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There's no simple explanation
for anything important any of us do
And yeah, the human tragedy
consists in the necessity
of living with the consequences
under pressure

Blue Jays turn to Marco Estrada to keep their season alive. Again.  It's been done a dozen times before (the 1985 Royals did it twice.)


Revere, lf         Escobar, ss
Donaldson, 3b Zobrist, 2b
Bautista, rf Cain, cf
Encarnacion, dh Hosmer, 1b
Colabello, 1b Morales, dh
Tulowitzki, ss Moustakis, 3b
Navarro, c Perez, c
Pillar, cf Gordon, lf
Goins, 2b Rios, rf
Estrada, p Volquez, p

The Captain said all that needs to be said about this one:

 photo picard.jpg

                                 THE LINE MUST BE DRAWN HERE

ALCS Game 5 - Estrada vs Volquez | 90 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
eudaimon - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#313838) #
Ok boys you've gone this before, more or less.

We're not out of it yet. We just have to pitch well, and hit their starters. Estrada needs to pull another rabbit out of his hat, after which we can turn to Price / Stroman.

I think we have a bit more of an advantage as the series goes on too. KC has great relief pitchers, but the more we see them the more we can hit them. Towards the end of the Rangers series, for example, we were hitting their previously overwhelming RP fairly well. We also hit them fairly well in that four game series earlier in the year.

I guess the opposite is true too, but our hitting (despite KCs success so far this series) is still the best in the league.

finch - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#313839) #
We've got this!
If they can get this one, my gut says game 6 will determine the winner. It'll be all on David Price. I just have that high level of trust in Stroman.
uglyone - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#313840) #
estrada's "luck" ain't running out today.
JB21 - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#313841) #
Price in the pen today. Stro could go Game 6, and then back with Price or Dickie in Game 7.

It's obvious that Gibby only wants to use Estrada, Price, Sanchez, and Osuna. He doesn't trust anyone else, and Hendrick I'm assuming isn't available today.
Jevant - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#313842) #
Here's hoping the Jays bats put enough of a dent early on that Gibbons isn't tempted to go to Price. Losing in Game 6 or 7 is no worse than losing in Game 5. Gotta think Estrada has to be allowed to pitch 3 times through the order (much as I generally don't like going into a game with that assumption).
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#313843) #
Hendrick I'm assuming isn't available today

Speaking of memories of '85.  George just had his 66th birthday. I had forgotten that he left the Cardinals after 1984.

With the day off tomorrow and possible rain in Kansas City, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Osuna and Sanchez go 2 innings each (if necessary).  I would be surprised if Dickey started Game 7; I am pretty sure that it will be Price and Stroman.

John Northey - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#313844) #
If Price is needed today then he might be available for game 7 or they might do Dickey for up to 3 innings and Price next 3, pen for final 3.
JB21 - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#313845) #
I would be surprised if Dickey started Game 7; I am pretty sure that it will be Price and Stroman.

Do you mean Stroman in G6 and Price in G7, or Price/Stroman in G7?

Mike Green - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#313846) #
Courage, my word.

I think that it'll be Price in Game 6 and Stroman in Game 7.  There's no point in bringing 'em back on 3 days rest. 

Magpie - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#313847) #
Gibbons apparently said that if he needed Price out of the pen today, Stroman could start Game 6 on short rest.
Magpie - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#313848) #
Courage, my word.

And if today's game does not go well... we can sing the next line all winter.
mathesond - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#313849) #
One pitch and it's already the beast start of any game so far this series
uglyone - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#313850) #
a clean 1st inning? is that the first all playoffs?
uglyone - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#313851) #
i think i saw the first two off balance swings this series by kc hitters that inning.
Magpie - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#313852) #
Escobar led off the first four games with a triple, a double, and two singles.
uglyone - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#313853) #
and now a hard hit shot goes right at our defender for once. that's refreshing.
uglyone - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#313854) #
JB21 - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#313855) #
Why/how is Volquez throwing 98?
uglyone - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#313856) #
nice to see that homer rattle volquez a bit. the guy is not good enough to do this to us.
Maldoff - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#313857) #
I'm calling it right now - Gibby will use Price at some point in this game.
mathesond - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#313858) #
Estrada's having a nice game.
JB21 - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#313859) #
I don't think he will, I hope he doesn't need to anyways.

