well our old guys got their break. hopefully they come back rejuvenated.

and no better test to start this crucial stretch than our hated nemeses the rays.

no joking around. a few more series losses here and we won't be in a position to add at the deadline.

Richard Griffin was on TSN radio yesterday and I didn't like what he seemed to say - that AA was super eager to do deals and willing to overpay , just waiting for teams to definitely decide to sell - I expect that AA is on the hottest seat of any GM and he will probably be willing to sell the club's future that he may not be part of - I will judge deals when they happen but those comments give me a bad feeling.

I will say right now that i will be outright disappointed if one of Sanchez/Norris/hoffman isn't traded for a legit #1 sp this monthm

Sonny Gray. Make it happen, AA.

we get the A lineuo today at least.

though sorry mike, our A lineup includes Cola in LF.

ss reyes
3b Donaldson
rf bautista
dh encarnacion
1b smoak
c martin
lf Colabello
cf Pillar
2b travis

Yup this is probably going to go down like I fear. AA will give in to pressure and sell the farm and we'll still miss the playoffs. He will then be justly fired, leaving the team in a far weaker position to rebuild.

I'm dreaming of this lineup...

ss reyes
3b Donaldson
rf bautista
dh encarnacion
1b smoak
c martin
lf Saunders
cf Pillar
2b travis

Half of the pessimists are complaining that AA is going to make a big trade. The other half of the pessimists are complaining that he won't make any trade at all. Apparently any outcome will be terrible.

Do we still live in a time where Richard Griffin is considered a more credible source on the Blue Jays than Peter or Brian Griffin?

I just have no faith CF that Gibbons can manage a team to a playoff berth. I'd feel better about rentals if we were in a stronger position, but we're in fourth place. I don't see one pitcher making a huge difference. To make a real difference they would have to sell the farm. (There is only 75 or so games left, so even getting an ace will have limited impact)

Plus buying playoff berths and success just hasn't worked lately. The teams that have won built for within, so even if they do make the playoffs (which I don't think our team is in great position to win since in general there good pitching beats good hitting) it will be a temporary success akin to the As of last year. Do you think they're happy now having on Russell going forward? I want a young cost controlled team that can challenge every year. AA has constantly sold his youth away to average results on trades and mediocre results on the field.

The curse of a public job.  No matter what you do tons will complain unless it all works out perfectly.  Just ask Cito Gaston 2 WS title and 4 playoff appearances in 5 years and people still complained non-stop about him.

AA needs to make a trade.  I suspect we'll see him go for Phillies with Cole Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon since that covers both major areas of concern and the Phillies are almost as desperate to make a move as the Jays and are willing to eat money to make something happen.

John, everyone is saying that Hamels won't approve a trade to the Jays.

How many losing seasons (2016-?) are people willing to trade for to get a 10% chance of winning the World Series on October 1st? I would go with two.

For a wild card spot? I'd go with 0.

Such a good ballplayer.

For wild card yeah 0 sounds right. For winning the division somewhere between one and two sure.

More Smoak please.

It's pretty hard to make a trade that would turn a team into both a serious contender and a losing team the following year.

Somehow you trade several regulars for rental players?

imo it would be criminal not to give this offense a real chance to win something. we're unlikely to ever see an offense this good again.

especially since IMO we have plenty of youth to trade from without selling the farm:

U-25 Jays

Stroman 24
Hutch 24
Boyd 24
Norris 22
Hoffman 22
Sanchez 22
Harris 21
Greene 21
Borucki 21
Labourt 21
Perdomo 21
Osuna 20
Castro 20
Hollon 20
Tirado 20
Reid-Foley 19
Espada 18


1. CF Pompey 22
2. 2B Travis 24
3. RF Alford 20
4. 1B Guerrero 16
5. DH Tellez 20
6. C Pentecost 22
7. LF Smith 22
8. SS Urena 19
9. 3B Nay 21

B. UT Burns 24
B. OF Davis 20
B. IF Lugo 20
B. C Jansen 20

We can trade a handful of those guys and be just fine going forward.

Smoak should be in the lineup everyday going forward.

Does it matter whether it is a WC - division winners often don't deserve a 10% chance. A flat out 10% true chance of a title. Zero seems irrational.

WC likely means you're out after one away playoff game.

man i love when we pound Rays' starters. Feels so good.

especially after P&B preach how pitching beats hitting all game.

imo it would be criminal not to give this offense a real chance to win something. we're unlikely to ever see an offense this good again.

For sure, but it's not like all of those guys are walking out at the end of the year.

Trading a bunch for Cueto would do that. He won't resign here and we would lose him for nothing.

True, but that wasn't part of the original question. WC winners are often better than at least one of the division winners.

If the standings today were the final ones I would give the Yankees a less than 10% chance at winning a WS.

I'm sure Anthopoulos wants to make a trade. The challenge is making a good trade in a sellers' market, and in circumstances when every GM knows that Alex is feeling the heat. Patience is key. If the right deal isn't available, sit tight.

If the Jays trade a "bunch" of prospects for Cueto, they won't be top prospects.  I think people are frightening themselves unnecessarily here.  Nobody will be "selling the farm" or "selling the future" and nobody is desperately trying to save their job at any cost.

According to Davidi CF other teams are asking the Jays for Stroman even for rentals. The sellers here are imo a bid deluded. I think AA would be wise to stay away from Cinci and Philly. They both have what are considered to be the worst front offices in baseball and have an inflated sense of what their guys are worth. Ideally AA makes a deal (if any) with a team like the A's, White Sox or Padres for a more affordable choice.

I am firmly in the stand pat camp if only because the internal options are more promising and do dual duty of seeing what we have...

That said, scottt does have a good point, this offense deserves a shot... it is the flipside of 2007. That pitching staff deserved a shot.

There is nothing wrong with Gibby and he was better than whoever that manager of the team is that plays down the street from my lab but something nags at me in that I don't believe he'll ever lead the Jays to anything. AA has done a lot right but the Gibby hire shows a weakness in his managerial style - I don't know if he can work with a big disagreeable personality (but I don't k ow that he can't either).

"especially since IMO we have plenty of youth to trade from without selling the farm:"

Yet when trading for the guy(s) that presumably will put into the playoffs, you're trading the cream of the crop of the farm, such that your left with a farm of lottery tickets at best afterwards.

If they want to make a deal they won't be asking for Stroman in the last week of July... but don't fall prey to the endowment effect. Stroman for Hamels + cash would be a good deal for the Jays.

Hamels is not a rental and I'd be okay to a degree with it even though I think Stroman is better going forward. They said Stroman was being asked for rentals, which implies Cueto. You can not accept that deal unless Cueto signs with us.

"Yet when trading for the guy(s) that presumably will put into the playoffs, you're trading the cream of the crop of the farm, such that your left with a farm of lottery tickets at best afterwards."

maybe 1 or 2 top guys, but not more than that.

"....other teams are asking the Jays for Stroman even for rentals...."

That's just a standard negotiating tactic: begin by asking for the moon.  It makes your follow-up proposal seem more reasonable by comparison, even if it isn't.  Nobody should criticize the Jays on the basis of what other teams request in their initial demand. 

stroman for cueto was just a really dumb article by sullivan.

Stroman was comparably as good as Cueto last year, as a rookie.

you can tell gibby really hope schultz earns the setup role.

so do i.

The general perception (correct or not) seems to be that Hamels's public comments on whether he would approve a trade to Toronto are misleading. Multiple sources have indicated that Hamels in fact would not approve such a trade.

Also, nice win by the Jays tonight. Beating divisional rivals will be key in the second half.

we have direct quotes from hamels about the jays.

everything elss is rumors.

"Forget Phillies lefty Cole Hamels -- many in the industry doubt that he would approve a trade to the Jays, despite his recent comments about being open-minded even to teams on his no-trade list." -Ken Rosenthal, 9 July 2015

"Toronto has Leake and Samardzija high on its list, as well as Cueto, with the knowledge that Hamels won't come" -Jon Heyman, 17 July 2015

Would be nice if we can sweep the Rays. I don't think they will make the playoffs and will finish in fourth. They have good pitching but their bullpen is more patchwork than ours and they're the only team that can make our pitching look good. Archer is very good, but one pitcher does not make a team.

quotes > rumours

As for what players say publicly, remember when Melky said, "I stay" after the 2014 season? Grain of salt, etc.

Reputable reporters like Rosenthal > fanboys

I'm still in the "stand pat" crowd. Just trim the fat off the roster (Navarro, Colabello, etc), and see if the existing talent can do it. If they can't, then retool in the winter. The playoffs, whether it be the division or wild card, is still a long shot at this point, especially with the questionable pitching staff. They'll pretty much need Cueto and another comparable arm in order to have a pitching staff good enough to make a real run. That would gut the entire system without a guarantee of a playoff spot. Too risky.

It's going to be a long two weeks if this sort of discussion appears in each thread.

Why don't we take another approach. AA offers Norris around the league, who is the best starter the Jays can get? Who is the best starter they can get if they can only take on $10M/year for no more than two?

Repeat with Sanchez and Pompey. Assume all teams are willing to sell... (if they Jays are willing to deal, I would hope they are open to both selling and buying).

Question 2 - Shields is waived in August, do you claim him if a reliable source tells you that San Diego will just let him go like the Jays did with Rios?

Not my question.

"reputable writers" = rumor mongerers

The Hutch  Jekyll and Hyde show continues.

Rosenthal normally has very good sources within the game. Few people have his connections. He's not someone sitting in his parent's basement.

Half of the pessimists are complaining that AA is going to make a big trade. The other half of the pessimists are complaining that he won't make any trade at all. Apparently any outcome will be terrible.

