiar things and as I recall Bill James had a few things to say for quite a few years and it was only after the fact that the Major Leagues started taking his views seriously. Yesterday, I heard Pat Tabler talking about BABIP. You could have knocked me over with a John Farrell-selected bunt.
Gerry - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#255355) #

Richard:

I can say that robert never played major league baseball but he was one of the founders of this site and is very knowledgable.  Robert's point was that conventional wisdom is wrong in HIS opinion.  Your comment reiterates that you believe the members of the Blue Jays broadcast crew think Mathis is a good catcher.  In other words you believe the conventional wisdom and robert does not.  That is fine.

I haven't seen enough of Mathis to have an opinion but you do yourself a disservice by dismissing Robert's opinion too quickly.

Hodgie - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#255356) #
I certainly agree with Robert about the prevailing narrative in general although I am hesitant to draw any definitive conclusions on particular catchers. As the likes of Dan Turkenkopf, Sean Smith and Mike Fast have begun to demonstrate over the last couple of years, there are still significant aspects of catcher defence that are not properly captured by the defensive metrics du jour. The great Sam Miller has an excellent take on the matter here for those that are interested.
robertdudek - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#255358) #
Not a defensive catcher is he? We have at least 3 former MLB Catchers on our Broadcast crew and you know who they are. Mathis is a defensive Catcher. On the Team is a former MLB Catcher, former MLB Pitcher and Baseball's best GM. Mathis is a defensive catcher. Everyone I've listed does not disagree. Who are you again?

You ought to exclude yourself from this forum for taking such a stance.
John Northey - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#255359) #
It is worth noting...
Angels: 4.14 R/G
Jays: 4.18 R/G
Last year...
Angels: 3.91 R/G
Jays: 4.70 R/G

The Jays didn't add anyone to the starting staff other than kids. The Angels added C.J. Wilson. Yet the Angels have seen their R/G allowed increase by about a quarter run a game, while the Jays have seen theirs drop by over 3/4 of a run a game. Could Mathis have something to do with it? Can't imagine he is worth anywhere near that much, especially given how little he has played but it is interesting in a weird way.

JPA has had a couple of guys with top quality defensive reps to learn under now between Molina and Mathis. If that doesn't help shift him from poor to decent as a receiver I don't know what will.
John Northey - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#255360) #
grr... gotta QA my comments - the Jays are better by just over 1/2 a run, not 3/4's of one.
uglyone - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#255361) #
That being said, catching metrics are pretty much useless, so it's not like we have much to go on to disagree with the "experts", anyways.

And besides, would anyone really be shocked to see Mathis have a large increase in production this year? how many crappy backup catchers need to have career years before we realize that Toronto is absolute heaven for these guys? Molina, Buck, Zaun, Myers, Barajas, Chavez, Wilson, Brown....this place is like nevernever land for journeymen backup catchers.

of course, let's not discuss what Toronto is like for our homegrown catching prospects. that's not quite as pretty a picture.
robertdudek - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#255362) #
As the likes of Dan Turkenkopf, Sean Smith and Mike Fast have begun to demonstrate over the last couple of years, there are still significant aspects of catcher defence that are not properly captured by the defensive metrics du jour. The great Sam Miller has an excellent take on the matter here for those that are interested.

I don't doubt that there are, and I welcome more evidence pertaining to catchers' defensive value. But what I know is that if there are elephants in the snow you will be able to see their tracks. I've seen nothing to suggest that Mathis in particular is an excellent defensive catcher.

Over the past few years I've watched approximately 1000 major league games per season. I paid a lot of attention to the Angels because they were a very interesting team to watch in years past - a team which regularly won close games and was excellent at base running (not really true anymore, alas). I have seen Mathis play many defensive innings and I put quite a lot of stock in what I see. I don't see Mathis as having exceptional defensive skill, In the areas that we have good data and in terms of visual information pertaining to agility for example, a catcher like Kurt Suzuki makes Mathis look like Boog Powell. As far as framing pitches, calling pitches, blocking the plate and other aspects, show me the data for Mathis and I will take a look.

This is my Mathis theory: Scioscia liked the way Mathis did some things defensively, especially in comparison to the early version of Napoli. Thus Scioscia was presented with the less agile Napoli, which made Mathis look good by comparison. Since Mathis was a terrible hitter and was still essentially sharing time with Napoli, the only conclusion to draw was that Scioscia thought that his defensive value overcame the gap in offensive value. Baseball men are not particularly good at quantifying relative value. As for the media, if a great defensive catcher such as Scioscia vouches for Mathis, they go along. They go along because they don't know any better, and  because disagreeing could harm their career.


