Chris Tillman going for the O's today - 7.07 ERA so far this year (14 IP) while walking 5.1 per 9 IP after a 2.5 figure last year resulting in a 2.93 ERA.  His lifetime ERA+ by season: 85-71-77-144-60 - somehow I think last year is the odd one. 

Their 1B Chris Davis has been scary good so far - 403/486/855.  Yikes.  Adam Jones in CF has a 163 OPS+, Brian Roberts is injured (phew), Nick Markakis is hitting well (117 OPS+) also.  In the ugly department J.J. Hardy has a 77 OPS+, Alexi Casilla and Manny Machado have OPS+ sub 90 as well. 

Closer Jim Johnson has only allowed an unearned run so far, Darren O'Day 1 ER, Brian Matusz 1 ER, Troy Patton 1 ER but combined allowed 3 unearned runs.  The pen is a strong part of this team so far obviously.

Blistering barnacles!  JP Arencibia walked!

As they say, even blind squirrels find acorns sometimes.  Of course, what does that say about the other 8 hitters?  When a guy walks JPA one wonders how he got through 3 innings with just 35 pitches.  The Jays are waaaay too free swinging I think.  I know if I was a ML pitcher it'd be a rarity I'd throw a pitch near the strike zone with these guys hitting.

Ugh, Arencibia is such a poor defender. He's good for a crucial screw up every four or five games.

Sigh. Costly mistakes are killing us, but the offense is leaving no room for error.

Game summary:

Defensive lapse helps the first run to score.

Defensive error helps the second run to score.

Lose 2-1.

This is a very, very frustrating team.  You have a pitcher who has been wild all year and yet they kept swinging away at anything close.  To score just one run today when you get 5 walks is crazy.  Lets see how that happened...

Kawasaki: 6 pitch PA to start
Cabrera: 4 pitch PA
Bautista: swung at first pitch, an inside fastball
----
Encarnacion: 4 pitch PA (K)
Lind: 3 pitch PA (single)
JPA: 6 pitch walk (gasp!)
Rasmus: 3 pitches, hit into DP - ump did a horrid call on the first called strike as the next pitch was closer to the strike zone and was a ball.
----
Lawrie: flies out on first pitch
Bonifacio: bunt pop out on 2nd pitch, it was a mile high and he should've been up 2-0
Kawasaki: 5 pitches before out, swung at one pitch that was a ball but ump just called a pitch close to it a strike
----
Cabrera: 5 pitch before out
Bautista: 5 pitch before out
Encarnacion: 2 pitches, 2nd a bit outside but swung at it and made an out
----
Lind: 5 pitch walk
JPA: 4 pitch out, swung at pitches on edge took balls
Rasmus: 3 pitch, hit into DP - ump called two outside pitches strikes before he hit into DP, a theme for Colby it seems.
----
Lawrie: 2 pitch, then out
Bonifacio: 7 pitch walk
Kawasaki: 3 pitch out, swung at one high pitch but on a hit and run
Cabrera: 4 pitch out
----
Bautista: called out on strikes in 7 pitch PA, all 3 called strikes were very, very marginal on the top edge
Encarnacion: 5 pitch single
Lind: called out on strikes (4 pitches) but bad call as it was outside
JPA: 5 pitch single
Rasmus: 6 pitch single/RBI (woohoo, no DP)
Lawrie: 5 pitch walk (should've been 4 pitches)
Bonifacio: 5 pitch strikeout, 2nd strike ump called but was outside
----
Kawasaki: 8 pitch walk
Cabrera: 3 pitch out (again, bad strike call outside)
Bautista: 5 pitch K, swinging at pitch far outside but given this ump...
Encarnacion: 2 pitch out
----
Lind: 4 pitch out
JPA: 7 pitch K, 2 more outside pitches called strikes
Rasmus: 3 pitch out

So what do we see?  An ump calling everything outside and high a strike with the Jays not really adjusting too well to it.  Lind and Kawasaki seem to be eating pitches, wearing down the pitcher regardless of out or reaching base.  Lawrie & Bautista being very aggressive early, when they should've been figuring out what this guy had today.  Rasmus being a nightmare rally killer in his first 2 PA, but did drive in the only Jays run tonight.

I see a very strong case for robo-ump again.  I'm surprised Bautista wasn't jumping up and down over and over again until getting kicked out.  Glad he didn't.

You are in a tied game and hit the first batter you face.   A successful sacrifice bunt leaves you with one out and a runner on 2nd base.  The next batter you face pops up for your second out.   What EFFING MORON walks the next batter.   Error, loads bases.  Hit ends game.   The Offense may have been the architect of the loss, but Loup ended any chance of a recovery.   Has he been found out, or is he just tired.