It certainly seems like this, doesn't it? On the other hand, I think there might be a view among some in the "stand pat" crowd who think there's a good chance of winning the pennant through internal solutions -- that Sanchez, Norris, Stroman, and Pompey offer viable solutions to this year's problems, and you might as well give it a try. I'd put myself in such a camp at any rate, though I'd qualify my stand-patness by saying it depends what the cost is. I've mentioned Shields as a potential target only because he shouldn't require a top prospect, or even any prospect, given the contract.

I think AA would be wise to stay away from Cinci and Philly. They both have what are considered to be the worst front offices in baseball and have an inflated sense of what their guys are worth. Ideally AA makes a deal (if any) with a team like the A's, White Sox or Padres for a more affordable choice.

Sounds like the good GMs are the bad GMs, and the bad GMs are the good GMs. It's a mixed up, mumbled up, shook up world. Well, in any case, all reports are that Pat Gillick's really the one in charge in Philly now. He knows how to rebuild, and I'm sure is keen to get something done.

Let's say it's toward the end of July and the Blue Jays playoff odds are similar to what they are now. And in tonight's game, as we enter the 9th, they're trailing 12-0. Their opponent? Actually, they don't know, because their opponent took the field tonight in a mystery uniform -- solid grey but for a giant X across the jersey. Plus they're wearing masks! On top of all that, the Jays have lost their schedules, they've lost their internet connections, and they have no way of figuring out who these guys are. In other words, this is some random team.

But this random team has an offer to make: "You give us Norris and Pompey, and we'll let you win the game." Who here takes that offer?

Because that's kind of what a trade for Cueto (or someone similar) amounts to. It's one win.

Stroman was comparably as good as Cueto last year, as a rookie.

From the FanGraphs piece on a possible Stroman for Cueto et al. trade (people seem to be forgetting the et al. part), I thought this was an interesting comment on Stroman's value. As background for those unfamiliar with all the details involved, the FanGraphs WAR is based on a pitcher's FIP, which doesn't attempt to normalize his home run rate -- unlike xFIP. Here's the comment:

.... Furthermore, Stroman wasn’t actually worth three wins last season. As I have complained elsewhere, fWAR does a smart thing by trying to eliminate luck on balls in play while doing a dumb thing by not trying to eliminate lucks on balls that did or did not go over the fence. Stroman’s FIP looked particularly good because he only gave up a home run on 6.5% of his fly-balls. That’s despite having a slightly below average infield fly rate when IFFB% is the only thing that correlates strongly with HR/FB%.

Using xFIP would have listed Stroman with ~2.3 WAR, which would pro-rate to ~3.5 WAR if we assumed that he stayed healthy and just as effective over 200 innings. That’s very good yet clearly not elite. Similarly, Marcus’ 7.65 K/9 is very good but not elite....

Regardless of our pitching situation I'd be tempted to go after Jay Bruce. Lefty, middle of the order bat with a decent defensive rep. Controllable for two more seasons.

It's a bit like the Donaldson deal IMO. We may not have pitching this year, but pretty soon this team is likely going to have lots of it- even assuming prospect attrition. I'd like to still have hitting if Bautista or Encarnacion turn into pumpkins.

Jay Bruce makes 10M. Donaldson makes .5M. It's not the same at all.
We already have Michaels Saunders who makes just short of 3M this year and won't probably see a huge raise in arbitration next year.

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 1h1 hour ago
A rival evaluator places odds of James Shields being dealt before July 31 at 75 to 90 pct.,and thinks SD will move Craig Kimbrel, as well.

This seems to be the type of move that AA would make. Ticks a lot of boxes, including non-rental and ALEast experience. Shields makes a lesser amount this year than the balance of his salary, so it fits into our salary structure with Dickey, Beuhrle and Romero coming off the books next year.

It doesn't excite me, depending on the cost, could be a lot better than the rentals.

The Jays can afford Jay Bruce's salary. The only question is the cost in prospects, as there are at least a few teams hunting for LFs. If the Tigers go into sell mode (unlikely at this point), it could be time for Cespedes for the rest of us. He'd probably be the biggest upgrade Anthopoulos could make to the team. As I've mentioned, adding a LF is a more propitious route than a SP because LF is where we're fielding truly replacement level players. Cespedes alone adds nearly 2 wins, per FanGraphs rest-of-season estimates, which no other player can likely do. Jay Bruce would be one extra win.

"Furthermore, Stroman wasn’t actually worth three wins last season. As I have complained elsewhere, fWAR does a smart thing by trying to eliminate luck on balls in play while doing a dumb thing by not trying to eliminate lucks on balls that did or did not go over the fence. Stroman’s FIP looked particularly good because he only gave up a home run on 6.5% of his fly-balls. That’s despite having a slightly below average infield fly rate when IFFB% is the only thing that correlates strongly with HR/FB%"


bunch of garbage here from sullivan, illustrating why you don't just rewrite stats every time you write an article.

not only did stroman have a better fip than cueto last year, but a better xfip and siera too.

That wasn't from Sullivan but a commenter. Sorry, I should've made that clearer, but... You did read this piece that you're so critical of, did you? In any case, the comment itself wasn't in relation to Cueto. Neither was it dumb. 'Twas interesting. Insightful.

Except that wasn't from Sullivan. That was in the comments. Sullivan's only question marks were injury-based (for obvious reasons).

Because that's kind of what a trade for Cueto (or someone similar) amounts to. It's one win.

I think that might be a bit simplistic, particularly given what happened (or didn't) at last year's trade deadline. I suspect that there would be a seriously negative impact on team morale. Does that matter? I think it will - I can't quantify it, but I think it could have negative consequences both short and long term. Now, that's no reason to sell the farm, but it is a reason to strongly consider moves for at least bullpen help. If it's true that the Jays have $10 million left, they could take all of Papelbon's salary this year. Hopefully that would mean they don't have to offer the superstar prospect package.

Well, you make a good point that a reliever might be the easiest solution for Anthopoulos -- he doesn't have to give up his top prospects and nobody in the clubhouse raises a fuss (maybe). It wouldn't do much to help the team, I don't think, apart from this morale thing, which itself didn't do much for the Tigers and A's last year, but okay -- it's hard to measure. But if that's really a concern, couldn't Anthopoulos just try to manage the situation a little better this year? Maybe having Martin and Donaldson around will make things different. Who knows. In any case, I wouldn't trade Pompey and Norris for one win and a morale boost.

phew. that would have really lowered sullivan in my eyes. and i didn't remember reading that in there anyways.

as for commenters...you're talking about that jblick guy or whatever? his comments were wrong from top to bottom, so I stopped reading them. around where he poopoed the sale/syndergaard comparisons.

Here's the best comps i could find for Stroman. first year as a full-time starter, ages 22-24:

Syndergaard (22): 12gs, 6.1ip/gs, 85era-, 72fip-, 80xfip-, 2.96siera, 5.1war/gs
Sale (23): 29gs, 6.6ip/gs, 72era-, 77fip-, 78xfip-, 3.31siera, 5.0war/gs
Stroman (23): 20gs, 6.0ip/gs, 84era-, 73fip-, 84xfip-, 3.21siera, 4.8war/32g
Gray (23): 10gs, 6.0ip/gs, 73era-, 73fip-, 76xfip-, 3.13siera, 4.5war/32gs
Cole (22): 19gs, 6.2ip/gs, 89era-, 79fip-, 83xfip-, 3.34siera, 4.2war/32gs
Harvey (23): 10gs, 5.9ip/gs, 73era-, 84fip-, 89xfip-, 3.49siera, 3.8war/32gs

that commenter doesn't know what he's talking about.

"because LF is where we're fielding truly replacement level players."

we have TWO slots in the rotation that are BELOW replacement level....and that's NOT including estrada. And ZERO slots that are even above average.

having ONE replacememt level slot in the best lineup in baseball is not really a concern, especially when saunders and pompey should be coming back.

we have TWO slots in the rotation that are BELOW replacement level....and that's NOT including estrada. And ZERO slots that are even above average.

Time to call up (again) Jeff Francis to at least stop this downward trend ?

WAR for starting pitchers over 1/2 a season varies quite a bit with one's measure.   Fangraphs uses FIP and has it in order Hutchison, Buehrle, Estrada, Norris, 0, Dickey, Sanchez.  BBRef uses RA and has it in order Buehrle, Estrada, Sanchez, Norris, Dickey, 0, Hutchison.  If you use a combination of the two (which is probably the best way to do things), you end up with 6 starters above replacement level.  My own view is that the club will gain more by simply installing Pompey as their everyday left-fielder than by acquiring a starter (although it is better to do both if the price is right for a starter). 

I suspect that there would be a seriously negative impact on team morale. Does that matter? I think it will.

Who can predict morale? Maybe nothing short of Cueto will improve morale. This team is at its worse when it sits a few game over .500. Maybe it's just an effect of winning at home and losing on the road. Is that morale related?

Yeah, that's the guy. I don't know what else he was saying, but the particular thing I quoted -- I don't see you disagreeing with that, am I right? That's a sterling list of comps, though, no doubt.

As for this:

we have TWO slots in the rotation that are BELOW replacement level....and that's NOT including estrada.

You're talking about what's happened, not what we can expect from here on out. I went through this in the WWYD thread, but basically the problem is you've got to pick one guy to take out of the rotation. Here are the choices I looked at a week ago (i.e., everyone except Buehrle), along with their rest-of-season fWAR projections. For reference, Cueto's is 1.8.