Essentially no difference between Estrada's start and Price's last start. Do all the people that wanted to Pull Price pull Estrada here?
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#313860) #
We really need to win a low scoring game for a change.
pubster - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#313861) #
Good point JB21.

I say pull Estrada.

Bring in Syndergaard.
JB21 - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#313862) #
pubster that made me lol

what an AB by Joey
JB21 - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#313863) #
what an AB by EE
JB21 - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#313864) #
mathesond - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#313865) #
I really, really hope Price is sitting down and will not be used this game
JB21 - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#313866) #
Please tell me this is Price's side.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#313867) #
I second that, and yet he's throwing in the pen. Why ???
scottt - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#313868) #
What a contract year for Estrada!
JohnL - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#313869) #
Estrada could be part of a free agent tag team with Navarro.
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#313870) #
I'm going to Kansas City
Kansas City here I come

Excellent performance by Marco Jackson, er Estrada.
uglyone - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#313871) #
in the words of gibby - Wow, Marco, Wow.

now all we need is for Price and Stroman to be Price and Stroman and we've got this.
China fan - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#313872) #
Brilliant victory!  Complete domination of the Royals, which really has to reverse any of the psychological impact of yesterday's humiliation.  Great to see Tulo emerging as one of the top hitters in the lineup.  His bat is crucial.  Great to see that Price wasn't needed.  (Although I'm sure we will still hear fans complaining that the Jays shouldn't have even had him warming up.) The entire bullpen is now fully available for the next game (assuming Loup is back from his family emergency).

The Jays remain a dangerous lineup, with good hitters from top to bottom.  I think we can still see bigger contributions from Bautista, Encarnacion and Martin as the series continues.  If the Jays get good pitching performances in the next two games, they should advance.
hypobole - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#313873) #
Once again Estrada knocks FIP down and kicks sand in it's face.

Nice to see Tulo starting to hit and driving the ball in huge clutch situations. Seemed to start right after I posted he's not a good hitter anymore.
Four Seamer - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#313874) #

Excellent performance by Marco Jackson, er Estrada.

The parallels to that long-ago game 5 were eerie, though I was happy for that 4-spot in the 6th to give the Jays some breathing room.  Good starts are the best solution to bullpen problems, though scoring seven is also a nice touch.  KC is a formidable opponent (especially in their park) but Jays have to feel comfortable rolling Price and Stroman out. 

I am sure the score and situation will dictate, but if Price struggles does Stroman come in with Dickey in reserve for Game 7?  I would think you have to shoot all your bullets in Game 6, if it comes to it. 

China fan - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#313875) #
"....if Price struggles does Stroman come in with Dickey in reserve for Game 7?...."

In that scenario, it could potentially be Dickey and Estrada in Game 7, plus the entire bullpen.
uglyone - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#313876) #
and i just want to praise the hell out of Joey and EE for those 2 walks with Volquez on the ropes. That right there was blue jays baseball. nice to see it work for us finally, just as we finally saw the downside of KC's swing-early-and-often approach.

also was nice to see them burn Herrera again. With us seeing Madson well Herrera becomes much more significant.
China fan - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#313877) #
"....praise the hell out of Joey and EE for those 2 walks...."