I appologise.  It's Gibby's decision for the IBB.   I just don't think anyone should be intentianlly walked without a pitching change to follow.   Very few pitchers can do both, most times bad things follow.

It's not exceptionally uncommon for a left handed pitcher to walk a RHB with first open to get to a LHB.

And Loup does dominate LHBs.

When the 3-1 pitch to the game's very first batter, Kawasaki, was a called strike despite being several inches outside, it was clear this game was going to be low scoring. If Kawasaki had walked to lead off the game, everything might have been very different.

I had that same feeling Chuck.

Bautista did throw up his arms in the dugout at one point.

As much as I've ripped him for this sort of thing, the ump was just terrible tonight. Not just high pitches, pitches several inches outside, too. All game. There "an umpire's strike zone today" (legit), and "making a mockery of the strike zone" (not major league). Today was one of those rare latter types.

If you actually look at the strikezone maps, it's just run-of-the-mill bad, not outrageously bad.

The conditions last night were very good for pitchers.  A somewhat over-sized strike zone in all directions.  The wind blowing in. A good hitter (like Markakis) adjusts and tries to hit line drives.  On a positive note, Arencibia did that in the 7th inning. Aside from the Kawasaki throw in the 9th, Encarnacion had a fine defensive game scooping and stretching.  All of the infielders made him work. 

I guess the ideal state for a ball-club is relaxed but disciplined.  This one is the exact opposite right now, tight but undisciplined.  Yuck. Bonifacio's "bunt attempt" would be an example.

Scary stat of the day is OPS+
Jays in order... Reyes (173), JPA (132), Rasmus (125), Bautista (110), Lind (93), Davis (89) - that's it for guys over 80.  Yikes.

In the 70's you have Kawasaki (79), and Cabrera (74).  A good couple of games could get them back up there.

In the 60's and 50's you have Encarnacion (64 - maybe that multi year deal wasn't a good idea), DeRosa (57), and Bonifacio (55)

In the 'yikes' category you have Izturis (27) and Lawrie (6) and Blanco (-19 in 11 PA).

So, think it would've been a good idea for Lawrie to get a bit of minor league rehab first?  Bonifacio and Izturis are looking like flops so far.  DeRosa is about what was expected.  Encarnacion & Cabrera though...ugh... those are supposed to be 2 solid hitters. 

Is there something wrong physically with Bonofacio? He attempted 33 stolen bases last year in 64 games (and was 91% successful). This year he has zero attempts in 18 games. Obviously he's been awful at the plate and not getting on base that often, but would still have expected to see a few attempts.

Too early to worry about guys who've been effective hitters in the past.

Obviously he's been awful at the plate and not getting on base that often, but would still have expected to see a few attempts.

Oddly, 7 of his 10 hits have been for extra bases after having been a notorious singles hitter his whole career. Having hit just 3 singles has certainly contributed to his absence of stolen bases, though doesn't explain it away entirely.

Lets look closer at Bonifacio and when he has been on first base (not hunting down his times at first via a force out or error)

April 4th: single: Reyes grounded out on the 2nd pitch he saw, end of inning
April 5th: single: Cabrera out on 3 pitches, Encarnacion on 4 - there was a chance here
April 7th: single: advanced to 2nd on the first pitch thrown to Reyes (the next hitter)
April 14th: walk: runner already on 2nd
April 18th: walk: runner already on 2nd; HBP: was picked off, but error allowed him to go to 3rd scored on another error
April 20th: pinch run: tail runner, guy already at 2B with him at 1B
April 22nd: walk: Kawasaki 3 pitch PA, grounded out with Boni going to 2B on the play

So not much of a chance to steal.  8 pitches (some fouled) that he could've stolen second base on so far.

Checking...
April 22nd: 2 potential chances to steal, but one was a foul ball so just 1 pitch he could've stolen on
April 5th: none of the 5 pitches were fouled off - his best shot at a steal. Team down by 1 with 1 out when he reached. Pitcher was Felix Doubront
April 4th: first pitch was a ball

So only April 5th really is a head scratcher as a stolen base there would've made a ton of sense, down by a run with 2 good hitters coming up.  The other chances covered just 2 pitches.  So a total of 7 pitches that he could've gone for second base on this year. 

Bonifacio has shown the longest stretch of bad bunting I've ever seen. He must be around 20-25 bunt attempts and all he has to show for it is 1 sacrifice. Travis Hafner laid down a bunt the other day that was better than any I've seen from Bonifacio this year.

It's a team-wide affliction (Kawasaki excluded).  Some of that has to be laid at the door of the coaching staff.  I know that modern day players don't like to bunt, but the Jays are particularly poor in that department.

By the way, that should remind people not to get misled by sacrifice bunt stats. That the Jays have the least sac bunts in the league owes less to any disdain for that strategy than a complete ineptitude of carrying it out.