Dickey 0.5
Estrada 0.5
Hutchison 1.0
Doubront 0.4

Now you've been advocating that we drop Dickey, right? 92-93 says he'd prefer to drop Hutchison. I'm just saying that if you do something like that, the best estimates -- and that's what these are -- say you're only going to get (let's stick with Dickey) a 1.3 WAR advantage. (And that's if you do it today; it'll presumably be less by July 31.) But that's Dickey -- maybe you drop Doubront instead. I mean, you'd definitely drop Doubrant instead, I suppose, but even there the upgrade isn't so great. It's less than what a 2 WAR rest-of-season LF upgrade would give you because Colabello and Carrera really are replacement level (so far and projected).

Now, one thing that weakens my argument is bringing Sanchez into the picture. When I did this a week ago it wasn't certain when he might be back, and I was using Doubrant as the 5th starter. Now it looks like Sanchez will be ready soon, and his rest-of-season projection is 0.1 WAR. So if you think Sanchez deserves the spot more than Doubront and yet is still going to be replacement level himself, then a Cueto upgrade gets you something like a Cespedes upgrade might (probably not quite, but in that range). But is Sanchez the guy to replace? That's the thing. It's easy to figure out who to replace in LF. Making the right choice of starter isn't so easy.

And I acknowledge that if you view the projections as being off in any way, that's going to lead you to different conclusions. I don't personally see Sanchez as replacement level but I'll put that aside. These figures are useful estimators is all.

Oh, yeah, I meant to mention Pompey as well. I agree, Ugylone (and with you, Mike). That should be the first choice. He's not replacement level.

My own view is that the club will gain more by simply installing Pompey as their everyday left-fielder than by acquiring a starter

How about Ezquiel Carrera, Valentia in Toronto; Brad Glenn, Chris Dickerson and others on the Bisons' roster ? Even,  let Luke Scott  play ? The point is to try in-organization option until Saunders is back ?

So taking Mike's rankings under the two systems, we've got:

Hutchison: 1 & 6
Buehrle: 2 & 1
Estrada: 3 & 3
Sanchez: 6 & 3
Norris: 4 & 4
Dickey: 5 & 5

This kind of encapsulates the problem. I mean, who's what?! If there were one clear hole in the rotation then it'd be easy to upgrade. The problem is we've Buehrle and a bunch of guys who are like 4th starters.

If taking the median of TangledUpInBlue combined rakings, we've got:

Hutchison: 3.5
Buehrle: 1.5
Estrada: 3
Sanchez: 4.5
Norris: 4
Dickey: 5

So in essence, the idea of this sentence, "the problem is we've Buehrle and a bunch of guys who are like 4th starters." is comprehensible if Estrada is considered a middle-of-the-order starter.

The funny thing is, if you go by Pyth record (54-38) or Base Runs (51-41), the Jays have had a really good season so far. In other words, the pitching hasn't prevented them from achieving a run differential that should have the team in first place in the division.

I still think it would be useful to add another good-to-great SP and reliever, though (assuming a deal can be made for fair or good value).

Erasmo Ramirez does not look like the same pitcher.  That sharp curve to Smoak was something I had not seen.  Jim Hickey is a helluva pitching coach.

That's not quite accurate, as far as I understood the two sets of rankings. It isn't that Estrada, as a 3, is essentially a middle-of-the-rotation starter. It's that Estrada ranks as the team's third best starter, going forward, under both projection systems and consequently, his combined ranking is "3" (which actually makes him the team's second best starter by combined ranking, given how differently some of the starters project).

If Fangraph's FIP ranking is done on Bisons' pitchers who pitch more than 10 IP,

Barnes, Francis, Guilmet, Perez, Delabar, Bibens-Dirkx, Burke, Tapera, Doubront, Redmond,Schultz, Wolf, Jenkins, Rasmussen, Pineiro, Lawrence, Norris, Copeland, Korecky, Mcfarland, Albers, Sanchez, Coke, Infante, Hynes, Boyd, Castro

Using TangledUpInBlue's combined rakings as reference, that is to say

Sanchez: 6 & 3 or #4.5
Norris: 4 & 4 or #4

So pitchers ranked above Norris is a passable #4 or possible above in the Jays rotation
ranked between Sanchez and Norris is a possible $4: example is Copeland
ranked below Sanchez is a passable #4 or possilble #5: example is Boyd

We know how Copeland and Boyd performed for their few starts in Toronto.

Available pitchers who also ranked above Norris are;

Francis, Perez, Bibens-Dirkx, Burke, Redmond, Wolf, Pineiro, Lawrence

I think it is prudent to say, bring Francis to Toronto again, as he is the only pitcher who started regularly and ranked above Delabar who himself ranked between Buehrle and Estrada.

If Jeff Francis is the answer, then the question is wrong.

Thanks Thomas for pointing out. The important idea of these numbers is as Thomas said, "3 means third best starter going forward", which I think the projective usefulness of the combined ranking by TangledUpInBlue and Mike wants. The Jays need to acquire more pitching; the ranking was supposed to give an idea to a solution.

In other words of Thomas', Sanchez' 4.5 means fourth to fifth best starter going forward; Norris' 4 means fourth. Francis being a possible call-up (again) candidate still holds because he ranks above Sanchez and Norris for Bisons' SP, and Delabar for BlueJays' SP and RP combined.

Of their 74 games in the second half, the the Yankees only play 18 games against teams that entered the break with a winning record. In their first 35 second half games, the Yankees only play 1 such team, the Twins. The Blue Jays are already 6 games behind the Yankees in the loss. The Yankees have won 9 more games than they've lost, a zenith the Blue Jays haven't reached all season. In fact the Blue Jays have never this season won more than 5 games more than they've lost, before slipping back to .500.

Those aren't the circumstances in which I'd start trading away any future potential for a supposed 2015 'solution'. Indeed, all the factors are in place for the Yankees to now open up the gap, not for the Blue Jays to close it. And neither two months of Papelbon and/or Cueto is going to make much of a difference.

Actually, I don't think those numbers from BRef and FanGraphs, which were really from Mike, were projections, but rather the rankings year-to-date. (The numbers I quoted in that longer post were projections.) I'm also pretty comfortable calling Estrada a 4th starter -- a typical 4th starter -- regardless of how he's measured up vis-a-vis the rest of the Jays' staff this year.

Cash again with the same pull of Ramirez that I saw earlier in the season not giving him the "chance to win".  I like. 

One reason to make a trade for Papelbon (even at a $10m cost): to reduce the number of high-leverage opportunities given to Aaron Loup. Or even perhaps to allow the Jays to demote him.

I admit I'm saying this in the heat of the moment, and I haven't bothered to analyze his season beyond the crudest of metrics. All I know is that Loup has caused me more frustration than anyone else in the bullpen this year.

Once again our solid WAR, crappy WPA bullpen performs to expectations. They're really good at holding on to those 7-2 leads.

Is there a reason Tepera was pitching in 2-2 game in the 8th? No way he's better than Hendriks.

John Gibbons is the reason. Manage the Jays, "Can't someone else do it?" "I'M SOMEONE ELSE!"

This may be a tad unfair, but I can't help but wonder what a manager like Cash would be able to do with a team with a +85 run differential over 93 games. Something tells me the team would not be a game under .500.

With Archer pitching tomorrow,  you protect that one run lead like it's the series.

I like what AA has done with three exceptions. The Gomes trade, the Dickey trade and hiring Gibbons.

Well I can certainly say that was a Jays-Rays game.

This may be a tad unfair, but I can't help but wonder what a manager like Cash would be able to do with a team with a +85 run differential over 93 games. Something tells me the team would not be a game under .500.

If we don't make the playoffs, I have this perverse desire to see how high they can get it while staying under .500. I mean, can they end the seaosn 80-82 with like a +135 differential? Is that even possible?

This can't be real life...

Next year they'll probably finish with a 0 run differential and an 88-74 record, and end up missing the playoffs by a game.

Kasi, did you dislike the Gomes trade at the time?  Not sure how you can fault AA for Cleveland catching lightning in a bottle.

Very SSS but Gomes has a 1.9% walk rate in 158 AB's this year. He's putting up a RC+ of 54. His BABIP is .280, so a tad under his career rate but nothing crazy. His power is down as well.

Yeah I didn't like it at the time, but that was more for Aviles. I just didn't agree with giving up two players for Rogers.

"Now you've been advocating that we drop Dickey, right? 92-93 says he'd prefer to drop Hutchison."

I was defending Dickey from the constant detraction (and the labeling of "toast"), not saying the Jays should remove Hutchison from the rotation. I was merely confused about railing on a pitcher who was in the middle of a solid June while the team had only 4 SP, one of whom was the struggling Hutchison. Funny how nary a peep has been said about Dickey since.

Loup's season is completely in context with his career.  He's just given up home runs on 20% of his flyballs, as compared with 10% over his career, and a low of 0% in 2012.  Over his 200 inning major league career, his ERA, FIP and xFIP are within spitting distance of each other in the 3.2-3.4 range. This year, he's actually striking out more batters while walking fewer than his career norms.  That's usually a pretty good ticket. It does surprise me that he has a negative WPA for his career.  Brett Cecil has a fairly similar, but slightly better, level of effectiveness on all measures since he became a reliever in 2013.  Like Loup, his HR/FB in 2015 has been killing him, but over his career, he clocks in a about 3.1-3.2.  He's been a significantly positive WPA guy over his relief career. 

Tepera coming into a tie game late, with Hendriks and Cecil rested and needing work, was strange.  I guess he had a lower ERA than either of them and that was enough.

I sure hope they win tomorrow against Archer. I don't want to be saying that if you play for one win, that's what you get.

