So whats the pen situation?

• All Star Cecil had yesterday off, pitched in just 2 of the last 8 days
• Delabar is up to 5 days off, but appears hurt so will not be used
• Janssen has 2 days off so is ready and waiting
• Loup has 2 days off plus just 6 pitches the day before that - all set for a 3 inning stretch if needed
• McGowan just one day off, so only available for an inning at most I figure
• Oliver was used yesterday so should have today off - last 5 days were pitch/off/pitch/off/pitch
  
• Perez was used, but just 13 pitches and 3 days off before that so is available but again just 1 inning
• Wagner has had 2 days off after throwing 39 pitches.  Figure he will have a short leash if used.
  

Not bad.  The big 2 (Janssen/Cecil) are available.  Delabar might be hurt so probably isn't.  But with Loup fully rested and McGowan and Wagner available for an inning each that should be plenty.

The entire bullpen should be available today. If Oliver isn't because he threw 13 pitches last night, the club really needs to look into a different assortment of 7 relievers, because it hurts the club carrying so many guys who can't be leaned on for a typical MLB reliever's role.

I have very little interest in an Arencibia bobblehead, but promotions that are given out only to the first 20,000 fans when you expect over 35,000 seems cheap and tacky. Spend a few extra bucks and make everyone happy. It's an example of being penny smart and pound foolish.

Since Lind came back from missing time with the back spasms, he is 1-15 with 1 walk and 9 strikeouts.  I'd be sitting him against a lefty.  To have him hitting cleanup is, well, faithful...

As interesting and exciting as it would've been, I'm glad Marcus Stroman is not starting this game for the Jays.

The roof at the dome is a fickle and confusing beast.

A couple of days ago, Jamie Campbell claimed Rasmus has been denied a homerun because the roof was open. Today, Pat Tabler claimed Arencibia was denied a homerun because the roof was closed.

Open or closed, that dog gone roof keeps costing the homeside homeruns.

Sam Cosentino, you are welcome to shut the hell up any time now.

Colby Rasmus connecting is a truly beautiful thing.

92-93: please tell me you really don't think that a pitcher who is over 40 and has had a few issues this year should always be available every single game.  There always have been, and always will be relievers who operate best with a days rest.  Could Oliver be used?  Sure.  You could also use yesterdays starting pitcher if you wanted to but the results would be pretty ugly.  The idea of reliever usage is to maximize the odds of them getting outs without allowing runs and without injuring the pitcher.  Consecutive days can be done (and is) but normally a manager tries to minimize it, especially with pitchers who have had injuries recently or are older.  So giving Oliver a day off today makes tons of sense.  If the game goes 15 innings then I'm sure he would be available for an inning but a smart manager would try to avoid using him unless other options were used up first.  The advantage of an 8 man pen is you can give guys enough time off to stay healthy and effective.

As to the promotion, giving out 20k of an item when you expect 30+k is not unusual.  The idea is two-fold.  1) to get more people to the game to get the promo and 2) to get people into the park early so they buy more drinks and food.

The idea is two-fold. 1) to get more people to the game to get the promo and 2) to get people into the park early so they buy more drinks and food.

They were running the same type of promotions the same way twenty years ago. Obviously, when every game was sold out, the only reason was #2 (get 'em there early.)

"92-93: please tell me you really don't think that a pitcher who is over 40 and has had a few issues this year should always be available every single game."

What I'm saying is that you force yourself into things like an 8 man bullpen when you have an assortment of short relievers who need to be coddled, each for his own valid reason. The team would be better off constructing itself in a way where 7 relievers, one of them a long man, would suffice. It's hard to do this when Janssen is used so sparingly, Oliver is better off not going back to back, and McGowan's kid gloves are just coming off.

About McGowan - wow. The stuff is still ridiculous. I really hope he doesn't get hurt, because he's a joy to watch and could be huge for them down the stretch.

It's exciting that McGowan is steadily improving as he gets a heavier workload. The Jays were cautious with him at the beginning, but he's not being coddled any more. He's got closer stuff, and the closer's job could be his future.

But it's also fascinating that he wants to start next year. With the weighted-ball program, his health might allow him to be a starter in 2014. It's finally becoming clear why the Jays were willing to give him that $3-million contract.

"....The stuff is still ridiculous...."

According to some reports, McGowan's velocity this year is actually higher than his velocity in his early years in the league from 2005-08.

Also, about the promotional stuff, I'll say this - the Dodgers are having Yasiel Puig t-shirt day next Sunday, and feel it's appropriate handing out 40,000 of them.

I’m enjoying your agonizings with broadcast crews, Chuck.  All we need is to have Rick Honeycutt come on board, and your tribulations would be maximized.  It could happen, I suppose.

I've never seen anyone walk around town wearing a bobblehead... I mean, except for the folks heading east on Front Street at 11:10 am today.