Sarcastic props to you Lylemcr for giving it up for Kawasaki for being "sound fundamentally" considering he basically cost the Jays the game last night.

I'm sorry, one can't blame Loup; he would have been *out of the inning* if not for Kawasaki's flub. Ridiculous for some of you to blame Loup for not being able to finish after that, which included a group convention on the mound and then facing the top of the order (Markakis, who has an .800 OPS) immediately afterwards.

The crazy thing is that the fundamentals have been lacking in virtually every game this season. It's painful to watch.

Colby Rasmus is a good bunter.

...but hasn't laid down a bunt this year. 

It's true.  Rasmus is 16/24 with 11 sacrifices when bunting over his career, including 8/10 with 2 sacs last year. 

Where do you find bunting stats Mike?

You know I've been wondering if these problems with fundamentals are in any way tied to WBC and the lack of a normal spring training for many of the blue jay players.

Ramon Ortiz has been on the roster for 8 games. He's appeared once and threw 45 pitches. *Sigh*

Since your comments are often cryptic, and since not everyone here has memorized your previous position on every roster issue, can I just ask: are you advocating a 6-man bullpen? Or are you advocating the release of Ortiz and his replacement with someone else? If so, who?

Aaron Laffey perhaps?

 

The Jays claimed Laffey today.

Adam Lind is batting 2nd in tonight's lineup. His transformation is complete: he doesn't need to hit home runs any more, he only needs to draw some walks and get on base.

Also, in honor of Baltimore's greatest cultural product of the past decade, the 6th hitter in the Jays lineup has been renamed "Lawire." (According to the official Blue Jays twitter feed.)

I'm advocating a 6 man bullpen in the scenario where your AAA squad is around the corner and your 7th RP is a 40 year old scrub who you won't use unless the game is 5+ runs either way, and even then you've still gone to other relievers because they needed work (Darren Oliver pitched down 9-3).

Perhaps you'll also try to ridicule Shi Davidi, one of the best of the Blue Jays beat reporters, but Davidi -- who talks to the Jays every day -- has the opposite conclusion. He sees dangerous signs of overwork in the bullpen. He notes that the Jays bullpen has the 2nd-highest number of innings in the majors. He points out that Delabar has already had 5 outings of more than an inning in his 10 appearances this season. He adds this:

"A key element of their construction was a rotation that would provide enough innings to keep the bullpen fresh enough to take the mound in optimal shape, yet that hasn’t been the case. And with the Blue Jays having completed game No. 14 of 20 in a row without a day off, the workload threatens to wear down the relievers before May even arrives, and getting caught up only gets harder as time goes along."

I fail to see why I'm supposed to have an issue with what Davidi is saying based on my last post.

If the bullpen is overworked, find an arm you can actually use as your 7th RP, but don't carry one just for the hell of it.

Where do you find bunting stats Mike?

BBRef player pages' batting splits include  hit trajectory- ground balls, fly balls, line drives and bunts.  Here's Rasmus, 2012. It's interesting that his profile is so much better on line drives than fly balls despite his power. 

As for "Lawire" in Baltimore, why do I think of Herc?  I checked and the actor who played Herc was named Lombardozzi.  I was hoping that Lawrie might evolve more along the lines of Carver and Freamon.

"...I fail to see why I'm supposed to have an issue with what Davidi is saying based on my last post..."

Because in your last post, you referred to some relievers who "needed work." The reality is that they don't need work -- they are, as a collective, overworked.

As for Ortiz, the 7th reliever traditionally has a mop-up role, because he is rarely as good as the other 6 relievers. Anthopoulos can't just magically produce a reliever who's as good as the other six. Santos is injured, Lincoln apparently still needs work (although I'd like to see Lincoln promoted soon). It's not the fault of management that the Jays haven't had very many of the 3-run leads or blowout games where they can use Ortiz.

So if I'm reading that correctly Rasmus was 7/8 with 2 sacrifices when bunting in 2012? That's tremendous.

I still refer to Littlefinger as Carcetti.

"Because in your last post, you referred to some relievers who "needed work." The reality is that they don't need work"

I referred to an instance where the mop up reliever wasn't used despite the team being down 6 runs. Instead, it's premier lefty was brought in, because HE NEEDED WORK. So no, please don't tell me the bullpen is "overworked" when the manager is bringing in Darren Oliver into the 9th inning of 6 run games.

You're right, 92-93.  I thought his 2012 bunting line was merely great, but I misread it and it was indeed tremendous.  His career line is great.  He doesn't bunt often but is very effective at it.  He could bunt a little more, particularly with runners on first and second and less than two out (with a 75% sacrifice, 25% bunt hit aim).

So it turns out that you actually do disagree with Davidi. I was surprised that you denied this at first.