I've found Gibbons' managing this series to vacillate between the poor and the bizarre. On the poor side:

1. Taking Hutch out yesterday after 6 and having thrown 85 innings with a 6-2 lead. This was the Genesis of Game 2.

2. Someone mentioned above that the Toronto bullpen is the master of the 7-2 lead. For those looking for a reason for the difference between the Jays' Pythagorean record and their actual one, I think this is it. With a 6-2 or 7-2 lead, Gibbons makes sure at all cost that he gets that win. With a 6-2 lead, Gibbons decided to remove Hutch and go to Shultz, who pitched two innings and thus was unavailable today. I'm not criticizing Gibbons for using Shultz in the 8th after using him in the 7th. In fact, doing the opposite, making unnecessary bullpen changes and cycling threw the pen, has been Giibbons' trademark modus operandi which blows game. But I don't think Shultz should have been in there in the first place, both because Hutch should have allowed to start the 7th and because with a 4 run lead I think others like Cecil, or Hendriks, or even Loup or Tepara, could have been given a shot. Then, to make sure this 4 run lead didn't slip down to a 3 run lead, Osuna was in to pitch the 9th. Instead of having Shultz and Osuna today, Gibbons used them with a 4 run lead and a starter who had allowed only 2 runs in 6 innings on 85 pitches. Those looking for an explanation of Gibbons' extraordinarily poor record against Pythagorus can look here. The 4 and 5 run leads don't dwindle down to 2 or 3, and the one-run games are lost.

And on the bizarre side:

3. Pinch running Valencia. Earlier this year in a game against the Orioles, Toronto had a key run on base and Pillar up at the plate. Showalter moved the infield in, assuming that Gibbons would try and stay out of the double play and bunt. Pillar straightened up to hit, and Showalter looked somewhat surprised but nevertheless moved the infield back. Pillar then grounded into a double play. I don't think Showalter was nearly as surprised as Cash was, when Gibbons, with two out and McGee warming up in the pen, decided to waste Valencia, his best bench hitter against left-handers, in a pinch run situation when it was highly unlikely his spot would come up in the 9th. And I can imagine Cash was more pleased than he was surprised. Bizarre.

I really hope they find a way to beat Chris Archer tomorrow. Because they should be 2-0 so far this series with a game gained against the Yankees.

Not sure how you can fault AA for Cleveland catching lightning in a bottle.

Not sure how much lightning Cleveland actually caught. Gomes' 2013 season looks great metricized, but he only played half a season. He hit 11 home runs which stood out only in metrics, as he had so few at bats. His 2014 season was good, but not great, with a .785 OPS. This year, he has a .500 something OPS and a 50 something OPS+, and has played only 40 games. Overall it's trending more toward 'meh' than lightning. Though I agree that Rogers was a poor return in that trade.

Gomes had a 4.6 fWAR season in 2014. Here are the top 5 catchers in major-league baseball by WAR that year:

Lucroy 6.2
Posey 5.6
Martin 4.9
Gomes 4.6
Mesoraco 4.5

No other catcher had a WAR total of more than 3.2.

I would describe Gomes's 2014 as great, not merely good.

I have not been a fan of Gibbons managing this season. He's made far too many mistakes with the bullpen and playing time in general.

Interesting how Mike and CBDC apply their detailed analysis to the past two games and reach completely opposite conclusions. CBDC does the numbers and concludes that Osuna and Schultz should have been saved for today's game. Implicit in that analysis is the conclusion that Loup shouldn't have been pitching today. Mike runs the numbers and concludes that Loup is perfectly okay, just as good as Cecil and better than Loup's earlier years in some ways. No matter what Gibbons decides to do, fault will be found. Personally in this case I find it significant that Loup is leading the entire team in blown saves. It's AA (and the owners, in terms of payroll), rather than Gibbons, who had the responsibility to build a top-knotch bullpen, and it's still a couple of pitchers short of that.

"It's AA (and the owners, in terms of payroll), rather than Gibbons, who had the responsibility to build a top-knotch bullpen, and it's still a couple of pitchers short of that."

And this I have to disagree with. As much as some have complained about the bullpen and AA's inability to supposedly shore it up. The stats suggest this bullpen is at least league average, it just chokes when the pressure is on. Just like how the pythagorean W-L suggests our actual W-L record should be much better, the fact they are seriously underperforming their suggested metrics falls at the feet of the person leading this team, Gibbons. Whether it's simply bad luck or bad managing, the buck stops with him.

AA has put together a team, even if flawed should be good enough to be leading this division. Gibbons is in charge of making the pieces he's given, to work together and unfortunately hasn't been able to deliver.

it just chokes when the pressure is on

Yeah, that's the problem, and there's nothing Gibbons can do about that. I mean, he's tried moving guys into different roles and whatever, but they all screw it up when the game's on the line. Every last one of them. Well, OK, Osuna's been good for the most part. But the rest of them -- good grief.

Now, where I agree Gibbons can be blamed, and this goes back to last year, is with the whole protecting a 5-run lead thing. I don't recall him being like that prior to 2014, but with the early bullpen blowups last year he seemed (to me) to react by panicking in games when he shouldn't. Things like warming up Cecil with a 7-run lead with one out in the 9th (something like that) after a guy gets on base.

That said, are we really at the point where we're going to take him to task for leaving Bo Schultz unavailable for tonight's game? Bo Schultz? With Osuna now the closer, there are four guys -- Cecil, Loup, Hendriks, and Schultz -- that I'd feel pretty comfortable with in close games, and three of them were available in Saturday's game. As, by the way, was Osuna, who only threw 9 pitches the night before. Not having Bo Schultz wasn't the problem. As I mentioned during the game, the problem was going to Tepera, who should be the lowest ranking member of the pen, in a tie game in the 8th, when Hendriks and Cecil, and Delabar for that matter, were still available -- not to mention Osuna.

For a chart and an explanation on how historically unlucky the Jays' pen has been, you can look here:

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2015/7/13/8945405/the-2015-bullpen-when-things-go-wrong-at-the-worst-time

How many losing seasons (2016-?) are people willing to trade for to get a 10% chance of winning the World Series on October 1st? I would go with two.

My instinct here is to say zero. Build a sustained winner. Use the '80s as a model.

Whether it's simply bad luck or bad managing, the buck stops with him.

Yeah, well, you can't just lump those two things together and shrug your shoulders. You'll make a lot of poor decisions in life (assuming the managerial power to do so) by not understanding the role of luck/randomness.

It was strange to see Cito come out of retirement to take the job from Gibbons.
It was weird to see a guy with no managing experience be poached from a rival organization to become the new manager at the end of lengthy hiring process and see that guy, predictably, return to that rival organization and win the World Series, in a way that none could have predicted.
It was bizarre to see Gibbons come out of exile and resume where he left, the baseball equivalent of Groundhog Day.

As far as I'm concerned the Blue jays are managed out of the Twilight Zone.

Chris Archer has been hit hard in two of his last three starts, allowing a total of five home runs in those two starts (he was excellent against Toronto in the start before that). Today might be a good day for the Jays to capitalize on opportunities early. If Archer (FIP 2.63) gets into a groove, it could be a long day for the Jays. As they say about the good ones, get them early, or don't get them at all.

As far as I'm concerned the Blue jays are managed out of the Twilight Zone.

Not much different with the coaches. The Jays have hit well for years yet spun through four hitting coaches. Meanwhile, their pitching has underperformed for at least the last three years and Walker's job seems secure. There are some extenuating circumstances for the former, but only some.

Now on a more positive note, excellent starts by Hutch and Dickey after the break hopefully bode well for the next two months. They must produce for us to have a hope, regardless of what AA and Gibbons do. At least a good start.

Meanwhile, their pitching has underperformed for at least the last three years and Walker's job seems secure.

Maybe he's good.

Colabello is back in left-field today. 

Sorry.

"Yeah, well, you can't just lump those two things together and shrug your shoulders. You'll make a lot of poor decisions in life (assuming the managerial power to do so) by not understanding the role of luck/randomness."

What's the saying? It's better to be lucky than good? Sadly Gibbons has no luck or if he has, it's the unlucky kind. Point being quite simple, even though I actually like Gibbons and probably most of the decisions he makes a few of the decisions he makes.
1) Seemingly putting offence before defence
2) Bullpen management, where he doesn't trust certain players to the point they get rusty and where he stays with someone too long because of what they've done in the past.

Maybe he's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. But he's been at the helm for what over 6 years now? Could argue that in his first go around he didn't have the players to compete with the juggernauts of the East. But the last 3 seasons, he's had the players, but still hasn't been able to lead them. So change for the sake of a change, a new fresh voice leading the team may be what's needed.

I'd hate to see AA go and he's built this franchise (MLB team and farm system) to be competitive. But if he won't let Gibbons go, then sadly AA should go too.

and DISAGREE WITH a few of the decisions he makes

I was defending Dickey from the constant detraction (and the labeling of "toast"), not saying the Jays should remove Hutchison from the rotation. I was merely confused about railing on a pitcher who was in the middle of a solid June while the team had only 4 SP, one of whom was the struggling Hutchison. Funny how nary a peep has been said about Dickey since.

OK, 92-93, gotcha. Now for a peep about Dickey. After his start on May 21 (and in comments ever since), Dickey credited Pete Walker with making an important adjustment to his delivery. That start was decent (4 ER in 9 IP), the next one bad (5 ER in 5 IP), and then June started -- and you're right, he's been very good since then. But to avoid the cherry-picking issue, let's look at his starts before and since May 21st:

Before: 8 GS, 50 IP, 23K/19BB, 5.76 ERA, .259/.330/.476 (.806 OPS)
Since: 11 GS, 70.2 IP, 51K/26BB, 3.95 ERA, .252/.328/.414 (.741 OPS)

So definitely a good improvement. The other interesting thing in looking at his numbers is that he's only allowed two unearned runs all season. Wild pitches and passed balls haven't been an issue.