One of those balls to Bautista was probably a strike.  But those kinds of calls will balance out over a series.
scottt - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#313878) #
and i just want to praise the hell out of Joey and EE for those 2 walks

I don't think they played anything different. Once the ump calls a strike on a pitch outside, you swing at anything close or you watch a called strike.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#313879) #
I thought the Jays had to win all three games at home to have a chance at winning the series, and taking the last two in KC looks to be a tough assignment, but ... you never know. This team doesn't quit, and if things break right, anything is possible. Also, I love playoff baseball ! ( Except when we lose. )
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#313880) #
It's encouraging that Troy Tulowitzki is heating up. Hitting against familiar pitchers always helps. I don't think anyone has anything to hide from anyone. Fewest mistakes will decide the result from this point on in the Series. As long as everyone does what they are supposed to do, there is an advantage for Toronto.
electric carrot - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#313881) #
I got a feeling we're going to see Dickey on the mound for some of game 7.

China fan - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#313882) #
I hereby retract my earlier comment about the pitches to Bautista in the 6th inning.  Post-game analysis has shown pretty conclusively that all of those pitches were called correctly.
uglyone - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#313883) #
Bullpen Series Update (days off b4 fri in brackets):

Osuna: 2gms, 14pc (1) ----- Davis: 1gms, 20pc (5)
Sanchez: 3gms, 35pc (1) --- Madson: 2gms, 33pc (2)
Lowe: 4gms, 57pc (2) ------ Herrera: 4gms, 44pc (1)
Hendriks: 2gms, 68pc (2) -- Hochevar: 3gms, 30pc (2)
Loup: 2gms, 14pc (5) ------ Duffy: 2gms, 48pc (1)
Hawkins: 2gms, 25pc (2) --- Morales: 2gms, 34pc (2)
Dickey: 1gms, 48pc (2) ---- Young: 1gms, 78pc (2)
Tepera: 1gms, 38pc (2) ---- Medlen: 1gms, 70pc (3)
snider - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#313884) #
Yost mentioned that he couldn't get the umpire's attention for an appeal on Bautista's swing in the 6th because it was too loud.

Home field advantage.
rtcaino - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#313885) #
He also said he is glad they get to play four games at Kauffman.

I'm optimistic with how the starters are lined up. But an extra game at the Dome would be comforting.
John Northey - Wednesday, October 21 2015 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#313886) #
Phew. I keep having a good feeling about this team. Like nothing is impossible. Luckily they keep showing it. Now for the big challenge, Price getting a win as a starter. That streak is faaaar too long (7 starts) for a guy as good as him.

Very, very glad that Sanchez & Osuna totaled just 13 pitches so they both will be very fresh for games 6/7 - I fully expect an inning each in each game for them, assuming there is a game 7.
Vulg - Thursday, October 22 2015 @ 01:59 AM EDT (#313887) #
Yost mentioned that he couldn't get the umpire's attention for an appeal on Bautista's swing in the 6th because it was too loud. Home field advantage.

Nobody can convince me home field doesn't mean something after Texas' historic case of the yips in game 5. Still, I'm hopeful that Price and Stro can get this done.
ayjackson - Thursday, October 22 2015 @ 07:45 AM EDT (#313888) #
I saw the conclusive evidence that the pitch to Jbau was a ball. I believe it was from Brooks Baseball Pitch fx. It also showed that the pitch that hit JD in the elbow was in the strike zone and less than three feet off the ground... so I'm a bit sceptical.