I’m enjoying your agonizings with broadcast crews, Chuck.

Thanks, Dewey. I had been concerned that my misery was for nought.

With McGowan becoming a dominant piece of the Bullpen (any consideration about starting next year should wait until then), who can be traded if A.A. needs a Reliever in a trade. I'd keep McGowan, Cecil and Delabar. If A.A. needs to move the rest, he can, although I don't know how much market Oliver, Perez and Wagner would have.

The pen is getting interesting.  A reminder that failed starters can be very, very successful there.  Janssen, Cecil and now McGowan all had issues starting and now are dominate in the pen.  Delabar was mainly a starter for his first 4 years in the minors (2 years exclusively starting) before moving to the pen.  Loup was always a reliever with just 5 starters in the minors (2nd season).  Perez was a lot like Delabar with a fair number of starts early in his minor league career (44 his first 3 years vs 7 relief games) but just one start after 2002.  Wagner has never started.  Oliver was mainly a starter up until 2004, missed 2005, and just 1 start since.

So I'd put Cecil, McGowan, Janssen, Oliver in the failed starters category, with Delabar and Perez arguably part of that too (often guys who will be relievers are given starts early on to build up some endurance and get work in).  Wagner and Loup clearly were always viewed as relievers.  So 1/2 of the 8 man pen is 100% failed starters and 1/2 of the rest could be viewed that way.  Shows you that trying to develop guys as relievers is not the best way to go I'd say, better to grab guys with arms but issues in the rotation.

Of the big 4 I only see McGowan having a real shot at the rotation in 2014 though.  Cecil really seems to have found a home in the pen and the same with Janssen.  McGowan's best future prospects though might be mixed with Cecil in the 7/8th inning.  Santos will throw a wrench in there at some point but who knows when and how.  I suspect Santos will replace Wagner first (which I suspect McGowan is doing now, with Wagner slowly moving into McGowan's old role of cleanup work), then move up the ladder from there.

Hmm... now there is a good question... how would you rank the current 8?  From most counted on to least?
Janssen (closer), Cecil, Delabar are the big 3.  Loup, McGowan I'd put next with Perez, Wagner, and Oliver at the bottom for trust in that order.  Funny as preseason Oliver would've been #1 or 2 for trust by virtually everyone here.

Chuck I also thoroughly enjoyed your characterization of Jerry Howarth's delivery style as "gee whiz." I used the word "saccharine" but it pales in comparison to yours.

What exactly was Cosentino prattling on about?

It's probably a testament to just how awesome our 'pen has been this year that we view this guy as an unreliable dissappointment without much trade value:

D.Oliver: 26.0ip, 7.3k/9, 2.8bb/9, 1.23whip, 3.12era, 3.88fip, 3.63xfip, 3.52siera

In many years, that would be our best reliever, and i'm sure would still one of the best in most bullpens.

True he might be benefitting from lower leverage usage but he also had to deal with an injury as well. Since he's come back from injury he's allowed runs in only 2 of 10 outings and baserunners in 3 of them.

Since returning less than a month ago: 10gms, 9.0ip, 10.0k/9, 2.0bb/9, 0.78whip, 3.00era

Given his track record, i'd guess if we decided to trade him he'd still be the #1 lefty reliever on the market.

uglyone - and that is why the Jays should trade a couple of relievers as part of a package to drastically improve at 2B long term.  Not sure where a solid young 2B would be - ideally one who is blocked on a contender - outside of Texas who doesn't want to trade their kid (Jurickson Profar) who is 20 with a 81 OPS+.  Texas' weakness this year has been SS (58 OPS+ from Elvis Andrus), LF (David Murphy 76), and DH (Lance Berkman 96).  Jeff Baker has been about it on their bench for quality it appears.  Their pen has one good leftie and two weak ones so they could use Oliver but it would take a heck of a lot more than that to get Profar - kind of like saying it'll take more than a cookie to get $1 million from someone.

Kolten wong might be the guy to target, since he might be blocked. Would cost more than just an RP or two but we probably have the assets to do it.

Though his pcl numbers may be overvaluing him. Looking at wRC+ he's putting up the same solid above average performance in aaa as he did last year in aa.

Doesn't project as a star but as a solid all around 2b who should be ready to jump to mlb this year or next.

Kolten Wong is interesting.  a 834 OPS in AAA at 22 (while in the PCL his team OPS is 769 so he is above average it seems).  Always at 2B except for 2 games at DH this year.  Rated #79 by MLB and #84 by BA pre-2013.

St Louis in the majors has Matt Carpenter who has a 142 OPS+ this year and he has just 1 year of service time so he is theirs for cheap for awhile.  Their pen is good, but just one leftie they can count on although Kevin Siegrist is off to a great start ala Perez but just 23 and in his first year relieving instead of starting.  Don't see them going nuts for Oliver or any other reliever.  CF is weak but don't see them pushing for Colby to return, although they might be interested in Gose or Kevin Pillar.  Shortstop is weak for them too, but Reyes aint going anywhere and I doubt Kawasaki's magic effect would extend to getting GM's to trade anything of value for him.