I'm not sure if the praise for Kevin Cash is warranted. But it might be -- I do trust the Rays more than anyone else to make the right hire. So I took a quick look at some numbers. On the year, the Rays are 10-13 in one-run games. Hmm. On the other hand (the more important hand), they're outperforming their Pyth. run differential this year by +2. On the third and most important hand, the BaseRuns hand, they're outperforming their expected W/L record by +1.

OK, now what about their historical performance? Using Baseball Reference's Pyth. info going back to 2006 (I don't think BaseRuns is available on the interwebs other than the current year), which was the year Joe Maddon was hired, this is what you get:

2006: -4
2007: -1
2008: +5
2009: -2
2010: 0
2011: 0
2012: -5
2013: +5
2014: -2

2006-2014: -4
2006-2015: -2

Below average, though slightly so. And a pretty random walk, as they say.

Colabello is back in left-field today.

At this point, why not? I've come round on this one the more I think about it and the worse Carrera looks. You've got two bad options but if you factor in the offensive cascading I've mentioned a few times, the replacement level player with the great bat and terrible glove probably makes the most sense.

"Instead of having Shultz and Osuna today, Gibbons used them with a 4 run lead and a starter who had allowed only 2 runs in 6 innings on 85 pitches. Those looking for an explanation of Gibbons' extraordinarily poor record against Pythagorus can look here."

It's unbelievable that people can lay Saturday's loss at Gibbons' feet and tie it into the bullpen usage Friday night. In case anybody didn't notice, the Blue Jays were off the entire week. Yes, Bo Schultz threw 28 pitches on Friday, but I'm fairly certain that a few times in his career he has thrown on back to back evenings, and that there's no issue doing so when he's coming off 4 days of complete rest. Osuna threw a whopping total of 9 pitches. When exactly should he have been used yesterday, in the 8th? Are we saying that because Bo Schultz, who most hadn't heard of until 2015, wasn't around for the 7th of a 1 run game that Gibbons doesn't know how to run a bullpen? As CF said, the guy really can't win. He used some fresh players in a 4 run game to keep it clean, and at worst only burned Bo Schultz for the next game (which I don't think he did). That the relievers he brought in Saturday couldn't get the job done shouldn't be tied back to Friday evening's game. If you want to hate on Gibbons for using Loup and Tepera over Cecil and Hendriks that's fine, but let's not pretend like 4 run leads in the 7th are automatic wins for the Blue Jays.

TangledUpInBlue - Sunday, July 19 2015 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#305359) #
Meanwhile, their pitching has underperformed for at least the last three years and Walker's job seems secure.

Maybe he's good.

Sure. And maybe Gibbons is good too. But there is less and less objective evidence to support either.

"only burned Bo Schultz for the next game (which I don't think he did). "

Except in his post game interview, he did say because he used Schultz for 2 innings on Friday, he wasn't available yesterday.

I have no issue with Gibbons usage of the BP on Friday, minor nitpick would be using Osuna. Usage on Saturday left a bit to be desired IMO, I just don't like Loup facing righties in a close game at this time.

I really wanna start calling Chris Colabello "Kramer."

Levels, Jerry! 200 Levels!

The starting pitchers are playing like they're at home.

It's nice to see Smoak at first and Cola replaced late game. Would be nice to have someone who plays a better left field than Carrera.

Even when Colabello doesn't hit a HR, he's still a useful player in the lineup. In his last game, he had good at-bats with a walk, a sacrifice and an RBI.  (And no errors in the field.)  At this point, he's far superior to Carrera with the bat, and he's one of the more reliable Jays when they need a sacrifice or something to advance the runner.  And he finds ways to get on base.   (Statistically the difference between Colabello and Carrera is 240 points of OPS.)  If you're willing to gamble a little on the defence -- i.e. if you're willing to take the chance that anything hit to LF is of the routine variety, which he can usually handle -- the offensive difference is huge.  Colabello is just a good guy to have in the lineup when you're trying to manufacture runs.  Rather than accusing Gibbons of stupidity for putting Colabello into the lineup, I think I can understand the rationale, even though there's no ideal choice in the matter -- until Pompey or Saunders prove themselves ready, which might be within the next few weeks.

But there is less and less objective evidence to support either.

Less and less?! There's very little "evidence" either way, and never has been. For us, that is -- we haven't the foggiest clue how good Pete Walker is. For the Jays, though -- they actually know something, and they seem to like him. So I've outsourced my opinion on this one. Because what else are you gonna do?

Should the Jays be trying to negotiate a contract extension with Estrada?  Is there any chance that he's beginning to exceed his career norms and reaching a new level of excellence?  Or am I over-reacting to several superb games this year?  He's been one of the best Jays pitchers since he became a starter at the beginning of May.  With the likely loss of Buehrle and maybe Dickey after this season, Estrada might be a relatively cheap replacement, even on a multi-year contract.  Sure, you can assume that Stroman and Norris and Sanchez and Hutchison and maybe even Hoffman or Osuna are in the rotation next year, but do you want to rely entirely on kids?  Estrada would be a good veteran to help stabilize the rotation.

Game scores today:  Archer 64, Estrada 81.

Man, how good has Estrada been for the last month? There's definitely a chance that this rotation rights itself. Buehrles gonna buehrles, dickey and hutch should be better and Estrada may be a legit starter... In which case one of Norris \ Sanchez could complete the rotation. We just have to hold on till the reinforcements arrive? Or is that wishful thinking?

Jerry: "He looks up and...Joe Siddall calls it!" Nice moment.

TUIB, Colabello is probably quite a bit worse than a replacement level ballplayer playing in left-field against a RHP (and he's actually quite a good player as a 1B/DH against LHP).  I am glad, however, that Britney Spears worked her magic on him.

I know that Osuna was loosening, but is it really necessary to bring him in here?

Tomorrow's an off day.  The Jays don't need Osuna again until late Tuesday night at the earliest.  And Osuna has only thrown 9 pitches since July 11.  Why not give him the 9th today?  It won't wear him down, and it won't make him unavailable in the next game.   Lock down the wins, especially against the Rays.

I love watching Osuna pitch. Kid is gonna be a stud starter.

"I know that Osuna was loosening, but is it really necessary to bring him in here?"

Yes. Once he's warm, you use him. You should be more worried about the number of times he gets up and down than his total number of innings at the end of the year.

"Should the Jays be trying to negotiate a contract extension with Estrada? Or am I over-reacting to several superb games this year?

No, and yes. There's tremendous uncertainty surrounding the team and the front office heading into 2016. The last thing AA should be looking to do is lock up mid-rotation starters. That being said, the Lind for Estrada trade, a much maligned move over the winter, was one that I supported from the start and one that has worked out very well for the Jays and their needs. Adam Lind is doing his usual thing laying waste to right-handed pitching, but he still can't field or run, though I'm impressed he's stayed healthy this long. AA did a very good job plugging an innings hole and opening up the DH spot at the same time, and saved some money doing so. I remember people saying Estrada doesn't deserve an arbitration offer.

I recall hearing that Estrada added a cutter this season, and since he's been throwing it, he's turned a corner (so far). I recall the same thing for Marcus Stroman last season. Added the cutter and then become the stud that he was. Who's responsible for showing these guys the pitch? Pretty impressive if it's the same person.

"....I remember people saying Estrada doesn't deserve an arbitration offer...."

Still ranks as one of the lowest points in Bauxite off-season analysis.

Per reporters on twitter, Sanchez is pitching out of the pen when he comes back up.

Gibbons has just announced that Sanchez will join the Jays bullpen after one more appearance (in relief) for the Bisons.

It doesn't solve the rotation problem, but it probably solves the bullpen problem.  Who gets demoted to make room for him?  Tepera or Loup or Delabar?  Has to be one of those three, I think.  (All three have options.)

I am opposed to "locking down the wins" as a philosophy.  As for the warming, I don't really know how far along Osuna was. 

It was strange because they did start warming Delabar up in the bottom of the eighth after Bautista homered, as though Gibbons was intending to bring him in.  My sense was that the decision to bring in Osuna rather than Delabar was more "locking down the win" than  "Osuna's already warm anyways" but I don't know that.

The decision to put Sanchez in the bullpen would also seem to imply that AA is on the verge of acquiring a starter by trade.   Let's not count our chickens prematurely, but what other logical explanation could there be?

I notice this Kevin Cash likes to sac bunt with a man on second. Did it last night and again today. What do all you Kevin Cash fans think of that? He did it with Kiermaier today, who's a league-average hitter vs. RHP. Not a smart move, and not one John Gibbons would make.

Re. Colabello, That's a good point, Mike. He might be. But I'd still play him over Carrera. Carrera actually has reverse splits (this year and career) that make him a really bad option vs. RHP. He has a wRC+ of 68 this year vs. RHPs, whereas Colabello (entering the game) is at 126. I think it makes sense to do exactly what Gibbons did today -- start Colabello and take him out in the 6th when you've got a lead.

"....My sense was that the decision to bring in Osuna rather than Delabar was more "locking down the win"....."

You're not even going to respond to the point that Osuna had only thrown 9 pitches since July 11 and won't be needed for another 54 hours at the earliest and therefore his 14 pitches today did not have any negative consequences for him or the Jays?

Let's not count our chickens prematurely, but what other logical explanation could there be?

Norris?

Two thumbs up for the decision to bring Sanchez up to the pen.  It does not necessarily mean that they have acquired or are on the cusp of acquiring another starter.  They may simply believe, as I do, that Sanchez is likely to be effective out of the pen and unlikely to be effective out of the rotation over the last 70 games of the season.  Or they may believe that he can be transitioned into the major league rotation from the major league pen. 

I know that Osuna was loosening, but is it really necessary to bring him in here?