Chuck - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#255363) #

Yesterday, I heard Pat Tabler talking about BABIP. You could have knocked me over with a John Farrell-selected bunt.

I was equally as shocked to hear that as well. That said, he was talking about this "new metric" as it pertains to hitters, not pitchers, where I think it is much more informative.

Chuck - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#255364) #
Some 20-odd years ago, Sherri Nichols offered up Nichols' Law of Catching Defense which posited that "a catcher's defensive reputation is inversely proportional to their offensive abilities". No sign of the baseball world abandoning this notion any time soon.
robertdudek - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#255365) #
From the article:

Then in 2009, five Angels starters pitched at least 100 innings. Mathis’ CERA was at least a half-run better for each of the five, his K:BB rates were better with four of the pitchers (and essentially tied with the fifth), and his BABIPs were again significantly better for four of the pitchers (and essentially tied with the fifth).

Did the researcher adjust for quality and handedness of opponent batters? Did they adjust for temperature, and park? Did they adjust for the quality of other fielders?

Scioscia does not make lineup decisions on a whim - it may be that when he went with Mathis he was anticipating a low-scoring game because of conditions (or the opponent) and put his best fielders out there..

There is a lot of work left to do here and CERA is a very very blunt instrument.

Finally, let's assume Mathis saved some quantity of defensive runs over Napoli. This does not automatically mean that Mathis is good relative to the league, only that he is good relative to Napoli.

Mike Green - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#255366) #
FWIW, my subjective opinion (not based on a sample anything like Robert's) is that Mathis is overall a slightly above-average defensive catcher.  This view is consistent with a balance of the available defensive metrics.  Total Zone has him as slightly below average; DRS has him as above average. Mathis is an acceptable back-up catcher, assuming that he hits the way he always has.

Mathis has a curious offensive history.  He makes contact a fair bit (but strikes out almost once per game) and puts the ball in the air plenty, but there are 3 times as many pop-ups as home runs.  If he evens that out even modestly, he would be a good hitter for a back-up catcher.  Subjectively, you would think that he could manage a league average HR/FB rate. 

The question for the club is how long do they wait on Arencibia with potentially better options available in d'Arnaud and Jimenez.  He now has a full season under his belt of noticeably below average performance.  Personally, I would give him  more time, but if he went on a tear and a deal was offered, I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger.  Incidentally, I have felt for some time that Arencibia might hit better if he was moved out from behind the plate.  If you were going to be really adventurous at some point soon, you could release Francisco, call up d'Arnaud and install him as your catcher most of the time, but give Arencibia some starts both behind the plate and platooning with Lind at first base. 

Hodgie - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#255367) #
There is a lot of work left to do here and CERA is a very very blunt instrument.

Agreed and Mr. Miller is not advocating the merits of CERA in the article so much as he is simply exploring one part of Scioscia's thought process. Miller even speaks to how Scioscia's own playing history has likely lead to a certain confirmation bias although it is hardly definitive that the bias is in fact incorrect.

As I stated, I am also not advocating that Mathis is a great defensive catcher but there is certainly evidence to suggest that this may actually be closer to reality than some think. Dewan's DRS for example, which includes blocking ability among other things, has rated Mathis as an above-average to great defensive catcher in 3 of the last four years despite slightly below SB prevention rates. Mike Fast's research into pitch framing has shown Mathis to be roughly 7 runs/120 G above average over the last 2 seasons as well.

If you have not already read these, you can find more information on Mike Fast's research into pitch framing here while Bojan Koprivica published his excellent research into pitch blocking here.

For what it is worth Fangraphs shows the blocking ability (RPP) component in it's DRS break down and it sounds like they will be incorporating pitch framing in the near future.

John Northey - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#255368) #
It is also worth noting that Scioscia also said that he just used CERA as a confirming tool - ie: if he thought a catcher looked good he'd check CERA (and other stats I suspect) to see if the stats backed up his gut. If they did then he figured it was real, if not then they don't say what he did but odds are he'd check it all again from another angle.

In truth I want managers to do that. Use stats to check out if what they think is right or wrong, and if the stats say it is wrong then go back and observe some more and do some more digging to ensure you have the correct answer. CERA is blunt, but if a guy consistently is having really good stats with it or really bad stats then odds are there is something there. It could be an illusion (as others have said, check opponents, team defense, pitchers used, etc.) but if it is consistent (as it is for Mathis and Molina) then you probably have something there.