However, other research confirmed that a pitch in that location is called a strike only 46% of the time and I suspect it is more for fastballs and less for breaking pitches. We all know the strike zone is round.
ayjackson - Thursday, October 22 2015 @ 07:49 AM EDT (#313889) #
If we make it to the show, I'd like Hutch to draw in for Tempera. I think he could be really effective in short bursts against the other league.
Jonny German - Thursday, October 22 2015 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#313890) #
Jeff Sullivan at FanGraphs has a very good article detailing how the pitch that Jose took for the walk was the absolute definition of a borderline pitch that could get called either way.
Mike Green - Thursday, October 22 2015 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#313891) #
A propos of nothing, I saw an Australian band called Oh Pep last night.  The (female) singer introduced the backing band as Liam #1 (on bass and wearing a Blue Jays cap) and Liam #2 (on drums capless).  Perhaps a better omen for Hendriks than Taylor Swift coming to play.
Mike Green - Thursday, October 22 2015 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#313892) #
A couple of words about Price.  He had reverse platoon splits in 2015, and didn't do so well after 100 pitches. 
jerjapan - Thursday, October 22 2015 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#313893) #
So was that the best starting performance in Jays postseason history?  It's certainly the best I can think of off the top of my head.  All season I've been dismissive of the idea of Estrada getting a QO but I think he may have just earned one. 

Interesting article about Osuna and young relievers in general at Fangraphs.  The key paragraph:

the research done by Bill Petti and Jeff Zimmerman on aging curves, which found that relievers age much more rapidly than starters. Their skills begin to atrophy almost immediately upon their arrival in the big leagues, and the decline shows up across virtually every aspect of pitching. Strikeouts, walks, velocity, you name it.

The article is just looking at comps, no explanation.  Does anyone round here have one?  Only 3 reliever comps cleared 10 WAR, Huston Street, Jonathan Broxton and Francisco rodriguez as the leader with 16.6 career to date.  3 relievers come starters also topped 10 with Chris Sale the clear leader.  Based on these comps, my guess is that the best relievers end up starting and that Osuna will follow this path.
JB21 - Thursday, October 22 2015 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#313894) #
My guess (and hope) is that Osuna is in the starting rotation in 2016.
rtcaino - Thursday, October 22 2015 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#313895) #
It seems the first play-off start in franchise history was the best.
Grimlock - Thursday, October 22 2015 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#313896) #
Jimmy Key, Game 4 of the 1992 World Series, is in that conversation as well.
Dave Till - Thursday, October 22 2015 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#313897) #
This game, more than any other I've seen, turned on the umpire's interpretation of the strike zone.

In the early innings, the home plate umpire was giving strikes just off the outside edge of the plate against the Jays' big boppers. It got to the point where the network commentator was saying that the hitters were going to have to adjust to that, or they'd be going back to the dugout all game. But, for some reason, in the middle innings, the umpire adjusted his strike zone to match the actual plate. This didn't affect Estrada as much, because his strength is changing speeds. But Volquez was thrown off when some of the pitches he was getting called strikes were now being (properly) called balls.

The Bautista at-bat against Volquez showed me what baseball is like when a really really good pitcher is facing a really really good hitter. Volquez kept throwing great pitches, and Joey Bats kept handling them.

I was going to link to the Fangraphs article on the final pitch if it hadn't already been linked to. Basically, nobody did anything wrong: Volquez made a great pitch, Bautista showed great judgment in taking it, and the umpire can't be faulted either way on his call. The margin of victory is often vanishingly small when the quality of play is this high.

It's pretty clear now that Marco Estrada is going to become a very rich man after this season - after those performances, lots of people are going to want to throw lots of money at him. The TV announcers were saying that his wife likes it in Toronto, but he is obviously going to try to collect as much money as he can (and who can blame him?). He'll probably want to go wherever Navarro is going next year. From the Jays' perspective, the absolute worst is that they are going to get a high draft pick for Adam Lind, if you map it all out - and they would have taken that in 2014.
jerjapan - Thursday, October 22 2015 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#313898) #
Checking back on the box scores, Key's game in 92 was pretty similar to Estrada's and was a classic Key type outing - he was such a pleasure to watch. 

85 was just before my time, but Stieb's game 1 does seem to have been the best Jay's start in playoff history.  Still my all-time fave Jay, but I really did miss his glory years by not becoming a real fan till 87-88.