I think so. He'd still be throwing in the background in case Delabar puts a runner or two on, and how much less strain on the arm is that compared to just pitching the inning himself?

Don't like the policy of having Osuna warming to start any 8th inning where the team leads by 3 runs or less. There is precedent for this - it's the way Gibbons always played it with B.J. Ryan in 2006, coming in for four-out saves behind Justin Speier. In 2007 he didn't have the opportunity, due to Ryan's back injury.

If your team has no power and Estrada has his command, you're toast. I'm not sure if there are any AL playoff teams that perfectly match that description, other than Tampa, but that should play well for the next two months. Unlike Carlos Villanueva he does it with a changeup not a slider, so there's probably less concern his arm will fall off (or, at least, when he eventually gets bombed twice in a row it'll freak people out less). I'm starting to think Navarro, while not the best pitch framer in the world, deserves some props for his pitch calling. Whimsical forward thinking. It seems to suit non-power pitchers very well. The Buehrle seal of approval probably counts for something.

Are the Mariners useless or what?

"In fact, doing the opposite, making unnecessary bullpen changes and cycling threw the pen, has been Giibbons' trademark modus operandi which blows game."

It's a nice narrative except of course that isn't the case at all if I read the stats correctly. According to Fangraphs the Jays have the fourth fewest appearances out of the bullpen in MLB, while at the same time logging the fifth most innings per appearance. The bullpen lapping the field in poor high leverage performances is what has blown games this season.

TUIB, starting Colabello over Carrera in left-field against RHP repeatedly because he's not as far below replacement level is a sure sign that Pompey ought to be here. It's not necessarily Gibbons' problem, but I have a sense from Pompey's rapid departure here that Gibbons' input was involved (as it was last year with Pillar). 

I think AA acquires a SP, maybe 2. Whom it will be depends on what Matt Boyd and Miguel Castro get him. Gut says those are the 2 that move. I think it's either Mat Latos or Andrew Cashner. I won't be surprised if he acquires another bat as well.

Should the Jays be trying to negotiate a contract extension with Estrada?  Is there any chance that he's beginning to exceed his career norms and reaching a new level of excellence?

I believe that once you start the last year of a contract you don't bother the player until the year is over.

Who can tell the effort and focus he puts in the game and his preparation? Extension talks would be distracting. I'm sure he feels very good about himself right now and a contract won't improve that unless he's given the moon and what would be the motivation for the team in that?

Here are the numbers vs. RHPs this year (Colabello's updated for today):

Colabello: .314/.360/.472
Carrera: .239/.294/.312

Looking at that, it doesn't even make sense for Carrera to be on the team. He hits lefties better than righties, though obviously not as well as Colabello, Valencia, etc. I mean, as long as you could find a speedy defensive OF, you'd send him down.

The Jays have negotiated mid-season contract extensions with a number of high-profile players in the past.  It's handled by the agent, and it doesn't have to be a distraction at all.

Lind has been worth 2.1 WAR in just over half a season. Entering today's game, Estrada has been worth 0.9 WAR (which will go up after today's stellar start).

The trade has worked out well for the Jays, but it has worked out pretty well for the Brewers, too. Also, one reason why people argued in favour of trading Lind was that he couldn't stay healthy. Not only has he stayed healthy this year, he has generated more value per game/PA than he did last year.

The salary difference between the two of them isn't that great, either. It looks like each team got what it wanted out of the trade, more or less.

TUIB, starting Colabello over Carrera in left-field against RHP repeatedly because he's not as far below replacement level is a sure sign that Pompey ought to be here.

Yep.

I agree, Alex, that Navarro has done a nice job when catching Estrada.  There were some very nice frames today in particular.

If you're going to bring on Osuna anyway, why get Delabar up in a hurry when Bautista homers? I guess the thinking is that if the score goes to 6-0 or something, you will bring in Delabar.

Changing gears for a second, have I mentioned how much I am looking forward to seeing Osuna in the rotation next season? Assuming for a moment that the Jays stand pat at the deadline (not advocating that), you could look at a rotation that contains some assortment of Stroman, Hutchison, Osuna, Sanchez, Norris etc. As maddening as I find Hutchison at times, that would be a fun rotation to watch.

"I guess the thinking is that if the score goes to 6-0 or something, you will bring in Delabar."

That was my thinking Mike. Given the horrific meltdowns witnessed this season, it doesn't shock me at all that Gibbons does not feel safe with a 4-run lead.

According to Fangraphs the Jays have the fourth fewest appearances out of the bullpen in MLB, while at the same time logging the fifth most innings per appearance.

Which is interesting given that there is no long man.
Are there any long men left anywhere?

How do the Jays rank with inherited runners? I'm pretty sure they're not good a holding them but how often does Gibby make pitching changes with runners on base, compared to the league?

Well, he probably doesn't feel safe with a 4 run lead bringing in a maybe-warm Delabar. I think if he had been completely warmed up it could have been a different story. He still looked in 'getting loose' mode to me at the end of the inning, anyway.

I won't mind renting Gerardo Parra for the stretch - shouldn't cost a ton as I don't think the Brewers will offer him a QO - he's having a nice year and can play all 3 outfield positions (usually a plus defender though the metrics are negative this year).

I love Pompey's potential as much as anyone, but he hasn't even proven that he can hit AAA pitching, let alone major-league pitching.  You can't bring him up as a platoon player or late-inning defensive replacement, because it damages his development.  He needs to be playing every day, every inning, and that means Buffalo.  His OPS this season has been .563 in Buffalo and .601 in the majors, and that's over 200 plate appearances.  Are you really going to bench a hitter with a major-league .880 OPS (Colabello) to make room for someone who struggles at the AAA level?  Pompey's superior defence doesn't make up for the loss of 300 points of OPS.  Let him prove himself in Buffalo, let him gain full confidence in his hitting, and then promote him.  (It was clear from watching his demeanor in spring training that confidence was a big problem for Pompey.  Don't promote him to fail again.)

Pompey is 0-for-4 today.   He's not exactly banging down the door to the majors. 

Here's a note of caution on Estrada. As of this very minute, he has an ERA of 3.22 and an XFIP of 4.51. That's a big difference, with no previous track record of being able to better his XFIP (the opposite, actually). Partly this is due to a HR/FB% this year of 8.0% (prior to today) versus a career rate of 11.5%.

Anthopoulos is probably searching for a LF in the trade market, so that could also explain why Pompey's not up yet.

The thing about confidence we can never know what affects it for a given player... I don't know that showing faith in Pompey's ability to play (at least) the last three innings of every game going forward would not increase Pompey's confidence. It seems to me to be a no more or less plausible narrative than the one presented. Showing a little faith can do wonders for confidence of anyone in any field of work.

China Fan, if you believe AAA is detrimental to his confidence,why not advocate to send him further down?


Colabello is what he is and I am happy he is succeeding, that said there is a very good reason he was pulled today. The current situation will work until it doesn't and personally I would rather see Pompey develop in MLB and if he fails, he fails.

I wonder if Estrada is reaping that elusive Dickey Effect that we talked about so much when he was acquired.  Maybe in the end a softer tosser was a better follow because of the closer similarities of the pitching speed.

CF fan wrote: The decision to put Sanchez in the bullpen would also seem to imply that AA is on the verge of acquiring a starter by trade. Let's not count our chickens prematurely, but what other logical explanation could there be?


I don't think it has anything to do with a trade. The logical conclusion is that he can help a lot sooner as a reliever than a starter as he needs less buildup.

A tweet:

Dalton Pompey's line drive up the middle with the bases loaded give the Bisons a 4-3 win in the 12th.

So he's now 4-for-13 (.308) since the promotion to Buffalo.

Anthopoulos is probably searching for a LF in the trade market, so that could also explain why Pompey's not up yet.

Any update on Saunders? He should be up for rehab any day now.

nice series win, but annoying to beat archer and odorizzi and then blown the sweep vs. ramirez. ah well.

all sorts of great discussions in this thread this weekend. hard to keep up.

1. I don't have much more faith in sanchez as an RP than delabar/schultz/Tepera, for the record. hopefully i'm wrong. At least sanchez isn't homer prone like the other rp. and i'm guessing tepera goes down.

2. bullpen this series threw 7ip of 2.56er and 12.9k/9, and still managed to blow a game.

3. I'm not one to take solace in partial splits like the ones 92-93 uses for Dickey, but let's see if we can make dickey look as good as possible using them:


First 10gs: 6.4ip/gs, 5.77era, 5.62fip, 4.73xfip
Last 9gs: 6.1ip/gs, 3.49era, 4.26fip, 4.72xfip

so yeah you can see a big improvement there. the question remains whether you feel ckmfortable ignoring the first 10gs, especially given the identical xfips. also given the xfips and how his overal 4.70era and 4.98fip lineup with it, whether we should expect him to continue putting up his awful overall line or his recent better line going forward.

we also have to note that line isn't all that great for a partial split. even bad pitchers have kind of decent stretches like that during a season. to see an impressive partial season split wd can look at Buehrle since the same point in the season: 7.1ip/gs, 1.55era, 3.03fip, 3.37xfip.

so it's nice that dickey's had better success recently, though it's nothing to write home about and that 4.73xfip is still scary bad.


4. we may have to stop complaining about Colabello. he's still a ways back from qualifying from the leaderboards but he's now up to 227pa and amongst all AL hitters with 150+pa he ties for 10th - with Bautista - in wRC+. He has quite literally been an elite bat for us.

and what's been even more impressive is that he's maintained this level even with a pretty normal babip the last month or two.

though the real genius move at this point might be to move Osuna into the rotation and hope sanche can replace him as closer.