Pitch calling I suspect is the next big challenge. We've got tools for pitch framing now, tools for catching baserunners, tools for blocking pitches. How to measure pitch calling though? That'll be a heck of a challenge. You would have to know a series of things that might not be knowable...
1) Is the game being called from the dugout or behind the plate
2) Is the catcher calling it or the pitcher (might be able to guess via times shaken off if that is tracked)
3) How to tell a 'well called' vs 'poorly called' pitch

#2 is the easiest to track I suspect and it'd be interesting to see if certain catchers are having pitchers shake off the sign more often than others and what the end results are of PA where there is a lot of shaking off vs one where there is none.
robertdudek - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#255369) #
Thanks for the recommended reading above. Mike Fast's article is particularly interesting. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12965

He concludes that the "catchers' target theory" is likely a large part of the explanation for variations in called balls and strikes among umpires. My belief is that if the pitcher has good control and is able to hit the catcher's target (even if the target is set outside the official strike zone) the umpire is more likely to call a strike. If the pitcher is not able to hit the target, a ball is more likely to be called, even if it is in the strike-zone. That is the conclusion the article seems to point to, at any rate.

Here is an excerpt

Analysts such as Dan Turkenkopf and Bill Letson have looked at the issue of catcher framing using the PITCHf/x location data. They found dramatic and repeatable differences in framing performance among catchers, to the tune of 50 runs per season or more. Our catcher target theory of the zone would suggest, however, that a large part of this difference may be due to the typical pitch distributions thrown by pitchers and seen by batters. The differences in batter pitch distributions would probably mostly wash out over a season-size sample for a full-time catcher, but the pitcher sample for each catcher could remain highly biased and have a large effect on the framing measurement.

I tend to agree with Mr. Fast, and that the differences in catcher's framing has more to do with these other effects than with a catcher's skill.

Fast also notes and asks about variation in called strikes according to count:

To recap, Jonathan Hale, Dave Allen, John Walsh, and J-Doug Mathewson have all observed that the strike zone is bigger in ball-strike counts that favor the hitter and smaller in counts that favor the pitcher. Since pitchers tend to pitch more to the edges in pitchers’ counts and more to the middle of the zone in hitters’ counts, our catcher target theory of the strike zone would suggest the zone should get bigger in pitchers’ counts and smaller in hitters’ counts. But that’s not what happens. What gives?

This phenomenon seems to baffle Fast, but I have a simple and likely explanation based on decades of observation:

Most umps do not like to call a third strike, especially if the count is not 3-2. I have seen many many strikes "missed" by umpires on 0-2 pitches. Why? I think it is because (1) they simply dislike calling a batter out on strikes and (2) they are "expecting" a pitcher to "waste" a pitch attempting to get the hitter to chase. Conversely, when the count is 2-0, they "expect" the pitcher to come into the zone, so they are anticipating calling the borderline pitch a strike.

In sum, the explanation is, I think, entirely psychological.








John Northey - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#255370) #
For blocking pitches...
Rpp120: Prorated runs saved using 120 games and the league average 42 PP qualifying pitches per game
Mathis: 0.9 - tops is Humberto Quintero at 5.6
JPA: -4.8 (ouch)
Jose Molina: -4.8 (ouch)

Stats for 2008-2011
Mike Green - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#255371) #
I agree with Robert about the psychological element of umpire's strike-calling by count.  I am almost certain that if you looked at umpire's calls on 0-2 pitches on the edge of the zone with pitchers hitting compared with cleanup hitters, you would find a statistically significant difference between the number of pitchers punched out on balls on the edge of the zone as compared with cleanup hitters.  Umpires don't expect the pitcher to waste an 0-2 pitch to an opposing pitcher, but they do expect the pitcher to do it for a cleanup hitter. 
Chuck - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#255372) #

Most umps do not like to call a third strike, especially if the count is not 3-2. I have seen many many strikes "missed" by umpires on 0-2 pitches. Why? I think it is because (1) they simply dislike calling a batter out on strikes and (2) they are "expecting" a pitcher to "waste" a pitch attempting to get the hitter to chase. Conversely, when the count is 2-0, they "expect" the pitcher to come into the zone, so they are anticipating calling the borderline pitch a strike.

In sum, the explanation is, I think, entirely psychological.

I agree with this (though perhaps entirely should read mainly). I think umpires are aware of the subjectivity of many of their calls and will therefore make "corrections" by erring on the side of caution, favouring pitchers on 2-0 and 3-0 pitches and batters on 0-2 and 1-2 pitches.