I could see Estrada being more interested in where he revived his career (TO) than who was catching him (Navarro).  Has this ever happened before - a battery choosing a FA location together or one half following the other?
uglyone - Thursday, October 22 2015 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#313899) #
looks like this was the best elimination game start in jays history, at least.
Mike Green - Thursday, October 22 2015 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#313900) #
The October 22 birthday group is a pretty impressive lot:

C-    Bill Carrigan
1B- Jimmie Foxx
2B- Robinson Cano
SS- Sam Bohne
3B-Michael Barrett
LF- Gerald Young
CF- Harry the Hat Walker
RF-Ichiro Suzuki

Bench- Jamie Quirk (C), Al Myers (middle IF), Bobby Mitchell (OF), Lou Klein (utility IF)

SP- Wilbur Wood
SP- Johnny Morrison
SP- Jumbo Elliott
SP- Kit Carsey
SP- Ariel Prieto
RP- Cecil Upshaw
RP- Darren O'Day
RP- Hector Carrasco
RP- Oscar Jones
RP- Frank DiPino

Carrigan manages the club, as well, and was a succesful player-manager at the tail end of his career.  Michael Barrett was well-known as an Expo catcher but played third base for his first full season.  He wasn't very good there defensively. but he could hit at least. 

Mylegacy - Thursday, October 22 2015 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#313901) #
Osuna to start in 16?

At MOST we've nine games left this year. At

Like Billy Beane - I see the postseason as a crap shoot. I understand how gruesome it is to construct a team for a 162 game marathon only to see it's place in history decided by a series of short sprints: a possible 1 game, a five game, and two seven games winner takes all series. No wonder Billy doesn't even want to watch the games live. In fact I don't watch the games live. I tape them them. IF we win I watch it all - IF we lose I watch selected sections. If I want several hours of torture at my age I just go visit my sister and listen to her repeat the stories she's been telling me for the past decade. Talk about gruesome.

So I can't help but ALWAYS be thinking of next year. In a sport where we get delirious when we sign a 16 year old who we wont see for half a decade - I can't not look forward always... (is that even English?)

So - Osuna in 2016. Osuna, he of 69 innings in 2015 (at age 20) - is he going to give us 200 innings in 16? 150? 20 starts? Perhaps. BUT - there is no way he or Sanchez (92 innings in 15) will give us a 200 + innings middle of the rotation horse for the marathon. Just can't see it. As I've said before the BEST we could get from them is if we piggybacked them as a duo and between them they gave us 33 starts, 220 innings(ish). That MIGHT get us through 16 with one rotation spot covered.

We'll have Stroman, Dickey, Osuna/Sanchez, Hutchison and ????. Five starters will not get it done. Even IF the fifth one is Estrada or Price. I just don't see any depth in the organization to give us a sixth, seventh guy WHEN he'll be needed at some point. And IF we did that with Osuna and Sanchez we'd have to completely re-do the back end of our bullpen. We'd need starters AND a Closer and Set-up man (unless Cecil can be the Closer or Set-up guy in which case we'd need a great 7th inning guy like Cecil was this year). IF Rogers will give AA $40 to $60 large - perhaps it can be bought. IF - Rogers ponies up some very serious dosh. We'll see. I've me doubts about Rogers...

As to signing Estrada - he's be INSANE to sign with us. Put this guy in the NL - in say - Dodgers spacious park - and he'd be a demi-god. Here in TO, in NASA's best earth to the moon launching site, he'd be a hold-your-breath-every-pitch kinda guy. WHY would he put himself through that? I wouldn't IF I had a choice - and Marco has a choice - a LOT of choice this off-season. As to Price - would the Price be right? Would Price be right? Too many questions, too many Loonies on what might just be turning into a crap shoot all on his own.

So here we are. On the verge of setting a WORLD RECORD for wins in elimination games that can never be beat! Or...

Fortunately, I have the "Or" covered - thanks to an occasional glass of single malt between now and Spring Training to help me relive the Gory or forget the pain. Gotta love the Scots, they know how to help you forget and remember - all with the same drug. Just depends on the dose...