I may be the last resident of Carrera Island but until the Jays come to their senses on Pompey, or the big shoe drops, or whatever, he should be starting in left against all RHP. I am absolutely certain that he is a better fielder than he's shown. Defensive stats, like RBI, are a largely a function of opportunity. He's had a bunch of balls hit just beyond the outer reaches of his range, which may not be quite as extensive as you'd hope from someone with his wheels but is still likely above-average for a cornerman. Selling one's soul for diving catches and perceived concomitant job security is a flawed strategy and he must know this by now. And what do we expect Colabello to hit against RHP the rest of the way, anyway? Certainly nowhere near enough to carry his glove in left? (And nobody actually thinks Carrera's going to have reverse splits going forward, right? 86-point OPS split in the normal direction in the minors, since 2011.)

Anyway, one hopes this dead horse will decompose soon enough. I love Colabello. Complaining about his presence in the lineup is no fun. Nice homer today.

No, Google, quite the opposite.

oh i almost forgot:

Career as SP

M.Estrada: 85gs, 5.8ip/gs, 4.09era, 4.14fip, 3.91xfip, 3.70siera, 5.8war, 2.2war/32gs

despite his ups and downs i think he is what he is over the longhaul - a perfectly serviceable #4sp, a step up from a fungible #5 guy.

and for comparison:

M.Estrada: 85gs, 5.8ip/gs, 4.09era, 4.14fip, 3.91xfip, 3.70siera, 5.8war, 2.2war/32gs
J.A.Happ: 157gs, 5.7ip/gs, 4.21era, 4.28fip, 4.29xfip, 4.27siera, 9.0war, 1.8war/32gs

The problem with comparing Estrada and Happ is that it inevitably leads to comparisons of the 2015 seasons of Adam Lind and Michael Saunders.... (And yes, I still support both of those trades, and I know that the Saunders-Lind comparison could be totally different in 2016 or even in September 2015.)

So the Toronto Raptors are favored to easily win the East again this coming Season. All the Canadian Hockey Teams have done reasonably well, so watching could be fun again this coming Season. Welcome to the McDavid Years. Fan are picking apart every Blue Jay at bat, play or decision ad nauseam. But that basically normal around here.

So my question is? "Did anything new happen?"

"So he's now 4-for-13 (.308) since the promotion to Buffalo."

.467obp & no strikeouts yet.

Watching Canada-USA streaming on CBC. I thought I'd never have to listen to Warren Sawkiw again :-(

On the other hand, today I was happy to learn that Stubby Clapp is married to Chastity Clapp.

How do you get the Clapp if you're practising Chastity ?

I also learned he's Stubby Clapp III.

I should have known that I would be hoist with my own petard, and deservedly so, if I wandered into the thickets of extremely small-sample sizes on Dalton Pompey.  (How's that for a mixed metaphor?)  Yes, he's done fine in the past three games in Buffalo.  I'd like to see him sustain that for a few weeks before I expose him to the majors again.  He's still only 22 and he's only had 37 games at the AAA level.  Let him sustain his success a little longer than three games.  But yes, I share the optimism that he may have turned a corner and may be ready soon.  I just think it should be slightly later than what the "he's ready now" school of thought is suggesting.

Marc Hulet posted on BBB about selling the farm for rentals, in fact mostly for rentals who are up this year. He basically wants us to sell all our prospects for as many players as possible who can help. Basically load up this year and next in order to go into rebuild when Bautista/EEs contracts expire. Normally Hulet is a smart guy, but I can't agree with his rationale here. How often has going all in on rentals actually brought a team the WS or anything more than just a playoff berth? Oh yeah, never.

Also add that with our pitching staff selling for anything less than the division is dumb. I would not want to go into a one game wild card game with our "ace" comparing how we match up with other teams. At least he did say to keep Stroman though so he's got one thing right.

I suggested something along the same lines as Hulet, but the acquired players would be players under control through next year.

Then after next year, sell whatever assets possible on the big league roster. Tanking was not a good strategy under the old CBA, but is now and will be even more so with the upcoming international draft.

Sustained success sounds great, but all it's been yielding is sustained mediocrity. I'd rather boom and bust,

Warren Sawkiw, SHUT UP about yourself.

I agree hyperbole if you're going to go all in you need to focus on a two year plan for players who would leave after next season. Does us no good if we sell the farm and miss it this year and have nothing left for next.

On the Aaron Sanchez question, after reading some of the comments in this thread, I think I need to back down a little too.  Maybe his move to the bullpen doesn't necessarily foreshadow a trade.  But I can see both sides of the argument.  On the one hand, Gibbons and AA had always said that Sanchez would return to the majors as a starter, so they were blatantly contradicting themselves today by announcing his switch back to the bullpen.  It's impossible to believe that they are satisfied with Felix Doubront as the 5th starter.  Doubront is a lottery ticket who cannot be counted upon at this point. Maybe he'll bounce back from the 6-run first inning of his last game, but how can anyone count on that as a likelihood?   I can see the Jays being willing to take their chances with Dickey/Buehrle/Hutch/Estrada for the rest of the season, but they MUST know that the 5th starter is still a black hole and they can't go forward with Doubront as their main hope.  Sanchez is the obvious solution, if we're judging him on the extraordinary results of his last 7 games as a starter in May and early June. But how much rehab time would he need to build up the strength he needs to work as a full starter again?  Can the Jays afford to wait for that?  Maybe they decided to put him in the bullpen immediately because otherwise they'd have to wait three weeks to get him back in the rotation.

So what's the plan for the 5th starter now?  If it's not a trade, the Jays must have a couple of ideas in mind.  Norris is one option.  On paper, he doesn't look quite ready.  (Four walks in 6 innings in his last game, for example, and six runs in 4.2 innings in his previous outing.)  Maybe the Jays scouts and coaches have seen enough positive signs to convince them that he's ready?  Maybe they see him as the long-term future and they are determined to go with him at this point?  I don't see the evidence of readiness, but they are the ones who are watching him closely, not me.

Is there a surprise plan in existence?  Maybe the Jays are still believers in Boyd?  I don't know, but I know that they can't be counting on Doubront as a mainstay for the second half, unless he surprises us significantly.

The other point, as some Bauxites have noted, is that Sanchez just strengthens the bullpen so much.  He routinely pitched 2 innings in many of his outings last year.  Osuna and Schultz are capable of the same.  If the back end of your bullpen is those three -- each capable of multiple innings -- then you can instead deploy Cecil and Loup and Hendriks for short situational stints in the middle innings, and you can drop the weakest of the current seven (probably Tepera).  The bullpen is massively strengthened.  It could be literally a game-changer for the Jays.  And it allows AA to concentrate his entire trade hunt on a starting pitcher -- probably one who is controlled beyond 2015.  He may or may not succeed in his quest, but it does make sense to allow him to focus his attention on one position, rather than scattering his attention between the rotation and bullpen.

Sanchez to the bullpen makes sense on many levels.  I hope it foreshadows a trade for a starter, but even if it doesn't, it could be a winning move.

this week has seen some of the craziest jays rumour-mongering i've ever seen.

trade stroman? it was a more defensible idea in the pre-season...maybe. but now it maybe buys you 5 - 12 starts depending on if he comes back...why bother?

trade the farm for rentals? it's a team at roughly 500 at mid-season, even adding Clayton Kershaw at this juncture isn't a guarantee they make the playoffs.

anyone notice bautista's injury flared up again pre-break? any chance he goes down for good and can't play in the post-season?

i am okay with them rolling with what they've got unless the phillies (or whomever) want to shed salary and aren't looking for blue chippers in return. or if colabello or smoak would return a decent middle reliever

First 10gs: 6.4ip/gs, 5.77era, 5.62fip, 4.73xfip Last 9gs: 6.1ip/gs, 3.49era, 4.26fip, 4.72xfip

so yeah you can see a big improvement there. the question remains whether you feel ckmfortable ignoring the first 10gs, especially given the identical xfips.

--

I hadn't noticed this earlier, but if you use May 21, the date of his adjustment, as the cut-off, rather than the beginning of June, you do get an improvement in his xFIP. Which makes sense, as that's when his K-rate started to take off.

Before May 21: 5.76 ERA, 5.11 xFIP
Since May 21: 3.95 ERA, 4.46 xFIP

It ain't exactly Syndergaardesque but it's been a solid performance. Moreover, the ERA and xFIP since May 21 show the normal half-run or so difference we should expect between the two figures. Normal for Dickey, that is, as a knuckleballer gets weaker contact than other pitchers.

Pure speculation, but my guess is that Gibbons was the driving force behind the Sanchez decision; that he watched another blow-up on Saturday and Anthopoulos was finally forced to give in to his request for bullpen help. The move was announced the next day. Managers always want a better bullpen, and smart GMs know that relievers are overpriced (in money and/or prospects) on the trade market. So this was the solution.

The problem is it leaves a gaping hole in the rotation, which is a much more important issue. From the start of May to his injury, Sanchez was terrific. Now that did come with some red flags -- a 2.91 ERA but a 4.52 xFIP -- but I'd still take my chances with Sanchez over Felix Doubront.

trade the farm for rentals? it's a team at roughly 500 at mid-season, even adding Clayton Kershaw at this juncture isn't a guarantee they make the playoffs.

Maybe not, but hopefully you would trade literally anybody if you could get Kershaw.

So we need two Front-Line Starters, another Top Reliever and a Top Outfielder. So what's the problem, someone's always cleaning house?

The WAR numbers are true but if you look at it from the Jays perspective - you replace Lind with Smoak/Cola which is a downgrade but not that much (if you disregard Cola's defense in LF under the assumption the Jays had that he wouldn't play there) and Estrada's spot would either go to a scuffling Norris or one of the other AAA pitchers who got pummeled when called up to the Jays.