And if an umpire blows an obvious call... watch out. He'll be in a hurry to make up for that mistake, even if he'd never admit that out loud.

 

 

Anders - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#255387) #
Over the past few years I've watched approximately 1000 major league games per season.

You're saying that from April 1st to November 3rd (or whatever it is), a period of approximately 220 days (I guess you could throw in an extra month for spring training), you spend about 118 days watching baseball? I guess you could have 7 tv's or watch shortened versions of games...

uglyone - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#255389) #
I find it interesting that a team like Tampa, who nobody questions their modernized approach to player evaluation and noone accuse of being stuck in the dark ages that way, decided that certain metrics (most likely the pitch-framing analysis quoted above) was good enough reason to hand Jose Molina their fulltime starting catcher job, without even one other MLB quality backup to back or challenge him, in a season in which they clearly mean to contend.
John Northey - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#255390) #
When I was a teenager I either watched or listened to virtually every Jays game (didn't hurt how good they were in the mid-80's) and to any other games I could see/hear (no internet, limited games on TSN, no Sportsnet yet) so it sin't hard to imagine seeing at least parts of 1000 games in one season today if you are addicted.

Yeah, yeah, should've been dating more but I did take dates to the game or did stuff on Saturday nights instead (easy to listen to a 1 PM game and have lots of time for a gf, do homework while watching/listening, etc.) Nowadays though with 3 kids and stuff going on all the time I never get to watch/listen to a full game anymore.

Sigh.
John Northey - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#255393) #
And the Rays are in 1st again with Molina catching everyday and having a 58 OPS+. But the staff ERA+ is just 91 but that is due largely to the bullpen and super-rookie Matt Moore.

ERA+ for starters...
Price 141, Hellickson 132, Shields 113, Niemann 98, Moore 80 (ouch).
In the pen they have Rodney, Howell, and Wade Davis well over 100 then McGee at 98 and 5 guys sub-55

Remove the horrid 5 (24 IP by those 5 allowing 30 earned runs or about 1/3rd of the total runs allowed by Tampa over 191 IP) and you get an ERA of 3.18 or an ERA+ around 115-120 range.
robertdudek - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#255399) #
You're saying that from April 1st to November 3rd (or whatever it is), a period of approximately 220 days (I guess you could throw in an extra month for spring training), you spend about 118 days watching baseball? I guess you could have 7 tv's or watch shortened versions of games...

MLB.TV Mosaic, my friend!
Anders - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#255403) #
MLB.TV Mosaic, my friend!

Fair enough!

John Northey - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#255405) #
Of note for today...
via B-R's game notes
Worst Batting Average in majors: Vernon Wells
Worst OBP in majors: Vernon Wells
Worst OPS in majors: Alex Rios

How great does it look that JP and AA got rid of those two? How bad do their contracts look in retrospect? Wow.

Rios as a White Sox: 253/297/395 - 692 OPS 85 OPS+
Wells as an Angel: 218/247/414 - 661 OPS 83 OPS+
robertdudek - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#255407) #
Patrick Corbin looking good against a surprisingly anemic Marlins club. Corbin just features a couple of excellent curveballs for the strikeout.

In passing, I will mention that more and more park are going to the "nearly true" centerfield camera. Marlin Stadium is among them, as is the Twins ballpark. Fenway has adopted it for this season I believe. There are a few others. In my opinion, it just blows away the traditional left-centre camera angle.

mathesond - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#255411) #
I remember watching some games on ESPN, must have been in 2001 or 2002, and that camera angle was used fairly often. It took a bit of getting used to, but I agree with Robert, it is just a much better vantage point.
Anders - Monday, April 30 2012 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#255428) #
In passing, I will mention that more and more park are going to the "nearly true" centerfield camera. Marlin Stadium is among them, as is the Twins ballpark. Fenway has adopted it for this season I believe. There are a few others. In my opinion, it just blows away the traditional left-centre camera angle.

I thought NESN was famous for being one of the first/only broadcasts to do this, at least for home games. I think there are technical reasons having to do with camera positions as to why it's not possible in every ballpark, but I agree, it is preferable; I'd rather see whether balls hit the corners than whether they are high/low.

zeppelinkm - Tuesday, May 01 2012 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#255486) #
It's early so all the usual sample size caveats apply, but Rios is batting .311 with an OPS over 800 so far this year.  The BAbip is on the higher side at .338, but it's certainly not an eye-poppingly high figure. LD% consistent with career level. In other news, what's up with Pujols? Has he ever had a 23+ game homerless streak before?
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