John Northey - Thursday, October 22 2015 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#313914) #
Yeah, this has been tons of fun and I suspect next year will either be more of the same or time to pay the piper. I trust AA will figure out how to fill all the slots.

His first challenge is rotation and 3 free agents. Price will be pricey, Estrada unstable (great postseason, solid regular but a year ago was a non-tender possibility), Buehrle might be retired or going close to home. Other options - Safe to say KC won't be signing Cueto, Wei-Yin Chen probably will walk away from Baltimore - Both are solid pitchers, cheaper than Price, tempting targets. Of course with AA trades are always possible, in fact likely. Who is close? Taylor Cole, Mike Lee (due to age has to make it quick), Shane Dawson could pull off the A+ to majors leap (heck, the Jays did it with 2 guys this year). Not really a ton of guys who are still here really. Free agents might be the only realistic route to get quality starters to add to Stroman/Dickey/Hutchison unless Halladay wants to come back from retirement.
vw_fan17 - Thursday, October 22 2015 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#313915) #
Sanchez will probably be asked to start again.

Getting more creative with possible trades:
-trade some of Revere/Saunders (assuming Pillar stays in CF, and Pompey gets LF) and/or Smoak/Colabello for a middling starter? They're not MVP-calibre, but they're not exactly chopped liver either. If we trade Smoak/Cola, then we keep one of Revere/Saunders, and move Bautista to 1B/DH to rotate with Edwin.

Really creative:
-trade Tulo + one surplus OF to Colorado for a decent starter + Reyes (he seems lost there) and then flip Reyes for a reliever? We have Travis coming back at 2B, and Goins slides into SS. Defense stays great, bit of downgrade on offense, but Travis hit better than Tulo has so far, so not that much.
Kasi - Thursday, October 22 2015 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#313916) #
They can't trade Tulo. When that trade happened it triggered a full no trade clause on his contract. Plus why would he want Reyes back? Just be happy we've washed our hands of his contract.
vw_fan17 - Thursday, October 22 2015 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#313917) #
Thanks, Kasi. Not saying they want Reyes - I said flip him for a reliever. Just saying, if D. Travis comes back 100%, we have a surplus of infield defensive talent. Not sure Goins will want to be a supersub..
Vulg - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 01:36 AM EDT (#313918) #
Osuna to start in 16?

I think so. He has the combination of command and stuff that should allow him to go deeper into games. Sanchez, at this stage in his career, only has the latter. I'm excited by the prospect of Osuna as a starter.

If Rogers doesn't ante up after what has been a storybook run this season, there has to be some fan backlash, no? I'm really hopeful for a $40M+ bump in payroll. Not exhibiting that willingness now, with the current core, should lead to serious re-evaluation about how to build a contender for the long-run that will likely have to include a much larger ration of cheap, homegrown talent that emerges relatively together.
uglyone - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 02:28 AM EDT (#313919) #
Goins at 27 has finally established himself as a legit backup. This is not a reason to trade Troy Tulowitzki, imo.

I read somewhere that jays revenue is up 40% this year, entirely due to post-deadline surge. I think it's safe to say they'll pony up some money for pitching this offseason.
uglyone - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 02:31 AM EDT (#313920) #
and for me Osuna is in the rotation next year. sanchez and hutch should get another shot there too.

I'm still very iffy on the dickey option, but i'm leaning towards giving Estrada the QO. he might even be the first to ever accept it. I don't think i want him on a multiyear deal though.
ISLAND BOY - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 07:01 AM EDT (#313921) #
I think the first order of business should be to sign Alex Anthopoulos to a new 5 year contract.
Mike Green - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 08:02 AM EDT (#313922) #
I think that the first order of business is to win Game 6 of the ALCS, the second order is to win Game 7...2016 can wait.
scottt - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#313923) #
Hutch will get another chance in the rotation for sure.  He just needs to tweak something.
Sanchez could go most of the way, if his pitch count is kept low.
Osuna could do what Sanchez did this year, start in the rotation and move back to the pen mid-year.
So that gives you Stroman, Dickie, Hutch, Sanchez, Osuna and just about no depth.
I suppose you can try loading Buffalo with pitching vets, but it's pretty hard to win like that.
Adding another starter seems like a must, but that will probably means moving someone to the pen.