So Marc responded to his post. Basically said that since AA did the Markins/Mets trades that he's forced to do this. Talk about idiocy. That's the same reasoning that leads habitual gamblers to losing their life's savings. No you can actually grow as a gm and realize buy titles doesn't work and focus on building from within with occasional smart trades, aka St. Louis.

Sanchez or Castro might cover the reliever slot, the LF might be covered by Saunders and/or Pompey.  That leaves 2 starters.  Norris might be one of them.

Thus all focus shoudl be on finding an ace from somewhere.  Philly has been the #1 spot as they have an expensive but good ace available.  In the "I know I'm dreaming but Josh Donaldson..." category of anything can happen, Seattle is in last place again could they be crazy enough to trade King Felix and what would you give for him (signed for 4 more years plus option for 5th at over $25 per)

i didn't mean to re hash the lind and happ trades, only meant to show that estrada has a solid career as a starting pitcher (likely better than a guy many here were comfortble paying $7m to) so we shouldn't be too worried about flukiness. the career numbers were th3 focus, not this year. if Happ had been injured this year it wouldn't make the trade any better or worse.

but even if we did, smoak has been every bit as good as lind his year anyways, and Bautista's injury would have limited Lind's playing time just as much as it did smoak's.

and i'm glad we have saunders, because right now we need an LF much more than a 1B.

I don't mind doing a trade one a prospect and a couple b prospects to buy an ace or 2/3 controllable through next year. Not a sell the farm system to go all in for this year like he's suggesting.

the whole "emptying the farm thing" is funny to me. Back when we made the marlins and Dickey trades people said we were emptying the system, but our U-25 group is better now than it was then.

So Marc responded to his post. Basically said that since AA did the Markins/Mets trades that he's forced to do this. Talk about idiocy. That's the same reasoning that leads habitual gamblers to losing their life's savings. No you can actually grow as a gm and realize buy titles doesn't work and focus on building from within with occasional smart trades, aka St. Louis.

Kasi, i only partially agree with Hullet -but sometimes teams do buy titles - the sox and the yanks certainly did over the past 20 years, repeatedly.  the SL model is the ideal - smart, patient management, with home grown talent and key big-ticket acquisitions from outside the ord.  but even they traded shelby miller to get jason heyward and jordan walden, which doesn't look good this season or going forward. 

The Giants have won 3 of the last 5 and they are an expensive team with plenty of talent acquired from FA or trades without a great crop of minor league talent on deck to replace their aging core

outside of st. louis, i don't really see the teams that support your argument?  which world series winners are you referring to?  who was the last truly home grown championship team? 

also, IMO, AA has grown significantly as a GM and has been one of the top ten in the game for several years now. 

I think getting one legit top rotation guy is a must. not completely sold we need two. Of course, I'm a Hutch and fipdream believer.

"I am absolutely certain that he is a better fielder than he's shown. Defensive stats, like RBI, are a largely a function of opportunity."

I don't know Alex, I think Carrera looks even worse in person than he does on the television, and that he's shown nothing to warrant being a 4th OF on an MLB club looking for speed and defense from that spot.

Then again I watched Pillar in bits and pieces the previous two seasons and never saw an elite defensive CF in there, so who knows.

Jer the Giants did some trades yes but they never went in on rentals. Plenty of their talent as well was developed within. I'm not saying that signing FAs and trading prospects for stars can't win titles. I'm saying that trade deadline deals to bump a team over the top or make a WS contender out of a fringe playoff team doesn't work. Or at least we haven't seen any proof of it yet.

p.s. if we're gonna do the favorable splits thing for Dickey, we may as well do the same for Hutch.

Hutch:

First 6gs: 5.2ip/gs, 7.47era, 5.10fip, 4.67xfip
Last 13gs: 5.6ip/gs, 4.21era, 3.17fip, 3.51xfip

those last 13gs take him all the way back to his 2nd start of may. and only twice in those 13gs has be failed to go at least 5ip or given up more than 4er.

if we're comfortable saying Dickey's not a problem based on his last 10 starts or so, shouldn't we be comfortable with hutch, too?

If Estrada's next 2 months are as good as his last, would u give him the QO, try to sign him longer term....or just let him walk. An unexpected issue to be sure.

Comfort seems like a bit of a stretch for either pitcher. On a relative scale, I'm more trusting of Dickey being able to make it through a lineup 3 times than Hutchison at this point. Of course, that's damning with faint praise.

I would say 2x with Dickey. I am not that comfortable with the 3rd time. Neither is Gibby imo.

I think the Jays #1 issue is the #5 starter. Next is a veteran arm in Bullpen. (I do not see a need in offense. In fact, I would be willing to trade some away to get pitching.

My first thought is Sanchez, but he is now in the bullpen, which is great because the bullpen looks alot better now (Still could use a little help). If Castro comes back up someday, I am going to love that bullpen.

I think the asking price for pitching right now in the trade market is too high. I have a feeling we are going to see a #5 starter internally. Specifically, Hoffman. They seem to be very aggressive with him.

shouldn't we be comfortable with hutch, too?

Definitely. He's been BABIPed to death is the main problem -- .350 on the season, which was 2nd worst in MLB last I looked.

BTW, why did Singer become unsigned?

If Estrada's next 2 months are as good as his last, would u give him the QO, try to sign him longer term....or just let him walk. An unexpected issue to be sure.

Unless the guy keeps taking no hitters late into the game, no QO for Estrada.  that's gonna be a 15 million dollar payday, for sure he takes it with his mixed track record, and our chances of getting value are lower than our chances of getting value from Dickey's 11 million dollar option. 

Estrada for Lind was a great trade for us. I'm not sure what we'd do right now with yet another 1B / DH type - we already have Smoak, Encarnacion, Colabello, and a whole wack of other guys who can benefit from being able to DH sometimes. Estrada has been a lot more valuable than 0.9 WAR (1.2 now according to fangraphs), at least from my perspective. Without him (and Buehrle) the pitching would this past month or so would have been a total trainwreck.

I did a little more number crunching on John Gibbons and the one run game, and Pythagorean W/L.  Over Gibbons' 7+ years as a Manager, the Jays are -26 vs. Pythagoras.  During that same time, they are 121-150 in one run games (which corresponds pretty well with the Pythagorean shortfall) and are exactly at .500 overall.  I wondered about the hypothesis that a manager had no impact at all on one-run games, and that one would expect a .500 team to play .500 in one-run games.  Suppose it was a pure coin flip.  What is the probability of 121 or fewer heads?  The answer according to a binomial probability calculator is 4.4%.  That would be very bad luck,  but not remote.

I don't think that is precisely what it is (Gibbons does some things which, in my view, do change the odds to some degree), but it is important to acknowledge the possibility that bad luck is the great majority of the problem.

If you can identify when the game became a 1 run game this can help. I think.

So after 3 IP we are ahead 7-0, final score 8-7 loss. So the other teams pen blanked us. They scored 8. Whose fault is that? We were ahead 7-3 after 7 IP so the pen or someone gave up 5 runs. Does the manager figure into this?

Is this luck or bad something. Unearned runs. Cannot strand inherited runners.

Mike Wilner has an item on Blue Jay bullpen performance with a focus on the horrific slash lines in high leverage situations.  I thought I'd take a little closer look at the three pitchers who have struggled with a significant number of PAs:

Liam Hendriks- 28 PAs, 0 walks, 10 strikeouts, 1 double, 1 home run, .674 BABIP (!) and a .429/.429/.517 slash
Aaron Loup- 36 PAs, 1 walk, 5 strikeouts,  3 doubles, 1 triple, .481 BABIP and a .406/.457/.563 slash
Brett Cecil- 31 PAs, 6 walks, 9 strikeouts, 1 home run, a .500 BABIP and a .333/.484/.458 slash

With remotely decent BABIP luck, Hendriks would have had very good numbers and Loup and Cecil would have been decent.  For fun, I checked out the batted ball profile on Hendriks in high leverage situations, 45.5% line drives, 36% ground balls and 18% fly balls.  Only 9% of the balls were hit hard (much fewer than in other situations).   Loup's high BABIP is somewhat explicable because of a high line drive rate and a decent amount of hard contact, but have a look at Cecil's.  In high leverage situations, Cecil has allowed only 8% line drives and 75% ground balls.  He has not been pulled all season long in that situation.  It takes some pretty horrendous luck with that batted ball profile to end up with a .500 BABIP. 

Maybe need to include wild pitches and HBP, unless I'm recalling things poorly.

Wild pitches don't effect slash lines.  Hendriks hasn't hit anyone in high leverage situations.  Cecil has hit one and Loup has hit two.  It's a good point, particularly in relation to Loup.  The two lefties have not helped themselves with their wildness, but their lines were exacerbated significantly by pretty bad BABIP luck.

 Hendriks' luck in high leverage situations has been appalling- the fliners all fall in, half the ground balls either go through or are infield hits and of the two fly-balls he surrenders, one leaves the yard.  Did I mention that he's given up almost no hard contact at all,  in addition to the 10 strikeouts and no walks.  Here's his fangraphs split package.  The high leverage lines are pretty much a tale of woe, and very little of it his own fault. 

Just going by eyesight and recollection, there have been many bloops that have fallen in against Cecil. That bad luck seems to be reflected in the stats.

Estrada for Lind was a great trade for us. I'm not sure what we'd do right now with yet another 1B / DH type - we already have Smoak, Encarnacion, Colabello, and a whole wack of other guys who can benefit from being able to DH sometimes.

Back then Smoak was considered suspect and nobody had heard of Colabello. You're missing Navarro, whom I assumed would have been gone before the start of the season. It worked out well, better than the trade that brought Saunders, but that was a gamble. Estrada was going to be the 7th or 8th starter and ended up 6th because of a PFD incident.