Just reviewed clips of Redmond from this game. His numbers look good, and I'm happy for him that he has a major league win.

Bad news: many of his "highlights" consist of Minnesota hitters swinging through, or popping up, pitches in the middle of the zone. I absolutely would not depend on him being this lucky a second time.

John Lott has a great article on Dustin McGowan today. Sample nugget: McGowan's biggest challenge is trying to reduce the speed of his changeup, which keeps drifting up to 93 mph. His changeup.

http://sports.nationalpost.com/2013/07/08/for-blue-jays-dustin-mcgowan-patience-and-persistence-are-paying-off/

I know trading within a division is tricky, but we may have a fit soon.

The Red Sox just saw lefy setup man Andrew Miller go down with a season-ender, and they've already seen Hanrahan and Morales go down longerm, and seen Bailey blow up. They're down to abusing the awesome Uehara and the solid Tawaza and Breslow, and then praying for rain.

Darren Oliver might just be an ideal fit for their bullpen, and we wouldn't lose much by trading him. They also have all sorts of interesting pieces, both in MLB and MILB, that could interest us.

Dirk Hayhurst has an interesting piece today about the value of trading Casey Janssen now, while his value is at his peak, and while there are good replacements available in the Jays bullpen and in the system.

I don't mind the idea of trading Janssen....but that would be much more of a "give up on the season" move than trading Oliver would be.

If we decide we're out of it, then yes, absolutely trade Janssen. But I'm not sure I'm quite there yet.

Oddly enough, it might be possible to trade Janssen without giving up on the season. Delabar and/or Cecil could replace him as closer; there are good high-leverage guys available with Loup and McGowan and Oliver; and the rest of the pen would be decent relievers like Wagner, Perez and whomever you want to promote from the minors (Lincoln, Carreno, Stilson, maybe soon Santos). I don't think the Jays would be losing too much if they trade Janssen. And if they could get a good 2B for him, it would be an overall boost to the team for sure.

You certainly can justify trading Janssen (or Cecil or Delabar), singly or as part of a package, for the right piece. 

I see playing Bonifacio as a 'giving up on the season' move more than trading Janssen.  Of course, as others have pointed out the options are not exactly great.  Kawasaki has been a fun story but he hardly is an everyday player - more like a John McDonald type, nice to be a backup and playing everyday for short DL stints but not for 6 months.  Izturis might be OK now, but really should be a backup as well. 

If trading Janssen can result in a solid above average 2B coming here for a few years (of course, other parts would be sent away as well) then I say go for it and I suspect most of the team would be fine.  Especially since Santos is now on the road back and might be here by the trading deadline and able to step up again in the 'traditional' closer role (one inning with a 1-3 run lead, use someone else for cases where he might be tired and it is 1 run).

I don't think the Jays should count on Santos at all. But he's an example of the depth options. The main point is that the Jays have an excellent core of relievers even without Janssen, because of Cecil/Delabar/Loup/Oliver/McGowan and others. Janssen's value is at its peak, his salary is rising, and he can be given up without hurting the bullpen appreciably. If trading Janssen can solve the 2B sinkhole, the Jays should do it.

The other rumored solution to 2B is to switch Lawrie there -- it's still being considered, and it might not be the worst solution. But then what about 3B? Bautista really isn't ideal there.

John Northey - there might be some good news on the horizon at 2B internally.

Lawrie's imminent return should push Izturis to 2B....and for once that doesn't seem like a bad idea, because Izzy's numbers have finally started to regress to normal for real it looks like.

APR: .187babip, .510ops, .225woba, 35wRC+
MAY: .245babip, .623ops, .276woba, 70wRC+
JUN: .282babip, .676ops, .295woba, 83wRC+
JUL: .375babip, .782ops, .346woba, 117wRC+

And that's not just a small July sample, it actually goes back much further than that:

Last 26gms: 100pa, 2hr, 16rbi, 0/0sb, .342babip, .315avg, .350obp, .435slg, .785ops

now I don't expect him to hit that well forever (though maybe for a little while longer to make up for the awful first half luck), but at least it gives me hope that we can legitimately expect him to get back near his career line th erest of the way, which would be a huge upgrade for us at 2B.

Career: .271avg, .332obp, .378slg, .710ops, 91ops+

Why? Because closers are overrated. Their impact is limited, they pitch only in specific situations, they come out of the ‘pen at their accorded time even if there is a better statistical match up available, and they are defined by one very misleading stat: the Save.

Well said, Dirk. Very well said.

Now back to my regularly scheduled hiding.