I think AA will do one of those trades where you give something to get something.
Toronto has too many outfielders and probably too many relievers to fit in the pen.

It should be an interesting winter.

John Northey - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#313924) #
Has there been a dull one since AA came?
2009-10: Halladay trade
2010-11: Marcum for Lawrie, sent EE to Oakland, then got him back, Wells trade
2011-2: no 'wows', traded for Fraser, Ben Francisco, Jeff Mathis,Sergio Santos, drafted Stroman that season
2012-3: Gomes for Rogers, the Miami trade, Dickey trade
2013-4: OK this was a dull one
2014-5: Donaldson trade, Gose-Travis deal, Russell Martin, etc.
christaylor - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#313926) #
Missing on of AA's clunkers - Francisco for Napoli in 2010-11. Wrong sort of wow, but a notable one, I think. AA has been a good fit for the org. Improving a .500 club that wasn't a .500 talent-level club at the deadline was very savvy.
jerjapan - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#313927) #
For sure offseasons are interesting under AA John. 

We have roughly $100 in salary commitments going into next year assuming buyouts, arb raises and no non-tenders.  We seem stacked everywhere aside from the rotation which could lose 3 key pieces.  With all that salary space and our depleted minor leagues, it seems like FA is now a must.  I personally hope we resign Price and I'd think long and hard about a QO for both Buehrle (before his fade I thought he was a lock) and Estrada (who very well may want to stay with the team that has seen him pitch at his best).  If Price hasn't been sold on TO with our successes, there are lots of solid starters on the market to go after. 

Ugly, I still disagree with you on Dickey's option, he's been a lock all year in my mind, and that dreadful last start doesn't overshadow his strong second half, and the uptick in knuckler velocity that accompanied it.

Gotta think both Osuna and Sanchez audition for the rotation, with one at least likely to stick.  We may not have established quality in the pen, but we sure have lots of intriguing possibilities for the back of the depth chart.  Fringey prospects / big leaguers like Delebar, Schultz, Tepera, Jenkins, Girodo, McFarland, Danny Barnes, Ben Rowen, Pat Venditte and whatever minor league FAs / waiver guys AA picks up could get a spot and one might even turn into this year's mark lowe.  we have plenty of space on the 40 man with all the trades.  so we've got Cecil, one of Sanchez / Osuna, Hendricks, Loup and three AAAA guys.  Not great, but a reasonable starting point.

Sign two quality rotation arms - Price and Estrada or their equivalents - and this team is just as stacked next year as this year,( if not more so with Stroman, Saunders and Travis back).  Let's say those two arms cost $40-45 million / season, we are right around $145 million for the year, less than we are paying right now ($150 millian on baseball ref) and with the uptick in fan interest and playoff revenue.  2017 is the big transition year with Bautista,EE, Dickey, Cecil, Saunders and Smoak all FAs.

JB21 - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#313929) #
I think that the first order of business is to win Game 6 of the ALCS, the second order is to win Game 7...2016 can wait.

I agree, 1000%. This is my bad, I brought up the Osuna should be the rotation in 2016 argument. Let's focus on 2015, shall we.

John Northey - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#313930) #
Agreed JB21. Just with an offday speculation about the offseason becomes fun. I mean, how much can we talk about for todays game beyond 'need Price to pitch well' and 'need the offense to be there'. Game 7 (if today goes well) will be 'need Stroman to do well' and 'need offense to be there'. The only real debate is with pen usage. Do you use Dickey as a long man if needed or do you use someone else? Hendriks did OK in that role, Tepera should be glued to the bench, Sanchez/Osuna for 8/9th innings is a lock. Lowe also mixed in there if needed for 7th. Hawkins should be glued to the bench as well. Estrada is there if needed for game 7 for an inning or two.
uglyone - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#313931) #
i just needed something to talk about to calm my nerves.
uglyone - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#313932) #
i wonder if navarro would re-sign as a backup.

do we want estrada without him?
uglyone - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#313933) #
good news - the forecast for this evening in KC is 21 degrees and humid. not the cold they had the first 2gms. they do forecast showers before the end of the game, though.
Dave Till - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#313934) #
It's fun to talk about the off-season, even if we're not there yet!

What strikes me is how much position player depth there is, and that AA or Shapiro or whoever has some decisions to make. Here's the list:

C: Martin, Navarro
1B/DH: EE, Colabello, Smoak
2B/SS: Tulowitzki, Goins, Travis, Pennington
3B: The Bringer Of Rain
OF: Revere, Pillar, Bautista, Pompey, Saunders

All of those guys except for Pennington could probably start for some team if healthy (except for Pennington, and he can do double duty as the last guy out of the bullpen :-)).

You'd have to think that one or two of those guys might be moved for pitching, if the Jays don't re-sign everybody. A clever idea would be to wait until Estrada signs, and then offer Navarro to whoever signs him.
JB21 - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#313935) #
and then offer Navarro to whoever signs him.

Navarro is a FA.

JB21 - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#313936) #
It's actually pretty crazy to think that only Navarro and Pennington are not controlled for 2016.

Martin, EE, Cola, Tulo, Travis, Goins, JD, Pillar, JB, & Pompey are probably all locks to be back for 2016.

I'm also assuming 1 of Revere & Saunders will be back, unless the Jays get creative and have JB play some 1B.

Although they'll probably want to see a healthy Saunders before they assume anything with him.
China fan - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#313937) #
Congrats to Aaron Loup, whose wife had a baby on Wednesday after going into premature labor a few days ago. Baby is 2 pounds, 2 ounces, and in stable condition. 

Loup is back with the team tonight, but Gibbons says he is unlikely to be used in a close ballgame, since he hasn't done much pitching over the past week. 

If the game goes into extra innings, Dickey and Estrada could also potentially be used, Gibbons says.

China fan - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#313938) #
"....I'm also assuming 1 of Revere & Saunders will be back...."

Fan reaction to Ben Revere has gone through three distinct waves since his acquisition.  First week:  "Why did we trade for this guy?  He can't hit at all."  Second week to 10th week: "This guy is fantastic, he should be hitting lead-off, and we gotta keep him next year."  Last two weeks (playoffs): "Why did we trade for this guy? He can't hit at all. He shouldn't be hitting lead-off, put him at the bottom of the lineup."

On balance, I think he's still worth a contract tender for 2016, although -- if Saunders is healthy -- the Jays could end up trading Revere as part of a package to get a starting pitcher.
Magpie - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#313939) #
Great news about Loup. For some reason, I'd just assumed that someone close to him was at death's door, so I'm very glad to hear this.
JB21 - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#313942) #
Quite the circle you just went in CF.

You took my quote, suggested that I was overreacting based on small sample sizes within the season, and then came to the exact same conclusion as I did.

I assume that if Josť is in RF, & Pillar is in CF, one of Revere or Saunders (if healthy) gets the LF position. The Jays could either cycle them all through and give Josť some time at 1B/DH or they move one of Revere/Saunders.

Pompey could start in AAA if they want to get him regular playing time, who knows.
Mike Green - Friday, October 23 2015 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#313943) #
That is great news about Loup. Best of health to mother and child. It may be that pregnancy/labour 8ssues have been on Loup's mind this year. Paraphrasing Yogi, pitching is 45% mental.
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